NYSE:MTG MGIC Investment Q1 2023 Earnings Report $24.06 +0.22 (+0.91%) As of 03:23 PM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast MGIC Investment EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.54Consensus EPS $0.51Beat/MissBeat by +$0.03One Year Ago EPS$0.60MGIC Investment Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$284.00 millionExpected Revenue$291.89 millionBeat/MissMissed by -$7.89 millionYoY Revenue Growth-3.60%MGIC Investment Announcement DetailsQuarterQ1 2023Date5/3/2023TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateThursday, May 4, 2023Conference Call Time10:00AM ETUpcoming EarningsMGIC Investment's Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Wednesday, April 30, 2025, with a conference call scheduled on Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10:00 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)SEC FilingEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by MGIC Investment Q1 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrMay 4, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. At the end of today's presentation, we will have a question and answer session. I will now turn the conference over to Diana Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:38Thank you, Jewel. Good morning and welcome everyone. Thank you for your interest in MGIC Investment Corporation. Joining me on the call today to discuss our results for the Q1 are Tim Mackey, Chief Executive Officer and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer. Our press release, which contains MGIC's 1st quarter financial results, was issued yesterday and is available on our website atmtg.mgic.com under Newsroom includes additional information about our quarterly results that we will refer to during the call. Speaker 100:01:18It also includes a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures. In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable. As a reminder, from time to time, we may post information about underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website. Before getting started today, I want to remind everyone To differ materially from those discussed on the call today are contained in our 8 ks and 10 Q that were also filed yesterday. If we make any forward looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. Speaker 100:02:24No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward looking statements are current at any other time than the time of this call for the issuance of our 8 ks and 10 Q. With that, I will now turn the call over to Tim. Speaker 200:02:39Thanks, Diana, and good morning, everyone. We had a good start to 2023, delivering solid financial results for the Q1. We remain focused on executing our business strategies, our financial strength and flexibility In strong risk management and furtherance of our long term success with the company, we're in an excellent position to serve our customers with quality offerings and solutions, while creating shareholder value. In the quarter, we earned $155,000,000 of net income or $0.53 per share and produced an annualized 13.3 percent return on equity. The main driver of our revenue, our insurance in force, grew by 5 point 4% year over year, ended the quarter at $292,000,000,000 The year over year growth in insurance in force, despite lower volumes of new insurance written, reflects an increased persistency rate as the level of refinance activity in the market remains very low. Speaker 200:03:33Annual persistency increased 82% at the end of the quarter, up from 67% a year ago. In the quarter, we wrote $8,000,000,000 of NIW. We expect our level of NIW in the Q1 as a reflection of a smaller MI origination market, but also reflective of our market position As we took actions in the 3rd and 4th quarters last year, intended to address our views of the risks and uncertainties that I discussed during last quarter's call. Specifically, last quarter we explained that we expected our Q4 market share to likely decrease by a couple of percentage points from the prior quarter. When the industry reported last quarter, that was indeed the case. Speaker 200:04:12We also mentioned in our last calls that our Q1 2023 market share will likely see a larger relative decline from Q4 2022. We continue to believe this is the case. We recognize that the loss of market share would be the potential trade off to the Achieve achieved the returns we believed reflective of the risk in the environment where interest rates had spiked, affordability was stretched and home prices were expected to fall from their peak. As a reminder, the time between taking actions and the resulting NIW is not immediate This pricing leads NIW by a month or 2 on average. So what you see in Q1 NIW is primarily reflection of our views of risk return from late last year. Speaker 200:04:52While we won't comment on our current market position given competitive considerations, in recent months, our view of the market's risk return began to gradually improve. As a result, we expect our reported market share in the 2nd quarter will be higher, reflecting this gradual improvement. Consensus mortgage origination forecast from revised lower interest rates remaining elevated and continued affordability challenges. Although the overall MI origination market opportunity is smaller this year, we expect that with our new business we write combined with higher persistency, Our insurance in force portfolio will remain relatively flat this year. While the affordability issues and high interest rates we have put downward pressure on home prices, The home price declines seen in the last 6 months or so have been more modest than many had forecasted. Speaker 200:05:40I'm cautiously optimistic that home price trends will continue normalizing I believe that a gradual normalization of home prices is healthy for the housing market and overall economy. Taking a look at the credit performance on our insurance portfolio, Our inventory of delinquency notices and our delinquency rate continue to be at historic lows. The credit performance of the 2020 and later books, which makes up approximately 81% of our risk in force, remains strong. We continue to be encouraged by the positive credit trends we are experiencing on our existing insurance portfolio. Our loss ratio was 3% in the quarter. Speaker 200:06:17This reflects reserves established on the new delinquencies reported to us in the quarter, offset by a re estimation of ultimate losses on delinquencies reported to us in prior quarters, which resulted in a favorable loss reserve development again this quarter. In the quarter, we deployed capital to support new business and continue to return meaningful capital to our shareholders through stock repurchases and common stock dividends. During the quarter, we repurchased 5,800,000 shares of common stock for $78,000,000 We paid a quarterly $0.10 per common stock dividend share for $30,000,000 In April, we repurchased Additional 1,700,000 shares of common stock for a total of $24,000,000 and the Board authorized an additional $500,000,000 share repurchase program and a $0.10 per share common stock dividend to be paid on May 25. For the last couple of years, we've been discussing our capital management strategy, which centers on maintaining financial strength and flexibility at both the holding company to create long term value for shareholders and at the operating company to protect our policyholders. We routinely assess and evaluate the level of capital at both companies, including the level of capital that we retain for future deployment versus return to shareholders to position both companies to achieve success in varying environments, both in the near term and the long term. Speaker 200:07:40To that end, earlier this week, MGIC paid a $300,000,000 dividend to the holding company. The dividend enhances the liquidity position of the holding company, enhances the financial flexibility of the company overall. Our capital management strategy also includes a comprehensive reinsurance program, which reduces the volatility of losses in changing economic environments. It provides diversification and flexibility of sources of capital. At the end of the Q1, approximately 85% of our risk in force was covered to some extent by reinsurance transactions And approximately 98% of the risk in force relating to the 2020 through 2022 books was covered to some extent by reinsurance transactions. Speaker 200:08:23With that, let me turn it over to Nathan. Speaker 300:08:26Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim mentioned, we had another strong quarter. We earned $155,000,000 of net income or $0.53 per diluted share compared to $0.54 per diluted share during the Q1 last year. Adjusted net operating income was $0.54 per diluted share compared to $0.60 last year. A detailed reconciliation Of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release. Speaker 300:08:56The results for the Q1 We're reflective of continued strong credit performance, which has led to favorable loss reserve development and resulted in a 3% loss ratio this quarter. Net losses incurred were $6,000,000 in the Q1 compared to negative $19,000,000 in the Q1 last year. Our review and re estimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $41,000,000 of favorable loss reserve development compared to $56,000,000 of favorable loss reserve development during the Q1 last year. The favorable development in the quarter was related to new delinquencies from 2021 prior. As cure rates on those delinquency groups continue to exceed our expectations, We have continued to make favorable adjustments to our ultimate loss expectations. Speaker 300:09:47In the quarter, our delinquency inventory decreased by 6% to 24,800 loans compared to an increase of 2% last quarter. In the quarter, we received 11,300 new delinquency notices compared to $11,900 last quarter and $10,700 in the Q1 last year. Historically, the Q1 was seasonally good for credit So what we saw in the quarter may be a reversion to seasonal trends that were largely disrupted starting in March 2020 with the onset of the COVID-nineteen pandemic. During the quarter, total revenues were $284,000,000 compared to $295,000,000 for the same period last year. Net premiums earned were $242,000,000 in the quarter compared to $255,000,000 for the same period last year. Speaker 300:10:39The decrease in net premium earned is primarily due to a decrease in accelerated single premium cancellation, An increase in ceded premiums and a decrease in our premium yield, offset somewhat by growth in our insurance in force. The in force premium yield was 38.7 basis points in the quarter, down 0.2 basis point from last quarter. The in force portfolio yield reflects the premium rates and effect on our insurance in force and has been declining for some time, but the pace of decline has been slowing in recent quarters. As I mentioned on the call last quarter, we continue to expect the in force premium yield to remain relatively Flat during 2023. Book value per share increased 4.7% during the quarter to $16.57 The unrealized losses in the investment portfolio narrowed by approximately $100,000,000 which benefited the growth in book value per share in the quarter. Speaker 300:11:40Despite the headwind from increased unrealized losses due to changes in interest rates and paying our quarterly shareholder dividend, book value per share increased more than 12% compared to a year ago due to our strong results and accretive share repurchases. While higher interest rates are a headwind for book value per share in the short term, higher interest rates are a long term positive earnings potential of the investment portfolio and that is coming through in the results. The book yield on the investment portfolio ended the quarter at 3.2%, up 20 basis points in the Q1 and up 60 basis points from a year ago. Sequentially, investment income was up $3,000,000 in the quarter and up $11,000,000 from the Q1 last year. Assuming a similar interest rate environment, we expect the book yield on the investment the current book yield. Speaker 300:12:43Operating expenses in the quarter were $73,000,000 down from $74,000,000 last quarter and up from $57,000,000 in the Q1 last year. The increase in operating expenses during the Q1 compared to last year was due in large part to $8,000,000 in pension settlement charges this quarter compared to 0 in the Q1 last year. Going forward, we expect to incur settlement charges more often because as we previously announced, we froze our pension plan effective December 31, 2022. However, the level of those charges should be significantly lower for the remainder of 2023. We continue to expect full year operating expenses This will be down modestly in 2023 to the range of $235,000,000 to $245,000,000 the same range we provided in February. Speaker 300:13:36Turning to our capital management activities. During the Q1, the capital levels at MGIC Liquidity levels of the holding company continued to be above our targets. Consistent with our capital strategy, during the second quarter, we approval and paid a $300,000,000 dividend from MGIC to the holding company and our Board approved an additional $500,000,000 share repurchase authorization, which expires on June 30, 2025. The additional share repurchase authorization reflects our strong capital position and outlook for continuing to generate excess capital at the operating company and to pay dividends to the holding company. In the Q1, we repurchased 5,800,000 outstanding shares of common stock for $78,000,000 and we paid a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend to shareholders. Speaker 300:14:29The holding company ended the quarter with cash and investments of $582,000,000 In April, our Board authorized the $0.10 per share quarterly common stock dividend payable on May 25, And we repurchased an additional 1,700,000 shares for $24,000,000 Our recent share repurchase activity levels reflect both caution towards the increased uncertainty in the current environment as well as the strong mortgage credit performance and financial results we continue to experience and recent share price valuation levels that we believe are very attractive to generate long term value for remaining shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back over to Tim. Speaker 200:15:10Thanks, Nathan. Few additional comments before we open up for questions. We have announced about the impact of FHA's 30 basis point decrease in MI premium rates and the GSE's LLPA pricing adjustments each announced during the Q1. We operate in a very competitive and dynamic marketplace where several factors drive consumer behaviors and mortgage product preferences, Cost being one of the most important of those factors. With multiple moving parts, it's too early to fully understand how these changes will impact Our NIW volume will continue to monitor, evaluate and alter our approach to the market as needed. Speaker 200:15:46Lastly, in April, the GSE published Updated Equitable Housing Finance Plans. Plans seek to advance equity and housing finance over a 3 year period include potential changes to the GSE's business practices and policies. We welcome the opportunity to engage with the GSEs and other industry stakeholders to responsibly expand access to homeownership. Will continue to advocate for the increased use of private mortgage insurance and housing finance. In closing, we had another successful quarter and a great start to a new year. Speaker 200:16:15I'm optimistic that the favorable credit and employment trends we have been experiencing as well as the resiliency of the housing market will continue. We are comfortable in our market position and continue to believe that we are well situated to navigate the current environment's uncertainties and deliver on our business strategies. With that operator, let's take questions. Operator00:16:36Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Bose George of KBW. Your line is now open. Speaker 400:17:10Hey, everyone. Good morning. Actually, first question just on the expense guidance. Does that range include the $8,000,000 for this year or should we sort of add that to that range that you provided? Speaker 300:17:23Bose, it's Nathan. The full year guidance would be inclusive of the settlement charge that we incurred in the Q1. Speaker 400:17:30Okay, great. Thanks. And then just in terms of your when you think about the leverage going forward, is the debt to capital range Where it is now, which is historically fairly low, kind of the run rate that you want to keep it at? Speaker 300:17:46Yes. Bose, this is Nathan again. We've said as we delevered over the last year or 2, I mean, we've said that our target debt to capital Ratio in kind of normal times is in the low to mid teens. And I think right now we're approximately 12%. So We're in a very comfortable range for us and don't foresee any meaningful increase in leverage in the near term. Speaker 400:18:09Okay, great. Speaker 500:18:10Thanks a lot. Speaker 200:18:12Thanks, Todd. Operator00:18:15Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVry of Barclays. Your line is now open. Speaker 600:18:31Yes. Thanks. Had follow-up questions on, Tim, some of your comments around Market share, just kind of wondering, I think you mentioned that the risk reward has gotten a little more favorable from You expect share to kind of increase in 2Q. Just wondering what's changed? Has The mark one of your competitors commented on kind of a hardening market and pricing moving up. Speaker 600:19:02Has the market kind of Come back to you, kind of maybe price increases you made earlier that caused the share to fall off? Or are there other kind of Changes that have got you more attracted to the risk reward? Speaker 200:19:17Mark, it's a good question. I appreciate it. As I said in the comments, we made majority of our changes really in the late Q3, early Q4 pricing last Which we thought was reflective of the market. The way I look at things, I don't think much has deteriorated since then. So I think it can be a combination of both of right the market maybe moving a little bit more towards this. Speaker 200:19:42I've heard the other comments too. I think we've observed some of that. I think also getting a little bit more comfortable with what's out there right now and it's been pretty orderly. And I think Some of the stresses that we might have been concerned about 6 months ago, while still possibility, it seems like a pretty orderly sort of falling out of HPA, which feels good as well. So I think again, we made most of our actions early on. Speaker 200:20:09I think that hurt us From a volume standpoint, for this quarter in particular, but I think the pricing in the market seems more constructive now, Which is a good thing for us to be able to get the returns we want, which we have to stay disciplined on. Speaker 600:20:24Okay, got it. And my next Question has to do with the expense ratio. I mean, I think, unless I'm interpreting it wrong, Nathan, the guidance around total OpEx would still have you probably close to a mid-20s expense ratio, which is Still pretty materially above where it had been for a long time kind of pre pandemic. You just talk about, 1, am I kind of interpreting that correctly? And 2, kind of what's changed to make the expense ratio higher? Speaker 300:21:00Yes, Nathan. I think a couple of things. For the 2023 expense ratio, I think you're I'm interpreting that correctly. I think we do end up in the kind of 24%, 25%, 26% range depending on what happens with Net premiums, which again is somewhat dependent on losses due to the profit commission dynamics there. So it's hard to peg down specifically from an Investments in our platform. Speaker 300:21:37I think we've done a lot of those things that have really helped us understand the market better, helped us continue to serve customers better. But clearly expenses are continuing to be a focus for us And efficiency going forward will be is and will continue to be a big focus for us. So I don't think mid-20s where we may land this year. I don't think that's as low as the expense ratio can go. And that's something that we're obviously focused on every day here. Speaker 600:22:06Okay, got it. Thank you. Speaker 200:22:09Thanks. Operator00:22:11Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Giuliano Bologna from Compass Point. Your line is now open. Speaker 500:22:29Well, thanks. Congrats on a great quarter and thanks for taking my questions. Following up on a similar topic on the expense side, if I look at kind of what's implied by reiterating the guidance after being high in the Q1 is $57,500,000 per quarter on average, which actually is more of a $230,000,000 run rate kind of for the balance of the year. And I'm curious about the right way to think of that, acknowledging that you mentioned there might be some additional Pension settlement related costs that could flow through. Is that kind of where the new base is that you'll be growing from? Speaker 500:23:05Or how should I think about the cadence of that going forward? Speaker 300:23:09This is Nathan. I do think we did expect some higher first quarter expenses. We did expect Some level of settlement charges, the actual was higher than we were expecting. There's also some other things that just happened in the Q1 that drive kind of Q1 expenses a little bit higher, things like payroll taxes and other things that are just higher in the Q1. I think the full year guidance is probably the right way to think about the full year run rate, but the quarterly numbers will have some variability to them. Speaker 300:23:41And I think This year in particular, but even going forward, maybe a little skewed to Q1 being higher than some of the other quarters. Speaker 500:23:52That makes sense. And obviously, it's been very active on the capital return front. But when we kind of look forward When it comes to the buyback, I'd be curious if you're thinking about the merits of increasing your cushion from an excess of those Required assets or if you are comfortable with where your current cushion sits at the moment in terms of thinking about capital levels, The insurance company level? Speaker 300:24:20Yes. So we ended the Q1 with the $2,400,000,000 Access to PMIERs, we felt like that was above our targets that ultimately prompted requesting and receiving approval and paying The $300,000,000 dividend from MGIC to the holding company. The operating company continues to generate significant amounts of capital. So that's something that we've really had to actively manage. But where we were post dividend, which is on a pro form a basis, dollars 2,100,000,000 At the end of the Q1, that's still obviously a very comfortable level for us. Speaker 300:24:59So we've been consistently above our target levels and using Large dividends from the operating company to the holding company to manage that. But again, that's driven off of the strong financial results credit performance that we've seen. So we are taking this on a quarter by quarter basis to evaluate what we think the right things To do our capital wise, to date credit performance has remained very, very strong and the results have been strong and that's afforded us Opportunities like we have to return capital to shareholders and to continue to pay dividends to the holding company. Speaker 500:25:37That's great. Thank you for taking my questions and I will jump back in the queue. Thanks. Operator00:25:43Thank you so much. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mihir Bhatia from Bank of America. Speaker 700:25:56Hi, good morning Thank you for taking my question. I want to go back to the questions around expenses. And I am a little curious Just to what can you remind us of like exactly what changed last year? And the reason I ask that is, I think you had 3, 4 years of expenses around, call it, dollars 190,000,000 up to 200,000,000 And then last year, you jumped up to this $235,000,000 $240,000,000 range, which it sounds like will be again from going forward from here from the Comments are last answer. And I'm just trying to understand what changed at MTG to cause such a big step up On a go forward basis. Speaker 300:26:42Mihir, it's Nathan. I'd kind of point you to probably three things. One, and we kind of went through this last quarter and at various times last year, but we did incur significant, I think If my memory serves me about $25,000,000 for the full year in pension related costs and settlement charges Last year, which increased the expense level last year. The other thing in our long term incentive plan, The financial performance in 2021, 2022, particularly on an ROE basis was very, very strong and that has led Additional expense under our performance based long term performance based comp plans, which has added to that a little bit versus Years like 2020 with COVID and increased losses there where the performance based compensation expense was much lower as a result of performance that was while still generating, I believe, 10% ROEs that year, Not at the level that we've experienced subsequent to that. And then I think the third is one that we started talking about as early as 2019, which is Just making continued investments in our infrastructure, in our data and analytics and in our ability to kind of perform well and be in the right positions in this market. Speaker 300:28:08So I think the combination of those things has led to An increase in expense last year, a little bit this year, but I think one of those things is really due to The high performance that we've had from an ROE standpoint, if we do have periods that are more as expected, Some of that would just naturally be less as well. Speaker 700:28:35Okay. And then maybe just switching gears a little bit to your comment about just the risk reward. Obviously, as you mentioned, the pricing environment has gone better. But maybe on the credit side, just wanted to get your view. Are there any specific pockets or areas or particular issues that you're concerned about on Speaker 400:28:55the credit Speaker 700:28:55side? Just trying to understand like where you are on the credit Today versus maybe 3 months ago or 6 months ago? Thank you. Speaker 200:29:04Bahir, I would say nothing really on the credit side when I think about Sort of from an underwriting characteristics standpoint, right? I think other than if you think about the individual borrower, FICO, LTV, where they are, I think we feel comfortable with those dynamics. If you think about the I think the enhanced risk We saw sort of Q3, Q4 last year was likelihood of home prices declining, which creates an environment for higher likelihood of losses, I think the other thing you see and this gets a little bit in the credit, but more into the affordability issue is DTI, right? That DTIs are more stretched than they were before. I think we feel really comfortable with the profile of what we're seeing. Speaker 200:29:49And obviously, we have ability to price for TI as well, so that makes us feel comfortable from a return standpoint. So yes, while you'll see a little bit higher DTI, obviously, as a percent of our volume this year Compared to say a year ago, before interest rates rose, I think we feel generally comfortable at the sort of where we're at and especially the risk return we can achieve Being able to price for those characteristics. Speaker 700:30:13Yes. And just my last question, insurance in force, Do you expect insurance in force to increase this year, just sitting where you are today and thinking about your NIW versus persistency? Or do you think like there's I guess, what are your expectations on insurance inflows for this year? Thank you. Speaker 200:30:32Yes, I think I'd reiterate, I think what we said probably on our last call, which we think it's pretty much going to be flat for the year. So I know a little bit down quarter over quarter But I think as we think about just normal seasonality within housing and I think we believe continued persistency, being sort of at a strong level, We'd say we still believe we're going to be flat year over year. Speaker 700:30:55Thank you. Sure. Operator00:31:00Thank you so much. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Hagen from BTIG. Your line is now open. Speaker 800:31:24Hey, thanks. Good morning. Couple of questions here. The legacy book isn't huge, but it is a chunk of the delinquency pipeline. Can you talk about How much you're reserving for in the legacy book at this point? Speaker 800:31:36Maybe how the mark to market LTV compares to some of the newer issue loans and the severities that you're expecting now, And the second question is, do you feel like there's any like a threshold for cost in the reinsurance market at which you'd Maybe look to change the risk profile you target or even how you reserve for credit based on what you see in that market? Thank you. Speaker 300:32:02Eric, it's Nathan. On the first question relative to the legacy book, I mean, you're correct that it's a very small portion of the risk in force at this point, But it does make up a disproportionate amount of the new delinquencies that we receive and the delinquency inventory. I think the one characteristic That kind of cohort of loans has particularly in our new delinquencies and in our delinquent inventory Is that most of them have been delinquent 6 times or more. We disclosed in our supplemental information The statistics about new notices received in the quarter and the percent that were previously delinquent And on the 'eight I'm sorry, 'eight and prior, it's about 97% of those delinquencies have been delinquent before. And a lot of those have been delinquent 5, 10, 15 times over that long period of time. Speaker 300:32:58So What we have observed out of groups like that is that they actually have a much lower propensity to ultimately result in a claim and that we see a lot of churn From delinquent back to current, back to delinquent out of that group. So I think we think about reserving factors At a cohort level for notice quarters that were received, so not separate factors for those types of loans. But I would say, The key characteristic there is just that we see a lot of those items coming into the delinquency inventory And then coming out a month or 2 later and then coming back in a month or 2 after that. But our experience is that that results in a very low likely Claim for any one delinquency, so it wouldn't result in necessarily a higher claim rate expectation on those items just because They are from those vintages. Speaker 800:33:59That's really helpful. That's really helpful. Yes, go ahead. Speaker 200:34:03Thank you. Speaker 300:34:04I was going to say relative to the question on reinsurance costs, I think We have done reinsurance deals where we thought the cost of capital, at least the cost of PMIERs capital was Very, very low, sub-four percent. We've done deals where that cost was somewhat higher. So I think we're comfortable transacting in a range of Cost bands there, what's happened I think in the ILN market is just the availability there. We did a deal last year, but subsequent deals, it seems at least observing, were more difficult to transact. The traditional reinsurance market has continued to be very active and I think still provides pricing that we would find attractive for deals. Speaker 300:34:52So That's obviously an area where we placed a 25% quarter share covering our 2023 business and continue to have dialogue with that market around Other risk transfer opportunities there. So the BrightLine level, I'm not sure that I could give you good guidance on that, but just to say that levels right now in the reinsurance market, I think, still look pretty attractive. Speaker 800:35:19Great. Thank Operator00:35:34Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Dunn of Dowling and Partners. Your line is now open. Speaker 900:35:41Thanks. Good morning. Good morning. Tim, I don't remember when it was exactly, but I think it's been at least a couple of years ago when The company guided that we should expect a couple of years of increased expenses for tech spend. And I'm wondering based on the conversations we're having now about expenses, is that partly because That program or that effort proved more expensive for longer or yielded higher recurring expense than maybe you thought at the beginning of that effort? Speaker 900:36:13Or are we talking about kind of more broadly spread higher expenses across the company? Speaker 200:36:20Jeff, Tim, it's a good question. I mean, obviously, there's some inflation from a the biggest part of our costs are our people, And obviously, it was demand for talent and us making sure that we retain the best and the brightest to be able to serve our customers. That's something that probably has been not a favorable headwind or not a favorable tailwind for us the last few years. From an actual investment standpoint, I think we try to stay disciplined in what we want to have there. I would say it's safe to say that It's normally, I think, higher than where we thought we might have to be to invest in some of the analytical capabilities to continue to And to really feel like we understand the market, and to really be able to organize the data the way we think we can fully leverage it. Speaker 200:37:09I don't think it's a step function and I don't view it as something that means that it's going to be in perpetuity. But I do think, compared to the comments maybe a couple of years ago, there's continuous investment you need to make. At the level we're at right now, at the level we were at sort of last coming into the year, not necessarily that. And that's one of the things that as we think about the rest of the year where I think we're going to be ultimately a little bit lower than we were coming into the year. But it is safe to say that there's a tail there to that investment. Speaker 200:37:42I think in this operating environment, we're always going to feel some need to invest in the platform. Speaker 900:37:50So I think, at least my thought process was we might kind of have a cliff recovery when you first announced that after a couple of years. It sounds like it's kind of A trickle improvement as efficiencies are gained, some of the expenses decline, But not a return to that original absolute or original relative level because of the Speaker 200:38:14current I think that's fair. I I'll tell you, being in this business myself for since 2006 and the company being around since 66 years. I think efficiency is something we always have to be focused on. 1st and foremost, we have to serve our customers, but we have to do it in the most efficient way. I can tell you that it's something that we talk about as a management team making sure that we are thoughtful about that. Speaker 200:38:43But I don't anticipate A step down, not in the near future here, but it is something that I would say that we're focused on. Speaker 700:38:54All right. Thanks. Speaker 200:38:56Thanks. Operator00:38:58All right. Thank you so much. Please standby while we compile the Q and A roster. And just as a reminder, At this time, I would like to turn it back to Tim Mackey for closing remarks. Speaker 200:39:26Thank you, Jewel. I want to thank everyone for your interest in MGIC. Remind you that we'll be participating in a panel discussion at Mortgage Finance at the BTIG Housing Conference on Monday, May 8. I look forward to talking to all of you in the near future. Hope you have a great rest of your week. Operator00:39:44Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallMGIC Investment Q1 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) MGIC Investment Earnings HeadlinesEssent Group: Falling Behind Its Peers In Key AreasApril 13, 2025 | seekingalpha.comMGIC Investment price target lowered to $26 from $28 at Keefe BruyetteApril 8, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comThe Trump Dump is starting; Get out of stocks now?The first 365 days of the Trump presidency… Will be the best time to get rich in American history.April 17, 2025 | Paradigm Press (Ad)Barclays Reaffirms Their Hold Rating on MGIC Investment (MTG)April 8, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comMGIC Investment Corporation Schedules 1st Quarter 2025 Earnings CallApril 4, 2025 | prnewswire.comInvesting in MGIC Investment (NYSE:MTG) five years ago would have delivered you a 391% gainApril 1, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comSee More MGIC Investment Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like MGIC Investment? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on MGIC Investment and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About MGIC InvestmentMGIC Investment (NYSE:MTG), through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services to lenders and government sponsored entities in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. The company offers primary mortgage insurance that provides mortgage default protection on individual loans, as well as covers unpaid loan principal, delinquent interest, and various expenses associated with the default and subsequent foreclosure. It also provides pool insurance for secondary market mortgage transactions; and contract underwriting services, as well as reinsurance. The company serves originators of residential mortgage loans, including savings institutions, commercial banks, mortgage brokers, credit unions, mortgage bankers, and other lenders. MGIC Investment Corporation was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.View MGIC Investment ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles 3 Reasons to Like the Look of Amazon Ahead of EarningsTesla Stock Eyes Breakout With Earnings on DeckJohnson & Johnson Earnings Were More Good Than Bad—Time to Buy? 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There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. At the end of today's presentation, we will have a question and answer session. I will now turn the conference over to Diana Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:38Thank you, Jewel. Good morning and welcome everyone. Thank you for your interest in MGIC Investment Corporation. Joining me on the call today to discuss our results for the Q1 are Tim Mackey, Chief Executive Officer and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer. Our press release, which contains MGIC's 1st quarter financial results, was issued yesterday and is available on our website atmtg.mgic.com under Newsroom includes additional information about our quarterly results that we will refer to during the call. Speaker 100:01:18It also includes a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures. In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable. As a reminder, from time to time, we may post information about underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website. Before getting started today, I want to remind everyone To differ materially from those discussed on the call today are contained in our 8 ks and 10 Q that were also filed yesterday. If we make any forward looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. Speaker 100:02:24No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward looking statements are current at any other time than the time of this call for the issuance of our 8 ks and 10 Q. With that, I will now turn the call over to Tim. Speaker 200:02:39Thanks, Diana, and good morning, everyone. We had a good start to 2023, delivering solid financial results for the Q1. We remain focused on executing our business strategies, our financial strength and flexibility In strong risk management and furtherance of our long term success with the company, we're in an excellent position to serve our customers with quality offerings and solutions, while creating shareholder value. In the quarter, we earned $155,000,000 of net income or $0.53 per share and produced an annualized 13.3 percent return on equity. The main driver of our revenue, our insurance in force, grew by 5 point 4% year over year, ended the quarter at $292,000,000,000 The year over year growth in insurance in force, despite lower volumes of new insurance written, reflects an increased persistency rate as the level of refinance activity in the market remains very low. Speaker 200:03:33Annual persistency increased 82% at the end of the quarter, up from 67% a year ago. In the quarter, we wrote $8,000,000,000 of NIW. We expect our level of NIW in the Q1 as a reflection of a smaller MI origination market, but also reflective of our market position As we took actions in the 3rd and 4th quarters last year, intended to address our views of the risks and uncertainties that I discussed during last quarter's call. Specifically, last quarter we explained that we expected our Q4 market share to likely decrease by a couple of percentage points from the prior quarter. When the industry reported last quarter, that was indeed the case. Speaker 200:04:12We also mentioned in our last calls that our Q1 2023 market share will likely see a larger relative decline from Q4 2022. We continue to believe this is the case. We recognize that the loss of market share would be the potential trade off to the Achieve achieved the returns we believed reflective of the risk in the environment where interest rates had spiked, affordability was stretched and home prices were expected to fall from their peak. As a reminder, the time between taking actions and the resulting NIW is not immediate This pricing leads NIW by a month or 2 on average. So what you see in Q1 NIW is primarily reflection of our views of risk return from late last year. Speaker 200:04:52While we won't comment on our current market position given competitive considerations, in recent months, our view of the market's risk return began to gradually improve. As a result, we expect our reported market share in the 2nd quarter will be higher, reflecting this gradual improvement. Consensus mortgage origination forecast from revised lower interest rates remaining elevated and continued affordability challenges. Although the overall MI origination market opportunity is smaller this year, we expect that with our new business we write combined with higher persistency, Our insurance in force portfolio will remain relatively flat this year. While the affordability issues and high interest rates we have put downward pressure on home prices, The home price declines seen in the last 6 months or so have been more modest than many had forecasted. Speaker 200:05:40I'm cautiously optimistic that home price trends will continue normalizing I believe that a gradual normalization of home prices is healthy for the housing market and overall economy. Taking a look at the credit performance on our insurance portfolio, Our inventory of delinquency notices and our delinquency rate continue to be at historic lows. The credit performance of the 2020 and later books, which makes up approximately 81% of our risk in force, remains strong. We continue to be encouraged by the positive credit trends we are experiencing on our existing insurance portfolio. Our loss ratio was 3% in the quarter. Speaker 200:06:17This reflects reserves established on the new delinquencies reported to us in the quarter, offset by a re estimation of ultimate losses on delinquencies reported to us in prior quarters, which resulted in a favorable loss reserve development again this quarter. In the quarter, we deployed capital to support new business and continue to return meaningful capital to our shareholders through stock repurchases and common stock dividends. During the quarter, we repurchased 5,800,000 shares of common stock for $78,000,000 We paid a quarterly $0.10 per common stock dividend share for $30,000,000 In April, we repurchased Additional 1,700,000 shares of common stock for a total of $24,000,000 and the Board authorized an additional $500,000,000 share repurchase program and a $0.10 per share common stock dividend to be paid on May 25. For the last couple of years, we've been discussing our capital management strategy, which centers on maintaining financial strength and flexibility at both the holding company to create long term value for shareholders and at the operating company to protect our policyholders. We routinely assess and evaluate the level of capital at both companies, including the level of capital that we retain for future deployment versus return to shareholders to position both companies to achieve success in varying environments, both in the near term and the long term. Speaker 200:07:40To that end, earlier this week, MGIC paid a $300,000,000 dividend to the holding company. The dividend enhances the liquidity position of the holding company, enhances the financial flexibility of the company overall. Our capital management strategy also includes a comprehensive reinsurance program, which reduces the volatility of losses in changing economic environments. It provides diversification and flexibility of sources of capital. At the end of the Q1, approximately 85% of our risk in force was covered to some extent by reinsurance transactions And approximately 98% of the risk in force relating to the 2020 through 2022 books was covered to some extent by reinsurance transactions. Speaker 200:08:23With that, let me turn it over to Nathan. Speaker 300:08:26Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim mentioned, we had another strong quarter. We earned $155,000,000 of net income or $0.53 per diluted share compared to $0.54 per diluted share during the Q1 last year. Adjusted net operating income was $0.54 per diluted share compared to $0.60 last year. A detailed reconciliation Of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release. Speaker 300:08:56The results for the Q1 We're reflective of continued strong credit performance, which has led to favorable loss reserve development and resulted in a 3% loss ratio this quarter. Net losses incurred were $6,000,000 in the Q1 compared to negative $19,000,000 in the Q1 last year. Our review and re estimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $41,000,000 of favorable loss reserve development compared to $56,000,000 of favorable loss reserve development during the Q1 last year. The favorable development in the quarter was related to new delinquencies from 2021 prior. As cure rates on those delinquency groups continue to exceed our expectations, We have continued to make favorable adjustments to our ultimate loss expectations. Speaker 300:09:47In the quarter, our delinquency inventory decreased by 6% to 24,800 loans compared to an increase of 2% last quarter. In the quarter, we received 11,300 new delinquency notices compared to $11,900 last quarter and $10,700 in the Q1 last year. Historically, the Q1 was seasonally good for credit So what we saw in the quarter may be a reversion to seasonal trends that were largely disrupted starting in March 2020 with the onset of the COVID-nineteen pandemic. During the quarter, total revenues were $284,000,000 compared to $295,000,000 for the same period last year. Net premiums earned were $242,000,000 in the quarter compared to $255,000,000 for the same period last year. Speaker 300:10:39The decrease in net premium earned is primarily due to a decrease in accelerated single premium cancellation, An increase in ceded premiums and a decrease in our premium yield, offset somewhat by growth in our insurance in force. The in force premium yield was 38.7 basis points in the quarter, down 0.2 basis point from last quarter. The in force portfolio yield reflects the premium rates and effect on our insurance in force and has been declining for some time, but the pace of decline has been slowing in recent quarters. As I mentioned on the call last quarter, we continue to expect the in force premium yield to remain relatively Flat during 2023. Book value per share increased 4.7% during the quarter to $16.57 The unrealized losses in the investment portfolio narrowed by approximately $100,000,000 which benefited the growth in book value per share in the quarter. Speaker 300:11:40Despite the headwind from increased unrealized losses due to changes in interest rates and paying our quarterly shareholder dividend, book value per share increased more than 12% compared to a year ago due to our strong results and accretive share repurchases. While higher interest rates are a headwind for book value per share in the short term, higher interest rates are a long term positive earnings potential of the investment portfolio and that is coming through in the results. The book yield on the investment portfolio ended the quarter at 3.2%, up 20 basis points in the Q1 and up 60 basis points from a year ago. Sequentially, investment income was up $3,000,000 in the quarter and up $11,000,000 from the Q1 last year. Assuming a similar interest rate environment, we expect the book yield on the investment the current book yield. Speaker 300:12:43Operating expenses in the quarter were $73,000,000 down from $74,000,000 last quarter and up from $57,000,000 in the Q1 last year. The increase in operating expenses during the Q1 compared to last year was due in large part to $8,000,000 in pension settlement charges this quarter compared to 0 in the Q1 last year. Going forward, we expect to incur settlement charges more often because as we previously announced, we froze our pension plan effective December 31, 2022. However, the level of those charges should be significantly lower for the remainder of 2023. We continue to expect full year operating expenses This will be down modestly in 2023 to the range of $235,000,000 to $245,000,000 the same range we provided in February. Speaker 300:13:36Turning to our capital management activities. During the Q1, the capital levels at MGIC Liquidity levels of the holding company continued to be above our targets. Consistent with our capital strategy, during the second quarter, we approval and paid a $300,000,000 dividend from MGIC to the holding company and our Board approved an additional $500,000,000 share repurchase authorization, which expires on June 30, 2025. The additional share repurchase authorization reflects our strong capital position and outlook for continuing to generate excess capital at the operating company and to pay dividends to the holding company. In the Q1, we repurchased 5,800,000 outstanding shares of common stock for $78,000,000 and we paid a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend to shareholders. Speaker 300:14:29The holding company ended the quarter with cash and investments of $582,000,000 In April, our Board authorized the $0.10 per share quarterly common stock dividend payable on May 25, And we repurchased an additional 1,700,000 shares for $24,000,000 Our recent share repurchase activity levels reflect both caution towards the increased uncertainty in the current environment as well as the strong mortgage credit performance and financial results we continue to experience and recent share price valuation levels that we believe are very attractive to generate long term value for remaining shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back over to Tim. Speaker 200:15:10Thanks, Nathan. Few additional comments before we open up for questions. We have announced about the impact of FHA's 30 basis point decrease in MI premium rates and the GSE's LLPA pricing adjustments each announced during the Q1. We operate in a very competitive and dynamic marketplace where several factors drive consumer behaviors and mortgage product preferences, Cost being one of the most important of those factors. With multiple moving parts, it's too early to fully understand how these changes will impact Our NIW volume will continue to monitor, evaluate and alter our approach to the market as needed. Speaker 200:15:46Lastly, in April, the GSE published Updated Equitable Housing Finance Plans. Plans seek to advance equity and housing finance over a 3 year period include potential changes to the GSE's business practices and policies. We welcome the opportunity to engage with the GSEs and other industry stakeholders to responsibly expand access to homeownership. Will continue to advocate for the increased use of private mortgage insurance and housing finance. In closing, we had another successful quarter and a great start to a new year. Speaker 200:16:15I'm optimistic that the favorable credit and employment trends we have been experiencing as well as the resiliency of the housing market will continue. We are comfortable in our market position and continue to believe that we are well situated to navigate the current environment's uncertainties and deliver on our business strategies. With that operator, let's take questions. Operator00:16:36Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Bose George of KBW. Your line is now open. Speaker 400:17:10Hey, everyone. Good morning. Actually, first question just on the expense guidance. Does that range include the $8,000,000 for this year or should we sort of add that to that range that you provided? Speaker 300:17:23Bose, it's Nathan. The full year guidance would be inclusive of the settlement charge that we incurred in the Q1. Speaker 400:17:30Okay, great. Thanks. And then just in terms of your when you think about the leverage going forward, is the debt to capital range Where it is now, which is historically fairly low, kind of the run rate that you want to keep it at? Speaker 300:17:46Yes. Bose, this is Nathan again. We've said as we delevered over the last year or 2, I mean, we've said that our target debt to capital Ratio in kind of normal times is in the low to mid teens. And I think right now we're approximately 12%. So We're in a very comfortable range for us and don't foresee any meaningful increase in leverage in the near term. Speaker 400:18:09Okay, great. Speaker 500:18:10Thanks a lot. Speaker 200:18:12Thanks, Todd. Operator00:18:15Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVry of Barclays. Your line is now open. Speaker 600:18:31Yes. Thanks. Had follow-up questions on, Tim, some of your comments around Market share, just kind of wondering, I think you mentioned that the risk reward has gotten a little more favorable from You expect share to kind of increase in 2Q. Just wondering what's changed? Has The mark one of your competitors commented on kind of a hardening market and pricing moving up. Speaker 600:19:02Has the market kind of Come back to you, kind of maybe price increases you made earlier that caused the share to fall off? Or are there other kind of Changes that have got you more attracted to the risk reward? Speaker 200:19:17Mark, it's a good question. I appreciate it. As I said in the comments, we made majority of our changes really in the late Q3, early Q4 pricing last Which we thought was reflective of the market. The way I look at things, I don't think much has deteriorated since then. So I think it can be a combination of both of right the market maybe moving a little bit more towards this. Speaker 200:19:42I've heard the other comments too. I think we've observed some of that. I think also getting a little bit more comfortable with what's out there right now and it's been pretty orderly. And I think Some of the stresses that we might have been concerned about 6 months ago, while still possibility, it seems like a pretty orderly sort of falling out of HPA, which feels good as well. So I think again, we made most of our actions early on. Speaker 200:20:09I think that hurt us From a volume standpoint, for this quarter in particular, but I think the pricing in the market seems more constructive now, Which is a good thing for us to be able to get the returns we want, which we have to stay disciplined on. Speaker 600:20:24Okay, got it. And my next Question has to do with the expense ratio. I mean, I think, unless I'm interpreting it wrong, Nathan, the guidance around total OpEx would still have you probably close to a mid-20s expense ratio, which is Still pretty materially above where it had been for a long time kind of pre pandemic. You just talk about, 1, am I kind of interpreting that correctly? And 2, kind of what's changed to make the expense ratio higher? Speaker 300:21:00Yes, Nathan. I think a couple of things. For the 2023 expense ratio, I think you're I'm interpreting that correctly. I think we do end up in the kind of 24%, 25%, 26% range depending on what happens with Net premiums, which again is somewhat dependent on losses due to the profit commission dynamics there. So it's hard to peg down specifically from an Investments in our platform. Speaker 300:21:37I think we've done a lot of those things that have really helped us understand the market better, helped us continue to serve customers better. But clearly expenses are continuing to be a focus for us And efficiency going forward will be is and will continue to be a big focus for us. So I don't think mid-20s where we may land this year. I don't think that's as low as the expense ratio can go. And that's something that we're obviously focused on every day here. Speaker 600:22:06Okay, got it. Thank you. Speaker 200:22:09Thanks. Operator00:22:11Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Giuliano Bologna from Compass Point. Your line is now open. Speaker 500:22:29Well, thanks. Congrats on a great quarter and thanks for taking my questions. Following up on a similar topic on the expense side, if I look at kind of what's implied by reiterating the guidance after being high in the Q1 is $57,500,000 per quarter on average, which actually is more of a $230,000,000 run rate kind of for the balance of the year. And I'm curious about the right way to think of that, acknowledging that you mentioned there might be some additional Pension settlement related costs that could flow through. Is that kind of where the new base is that you'll be growing from? Speaker 500:23:05Or how should I think about the cadence of that going forward? Speaker 300:23:09This is Nathan. I do think we did expect some higher first quarter expenses. We did expect Some level of settlement charges, the actual was higher than we were expecting. There's also some other things that just happened in the Q1 that drive kind of Q1 expenses a little bit higher, things like payroll taxes and other things that are just higher in the Q1. I think the full year guidance is probably the right way to think about the full year run rate, but the quarterly numbers will have some variability to them. Speaker 300:23:41And I think This year in particular, but even going forward, maybe a little skewed to Q1 being higher than some of the other quarters. Speaker 500:23:52That makes sense. And obviously, it's been very active on the capital return front. But when we kind of look forward When it comes to the buyback, I'd be curious if you're thinking about the merits of increasing your cushion from an excess of those Required assets or if you are comfortable with where your current cushion sits at the moment in terms of thinking about capital levels, The insurance company level? Speaker 300:24:20Yes. So we ended the Q1 with the $2,400,000,000 Access to PMIERs, we felt like that was above our targets that ultimately prompted requesting and receiving approval and paying The $300,000,000 dividend from MGIC to the holding company. The operating company continues to generate significant amounts of capital. So that's something that we've really had to actively manage. But where we were post dividend, which is on a pro form a basis, dollars 2,100,000,000 At the end of the Q1, that's still obviously a very comfortable level for us. Speaker 300:24:59So we've been consistently above our target levels and using Large dividends from the operating company to the holding company to manage that. But again, that's driven off of the strong financial results credit performance that we've seen. So we are taking this on a quarter by quarter basis to evaluate what we think the right things To do our capital wise, to date credit performance has remained very, very strong and the results have been strong and that's afforded us Opportunities like we have to return capital to shareholders and to continue to pay dividends to the holding company. Speaker 500:25:37That's great. Thank you for taking my questions and I will jump back in the queue. Thanks. Operator00:25:43Thank you so much. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mihir Bhatia from Bank of America. Speaker 700:25:56Hi, good morning Thank you for taking my question. I want to go back to the questions around expenses. And I am a little curious Just to what can you remind us of like exactly what changed last year? And the reason I ask that is, I think you had 3, 4 years of expenses around, call it, dollars 190,000,000 up to 200,000,000 And then last year, you jumped up to this $235,000,000 $240,000,000 range, which it sounds like will be again from going forward from here from the Comments are last answer. And I'm just trying to understand what changed at MTG to cause such a big step up On a go forward basis. Speaker 300:26:42Mihir, it's Nathan. I'd kind of point you to probably three things. One, and we kind of went through this last quarter and at various times last year, but we did incur significant, I think If my memory serves me about $25,000,000 for the full year in pension related costs and settlement charges Last year, which increased the expense level last year. The other thing in our long term incentive plan, The financial performance in 2021, 2022, particularly on an ROE basis was very, very strong and that has led Additional expense under our performance based long term performance based comp plans, which has added to that a little bit versus Years like 2020 with COVID and increased losses there where the performance based compensation expense was much lower as a result of performance that was while still generating, I believe, 10% ROEs that year, Not at the level that we've experienced subsequent to that. And then I think the third is one that we started talking about as early as 2019, which is Just making continued investments in our infrastructure, in our data and analytics and in our ability to kind of perform well and be in the right positions in this market. Speaker 300:28:08So I think the combination of those things has led to An increase in expense last year, a little bit this year, but I think one of those things is really due to The high performance that we've had from an ROE standpoint, if we do have periods that are more as expected, Some of that would just naturally be less as well. Speaker 700:28:35Okay. And then maybe just switching gears a little bit to your comment about just the risk reward. Obviously, as you mentioned, the pricing environment has gone better. But maybe on the credit side, just wanted to get your view. Are there any specific pockets or areas or particular issues that you're concerned about on Speaker 400:28:55the credit Speaker 700:28:55side? Just trying to understand like where you are on the credit Today versus maybe 3 months ago or 6 months ago? Thank you. Speaker 200:29:04Bahir, I would say nothing really on the credit side when I think about Sort of from an underwriting characteristics standpoint, right? I think other than if you think about the individual borrower, FICO, LTV, where they are, I think we feel comfortable with those dynamics. If you think about the I think the enhanced risk We saw sort of Q3, Q4 last year was likelihood of home prices declining, which creates an environment for higher likelihood of losses, I think the other thing you see and this gets a little bit in the credit, but more into the affordability issue is DTI, right? That DTIs are more stretched than they were before. I think we feel really comfortable with the profile of what we're seeing. Speaker 200:29:49And obviously, we have ability to price for TI as well, so that makes us feel comfortable from a return standpoint. So yes, while you'll see a little bit higher DTI, obviously, as a percent of our volume this year Compared to say a year ago, before interest rates rose, I think we feel generally comfortable at the sort of where we're at and especially the risk return we can achieve Being able to price for those characteristics. Speaker 700:30:13Yes. And just my last question, insurance in force, Do you expect insurance in force to increase this year, just sitting where you are today and thinking about your NIW versus persistency? Or do you think like there's I guess, what are your expectations on insurance inflows for this year? Thank you. Speaker 200:30:32Yes, I think I'd reiterate, I think what we said probably on our last call, which we think it's pretty much going to be flat for the year. So I know a little bit down quarter over quarter But I think as we think about just normal seasonality within housing and I think we believe continued persistency, being sort of at a strong level, We'd say we still believe we're going to be flat year over year. Speaker 700:30:55Thank you. Sure. Operator00:31:00Thank you so much. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Hagen from BTIG. Your line is now open. Speaker 800:31:24Hey, thanks. Good morning. Couple of questions here. The legacy book isn't huge, but it is a chunk of the delinquency pipeline. Can you talk about How much you're reserving for in the legacy book at this point? Speaker 800:31:36Maybe how the mark to market LTV compares to some of the newer issue loans and the severities that you're expecting now, And the second question is, do you feel like there's any like a threshold for cost in the reinsurance market at which you'd Maybe look to change the risk profile you target or even how you reserve for credit based on what you see in that market? Thank you. Speaker 300:32:02Eric, it's Nathan. On the first question relative to the legacy book, I mean, you're correct that it's a very small portion of the risk in force at this point, But it does make up a disproportionate amount of the new delinquencies that we receive and the delinquency inventory. I think the one characteristic That kind of cohort of loans has particularly in our new delinquencies and in our delinquent inventory Is that most of them have been delinquent 6 times or more. We disclosed in our supplemental information The statistics about new notices received in the quarter and the percent that were previously delinquent And on the 'eight I'm sorry, 'eight and prior, it's about 97% of those delinquencies have been delinquent before. And a lot of those have been delinquent 5, 10, 15 times over that long period of time. Speaker 300:32:58So What we have observed out of groups like that is that they actually have a much lower propensity to ultimately result in a claim and that we see a lot of churn From delinquent back to current, back to delinquent out of that group. So I think we think about reserving factors At a cohort level for notice quarters that were received, so not separate factors for those types of loans. But I would say, The key characteristic there is just that we see a lot of those items coming into the delinquency inventory And then coming out a month or 2 later and then coming back in a month or 2 after that. But our experience is that that results in a very low likely Claim for any one delinquency, so it wouldn't result in necessarily a higher claim rate expectation on those items just because They are from those vintages. Speaker 800:33:59That's really helpful. That's really helpful. Yes, go ahead. Speaker 200:34:03Thank you. Speaker 300:34:04I was going to say relative to the question on reinsurance costs, I think We have done reinsurance deals where we thought the cost of capital, at least the cost of PMIERs capital was Very, very low, sub-four percent. We've done deals where that cost was somewhat higher. So I think we're comfortable transacting in a range of Cost bands there, what's happened I think in the ILN market is just the availability there. We did a deal last year, but subsequent deals, it seems at least observing, were more difficult to transact. The traditional reinsurance market has continued to be very active and I think still provides pricing that we would find attractive for deals. Speaker 300:34:52So That's obviously an area where we placed a 25% quarter share covering our 2023 business and continue to have dialogue with that market around Other risk transfer opportunities there. So the BrightLine level, I'm not sure that I could give you good guidance on that, but just to say that levels right now in the reinsurance market, I think, still look pretty attractive. Speaker 800:35:19Great. Thank Operator00:35:34Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Dunn of Dowling and Partners. Your line is now open. Speaker 900:35:41Thanks. Good morning. Good morning. Tim, I don't remember when it was exactly, but I think it's been at least a couple of years ago when The company guided that we should expect a couple of years of increased expenses for tech spend. And I'm wondering based on the conversations we're having now about expenses, is that partly because That program or that effort proved more expensive for longer or yielded higher recurring expense than maybe you thought at the beginning of that effort? Speaker 900:36:13Or are we talking about kind of more broadly spread higher expenses across the company? Speaker 200:36:20Jeff, Tim, it's a good question. I mean, obviously, there's some inflation from a the biggest part of our costs are our people, And obviously, it was demand for talent and us making sure that we retain the best and the brightest to be able to serve our customers. That's something that probably has been not a favorable headwind or not a favorable tailwind for us the last few years. From an actual investment standpoint, I think we try to stay disciplined in what we want to have there. I would say it's safe to say that It's normally, I think, higher than where we thought we might have to be to invest in some of the analytical capabilities to continue to And to really feel like we understand the market, and to really be able to organize the data the way we think we can fully leverage it. Speaker 200:37:09I don't think it's a step function and I don't view it as something that means that it's going to be in perpetuity. But I do think, compared to the comments maybe a couple of years ago, there's continuous investment you need to make. At the level we're at right now, at the level we were at sort of last coming into the year, not necessarily that. And that's one of the things that as we think about the rest of the year where I think we're going to be ultimately a little bit lower than we were coming into the year. But it is safe to say that there's a tail there to that investment. Speaker 200:37:42I think in this operating environment, we're always going to feel some need to invest in the platform. Speaker 900:37:50So I think, at least my thought process was we might kind of have a cliff recovery when you first announced that after a couple of years. It sounds like it's kind of A trickle improvement as efficiencies are gained, some of the expenses decline, But not a return to that original absolute or original relative level because of the Speaker 200:38:14current I think that's fair. I I'll tell you, being in this business myself for since 2006 and the company being around since 66 years. I think efficiency is something we always have to be focused on. 1st and foremost, we have to serve our customers, but we have to do it in the most efficient way. I can tell you that it's something that we talk about as a management team making sure that we are thoughtful about that. Speaker 200:38:43But I don't anticipate A step down, not in the near future here, but it is something that I would say that we're focused on. Speaker 700:38:54All right. Thanks. Speaker 200:38:56Thanks. Operator00:38:58All right. Thank you so much. Please standby while we compile the Q and A roster. And just as a reminder, At this time, I would like to turn it back to Tim Mackey for closing remarks. Speaker 200:39:26Thank you, Jewel. I want to thank everyone for your interest in MGIC. Remind you that we'll be participating in a panel discussion at Mortgage Finance at the BTIG Housing Conference on Monday, May 8. I look forward to talking to all of you in the near future. Hope you have a great rest of your week. Operator00:39:44Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by