RE/MAX Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 5, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the REMAX Holdings First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Abby, and I will be facilitating the audio portion of today's call. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Andy Schultz, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Schultz?

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, Welcome to REMAX Holdings' Q1 2023 earnings conference call. Please visit the Investor Relations section of www.remaxholdings.com For all earnings related materials and to access the live webcast and the replay of the call today. If you are participating through the webcast, Please note that you will need to advance the slides as we move through the presentation. Turning to Slide 2, our prepared remarks Answers to your questions on today's call may contain forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Forward looking statements include those related to agent count, Franchise sales and open offices, financial measures and outlook, brand expansion, competition, technology, housing and mortgage market conditions, Capital allocation, dividends, share repurchases, strategic and operational plans and business models. Forward looking statements represent management's current estimates. REMAX Holdings assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements in the future. Forward looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward looking statements. These are discussed in our Q1 2023 financial results press release and other SEC filings.

Speaker 1

Also, we will refer to certain non GAAP measures on today's Call, please see the definitions and reconciliations of non GAAP measures contained in our most recent quarterly financial results press release, which is available on our website. Joining me on our call today are Steve Joyce, our Chief Executive Officer Terry Callahan, our Chief Financial Officer and the Presidents and CEOs of our brands, Ward Morrison and Nick Bailey. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to REMAX Holdings' CEO, Steve Joyce. Steve?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Andy, and thanks to everyone for joining our call today. Looking at Slide 3, we performed largely as During the Q1 as the housing market continued to adjust to higher interest rates and existing macroeconomic conditions. Given these factors, we anticipated pressure on our U. S. Agent count growth to start the year.

Speaker 2

However, We saw some encouraging trends begin to emerge toward the end of the quarter as the all important spring selling season gets underway. The Q1 had several operational highlights, including agent count growth in Canada and the global regions, We gained momentum in Motto franchise sales and a continued ramp in Wimala's business. We remain squarely focused on growth and we believe We're positioned for improved U. S. Agent count performance in the near term.

Speaker 2

We're executing on the strategic growth initiatives we put in place last year And we remain confident in the upside that they can deliver in the long run. We are also continuing to invest in critical growth related activities such as our annual REMAX and Motto conventions, both of which had robust attendance demonstrating the value our affiliates continue to derive From coming together to share ideas, we are directing our capital opportunistically so that we are best positioned to grow profitably as market conditions improve. Some of our notable quarterly financial highlights included REMAX Holdings total revenue was 85,400,000 down only 6.2% compared to last year. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $19,900,000 And our adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.3%. Carey will address what impacted margins during the quarter later on.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EPS was $0.26 and we continue to execute on our stock buyback program. Regarding the CEO transition, our Board has hired Egon Zehnder, a global leadership advisory firm, To aid in the selection of the company's next leader, Egon Zehnder's robust and comprehensive process will include an evaluation of both internal and external candidates and is expected to be completed this summer. With that, I'll turn it over to Ward.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Steve. Turning to Slide 4. Our franchise sales regained momentum as Q1 unfolded, And we finished the quarter on a strong note. We sold 10 franchises in the Q1. This Q1 sales pace is in line with prior years when we ended with 60 to 70 franchise sales.

Speaker 3

Though it's too early to say we're back at pace, we are encouraged by the solid start to 2023 and the interest we see in the marketplace. We noted last quarter that we witnessed a tight correlation between rising interest rates and a slowdown in our franchise sales since Q2 of last year. As a result, it's positive to see franchise sales accelerate as interest rates began to stabilize in the back half of the quarter. Our pipeline looks good and we expect more encouraging results, especially if the macro environment continues to cooperate. We're continuing to support the growth of our mortgage business by investing in our sales resources.

Speaker 3

In terms of our progress, on the Motto side, we have hired additionally highly qualified sales professionals, We've also experienced some attrition. The good news is we are trending in the right direction and we expect to be fully staffed later this summer. It's an even better story on the WeMo side. We have successfully doubled the size of WeMo's sales force and the results have been measurable. We saw WEMO's business increase month over month throughout the Q1 as we met or exceeded our expectations in terms of both the monthly number of loans submitted And loans cleared to close.

Speaker 3

There are multiple reasons for WEMO's increasing success, including a full sales team with a mature sales process and built in accountability, Increasing enthusiasm for WEMO Services by both our mono network as well as the broader industry, more mono franchises Using the WEMO loan brokering system that is integrated with WEMO processing services and a larger Motto network. Recall that our long term goal is to generate $100,000,000 of annual mortgage related revenue, with half of that coming from Motto and half from WienLoan. For Motto to achieve its $50,000,000 annual revenue target, we need to have between 901,000 franchises open and paying us the full $4,500 per month continuing franchise fee. We believe that we are well on our way toward achieving that goal And the expansion of our sales team should help us get there even faster. On the WEMO side, the math is also fairly straightforward.

Speaker 3

If you assume roughly 6,000,000 mortgages annually with about 20% of those being completed by the broker channel, you arrive at 1,200,000 loans, which is a reasonable proxy For WEMO's current total available market opportunity, if WEMO can capture and process just 60,000 of those loans, The WEMO should hit its $50,000,000 annual revenue target. We believe the growth, success and long term potential of our mortgage business is due to the unique and compelling Value proposition, Motto and WeMo each offer. Ancillary services like mortgage provide real estate entrepreneurs with attractive opportunities to diversify their revenue and earnings, something that is very important during changing market conditions. Over 70% of Motto sales have been to real estate professionals Who are close to the real estate transactions, namely purchase originations, and that proximity is the key to success for many of our franchisees. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Nick.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Ward. Moving to Slide 5. As many of you know, this This is the time of year when several major industry rankings are released. And once again, these reports confirm the leading productivity of REMAX agents. It's a good reminder that REMAX agents are far more productive than their competitors in terms of closing sales, a cornerstone of our value proposition.

Speaker 4

According to the data in the 2023 Real Trends 500 survey, REMAX agents continue to outperform the competition in both transaction size and sales volume on average when compared to the country's largest real estate brokerages. According to the rankings, This is the 13th straight year that REMAX agents outsold competitors by more than 2 to 1 in terms of transaction size. REMAX agents averaged 13.6 transaction sides, whereas all other agents at participating brokerages averaged just 6.2 sides. And REMAX agent sales volume averaged 67% more than our competitors. REMAX also led all brands and brokerages qualifying for the 2023 Real Trends Nation's Best list, a related ranking to the Real Trends 500.

Speaker 4

The performance of the REMAX brokerages on this Prestigious list confirms what we know to be true. REMAX affiliates are a top choice for consumers who want to buy or sell a home, especially as the market rebalances. Turning to Slide 6. After 50 years in business and more than a decade of maintaining the 2:one productivity advantage, We've seen a wide range of economic and housing cycles and we know how to navigate them. While many others are currently cutting back, we're strategically investing in our network to better position us as the market regains momentum.

Speaker 4

We are directing investments to support future growth through our team's initiatives, our focus on conversions, mergers and acquisitions, Our ongoing technology launch and the April launch of MaxRecruit, the most comprehensive growth program we believe we've ever developed. Because MaxRecruit is the most recent announced effort, let's talk about it first. MaxRecruit is a combination of education, Coaching, accountability and resources with a prime focus on building the skills of local affiliates to grow their own brokerages or teams And then coaching them to take consistent action. We rolled it out to U. S.

Speaker 4

Affiliates and the initial response confirmed a significant amount of interest All across the country in learning how to improve the growth of their REMAX brokerager team. For us, the takeaway is clear. REMAX broker owners, managers and team leaders are eager to grow their offices and are willing to invest in the new skills, strategies and systems to support them. Collectively, their agent count growth drives the network's agent count growth. So by helping them build their business, we're building ours as well.

Speaker 4

And a larger network with greater market presence benefits everyone involved. We're very excited about the potential impact MaxRecruit could have on our agent count numbers, both short And long term. In my remarks about MaxRecruit, you may have noticed I mentioned team leaders as well as broker owners. With teams playing such a huge role in the industry now, we absolutely view them as potential catalysts for growth. So MaxRecruit includes team leaders alongside our franchisee.

Speaker 4

It all fits together, larger teams, larger brokerages, larger network. Speaking of larger teams, the Teams pilot Program we launched last August is beginning to drive some additional desired outcomes. In the 5 pilot states of California, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey and Texas, We've added or grown larger teams at a higher rate than we had before. If you recall, the program includes a package of training, technology And attractive economics for teams of 6 or more, whether it's reenacting to 6 members, large teams joining the network or retaining existing teams at a higher rate. This initiative has compelling potential this spring summer as the primary recruiting season progresses.

Speaker 4

Additionally, with respect to our program around brokerage Conversions, mergers and acquisitions, both the numbers of closings and the pipeline continues to grow. We successfully converted or helped some of our existing affiliates merge or acquire many smaller brokerages, and we have more sizable transactions whose announcements are imminent. In fact, one example most recently would be a conversion we just announced yesterday of an independent 70 plus agent office in Long Beach, California. Very exciting news and more to come. We also believe once we announce and publicize additional larger additions, That proof of concept will help build on our momentum, especially for the larger opportunities.

Speaker 4

The rollout of our new technology offering, Max Tech, Powered by kvCORE is continuing at a better than expected pace. We started in Canada late last year and because of its success, we accelerated the U. S. Launch to the 1st week in January, which was 2 months earlier than anticipated. The U.

Speaker 4

S. Rollout is progressing nicely, and we continue to hear very positive feedback from our network. To date, more than 62,000 REMAX agents across the U. S. And Canada have onboarded or are actively in the process of doing so, giving them access to the enhanced capabilities of this industry leading technology.

Speaker 4

Maxtech powered by KV Core is being provided at no additional cost to affiliates, So it represents another major recruiting advantages to brokerages and teams alike. It also represents another REMAX resource that can help agents and teams be even more productive Than they are now. So it's an optimal fit with our network and results oriented culture. One last noteworthy highlight is that we celebrated the 50th anniversary of Greenax at this year's R4 conference in February. With nearly 10,000 agents from 74 countries in attendance, It was the largest conference in 17 years, demonstrating the strong network engagement that exists currently.

Speaker 4

Feedback from attendees confirmed The investments in the strategic direction we're making are both welcomed and creating great excitement within the network. With that, I will turn it over to Keri.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone. Moving to Slide 7, 1st quarter revenue declined approximately 6% to 85,400,000 Excluding the marketing funds, revenue was just over $64,000,000 a decrease of approximately 6% compared to the same period last year. This decrease was driven by negative 5% organic growth and adverse foreign currency movements of 1%. Organic growth decreased primarily due to lower broker fees and to a lesser extent, a reduction in U.

Speaker 5

S. Agent count, partially offset by higher revenue from the annual REMAX agent convention. Higher interest rates continued to adversely impact housing affordability and weakened housing demand, resulting in fewer transactions and by extension lower broker fee revenue. The good news is that overall transaction volume Turning to Slide 8, Q1 selling, operating and administrative expenses increased 2.7% The $49,100,000 due primarily to an increase in expenses associated with our annual REMAX agent convention and bad debt expense, partially offset by lower personnel expenses and lower professional fees. The fantastic attendance at both our REMAX and Motto conventions During the Q1, we enforced the importance of in person education and networking opportunities to our affiliates.

Speaker 5

However, Given the robust participation, related expenses ran a little higher than expected. Additionally, while we believe the overall health Both our REMAX and Motto franchisees remain strong. We have seen a modest decline in collection activity, which negatively impacted bad debt expense during the quarter. This is not surprising given the rebalancing housing market and is consistent with what we have experienced during other periods of macroeconomic uncertainty throughout our 50 year history. We recognize that some small business owners might require a bit of temporary assistance to help them bridge through a rough patch, And that's what we are experiencing right now.

Speaker 5

Moving to Slide 9, before I get to our outlook, there are a couple of items I want to briefly mention. Returning capital to shareholders remains a top priority for us in 2023. While we have slowed the pace of our buyback for the time being Given our current valuation. Turning to guidance, last quarter, I noted this may be the most challenging environment in which to forecast future results I have seen in my 7 years as CFO, and I still feel that way today. While there are reasons to be more optimistic about the housing market for the balance of 2023, There is still a fair amount of uncertainty and we remain guarded from a forecasting standpoint.

Speaker 5

We believe we are currently trending under the midpoint of our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance The company's Q2 and full year 2023 outlook assumes no further currency movements, acquisitions or divestitures. For the Q2 of 2023, we expect agent count to change negative 0.5 percent to 0.5% over Q2 2022 revenue in a range of $79,000,000 to $84,000,000 including revenue from the marketing funds in a range of $20,000,000 to $22,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA in a range of $24,500,000 to $27,500,000 For the full year 2023, we expect agent count to change negative 1% to 1% Over full year 2022, revenue in a range of $315,000,000 to $335,000,000 including revenue from the marketing funds in a range of $83,500,000 to $87,500,000 and adjusted EBITDA in a range of 95,000,000 $105,000,000 Now, I'll turn the call over to Pete for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Gary. Looking at Slide 10, we remain focused on our long term strategic objectives and we are continuing to invest in our ability to grow profitably in the future. Our priorities are to reinvigorate our U. S. Agent count growth and accelerate the expansion of our promising mortgage business.

Speaker 2

We are executing on our strategic initiatives announced last year. We believe each of our initiatives has the prospect of boosting our organic growth rate And driving meaningful value over the longer term. Though the macroeconomic climate has dampened their near term impact, We believe our initiatives will pay increasing dividends when the housing industry resumes growing again. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our first question from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks and good morning. Just carry on the bad debt matter, can you talk about just maybe historically how long it takes For this stuff to play out because you mentioned it shouldn't be a big surprise given what's happening in the market. Wondering if you can maybe dimensionalize like historically like What you're reserving for dollar wise or what's on the watch list or just how you approach it?

Speaker 7

Sure. So good morning, Toni. Thanks for

Speaker 5

the question. When we look at bad debt expense and

Speaker 7

we have looked at it on a historical basis, I think there's a couple of things to keep in mind. First, when you look at it year over year and if you look at the last couple of years since the pandemic, we've really had very strong collections

Speaker 5

And really kind of abnormally positive,

Speaker 7

consistent with our historical trends. If we go back and look Kind of pre pandemic Q1 of 2019, bad debt expense levels were very comparable to where they are now on a smaller base because that was prior to So we're kind of getting back to business as usual, given what's happening in the end market, a little bit of volatility. We have seen actually even some encouraging trends in collections in April activity as well. So it didn't it wasn't something that really caught us by We know that obviously the end market is a little bit challenging, but we are encouraged with some of the activity that we've even seen from a collection perspective in April.

Speaker 6

So the anticipation is that this level is not one that's going to that should deteriorate further that You're kind of where you think you would normally be in this environment?

Speaker 7

Yes. So we think based on where we were in Q1 and based on a little bit what we've seen In April, we expect actually Q2 and the rest of the year to come down just a little bit from what we saw in the Q1. I'm kind of getting down to that maybe that $0.75 of a $1,000,000 run rate basis on a quarterly basis for the rest of the year.

Speaker 6

Okay. Got it. And then do you have a view on just where you think rates might need to go to See a bit more of a move up in existing home sales. I mean, just given you all have a lot of data and experience, what would you think would be A level that we'd see a real pickup in existing home sales.

Speaker 2

Nick, why don't you take that?

Speaker 4

Sure. Well, I think what we're seeing is part of the rebalance with rates overall is we're seeing a little bit better consumer confidence as we come into the spring market of Kind of rates stabilizing a bit. And even though we believe this year that we'll see them bounce around somewhat, we're still when you look at the overall, say average over The last 10 years, rates are not that high. They're just still in comparison to what they were 2 years ago. So What we've seen historically over the past just short term quarter or 2 is even when rates are dropping 25, 50 basis We see a rush of activity to the market.

Speaker 4

We see showings increase, pending start to go up. So I don't think it's a very big number that's going to drive additional activity.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Ward, any additional thoughts?

Speaker 3

No, I think just the stabilization is the key so far this year. By getting sort of in a stable range that the consumer Really is having to decide is now the right time, and I think they are. I think they're starting to move off the fence. I think the spring selling season is starting to go, and I think of that's tied to the interest rate stability in the market today.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from John Campbell with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. Good morning. Good morning. Maybe this one hey, good morning. Maybe this one is for Nick, but I'm hoping you guys can provide an update on the competitive landscape, kind of what Seeing and hearing also from agents.

Speaker 8

The surveys we run tell us that agents are increasingly willing to stay with where they're at. I'm curious if your retention levels or rate of Attrition is nearing that. And then additionally, if you could speak to any changes you might be seeing in the market from a competitive standpoint?

Speaker 2

Well, John, we're watching your reports, just so we're clear here. But Nick, why don't you take a shot at it?

Speaker 4

Sure. In terms of competitive landscape, I think we're seeing a couple of things. 1st and foremost, we're not seeing competitors write large checks and signing bonuses There are several competitors that use that as their sole recruiting tool. And so that seems to slow considerably and almost become non existent. The other thing that we're seeing is when you see contraction in the market, just like the total agent count numbers NAR, you're starting to see the contraction, especially after the 1st of the year after licenses renew.

Speaker 4

You do see agents based on their 24 to 36 month renewal cycle. If they are in a company that is free to just hang your license regardless of productivity, Those agents typically stay parked. Where you look at just differences with our organization is we are not known for somewhere just Park a license if you're not productive. And so those companies that are maybe see people that stay. But where we're seeing the most movement We've moved from, say, 2 years ago, agents trying to maybe save $100 a month to now agents are saying, I need another closing.

Speaker 4

And this is where our productivity comes in and has maintained we've maintained the course even last year despite the changes Of the 2 to 1 that I mentioned in the scripted remarks on productivity, but that's where we're seeing the most activity in our recruiting numbers right now is Agents need more deals and that's where our competitive advantages we believe that will shine this year.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's helpful. And Steve, thanks for reading our report. I didn't know anybody actually read those. I'm kidding.

Speaker 8

But Carrie, on the guidance, if I run through the math of the 1Q actuals and then what you implied for kind of the 2Q midpoint And work that off your annual guidance. You're assuming a 5% lower back half revenue, but an 18% lift in EBITDA. So Pretty meaningful step up in margin. You spoke to the lower margin R4 revenue. You also talked to some of the challenges with the collections.

Speaker 8

I'm thinking that explains a good portion of the lift from the front half. But if I look at your implied back half guidance versus last year, You're assuming that EBITDA drops at basically the same rate as revenues. That'd be a we think that'd be a very good outcome for you guys just given how Heavily your cost base weighs towards fixed cost. So is there a looming cost action that will help offset that revenue decline? Or am I missing something else It's worth calling

Speaker 5

out. No, I mean, I

Speaker 7

think you're right. As you looked at kind of the front half of the year, John, in terms of what really kind of weighed on margins in the Q1 with respect to increased costs associated with the convention as well as bad debt expense. If we look at bad debt expense on the back half of the year, although we expect it To moderate a little bit, it's still going to be up a little bit year over year. I think the best way to maybe think about it is on a kind of an SO and A run rate basis. For the rest of the year, we're kind of looking in that $40,000,000 range.

Speaker 7

So maybe that helps or $40,000,000 per quarter. And so maybe that helps Kind of triangulate what you're looking at.

Speaker 8

Okay. We'll take a look

Speaker 2

at that. Thank you so much.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Tommy McJoynt with KBW. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Could you give a little more details on the Teams initiatives? And perhaps just start off just rehashing kind of how long it's been live and its geography? And if you can give any more numbers kind of on the pickup and like how many teams you've seen, whether it's just smaller REMAX Teams forming up to be on larger teams or it's actually recruitment of teams from other brokerages.

Speaker 9

And then ultimately, what would you say has been sort of net revenue And earnings or margin impact from the formation of those teams?

Speaker 2

Yes. So the results are sort of now starting To build, which is what's been really encouraging. Nick, why don't you go through that the sort of what we've experienced and then what we're hearing and looking at for the Couple of months.

Speaker 4

Sure. Thanks, Steve. So we started and announced the pilot August of last year and it was intended to be a 12 month pilot, which we're still looking at. We're looking at the results of it in 3 categories. And although we're not prepared to share specific numbers, it was, do we have current teams expanding to 6 plus, So getting larger, are we recruiting teams at a higher rate of 6 plus and are we retaining our teams of 6 plus Those are the 3 categories that we're using to benchmark.

Speaker 4

We can just say at this point that we're still just over midway in the pilot, so there will be more to report later this year. And I mentioned the 5 states that it includes currently. We're going to continue to watch those results over the next quarter or 2 and determine what our final course of action is for teams across The entire U. S. But I can tell you that we're seeing in all three of the categories that we're measuring, an uptick and positive signs in all three, so more to come.

Speaker 2

Yes. And I think from our standpoint and we talked about this when we launched it, our view was We need to do something significant to reduce the amount of defections we were getting in our larger teams. And our view is we came out with a very aggressive program that's been well received. The conversation is very positive. And in the 3 categories that Nick mentioned, particularly the retention category, we're starting to see what we were hoping to see.

Speaker 2

And so While it's still early, our sense is we've done something that has shifted the tide of what was occurring. And then the real question for us is and to share numbers with you would be and how much have we shifted it. And so partly it was defensive because we wanted to retain the teams that we had, We also put in a significant component after going after competitive teams as well and that seems to be working and so we'll see how well.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thanks. And then on a different topic, does the guidance contemplate Any increased costs around potential litigation that might be slated for later in the year, whether it be Legal fees or actual like settlement costs. Just is there any kind of numbers kind of baked into the guidance?

Speaker 2

Carrie?

Speaker 5

Yes. So with respect to

Speaker 7

the guidance from that perspective, it does include, our just ongoing professional fees to defend the company with regards to any

Speaker 2

Got it.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Derek.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning. Just a couple

Speaker 10

of quick ones from me. Just Starting with the guidance on the adjusted EBITDA, I think you talked about maybe trending a little bit below Sort of the midpoint, if I heard that correctly. Maybe can you talk about what are some of the moving pieces? Is it agent count? Is it margin?

Speaker 10

Some of the bad debt, just maybe can you talk a little bit about what's the moving pieces there?

Speaker 7

So, sure. So, we're very happy with obviously how the company is performing in light

Speaker 5

of things. It's So, it's

Speaker 7

a difficult time to forecast on, obviously, on the full year. As I mentioned earlier, bad debt expense and some of the headwinds that we had in the Q1 As part of that, and then we're just kind of being pragmatic in terms of, where we see the top line as well. So it's a little bit of combination in terms of The ongoing investments in the business, bad debt expense and a little bit of volatility on the top line.

Speaker 2

Yes. And then I think when we look at it, we started the quarter kind of with a question mark as to, okay, We have forecasted it to be sort of at the rate we were at the end of the year and that sort of played out during the quarter. The interesting thing and the encouraging thing I think and I wouldn't read too much into it, but in March, things look like They were turning up. Motto had a nice turnaround in March that looks like that momentum will continue after Pretty shaky end of the year and beginning of the year. And so we're encouraged by that.

Speaker 2

And then On the M and A side, clearly, we're making a lot of progress. Nick's team has The most robust set of companies that we've been working with in a long time Set up and a lot of those deals are beginning to come in. And then we already talked about the team's initiative. And so we'll see how the year goes and See what the macro environment is. We've got a lot of upside because we did not bake any in as we were very clear.

Speaker 2

And so if we get any uptick at all, then that's going to be very positive For us, and particularly as it relates to mortgage fees, that is a strong flow through. So that will help margins if that ticks up as well. So our view is we're doing what we said we're going to do. We're investing in the business. We're continuing to return capital to shareholders, particularly through the dividend.

Speaker 2

And we're looking at what could be an improving environment and if that environment improves, that's not baked into our numbers. And so our sense is We're seeing some positive signs and we'll see if they if that continues through the rest of the year.

Speaker 10

Great. That's helpful. And just switching gears to the cash flow statement, I see $3,000,000 of operating cash flow in the quarter, Which seems like a pretty low conversion versus the adjusted EBITDA. Maybe can you talk about are there any sort of timing or one timers? And how do we think about that EBITDA conversion to cash flow for the full year?

Speaker 10

Thanks.

Speaker 5

Sure. Sure. So the Q1 is always seasonally low for

Speaker 7

us as we look at earnings to free cash flow conversion. Our R4 convention this year was a little bit spendier given the 50th anniversary celebration and that was also contributing So some of the pressure that we saw in

Speaker 5

the Q1 from a margin perspective that's also flowing through to

Speaker 7

the full year. So expect the seasonality of the industry and of the business to pick up. And as we look at it on a full year basis, kind of looking at earnings to free cash flow on an adjusted EBITDA basis, Kind of in that 50% to 55% range. So getting back and really kind of being a hallmark of the business.

Speaker 10

Great. And my last one, I think I had in my note on the management search, CEO search transition, That could be stale, but is there any updates on that, on how that's going? How you guys are thinking about that? Or do I have that wrong?

Speaker 2

No, no, no, we updated. So, no, we've hired Zugan and Endrick and they're a well known recruiting firm, particularly as it relates to CEO searches and part of the reason we hired them is they have a very thorough and analytical approach to vetting candidates. We're vetting candidates both internally and externally. And what we said was that based on The current program and progress that we would fully expect to be bringing in Permanent leader, CEO,

Speaker 4

sometime this summer.

Speaker 10

Okay. And that's still the target?

Speaker 2

Yes. Okay. Excellent. Thanks so much. Helpful.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning. First one here on U. S. Agent It's ticked down sequentially here for 3 quarters, but I think you also noted some more positive trends there later in the Q1. So can you provide some more detail on what you're seeing there?

Speaker 11

What specifically drove the more positive trends later in the quarter? And just Generally, I guess, how you're thinking about U. S. Agent count over the rest of the year?

Speaker 2

Nick, you want to take that?

Speaker 4

Sure. So starting in Q1, when we look at January, what we believe that we see and have seen there In January, as we see our brokers kind of do a roster cleanup, if you will. Based on our model, I mentioned earlier, we're not known for a place to licenses for non productive. And so after the 1st of the year, we do see that. I think that also is combined with the fact that there was Seasonality, roster cleanup and rebalancing of the market kind of all took place simultaneously through the end of Q4 and the beginning of Q1.

Speaker 4

But as we finished through or went through Q1, we saw those losses or we saw improvements to the agent count overall. And we're walking into Q2, which is kind of that prime recruiting season. And that combined with the initiatives and MaxRecruit that we mentioned, We are optimistic of how that will continue to reverse the trend of the 1st of the year for many reasons, but also Continue to hopefully drive growth throughout the rest of the year.

Speaker 11

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe for Ward on Motto franchise sales Picking back up, I guess anything to call out there in terms of who's opening up new franchisees or franchises between existing REMAX franchisees versus maybe those not Previously affiliated with REMAX. It also sounds like sales productivity has been good there even with some higher attrition. So I guess, have you had to make any changes there to stem that to get I think you talked about getting to full sales capacity this summer.

Speaker 11

So just any detail there?

Speaker 3

Sure. I think the biggest thing is we continue to sell a majority, over 70% to real estate companies and real estate teams. There has been an uptick, I would say, in independent real estate companies and real estate teams recently. And I think that just comes from When rates have changed, when things have slowed down a little bit in the real estate industry, they realize they need to get in ancillary services. And so we are The right connection to get into that, particularly in the mortgage segment.

Speaker 3

So I think that's where we've seen the most of our interest is from Real estate companies who saw a little bit of a slowdown in the real estate side said, hey, we need to make sure we're going across the transaction, mortgage title, insurance, etcetera. I think Motto has been a good fit. So as our salespeople have gone out, they really are concentrated on those real estate companies that have purchased originations. And that's where we're seeing the most impact right now. So we're feeling positive about it for the rest of the year.

Speaker 3

We'll see what the macro dictates. But as that rate

Operator

And we will take our last question from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman and Associates. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Just one on Canada. I guess, A, I'm hoping maybe you can give us just an update generally Macro, how things are trending directionally, maybe relative to the U. S.

Speaker 12

Housing market? And then on the agent count side of things, obviously Canada has seen very strong growth the last couple of years, Good year over year numbers. On a sequential basis, there was a little tick down, and I think that's the first time we've seen that in maybe 10 quarters. So I guess I'm just curious is that a function of maybe kind of broader macro dynamics within Canada? Or is that Maybe a function of just having that really strong growth the last couple of years on top of really good penetration that you already have in Canada.

Speaker 12

Any thoughts

Speaker 2

there would be helpful. Thank you. Yes. So I'll let Nick cover this in detail. So in general, we're It's still a positive sign, but yes, the Canadian market weakened, not as much as the U.

Speaker 2

S. Market, but it is partly that is driving some of those results. But From the standpoint of, particularly in the agency account growth, we still see it as a very strong positive, which makes The acquisition we made a year and a half ago, all that much more positive for us. And so Nick, do you want to cover off kind of the broader market and then how we're doing?

Speaker 4

Sure. Well, speaking of Canada, I think we experienced some similarities in both Canada and the U. S. With the timing of Interest rate changes, some rebalancing of the market. Canada was a little unique and they had a couple of things happen with the announcement of their 3 year immigration plan Combined and that was partly to fill the need for new construction and housing labor, but it was also combined With the fact that they put somewhat of a moratorium on international buyers.

Speaker 4

And so we've seen this before in Canada. Usually when those announcements are made, we see the market react, which I think is what we did over about 90 days. But the good news is in looking at Canada, the number one driver that I think contributes to the ongoing growth there is the amount of market share. There are areas in Canada, on average, we have Number one market share in a vast majority of the markets where we're located. And it's not just number 1, but it's upwards of, in many cases, 30%, in some markets even higher.

Speaker 4

And so carrying that type of market share consistently across the country contributes to driving a lot of continued growth. And since then, especially since the 1st of the year, we did see Canada decline a little bit, but we've already seen that rebound even faster than what we've experienced In the U. S. And so we continue to have some really positive signs as we move through 2023 in Canada.

Speaker 2

Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

And with no further questions, I will now turn the call back to Andy Schultz for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. That concludes today's call. Thank you to everyone for joining us. Have a great weekend.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
RE/MAX Q1 2023
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