AerSale Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 9, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aerosale Inc. 1st Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded on Tuesday, May 9, 2023.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to Christine Padron, VP of Compliance. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon. I'd like to welcome everyone to Airfield's Q1 2023 earnings call. Conducting the call today are Nick Donazo, Chief Executive Officer and Martin Garmandia, Chief Financial Officer. Before we discuss this quarter's results, we want to remind you that all statements made on this call that do not relate to matters of historical facts Should be considered forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding our current expectations for the business and our financial performance. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, Uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results.

Speaker 1

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward looking statements are discussed in the Risk Factors Section of the company's annual report on Form 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2022, Filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, on March 7, 2023, and its other filings with the SEC. These findings identify and address other important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those indicated by the We'll also refer to non GAAP measures that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business. A reconciliation of those non GAAP metrics to the nearest GAAP metrics can be found in the earnings presentation materials made available on the Investors section of the Aersoil website at ir. Airsoil.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick Sinaldo.

Speaker 2

Thank you for that explanation, Christine. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. I'll begin with a brief overview of the quarter and provide operational updates before turning the call over to Martin to review the numbers in greater detail. Our first Quarter results were in line with our expectations and reflect the cadence of flight equipment sales we shared last quarter. This resulted in total 1st quarter sales of $78,300,000 compared to $122,800,000 in the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 2

I would remind investors that the prior year quarter included the sale of a highly modified 37 aircraft that was used for air aware testing in our TechOps segment, which added $24,000,000 in high margin sales. The remaining decline compared to the prior year period was entirely the result of the timing of whole asset sales as we had $27,700,000 in aircraft and engine sales during the Q1 of 2023 compared to $51,900,000 in the Q1 of 2022. Excluding the sale of whole assets and the ex AeroWare 737, the remainder of our business grew approximately 8 year over year as strong growth in our TechOps segment more than offset a modest decline in Asset Management. As we note every quarter, it is important for investors to analyze AerSale on a full year basis and assess feedstock and whole asset sales to fully capture our performance as quarterly sales volatility is common based on the size of flight equipment transactions. Further, while flight equipment sales add substantial variability by quarter, It is important to understand that these activities are an essential, profitable and recurring component of our end to end solution.

Speaker 2

Specific to 2023, we continue to expect higher whole asset sales related to our 757 P2F conversion program in the second half. As a result, the year over year quarterly comparisons will be more dramatic as we report this year, as 2022 was heavier weighted toward whole asset sales in the first half. Further, we expect the success of our feedstock acquisitions, which have included nearly $125,000,000 in awarded deals year to date to bolster our second half results. Turning to profitability, our adjusted EBITDA in the Q1 of 2023 was $5,000,000 or 6.4% of sales compared to $29,900,000 or 24.3% of sales in the prior year period. The lower EBITDA margin observed in the period resulted from lower cost absorption from lower sales during the quarter, combined with an unfavorable mix from fewer high margin whole asset sales.

Speaker 2

At the segment level and beginning with asset management, 1st quarter sales were $48,400,000 compared to $74,500,000 in the prior year period, primarily the result of lower flight equipment sales and planned reductions in our aircraft lease portfolio. In the Q1 of 2023, we sold 1 engine, 1 airframe and 2 aircraft. This compares to 6 aircraft And 4 engines that we sold in the prior year quarter. Looking forward to the balance of the year, we continue to expect flight equipment sales to be stronger This expectation is supported by a very strong feedstock acquisition cycle at the start of the year, combined with forecasted deliveries of 757 P2F aircraft. As Martin will detail in our guidance, We've subcontracted for an additional 12 conversions from multiple providers, of which one has been completed and sold in Q1 and 8 more are expected to be completed over the remainder of 2023 and 3 in Q1 2024.

Speaker 2

In our USM Parts business, airframe and engine part sales were roughly flat compared to the prior year, which despite a stronger commercial backdrop was constrained somewhat by lower feedstock purchased in 2022, resulting in less feedstock available for sale in early 2023. As noted, we expect sales from feedstock to improve materially as the year progresses based on asset acquisitions completed year to date. In our leasing portfolio, Revenue was down compared to the prior year as we had only 1 aircraft and fewer engines on lease during the period. As a reminder to investors, we're agnostic to the type of sale in our asset management business and seek to maximize return on investment on feedstock Through the highest return in current market conditions between USM Parts, Sales, Leasing or Whole Assets. As a result, we decided to sell our remaining aircraft on lease during the quarter, a 730seven-four 100 freighter, As we concluded that the ROI associated with continued leasing would be significantly less than a sale in a very favorable market for this type of flight equipment.

Speaker 2

In our TechOps segment, reported sales were $29,800,000 compared to $48,300,000 in the prior year. Excluding the $24,000,000 sale of the X Airwear 737 in 2022, Our underlying sales grew 22.7% as a stronger commercial aerospace backdrop and better MRO availability Bolstered volume in the quarter. In our Engineered Solutions unit, we made substantial progress in Our effort to obtain FAA approval of our enhanced FlightVision system, Airwear product during the quarter. We've been testing this product on 2 aircraft since August 2020 in order to be issued a supplemental type certificate, may hear me refer to as an STC, and to commercialize this product. As part of the certification process, The FAA required among other things that we prove this system through FAA observed flight tests With the FAA scheduling 5 sets of flight tests beginning in February 2023, we successfully completed the first four sets of flight tests From February through the end of April, the most important of which proved that the enhanced FlightVision capability Met the criteria set out by both AirSail and the FAA for STC certification.

Speaker 2

We're currently working diligently to schedule the 5th set of flight tests, which will complete the flight testing aspect of the certification process. We expect this to occur once our engineering team has completed a minor software change to address FAA comments from the first four flights. The FAA approval process is lengthy and exhaustive to ensure public safety, which is underscored by the excellent safety record of the U. S. Commercial aviation network.

Speaker 2

Through this process, we have continually approved this Improve the system to near perfection and as a result, we believe the safety and quality aspects of our advanced technology product is superior to anything available on the commercial market today. Further, given the substantial investment of time and resources To obtain an STC of this complexity, we believe we'll be in an excellent position to become the market leader in the category. To that end, after demonstrating to the FAA how the system worked in low visibility conditions, the feedback was very complementary. We're excited to be near completion considering all the positive comments from the FAA and the interest of multiple potential customers. Turning to capital allocation and our feedstock program.

Speaker 2

We remain ready with ample liquidity to execute on equipment packages that satisfy our financial requirements. In total, we have more than $230,000,000 of capital to deploy to support our growth strategy comprised of $87,000,000 on our balance sheet and an additional $150,000,000 undrawn on our revolver. As we noted several weeks ago during our year end call, we had a notable uptick in feedstock availability at year end and into the 1st couple of months of the year. Year to date, we have won nearly $125,000,000 in flight equipment packages with slightly over $50,000,000 already closed and another $70,000,000 awarded and in the process of closing. We expect this added inventory to support our full year projections and drive a stronger second half of the year.

Speaker 2

To add further context, this rate of feedstock acquisitions compares to just $50,000,000 in all of 2022 and is the most important leading indicator to the future performance of our Asset Management segment. Before turning the call over to Martin, I would also like to welcome Andrew Levy to our Board of Directors, which we announced in April. Andrew joins us with over 3 decades of corporate and entrepreneurial experience in the aviation and telecommunications sectors, And he brings a wealth of knowledge to AerSale as a founder of Legionnaire, his work as the CFO of United and as the founder of Avelo Airlines. We're thrilled to have Andrew on the Board and we look forward to working with him. To conclude, We're exactly where we expected to be as of the Q1 and we continue to make progress in securing the feedstock we need to drive higher volume in the back half of the year.

Speaker 2

On Airwear, we have passed significant milestones to being awarded our STC and look forward to the final steps of the certification process. I would like to thank all our employees for their dedication to AerSale and for their efforts to delivering on our commitments to all our stakeholders. Now, I'll turn the call over to Martin for a closer look at the numbers. Martin? Thanks, Nick.

Speaker 2

Now we'll start

Speaker 3

with an overview of our Q1 financial performance and end with our guidance for 2023. Our first quarter revenue was $78,300,000 which included $27,700,000 of flight equipment sales, Comprising of 2 cargo aircraft, 1 airframe and 1 engine. Our revenue in the Q1 of 2022 was $122,800,000 and included $75,900,000 of flight equipment sales consisting of 6 aircraft and 4 engines. Excluding flight equipment, the company's continued to demonstrate underlying growth as our base revenue increased to $50,600,000 from $46,900,000 in the prior year. As we have pointed out during multiple earnings calls, flight equipment sales fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter and we believe monitoring our progress based on asset purchases and sales over the long term is more appropriate.

Speaker 3

As a result of these factors, 1st quarter asset management revenue was down 35% to $48,400,000 mainly as a result of lower flight equipment sales consisting of 2 cargo aircraft, 1 airframe and 1 engine. USM Parts sales were close to the prior year quarter levels, but are expected to increase due to improved demand and availability of feedstock going forward. Aircraft leasing revenue was lower because of a planned reduction in the number of aircraft in the leasing portfolio. TechOps revenue fell 38.3 percent to $29,800,000 in the Q1 from $48,300,000 in the year ago period. The decrease is primarily due to the sale of a Boeing 737NG in the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The Boeing 737NG was highly modified for a U. S. Governmental agency and previously used for airwear flight testing. Excluding the aircraft sale, which is not typical in our tech ops segment, sales grew 22.7% As a result of strong demand for MRO services, particularly at our Goodyear on airport facility. As we have mentioned on previous earnings call, Aerosil subcontracted 3rd party providers at the beginning of Q4 of 2022 To perform 12,757 P2F conversions, which were initially planned to be completed at our Goodyear facility.

Speaker 3

In line with our plan, the transition opened up our own capacity to expand volume for 3rd party services and drive revenue and margin growth. 1st quarter gross margin was 31.2% compared to 38% in the Q1 of 2022, largely due to the sales mix in the Q1, which included fewer higher margin flight equipment sales. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $25,200,000 in the Q1 of 2023, which included $2,700,000 of non cash equity based compensation expenses. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $23,800,000 in the Q1 of 2022 and included $3,800,000 of non cash equity based compensation expenses. 1st quarter loss from operations was $800,000 while income from operations was $22,900,000 in the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 3

Net income was $5,000 in the Q1 compared to $17,200,000 in the Q1 of 2022. Adjusted for non cash equity based compensation, mark to market adjustment to the private warrant liability and facility relocation, 1st quarter adjusted net income was $3,300,000 while adjusted net income was $22,200,000 in the Q1 of 2022. 1st quarter diluted earnings per share was $0.00 compared to $0.32 in the Q1 of 2022. Excluding the adjustments mentioned, 1st quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share was 0 point 0 $7 compared to $0.41 for the Q1 of 2022. Our adjusted EBITDA was $5,000,000 in the Q1 of 2023 compared to $29,900,000 in the prior year.

Speaker 3

The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was largely a consequence of lower flight equipment sales. Cash used in operating activities was $62,400,000 primarily as a result of cash deployed to increase inventory availability. Finally, moving to our guidance for 2023. We are reiterating our full year guidance and continue to expect to generate revenue of $460,000,000 to $490,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $70,000,000 to $80,000,000 in 2023. This guidance reflects our expected flight equipment sales during the year and anticipated volume in our ongoing operations.

Speaker 3

Guidance for 2023 does not reflect potential sales of Airwear as the product is in its final stages of approval and will be updated once the SEC is issued and we can assess initial order and delivery schedules. As anticipated, our Q1 results included significantly lower flight equipment sales than in the prior year, which adversely impacted our margins. We expect this trend to continue through the Q2 and improve into the second half of the year. As a reminder, this will produce significant variation in year over year performance as 2022 included record first half flight equipment sales With softness in the second half, while this year is expected to have low flight equipment sales in the first half with a stronger second half. The underlying momentum of our other businesses remains strong and we are confident that they will continue to perform well.

Speaker 3

We expect our second half to be underscored by stronger USM and flight equipment sales, incremental deliveries on our P2F conversion program and supported by a continued recovery in commercial aerospace. We have ample liquidity available to execute on our feedstock acquisition program that will drive revenue and margin growth going forward. With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. You will hear a 3 tone prompt acknowledging your request and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Your first question comes from Bert Subin, Stifel. Bert, please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good afternoon, Nick, Martin.

Speaker 2

Hey, Bert. Good

Speaker 4

afternoon. Hey, maybe on to the USM comments, I think there was an expectation coming into the year that, that was going to pick up Pretty substantially as your feedstock acquisitions were starting to ramp, can you just talk about what you think the revenue tailwind from USM Could be this year versus 2022. And then can you delineate between the USM feedstock acquisitions and feedstock acquisitions That were intended more for the whole asset side, when you were talking about your comments on what you acquired so far this year.

Speaker 2

You want that one? I'll do it. Okay. With regard to the revenue tailwind on USM, We started seeing a pickup of available USM at the end of available feedstock that would feed both USM And whole asset refurbishment and or sale or lease towards the end of 22 and into the Q1 of 2023. And as we announced in the last earnings call, we had under contract $107,000,000 of Stock that was that we were expecting to buy, which consisted really of everything, Aircraft, airframes, engines of all types, CFM56-5s, 7s, A320s, 737s, A330s, I don't know if I'm missing anything, 757s and some of that equipment and I'm not going to give you the breakdown because I don't really have it, but Some of that equipment will end up as whole aircraft that will be fed into our potential aircraft trading and leasing portfolio.

Speaker 2

Some of it will be refurbished as whole engines that will be fed into our engine leasing portfolio and Some of the airframes and engines will be broken down into USM parts. So we're in very good shape based on what we have acquired thus We're not quite we're almost halfway to what we projected to buy for the whole year and we're not yet finished with the first half. The cadence of USM sales follows the purchase the acquisition of USM by anywhere from 90 days to 180 days. And during that time, we're acquiring the equipment, we're completing the records, We're getting it refurbished or modified for ultimate resale as a whole asset or at the PeaceMark level. So we start seeing Sales of that, again, as early as 90 days, if we find something that doesn't need much work, but it could be as late as 180 days.

Speaker 2

So that if you think about what we've acquired thus far in the first half, it will start making substantial results in our second half. And what we're buying in the second half, some of it, although not a substantial portion of it, but some of it We'll be available for sale or lease or sale at the Peace Park level in the second half, but most of it that we buy in the second half We'll flow into 2024. I think that was your first question. I don't remember your second one.

Speaker 4

No, no, that's good. So just to clarify the 112, that's the year to date number or what was the period through which that was?

Speaker 2

125 is year to date as of 2. So we're not finished.

Speaker 4

Yes, got it. Okay, thanks for that. And on the 757 deliveries, I think you mentioned the cadence. Could you just say what that was again? I think you had 9 this year and 3 scheduled for the Q1 of 'twenty four.

Speaker 4

Of those 757s, how many will you do you already own? How many do you need to acquire? And are you seeing any sort of impact from lower demand in the cargo market?

Speaker 2

So we now have all the flight equipment we need To flight both aircraft and engines to accommodate the 12 Conversions that we've committed to, 1st actual aircraft was converted and was sold in the Q1. So there's 11 left. So we still expect to have this year 8 more aircraft available for They will become available for sale or lease and then there will be 3 into we think in the Q1 of 2024. So we started off slow because of the delay in getting a second or third provider by our SEC holder Precision. But now everything is on track and we are set to have deliveries of again 8 more aircraft this year and 3 next year.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. And just my final question, I'll turn it back over. It sounds like Airwares getting pretty close to the finish line. Once that 5th flight test is completed, are there any additional hurdles you'd have to clear? I mean, not flight testing, but sort of otherwise with the FAA?

Speaker 4

Or Do they become compelled, I guess, at that time to rule? And assuming this does clear that final stage, can you just Talk about what steps you've taken thus far towards booking initial customer and once you get a customer, ultimately how the revenue flows, if you actually have to wait until you outfit half of the fleet or any sort of dynamics around

Speaker 2

it? So actually that varies. It's varying from customer to customer. Some customers have indicated that they I want the system until operational until they get half the fleet. Other customers don't seem to it doesn't seem to matter to them.

Speaker 2

They want whatever they can get as soon as they can get it. Everybody wants to know when the system is going to become available. We're working diligently. We're definitely on track To build the number of installed kits that we indicated at the beginning of the year that we would be at 100 for the year, I think we're at 55 already and we're not at the halfway point. So we're and we're increasing that now to 15 per month.

Speaker 2

So we're on track to have available the kits we need to start selling. Elbit still has Elbit and Universal still has to produce the hardware, so we can finish the installations. We've got to find A customer that is ready to take these kits now, as soon as we get this thing approved, Pilots will have to do pilot training. We may have to make modifications to their simulators so that they can do simulator training with the System installed in their simulator and that process is going to take time, which is why even if we have orders Soon after we receive the STC, it's going to take time before the airlines can take them into their system and start using them. But we are talking to multiple customers.

Speaker 2

It's not just one. We've got tremendous interest from all the customers we've talked to. The more and more customers want to fly the airplane. When we get them on the airplane and they fly it, They're amazed candidly at the system. If they're lucky enough to fly it in bad weather conditions, they can appreciate what this system will do for them when they face inclement weather and potentially have to divert their aircraft to other airports.

Speaker 2

So Good customer feedback thus far, multiple customers that we're talking to, including still nothing's changed. The major customer we've been talking to That I said, I am still optimistic will be our launch customer for a substantial number of aircraft, a large U. S. Domestic. Thanks a lot, Nick.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets. Ken, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, good afternoon, Nick and Martin.

Speaker 3

Hey, Ken. Hey, Ken.

Speaker 5

Hey, Nick. Maybe initially, just on the 757s, for the 8, you expect to get Back this year out of conversion and then the 3 in 24, how many of those are under some sort of purchase agreement Or how many do you still have left to just sort of get customer commitments for? And is this a risk that you see? And what would be the timing of sort of locking up Contracts for these aircraft.

Speaker 2

So one of the questions I didn't answer was, is there a softness in the freight market? And the answer is Generally, yes, there is clearly a softness in the freight market. Now, is there a softness in the freight market With customers operating 757s and I would say the answer to that is no. Is there a supply of 757s converted freighters available to satisfy that demand. The answer to that is no.

Speaker 2

Now, Airlines are tight or cargo airlines today are tight. They're holding on to cash. So the easy ability to sell these Into a market that where you've got cargo carriers beating 757s that are flushed with cash, it's not so easy this year. So it clearly is a challenge for us to find a way to get the customers, the cash customers that can pay cash And by these airplanes, the preference would be selling them for cash, but the alternative is to put them out on leases and we are talking with both cash customers And lease customers, if we put aircraft out on lease, we have historically found customers that would take the aircraft on a longer term lease At an ROI that was less desirable for us, but very desirable for a financial buyer. So we have sold aircraft when we put them on lease 2 financial buyers.

Speaker 2

So if we go the lease route because we've been unable to find the number of Purchase customers at the time these aircraft get delivered, we will seek to put them out on lease. We're not going to sit on aircraft if we can help it. We will place them one way or the other and there are multiple ways to sell an aircraft. It doesn't just have to be one you sell naked. Matter of fact, the first aircraft we sold were Aircraft that we sold on lease.

Speaker 2

I think there's another question I can answer.

Speaker 5

Well, I guess how many I guess maybe how many of the 8 this year or 11 total then are currently under contract or it sounds like maybe none of them are?

Speaker 2

No, no, I'm not going to say that. We have some under contract, not all of the ones that we had put in our forecast. So That is clearly a risk factor for us. We're working hard on it. Again, good thing is that we've got pretty much the balance of available 757s That can be converted to freighter.

Speaker 2

The remaining ones, we've got them all. So we've got some work to do. And yes, it is a risk. I'm not going to deny it that we that Buying a purchaser for all of these is something that we've got to continue working on, but we are still optimistic that we will. And if we don't, we'll put them out on lease and maybe we'll sell them with lease attached.

Speaker 2

So nothing has changed as far as our view on how we will perform on that package. It may slip to the right a little bit, but we don't know that yet. I mean, we still have plenty of time left in the year and we have a lot of aircraft that some of which are committed that are early deliveries and the later ones are the ones that we've got to work on. And I'm not going to give you the specific numbers. I don't think that that's I think that that's not something that's worth that we should be discussing at this point.

Speaker 5

Okay. No, that's fair, Nick. So I think you indicated, I mean, last year, you did in asset sales excluding the 737, the Airwear test aircraft you sold, you did about 200,000,000 In asset sales, it sounds like the Q2 from an asset sale standpoint looks to be similar to the Q1 And then you see a pretty significant step up in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Are the 3rd and 4th quarters similar with your visibility And how do we think about sort of this progression through the year for whole asset sales? I can appreciate there's risk around what gets leased and timing, but how does it look under the current plan?

Speaker 2

Well, it's definitely back end loaded The second half of the year, I think that we'll only have one additional aircraft that's available in this Next quarter. And it would be late in the we think it's going to be late in June. So even delivering that airplane to a customer This quarter is going to be problematic because of how late it isn't being delivered. That changes a lot once we get into the 3rd and 4th quarter were just everything is on track. It's already in work.

Speaker 2

While most of it is in work, it's they're all in position. They all are where they need to be to get converted. So there's no delivery delays in getting equipment where it needs to be. And things are on track as far as how getting the aircraft input and getting them out.

Speaker 5

Okay. And I think

Speaker 2

I was just going to read it.

Speaker 5

I think Okay. I think you I capture. I think, obviously, 125,000,000 you've got agreements or committed for. What's the full year Target for capital deployed for whole asset or asset acquisitions, I think you indicated $250,000,000 I wanted to make sure we got that correctly. Correct.

Speaker 4

$250,000,000 Okay, perfect. And we

Speaker 5

think All right, I'll pass it back.

Speaker 2

And we think at the rate we're going, that is a reasonable expectation.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Great. Are you starting to see go ahead. Thank you.

Operator

My apologies. Thank you. Your next question comes from Michael Scarmoli, Truist Securities. Michael, please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good evening, guys.

Speaker 4

Nick, just

Speaker 6

how are you?

Speaker 2

Good. How are you? Good.

Speaker 6

How are you? Just on Arrowware. Good, good. You mentioned Software modifications were something that the FAA came back with. Can you maybe give some details if you can on what they were looking for?

Speaker 6

And I'm And then just really what needs to happen after that 5th flight assuming everything goes well?

Speaker 2

So we've already between us, the FA and Elbit Universal, we've already identified A very minor software switch to get the system to perform better And we observed on some of the flights, not all the flights, but on some of the flights. So we've reviewed that with the FAA. We all agreed on it. As a matter of fact, they came up with the same solution we did independently. It's been tested now in the lab.

Speaker 2

So we know that it works in the lab. We are installing it in our aircraft. So we're going to make the software patch in the aircraft. And it's really just changing And input from one source to another and we think it solves we're confident it solves the problem because we saw it in the lab. Once we test it And if we see that it works in the airplane exactly like it works on the lab, which is our expectation and we have high confidence of that because of what we've done.

Speaker 2

It's Not complicated. We'll tell the FAA, hey, we're ready to start the last sets of flight tests. What will the FAA do? That's about 20 hours of flying, I think they've given us.

Speaker 3

20 hours.

Speaker 2

That they wanted, it could be less. Basically, they just want to fly the airplane with Pilots can see how reliable it is over a 20 hour period. That will be scheduled. We I'm pretty confident that once we get on their schedule, we'll finish that in a week. I don't think it should take more than 4 or 5 days.

Speaker 2

And that's pretty full days of flying. Now that assumes that Everything that we expect to perform, performs as it does. And that they see the reliability of the system, which We've got over 300 hours on the aircraft already between the first and second aircraft. So other than this one minor anomaly that which we observed On long flights, we think we're there. I mean, we think the system does what it's supposed to do.

Speaker 2

And we'll demonstrate that the FA. Now, When they're done, they're going to review the results of the software change. They're going to assemble all of their paperwork. And typically, Typically, you get the SEC within 30 days. Could take longer, could take less.

Speaker 2

Some of the things we're going to ask the FAA to do is to work concurrently With reviewing all the paperwork between now and the time we start doing the final flight testing. When will we get the final flight testing done that last set of tests? I don't know. And so I know you guys are going to press me on, When is that going to be? What's the best case and the worst case?

Speaker 2

I'm not going to say. I've said that too many times. I think it's imminent. I've said that before. The fact that the FAA has said, hey guys, as soon as you confirm this thing, let us know if we want to schedule the flight test.

Speaker 2

I think that's a real positive sign that they want to finish this too. I think it's going to be a big feather in their cap to approve this in this Superior Technology Equipment and further, there's just nothing like it out there today. And the fact that this takes so long to get done and so many flight hours of testing and It's going through such a rigor to the FA really creates a major barrier to entry for anybody else That wants to bring a system like this up to speed at any time in the foreseeable future. So we're confident that we're going to be a market leader with this product.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay, good. I think you said you have 55 kits doing 15 a month, but it sounds like Universal and Elbit They'll need to produce hardware. I mean, everything is going

Speaker 4

to be in the supply

Speaker 6

chain. What's the confidence level that, Let's just say you get the FAA approval, everything goes well. Are they going to be able to meet kind of your demands?

Speaker 2

It depends on the first order we get and how quickly that airline will start installing them. A number of the carriers that we're talking to are smaller. The big one, no, no way. I mean, if we get that one first, Bill, It's going to take a while to staff up for the several 100 737 NGs and MAXs that they've got in their fleet. Yes, that will take years to build up to supply that customer.

Speaker 2

Again, I've said this before and I've continually been reassured by Universal and Elbit that they build the order as soon as they know what the requirement is, they'll build for it. They've got the capacity to do that. So I am optimistic that they will deliver on what they've committed.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. And last one, I'll jump back in the queue here. On the Commentary, I think Ken was talking about on the 757s. Does the guidance, your revenue guidance All sales for the 757s presumably there would have to be some tweaking of guidance if you had more of those customers opt for leases?

Speaker 3

No. Right now, the guidance has a mix of leasing and write out sales.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 3

Right now, there's no we're not seeing any need to change that. But like Nick said, obviously, we're working on that. And if we see a need for adjustments, we'll communicate that. For right now, our projections already have that included.

Speaker 6

Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys. I'll jump back in the queue.

Speaker 4

Okay. You're welcome, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets. Ken, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, Nick. I just wanted to follow-up on your comments regarding the sort of the market opportunity for feedstock and asset acquisitions. The 100 and 5 year to date, obviously, we're early in the Q2, but How's the environment changed in the last maybe 3 months in terms of airlines And lessors desire to maybe move some older assets, I mean, we continue to face delays in new aircraft deliveries. And there seems to be traffic coming back strong and there certainly seems to be increased utilization of some of the older aircraft. So How has that market evolved and how do you expect to sort of play out over the next few months?

Speaker 2

So I can talk about why we're Winning more deals that we bid on than we have historically. Our hit rate is higher. I got to give you the exact number, but it is substantially higher than it has been. And why is that? And I've said this before, but it's worth reiterating.

Speaker 2

Airlines need more flight equipment, but what the leasing companies and the owners and the airlines are not doing is taking aircraft that need heavy work, landing gear overhaul, engine overhaul, heavy airframe checks, structures work And they're not investing the money to refurbish those airplanes, because they're still hoping that they'll eventually get the new aircraft and they don't want to invest And refurbishing these older maintenance intensive pieces of equipment because unless they're going to keep that for the long term, they're not going to get the return on that investment. So those are the assets that are coming our way. And the reason we're winning more of those assets than many others is because of the Very fulsome integrated multidimensional infrastructure we have, where we can do the things necessary to refurbish Those aircraft at the whole level and at the Peace Park level, including the engines. So the financial buyers out there, they can't do that. They're stepping away.

Speaker 2

They can buy an aircraft on lease and they can pay a price at which getting much lower IRR And we would seek, so we're not getting those deals. But pretty much if it's something needs a lot of work or only has it's an airframe and an engine or just engines, That's right up our alley. We've got the machinery to process that and extract maximum value. And that's our market today. And occasionally, we pop an airplane that says, wow, this was better than we thought.

Speaker 2

We picked up a good airplane with decent equipment on But that's rare and for the most part, because other people can buy that and they can find a place to put it, if they don't have to do much work on it. But the stuff that needs a lot of work, that's our cup of tea.

Speaker 3

Yes. If I could add, I think our multi dimensional model also has allowed us to get Better returns than a lot of our competitors. I think we've noted in the past that we target IRRs of 25% and greater. And with the cost of capital and some of our competitors that have are much more levered than we are and do not have the ability to monetize the way that we do, That's really taking a big bite of the apple of their profits and that's going our way because again, we have been used to operating in an environment Where we target a high IRR.

Speaker 2

Just let me further elaborate on that. I mean, we've seen deals where we feel This has been the last several years that investors are acquiring assets with the expectation to get A low double digit or even a very high single digit return. Well, that just got wiped out almost completely By an imputed interest rate that for people that have to go out there and acquire capital or look at alternate uses of the capital that they have, As you're approaching a 10% hurdle rate, a deal that's high single digits doesn't work and even low double digits doesn't work

Speaker 5

Okay, very helpful. Thanks, Nick. Thanks, Martin.

Speaker 2

Okay. Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, I apologize, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn it back to Nick, Aerosil's CEO for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Okay, Bert and Ken and Mike, thanks for the good questions. And for everyone listening today, thank you for listening to our Air Sales First Quarter Financial Results. We will continue to work hard and smart to deliver on our full year guidance. I hope you'll listen in on next quarter's call to get an update on our progress as we go forward. Have a good evening, everyone.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your

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Earnings Conference Call
AerSale Q1 2023
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