Geodrill Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 9, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. For today's call, participants are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we'll conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be provided at that time for you. And I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Tuesday, May 9 at 10:30 a.

Operator

M. Eastern Daylight Time and be broadcast live via the Internet. During today's call, management will make statements regarding management's expectations for the company's future financial and operational performance. These statements are considered forward looking statements. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this call, and actual results may differ materially from management expectations for a variety of reasons, including market and general economic conditions and the risks and uncertainties detailed from time to time in the company's federal filings.

Operator

I will now turn the call over to the President and CEO of Gildriel Limited, Mr. Dave Harp. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Geodal's Q1 2023 quarterly results call. I will begin with an overview of our operation and our performance for the quarter. Our CFO, Greg Borsch, will then give us a detailed review of our Q1 financial results, after which I will discuss the outlook for the remainder of 2023. Progeodil delivered outstanding results in the Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 1

We delivered record quarterly net income from our 2nd highest ever and our best ever quarter 1 revenue result. This is the result of our proven growth strategy of delivering high quality drilling services that attract long term contracts and provide recurring revenues and cash flow visibility. Operationally, we continue to be encouraged by the current strength in the global drilling market and growing momentum that we expect will carry into the foreseeable future. And to add a footnote here, I'm very pleased to report that continues to gain market share in its new territories with diversified commodity exposure in Egypt and South America, which are both performing very well for us. And the gains we've made on every front can be seen in the strength of our balance sheet and our ability to return free cash flow to our shareholders in the form of continuing dividend payments and the return on equity provided to shareholders.

Speaker 1

Call that our strategy since inception has been simply to provide diverse drilling services backstopped by unparalleled access to drill rig support and maintenance services to, as we say, keep them turning and keep them earning, and above all, to keep our customers satisfied. Evidently, this strategy is working. I'll now turn the call over to Greg Borske, our CFO, to review the financial highlights for Q1 in detail.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dave. As a reminder, all figures are reported in U. S. Dollars. We generated revenue of $37,600,000 representing a 12% increase compared to $33,400,000 for Q1 2022.

Speaker 2

This was our highest ever Q1 revenue and our 2nd highest ever quarterly revenue. We increased gross profit to $12,200,000 or 32 percent of revenue compared to a gross profit of $9,800,000 or 29 percent of revenue for Q1 2022. We recorded EBITDA of $10,500,000 or 28 percent of revenue. We generated record net income for Q1 2023 of $6,100,000 or 0 point $1,000,000 or $0.13 per share for Q1 2022. It should be noted, however, that in the prior year comparable quarter, the company had a $1,100,000 gain in Q1 2022 on its equity investments.

Speaker 2

If this gain was excluded from the Q1 2022 operating results, net income would have been $4,900,000 and earnings per share would have been $0.11 per share in Q1 2022. Throughout the quarter, we also maintained a strong balance sheet and ended the quarter with net cash excluding lease liabilities of 9,200,000 dollars At this point, I will turn the call back to Dave.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Greg. Before we move to the Q and A portion of the call, I would like to provide a brief outlook for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. With 2023 already underway, demand and less rigs available internationally in the global market, rig utilization is increasing. And as a result of that increase, we are beginning to see pricing leverage. With the demand for drilling services remaining strong for gold and other minerals, including EV, Jeetu will continue to create for its shareholders as we focus on margin expansion as we continue to benefit from this current upcycle, which is now well and truly underway.

Speaker 1

This concludes our prepared remarks on our financial results. I'll now hand the call back to the operator to see if anyone has any questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank Your first question comes from Daryl Young from TD. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning everyone. Congrats on a good start to the year. Good morning, Darryl. Good morning, Darryl. Good morning, Darryl.

Speaker 1

Good

Speaker 3

My question is around the outlook for 2023 and the seasonality that you might expect. So it's just become a little bit more complicated now that you've added new geographies and new longer term contracts. So just trying to get a sense of if you're expecting Q2 to be one of your stronger quarters of the year and then the Q3 rainy season, obviously, a long way away, but just the magnitude of the potential decline there, if you would expect it to be as big as it's been historically?

Speaker 1

So you recall that Q2 is generally our strongest quarter. And you'll also recall that last year, we had a slew of contracts begin in quarter 2 when we in the quarter 1, we signed, I think it was $130,000,000 or $40,000,000 in new contracts and those contracts were had well and truly had begun in earnest in quarter 2 last year. So I would imagine that quarter 2 this year will be strong, But as for year over year performance on the previous year, I'm not expecting like a massive gain. It will probably be flat at best actually. It will still be a good quarter.

Speaker 1

And adding to that quarter, I think you can look forward to a solid Q3 and Q4 as well. But as for Q2, looking at Q2 in isolation, I'm not expecting it's going to it's not going to be a massive bump over last year.

Speaker 2

In fact, at this point in time, I'll tell you it's probably trending more like planned. And let me just add, Daryl. I mean, when we talk about that Q2 in 2022 was our record quarter ever. I think if you remember, we almost did $40,000,000 It was $39,000,000 So to come close to that would be an exceptional Q2 2023. And I think the other thing too is just as the business has expanded and diversified and we've taken on more mine related work, You see a bit of a smoothing in the Q3.

Speaker 2

In the past, Q3 has dropped off quite significantly As we've gotten more mine work, more underground work, that's kind of sharpness in the quarters has declined. If you look at last year, Q3 was exceptionally strong. I think we did about $35,000,000 So we've kind of we still have that seasonality in the business with Q1 and Q2 being the strongest and then Q3 and Q4 kind of tapering off. But I think the declines in kind of have softened a bit as we grow.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's great context. Thank you. Second question is just around the growth prospects. And I think you've said that you might take a bit of a pause here on the rig fleet growth.

Speaker 3

Just it's been so strong for so many years and maybe digest a little bit before thinking about the next phase of growth. But just wondering if you're looking out to 2024 at this point and what you might think of for future rig fleet growth or what are your plans are on that?

Speaker 1

Well, I think the first target I can see that's clearly in view is 80 plus rigs. And I think we're going to get there in the next couple of years, probably in the next maybe in the next 12 months. We just look at rig growth and we look at the numbers that we put on, if we look at the last 5 years, think rigs have been growing at like 3% or 4% per annum, Greg? Correct. Yes.

Speaker 1

And I think it's just going to be more of the same. We may pause, but it will be more of a hiatus. It won't be an indefinite pause. We need to focus on a few things in the business. One thing we are trying very hard to focus on is restoring the pricing environment to what it once was.

Speaker 1

We look at where we were in 2012 and that the pricing that we're getting to 2012, well, what followed is we had a 7 year down cycle and for 7 years during what ensured is that pricing went from the peak to the trough. We declined about 25%. Industry has done a pretty good job of getting their rigs out there and getting them to work. And as a result of that global utilization has increased such that now as we read it, global intonate utilization is approaching 50%. I think we're almost at the 50% point.

Speaker 1

Now historically, at 50%, we start to see pricing leverage. And so most of the drillers that you're talking to, I think there will be a general that pricing needs to increase for the right reasons because costs have increased. But I think also we do need to kind of try and capture some of that pricing power that was basically when the pendulum moved across to the customer. Else, what will happen is we'll reach the top of this cycle in another 5 or 6 years. And of course, it will become competitive as come down the other side and we'll have nowhere to go.

Speaker 1

So I think where we're coming from is we're just not chasing every job that comes across our table these days. We will have to increase our pricing to maintain the same margins. And as a result and as a natural function of that, I guess our bid to win ratio may suffer. And so the result being is I do not believe in the immediate future, and I mean the immediate future is in the next 12 months, we're going to be as aggressive on rig numbers, but we might be a little bit more aggressive on pricing, which in theory would result in perhaps a delta between GP and top line should in theory decrease somewhat. And I believe we saw the 1st grand shoots of this in quarter 1 when we produced a 12% year over year improvement top line that we saw our GP go from I think it was 29 up to 31.

Speaker 1

And I took that as a massive positive.

Speaker 2

The other thing, Daryl, too, I think if you look at the annual growth over the last two years, in terms of top line, we went from 82,000,000 dollars in 2020 to $115,000,000 in 2021, if you remember, that was a 40% top line growth. Then in 2022, we took that number from $115,000,000 all the way up to $138,000,000 So another 20% top line growth. So, I think what you're seeing now, we're really looking at the business and looking at some of the markets we're in. And does it make sense to put rigs and add additional rigs into different markets like South America, Northern Africa, etcetera. So it's what Dave says.

Speaker 2

It's still going to be growth, still going to be rig additions. It's just looking at the business long term, looking at the countries we're in, the markets we're in, who we're drilling for and where does it make sense to be adding rigs and capacity, etcetera. Also, where does it make sense to move rigs around, so that we're well positioned? So hopefully that answers your question.

Speaker 3

No, that's great color and I like the strategy of focus on margin. And then what

Speaker 1

does SG and A

Speaker 3

in the quarter was a little elevated. Is that a run rate or were there unique factors in the quarter? Yes.

Speaker 2

I think we try to budget the SG and A at about 10% of revenue and we crept up to 12%. We had some share based expenses in there related to options. Typically, we issue options in May, but this year in 2023, we did that in Q1. We did it in March. So the lion's share of share based expense fell in Q1.

Speaker 2

So that'll be a timing between Q1 and Q2. Also, we just looked at some of the because we had a good quarter, we looked at some of our receivables and we're pretty conservative on our provisions in that in terms of IFRS and kind of some of the aging buckets. So we thought it was just have a look at those and maybe provide a little bit more. Still collecting them, we've collected some subsequent, but in terms of at the quarter end, there was a little bit more in provisions. And then other than that, it's again, if you look at the business going from $83,000,000 to $115,000,000 call it to $140,000,000 we've strengthened our controls.

Speaker 2

We've added more admin people. We've added more finance people. We're in new countries like Egypt. We're expanding into in South America. We're now in Peru and Chile.

Speaker 2

So there's some upfront administrative setup costs that are there. And as you continue to add rigs in those markets that they will be spread out over a larger rig base, if you will.

Speaker 3

Got it. That's great color. Thank you very much. I'll get back in the queue.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Daryl.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Daryl.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Gordon Lawson from Parallink. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hello, good morning. My questions are similar, just a little more detailed here. I mean, we previously talked about startup costs, particularly in Egypt. The senior margins once again improve year over year. Is this level of profitability, leads 32% gross margin?

Speaker 3

I mean, is this a reasonable assumption for Q2 and Q3, of course acknowledging your seasonally weak Q4?

Speaker 2

No. I think Gordon, if you look at just look at the history, the margins, they're kind of lockstep in term with revenue. So our high revenue quarters are our high gross margin and that's because we have a lot of fixed costs in the cost of goods sold also in terms of senior people, senior drillers, etcetera. So if you look at last year, Q1, Q2, I think, were similar, 32%, 31%. Then when we got to Q3, when revenue tapered down closer to $30,000,000 the margin was 24 percent and then in Q4 came up again.

Speaker 2

So we kind of Dave and I when we budget and when we manage the business, we manage towards a sort of overall annualized gross margin. And with that overall annualized gross margin, we know Q1 and Q2 are typically ahead of that and Q3 and Q4 are slightly below it.

Speaker 1

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

And you stated in your disclosures that drilling in Karruwah comes to a standstill. So are you looking to expand into other South American countries? And is there a timeline at which point you'd mobilize those rigs and improve to help contracts support contracts in other growth areas?

Speaker 1

Currently, we only had 2 rigs in Peru and we're receiving suddenly a number of inquiries. So we're going to leave those just there for the minute to see where that goes. We've had a bit of an expansion drive going on down in Chile. That's gone very well for us since entering that market about a year ago. And so we're encouraged and as job that we're doing down there, we're receiving a few inquiries around the same job.

Speaker 1

So that's looking pretty good, that market. I've actually just had an inquiry from another South American country as well and we've put a proposal on the table. So we'll see where that goes. Again, the whole rationale of moving to South America was a diversification was a commodity diversification strategy. It's also different country risk, it's the same time zone as a lot of our shareholders would appreciate.

Speaker 1

We're enjoying the experience in South America. And so I think these are the new growth markets for us. They're going very well. We've been well received, and I think the future looks pretty good there for a kick.

Speaker 2

And Gord, that's kind of our secret sauce, if you will. If you look at West Africa, the 4 countries we're in, we have our main bases in every country. We have our fleet of rigs in every country. But then again, we're able to move rigs around from one country to another if the demand exceeds is in one country and not the other. So we've been doing that very effectively in West Africa for a long time and you're seeing the same in South America.

Speaker 2

So we started off very strong in Peru and for political reasons, etcetera, Peru right now we're not drilling in Peru, but we're extremely busy in Chile. So we were able to mobilize some rigs from Peru to Chile to satisfy our customers and keep drilling in South America. So as you keep adding more countries throughout South America, you'll be able to have that flexibility. So it's something we've done extremely well. And like I said, we've been able to look at South America in 2022 and continue drilling there just in a different country.

Speaker 1

Okay, that makes sense.

Speaker 3

Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Gord.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ahmad Shah from Beacon Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, Ahmad.

Speaker 4

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the solid quarter. Most of my questions have been answered. I guess I just want to clarify, it looks like from the comments I got from you, Dave, is Q1 is the high watermark for the year and we should be trending lower on a quarterly basis for the remainder of the year. Is that a fair statement?

Speaker 1

I think it is actually. I think we're going to have a blended it'll be a good year. But I think it will it's we're not looking for 20% year over year improvement. Again, if you recall, 2021 was a 40% year over year improvement. We were coming off a low base, we were coming off COVID, we were coming off down cycle.

Speaker 1

So 2022 for us was a good year. And I think that for the reasons that I gave just before with not chasing every job, bidding more qualitatively and trying to move that pendulum back in our favor a little bit such that we can appreciate it, slightly improved GP. I think we will start to see a bit of pushback. And so, and I think these things, these disciplines at the points in time in a cycle are necessary to do. I would be thinking at this point, this year, this fiscal year as compared to last year would be probably closer to maybe a 10% improvement, high single digits.

Speaker 1

And if we can achieve high single digit top line, but improve the GP by a couple of percentage points, then we would have effectively ended up with the same result, if you get my meaning. So that's what I would if I was to throw a data where the year is going to end at this stage, I think I'd be aiming for about high single digits.

Speaker 4

And just to close a loop on the margin, it seems that you're targeting, given what the environment has in terms of pricing and industry utilization, you think you can achieve a 2 percentage point improvement on the gross margin revenue base we just spoke about?

Speaker 2

I didn't catch all that, but just on the gross margin, if you look at the last years, we target 30% a month and typically we're higher than that in the first couple of quarters and then around that are slightly below in Q3. So again, we look at the margin when we do our budgeting, our forecasting, how many rigs we're going to add throughout the year, etcetera. We look at our annualized margin and typically in Q1 and Q2, we track ahead of that. So, again

Speaker 4

So, it sounds like the target that reasonable target for this year is probably about 31% give or in that range?

Speaker 2

Yes. We budget 30%. So if you 32% in Q1 was a strong margin for us. And again, the other thing too is this is something we need to communicate. In 2020 to 2021, we grew by 40%.

Speaker 2

2021 to 2022, we grew by 20%. This is kind of a year where we're looking at maintaining gross profit, pricing. We're also looking at jurisdictions and it's more of an investment into the future where we're looking at certain countries we operate in, certain certain territories and does it make sense to increase our presence in South America? Does it make sense to increase our presence in Northern Africa? Add more rigs in Egypt.

Speaker 2

So it's we're still focused on margins and top line, but it's also strengthening the company and diversifying it a little bit more. That's kind of what we're looking at in 2023.

Speaker 4

That's great. I appreciate the color. And last one on the back of just on the G and A line, if I parse out the impact of the receivables and the share based comps, it looks like your run rate on a quarterly basis in around €4,000,000

Speaker 1

is that a good number to have?

Speaker 2

Yes. We're I'd like it to be 10% of the top line. But yes, I think again with the investments we've made into these countries and still adding rigs, it's probably $3,500,000 to $4,000,000 a quarter.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thanks guys. Just wanted to answer my question and congrats again on a solid quarter.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Amit. Thanks, Ahmad.

Operator

Thank Your next question comes from Benjamin Anderson from Anderson Consulting Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have a question about the availability of rigs as the company expands. Do you foresee any problems? Or are there any problems in the procurement of additional rigs in terms of their availability?

Speaker 5

Is this something you have to order years in advance? And how easy are they to obtain as your business expands?

Speaker 1

We did pretty well on that score. Where we don't buy, we build. Either way, we're always labeled to satisfy the demand. What we don't do is wait until the demand or the utilization of the existing fleet reaches maximum capacity before we act. We preempt that we aren't going to be at 100% when we reach 70%.

Speaker 1

And so when we get to 70%, we naturally are out there in the market looking to either buy new equipment from manufacturers or one of the things I'm not sure how familiar you are with the history of the company, but you may be aware that the company actually has its own manufacturing facilities. It's one of the big things that we do, I think, remarkably well in GeoDrill is that we have the ability to actually manufacture our own drilling rods, our own drilling boots and our own drilling rigs. And so in the fleet currently, I think we have about 6 rigs that have been made at our manufacturing and fabrication facility plant in West Africa. As we speak, we have 4 rigs going through the workshop. And those rigs, we can speed them up or slow them down.

Speaker 1

So we've always we can always satisfy demand basically, to answer your question.

Speaker 2

Thank

Speaker 5

you. And very briefly, I wondered if you could talk about political risk that the company now faces. Could you talk about Burkina Faso specifically? And does GeoDrill have any commercial or governmentally provided political risk insurance?

Speaker 1

I'll let Greg speak about insurance. I'll talk about Burkina Faso. It's a market that we've been in since 2010. So we've got some history there. At one point, it was our busiest market.

Speaker 1

Currently, it is actually our quietest market and that's just a natural function of the fact that less people are drilling there these days. It is for us a country currently under review and a decision somewhere imminently in the not too distant future will be taken as far as that country is concerned. The one litmus test that I always have is that I will not work where I won't ask my where I will not visit myself where I will not ask my people to work. Sorry, I'll say that the other way around. I will not ask my people to work where I'm not prepared to visit.

Speaker 1

So that is firstly and foremostly our sort of litmus test in terms of whether a site is safe. Of course, Burkina has come under some negative press for frankly all the right reasons in recent years. And for that very reason, we are currently reviewing our situation in Burkina Faso. And I think a decision will be taken imminently that will derive us a better result in terms of where we place our assets.

Speaker 2

Just in terms of insurance, Benjamin, yes, the group insurance, we coordinate that out of the UK and then filter it down to every country that we operate in. So we're We disclose We disclose the D and O insurance, but in our industry, I think everybody has expat medical insurance, your general liability insurance, umbrella insurance, etcetera. So very adequately insured and like I say, we review this semi annually with our team in the UK and then we push that down to the operating jurisdictions.

Speaker 5

Do you have any insurance for confiscation or nationalization of a political nature?

Speaker 1

Expropriation, I think you're talking about.

Speaker 4

Yes, right.

Speaker 1

No, I don't think so. No, I don't think that's never happened in my 25 years. We've never had it. We've actually never had a situation where we've actually lost any time through drilling because of any, let's say, political coup d'etat, d'etat, which is fairly common throughout Africa. Where we're more exposed currently in that country that you just mentioned and one of the other ones up there in West Africa is the terrorism situation.

Speaker 1

And so that's more of a concern to us. Of course, a rig can always be replaced, people can't. Do we actually have insurance for expropriation? I think it would depend on the purpose, the reason behind the expropriation. If it was civil, if it were It's never happened.

Speaker 1

So I'm not even 100% sure where And

Speaker 2

the way we work, with, in general, we insure wherever we can. If an insurer will not provide that, again, we go through our main broker and there's just some things that insurers will not insure for and a lot of this is riot and terrorism related events. So what we do to kind of mitigate that is make sure we know where we're operating. The GeoDrill model we operate with most of our clients are the majors or the intermediates. So we make sure we're on very secure mine sites.

Speaker 2

We're in discussions with our clients and their security protocols, our security protocols. But so in general, wherever we can add a layer of insurance, we will. But there are certain situations and certain circumstances where you're not able to ensure. So what you do is you look at how do you mitigate that and it's through diversification. Like I said, we've had situations where we've had through us and our client have maintained special security, spent a lot of money on that just to make sure assets are safe and people are safe.

Speaker 2

But what you're seeing, what I mentioned earlier with Geodrill, it's investing in the business. Some of those countries that are a bit problematic now, we're pulling out of them and we're pulling out of them as we can and redeploying rigs to other areas that are more favorable to operate in. So hopefully that answers your question.

Speaker 5

It does. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Jurgen Saarz from Viking Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, guys. I'm wondering, you mentioned in your MD and A, I'm talking about rewarding shareholders. And I noticed that despite you've spent a lot of money on new rigs in the last couple of years. And despite that, you don't seem to be able to spend all the cash you have. So you've been building up cash and now have substantial level of net cash in hand.

Speaker 6

And I'm wondering, at the same time, your dividend payout is less than 20%. Now I realize that you obviously with dividends, you want to be careful that you don't want to be in a position where you have to cut it. But I'm wondering if perhaps you might do something. You haven't of course, you haven't bought any shares back either. And I'm wondering if you might contemplate buying some shares back and also perhaps have us pay a special dividend?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, if you look at the history of GeoDryl and just kind of the last 4 or 5 years, the where we bought back shares through our NCIB, what we do is we have an NCIB that allows us to buy back shares and we monitor that. So I think it was in 2019 2020 that the share price traded significantly below the book value of the company. And so what we did with the share buyback, we were allowed to kind of put in a floor and it made sense for us to buy back shares. As we got through 2020 and through COVID and into 2021, through our Investor Relations people and the marketing.

Speaker 2

We were told that a lot of investors wanted to invest in GeoDrol and buy shares. So we kind of it's a balanced thing. So what we did is we adopted more of a dividend strategy. So we did our first dividend in 2021. We did a small dividend, dollars 0.01 twice, so it was $0.02 annually.

Speaker 2

Then the next year, we ratcheted that up to $0.03 so it was $0.06 We just did our first one in 2023 of $0.04 So what we're seeing, again, it's a balance thing. You need to have the balance to add rigs and continue to grow and continue to satisfy customers, but we also need to have the balance to return capital to our stakeholders. And where we've done that in the last 2 years is more through the dividend via the share buyback. However, we do have the share buyback in place. So it's still a lever to pull if we need it going forward.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ray Givens, an investor. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Congratulations on a good quarter guys. I know you guys must wonder why you can't even get the hello?

Speaker 2

Can you hear me? We can hear you. Thanks, Rick.

Speaker 7

Yes. You guys must wonder why you can't even get the valuation of like a mining company that has one mine in the ground, cannot move it. Is that the whim of the government of everything, cannot mitigate any of its risks and yet has a healthy PE that you guys can't seem to touch, being able to move your assets wherever you think they should be at 30% EBITDA margins. It's just an amazing world, not to mention these mines eventually run out of what they're looking for. And from what I can tell, you guys decide when a rig is retired and you can keep refurbishing it and optimizing it.

Speaker 7

And ultimately you guys decide when your asset is now broken down for parts or whenever it is. So just incredible the valuation confusion there. But what I would ask is about you guys are talking a lot about recurring revenue now. And so I know your customer mix is much more towards miners. And miners are now saying things like, oh, the cheapest ounces we find are right around our mine side and you guys are the ones helping them execute that.

Speaker 7

So I suppose what percentage of your customers are majors? And is it fair to say that if you're a major in West Africa that your pricing quartile is very low, which further goes to show you guys will be working with these guys right into the next downturn and that recurring revenue here is something we can actually look at into the next downturn and not say, okay, this is a business that's just going to run out of work. So just tell us about these major miners and where you think their pricing quartile is?

Speaker 1

That's a good question. Drilling is a cyclical business and it tends to go up and down depending on commodity prices and so on and so forth. I think the firstly, just recall that the history of the company, why I was encouraged to start Chuderville 25 years ago, this is now by the way our 25th year of business. We started with 1 rig, one contract in West Africa in Ghana 25 years ago at a mine site well, sorry, at a junior exploration site that later went on to become a mine site. And most of the miners, what they do is they I think that firstly and foremostly, the thing that attracted me to West Africa was that West Africa had missed what I thought was 50 or 60 years of modern exploration.

Speaker 1

All these things that have been drilled around North America and Australia and around the various places in the world, they had a wave of exploration that took place through the '50s, through the '60s, 70s and 80s. Well, West Africa missed all of that. And so a bunch of exploration juniors arrived in their droves in the early 90s and I was part of that movement. So I've been there, I've had the first move or advantage since I arrived. And I've never needed to really go and drill anywhere else.

Speaker 1

There is an enormous amount of drilling that has taken place and will continue to take place. So the drilling that has taken place was the drilling that was making the major discoveries. Now please note that a mining company does not drill its 30 year mine life or 20 year mine life in its 1st 2 or 3 years of exploration. They tend to drill what will give them about 5 years of production, call it 150,000 ounces per year. And on the basis of that, they can generally go and do a DFS, raise some money and build a mill.

Speaker 1

So then they get now they've gone from an exploration junior to an intermediate miner in the making to a miner. Now by this stage, they're mining, they're producing gold at, say, 150,000 ounces a year. Well, if they do that, then in 5, 6 years, they're going to be out of business. So what happens is they take the cash, which is generated from the operations. And it's usually they work on fairly good margins out here because the grade of the resource is much higher.

Speaker 1

And that speaks to the point that I mentioned that West Africa had missed 50 years of modern exploration. And so you had all this low hanging fruit out here. Now, so when they get into production and they produce their 1st year's resources, well, they've taken their pit down, call it 50 meters. And so as they deplete the pit and they remove gold from their balance sheet, they spend some of that free cash back into exploration, which then generates the next 2 or 3 years of results. So that what happens, you have this ever increasing momentum with the resource never ends.

Speaker 1

So the recurring revenues that I can speak of on projects where we have worked, where we began as juniors, they became intermediates, have gone on to become minors. And now West Africa is dominated by names, Tier 1 names such as Newmont, Barrick Mines, Kinross Mines and Endeavour Mines. These people are serious people with serious mining plans and a serious attitude towards working sustainably and building a proper ecosystem with communities in mind. Now the result being for us, we've been able to build a business model, which started with 1 rig, 1 contract and 100% debt. So 0 equity, 25 years ago, today, what is is a company which has at this morning's count $112,000,000 in total shareholder equity.

Speaker 1

I think that's an enormous result. And the best part about it is all the projects that we are currently working on, other projects that have been going now for 15, 20 years, they still have another 15 or 20 years of mine life. And by the time we get to the end of that 15 years, 20 years of mine life, I expect they would have pulled the next 15 or 20 years of mine life. So it's a great business model. It's why I started in West Africa.

Speaker 1

Now the result being, if you want to look at how much gold is now coming from West Africa as a result of all this drilling that we perform and other companies perform, please note we are not the only drillers here. As a result of all this drilling activity, West Africa is now producing 4 50 metric ton of gold per annum. And just to put that number into perspective, China, the largest producer in the world on a country basis, produces 3 50 metric ton. So there's 50% more coal coming from 6 of the 12 West African countries in a footprint in an area which we've been inside of China twice. So I think the recurring what this company has been very successful in doing is identifying a region, getting the 1st mover advantage, building a network of support facilities to support our high performance rigs and generating cash flow.

Speaker 1

And from that operating cash flow, we then take the cash generated from operations of each and every one of these rigs. And the next thing we do is we just reinvest it into another rig. People and this cycle has been going on. We're now approaching 80 rigs as we inexorably move in the direction of what will eventually become probably a 100 north of 100 rigs. And what's the best use of our cash generated from operations?

Speaker 1

People often ask why don't you buy the shares back? Why don't you pay more dividends? Why don't you pay special dividends? I think we just had that call, that question on the call earlier today. Well, I will tell you the best thing we can do with the cash generated from our operations is just put it back into another REIT.

Speaker 1

I don't have to buy someone's business. I don't have to pay them dilutive multiples to expand into other markets. So I just take my rigs, my cash, I add rigs into the exact same market where there is an appetite for our equipment. And that business model is now expanding beyond West Africa into these other strategic markets for us. We're essentially doing in Egypt today exactly what we're doing in Ghana and exactly what we were doing in Ivory Coast 10 or 20 years ago.

Speaker 1

We just start with 2 or 3 rigs, we get in there, we keep the customer satisfied. And that's all you got to do in this business, just keep your customer satisfied. We are personally and foremost a service provider. That's what we do. So we have to provide service.

Speaker 1

That's how we do it. And that's the story. The geological story, holes are us. We drill holes, lots of them.

Speaker 7

Thank you for your efforts guys. Well done.

Speaker 1

As for the share price, I can't help you with that one. That's where we sing the serenity prayer. I think we're just in the lap of the gods. You got to believe that the market, the cycles will change. This is a cyclical business.

Speaker 1

What we have done is we've taken a cyclical business and the share prices of drilling companies and mining companies alike tend to suffer through the peaks and the troughs. And so we're collateral damage in that respect. But I do think that what GeoDryl has done probably better than most is we have managed to take a cyclical business and flatten out the cycle such that even in the troughs, we're still profitable. We're just less profitable than where we are in the peaks. Now we're evidently in an upcycle.

Speaker 1

This upcycle, I believe, began in earnest 2 years ago. Based on the last down cycle, I will tell you, I'm confident this upcycle is good for 7 years. We're 2 years in, we've got 5 years to look forward to. And it's going to be going on.

Speaker 2

Yes. And just on the share price, Ray, diversification, I think, is going to help in the long run, adding more capacity in South America, adding more capacity in Egypt and some of the other North African countries. We've invested in we added the over the counter QX listing last year to kind of cater to more U. S. Investors that would like to invest in GeoDryl.

Speaker 2

Last year, Dave, all of the sea level, we basically reinvested about $2,500,000 into the business. So, we're like Dave said, we're kind of at the mercy of the stock market, but in terms of paying dividends, diversifying the business for us to continue to reinvest. C level has never sold a share. We believe in this business and we believe it in the long run. So we'll keep doing what we're doing.

Speaker 7

I definitely think there's a correlation between the share volumes and the dividend. So as the dividend increases, more and more people will be forced to look at this business. What business can sustain this particular dividend? They'll look under the hood and they'll be like incredible business. And so maybe now people think, oh, private equity was involved in this mineral exploration business.

Speaker 7

They took on a bunch of debt. They ran aground. Lots of people lost money. Part of the backing for the cyclical elements of it, but you're better than a mine. It's way better than a mine.

Speaker 7

It's way better than even 2 or 3 mines. Like it's just it should have a higher valuation than the mining industry. You just have all of the flexibility. You almost have what royalty companies have. Royalty companies talk about how many how diversified they are, how they don't participate in the cost of a mine, they just sit around and collect cash.

Speaker 7

You're in a lot of low quartile mines, like you'll be working for them right through the next cycle. Like why can't you be valued at 20 times EBITDA like the minimum royalty company? Instead, we sit around grateful that you're at 3 times EBITDA and then you get asked questions where, wow, if we don't grow at 15%, we might lose our 3 times EBITDA valuation. Incredible. But anyways, love your business, love

Speaker 1

it all. I agree with everything you're saying. I'm trying to figure out how an assay laboratory who are effectively our cousins. They say that the driller is the proverbial canary in the coal mine, right? And that's because we spent for the largest of the exploration 50%, approximately 50% of all exploration budgets goes to exploration drilling.

Speaker 1

So you would think that we would speak to the lion's share of the multiple the picks and shovels. Not so. Oddly, assay companies, the companies that take the samples that we produce and assay them, they traded 12, 13, 14 times multiples. Look them up. Just check if my intel is correct on that.

Speaker 1

I don't understand that because you know what, if I want to move one of my rigs out of jurisdiction because I'm uncomfortable there, you know what I do? I just fetch truck and I stick it on the truck and I drive it out. We've done this many times before. We will do it many times in the future. If we don't like a place, we just move.

Speaker 1

You cannot move an asset like it's bolted to the ground. It's a building. And so if you're in a jurisdiction that you don't like, you're stuck there. So I just do not get I don't get that the assay companies, aside the fact that they are $1,000,000,000 companies and there's this whole argument about liquidity versus illiquidity and I get that. I totally get that.

Speaker 1

But look, you got to believe you got to firstly and foremost believe in the cycles. We are not in an up cycle yet, but we're evidently approaching an up cycle. And in the last up cycle, we traded at 4.5x to 5x EBITDA. Currently, we traded 3x EBITDA. You can say that our share price has had a good run-in the last 2 years and it has.

Speaker 1

Increased by 50%, but our operational and financial performance has outpaced that. So our share price performance and our multiple has actually lagged compared to our financial performance. I would argue that the underlying value of the stock is as well valued as it has ever been. And good well done for those loyal shareholders that were with us back when we were trading at $2.50 But really, I mean, the intrinsic value of this stock, if we were just to get back to a 4.5 times multiple, that takes us at kind of, I don't know, dollars 5.50 or something. And that's where we should be.

Speaker 1

And you know what's going to happen. That's not going to happen overnight. But when the markets do kick in and when we are getting that 4x, 4.5x multiple valuation, well, what's going to happen in the meantime? What's moving is the EBITDA. If you look at our EBITDA over the last 5 years, it has grown at a CAGR 19%.

Speaker 1

And so I can afford to be quite patient. I'm not a seller, I'm a buyer, as Greg said. Last year, I exercised, I think it was what was the number I exercised last year, Greg? It was a seller. Yes.

Speaker 1

I've timed $600,000 or $700,000 back into the business last year in share options that were trading pretty much at market value. They weren't give away options. They were $2.14 options. And I think they were actually $0.10 or $2 under what I exercised in that. But I believe in the business.

Speaker 1

I believe in the business. This is I believe

Speaker 7

Certainly, the last down cycle wasn't bad for you guys. I mean, you doubled your size. I mean, you go into this next one in a lot of different jurisdictions. You outperform your competition, pick up whatever is there and you wake up in the next upcycle double the size still, why not? You've created a business model with the moat that people talk about.

Speaker 7

But we all want things to happen faster than that.

Speaker 1

Those through acquisition, I just love the whole organic thing, it just works so well for us. We don't have to buy someone else's problems. We're just muscling with some of our rigs and we pummel the opposition and we take market share and the next thing you come back to that country in a few years' time and we will be the preeminent draw in that country. We've done this in many countries where we operate in West Africa. And now we're now making a name for ourselves in Egypt, and we're doing very well in South America.

Speaker 1

So thanks again for

Speaker 7

your questions.

Speaker 1

I had more of a statement than a question I should add, but thank you. I'm glad someone actually jumps on these calls and actually supports me in what I've been saying for the longest time. Thanks. Thanks very much.

Speaker 7

Thank you, guys.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Greg.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. You may proceed.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Well, if there's no further calls, we'll thank everyone for being on the call today. Have a great day. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Geodrill Q1 2023
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