Signet Jewelers Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
June 8, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

I'll now turn the call over to our host, Rob Belew. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Welcome to Signet Jewelers' 1st quarter earnings conference call. On the call today are Signet's CEO, Ginnis Rosos and Chief Financial Strategy and Services Officer, Joan Hilson. During today's presentation, we will make certain forward looking statements. Any statements that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 1

Actual results may differ materially. We urge you to read the risk factors, cautionary language and other disclosures in our annual report on Form 10 ks, Quarterly reports on Form 10 Q and current report on Form 8 ks. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise or you can publicly update forward looking statements in light of new information or future events. During the call, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. You can provide.

Speaker 1

For further discussion of the non GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, investors should review the news release we posted on our website at www.signetjewelers.com/investors. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jenna.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Rob. We're happy to have you joining your First Signet earnings call today and appreciate the extensive experience you bring. You And thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before getting into our prepared remarks, I want to thank our Signet team. Our company continues to be recognized as a great place to work because of the outstanding people we work alongside.

Speaker 2

In a pressured quarter, we delivered on our commitments, thanks to their agility and excellent customer service. I'm proud to lead this team. You There are 3 key messages I'd like to reinforce in my remarks today. First, we achieved our revenue and bottom line commitments in Q1 despite macroeconomic headwinds that worsened late in the quarter. Additionally, as we predicted, there were fewer engagements in the quarter, Resulting from COVID's disruption of dating 3 years ago.

Speaker 2

Given softening trends in late April, We leveraged high margin innovation in services and fashion as well as strategic promotion to quickly respond to competitive pressures. These results reflect the agility we've built in our team and our flexible operating model. 2nd, we are adjusting our guidance for the year, reflecting current market conditions, lowering revenue expectations based on increasing macro pressure on Consumer spending. On the bottom line, our operating model continues to deliver at a double digit annual rate. You However, we are intentionally choosing to invest in the capabilities that we believe are creating sustainable competitive advantages you can provide us with a strong balance sheet That fuels our ability to invest in a period of disruption, which we believe gives us significant competitive advantage.

Speaker 2

You 3rd, we remain confident in our mid term goals that we outlined at our April Investor Day. In fact, our proprietary consumer insights accelerate market share growth. Turning to the quarter, we delivered nearly $1,700,000,000 in sales And more than $106,000,000 in non GAAP operating income, both at the high end of our guidance. We achieved this despite 50% of our business being in bridal, which we expected to decline and in an environment that Lower tax refunds, economic concerns triggered by regional bank failures and continued inflation led to a weakening trend in spending across the jewelry industry of an additional 10 points that we estimate based on external reports. Bridal and macroeconomic conditions were 2 important drivers in the quarter, so I'll comment on both of them.

Speaker 2

We expected the low double digit decline in engagements that we saw this quarter. Similar to the Q4, we expected to see units decline, But we also expected growth in average transaction value, which did not materialize. This reflects the accelerated macro pressures on spending As well as a heightened promotional environment, those factors that we expect to continue. We believe we are growing market share in bridal in this environment. In fashion, we continue to see pressure at lower price points as has been the case for the past year.

Speaker 2

However, later in the quarter, we began to see degradation at higher price points between $1,000 $5,000 In fashion, price points remain strong at $5,000 and above. This price erosion continued into the Q2. Nonetheless, Our intentional focus on building out our fashion category over the last three years, which has grown 36% in that time To become a bigger portion of our mix has positioned us to gain market share and is having the positive impact we've designed for I'll talk more about our guidance update shortly, but I want to first look at the value of the investments we've made to differentiate Signet from competitors and position us to gain market share, in particular, Our banner portfolio, our services business and our digital and data capabilities, all of which were important strengths in Q1. Our broad portfolio of banners is working as it is designed to do. As we've repositioned it, you can Jared is a good example.

Speaker 2

Jared now represents an important mezzanine between fine jewelry and luxury jewelry. In each of the last nine quarters, Jared has increased average transaction value versus previous year you By providing the higher quality metals, elegant cuts and exclusive brands that Jared customers want. And we're piloting a preferred assortment in select stores that has driven a 600 basis point improvement in sales versus the balance of the fleet and a 1500 basis point improvement to average ticket sales. We expect to roll it out more broadly in the months ahead. The value and potential of our services business continues to be evident.

Speaker 2

Services grew more than 5% compared to this time last year, reflecting the notable progress across our services offerings. A key driver was our extended service agreements or ESAs. The attachment rate for ESAs increased more than 2 points, Exiting the quarter with higher velocity. This is a particularly impressive result since our highest attachment is typically in bridal. Custom is another good example.

Speaker 2

We expect the custom to decline in the quarter at a similar rate to merchandise sales. Yet this growing service bucked the trend, increasing penetration and contributing to core margin expansion. We've been building our services offerings based on deep consumer research and it's working. The improvements we've made in custom and repair drove a service margin increase of 3.40 basis points you Compared to the prior year. Our loyalty program is demonstrating meaningful growth as well.

Speaker 2

We recently introduced the option to enroll in our loyalty program when first creating an account on one of our banner sites, Creating a frictionless point of entry for our customers. This enhancement has enabled a more than 50% increase in members you can see in the quarter. This matters because our loyalty members are more frequent purchasers and have a 20% higher spend you can provide. These examples represent continued progress toward our midterm goal of $1,200,000,000 in Service business revenue as well as an important step change in the way services perform as a category. Historically, services revenue has trended alongside merchandise, often impacted by the same drivers.

Speaker 2

This quarter, services is a standout category and a clear reflection of our investments. We've changed the trajectory of this part of our business Through ESA product differentiation, increased digital access and visibility and increased training. The final strength I'd like to highlight is the value of our digital and data analytics capabilities. Our investments in digital continue to be a differentiator And a bright spot for us in the current environment, increasing penetration in the quarter. We believe that's both an indication of the macro environment Where consumers are browsing and researching more before they buy and also the investments we've made to create a great customer experience.

Speaker 2

Our digital net promoter score or NPS is now at an all time high, having grown 3 points over the last quarter And 9 points compared to this time last year. And 96% of promoters say they will shop with us again. As consumer expectations continue to increase, we are updating our digital experience, meeting customers how and where they want to shop with us at a scale that's hard to match. We implemented more than a dozen new priority feature launches this quarter And we're on track for an additional 20 in the Q2. These features include enhancements to online merchandise presentation, messaging, appointment booking and services.

Speaker 2

With these and future improvements to come, we are sharply focused on customer delight Beyond digital, our proprietary data and ability to mine it for insights is a significant source of competitive advantage. We see its value in bridal, for example. As we mentioned at our Investor Day, We have identified and tracked a proprietary list of 45 milestones that trace a couple's journey Through 4 major relationship stages: meeting, exclusivity, committed and engagement. What our data has shown is that once couples experience at least 27 of these milestones, it becomes highly likely you can see that they will move to engagement. For example, couples traveling together is one of the top milestones later in a couple's journey to engagement.

Speaker 2

We see evidence of this milestone currently across our data sources, including online search activity. You Searches for couples vacation on TikTok are currently twice what they were in Q4. Google searches for travel or vacation together are up more than 30%. In fact, multiple data sources that we track for other key proprietary indicators are also up significantly. The key point is that we're seeing the engagement milestones occurring as expected, which reinforces our covenants that engagements will begin to recover as we approach the end of the year.

Speaker 2

You We are investing to win as this unfolds. Personalized marketing is another example of our data capabilities. Our marketing efficiency and effectiveness continue to improve as we personalize our approach, including a 9% increase to our turn on ad spend in the Q1 with advertising as a percent of sales flat compared to this time last year. Our customer data platform, which enables our personalized journeys, is still relatively new in implementation. You can provide.

Speaker 2

That said, we've already built nearly 30,000,000 customer profiles and the platform is configured to activate you can take from the call today. I want to put this into perspective for you. We estimate those 30,000,000 customer profiles represent roughly 40% of U. S. Jewelry customers you who make a purchase in a given year.

Speaker 2

And we've been adding over 1,000,000 new profiles every month. The marriage of these two things, our proprietary consumer insights and our leading customer data platform is a powerful combination that doesn't exist at our scale anywhere else in the North America jewelry industry. Our unique consumer insights capability enables us to see and understand pre engagement couples As they make progress through their relationships toward engagement and our personalization capability enables us to interact with them at important steps, increasing the likelihood that they'll come to us when they're ready to get engaged. This also generates insights into all the milestone moments that come later in their lives and enables us to build lifetime relationships you can share with us today. This integrated approach to our insights and customer data is at the heart of our transformation And our long term growth potential.

Speaker 2

We will continue to invest behind it as we get better and better every year. One final example of how we're leveraging data is the way we're driving out product costs without compromising quality and innovation. A recent example is a sourcing technology that we've activated, which we call the loop. This is a leading sourcing system that allows us should benchmark standardized component costs, establish should cost pricing models and create transparency and cost negotiations Across our network, lowering costs and matching product demand and supply needs with the right vendors you can see from the line of David. We're early in our implementation, but already in Q1, we estimate that we avoided mid single digit you can see.

Speaker 2

Based on our early success, we are now doubling our expectation of savings from $20,000,000 to $40,000,000 this year and believe we can ultimately save up to $200,000,000 annually over time. This level of cost transparency gives us a clear competitive advantage, particularly with current macro headwinds. The point of these examples is to underscore that the investments we've made and continue to make to strengthen critical capabilities and create competitive advantages are working. Our financial strength allows us to keep investing to widen the moat around our business you can see from the slide deck. I'll touch briefly now on our guidance update.

Speaker 2

As a result of the deteriorating macro environment and impact on consumer spending patterns we saw late in Q1 And throughout May, we are revising guidance to reflect continuation of these trends for the balance of the year. We have updated our forecast to account for a lower range of top line outcomes and now expect revenue for the year to be between $7,100,000,000 to $7,300,000,000 Based on sales data in May June for the industry, We believe this guide positions us to grow market share as current trends are pointing to a larger decline across the industry. As I said earlier, our model provides double digit operating margins even in a tough macro environment. We are maintaining investments This year of nearly $75,000,000 in OpEx to enhance our digital and IT capabilities and up to $200,000,000 in capital, which is a demonstration of our increasing confidence in the recovery of engagements and our ability to achieve our midterm goals. These investments will pressure margins by approximately one point, placing us temporarily below our double digit target is in a range of 8.9% to 9.2%.

Speaker 2

Importantly, these investments strategically position us you can take advantage of the expected recovery in bridal that will begin later this year and capture share when the current macro headwinds recede. Our flexible operating model is in place and working, and our fortress balance sheet gives us this opportunity. You We're also taking action in 3 key areas. We're heightening our focus on innovation at the right price point, Working to stimulate demand through relevant newness within our assortments, personalized customer journeys and strategic promotions, All while balancing our inventory position. We believe our lean inventory and heightened turn gives us the opportunity to bring newness to market faster than our competition and our scale allows us to create excellent value.

Speaker 2

Secondly, we are more than doubling our cost savings initiatives from $100,000,000 this year to $225,000,000 to $250,000,000 And third, we're accelerating our ongoing fleet optimization and plan to close-up to 150 stores over the next 12 months that are not meeting our expectations for productivity. Shown will provide more perspective, But I'll close just by coming back to the core messages we're focusing on today. We delivered our revenue and bottom line commitments in Q1 Despite significant pressure reflecting our agility and flexible operating model. We're adjusting our guidance to reflect current macroeconomic conditions, while continuing to invest economic conditions, while continuing to invest intentionally in the capabilities that we believe are driving market share growth, And we remain confident in both the recovery of engagement and in our ability to achieve the midterm goals you can provide us with today's call. On that note, I'll pass it over to Joan.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jenna, and good morning, everyone. I want to reinforce today's message by focusing on one of the most important factors in our control, Our flexible operating model. We are able to proactively respond to the current business environment and continue To strategically invest to drive market share gains precisely because of our model and our strong balance sheet. Turning to the quarter, we delivered nearly $1,700,000,000 in sales. This represents a sales decline of 9.3% And 13.9% on a same store sales basis.

Speaker 2

Traffic was down in the quarter in a mid single digit range on a relatively flat ATB and lower conversion. We leveraged strategic promotion towards the end of the quarter as we saw trends soften. In addition, we were able to drive growth in services of over 5%, notably outperforming merchandise performance in the quarter. This is a clear competitive advantage for us in the jewelry industry given our scale and skilled network of artists and jewelers. Our e commerce penetration increased 500 basis points to nearly 23% compared to a year ago, Reflecting our strategic investments in digital.

Speaker 2

Turning now to gross margin, we delivered non GAAP Gross margin of $633,000,000 or 38 percent of sales, a decline of 160 basis points Compared to the prior year, core merchandise margin expanded more than 100 basis points compared to last year, include the positive contribution of services, discount controls and strategic sourcing initiatives that generated product cost savings. That benefit was offset by deleveraging of fixed costs, such as occupancy on lower sales, As well as the 50 basis point impact relating to product mix of the digital banners. Moving on to SG and A, our non GAAP you can expect to spend of $524,000,000 or 31.4 percent was 2 40 basis points higher than last year and reflects deleveraging of fixed costs on lower sales and incremental investments and capabilities. And we delivered on our cost savings expectations for the quarter as we continue to identify sourcing opportunities you can see from the slide deck. And leverage the flexibility inherent in our labor model.

Speaker 2

Importantly, in the quarter, our financial services team you reached a 3 year extension with Fred Financial to further secure stability and the cost of our financial services program. All of this builds to a non GAAP operating margin of $106,500,000 or 6.4 percent, which compares to 10.6% in the prior year. The reduction included approximately 200 basis points related to strategic investments And the Blue Nile acquisition for which we expect the margin pressure to abate in the Q3. The balance of the reduction in rate is related to deleveraging of costs on a mid teen comp sales decline. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with over 6 $150,000,000 of cash and equivalents, down $270,000,000 compared to a year ago.

Speaker 2

Excluding $200,000,000 in legal settlements paid this quarter and the nearly $390,000,000 acquisition of Blue Nile In the Q3 of last year, we would have increased our cash by over $300,000,000 We ended the quarter with just Under $2,200,000,000 in inventory. Our inventory was down $33,000,000 compared to last year. Excluding Blue Nile, our core inventory was down $128,000,000 or 6% lower, Reflecting our use of data analytics to inform working capital management on a store by store basis. We've maintained nearly a 1.4 times turn with our capital efficiency efforts and our inventory is healthy, Paving the way for continued newness in our assortment. We continue to value the strength of our debt position With an adjusted debt to EBITDAR leverage ratio of 2.1x and 1.7x on a net debt basis, We remain in a healthy position to execute on our capital priorities and well below our target of less than 2.75 times.

Speaker 2

Capital returns to shareholders continues to be a priority for Cigna. Year to date, we have repurchased $39,000,000 are 500,000 shares and have $761,000,000 in repurchase authorization remaining. We also announced a quarterly cash dividend on common shares this morning of $0.23 per share for the 2nd quarter, payable August 25 to shareholders of record on July 28 this year. Consistent with our rigorous cost control, we are proactively flexing our model to respond to trends in our business. As Gina mentioned, we are increasing our cost savings target for the year from $100,000,000 to a range of 225 to $250,000,000 We expect to achieve this by maximizing our flexible labor model, which allows for dynamic staffing both in stores and in our customer care centers, leveraging AI as a growing capability you can see across many business areas to drive costs out of the system, accelerating the benefits of vertical integration while working with our you can provide.

Speaker 2

And finally, Accelerating the benefits of our investments and capabilities to build competitive advantages. Further, As part of our ongoing evaluation of underperforming stores, we now expect to close-up to 150 stores Over the next 12 months, largely at expiration, we take a holistic approach to drive share market by market, Leveraging our leading consumer insight capabilities at scale. We perform a continuous review of mall, off mall and digital channel activity in a given trade area to ensure we are most effectively supporting our connected commerce experience. Most of these closures will likely be in traditional mall locations. Compared to fiscal 2020, off mall and outlet Comparable revenues have outperformed malls by over 800 basis points and we've seen over 70% growth Incomparable e commerce revenue.

Speaker 2

Further, compared to fiscal 2020, comp sales of stores in our top seven markets Have outperformed our remaining fleet by more than 500 basis points as we continue our strategy to drive share in top markets. I'll now turn to guidance. As a result of the timing trends in late April and through the Q2 to date, We expect the current softness will continue throughout the year and have updated our guidance to account for a lower range of top line outcomes. We believe the current trend reflects the impact of increasing macro pressures on discretionary categories, including the jewelry industry. For example, going into Mother's Day, we expected to see a $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 shift from Q1 into Q2 as a result of timing, and we did not see this shift materialize.

Speaker 2

Additionally, we began to see softening at higher price points, which previously had been relatively insulated And lower price points remained under pressure. With this in mind, we expect revenue in the second quarter to be in the range of $1,530,000,000 to $1,580,000,000 We expect non GAAP operating income In the range of $85,000,000 to $100,000,000 This outlook includes a small portion of the cost actions we detailed earlier you can provide. As well as the continuation of strategic investments and the impact of the Blue Nile acquisition in the quarter. Looking to the full year, we now expect fiscal 'twenty four revenue in the range of $7,100,000,000 to $7,300,000,000 With the 4th quarter year over year performance expected to be slightly higher than the 2nd and third quarters. In addition to bridal recovery and the 53rd week in Q4 this year, we will be lapping the U.

Speaker 2

K. Strikes you can take to address during last year's holiday season. We now expect revenue for the year to decline between 7% to 9% after reducing our Full year revenue expectations by approximately $550,000,000 We anticipate that we will outperform the industry Despite a higher bridal mix, thus driving market share gains, we now expect non GAAP operating income in the range of $635,000,000 to $675,000,000 reflecting lower revenue, the additional Cost savings impacting both gross margin and SG and A, primarily in the second half of the year and maintaining strategic investments. This represents a non GAAP operating margin of approximately 9% or a low double digit margin, excluding the investments, Showcasing the true flexibility of our model. This translates to a non GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $9.49 to $10.09 which reflects a reduction of interest expense for the year And share repurchases through today to partially offset reduced expectations in operating income.

Speaker 2

Before we move on to Q and A, I want to thank our team members who exemplify our culture for their resilience and agility, which consistently drive results And now I'd like to open the line for Q and A.

Operator

Our first question today comes from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Ike. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning. Excuse me.

Speaker 4

I guess, one two questions. I think one for Joan, one for Jenna. Joan, on the 150 store closures, any chance you could tell us that you said they're underperforming, but what's the revenue and EBIT associated with those stores? Are they Losing money. Just kind of curious if there's any more color there.

Speaker 4

And then, Jenna, understanding the lowering of the guide, you talked about accelerating some of the investments, which is why the margins are below your double digit target. Does that mean that when we get into next year, assuming engagement

Speaker 2

you can So I'll start Ike with the stores. Up to 150 stores that we believe are underperforming are a mix. In fact, stores that are not cash flow positive and stores that are down trending and we believe with The current view of the year in terms of our guidance that they're not on the good trajectory. They're not meeting our labor productivity I'm sorry, our store productivity targets. So it's a mixture.

Speaker 2

And on the margin, Ike, thanks for that question. So our operating model is working exactly as we've designed it to, and we are operating at a double digit rate. We've chosen this year because we see an opportunity to lean in to invest about a point and to continue to expand our digital and consumer personalized marketing capabilities. We think this really sets us up to drive an accelerated Share growth, especially as engagements come back. But on an ongoing basis, we are well positioned to deliver those double digit operating margins.

Speaker 2

This is a temporary decision, intentional decision to invest.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Lorraine, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on the new 3 year agreement with you How has the lending standards changed, if at all? Are there any guardrails That give you confidence that they'll continue to lend to your customer base as they have been. Within our agreements, we have very clear guidelines on our lending practices, approval rates.

Speaker 2

Lorraine, what I'd say about what we're seeing within our own credit business is that approval rates Are in fact down. However, it's because we see an increase in applications online. So as you recall, we have the ability to the customers have the ability to apply for credit Online and those approval rates are lower and I think you would see that across the industry. So That's what we're seeing with approval rates. And our payment penetration rates are up overall And roughly 300 basis points.

Speaker 2

And I would also say that the amount financed is also up the range. So We're seeing a good response within the financial services offering. Our partners, Of which Brett is on the prime portfolio, a partner for that. We're seeing health you can see. And we have a very watchful eye on as things move forward, we'll keep an eye on If there's any delinquency or change in approval rates.

Speaker 2

I would say that we have, just as a reminder, we don't have credit risk On our balance sheet. And as you know, we removed that several years ago. Thank you. And then can you provide us with some insight on how you're thinking about gross margin for the rest of the year? I Imagine we'll continue to have the fixed cost deleverage, but what do you think the merchandise margin trajectory will look like in this environment?

Speaker 2

Well, what I'd offer there, Lorene, is that the cost savings that both Jim and I commented on, which increased from $100,000,000 to $125,000,000 to $250,000,000 Half of those impact roughly half impact gross margin And largely in the back half of the year. And what did they relate to? Clearly, product cost savings, Jenna you talked about it, upping that from $20,000,000 to $40,000,000 We're also seeing opportunity given the clearance and the health The clearance position and health of our inventory, Q1, we saw core merchandise margin expansion of 100 basis points. So we're very pleased to see that. So our continued health of our industry of our inventory helps us Manage margin and just use promotion as a strategic lever for us.

Speaker 2

So back half, Just to recap, half of the cost savings is gross margin and SG and A positioned, and we're just leveraging The initiatives and the competitive advantages we've put in place to deliver that. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi. Paul, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks guys. Can you talk about the promotional landscape out there? Curious who's driving it? You guys have Pretty large market share. So I would think that you would typically take more of a lead rather than follow.

Speaker 5

So just want to understand that dynamic a little bit in terms of what you're seeing. And then also on your expectations for the bridal business For the rest of the year. Any way you can quantify that recovery in engagement, how that translates into your bridal business in terms of just what do you expect over the next couple of quarters in bridal 2Q and 3Q versus what you expect in 4Q? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Paul. So let me comment kind of on those in reverse. So on bridal, Our predictive models, which incorporated trends from many years and 45 different factors that we are tracking on consumers are spot on in terms of the number of consumers who are getting engaged And the units of engagement rings that we sold in the quarter. What's changed a bit is the pressure on consumer spending from the macro environment. So we saw some degradation in ATV in bridal late in the quarter.

Speaker 2

That's different from what we saw in Q4. So that's a changing trend and our revised guidance reflects an assumption that units will continue to track In line with our predictions, but we'll continue to see some pressure on ATV. So what's the pressure coming from? It's a combination of 2 things. 1 is a bit of consumer trade down.

Speaker 2

So people still getting engaged, is about buying a ring at a slightly lower price. And we don't think that everyone in the bridal category predicted this downturn in engagements as accurately as we did and have some excess inventory in bridal. And so we've seen Slightly heightened rate of promotion in bridal that we wouldn't typically have seen. We're assuming both of those things continue for the rest of the year

Operator

Our next question comes from Mauricio Serna with UBS. Mauricio, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Great. Good morning and thanks for taking our questions. First, I guess, I'd like to ask On the gross margin guidance, are you expecting to maintain The core merchandise margins expanding in the next couple of quarters. And then if I think about like Industry Dynamics, is there anything you can tell us about like how lab grown diamonds are disrupting maybe ATB or the discounting that you're seeing And just very lastly on the cost savings, the increase that you are expecting, Would you say like that change is like mostly attributed to the savings from the store closure What are the other main drivers behind that increase of $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 on the cost savings target? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So as I mentioned, Mauricio, on gross margin, we are very pleased with Our inventory position and the health of our inventory, which really reflects it within our core businesses. So yes, we would expect to see continued positivity in our positive results in our core merchandise margin. In May, just importantly, in May, we've also saw the continued decline in inventory year over year. So Very pleased with how the team is managing inventory to continue to position us well is to take strategic promotion as needed and really paving the way for newness for us, which is a critical component of continuing to deliver that margin The other point I'd make on margin is services. Services, as we said at our Investor Day, carries a 20% premium to merchandise margin and we're seeing services growth of 5% outpacing clearly you can Merchandise Growth and Services itself.

Speaker 2

When we are advancing repair, we're advancing Our warranty programs as well and the customer continues to respond to those and we're holding very importantly holding our attachment rate in bridal And overall raising attachment rate 200 basis points in the Q1, as Shina mentioned. And then Mauricio, on lab created diamonds, we do not see ATV and bridal being driven by LCDs. They are less than 15% of our overall sales and just an important consumer trend and offering for us. We believe that the majority of our customers still prefer the rarity that comes from buying a one of a kind natural diamond. What tends to happen is that engagement shoppers begin their journey with a predetermined budget.

Speaker 2

And so for those who are open to lab created diamonds, we've consistently seen them trade up to a larger stone, which we have a competitive advantage in our offering because we're vertically integrated. And so we've been able to, I think, really you can manage that very effectively to have an equal or higher ATV typically with a better margin profile for the company. And then with the respect to cost savings, Mauricio, the $150,000,000 increase, A portion of that clearly relates to the store closings. However, we continue to lean into our store, The dynamic store labor model that we have and we apply that as well to our customer care centers, which enables us to continue to flex you can At a nice rate to continue to drive our double digit operating model that we believe is very much intact I'm working. I would also articulate that the sourcing opportunities itself are that provide cost transparency.

Speaker 2

We believe we can take costs out of The product without compromising quality and innovation and that is factored into here as well as Driving out administrative costs that the customer just doesn't see and our team is very much, this is a muscle and a rigor that we've built you can take over the last 2 to 3 years. And we are in step and plan and see the

Speaker 3

And did you provide or can you talk about The signing bonus for the Brett Financial contract renewal?

Speaker 2

We didn't you mentioned that we have an appropriate arrangement with Brad. We've extended it 3 years. It's a very strong Partnership for us and we believe strongly that this helps us really stabilize a view of cost of funds As we navigate into the future together.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thank you very much and best of luck.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Sanderson with Northcoast Research. Jim, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, thanks for the question. I wanted to dig in a little bit more to the same store sales expectation based on the revised guidance. Should we anticipate a continued negative double digit teen comp pretty much through the holiday quarter? And can you give us a sense of how you're looking at that balance between Transaction value in declines and actual transactions throughout the rest of the fiscal year.

Speaker 2

You can So I'll take that, Jim. So in terms of the pace across the year, I mentioned that we would expect 2nd and third quarter to continue, the trends that we saw in 1st quarter. Q4, we see it slightly higher due to a few things, and we don't really give comp guidance, As you know, so when you look at it on a total revenue basis, there are a few things in there. One is the fact that we have a 53rd week. We're lapping the U.

Speaker 2

K. Labor strikes. We also had a significant impact over holiday, The last 3 days of holiday due to weather, although bear in mind, we're very well aware that that can happen again. And then I'd say, lastly, the bridal recovery is factored into the Q4 as well. But to Jenna's point, we are very mindful and thoughtful about the ATV level that we're seeing in bridal today and we have carried that through the balance of the year in our guidance.

Speaker 2

So we would expect Continued decline in transaction, the same impact on ATV that We saw in the Q1 related to bridal, and we're positioned for with good inventories and healthy inventories to Take the appropriate promotional actions that we believe we would need

Speaker 7

to take throughout the year.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay. Just a follow-up question on the 150 store closure announcement, I think that will be complete sometime in fiscal 2025. Can you give us a sense, first of all, of what you would expect based on your history with closing stores? How much of the sales from the closed stores you would expect to recapture From omni channel and then wondering if you can provide any thoughts on what type of positive impact that will have on EBIT margin going forward.

Speaker 2

You We haven't mentioned the overall impact of the store closings, but clearly, it's part of our $250,000,000 cost savings program. What I would say is that what we see in transference is we have stronger transference In our largest banners, the Kagan sales banner. And as I said, We would expect most of these closures to occur in traditional mall locations. So We've seen nice transference there. We have been able to capture if you look at our sales per square feet Over the last several years, we've seen significant increase in sales per square feet indicating that as we've as you know, over the last 5 years, We've closed 5 to 6 years, we've closed over 1,000 stores and we've had a significant increase in sales for selling square foot.

Speaker 2

So we expect as well to pick up volume within our e commerce channel.

Speaker 6

All right. And just one like quick last question on Blue Nile. That will be fully included in the comp base by the Q4?

Speaker 2

Yes. And as you recall, Will, we acquired it in mid August. We acquired Blue Nile. And that business is doing quite nicely for us in terms of the combination of the digital banners has really demonstrated strength. Synergies are pacing to expectation and really expect to we'll have the replatforming done For the start of the Q3.

Speaker 2

So really, as you recall, we said last quarter that we expect a one point impact on our EBIT margins related to that acquisition in the 1st and second quarter, and that begins to abate in the 3rd Q4 of next year. So very good news.

Speaker 5

All right.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Very good. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead Dana. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everyone. As you think about the current environment and the volatility, The market share opportunities given the large size that independents are of the jewelry industry, what do you see as any Quantitative market share opportunities you have, especially with the new businesses that you've acquired that expand the customer base. Is there maybe even into next year revenue opportunities that you can leverage with services That you're thinking about as we move forward. And then lastly, in the current environment, obviously, we know about the Vital business. What are you seeing in self purchase?

Speaker 7

And what are you seeing by brand there? And just one other quick thing, any Shift in the exit rate of the business versus during the quarter and did it vary by region? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So, in terms of market share, Dana, we see this as a huge opportunity. One of the things we've done in our transformation is created the flexibility by having lean inventory, by paying down our you said by creating a fortress balance sheet. We've created the flexibility to invest in the midst of disruption. That's what we did when we acquired Blue Nile that what we think was a very favorable price. We were able because of our cash position to do that.

Speaker 2

And we find ourselves in a similar position now where we see significant disruption in the industry. And so we're leaning in and playing offense. If you look at the Q1, we believe that we grew share in bridal relative to independents. If you look at fashion, we have been building our fashion business to increase it as a percent of our total mix for the last 3 years In preparation for this moment that we anticipated that engagements would be down based on the COVID lack of dating is 3 years ago. So we've grown our fashion business 36% over the last several years in preparation for this moment.

Speaker 2

So that's why we've made the choice, to lean in and continue those investments, so that especially As engagements return, which we think happens toward the end of this fiscal year in our Q4, you can see. And ultimately, as macro pressures abate, we are ready to really put our foot on the accelerate and move ahead more quickly. So we are seeing that as a big opportunity this year. And I appreciate you asking that because I hope that's a key takeaway from this call Is that we are leaning in to accelerate our competitive advantages. In terms of self purchase, We are seeing self purchase at higher price points continue.

Speaker 2

Lower price points continue to be pressured, But we're very pleased with the breadth of our banner portfolio and how that is allowing us to play into consumer trends at all price you can provide. So for example, Bantur represents a strong self purchase opportunity for us. We've seen the lower price points a bit challenged, but with our scale, we can bring excellent value. So we believe that we're performing better as a result and We lean into services like piercing, which really has been growing. We've I think I mentioned a couple A quarter ago that we've expanded from just ear piercing to also needle piercing, which has really been a great new service offering for us.

Speaker 2

In the quarter, we leaned in heavily on services. It's a high margin competitive advantage for us and we saw that really work with services Totally changing the trajectory of how they've ever been in the past. Typically, they follow merchandise comps Almost point for point, we were able to grow services 5 percentage points in the quarter even though merchandise was down. So We're pleased with how those competitive advantages are coming to life and all of that's really why we're leaning in to drive more market share growth. On your question on, I guess, exiting the actual rate of the quarter to quarter, we saw the softening you can start, Dana, in the really late into April.

Speaker 2

And we pivoted to strategic promotion, To your point, double down on services. We saw actually late in the quarter services attachment rate go up, Higher than the 200 basis points that we saw during the quarter. And then it continued. The trend continued really across you can see on the fleet and online, we continue to see the same trends

Operator

Those are all the questions we have for today. So I'll turn the call back to the management team for any concluding remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, I want to thank all of you again for joining us today. What I hope you took away is that despite the pressured environment in which we're operating, our flexible operating model and strategic investments are working. We are confident in our capabilities and so we're playing offense, leaning in to widen our competitive advantages to drive market share growth. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes the Signet Jewelers Q1 earnings call and you may now disconnect your line.

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Earnings Conference Call
Signet Jewelers Q1 2024
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