RTX Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 25, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Chris Kallio, President and Chief Operating Officer Neil Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www dotrtx.com.

Operator

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non recurring and or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including its Forms 8 ks, 10 Q and 10 ks provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit yourself your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. Time permits.

Operator

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hays.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. It was another strong quarter for RTX with continued strength across all of our end markets. On the commercial aerospace side, industry wide, We saw 1200 new orders announced around the Paris Air Show. This is the largest number of orders in the history of the Air Show as airlines look to secure production slots well into the next decade.

Speaker 1

Global commercial air traffic remains on track with our Projections with a very robust summer travel season driven by incredibly strong consumer demand. This dynamic is supporting strength in the aftermarket and growth Across the globe with revenue passenger kilometers now tracking at about 95% of 2019 levels. In long haul international, which has lagged in the recovery, is showing strong growth with passenger flight hours up 18 points year over year, a good indicator of increasing demand for wide body travel. Turning to defense. We're pleased that the House Defense appropriation bill fully funds many of our programs, including importantly the F135 engine core upgrade, which is the only engine funded for the F-thirty 5 Joint Strike Fighter.

Speaker 1

Additionally, the bill also recommends the full budget request for other key RTX programs Such as LTAMs, LRSO, hypersonics and Standard Missile 3. Internationally, We saw the State Department approve a large sale of advanced air defense systems for Poland as it bolsters its security amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This would expand our existing partnership with Poland and make Poland the 1st international customer for our LTAM system, representing a key transition for this next generation Raytheon franchise. Before we get into details As you saw in our press release this morning, we are working through an issue resulting from a rare condition in powdered metal that will require Pratt and Whitney to remove some engines from service I want to make just a couple of comments here at the outset. First of all, it's important to know that we understand the issue and we have begun to address it through an inspection protocol that we already have in place.

Speaker 1

That said, clearly, this will have an impact on Pratt and Whitney and our customers. Chris and Neil provide additional color later in the call on how we're going to address the issue as well as the operational and financial impacts. As you'd expect, we'll dedicate all the necessary resources to manage this. Now let's turn to Slide 2 to go through some key highlights from the quarter. Q2 2 was another strong quarter of strong demand in both the commercial and defense segments of our business with $25,000,000,000 of new orders.

Speaker 1

This brings our total backlog to a record $185,000,000,000 On the commercial side, Collins continues to convert its industry leading portfolio into solid order strength. As I mentioned, industry wide, there were about 1200 new aircraft orders announced in Paris. The aggregate amount of Collins and Pratt content on those aircraft will be about $20,000,000,000 for the life of the programs. On the defense side across the RTX businesses, We captured $13,000,000,000 in new bookings in the quarter, driving a strong book to bill of 1.22 and this takes our defense backlog to $73,000,000,000 Contributing to the backlog in the second quarter were a number of significant awards, including $2,000,000,000 at Pratt and Whitney for the Lot 17 of the F135 engines and $1,500,000,000 for 1 100 and 17 sustainment. The Raytheon segment was awarded its largest ever AMRAAM contract for $1,200,000,000 From the U.

Speaker 1

S. Air Force and international partners, including Ukraine. The AMRAAMs will work in concert with their existing NASAM batteries to help protect the Ukrainian people. Earlier this month, we executed the business realignment. We are now officially operating as 3 business units.

Speaker 1

Our team has done a tremendous job in a relatively short period of time, shifting roughly $3,000,000,000 of sales and thousands of employees across our portfolio to better meet the evolving needs of our customers. Of course, our transformation isn't done. We will continue to develop Initiatives to better leverage our scale and breadth and to enable operational excellence and a best in class cost structure. Finally, as many of you saw last week, we agreed to divest Collins Actuation business to Safran. We expect this deal to close in the second half of twenty twenty four with proceeds from the transaction will be about $1,800,000,000 With respect to our full year outlook, we're going to raise the top line to reflect the strength we're seeing in our end markets.

Speaker 1

The new range will be $73,000,000,000 to $74,000,000,000 And We're also going to bring up the bottom end of our adjusted EPS range by a nickel to $4.95 to 5.05 However, we are going to reduce our 2023 cash flow expectations by $500,000,000 to 4,300,000,000 This is primarily to reflect the developments at Pratt and Whitney that I discussed earlier. So with that, let me turn it over to Neil to walk you through our financial results in more detail. Neil? Thanks, Greg. Let's look at

Speaker 2

Q2 results on Slide 3. As Greg noted, we had another solid quarter with sales of $18,300,000,000 up a Earnings per share of $1.29 was up 11% year over year with strong adjusted segment operating profit growth of 26%, partially offset by lower pension income and a higher effective tax rate. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.90 per share included $0.26 of acquisition accounting adjustments, an $0.08 charge related to an airline customer insolvency and $0.05 of restructuring and segment and portfolio transformation costs. Free cash flow of $193,000,000 was generally in line with what we discussed when we were together in Paris last month. And finally, on the capital allocation front, We repurchased $596,000,000 in shares, putting us at about $1,200,000,000 year to date, on track for $3,000,000,000 in share repurchases for the full year.

Speaker 2

So let's turn to Slide 4 to get into the Q2 segment results. Beginning with RMD, sales were $4,000,000,000 in the quarter, up 12% on an adjusted basis and 13% organically, primarily driven by higher volume from Air Power, Advanced Technology and Land Warfare and Air Defense Programs. Adjusted operating profit of $427,000,000 was up $79,000,000 versus the prior year, driven by favorable net program efficiencies and drop through on higher volume, partially offset by unfavorable mix resulting from early stage production programs. RMD had $3,600,000,000 of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book to bill of $0.92 and a backlog of $35,000,000,000 In addition to the AMRAAM award that Greg mentioned earlier, RMD also received a $265,000,000 award for Javelin and a $251,000,000 award for AIM-9X Missiles. Year to date, RMD has a book to bill of 1.17.

Speaker 2

Shifting to RINs on Slide 5. Sales of $3,700,000,000 were up 2% versus the prior year on an adjusted and organic basis. This was driven by higher revenue from sensing and effects as well as cyber and services programs, which was partially offset by lower sales from command, control and communications programs. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $297,000,000 was down $18,000,000 versus prior year, primarily due to unfavorable mix and higher operating expenses, which more than offset improved productivity and drop through on higher volume. However, as I mentioned in June, we still saw unfavorable productivity in the quarter due to a handful of In the quarter, our INS had $3,100,000,000 of bookings, resulting in a book to bill of 0.96 and a backlog of $17,000,000,000 Bookings in Q2 at RIS included about $1,100,000,000 in classified awards at $322,000,000 for Federal and Civil Cyber Defense Services.

Speaker 2

And on a year to date basis, RIS has a book to bill of 1.15. Turning to Collins on Slide 6. Sales were $5,900,000,000 in the quarter, 17% on an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by strong demand across commercial aerospace end markets, which resulted in higher flight hours and higher OE production rates. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 29%, driven by a 68% increase in provisioning and a 28% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 9% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 7%.

Speaker 2

On the commercial OE side, commercial OE sales were up 14% versus the prior year, which included growth in wide body, narrow body and business jets. And military sales were up 5% due to higher development volume. Adjusted operating profit of $837,000,000 was up $220,000,000 or 36% from the prior year with drop through on higher sales volume and favorable mix, which more than offset higher production costs as well as higher R and D and SG and A expenses. Turning to Pratt and Whitney on Slide 7. Sales of $5,700,000,000 were up 15% on an adjusted and organic basis, with sales growth across the commercial segments partially offset by lower military volume.

Speaker 2

Commercial aftermarket sales were up 26 Commercial OE sales were up 22% in the quarter on higher engine deliveries and favorable mix. And in the military business, sales were down 3%. The decline in sales was driven by the timing of the F135 production contract award in the prior year, which was partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume this year. Adjusted operating profit of $436,000,000 was up $133,000,000 from prior year with drop through on higher commercial aftermarket sales and favorable large commercial OE mix, partially offset by higher production costs and higher R and D expenses. Note that both this quarter and the prior year quarter had a similar contract benefit of roughly $60,000,000 With that, before we get into the updated outlook for 2023, let me turn it over to Chris to give some additional color on the Pratt fleet.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Neil.

Speaker 3

Let me share with you what I can at this point about the Pratt matter. As you heard from Greg, Pratt previously determined that a rare condition in powdered metal used to manufacture certain engine parts may reduce the life of those parts. Now it's important to note upfront that the current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. I'll come back to that in a minute. As a result of this rare condition powdered metal, Pratt instituted enhanced inspections to be performed at scheduled shop visits.

Speaker 3

However, based on very recent learnings from these inspections, Pratt has now determined that the timing of these shop visits needs to be accelerated. While powdered metal parts have been widely used throughout Pratt's product lines for decades, Pratt has bounded the potentially impacted material. It has concluded that this condition was present in rare instances in powdered metal produced from approximately Q4 2015 into Q3 2021. The PW1100 engine fleet, which powers the A320neo, will experience the most significant impact due to production volumes during this period. Based on the current assessment, Pratt anticipates by mid September that approximately 200 PW1100 engines will be removed for enhanced inspection.

Speaker 3

Beyond the initial 200 engines, Pratt also anticipates that approximately 1,000 additional PW1100 engines will need to be removed from the operating fleet for this inspection within the next 9 to 12 months. So the exact number of engines and the timing of those removals is not yet finalized. Now it's important to note that some of the engines that must be removed for inspection in 2023 2024 are already forecasted for a regular shop visit during this time period. And so the incremental impact of the fleet is still under evaluation. Capability to perform the accelerated inspections, which are focused on the high pressure turbine disks, is already in place and Pratt is developing plans to optimize shop visit capacity within its network to complete these inspections as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Speaker 3

As I said earlier, current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. This is a result of the combination of extensive improvements that were made to our powder processing to remove possible contamination sources and the deployment of enhanced inspections for improved detection. Pratt is also analyzing any potential impact to other parts of its fleet, but the current expectation is that they will be less impacted based upon existing inspections, utilization profiles and maintenance intervals. So let me take a moment to explain the timing of these developments. We proactively monitor the performance of our engines throughout their lifecycle.

Speaker 3

It's foundational to how we maintain and manage the safe operation of our fleet. We're actively testing certain parts to analyze their material properties and characterizing what we observe. We use learnings from this proactive monitoring to inform our predictive models So we can address any issues before they appear on our fleet. In this case, as Pratt analyzed some recent inspection findings, it determined the need for an accelerated inspection plan, even though the fallout rate from these inspections is expected to be very low. The next step is for Pratt to publish a service bulletin describing the inspections and the FAA will likely follow-up with the near worthiness directive.

Speaker 3

Financial impact associated with these removals is still being analyzed It will depend on a number of factors, including the result of the inspections, the amount of work needed to be done in our network shops and of course the impact on our customers. This is obviously a difficult situation for our customers, especially given the strong demand for travel. We're truly sorry for the impact of this disruption, We will do all we can to support our customers. Safety always has been and always will be our number one priority, and We will never compromise in ensuring the safe operation of our fleet. We will of course continue to keep you apprised as our analysis progresses on both the operational and financial impacts of these accelerated With that, let me turn it over to Neil to talk about how this impacts our 2023 outlook.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 2

Let's start with the segment outlook. As Chris mentioned, there continue to be a number of evolving assumptions around the financials of Pratt. Let me try to put some additional color around that starting with the top line. Commercial aftermarket demand remains strong and we are continuing to ramp production. Because of this, we are confident in our prior sales range of up low to mid teens.

Speaker 2

On the profit side, Given the strong first half results and continued top line growth, we still expect between $200,000,000 $275,000,000 of operating profit growth for the year. Within that outlook for Pratt, here's what we are assuming as it relates to the increased engine removals and inspections. Given Pratt's results to date and aftermarket strength, the impact for the first two 100 engines is contemplated within the range we just provided. Keep in mind, given the percentage of completion accounting for the aftermarket contracts and the relatively early life of the programs, The P and L impact will be less significant today. However, for the reasons Chris described, the impact of any further engine removals 1st half and the continued strength we are seeing in commercial aftermarket, we are increasing the full year sales range from up low double digits to a new range of up low double digits to low teens.

Speaker 2

And as a result of this increased demand and continued execution, We now expect Collins adjusted operating profit to be up between $825,000,000 $875,000,000 compared to the prior range of $750,000,000 to $825,000,000 Turning to the new Raytheon segment. Given the strength of the backlog and the accelerating top line, We expect sales for the combined segment to grow low to mid single digits versus 2022. While we have begun to see increased material flow and improved efficiencies, We had lower productivity than we expected in the first half of the year, including costs associated with fixed price development programs. And similar to Q1, we anticipate another contract option exercise that will lead to a headwind in the Q3. With all that said, We're expecting continued volume growth and second half productivity improvements and altogether with the adjusted operating profit up between $125,000,000 100 and $75,000,000 versus prior year.

Speaker 2

So now let me summarize all this at the RTX level. As Greg mentioned, we're increasing our full year RTX Sales outlook to $73,000,000,000 to $74,000,000,000 which translates to organic growth of between 9% 10%. This is up from our prior outlook of $72,000,000,000 to $73,000,000,000 With respect to earnings, We are tightening our adjusted earnings per share range by $0.05 on the bottom end and now expect adjusted EPS of between $4.95 and $5.05 given the first half results and some improvement in below the line items. And we provided an update on those below the line items in the appendices. Turning to free cash flow, the impact of the frat matter will be more meaningful on cash flow as we begin to ramp up inspections and MRO activity this year.

Speaker 2

As a result, we now see free cash flow of approximately $4,300,000,000 for the year, about $500,000,000 below our prior outlook. And finally, we'll transition to the new segment reporting here in the Q3 and we provided the recasted 20222023 quarterly financials in the appendices. So with that, let me turn it over to Greg for some closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks, Neil. So Just some closing thoughts before we get to the Q and A. We obviously had a very strong second quarter with $25,000,000,000 in new orders, which brings our backlog to a record $185,000,000,000 Sales were also very strong with 13% organic revenue growth. This strength in sales and orders reflects the As we exit 2023 and military spending globally continues to increase in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the emerging threats in the Indo Paycom theater.

Speaker 1

Based on the continued strength in our markets, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for 2023 and beyond. With that, let's open up the call for questions.

Operator

In the interest of time and to allow for broader participation, Our first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

Speaker 4

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Speaker 1

Hey, Rob.

Speaker 4

Let's start with the GTF, shall we? If I may count, this is the 3rd issue you're dealing with at the moment. You have that quality escape noted at Paris, the ongoing time on wing issues in these challenging environments and now the metal problem. Is there a root problem or cause that's linking these issues? And are you concerned about the potential impact on Pratt's reputation for reliability?

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Rob. This is Chris. I'll start. Obviously, this is a disappointing development and will impact Our customers, let me just sort of take a step back and kind of walk you through, sort of the processes that are in place across Pratt.

Speaker 3

It's got a strong process of fleet surveillance, evaluation and taking corrective action that is used to support the safety In this particular case, the process worked. But I will tell you that again, we continue to monitor the situation with the fleet. We continue to Find learnings in the fleet and then we take those actions and update our models and correct them. But if you step back, this is not a GTF Design issue, this is a manufacturing process issue on our powdered metal. We very quickly went and enhanced those processes to make This doesn't happen again and put in place the enhanced inspection techniques to make sure that we can continue to find this and address them promptly.

Speaker 3

So we're taking prompt action. Right now, we've got to now work through how we define work scope and the turnaround time that's required and of course do all the impact to the fleet that's going to be required again. Talked about in the comments upfront, GTF is going to have a lot of shop visits here in the back half of 2023 and into 20 24. We need to figure out how many of those are incremental And what the true impact of the fleet is, but that's ongoing. But again, we're going to continue to invest in the GTF and the durability improvements that Shane talked about at Investor Day in June and of course the GTF advantage.

Speaker 3

We will work through this difficult time. But again, we continue to believe in the GTF,

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. And Neil, I'm trying to understand the scaling of the $500,000,000 lower free cash flow to the total population of engines You're going to be removing and inspecting. I think you said that the 200, the first 200 are encompassed in the guidance, but it wasn't clear if that was just the segment Profit guidance we're talking about.

Speaker 5

And also, obviously, this is lingering into 'twenty four to get that whole 1200 population. So Should we think about a similar size cash impact in 2024?

Speaker 2

Got it. Let me start with what I can tell you now. First, Let me remind you, it's very early in this process. We have begun to investigate what the costs Since the work scope and the timing might be, but there'll be some learnings over the next 30 to 60 days and we'll certainly come back and talk to you a little bit about that. As I think about the guidance, the comment I made was with respect to the Pratt guidance.

Speaker 2

Again, we had a first half that was very strong at Pratt. I think we're well on track for the year, all else equal. But a couple of dynamics that will likely keep the P and L impact Associated with the 200 accelerated inspections manageable for the year, first is we've talked about 85% of this fleet is under a long term contract And we're less than 5% complete on those programs on average. And so I don't know, as Chris just mentioned, we don't know exactly how many, but some of those 200 are already scheduled for a visit this year. So when we think about those two things, that sort of helps us bound what the impact could be for this year with respect to that population.

Speaker 2

Given the 1,000 and the fact that a number of those are also already scheduled for a shop visit, we still need some more time to go think through that. As it relates to the cash flow, similar train of thought there. We really do need a little bit more time to go through this, but We put a risk into our outlook because we know that we'll have some calls on cash over the rest of the year. I would say there's 2 things that are impacting the cash flow. First is what I'd call the direct impact and the second is what I'd call the indirect.

Speaker 2

On the direct side, it's really going to be things like accelerated capital, Some inventory to get ready for these inspections, expenses associated with the work that will start to perform during the last quarter of the year And then obviously customer disruption. So more to go there. Indirectly, there's other work that this may disrupt in our business. And so we're contemplating some of that as we look at this year. I think it's a bit too early to kind of extrapolate that out to 2024 and 2025.

Speaker 2

Certainly, we'll come back over the next Couple of months to provide a better update.

Speaker 5

And can you clarify if the powder metal supplier is internal to you?

Speaker 1

It is Myles, this is Greg. Yes. So we actually manufacture the powder at our facility in New York. That powder is then processed down at our Columbus, Georgia forge into a number of different parts. The parts we're talking about here are turbine discs, But they are all internally manufactured with a proprietary powder.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hey, good morning. Question for you, Greg, right. And then kind of getting back to Rob's question. When you look at the litany of issues that have happened here with this engine, everything from hot section issues, manufacturing issues,

Speaker 3

Do you

Speaker 6

have a cultural issue in your engineering workforce? Are people not talking to each other? And I mean it also begs the question, how could you guys possibly not know about this at Paris when you did this major investor event? So can you just give us all some insight into how people are communicating and what's going on in your engineering workforce?

Speaker 1

Yes. Ron, we should differentiate between the durability issues that Shane talked about and I call this the manufacturing quality issue. Let's just take a step back, right? This is an issue that we first uncovered back in 2020 when we had an incident with the V2500 turbine disc. As a result of that investigation, we determined at that point that we had some contamination in this powdered metal that we make.

Speaker 1

It occurred very, very rarely, but it did happen And it actually resulted in the turbine disc failure on an airline. As a result of that, we went through and Did two things. First of all, we went out and inspected the V2500 fleet, but we also went back and we took a look at the powdered metal process to Determine how this contamination happened. Through a lot of work, through a lot of discovery, we figured out what the contaminants were. And by the end of 2021, about a year after that, we were able to manufacture powder that was, I would say, contaminant free to the best of our ability.

Speaker 1

At the same time, we knew that this contamination had occurred between late 2015 and Late 2020, early 2021. So we knew we had a suspect population in the fleet. And we went out and like And so we started inspecting. We inspected the turbine disc as they were manufactured. We inspected turbine discs as they came back in, not just for the V, but for the whole GTF fleet, in fact, the entire fleet of Pratt products that were manufactured during this timeframe.

Speaker 1

Those inspections and there were over 3,000 of those inspections yielded a very, very small fallout rate, less than 1%. So as Chris said, all of this data goes into our lifing model for the turbine disc. And based upon everything that we knew until very recently, We believe that the life of the turbine disc was such that we would see these discs in the shop and be able to inspect them before we ever had an issue. Now as we again looked at the data again over the last couple of months, our safety risk assessment, our safety board Went through their process of updating the data based on all the recent findings and they said, you know what, we're not absolutely positive that the life in model is accurate. And so we're going to take it we want to take a look at these disks at a much accelerated basis.

Speaker 1

I would tell you that is exactly the way the process is supposed to work. And so we're going to pull back 200 disks or 200 engines and look at the disks here in the next 90 days or so. In the next year based upon those findings from the first two hundred, we think there's probably another 1,000 out there. So 1200 out of a little over 3,000 Engines out there have to be inspected, but this is not a manufacturer I'm sorry, it's not a design issue. In fact, the engineers have been working on this issue hand in glove with Safety Board and everybody else in manufacturing for the last 3 years.

Speaker 1

So I don't believe that we have an engineering issue. Obviously, this was a quality escape back from sometime between 2015 2020. And we are doing, I think, exactly the right thing, which is to bring these engines back, Inspect them and ensure the safety of the fleet going forward. And I think again, it's obviously, look, this engine is Ron, as you know, has been a challenge Since we launched it back in 2015, you guys can remember talking about boat rotors and all the other issues that we had. But if you think about this engine operating at the temperatures that we do, it has been a continuous discovery.

Speaker 1

This is not one of them. This is simply a quality issue from a manufacturing problem. So I would say, look, we're on top of it. We've got this. It's going to be expensive.

Speaker 1

We're going to make the airlines whole as a result of the disruption we're going to cause them. And I think We're going to work ourselves

Speaker 2

through it.

Speaker 1

It's not an existential threat to RTX, it's not even an existential threat to Pratt. It is a problem and we have them every day and we'll solve it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Amat of Baird.

Speaker 7

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Greg, thanks for that color there. I appreciate that. On the powdered metal just specifically, did you When did you make the change?

Speaker 7

Was it kind of when back in 2020 or 2021? Just so we can have better clarity on the engines that are

Speaker 1

Yes. So it was mid to late 2021 where we changed all the processes in terms of the screening Of the powdered metal to identify the contaminate to eliminate the contaminant. Let's be clear. I mean, this is a these contaminants are microscopic. And unfortunately, the original process as we scaled up production for GTF, it got away from us a little bit And we fixed it, but I would tell you everything that we have shipped or almost everything we have shipped, I should say, in the last 3 years we believe is going to be just That's why we're confident we can continue to support Airbus, continue to support customers with new deliveries as well as with spares this year and next.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

Speaker 8

Good morning, guys. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Good morning.

Speaker 8

Just on free cash flow, can we walk through the bridge $1,200,000,000 of free cash flow usage in the first half, dollars 4,300,000,000 expectation for the year. How do you think about the biggest drivers on a segment level basis and working capital, what are your expectations for factoring for the year, whether it's a benefit or a headwind? And do we think about 500,000,000 impact for 200 engines, is that the rate we should assume going forward in future years or is that something you guys are working through?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sheila. This is Neil, and good morning. I will take that one. First of all, on the $500,000,000 I wouldn't extrapolate that. We need some more time, as I said earlier in the call.

Speaker 2

So let's just kind of focus on 2023. As I look at the walk From the first half to the second half, I'll also say that we ended the quarter with positive cash flow pretty much as So the back half of the year is as we expected it to be. Obviously, there's some work to do there to generate the cash, but Consistent with the profile we had last year, the major pieces really are I put it in 4 major buckets. Obviously, we have the rest of the year segment operating profit. It's a little less than $4,000,000,000 or so.

Speaker 2

Feel pretty good about that, consistent with the guides that we just provided and updated. We've got capital, second half capital, which is going to be a headwind of about $1,400,000,000 And then we've got a working capital Item that we have to kind of burn down, it's about $3,500,000,000 about $2,000,000,000 of that is inventory. I'd say split pretty evenly between Pratt and Collins and then $1,000,000,000 of the net contract asset liabilities, which is principally in the Raytheon segment. And that's that lines up to milestone payments we expect to receive in the back half of the year as well as some international Advances similar to what we had last year that would occur late in Q4. The rest of the puts and takes are really the things we've talked about pension, taxes, Interest and other, the net of that is about $500,000,000 of an outflow in the second half.

Speaker 2

So again, same profile we were staring at 30 five, 45 days ago. We've layered in the Pratt impact. I think that mostly will impact working capital. It may have some CapEx as well.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Christine. Good morning.

Speaker 8

For the Pratt issue, it seems like the free cash flow impact in 2024, 2025 is still a little bit unclear. How should we think about how this affects your 2025 free cash flow outlook of 9,000,000,000 And is that still the number you're reiterating or should we think about potential downside risks?

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, Christine. I'll take that to start. I mean, clearly, all things equal, the issue we just talked about is going to put some pressure on Pratt margins. It would put pressure on I think it's too early to put a number on that. We're going to need some time to go through and understand what's the work scope, how does that intersect with Already planned work scope and the profile of those shop visits.

Speaker 2

And of course, we're always focused on trying to drive more out of our businesses and we would do the same So I think I'll leave it at that. We will come back to you over the next couple of months with more detail. Greg? Yes,

Speaker 1

just maybe the way to think about this is, so we're going to pull 200 engines back this year, bunch of those are going to come back anyways. And then next year is another 1,000 and a bunch of those were already planned. Having said that though, we know right now we've got 13 MRO facilities. We're going to have to go Our plan was to go to 2019. We're going to have to accelerate some of the tooling that's contemplated in this cash.

Speaker 1

We're going to have to dedicate some spares to a rotable pool of engines to support some customers. Those things again will be behind us, I would say probably by the middle of next year in terms of the cash outflows associated with that. The big question in everybody's mind will be, what are we going to have to do in terms of compensation to the airlines. We have contracts, Special support agreements that are out there. So we'll work through that, but it's going to take time.

Speaker 1

I guess the main point though is By the end of next year, this inspection program will be almost all complete and the 2025 outlook Really shouldn't be impacted other than as Neil said, potential margin impact as some of these costs roll through the GTF support contracts. But Again, it's we've got 2 years to work through that and we will figure that out. But in terms of the cash, really probably not a big difference as you get out to 2025.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks very much and good morning. I wanted to ask a question about the Raytheon business. It looks like and I want to make sure I've got the right Recast numbers here, but it looks like first half to second half kind of only kind of a modest sales increase expected, but fairly healthy profit increase to get to the $150,000,000 of profit growth at midpoint. And so, I guess if you could talk a little bit about what gives you confidence in that, especially in light of the option exercise you mentioned? And then also, I thought there was Pretty good top line momentum in R and D in the quarter and the degree to which you do or don't expect that to continue in the second half?

Speaker 3

Hey, Seth. This is Chris. When you look at RMD, we'll break it down into The pieces of the new Raytheon segment. When you look at RMD, we start to see some positive momentum, in particular around material growth, right, about 14% Year over year material growth, the kit fill rates that we've talked about for some time that we're hovering in those mid to low 50s We're up into the mid-70s. So we're starting to see material flow, which is a big part of the continued productivity story at RMD.

Speaker 3

At RIS, I would say again less material intensive, but very good material flow in kit fill rates. The issue That we're continuing to grapple with there are the fixed price development contracts that we've got. We've mentioned before, we've got a handful of Fixed price development contracts that are technologically very complex that we continue to work our way through. We believe we'll make significant progress on those here in 2023 and into early 2024. But overall, Again, seeing positive momentum on the productivity front at Raytheon.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. Let me add a couple of comments Regarding productivity, I think the first half of the year was encouraging in some regards. We turned the corner a bit, I think on a year over year basis for the first half of the new combined business, we're essentially flat year over year. We are expecting about $100,000,000 of Productivity step up in the second half of the year. Think about that as I'm sorry, on a full year basis, so about $75,000,000 or so in the second half

Speaker 3

of the

Speaker 2

year. And the material receipts is what makes us have the confidence around that path to the second half of the year. The other encouraging point I would say is particularly at the missile business, we saw the sales tick up on that material receipt and the mix of that material had a good drop So we're starting to see the transition of the mix of production from development. We talked about 2023 being the low point. So, that's how we've calibrated this into this revised outlook.

Speaker 2

We've also taken into account the first half performance as we've readjusted this realignment and the second half of the year.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Frank.

Speaker 1

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets. Yes. Hi, good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Ken.

Speaker 9

Hey, Maybe Chris or Neil, if you can dig a little bit further into what you bucketed as the other disruptions as we think about Maybe an incremental diversion of engines into the spare pool and how we think about stresses on the capacity of the network As you deal with not only the 200 this year, but the 1,000 next year. And within that other bucket, where do you see sort of

Speaker 3

Hey, Ken, thanks. This is Chris. I'll start it. As we kind of noted upfront, there are a number of variables that are going into the fleet impacts both this year and next. Work scope, making sure we define that the work scope for these inspections, the turnaround time, I'm trying to get the turnaround time and do this work as quickly and efficiently as possible, making it into a project visit to the extent that we can.

Speaker 3

And then optimizing the network capacity. You just heard Greg say we've got 13 shops across our network today. We're adding more shops, But how do we go and optimize that network because obviously we've got WIP today as you know as we're trying to increase output on the GTF MRO. We've got to make sure that we're inducting the right engines at the right time and making sure that we can do this, I'll call it new work, new inspection work, separate and apart to the extent that we can from the ongoing MRO work. So all of that, I'll call it optimization formula, is still being developed and we're going to need a little bit more time on that.

Speaker 3

In terms of The other disruptions Greg mentioned some of them, but again, we're going to be looking at our network where all of our work is done to try to minimize any disruption on other program, more mature programs perhaps that are going through the MRO cycle. Again, how do we make sure that those continue to flow uninterrupted while we do this work? Those are the types of things we're continuing to work through.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky of Citi.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Jason.

Speaker 9

Good morning. You talked a little bit about the capacity in MRO. Can you talk a little bit about the capacity for the part itself, the internal Manufacturing capability that you have there and whether this is another potential constraint

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Jason. This is Chris. Greg mentioned upfront that we've had this enhanced inspection technique in place for some time have been doing these inspections. On the V2500 in particular, we've had, I think, Greg, you said almost 3,000 of those inspections.

Speaker 3

I will tell you that the fallout rate from that on this part has been very, very low. And so at this particular time, Jason, we don't believe that the HPT will be the limiting factor, if you will, in terms of the turnaround time and our ability to work through this as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Speaker 9

And I mean, if you were to go in to do one of these inspections today, do you have a sense of are we talking about weeks or days Or months to do this inspection?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, we're talking HPT disks, Jason. And That particular module, you can't necessarily do that on wing. You've got to take the engine off wing. You've got to disassemble the engine to get to that particular area.

Speaker 3

Unfortunately, based on the geometry and location of the part, you do have to remove the part to do this, Enhance inspection capability, reassemble and then get it back out to the fleet. So I think I mentioned before, we're trying to turn this into as best we can, We would call a project visit, not a full interval shop visit, but that work is still underway. Obviously, Making sure the wing to wing turnaround time is as short as possible and doing what we need to do is an important element of understanding the fleet impact and what we need to do from a network perspective.

Speaker 9

And is there any silver lining to this at all In the sense that you mentioned optimization on how you're going to deal with these visits and these inspections. Is there an opportunity here to get through some of this durability swap outs that you need to do anyway, so that you can kind of Yes. Kill 2 birds with 1 stone, so to speak, as you do these inspections?

Speaker 3

Yes. So when you think about that 2024 Shop visit population, we're going to again take a look at the utilization on those, the cycle time on those engines And in working with our customers, making a decision, a mutual decision on is this the right candidate for a project visit or should that work scope increase to take on additional work, which will benefit the time on wing and the interval of that engine moving forward several years. That is a decision, that is a conversation That we will have once we better understand again how many of these visits are truly incremental in 2024 and then the related fleet impacts. As you know, Jason, that is a part of the equation.

Speaker 9

And then lastly, do you think you're going to learn enough by the time we have the October earnings call to provide us a little bit more Clarity on things or do you think this is going to be a discovery process that takes us out a number of months into the end of the year?

Speaker 1

Jason, we're discovering something new every day here. So I think all I would tell you is that over the next, I would say, 6 weeks, As we finalize the inspection protocols, as we finalize the turn times and work with our customers, Keep in mind, we're trying to get the first 200 engines back by the middle of September. So I think by the middle of September, we'll have a much better feel for What is involved here and we'll have an opportunity to update everybody around that time. I think by the time we get to October, obviously, we'll know even more as we go through some of the initial inspections. So this is a learning process.

Speaker 1

We understand what it takes to inspect. We understand what it takes in terms of the inductions and the processes. And unless there is some surprise, I think we We can have this pretty well bounded in terms of what the cost impact is, in terms of what the cash flow impact is. And so by the time we get to Q3 call, Obviously, we'll have a hell of a lot more knowledge than we do sitting here today.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thank you so much for taking the call. So by my calculations, you delivered something like 1600, 1700 GTFs By the middle of 'twenty one. So, how do we get to 1200 engines? I mean, are we sure that's the number?

Speaker 10

Could it be a larger number and is this just related to the PW1000 or does it also impact the V's?

Speaker 3

Yes. So let me start maybe with the second part first, Kai. Our current assessment is that we don't expect the same type of impact on the V2500. It has had an enhanced inspection fleet plan and management plan in place for some time. And as I noted and as Greg noted, we've completed a significant number of those inspections thus far and feel comfortable that this can be managed at this point within the existing shop visit forecast.

Speaker 3

We're going to Greg noted, we're still going through that analysis. It will take us into August to finalize that, but that's our current expectation. Same on the other neo applications. There are different characteristics and attributes on those engines, whether it be stress on the part, whether it be Thrust that we believe differentiates it from the 1100 and such our current assessment is those can be managed within The existing shop visit forecast that we have for 2024. In terms of the population, Kai, you heard Greg Talk about when we bounded the material, the potentially contaminated material, we put in place The enhanced processes for powdered metal at that time and also put in the enhanced Inspection techniques that we've talked about, many of the engines that have come off all the engines that have come off since that time Have gone through this inspection and have been a part of what we would call this better powder processing regime.

Speaker 3

And so ultimately, We will inspect parts when they come in for their normal shop visit down on down the line, guys. As you know, these engines will come back in for shop visits and We will inspect this, among other things, during that time. What we're talking about right now are those that we need to accelerate the shop visit for. Again, that's based on all the variables that we talked about. So, we feel confident that as part of the safety management board that Pratt has that we've got the right population and the right plan in place.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Just one quick follow on. We've Hit on all the negatives, but you just got this announcement of this $2,900,000,000 potential AMRAAM order from Germany. Can you give us some color on your munitions outlook? I mean, in the out years, is that substantially better?

Speaker 1

Yes, Cai, it's nice to talk about something other than GTF. But yes, look, this AMRAAM order is an order that will be For both Germany, really for all of the NATO countries will also benefit Ukraine. And I would tell you that is on top of what we expect to see as a relatively large order for GEM T Missiles associated with the Patriot Air Defense System. We have orders there from Saudi Arabia. We have orders coming from NATO.

Speaker 1

I think in the back half of the year, you're going to see significant and we're planning significant order intake on both Amram and GemT, As well as of course Excalibur, we got this, Neil mentioned, we got the Javelin order, we had the Stinger order already. Those orders will continue to grow. I'll tell you right now, we still have only seen $2,000,000,000 of orders associated specifically with Ukraine replenishment. We think there's probably another $2,500,000,000 coming in the next 12 months associated with just the Ukraine replenishment on top of The GemTs and the GemTs again, they'll go to Germany, they'll go to Poland, they'll go to all 18 of those countries that are currently operating Patriot. So I think that's It's a very positive sign and that's why we're so bullish on the defense outlook for the next couple of years.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 1

Good morning, David.

Speaker 11

Sorry, back To the GTF, sorry. So I just wanted to ask you about how Closely coordinated you are at this point with the regulatory bodies with regard to this. And have they kind of Signed off on your plan or is there any risk here of potentially the population or the timeline of these inspections getting accelerated?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, David. This is Chris. I would say all of this has been very closely coordinated with the FAA. I think you heard me upfront talk about that this will come in the form of a service bulletin that Pratt will publish and then likely an AD that the FAA will distribute.

Speaker 3

But our safety management process, Whether it be through events that happen in the field, things that we find through our continuous surveillance process or recommendations and assessment like this are always very closely coordinated with the FAA. And then of course with the other International regulatory bodies as well. FAA, of course, is where we start, but we, of course, continue to coordinate With the FAA and those other international bodies, but bottom line, very closely coordinated with them.

Speaker 11

Okay. And a quick follow-up, you keep mentioning fallout rate, low fallout rate. I assume that is where you actually have to replace the high pressure What exactly have you assumed in terms of a fallout rate? And I guess given it sounds like the inspection here is pretty involved, how much more involved would it be and costly to be to actually replace the high pressure turbine blades versus Just the inspection or disc, sorry.

Speaker 3

Yes. So you're absolutely right. That's what fall out rate means. Those that we inspect and decide need to be removed and replaced. Again, our experience has been that's been very, very low.

Speaker 3

If we if of course, We had to replace the turbine disk, then we'd factor that into the turnaround time. And that will, of course, potentially Add some time to the process, but as of now, again, David, our assumption and we're continuing So work through that and through the month of August here, but our assumption based on everything that we've seen thus far is that the fallout rate will be very low and that's what's embedded and our assumptions today.

Speaker 1

Yes, David, keep in mind, in order to do the inspection, as Chris said, we literally have to pull the high pressure turbine disc off of the engine And put it through this inspection protocol. Now whether we put that disc back on or a brand new one, it's not a significant impact. And again, with a very, very low expected fallout ratio, I wouldn't of all the things I worry about that would be low I wouldn't of all the things I worry about that would be low on the list. We have plenty of capacity for turbine disc out of Columbus, Especially given what we expect to be a very small number of replacements. So that is, I would say, the most manageable portion of this.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question will come from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Noah.

Speaker 12

On the powder metal, Are you able to bound at this point whether you expect the free cash impact next year to be larger or smaller And this year? And then also following up on the Raytheon Defense margins, can you just spend another minute on The fixed price development programs you're citing, which ones are they? When do they move out of the development phase? And

Speaker 3

how

Speaker 12

do they play into the Multi year margin expansion you're expecting?

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. First of all, on the free cash flow, again, Noah, I hate to keep Saying this, but we really need a little bit more time to put a finer point on our estimates, and we will come back to you on that part as it relates to 'twenty four and beyond. But I think we've talked at length about what the considerations are there, and how we'll be thinking about that and that there is a Possibility that some of these shop visits are already planned and there'll be effects that counterbalance some of this in the out year. So more to come on that front.

Speaker 2

On the defense margins, you'll recall back in Paris, I talked About $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 of headwinds, we expected from the RINS business, and that happened just as we expected as we closed out the quarter. It's literally a few contracts. I'd say most of them are classified, so hard to get into the names. The duration, I'd say the most The period of time that we're looking at probably 18, 24 months before those programs are fully behind us. We're in the test phase.

Speaker 2

We're obviously learning through that phase. But I think we have a little bit longer to go here. I think we've got it calibrated in the second half of our year outlook, but all the right resources are on it. And like I said, absent that, we are seeing productivity turn in the rest of the business. So it really is a focused

Speaker 1

Welcome. Okay. Thanks everybody for listening in. I would just to put all this in perspective, I think you need Keep in mind, we have very strong franchises between Collins, Raytheon and Pratt Whitney and the $185,000,000,000 of backlog. I know this GTF issue, this quality issue is a bit of a surprise.

Speaker 1

We have been working it For the last, I would say, 10 days or so, we will know a lot more in the next 6 weeks. And as the information becomes available, we will of course be sharing it with investors. But again, keep in mind, this is a small piece of what is a great franchise across RTX. Having said that, Jennifer and her team are obviously going to be available the next couple of days to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you all for listening and take care.

Speaker 1

Bye bye.

Operator

This now concludes today's conference. You may now

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Earnings Conference Call
RTX Q2 2023
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