IDT Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 27, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello. I am Ken Shung, the Head of Investor Relations for ASE Technology Holdings. Welcome to our Q2 2023 earnings release. Thank you for attending our conference call today. Please refer to our Safe Harbor notice on Page 2.

Operator

All participants consent to having their voices and questions broadcast via participation in this event. If participants do not consent, please disconnect at this time. I would like to remind everyone that the presentation that follows may contain forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to a high degree of risk, and our actual results may differ materially. For the purposes of this presentation, our dollar figures are generally stated in new Taiwan dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Operator

As a Taiwan based company, our financials are presented in accordance with Taiwan IFRS. Results presented using Taiwan IFRS may differ materially from results using other accounting standards, including those presented by our subsidiary using Chinese GAAP. I am joined today by Joseph Tong, our CFO. For today's session, I will be giving the prepared remarks. Joseph will then be available to take your questions during the Q and A session that follows.

Operator

The following financial references will be referring to the first half of twenty twenty three as compared first half twenty twenty two. The first half of the year has been characterized not just by an unprecedented inventory correction, but also broad ranging declines in electronics demand as consumers catch up on travel and socialization. Issues relating to a slower than expected economy in China exacerbated are ready lackluster electronic spending. The excess inventory environment appears to be stretching out well into the back half of 2023. In this climate, the holding company first half revenues declined 12% year over year, while our ATM and EMS first half revenues declined by 17% 7%, respectively.

Operator

For our ATM business, our automotive related application bucked the trend and grew by 15%. Advanced Packaging revenues declined slightly more than wirebond packaging revenues during the first half of the year, 20% 17% respectively. Our advanced packaging products have more exposure to the more heavily impacted communications segment. Meanwhile, our testing business fared relatively better during the first half declining 10% when compared with last year. This was driven by more stability of our China test business.

Operator

Our EMS business declined 7% in the first half of 2023 when compared with the first half of twenty twenty two. This represents the overall weaker environment during the current year. Holding company first half operating income declined by 53%. ATM first half operating income declined by 57%. As can be seen here, our business is highly dependent upon the leverage generated when equipment utilizations are full and operating efficiency is more optimized.

Operator

For our business, it may appear things seem pretty bad with the overall economic environment and lengthening inventory digestion. But if we see this as the trough of all troughs, ASE appears to be doing okay. Of course, we would like a rapid return health for the entire industry. But as a point of historical comparison, The last major downturns ASC saw were as follows. In 2001, revenues were down 27% year over year with gross margin at 13%.

Operator

In 2,005, business was down 20% with gross margin at 19%. In 2009, business was down 12% with gross margin at 20%. Arguably, The current downturn is more severe in duration and at least equal in terms of correction percentage. And yet our margin structure has held up and we are making more EPS in this downturn during the 2 trough quarters than compared to any of those full years. We believe this downturn is proving that our market position has significantly increased our resiliency and improved our structural business model.

Operator

For the Q2, our ATM business experienced a relatively sluggish environment, but was somewhat better than original expectations due to higher than expected rush orders. Overall demand for services slightly improved off of 1st quarter trough levels. Customer wafer inventories at our facilities appeared to be in the initial stages of decline. However, given the overall tepid market environment, customers are becoming even more conservative on their inventory levels. For our ATM factories during the quarter, key equipment utilization rates were still low, staying near 60%.

Operator

On a more positive note, we are seeing more incremental pickup related to R and D new product introduction work. Our EMS business picked up slightly as anticipated. This is in line with our outlook and in line with our typical seasonality. With that, please turn to Page 3, where you will find our Q2 consolidated results. For the Q2, we recorded fully diluted EPS of $1.76 and basic EPS of $1.80 Consolidated net revenues increased 4% sequentially and declined 15% year over year.

Operator

We had a gross profit of $21,700,000,000 with a gross margin of 16%. Our gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points sequentially and 5.4 percentage points year over year. The sequential improvement of margin is principally due to higher loading in the current quarter. The annual decline in gross margin is principally the result of lower loading during the current downturn. Our operating expenses increased by $700,000,000 sequentially and declined by $1,500,000,000 annually.

Operator

The sequential increase in operating expenses are primarily due to higher R and D expenses at our ATM business and labor related costs as customers are starting to ramp new product introductions. The year over year decline was primarily attributable to lower bonus and profit sharing expenses across the company. Our operating expense percentage increased 0.1 percentage points sequentially and 0.4 percentage points year over year to 9%. The sequential operating expense percentage increase primarily related to higher R and D costs relative to revenues generated. The annual operating expense increase is primarily due to lower overall loading relative to semi fixed operating costs.

Operator

Operating profit was $9,400,000,000 up $1,700,000,000 sequentially and down $11,200,000,000 year over year. Operating margin was 6.9%, improving 1.0 percentage points sequentially and declining 5.9 percentage points year over year. During the quarter, we had a net non operating gain of 0 dollars 7,000,000,000 Our non operating gain for the quarter primarily consists of net foreign exchange hedging activities, profits from associates and other non operating income offset by net interest expense of $1,100,000,000 Tax expense for the quarter was $1,900,000,000 The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.9%. Net income for the quarter was $7,700,000,000 representing an increase of $1,900,000,000 sequentially and a decline of $8,300,000,000 year

Speaker 1

over year.

Operator

The NT dollar depreciated 0.6% against the U. S. Dollar sequentially during the Q2 and 4.5% annually. From a sequential perspective, we estimate the NT dollar depreciation had a 0.16 percentage point positive impact to the company's gross and operating margins. From a year over year perspective, we estimate that the depreciating NT dollar had a 1.28 percentage point positive impact to gross and operating margins.

Operator

As a rule of thumb, For every percent the NT dollar appreciates, we see a corresponding 0.29 percentage point impact to our holding company gross margin. On the bottom of the page, we provide key P and L line items without the inclusion of PPA related expenses. Consolidated gross profit excluding PPA expenses would be $22,700,000,000 with a 16.6% gross margin. Operating profit would be $10,600,000,000 with an operating margin of 7.8%. Net profit would be $8,900,000,000 with a net margin of 6.5%.

Operator

Basic EPS excluding PPA expenses would be $2.07 On Page 4 is a graphical presentation of our consolidated financial performance. You can see the impact of the current weak environment here. It does look like we are looking at the Q1 as the bottom though. On Page 5 is our ATM P and L. It is worth noting here that the ATM revenue reported here contains revenue eliminated at the holding company level related to intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses.

Operator

For the Q2 of 2023, revenues for were $76,100,000,000 up $2,800,000,000 from the previous quarter and down $18,900,000,000 from the same period last year. This represents a 4% improvement sequentially rather than a flat quarter, while on a year over year basis, we declined 20%. Gross profit for our ATM business was $16,200,000,000 up $1,400,000,000 sequentially and $11,600,000,000 year over year. Gross profit margin for our ATM business was 21.2%, up 1.1 percentage points sequentially and down 8 percentage points year over year. The sequential margin improvement is the result of slightly improved loading offset in part by higher utility costs.

Operator

While the annual margin decline is primarily the result of lower loading due to the current downturn. During the Q2, operating expenses were $8,700,000,000 up $400,000,000 sequentially and down $1,100,000,000 year over year. The sequential increase in operating expenses was primarily driven by higher R and D expenses related to higher labor and new product introduction costs. The annual operating expense decline was driven primarily by lower labor costs due to lower profit sharing and bonus accrual. Our operating expense percentage for the quarter was 11.5%, up 0.1 percentage points sequentially and 1.2 percentage points year over year.

Operator

The sequential increase was due to increased R and D expenses, while the annual increase was due to lower loading relative to semi fixed costs. During the Q2, operating profit was $7,400,000,000 representing an increase of $1,000,000,000 quarter over quarter and a decline of $10,600,000,000 year over year. Operating margin was 9.7%, improving 1 percentage point sequentially and declining 9.2 percentage points year over year. For foreign exchange, we estimate that the NT to U. S.

Operator

Dollar exchange rate had a 0.28 percentage point impact on our ATM sequential margins and a 2.21 percentage point impact on a year over year basis. Without the impact of PPA related depreciation and amortization. ATM gross profit margin would be 22.4% and operating profit margin would be 11.2 said. On Page 6, you'll find a graphical representation of our ATM P and L. As can be seen here, current year loading levels are still significantly lower than 2022.

Operator

On Page 7 is our ATM revenue by market segment. It's fairly similar as last quarter. However, Over the course of the last year and a half, our Computing segment does appear to be gradually taking on larger segment share. On Page 8, you will find our ATM revenue by service type. There isn't a significant change here.

Operator

On Page 9, you can see the 2nd quarter results for our EMS business and a graphical representation of its market segment Allocation. As usual, the Q2 is the dull financial quarter during which not much changes from the Q1, but in actuality, our EMS business is in the midst of preparing for its seasonal upcycle. During the Q2, EMS revenues were $60,400,000,000 improving $2,700,000,000 or 5% sequentially and declining $5,800,000,000 or 9% year over year. Sequentially, our EMS businesses Gross margin improved 1.4 percentage points, while our operating margin improved 1.2 percentage points. The margin improvements were driven primarily from favorable foreign exchange impacts to raw materials and overall product mix.

Operator

Our EMS 2nd quarter operating profit was $2,100,000,000 up $800,000,000 sequentially and down $600,000,000 annually. For our EMS market segment, our consumer segment picked up as industrial and automotive segments declined. This was driven by slightly stronger demand in the current quarter related to our consumer SiP product and temporarily weaker demand environment related to industrial products. Our automotive business looks to impacted by End Market Dynamics. On Page 10, you will find key line items from our balance sheet.

Operator

At the end of the quarter, we had cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets of $66,400,000,000 our total interest bearing debt was down $3,200,000,000 to 187,100,000,000 Total unused credit lines amounted to $384,600,000,000 Our EBITDA for the quarter was $25,800,000,000 Net debt to equity was down to 41% at the end of the quarter. We expect our debt position to increase during the Q3 as a result of incremental cash usage to pay our upcoming dividend. On Page 11, you will find our equipment capital expenditures. Machinery and equipment capital expenditures for the Q2 and U. S.

Operator

Dollars totaled $209,000,000 of which $107,000,000 were used in packaging operations, dollars 60,000,000 in test operations, $33,000,000 in EMS Operations and $9,000,000 in interconnect material operations and others. Current quarter EBITDA of US0.8 billion dollars continues to outpace our equipment capital expenditures of $200,000,000 Before we get to our outlook, I would like to spend a bit of time on what we believe drives our business and touch upon the topic of the moment, AI. Our core business is to provide our customers unprecedented scale and repeatability of manufacturing. With such scale, we are able to achieve the lowest manufacturing cost without compromising quality. Interestingly, this improved scale of manufacturing also delivers the highest packaging yield.

Operator

We consider this to be our competitive advantage. I've included a rough and very simplified chart related to our business. The x axis represents the number of package IOs, and the y axis is a smooth exponential scaled estimate of volumes. We've placed some of our offered package types roughly along the x axis. These package types actually overlap much more that what is shown here, but the basic message follows.

Operator

Our business is driven by the center area of the plot where there are mass volumes. The more units we manufacture of a particular package type, the better able we are to ramp up economies of scale and manufacturing efficiency. The right side of this higher IO counts, new package types reach a manufacturing critical mass and start climbing up the curve. This represents when lower volume R and D lines become suitable to be scaled up for high volume mass production. We're starting to see this with some of our fan out based packages.

Operator

For us, Having substantial capabilities and leading edge technologies is necessary as we want to be ahead of the curve quite literally as in this reference to this graph. But the most technologically advanced packages neither drive significant volume nor significant profitability. For the back end, package technology migration matters, but volume fundamentally determines manufacturing efficiency and thus for us profitability. Now to the business of AI. Recently, we have been frequently asked to comment on our view of AI.

Operator

Often, these discussions have centered on products that are very specific to the core enablement of AI training. We understand the excitement and importance of such specific products, which are enabling AI development. However, we believe that zeroing in on a couple of specific tip of the iceberg products tend to be somewhat missing the bigger picture. AI's impact on ASE will be much broader and multifaceted than focusing in on specific leading edge units. We believe AI is substantially a much larger phenomenon.

Operator

We believe AI serves as a catalyst to the next super cycle for the semiconductor industry. At a basic level, AI means more information will be collected, stored and analyzed everywhere and pertaining to anything and everything from AI's edge data collection to the inference of that data represents new volumes all along AI's processing chain. Not only do we see incremental product volumes ahead. Future AI features will require an incremental step up in capabilities, increasing both die and package level requirements. If we try to show this on our chart here, As incremental complexity ramps, higher IO counts push the entire curve to the right.

Operator

As you can see, this step up will also drive adoption at the leading edge of our vertically integrated solutions. In this graph, the line pushes up for volumes and to the right for the technology step up. We also see further opportunities for system level complexities that may force further parallel design versus historical monolithic design tendencies. As overall system architecture must accommodate increasingly power hungry such as AI, we believe it becomes increasingly necessary to solve power issues near or at the package level. These are all frontiers on the heterogeneous integration roadmap.

Operator

AI only serves to add to this need and opportunity for us. The chart here extends once again for the potential proliferation of heterogeneous integration all across are package types. We may see AI as a novelty now, but it will be ubiquitous soon enough. As we come back to look towards the nearer term, we are seeing a ramp in manufacturing for the coming Q3 across our businesses. It's definitely not the pickup of a typical manufacturing year, But given the entire macro climate, including post COVID spending patterns, lackluster China demand and tightening inventory control by our customers.

Operator

It's a decent start. The current year does not look to be The V shaped recovery that the industry was hoping for. It's looking more like a check mark with a return to optimal manufacturing, unfortunately stretching into future quarters. From the cost perspective, the coming quarters' cost environment will be impacted by higher summer consumption and 3 full months of higher summer utility rates. Further, we have a smaller set of products ramping in the Q3 as versus normal.

Operator

Given the selective product mix, we see a temporarily higher raw material content environment for the coming Q3. We would like to summarize our outlook for the Q3 as follows. For our ATM business In AT and T dollar terms, our ATM Q3 2023 revenues should grow quarter over quarter by mid to high single digits. Our ATM Q3 2023 gross margin should improve 75 to 100 basis points versus the Q2 of 20 in Q3. For our EMS business in NT dollar terms, our EMS Q3 2023 revenues should increase 20% quarter over quarter.

Operator

Our EMS Q3 2023 operating margin should be similar with the Q2 of 2023. This concludes our prepared remarks. We would like to start the Q and A here. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Now we would like to open the floor for questions. We have a question from Mr. Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

Speaker 3

Okay. Yes. Thank you. Yes, I'll ask the first question on the sales guidance. For the IC ATM, looks like it's tracking fairly close to TSMC, but leading the Tier 2 foundries.

Speaker 3

Could you discuss a bit more on the split by applications, where you're seeing the incremental growth momentum continuing And if you see that continuing into Q4. And then for EMS, the 20% sequential looks like it's lagging traditional seasonality. Could you talk if it's delayed timing on product ramps, softness in certain applications or just a timing issue that could help shift some of the business out to 4th quarter?

Speaker 4

I think for both ATM as well as EMS, the delayed of the somewhat delayed New product launches does have an impact on the second half performance revenue performance As the we are expecting sequential growth continuing for the second half. Also into 4th quarter, the inventory digestion as well as the weak And market consumption is still continuing. So we are now taking a more conservative I'll look on the second half. And so the what we are showing here is really The forecast with some judgment with the forecast that we got and with our own some of our own judgment to come up with the numbers.

Speaker 3

Okay. For the profitability, you discussed a few impacts on utilities And materials, could you discuss a little more of the mix, what's driving that short term material shift? And with the leverage where it's about it looks like about a point or 2 light of kind of a normal pickup with that type of volume, Are there headwinds from pricing environment? How you're seeing pricing or other factors?

Speaker 4

I think pricing still remains to be resilient at this point. And going into Q3, we do have a higher cost Structure given the fact that the we're in the summertime and we're subject to summer rates for energy And that put us some pressure on our margin expansion. Typically, when we see our overall Utilization goes up and revenue goes up, the margin should expansion should be a bit higher than what we are presenting here. But given the higher energy cost, I think that's putting some pressure on the margin expansion. And also in terms of product mix, I think some of the higher material content products Being put out in this coming two quarters that's also putting some pressure on the material costs of ours and therefore the margin expansion.

Speaker 4

But I think overall, the in terms of material Continental product mix effect was out to improve in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of

Speaker 5

And my first question is on the state of the inventory cycle. Could you give us a little bit more Color on what you're seeing overall on Vifor Bank inventory? How quickly are customers drawing that down? And also, could you give us some more color on the Q3 revenue guidance of Sequential growth, which segments are driving the growth of mid to high single digit? Is there any divergence between what you're seeing on your Communication platform versus automotive, industrial and computing?

Speaker 4

I think the overall pickup in Q3, I think, is across the board and throughout all applications. As we see new products coming out, we see new automotive continue to be up by the spot for us. And the first part of the question? Wafer Bank, I think it's being gradually worked down, but I think the Nowadays, I think the old customers given the soft market condition, I think people are getting more cautious. So the I think the inventory digestion will continue for maybe next 2 quarters or even further quarters into the future.

Speaker 4

But as a whole, I think going into 2024, I think things will start to improve quite a bit, and we are expecting a much more healthier Growth year for us in 2024.

Speaker 5

Got it. My second question is on the AI related demand. Any estimate of Exposure to AI for ASC as of now, I think TSMC talked about roughly 6% of revenue this year. And how are you planning for capacity on AI starting from some of your 2.5e and fan out related products to also, Like Ken mentioned, moving into some of the more mainstream higher volume kind of products as well. How are you thinking about like when do these products start to kind of kick in into your packaging and testing portfolio?

Speaker 4

Well, I think if we are narrowly defining AI today, the associated revenue for us It's roughly at this low single digit of our ATM revenue at this point. But I think more importantly is really given time, AI That will be adopted into all existing and new applications. Therefore, give and tell you what It creates tremendous volume and business opportunities for us, covering all kinds of different shifts that will be coming on stream. As Ken has demonstrated in the chart that we've shown earlier on. In terms of exact timing, I think that's Right now, AI is still at its early stage, and I think it will take some time for us to for this segment to continue to grow, but not particularly just AI itself, But as AI gets immersed into all different application, that's when we will start to see explosive above Volume growth and that will and driving the whole industry into the next super cycle.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Mr. Brett Lin of BofA. Hello, Brett.

Speaker 4

Hello. Hi. Sorry. So thank you for taking my question. So I have a question on advanced packaging.

Speaker 4

So basically, Ken just mentioned that critical mass is quite important for us to ramp up the advanced packaging So are we reaching the so called sweet spot yet or when should we Expect the company to or the industry to reach the sweet spot. And do we have any incremental CapEx plan on it? That's my first question. Thank you. Well, it will definitely go into that stage, and we are preparing ourselves by keeping us At the forefront of the technology development, we will be making the necessary investment as we see fit when the time comes.

Speaker 4

And exactly when it was started to happen, I think it will be a progressive We'll take steps and it will progress very nicely going forward. We do have the capacity in place, meetings different kinds of requirements. But What we're waiting for is for the volume to start to increase and to grow, and we will make our necessary investment accordingly. Got it. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

So also we have learned from UMC's call yesterday about its collaboration with the ASE and some IC design service firms on its so called open ecosystem for Advanced Packaging. So would you please share the pros and cons associated with this open system that ASE and UMC are forming? And also, would you please also provide some insights into the so called optimal collaboration model versus the current dominant closed system by TSMC? Thank you. Well, we're definitely one of the we're definitely The initiator of the collaboration, particularly on the interposer and this is a major component of the overall chip on wafer type of process.

Speaker 4

And So we are collaborating with the foundries to complete the full process for us. And on top of that, we also have our own solution focus that is progressing well. We have very active engagement with a lot of well, quite a few of our customers, and we believe Mass production will start soon going into the later part of the year or maybe early next year.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Mr. Rick Xu of Daiwa.

Speaker 6

Anne, can you guys hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. First question is just a very general housekeeping with your utilization rates across the board of your packaging testing Q2 and Q3.

Speaker 4

Q2, we are roughly at 60% across the board. And going to Q3, 3, given the pickup of business, we believe The average utilization will be hovering around 65%.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thank you. Second question is just a quick follow-up on this open ecosystem, you guys' cooperation with the foundry It's like UMC producing the interposter and you guys are in charge of the back end services Just like COOS and 2.5D and 3 d. My further follow-up is do you guys have any do you happen to have any exposure right now in The core GPU area for the cohorts, any participants in this area for Capitalizing the AI server demand growth?

Speaker 4

Well, right now, the AI related exposure is still low. We have, as I mentioned earlier, on single Low single digit percentage of our overall ATM revenue. Not commenting on the specific products, but we are defining this as our leading edge Packaging Technology that's AI related, I think mostly in the networking, in HPC type of applications. And I think the potential of this business is also Pretty good. I think going next year, we could probably see this part of the or this Particular segment of business should easily double for in next year.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Sunny Lin of UBS.

Speaker 7

Hi, could you hear me okay?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much. Good afternoon. So my first question is a bit longer term. And so obviously, last year's ASE had been outperforming The same industry, probably because of the share gain and customers' supply diversification. And so I wonder now looking ahead, how much of the growth upside you think ASE could continue to realize?

Speaker 7

Meanwhile, China OSAT companies are also expanding overseas. So would that affect ASA's superiority to some extent?

Speaker 4

Well, definitely, we're the clear leader in our space and we'll continue to gain shares Going forward, leveraging on our scale, on our technology competencies, as well as our proximity to the foundries, particularly on these more advanced technology that is coming on stream. Going forward, I think Geographical expansion will continue. That's the really the growing trend as we see demand starting to polarize between China and outside China. On that, we do have very good footprints around the world. We are currently expanding in Malaysia, in Poland, in Korea, in Japan, As we see fit or as required by our customer, when we see business opportunity that we That justifies our expansion.

Speaker 4

We will continue to do so. Well, obviously, the Chinese will do the same, but then given the scale and also the Leadership of ours in all aspects. I think we will continue to out compete our peers wherever they are.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you for the color. I recall previously the company had a growth target to grow About 2 times of the largest semis. Is that still a valid target that we continue that we could continue to anticipate?

Speaker 4

Yes. Well, of course, 2023 is a very different year because we are all going through a very challenging year. But As I mentioned, I think going into 2024, things will start to pick up and we'll go to a much more healthier condition and our target is continue to grow twice the logic semi growth.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Laura Chen of Citigroup.

Speaker 8

Hello. Hi, good afternoon. Can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 8

Yes. Hi. Thank you. My first question is actually about our iCE ATM gross margin outlook. We know that this year we still see the inventory correction continue.

Speaker 8

But previously, we are looking for like 20% to 30% gross margin for IC ATM. So I'm just wondering that it's in at what kind of duration rate We can reach that level. And also considering that we are also doing some advanced packaging For the AI chip. So I'm just wondering that for that kind of business, will that be a margin dilution For the overall ICITM business?

Speaker 4

Right now, the what we call the leading edge Technology or leading edge packaging, I think the overall profitability as well as return is actually above corporate average. And in terms of the structural margin that we mentioned before, I think it takes us To go to a utilization rate of around 70%. Anything below that will be very difficult for us to reach that structural margin.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you. And also on the EMS business, I think just following what Randy, previous also asked about the seasonality into Q3 seems to be minor than historical. So just wondering that Is that just due to the muted demand or we see any significant delay for the new product launch in second half?

Speaker 4

No, I think it's just overall the muted demand that's causing a weaker seasonality seasonal pickup for our EMS business. But typically, If you look at a whole year from a quarter to quarter, typically the Q3 will be the peak quarter. And at this time around, I think not trying to be a spokesman for our customer, I think the market knowledge about some of the Product seems to be launched later than normal, does have some impact on terms of some of the order being pushed back to Q4. So I think this year will be a little bit different from On a quarter to quarter performance perspective.

Speaker 2

Our next question is from Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 9

Hello, can you hear me? Yes. Okay. Let's start with some easy ones. So I think 3 months ago, you talked about like ATM business card declined by High single digit to low teens.

Speaker 9

As we get closer to the yen, can you give us some outlook for the full year for the ADN business?

Speaker 4

I think it's going to be low teens to mid teens.

Speaker 9

Okay. So based on this kind of low teens meetings, we should see what kind of profitability?

Speaker 4

I think it will be sub structural

Speaker 9

margin. I see. Thank you. Then I still go back to the Advanced Packaging business. I do acknowledge that you guys talk about A larger addressable market for the AI potential business.

Speaker 9

But which part of the AI packaging business will have faster growth for ASE? I mean for the real advanced one, for the cobots one or for the peripheral chips, which one will have some higher profitability? And in terms of like cohorts or related packaging business, what's your return a threshold and margin threshold for you to continue to invest a lot more invest more for this business?

Speaker 4

We're now still trying to figure out what kind of return that we can get out of full process of COOS. I think That's depending on a lot of different factors, most importantly, whether we have a stable volume that we're going through, We will have how wide the adoption will be and how many customer will be using that, so we can diversify the risk. And there are a lot of factors that have been considered. I don't think that it's now at a more as matured stage as we So I think the how much or how soon we will start investing into full process of COOS It really depends on the situation that we're looking at. Right now, we do have some Corbus Capacity, but that's to maintain to help us maintain our technology We're part of acquisition.

Speaker 4

But for the I think the real bread and butter for us is really once the AI starts to proliferate into other applications, going into Automotive, communication, computing, all sorts of new applications, that's where we're going to see the Mainstream packages being start to be required for these ships and that's where the volume is. And I think that will be the main investment area that we will be focusing on.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Sihong Ng of China Renaissance.

Speaker 1

Hello, gentlemen. Two questions. First one regarding this year's CapEx budget. Can you provide us an update and in What areas we are spending on Cataspe to spend money?

Speaker 4

I think the CapEx for equipment, Our guidance remains the same as 3 months ago. In terms of its breakdown, I think roughly 55%, 56% will be for assembly and the bulk of it is for this packaging And roughly 25% for test and then 15% or so for EMS and then another 3 for material.

Speaker 1

I see. All right. And then going forward in the next couple of years, should we expect the CapEx intensity Q2 rise because of our more involvement in the advanced packaging area?

Speaker 4

Yes, really again, it really depends on where the volume is and where we should be investing. But all in all, I think given the fact that this year we have been fairly cautious and conservative about our CapEx And we are expecting growth to start resume next year. I believe the capital investment or CapEx for next year will be somewhat higher.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of JPMorgan.

Speaker 5

Okay. My question is that we are seeing a lot of capacity expansion on the front end Happening in China, especially for older technologies. What do you envisage For ASC, do you think that you will also you will kind of miss out on that potential packaging demand Given you have lesser exposure in China today, and is that potentially a competitive threat down the line, Given that we are seeing some of that competitive threat emerge for the foundry side at this point in time, how do you see this evolve? Because we had a view Maybe about a year back that the market is kind of becoming a little bit more divergent between China and non China.

Operator

You

Speaker 5

still think that's the case? Or you think some of the given that there is a lot of capacity getting built in China, even some of the non China fabless companies will eventually go back find their way back to the China capacity to leverage the lower pricing?

Speaker 4

Well, I think the demand is Diverse at this point. And but that also creates A lot of requirement in China for localization. And so we are seeing that. And we do have our aside from selling our 4 factories 2 years ago, we Still remain to have a very sizable operation in Suzhou, which can accommodate Whatever the opportunity there is and plus the Suzhou factory that we have is of more advanced technology and more higher yield and efficiency. So I think It's a very, very competitive operation of ours in China to address the local demand.

Speaker 4

We are also seeing that a lot of investment being put in China is for the mainstream Technology type of products. And so we do Feel that there is a fairly good potential in that area as well. So I don't know if you all are aware that we are investing into The combination of our how should I put this? We are putting back some of our investment into the 4 factories that we sold. And that 4 factories is now combining with another entity today.

Speaker 4

So we are Taking a 2 pronged approach, one is using our own facility, leveraging our own facility to capture some of the opportunity For the more advanced type of demand and also some minority interest In the 4 factories that we sold and continue to benefit Well, to share some of the prospects in the mainstream or the legacy kind of demand in China, which has a fairly good potential at this point.

Speaker 5

Got it. And just a further question on the AI related demand. For the Cohost like technologies, What portion of the demand does ASC expect to kind of fulfill next St. R, do you expect to I think TSMC talked about do expansion of their own capacity and they probably account for the vast majority of the Capacity right now, but what percentage of like roughly how much of that demand does ASC expect to satisfy once you start bringing some of your capacity online next year?

Speaker 4

I think, By and large, I think most of the demand will still have to be satisfied by the foundry itself because This type of technology or process is mostly wafer process and I think they should be taking the leading role on this. And Neil, but as we've been saying all along, as time goes by, as the technology becomes more mature, The adoption becomes wider and there are multi customer using that and volume becomes more stable and Much bigger in size. There will be a natural division of works between us and the foundry. And without specifying what kind of share we will be having, I think that is the going trend. It really depends on how much demand there is and What's the suitable working model between us and the foundry to share the work and to satisfy the demand.

Speaker 2

Next question is from Mr. Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 9

Can I know what's the CapEx For the second half and what's the capacity allocation for 2.5D packaging in second half?

Speaker 4

I think for second half, Overall, CapEx will be in the range of $580,000,000 to $600,000,000

Speaker 9

For 2 quarters?

Speaker 4

For 2 quarters, yes. No, no, no, for the second half.

Speaker 9

And the location?

Speaker 4

We're not commenting on the 2.5% decapex at this point.

Speaker 9

So what's the threshold for you to invest more in the 2.5 Like I

Speaker 4

said, the business has to justify the investment. So economically

Speaker 9

What is the threshold?

Speaker 4

What is the threshold? Well, in terms of margin, in terms of The lifespan in terms of the return, it has to be above the corporate average.

Speaker 9

But it looks like the revenue is going out like in a meaningful way, believe it or not, but That's the current outlook for all the supply chain. Yes. It seems to me that you're not aggressive in terms of investing in this business.

Speaker 4

Like I said, we are not focusing and we should not be focusing on This so called AI chips as narrowly defined, which maybe includes CPU, GPU or AI Accelerators, I think that's really just the catalyst of our business expansion going forward. So that's really not The part that we should be focusing our investment in, once it gets to Once it gets to proliferate into other applications and volume be created For the mainstream packaging and test, that's really when we start to invest In a major way. So I don't think it's wise to just focusing On the COOS or 2.5D specifically, because that's we will be missing out the whole the full picture here.

Speaker 9

Okay. Got it. Very clear. And one more question. So what's the what do you think about the seasoned level testing business?

Speaker 9

What's the revenue contribution from SLP for you? And is that a growing business? Is that a profitability business? Is that high ROE business for you in the future?

Speaker 4

Well, we do have system level test and He's making down reasonable return. Just like every other businesses, as we see, there is real business potential. There is enough return for us to make and then we'll make the necessary investment.

Speaker 2

There is no more question.

Speaker 4

More or no? No more. Okay. Okay. Thank you, everybody.

Speaker 4

And hopefully, we've we'll clear some of the concerns or questions you may or may not have. And we I think we had a decent second quarter and we're going to have a decent second half to look after as well. So thank you very much. We will be seeing you next quarter.

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Earnings Conference Call
IDT Q2 2023
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