T-Mobile US Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 27, 2023

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Following opening remarks, the earnings call will be open for questions via the conference line by pressing 1 followed by 4 and via Twitter by sending a tweet to T Mobile IR or Mike Sievert using TMUS. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Judd Henry, Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations for T Mobile US. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Welcome to T Mobile's 2nd quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Mike Sievert, our President and CEO Peter Oswaldic, our CFO as well as other members of the senior leadership team. During this call, we will make forward looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our forward looking statements. We provide a comprehensive list of risk factors in our SEC filings, discussed on this call can be found in the Quarterly Results section of the Investor Relations website. With that, let me turn it over to Mike.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Jed. Hi, everybody. Welcome to the call. As you can see, we're here with several members of our senior management team.

Speaker 2

We're coming to you live from Bellevue, Washington, and we're ready to take your questions. But first, let me share just a few comments. If you'll recall, At our Analyst Day in early 2021, we shared our strategy to build the best network, couple it with a leading uncarrier value proposition and customer and grow our share in areas where T Mobile was massively underpenetrated relative to our peers. That strategy and our approach has remained remarkably consistent, and our Q2 results continue to show that it's working Better than ever. In fact, T Mobile delivered our highest q2 postpaid phone net adds in 8 Years fueled by both industry leading gross adds and the lowest postpaid phone churn in company history.

Speaker 2

And importantly, we did this while industry growth normalized, proving that the growth opportunities and durable advantages we've been sharing with you really are unique to T Mobile. We also told you that if we delivered the best product and the best value and the best For the first time in our history, T Mobile reported the lowest postpaid phone churn in the industry. That is a remarkable statement, and it's a testament to the work our team has done to build the best network and to further our value proposition to deliver Even better experiences to customers. Now I'm sure there's still going to be some back and forth between us and the other guys before we consistently Put them in the rearview mirror for good on churn, but all the same, it is great to get this first win. We also continue to run the business in a smart and sustainable manner, Translating our industry leading customer growth in Q2 into industry leading service revenue growth and core adjusted EBITDA growth, led us to raise guidance for the year again.

Speaker 2

And we're fortunate to deliver these industry leading results Within the context of a vibrant wireless industry with growing industry service revenues and industry cash flows We not only defended but extended our leadership in both overall and 5 gs performance with the latest third party reports showing that T Mobile's lead is widening. Looking at Ookla data, T Mobile once again swept every category for overall network performance with median Download speeds more than double our closest competitor. We've long talked about how our dedicated 5 gs spectrum assets with superior propagation would result in a demonstrable advantage in customers' everyday lived experiences, even as the competitors try to catch us. T Mobile's head start, our dedicated 5 gs spectrum assets, and our technology leadership are the things that allow us to stay meaningfully ahead, as in like 2 years or more ahead in 5 gs reach and overall network performance, and to stay ahead for years to come. And the most exciting part is that many prospective customers are only just beginning to notice, which means lots of the benefit from this is in front of us.

Speaker 2

And importantly, these things also allow it to do it all With the best capital efficiency in the industry. Now we also continue to build on our fame for providing the best value. Our latest on carrier move, Phone Freedom, frees customers locked up into those 3 year contracts at the carriers, and our new go 5 gs plus rate plan Delivers the best value in wireless. The response from customers has been really amazing. In fact, go 5 gs plus Instantly became our most popular plan.

Speaker 2

And we're seeing improved porting ratios against every competitor, Since we launched phone Freedom, including in July, as more and more customers learn that they can break free from those 3 year contracts, come to a better network, and get a better value at T Mobile. All of these catalysts, coupled with our unique growth opportunities in underpenetrated markets, are what enable a differentiated and profitable growth strategy that separates us from the competition, and you're seeing it again in these Q2 results. We added 299,000 postpaid account net adds, the highest reported in the industry, showing that we continue to win the switching decisions This included postpaid phone net adds of 760,000, our highest q2 in 8 at just 0.77%. In T Mobile for Business, we had a record quarter With best ever phone net adds and our lowest ever phone churn. Enterprise and government customers buy based on their own rigorous testing of the networks, Not just price, and our network leadership, innovative solutions and customer experiences are driving major wins and fueling our momentum in these segments.

Speaker 2

We're attracting profitable customers with CLVs in the 100 of dollars each and still growing. To increasingly recognize that T Mobile offers the best combination of network coverage and capacity to meet their needs. We saw our share of switchers In the top 100 markets, increase both sequentially and year over year. In smaller markets in rural areas, Where we continue to be to bring the first and in many places only 5 gs network, we're seeing an incredible response. We're capturing a win share of switchers in these areas in the upper thirties, which shows we're not only on track to meet our goal of 20% share in 2025, But it gives us confidence we have room to run-in the years beyond.

Speaker 2

In addition to mobile wireless, every quarter since we launched over 2 years ago as demand for the product just continues to grow. And we saw sequential improvement in churn again this quarter and Net promoter scores that remain multiples higher than cable, demonstrating how our high speed Internet resonates with and satisfies an important target audience within this larger broadband market. We also celebrated another major milestone in our Sprint Merger integration as we are now substantially complete with both the billing migration and retail rationalization well ahead of our year end target. At every step of our integration journey, the customer has been our primary focus.

Speaker 3

As you

Speaker 2

know, this has allowed us to Not only unlock synergies bigger and faster than expected, but also to deliver industry leading growth and record low churn at the same time. 3 with great momentum. Our postpaid phone net adds year to date are right on track with last year, which was a growth record year for us. We continue to extend our durable network and value leadership over the competition, which fuels our growth opportunities. And our profitable growth strategy continues to translate into the highest core adjusted EBITDA growth and year to date cash flow conversion in the industry.

Speaker 2

Listen, in our industry, change is a constant, but our team navigates it definitely with the customer as our North Star. And because of that, There has never been a more exciting time to be at T Mobile. Okay. Peter, over to you to talk about our key financial highlights and an update on our guidance 2023.

Speaker 4

Absolutely. Thanks, Mike. Q2 was another quarter of best in class profitable growth, which underpins the updated guidance that I'll share with you in a moment. It starts with the best postpaid service revenue growth in the industry, up over 5% year over year, driven by continued increases in both postpaid accounts and postpaid ARPA. Our disciplined focus points year over year.

Speaker 4

In addition, free cash flow was up 64% year over year and with the highest free cash flow to service revenue margin relative to our peers year to date. We expect this to be a durable and differentiated unlock of shareholder value going forward. This strong financial performance also supported our share buybacks as we repurchased 25,200,000 shares for $3,500,000,000 in Q2 with a cumulative total of 83,500,000 shares repurchased for $11,800,000,000 as of July 21. All right. Let's jump into the details of our increased guidance for 2023.

Speaker 4

We now expect total postpaid net customer additions to be between 5 point $5,900,000 up $250,000 at the midpoint, reflecting growth across all of our market opportunities. Net adds and still increase our core adjusted EBITDA expectation, which we now expect to be between 28.9 $29,200,000,000 This is up 10% year over year at the midpoint based on higher service revenues and merger synergies and excludes leasing revenues of approximately $300,000,000 as we transition substantially all remaining customers off device leasing by year end. Our merger synergies are expected to be approximately $7,500,000,000 in 2023, achieving the full run rate synergy target provided at our Analyst Day A year ahead of schedule as we build towards the full run rate synergies of $8,000,000,000 in 2024. We continue to expect merger related costs, which are not included in adjusted or core adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $1,000,000,000 before taxes. And we now expect cash merger related costs of $1,600,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 for 2023 as they have underrun the P and L recognition to date.

Speaker 4

Net cash provided by operating activities, which include payments for merger related costs, is now expected to be in the range of $18,000,000,000 to $18,300,000,000 And we now expect cash CapEx to be between $9,500,000,000 $9,700,000,000 delivering a capital efficiency unmatched in our industry, unlocked by our network leadership. We expect CapEx to taper in Q3 and then further in Q4. The slightly higher operating cash flows fund the increased CapEx resulting in strong free cash flow of $13,200,000,000 to $13,600,000,000 which includes payments for merger related costs. This is up approximately 75% over last year, thanks to our margin expansion and capital efficiency and does not assume any material net cash inflows from securitization. This also represents a free cash flow to service revenue margin, which is multiple percentage points higher than peers with further expansion expected next year.

Speaker 4

We continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% 26%. And finally, We now expect full year postpaid ARPA to increase slightly more than the 1% we have previously guided for 2023 Before I wrap up, I want to remind folks that we closed the sale of our wireline assets to Cogent on May 1, which had a partial impact on our results in Q2, and we expect the full run rate impact beginning in Q3 as I laid out last quarter. In closing, we continue to extend our network leadership and further scale our differentiated profitable growth opportunities to deliver the highest free cash flow conversion in the industry and unlock shareholder value. And with that, I will now turn the call back to Jud to begin the Q and A. Jud?

Speaker 1

All right. Let's get to your questions. We'll start with a question on the phone. Operator, first question please.

Operator

Certainly, thank you. That will come from the line of Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hi, Brett.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking the question and it was great to see the strong cash flow in the quarter. In light of that, we've got a few questions around why you decided to downtick a little bit on the buyback. And I guess maybe the higher level question we're getting now that you're much further into the program, how do you think about managing that program going forward? I mean cash flow is obviously an input. You're going to be making some payments for C band spectrum this year.

Speaker 5

So what's the right way for investors to kind of frame their expectations around how you're going to manage that on a go forward basis? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sounds great. Thanks, Brett. I'll start and then maybe hand it to Peter for some comments. The way I think about it is we're buying at a pace through mostly through, predesigned 10b5-1 programs in order to be able to meet the authorization during the So if you recall, the initial authorization of this program is a $14,000,000,000 program that takes us through September. And if you look at some of our activity early in the year where we were able to grab some additional run rate, Now the remaining funds relative to the remaining time suggests a run rate where we have it.

Speaker 2

So it's not really a downtick so much as just kind of a programmatic view. And then, and maybe Peter can pile in on the second part. The way we think about it broadly is that there's essentially been no underlying change to the thesis we've been communicating all along. Now our board hasn't made a determination yet Which, as you mentioned in the premise of your question, is right on track. We're guiding to 75% year over year cash flow growth this year.

Speaker 2

And the underpinnings of the growth in the business, as you saw from our fantastic Q2 momentum, suggest another good year in 'twenty four. And so As the cash flow develops, that's what gives us the confidence that that original thesis of around $60,000,000,000 through 2025 is intact. But maybe you can also comment, Peter, on kind of how we think about this from a, dedication of resources to this versus spectrum and other things

Speaker 4

as Brett. Yes, absolutely, Brett. Yes, one of the things that we had underpinned at Analyst Day is that it's about up to $65,000,000,000 of free cash flow that's Support this $60,000,000,000 of potential shareholder remuneration. And within that, we had some room and had reserved some capacity So when we continue to say we have optimism around the program in totality, C band is fully contemplated within that.

Speaker 6

That's great color. If I could ask

Speaker 5

a quick follow-up question since we're talking about overall liquidity. Any update on the spectrum option that DISH holds? And if that were to get exercised, how do you think about putting that proceeds to work? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Well, the first thing I would point out is that any proceeds from that have not been contemplated in the long range cash planning, that so if there's cash that comes from that soon, that'd be incremental to the planning expectations. We're still awaiting DISH's decision. So just as an update, and I think our filings made some of this clear, the deadline has come and gone for them to determine whether or not they would exercise They're privileged to buy that spectrum for $3,600,000,000 but they asked for some additional time of the DOJ, and we did not object to that. And so We have committed that we would not, terminate their agreement and right to do that at any time before August 11th.

Speaker 2

But in fact, we're in discussions with DISH about whether or not there might be a win win that's different from their initial privilege. And if there is, That'd be wonderful. But obviously, that deadline is coming. So but our view was it was worth taking the extra time, especially since they

Speaker 1

Operator, next question please.

Operator

Thank you. That will come from the line of Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson.

Speaker 6

Hi, thank you. Two questions. 1, as long as we're on the topic of DISH. Outside of the 800, if The opportunity came up. Would you have an appetite for more mid band spectrum, either from DISH or perhaps any other source.

Speaker 6

And we're talking about sort of meaningful sized chunks here. And then 2nd, if you could just talk about the pacing and trajectory of fixed wireless as you now with a little Experience under your belts as you look out toward your long term guidance. How do you think about the pacing to get to 8,000,000 or so households?

Speaker 2

Sounds great. Well, I'll tackle the first one and then maybe hand to Mike Katz for the second one. And I don't mean to be flipped, Craig, but I think you, you know, you've been following us for so long. You know, we've never met Spectrum we didn't like. And, so of course.

Speaker 2

And But one thing that distinguishes us from other providers is that when we get on our hands on spectrum, we put it to work, right away for the benefit of the American consumer. And so that's not only in the public interest, but that's in the interest of T Mobile and our customers. And so Yes, you see that in how we're deploying so ambitiously, the 2.5 gigahertz that are the proceeds of the merger, having built the best 5 gs network in history on that Spectrum acquisition that came through the merger. So, look, I mean, you know, we're always on the hunt for other ways to add capacity to our network because it allows us to do amazing things like not only continue to take share and grow and meet ever rising needs of customers on their smartphones, but also to get after the subject of your second question, which is fixed wireless access. And to the first part of your second question, Nothing has changed in our aspiration.

Speaker 2

We're still on the hunt for that single digit penetration. And maybe Mike could comment about what we're seeing in the marketplace and the rate and pace Our growth versus our expectations.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thanks, Mike, and thanks, Greg, for the question. We couldn't be happier with what's going on with this HSI business. You probably saw from of our results, we just crossed over 3,700,000 customers in this business. And this pacing that we're on, which we told you last quarter and the quarter before, of right around where we were in Q2, right around 500,000 customers, we it gives us confidence that the 7,000,000 to 8,000,000 total customers that we committed to at the end Planning period that we've got high confidence that we're going to get there.

Speaker 7

One of the things that Mike mentioned in his comments that I think is worth reiterating is we saw in Q2, Again, our highest gross adds, and our gross adds have increased every single quarter since we launched this product. And then again in Q2, we saw sequential decrease And I think that really speaks to the fact that this is a great product. It's a great product that customers are really, really loving. And you see that both in this sequential churn decrease but also just in the overall NPS scores, which continue to be the highest amongst any broadband category in So we're really thrilled with where we are with this product.

Speaker 2

Back to my comments upfront, I said things have been remarkably Consistent with what we rolled out to you at our Analyst Day in 'twenty one. This is one of those things. You know, we said we saw a potential here of 7 to 8000000 subscribers Based on the excess capacity profile of our built mobile network, that means it's not capital burdened. And because of that, we can make profit there. And so it plays a role.

Speaker 2

It's a single digit penetration role, and we're on our way to going and seizing it, for the benefit of our shareholders and our customers, and it's right on track.

Operator

That will come from the line of Jonathan Chaplin with New Street Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much. I wonder if you can give us context on a couple of things. So firstly, How are you thinking about the evolution of upgrades in the second half of the year as we go through a new iPhone cycle? And kind of what have you factored into your guidance on EBITDA for that. It looks like upgrades to the industry have been coming in sort of lower than expected, much lower than historical trends.

Speaker 8

I'm wondering how that shifts in the second half of the year. And then wondering if you can give us a little bit more context on fixed wireless You mentioned that it come down sequentially, which isn't surprising and that it's always low in the broadband market in the second quarter. But what does it look like on a year over year basis? Maybe you can give us some context around the kind of levels that it's at for the mature portion of the base that's been with you maybe for a year or more.

Speaker 2

Yes, Jonathan, you're spot on in the premise of question that looking at the aging of the base is the way to get at it. We'll come to Mike on that in a minute. But first, on upgrades, historically low upgrades, Peter, what's contemplated for the rest of the year and maybe a little commentary on why do we think we're seeing that?

Speaker 4

Yes. Well, let me start with why do we think we're seeing that. And fundamentally, We believe we're meeting customers' needs and desires. And if you look at what we've talked about from a network perspective and a value perspective, it makes a lot of sense. You come on to this network And you have a 5 gs device.

Speaker 4

Remember, about 2 thirds of our postpaid base already has a 5 gs device. And they get experience on this network That is just phenomenal in the broadest sense of the word much more than the competitive sense can bring. And we think we're just meeting their natural demand. Customers are Happy with their devices. They're happy with their devices from a longer perspective.

Speaker 4

Remember, we continue to have 2 year financing constructs, so they have the ability to upgrade earlier than the competition. One of the unlocks of phone freedom that we put out there that led to the port ratio changes. So fundamentally, we think we're exactly meeting what customers need. In regards to the second half, the second half always tends to have slightly higher upgrade rates. And you mentioned that you have a new product introduction from Apple, You tend to have promotional constructs and a little bit higher switching in the second half and we're typically the beneficiary of that.

Speaker 4

We also obviously make very, very solid offers to our base from an upgrade perspective. So we do have higher upgrade rates contemplated than what we saw in Q2, but we don't specifically guide to those other than directionally.

Speaker 2

Okay. And Mike, over to you on a little bit more color on High speed Internet churn.

Speaker 7

Yes. I mean, I think building on what you're saying, Mike, what we have the youngest base of broadband customers in America. And Like I think we said in a couple of calls, the churn curves that we see for customers, like in our mobile business, tends to be higher in the earlier 10 year months and then reduces as customers achieve greater tenure lengths with us. And we're seeing the exact same thing in our broadband business. And customers that have been with us for some months.

Speaker 7

Their churn has decreased to the point that was right where we expected it. So it's looking right on where our plan was and the behavior has been just right on right in line with what we expected.

Speaker 2

Okay, terrific. And Maybe Judd, tell us when it's time to go to Twitter so that we're not ignoring the people coming in on Twitter because we always do some of that as well. And while you're thinking about it, we'll go, operator, to one more

Operator

That will come from the line of John Hodulik with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks guys. Two questions if I could. First on margins, obviously a lot of progress there at 300 basis points, but you guys still trail AT and T and Verizon by about 500 basis points. And do you see that closing over time?

Speaker 9

Or is it really just a bunch of the sort of lower ARPU and faster sub growth? That's number 1. And number 2, Mike, I think you said that your porting versus cable has improved. And I don't think you've called that out before. Maybe just some commentary about what you're seeing in terms of competition in wireless and cable.

Speaker 9

I mean, they're talking about sort of more and more bundled offerings. And I guess Comcast was sort of flattish on a year over year basis, but just what the posture is there and what's driving that improvement in importing from Cable? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay. I'll take that one, but Peter, we'll start with you.

Speaker 4

Yes. Certainly, on the margin question, it's a lot more than an ARPU differential. It's really some structural differences that we always call out. For example, the whole leased versus owned backhaul strategy. The other thing they always notice that with this significant higher switching that we see in the net ad production that we're giving.

Speaker 4

Obviously, we have more S in SG and A than the competition does. We have a very dense network built out. So there's fundamental some structural differences that also mean there's a CapEx, OpEx differential and when you compare Free cash flow is the value generation engine that allows you to further invest, return capital to shareholders or do all sorts of other things to And that is the measure by which we're really comparing ourselves to the competition to get rid of all the structural noise. And on that regard, you heard what we announced today already there from a year to date basis in terms of beating them on the conversion ratio with next year Anticipated to expand that ratio further. So that's how I think about margins.

Speaker 2

It's interesting that when you listen to Peter that and you hear that Even with our superior growth and our lower prices, both of which hit margins, we have the superior cash production service revenue dollar in the industry year to date. And that's rapidly expanding, 75% year over year guide this year on our way to higher cash flows next year. And so Okay, great. The second one was oh, second one was cable. So, John, let me come back to that.

Speaker 2

Yes. We did make a very light comment on it, but it was light that we had been seeing improvements in our port ratios with So we kind of double clicked into that because you kind of have to do that as a competitor to figure out, is this going to come from us or what's going on? And it's kind of interesting you fast forward to this quarter. And I'll remind you that even in a world where cable is now a pretty big Sharetaker in overall postpaid, T Mobile produced the highest postpaid phone net additions for a Q2 in 8 years and not only the lowest churn ever in our history but the lowest in the industry. And that kind of answers a question as to whether or not This dynamic from cable is coming from our side, right?

Speaker 2

I mean, we're performing better than before they were in the industry. But obviously, there's a dynamic that affects others, both of our 2 look alike competitors plus prepaid. There's a lot of brands that have been affected by this, and they're viable competitors to be taken seriously. Okay. Jud, who do we what do we have coming in online?

Speaker 1

We've got a question from Rod Retner on how strong was the business growth this maybe we can tee that one up and then we've got a follow on question around enterprise sector as well, so we can hit those.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. So Roger Entner asked how strong was business growth this quarter? Can you talk about the VA? And any additional color on overall business growth? We also have Chetan Sharma coming in.

Speaker 2

Congrats on another great quarter. Thank you. I was wondering if you could provide some color on traction you're seeing in the enterprise sector beyond connectivity. What about vertical industries, So maybe, Kalle, why don't you start on both of those and anybody else can jump in.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks, Mike. And thanks, Roger and Chetan, for the questions. As Mike mentioned earlier, we delivered on our highest phone net adds and lowest phone churn Ever. Handily being Verizon again.

Speaker 10

And we're seeing profitable growth in all three segments. In S and B, we achieved positive port trends against AT and T and this makes 5 consecutive quarters against Verizon and we grew ARPU quarter over quarter again. As Mike mentioned in his opening remarks, In enterprise and in government, our business is good business with very profitable CLVs, roughly 60% to 70% relative to consumer, And they're rising year over year, quarter over quarter. And in Q2 for Enterprise, for instance, we welcomed both The largest global asset management firm and yet another leading global bank as new accounts. We also landed 2 Huge government contracts with the EPA and the IRS and continue to double our net adds quarter over quarter with first responders, Most significantly, in rural areas where an older LTE network just doesn't cut it for critical response.

Speaker 10

So a lot of really good growth this quarter from an incredible team in the business group. And then for the VA question, if I could Take that one for a second. I wanted to say, as you may remember, we took Verizon share back in 2018. And now, because of our network, we've taken the poll position and have added roughly 20,000 phones year to date, Supporting more than 50% of the VA phones today. And I'll note too, our contract also includes T Mobile's 5 gs Internet for the VA's community based outpatient clinics.

Speaker 10

So we're able to provide healthcare for veterans in rural areas because of the network that we have built. So just wanted to add some clarity on the BA subject. And then one last thing on use cases for 5 gs applications outside of pure connectivity. I'll start, Chetan, with some of the verticals where we're seeing the most traction, and that would be in retail where we see many use cases For fixed 5 gs solutions where people are looking to look at better costs and less Truck rolls and support for perhaps older wireline services and are replacing that with T Mobile's 5 gs in multiunit national retailers. And then in health care, it's another area where we're seeing CTOs and CIOs from large hospitals come to us and say, look, we need ubiquitous connectivity, both indoor and outdoor.

Speaker 10

We need more of a programmable network. We need Certain places in our buildings where we want to designate private networks and because of our public 5 gs network and the solutions that we can offer with our stand alone core, we're able to offer Hybrid solution that's really working in a place like a hospital that has lots of different variation to the types of connectivity they need. And then lastly, I'll say we're seeing some traction in education. Large campuses that want to provide connectivity for their students, but also ways to use their data differently and to get in all of the Dorms and places in the campus and rooms and libraries and perhaps older buildings, where there's really a need for ubiquitous Coverage throughout the campus. Those are the 3 hours that really pop out to me.

Speaker 10

The last one I would say is in the federal use cases with the Department of Defense, where not a surprise to anyone, lots of areas for us to begin to deploy Hybrid networks and private networks for use cases specific to the military.

Speaker 2

Well, hopefully, that answers it and more. I mean, if you Listen to Cali. It just reinforces what I said in my upfront remarks, which is some of the biggest and most sophisticated and profitable customers are choosing T Mobile because of the sophistication of our advanced network capabilities and our ability to translate that into solutions for their business. And That's just so different from where we were a few years ago. It's a complete 180, and it's fueling momentum, in fact, all time record results in our business group.

Speaker 2

So hopefully that answers Terrific. Should we go back to the phones?

Speaker 1

Let's do it. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Thank you. That will come from the line of Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.

Speaker 11

Hey, Phil.

Operator

Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hi, guys. Thank you. Hi, Mike. The wireless industry is still running maybe hotter than many expected at the beginning of the year. Certainly, your momentum is strong.

Speaker 3

Are you seeing improving porting ratios versus other MNOs and maybe the MVNOs? Or do you think there's a growing mix of customers who are coming in without a phone history or a number? And then second, if I can, CapEx, Mike, you talked about tapering in the second half. Does that jumping off rate in the 4th quarter indicate a much lower 24 CapEx level? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. I'm going to let Peter answer the second CapEx question. The first one is really interesting. The answer to the question is yes and yes. Both are true.

Speaker 2

So yes, our port ratios are improving each and every month since we launched Phone Freedom against each and every competitor, including cable overall and cable individually. And that's a really interesting fact that it shows that Not only are people starting to discover our network advantages, which has sort of been a slow improvement over the last year and a half, but We have really sparked intrigue with consumers around this idea that we can free them from being trapped with the other guys. And cable in some ways actually is helpful in that In a dynamic competitive industry, more people are jump balls and more people are saying, should I be with 1 of those 2 look alike, you know, kind of old line providers or should I be with somebody new? And when they get asked that question, they aren't picking cable by and large, they're picking T Mobile. As you saw, We had the industry leading postpaid phone net additions.

Speaker 2

Now what is happening is cable is growing very rapidly and faster than I think a lot of people expected. But specifically to your premise of your question, our port ratios with cable have been improving year over year for 9 quarters in a row. And what you see is that the, big step forward they started to take in Q4, according to our analysis, about 80% of the year over year increment in their performance from the same periods year ago, Q4, Q1 and Q2, is from non ports. So they're actually not growing the porting side of their business at the same rate as the not porting side of their business, instead kind of printing postpaid ads. They might be coming over from prepaid.

Speaker 2

They might be just simply net new. They might be kind of dropped in the bag. I don't really know. There's probably several different factors to it. And we just we don't know quite how to unpack it because we don't have all the information.

Speaker 2

I mean, we double click into things, like Verizon's Wholesale revenue and note that it's not growing. That's sort of an interesting diagnostic for us that helps us understand what might be happening. So, anyway, hopefully that helps it. Our industry leading account growth of 299,000 shows that T Mobile is winning the switching decisions, in high quality prime paying families, the kind everybody is going for.

Speaker 4

Yes. And on CapEx, Phil, the way I think about next year, although we're not specifically guiding, is we're still comfortable in the 9% to 10% range that we gave out. Remember, I wouldn't take Q4 as a jumping off point because really the way Alf and team have built this is a very lean manufacturing approach to the build, One of the secrets to our capital efficiency there. And so it isn't that I take a run rate and an exit run rate and project But $9,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 feels about right for next year at this point in time.

Speaker 2

And speaking of a lean network performance machine, I think it would be a good Time to just stop and take note of what's been delivered with this incredibly capital efficient profile that you're asking about. Ulf and team, you guys deserve incredible credit. We've now reached 285,000,000 people with Ultra capacity 5 gs. This is something that neither of our competitors, principal competitors, have promised to ever do, certainly not in the next 2 years. And so we've been talking about this idea of being 2 or more years ahead in the 5 gs race, but if anything, It's expanding.

Speaker 2

Maybe you could share a few of the statistics of kind of where we are and also a little shadowing of where we're going.

Speaker 12

Well, thanks, Mike. And yes, the last quarter, we We pulled ahead in our leadership and 285 mid band POPs, we're heading towards 300 by the End of this year, we have to remember that we reached 200 mid band POPs 2 years ago in 2021. On our low band, we reached 302 years ago, where others are now pulling into the station. It gets harder and harder with the POPs as you grow through. Every 100,000,000 POPs takes about 3x the efforts in terms of upgrading and building new towers to be able to deliver the same POP growth.

Speaker 12

So This network is just fantastic, and we are so proud of it, and we're proud to support also what Kalle commented on early, Inside the enterprise space, which is a dream for Olaverban who has followed the 5 gs for many, many years. On top of that, we have lots of room to move ahead. We have today 2 55 megahertz of spectrum that is dedicated to 5 gs on our mid band. And you have to remember that our low band is all dedicated to 5 gs. When others are talking about their coverage, they're sharing this Between LTE and 5 gs, and we're not.

Speaker 12

We're dedicating spectrum. The mid band megahertz will grow to 200 megahertz dedicated 5 gs by the end of the year by migrating more LTE spectrum over to 5 gs. And then we haven't even started on what we can use We can use our 108 auction results, which is enhancing our 2.5 capabilities even more, and we have yet to refarm for example, on AWS as well. So there is just so much more for us to run at, and I couldn't be more excited that we're extending our lead in terms of our network.

Speaker 2

Well, it's a good thing you are because we're filling it up. So what's interesting is that with 3,700,000 High speed Internet customers and rapidly growing. The average speeds on our network are not just twice as fast as our competitors, but growing. We're speeding up, not slowing down on this network in terms of the average person's lived experience. And that's just phenomenal.

Speaker 2

And it's and we've got Tons of capacity that we have not yet rolled out, which opens up more and more opportunity on our way to not only the 7000000 to 8000000 high speed Internet customers, but our ability to, with the best network, continue to take share from our competitors. We said at the beginning, we had a 2 plus year advantage,

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Thanks a lot. Good evening. Just following up, if I could, on that spectrum deployment. I think in the past, you've talked about rolling out fixed wireless A majority of the U. S, perhaps you could just help us understand where you are on coverage today with the base offer and How that should evolve over time now that you're at 285 going to 300.

Speaker 11

And I guess a related question is, for Ralf, you didn't mention the millimeter wave. I know you've been looking at potentially a macro overlay product. How are you thinking about that at the moment or attacking MDUs with millimeter wave? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Let's start with the millimeter wave question, and we can come back to the coverage on fixed wireless. I can touch on that one.

Speaker 12

Right. So we are actually using millimeter wave today. We have deployments that we early on started off in Manhattan, for example, in Los Angeles, In some areas where we really have that extraordinary capacity need, we can use the tool of millimeter wave. Our general strategy is not based on millimeter wave. It's based on a macro strategy, which you know is our layered approach with our low band and our mid band and now also deploying our PCS spectrum for 5 gs.

Speaker 12

But millimeter wave could also be potentially an interesting play for us when it comes to Enhancing capacities that could be used, for example, for HSI. And we are working with our vendors, and we are working through our OEMs to figure out if we can make a viable economic and technical performance case out of that with them.

Speaker 2

Kind of bridges to your second question. Maybe this is a good time to remind everybody how our capacity model works for fixed wireless access. Essentially, right now, we serve about, the potential of about 50,000,000 homes, but they're not in certain geographies. They're geographically dispersed all over the U. S.

Speaker 2

Because the way our model works is we're selling excess capacity sector by sector. And so we what we do is Study every sector from every tower in our in our network and determine what amount of normative smartphone usage will there be over the next several years. And in areas where there's still excess capacity, we today approve applicants for home Internet use. And right now, there's about 50,000,000 home addresses where if you were to go into our tool and apply to be our customer, we'd say yes out of the 145,000,000 in the country. But what's interesting is if you and several of your neighbors all did the same, the nth person would get a no because it's a dynamic model.

Speaker 2

What we're selling is excess capacity. And because of that, What we our modeling shows us that we will get to, as we said at the very beginning, about 7,000,000 or 8,000,000 households with this excess capacity model that's not burdened by capital. And since it's not burdened by capital with an already built mobile network that you need for great coverage and competitiveness, we're able to profitably build this business at very low prices. It's just a win win for a sort of single digit penetration part of the market. Now to the premise of your question and what Ulf was getting into, of course, we're studying whether there are ways to go beyond that initial Excess capacity capital free model capital free ish model.

Speaker 2

And we haven't drawn any conclusions about that yet. I mean, we're looking Hard at millimeter wave. We're looking at whether or not dedicating mid band spectrum to HSI would make sense, whether they're non standards based solutions. And we just haven't drawn any conclusions. It's not immediately obvious, that there are economic ways Grow this business beyond its initial single digit penetration, but you may see us doing trials in the marketplace as we experiment with this and try to crack the code.

Speaker 2

And so you'll hear about us trying millimeter wave things or MDU strategies or non standards based Solutions to see if there's a way to get after it. And you see us trialing fiber, whether or not there's a way for our Our distribution, our brand to add value in the fiber ecosystem, and I've made mention of that before. All these things are things we're doing to try to learn. The good news is we've got some time because we'll hit this kind of initial terminal sizing of HSI. Still we've got 2 more years to run.

Speaker 2

Our heads are down seeing if there's a way to crack the code on this.

Speaker 4

And of course, any of the things we do there that we just talked about, a capital burden model or something with fiber, All things that would have to be accretive to our Analyst Day guidance that we put out there. Good.

Speaker 2

All right.

Speaker 1

Great. Operator, next question.

Operator

That will come from the line of Tim Horan with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Thanks guys. Just curious, why wouldn't you be raising fixed wireless prices now? It seems like you have very, very strong demand from everything we hear out there and kind of have somewhat limited supply. And I guess related to that, the Go 5 gs plan, can you give us some

Speaker 6

color what that means for ARPU growth in the

Speaker 13

next couple of years? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay. Let's start with the second one on Go 5 gs and where is ARPU going and ARPA and all that stuff. Peter, we can start with you.

Speaker 4

Absolutely. I'll let John comment on the success of Go 5 gs Plus. But as I always say, when we think about ARPU, and you saw a sequential increase of about $0.20 And we continue to believe on a year to year basis, ARPU will be generally stable. There's probably some potential for sequential increase again from Q2 to Q3. But since it is such a mix driven metric and you have to put everything into it, whether we're talking about all the benefits we see from Go 5 gs plus customers than the average that we see, but our high CLV customers coming in, very high quality customers.

Speaker 4

Similarly, in business. Business, you tend to get enterprise, government, large accounts that have very, very great CLVs, but would have given the nature of the volume purchasing lower ARPU. So all of that blends into ARPU that we see as generally stable. But it's the ARPA strategy that we have. It's the switching attracting accounts into T Mobile and then the land and expand ARPA strategy, which you just saw, an exciting update to the guide from plus 1% to slightly over 1% on a year over year basis And that's really the focus point for us.

Speaker 4

But the question on Go 5 gs plus I think I'd hand it to John for a moment because it's been a phenomenal success.

Speaker 14

Yes. And then I think, Peter, just to remind everybody, the Go 5 gs plus is really kind of a front book initiative. We're not going into the base and asking people to migrate to Go 5 gs plus and doing all of that within the base. It's really kind of a front book initiative. But this is going fantastic.

Speaker 14

And we had an opportunity to to mention this. On our Q1 earnings call back on April 27 when we launched Phone Freedom, Go 5 gs, Go 5 gs Plus in mid April. And like Mike said a few moments ago, when you look at the overall porting ratios and the attractiveness of this offer And what's happening that we've increased our porting ratios every month against every competitor and have followed that through so far in July. And over 60% of the accounts that are joining T Mobile are now subscribing to Go 5 gs Plus. And there's utility that's different than Magenta MAX in terms of Hotspot data that we've increased in terms of high speed, roaming in Mexico and Canada across North America that we've increased.

Speaker 14

But the big pain point that I think Go 5 gs Plus is solving is that new and true promise. First of all, paired with the easy unlock and helping people get out of AT and T And Verizon, mostly AT and T given the unlocked devices, helping people get out of that switch into T Mobile. But this 3 year contract Cycle that AT and T and Verizon has. We knew this was a big insight and a big opportunity that even I underestimated. How big of a pain point that is, the fact that you, You can basically go to law school and complete law school faster than you can complete a phone contract at AT and T and Verizon.

Speaker 14

And so that's a huge pain point. And the promise of Go 5 gs Plus of being able to get in a new device, same device offer as a new customer every 2 years. That's a differentiated and unique proposition in the marketplace that's really different and has really resonated with customers.

Speaker 2

Well said. Okay. And your last question was about HSI pricing. I'll just answer it briefly. I don't normally give sort of forward looking commentary on pricing.

Speaker 2

So I'll answer it this way instead, which is do we see, ARPU and are we interested in ARPU enhancement for HSI? And the answer is yes, of course. But generally, when you look at our track record, our philosophy in the past as to how to get about that isn't to jack up people's prices. Is to add value to their life, bring new services, show them increased offers and let them self select their way up. And obviously, we're

Operator

That will come from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi. Your line is open.

Speaker 15

Thanks and good afternoon. Just following on the earlier comments on some of the integration milestones that you've hit. What are the activities that are left to get to the full synergy run rate of $7,500,000,000 for this year's guidance, dollars 8,000,000,000 next year. And can you unpack and maybe even size some of the opportunities for further cost efficiencies that may be embedded in your multiyear plan to drive that longer term margin expansion? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay. Great, Michael. Well, let's talk about where we are on synergies But that doesn't mean the synergy run rates are quite there yet. So maybe you can comment on that dynamic, Peter.

Speaker 4

Yes, exactly. A few things in there. Of course, we said we have a small tail of customers to still get over and that will allow the final decommissioning of systems and things to that whether it's front office, back office, Those are the things that are kind of left to do. Certainly from a cost perspective, there's a little bit in terms of physical decom. While the sites are shut off, there's still physical decom happening.

Speaker 4

And on the synergy development, as we get from $7,500,000,000 to the $8,000,000,000 next year, really the big chunk of that is avoided costs. So we'll realize the vast majority of the run rate synergies by the end of this year, which you'd naturally expect given we're saying we're substantially done. And then the shift to next year will be fundamentally those avoided site built costs.

Speaker 15

Okay, great. And then just one other. Can you just share how T Mobile is looking at the role and mix of online distribution? And how you're viewing the durability of customers wanting a

Speaker 2

Yes, absolutely. And it kind of goes to the premise of your follow on question, your initial follow on Michael. I mean, obviously, across consumer markets generally, customers want a transaction that's fast, Transparent, simple and mostly digital. And our industry has been very stubborn on that front, mostly due to the complexity of the offers across all the providers. And so that's something that we're very focused on, and I know everybody in the industry is.

Speaker 2

Our digital capabilities are rapidly improving, especially as it relates to self-service Serve customers in a better way, and we can get into some examples around that. But because of emerging technologies, there's a lot of potential over the coming years to not only meet customers where they are finally in this industry because we've been kind of slow in this industry due to the complexity of our offers, but also to potentially realize some efficiencies over time. And that's a good thing because the cost of competition is high. And as you've seen over the last few years, it's gone up. And so it's all about us seizing opportunities to be able to continue this formula that works so well.

Speaker 2

And for us to continue to do what we do with this flywheel of success, we can't sit on our hands. We have to be able to seize new opportunities, not necessarily to outperform the promises we made you. Those promises were really high, fulsome promises, But in some cases, to achieve them in light of what we have seen in the past, which is some increased cost of competition, which at the end of the day is great for consumers.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

That will come from the line of Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Speaker 16

Great. Thank you. Couple of questions. I want to follow-up on the private network question. When do you feel that private networks, 5 gs private networks will become a material enough number on the revenues.

Speaker 16

An associated question, do you feel customers, whether it's consumer or enterprise, really understand what 5 gs means for them and why they should choose you with your head start? It just seems like the market is still just kind of like, oh, I'm not sure what 5 gs is.

Speaker 2

Whether or not they give us credit that the thing that got them that was 5 gs, I really don't care. But we have the highest performing network with incredible reach of the high performing parts of our network, 5 gs, than anybody else, like by far, like twice the landmass covered of ultra capacity 5 gs, then our next closest competitor and rapidly expanding, as Ulf explained. And you're right, they don't really give 5 gs credit for that. What they want, make no mistake, is a very powerful signal everywhere they go because they're watching video more than ever. They're glued to their TikTok and their Instagram stories and their And that's the power of 5 gs, whether they give it credit or not.

Speaker 2

On the business side, I'll say the short version, which is we don't really know. I mean, whether to your question, literally material means something in our company and that's big. We're a big company. We don't know when it will be bigger than a breadbasket, but we do know that we're best positioned to capture it. And as Peter pointed out back at our Analyst Day 2 plus years ago, we actually did not, for that reason, factor a lot of revenues in or really any at all from some of these advanced 5 gs network services.

Speaker 2

Our strategy was, let's make sure we are best positioned to capture them. And Cali, I think, very definitely explained some of the things that we're doing in this area with early adopting customers. Customers. But when it becomes something that's bigger than a breadbasket and really contributes, we don't really know. And because we didn't know, we made you no promises in our long range plan on it.

Speaker 2

But I can tell you this promise, as that market develops, we are beautifully positioned to capture it.

Speaker 3

All

Speaker 1

right. Looks like we're right at time. So I appreciate everybody joining us today.

Speaker 16

If you

Speaker 1

have any further questions, please reach out to either Investor Relations or the Media Relations departments. And again, we look forward to talking to you again soon. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, everybody.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the T Mobile First Quarter Earnings Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect have a pleasant

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Earnings Conference Call
T-Mobile US Q2 2023
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