Onsemi Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 31, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ON Semi Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

Operator

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Varag Agarwal, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Liz. Good morning, and thank you for joining On Semi's 2nd quarter 2023 quarterly results conference call. I'm joined today by Hassanal Khouri, our President and CEO and Thad Sandt, our CFO. This call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.awnsemin.com. A replay of this webcast along with our 2023 Second Quarter's earnings release will be available on our website Approximately 1 hour following this conference call and the recorded webcast will be available for approximately 30 days following this conference call.

Speaker 1

Additional information is posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. Our earnings release and this presentation include certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures So the most directly comparable GAAP measures and the GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release, which is posted separately on our website in the Investor Relations section. During the course of this conference call, we will make projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from projections.

Speaker 1

Important factors that can affect our business, including factors that could cause actual results to differ from our forward looking statements Are described in our most recent Form 10 ks, Form 10 Qs and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our earnings release for the Q2 of 2023. Our estimates All other forward looking statements may change and the company assumes no obligation to update forward looking statements to reflect actual results, Now let me turn it over to Hassan. Hassan?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Parag. Good morning and thanks to everyone on the call for joining us. The executive staff and I are thrilled with the results Following another successful quarter for Onsemi with Q2 revenue of $2,090,000,000 and non GAAP gross margins of 47.4 Percent, both above the midpoint of our guidance. Our worldwide teams are firing on all cylinders. Well, maybe I should start saying they're spinning all motors now.

Speaker 2

Our approach of disciplined, consistent and reliable execution continues to be the winning formula for Aunt Semi quarter after quarter. We have again exceeded our targets despite the current market environment, all while delivering best in class performance for our customers. The most recent example is our silicon carbide performance. We ramped a new and highly complex technology, while continuing to surpass internal manufacturing and financial metrics, and we are all very proud of everyone that contributes to this success daily. Given our progress in Q2 silicon carbide revenue growing nearly 4x over Q222, We remain on track to achieve our first $1,000,000,000 revenue year and remain on track to have more than 50% of our substrates Coming from our internal production by the end of Q4.

Speaker 2

EV is the fastest growing part of this business followed by energy infrastructure. Customers are excited to work with us. Our successful capacity expansion is creating an opportunity for On Semi In Q2 alone, we signed more than $3,000,000,000 of new silicon carbide LTSAs, bringing our total lifetime silicon carbide revenue Committed through long term supply agreements to over $11,000,000,000 One of our largest wins last quarter was with Vitesco, A leader in modern drive technologies and electrification solutions who signed a $1,900,000,000 agreement to support their growing need For silicon carbide in electric vehicles, they are co investing $250,000,000 as part of this 10 year LTSA to ensure capacity for their ramp. We also extended our silicon carbide engagement with BorgWarner to integrate our EliteStick 120750 volt power devices into its power modules to deliver increased power density and higher efficiency, which increased the range and overall performance of EVs. We have had a long standing relationship with BorgWarner And this extended LTSA now amounts to $1,000,000,000 of committed silicon carbide revenue.

Speaker 2

Finally, with Magna, one of the world's largest automotive suppliers, we have signed a silicon carbide LTSA to expand our strategic collaboration, which has long included technologies across our intelligent power and sensing portfolio. Together, we will integrate our 1200 volt Intelligent power devices into Magna's traction inverter solutions to improve the performance of electric vehicles over the next 10 years. By integrating Onsemi's industry leading Elite6 technology, Magna E Drive systems will deliver greater Cooling performance and faster acceleration and charging rate that will help improve efficiency and increase the range of EVs. In addition, they will co invest $40,000,000 in new silicon carbide equipment in our Hudson and Czech Republic locations to ensure access to future supply. LTSAs have become an integral part of the way we do business with our strategic customers.

Speaker 2

LTSAs continue to provide us with extended visibility, stability in pricing and volume commitments, while allowing us to plan for long term capacity. In terms of market dynamics, both automotive and industrial remained healthy in Q2 with quarter over quarter growth of 8% and 10% And now account for 80% of our total revenue. It was the first time that our automotive revenue surpassed The $1,000,000,000 mark in a single quarter, driven by strength in intelligent power for electric vehicles and intelligent sensing for advanced safety applications. New regional regulations will require that vehicles be equipped with both a wider field of view to detect vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists As well as high speed electronic braking for highways. These new standards can only be met with higher resolution image sensors like the 8 megapixel device, which we first introduced 2 years ago and is now widely adopted by top carmakers for production in their 2024 models.

Speaker 2

With this accelerated adoption, we expect our 2023 revenue for our 8 megapixel image sensors to more than double year over year. We have further expanded our intelligent sensing portfolio with the newly introduced Hyperlux family of image sensors for automotive and industrial markets designed to eliminate flicker, all while delivering The highest dynamic range available in the market. For industrial applications such as surveillance and machine vision, Our new products also offer very low power with intelligent wake on motion to even further extend energy savings. Another significant milestone this quarter is the sampling of our automotive grade image sensor out of our East Fishkill Fab The leading global ADAS customers and partners making OnSTEMI the only image sensing supplier with a U. S.-based 300 millimeter fab And both internal and external sources across every step of the imaging supply chain.

Speaker 2

Customers value the investments Onsemi has made With evolving vehicle requirements and consumer behavior, automotive design cycles are getting shorter and continue to get compressed. Therefore, we must remain at the forefront of the latest trends and regulations and ahead of our customers' need. We are innovating with the best in the world and being recognized for the value we provide. Most recently, we received a prestigious Volkswagen Group Award for Innovation for our strategic partnership on future electric vehicles With our broad portfolio of intelligent power and intelligent sensing technologies, along with our focus on establishing vertically integrated silicon carbide production We are grateful for partners like VW as well as our other strategic customers We trust Onsemi's packaging expertise, scalable manufacturing capabilities and problem solving approach to deliver joint innovation In the rapidly evolving automotive market. In Industrial, our revenue grew 5% year over year and 10% sequentially with continued strength in medical applications as well as energy infrastructure, which increased nearly 70% year over year in Q2.

Speaker 2

Our growth in the Industrial segment is driven by the accelerated adoption of high growth energy infrastructure applications like solar inverters, energy storage inverters and EV fast chargers. Solar is forecasted to surpass coal and gas in installed capacity by 2027, and On Semi As the number one market share position with a full suite of silicon, silicon carbide and packaging technologies to deliver the most highly efficient And system optimized solutions to customers. We have now secured $1,950,000,000 In long term supply agreements for power modules with leading global manufacturers of solar inverters, among which are 8 of the top 10 solar inverter suppliers. These customers are securing supply assurance to support their growth. Highlights in medical include market expansion for continuous glucose monitors or CGMs, Driven by the reimbursement of monitoring therapies, we are number 1 in CGMs, which we support with our sensor interface portfolio And we expect this market to continue to grow at a 20% CAGR over the next 5 years.

Speaker 2

In hearing aids, we have partners With innovative customers who will push accelerated adoption in the market with over the counter solutions, improving accessibility and lowering cost of ownership. Lecti Hearing is one of the world's game changers in hearing aid and uses Onsemi's intelligent sensing technology at the heart of their solution, earning them recognition as one of Time 100's most influential companies in 2023. Once again, I want to thank all our employees who work on our incredible silicon carbide effort around the world as well as those who remain focused on all of our other strategic growth areas of intelligent power and sensing. We have a unique opportunity as a company to accelerate our investments in areas where we believe we can outpace the market With the capital generated by our mature and growing businesses, the size and scale of our operations have allowed us to leverage our infrastructure and expertise inside the company to tackle complex problems and drive increased output to support the growing needs of our customers. And now, let me turn the call over to Thad to give you more details on our results.

Speaker 2

Thad?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Hassane. We're pleased to report another stellar quarter for On Semi. Our Q2 results and our Q3 outlook clearly demonstrate our consistent execution, Outpacing the industry while navigating the soft macro environment. We are uniquely positioned as our business is being powered by multiple secular growth Drivers in the fastest growing end markets of automotive and industrial. All our Q2 financial metrics exceeded the midpoint of our guidance.

Speaker 3

We grew revenue 7% sequentially, expanded gross margin by 60 basis points to 47.4% and delivered a 12% quarter over quarter increase in earnings per share to $1.33 which exceeded our guidance range. Our global teams have transformed the business to deliver predictable and sustainable performance with above industry growth at attractive margins. Revenue for the Q2 was $2,090,000,000 roughly flat compared to the Q2 of 2022 And increased 7% over Q1. The sequential increase was driven by growth in the automotive and industrial end markets With accelerating demand for electrification and renewable energy, even without silicon carbide, our revenue increased at an impressive pace sequentially. Turning to silicon carbide.

Speaker 3

As Saan mentioned, our continued execution and increasing number of LTSAs With automotive and energy infrastructure customers, we are ramping our silicon carbide production to support the increasing demand and remain ahead of our internal plans. Over the past 2 years, we have made strategic brownfield investments to expand capacity and ramp production much faster by leveraging our existing manufacturing footprint and expertise. These industry leading ROIC investments are now contributing to our financial results. In the second quarter, Our silicon carbide business nearly doubled gross margin sequentially. And I'm proud to report our silicon carbide business achieved its 1st profitable quarter Delivering high teen operating margin on a fully loaded basis, which includes all start up costs.

Speaker 3

I'd like to take this opportunity to thank the 33,000 On Semi employees across the globe for their commitment to success and delivering outstanding results quarter after quarter. Turning to end markets. Our automotive revenue hit a new record of over $1,000,000,000 in Q2, growing 8% quarter over quarter and 35% year over year, driven by the accelerating adoption of electrification and the continued need for sensing in vehicles. In Q2, industrial revenue grew 5% year over year and 10% sequentially with continued strength in EV charging, Medical applications as well as energy infrastructure, which increased nearly 70% year over year and is now a meaningful part of our overall revenue. We continue to exit volatile non core businesses, which included another $57,000,000 in Q2 revenue, bringing our total year to date of exited revenue to more than $100,000,000 nearly $400,000,000 since the start of our transformation.

Speaker 3

We will continue to be opportunistic in non core markets where margins are favorable and engagements are strategic with our customers. We now expect to exit $350,000,000 to $400,000,000 in 2023. Looking at the split between operating units, revenue for the Power Solutions Group or PSG was $1,120,000,000 An increase of 6% year over year with more than 60% year over year increase in auto and nearly 70% year over year increase in energy Revenue for the Advanced Solutions Group or ASG was $650,000,000 a 9% decline over Q222, driven by deliberate exits and continued softness in non core markets, offset by strength in automotive and industrial. Revenue for the Intelligent Sensing Group or ISG was $325,000,000 a 4% increase year over year, primarily due To the automotive shift to higher value sensors in our portfolio such as 8 megapixel image sensors. Our GAAP and non GAAP gross margin of 47.4% improved 60 basis points quarter over quarter, Driven by Silicon Carbide and despite the significant headwinds from EfK we disclosed last quarter.

Speaker 3

We continue to improve the cost structure of the fab, We expect the EfK to be dilutive to gross margins by approximately 250 basis points for the next several quarters. We remain committed to maintaining our long term gross margin trajectory as we execute our FabRight strategy of driving efficiencies and further consolidation in our internal as well as our external manufacturing network. Now let me give you some additional numbers for your model. GAAP operating expenses for the Q2 were $318,700,000 as compared to $453,100,000 in the second Quarter of 2022. Non GAAP operating expenses were $305,500,000 as compared to $317,700,000 GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 32.2% and non GAAP operating margin was 32.8 percent.

Speaker 3

Non GAAP operating margin increased 60 basis points quarter over quarter. Our GAAP tax rate was 15.3% and our non GAAP tax rate was 15.8%. GAAP earnings per share for the Q1 was $1.29 as compared to $1.02 in the quarter a year ago. Non GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.33 flat year over year and above the high end of our guidance. Our GAAP diluted share count was 448,700,000 shares and our non GAAP diluted share count was $438,700,000 shares.

Speaker 3

In Q2, we repurchased $60,000,000 of shares at an average price of $86.49 per share and we remain committed to our long term strategy of returning 50% of free cash flow to our shareholders. Turning to the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents was $2,600,000,000 and we had $1,100,000,000 undrawn on our revolver. In Q2, we proactively downsized our revolver by $500,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 and extended the maturity to 2028 to align to our long term needs and projected cash flow. Cash from operations was $390,800,000 and free cash flow was negative at $39,800,000 Due to timing of investments in capital expenditures and growth in strategic inventory in the Q2, we expect free cash flow Capital expenditures during Q2 were $430,600,000 which equates to a capital intensity of 20.6%.

Speaker 3

As we indicated previously, we are directing a significant portion of our capital expenditures towards silicon carbide and enabling our 300 millimeter capabilities at EFK and expect our capital intensity to be in the mid to high teen percentage range for the next several quarters. Accounts receivable of $944,400,000 increased by $63,500,000 and DSO was 41 days consistent with the Q1. Inventory increased by $149,500,000 sequentially and days of Inventory increased by 4 days to 163 days. This includes approximately 54 days of bridge inventory To support fab transition and the silicon carbide ramp, excluding these strategic builds, our base inventory declined 7 days quarter over quarter. We continue to proactively manage distribution inventory.

Speaker 3

Distribution inventory increased $20,000,000 sequentially with weeks of inventory at 7 weeks in Q2 versus 7 weeks in Q1. Total debt remained flat at $3,500,000,000 and net leverage is 0.27. Let me now provide you key elements of our non GAAP guidance for the 3rd quarter. A table detailing our GAAP and non GAAP guidance is provided in the press release related to our 2nd quarter results. Our business continues to strengthen with improved visibility and we expect to recognize approximately $6,400,000,000 of committed revenue From our LTSAs over the next 12 months in addition to our non cancelable and non returnable orders.

Speaker 3

Given the soft macro environment, we are taking a cautious stance in our guidance. We anticipate Q3 revenues will be in the range of $2,095,000,000,000 to $2,195,000,000 We expect automotive and industrial to increase Quarter over quarter with other markets down mid to high single digits as we plan further exits in our non core markets. We expect non GAAP gross margin to be between 46% 48% due to lower factory utilization, EfK headwinds and the dilutive impact of silicon carbide, which remains ahead of plan. This also includes share based Compensation of $4,400,000 As we have previously stated, 2023 will be a transition year for our gross margins and we expect to maintain our trajectory as we manage these temporary headwinds. We expect non GAAP operating expenses of $300,000,000 to $315,000,000 including share based compensation of $29,000,000 We anticipate our non GAAP OIE will be negligible for the quarter.

Speaker 3

We expect our non GAAP tax rate to be in the range of 15.5 16.5% and our non GAAP diluted share count for the 3rd quarter is expected to be approximately 439,000,000 shares. This results in non GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $1.27 to 1.41 We expect capital expenditures of $440,000,000 to $480,000,000 primarily in brownfield investments in Silicon Carbide And EfK. To wrap up, the structural changes we've been implementing since the start of our transformation Have improved the resiliency of our business and enabled us to better navigate the soft market environment. We have delivered another quarter With results above expectations, reinforcing that consistent, reliable execution is our path forward to achieving our long term model. We have reduced the volatility in our financials and held to our commitments while navigating short term market dynamics And we plan to continue to deliver for our shareholders 1 quarter at a time.

Speaker 3

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Liz

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi. Chris, your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hey, you guys cut out. You're here for Chris Danely. Sorry, you went dark for a second. Hey guys, my first question is just on the overall cycle, Hassan. How would you compare Taking silicon carbide out just pure semis now versus 3 months ago, would you say it's gotten a little better, a little worse?

Speaker 4

Any comments on visibility into the overall semi cycle now Last quarter at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, I'll tell you auto and industrial remains healthy even if you take out Silicon Carbide, that business is up. And that's really the way we position both of these businesses and a lot of the megatrends That are underlying it with the EV and the energy infrastructure. So when you put both of those without silicon carbide, that's also supporting growth in general for What I would call the silicon business. So strength in these markets is sustained.

Speaker 4

And how about non auto industrial?

Speaker 2

Non auto industrial, we'll see it slightly down, Yes, flat slightly down and that's a lot of our peers that are more exposed to those businesses are seeing and we see the same thing.

Speaker 3

Yes. And for Q2, our non auto and industrial was up slightly, but as Hassane said, we expect it to be down mid to high single digits in Q3.

Speaker 4

Yes, great. And for my follow-up, any changes in on specific lead times and shortages quarter over quarter? Has your lead times gone down, gone up, stayed the same, shortages up, down, stayed the

Speaker 5

same versus 3 months ago?

Speaker 3

Yes. On the lead times, if you look at our average lead time, it's very consistent quarter on quarter. There's been pockets where lead times They've decreased a few pockets where they've increased. But on average, they are relatively flat quarter on quarter.

Speaker 6

Great.

Speaker 4

Thanks guys.

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya With Bank of America.

Speaker 8

Hi, this is Blake Freeman on for Vivek Arya. Thanks for taking my question. So first, just want to start off with that On Semi has Signed a number of silicon carbide LTSAs. So I was hoping you could provide the mix of autos versus non autos. And then looking further into the industrial market, your growth is up 5% Year on year, which is certainly well above other peers down 10% to 20%.

Speaker 8

I know silicon carbide is a partial contributor, but I was hoping you can Maybe what you're seeing versus what peers aren't?

Speaker 2

Yes, a couple of things. On the silicon carbide, it's still within the same mix we I talked about before about 90% is auto, about 10% is industrial. The LTSA that we talked about Sure. Or the $1,950,000,000 that's for the whole market. So that includes silicon and silicon carbide or IGBT because we talked about the hybrid modules We're able to provide that's driving that 1.95.

Speaker 2

On the industrial side specifically what really breaks us apart is The fact that we are extremely focused on the growth markets within industrial, we talked about energy infrastructure, which includes renewable, includes Charging all of that, that is driven those are megatrends underlying the industrial. And in my prepared remarks, I talked about our focus on the medical side of the business, which is also under the industrial and that's seen its own transformation from the hearing aid going over the counter To see GM being part of the reimbursement scenarios, all of these are driving underlying growth, but they're very specific To where we have chosen to put our strategy from a company perspective, that's where our investments have been and the growth is coming specifically. So that's the reason I can pinpoint exactly what is specific to On Semi versus the general peers.

Speaker 8

Got it. And then as a follow-up, I was just hoping you can provide an update on the progress of in sourcing silicon carbide substrates on your time line to be fully in sourced. And I understand the strategy has been focusing on brownfield investments, but with industry silicon Carbide supply expected to trail demand for the foreseeable future. Would management ever consider building its own greenfield facility down the road?

Speaker 2

So the progress I'll answer both of these separately. So the progress is still on track. I reiterated the fact that we're going to be exiting this year With majority coming internally, so we're still on track. That business is actually or that operation is actually performing better than we expected. So high confidence in our commitment that we've made about 6 to 9 months ago.

Speaker 2

So we're going to exit this year With majority internal. As far as brownfield, greenfield, we have a lot of runway with the brownfield. We have a great Fab and back end exposure and what we're doing is we're going to utilize it. We don't see that Needing to go to greenfield at any time in the future, of course, that's dependent on business and economic sense. Right now, with all the wins that we have disclosed, those are we are able to support those with brownfield, Specifically, as we embark on our Fab Right strategy that Thad described in our Analyst Day, That's going to be supporting all the LTSAs that we've disclosed.

Speaker 2

And look, if business is even better than what we are Talking about today and we have to go to greenfield, then that's a really good reason to do it. But for now, brownfield is the path and we're able to Supported. And that's really highlights the good ROIC that we've been able to deliver.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.

Speaker 9

Hey guys, can you hear me okay?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 9

Okay. Hey guys, first of all, congratulations. This is yet another Fantastic quarter and guide from you guys. So congratulations. And I had two questions, Hassan.

Speaker 9

I'm seeing a little bit of a change in your business. I used To see sort of transactional business in silicon carbide, you'd get orders, you'll get customers, but now we're seeing really large orders, really large Customers' multi year, multi $1,000,000,000 deals. Is this happening because of the competitive environment more recently? Or is this Happening because you are much more comfortable taking on these orders. And if so, why are you more comfortable taking on these kind of orders?

Speaker 9

And then I know you've said that you never want to sell wafers, but I just want to clarify, are these orders strictly all 100 And Chip, is there a portion of wafers here involved as well? And I've got a follow-up.

Speaker 2

Yes. So let me answer the latter part That's straightforward. We're still not interested in selling what we call substrates. We're not in the business of substrate. Our focus on the substrate manufacturing is for internal consumption that has not changed.

Speaker 2

And look, the demand that we've been talking about Utilizes all of our substrate operations. So we're increasing that capacity in tandem Just ahead of our revenue or the ramp from our customers. That remains unchanged and that remains our focus. And look, that operation is Performing ahead of plan. So I'm very, very satisfied with what the team has done there.

Speaker 2

As far as the strategic engagements with the customer, It's not only our willingness to take that business on. We're always been willing and we've talked very confidently about our capabilities and what we have been ramping. What is changing is, if you think about the landscape, we have we are the only one that scaled very quickly And is a silicon carbide supplier at scale. And that is now very, very clear to our customers And their customers, whether it's Tier 1 or an OEM, and that ability to scale and really deliver exactly on our commitments to all the customers who had LTSAs with us have gotten what they want, no hiccups in ramp, no hiccups in technology, no hiccups in expansion. So they're coming back and expanding those agreements because they're winning more business with our products and they want to secure more of their future.

Speaker 2

So it's a win win really And it's how you want it to be.

Speaker 9

Fantastic. And for my follow-up, I know investors always look forward and I want you to deliver on the next thing. So the question on 8 inches wafers, we hear a lot from investors about the cost disruption that that might bring, Supposedly lower cost. Curious if your customers bring this up with you at all at this point in time? And then I know you have plans for 8 inches wafers, maybe you could update us on those While you're at it.

Speaker 9

And then Prashant, I also had a clarification on your previous question. Are you shooting for more than 50% internal by the end of the year

Speaker 2

50% by the end of the year, but that's not what the goal is. The goal is above that, and we'll reach that in 2024. So we're going to exit above 50% this year and we're going to keep going into 2024 And we'll update you of kind of where we see that depending on the market and the dynamic there. The first part of the question?

Speaker 3

8 inches 8

Speaker 2

inches So we're still consistent and on track with what I've described in the past. We are running 8 inches currently. We are running it for what we what I call building the baseline, baseline yield, baseline all of that. So we have been producing 8 inches wafers in order to kind of flush out all of the manufacturing. So when we go to ramp, We are able to ramp as fast and as successfully as we have done in 6 inches So our customers don't ask for that.

Speaker 2

What our customers care for is Delivering the cost structure to be competitive, delivering the capacity to be able to ramp and be in there when they need to ramp. We're able to deliver on all of these commitments both on 6 inches today and 8 inches moving forward. Our customers looked And audited our manufacturing capabilities on-site. They feel as comfortable as we are. And look, and you see it with when somebody Signs of 10 year LTSA, you know it's got 8 inches in it and that's the confidence that they have in our business that we're able to deliver.

Speaker 9

Congrats again, guys. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 10

Hi, guys. Can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 10

Yes. We're cutting out here at the end of the introduction. I apologize. I appreciate the fact that You're probably going to increase your silicon carbide revenue 4 or 5 fold this year. Then maybe if you can speak to A preliminary view for fiscal year 2024 considering supply constraints.

Speaker 10

It sounds like you're not demand constrained, but Yes, maybe focusing primarily on the supply side.

Speaker 2

Yes, we're not going to guide for 2024, but you can Basically, when we get to Q4, you can take the exit rate, which is going to be healthy and then project forward. But we're not projecting into 2024, it will be substantially higher.

Speaker 10

Okay. And maybe if you can give us an update on any sort of government subsidies, CHIPS Act funding equivalents elsewhere, Specific to the silicon side of the business and then as well, silicon carbide, I understand there really weren't any ChipSc support for silicon carbide, but I think you had an Opportunity to comment on that, maybe if you can give us an update on where that stands?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, we're engaged in all parties, not just in the U. S, But of course, in Europe and we have a big operation in Korea, which has their own or variant of the Chips Act. So we're engaged in all three. We've announced a $2,000,000,000 investment for an end to end silicon carbide manufacturing, which will be The only one in the world really from substrates all the way to wafers on the same site.

Speaker 2

And we're considering all three Of these regions because we have brownfield capabilities in all three of these regions. We talked about a decision made between now and the end of the year of where it's going to be. And part of the decision is well, the main decision is purely economic and financial. Therefore, The funding from the government plays a big role in swinging it one way or another for depending on which site. We're in the process and the discussion All of these, but that one is specifically related to silicon carbide to comment on your question.

Speaker 2

As far as in general, we have made comments On silicon carbide, specifically in the CHIPS Act, but that's really up to them to what they do with it and that's part of our decision making progress. We're going to go where it makes sense to get the best ROIC for our investments and that's how we create shareholder value. That remains the top of our priority and we're going to make that decision between now and the end of the year of where it goes.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Hassan.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question and great quarter. So my question is around your Strategy or thinking around co investment on sick. Some of your competitors are looking for $1,000,000,000 Almost financing through these commitments. I know you did well with like the Fetasco and Magna here For smaller amounts, but I'm really wondering about the strategy here.

Speaker 5

Are they investing in new Capacity, what are they getting out of this? Are they getting a haircut on wafers? Or is it just dedicated capacity? And how are you thinking about this? And the amount You want to take in overall from your customers as well to help finance this?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I will start at a very high level. 1, what differentiate Onsemi, we can afford our own investments because of the cash flow from operation. So We're not looking at funding as a way to help us grow the business and help us build capacity. You looked at our balance sheet, you look at our cash position and you look at cash from operations and our CapEx investments, all of them are able to be Supported by our operations.

Speaker 2

So very different financial posture when it comes to capacity expansion. Where it comes strategically from a customer is really it's a win win. It's the commitment. There is no higher commitment On an LTSA, then one where the customer co invests with us. And that co investments Have multiple scenarios with it depending on the customer and what problem or what opportunity they look for.

Speaker 2

So it's not a haircut. It's basically it's an offset of depreciation. It doesn't change our cost structure for the value that we provide. It just offsets depreciation, whether it's depreciation on our book or their book based on the ownership of the equipment and how we apply that investment. And again, those are strategic in nature, which means everyone is specific to what that specific customer is trying to solve for.

Speaker 2

And we work constructively with all of these customers. But it is not a we must get that money for us to ramp. This is a we are able to ramp and those are strategic investments. So it's a very different field we're playing in.

Speaker 6

Great.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. And by the way, the reason for the delta in dollars that you see is again goes back to brownfield versus greenfield. We're investing in brownfield, which Thad and Analyst Day talked about a 40% better CapEx Than a greenfield. So that gives you kind of the delta why we're able to ramp so quickly much higher in output Or much lower cost.

Speaker 5

Yes. We definitely understand the efficiencies there. I also want Talk about solar, I wasn't expecting $2,000,000,000 in LTSAs from solar, Which is, I believe, part of industrial. Are you expecting industrial sick now to ramp faster? And then just as a follow on there, just talking about gross margins for SIC overall, you said they doubled 1st profitable quarter, talk about this progression, is this all moving faster than you would expect?

Speaker 5

And is it in part because of these industrial as a percentage of SIC as well? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So on the revenue ramp for industrial, specifically on the energy infrastructure, the $1,950,000,000 is both silicon and silicon carbide. Remember that market is being serviced by a very unique value proposition we have. Simon talked about in the Analyst Today, the hybrid module where we're able to put the best technology required into a single module to provide those customers. So that 1.95 is on both Power Technologies, IGBT or silicon and silicon carbide.

Speaker 2

As far as the ramp, look, they'll be ramping in tandem together. But the automotive number given the TAM in automotive will just ramp to a higher number. But as far as percent ramp, They're both going to be ramping. If you recall, last year we talked about how that business ramped 70% Growth for the last 2 years. So it's pretty healthy growth, but from a dollar, of course, it's going to trail the automotive Purely because of the TAM of the market that we're addressing.

Speaker 2

But both growth, both CAGR are very healthy and will remain healthy over the next 5 years as we execute those LTS days.

Speaker 3

Yes. And on the performance, the financial performance of the silicon carbide business, Look, we're extremely proud of what the team has accomplished there, doubling gross margins quarter over quarter, achieving the first Profitable quarter, again, on a fully loaded basis. And operating margins in the high teen percentage, it's very impressive For the performance there, what I would tell you is we have line of sight to that. It's ahead of schedule because we are ramping well and on all metrics We're ahead of plan. So, although we have line of sight to profitability, we've achieved it quicker than what we was in our original plan.

Speaker 3

So I think as we go forward, we'll continue to see that And as revenue grows that will continue to contribute to the bottom line.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Thad. Congrats again, guys.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Borkalter with TD Cowen.

Speaker 11

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the results. I did want to follow-up on the last one. So You mentioned in the prepared remarks, I think it's high teens operating margin for silicon carbide. Any way to disaggregate the levels internal substrates versus external?

Speaker 11

And should we expect as you ramp internal substrates over the coming quarters, should that continue to move higher? Because I would imagine at Initially, it would be a it could be a headwind to margins. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, we're not breaking up As you know what it is, you can take it as an aggregate, totally mix adjusted is what the number is. And It's going to keep going up of course as that business absorbs the startup costs because look there's still startup costs in that business. So as we scale that business, start up costs will be more absorption and that is how we will be continuously improving the gross margin trajectory, which consequently will improve the operating margin. So that financial milestone that we have Achieved is not the destination, it's just a milestone.

Speaker 2

We've always had line of sight to it. Like Thad said, we achieved it earlier than we expected, But the ramp or the call it the slope of that improvement will just continue from here and we'll continue to improve on all financial metrics as that business scales And as that mix changes.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thank you for the color. I'm going to try to ask a question that involves the other 80% of your business now. East Fishkill headwinds for 2 quarters in a row have come in higher than anticipated. Can Can you walk us through just what's going on there?

Speaker 11

Why are they higher for longer? And should we expect it to sort of trough In the beginning part of 2024, is that the right timeframe? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think if you go back to what we disclosed And what we announced last quarter, it's very consistent, right? We got a surprise in the cost structure there. We've now been spending 6 months Really getting our arms around it and understanding what we need to get that cost structure back in line. Look, we've got a large manufacturing footprint.

Speaker 3

We know how to run fabs efficiently. We benchmark. We know exactly what we need to do. As I say, this is like blocking and tackling of what we need to do to The cost structure out, but it takes time. It's hard to take cost out when you're running a fab at full capacity.

Speaker 3

So the time horizon It's a little bit longer than we expected. It will be for the next several quarters. I think you can think about this as being probably a year or maybe slightly more than a year of Headwind for us as we continue to take the cost out, but we expect by the time we exit 2024, we've got that fab at parity and running efficiently.

Speaker 2

But one thing I would also highlight is, yes, the headwinds are higher than we expected. But to use your words, If you look at all the other operational metrics that we've delivered reflected in the reported gross margin and the guide, We're able to absorb it and then some given the beat this quarter and the rates for next quarter. So back to Thad's point, We know how to fix this stuff. We've been fixing it for the last 2 years. That's just another thing we're going to work on.

Speaker 2

We have line of sight. It's just going to take time. But of course, the rest of our business is operating in stellar, including the underutilization that we've had to do. So our margin is structurally very different from what it used to be and that I can say I'm very, very comfortable, happy and confident about.

Speaker 11

Understood. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton With Needham.

Speaker 6

Hi, Son and Thad, congratulations on the nice results. Thad, I guess I Wanted to see if you could give us a little bit more color on the gross margin. Revenues trending up, sounds like SIC margins are moving higher. So just wondering, are there any particular headwinds in the Q3 for the 40 basis point decline in gross margin at the midpoint?

Speaker 3

Yes. Look, so we've got a number of things, right? We just talked about EFK. So clearly, that's a headwind. You've got utilization dropped down slightly In Q2 from 71% to 70%.

Speaker 3

As we look forward, we think about utilization being kind of in that Flat to down category, so we may have a little more headwind on that. But the key contributor to that margin stepping down just slightly Is the ramp of silicon carbide. So even though the margins have doubled, it's still dilutive to the corporate average. So as revenue increases, you have more of a dilutive impact on Q3. So I would think quarter over quarter really the delta is a little bit more underutilization charge and then this impact of the ramp of silicon carbide.

Speaker 6

Great. And just a quick follow-up. Do you expect quarter to quarter the SIC margins to improve, understanding they're still below Corporate average?

Speaker 2

Yes, absolutely.

Speaker 6

Perfect. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

Speaker 10

Hi, thanks. Do you have any update to the $4,500,000,000 LTSA from 20

Speaker 2

Yes. No, we're not giving an update. Our focus right now is obviously, this year we'll be given an outlook on 2024 as we get For reporting of the Q4, given the run rate and where we are, of course, we have the number in LTSAs, But we're not talking about it yet. We're not guiding for it. It will be substantially higher than where it is in 2023 Given the LTSAs and the RAM, but right now, we're focusing on the execution in the short term.

Speaker 10

Great. And then Hassan, how do you think about the captive versus external mix? You did say you're going to be more than 50% this year. But When you sort of lay this out longer term, how do you weigh where you want to take that number to longer term given some of the investments that some others are making Particularly in China, is there like an upper range of where you want to push that 75% or how do you sort of think about balancing that? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, there are multiple factors of how we balance it. Our focus is to be able to support our customers. When we have LTSAs and we Look at supply resilience and supply assurance, we have to be able to manage the 2. We're not going to be we don't want to be 100% internal.

Speaker 2

I've said that in the past. You can think about it 80% give or take and that's going to be dependent on of course supply assurance, especially as You can't ignore the geopolitical aspect of it when you say sourcing out of China, right? That is not a supply assurance As we stand today with the geopolitical environment. So that of course has to play a role and more importantly is the cost. We have a factory.

Speaker 2

We have a factory at scale and we have a factory that is performing very, very well. So for us to want to get supply from the outside, it has to make also economic sense compared to what we're able to do internally. So all of these, we always consider that we always look at what the scenario is going to be. But you can think about it as 80%, give or take depending on all of these factors that I mentioned.

Speaker 10

Thank you, Hassan.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you. This is Jeremy on for Tori. I guess a couple of follow ups on the earlier questions on the co investments. Can you help us understand what the mechanics of this are, the impact potentially to gross margins, maybe cash flows?

Speaker 7

I'm just Wondering how the $40,000,000 or the $250,000,000 co investments can be played out in the financial statements? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So as we this is Thad. So as we receive the cash from customers, obviously, that goes on the balance sheet. The way that it gets accounted for is, it gets amortized over the life of the agreement. So if you think about An LTSA that maybe have 5 to 10 years, you can think about that dollar amount getting amortized over the life as those products are shipped, it actually is recorded through revenue.

Speaker 3

So There's a bump in margin over that timeframe. But you can think about the cash coming in advance as we make payments going out. Hopefully, it's favorable from a cash flow standpoint. That's the intent, that we get cash before we make the commitment to the equipment. And again, just as a reminder, all of the capacity that we're bringing on is to support these LTSAs and this committed revenue.

Speaker 3

So we're not building capacity on the hope that we can fill it. So in these situations, as Hassane mentioned earlier, these customers are co investing for assurance of supply with us. But the accounting works that it Actually hits the revenue line over time.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up to that. So this is like a revenue prepayment. It's not any kind of ownership of the equipment.

Speaker 7

And are there any limitations Maybe if it's specific to the equipment, it's not any limitation on being able to use that for other customers.

Speaker 3

Yes, every situation is a little bit different. What I just described there is a prepayment, right. If you think about it, a customer deposit. We do have situations where customers will consign product or equipment to us. In that situation, it is a little It's just a lower depreciation off of our books and that sits on their books.

Speaker 3

But every situation is a little bit different depending on the customer situation. Obviously, we want as much flexibility as we can have as we develop these things. So we try not to tie up capacity for 1 customer and have The ability to move our production on any of the lines on any of the locations. So it's designed to have the ultimate flexibility for us.

Speaker 7

Great. And one last question, if I could. With the slightly Different free cash flow results this quarter and the high teens and the capital intensity that seems to be consistent With your targets outlined in the Analyst Day, is there any change to that in the very long term, the 2027 targets? Are you seeing anything in terms of higher costs? And also maybe in terms of the Ability to achieve the headcount you need to ramp this capacity, it seems like that's been a problem with some of the other fab ramp ups That we're seeing around the world, is this something that is of concern to you guys at this point?

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. No, I don't think we're I mean outside the norm, I don't think we're seeing a labor shortage, right? And part of this is leveraging our Brownfield investments And Brownfield footprint where we have headcount. In terms of the capital intensity, no change to the long term plan. This is more of a short term.

Speaker 3

As I said, the free cash flow will go back to positive for the remainder of this year. So it's really just the timing of getting that equipment in as well as the Ramping of our strategic inventory to support our fab transitions and our silicon carbide ramp. But longer term, our capital intensity Targets all remain the same. We think we'll be in the mid to high teens for the foreseeable future, but then stepping down over time as we've outlined previously.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank Congrats on the great results and outlook. Hassan, at the Analyst Day, you discussed your emerging products in digital power control. I think that is likely related to servers that are focused on AI. Maybe you can confirm that understanding and also remind us of Targets and traction towards that?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, obviously, part of that focus on What we call drivers and controllers is the server or the cloud infrastructure, which applies definitely to AI. That's the play we have there. But most of it is also targeted towards our primary markets, the auto and industrial. With every switch or Call it silicon or silicon carbide switch, we have the opportunity with the flywheel effect that Sudhir talked about to increase that content.

Speaker 2

We're on track there. From a technology perspective, we Have already some of the products for internal, I guess, performance. And we will be making progress Sampling come early next year. So very fast progress. It's like what you saw us do in silicon carbide.

Speaker 2

We're going to we decided, we're doubling down, we're starting to run and we're going to start delivering on that. That's going to be the winning formula for this new business also. So stay tuned for more updates as we get into Q4 or Q1 of 'twenty four.

Speaker 10

Great. And then a follow-up, if I can. You've reiterated many of the Goals around the ramp of Silicon Carbide today, but there's one I'm not sure I heard you talk about yet and that's The margin exiting the year, I think in the past, you said it will be neutral At the enterprise level, is that ready for an update? Is it possible you could do better than that or Any reason you're backing off that goal? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Well, this is Thad. No, our expectation remains the same. As I was saying earlier, Q3 is the highest dilution impact of silicon carbide just because of the ramp and again the margins being below the corporate average. We believe by the time we exit the year, we'll have those margins at the corporate average as we've stated previously.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Hassan El Khoury for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you again for joining our call. We plan to continue to put our winning formula to good use with deliberate execution and operational excellence as we continue to navigate the soft market environment. Through it all, we remain committed to delivering value for our shareholders and confident in our long term outlook of outgrowing the semiconductor market by 3 times

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Earnings Conference Call
Onsemi Q2 2023
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