Advanced Micro Devices Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 1, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the AMD Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce to you, Mitch Haws, Head of Investor Relations.

Operator

Thank you, Mitch. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and welcome to AMD's Q2 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. By now, you should have had the opportunity If you have not reviewed these documents, they can be found on the Investor Relations page of amd.com. We will refer primarily to non GAAP financial measures during this call. The full non GAAP to GAAP reconciliations are available in today's press release and slides posted on our website. Participants on today's conference call are Doctor.

Speaker 1

Lisa Su, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer And Gene Hu, our Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. This is a live call and will be replayed via webcast on our website. Before we begin, I would like to note that Gene Hu will attend the Jefferies Semiconductor IT Hardware and Communications Summit on Tuesday, August 29th And the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on Thursday, August 31. Doctor. Lisa Su will attend the Goldman Sachs 2023 Communic Assumptions and expectations speak only as of today and as such involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results differ materially from our current expectations.

Speaker 1

Please refer to the cautionary statement in our press release for more information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. With that, I'll hand the call over to Lisa. Lisa?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mitch, and good afternoon to all those listening in today. We executed well in the Q2, launching multiple leadership products, significantly expanding our AI engagements and ramping our latest Zen 4, EPYC and Ryzen product families. 2nd quarter revenue declined 18% year over year to $5,400,000,000 Sales were flat sequentially as client and data center segment growth was offset by expected declines in our gaming and embedded segments. AI customer engagements grew by more than 7 times sequentially as multiple customers initiated or expanded programs Looking at the Q2 business results, data center segment revenue of $1,300,000,000 was down 11% year over year and up 2% sequentially. Although market demand remains mixed, 4th gen EPYC CPU adoption accelerated in the quarter with revenue nearly doubling sequentially As cloud providers expanded deployments to power their internal infrastructure and public instance offerings.

Speaker 2

In cloud, 30 new AMD instances launched in the Q2 with multiple Genoa instances announced by AWS, Alibaba, Microsoft and Oracle. Genoa delivers up to 1.9 times more performance in enterprise and cloud applications and 1.8 times more performance per watt than the making it by far the industry's highest performance and most efficient server processor. As an example, AWS announced its M7A Genoa instance, which is the highest performance and best price performance general purpose x86 instance they offer. In total, there are now more than 670 AMD powered cloud instances publicly available, and we expect that number to grow 30% Nearly 900 by the end of the year, driven largely by new Genoa deployments. We also expanded our Zenforce server product portfolio in the quarter with the launches of Bergamo and Genoa X.

Speaker 2

Microsoft Azure announced the first Genoa X HPC instances that offer more than 5 times higher performance in technical computing workloads compared to their prior generation. With Bergamo, we deliver more than double the performance competitive offerings for cloud native applications, while offering full x86 software compatibility. We were excited to be joined at our launch event by Meta, where they announced plans to deploy Bergamo broadly across their global data center infrastructure to power applications including Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Looking ahead, Dell, HPE, Lenovo, Supermicro and other large server providers Are on track to begin launching their new Bergamo platforms in the Q3. In enterprise, While macroeconomic uncertainty resulted in weaker customer demand year over year, sales of EPYC Processors for enterprise Overall, pull from large enterprises continued to grow.

Speaker 2

For example, Banco de Brasil, BNP Paribas, Patronus, Uber and other large enterprises all adopted EPYC Processors in the quarter and SAP selected EPYC Processors We expect EPYC revenue to grow by a double digit percentage sequentially in the Q3 led by the expanding 4th gen EPYC CPU ramp. In addition, Ciena, our 1st EPYC processor optimized for leadership edge server and telco infrastructure is on track to launch this quarter. Turning to our broader data center business. In networking, the largest cloud providers expanded their adoption of Pensando DPUs in the quarter, highlighted by new deployments with Alibaba and Oracle Cloud. In supercomputing, EPYC and Instinct Processors continue to be the solutions of choice The most powerful supercomputers in the world powering 121 of the fastest systems on the latest top 500 list And 7 of the 10 most efficient systems on the Green 500 list.

Speaker 2

In AI, we made strong progress in the 2nd quarter as we met key hardware and software milestones to address the growing customer pull for our data center AI solutions. Our AI strategy is focused on 3 areas. 1st, deliver a broad portfolio and multi generation roadmap of leadership GPUs, CPU's and adaptive computing solutions for AI inferencing and training. 2nd, extend the open and proven software platform we have established that enables our AI hardware to be deployed broadly and easily. And third, expand the deep and collaborative partnerships we have established across the ecosystem To accelerate deployments of AMD based AI solutions at scale, we delivered on all three fronts in the second quarter.

Speaker 2

On the software and partnership side, Hugging Face announced plans to optimize thousands of their models for AMD Instinct, Ryzen, EPYC, To make it easier for developers to tap into the full performance and features of our AI hardware, We delivered a significant performance and feature update in our latest RockM software and expanded support for AMD Silicon across the leading frameworks, including PyTorch, TensorFlow, Onyx and technologies like OpenAI Triton. We are receiving positive feedback on the improvements And the new capabilities of our latest Rockham software stack from our AI customers and ecosystem partners. As an example, leading AI software Mosaic ML recently highlighted that our Instinct Mi 250 Accelerator delivers competitive training performance With minimal or no changes to the underlying AI software. On the hardware side, We announced our new Instinct Mi300X GPUs designed to be the world's most advanced accelerators for generative AI. Mi 300x combines our next gen cDNA3 architecture with the industry's largest memory footprint and fastest memory bandwidth.

Speaker 2

These are critical factors in AI inferencing performance. Customer interest in our Instinct Mi 300a and Mi 300x GPUs is very Hi. Engagements with top tier cloud providers, large enterprises and numerous leading AI companies significantly expanded in the quarter. We are providing early system access and sampling both products with our lead AI, HPC and cloud customers now and remain on track to launch and ramp production in the Q4. Turning to our client segment.

Speaker 2

Revenue declined 54% year over year to $1,000,000,000 Client segment revenue increased 35% sequentially As Ryzen 7,000 Series CPU sales grew significantly, led by the launches of new notebooks from the largest OEMs. We also launched new commercial offerings with our 1st Ryzen Pro notebook and desktop processors powered by our leadership Zen 4 architecture. More than 100 AMD Powered Commercial PC Platforms are on track to launch this year from HP, Lenovo and other leading OEMs as we grow this important part of our client business. We expect our client segment will grow in the Seasonally stronger second half of the year based on the strength of our product portfolio and increased adoption of our Ryzen 7,000 CPUs, including the ramp of our Ryzen 7,040 mobile CPUs that deliver leadership performance and energy efficiency and are the industry's first X86 Processors with a dedicated AI engine. Going forward, we see AI as a Significant PC demand driver as Microsoft and other large software providers incorporate generative AI into their offerings.

Speaker 2

We are executing a multi generational Ryzen AI Processor Roadmap, which together with our ecosystem partners will fundamentally change the PC experience. Now turning to our gaming segment. Revenue declined 4% year over year to 1,600,000,000 as higher semi custom revenue was more than offset by lower gaming graphics sales. Sequentially, segment revenue declined 10%. Semi custom SoC sales were strong in the quarter as Microsoft and Sony had healthy console demand based on improved retail availability globally and the launches of new AAA games.

Speaker 2

In gaming graphics, we expanded our Radeon 7000 GPU series in the 2nd quarter With the launch of our mainstream RX 7,600 cards for 1080p gaming. We are on track to further Expand our RDNA3 GPU offerings with the launch of new enthusiast class Radeon 7000 Series cards in the 3rd quarter. Turning to our Embedded segment. Revenue increased 16% year over year to 1,500,000,000 Sequentially, revenue declined 7% as solid demand with Industrial, Vision and Healthcare, Automotive and Broadcast customers was offset by Softness with communications customers as some operators slowed their infrastructure upgrades. We expanded our leadership adaptive computing product portfolio in Launching our new Versal Premium VP-nineteen oh two adaptive SoC with advanced chiplet packaging, The industry's largest and most performance solution for emulating and verifying next generation ASICs and SoCs.

Speaker 2

In the low end, we announced our Spartan UltraScale Plus FPGA family to address a new range of cost optimized industrial, Computer vision, healthcare and robotics applications. We also released enhanced versions of our Vivado and VITAS software platforms that make it easier for customers to develop highly performant applications for our Versal Adaptive SoCs. Embedded CPU sales grew in the quarter with the launches of new AMD powered security, storage and networking solutions from HPE, Fortinet and other leading vendors. Looking into the second half of the year, after delivering 6 quarters of very strong year over year We expect embedded segment revenue to decline in the back half of the year as lead times normalize and some customers reduce their inventory levels. We continue to be very pleased with our embedded design win momentum and in particular the growing revenue synergy opportunities we see based on our combined adaptive and embedded processing product portfolio.

Speaker 2

In summary, we executed well in the quarter against our strategic priorities. Looking at the second half of the year, we expect the PC market to grow seasonally with more normalized inventory levels across the supply chain. In the data center market, we see a mixed environment as AI deployments are expanding. However, cloud customers continue optimizing their data center compute and enterprise customers remain cautious with new deployments. Against this backdrop, we expect strong growth driven by higher 4th gen EPYC and Ryzen 7,000 processor sales and initial shipments of our Instinct Mi 300 Accelerators in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

Longer term, while we are still in the very early days of the new era of AI, it is clear that AI represents a multibillion dollar growth opportunity for AMD The across cloud, edge and an increasingly diverse number of intelligent endpoints. In the data center alone, we The market for AI accelerators to reach over $150,000,000,000 by 2027. We have increased our AI related R and D, Ecosystem enablement and go to market investments to capture a significant share of this emerging market. The strong progress we are making executing our AI roadmaps And the rapid pace at which we are expanding our ecosystem of AI hardware and software partners makes us very confident we can deliver leadership training and inference solutions powered by our Instinct, Epic, Ryzen AI, Versal and Alveo platforms for our customers and partners. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jean to provide additional color on our Q2 results and our outlook for Q3.

Speaker 2

Jean?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Lisa, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a review of our financial results for the Q2 and then provide our current outlook For the Q3 of fiscal 2023, we are pleased with our 2nd quarter results with revenue of RMB 5,400,000,000 and diluted earnings per share of $0.58 On a year over year basis, revenue declined 18% As growth in the Embedded segment revenue was more than offset primarily by lower client segment revenue. Revenue was flat compared to the Q1 as growth in both the client and the data center segments was offset by expected Clients in the Gaming and Embedded segment. Gross margin was 50%, down approximately 4 percentage points from a year ago, primarily driven by lower client segment performance, partially offset by strong embedded segment performance. Operating expenses were CNY1.6 billion, an increase of 3% year over year, primarily due to higher R and D investments.

Speaker 3

Operating income was $1,100,000,000 down $914,000,000 year over year and operating margin was 20%. Interest expense, taxes and other was $120,000,000 For the 2nd quarter, diluted earnings per Share was $0.58 compared to $1.05 in the same period last year. EPS declined on a year over year basis, primarily due to client segment performance. Now turning to our reportable segments for the 2nd quarter. Starting with the data center segment.

Speaker 3

Revenue was $1,300,000,000 down 11% year over year, mainly due to lower third Generation IPIC Processor Sales as Enterprise Demand Was Software and Inventory Levels Were Elevated at Certain MDC Customers. Data center revenue grew sequentially with strong sales of our 4th generation APAC Processors, specifically Genhua, partially offset by decline in Adaptive SoC product sales. Data Center segment operating income was $147,000,000 or 11% of revenue compared to $472,000,000 or 2% a year ago. Lower operating income was primarily due to lower revenue and increased R and D investment to support future growth. Client segment revenue was $998,000,000 down 54% year over year due to reduced processor shipment, resulting from a weaker PC market and significant inventory correction across the PC supply chain.

Speaker 3

On a sequential basis, revenue grew 35% as we ramped our Ryzen 7,000 series processors and PC market conditions improved. Client segment operating loss was $69,000,000 compared to operating income of CNY676,000,000 a year ago, primarily due to lower revenue. We expect the client segment To return to profitability in the Q3, gaming segment revenue was RMB 1,600,000,000 down 4% year over year. Semi customer revenue grew year over year, which was more than offset by lower gaming graphics revenue. On a sequential basis, gaming revenue declined 10%, in line with our expectations.

Speaker 3

Gaming segment operating income was $225,000,000 or 14% of revenue compared to Embedded segment revenue was CNY 1,500,000,000 up 16% year over year, primarily driven by strength In the industrial, patient, health care, automotive, test and the emulation market. On a sequential basis, Embedded segment revenue declined 7%, primarily due to weaker communication market demand. Embedded segment operating income was $757,000,000 or 52 percent of revenue compared to $641,000,000 or 51 percent a year ago, primarily driven by higher revenue. Turning to the balance sheet and the cash flow. During the quarter, we generated $379,000,000 in cash from operations.

Speaker 3

Free cash flow was $254,000,000 Inventory increased by $332,000,000 to support the continued ramp of advance Technology product. We expect inventory to decline as we ship this product to customers in the second half of the year. At the end of the quarter, cash, cash equivalents and short term investment was strong at RMB 6,300,000,000. Now turning to our Q3 2023 outlook. We expect revenue to be approximately RMB 5,700,000,000 plus or minus $300,000,000 an increase of approximately 2.5% year over year and Approximately 6.5% sequentially.

Speaker 3

Year over year, we expect revenue for the client segment to be up, And the data center segment to each grow by a double digit percentage and the gaming and embed segments to decline. Non GAAP gross margin to be approximately 51% non GAAP operating expenses to be approximately RMB 1.6 5,000,000,000 Non GAAP effective tax rate to be 13% and the diluted share count is expected to be approximately 1,630,000,000 In closing, I'm pleased with our 2nd quarter top line and bottom line execution. We expect our new product ramps across the data center and the client segment to drive sequential growth into the 3rd quarter. Importantly, our leadership product portfolio, data center and AI investment priorities and the financial strength position us well for long term growth. With that, I'll turn it back to Mitch for Q and A session.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gene. John, we're happy to poll the audience for questions.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

We will now be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. One moment please while we poll for questions. And the first question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay with TD Cowen.

Operator

Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Congrats on the results. I guess, Lisa, my first question is around the data center business. I think we're all across the industry observing A shift in workload and spending patterns like maybe we've arguably never seen, and your company is in a great position to participate on both sides of that on the CPU strength and obviously in the AI space.

Speaker 5

Last quarter, you had given us some metrics around potentially being able to grow your data center business by 50% in the second half of the year versus the first half. And Maybe you could give us a little bit of an update on how you're thinking about that milestone and the drivers of growth across CPU and accelerator for the back half? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Matt. Thanks for the question. So you're absolutely right. It's a very dynamic market right now in the data center. We certainly see let me go through some of the pieces.

Speaker 2

So on the positive side, we certainly see that acceleration of AI demand. From our standpoint, we see it in Couple of ways. We have a number of design wins in AI deployments as sort of the CPU that goes with GPUs as well as other accelerators, so in the head nodes, we've seen that positive on the CPU side. We've also seen Some strong interest in our Mi 250 Accelerator, which is currently shipping right now. And we see very strong pull on the Mi 300 Accelerators that are starting in the Q4.

Speaker 2

So those are the positive market dynamics as we go into the second half of the year. We also see some of the softer cloud Spend that is happening outside of AI as some of the cloud vendors are optimizing sort of their CapEx. And enterprise, I would say, is still on the weaker side. But with all of that in place, we are expecting a large ramp in the second half for our data center business and weighted towards the Q4. And we are still looking at a zip code of, let's call it, 50% plus or minus, second half to first half.

Speaker 2

So it's a lot of it's a big ramp, but When we look at all the components, I think the customer pull is certainly there and it's exciting to be in this part of the industry.

Speaker 5

Thank you for that, Lisa. I guess as my follow-up, still sticking with the data center business, your company is Aggressively trying to ramp both the hardware and the software side of the Mi 300 programs To support AI, there's been some conflicting reports as to whether all of those deployments are on time. I think you've, in the prepared script, Said, what you guys think about that. I guess my question is really around the software work and the hardware itself that you're doing with your Maybe you could give a little bit about, I guess, firstly, how the customer feedback has been on the performance of the hardware itself? And secondly, how you think the software work you're doing with your lead customers will translate into other customer deployments as we work through next year.

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, absolutely. So if I give you just some color on sort of how the customer engagements are going, there's very strong customer There's very strong customer interest across the board in our AI solutions that includes, let's call it, multiple Tier 1 hyperscalers that are sort of very forward looking in terms of how they're deploying and building AI solutions. Yes. From that aperture, we've made a lot of progress with our Rockham software stack. I'm actually there's a lot more to do, but I would say the progress that we've made We're getting lots of feedback from those lead customers.

Speaker 2

We're seeing the benefits of the optimization, so working Also on the higher level model frameworks, the work that we're doing with the PyTorch Foundation, the work that we're doing with On X, with Triton. And the key is we're getting significant real time feedback from some of these lead customers. So we're learning at a very fast pace. In terms of the feedback on performance, a number of companies have now been able to look at MI250 across a broad range of workloads And that's a good translation as you go to Mi 300 and the feedback has been quite positive. We have We're sampling either on our sort of lab systems.

Speaker 2

They're accessing the hardware or sampling in their labs. And I would say, so far, very positive. The pull is there. There's a lot of work to be done, but we feel very good about the progress Of our overall AI solutions for the data center.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Lisa.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks for Just kind of building on Matt's comments or questions, I just want to go back to kind of the implied revenue for the data center business or the back half of the year. Gene, I think last quarter you had alluded to for the full year, the expectation is still growing 10% or double digits, I should say, for the full year in the data center business. Just confirming that and I guess what I'm really trying to ask is, I guess, given the guidance of flat year over Growth in data center and 3Q, it would seem if my math is correct, you're implying a 50% or so increase Sequentially into 4Q, I'm just trying to frame exactly how you're thinking about the cadence of what 4Q looks like underpinning that expectation.

Speaker 3

Hi, Aaron. Thanks for the question. I think as Lisa just mentioned earlier, it's a very dynamic market, their puts and undertakes. We have a tremendous strong momentum with our product portfolio, but there's continued softness in Price market and also cloud optimization is still ongoing. So overall, on balance, we think year over year, Probably more like a high single digit.

Speaker 3

It's a really strong ramp, not only in Q3, right? Sequentially, it means double digit, strong double digit. And the Q4, of course, we're going to see continued sequential strong ramp.

Speaker 6

Yes. That's helpful, Gene. And then just kind of following up on that as well. I mean, how are you guys how have you guys kind Managed through with that ramp in mind, the supply chain side. I know that your manufacturing partners talked about expanding Their capacity significantly, just curious of what you're seeing as far as being able to fulfill that degree of demand as We look into not just this quarter, but into 4Q.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Erin. So we have been really investing in our supply Yes, sort of the data center growth is so strategic to us that this has been part of the strategy. So If you look at all aspects of the supply chain from the wafers to the back end capacity to some of the specific components that you need To do something of the class of Mi 300, we've worked with the entire supply chain. We feel that we have ample supply for an aggressive ramp in the Q4 and into 2024, but this is certainly one of the areas that we spent quite a bit of time to ensure that we do have that confidence.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Erin.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thank you so much for taking the question. My first one is on the data center business as well. I just wanted to follow-up on sort of the Q3 to Q4 dynamic. And I do apologize if I missed this.

Speaker 7

But in the implied growth rate in data center in Q4, Can you speak to what percentage of that is supercomputing? I think there's a big project that's slated to ship in Q4. And is there any contribution from the Instinct series outside of supercomputing as well? Or is it primarily your server CPU franchise?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Toshiya. Thanks for the question. So, as Jean said, into the Q3, we expect double digit Sequential growth in data center, that's primarily EPIC. So that's primarily the Zen 4, let's call it, the combination of Genoa Bergamo as that continues to ramp. As we go into the Q4, there is an implied significant ramp in revenue.

Speaker 2

I think there are multiple components to that. So there is The server CPU side will continue to ramp as we see Zen 4 ramp. There is a sort of large, I'll call it lumpy supercomputer wins, so our El Capitan win will be in the Q4, primarily with a little bit in the Q1. And then we will have contribution from both Mi 300X going to large AI customers as They start their initial ramps, as well as Mi 250s, with a number of customers who have now view that As a very good option for some of the workloads that are not necessarily the largest language models or the largest parameters, but let's call it more sort of the other AI workloads. So those are the components The of the Q4 sort of implied a growth, lots of pieces to it, but clearly, A big piece of it is the Mi 300 ramp.

Speaker 7

That's helpful. Thank you, Lisa. And then shifting gears a little bit, follow-up question on Client side, you talked about the business returning to profitability in Q3, which is great, but you're still well below where you were in Call it 20%, 30% operating margins there? And do you have any cost initiatives ongoing to get you back to that level of profitability in clients? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Maybe let me start and then maybe Jean can add some comments. So look, I think the PC business has been sort of Fairly volatile over the last number of quarters from the pandemic highs to some of the inventory digestion that we were all dealing with. I can say that I'm pleased to say that I think the growth that we're seeing that we saw here in the second quarter and that we see in the second half The strength of our product portfolio, I think the Ryzen 7,000 Series is doing well. There's good customer pull.

Speaker 2

I think from a competitive dynamic standpoint, the business is always competitive, but we feel good about the most important thing That was a little bit of a drag on operating margins was the revenue being low as well as some of the We had a case where the sell in was below consumption as we were normalizing inventory levels in the supply chain. As we get past that, what we see is, I think the client business continues to grow. We believe that Client will grow into 2024 as well. In terms of some of the cost initiatives, we have been, let's call it optimizing sort of the overall But maybe I'll let Jean comment some more.

Speaker 3

Yes. On the OpEx side, the team has done a great job during this process to really Optimize the investment in client segment to be more efficient and effective. If you look at the overall company level, our OpEx It has been largely flattish, but we are investing in AI, data center and the strategic priorities we We have, which generate a much higher return on investment. So we have optimized it. We feel pretty good about this level of operating To continue to invest in client segment, as Lisa mentioned, it's really about revenue.

Speaker 3

The model we'll leverage to generate We should be able to get back to 20%.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Good to see the quarter over quarter inflection in your Epic business targeted at enterprise customers. I think you did mention Continued muted environment in enterprise, but the team continues to drive share gains with global corporations, ramping Genoa. Are you anticipating your Your enterprise segment to contribute to the strong second half growth profile of your data center business?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question, Harlan. Look, Enterprise business is very strategic to us. We feel that we're underrepresented. It's a place that we're putting more resources because, Again, when we look at the value proposition of Genoa and the entire sort of Zen 4 portfolio, we think it plays very well into the enterprise.

Speaker 2

So pleased to see the growth in the second quarter. We do believe that we're on a path to continue to grow into the second half of the year and beyond. And the key here is also investments in some of the go to market activities. So investing in more sort of business development folks That can call directly on these enterprise customers together with our OEM partners and ensure that our value proposition is very well understood.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Thank you. And then on the accelerated compute side, general purpose compute demand might be Muted in China, but there's a significant amount of unmet demand for accelerated computing this region. I know there were Performance thresholds put in place last year, maybe U. S.

Speaker 8

Government might lower that performance threshold again soon, I'm not sure, but let's say barring that, right, Has the team looked into developing China specific SKUs of your Mi250 or your new Mi300 platforms? It seems like the opportunity here Quite large.

Speaker 2

Yes, Harlan. Look, China is a very important market for us, certainly across our portfolio. As we think about certainly the accelerator market, our plan is to of course be fully compliant with For controls, but we do believe there's an opportunity to develop product for our customer set in China That is looking for AI solutions and we'll continue to work in that direction.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Lisa.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Harlan.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Thank you for taking my question. The first one, just a clarification. Would it be reasonable to assume that your GPU accelerator sales It could be about say 500 ish 1000000 this year, so about 7%, 8% of data center sales. And if that is the right number, Does it mean your server CPU sales are effectively flattish year on year this year?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, Vivek, I don't know that I would go into quite That granularity, what we will say is the GPU sales in the first half of the year were very low As we were sort of in a product transition timing, as we go into The second half of the year, in particular, the Q4, will have Mi 300 ramp. I think your number may be a little bit high in terms of the GPU sales. But overall, in general, I think our expectation is that, as Gene said, the data center business, given all of the market dynamics, We see it up high single digits year on year. We see much better second half compared to first half.

Speaker 2

And I think the product portfolio and the ramp of Genoa and Bergamo as well as the ramp of MI300 are key components of the second half ramp.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Lisa. And for my follow-up, just kind of a broader question on AI accelerators in the commercial market, so I'm excluding the supercomputing, the El Capitan projects, etcetera. What is the AMD specific edge in this market? There are already strong and established kind of merchant players. There are a number of ASIC options.

Speaker 9

A number of your Traditional competitors, Intel and others and several startups are also ramping. So my question is, what is AMD's specific niche In this market, what is your value proposition and how sustainable is it? Because you're just starting to sample the product now. So I'm trying to Can you get some realistic sense of how big it can be and what the specific kind of niche and differentiation is for AMD in this market?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Vivek. So I think, maybe let me take a step back and just talk about sort of our investments in AI. So our investments in AI are very broad. And I know there's a lot of interest around data center, but I don't want us to lose track of the investments on the edge as well as in the client. But to your question on what is our value proposition in the data center, I think what we have shown is that we have Very strong capability with supercomputing as you've mentioned.

Speaker 2

And then as you look at AI, There are many different types of AI. If you look across training and inference, sort of the largest language models and what drives some of the performance in there. When we look at Mi300, Mi300 is actually designed to be a highly flexible family of products That looks across all of these different segments. And in particular, where we've seen a lot of interest is In the sort of large language model inference. So Mi 300x has the highest memory bandwidth, has the highest memory capacity.

Speaker 2

And if you look at that inference workload, it's actually a very it's very dependent on those things. That being said, we also I believe that we have a very strong value proposition in training as well when you look across those workloads and the investments that we're making not just Today, but going forward with our next generation Mi 400 series and so on and so forth, we definitely believe that we have a very Competitive and capable hardware roadmap. I think the discussion about AMD, frankly, has always been about the software roadmap. And we do see a bit of a change here on the software side. Number 1, we've put a tremendous amount of resource on it.

Speaker 2

So bringing together our former Xilinx software team together with the AMD sort of base software team, we've Dramatically increased resources. And also the focus has now been on sort of optimizing at these higher level models. So if you think about the frameworks around PyTorch and Triton and Onyx, I think many of the new AI centric companies are actually And they're working very closely with us. So in this place where AI is tremendously exciting, I think there will be multiple winners And we will be first to say that there are multiple winners, but we think our portfolio is actually fairly unique in the sense that we do have CPUs, GPUs, we have the accelerator technology with Ryzen AI on the PC side as well as In the embedded side with our Xilinx portfolio. So I think it's a pretty broad and capable portfolio.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Lisa.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to first go back to the Q4 data center guide. So if I do my math right, It's something like $700,000,000 sequentially in data center from Q3 to Q4. So how much of that is Mi 300 versus CPU?

Speaker 10

And given the lumpiness of the El Capitan piece, what does that imply for the potential seasonality into Q1 as most of it rolls off?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. So it is a large ramp, Stacy, into the Q4. I think the largest piece of that is the Mi 300 ramp, But there is also a significant component that's just the EPYC processor ramp with, as I said, the Zen 4 portfolio. In terms of the lumpiness of the revenue and where it goes into 2024, let me give you kind of a few pieces. So, I think there was a question earlier about how much of the MI300 revenue was AI centric versus, let's call it, supercomputing centric.

Speaker 2

The larger piece is supercomputing, but it's meaningful revenue contribution from AI. As we go into 2024, our So we would expect early deployments as we go into the first half of twenty twenty four and then we would expect more volume in the second half of twenty twenty four as those things fully qualify. So it is going to be a little bit lumpy as we get through the next few quarters, but our visibility is such There are multiple customers that are looking to deploy as soon as possible and we're working very closely with them to do the Co engineering necessary to get them ramped.

Speaker 10

I mean, the like of the $700,000,000 is like $400,000,000 of El Capitan or is $100,000,000 or $300,000,000 like how big is the El Capitan piece?

Speaker 2

You can assume that the El Capitan is several 100,000,000.

Speaker 10

Several hundred. Okay. So my follow-up, just gross margins I mean, they still kind of missed in the quarter. I know they rounded up to 50%, but they were 49.7%. I know you got 51 for Q3.

Speaker 10

Jean, where do you see gross margin sitting like in Q4 as we exit the year?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think the gross margin is For us, the primary driver as we discussed in the past, it's really mix. And if you look at our guidance or outlook of Q3 Gross margin of 51%, it's more than 1 percentage point improvement sequentially Despite of very significant headwind from embedded business declining in Q3. So The data center and the client business are expected to grow double digit sequentially and provide a positive impact on the gross margin, which actually more than offset the headwind from embedded business. So going into Q4, again, we're not guiding Q4.

Speaker 3

And It's going to depend on mix. I would say one thing is you will have similar dynamics, right? Data centers, we expect to grow very significantly. At the same time, we're going to have the same headwind from embedded business declining sequentially. So overall, we do expect the gross margin to improve from this level going forward.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. You've talked about the embedded business declining as you move into the second half. Can you give us a sense for how much and is that decline a function of the cloud infrastructure market or are you seeing weakness beyond that part of the market.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Joe. Thanks for the question. So look, when When I look at the embedded business, I think we should start by remembering that we're coming off of 6 quarters of very strong growth. I mean, this business has performed extremely well and very pleased with the overall momentum in the business. To your exact question of what we're seeing in the markets, we're actually Seeing the core markets hold up pretty well.

Speaker 2

So let's call it, Aerospace and Defense, strong Industrial Vision and Healthcare, strong Test and Emulation, strong. We are seeing communications weakness, so that is the primary driver of the second half commentary. And there's also some inventory optimization as you might expect since our lead times have come down over the last several months. So in terms of zip code, I would say think of it as double digit down sequentially in the 3rd quarter and That's the current view that we have. But overall, the business has been extremely strong for us.

Speaker 2

So I think this is Yes. So an expected decline as we come off the cycle.

Speaker 4

Great. And any sense for beyond this quarter, Since we've asked you so many Q4 questions already today, but any sense for is that kind of the bottom level or do you expect there to be some continued contraction?

Speaker 2

As Jean would say, we're not guiding for the Q4, but I think you should expect embedded sort of in that Similar zip code? Yes. That's what

Speaker 11

I would say.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Thanks a lot. Gene, my first question is on Inventory, you said it's going to come down a bit as you ramp into the Q4. Obviously, you have a big Q4. Can you sort of shape that out for us? Before this, normalized inventory days were kind of 90 to 100 days.

Speaker 11

Where do you think you're going to exit Q4 in terms of

Speaker 3

Yes. Tim, thanks for the question. I think as we ramp those product lines In Q3 and Q4, you will see inventory come down first in Q3 and in Q4 again. I think the inventory days of inventory probably will be around 110 to 120 days. The key thing is right, if you look at a lot of our product, they are like advanced process technology, 5 nanometer, 4 nanometer, 6.

Speaker 3

The manufacturing cycle tend to be long. So in the longer term, You should expect us from days of inventory be more around 100 to 120 days versus traditionally like 80 days

Speaker 11

Thanks a lot. And then my follow-up is for you, Lisa. So I mean if you kind of add up the units, the Customer interest, I mean, you can easily get to several 100,000 units, it seems to me for the Mi300X next year. So the question really is on the supply chain and particularly cohost. Do you think that's going to be a bottleneck for you?

Speaker 11

I know that they've They've been expanding capacity. I know you've been trying to procure more there. Can you sort of talk about that? And sort of do you think that supply could become a limiting factor for you next year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, absolutely. So I'm not going to comment on the exact units, but what I will say is that we've been Focused on the supply chain for Mi 300 for quite some time, it is tight. There's no question that it's tight in the industry. However, we have sort of commitments for significant capacity across the entire supply chain. So COOS is Piece of it, high bandwidth memory is another piece of it, and then just the general capacity requirements.

Speaker 2

And Look, our goal is to make this a significant growth driver for AMD. I think it's a great market opportunity. We love the engagements with customers And it's our responsibility to provide the supply for the demand. And so that's what we've been working on.

Speaker 11

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 9

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with SIG. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. And more on the Mi-three hundred opportunity That you guys called out as a multibillion dollar growth opportunity. I was wondering if perhaps you could Put a timeframe around that multibillion dollar opportunity, but more specifically, Have you guys ported over Mi 300 LLMs to Mi 300? Have you looked at the performance?

Speaker 12

How do they perform? Are you excited about that? And then in terms of hyper Scale uptake, is it the X version, the GPU only version that you expect to be the biggest seller here? And have you had any semi custom kind of configurations here that potentially might even include an FPGA or Other kind of Lego movements on the Mi 300? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. So there were a lot of aspects to that question, Chris. So let me try to give you some framework here. I don't think we're ready to talk about timing yet of revenue numbers. What we will say is, we do believe it's a multibillion dollar opportunity.

Speaker 2

I think 2024 is a very important year for us. Ramping Mi 300 in multiple customers Is sort of in over the next several quarters is very important. I think I mentioned earlier in the Q and A That the customer interest is actually diverse, which is great. It includes sort of the what you would expect in terms of the large Tier 1 hyperscalers. But I think the sort of these new class of sort of AI focused companies have been working very closely with us.

Speaker 2

And then some of the large enterprises are also looking at ramping up their efforts. The performance That we see is strong. I think the large language model work that we've done, we've done a lot of it on Mi 2 50 and we've seen very good results. That's on both training as well as inference. I think as we go through Mi 300, again, the early results are strong.

Speaker 2

The for AI applications, What we're seeing now is Mi 300X, so let's call it the GPU only version, is the one that is sort of Most prevalent in the AI customer engagements, but the Mi 300A actually, which is sort of where we have the CPU and the GPU more closely coupled together, It's also of interest. So I think the key is, I think we've built a platform that does allow people to kind of Choose what is best for the models and for the workloads that they're trying to enable. And that's what we're working on.

Speaker 12

Great. And just as a quick follow-up then. Ciena, telco is a market Kind of owned by your competitor there. They have a lot of software around telco. What kind of share do you think you can take in the

Speaker 2

Yes. We're excited about Ciena. I think Ciena fits again, it's as you said, it's a niche that we haven't previously We've been focused on, I think, our interactions with the telco suppliers are there. They're anxious to have Ciena Ciena is also one that we'll use for other edge applications or let's call it lower end applications that need the performance of Zen 4, but perhaps not the heavy platform that we have on the Gen one Bergamo. So we do think we're starting from a very low point, so

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 13

Hey, team. Thanks for squeezing me in. Lisa, so if the Mi 250, 300 etcetera Ramp or the revenue is mostly GPU only. What kind of an impact would that have on the AMD gross margin? Would that still be Gross margin accretive or dilutive or net neutral to your corporate gross margin?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So I think for the let me just make sure I get the statement clear. So both Mi 300A and Mi 300X We'll be part of the ramp, particularly in the Q4 and as we go into next year. For the AI Specific applications, we are more heavily weighted towards Mi 300X, just given, sort of the where the software is written.

Speaker 2

And to your question about gross margins at the corporate level, so you would we would expect that our AI business will be accretive to gross margins At the corporate level and obviously as you start the ramp, there's a little bit of learning. But overall, we expect it to be accretive to our corporate gross margins.

Speaker 8

Great. And then for my

Speaker 13

follow-up, I just had, I guess, clarification. So it sounds like most of the Mi revenue you have in the hopper right now or at least the committed revenue is LCAP. Is that true? And Do you have other, I guess, confirmed or hard orders for that? Or maybe just spend some time telling us How you're working with the customers or what it takes for them to go from, hey, we're interested to here's a purchase order?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Maybe if your question is, do we have other customers who are committed to Mi 300 other than LCAP? The answer is We have a number of customers who are actually committed. And the way these things go, actually, it's not different not very different than how a server ramp goes, right? I mean, One starts with an initial deployment, ensures that the software works, ensures that we have all The reliability and capability in the data center and then they ramp from that.

Speaker 2

I will say the difference in AI Deployments is I think customers are willing to go very quickly. There is sort of a desire and agility because we all want to accelerate the amount of AI compute that's out there. And so the speed in which customers are engaged and customers are making decisions This is actually faster than they would in sort of a normal sort of regular environment and that's great. I think that's helping us, As I said earlier, learn, perfect the software, get all of the capabilities in place for a significant ramp

Speaker 8

Thanks, Lisa.

Speaker 1

Thanks. John, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Okay. And our final question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Yes. Hey, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. Lisa, We're looking forward to an exciting second half for your company. I had a quick question on the server share.

Speaker 8

Do you think that there is a theoretical limit To the share that AMD can get, historically, initially, we heard eightytwenty was a prevailing rule, then you busted through that. Now we're hearing customers say, well, seventythirty is more like it. More importantly, are there any large vendors for your server business You have significantly more than 30% share, let's say 40% or even 50% share. And I have a follow-up.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Harsh. Thanks for the question. Look, I think the in the server business, I think the most important thing for our customers is that we have a strong road map and that it's And we've been building that sort of working model, that road map And that trust over the past 4 or 5 years. So I don't think there's any theoretical cap on AMD share. I would say, If we look today, there are multiple customers who have us deployed in their data centers at more than 50% share.

Speaker 2

And from our view, the place where we have perhaps been a bit more underrepresented is in the enterprise. And that's just a matter of sort of The breadth of enterprise customers and the breadth of enterprise software. So we believe that we have leadership today and we will very, very focused ensuring that we continue leadership in the market. And with that, there's an opportunity to continue to gain share in the server market.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Lisa. For my second one, can you help us think a little bit about the generative AI spend? Let's say, if you can cite for us some kind of metric As to how many dollars of spend today are you seeing from your customers on generative AI for, let's say, each dollar of regular server CPU spend, Is there a metric that we can think of? Is there a trend today? And where do you think it can be in a couple of years?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think Harsh, the best way to answer that and again, we're all sort of it's all crystal ball as to what's going to Over the next 4 or 5 years, there's no question that the demand for generative AI solutions is very high, And there's a lot of compute capacity that needs to put in. The way we've sized the market is it can perhaps grow at a rate of, let's call it, 50% CAGR plus or minus over the next 3 or 4 years. So that would take us to $150,000,000,000 market by the time you get 27. Now that's all accelerators in the data center, so that includes GPUs, that includes other ASICs and other accelerators.

Speaker 2

But I think we have an opportunity to address a large portion of that market. So that makes it a very clear priority for us. It's our number one strategic priority and we'll continue to work closely with our customers as they optimize between CPU and GPU spend.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Lisa.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Great, John. That concludes today's call. Thank you to everyone for joining us

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Advanced Micro Devices Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00