Deutsche Börse Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 2, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Frontdoor's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded and broadcast on the Internet. Beginning today's call is Matt Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, as he will introduce the other speakers on the call. At this time, we will begin today's call. Please go ahead, Mr.

Operator

Davis.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Frontdoor's 2nd Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Frontdoor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Kalm and Frontdoor's Chief Financial Officer, Jessica Ross. The press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the Investor Relations section of Frontdoor's website, which is located at investors. Frontdoorhome.com.

Speaker 1

There is also additional detail about our Frontdoor brand at frontdoor.com and our new mobile app that you can download in the App Store and at Google Play. As stated on Slide 3 of the presentation, I'd like to remind you that this call and webcast may contain forward looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today. These risk factors are explained in detail in the company's filings with the SEC. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements.

Speaker 1

All forward looking statements are made as of today, August 2nd, And except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We will also reference certain non GAAP financial measures throughout today's call. We have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance. I will now turn the call over to Bill Cobb for opening comments. Bill?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Matt Davis, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying we had a great Q2. I am especially excited to see that many of the headwinds continue to turn in our favor. And this was especially true for the Q2 as everything seemed to fall our way. Jessica will cover our financial results in more detail, but let me hit the highlights.

Speaker 2

In the Q2, revenue increased 7%. Gross profit increased 840 basis points to 52%. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 57 percent to $121,000,000 We repurchased $50,000,000 of stock through July, And we are raising our full year outlook for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and share repurchases. We have come a long way over the last year, And I am proud of how the team is executing across all functions. Now turning to Slide 5.

Speaker 2

While it is encouraging to see our margins start to rebound, We still have work to do on driving revenue across our 2 growth engines, the Frontdoor and American Home Shield brands. To that point, I want to use this call to provide you with a midyear update on the strategy we laid out at our Investor Day in March. First, I want to acknowledge that the home service plan category has recently been in a state of decline. We now estimate that there are about 5000000 to 6000000 active service plans in the United States, but we know there is a lot more opportunity. We continue to target a total addressable market for American Home Shield at 13,000,000 owner occupied homes.

Speaker 2

Based on our 3rd party research, we believe demand for the category was down somewhere around 10% in 2022, and we believe that the decline has accelerated through the first half of twenty twenty three. While it is disappointing for all of us that sell home service plans, we believe our overall category share has actually improved. The real challenge has been attracting new customers to our home warranty product and value proposition that has not substantially evolved over the years. As a category leader, we are committed to updating our marketing and core consumer value proposition to attract new customers. Once they become a customer, they are highly likely to stay as shown in our strong second quarter retention rates.

Speaker 2

Now turning to Slide 6 and the renewals channel, where our retention rates continue to perform well. Our overall retention rate increased While a large portion of this improvement is driven by a lower mix of real estate customers, We have also been doing some smart things on the execution front, better personalization of customer communications, Enhancing our dynamic pricing model and continuing to improve service quality. One way we have improved our customer service is from our process improvements to optimize contractor capacity and maximize use of preferred contractors. This not only provides us with a lower cost of service, but it also results in a higher quality customer experience. During the Q2, our deployment of preferred contractors increased to approximately 84% versus 82% a year ago.

Speaker 2

As a result of all these efforts, we are seeing clear progress. Customer 5 star ratings of contractors are now at a decade high with 1 star ratings at an all time low. Now turning to Slide 7 in our real estate channels. The National Association of Realtors or NOR recently came out with housing market statistics for June. Existing home sales declined 23% during the first half of the year.

Speaker 2

This closely correlates with the decline we are seeing in our real which is highly dependent on the overall real estate environment. Further, it was reported that only 14 homes out of 1,000 changed hands in the first half of the year, the lowest rate in a decade. Inventory remains tight at 3.1 months of supply, which contributed to driving median home prices up to $410,000 Prices are rising because there is more demand than supply and we are seeing bidding wars come back in certain markets. In fact, some homeowners are reluctant to move because they have a substantially lower mortgage rate than the current market of nearly 7%. In short, the resurgence of a strong sellers market continues to delay the transition to a more balanced buyer seller environment.

Speaker 2

While we believe that the housing market will eventually become more conducive for us to sell a home warranty, It is taking longer than we expected. Now moving to Slide 8. Last quarter, I discussed some of the challenges facing our DTC channel. This includes the impact of changing consumer behavior due to evolving macroeconomic conditions, higher price sensitivity for home service plans And reduced marketing spend. Let me be clear, growing our DTC demand is our Top focus as we head into the back half of this year.

Speaker 2

To that end, we have several work streams to reenergize this channel. First, we are optimizing our discounting strategy. We have been testing into various discounts, and I am pleased to report that we are seeing some positive results As our sales are coming in higher than our original plan. 2nd, we are increasing our marketing investment. Given that the Frontdoor brand has generated such substantial consumer awareness, we are now able to reallocate $20,000,000 to the American Home Shield brand.

Speaker 2

When including the $10,000,000 increase we made in the Q1, total DTC marketing spend is up $30,000,000 compared to our original plan. This means that we are now virtually flat on our DTC marketing investment on a year over year basis. Now longer term, we know we need to And enhance the AHS brand to reevaluate our core value proposition so that we can engage more consumers in new and compelling ways. This is exactly what Kathy Collins and her team are working on as we speak to bring some of that front door brand marketing magic to American Home Shield. More to come here, which includes conducting extensive consumer and competitive research, evaluating product improvements And finding ways to better connect our offerings with consumers.

Speaker 2

Now let's turn to Slide 9 of the web deck where I'll dive into more details on the Frontdoor brand strategy. Just a quick reminder that we previewed the Frontdoor brand at our Investor Day on March 2. We launched the brand on April 11, and then on June 6, we launched Frontdoor Premium. I want to start by highlighting our on demand services, which Total $20,000,000 in the 2nd quarter. This is higher than we first anticipated when we decided to pursue HVAC upgrades at the start of the year.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, an HVAC upgrade is when we partner with our preferred contractors and leverage our scale to sell new HVAC units to our existing members at a steep discount. We are now targeting approximately $45,000,000 of revenue from our Frontdoor Pro on demand home services in 2023. Now I'd like to turn to the Frontdoor marketing campaign, which has been a tremendous success in driving consumer brand awareness. As of today, the app has been downloaded nearly 150,000 times, significantly exceeding our original expectations. Additionally, we have received consistently positive customer feedback, including rave reviews on the video chat with an expert feature and the easy to use app.

Speaker 2

In all my years around marketing, I have never seen awareness of a new brand take off like this and just 4 months after launching. Said another way, we drove a sizable level of awareness at a much lower price and in a much shorter timeframe than originally planned. As a result, we are now able to reallocate that $20,000,000 of marketing spend to help drive DTC sales Within our American Home Shield brands. As I mentioned at our Investor Day, we want the flexibility to invest Across both the Frontdoor and American Home Shield brands. This allows us to optimize where our marketing dollars are being invested, Which is exactly what we are doing with you which is exactly what we are doing now.

Speaker 2

But let me be very candid with you. Despite extremely strong brand awareness, Convergent to paid membership services has not been what we anticipated. We are working to address this by developing a robust strategy to monetize that high consumer awareness into paid services, And we look forward to sharing more about where we are going next quarter. We remain very bullish about the new Frontdoor brand. Our research shows there is significant untapped consumer demand.

Speaker 2

The number of downloads is a strong validation of the opportunity And now we just need to do a better job of unlocking the revenue potential. Before I hand it over to Jessica, let me briefly summarize where we are. We had an exceptionally strong Q2 performance and we are raising our full year outlook across the board. On the operational front, we are improving execution. The previous cost headwinds we saw last year have largely turned and we have had some extremely favorable trends driving gross margins higher.

Speaker 2

But to be clear, we still have much work to do. While consumer awareness at Frontdoor has been tremendous, we need to be better at converting app downloads into actual revenue. On the DTC front, we understand the challenges there as well and are deep into making significant improvements to get this channel back on track. This is our top focus in the back half of the year. I will now turn the call over to Jessica to review our financial results.

Speaker 2

Jessica?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into the details, I want to highlight a few key points. As you heard from Bill, we had an extremely strong second quarter. The midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA outlook was $85,000,000 and actual results came in at $121,000,000 This difference was primarily driven by exceptionally favorable weather as well as higher than expected revenue and timing of SG and A. Additionally, we had several other items fall away that resulted in stronger financial performance than anticipated.

Speaker 3

It is also important to highlight that our full year outlook Takes into account the recent hot weather trends and assumes higher customer incidence rates in the back half of the year. I will now dive into our Q2 financial results on Slide 10 of the web deck. Let's start at the top of our income statement, Our 2nd quarter revenue increased 7% versus the prior year period to $523,000,000 This was driven by a 9% increase in price, which more than offset a 2% decline in volume. On Slide 11, 2nd quarter revenue from our renewals channel increased 15% as a result of our prior pricing actions flowing through. Real Estate revenue decreased 25% and DTC revenue decreased 11% as a result of lower volume.

Speaker 3

Other revenue increased 32%, driven by growth in our on demand home services, primarily our HVAC upgrade program that Bill just mentioned. Now let's turn to Slide 12. Gross profit for the quarter increased 28% to $270,000,000 Our gross profit margin increased 840 basis points to 52%. This improvement was driven by higher realized price, A lower number of service requests per customer, process improvement initiatives and a moderation of inflation down to 9% from 25% in the Q2 of 2022. I want to specifically highlight the impact of weather, which provided a $17,000,000 benefit in the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 3

This was driven by a 23% decline in cooling degree days versus the prior year period to the lowest level in 10 years. We also saw a similar decline in our HVAC claims due to cooler than normal weather. As a result of this favorable weather as well as process improvement initiatives, the 2nd quarter had the lowest number of service requests per customer in nearly 20 years. On Slide 13, you'll see that our higher gross margin flow through to net income, which more than doubled to $70,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA improved $44,000,000 to 121,000,000 Let's now move to the table on Slide 14, and I'll provide more context for the year over year improvement in 2nd quarter adjusted EBITDA. Starting at the top, we had $42,000,000 of favorable revenue conversion, primarily driven by our pricing initiatives, partly offset by the decline from lower volume.

Speaker 3

Contract claims costs decreased $18,000,000 compared to the Q2 of 2022. This was comprised of the $17,000,000 benefit from favorable weather, a favorable cost development difference of $11,000,000 and the impact of process improvement initiatives. This favorability was partially offset by ongoing inflationary pressures of approximately 9%, which includes higher parts and equipment costs, an increase in contract related expenses as well as the impact of mix shift and regulatory changes. Sales and marketing costs increased $16,000,000 in the Q2, primarily related to the launch of the new Frontdoor brand. General and administrative costs increased $6,000,000 driven by investments in technology and increased labor costs and professional fees.

Speaker 3

Interest and net investment income increased $4,000,000 as a result of rising interest rates on cash deposits. And finally, customer service costs decreased $3,000,000 in the second quarter as a result of the lower number of service requests. Please now turn to Slide 15 for a review of our statement of cash flows. Net cash provided from operating activities was 100 and $15,000,000 for the 1st 6 months of the year and was primarily comprised of capital expenditures related to investments in technology. Net cash used for financing activities was $44,000,000 through June and was comprised of share repurchases as well as scheduled debt payments.

Speaker 3

I would also like to mention that we repurchased approximately $16,000,000 of stock in July, bringing the total amount of Share repurchases in 2023 to $50,000,000 On Slide 16, you will see that our free cash flow was $96,000,000 for the 6 months ended June 30. We ended the 2nd quarter with $344,000,000 in cash. This was comprised of $158,000,000 of restricted net assets and unrestricted cash of $186,000,000 As a result of our strong first half performance, we are pleased to increase our full year share repurchase target to approximately $100,000,000 Now turning to Slide 17 and our Q3 and full year 2023 outlook. We expect our 3rd quarter revenues to be between $500,000,000 $515,000,000 This reflects 15% growth in the renewal channel, partially offset by a mid-twenty percent decline in the real estate channel and a roughly 50% decline in the DTC channel. 3rd quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $80,000,000 $90,000,000 an increase of 7% from the prior year period as a result of improving gross margins.

Speaker 3

This incorporates the impact of the recent hot weather in July and expectation that it will continue into August and then largely return to normal for the balance of the year. Our outlook also assumes customer service request patterns increase in the second half of the year. Now turning to our full year outlook, we are increasing our 2023 revenue range to $1,730,000,000 to $1,750,000,000 Or a 5% increase over 2022. This anticipates a low double digit increase in the renewals channel, A mid-twenty percent decline in the real estate channel and a low double digit revenue decline in the DTC channel. It also assumes other revenue will increase to approximately $60,000,000 as a result of growing on demand services.

Speaker 3

We continue to expect approximately 11% growth from higher price, which will more than offset a 6% decline from lower volume. We also expect the number of home service plans to decline in the mid to upper single digits in 2023. As a result, we continue to target ending the year with approximately 2,000,000 home service plans, including about 500,000 new 1st year customers across the DTC and Real Estate channels. We increased our full year gross profit margin outlook to be between 45.5% and 47.5%. Let me be clear.

Speaker 3

Gross margin was 49% in the first half of the year due to the Exceptional favorability I mentioned earlier. The second half gross margin outlook is below the full year range, but remains consistent with the expectations we laid out at Investor Day. This also takes into account the recent hot weather trends and higher customer incidence rates in the back half of the year. This also assumes that inflation will average approximately 9% on a Cost per service request basis and the number of customer service requests will decline 9% to approximately 4,100,000 We have seen cost improvements accelerate at the macro level for replacement units over the last several months. For example, The producer price index for HVAC declined to 7% in the 2nd quarter from 25% in the prior year period.

Speaker 3

We are seeing similar declines in buying like for like products. However, our 2023 inflation rate is expected to be 9% when adding in contractor related inflation, regulatory changes and mix shift. Our full year SG and A target is between $575,000,000 5 $190,000,000 While the midpoint has not changed since last quarter, we are reallocating approximately $20,000,000 from Frontdoor to the American Home Shield brand to drive DTC sales. As a result, our target working marketing spend for the Frontdoor brand Is now approximately $40,000,000 We spent approximately $25,000,000 in the second quarter to launch the brand and expect the remainder to be spent in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Based on these updated inputs, we are raising our full year adjusted EBITDA range by $40,000,000 to be between $260,000,000 $280,000,000 This includes stock compensation expense $30,000,000 $50,000,000 of interest income.

Speaker 3

And finally, we continue to project our full year capital expenditures to range between $35,000,000 $45,000,000 and the annual effective tax rate to be approximately 26%. In conclusion, we delivered an extremely strong Q2. We remain confident in our long term business outlook, and we continue to build a strong foundation by progressing initiatives that invest in our brand, technology infrastructure and productivity enhancements across the business. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Bill for a few final comments before we go to Q and A.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jessica. One final thing, I would like to extend a warm welcome to Doctor. Balaganesha, who just joined our Board And to Prakash Maburalla, who recently joined as Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer. Both of them will raise the bar on frontdoor's ability to leverage So operator, let's now open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank We're preparing to ask your question. Please ensure that your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo. Brian, please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, congrats on the quarter. I just wanted to dig in on the Frontdoor app. You mentioned strong download with trouble converting users to paid plans. I'm just curious if you can share any color on How users are engaging in the app?

Speaker 4

Any sense for user retention of those free users? And then lastly, wanted to double click on that point around improving conversion to paid plans. What near term levers do you have available To get users on to those plans.

Speaker 2

Okay. So let me try to absorb all that. So in terms of the app, what we're doing is obviously we introduced the brand, The campaign has been very well received, the amount of downloads, etcetera. What has happened is that we are working hard. We have not been To convert those app downloads into the revenue that we thought, which has caused us to take a look at a number of initiatives, including We just this week did a change to the registration flow that is showing early promise in terms of Being able to quickly register and become part of the front door because it goes from registration and then obviously Into the membership plans.

Speaker 2

Right now, we are working to figure out what's the best way between on demand services and membership plans But like I say, the reason I'm so encouraged by this is not only the downloads, not only the receptivity for the campaign, I want to give you a couple of a few stats, kind of the KPIs we're looking at. We do a tracking study that It has been pretty consistent since we launched this and I want to give you the latest numbers. So in this research, we only take account or Take credit for it. Anyone who responds extremely or very, and I'll talk about what the components are. So in terms of likability, and this is where someone says they really like the brand extremely or very.

Speaker 2

Brand average according to the research house that we're using across leading brands is about 70%, we're at 81%. When it comes to relevance, is this a brand that's relevant to you? The average for our brand is about 44%, where it's 65%. In terms of differentiating, this is something unique, something disruptive, etcetera. Average again, 45% where it's 60%, plus there's Over 80% interest in the concept, etcetera.

Speaker 2

So all the consumer variables and in my experience, this is going to translate into a real brand. The other thing is the user experience. And I don't know how many of you have used the video chat with an expert or whatever. We're getting extremely high marks at the ability of the experts to diagnose problems to, in many cases, aid the homeowner In terms of fixing it, so we're a little disappointed in terms of the revenue piece, but it's very early days. We're only 4 months into this, we only launched the premium product less than 2 months ago.

Speaker 2

So we're working right now to figure out What that magic is, if you will, we had a meeting with our Board last week. They're extremely supportive of this A lot of them have said they've seen this in their careers where you start out and there's such interest in the brand and just figuring out what the revenue model is. So We remain very bullish on this and more to come on this as I mentioned, but I think there's a real there there.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter from JPMorgan. Cory, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, this is Danny Feifer on for Cory Carpenter. I just have 2 quick ones. In the DTC channel, is there anything in particular that you're seeing that kind of gives you the confidence to lean in heavier with the shift in the $20,000,000 in marketing spend. And then secondly, on the 84% preferred contract For usage in 2Q, are you able to expand on how much kind of more room you have there to move that higher? Thanks.

Speaker 2

So first of all, with DTC, I think we've under invested in the AHS brand to date. And We still think and we are a big believer in the core value proposition of a warranty plan is Still very appealing to consumers. If you look at what I was talking about with the real estate numbers, with people not moving, Repairs and maintenance are not going to go away. So we still think that we have some tailwinds behind us. It's just a matter of us looking into How do we best appeal to people to get them over the line?

Speaker 2

This is a discretionary purchase with the price increases we've had to take. I think the entire industry has had There's a little bit of sticker shock. So I think as this normalizes, we feel very confident in terms of how That this can resonate and start to turn our unit count in the right direction. As far as contractor, is the 84% the limit? Of course not.

Speaker 2

We don't think it is. I don't think it will ever be 100%. With the work that we've done over the past 6 to 9 months with the contractor relations team, which has been terrific, We haven't set a specific goal. We wanted to see how things played out. That's something we'll work on in terms of what the stretch target will be.

Speaker 2

But I certainly am pleased with the 84%, but I don't think anyone with our contractor relations team is satisfied with that and they want to continue to drive that higher. Yes.

Speaker 3

I would just add on to that. From a continuous improvement perspective, we moved from the upper 70% range at the time of the spin to where we are now. And I think, as Bill shared, we've really been targeting that mid to 80% range and we're there, but we can always improve. And I just want to kind of double down to that we are very excited about our preferred contractor strategy. Just as a reminder, these contractors are very special Designation that we give across our system of contractors to both the best in terms of quality and cost efficiency, and they play a major role in both improving the member experience, as well as improving our cost structure.

Speaker 3

So very excited about the results.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Thanks, Ann. Thanks, Ann.

Operator

Our next question comes from Justin Patterson from KeyBanc. Justin, please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. This is Sergio on for Justin. Bill, I appreciate the color on increasing In the DTC marketing, and I think you said it's flat now or expected to be flat versus a year ago. I was wondering how The strategy for the DTC brand in particular has evolved to increase the ROI on that investment versus a year ago.

Speaker 7

And then Jessica, maybe one for you, just how you're thinking about the weather impact as we head into 3Q and the guide, we've All seen the headlines of extreme heat starting in July. So just curious on how you're thinking about The weather impact there and potential increase in service requests due to warm weather. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, thanks, Sergio. In terms of the ROI, it's kind of an interesting question Because you could argue that the ROI for the first half of the year was actually better because we had reduced spending, but it didn't translate into units. The thing with DTC units is it's not about the 1st year, it's not about that ROI return. It's about The LTV, the long term value up against the cost of acquisition.

Speaker 2

And generally, we have seen over time that Yes, given our strength in the renewals area that we're able to renew people into the mid to high 70s. Normally, that's about a 3x return. We don't see anything that has changed that. We just have to get more units and we have to appeal to people In an avenue where, as I said earlier, the industry has been on a decline lately. I don't think It's going to be consistent or persistent.

Speaker 2

I think it's as we normalize pricing, as people come out of really Inflation moderating, there's a need for this the value proposition has not declined. So that's why we're going to continue. We're going to invest more in the back half for the year and look to this as our number one priority as we go forward. Now with regard to the weather impact, I'll turn it over to Jessica.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Bill, and thanks, Sergio. Good to hear from you. It's been interesting from an outlook perspective. As we're thinking about our full year outlook, it's kind of the tale of 2 halves, right?

Speaker 3

So The first half of the year was extremely favorable as we shared everything fell our way, and we landed at gross margins about 49% for the first half. But To your point, as we sit here in August, we're all listening to the news. There's extremely hot weather across the United States. We don't expect that favorability to continue into the back half. So, Yes, that has kind of been absolutely baked into our outlook.

Speaker 3

It reflects hotter weather in July and continuing into August. And then as I shared earlier, I think We're going to get back to normal service request patterns in the back half of the year. I think originally we were guiding to about 4.2 for the full year With the favorability in the front half, we're looking at about 4.1, for the full year in our outlook.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you both.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Sergio.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Hughes from Truist. Mark, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Jessica, are you right in thinking that somebody has an air conditioning issue, they Call you up immediately. There wouldn't be any kind of lag in your ability to see what the claims trends are.

Speaker 8

Is that fair?

Speaker 3

Could you thank you I'm not

Speaker 2

sure I fully understand your question, Mark.

Speaker 8

Yes. The question was just around the timing of when you get the claims notification that with the extreme hot weather, The if someone's air conditioner goes, I assume you'll get notified pretty quickly that there's a Potential call.

Speaker 3

Are you kind of just talking just in terms of the claims development process? So you're absolutely right. We know Absolutely real time, the number of member reservice requests each day by trade, but we don't necessarily know the cost As to that, until the claim is the whole transaction is finalized and the claim is closed, which can take 2 to 3 months. Is that Kind of where you're going and then

Speaker 6

how we can address that? Yes.

Speaker 2

Mark, what I would say also, and if this isn't answering your question, we can probe further on this. But one of the things that happens during a time like this is an increase in service requests, Obviously, so yes, we'd love to have our preferred contractors handle every call, but that's when we have to use other contractors and that's where our costs are higher. We generally know what the preferred contractors are going to do. And that's what happens is we have to estimate the cost at the end of each quarter. So It's a little bit of a tricky formula as you try to blend the preferreds with the because we have to try to respond, especially when it comes to something like HVAC.

Speaker 2

We have to try to respond to our customers as quickly as we can. So that's another part of the equation that can get A little difficult as we try to forecast the cost.

Speaker 8

Yes, yes. It sounds like though that you've got pretty good line of sight at least in terms of frequency of claims given the hot weather and that has informed your guidance.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Jessica, why don't you talk about how we true things up?

Speaker 3

Yes. No, that's why just from a we have a very detailed process within my team. So every quarter we are looking at both all of the data that we have in terms of actual service requests. We are looking at historical data on cost, Current data on weather and performing an estimate at each quarter. And I think as you've probably seen, then we typically have either a favorable or unfavorable adjustment as the quarter.

Speaker 3

So for example, we had about $4,000,000 favorability from that true up process that really related to claims and transactions from Q4. So it's definitely something like I said, I've got a very experienced team that is running the numbers on this regularly, and we've got a very detailed process to make sure that we're getting those estimates right at period end.

Speaker 8

Right. And then the I think your revenue recognition pattern, you tend to recognize more revenue In the summer months, Q2, Q3, they correspond with claims cost, so there's more matching there. Were there any updates to that pattern this quarter that were noteworthy?

Speaker 3

No, there's been no changes. And just to kind of remind, our contact with our customers are generally 12 months in duration. So regardless of whether the cash is received upfront, which for example, in the real estate channel, the majority of that is or monthly over the contract period for D2C and renewals, We, on a contract by contract basis, recognize 1 12th of the annual contract price each month. So then subsequently, to your point, Mark, we shift the Recognition of total revenue to match the expected seasonality of claims costs, which are higher in Q2 and Q3, which typically results in lower revenue In Q1 and Q4. So, as you're thinking about also kind of the guidance that we've given, definitely take that into account and running the Q4 numbers.

Speaker 8

But no change in that seasonal pattern to speak of in Q2? Yes. Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Margaret.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ian Zaffino from Oppenheimer. Ian, please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, Chris. Thank you very much. As far as the declines in service plans that you were mentioning, Is that primarily in, you think, the real estate channel, the DTC channel? Is it in the renewal Basically, what is driving it or what area might be driving it do you think? And then also, Jessica, on the inflation, it seems like we're kind of stuck at this 9%, but it does seem like inflation is coming down.

Speaker 6

So Why still 9% or at least why no release in the back half of the year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

So let me just make sure I understood. Your first one, are you asking about the decline in service requests and where is it coming from by channel? Is that your question? Or did I initially

Speaker 6

No, I think your initial opening comments Or something to the tune of you're seeing an industry somewhat in decline. Okay. And you think it's temporary, but I'm asking you, but where is that decline most pronounced? Is it in real estate or just renewing it because of Whatever.

Speaker 2

It's more in real estate, but also in direct to consumer. So it is in those two Areas that we are seeing the softness. As you see from our renewal book, that's our renewals book, That's been very consistent and improving.

Speaker 3

Is that helpful? Yes.

Speaker 2

And then you are going to take a second.

Speaker 3

Yes, on inflation. Hey. So just as a reminder, our front door internal inflation is comprised of 3 main buckets, right? So contractor related costs, Parts and equipment and then the impact of regulatory changes and mix and from regulatory changes as things related to energy and efficiency On HVAC and Plumbing. And so while we're seeing what the rest of the world is seeing in terms of lower inflation when buying like for like Products like we talked about HVAC at 7%, think PPI for appliance is at 3%.

Speaker 3

When you add up those 3 components collectively, we're still sitting at That 9% rate, so which is what we're targeting for our full year outlook. And again, just getting to our internal process improvements, we're working hard on both the sourcing side, the contractor relations side to bring that down. But right now, we're holding with the initial inflation estimate that we gave at Investor Day.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. And if I could just sneak in one quick one more. On The Frontdoor initiative, you've seen revenues now come in. Any sense of where margins might settle out or kind of What you're targeting as far as profitability of that business versus maybe the core AHS business?

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it's the right question. It's a little early to tell as we figure out the mix of this conversion to Paid plans and the on demand piece. So we owe an answer on that. I don't think we have it at this point. We're still trying to sort through.

Speaker 2

It should be a positive impact. Obviously, on demand is a little bit different economic set. And in many cases, it's a really beneficial, especially like on HVAC upgrades, in terms of the dollar amount as opposed to the margin itself. But We're still working through that, but we're conscious of the interest in that.

Speaker 8

Okay.

Speaker 6

Thank you very

Operator

much. Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs. Eric, please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks so much for taking the question. And I think the app download success you guys have had seems to be a direct beneficiary to the marketing Shift you highlighted at the Analyst Day, a couple of quarters ago. Can we talk a little bit about how the marketing approach of the company might evolve between the elements So aiming towards brand building and driving app downloads into evolution into conversion and monetization And what that might mean in terms of both overall marketing spend and some of the targeting of where you spend those dollars as we look not only this year, but over the medium to long term? Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think we're very pleased that's why we're reallocating money to American Home Shield With the awareness building campaign, we are going to shift our emphasis over time to the conversion aspect. So I don't really have a specific in terms of what those amounts are. But beyond what as Jessica said, We'll spend roughly $15,000,000 on Frontdoor. In the back half, some of that will be in a test mode as we work through some of these revenue model pieces. But an overall $40,000,000 We're not going to comment on $24,000,000 just yet because we haven't figured out our plan for that.

Speaker 2

So We'll see what the notion is, but the idea is that we're really pleased with the awareness building campaign. We're pleased with the receptivity to the concept. Now we got to figure out how we're going to convert that into paid membership sales.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Deutsche Börse Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00