Host Hotels & Resorts Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 3, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Host Hotels and Resorts Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jamie Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, And we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward looking statements. In addition, On today's call, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDAre and comparable hotel level results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most Directly comparable GAAP information in yesterday's earnings press release, in our 8 ks filed with the SEC and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com.

Speaker 1

With me on today's call are Jim Rizzolia, President and Chief Executive Officer and Saurav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jamie, and thanks to everyone for joining us this afternoon. During the Q2, we delivered comparable hotel RevPAR improvement of 2.7% compared to the Q2 of 2022. Our RevPAR performance for the quarter came in below our quarterly guidance, primarily as a result of moderating transient demand In San Francisco and Seattle and at our resorts to a lesser extent, comparable hotel trip hard growth was 3.8% during the quarter, Underscoring the continued strength of out of room spend. During the quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $446,000,000 and adjusted FFO per share of $0.53 While our 2nd quarter, comparable hotel EBITDA of $449,000,000 was 9% below 2022. It was 9% above 2019.

Speaker 2

2nd quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 32.7% exceeded 2019. This marks the 5th consecutive quarter since the onset of the pandemic That we have achieved Trebpar, RevPAR and comparable hotel EBITDA and margins ahead of 2019 levels. Comparable hotel RevPAR for July is expected to be approximately $209 which is 2.5% above July of 2022. Our performance in the first half of the year, coupled with the macroeconomic backdrop in the second half, Let us see tighten our full year RevPAR growth guidance range to 7% to 9%, bringing the midpoint of our full year expected RevPAR growth to 8%. At the midpoint of our guidance For full year 2023, comparable hotel EBITDA is forecasted to be approximately 9% above 2019.

Speaker 2

As we look at the current macroeconomic picture, it is important to consider how our outlook has shifted over the past 6 months. As the Q2 progressed, we started to see a moderation in volume at our hotels in San Francisco and Seattle, which were already affected by softer demand. At the same time, many high end leisure travelers Took the opportunity to travel internationally and we did not see a corresponding level of international inbound demand, which impacted volume at our resorts. Against this backdrop, we were pleased to deliver positive RevPAR and TrevPAR growth for the quarter, especially given the high watermark of the Q2 of 2022. We remain optimistic About the state of travel for several reasons.

Speaker 2

1st, group business continues to improve. During the quarter, We booked over 310,000 group rooms for 2023 and total group revenue pace is now 4.2% Ahead of the same time 2019, up from 2.5% as of March and 3.2% as of April. The group booking window is continuing to extend and groups continue to spend more than contracted. 2nd, Business transient demand continued its gradual improvement during the Q2. Rates were up 10% to both 20 22 in 2019 and demand improved nearly 6% compared to the Q2 of 2022.

Speaker 2

While demand is still down 19% compared to 2019, it improved 190 basis points from the Q1. 3rd, leisure rates at our resorts remained well above 2019 levels despite some expected moderation in the 2nd quarter. For context, transient rates at our resorts were 61% above 2019 in the second quarter, an increase from 54% in the Q1. 4th, as evidenced by the airline and TSA data, We expect international demand to be a tailwind going forward. In June, U.

Speaker 2

S. International outbound air travel Grew to 110% of pre pandemic levels, while international inbound was only 80%. This aligns with U. S. Outbound summer flight bookings, which are up 27% year over year, While corresponding inbound bookings were up only 3% according to rate gain.

Speaker 2

It is the 1st summer since 2019 The U. S. Travelers had enough lead time to plan an unrestricted international vacation and we expect these trends will revert over time. Finally, and most importantly, we are not seeing evidence of a weakened consumer at our hotels. Comparable hotel food and beverage spend was up 6% to last year, driven fairly evenly by banquets and outlets, Indicating the strength of both group and transient customers.

Speaker 2

This is particularly encouraging as outlet revenue grew 5% despite flat portfolio wide occupancy. In fact, our resort outlet revenue per occupied room Grew 5% in the 2nd quarter compared to 2022 and it was also the highest in host history at $196 Other revenue also continued to grow with all line items up over last Here, except for attrition and cancellation fees, which are moderating as expected. Golf and Spa revenues remain robust With growth over the record highs of 2022, which we believe is further evidence of the leisure travelers' desire and ability to spend on experiences. In fact, we still had 5 resorts with transient rates of $1,000 or more. Notably, the top three resorts were recent acquisitions, underscoring the strength of our opportunistic capital allocation strategy.

Speaker 2

Leading the pack was a Lila Ventana Big Sur at nearly $1800 and the Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort And Four Seasons Resort and Residences Jackson Hole, both at over $1600 Moving to our reconstruction efforts Following Hurricane Ian, in June, we completed the final phase of the restoration work at the Hyatt Regency Coconut Point With the reopening of its water park and outdoor dining complex. And last month, We reopened the completely transformed Ritz Carlton Naples, which combined a comprehensive renovation of the existing resort with the addition of a new 74 key tower. As part of the renovation, we expanded the guestroom bathrooms to increase fixture counts, Elevated the design and functionality of the rooms and combined standard guest rooms to create multi bay suites. We also enhanced the arrival experience with a reimagined lobby and lobby bar. The ROI development Vanderbilt Tower added a net 24 additional keys, increased the suite count to 92 from 35 And added new pools, cabanas, bungalows, a poolside F and B outlet with the bar and an expanded club lounge that eliminates the capacity constraint on upsells.

Speaker 2

In addition to the renovation and expansion, Our reconstruction efforts allowed us to opportunistically enhance the resiliency of the property by elevating critical equipment, Improving dry flood proofing measures, accelerating future building envelope waterproofing and replacing major equipment With more efficient machinery, the transformation of the Ritz Carlton Naples has been extremely well received since the reopening, And we are optimistic that the resort is set up to exceed our underwriting expectations. As an example, Pace for the 2023 festive season is well above historical levels with the expanded suite inventory And new club level facilities in high demand. The new lobby champagne bar has quickly become the place to see and be seen In Naples, for both guests and locals, we are extremely pleased with the transformation of this iconic resort and we are excited to see the results It delivers over the years to come. In terms of insurance proceeds related to Hurricane Ian, To date, we have received $113,000,000 of the expected potential insurance recovery of approximately $310,000,000 The proceeds have all been allocated to property damage thus far. Turning to group, revenue exceeded 2022 by 4%, marking the 4th consecutive quarter Group revenue exceeded 2019.

Speaker 2

Definite group room nights on the books for 2023 increased to $3,700,000 in the 2nd quarter, which represents approximately 103% Our comparable full year 2022 actual group room nights, up from 94% as of the first quarter. For full year 2023, group rate on the books is up 7% to the same time last year, a 30 basis point increase since the Q1. In addition, total group revenue pace is up Looking ahead to 2024, we have 2,200,000 definite group room nights on the books. Total group revenue pace is up 13.5% to the same time last year and up 1.5% to the same time 2019. We are encouraged by the ongoing strength of group as evidenced by accelerating booking activity, lengthening booking windows And tentative room nights ahead of both last year in 2019.

Speaker 2

Moving to portfolio reinvestment. We completed comprehensive renovations at the final asset in the Marriott Transformational Capital Program, the Washington Marriott and Metro Center during the Q2. The program, which began in 2018, included extensive guest room and public area renovations at 16 assets and finished under budget. During the pandemic, we expanded our reinvestment strategy to include 8 additional assets With required near term CapEx, where we believe significant upside could be realized with transformational renovations. To date, we have completed 7 of those 8 assets.

Speaker 2

We believe these comprehensive renovations will enable us to continue to capture incremental market share above our targeted range of 3 to 5 points of RevPAR index share gains And that is shaping up to be the case so far. Looking at results to date, Of the 7 hotels that have stabilized post renovation operations, the average RevPAR index share gain is 8.8 points. For the full year, our 2023 capital expenditure guidance range is $625,000,000 to $725,000,000 which reflects approximately $240,000,000 of investment for redevelopment, repositioning and ROI projects, as well as $125,000,000 to $175,000,000 for hurricane restoration work. Remaining projects include the completion of a transformational renovation of the Fairmont Keilani, A repositioning renovation of the Hilton's Singer Island and breaking ground on Phoenician Canyon Suite Villas and the luxury condominium development At Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort. More broadly, we will continue to be Strategic and opportunistic in our approach to driving EBITDA growth.

Speaker 2

We have an investment grade balance sheet, independent analytic capabilities, A diversified portfolio and the size, scale and team to continue executing across economic cycles. We have created meaningful shareholder value over the past 6 years by improving the quality of our cash flow And we believe Host is ideally positioned to outperform in the current macroeconomic environment. With that, I will turn the call over to Saurabh.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our 2nd quarter operations, our updated 2023 guidance and our balance sheet and dividend. Starting with business mix, overall transient revenue was up 80 basis points to the Q2 of 2022 driven by rate growth, which offset a slight decrease in demand. Softening transient demand drove the miss to RevPAR guidance, driven primarily by underperformance in San Francisco and Seattle and at our resorts to a lesser extent. Resorts in the 2nd quarter saw transient revenue down 8% over the all time high of the Q2 of 2022.

Speaker 3

While transient rate at resorts was down year over year, It was still 61% above 2019 after being up 54% compared to 2019. In fact, transient revenue at our resorts increased in the 2nd quarter compared to the Q1 despite the slight decrease in demand. Business transient revenue was 16% above the Q2 of 2022, driven by a 10% rate increase. Demand also increased by nearly 6% above last year, driven by our hotels in New York, Boston and Washington DC. Our downtown properties accounted for 65% of the business change in demand, which is in line with pre pandemic trends.

Speaker 3

Small and medium sized businesses continue to drive the recovery representing the majority of our business transient demand today. Turning to group. Group room revenues were 4% above the Q2 of 2022, fully driven by rate growth. The 1,100,000 group room nights sold in the quarter was slightly ahead of both last year and the Q1, which aligns with 2019 seasonal trends. Washington, D.

Speaker 3

C, Chicago and Boston drove the group room revenue growth compared to 2022. With respect to group mix, corporate group room revenue was up 9% in the 2nd quarter, driven by nearly 6% rate growth. As anticipated, Association Group revenue was down almost 3% in the Q2 compared to last year as the Q2 of 2022 had elevated Association Group volume driven by rebookings for events that were canceled during the pandemic. Social, military, educational, religious and fraternal or Smurf Group Revenue was up 3% in the 2nd quarter, driven by 2.5% rate growth. Our 2024 total group revenue pace is above both 2022 2019, and we are encouraged by the citywide booking pace In New Orleans, San Diego, Seattle and Washington DC, all of which have citywide group room nights meaningfully ahead of the same time last year.

Speaker 3

Shifting gears to margin performance. Our 2nd quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin came in at 32.7%, which is 40 basis points better than the Q2 of 2019, but below the high watermark of the Q2 of 2022 When staffing at hotels lag demand. Total comparable expenses grew just 7.5% over 2019, While total comparable revenues were up 7.8%. As expected, attrition and cancellation revenue moderated from 2020 Despite elevated inflation over the past 4 years and occupancy still 8 points below 2019. As Jim noted, we tightened our full year comparable hotel RevPAR growth range to 7% to 9%.

Speaker 3

The RevPAR midpoint of 8% is 100 basis points less than our prior midpoint, But at the high end of the original guidance range we provided in February, we estimate that approximately 60 basis points of the midpoint decline is Attributable to 2nd quarter results and the remaining 40 basis points is attributable to our updated outlook for the second half of the year. While we have not yet seen signs of a macroeconomic driven slowdown, our guidance range continues to contemplate varying degrees of moderating growth the second half of the year. As a result, we would expect year over year comparable hotel RevPAR percentage Changes in the second half of the year to be flat to up low single digits, primarily driven by occupancy. At the midpoint of our guidance, we would expect a comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 29.9%, Which is 40 basis points ahead of 2019 and full year adjusted EBITDAre of $1,560,000,000 Keep in mind that the midpoint of our revised full year 2023 adjusted EBITDAre guidance is still $100,000,000 above original guidance we provided in February and down only $25,000,000 from the guidance we provided in May. We expect our operational results to roughly follow 2019 quarterly seasonal trends as provided on Page 17 of our supplemental financial information.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, the Q3 of the year is historically the weakest of the 4 quarters in terms of both nominal dollars and margins due to seasonal market and business mix shift. Our 2023 full year adjusted EBITDAre guidance includes An expected $17,000,000 contribution from Hyatt Regency Coconut Point and the Ritz Carlton Naples, both of which are excluded from our comparable hotel results due to impacts from Hurricane Ian. As we have discussed previously, The pre hurricane estimated contribution from these 2 hotels, including the new tower at Ritz Carlton Naples was expected to be an additional $71,000,000 in 2023. It is also important to note we have not included any expected business interruption proceeds from Hurricane Ian in our 2023 guidance. As we have discussed over the past few quarters, year over year, we expect comparable hotel EBITDA margins to be down 210 basis points at the low end of our guidance to down 170 basis points at the high end Q2, stable staffing levels at our hotels, higher utility and insurance expenses and lower attrition and cancellation fees.

Speaker 3

We expect the biggest margin differential year over year to be in the 2nd quarter with a narrowing margin spread in the second half of the year. For these reasons, we do not believe 2022 represents a stabilized comparison for margins. Relative to 2019, which is more representative year 4 margin comparison, we expect margins this As we have discussed in the past, it is particularly impressive when you consider that our forecasted total hotel expense CAGR From 2019 to 2023 is only 1.6% versus the forecasted core CPI CAGR of 4% over the same period. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position, our weighted average maturity is 4.7 years at a weighted average interest rate of 4.5% And we have no significant maturities until April 2024. We ended the 2nd quarter at 2.2 times leverage And we have $2,500,000,000 of total available liquidity, which includes $213,000,000 of FF and E reserves and full availability of our $1,500,000,000 credit facility.

Speaker 3

In addition, during the second quarter, we achieved in our progress towards our renewable energy goal, resulting in a 2.5 basis point reduction in the interest rate on the outstanding term loans Under our sustainability linked credit facility, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, an increase of $0.03 or 25 percent over the prior quarter in July. Though we expect to maintain our quarterly dividend at a Taking into consideration potential macroeconomic factors, all future dividends are subject to approval by the company's Board of Directors. We remain optimistic on the future of our business and travel overall. In any scenario, we believe our portfolio, Our balance sheet and our team are well positioned to continue outperforming and we will continue to be strategic in the current macroeconomic environment. With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

Speaker 3

To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer Thank you. Our first question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is live.

Speaker 4

Hey, thank you.

Speaker 5

Appreciate the macro stats that you shared, But do you have any way to track international inbound as a percent of your own portfolio? Where does that stand now versus Pre pandemic levels as a percentage of the mix?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's Duane. Pre pandemic, international windbound accounted for roughly 10% of our room nights. In quarter 2 of 2022, it was 7.8% and that is compared to 7.4% in 2022 in the second quarter. So we feel that international inbound is a tailwind to our portfolio performance going forward, in particular, if you saw in the month of June, International inbound was only 80% of where it was in June of 2019. Outbound, as we've talked about, was 110% of where it was in June of 2019.

Speaker 2

So As the world starts to normalize and hopefully as we can Right. I'll sort out the visa wait times in the U. S, which are 400 days now On average, and it's a real drag on international inbound. As an example, Canada, you can get a visa from a country That they require a visa for travel to Canada in 55 days. So that is That's a big issue that we as an industry are dealing with through U.

Speaker 2

S. Travel and through AHLA as well. The other Impediment at this point in time with respect to international inbound in our West Coast markets in particular is Pavel from China. Pre pandemic, we had 3 50 direct flights a week between the U. S.

Speaker 2

And China. As it sits today, we have 24. So we're optimistic that over time things are going to normalize And that we're going to see the return of the international travel, which will further bolster outperformance.

Speaker 5

Thanks. And then just for my follow-up on BEI on the business interruption. As you think about growth into 20 You'll have a natural recovery in Naples from the RIPS being back online. My guess is that would begin to contribute Year on year in Q4, but from a growth perspective, what would be the ideal timing for BI reimbursement to hit?

Speaker 2

I'll let Saurabh jump in on this, but let me just kind of set the table with respect to how Our insurance program works. We've collected $113,000,000 All related to restoration and physical damage repair. We have a $130,000,000 receivable Outstanding and we won't start recognizing business interruption proceeds until we collect The $130,000,000 at a minimum.

Speaker 3

Yes, Duane. And the timing, honestly, that's why we don't have it in our forecast. It's very difficult to say. We're working with the insurance carriers right now in terms of determining how much that BI amount is. So the collection of it Could be certainly some amount in Q3 bleed into Q4 as well as into the following year.

Speaker 3

We actually got from Hurricane Ida, if you recall, Which impacted New Orleans. Last year, we just got a $2,700,000 BI payment this quarter. So the timing is very difficult to gauge. We fully expect, as we said, that we would be Paid out and it's certainly going to be a meaningful amount. The exact timing is very difficult to predict at this point in time.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Speaker 4

Thanks and good afternoon. Within the Q2, was it June where you saw things not really play out as you expected? And then the magnitude of the implied impact to second half RevPAR in guidance is, I guess, less of the impact in 2Q. Can you add some color on the underlying assumptions? And is there something in there that's maybe better than you originally expected?

Speaker 2

Ari, can you clarify that? Is this are

Speaker 4

you referring to the our assumptions with respect to the second half of the year? Yes. The first part was just on when you started to see the weakness in the Q2 and the second part was, Yes, I think the RevPAR impact was 60 basis points, worse than expected in the second quarter and then another 40 basis points In the second half of the year. So just curious if you can give some more color on the second half and some of the underlying assumptions There, how you expect that to play out, if there's anything better or worse than you originally expected?

Speaker 2

Sure. So as we saw performance weaken in the month of June, that's really when it We saw that the vast majority of the weakness occur. We went back At the property level and really looked at the assumptions that were in the forecast with respect to Transient pickup in the quarter for the quarter. You may recall that We had transient pickup as high as 28% in the quarter for the quarter and another quarter it was at 20%. Well, that didn't materialize for the Q2.

Speaker 2

So as we have Talked about trends normalizing, we think that is a trend that is normalizing at this point in time. And We were very, I would say, thoughtful and deliberate about how we expected the second half of the year to play out. And we really washed out a meaningful amount of the transient pickup in the quarter For the quarter and that led to our revised forecast.

Speaker 6

Is that helpful?

Speaker 4

Yes, I appreciate the color. And then just a Quick other question. I think you have some seller financing coming up later this year. Any update there On how you expect that to play out?

Speaker 6

Yes, sure.

Speaker 2

Well, we had the loan on the Sheraton Boston matured the maturity date was August 1, 2 days ago. And The borrower was in the process of refinancing us out and they needed a little more time To do it, so we entered into an agreement with that borrower To provide for a 60 day extension, and it also involved The receipt of a 10% principal pay down on our loan, which was $16,100,000 and we have received that money. And we restated the interest rate from 6.5% to 12%. So that loan is now due at the end of September, but we've materially improved our position on it and I am very confident That the borrower is going to be able to get the financing done. The nuance was a condo regime That they were pursuing on the property to effectuate their business plan.

Speaker 2

They were going to convert 1 tower. They are going to convert 1 tower to Student housing and leave the other tower as a hotel and it was just taking a bit longer to effectuate The condo documents and the like to get it done. With respect to the loan on the Marquis, we have been in contact with The borrower and they are actively in the market pursuing a refinance. So we feel good that they're going to be able to get that deal done.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for all the color.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Your line is live.

Speaker 3

Hi, good afternoon. Just one for me and I guess on the other side of the refinancing activity, we saw that a owner of a resort in Maui was able to get a Wholesale refinance with a cash out refi at a high rate, but good proceeds. So do you think that kind of ability Limit kind of the number of deals that comes to market in terms of your ability to maybe do some larger acquisitions here?

Speaker 2

I think it really is very sponsor specific, Market specific and hotel specific, Anthony. And the asset that you're referring to in Maui Had been on the market for sale on more than one occasion, frankly. It's something that we obviously looked at, but given our Exposure on Maui and the assets that we own, it wasn't something that we could get excited about. And whenever they Could not effectuate a sale at the price that they wanted. They were able to get the deal done.

Speaker 2

Now that's a unique asset because it had As you know, the resort market is extremely strong and it had really strong underlying cash flow, strong performance. It had undergone a renovation and it had the right equity capital behind it as well. So There will be circumstances like the Maui property where sellers will be able to get an attractive refinance, there are also going to be circumstances where all those boxes aren't checked, whether or not the asset It's not performing well, whether or not it's been reinvested in, whether or not it's in a market that A lender would find attractive to deploy capital to, so deploy money to. So I still believe that over time, Given the fact that there have been so many assets that have not been reinvested in over the course of the pandemic and Ownersborrowers are strapped for cash and they have to put capital into their hotels that we may see opportunities Later in this year and into 2024.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Smedes Rose with Citi. Your line is live.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you a little more about the weaker than expected transient business in San Francisco and Seattle. And I think in San Francisco, maybe it's not all that surprising given kind of continued delays in their recovery and a lot of Ugly headline issues around quality of life. But in Seattle, do you ascribe the weakness to just kind of more of Local economic issues, maybe if you do with the tech industry or are you also starting to see a pullback in Because of sort of issues that that city might be having as well and is that going to become a drag longer term on the portfolio?

Speaker 3

Hey, Sameet. With Seattle, we actually saw BT improve. So that was Certainly not an issue with Seattle. It was just overall sort of anticipation of how much we could pick up not only in the quarter for the quarter, but really in the month for the month. Sort of we started seeing the trend shift a little bit at the end of May into June.

Speaker 3

So for us, Seattle actually continues to be a relatively it was always a weaker market to begin with at the beginning of this year, But there is signs, especially if you look into 2024 citywide and just pace, there certainly is strength in the Seattle Market moving forward. So this we attribute really to sort of short term transient pickup. Overall, I mean, when you look at sort of Seattle, specifically, BT revenue grew actually year over year by About 5% and that was all rate driven by Amazon. Group room nights and total revenue production also exceeded our internal Forecast. So it really was BT driven.

Speaker 3

It wasn't anything to do with group at all. So Overall, we sort of sorry, leisure driven versus BT driven.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then could I just follow-up on that? When you as you reintroduced the Ritz Carlton And you talked about the $71,000,000 I guess, that you lost through disruption. When what sort of time frame would you expect To recoup that, is that something that will happen all in 2023 or how are you thinking about that?

Speaker 2

Well, I think this goes to the earlier question Regarding the receipt of timing of business interruption proceeds, we haven't put the BI in our forecast because we just don't know we're going to receive it, but I'm hopeful that certainly through the course of 2024, We should be able to close out most, if not all of the claim associated with Hurricane Ian. And we do anticipate very strong performance from both the Ritz and the Hyatt Regency next year as well.

Speaker 7

Okay. But do you think I mean, I was less asking about the business interruption and more just about recouping The EBITDA that was lost and getting back to getting that $71,000,000 back just from operations, do you think that's a 2020?

Speaker 2

That should Barring a macroeconomic meltdown, that will certainly happen throughout the course of 2024. I mean, it's a seasonal property. We're very pleased with the pace that we're seeing around festive, which is really December, January February, December, January and then the property really takes off in that period of time in the Q1. So There is incredible enthusiasm for the new offerings at the hotel, at the resort in Naples. It's a really unique property and we're very optimistic that it's going to perform very well and we should Between those two assets over the course of 2024, rebuild our $71,000,000 that we lost this year due to the yield.

Speaker 3

Hey, Smedes, I just want to clarify here so you understand we are actually picking up combined for non comparable hotels, which includes Coconut Point and Ritz Maple, $17,000,000 in the adjusted EBITDAre number. So it's not in our hotel EBITDA, but it is in our adjusted EBITDAre. That's for 2023. So the 2024, dollars 71,000,000 which we're saying, that is that's incremental to that $17,000,000 None of that $71,000,000 is really In the 2023 number, if that makes sense.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Katz With Jefferies, your line is live.

Speaker 8

Hi, afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to go back to the expense side because it's come up a handful of times around the cost of labor. 1, as a function of just being fully staffed on a comparable basis versus last year, But to the actual per person cost of it and whether that's going up. And secondarily, We've talked before about the cost of insurance and I just wanted to get an update there as well, please.

Speaker 3

Sure. I think we had messaged before that our wage rate growth for this year, we expect it to be around 5%, and that we Are still holding to that. And thus far, when you look through our expenses, we have actually performed pretty well on our expenses, and you can see that And our margin expansion relative to 2019 for the Q2 as well as what we are expecting for the full year to the midpoint being 40 basis points. So labor wise, we still expect the 5% rate growth. We are seeing all the productivity Improvements we made as a result of redefining our operating model still holding and certainly something that is sustainable, which is driving the margin expansion to 2019.

Speaker 3

As far as insurance goes, we had baked into the forecast Approximately 50% premium increase. Our renewal was in June 1. We maintained Our coverage and the limits that we had previously, so no change to that. The overall The rate increase was about 38% and the premium increase, like I said, was close to 50%. So for the full year, which is already in our forecast and was in our forecast, Insurance expense is expected to go up about 40% year over year, which equates to approximately $61,000,000 Or 2023.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Your line is live.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Just one question for me on the group booking front. Can you provide some color just on what markets you're seeing pickup momentum? And there are also any markets in the portfolio that were either softer or you see softening or maybe just leveling off as you look out to the back half of the year in 2024?

Speaker 3

Thank you. Sure. Specifically for 2024, as Jim mentioned, our total group revenue pace is ahead to 2019 by 1.5%. And just to remind you, when we were looking sort of In the end of last year, we were actually down double digits in total revenue pace, and that improved to down about 4.4% to 2019 In the Q1 and now it's actually positive. So we are seeing really positive activity and momentum when it comes to 2024 pace.

Speaker 3

For our specific portfolio, where we are seeing pace very strong is Atlanta, Chicago, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, as mentioned earlier, Seattle and Washington, D. C. And that wraps with sort of the citywide pace improvement as well where we're seeing positive citywides Better than 2019 and for New Orleans, San Diego, Seattle, MDC.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bill Crow with Raymond James. Your line is live.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good afternoon. Hey, Jim, help me understand this leisure normalization that we're all talking about because implicit in your remarks, at least I took it that maybe rate is staying strong, but demand is off. We heard from a peer this morning that said Rate is down 10%, one of their markets, but demand is strong. I guess I'm trying to figure out what you're seeing out there.

Speaker 9

Is it on the demand side? Is it on the rate side? Is it both on the leisure normalization?

Speaker 2

Sure, Bill. We had always anticipated in our forecasting that rate was going to back off a bit. I mean, we never believe that rate was going to be sustainable Relative to where it was in 2019. And certainly, in 2nd quarter 2022 was An anomaly on many, many fronts given Omicron in Q1. So we assume rate was going

Speaker 3

to come down and it did.

Speaker 2

I think our leisure rate Came down about 7% all in all. That said, it was still 61% higher than Where it was in Q2, 2019? What we didn't anticipate and I don't think anybody If you look at the commentary of travel related companies in general, whether they're the car rental companies or the airlines, Was the desire by the U. S. Consumer to travel abroad.

Speaker 2

And That is where we saw the softness in our leisure business, because we didn't pick up the volume that we anticipated that we would. I think our total leisure occupancy It was down by 1 percentage point. So it was nothing meaningful by any stretch of the imagination. Rates are still at record levels. As you saw in the release, Trevpar was up 3.8%.

Speaker 2

So we're still seeing very healthy out of room spend, whether it's at outlets or Golf, spa and otherwise, I mean, we had a record outlet spend per occupied room, I think of $193.96 in the quarter. So I don't know if people are going to go to Europe Every quarter or if they're going to go to Europe in the Q2 of next year, but clearly this was a phenomena that I think Everyone missed. And we're just very we're very comfortable with how the resorts have performed in general. Certainly, from a rate perspective, the issue was really a slowdown in volume.

Speaker 9

If I can just pursue that just a little bit more because you talked about this normalization and kind of the we call it the travel, the international travel imbalance. But it's been kind of 3 years of pent up demand. So it seems like that could Continue for a while longer. And I'm just curious and you probably don't have an answer, but yours is better than mine. We going to be talking about continued normalization next year?

Speaker 2

I hope we can get Frankly, Bill, I hope we can get beyond talking about 2019 2022 And say, okay, 2023 is the year we look at and it's in our new benchmark and our new base year going forward. So normalization to occur in 2024, I frankly think that that's a tailwind to us. And it really is a tailwind because of where international inbound performed in the Q2. And some of the issues we talked about With respect to flights from China and visa wait times and things of that nature, I mean, we just didn't see any pickup In our resort properties or elsewhere, frankly, from the international inbound travel, I mean, We had 10% of our room nights in 2019. We were 7.8%.

Speaker 2

So Again, I think it's a positive for us going forward and I think it's a positive for the industry going forward. We're certainly not seeing anyone Reining the consumer is very healthy. We're not seeing them rein in their spending.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, Jim. I appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Sure, Bill.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Tyler Batory with Oppenheimer. Your line is live.

Speaker 6

Good afternoon. Thank you. I just want to stick on the leisure topic for a minute here. And just a multipart question. I mean, a lot of the Terry, relates to your resort properties.

Speaker 6

I'm also interested in what you're seeing urban leaders specifically on the weekends, if that's following A similar trajectory in terms of a softness that you're experiencing on the resort side. And then just kind of a follow-up thinking about Revenue management, if demand slows further from here at your resort properties, would you look to hold on So, to occupancy, and lower rates or maybe you want to hold on to rate and you're okay sacrificing So, Mark, can you just trying to think through some of the scenarios there?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll answer the second part of your question first and I'll let Saurabh Talk to the first part regarding Urban Leisure. That's a tricky question to answer without really looking at the proper yield management strategies. You flow a much greater percentage of ADR to the bottom line than you do a point in occupancy. And I think one of the things that has been really encouraging over the course of The last several years is the fact that generally across the board, properties have held rates And rate integrity has remained intact and there would have to be a real meaningful trade off, I.

Speaker 2

E, a significant pickup in occupancy before we would consider cutting rate, because once you cut rate, it's difficult to go back the other direction. And as I said, we saw 1% reduction in occupancy in Q2 And rate was still 60% above where it was in the Q2 of 2019. And it really just flows to the bottom line and Has a meaningful impact on margin performance.

Speaker 3

Yes. And on the leisure front, When you're looking at the urban hotels, they actually were pretty consistent overall. We didn't see the same level of drop off, if you Well, in terms of the demand, and we saw a little more consistent short term in the quarter for the quarter pickup With the exception obviously of San Francisco and Seattle as we mentioned. But overall, when you look at sort of our Overall other market performance, we were actually up in rate, 6.3% and for our convention you're about 5.1% overall for that. And while resort was actually down about 4%.

Speaker 3

So definitely had a more stable performance even when you looked at the holiday performance during the quarter.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Appreciate that detail. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.

Speaker 10

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for all the details so far. Questions on the tail that you expect to get from the capital transformation program. I think you mentioned 8 of the hotels are fully Stabilized and you're getting the 9 points. Just how long does that last?

Speaker 10

What about the other, I guess, 8 or 9 hotels? And then Does that make you want to I think you mentioned there were 2 others that you renovated that weren't in the original program. Does that make you, Jim, look want to look at even more hotels and as other owners are dealing with issues and maybe not fully keeping up on their own capital.

Speaker 2

The short answer to the second part of your question, Chris, is we will continue to be opportunistic And where we see an opportunity to do a transformational renovation and I want to underline The word transformational, because I think that is why we are seeing the outperformance that we are achieving in The recently renovated and stabilized properties, we have the balance sheet, we have the capital, we have the team internally To execute on those types of opportunities and we will certainly look to deploy capital Where we think we can achieve better than 3 to 5 points in yield index. To answer your question with respect to how long does it last? Well, I suppose I could tell you that it would last until the property looks hard And we have to renovate it again. And that's probably you're talking 7 year cycle generally for a rooms renovation, 7 to 8 years Roughly. So we are really optimistic that we were able to deploy the type of capital that we did into our properties over the

Speaker 10

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is live.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks. Just wanted to understand a little bit better your guidance for second half margin. You have Decline is kind of moderating from Q2, but RevPAR not necessarily much stronger. So just kind of wondering how you got comfortable because a lot of those factors you mentioned, I would think could still have tough comps in terms of labor costs and cancellations, Fewer cancellation fees.

Speaker 11

So just any color there you can give us?

Speaker 3

Yes, Robin. I mean, when you look at sort of our Guidance and I'll speak to the EBITDA dollars perspective. We basically took it down, what, about 25,000,000 Dollars, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, and we would attribute about $17,000,000 really to the second quarter And about $8,000,000 sorry, dollars 18,000,000 to the 2nd quarter and then $7,000,000 call it to the second half. And The way you look at sort of the RevPAR growth that we're assuming, we effectively looked at the short term pickup market by market, and we expected In the quarter for the quarter pickup and really scrubbed that to get to the RevPAR growth of Low single digit growth for the second half. On the expense side, the expense drivers that we effectively flowed through Was all revenue driven.

Speaker 3

So when you look at the Q2 as well, the relative drop in terms of Margin to what we had guided to was more than 80% all revenue driven. So we feel very comfortable with all the Spence growth that we have in there, the only thing we did moderate is also food and beverage revenue, which obviously, just given Q2 trends, we moderated that. That flows through the food and beverage department line as well as impacts margins. So we feel very comfortable in terms of our In terms of our expense forecast for the second half relative to the revenue growth that we have.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Thank you. And I don't know if I heard you guys mention an expectation for corporate negotiated rate for next year?

Speaker 3

No, we did not. That will not start until really later in August. So we'll have more color as to What that will be shaping up like probably on our Q3 call as we typically do.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. Our final question will be coming from Doreen Kestin of Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Speaker 12

Thanks. You mentioned a few times washing out the short term transient pickup in the second half of the year. What would your guidance look like if the pickup was comparable to 2019?

Speaker 3

What it would look like if it was in terms of the transient pickup being comparable to 2019? Because we are obviously off From a BT perspective, meaningfully, we are off by 20%. The group is group room nights, but it also off. So it's kind of Difficult to say relative to 2019 in terms of room nights because we are up in rate, right? So I don't have Exactly what that number would be, if our rate was held exactly at 2019 and we had the same amount of room price in 2019.

Speaker 12

Okay. I guess I'll ask the second one. So you've talked about the healthy out of rent spend and I think year to date The RevPAR to total RevPAR growth spreads about 200 basis points. And so I'm just trying to figure out, like what do you see in the second half of the year that leads you to believe by year end Room and out of room spend growth should converge.

Speaker 3

So when you look at where the food and beverage Came in for the Q2 relative to 2019, it was certainly lower, and that was really being driven by sort of the Type of groups that we actually got in Q2 and a lot of the rebookings that took place during the pandemic that were in Q2. When you look forward into Q3 and Q4, our as we mentioned earlier, Q3 is our weakest group quarter. So food and beverage and banquet and AB will be lower as well in Q3. But Q4 is a strong group quarter for us. And that's where we feel like food and beverage should perform well in the Q4, just based on the catering pace that we have.

Speaker 3

And as a reminder, I mean, Banker and Catering contribution, With the metric we look at, which was up 20% in Q1, that was up over 6% in Q2 as well. So that we still have We still believe in the strength of Banquet and AV going forward in the second half as well as the outlet performance of our resorts, Which, by the way, on a per occupied room basis was 46% above 2019.

Speaker 12

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. So I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Risolia for any closing comments he may have.

Speaker 2

I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on our Q2 call today. We appreciate the opportunity to discuss our quarterly results with you. We hope you enjoy the rest of your summer and we look forward to seeing many of you in person this fall. Thanks again.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's call and you may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.

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Earnings Conference Call
Host Hotels & Resorts Q2 2023
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