NYSE:NFG National Fuel Gas Q3 2023 Earnings Report $78.01 +0.44 (+0.57%) Closing price 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$78.50 +0.49 (+0.63%) As of 08:00 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast National Fuel Gas EPS ResultsActual EPS$1.01Consensus EPS $0.90Beat/MissBeat by +$0.11One Year Ago EPSN/ANational Fuel Gas Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$428.70 millionExpected Revenue$480.10 millionBeat/MissMissed by -$51.40 millionYoY Revenue GrowthN/ANational Fuel Gas Announcement DetailsQuarterQ3 2023Date8/2/2023TimeN/AConference Call DateThursday, August 3, 2023Conference Call Time10:00AM ETUpcoming EarningsNational Fuel Gas' Q2 2025 earnings is scheduled for Wednesday, April 30, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 4:00 PM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Q2 2025 Earnings ReportConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)SEC FilingEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by National Fuel Gas Q3 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrAugust 3, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by. My name is Kayla Baker, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the National Fuel Gas Company Q3 Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Operator00:00:28I would now like to turn the call over to Director of Investor Relations, Brandon Haspitt. You may begin. Speaker 100:00:35Thank you, Kayla, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Dave Bauer, President and Chief Executive Officer Tim Silverstein, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer Justin Loweth, President of Seneca Resources and National Fuel Midstream. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will Speaker 200:00:56open the discussion to questions. Speaker 100:00:58The Q3 fiscal 2023 earnings release and August investor presentation have been posted on our Investor Relations website. You may refer to these materials during today's call. We'd like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith And are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as the date on which they are made and you may refer to last evening's earnings release Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Speaker 200:01:28Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Speaker 300:01:29Q3 fiscal Q4 listing of certain specific Speaker 100:01:30risk factors. Speaker 300:01:30With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave Bauer. Thanks, Brandon, Speaker 400:01:30and good morning, everyone. Last night, we reported adjusted operating results for the quarter of $1.01 per share. While generally in line with our expectations, earnings were down compared to last year. Appalachian production was up 6 Bcf versus last year, despite the impact of over 5 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter. But this was more than offset by the loss of earnings related to our California properties that were sold last June and sharply lower natural gas prices. Speaker 400:02:07Operationally, it was a good quarter across the company. Seneca continues to see excellent results from its development program, which has driven production to record levels. Cash unit operating costs were very much in line with expectations. Pricing, as I just said, was obviously a headwind for the quarter And will likely continue to be volatile through the fall, but our robust marketing and hedging portfolio minimized the impact to low in basin pricing and limited the amount of voluntary curtailments during the quarter. Longer term, we're constructed by natural gas prices As increasing LNG export capacity that starts ramping up in the next 12 to 24 months should drive increased natural gas demand. Speaker 400:02:50Quarter. Over time, our deep inventory of high quality drilling locations positions us well to take advantage of higher pricing. Our Midstream businesses had strong operational quarters as well. On the non regulated gathering side, Energy Midstream saw record gathering throughput from both Seneca and 3rd party producers. And our FERC regulated pipelines were able to capitalize on strong interest and Short Term Transportation Services. Speaker 400:03:16Over the past few months, volatility in locational pricing basis has created opportunities for our shippers call. The filing considers the numerous investments we've made in rate base, the overall increased expenses of our pipeline operations And the ongoing need for supply to invest in system modernization, including both regulatory driven and emission reductions projects. Q3 fiscal. Due rates will go into effect February 1, subject to refund. As you know, we have a good history of settling our pipeline rate cases. Speaker 400:03:55So I'm hopeful we can reach a settlement before then. Turning to the downstream business. In June, the Pennsylvania Utility Commission Approved the settlement of our recent rate case. Under that agreement, annual base rates increased by $23,000,000 effective August 1st. Construction season is well underway at the utility and both jurisdictions are on track to meet their mileage replacement targets. Speaker 400:04:19Quarter. As a reminder, we have a modernization tracker in New York that allows us to recover in near real time the investments we make in modernization through September 2024. Fiscal year 2020. In Pennsylvania, we plan to increase the pace of our modernization efforts and will likely seek a similar modernization tracking mechanism to begin recovering that investment. In June, our Board of Directors approved an $0.08 per share increase to our dividend, which continues our impressive track record. Speaker 400:04:47We paid a dividend for 121 consecutive years and increased it in each of the last 53 years. This is a streak that we're proud of And it's one we plan to continue well into the future. Based on the outlook for the business, I have every confidence we'll be able to do so. Looking to next year midpoint to midpoint, our initial fiscal 2024 earnings per share guidance is nearly 11% higher than our updated 2023 guidance. Quarter. Speaker 400:05:12This increase is driven by a number of factors, including higher expected production and natural gas price 2017 and 'twenty three. Most of the expected decreases at Seneca, where we anticipate capital will be about 7% lower than this year. During fiscal 2024, Seneca will moderate its activity level as we transition to a maintenance to low single digit growth rate by fiscal 2025. Call. We also plan to focus our development program more heavily in the Eastern Development area. Speaker 400:06:02It's been 3 years since we completed our large Coyote County acquisition call. And we recently closed on 3 additional modest acreage acquisitions in EDA that bolstered our position. Obviously, we like what we see there. Quarter. Well results are outstanding and we have more than a decade of high quality inventory. Speaker 400:06:20So it makes sense to increase our focus on those assets. Justin will have more to say on this later in the call. Capital spending at the regulated companies is expected to increase, Driven in large part by continued cost inflation coupled with the ramp up in the Pennsylvania modernization program I referenced earlier and the continued investment in modernization and emissions reduction projects at Supply Corp. This is a good use of free cash flow. Call. Speaker 400:06:46As I've said on past calls, growing the regulated side of the business is a priority and investment in rate base is a great way to generate durable earnings and cash flows quarter. In closing, we continue to see great operational results across the system. Call. As we look to fiscal 'twenty four and beyond, we remain focused on the efficient allocation of capital towards investments that deliver strong returns through commodity price cycles call, which generates sustainable earnings and cash flows that allow us to grow our dividend, further strengthen our balance sheet and improve our overall financial flexibility. Call. Speaker 400:07:21With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin. Speaker 500:07:24Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Seneca and NFU Midstream wrapped up another strong operational quarter with record production and throughput. Seneca reported 3rd quarter production of 94.8 Bcfe, an increase of 2% over the 2nd quarter 7% above last year's Q3 Appalachian production, notwithstanding the over 5 Bcf impact of third party pipeline downtime and voluntary pricing related curtailments. Looking to the balance of the fiscal year, we are revising our fiscal 2023 production guidance range to 370 Bcfe to 380 Bcfe. Seneca is moving forward with its plan to push back the online timing of 2 pads to early fiscal 2024 to take advantage of higher expected winter pricing. Speaker 500:08:07As a result, we expect 4th quarter production will be slightly down relative to the 3rd quarter. Through multiple pricing cycles over the last decade, we have maintained a philosophy of curtailing production when spot pricing is depressed, call. And our experience and detailed analysis still support this approach. Our reservoir characteristics and coordinated marketing and operations teams Allow us to ramp production up and down through volatile periods like the one we're experiencing. Given our expectation that in basin pricing will continue to be depressed call. Speaker 500:08:47I will note, however, that our guidance as usual does not account for the potential impact of further voluntary pricing related curtailments. Moving to fiscal 'twenty four production guidance, we anticipate a 7% increase to a range of 390 to 4.10 Bcfe. We are targeting 19 wells to be turned in line during November December and additional pads in January February, which are expected to drive production higher in late Q1 and into Q2 to take advantage of winter pricing. Overall, supply demand dynamics have begun to improve, call, which we expect will set up for a strong natural gas price recovery as a new wave of LNG demand ramps up in late 'twenty four and beyond. Quarter. Speaker 500:09:27While the fundamentals are setting up for a more favorable longer term pricing environment, our robust hedge book provides a significant level of downside protection at attractive prices. Quarter. Over the past few quarters, we have continued to methodically layer in new hedges as the market is allowed, and we currently have over 280 Bcf locked in with a combination of hedges and fixed price firm sales for fiscal 2024. We also have firm transportation and firm sales covering 88% of production at the midpoint of guidance. Moving to capital, we are increasing our fiscal '23 capital guidance to a range of $575,000,000 to $600,000,000 During the first half of the year, we were running 2 rigs in an intermittent top hole rig. Speaker 500:10:11In addition, we had a spot frac crew operating in the EDA as well as our dedicated frac crew in the WDA. Going forward, we do not have any additional top hole work planned. And in late May, Seneca moved to a single dedicated electric frac crew. This crew is currently operating in the EDA call, where we recently completed a 6 well pad and are now completing a 13 well pad. While overall capital spending has moderated, our water management costs have trended higher, Which is now reflected in our fiscal 'twenty three and 'twenty four estimates. Speaker 500:10:44Moving to fiscal 'twenty four, capital is forecasted to decrease totaling over $35,000,000 which are expected to offset what would otherwise be a more pronounced capital decrease. Call. These include a seismic shoot in Tioga, long term investments in water infrastructure that will provide cost and efficiency benefits to our future development program and a larger land driven budget driven by a 2,500 acre lease in Lycoming County that we expect to close during the quarter. Regarding service costs, we're seeing costs moderate and expect a slight tailwind next year. Tubular pricing is trending down quarter and both rig and frac rates seem to have peaked earlier this year and are holding steady or have decreased from those levels. Speaker 500:11:37Call, though costs are still elevated compared to long term contract pricing from a year ago. Looking out longer term, Based on current Ford NYMEX prices and consistent with prior plans, we expect to moderate activity and will target maintenance to low single digit long term production growth and fiscal 2025 and beyond. Further, we expect to continue to transition to primarily EDA development, quarter, which is supported by over a decade of highly prolific development inventory. While returns on our WDA wells are strong, The expected well productivity in the EDA is superior to that of the wells in the WDA. The transition to an EDA focused development program is expected to drive long term capital efficiency and higher free cash flow as we continue to focus on optimizing well costs and development plans. Speaker 500:12:25Call. We are fortunate to have almost entirely fee acreage in the WDA that will never expire, allowing us to prioritize the EDA call, where we can develop our most economic acreage now while preserving the ability to develop our WA acreage once additional out of basin takeaway capacity is available, We continue to develop opportunities to grow 3rd party volumes by fully utilizing our significant wholly owned gathering systems. We are having a terrific year with 3rd party system throughput at record levels, exceeding 16 Bcf in the 3rd quarter. We also have significant construction underway in Tioga County as we build out infrastructure to support Seneca's long term development plans in the EDA. Quarter. Speaker 500:13:13Overall, our Appalachian development program remains well positioned to generate sustained free cash flow, focusing on prudently deploying capital through commodity price cycles. By leveraging our integrated model and maintaining our focus on cost structure, while steadfastly promoting our safety culture and sustainability initiatives, quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim. Speaker 200:13:37Thanks, Justin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, National Fuel reported 3rd quarter GAAP earnings of $1 per share. Excluding some minor items relating to unrealized gains that impact comparability, call. Our adjusted operating results were $1.01 per share, a decrease of $0.53 from last year's Q3. Dave hit on the major drivers, call. Speaker 200:13:56So I did want to note that last year's Q3 reflected approximately $0.15 per share of earnings related to our California assets. We closed Speaker 300:14:04on that sale in June 2022, so this will be Speaker 200:14:06the last quarter where we see a year over year impact. The remainder of the results for the quarter were relatively straightforward and discussed in detail in last night's earnings release. Given that, I'll spend some time talking about our outlook for the remainder of this year and for fiscal 2024. Quarter. Starting with this year, we've narrowed our earnings guidance to a range of $5.15 to $5.25 per share. Speaker 200:14:29Quarter. This reflects the price related curtailments Justin discussed and modest tweaks to some of our other guidance assumptions. We are well hedged for the remainder of the year with approximately 80% of our production protected from pricing changes. Additionally, we have firm sales in place for quarter. As we look to fiscal 2024, the outlook is strong across the company, where each of our segments is expected to see meaningful earnings growth. Speaker 200:15:03We are initiating earnings guidance with a range of $5.50 to $6 per share, an increase of 11% at the midpoint. Quarter. Starting with our regulated businesses, we are anticipating significant earnings growth, primarily driven by top line revenue increases. In Pennsylvania, our recent rate case settlement is expected to increase annual margin by $23,000,000 We've also agreed to a new weather normalization mechanism Speaker 300:15:31quarter that will dampen volatility during the winter Speaker 200:15:32heating season. In New York, we are projecting an $8,000,000 margin increase from our 2 pipeline modernization trackers. Our ability to add new investments to our original system modernization tracker ended in March. However, we are still able to recover the investments made prior to the sunset date. That tracker was supplemented with a new system improvement tracker, which allows us to recover on the investments made after March 31st this year. Speaker 200:15:55Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q4 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q4. Quarter. And that is reflected in our initial guidance. On the O and M side, we are projecting a 5% increase in our regulated businesses versus the prior year. This is driven by ongoing increases in labor expense, expanded regulatory compliance costs at both the state and federal levels and the inflationary impacts on contractor and material costs. Speaker 200:16:25Notwithstanding these projected cost headwinds, we still expect to deliver significant regulated earnings growth. Switching to our non regulated segments, there are 2 major drivers behind our expected year over year increase in earnings. First, Our fiscal 2024 guidance assumes a $3.25 per MMBtu average NYMEX natural gas price. While this represents a $0.35 decrease from this year, the value of our hedge book increases meaningfully next year. As a result, we expect our average realized natural gas price will be approximately $0.10 higher than fiscal 2023. Speaker 200:17:00Pricing continues to move around. So for reference, the $0.25 change in NYMEX equates to a $0.28 change in earnings per share. When coupling higher realized prices with an expected 25 Bcfe increase in natural gas production at the midpoint of our guidance, Seneca is positioned to deliver meaningful earnings growth next year. The growth in production also accrues to the benefit of our Gathering segment. Our midpoint to midpoint revenues are expected to increase by $20,000,000 quarter. Speaker 200:17:28On the cost side of things, we are expecting Seneca's cash unit cost to remain relative or roughly flat. On a per unit basis, Modestly higher LOE is expected to be largely offset by lower other taxes related to the Pennsylvania impact fee, which is based on average calendar year NYMEX prices. We also expect a $0.05 per Mcfe increase in projected DD and A expense. This is in line with our expectation of DD and A Trending towards our long term F and D rate of approximately $0.70 per Mcfe. Turning to capital, we've increased our 2023 guidance range by approximately $50,000,000 at the midpoint, principally driven by the increase at Seneca that Justin discussed earlier. Speaker 200:18:09The other changes are minor and are largely related to the timing of construction activity. With our fiscal year end occurring in the middle of the pipeline construction season, many projects straddle fiscal years and the timing of capital can move around. Looking at fiscal 2024, we've initiated capital guidance with a range of $865,000,000 to $975,000,000 this represents a 2% decrease from fiscal 2023 at the midpoint. Overall, the decrease expected in our non regulated businesses is largely offset with anticipated increases in spending in our Regulated Utility and Pipeline and Storage segments. Given the importance of safety and reliability quarter. Speaker 200:18:48And the substantial system integrity and emissions focused regulatory requirements for these operations, we believe it is prudent to continue to invest significantly in our modernization programs in each of our jurisdictions. We expect that this pipeline of investments funded with our internally generated cash flows will drive mid single digit rate base growth over the next several years, providing stable, predictable returns for our shareholders. Call. We believe this is an attractive way to deliver value and supports our ability to continue to grow our dividend over the long term. Bringing it all together, we are now expecting this year's cash flow from operations to exceed capital expenditures by approximately $325,000,000 Speaker 300:19:29This is more than sufficient Speaker 200:19:30to cover our dividend and the $150,000,000 of upstream acquisitions this fiscal year. Looking to fiscal 2024, We expect our cash from operations to exceed capital spending by $165,000,000 The primary reason for the decrease relative to 2023 call is expected to return to more normalized levels of working capital. As you may recall, we are projecting a large source of working capital this year and will likely remain in that range over the course of fiscal 2024. This gives us a great deal of flexibility and positions us well to navigate challenges or execute on potential opportunities that come our way. As we look beyond 2024, the outlook for our business remains strong. Speaker 200:20:21Floor prices for natural gas are around $4 per MMBtu. We continue to layer in hedges to lock in the high returns we generate at these prices. Seneca's capital is expected to decrease and the modernization programs in our regulated businesses provide the path towards steady, value accretive growth for many years to come. With this outlook, we are well positioned to increase our long standing dividend, further improve our leverage profile and deliver long term value to our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions. Operator00:20:57Star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Speaker 300:21:01We'll take Operator00:21:01our first question from Yumeng Chaudhary with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Speaker 600:21:06Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Speaker 400:21:09Good morning. Good morning. Speaker 600:21:12My first question was on this high grading, which you're doing towards the Eastern Development Program. You have this one time impact of $35,000,000 next year. But as you think about the program from a multiyear basis, can you talk us through what kind of efficiency gains we should expect And then also just on the near term, any color you can provide in terms of why the CapEx increase For FY 'twenty three. Thank you. Speaker 500:21:46Sure. I'll start with the near term just kind of some of the increase we've seen here of late. Really the Drivers behind fiscal 2023 going up is the first half of the year, we had a significant amount of Significant program going on with, in particular, spot completion activity, and that was at a time when rates were quite high. So our capital was running A little bit high. But ultimately, as we work through the second half of the year, we've been seeing Additional costs, particularly related to what I noted on the water management, mostly related to increased water hauling as we continue to have more operations In the EDA on some elevated trucking rates. Speaker 500:22:34These costs, we view them as transitory and evolving over time. So kind of pivoting into the longer term plan and how the move to the EDA will really benefit our long term efficiencies, gains and capital levels over time. We have significantly better well productivity in our EDA Utica in particular, quarter where we have a very deep inventory following the acquisitions we've completed over the last few years and we've really validated The well performance there and the quality of our position and what we should expect going forward. So Moving to an area with more well productivity both in terms of the deliverability of the wells early in their life, holding flat at restricted rates of $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 a day for many months in higher EURs will really benefit us over time. And we'll be shifting I know a good chunk of our activity and development into the EDA here over the next year to 2 As that ramps up, there are some one time costs associated with doing that, and largely related to the continued build out of infrastructure that will benefit us for many years to come. Speaker 500:23:56So mentioned water related infrastructure project. And then also I've been talking about some of the projects at our gathering business where we're investing in things like centralized compression and dehydration, which You'll have some of initial upfront capital, but really benefit O and M over time. So big picture, putting it all together, we would expect Increased capital efficiency is a result of this. And as we move into more of a maintenance, Then we would expect capital overall capital levels for Seneca and Gathering to shift down to $50,000,000 to $150,000,000 below Fiscal 2023 levels. Speaker 600:24:37And just to be sure that excluding the $35,000,000 of one time charges, right? So $55,000,000 taking all the $35,000,000 as well, which is one time in nature in 2024. Speaker 500:24:53Yes. So 2024 will be down relative to 23. It would have been down even more had it not been for those one times. When I talk about kind of a long range view on capital, I'm referencing off 23 as an initial point. So definitely Down quite a bit off what we see here in 2023 between Seneca and Gathering. Speaker 600:25:16Very helpful. Thank you. And then Would love your thoughts around M and A opportunities outside The upstream space, more on the regulated side, anything which you are seeing which is interesting for the company? And how are you thinking about Speaker 300:25:40Yes. Speaker 400:25:43I've said on past calls that growing the regulated side of our business is a priority. Quarter. When you look at our organic capital spend that will, as Tim said, keep us in kind of that mid single digits growth area. But getting more balance quickly would likely come through M and A and those deals tend Come every once in a while and we keep our eye out for what's out there and Hopefully, we'll see a deal happen. Speaker 600:26:24Got you. And in the meantime, you have This modernization spend and other rate cases which will help grow the regulated business in the over the next year. Okay. Speaker 200:26:34Thank you. Yes. Operator00:26:39And your next question comes from the line of Jon Abbott with Bank of America. Your line is open. Speaker 700:26:45Hey, good morning and thank you for taking our questions. Just going back to the E and P business and understanding the shift From your Western Development Area to Eastern Development Area. I mean you just mentioned that you expect CapEx to decline by maybe about 50 $100,000,000 versus what you expect in 2023. Can you just sort of provide any additional color On the underlying decline rates between the areas and just sort of how that underlying decline rate changes between the two areas Speaker 200:27:18Sure. So Speaker 500:27:20John, just to make sure level setting on the capital, Relative to 'twenty three, I would expect Seneca Plus gathering to decline by 50 to 150 per annum Speaker 200:27:32Over Speaker 500:27:32time as we shift to a true maintenance and some of that's driven by the capital efficiencies we'll see quarter. As a result of the better well productivity, over time, we currently are in the low 20% range on our overall decline rate. I would not anticipate that meaningfully changing. I think we'll still remain as one of the operators in Appalachia with a shallower overall decline. And so no meaningful shifts in that overall rate over multiple years that I'm foreseeing. Speaker 700:28:08Appreciate it. And the second question, I missed part of the opening remarks here and this question would be for Tim. But Tim, just with the regulated business, That range that you gave for next year, how do you think about that CapEx level over a multiyear horizon? Speaker 200:28:27Yes, it's a good question, Don. I think as Dave alluded to with the goal of trying to continue to grow The regulated businesses organically, I'd expect to see the pipeline business in the $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 area Really focused on the modernization efforts and emission reduction efforts. And that I think generates rate based growth in the call it low to mid single digit area. On the utility side, I would say it's a flatter capital trend, so $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 area, Continuing to grow the Pennsylvania side in terms of our modernization program given the availability of the disc mechanism there And continuing to replace 110 miles or so in New York each year. And so that translates into about $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 per annum. Operator00:29:32Our next question comes from the line of Trafird Lamar with Raymond James. Your line is open. Speaker 800:29:38Hey, guys. I appreciate the color on CapEx. I guess for Justin, I was going to ask kind of How should we view production cadence in 2024? I think you mentioned a 13 year old time that's finishing up. So just trying to get Speaker 500:29:58Sure. So as we kind of Enter 'twenty four, so call it, when October comes around, I would say we're not really quite Ramping, that should be part of the shoulder month. So really our plans are designed around ramping into the winter pricing, so in that kind of November, December timeframe. So we'll see our expectation is right now, we will see production meaningfully start going up As we get into November and then throughout December and continuing to increase in January February. And then over the balance of the year, that will trend. Speaker 500:30:37So you'll have a lot of growth kind of going into Q2. And then over the balance of the year that kind of flattening out and then declining again into the end of the year. So we really try to sculpt and as best we can manage our development plans to really take advantage of the seasonal pricing. That's One of the few things in gas prices you can somewhat rely on. And so we really try to work hard to sculpt our development plans around that. Speaker 800:31:04Great. Yes, that makes sense. And then for 2024 with activity Shifting to the EDA, you mentioned slightly higher cost per lateral foot via water management. I was going to see if you all could provide kind of a benchmark number for cost per foot for 2024? And then any color on what that kind of looks like once that transition is completed, assuming let's just say flat OFS. Speaker 500:31:33Yes. So Our Tioga Utica wells are kind of unique. When you think about most Northeast producers, they're developing Marcellus wells. We're developing These deeper Utica wells, more akin to what you see over in, say, the Ohio kind of deep Southern Utica play, And that's the kind of cost structure that we see. Kind of in terms of an overall well cost ballpark, That's in the $1400 to $1600 per foot. Speaker 500:32:07That's an all in number, which is Somewhat comparable to what you'd see for operators kind of in that same zip code over there. And The reason those or the balance to that is kind of what you see out of these wells. And so you get a Generally a very, very high pressure and you're able to flow these wells at sustained rates for many months Before beginning decline in EURs that are in excess of 2 Bs per 1,000. And we're drilling On average, these are north of 10,000 foot TLLs. So in the 11000 to 13000 foot is kind of an average round number. Speaker 500:32:51So that's where we expect to be. And then over time, as we transition more and more of our activity into the EDA, We would expect that to begin trending down, those overall well cost per foot. Speaker 800:33:05That's great. Thank you so much. Speaker 300:33:10Fiscal year. And there Operator00:33:10are no further questions at this time. Mr. Hassett, I'll turn the call back over to you. Speaker 100:33:16Thank you, Kayla. We'd like to thank everyone for taking time to be with us today. A replay of this call will be available this afternoon on both our website and by telephone and call and will run through the close of business on Thursday, August 11. To access the replay online, please visit our Investor Relations website at investor. Nationalfuelgas.com Speaker 200:33:43This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you and goodbye. Operator00:33:48This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallNational Fuel Gas Q3 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) National Fuel Gas Earnings HeadlinesNational Fuel Schedules Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference CallApril 10, 2025 | globenewswire.comScott Black's Strategic Moves: National Fuel Gas Co Leads the Portfolio AdditionsApril 8, 2025 | gurufocus.comGet Your Bank Account “Fed Invasion” Ready with THESE 4 Simple StepsStarting as soon as a few months from now, the United States government will make a sweeping change to bank accounts nationwide. It will give them unprecedented powers to control your bank account.April 15, 2025 | Weiss Ratings (Ad)Scott Black's Strategic Moves: National Fuel Gas Co Leads the Portfolio AdditionsApril 8, 2025 | uk.finance.yahoo.comNational Fuel Gas Co Announces Leadership TransitionApril 3, 2025 | gurufocus.comNational Fuel Announces Executive Management ChangeApril 3, 2025 | globenewswire.comSee More National Fuel Gas Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like National Fuel Gas? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on National Fuel Gas and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About National Fuel GasNational Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG) Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas utility services to various customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.View National Fuel Gas ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles Why Analysts Boosted United Airlines Stock Ahead of EarningsLamb Weston Stock Rises, Earnings Provide Calm Amidst ChaosIntuitive Machines Gains After Earnings Beat, NASA Missions AheadCintas Delivers Earnings Beat, Signals More Growth AheadNike Stock Dips on Earnings: Analysts Weigh in on What’s NextAfter Massive Post Earnings Fall, Does Hope Remain for MongoDB?Semtech Rallies on Earnings Beat—Is There More Upside? Upcoming Earnings ASML (4/16/2025)CSX (4/16/2025)Abbott Laboratories (4/16/2025)Kinder Morgan (4/16/2025)Prologis (4/16/2025)Travelers Companies (4/16/2025)U.S. Bancorp (4/16/2025)Netflix (4/17/2025)American Express (4/17/2025)Blackstone (4/17/2025) Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access for Free Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools. Start Your 30-Day Trial MarketBeat All Access Features Best-in-Class Portfolio Monitoring Get personalized stock ideas. Compare portfolio to indices. Check stock news, ratings, SEC filings, and more. Stock Ideas and Recommendations See daily stock ideas from top analysts. Receive short-term trading ideas from MarketBeat. Identify trending stocks on social media. Advanced Stock Screeners and Research Tools Use our seven stock screeners to find suitable stocks. Stay informed with MarketBeat's real-time news. Export data to Excel for personal analysis. Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. Sign In Create Account Your Email Address: Email Address Required Your Password: Password Required Log In or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google Forgot your password? Your Email Address: Please enter your email address. Please enter a valid email address Choose a Password: Please enter your password. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Create My Account (Free) or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google By creating a free account, you agree to our terms of service. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by. My name is Kayla Baker, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the National Fuel Gas Company Q3 Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Operator00:00:28I would now like to turn the call over to Director of Investor Relations, Brandon Haspitt. You may begin. Speaker 100:00:35Thank you, Kayla, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Dave Bauer, President and Chief Executive Officer Tim Silverstein, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer Justin Loweth, President of Seneca Resources and National Fuel Midstream. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will Speaker 200:00:56open the discussion to questions. Speaker 100:00:58The Q3 fiscal 2023 earnings release and August investor presentation have been posted on our Investor Relations website. You may refer to these materials during today's call. We'd like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith And are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as the date on which they are made and you may refer to last evening's earnings release Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Speaker 200:01:28Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Speaker 300:01:29Q3 fiscal Q4 listing of certain specific Speaker 100:01:30risk factors. Speaker 300:01:30With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave Bauer. Thanks, Brandon, Speaker 400:01:30and good morning, everyone. Last night, we reported adjusted operating results for the quarter of $1.01 per share. While generally in line with our expectations, earnings were down compared to last year. Appalachian production was up 6 Bcf versus last year, despite the impact of over 5 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter. But this was more than offset by the loss of earnings related to our California properties that were sold last June and sharply lower natural gas prices. Speaker 400:02:07Operationally, it was a good quarter across the company. Seneca continues to see excellent results from its development program, which has driven production to record levels. Cash unit operating costs were very much in line with expectations. Pricing, as I just said, was obviously a headwind for the quarter And will likely continue to be volatile through the fall, but our robust marketing and hedging portfolio minimized the impact to low in basin pricing and limited the amount of voluntary curtailments during the quarter. Longer term, we're constructed by natural gas prices As increasing LNG export capacity that starts ramping up in the next 12 to 24 months should drive increased natural gas demand. Speaker 400:02:50Quarter. Over time, our deep inventory of high quality drilling locations positions us well to take advantage of higher pricing. Our Midstream businesses had strong operational quarters as well. On the non regulated gathering side, Energy Midstream saw record gathering throughput from both Seneca and 3rd party producers. And our FERC regulated pipelines were able to capitalize on strong interest and Short Term Transportation Services. Speaker 400:03:16Over the past few months, volatility in locational pricing basis has created opportunities for our shippers call. The filing considers the numerous investments we've made in rate base, the overall increased expenses of our pipeline operations And the ongoing need for supply to invest in system modernization, including both regulatory driven and emission reductions projects. Q3 fiscal. Due rates will go into effect February 1, subject to refund. As you know, we have a good history of settling our pipeline rate cases. Speaker 400:03:55So I'm hopeful we can reach a settlement before then. Turning to the downstream business. In June, the Pennsylvania Utility Commission Approved the settlement of our recent rate case. Under that agreement, annual base rates increased by $23,000,000 effective August 1st. Construction season is well underway at the utility and both jurisdictions are on track to meet their mileage replacement targets. Speaker 400:04:19Quarter. As a reminder, we have a modernization tracker in New York that allows us to recover in near real time the investments we make in modernization through September 2024. Fiscal year 2020. In Pennsylvania, we plan to increase the pace of our modernization efforts and will likely seek a similar modernization tracking mechanism to begin recovering that investment. In June, our Board of Directors approved an $0.08 per share increase to our dividend, which continues our impressive track record. Speaker 400:04:47We paid a dividend for 121 consecutive years and increased it in each of the last 53 years. This is a streak that we're proud of And it's one we plan to continue well into the future. Based on the outlook for the business, I have every confidence we'll be able to do so. Looking to next year midpoint to midpoint, our initial fiscal 2024 earnings per share guidance is nearly 11% higher than our updated 2023 guidance. Quarter. Speaker 400:05:12This increase is driven by a number of factors, including higher expected production and natural gas price 2017 and 'twenty three. Most of the expected decreases at Seneca, where we anticipate capital will be about 7% lower than this year. During fiscal 2024, Seneca will moderate its activity level as we transition to a maintenance to low single digit growth rate by fiscal 2025. Call. We also plan to focus our development program more heavily in the Eastern Development area. Speaker 400:06:02It's been 3 years since we completed our large Coyote County acquisition call. And we recently closed on 3 additional modest acreage acquisitions in EDA that bolstered our position. Obviously, we like what we see there. Quarter. Well results are outstanding and we have more than a decade of high quality inventory. Speaker 400:06:20So it makes sense to increase our focus on those assets. Justin will have more to say on this later in the call. Capital spending at the regulated companies is expected to increase, Driven in large part by continued cost inflation coupled with the ramp up in the Pennsylvania modernization program I referenced earlier and the continued investment in modernization and emissions reduction projects at Supply Corp. This is a good use of free cash flow. Call. Speaker 400:06:46As I've said on past calls, growing the regulated side of the business is a priority and investment in rate base is a great way to generate durable earnings and cash flows quarter. In closing, we continue to see great operational results across the system. Call. As we look to fiscal 'twenty four and beyond, we remain focused on the efficient allocation of capital towards investments that deliver strong returns through commodity price cycles call, which generates sustainable earnings and cash flows that allow us to grow our dividend, further strengthen our balance sheet and improve our overall financial flexibility. Call. Speaker 400:07:21With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin. Speaker 500:07:24Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Seneca and NFU Midstream wrapped up another strong operational quarter with record production and throughput. Seneca reported 3rd quarter production of 94.8 Bcfe, an increase of 2% over the 2nd quarter 7% above last year's Q3 Appalachian production, notwithstanding the over 5 Bcf impact of third party pipeline downtime and voluntary pricing related curtailments. Looking to the balance of the fiscal year, we are revising our fiscal 2023 production guidance range to 370 Bcfe to 380 Bcfe. Seneca is moving forward with its plan to push back the online timing of 2 pads to early fiscal 2024 to take advantage of higher expected winter pricing. Speaker 500:08:07As a result, we expect 4th quarter production will be slightly down relative to the 3rd quarter. Through multiple pricing cycles over the last decade, we have maintained a philosophy of curtailing production when spot pricing is depressed, call. And our experience and detailed analysis still support this approach. Our reservoir characteristics and coordinated marketing and operations teams Allow us to ramp production up and down through volatile periods like the one we're experiencing. Given our expectation that in basin pricing will continue to be depressed call. Speaker 500:08:47I will note, however, that our guidance as usual does not account for the potential impact of further voluntary pricing related curtailments. Moving to fiscal 'twenty four production guidance, we anticipate a 7% increase to a range of 390 to 4.10 Bcfe. We are targeting 19 wells to be turned in line during November December and additional pads in January February, which are expected to drive production higher in late Q1 and into Q2 to take advantage of winter pricing. Overall, supply demand dynamics have begun to improve, call, which we expect will set up for a strong natural gas price recovery as a new wave of LNG demand ramps up in late 'twenty four and beyond. Quarter. Speaker 500:09:27While the fundamentals are setting up for a more favorable longer term pricing environment, our robust hedge book provides a significant level of downside protection at attractive prices. Quarter. Over the past few quarters, we have continued to methodically layer in new hedges as the market is allowed, and we currently have over 280 Bcf locked in with a combination of hedges and fixed price firm sales for fiscal 2024. We also have firm transportation and firm sales covering 88% of production at the midpoint of guidance. Moving to capital, we are increasing our fiscal '23 capital guidance to a range of $575,000,000 to $600,000,000 During the first half of the year, we were running 2 rigs in an intermittent top hole rig. Speaker 500:10:11In addition, we had a spot frac crew operating in the EDA as well as our dedicated frac crew in the WDA. Going forward, we do not have any additional top hole work planned. And in late May, Seneca moved to a single dedicated electric frac crew. This crew is currently operating in the EDA call, where we recently completed a 6 well pad and are now completing a 13 well pad. While overall capital spending has moderated, our water management costs have trended higher, Which is now reflected in our fiscal 'twenty three and 'twenty four estimates. Speaker 500:10:44Moving to fiscal 'twenty four, capital is forecasted to decrease totaling over $35,000,000 which are expected to offset what would otherwise be a more pronounced capital decrease. Call. These include a seismic shoot in Tioga, long term investments in water infrastructure that will provide cost and efficiency benefits to our future development program and a larger land driven budget driven by a 2,500 acre lease in Lycoming County that we expect to close during the quarter. Regarding service costs, we're seeing costs moderate and expect a slight tailwind next year. Tubular pricing is trending down quarter and both rig and frac rates seem to have peaked earlier this year and are holding steady or have decreased from those levels. Speaker 500:11:37Call, though costs are still elevated compared to long term contract pricing from a year ago. Looking out longer term, Based on current Ford NYMEX prices and consistent with prior plans, we expect to moderate activity and will target maintenance to low single digit long term production growth and fiscal 2025 and beyond. Further, we expect to continue to transition to primarily EDA development, quarter, which is supported by over a decade of highly prolific development inventory. While returns on our WDA wells are strong, The expected well productivity in the EDA is superior to that of the wells in the WDA. The transition to an EDA focused development program is expected to drive long term capital efficiency and higher free cash flow as we continue to focus on optimizing well costs and development plans. Speaker 500:12:25Call. We are fortunate to have almost entirely fee acreage in the WDA that will never expire, allowing us to prioritize the EDA call, where we can develop our most economic acreage now while preserving the ability to develop our WA acreage once additional out of basin takeaway capacity is available, We continue to develop opportunities to grow 3rd party volumes by fully utilizing our significant wholly owned gathering systems. We are having a terrific year with 3rd party system throughput at record levels, exceeding 16 Bcf in the 3rd quarter. We also have significant construction underway in Tioga County as we build out infrastructure to support Seneca's long term development plans in the EDA. Quarter. Speaker 500:13:13Overall, our Appalachian development program remains well positioned to generate sustained free cash flow, focusing on prudently deploying capital through commodity price cycles. By leveraging our integrated model and maintaining our focus on cost structure, while steadfastly promoting our safety culture and sustainability initiatives, quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim. Speaker 200:13:37Thanks, Justin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, National Fuel reported 3rd quarter GAAP earnings of $1 per share. Excluding some minor items relating to unrealized gains that impact comparability, call. Our adjusted operating results were $1.01 per share, a decrease of $0.53 from last year's Q3. Dave hit on the major drivers, call. Speaker 200:13:56So I did want to note that last year's Q3 reflected approximately $0.15 per share of earnings related to our California assets. We closed Speaker 300:14:04on that sale in June 2022, so this will be Speaker 200:14:06the last quarter where we see a year over year impact. The remainder of the results for the quarter were relatively straightforward and discussed in detail in last night's earnings release. Given that, I'll spend some time talking about our outlook for the remainder of this year and for fiscal 2024. Quarter. Starting with this year, we've narrowed our earnings guidance to a range of $5.15 to $5.25 per share. Speaker 200:14:29Quarter. This reflects the price related curtailments Justin discussed and modest tweaks to some of our other guidance assumptions. We are well hedged for the remainder of the year with approximately 80% of our production protected from pricing changes. Additionally, we have firm sales in place for quarter. As we look to fiscal 2024, the outlook is strong across the company, where each of our segments is expected to see meaningful earnings growth. Speaker 200:15:03We are initiating earnings guidance with a range of $5.50 to $6 per share, an increase of 11% at the midpoint. Quarter. Starting with our regulated businesses, we are anticipating significant earnings growth, primarily driven by top line revenue increases. In Pennsylvania, our recent rate case settlement is expected to increase annual margin by $23,000,000 We've also agreed to a new weather normalization mechanism Speaker 300:15:31quarter that will dampen volatility during the winter Speaker 200:15:32heating season. In New York, we are projecting an $8,000,000 margin increase from our 2 pipeline modernization trackers. Our ability to add new investments to our original system modernization tracker ended in March. However, we are still able to recover the investments made prior to the sunset date. That tracker was supplemented with a new system improvement tracker, which allows us to recover on the investments made after March 31st this year. Speaker 200:15:55Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q4 fiscal Q3 fiscal Q4. Quarter. And that is reflected in our initial guidance. On the O and M side, we are projecting a 5% increase in our regulated businesses versus the prior year. This is driven by ongoing increases in labor expense, expanded regulatory compliance costs at both the state and federal levels and the inflationary impacts on contractor and material costs. Speaker 200:16:25Notwithstanding these projected cost headwinds, we still expect to deliver significant regulated earnings growth. Switching to our non regulated segments, there are 2 major drivers behind our expected year over year increase in earnings. First, Our fiscal 2024 guidance assumes a $3.25 per MMBtu average NYMEX natural gas price. While this represents a $0.35 decrease from this year, the value of our hedge book increases meaningfully next year. As a result, we expect our average realized natural gas price will be approximately $0.10 higher than fiscal 2023. Speaker 200:17:00Pricing continues to move around. So for reference, the $0.25 change in NYMEX equates to a $0.28 change in earnings per share. When coupling higher realized prices with an expected 25 Bcfe increase in natural gas production at the midpoint of our guidance, Seneca is positioned to deliver meaningful earnings growth next year. The growth in production also accrues to the benefit of our Gathering segment. Our midpoint to midpoint revenues are expected to increase by $20,000,000 quarter. Speaker 200:17:28On the cost side of things, we are expecting Seneca's cash unit cost to remain relative or roughly flat. On a per unit basis, Modestly higher LOE is expected to be largely offset by lower other taxes related to the Pennsylvania impact fee, which is based on average calendar year NYMEX prices. We also expect a $0.05 per Mcfe increase in projected DD and A expense. This is in line with our expectation of DD and A Trending towards our long term F and D rate of approximately $0.70 per Mcfe. Turning to capital, we've increased our 2023 guidance range by approximately $50,000,000 at the midpoint, principally driven by the increase at Seneca that Justin discussed earlier. Speaker 200:18:09The other changes are minor and are largely related to the timing of construction activity. With our fiscal year end occurring in the middle of the pipeline construction season, many projects straddle fiscal years and the timing of capital can move around. Looking at fiscal 2024, we've initiated capital guidance with a range of $865,000,000 to $975,000,000 this represents a 2% decrease from fiscal 2023 at the midpoint. Overall, the decrease expected in our non regulated businesses is largely offset with anticipated increases in spending in our Regulated Utility and Pipeline and Storage segments. Given the importance of safety and reliability quarter. Speaker 200:18:48And the substantial system integrity and emissions focused regulatory requirements for these operations, we believe it is prudent to continue to invest significantly in our modernization programs in each of our jurisdictions. We expect that this pipeline of investments funded with our internally generated cash flows will drive mid single digit rate base growth over the next several years, providing stable, predictable returns for our shareholders. Call. We believe this is an attractive way to deliver value and supports our ability to continue to grow our dividend over the long term. Bringing it all together, we are now expecting this year's cash flow from operations to exceed capital expenditures by approximately $325,000,000 Speaker 300:19:29This is more than sufficient Speaker 200:19:30to cover our dividend and the $150,000,000 of upstream acquisitions this fiscal year. Looking to fiscal 2024, We expect our cash from operations to exceed capital spending by $165,000,000 The primary reason for the decrease relative to 2023 call is expected to return to more normalized levels of working capital. As you may recall, we are projecting a large source of working capital this year and will likely remain in that range over the course of fiscal 2024. This gives us a great deal of flexibility and positions us well to navigate challenges or execute on potential opportunities that come our way. As we look beyond 2024, the outlook for our business remains strong. Speaker 200:20:21Floor prices for natural gas are around $4 per MMBtu. We continue to layer in hedges to lock in the high returns we generate at these prices. Seneca's capital is expected to decrease and the modernization programs in our regulated businesses provide the path towards steady, value accretive growth for many years to come. With this outlook, we are well positioned to increase our long standing dividend, further improve our leverage profile and deliver long term value to our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions. Operator00:20:57Star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Speaker 300:21:01We'll take Operator00:21:01our first question from Yumeng Chaudhary with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Speaker 600:21:06Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Speaker 400:21:09Good morning. Good morning. Speaker 600:21:12My first question was on this high grading, which you're doing towards the Eastern Development Program. You have this one time impact of $35,000,000 next year. But as you think about the program from a multiyear basis, can you talk us through what kind of efficiency gains we should expect And then also just on the near term, any color you can provide in terms of why the CapEx increase For FY 'twenty three. Thank you. Speaker 500:21:46Sure. I'll start with the near term just kind of some of the increase we've seen here of late. Really the Drivers behind fiscal 2023 going up is the first half of the year, we had a significant amount of Significant program going on with, in particular, spot completion activity, and that was at a time when rates were quite high. So our capital was running A little bit high. But ultimately, as we work through the second half of the year, we've been seeing Additional costs, particularly related to what I noted on the water management, mostly related to increased water hauling as we continue to have more operations In the EDA on some elevated trucking rates. Speaker 500:22:34These costs, we view them as transitory and evolving over time. So kind of pivoting into the longer term plan and how the move to the EDA will really benefit our long term efficiencies, gains and capital levels over time. We have significantly better well productivity in our EDA Utica in particular, quarter where we have a very deep inventory following the acquisitions we've completed over the last few years and we've really validated The well performance there and the quality of our position and what we should expect going forward. So Moving to an area with more well productivity both in terms of the deliverability of the wells early in their life, holding flat at restricted rates of $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 a day for many months in higher EURs will really benefit us over time. And we'll be shifting I know a good chunk of our activity and development into the EDA here over the next year to 2 As that ramps up, there are some one time costs associated with doing that, and largely related to the continued build out of infrastructure that will benefit us for many years to come. Speaker 500:23:56So mentioned water related infrastructure project. And then also I've been talking about some of the projects at our gathering business where we're investing in things like centralized compression and dehydration, which You'll have some of initial upfront capital, but really benefit O and M over time. So big picture, putting it all together, we would expect Increased capital efficiency is a result of this. And as we move into more of a maintenance, Then we would expect capital overall capital levels for Seneca and Gathering to shift down to $50,000,000 to $150,000,000 below Fiscal 2023 levels. Speaker 600:24:37And just to be sure that excluding the $35,000,000 of one time charges, right? So $55,000,000 taking all the $35,000,000 as well, which is one time in nature in 2024. Speaker 500:24:53Yes. So 2024 will be down relative to 23. It would have been down even more had it not been for those one times. When I talk about kind of a long range view on capital, I'm referencing off 23 as an initial point. So definitely Down quite a bit off what we see here in 2023 between Seneca and Gathering. Speaker 600:25:16Very helpful. Thank you. And then Would love your thoughts around M and A opportunities outside The upstream space, more on the regulated side, anything which you are seeing which is interesting for the company? And how are you thinking about Speaker 300:25:40Yes. Speaker 400:25:43I've said on past calls that growing the regulated side of our business is a priority. Quarter. When you look at our organic capital spend that will, as Tim said, keep us in kind of that mid single digits growth area. But getting more balance quickly would likely come through M and A and those deals tend Come every once in a while and we keep our eye out for what's out there and Hopefully, we'll see a deal happen. Speaker 600:26:24Got you. And in the meantime, you have This modernization spend and other rate cases which will help grow the regulated business in the over the next year. Okay. Speaker 200:26:34Thank you. Yes. Operator00:26:39And your next question comes from the line of Jon Abbott with Bank of America. Your line is open. Speaker 700:26:45Hey, good morning and thank you for taking our questions. Just going back to the E and P business and understanding the shift From your Western Development Area to Eastern Development Area. I mean you just mentioned that you expect CapEx to decline by maybe about 50 $100,000,000 versus what you expect in 2023. Can you just sort of provide any additional color On the underlying decline rates between the areas and just sort of how that underlying decline rate changes between the two areas Speaker 200:27:18Sure. So Speaker 500:27:20John, just to make sure level setting on the capital, Relative to 'twenty three, I would expect Seneca Plus gathering to decline by 50 to 150 per annum Speaker 200:27:32Over Speaker 500:27:32time as we shift to a true maintenance and some of that's driven by the capital efficiencies we'll see quarter. As a result of the better well productivity, over time, we currently are in the low 20% range on our overall decline rate. I would not anticipate that meaningfully changing. I think we'll still remain as one of the operators in Appalachia with a shallower overall decline. And so no meaningful shifts in that overall rate over multiple years that I'm foreseeing. Speaker 700:28:08Appreciate it. And the second question, I missed part of the opening remarks here and this question would be for Tim. But Tim, just with the regulated business, That range that you gave for next year, how do you think about that CapEx level over a multiyear horizon? Speaker 200:28:27Yes, it's a good question, Don. I think as Dave alluded to with the goal of trying to continue to grow The regulated businesses organically, I'd expect to see the pipeline business in the $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 area Really focused on the modernization efforts and emission reduction efforts. And that I think generates rate based growth in the call it low to mid single digit area. On the utility side, I would say it's a flatter capital trend, so $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 area, Continuing to grow the Pennsylvania side in terms of our modernization program given the availability of the disc mechanism there And continuing to replace 110 miles or so in New York each year. And so that translates into about $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 per annum. Operator00:29:32Our next question comes from the line of Trafird Lamar with Raymond James. Your line is open. Speaker 800:29:38Hey, guys. I appreciate the color on CapEx. I guess for Justin, I was going to ask kind of How should we view production cadence in 2024? I think you mentioned a 13 year old time that's finishing up. So just trying to get Speaker 500:29:58Sure. So as we kind of Enter 'twenty four, so call it, when October comes around, I would say we're not really quite Ramping, that should be part of the shoulder month. So really our plans are designed around ramping into the winter pricing, so in that kind of November, December timeframe. So we'll see our expectation is right now, we will see production meaningfully start going up As we get into November and then throughout December and continuing to increase in January February. And then over the balance of the year, that will trend. Speaker 500:30:37So you'll have a lot of growth kind of going into Q2. And then over the balance of the year that kind of flattening out and then declining again into the end of the year. So we really try to sculpt and as best we can manage our development plans to really take advantage of the seasonal pricing. That's One of the few things in gas prices you can somewhat rely on. And so we really try to work hard to sculpt our development plans around that. Speaker 800:31:04Great. Yes, that makes sense. And then for 2024 with activity Shifting to the EDA, you mentioned slightly higher cost per lateral foot via water management. I was going to see if you all could provide kind of a benchmark number for cost per foot for 2024? And then any color on what that kind of looks like once that transition is completed, assuming let's just say flat OFS. Speaker 500:31:33Yes. So Our Tioga Utica wells are kind of unique. When you think about most Northeast producers, they're developing Marcellus wells. We're developing These deeper Utica wells, more akin to what you see over in, say, the Ohio kind of deep Southern Utica play, And that's the kind of cost structure that we see. Kind of in terms of an overall well cost ballpark, That's in the $1400 to $1600 per foot. Speaker 500:32:07That's an all in number, which is Somewhat comparable to what you'd see for operators kind of in that same zip code over there. And The reason those or the balance to that is kind of what you see out of these wells. And so you get a Generally a very, very high pressure and you're able to flow these wells at sustained rates for many months Before beginning decline in EURs that are in excess of 2 Bs per 1,000. And we're drilling On average, these are north of 10,000 foot TLLs. So in the 11000 to 13000 foot is kind of an average round number. Speaker 500:32:51So that's where we expect to be. And then over time, as we transition more and more of our activity into the EDA, We would expect that to begin trending down, those overall well cost per foot. Speaker 800:33:05That's great. Thank you so much. Speaker 300:33:10Fiscal year. And there Operator00:33:10are no further questions at this time. Mr. Hassett, I'll turn the call back over to you. Speaker 100:33:16Thank you, Kayla. We'd like to thank everyone for taking time to be with us today. A replay of this call will be available this afternoon on both our website and by telephone and call and will run through the close of business on Thursday, August 11. To access the replay online, please visit our Investor Relations website at investor. Nationalfuelgas.com Speaker 200:33:43This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you and goodbye. Operator00:33:48This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by