NYSE:RDN Radian Group Q2 2023 Earnings Report $23.34 -0.01 (-0.04%) As of 03:19 PM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast CAE EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.91Consensus EPS $0.76Beat/MissBeat by +$0.15One Year Ago EPSN/ACAE Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$278.85 millionExpected Revenue$289.10 millionBeat/MissMissed by -$10.25 millionYoY Revenue GrowthN/ACAE Announcement DetailsQuarterQ2 2023Date8/2/2023TimeN/AConference Call DateThursday, August 3, 2023Conference Call Time12:00PM ETUpcoming EarningsCAE's Q4 2025 earnings is scheduled for Monday, May 26, 2025, with a conference call scheduled on Thursday, May 29, 2025 at 7:00 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by CAE Q2 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrAugust 3, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 8 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Radiance Group's 2nd Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Operator00:00:25Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to John Damian, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:40Thank you, and welcome to Radian's Q2 2023 conference call. Our press release, Which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website atwww.radine.com. This press release includes certain non GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call, including adjusted pre tax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share and adjusted net operating return on equity. In addition, specifically for our HomeGenius segment, other non GAAP measures in our press release that may be discussed today include adjusted gross profit and adjusted pre tax operating income or loss before allocated corporate operating expenses. A complete description of all of our non GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. Speaker 100:01:41These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website. Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer And Sumita Pandit, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q and A portion of the call is Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward looking statements. These statements are based on Current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. Speaker 100:02:13For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our 2022 Form 10 ks and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Rick. Speaker 200:02:34Good afternoon and thank you all for joining us today. I am pleased to report another solid quarter for Radian. GAAP revenues grew year over year to $290,000,000 We generated net income of $146,000,000 Our annualized return on equity was 14.1% in the 2nd quarter. Book value per share increased 12% year over year to $26.51 We paid a $35,000,000 dividend to Stockholders reflecting the highest yielding dividend in the industry and our overall liquidity and capital positions remained very strong, which I will cover in a few minutes. Despite continued headwinds in the mortgage and real estate markets and continuing macroeconomic uncertainty, Our overall performance in the Q2 reflects the resilience of our business model, the strength of our growing insured portfolio, The depth of our customer relationships and the commitment of our team. Speaker 200:03:36Our team remains focused across our three areas of Strategic value creation, growing the economic value and future earnings of our mortgage insurance portfolio, positioning our HomeGenius business on a path to Profitability and value creation and prudently managing our capital resources. In terms of growing the economic value and future Earnings of our mortgage insurance portfolio, we continue to leverage our proprietary analytics and radar rates platform focused on driving economic value, while calibrating our dynamic risk based pricing to capitalize on the opportunities that we see in the current market. As a result, we wrote $16,900,000,000 of high quality mortgage insurance business in the Q2 of 2023. And we expect to see continued opportunity to put our capital to work at attractive risk adjusted returns. Our primary mortgage insurance in force, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company, grew 5% year over year to $267,000,000,000 As a reminder, during our Investor Day in June, we provided examples of the potential future earnings embedded in our current in force portfolio, which is not included in our current book value. Speaker 200:04:53Our persistency rate remains strong. Given the current interest rate In the comparatively low mortgage rates across our portfolio, we expect our persistency rate to remain high, which is positive for future insurance in force We continue to see positive credit performance in our mortgage insurance portfolio during the quarter. Although we generally expect new notices of default to increase in the future as the portfolio naturally seasons, In the Q2, we saw the number of new defaults decreased as compared to the Q1 and Cures outpaced new defaults From a quality perspective, our mortgage insurance portfolio has been well underwritten and has a strong overall credit profile. And it is important to note that the quality of the mortgage industry's loan manufacturing and servicing processes remain strong, including extensive efforts to support borrowers experiencing hardship. It is also worth noting that the increase in interest rates has resulted in higher yields across our $6,000,000,000 investment portfolio, which Generates incremental income that flows directly to our bottom line. Speaker 200:06:06With regards to our HomeGenius business, Although we saw a small increase in revenues in the Q2 as compared to the Q1, as I noted during our Investor Day, the businesses that make up our HomeGenius segment Continue to be challenged by current market conditions, including higher interest rates and limited inventory, which has constrained mortgage and real estate activity. We are managing the HomeGenius segment through this challenging environment by focusing on disciplined cost management, including staff reductions to better align our expenses and resources to the current market and the opportunities we see ahead. As I mentioned during our Investor Day, we believe we have a differentiated and valuable solution in our Home GS business based on the depth of the market relationships, A national footprint across our businesses, our unique real estate data and analytics assets, our innovative digital platforms Leveraging advanced technologies, including AI and computer vision, and of course, an experienced and talented team. We maintain a realistic view of the current state and opportunity for HomeGenius and we will continue to adjust our cost structure and align our strategy and investments to place HomeGenius on a path to profitability. And in terms of managing our capital resources, Total holding company liquidity increased to $1,300,000,000 We continue to expect Radian Guaranty to Pay $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of ordinary dividends during 2023, of which $200,000,000 has already been paid. Speaker 200:07:42Rating Guaranty maintains a strong PMIERs position with excess available assets of 1 point 7 Or 41% over its minimum required assets. It is also important to note that in the second quarter, Tender offers were completed on 2 outstanding Eagle Re Insurance Link notes that were no longer providing the same level of PMIERs Capital Relief that they had previously. Samiththa will provide more detail on both the current period impact and the long term financial benefit of these transactions. And we continue to execute our aggregate, manage and distribute mortgage insurance business model, including The placement of a new quota share reinsurance agreement for new business written through June 30, 2024. We believe the strength of our capital position significantly enhances our financial flexibility now and going forward. Speaker 200:08:37As Sumit has shared during our Investor Day, We are in an enviable position of having significant optionality regarding uses of our capital. We take a deliberate and balanced approach to capital allocation, which we believe has uniquely positioned us to deliver value to stockholders. And it's important to note that our capital plan is never static As we strive to maintain flexibility to successfully respond to potential changes in the environment, particularly in this uncertain Economy. As we have noted previously, we carefully consider the balance between organic growth In order to deploy capital back into our business at the most attractive risk adjusted returns, the return of capital to stockholders, which is an area we have differentiated from our peers and inorganic growth investment opportunities. Over the years, we have consistently demonstrated a strategic focus on the optimization of our capital structure And many of you have highlighted our effectiveness in unlocking trapped capital wherever feasible. Speaker 200:09:44Let me share a few thoughts on the mortgage and housing markets. In terms of the mortgage market, for 2023, recent mortgage industry origination forecasts Call for bottoming out of the origination market with a decline of approximately 27% compared to last year, followed by a return to growth in 2024. It is important to note that the market decline has been largely driven by a decrease in refinance volume. And while the purchase market is down 15% from last year, it is expected to be slightly higher than the pre pandemic level A volume in 2019. As I've mentioned before, purchase volume represents the vast majority of our business, including homebuyers seeking a more affordable Down payment for their first home. Speaker 200:10:32Based on the total mortgage origination market of $1,700,000,000,000 We expect the private mortgage insurance market in 2023 to be approximately $325,000,000,000 which is at the high end of our prior guidance. Volume is projected to be driven primarily by purchase loans, which are Estimated to be $1,400,000,000,000 Excluding the pandemic years of 2020 through 2022, This would represent the largest purchase market in the past 16 years. We view these collective factors as a positive sign of a Strong and more stable purchase mortgage origination market. In terms of the housing market, while there continues to be a significant imbalance In housing supply and demand, we have seen housing prices stabilize and more recently begin to rebound. As we mentioned during our Investor Day, first time homebuyer demand is strong with large millennial and Gen Z generations either being in or And while the low inventory and strong market demand continue to create challenges for first time homebuyers, These dynamics help to mitigate downside risk in terms of home values, which is a positive for our insured portfolio. Speaker 200:11:51We believe the resulting pent up demand provides strong support for continuing purchase market growth in 2024 and beyond. As such, our overall outlook for the housing market remains generally positive over the near and long term. As you've heard me say before, our company is Built to withstand economic cycles. Significantly strengthened by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk based pricing and the distribution of risk into the capital and reinsurance markets. Sumita will now cover the details of our financial position. Speaker 200:12:27Many of you met her during our Investor Day and this is her first Quarterly earnings call at Radian since being appointed Chief Financial Officer in May. Since joining Radian earlier this year, She has made significant contribution across the organization and I'm very pleased to have her on the team. I also want to personally thank Rob Quigley, our EVP, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer and Dan Cobell, EVP of Finance for the important interim role they played during this transition. Their leadership, strategic insight An outstanding counsel have been and continue to be incredibly valuable to me and to the broader Radian team. Now, I will turn the call over to Sumitha. Speaker 300:13:10Thank you, Rick. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to provide additional details about our 2nd quarter results, which reflect another strong quarter of performance highlighted by the continued growth of our high quality mortgage insurance portfolio as well as by the strength and flexibility of our capital and liquidity positions. As reported last night, in the Q2 of 2023, We earned GAAP net income of $146,000,000 or $0.91 per diluted share compared to $0.98 per diluted Share in the Q1. Adjusted diluted net operating income per share for the quarter was also $0.91 compared to $0.98 per share in the Q1 as reflected in the reconciliations provided in Exhibit G of our press release. Speaker 300:13:59We produced a 14.1 percent annualized return on equity for the quarter and grew our book value per share 12% year over year to 26 point Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we generated $290,000,000 in total revenues during the Q2 compared to $311,000,000 in the first Our total revenues and net premiums earned in the 2nd quarter were reduced by a one time increase in ceded premiums earned of $21,000,000 This was due to tender offers by certain Eagle reissuers during the period To purchase the notes that supported the reinsurance agreements with Radian Guaranty, we are very pleased with the tender offer results, particularly since these transactions were no longer providing the level of PMIERs Capital benefit to Radian Guaranty that they provided in prior years. Based on current projections and expectations, we expect Radian Guaranty to save approximately 50 $8,000,000 of future ceded premiums over time as a result of these tenders, including a full recovery of the $21,000,000 of the Excluding the $21,000,000 impact of the tender offers, Our total revenue would have increased by 9% year over year and our net premium yield and net premiums earned would have been in line with the first Quarter of 2023. Speaker 300:15:35Exhibit D in our press release provides details on the various components of our net premiums earned And Slide 7 highlights the $0.10 reduction these tender offers had on our net income per share during the quarter. The 2 most significant and consistent drivers of our net premiums earned remain the size and average Premium yield of our large in force mortgage insurance portfolio. Our primary insurance in force grew 5% year over year to 260 $7,000,000,000 as of June 30. Contributing to the growth of our insurance in force was $16,900,000,000 of new insurance written for the 2nd quarter compared to $11,300,000,000 in the first quarter. We were able to achieve this growth quarter over quarter while continuing to increase pricing As discussed in our Investor Day last month, using the base economic scenario assumptions And inputs outlined in our presentation, our primary insurance in force is expected to be the most significant driver of our future results With embedded future earnings from the existing portfolio as of the Q1 estimated to be approximately $2,600,000,000 While the industry wide decrease in purchase and refinance originations has provided headwinds over the past year for our new insurance written, It has significantly benefited the persistency rate of our insurance in force, which remained high at 83% in the second quarter based on the trailing 12 months compared to 72% a year ago. Speaker 300:17:15We expect our persistency rates to remain strong given the The uprise in mortgage rates last year following an extended period of very low rates. 77% of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 5% or less as of the end of the second quarter and is therefore less likely to cancel in the near term due to refinancing. As shown on Slide 13 and consistent with our prior expectations, the in force portfolio premium yield Our mortgage insurance portfolio remains stable in the 2nd quarter at 38.2 basis points, comparable to the level reported at year end 2022. With strong persistency rates and the current industry pricing environment, we continue to expect the in force portfolio premium yield to remain relatively flat over the course of 2023, while the total net yield of our insured portfolio can fluctuate from period to period due to other factors such as changes in our risk distribution programs, profit commissions earned and single premium policy cancellations. The higher interest rate environment has also increased our investment income, which grew 37% year over year to $64,000,000 in this quarter. Speaker 300:18:27As shown on webcast Slide 9, our total investment portfolio of $6,000,000,000 consists of well diversified highly rated securities. We have significant diversification and conservatism built into the composition of our portfolio, which includes not only diversification between asset classes, but also across industry segments, obligate tenors and in securitized assets across geographies, collateral, vintage and issuers. The book yield on our investment portfolio increased during the Q2 from 3.8 percentage to 4% at quarter end and the higher rate environment should continue to be positive for the reinvestment of future cash flows. While the impact has moderated in 2023, Rising interest rates have created an unrealized loss on our investment portfolio reported in AOCI net of tax, which was $424,000,000 as of the end of the second quarter. Our book value fully reflects the fair value and unrealized losses of our investments As we do not classify any of our investment securities as held to maturity carried at amortized cost. Speaker 300:19:36We do not Expect to realize these losses given our ability to hold these securities to maturity as they trend to par due to our significant positive operating cash flows and Our HomeGenius segment revenues totaled $15,000,000 for the 2nd quarter compared to $13,000,000 for the As Rick mentioned, this segment continues to be negatively impacted by the higher rate environment and industry wide decline in mortgage and real estate transactions. Moving to our provision for losses, the positive trends that we have been experiencing continued into the most recent quarter. As noted on Slide 16, we had a net benefit of $22,000,000 in our mortgage provision for losses in the 2nd quarter compared to a net benefit of $17,000,000 in the Q1. The positive benefits in recent periods have been due primarily to default Strong home price appreciation experienced in recent years. For the Q2, the net benefit to our mortgage Provision was the result of $63,000,000 of benefit from reserve development on prior period defaults due to favorable cure trends. Speaker 300:20:55We are also seeing the benefit of higher claim withdrawals by services. The reserve releases were partially offset by $41,000,000 of loss provision for new defaults reported during the quarter. On Slide 17, we note that the number of new defaults reported to us by services declined in the Q2 2023 to 9,800 from 10,600 in the Q1. Consistent with recent quarters, we maintained our default to Aim rate frequency assumption for new defaults at 8%. Our ending primary default inventory As of June 30, we're slightly under 20,000 loans, representing a portfolio default rate of 1.98%. Speaker 300:21:42Turning to our other expenses. For the Q2, our other operating expenses totaled $90,000,000 An increase compared to $83,000,000 recognized in the Q1. Expenses in the second quarter were elevated due to the timing of Expenses for the quarter included $4,000,000 related to share based incentive grants and $2,000,000 of severance expenses related to our HomeGenius segment. Based on our expense savings actions to date and consistent with our previous guidance, we continue to anticipate our 2023 full year consolidated Cost of service and other operating expenses to be $380,000,000 to $400,000,000 This would represent a reduction in these total expenses in line with the higher end of our prior guidance of $60,000,000 to $80,000,000 or 13% to 17% compared to last year. Moving finally to our capital and available liquidity. Speaker 300:22:47Based on current performance expectations and consistent with our prior guidance, we Expect Radian Guaranty to pay between $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of ordinary dividends to Radian Group for the full year 2023. Year to date, Radian Guaranty has already paid $200,000,000 of ordinary dividends to Radian Group. Radian Guaranty's excess PMIERs available assets over minimum required assets remain stable at $1,700,000,000 That's a 41% BeMyers cushion. Our available holding company liquidity increased from $956,000,000 to slightly over $1,000,000,000 during the quarter. This increase was net of the payment of our quarterly dividend to Radian Group stockholders of $0.225 per share totaling $35,000,000 and the purchase of 229,000 shares at Total cost of $5,000,000 under our value based share repurchase program. Speaker 300:23:47As Rick mentioned earlier, consistent with Use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk. In July 2020 Radiant Guaranty entered into a quota share reinsurance arrangement with a panel of 3rd party reinsurance providers. Under the 2023 QSR agreement, we expect to cede risks related to 22.5% of policies Issued between July 1, 2023 June 30, 2024, subject to certain conditions. To recap, our results for this quarter once again highlight the consistent earnings and cash flows generated from our business model. We believe our financial position has never been stronger given our significant holding company liquidity, sizable PMIERs cushion at Radian Guaranty and the future embedded earnings in our high quality mortgage insurance in force portfolio. Speaker 300:24:44As illustrated using the assumptions and inputs outlined in our Today's presentation last month, even under a stress macroeconomic scenario that includes a severe decline in home prices Consistent with the great financial crisis, we expect to remain resilient and generate positive earnings each year, grow book value, maintain adequate PMIERs cushion and have significant ordinary dividend capacity at Radian Guaranty. I will now turn the call back over to Rick. Speaker 200:25:14Thank you, Samantha. Before we open the call to your questions, I want to highlight that we are Pleased with our results and remain focused on executing our strategic plans. We are driving operational excellence across our businesses and aligning our overall Our $267,000,000,000 Mortgage insurance portfolio is highly valuable and is expected to deliver significant earnings going forward. We continue to strategically manage capital by maintaining strong holding company liquidity and PMIERs cushion, While expecting to continue to pay ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group, opportunistically repurchasing shares and paying the highest yielding dividend in the industry to stockholders. And finally, I want to recognize our team Operator00:26:21Thank you. Please standby while we compile the Q and A roster. And our first question comes from the line of Bose George with KBW. Your line is now open. Speaker 400:26:53Everyone, good afternoon. I wanted to ask first just about share buybacks. You've obviously been somewhat quieter on that front the last couple of quarters. Just help us think about When we could see more activity there? Speaker 300:27:08Thanks, Bose. Hi, this is Sumitha here. It's nice to speak with all of you today. So I think Bose, we are taking a pretty deliberate and measured approach to how we think about our Capital return given the uncertain economy. As far as our share return in this year is concerned, in the first half of this year, We've returned about $90,000,000 to shareholders, including dividends and share repurchases. Speaker 300:27:35We do have a strong track record of As you know, we've returned about $1,750,000,000 of capital over the last 5 years. We've bought back approximately 1 third of our Outstanding shares in a similar time period. And we think that it is prudent for us to hold some excess capital Given the uncertain macroeconomic environment, I think if you look at our ROEs, they were a little lower in this quarter at 14.1%. Adjusted for the tender, that number would have been 15.7%, very, very comparable to our Q1 ROE. And we think that as we go along, we will continue to take decisions on the optimum capital return to shareholders given this macroeconomic environment. Speaker 400:28:22Okay, great. That makes sense. Thank you. And then actually just wanted to clarify on your expense guidance. Does that include The OpEx, the cost of services and the policy acquisition costs or is it just the first two of those line items? Speaker 300:28:36It's just the first two of those line items, the operating expense the other operating expenses and the cost of services, Which is the $380,000,000 to $400,000,000 guidance that we had previously given. Speaker 400:28:48Okay, great. Thanks very much. Speaker 200:28:51Thank you, Bose. Operator00:28:52Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harter with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Speaker 500:29:08Thanks. I believe in your prepared remarks, you talked about still being able to increase Pricing during the quarter, I guess, can you just talk about the pacing of price increases that you're Seeing relative to some market expectations for improved housing market and improved Economic outlook today versus 3 or 6 months ago? Speaker 600:29:35Hey, Doug, it's Derek. So in terms of the market in Q2, I'd Characterized as very similar to Q1. I think I characterized it there as being positive, disciplined and rational. So we continue to see a hardening market. So in our Principal segment, the Black Box segment, radar rates, we continued to see pricing increases in Q2. Speaker 600:29:55I would say the Pace of the increase kind of came down a bit, still increasing, but not at the same pace we probably saw in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but still kind of positive directionally. Speaker 500:30:09And then it appears that your QQ volume, you had a bigger sequential pickup than most of your peers. Is there any particular areas where you found you were kind of Winning more business or is it kind of broad based? Speaker 600:30:27Yes, kind of broad based. It was really the pick Up was in the radar rates segment. So that's where we really picked up. We were able to increase pricing across the board. And again, when we kind of see shifts in terms of volume, which we talked about at Investor Day, it's really going to be focused on whether we find relative value And where we find kind of the highest economic value. Speaker 600:30:48So if you saw any movement with respect to credit mix, it's probably a little bit on the higher FICO where we saw relative Operator00:31:02Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. Your line is now open. Speaker 700:31:18Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Wanted to first maybe just start with the reinsurance transaction. Just to clarify, the $21,000,000 recovery you talked about, that's just from lower Ceded premiums, is that right? Or is there something else going on there? Speaker 300:31:35Yes. So the $21,000,000 was the Seeded premiums that went up, so it's a contra revenue line. So think of it as our revenue went down by $21,000,000 because of the transaction. And the $58,000,000 that we expect to get a benefit for will be a savings in the future year. So that would be our ceded premiums going down in the future years by $58,000,000 Speaker 700:32:03Right. And of that $58,000,000 I think you said $21,000,000 would be within the Speaker 300:32:08That's right. So we expect a cash breakeven within the next 1 year. So I think in short, this is a really good NPV transaction As we look at it, we are looking at our performance excluding this Tender offer. And as you look at our numbers, I think our revenue would have been $25,000,000 higher if we had not executed on the tender. Our net premium yield would have been 3.2 basis points higher, our EPS would have been $0.10 higher and our ROE would have been 160 basis points higher, Excluding the impact of this tender and because of this tender, we expect that, we will actually have a Higher future dividend capacity. Speaker 300:32:53So think about the $58,000,000 that we have saved in future ceded premium, That should help us increase our dividend capacity in future years. Speaker 700:33:04Okay. Got it. And then just wanted to ask about the 20 18 deals, like I recognize it's hit the delinquency trigger currently, but given it also is not providing a pre miles benefit. Would that be a candidate in the future or because it's hit the delinquencies trigger, you basically are not likely to do that one? Speaker 300:33:25So we do have a call option in November for this year for the 2018 ones and we will look at our options and take a decision on that. Speaker 700:33:35Okay. And then maybe just asking about the paid claims, Just switching to the business. In terms of the paid claims, they're running at a pretty low level relative to history. There was only 91 claims paid this quarter and 80 last quarter, which obviously is quite low. My question is really when does this normalize back to, I guess, the pre pandemic, pre foreclosure levels or something More of a normal run rate level. Speaker 700:34:07Is there a cliff from a standing point standpoint, just given the foreclosure programs expiring, etcetera? Just trying to understand what that glide path looks like and when we get back to what I guess would be a normal alert environment. Speaker 300:34:23Yes, I think it's a really good question. I wish I had a future ball that I could look into and predict it, Mehdi, right? It's really hard to predict the I think what we can say is that we are taking a conservative view about how we think About the macroeconomic scenario, our performance to date has actually been consistently better than our expectations. But as you said, if you look at the average direct claim that we've paid this quarter, it was about 36,400. And as you know, our severity assumptions that we use when we reserve for a new default is higher. Speaker 300:35:02It's about $60,000 So we are continuing to see consistently better performance than our expectations. And we expect to continue to be conservative as we forecast our performance here. But Derek and Rick, if you have Yes, I'll jump in. Speaker 600:35:20So Bose, it's tough to say, I mean, one of the phenomenons we had in the portfolio is just the embedded equity. And so we've seen very high cure rates. So Particularly in our pending claim kind of bucket, so at very unusually high levels within terms of that cure rate. And so that's certainly been a positive. If you look at kind of that default portfolio, if you look take an index based Approach over 80% has 20% or more equity. Speaker 600:35:47So until you kind of have a turnover in the portfolio that does put downward pressure in a positive way in terms of potential paid claims. So you probably need to see a significant turnover in the portfolio. Speaker 200:36:00Yes. And we are really is kind of the law of small numbers right now, just kind of watching as this thing kind of evolves through the cycle. So I think As Sumit and Derek said, we're watching it carefully and I think being appropriately prudent about trying to factor in too much as we go forward. Speaker 700:36:18And my last question, just Derek, just to follow-up on the I understand it's an index based portfolio approach that the 20% Equity stats that you gave, like that 80% have over 20% equity. What would have been the rate Like typically in, I don't know, 2015, 2017 around that pre pandemic, I guess, What would be the typical equity rate in your pending quarter? Speaker 600:36:44Yes. I'm probably not going to I'm not going to guess on that lower, but I don't have a off the top of my head in terms of kind of the embedded equity. But if you think about that, just looking at the run up in home prices kind of after that period of It would be significantly less. And so this I can't think of any time in history where we would have had this much embedded equity in the Portfolio? Speaker 200:37:06Maybe more of a normal amortization kind of embedded equity over time with small HPA compared to kind of a 2021 Kind of ramp up in HPA. So I think the comparison is to Derek's point probably 2 different scenarios. Got it. Speaker 600:37:22Okay. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator00:37:32And currently, I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Rick Thornberry for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:37:42Thank you and thank you all. Appreciate you joining us today. Appreciate the questions and the good discussion. And most of all, appreciate your interest in Radian and the team here. We look forward to talking to each of you in the coming months as we have an and talk about how we're executing our business plans as we've laid out here. Speaker 200:38:05So have a great day and look forward to talking to you soon. Thank you. Operator00:38:09Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallCAE Q2 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) CAE Earnings HeadlinesCNB Financial initiated with an Overweight at StephensApril 14 at 5:58 PM | markets.businessinsider.comCNB Financial Corporation Reports First Quarter 2025 ResultsApril 14 at 4:05 PM | globenewswire.comGet Your Bank Account “Fed Invasion” Ready with THESE 4 Simple StepsStarting as soon as a few months from now, the United States government will make a sweeping change to bank accounts nationwide. It will give them unprecedented powers to control your bank account.April 17, 2025 | Weiss Ratings (Ad)CNB Financial (CCNE) Expected to Announce Earnings on MondayApril 14 at 1:50 AM | americanbankingnews.comISS endorses CNB Financial proposals ahead of shareholder meetingApril 10, 2025 | uk.investing.comCNB Financial Corporation Announces that ISS Recommends Shareholders Support the Proposal to Issue Common Stock in connection with the Merger with ESSA Bancorp, Inc., the Proposal to Approve the 2025 Omnibus Incentive Plan and the Say-on-Pay ProposalApril 8, 2025 | globenewswire.comSee More CNB Financial Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like CAE? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on CAE and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About CAECAE (NYSE:CAE), together with its subsidiaries, provides simulation training and critical operations support solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and Rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense and Security. The Civil Aviation segment offers training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, and ground personnel in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; a range of flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services, as well as aircraft flight operations solutions. The Defense and Security segment operates as a training and simulation provider that delivers platform-independent solutions to enable and enhance force readiness and security for defense forces, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), government agencies, and public safety organizations. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in 1993. CAE Inc. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.View CAE ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles 3 Reasons to Like the Look of Amazon Ahead of EarningsTesla Stock Eyes Breakout With Earnings on DeckJohnson & Johnson Earnings Were More Good Than Bad—Time to Buy? Why Analysts Boosted United Airlines Stock Ahead of EarningsLamb Weston Stock Rises, Earnings Provide Calm Amidst ChaosIntuitive Machines Gains After Earnings Beat, NASA Missions AheadCintas Delivers Earnings Beat, Signals More Growth Ahead Upcoming Earnings HDFC Bank (4/18/2025)Intuitive Surgical (4/22/2025)Tesla (4/22/2025)Chubb (4/22/2025)Canadian National Railway (4/22/2025)Capital One Financial (4/22/2025)Danaher (4/22/2025)Elevance Health (4/22/2025)General Electric (4/22/2025)Lockheed Martin (4/22/2025) Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access for Free Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools. Start Your 30-Day Trial MarketBeat All Access Features Best-in-Class Portfolio Monitoring Get personalized stock ideas. Compare portfolio to indices. Check stock news, ratings, SEC filings, and more. Stock Ideas and Recommendations See daily stock ideas from top analysts. Receive short-term trading ideas from MarketBeat. Identify trending stocks on social media. Advanced Stock Screeners and Research Tools Use our seven stock screeners to find suitable stocks. Stay informed with MarketBeat's real-time news. Export data to Excel for personal analysis. Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. Sign In Create Account Your Email Address: Email Address Required Your Password: Password Required Log In or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google Forgot your password? Your Email Address: Please enter your email address. Please enter a valid email address Choose a Password: Please enter your password. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Create My Account (Free) or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google By creating a free account, you agree to our terms of service. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
There are 8 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Radiance Group's 2nd Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Operator00:00:25Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to John Damian, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:40Thank you, and welcome to Radian's Q2 2023 conference call. Our press release, Which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website atwww.radine.com. This press release includes certain non GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call, including adjusted pre tax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share and adjusted net operating return on equity. In addition, specifically for our HomeGenius segment, other non GAAP measures in our press release that may be discussed today include adjusted gross profit and adjusted pre tax operating income or loss before allocated corporate operating expenses. A complete description of all of our non GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. Speaker 100:01:41These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website. Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer And Sumita Pandit, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q and A portion of the call is Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward looking statements. These statements are based on Current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. Speaker 100:02:13For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our 2022 Form 10 ks and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Rick. Speaker 200:02:34Good afternoon and thank you all for joining us today. I am pleased to report another solid quarter for Radian. GAAP revenues grew year over year to $290,000,000 We generated net income of $146,000,000 Our annualized return on equity was 14.1% in the 2nd quarter. Book value per share increased 12% year over year to $26.51 We paid a $35,000,000 dividend to Stockholders reflecting the highest yielding dividend in the industry and our overall liquidity and capital positions remained very strong, which I will cover in a few minutes. Despite continued headwinds in the mortgage and real estate markets and continuing macroeconomic uncertainty, Our overall performance in the Q2 reflects the resilience of our business model, the strength of our growing insured portfolio, The depth of our customer relationships and the commitment of our team. Speaker 200:03:36Our team remains focused across our three areas of Strategic value creation, growing the economic value and future earnings of our mortgage insurance portfolio, positioning our HomeGenius business on a path to Profitability and value creation and prudently managing our capital resources. In terms of growing the economic value and future Earnings of our mortgage insurance portfolio, we continue to leverage our proprietary analytics and radar rates platform focused on driving economic value, while calibrating our dynamic risk based pricing to capitalize on the opportunities that we see in the current market. As a result, we wrote $16,900,000,000 of high quality mortgage insurance business in the Q2 of 2023. And we expect to see continued opportunity to put our capital to work at attractive risk adjusted returns. Our primary mortgage insurance in force, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company, grew 5% year over year to $267,000,000,000 As a reminder, during our Investor Day in June, we provided examples of the potential future earnings embedded in our current in force portfolio, which is not included in our current book value. Speaker 200:04:53Our persistency rate remains strong. Given the current interest rate In the comparatively low mortgage rates across our portfolio, we expect our persistency rate to remain high, which is positive for future insurance in force We continue to see positive credit performance in our mortgage insurance portfolio during the quarter. Although we generally expect new notices of default to increase in the future as the portfolio naturally seasons, In the Q2, we saw the number of new defaults decreased as compared to the Q1 and Cures outpaced new defaults From a quality perspective, our mortgage insurance portfolio has been well underwritten and has a strong overall credit profile. And it is important to note that the quality of the mortgage industry's loan manufacturing and servicing processes remain strong, including extensive efforts to support borrowers experiencing hardship. It is also worth noting that the increase in interest rates has resulted in higher yields across our $6,000,000,000 investment portfolio, which Generates incremental income that flows directly to our bottom line. Speaker 200:06:06With regards to our HomeGenius business, Although we saw a small increase in revenues in the Q2 as compared to the Q1, as I noted during our Investor Day, the businesses that make up our HomeGenius segment Continue to be challenged by current market conditions, including higher interest rates and limited inventory, which has constrained mortgage and real estate activity. We are managing the HomeGenius segment through this challenging environment by focusing on disciplined cost management, including staff reductions to better align our expenses and resources to the current market and the opportunities we see ahead. As I mentioned during our Investor Day, we believe we have a differentiated and valuable solution in our Home GS business based on the depth of the market relationships, A national footprint across our businesses, our unique real estate data and analytics assets, our innovative digital platforms Leveraging advanced technologies, including AI and computer vision, and of course, an experienced and talented team. We maintain a realistic view of the current state and opportunity for HomeGenius and we will continue to adjust our cost structure and align our strategy and investments to place HomeGenius on a path to profitability. And in terms of managing our capital resources, Total holding company liquidity increased to $1,300,000,000 We continue to expect Radian Guaranty to Pay $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of ordinary dividends during 2023, of which $200,000,000 has already been paid. Speaker 200:07:42Rating Guaranty maintains a strong PMIERs position with excess available assets of 1 point 7 Or 41% over its minimum required assets. It is also important to note that in the second quarter, Tender offers were completed on 2 outstanding Eagle Re Insurance Link notes that were no longer providing the same level of PMIERs Capital Relief that they had previously. Samiththa will provide more detail on both the current period impact and the long term financial benefit of these transactions. And we continue to execute our aggregate, manage and distribute mortgage insurance business model, including The placement of a new quota share reinsurance agreement for new business written through June 30, 2024. We believe the strength of our capital position significantly enhances our financial flexibility now and going forward. Speaker 200:08:37As Sumit has shared during our Investor Day, We are in an enviable position of having significant optionality regarding uses of our capital. We take a deliberate and balanced approach to capital allocation, which we believe has uniquely positioned us to deliver value to stockholders. And it's important to note that our capital plan is never static As we strive to maintain flexibility to successfully respond to potential changes in the environment, particularly in this uncertain Economy. As we have noted previously, we carefully consider the balance between organic growth In order to deploy capital back into our business at the most attractive risk adjusted returns, the return of capital to stockholders, which is an area we have differentiated from our peers and inorganic growth investment opportunities. Over the years, we have consistently demonstrated a strategic focus on the optimization of our capital structure And many of you have highlighted our effectiveness in unlocking trapped capital wherever feasible. Speaker 200:09:44Let me share a few thoughts on the mortgage and housing markets. In terms of the mortgage market, for 2023, recent mortgage industry origination forecasts Call for bottoming out of the origination market with a decline of approximately 27% compared to last year, followed by a return to growth in 2024. It is important to note that the market decline has been largely driven by a decrease in refinance volume. And while the purchase market is down 15% from last year, it is expected to be slightly higher than the pre pandemic level A volume in 2019. As I've mentioned before, purchase volume represents the vast majority of our business, including homebuyers seeking a more affordable Down payment for their first home. Speaker 200:10:32Based on the total mortgage origination market of $1,700,000,000,000 We expect the private mortgage insurance market in 2023 to be approximately $325,000,000,000 which is at the high end of our prior guidance. Volume is projected to be driven primarily by purchase loans, which are Estimated to be $1,400,000,000,000 Excluding the pandemic years of 2020 through 2022, This would represent the largest purchase market in the past 16 years. We view these collective factors as a positive sign of a Strong and more stable purchase mortgage origination market. In terms of the housing market, while there continues to be a significant imbalance In housing supply and demand, we have seen housing prices stabilize and more recently begin to rebound. As we mentioned during our Investor Day, first time homebuyer demand is strong with large millennial and Gen Z generations either being in or And while the low inventory and strong market demand continue to create challenges for first time homebuyers, These dynamics help to mitigate downside risk in terms of home values, which is a positive for our insured portfolio. Speaker 200:11:51We believe the resulting pent up demand provides strong support for continuing purchase market growth in 2024 and beyond. As such, our overall outlook for the housing market remains generally positive over the near and long term. As you've heard me say before, our company is Built to withstand economic cycles. Significantly strengthened by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk based pricing and the distribution of risk into the capital and reinsurance markets. Sumita will now cover the details of our financial position. Speaker 200:12:27Many of you met her during our Investor Day and this is her first Quarterly earnings call at Radian since being appointed Chief Financial Officer in May. Since joining Radian earlier this year, She has made significant contribution across the organization and I'm very pleased to have her on the team. I also want to personally thank Rob Quigley, our EVP, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer and Dan Cobell, EVP of Finance for the important interim role they played during this transition. Their leadership, strategic insight An outstanding counsel have been and continue to be incredibly valuable to me and to the broader Radian team. Now, I will turn the call over to Sumitha. Speaker 300:13:10Thank you, Rick. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to provide additional details about our 2nd quarter results, which reflect another strong quarter of performance highlighted by the continued growth of our high quality mortgage insurance portfolio as well as by the strength and flexibility of our capital and liquidity positions. As reported last night, in the Q2 of 2023, We earned GAAP net income of $146,000,000 or $0.91 per diluted share compared to $0.98 per diluted Share in the Q1. Adjusted diluted net operating income per share for the quarter was also $0.91 compared to $0.98 per share in the Q1 as reflected in the reconciliations provided in Exhibit G of our press release. Speaker 300:13:59We produced a 14.1 percent annualized return on equity for the quarter and grew our book value per share 12% year over year to 26 point Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we generated $290,000,000 in total revenues during the Q2 compared to $311,000,000 in the first Our total revenues and net premiums earned in the 2nd quarter were reduced by a one time increase in ceded premiums earned of $21,000,000 This was due to tender offers by certain Eagle reissuers during the period To purchase the notes that supported the reinsurance agreements with Radian Guaranty, we are very pleased with the tender offer results, particularly since these transactions were no longer providing the level of PMIERs Capital benefit to Radian Guaranty that they provided in prior years. Based on current projections and expectations, we expect Radian Guaranty to save approximately 50 $8,000,000 of future ceded premiums over time as a result of these tenders, including a full recovery of the $21,000,000 of the Excluding the $21,000,000 impact of the tender offers, Our total revenue would have increased by 9% year over year and our net premium yield and net premiums earned would have been in line with the first Quarter of 2023. Speaker 300:15:35Exhibit D in our press release provides details on the various components of our net premiums earned And Slide 7 highlights the $0.10 reduction these tender offers had on our net income per share during the quarter. The 2 most significant and consistent drivers of our net premiums earned remain the size and average Premium yield of our large in force mortgage insurance portfolio. Our primary insurance in force grew 5% year over year to 260 $7,000,000,000 as of June 30. Contributing to the growth of our insurance in force was $16,900,000,000 of new insurance written for the 2nd quarter compared to $11,300,000,000 in the first quarter. We were able to achieve this growth quarter over quarter while continuing to increase pricing As discussed in our Investor Day last month, using the base economic scenario assumptions And inputs outlined in our presentation, our primary insurance in force is expected to be the most significant driver of our future results With embedded future earnings from the existing portfolio as of the Q1 estimated to be approximately $2,600,000,000 While the industry wide decrease in purchase and refinance originations has provided headwinds over the past year for our new insurance written, It has significantly benefited the persistency rate of our insurance in force, which remained high at 83% in the second quarter based on the trailing 12 months compared to 72% a year ago. Speaker 300:17:15We expect our persistency rates to remain strong given the The uprise in mortgage rates last year following an extended period of very low rates. 77% of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 5% or less as of the end of the second quarter and is therefore less likely to cancel in the near term due to refinancing. As shown on Slide 13 and consistent with our prior expectations, the in force portfolio premium yield Our mortgage insurance portfolio remains stable in the 2nd quarter at 38.2 basis points, comparable to the level reported at year end 2022. With strong persistency rates and the current industry pricing environment, we continue to expect the in force portfolio premium yield to remain relatively flat over the course of 2023, while the total net yield of our insured portfolio can fluctuate from period to period due to other factors such as changes in our risk distribution programs, profit commissions earned and single premium policy cancellations. The higher interest rate environment has also increased our investment income, which grew 37% year over year to $64,000,000 in this quarter. Speaker 300:18:27As shown on webcast Slide 9, our total investment portfolio of $6,000,000,000 consists of well diversified highly rated securities. We have significant diversification and conservatism built into the composition of our portfolio, which includes not only diversification between asset classes, but also across industry segments, obligate tenors and in securitized assets across geographies, collateral, vintage and issuers. The book yield on our investment portfolio increased during the Q2 from 3.8 percentage to 4% at quarter end and the higher rate environment should continue to be positive for the reinvestment of future cash flows. While the impact has moderated in 2023, Rising interest rates have created an unrealized loss on our investment portfolio reported in AOCI net of tax, which was $424,000,000 as of the end of the second quarter. Our book value fully reflects the fair value and unrealized losses of our investments As we do not classify any of our investment securities as held to maturity carried at amortized cost. Speaker 300:19:36We do not Expect to realize these losses given our ability to hold these securities to maturity as they trend to par due to our significant positive operating cash flows and Our HomeGenius segment revenues totaled $15,000,000 for the 2nd quarter compared to $13,000,000 for the As Rick mentioned, this segment continues to be negatively impacted by the higher rate environment and industry wide decline in mortgage and real estate transactions. Moving to our provision for losses, the positive trends that we have been experiencing continued into the most recent quarter. As noted on Slide 16, we had a net benefit of $22,000,000 in our mortgage provision for losses in the 2nd quarter compared to a net benefit of $17,000,000 in the Q1. The positive benefits in recent periods have been due primarily to default Strong home price appreciation experienced in recent years. For the Q2, the net benefit to our mortgage Provision was the result of $63,000,000 of benefit from reserve development on prior period defaults due to favorable cure trends. Speaker 300:20:55We are also seeing the benefit of higher claim withdrawals by services. The reserve releases were partially offset by $41,000,000 of loss provision for new defaults reported during the quarter. On Slide 17, we note that the number of new defaults reported to us by services declined in the Q2 2023 to 9,800 from 10,600 in the Q1. Consistent with recent quarters, we maintained our default to Aim rate frequency assumption for new defaults at 8%. Our ending primary default inventory As of June 30, we're slightly under 20,000 loans, representing a portfolio default rate of 1.98%. Speaker 300:21:42Turning to our other expenses. For the Q2, our other operating expenses totaled $90,000,000 An increase compared to $83,000,000 recognized in the Q1. Expenses in the second quarter were elevated due to the timing of Expenses for the quarter included $4,000,000 related to share based incentive grants and $2,000,000 of severance expenses related to our HomeGenius segment. Based on our expense savings actions to date and consistent with our previous guidance, we continue to anticipate our 2023 full year consolidated Cost of service and other operating expenses to be $380,000,000 to $400,000,000 This would represent a reduction in these total expenses in line with the higher end of our prior guidance of $60,000,000 to $80,000,000 or 13% to 17% compared to last year. Moving finally to our capital and available liquidity. Speaker 300:22:47Based on current performance expectations and consistent with our prior guidance, we Expect Radian Guaranty to pay between $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of ordinary dividends to Radian Group for the full year 2023. Year to date, Radian Guaranty has already paid $200,000,000 of ordinary dividends to Radian Group. Radian Guaranty's excess PMIERs available assets over minimum required assets remain stable at $1,700,000,000 That's a 41% BeMyers cushion. Our available holding company liquidity increased from $956,000,000 to slightly over $1,000,000,000 during the quarter. This increase was net of the payment of our quarterly dividend to Radian Group stockholders of $0.225 per share totaling $35,000,000 and the purchase of 229,000 shares at Total cost of $5,000,000 under our value based share repurchase program. Speaker 300:23:47As Rick mentioned earlier, consistent with Use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk. In July 2020 Radiant Guaranty entered into a quota share reinsurance arrangement with a panel of 3rd party reinsurance providers. Under the 2023 QSR agreement, we expect to cede risks related to 22.5% of policies Issued between July 1, 2023 June 30, 2024, subject to certain conditions. To recap, our results for this quarter once again highlight the consistent earnings and cash flows generated from our business model. We believe our financial position has never been stronger given our significant holding company liquidity, sizable PMIERs cushion at Radian Guaranty and the future embedded earnings in our high quality mortgage insurance in force portfolio. Speaker 300:24:44As illustrated using the assumptions and inputs outlined in our Today's presentation last month, even under a stress macroeconomic scenario that includes a severe decline in home prices Consistent with the great financial crisis, we expect to remain resilient and generate positive earnings each year, grow book value, maintain adequate PMIERs cushion and have significant ordinary dividend capacity at Radian Guaranty. I will now turn the call back over to Rick. Speaker 200:25:14Thank you, Samantha. Before we open the call to your questions, I want to highlight that we are Pleased with our results and remain focused on executing our strategic plans. We are driving operational excellence across our businesses and aligning our overall Our $267,000,000,000 Mortgage insurance portfolio is highly valuable and is expected to deliver significant earnings going forward. We continue to strategically manage capital by maintaining strong holding company liquidity and PMIERs cushion, While expecting to continue to pay ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group, opportunistically repurchasing shares and paying the highest yielding dividend in the industry to stockholders. And finally, I want to recognize our team Operator00:26:21Thank you. Please standby while we compile the Q and A roster. And our first question comes from the line of Bose George with KBW. Your line is now open. Speaker 400:26:53Everyone, good afternoon. I wanted to ask first just about share buybacks. You've obviously been somewhat quieter on that front the last couple of quarters. Just help us think about When we could see more activity there? Speaker 300:27:08Thanks, Bose. Hi, this is Sumitha here. It's nice to speak with all of you today. So I think Bose, we are taking a pretty deliberate and measured approach to how we think about our Capital return given the uncertain economy. As far as our share return in this year is concerned, in the first half of this year, We've returned about $90,000,000 to shareholders, including dividends and share repurchases. Speaker 300:27:35We do have a strong track record of As you know, we've returned about $1,750,000,000 of capital over the last 5 years. We've bought back approximately 1 third of our Outstanding shares in a similar time period. And we think that it is prudent for us to hold some excess capital Given the uncertain macroeconomic environment, I think if you look at our ROEs, they were a little lower in this quarter at 14.1%. Adjusted for the tender, that number would have been 15.7%, very, very comparable to our Q1 ROE. And we think that as we go along, we will continue to take decisions on the optimum capital return to shareholders given this macroeconomic environment. Speaker 400:28:22Okay, great. That makes sense. Thank you. And then actually just wanted to clarify on your expense guidance. Does that include The OpEx, the cost of services and the policy acquisition costs or is it just the first two of those line items? Speaker 300:28:36It's just the first two of those line items, the operating expense the other operating expenses and the cost of services, Which is the $380,000,000 to $400,000,000 guidance that we had previously given. Speaker 400:28:48Okay, great. Thanks very much. Speaker 200:28:51Thank you, Bose. Operator00:28:52Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harter with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Speaker 500:29:08Thanks. I believe in your prepared remarks, you talked about still being able to increase Pricing during the quarter, I guess, can you just talk about the pacing of price increases that you're Seeing relative to some market expectations for improved housing market and improved Economic outlook today versus 3 or 6 months ago? Speaker 600:29:35Hey, Doug, it's Derek. So in terms of the market in Q2, I'd Characterized as very similar to Q1. I think I characterized it there as being positive, disciplined and rational. So we continue to see a hardening market. So in our Principal segment, the Black Box segment, radar rates, we continued to see pricing increases in Q2. Speaker 600:29:55I would say the Pace of the increase kind of came down a bit, still increasing, but not at the same pace we probably saw in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but still kind of positive directionally. Speaker 500:30:09And then it appears that your QQ volume, you had a bigger sequential pickup than most of your peers. Is there any particular areas where you found you were kind of Winning more business or is it kind of broad based? Speaker 600:30:27Yes, kind of broad based. It was really the pick Up was in the radar rates segment. So that's where we really picked up. We were able to increase pricing across the board. And again, when we kind of see shifts in terms of volume, which we talked about at Investor Day, it's really going to be focused on whether we find relative value And where we find kind of the highest economic value. Speaker 600:30:48So if you saw any movement with respect to credit mix, it's probably a little bit on the higher FICO where we saw relative Operator00:31:02Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. Your line is now open. Speaker 700:31:18Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Wanted to first maybe just start with the reinsurance transaction. Just to clarify, the $21,000,000 recovery you talked about, that's just from lower Ceded premiums, is that right? Or is there something else going on there? Speaker 300:31:35Yes. So the $21,000,000 was the Seeded premiums that went up, so it's a contra revenue line. So think of it as our revenue went down by $21,000,000 because of the transaction. And the $58,000,000 that we expect to get a benefit for will be a savings in the future year. So that would be our ceded premiums going down in the future years by $58,000,000 Speaker 700:32:03Right. And of that $58,000,000 I think you said $21,000,000 would be within the Speaker 300:32:08That's right. So we expect a cash breakeven within the next 1 year. So I think in short, this is a really good NPV transaction As we look at it, we are looking at our performance excluding this Tender offer. And as you look at our numbers, I think our revenue would have been $25,000,000 higher if we had not executed on the tender. Our net premium yield would have been 3.2 basis points higher, our EPS would have been $0.10 higher and our ROE would have been 160 basis points higher, Excluding the impact of this tender and because of this tender, we expect that, we will actually have a Higher future dividend capacity. Speaker 300:32:53So think about the $58,000,000 that we have saved in future ceded premium, That should help us increase our dividend capacity in future years. Speaker 700:33:04Okay. Got it. And then just wanted to ask about the 20 18 deals, like I recognize it's hit the delinquency trigger currently, but given it also is not providing a pre miles benefit. Would that be a candidate in the future or because it's hit the delinquencies trigger, you basically are not likely to do that one? Speaker 300:33:25So we do have a call option in November for this year for the 2018 ones and we will look at our options and take a decision on that. Speaker 700:33:35Okay. And then maybe just asking about the paid claims, Just switching to the business. In terms of the paid claims, they're running at a pretty low level relative to history. There was only 91 claims paid this quarter and 80 last quarter, which obviously is quite low. My question is really when does this normalize back to, I guess, the pre pandemic, pre foreclosure levels or something More of a normal run rate level. Speaker 700:34:07Is there a cliff from a standing point standpoint, just given the foreclosure programs expiring, etcetera? Just trying to understand what that glide path looks like and when we get back to what I guess would be a normal alert environment. Speaker 300:34:23Yes, I think it's a really good question. I wish I had a future ball that I could look into and predict it, Mehdi, right? It's really hard to predict the I think what we can say is that we are taking a conservative view about how we think About the macroeconomic scenario, our performance to date has actually been consistently better than our expectations. But as you said, if you look at the average direct claim that we've paid this quarter, it was about 36,400. And as you know, our severity assumptions that we use when we reserve for a new default is higher. Speaker 300:35:02It's about $60,000 So we are continuing to see consistently better performance than our expectations. And we expect to continue to be conservative as we forecast our performance here. But Derek and Rick, if you have Yes, I'll jump in. Speaker 600:35:20So Bose, it's tough to say, I mean, one of the phenomenons we had in the portfolio is just the embedded equity. And so we've seen very high cure rates. So Particularly in our pending claim kind of bucket, so at very unusually high levels within terms of that cure rate. And so that's certainly been a positive. If you look at kind of that default portfolio, if you look take an index based Approach over 80% has 20% or more equity. Speaker 600:35:47So until you kind of have a turnover in the portfolio that does put downward pressure in a positive way in terms of potential paid claims. So you probably need to see a significant turnover in the portfolio. Speaker 200:36:00Yes. And we are really is kind of the law of small numbers right now, just kind of watching as this thing kind of evolves through the cycle. So I think As Sumit and Derek said, we're watching it carefully and I think being appropriately prudent about trying to factor in too much as we go forward. Speaker 700:36:18And my last question, just Derek, just to follow-up on the I understand it's an index based portfolio approach that the 20% Equity stats that you gave, like that 80% have over 20% equity. What would have been the rate Like typically in, I don't know, 2015, 2017 around that pre pandemic, I guess, What would be the typical equity rate in your pending quarter? Speaker 600:36:44Yes. I'm probably not going to I'm not going to guess on that lower, but I don't have a off the top of my head in terms of kind of the embedded equity. But if you think about that, just looking at the run up in home prices kind of after that period of It would be significantly less. And so this I can't think of any time in history where we would have had this much embedded equity in the Portfolio? Speaker 200:37:06Maybe more of a normal amortization kind of embedded equity over time with small HPA compared to kind of a 2021 Kind of ramp up in HPA. So I think the comparison is to Derek's point probably 2 different scenarios. Got it. Speaker 600:37:22Okay. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator00:37:32And currently, I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Rick Thornberry for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:37:42Thank you and thank you all. Appreciate you joining us today. Appreciate the questions and the good discussion. And most of all, appreciate your interest in Radian and the team here. We look forward to talking to each of you in the coming months as we have an and talk about how we're executing our business plans as we've laid out here. Speaker 200:38:05So have a great day and look forward to talking to you soon. Thank you. Operator00:38:09Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by