Scotts Miracle-Gro Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 2, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2023 Scotts Miracle Gro Company Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Amy DeLuca, Lead Investor Relations, Scotts Miracle Gro.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Scotts Miracle Gro's 3rd quarter earnings call. With me this morning are Chairman and CEO, Jim Hagedorn President and Chief Operating Officer, Mike Lukemire Matt Garth, our Chief Financial Officer and Chris Hagedorn, Group President of Hawthorne. In a moment, Jim and Matt will share some prepared remarks, and then the operator will open the call to your questions. As always, we expect to make forward looking statements, so please be aware that our actual results could differ materially from what we share today.

Speaker 1

Please refer to our Form 10 ks, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to familiarize yourself with the full range of risk factors that could impact our results. For further discussion after the call, you are invited to e mail or call me directly at 937-578-5621, and we'll work to set up some time as quickly as possible. Lastly, please note that today's call is being recorded. An archived version of the call will be published on our website at investor. Scotts .com.

Speaker 1

With that, let's get started. I'll turn the call over to Jim Hagedorn to begin. Jim?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Amy, and good morning, everyone. We have three things to discuss. 1, the state of the consumer and the performance of our lawn and garden business 2, the moves we're making to strengthen Scotts Miracle Gro. And 3, the opportunities we're pursuing for shareholder value creation. I'll get to the point.

Speaker 2

The first half was great. It met our expectations. The execution by our teams and support of our retailers on load in could not have gone better. It's a challenging time in retail and we're navigating it with our retail partners. As for the second half, so far, the season is not coming in the way we had expected because of lower consumer takeaway.

Speaker 2

We think this is attributable to the combined effects of post COVID sentiment, declining retailer traffic, Regional weather extremes, inflationary pressures and price elasticity. As a result, we will not meet our goal of plus 10% POS in our lawns unit. The full year impact will be an $80,000,000 EBITDA miss to our lawns target. The other businesses performed more or less to expectations. So what are we doing about this?

Speaker 2

We're attacking fall with double the investment in activation dollars And our retail partners are in 2. Remember, fall is roughly a third of the lawns business. We're taking out an additional $100 plus 1,000,000 in costs under Project SpringBoard Version 3. This work has already started and our total SpringBoard savings will now significantly surpass $300,000,000 and we've amended our credit agreement with our banking partners to get maximum financial flexibility moving forward. We continue to make the tough choices necessary to to deliver $1,000,000,000 in free cash flow by the end of fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

We're directing this cash flow to debt pay down. By fiscal year end, we will have reduced our debt by nearly $300,000,000 The current state of our capital structure is not optimal. We are carrying significant debt load without the earnings we expected for our investments in Hawthorne, the cannabis space and expansion of our operational capacity to capture pandemic level demand. Our mission is clear. We will pay down debt to achieve net leverage of less than 3.5 times as quickly as possible.

Speaker 2

I think it's valuable to provide context. Our consumer franchise has it all. The best brands, Sales force, in store execution, supply chain, innovation and high cash flow generating capabilities. And we have a major opportunity to get Hawthorne on track in the multibillion dollar U. S.

Speaker 2

Cannabis industry, along with a great partnership in Bonnie Plants. One thing we are missing is financial flexibility. This obviously will come with debt pay down. The amended agreement gives us the room we need to get through seasonal working capital changes and fully take advantage of margin improvement opportunities. We are maintaining our dividend at current levels and we do not foresee a need to issue equity.

Speaker 2

Now Let's dig into the details of what happened this year and what we're doing about it. Overall, consumer retail sales across lawn and garden are up through Q3, with consumers spending $117,000,000 more than a year ago. While these increases are largely due to pricing, It demonstrates that people are continuing to invest in their lawns and gardens. This is a reminder of the power of our consumer franchise. We outperformed retailers and competitors.

Speaker 2

According to major retailers, we gained share and awareness of the Scotts, Miracle Gro and Roundup Brands is over 80% across all homeowners, including millennials. No one can drive consumer connection and attachment with lawn and garden better than we can. Lawn and garden as a whole is fundamentally strong. Household penetration is 6% higher than pre pandemic 2019, a sign that the vast majority of Consumers who came into the category during COVID have remained engaged. Consumers who discovered edible gardening during COVID continue to garden.

Speaker 2

And we know over 10% of those who are gardening in 2023 are new entrants. These gains solidify our confidence that the category will continue to grow. This year, retail traffic at home centers was down 6%. Our marketing and sales team drove people into the stores. We helped Savage Spring for many retailers.

Speaker 2

Our POS volume outpaced foot traffic every month, often by double digit percentages. Through Q3, Gardens had POS gains in both dollars and units across key product lines. Today, We have a $200,000,000 organic gardening business. It's the fastest growing part of The Gardens portfolio and this occurred without the full support of all of our top retailers. We believe that our new organic listings will be far superior in fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

In lawns, we've had a mix of good and disappointing results. I want to stress that the lawns business is healthy, but it has been impacted by macroeconomic, weather and pricing factors. Let me address fertilizers and grass seeds separately. In fertilizers, our branded POS dollars were up 11%, and we've had share gains of more than 5% at major retailers, While total branded POS units are down 3%, the gap between the performance of our products and private label is striking. Private label is down 20% in POS units.

Speaker 2

Consumers did not trade down and they spent more on our brands. In grass seed, POS dollars are up 1%, but POS units are down 8%. We've experienced single digit erosion of share, largely due to the retail pricing at 1 major retailer. In fiscal 2022, we said weather was the main reason for the decline in lawns. With the benefit of hindsight, We can now say that post COVID consumer sentiment and inflationary pressures played a role too.

Speaker 2

People shifted discretionary spending to other places, specifically experiences. This started in 2022 as part of the post COVID hangover and extended into 2023. A recent McKinsey report cited that most consumer spending declined in April, right at the start of the lawn season For the first time since the pandemic, the only areas where it increased were entertainment outside the home and travel. These insights are supported by our consumer research. When asked why they did not engage in lawns, consumers said the economy and budget, Spending money elsewhere.

Speaker 2

They also said their lawns look good enough. This has a lot to do with weather, mostly in the early spring, which is becoming more unpredictable and subject to weather events and extremes that impact our early seasons. We think this is a result of climate change. This year, the weather patterns in the Midwest and Northeast significantly reduced normal dandelion and weed that drive consumers to our weed and feed fertilizer product. This lack of weed pressure had a similar impact on our Ortho Selective weed killer business, which is down a similar amount in the Midwest and Northeast.

Speaker 2

Gardens is more insulated from early weather because the consumer is not on our timeline. People plant when the weather is conductive to growing and our numbers support this. This year, we increased spending on lawns to engage the consumer early. In March, we launched the National Day Lawn Savings Campaign, which timed well with favorable weather in the South. It led to significant POS unit lift in Texas, up 79% and Florida up 86% at the launch.

Speaker 2

This initial engagement drove sustained POS activity. For example, Texas, our single largest lawn state is now up 10% and lawn unit POS year to date. Florida is flat. This was not the case in the Northeast and Midwest where consumers were still dealing with cold and wet weather during our early national activation. Daylon had virtually no impact on POS there.

Speaker 2

We know people respond when we market to them at the right time. So here's how we're adjusting. We're looking at weather differently. With spring less reliable, starting in fiscal 2024 and beyond, we will Diversify our marketing and promotions to work around weather extremes and elongate the lawn season. We will not give up on as it is our main activation point, but we will invest more in summer and fall for sustained growth.

Speaker 2

I've challenged the team to drive 10% more lawns business into the fall. As for Q4 this year, I said earlier that we will attack this fall, which is an ideal time to fertilize and seed. Retailers are joining us in fall campaigns to drive consumer takeaway and right size their inventories. I look forward to reporting the results of this effort during our fiscal 2024 Q1 earnings call. We've also determined that pricing, especially grass There have been unhealthy price gaps between our products, competitors and private label.

Speaker 2

Some consumers took the cheaper option. We are addressing this by decreasing prices on certain targeted SKUs. These special programs with retailers will result in incremental volume lifts and expanded shelf opportunities this fall and into fiscal 2024. Looking to the future, innovation is important in lawn and garden. Last month, we held our annual field day at our Murrysville research facilities where we showcased new products for our senior leaders and Board of Directors.

Speaker 2

The pipeline is impressive. In lawns, we're developing products to simplify lawn care and creating combo products to make it easier for consumers to DIY with awesome results. We're also mindful of weather extremes with drought tolerant solutions and turf alternatives. These products will launch in 2024. In gardens, organics, Natural products and live goods are more important to consumers.

Speaker 2

Next year, we'll expand our robust line of Miracle Gro organic solutions. Now let's turn to Hawthorne. There has been a stabilization in this business in Q3. It held the line and the daily sales run rate has improved slightly quarter over quarter. It's a small win, but a sign there are pockets of recovery in this industry.

Speaker 2

I've said I want to get Hawthorne to profitability by fiscal year end. We believe it's achievable, especially as we know that many seasonal Professional horticultural sales come late in the fiscal year. We also continue to actively explore non cash partnerships with other industry leaders. We will only make such deals if they bring scale and expanded capabilities that contribute to Hawthorne's and the industry's long term growth. Our discussions are ongoing with several interested parties.

Speaker 2

My objective is to move Hawthorne into a partnership or separate entity from Scotts Miracle Gro, one in which we maintain the controlling interest. I hope to report more progress on this front soon. Moving to our total company outlook for 2024, We have tailwinds coming our way that will contribute to margin improvement as we work our way through high priced inventory and realize the benefits of lower commodity prices and easing of consumer inflationary pressures. Urea exceeded $900 at its peak. It's now in the mid-300s.

Speaker 2

Other commodity costs like resins, Corrugate and pallets have come down and freight rates continue to moderate. They're down mid to high single digits this year and we expect further declines in 2024. All of this points to margin improvement opportunities and the ability for us to remain flexible in our targeted pricing reductions for consumers. We've been down this road before and we've emerged in a better place. That's how you see this playing out now.

Speaker 2

The trajectory of our fundamentals is strong. We're improving cost structure, paying down debt, Generating cash flow and investing appropriately in our brands, marketing, sales, R and D and supply chain. I very much appreciate the support of JPMorgan CoBank and all of our banking partners. They've displayed tremendous trust in us and we will not let them down. I also want to praise the work of our financial team.

Speaker 2

As we've restructured and optimized to align to today's realities, We've had to make difficult decisions, and that includes having to break ties with good and loyal people. We've sought to take care of them and we wish them the very best in the future. It's equally important that I acknowledge the grit of our leadership team and associates. They are talented, battle tested and world class. Their commitment to winning and delivering exceptional shareholder returns is unparalleled.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I'll turn the call over to Matt to discuss the financials.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. As Jim noted, We started the year with record level first half load in. In the Q3, it became apparent that second half consumer takeaway will run behind Expectations resulted in longer than anticipated margin recovery and therefore a different deleveraging path. The credit agreement amendment was pursued as a result. We believe this agreement appropriately reflects SMG's core strengths and strong free cash flow, while providing flexibility to maximize value going forward.

Speaker 3

Now on to the financial review. 3rd quarter total company sales of $1,120,000,000 were 6% lower versus last year, primarily related to a 39% volume decrease at Hawthorne. Net sales in Consumer were $916,000,000 an increase of $12,000,000 over Q3 last year. The 1% increase is attributable to both POS growth in the quarter and higher ending retailer inventories. Specifically, The most significant increase was from our growing media business with nearly $100,000,000 in higher shipments in the quarter than a year ago, driven by consumer demand for appealing and productive gardens throughout the growing season.

Speaker 3

As I shared on our last earnings call, We entered May with POS units at our largest retailers essentially flat and dollars up mid single digits With mix favoring growing media, POS trends entering August are consistent with these results as gardening season is in full swing. We expect a more favorable POS mix in the 4th quarter as we launch our fall season media and retailer supported promotions Focused on our branded fertilizers and grass seed. While total units are behind our original projection, they remain ahead of 2019 levels giving us confidence in our consumers' desire to engage in the category in the face of the dynamic environment Jim outlined earlier. From a retailer inventory perspective, units are up approximately 3% versus prior year entering August. Retailers are expected to continue to lower seasonal inventories, which will reduce our shipments.

Speaker 3

As a result, We now expect full year net sales in the U. S. Consumer business to end the year 2% to 4% lower than the prior year. At Hawthorne, Industry challenges continue, but we are seeing early signs of stability on the top line. There's still a 40% decline from prior year, 3rd quarter net sales improved slightly from 2nd quarter to $93,400,000 Customers are seeking value And we have supported improved demand signals with targeted pricing actions.

Speaker 3

Looking ahead, 4th quarter sales in the North America hydroponics business are We will see significant growth in the pro horticultural lighting division driven by seasonality and the continued shift by growers from HPS to LED. For the full year, While total Hawthorne net sales are expected to decline 30% to 35% from prior year, the outstanding work the team has done to right size Hawthorne's cost structure will help deliver run rate profitability by fiscal year end. Moving on to total company gross margin rate, there are several important drivers at play this quarter. The adjusted gross margin rate in the quarter fell 420 basis points below prior year to 21.3%, bringing the year to date rate lower by 200 basis points to 27.6%. For the full year, We now expect a year over year gross margin rate decline of 275 basis points to 300 basis points.

Speaker 3

The rate decline is driven by these five factors. First, the largest was an approximate 190 basis point decrease from the write down of pandemic driven Excess inventories in the U. S. Consumer business that was $20,000,000 higher than our expectations. On a full year basis, Those write downs will drive a 120 basis point decline in gross margin rate.

Speaker 3

I view this as one time in nature and will therefore add this back to the margin calculation when estimating underlying performance. While commodity costs have continued to moderate, The benefit of the lower costs will be more fully realized in the back half of fiscal twenty twenty four given higher channel inventories and lower production volumes. Material costs account for gross margin rate declines of 175 basis points for the quarter and 4.30 basis points year to date. On a full year basis, material costs are approximately 95% locked and are expected to drive a 3 50 basis point margin rate As previously detailed, we were running operations at lower levels to reduce inventories. Lower production volumes account for nearly 130 basis points of rate decline in the quarter and 300 basis points for the full year.

Speaker 3

These headwinds are partially offset by favorability from Project SpringBoard and net pricing. Net pricing equated to 130 basis points The quarter and approximately 560 basis points year to date. Recall that last year's pricing actions will anniversary this month. For the full year, net pricing inclusive of a higher than planned volume rebates and promotional programs is expected to drive 500 plus basis points of gross margin rate improvement versus the high single digits net pricing we originally anticipated. And finally, For the quarter, unfavorable product mix has somewhat been offset by favorable segment mix, given greater volume declines in the lower margin Hawthorne business.

Speaker 3

For the full year, mix will lower the rate by 60 to 70 basis points. Our pass back to gross margin rates above 30% is clear with a return to normalized volumes, continued moderation in commodity costs, Targeted net pricing actions, more favorable mix and the full benefit of right sized warehousing and inventories in both major businesses. Through our latest actions on Project SpringBoard, we'll achieve greater than $300,000,000 in savings. Even with the impressive improvements our associates delivered through SpringBoard, achieving our targeted margin levels will progress into fiscal 2025 consistent with the viewpoint we shared last quarter. Our progress on Project Sprigboard is also evident on the SG and A line.

Speaker 3

Total company SG and A for the quarter was $129,000,000 5% lower than Q3 last year and 34% lower than 2 years ago. It is important to note that these cuts were made without sacrificing our core strengths. For example, U. S. Consumer Media Advertising, essential to driving consumer engagement, will be up 25% this year versus last year.

Speaker 3

As a percentage of sales, we still anticipate sustaining SG and A in a range of to 16% of net sales going forward. Based on lower expected sales this year, we may end the year closer to the high end of the range. Taking all of these factors together, we now expect operating income in a range of 7% to 7.5% of net sales for the fiscal year And adjusted EBITDA about 25% lower than prior year. Non cash adjustments to EBIT are anticipated to be $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 higher than last year, largely related to increased share based payments. Below the operating line, We now anticipate a full year tax rate in the 28% to 29% range due to lower pre tax earnings.

Speaker 3

Interest expense will increase $60,000,000 over prior year on higher average borrowing costs. It should be noted That this quarter will end the year to date trend of higher average debt levels. Average debt by the end of the fiscal year will be around $200,000,000 lower than prior year. Equity income from the Bonnie business is expected to improve $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 versus last year. On the bottom line, Non GAAP adjusted earnings for the quarter, which exclude impairment, restructuring and other non recurring items were $66,000,000 or $1.17 per diluted share compared with $110,000,000 or $1.98 a year ago.

Speaker 3

Note that the EPS impact of the one time inventory write off that ran through U. S. Consumer profitability is roughly $0.25 per share. Let's turn to free cash flow. Free cash flow improved greater than $700,000,000 year to date over the 1st 3 quarters of 2022 as we continue to drive down inventory.

Speaker 3

We continue to anticipate strong free cash flow generation of approximately $1,000,000,000 Through fiscal 2024 $300,000,000 per year on average going forward. Now let me elaborate a bit further on our recent credit Amendment allows for increases to our debt leverage maximums, modifications to adjusted EBITDA to better reflect underlying performance And as a new fixed charge coverage covenant, given the lower Hawthorne sales levels, we have agreed to reduce the size of the revolving credit facility by $250,000,000 to $1,250,000,000 The amendment also raises our borrowing costs in our revolver And Term Loan A by 25 basis points with an additional 25 basis points when net leverage is above 6 times. We ended the quarter with leverage at 6.15 times adjusted EBITDA, including $41,000,000 of allowable increases to adjusted for non recurring E and O and warehouse closure costs. The maximum net leverage glide path going forward provides ample room and flexibility to navigate seasonal working capital, weather and POS swings. The 1st 2 quarters of 2024 are the most periods in the outlook based on normal seasonal ordering patterns and we have proper headroom to manage any outside swings.

Speaker 3

We remain committed to driving leverage below 3.5 times as soon as possible, so that we can return to a more balanced capital approach, Maintaining balance sheet flexibility and delivering increasing direct shareholder returns. Until then, our cash flows remain earmarked for debt pay down. Without a doubt, it has been a dynamic time for the company. I will stress that the results and guidance we've shared today reflect near term conditions. 2024 will be upon us quickly and we have laid out expected high points in the year ahead, broadened retailer partnerships, Gross margin improvement, continued benefits from Project SpringBoard, significant free cash flow generation and improving financial flexibility.

Speaker 3

As Jim stated, we are accountable for improving our results. I'm extremely motivated to create value at the levels commensurate with our market leading positions. I'm inspired by the joy our products bring to our consumers, the pride our associates have in shaping the future of some of the world's greatest brands And the commitment to excellence across every facet of the organization. Our priorities are clear and we are executing urgently against them. With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator, so we can answer your questions.

Speaker 3

Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now conduct the queue and answer session. Please wait while we compile the roster. And our first question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. Hey, Joe. A few questions on pricing.

Speaker 4

You mentioned price elasticity in the press release and also in the call this morning. Is this the first time But you're really seeing that come to the fore, if you will. And I guess, how do we think about pricing next year? Obviously, commodities coming down, But could we see pricing down next year?

Speaker 2

I think you're going to see pricing down on certain skis For sure. Joe, it's not an easy This is something we've been spending a ton of time. If you look at my whiteboard in here, we've been kind of all over what's happening. You look at the lawn fertilizer business, okay, where We gained like 5 share points and we think that's a pretty conservative number. Certain of the retailers, we gained a lot more than that.

Speaker 2

We Sort of dumb the numbers down a little bit just so it didn't like mess with our own heads. But no doubt we gain share on fertilizer side, but the category declined. So you see private label, we talked about being down, I think the number 20%. And call our units roughly flat. I think they're up a little bit on the branded side.

Speaker 2

So there's one where we didn't lose share, but the category decline. Now I'm not that nuts about that because when you go back and you look back during the financial crisis, We took the same kind of pricing. Units declined after things recovered, But we made a ton of money. And so I think the future story for lawns, we need to fight this and work Units up largely because we had such a large decrease last year that if you look back at Sort of units sold over a decade and we were looking at those kind of numbers. They are actually Pretty flat, maybe up a little bit during COVID, but they didn't get the giant COVID increase that like gardening got.

Speaker 2

But pretty flat and then there's big decline last year and we very much said, if you looked at Texas drought, California drought, really historically crappy weather in the Midwest Northeast, we basically said it's a weather event. We look at it now and Well, for sure there was weather and it's a this is I could talk for an hour on this one, I think, But I won't know. I think they don't want me to hear. But there's one where We think that the category is down in part because the pricing of products has gotten high even though we didn't lose share, we did the opposite, we gained share. Now if you look at grass seed, it's a little bit like The opposite, and driven by 1 retailer mostly.

Speaker 2

And that was where we We typically see kind of a 30% difference between our products and private label and a lot of the private label we do. So Between us and the merchants, we there's kind of a sweet spot there where Retailers need the private label where they make higher margins to be healthy. And so we're cool with that. And I think compared to a lot of other marketing companies, we participate in the private label and think that's a healthy thing for us to do. One of the retailers we have, which is a major retailer, that differential, they sold our grass seed And because they wanted the margin up above our recommended retail and the price gap then on the private label was 50%.

Speaker 2

And there we lost share there. So I think there's one where when you have a delta like and They're not going to repeat that. So that's part of what we're doing when we talk about sort of specialized programs to deal with certain SKUs. So we're not going to see that big a difference. I think they recognize the sort of I'm going to say the damage they did By having that big a differential, so that's not going to occur again.

Speaker 2

But there's one where we do think the grass seed Probably got more expensive than it should be. And the good news is the commodities are down on both The lawn fertilizer side and on the grass seed side that allow us to correct these prices. Mike, would you add anything on this?

Speaker 5

No, I think it's a balance of units and the right price for consumers and we work with retailers and we will get the mean, we've seen in one adjustment, we've made already a 40% lift in units. And so we want to drive units And we want to do it in a margin accretive way.

Speaker 3

I think that's a very important point that margin accretive way, absolutely, Mike, because And Jim just said it. You're seeing commodities come down. You're seeing us manage our cost structure, I think, expertly and bringing our average cost down. That's margin accretive. And so we're going to stay ahead of the selected price reductions that we're giving With cost outs and cost position to look to 2024 and it's still early days looking at 2024 for that to be margin accretive.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, Joe, this is again something that is fresh, but These price adjustments we're taking are not free. So we're not just offering across the board changes on grass seed or fert or anything else. What we're saying is, in exchange for cost outs, We're going into that because we kind of think that it's a good idea anyway. But in exchange, we get incremental listings and promotion that we did not have going into this year.

Speaker 2

So, we are working very closely and carefully and I think in a really positive way with retailers to offer opportunities for cost outs that focuses on certain SKUs that we believe have become expensive in exchange for other concessions from them on incremental business. And so that's and when this is as we were preparing for this call, this is just this morning, Mike was telling us about the benefit in the supply chain of

Speaker 5

that incremental load. Full utilization of your supply chain, Which brings it the cost and balance and so and the effectiveness of our field service teams and really a win win for retailers and us and we want the halo effect of our products. You're not just going in to buy a promotion, One promotion, you're getting multiple products and that's what we want to get back to fundamentally. There you go, Joe.

Speaker 4

Very helpful guys. Thank you.

Speaker 1

James, do you want to take Chris next?

Speaker 6

Yes.

Speaker 1

Chris Carey, please go ahead.

Operator

Hi. Can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes, we can.

Speaker 4

We're just having a party, Greg.

Speaker 2

Yes. Go ahead, Chris.

Speaker 4

Couple, yes, just A couple maybe, well, I don't know if it's quick ones, but here it goes. From So, it's a pretty big earnings reset, right? And I think the obvious debate today is just what the earnings power of this organization will be specifically into next year. And I think that maybe gets to 2 Maybe key debates, right? So first, and I know it's been touched on a little bit, but Like what's your visibility that the excess inventory that you still have will be clear Going into next year, said another way, is there any way you can frame the ability to enter next year clean from an inventory standpoint?

Speaker 4

That'd be question 1. Question 2 would just be, do you think there's a dynamic where Because you have such good load in, this year, you're really building through next year. I realize these are hard questions because we're so Far from that outcome, but given the reset today, all our eyes are already on next year. And so getting a little bit of Maybe visibility on inventory and phasing, I think might help people today. So just any thoughts you might have on that would be helpful.

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Look, I'll start and then hand to Matt. This is something Comparabilities are going to be hard, I think, because the last year has been one of Sort of making quarters and dealing with leverage targets. And that's created, I think, sales within quarterly periods that, where we've Sort of incented to make numbers and for those of us who've lived it, It was very much kind of week to week, day to day work, where we start a quarter looking at How we want to end and kind of what we had to do to sort of get there. Coming out of that and going to a more natural flow, I I think it's probably will result in discontinuities. I'm not saying the negative by the way.

Speaker 2

I'm just saying that it will create comparables That Archie, I think COVID did that by itself. And then I think our behavior through 2023 probably will make it even more challenging to read. I don't think that so if you look at our inventories and Retail inventories, I think by and large there's not a giant retail inventory issue. Decisions we made, Chris, that when you look at how we are sort of talking about End of the year because remember we're not there. We're still sort of working our fall season right now.

Speaker 2

I think for us to have come in below 4.5 times leverage next Spring, so I think it was like the end of Q2 was kind of when that our leverage went back under the old agreements went down back to 4.5 times. It would have required a pretty exceptional year for us to get there. And I think we talked about it for sure. We talked about it internally and with the Early in with the Board that but it was a very much a different dynamic going back to the bank saying we made a ton of progress, But 4.5% is going to be challenging. We made this quarter, and I'm not going to argue whether we could have or couldn't have made Q4.

Speaker 2

That's not kind of where we were. Once we basically said, look, we're going to be going back to the banks for Q1 or Q2 Anyway, and again, that's something we had talked about previously for sure with management and the Board. Then we just said with the shortness in lawns, We're doing that. And I waited then for a recommendation from Matt and Mike, how they wanted to Pursue the year, if we said the pressure is off on trying to sort of make a certain number for a leverage calc, How do we want to naturally allow the year to end? So what I wouldn't do is try to read too much into that because we were the recommendation I got from the 2 of them was Let's just let the quarter naturally end Q4 and we'll build an operating plan to that.

Speaker 2

So I'm not this doesn't make anybody's job easier, but when you talk about the earnings power of the company, we could have struggled through Q4 made a better number. There's no doubt that we could have done that and retailers would have worked with us. We made a decision to sort of allow Since we're going to the banks anyway, let's just allow this thing to naturally sort of unwind. And I think it's a healthy thing actually,

Speaker 5

But yes, Matt, go.

Speaker 3

All right, Chris. Let's frame this up this way. Let's start in the 3rd quarter. So you got $1.17 The inventory question you saw us take a $20,000,000 write down on some inventory here in the 3rd quarter It's worth $0.25 a share. So to me, I take the $1.17 I add the $0.25 I'm at 1.42 That's the underlying earnings in Q3.

Speaker 3

As you step forward into Q4, everything that Jim just said It's tactically and strategically how we're moving forward. That allows us to unwind inventory. The fall programs that we're putting into place, Mike and his team are executing to drive down inventories to clear out high cost inventories as we go into 2024. Now what I've said about 2024 is that it's going to be kind of another transition year of getting margin back. I'll talk about that in one minute.

Speaker 3

But let me finish on Q4. If you look at the full year in 2023, Chris, frankly, you just said it and I think we're in the same place. We're already looking at 24. The numbers coming out of Q4, We know that that's a weak quarter for us just seasonally. You're probably looking with our guidance around $1 to 1.25 Again, I'm adding that $0.25 back in to the underlying earnings of the company.

Speaker 3

So that's the full year. As you look at 2024, Everything that we're doing is around motivating gross margin accretion and that's probably going to come in, in excess of 100 basis points. SG and A will stay tight. Everything that we're doing around driving costs out of the company are going to be supportive, But that inventory overhang is probably going to come through still in the first half. And so you're really now looking at a 25, 2025 where you have 100 of basis points in margin as you release those high cost inventories fully into the system.

Speaker 3

And as Mike said, you're getting efficiencies through the whole system. What does that mean for 2024? There's a pathway back here in 2024 where we see $3.50 to $4 a share in earnings, where we see EBITDA in excess of $600,000,000 And where we see completing the free cash flow of about $1,000,000,000 over 2 years, that's going to be directed to debt pay down. That will end up with the 25 improved margins, continued growth given the share and Shelf positions that we've gained over the prior 2 years and $300,000,000 plus in free cash flow that again will go to strengthen the balance sheet. Can't really give you an EPS view on 25 yet.

Speaker 3

And also the caveat for everyone, these are early days, But we know the conversation is very much about 2024 at this point and that's why I'm giving you a little bit of a preview.

Speaker 4

So that was a really comprehensive answer. I won't ask another question, but just to clarify a couple of things that I just heard. You're going to be still working down inventory into the front half that might limit some gross margin expansion, which really accelerates into fiscal 2025. On fiscal 2024, did you say the gross margins would be up 100 basis points? Or you're just saying It would be a bit more under pressure and then confirming you just kind of said $350,000,000 to $4,000,000 I don't know if you're talking about a multi year or if that was in reference to what you think the earnings power could be actually be in fiscal 2024.

Speaker 4

So thanks for any clarifying on that, then I'll get back in.

Speaker 3

Chris, I was very deliberate in what I said. I practiced it for 3 days. The 100 basis points is what you're looking at going 24 versus 23, okay? There's a lot of activity that's left to go after For us to really point to what that's going to be, but Mike and the team through the power of Project SpringBoard plus all the optimizations that they are doing, That feels good. Plus what Jim spoke about growing those shelf positions, increasing our volume that will all contribute.

Speaker 3

That will yield with the other potential items that we have in place a 2024 view that says you kind of have $3.50 to $4 a share in place, a lot to execute on, it's early days, but that's what we need to be targeting and that's what we're going after. That then would lead to a 2025 of another opportunity for increased margin expansion as the full Deflationary impacts in our cost structure move through, our inventories are aligned with the much lower raw material costs we have now And that will help us move forward. And by the way, all of that is kind of what I was speaking to directly in that margin bridge

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS.

Speaker 7

Thanks, everyone. Good morning. I hope you're doing well. I guess I just wanted to ask about you provided a lot of color on the 24, but I guess I wanted to get some color on the Hawthorne commentary that you a position of strength versus where we stand today. So Jim, can you maybe just talk about that decision and why now is the appropriate time?

Speaker 2

Okay. Sure. I think we all feel this way, by the way. We've made a ton of progress in stripping costs out of Hawthorne. And on pretty conservative numbers that business Gets back to profitability, call it, this year, I don't know.

Speaker 2

I think that's what we said in the script. My issue with that business is that When it had a great valuation within our equity, when it was earning like Nearly $150,000,000 of EBIT. It was good. I think without a kind of significant recovery in that space and everything we're talking about here, I'm just kind of going back to the previous questions a little bit. We're just working our initial operating plan for next year right now.

Speaker 2

And so I think for everybody who's got questions, The bank plan and the sort of initial operating plans are pretty darn conservative, okay, on purpose because of where we are. And we're not sort of going to try to continue to lead with our chin here. But let's say Hawthorne makes Reasonable progress, they will. We're already seeing, I'm going to spell modest recovery in that business. I just don't think that it's with the assumptions we put in there, which I think are reasonable, It's so impressive that it can stay the way it is.

Speaker 2

I think it just looks like a kind of marginal part of the Scotts portfolio. And when you look at it and you say, it's created a lot of beta in our earnings. We haven't really talked about I'm sort of E and E and escape innovating around this question. It means I'm not trying to go away from it. But if you look where we are, we got Hawthorne making negative earnings and we had deployed like $1,000,000,000 into And that's the issue that we're fundamentally dealing with.

Speaker 2

You can call it about half and half. A lot of what we're doing in the operating side of the business is slash and burning on inventory, on the capital stuff that we invested in, on capacity on both Hawthorne and Scotts and wiping that out. But we're still operating with More than $1,000,000,000 significantly more than $1,000,000,000 invested in it earning jack shit, okay? And based on sort of the operating forecast that I've seen so far, it marginally makes money. It's a good business.

Speaker 2

Now let's I want to get to this part that is we've talked about hooking up with other people And this is not new for me to create the sort of Ellis Island approach, which is there are some really good companies out there that were worth multi 1,000,000,000 of dollars that are now worth 0. And a lot of that is investor sentiment, it's The challenges the businesses had, it's the inability to bank. I mean, there's just so many things you can throw out there that are sort of negatives on that space right now. We're not going to shut it down. We've invested the money.

Speaker 2

And so as we've talked to people, You all need to know that this is a very unique property, probably the best Piece of that business and when we talk to other partners, all of whom are worth 0, Including us on this part of the business, Hawthorne has so much We really we collected well in that space. The problem is nobody is making money on the cultivation spot, nobody is spending money on capital and that's fundamentally the issue. And there's a lot of reasons for that. I've Seeing good reports even today on why that. And I think I don't know Amy who wrote that report that I saw this morning, but it's right.

Speaker 2

So we spent the money. We could just walk away from it. I think that's wasteful. We did this for one reason, growth. We looked at lawn and garden.

Speaker 2

Now we had like a 30% increase during COVID in lawn and garden. But before that, we were seeing a couple of percent growth. And we looked at live goods and we looked at cultivation supply in the cannabis side and said these are growing at a multiples of ours. So we invested that and I think We continue within our numbers to have, I don't know what the number is, but call it $15,000,000 of R and D spend in innovation spend behind the Hawthorne business today. And we could walk away from that.

Speaker 2

But This is really the difference between the future and not. We could cut that money and not spend that. But when we talk to partners, people in the industry recognize the power of what Hawthorne has and Everyone is in the same boat. So the question is, could you take people like more than one company, more than Hawthorne and put people together and create a business that has enough scale and enough earnings that it's capable of being kind of a standalone business and whether that's within Scotts or outside of Scotts. But I would make the argument That business needs to be north of $100,000,000 of EBITDA or EBITDA, I think was the terms we use in the operating side.

Speaker 2

And I just don't see Hawthorne in the near term getting to that. And I see a lot of other people out there with Really good exceptional businesses also floundering where getting together offers scale and it offers Strategic impact that I think we're not going to get alone. And I think for the Scotts shareholders, I think the beta we've introduced into our earnings as a result of this investment is probably not healthy. We know one thing about Scotts. Scotts is a high cash flow business.

Speaker 2

And We've got to find ways to sort of strengthen the Hawthorne platform and offer I think other people who are in exactly the same boat and you all know who they are, okay, and Create something that strategically is important. And I just I don't think that we can get there by ourselves and the There are opportunities and when we talk to those people, unlike maybe a little bit the conversation we would have with you guys on the phone today Where you say, nobody else is saying that. Everybody else is saying, no, no, you guys really put something great together. Chris, you got something to say? Yes.

Speaker 2

No, I just Peter, it's your baby.

Speaker 6

Yes. No, it is. And it's look, it's tough Going through what we've been through and look understanding what the investments on this side of the industry have done To the core business sacrifices that the North American business had to make to sort of to support Hawthorne through what it's been through. I just wanted to just Quickly touch on when you said making this decision from a in the past you talked about it from a position of strength and now it's different. And look, clearly I recognize the Maybe the irony in what I'm saying.

Speaker 6

Look strength is a relative thing. And clearly Hawthorne is not the business it was. The industry is not the industry it was at the time being. But Hawthorne still within the industry operates from a Position of relative strength. And I think that that's giving us in partnership conversations A really good position to negotiate and work from.

Speaker 6

As Jim said, there's a lot of really good businesses out there that have fundamentally strong assets. If we can put those things together with Hawthorne and when Jim talks about partners that see this, he's not just talking on the cultivation side where we operate, but When customers of ours, I mean the people who are actually using our products come to see what we do here at Hawthorne, come to Marysville here and See R and D and Innovation, all the work that goes into that side of the business. People are really impressed and they're extremely optimistic about not just the long term outlook Both the industry despite where we are, but the presence and the contributions that Hawthorne can provide to it. So look, I know things are tough right now. We are going to make a move.

Speaker 6

The work that the team has done to get the business back to a place where profitability is really within our reach Has been tremendous. It has not been easy for anybody. But again, I think we're we are in a position of relative strength compared to a lot of the other folks in the industry. And We want to go this not alone, but together and there's a lot of

Speaker 2

And I want to talk just a little bit, Chris, about the cost of that strength. Some of the people we've talked to theoretically know how they can cut expenses. We have absolutely blood all over us here as a result of what we're doing. Dude, there was a whole another round of layoffs this week here, okay, as we have sort of Proactively dealing with our self help, okay. When we talk to some of these partners, some of the partners are living in the same world on Chris' side and they have made some of the changes.

Speaker 2

With us, we show up with absolute certainty in our numbers because they are created through blood and that blood has been let, Okay. So getting Hawthorne back to profitability is something that was shotguns and knives, and we've done it already unlike some of our partners who say, well, I could do this and that, We've already done it. So part of the strength in these discussions is from the certainty of we've already done it. I don't know, Peter, if that helps at all.

Speaker 7

No, it does a lot. I appreciate all that color. I mean and then Matt, I appreciate all the color you provided to Chris' question on 2024. Maybe just a couple points of clarification, because it just to get the $3.50 to $4 it seems like a substantial increase in earnings given what we're kind of What's implied for this year? So maybe first just on the 100 basis points of gross margin expansion, is that incremental on top of what you would get back from cycling the write downs because I think you mentioned that's 120 basis points, or is that a total number?

Speaker 7

So whenever taking 2.70 to 3 100, you just add 100 to it and that would get you there. And then I guess what I'm trying to understand within that is just Maybe what's assumed for leverage and kind of interest expense? Like I think it would be helpful to kind of just maybe bridge us $3.50 to $4 with 100 basis points of gross margin expansion. I just think that would be helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, no worries. And I do think, 1, you have to take into account there's top line growth next year, right? And so Kind of out of the gates, everything that Jim and Mike have spoken about is growing mid single digits in U. S. Consumer next year, which With the margin also going up kind of that 100 basis points.

Speaker 3

And by the way, that's kind of year end full year 2023 to a full year 2024 as I'm looking at it. And that's coming through, like I said, additional volume, additional cost outs, Additional expansion of capability that we are bringing onto the shelf with innovation, all of that is going into play. So that leads you with a pathway to gross margin, EBITDA again growing commensurate. And then as you move to sort of lower in the P and L, yes, you're right. We are going to do what we've done this year.

Speaker 3

You'll see a consistent Debt pay down of about $300,000,000 next year that obviously will work towards the net leverage calculation on an average Of about $200,000,000 commensurate with that will be an interest expense reduction. You can do the math there. You're kind of averaging 5.25 percent right now. Next year, you're probably going to be in that range, 5.25 percent to 5.50 So I'll leave you to do some math, but on albeit on a lower debt level and then tax rate will Probably improve a little bit next year. This year, we're seeing a higher effective tax rate as earnings are a bit lower, As earnings grow higher, some of those fixed tax items get more coverage and so your effective tax rate We'll move lower.

Speaker 3

So kind of moving back into that 25% to 26% range is what I'm thinking. And therefore, you put all that together, That's what helps drive the EPS growth year over year.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

All right. Our next question comes from Eric Bouchard from Cleveland Research.

Speaker 4

Good morning. A couple of things. Jim, I'm curious what's pricing, The experience this year and your thinking for next year, I'm just curious Where that goes and what your strategy is within that? You've talked a little bit about it. I just would love to understand A bit more, are you at the point where you feel like the consumers have pushed back on price where in order to have volume growth, in order to have mid single digit revenue growth next year, The pathway there is a notable change in your pricing strategy.

Speaker 4

Just help us understand that a little bit.

Speaker 2

Listen, I'd start with what's notable is we're not taking pricing Next year. So let's start with that one. Eric, I'm not sure we've seen consumer Pushback. I said with grass seed, I think we all think we have, I'm not sure that We understand that well. Look at the lawns business, you gained 5 share points.

Speaker 2

And again, I said that was conservative. The category got smaller. I think that's maybe the pushback. If you look at that research data we had that people said they were just Kind of watching their pocketbook. I don't think it's just us.

Speaker 2

I think it's all kinds of products. So I think that grass seed was a pretty unique The situation where we had a retailer actually price like our sun and shade Above recommended retail and offer a private label product 50% below us. Yes, that one the consumer did both. That is a very unique situation that's not going to happen again. So I think we started on pricing and Mike you can jump in at Some point here is we're not taking pricing.

Speaker 2

I don't think the retailers will be real tolerant of it. And I think we do feel like Some of our products have gotten pretty darn expensive. And those really were Longfert's the combo products, they tend to be expensive anyway and Grass Seed. Then we had conversations with retailers Last couple of months that are and I think you can start with Depo, who is publicly, I think when Ted's talk looking for cost outs within their system, and they're talking to vendors about participating. And they talked to us about that.

Speaker 2

And I think within that, The underlying part of the conversation is we actually were sensitive to pricing on lawn farts and grass seed where how we could participate with them, which I ultimately I guess a cost out as a price reduction. So we sort of targeted these reductions in exchange for concessions on listening and promotional It's incremental to anything we had now. So Eric, seriously, I'll view this as a conversation. It's a little different than what you're saying. So you guys finally saw there was pushback from the consumer, not really.

Speaker 2

We basically We said we're not pricing because we thought our stuff's gotten expensive. And the thing is, agricultural products, Food, we see it early because you're dealing with a lot of the same stuff. You're dealing with Agricultural commodities, urea, various other nutrients, chemistry that goes into the products, Pallets, plastic, transportation, all this stuff really pricing up and we've seen a lot of giving a price back on that. And so I think for us to Assume we could get pricing, I don't think we would have thought it was good for the business and maybe that gets to what you wanted to say. But the ability to participate in cost outs with retailers in exchange for Volume increases that were incremental to what we and I mean truly incremental to what we have today, I think which this is a whole question I had this morning as I was talking to Mike about this as we were sort of anticipating questions.

Speaker 2

These are margin positive for us. They're not only dollar margin positive, they're margin percent positive as remember, We overbuilt our supply chain as we were in COVID, not unlike other people. And so as we've seen Slack in that system where the demand really hasn't been there and again we saw this year. To have incremental business that further loads our Supply chain is actually super beneficial for us on a margin percent. So it even pays for itself in a percent basis.

Speaker 2

So I don't know, Eric, what do you think of the answer and like we can talk about it. But I'm not no, I'm not

Speaker 4

I'm just trying to figure out how you connect the dots where your customer Home Depot wants to cost out. Your consumer has said, like my lawn is good enough at that price. The units are negative. Your comment is it's great to load volume. It sure seems like all that seems like what path is to lower the price to solve all those things?

Speaker 2

Well, And I guess effectively we're doing that. I think you're misreading what I said in my prepared comments, Okay. Which is my lawns good enough for the price. For those of us who live in the Midwest and the Northeast, you saw I've kind of real wet early spring and lawns looked really great. They were not parched out.

Speaker 2

And I think that it was I'd like to save the money and my lawn looks good enough. A lot of that from our point of view good enough was weather related And that my loan looks pretty green without doing anything. And that was true this spring. So don't misread the data. Mike, anything you

Speaker 5

No, I mean, you look at Texas, I mean, we over indexed. The weather was right. We did the Promotions and the advertising, we were super I mean, what was the percentage early on? It was like 90% lift and we were really Optimistic about it.

Speaker 2

Eric, I think in dollars in Texas, we're up like 25 plus percent year to date in our largest single lawn market is Texas And it's up in dollars like 25%. I don't know what we said like it's more than 10% in units year to date. And so listen, it's one of those things where I actually don't know what at all. I wish I could say I know exactly what it means. We spent Matt and I spent a ton of time this week on saying we need to actually have an answer here.

Speaker 2

And Eric, one of the things this is really for everybody. We become Our spring season has become very much a wheat and feed season. And when you look at that early Day loan savings program we did, which coincided really well with Southern weather. And I just I know this data real well now. It worked really well where the weather was good.

Speaker 2

And we've talked about before, where the weather is not good and you promote it doesn't do much. We didn't see like the needle even move for day 1 savings with national promotion. It got a lot of load in, which was good. Even in the North retailers were prepped. But then since you saw nothing really happened in Daylon in the northern markets, It really became like a Black Friday, a single Black Friday event where your peak the peakiness of the lawn season in like the Northeast was 1 week, okay, which is when the stuff was on promotion.

Speaker 2

And that's partially our fault. We together with the retailers have got very focused on weed and feed. And then you say, so what is it that the people really want? Do they want green or do they want wheat dead? So lawns took this position, The brand people at lawn saying, dude, the wheat season was just kind of screwed up in the Northeast.

Speaker 2

And we said, yes, so you say, okay. I assume we sound a little bit like you, so you say. And Then we went back and pulled the ortho data and it basically was exactly the same ortho selective weed almost exactly the same. So I think part of what's happened in lawns is we've become very much in the spring season, not a halt Plus weed, plus dandelion, it's become kind of turf builder plus 2, one big mondo promotion. And if the weather interferes with that, it's just it's pretty disruptive.

Speaker 2

And so I think that's a little bit how we look at these The differences in the country because you have the biggest state in the union from a long point of view like Plus $25 in dollars, plus $10 in units and Pretty bad numbers in the Northeast. And so how do you get to this whole issue of pricing where you got one state, the number it's but it goes bananas And then we get into this whole weed thing and then we look at ortho and it's the same numbers. So Eric, I don't know what it all means except to say that We're not chancing this because I think the retailers believe and I know you have a great relationship with them. I think the retailers believe pricing was a factor. And so we're dealing with that.

Speaker 2

But we're dealing in a way of, I'm going to say strength, meaning we will work with you on this in exchange for XYZ, which is all incremental. And I think what will happen is next look, First of all, nobody has anything to go on with spec and central other than their first half numbers and they sucked, okay? Not our first half, okay. That's part of what we're talking about here, okay, is the work we did And the friendships we had with our retailers really helped our load and that helped our share, okay. The I'm not going to say concessions.

Speaker 2

The actions we're taking to deal with seed and lawn prices are going to have effect on our shelf presence and our promotional sort of percentages. And I think you'll see that next year. Those programs are being put to bed now. But I think we're very confident in what's coming out of them.

Speaker 4

Okay. Second thing, Probably maybe a little bit easier. Just from an inventory perspective, you commented about you've managed this year a little bit quarter to quarter for the covenant, which makes sense. And now you've created breathing room around that. Doing that obviously involved some pushing inventory to retail.

Speaker 4

You've talked about this bigger bet on fall lawns. The question is, like is the risk that you end this year with More inventory of retail than there should be and that's a limiting factor for next year or am I connecting the dots incorrectly?

Speaker 7

Yes. I don't listen, I

Speaker 2

don't think it's a limiting factor. I do think that To people where we fell short on our lawn numbers, there probably is higher lawn inventories. I personally have had conversations With retailers, not that there's a problem, but they bring it up. And So fall is pretty important, I think, to everybody. I don't know the exact percentages, Eric, but our Spend for marketing in the fall is nearly 2 50% higher than it was last year.

Speaker 2

And we're not just talking. So the big fall promotional items that Happened to Grassy, Longfert and Tomcat, our rodenticide line. They're all going to get pushed hard. Now I wish I could tell you next quarter we can tell you what the answer is, but a lot of these occur in that transition between The fiscal year. So a lot of this happens in November.

Speaker 2

So our first quarter numbers should say how successful we've been in both POS, our sales and also in Tomcat. Mike, anything?

Speaker 5

No, I think you're going to see retail inventories down versus Previous year Eric question is how far down based on that fall program. So, and so Yes.

Speaker 2

So I think that's an important thing to remember. We ended last year not saying we had inventory problems. We said inventory was I think either lower or about where it should be. This year inventory is going to be lower, okay? Yes, it's

Speaker 7

going to

Speaker 5

be lower, just how much and what's the promotion and what falls in the 4th quarter versus the Q1 on shipments.

Speaker 3

Those were retailer inventories, absolutely. From our inventory position, Eric, We did say part of that $1,000,000,000 in free cash flow over 2 years, dollars 400,000,000 of it was related to Excess inventory and the plan is and was to take about half of that this year, half of that next year. As Mike detailed earlier, trying to gain some momentum here in the fall Will help bring in some of that inventory reduction into 2023. So as Jim just pointed to A lot to report on kind of Q1 of 'twenty four on how this is all going to play out.

Speaker 4

And then if I could just ask one last one. Obviously, everything was on the table. You added to the restructuring. You're talking about, I think, a notable change with Hawthorne. You made a change with the debt covenant.

Speaker 4

And the Board decided to keep the dividend even though you're not going to earn the dividend this year or probably through the first half of next year. Why that position or strategy around the dividend?

Speaker 2

Listen, I think we I'll speak from it from with 2 hats, okay? Let's start with the family hat and that's not because it's more important, it's just the easier one to say. While the dividend does matter to the family, my older sister Susan, who's the Chairman of the limited partnership, We have Sue and I have been real tight on this and our view is whatever best for the company is the right answer. Okay. So let's just put that one, which is was not some weirdo move by the family to keep the dividend.

Speaker 2

As we looked at this from other companies who have either suspended or cut the dividends, the Destructive effect on the value of the equity is so striking that it was something that In the discussions that Matt and I have had and we have all had with our banking partners, it just Didn't seem like it was worth it. It was really seemed like it was a kind of 3rd rail issue. And it didn't really move it doesn't really move the Leverage numbers enough to sort of take the risk on the signal it would send to our equity partners, Okay. So I don't know Matt.

Speaker 3

No, no, no, 100%. In the 1st year that you cut the dividend, it's kind of worth 0.1%, maybe 0.15%. 2nd year, yes, it aggregates to like a 0.3 on the impacts in that leverage, Eric. So It's not going to move the needle in 2 years versus what we're going to do in the denominator of the net leverage calculation And also on the cash flow side of what we're going to be able to achieve and direct that to debt pay down. The other thing is and Jim sort of glanced off of it.

Speaker 3

Appreciate the dividend, our commitment to the dividend and keeping it in place as we manage through this. I'll use the direct quotes. Don't solve a near term issue with a long term structural impact and impacting the equity in the short term to the significance You've seen with some of the other companies that have cut their dividend would be significant.

Speaker 2

Great. Helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jon Andersen from William Blair.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning. I'm sorry if this has been already addressed a couple of times, but I just did I do want Just see if I can get some more clarity on the 2024 commentary that Matt gave. Maybe if you can just walk us Drew, again, the thinking or the baseline assumptions around sales growth, and in particular on gross margin, Is that 100 basis point of year on year improvement, is that on an adjusted basis, meaning is it Excluding one time adjustments in both years such as the inventory write downs this year. And then again, how much Debt reduction are you assuming in 2024 relative to 2023? And I guess lastly, I think I heard EBITDA referred to $600,000,000 in 2024.

Speaker 4

Did I hear that right? Is that What's implied by the EPS of $3.50 to $4 Thanks.

Speaker 3

All right. A lot to go through. 1, early days looking at 2024. So the reason that we are talking about 2024 is to give you all a viewpoint on how we think we can navigate over the next year. Okay.

Speaker 3

So things will change, but these are kind of the waypoints that we're laying out. Mid single digits growth, you heard Mike and Jim Talk about our broadening relationships with retailers, all of the factors that are going into that to improve our positions across the shelf to improve our positions with the consumer so that they are activated and that they are motivated to continue to participate in the space, mid single digits volume growth. On the gross margin line, And I think Eric hit it directly. We are managing what is in our control. So another $100,000,000 of cost out.

Speaker 3

That is incremental. And as Jim said, that's already started. So that will be in next year's earnings. On the pathway to All of that, that means that we are getting more efficient. That means that there is additional profitability to come out.

Speaker 3

And we told you this year, we're about $100,000,000 behind in U. S. Consumer that will come back next year On top of the efficiencies that we are gaining, that's where you get the delta and kind of your low four ish Type $400,000,000 ish EBITDA this year to getting back to that $600,000,000 type EBITDA next year. From there, you look at the balance sheet and what we're able to do. Considering that this $1,000,000,000 over 2 years, we've said is kind of going to be equal weighted Between 2023 2024, this year we're going to pay down $300,000,000 of debt.

Speaker 3

I think it's good to assume next We'll pay down $300,000,000 of debt. You can then what I've said is use an average interest rate in 5.25 to 5.50 land Can work that through on the EPS side, also took a look at the tax rate and said, hey, this year we're running a little bit higher, next year Pathway to 25%, 26%, all of that contributes to an EPS delta that gets you to that kind of $3.50 to $4 range. Oh, one thing that I didn't answer, your gross margin rate. I look at things on an adjusted basis. Let's get back to what is happening.

Speaker 3

There is $20,000,000 in this quarter that is running through our P and L in the U. S. Consumer business. To me, it's a restructuring item and I know that I am the accountant here. But at the end of the day, I don't The true underlying power of the earnings of this company, you remove that.

Speaker 3

It's one time. It's a write down. So I do that. I got $1.42 in earnings in Q3. I think that's just off of where the consensus was.

Speaker 3

I look at the $20,000,000 add back to gross margin and I build from there. So it would be incremental when you add that back. And by the way, the adjusted Margins that we report sorry, the margins that we report and talk about are adjusted.

Speaker 4

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question comes from Andrew Carter from Stifel.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I guess just real quickly,

Speaker 8

it's like taking holistically thinking about this year, there's been a lot of weather headwinds, there's been loads, channel loads. You mentioned the isolate what you consider an isolated incident around grass seeds. Do you feel like you still have the position of strength with your retail partners and like in terms of kind of the category leadership and or has that gone backwards? And kind of remind us on private label, At the retailer level, do they make more margin dollars than your branded product? What's the trade off there for influencing private label?

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay. I'm going to leave the how much do they make on private label and our products. I'm quite sure it's more on ours, but I'll leave that to people who know better than I. Let's talk about our position of partnership or authority in the relationship with our retailers. You have no idea how much stronger it is As a result of what we have all been through, and I'm talking about at the most senior levels of our biggest retailers.

Speaker 2

I view them all as kind of personal friends and it's not because we don't matter, it's because we all matter to each other. I would put it this way, not I expect anybody to feel sorry for me. It has been a really long kind of year in a few months, like really long. Like one of the few people I can actually talk about this is senior execs at our retail partners. And when we are trying to make quarters, we I have to go visit them and so does Mike.

Speaker 2

You know what we learned? That Not only are we like personal friends with these folks, but they need us and we need them. And they view us as not less important, more important. And when we're talking about the Selective price adjustments we're making that will result in incremental listings at our top retailers. You do know what that means.

Speaker 2

That doesn't mean diminishing power. That means increasing relationships with our Most important partners and the biggest retailers in the world. And so I would say right off the bat, As we have really Mike and I have had to make sales calls this last year. It has been one of the really great experiences in my life And I want to thank any retailer who's listening, to be able to sit with them and share what's happening at this business and how we needed their help and they gave it without having to really beg. And so I can't tell you how much Mike and I appreciate it, but that is not a sign of a diminishing or weaker relationship.

Speaker 2

Mike, anything?

Speaker 5

No, I would say the relationship is even stronger than ever. And so we're dependent on each other and we're going to work together, so we both win. So and I think that's what I think if you look at look, I'd have to go

Speaker 2

with the numbers. I think if you look over the last 5 or 6 years, so my data is dated and between sales and finance So we're all in here, they can probably answer this question better. Over time, we have definitely been taking share in I think all categories we participate in. If you look over the like the last decade, My numbers are a little dated, but I think if you looked and said what would be pretty typical would be maybe fifty-fifty in units. But within that fifty-fifty in units, probably 60 plus percent of the dollars are branded products within that mix.

Speaker 2

So they make a bigger margin percent for sure, but I'm Sure on the dollars, it's the brand inside, it's where they make a lot of their money. So I think those numbers are pretty right, which is call it fifty-fifty units that's probably 60 plus percent our business and 40% private label dollars. The margins are better, but the dollars, I'm quite sure, are higher in our space. And they're all nodding yes to that, Andrew, so I don't know if that answered your question.

Speaker 8

Yes, it did. Thank you. And I'll go ahead since it's late, pass it on.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Scotts Miracle-Gro Q3 2023
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