The InterGroup Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 3, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 WillScot Mobile Mini Earnings Conference Call. My name is Amy, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct the question and answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the call over to Nick Gerardi, Senior Director of Treasury and Investor Relations. Nick, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to the WillScot Mobile Mini Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Participants on today's call include Brad Sultz, Chief Executive Officer and Tim Boswell, President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's presentation material may be found on the Investor Relations section The WillScot Mould Mini website. Slide 2 contains our Safe Harbor statement. We will be making forward looking statements today During the presentation and our Q and A session, our business and operations are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control.

Speaker 1

As a result, our actual results may differ materially from today's comments. For a more complete description of the factors that could cause actual results to differ And other possible risks, please refer to the Safe Harbor statement in our presentation and our filings with the SEC. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad Soltz.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Nick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Brad Sult, CEO of WillScot Mobile Mini. Let's start on Slide 16 of our 2Q investor deck. 2Q 2023 was another terrific quarter for our company and showcases the predictable compounding returns And cash generation that are clearly accelerating as we scale the business.

Speaker 2

As shown on this page, we are already exceeding or on track to outpace All of the performance metrics that we laid out in our Investor Day in November of 2021. Revenue increased 11% year over year due to the compounding effect of rate Optimization and VAPS penetration. Adjusted EBITDA increased 25 percent to 261,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 500 basis points, a function of both the high flow through of rate and VAPS as well as the margin enhancement initiatives on which we've been focused Since we began operating on the SAP platform about 2 years ago. At 45% adjusted EBITDA margin, we're at the top end of the milestone range that we laid out in our Cash generation in our business is just outstanding. We achieved a company record of $160,000,000 of free cash flow And 27% free cash flow margin during the quarter.

Speaker 2

Year to date, we delivered $263,000,000 of free cash flow And expect to generate well in excess of $500,000,000 of free cash flow in 2023. Clearly, we're well on our way towards our next free cash flow milestone of $650,000,000 And with leverage at 3 turns, net debt to adjusted EBITDA and at the bottom end of our target range of 3 to 3.5 turns, our approach Capital allocation remains unchanged and unconstrained. During the quarter, we allocated $43,000,000 to net CapEx. We invested $70,000,000 in M and A And we repurchased 5,400,000 shares of our common stock for $239,000,000 Over the last 12 months, we've now returned $891,000,000 to shareholders And reduced economic share count by 9.1%. All in, our financial performance was outstanding, And our results this quarter demonstrate the powerful and predictable compounding of our portfolio.

Speaker 2

Commercially, I'm excited to announce that our team successfully launched our premium storage VAPS offering or ProRack, which you can see a picture of on the cover of this investor deck on our website. ProRack is a proprietary space management solution that fits inside storage containers. It's safe, durable, easy to install, easy to use and solves customer problems with flexible configurations to function as desks, material storage, pipe rack, tool crib, shelves or any of the above. ProRack is modular in nature and that we can connect up to 4 ProRack modules on each side of a 40 foot container, Building flexible configurations for our customers. ProRack is a perfect example of the type of innovation that differentiates us in the market And helps our customers operate more safely, comfortably and efficiently during their projects.

Speaker 2

I'm incredibly proud of the product development, commercial and operational teams And the collaboration that drove this innovation as well as many others in the pipeline. As a reminder, VAPS across the portfolio Represent $500,000,000 of our $1,000,000,000 of idiosyncratic growth levers. Modular, including the ground level offices, Represents $370,000,000 of the $500,000,000 based on the portfolio currently in place. In order to realize the balance of the $130,000,000 from storage, We simply need to achieve storage FAPS delivered rates of $70 per unit. We're extremely confident in reaching And likely eclipsing this milestone in the next 3 to 5 years.

Speaker 2

As a point of reference, our last 12 month delivered rate in storage is already over $20 per unit And that's with only 1 year since the rollout of our basic offering and before any contribution from PORAC. Flipping back to Slide 10. In short, not much has changed from our Q1 2023 earnings call with respect to end market demand. We're continuing to experience robust demand across commercial, industrial end markets, particularly in manufacturing and professional services. As expected, retail demand was down in the quarter driven by deferral of storage remodels at major non mall based retailers, Which is impacting storage volumes in Q2 and Q3.

Speaker 2

That said, we've now started to receive orders for seasonal storage needs. And while we're early in, both the timing and quantity of these are consistent with our expectations. Also, as noted, And expected non residential construction starts both on a dollar and square foot basis has been below the record levels in 2022. The Architectural Billing Index, which has been a good forward indicator of non residential construction starts in 9 to 12 months, has now stabilized at neutral to positive range in the Q2 following modest contracting levels throughout the prior two quarters. And like our customers' project backlogs, The AIA, the inquiry index leading to the ABI has remained robust throughout.

Speaker 2

Further of note, our 2nd quarter quoting activity in the NA Modular segment Was up modestly in the Q2, again against extremely robust levels realized in 2022. Geographically strength in the U. S. Southeast Carolinas down to Florida, the Midwest and the desert states have been countering relatively weaker demand in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Northeast, U. S. West Coast States and Canada. And while we continue to maintain a prudent outlook with respect to end market demand through the balance of 2023, we're extremely excited about the potential tailwinds Associated with on shoring and reshoring and infrastructure projects that we expect to further accelerate in 2024 and persist for years to come. Large scale reshoring projects have already been breaking ground in the North America, which represent material and long duration opportunities to deploy our services.

Speaker 2

We're actively participating, bidding and winning multiple $1,000,000,000 projects in sectors such as chemicals, power gen, renewables, electric vehicles, Semiconductors, etcetera. And with our recently combined CRM, our storage and modular field sales teams now have uniform visibility into all projects, And we are even further disproportionately well positioned to provide complex value added total space solutions to our customers with our unrivaled scale, product offering capabilities, and particularly as the product size and complexity increase. And quickly on Slide 18, our rates continued to compound powerfully and predictably across the portfolio. In our storage segment, portable storage average monthly rates increased 27% as we continue to execute our price management roadmap, Leverage our best in class tools and technology investments and the new product positioning. Storage of apps, while still in the very early innings, We'll begin to contribute more meaningfully in 2024 and provide a recipe for years of sustained double digit rate growth as we've experienced over the last 5 In our modular segment, rental rates increased 19% versus prior year and a robust 6% sequentially, Driven by both increased rate and VAPS penetration.

Speaker 2

Spreads between modular delivered spot rates in the last 12 months have Over the last 12 months in the average of the portfolio continue to remain above 30%. Now before I hand the call over to Tim, I would like to take a moment to thank our team for safely and frugally delivering yet another outstanding quarter And progressing each of our $1,000,000,000 idiosyncratic growth levers. Along the way, the team has exceeded or is On track to eclipse all 7 of the ambitious multiyear growth and return metrics we committed to at our Investor Day In late 2021. With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim for additional context.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Page 21 shows a high level summary of the quarter. Similar to Q1, we saw exceptionally strong financial performance across both segments, Driven by continued strong pricing and value added products penetration and outstanding margin performance across all revenue streams, Resulting in record profitability and free cash flow. As Brad pointed out, we are approaching or exceeding every key financial metric in our operating ranges that we set At our Investor Day back in 2021, we still see over $1,000,000,000 of opportunity across our 5 growth levers. So as we look ahead into 2024, it's logical to expect that we'll find upside across many of these ranges.

Speaker 3

In the immediate term, the business is performing exactly as we would expect in this environment. Leasing revenues are compounding powerfully, up 16% year over year driven by pricing and value added products, which given our 3 year lease durations are in very healthy spot rate spreads We'll drive our run rate well into 2024 2025. In Q2, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash Slow margin and return on invested capital all expanded to record levels. I'll go into more detail on profitability drivers in a minute, We see multiple levers that will support margins well into 2024, which in turn is allowing us to allocate capital with confidence. We executed $70,000,000 of tuck in acquisitions in Q2 and expect that pace will increase through end of the year.

Speaker 3

And we are using our growing surplus capital to repurchase shares with $891,000,000 returned to shareholders in the last 12 months And that represents over 9% of our outstanding share count over that period. Overall, our expectations for the year are unchanged With revenue and EBITDA up 12% 19% respectively year over year at the midpoints. And as we approach the top end of our Investor Day operating ranges in 23, our belief in the longer term earnings potential and our platform is getting stronger. Slide 22 lays out revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. The commercial KPIs that Brad detailed drove revenue up 11% year over year to 582,000,000 Obviously, that growth was strongest in our leasing revenues and down slightly in sales.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA increased 25% year over year to $261,000,000 and we saw a normal sequential seasonal increase in our quarterly revenue and in line with our prior guidance. And in the bottom right chart, you can see that 97% of our revenue was coming from our reoccurring leasing and services revenues. So with sales revenue down about $5,000,000 year over year in the quarter, this is an extremely high quality and predictable revenue mix. It's worth spending a minute on our margin trajectory because it continues to be a source of upside in our performance and margins are benefiting from a combination of both 1st and as we've discussed on the last couple of calls, in the immediate term, Work order activity is down relative to 2022 levels and as a result our variable rental costs are up only $5,000,000 year over year. That increase is entirely due to inflation and that inflationary impact will reduce as we progress through the year, which means leasing gross margins will have a natural tailwind as we head into 2024.

Speaker 3

2nd, and again, as I mentioned last quarter, We are realizing very meaningful efficiencies in our modular refurbishment spend, having now operated in SAP for over 2 years. Our average cost per modular refurbishment was down approximately 20% year over year in Q2 and that is despite inflationary pressures. This is driving refurbishment CapEx down and free cash flow margin up to a record 27% in Q2. We believe these work order spend efficiencies are sustainable, and we expect further relief from inflationary pressures as we progress into 2024, Resulting in improved capital efficiency and cash conversion relative to the last few years. 3rd, We continue to see benefits of the improvements we made in 2022 to our logistics margins, which increased 2 30 basis points year over year.

Speaker 3

This has been driven primarily by pricing, which we expect to continue. But we also see opportunity for cost efficiency as we Our operations onto field service lightning within our salesforce.com platform later this year, Which will enable improved route management and then ultimately optimization. The market for sourcing drivers and trucks is also improving, which should allow us to in source more expanded 370 basis points year over year and were up across all revenue lines and in both segments. And lastly, we're now getting very good leverage out of SG and A, which was down 2 60 basis points year over year to 23% of revenue. In absolute dollars, SG and A was down sequentially and flat year over year, driven primarily by reduced variable compensation, Again, relative to 2022, which was an unusually strong year for bonuses and commissions.

Speaker 3

Looking forward, as we stabilize in our new consolidated CRM, We see significant opportunities to improve back office and workflow efficiency and expect this will be another source of operating leverage heading into 2024. All of this combined to drive adjusted EBITDA margin up 500 basis points year over year to 44.9% for the quarter, Which is the top end of our Investor Day operating range. Flow through of revenue growth to adjusted EBITDA of 88% And free cash flow margin of 27% are both outstanding. And we can look across all of the underlying key drivers and see benefits into 2024 and beyond. So margins are clearly an area where we see upside relative to our prior long term guidance.

Speaker 3

Page 23 provides more detail on cash flow, which is a highlight. Net cash provided by operating activities increased 7% year over year to $202,000,000 Keep in mind that these cash metrics are not adjusted for discontinued operations. So cash flows from our current operations are growing faster 7% on a pro form a basis and we expect that they will continue to expand in the second half of twenty twenty three. Net CapEx was $43,000,000 which is effectively at maintenance levels for the Q2 in a row. As I mentioned, moderating inflation combined with improved work order are driving sustainable improvements in capital spend, whereas new fleet purchases are purely demand driven and won't be necessary given the fleet additions of last year.

Speaker 3

Steady top line growth, margin expansion and moderated CapEx resulted in company record quarterly free cash flow of 160,000,000 And a 27% free cash flow margin. If annualized, this represents a $640,000,000 free cash flow run rate, Which gives us direct line of sight to the $650,000,000 free cash flow target that we established at our 2021 Investor Day And over $3 of free cash flow per share based on today's run rate and share count of approximately 197,000,000 shares. For the purposes of 2023, we see quarterly free cash flows in line with Q2 levels through the remainder of the year, Which implies free cash flow for the year well in excess of $500,000,000 and with a stronger run rate heading into 2024. Turning to Page 24, consistent with Q1, we are operating very comfortably at 3.0 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, At the bottom end of our target leverage range of 3.0 to 3.5 times. We have over $1,000,000,000 of liquidity on our asset backed revolver, so No near term maturities of debt and a weighted average pre tax interest rate of approximately 5.8%.

Speaker 3

So with these factors, accelerating free cash flow and record return on invested capital, we are unconstrained from a capital allocation standpoint. And Page 25 shows how our capital allocation framework and how we've allocated that capital over the last 12 months. Our capital allocation approach continues to be consistent with the framework that we shared at our 2021 Investor Day, which is shown on the left. As shown in the middle chart, we generated $1,600,000,000 of capital on a leverage neutral basis over the last 12 months inclusive of divestitures. Based on current guidance, net CapEx will decrease slightly as a percent of capital generated for the full year 2023 following the record levels in 2022.

Speaker 3

On the other hand, given our pipeline of tuck in acquisition candidates, capital allocated to M and A should increase as we progress through the remainder of the year. That still leaves substantial surplus capital generated by the business, which we are returning to shareholders via our share repurchase authorization, Having reduced our economic share count by 9.1% over the last 12 months. Given the long term earnings growth potential in our business, Share repurchases are the right way to return capital and reinvesting in our business consistent with this framework is yet another lever within our control to deliver Lastly, before turning it back to Brad and opening Q and A, Page 26 shows our current guidance, which is unchanged from the prior quarter. All else equal, I would expect margins to continue trending stronger than we originally And with continued work order efficiencies also benefiting CapEx, but the underlying mix of price volume and value added products is largely unchanged, Which means our run rate expectations heading into 2024 are also unchanged. Again at the midpoints revenue would be up 12% EBITDA would be up 19% for the year with 2 50 basis points of margin expansion and free cash flow should be well north of $500,000,000 Up over 60% year over year, all of which sets up a strong trajectory for 2024.

Speaker 3

As we progress from Q2 to Q3, I expect adjusted EBITDA to be flat or slightly down sequentially in Q3 With margins compressing sequentially, assuming variable rental costs continue to build through these seasonally stronger months, And then I would expect margins to expand again sequentially into Q4, which is almost always our most profitable seasonal quarter. Acquisitions, seasonal retail demand, variable leasing costs and delivery and installation or sales revenues Really the only variables at this point that could take us higher or lower in those ranges as our leasing revenues are largely booked at this point in the year. That's the beauty of the predictability in our portfolio. It means we have a very high degree of confidence that we'll deliver the guidance and an outstanding year And one which keeps us on track to achieve or exceed all of our longer term operating targets. We've got a proven formula to drive sustainable growth and returns.

Speaker 3

We've got the best team in the business with a track record of consistent execution, and we've got a $1,000,000,000 portfolio of growth opportunities That will drive the business well beyond 2024, which is where we're focused. With that Brad, I'll hand it back to you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tim. As always, Thank you to our team and our customers for their continued support and thank you to our shareholders for your continued trust with your capital. And Thanks again to the team for the hard work to deliver not just the quarter, but as Tim referenced, continuing to drive towards 2024 and beyond. I wish all of you listening today continued safety and good health. This concludes our prepared remarks.

Speaker 2

Operator, would you please open the line for questions?

Operator

Our first question comes from Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. My questions are on portable storage volumes down, I think, 6%, Primarily, I think, due to a pause on retail refurbishments, but I was curious if you were seeing softness anywhere else And any other markets as well or if that was the overwhelming primary driver of the decline was from the retail side? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Tim, that was the primary driver, but we are seeing the same kind of underlying core softening that you see in modular To storage as well.

Speaker 3

Okay. Got you. So are you Expecting a similar again for portable storage volumes, a similar volume decline in the 3rd 4th quarters as well?

Speaker 2

Now, this is similar as we characterized in the last earnings call. This first look at core demand, we expect to be down At the end of the year 2% to 3%, you'll see that most prevalent in modular. And then we had the compounding effect in the second and third quarter of the store remodels, Which was like 15,000 containers on a year over year decline.

Speaker 3

Okay. And with these volumes coming down, is that also an indication Spot rates are softening up right now as well.

Speaker 4

I'm just curious if like after 2 years inflation and supply chain constraints, if you're just

Speaker 3

if you're seeing spot rates moving lower We're not

Speaker 2

no, really not seeing pressure on spot rates. I mean the market is very well organized. We're continuing to be Frugal in terms of driving the incremental value with the product positioning and the logistics capability, The differentiated premium offering, so really not seeing any pressure on delivered spot rates. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, We're really not seeing much contribution from VAPS yet in storage, which will become more meaningful in 2024 and give us kind of that Recipe that we've had in place for modular for 5 years driving double digit rate growth, playing out in storage as well.

Speaker 3

Got it. Keep that in mind. Thanks, Brett.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks so much. Tim, Framed really nicely kind of the variables on the full year guide. I was wondering what you think about the dollar amount associated with them. And then just Quick follow-up.

Speaker 5

It's a lot of money, like, right? I mean, dollars 650,000,000 is a lot of cash. Any thoughts? I know traditional capital allocation, but just any thoughts around maybe dividend or just to forge a lot of opportunity, particularly given where the Balance sheet sits today. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Hey, Kevin, this is Tim. I'll start with the guidance and variables that could move us around Within there, but the punch line is, as I said in my remarks is the mix of volume, price and value added products really isn't any different than we Anticipated coming out of the Q1 call, which indicates relatively relative stability across all of those key leasing KPIs. To Brad's point, we always from the outset of the year projected some year over year delivery declines from a core modular standpoint. That's more a function of 2022 being extremely robust rather than anything particularly different about 2023. And then you add the retail component on to that, which I think we've talked about at length right now.

Speaker 3

That retail piece is a source of potential As we go into Q4, as you know, we always service seasonal storage for the big non mall based retailers going into the second half of Q3 and then into Q4 and we've obviously got more idle capacity this year With which to respond to that demand, and we're actively pursuing it. Acquisitions, as always in our guidance, are incremental. Variable cost progression is a factor which should drive a Temporary and sequential decline of EBITDA from Q2 to Q3, that's normal as volume activity picks up in the business. And then I'd expect those margins to pop back up probably north of Q2 levels when we get into Q4. So that's the sequential progression that we're expecting.

Speaker 3

And then the last variable that can move quickly Is delivery and installation and sales revenues. Sales revenue is not a particular focus for us. We're 100% concentrated on driving that lease revenue run rate At any point in time, and we still see a very attractive run rate growth heading into 2024, which again is our primary focus And unchanged from the prior quarter. As it relates to your questions around capital allocation, we haven't changed our framework And frankly, we're very happy right now to deploy that surplus capital into the share repurchase as we look out 2, 3, 4 years in terms of where the business is going. That's absolutely an accretive source of return for our long term shareholders over time and We consider ourselves to be among those.

Speaker 3

Your question around dividend is a good one. The stability of our cash Closed streams absolutely support that type of capital allocation. So I think it's more a question of when not if we start having that Discussion with the Board, but sitting here today, obviously, the share repurchase is the right place to be putting our dollars.

Speaker 5

Makes a ton of sense. Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, good morning. I wanted to follow-up on portable storage spot pricing. Based on the gap that you mentioned around 10%, It looks like there's some deterioration from 1Q into 2Q, but then I heard you say that there hasn't been deterioration. So can you just Maybe clarify that for us.

Speaker 6

And I think historically, Tim, you've talked About how you've been a beneficiary of inflation. And now with the disinflation narrative taking place, I'm curious

Speaker 2

Yes, this is Brett. I'll clarify the rate and then pass it over to Tim for the inflationary point. Yes, the delivered spot rates for containers Continue to progress. That compression in the spread, if you will, is simply a function of faster convergence of the fleet. I think that spread was Approaching modular back at the Q4 when we had the seasonal units out last year at record level prices, Prices that were above the average of the core markets.

Speaker 2

So that spread compression, if you will, is not a function of declining Growth in spot rates rather quicker convergence to the average of the portfolio.

Speaker 3

Hey, Pfizer, this is Tim. I think the disinflation narrative is exactly that. It's a narrative, not necessarily The reality, especially what you see across construction markets, I don't think you'd talk to a contractor out there that's Talking about kind of disinflation across their business. So this is still an extremely healthy Environment for both modular and container pricing, and then you add on some of the other tactical In strategic techniques that we use to drive product positioning, price segmentation, the value added products and services offering, And then also benefiting from our differentiated logistics capabilities, especially on the storage side of the business where that's a differentiator. So no pricing continues to be a highlight and we don't see anything changing in that regard as we progress through the year.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Andrew Wittmann with Baird, your line is open.

Speaker 7

Great. I just wanted to clarify a response to a prior question. I think Brad you mentioned that Core demand was down 2 or 3 was kind of the expectation for the year. I just want to make sure, was that comment specific to the storage segment Or was that for the company overall? And could you comment on your updated expectations if any for core demand on the modular side of the business this year?

Speaker 2

Yes. So the modular and let's wrap in the commercial and non resi market separating retail. As we said on the last call, we expect it to be down 2%, 2% range at the end of the year. That same effect It will impact the storage as well. The layover in storage is retail and it's really there's a bifurcated effect And storage, you've got the remodels in the middle of the year.

Speaker 2

They largely didn't occur. And then you have your normal seasonal opportunity at the end of the year. The remodels didn't occur. The seasonal demand, as I mentioned in my prepared comments, has just started in terms of order flow. It's in line with our Expectation in demand and timing, but it's very early in.

Speaker 2

So I guess that's the bigger moving part, if you will, Andy, in storage as you look at year end projections.

Speaker 7

Yes, got it. So and then Tim, I just thought just given that this has come up a couple of times this morning in some conversations, the quarter came in a little bit better than expected. And just talk about, how that did or did not affect, the way you approach guidance, the updated guidance here, which is, I guess, the same as last quarter?

Speaker 3

Yes, like you said, a little bit better than expected, but we're not going to get 2Q trying to manage guidance plus or minus 1% here. Very happy with the results in the quarter and encouraged by the margin trends in particular. Core leasing KPIs very much in line with what we expected last quarter, but this is a business we're looking out 2 or 3 years and most of our time is spent focused on driving run rates and things like that that will push us over that type of time horizon. So very happy with the trajectory of the business. Implied run rate going into next year, it sets up a very good 2024.

Speaker 3

Frankly, I can't find any real, red flags across our core KPIs that would cause me concern about executing any of those long term targets.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much. Good morning all. So a lot of questions with regard to just consideration for demand across the 2 main segments. Could you all please elaborate on It sounds like just in general this core demand of about down 2% to 3% for the year, slightly softer than where you We're looking at the year at the beginning. Could you talk about non res, reshoring, Chips and Science Act, Infrastructure Bill, Inflation Reduction Act, What you're seeing across all these, that would pose any risk or upside to that down 2% to 3% In the back half and going into 2024.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Scott. Again, this is a reminder, these are 3 year lease duration. So You know on rent moves slowly, I would recall my comments in the prepared remarks, our Q2 North American modular quote rates We're modestly up over prior year and prior year was at record levels. So there's no crisis or issue here. Now objectively, Construction non resi starts in the first half whether you look at dollars or square foot were down, right?

Speaker 2

ABI Went through a soft period, it's now stabilized. So there's no new news here. This is what we alluded to when we issued guidance. We kind of reaffirmed in the Q1 And that's really where we're sitting here today. So, I think as we look forward into the second half of the year and certainly into 2024, We're extremely excited about the potential of the on shoring, reshoring infrastructure stimulus and such.

Speaker 2

And it's not The fact that we're sitting here waiting for something materialize in DC, it's already happening, right? We're bidding, we're winning these projects. They're super exciting and we are extremely uniquely positioned to take advantage of the opportunity And service the customers' needs in these cases.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. Thanks, Brad. And then my second question is Two parter with regard to VAPS. Your European peer talks about its VAPS penetration.

Speaker 8

That's around greater than 60%. Where would you say this is specifically about modular? Your VAPS penetration is, is the first part of the question. The second part is, in the quarter, the VAPS average month The rental rate was up 13% year over year, but the LTM delivered rate was down 1% year over year. Are you tapping out on the VAPS story is where I'm going with this.

Speaker 8

If you could just describe that dynamic in the quarter? And is there any concern that maybe modular is getting long in the tooth in the VAPS story, you've maintained the 650, Is that going to come from portable now or are we still feeling comfortable on modular? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Hey, Scott. It's Tim. I'll attempt to answer at least the First part regarding our European peer, but I think the best way to look at penetration is VAPS Revenue relative to kind of the core unit leasing revenue. And if you look at our delivered rate of, call it, 4.71 Over the last 12 months in a spot rate that's north of $1,000 per unit for modular, You're really easily approaching that 50% range. If you wanted to look at penetration just in terms of the relative dollar Contribution, I think that's probably the best way to do it.

Speaker 3

So we're really just focused on that dollar contribution at the end of the day. There is some while the LTM batch delivered rate has flattened out, I think you also saw a commensurate Pickup in core unit lease pricing in modular, and that's there is some Fungibility is the wrong word between those 2, but in the core unit pricing standpoint, for example, we're getting surcharges now for things like Restrooms and sanitation, which are value added in their own right, although not going to be impacting the LTM delivered And as we look at just the core VAPS offering across the sales force, there's still a very wide dispersion of performance around that with Top performers well in excess of the numbers that we're reporting here today. That's been the case forever and that's the best Practice sharing and coaching that we use to drive this over time and this has been going on now for well over 10 years And no change in terms of our expectations of pushing the sales force to $6.50 per unit over time.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks, Tim. Appreciate that color.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next Question comes from Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Maybe just start with the CapEx efficiencies you have gotten so far in the modular refurbishment efforts. Was this part of the $500,000,000 target or the 3 to 5 year target of well over $500,000,000 And is this enough to move that range upwards As you keep building on these efficiencies.

Speaker 3

Stephen, this is Tim. That's a good question because as we go back to think about the Investor Day Framework that we laid out, we presented a bridge to $650,000,000 of free cash flow and the CapEx assumption in that bridge was Circa $275,000,000 That $275,000,000 probably wouldn't have had an assumption Around the inflation that we incurred through the course of 2022, nor would it have assumed meaningful Refurbishment efficiency. So I think there's probably some natural offset there such that I'm actually very comfortable with the $275,000,000 that we put in that bridge. In fact, it's the midpoint of our guidance this year, not coincidental. So I don't know that I'd point to too much Change there other than it is definitely an improvement over the 2022 run rate that we're on And gives me confidence that we can keep it, in the range that we had advertised as we head into 2024 and beyond.

Speaker 9

Okay. Interesting. That's great. And then on storage vats, I realize it's not a small it's a tiny part of The reality for current financial results, but is this part of conversations with retail customers For Q4 and is this part of conversations with customers on quoting activity for projects that are set to start over the next 12 months?

Speaker 3

100% on storage VAPS. And the nature of these things is they do take a little while to build. But as the portfolio churns, you start to get a compounding contribution from these types of things. And I won't say that, VAPS in the storage segment are insignificant. If you The ground level office fleet for example, we'll be pushing north of $90,000,000 of revenue this year from value added products And associated services in storage.

Speaker 3

The container portion of that, is just now beginning to build. And if you look over like the last 6 months or so, you're delivering the average container with north of $30 per unit per month, value added products and services, Which translates to probably a $50,000,000 run rate as you go into 2024 and that's before any contribution from ProRack, Right. So this is playing out frankly better than we expected back at Investor Day. And the other thing, just to follow-up on Scott's question, as you just think about what does all this mean? If we just hold value added products penetration where it is Today across all of these products, you're talking about a $200,000,000 revenue convergence opportunity that is yet to flow through our P and L.

Speaker 3

Pricing where it is today, there's about another $200,000,000 convergence opportunity that is yet to flow through the P and L. So these are things we're very excited about. We're continuing to push the spot rate side of things. We absolutely have a value added products Penetration opportunity, on storage that we're seeing, which is becoming part of the customer conversation. And to Scott's question a minute ago, No concerns about getting back to that 600 per unit trajectory on modular.

Speaker 9

That's excellent color. Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Philip Ng with Jefferies.

Speaker 4

Nervous about new non res activity slowing down. You called out ABI as well. But you also highlighted a strength on the infrastructure side and some of these mega projects. So When you think about these crosscurrents, looking out to 2024, how should we think about what that translates to volumes next year? And any color on how your bidding activity is progressing so far?

Speaker 2

Yes. As I referenced, our quoting activity In the Q2, NA Modular was up modestly over prior year. That's phenomenal, especially considering how strong 2022 was. As far as like crosscurrents, The fact that the ABI stabilized into neutral positive territory, right, following 2 quarters of contracting territory, that's very supportive of a 2024 outlook. So I think we've probably seen if the ABI continues to remain strong, We see kind of core markets stable and recovering and you basically pour jet fuel on with infrastructure, on shoring, reshoring and everything else That's already beginning to play out today.

Speaker 4

Okay. So it sounds like Brad at this juncture, appreciating your business is pretty short cycle. You're not expecting volumes to be down Big next year. It sounds like it might have some upside next year. So that's pretty encouraging.

Speaker 4

And I guess switching gears, question for Tim. I think you went out of the way to kind of highlight, all the good stuff you guys are doing on the cost and execution side and then inflation Coming down and then still pretty good momentum on pricing. What kind of volumes decline would you need to see for margins not to be up net It sounds like you got a lot of runway on the margin side of things for 2024.

Speaker 3

Yes, I mean, I haven't done that exact math, Phil, that would be hard to get to, given I just said that you've got almost $400,000,000 of revenue convergence across pricing and value added products. And rough math is you get roughly a third of that flowing through a year, Just based on our 3 year lease durations and the cost efficiency opportunities on top of that, I feel very good about Margins going into 2024 and I think around this time last year, I said I felt very good about margins going into 2023 and we The pop 500 basis points in Q2 and we'll be up at least 2 50 basis points for the year. So No. This is a business where, you get those structural revenue growth opportunities flowing consistently and

Speaker 4

predictably through the

Speaker 3

portfolio as it churns. There's operating through the portfolio as it churns, there's operating leverage in the business and quite a bit of discretion over things like variable costs and CapEx, which I don't know, make me very happy about the margin trajectory.

Speaker 4

Great color. Really appreciate it.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning. This is Ronen Kennedy on for Manav. Thank you for taking my questions. On the M and A with the $80,000,000 of tuck in Acquisitions last quarter $70,000,000 this, what is the expected contribution for full year 2023? And then can you remind us about the acquisition Financial profile in terms of the multiple, the synergy unlocking value enhancement, economic return profile, etcetera.

Speaker 10

And on the return profile, the unit level cumulative cash flow, I don't think those have changed in the slides, the presentation. Have there been changes to the acquisition costs, the maintenance as a result of efficiencies, etcetera?

Speaker 3

Hi, Ronen. This is Tim. I'll start with your questions around acquisition contribution. And I think the best way to we called out that there is roughly $17,000,000 of revenue flowing into the Q2 numbers from acquisitions in the last 12 months. You can see assume that that annualized run rate is a little bit higher than the $17,000,000 because of Some of those occurred during the course of Q2.

Speaker 3

So call it $20,000,000 annualized that here at $80,000,000 put a mid to high 30s margin on that. And you've got an idea of the annualized EBITDA that's been acquired. And then if you compare that to the LTM acquisitions of 2 $66,000,000 in the last 12 months, you'll get about an 8.5 times implied enterprise multiple at which we purchased Those businesses, fair to assume over a 12 month period that we get some synergy uplift, primarily from costs and just Operating those assets and branches consistent with the rest of our branch network. And then over time, As the portfolio churns, we get the benefits of pricing uplift and value added products uplift depending on the specific asset class that We're talking about so the tuck in strategy is highly programmatic. We've got a team that meets weekly To manage a pretty exhaustive pipeline of opportunities both early stage and recently integrated.

Speaker 3

So it is a repeatable process and core competency that we've developed, since the completion of the Mobile Mini integration. And I'd expect that our investments there probably pick up a little bit as we close out 2023 and that continues to be part of Our growth algorithm as we go into future periods, so very happy with that. And we haven't been in the habit of updating kind of the Unity Economics slide every quarter. We kind of revisit it once a year based on material Changes. So, yes, we're seeing some improvements in that kind of refurbishment cost on modular In the latter, third of the unit's life.

Speaker 3

And in terms of unit sourcing costs relative to spot rates and things like that, I still think pointing to roughly 40, 48 month cash on cash payback on modular and 36 6 month cash on cash payback on containers, then accelerate those returns with value added products and services. Conceptually, that's still the right way to think about The unit economics in our business.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Appreciate it. And then as a follow-up to a prior Question that was asked on the CapEx efficiencies and the refurbs. Can I just confirm for the remainder of the year the expected sequential Progression on CapEx and free cash flow? And then when do you expect CapEx to kind of reflect or And flex to more to bring back some of the growth.

Speaker 10

I know it's a function of the 90 day capital planning, but what are the expectations for that?

Speaker 3

Yes. I'd expect that CapEx increases sequentially along with our other variable costs in the P and L into Q3. And then a little more, we haven't baked Q4 yet because we don't have a very long We have no long term supply commitments in this business. We can actually be very reactive based on demand. But I do expect CapEx to increase And then in terms of kind of more substantial fleet investment, there may be some Kind of niche categories that we have in mind that could come to play in Q4 as we head into 2024.

Speaker 3

But in terms of our core modular in storage fleet investments, we typically wouldn't be ramping those up to support core demand growth until we get into the second half of Q1 heading into Q2 of next year, and that will obviously be part of Our annual guidance for 2024, but to the question earlier, if I was starting to think about what's the Number that I sent around it would be that $275,000,000 number that we centered around in the Investor Day bridges that took us to the $650,000,000 free cash flow range.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 10

I'm sorry, free cash flow progression for Q3 and Q4, if I could please confirm that.

Speaker 3

Yes. It should be roughly in line with where we last coming out of Q2, maybe it's a bit based on increased Capital spend, going into Q3, there's also going to be some offsetting growth there. And then typically CapEx Would go down a bit and margins would go up a bit in Q4 and free cash flow historically has been highest in Q4. So that would be Probably a good base case to think about, but it will be demand driven and largely based on any CapEx fluctuation.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Brent Thielman with D. A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, great. Thank you. Good morning. Hey, Tim, just the consideration for margin expansion into the Q4, hoping just to clarify, to what degree is the Seasonal uptick in storage critical to that versus the other variables and drivers. In other words, would you still see that margin enhancement even if the Seasonal activity in storage is possibly less than what you anticipate today.

Speaker 3

Yes, Brent, it's absolutely the latter. The seasonal doesn't really impact my thinking At all as I give that guidance, it's really driven by the fact that repair and maintenance activity typically Slows down in Q4, but as you know our lease revenues just don't change very much, right? So what I would expect Sequentially coming out of Q2 is maybe we get up to 200 basis points of margin contraction as we go into Q3. That will be driven by variable costs ramping up in the business and then you could get maybe 400 sequential expansion going from Q3 into Q4 and that's again just driven by variable cost fluctuation in the business. Give me some latitude on the magnitude of those changes of course, but order of magnitude that's I think how we Finish the year and that puts you at a kind of record margin heading into 2024, which again is why I've got a high degree of confidence on that and it's not Driven really at all by the seasonal business.

Speaker 11

Got it. Okay. Appreciate that, Tim. And then just Could you guys speak to the supply dynamics in the industry for both modular and storage? I recall that being constrained In recent years, I presume you've always been prioritized among your vendors, but to what degree Do you see availability today for the industry versus a few years ago?

Speaker 11

Is there greater circulation out there in terms of assets? If you could comment on that, that'd be helpful.

Speaker 3

Brad, it's Tim. I haven't really seen any I'll start on the modular side of the business and to the extent we're sourcing traditional product domestically, which is what virtually all of our Competitors would be doing, we'd be sourcing from a network of 20 plus pretty much local Manufacturers of modular buildings, at most maybe 10% of the manufacturer's business would be focused on rental fleet. The primary focus Would be permanent modular construction projects, which is not an area where we care to participate. So it is a fairly limited domestic supply base. And I think because of that, you haven't seen procurement costs really come down At all, over the course of the last 12 months, which again, to one of the earlier questions around deflation, I think that's more a narrative than it is a reality in our business, right?

Speaker 3

Any new capacity coming into the market today, especially on modular, Is that a much higher cost basis than the industry would have been managing historically? And frankly, we have some prospective Sellers in our acquisition pipeline who are talking to us precisely because of that reason. Acquisition costs or procurement costs are up, Capital costs are up, which makes it more difficult for a smaller competitor to grow their business and enhances our Competitive position in the market given our available capacity. A little bit different on the storage side. Those container prices can fluctuate To an extent with the capacity in the maritime shipping world.

Speaker 3

But it's quite another question to have that capacity We filter its way into all of our diverse 300 local markets, where we're competing every day. So we just don't see that happening Or impacting supply availability to a material degree or frankly pricing to a material degree.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Sean Wondrack with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Good morning and great job on progressing on your goals for Investor Day. It's great to see.

Speaker 11

Thanks, Sean.

Speaker 3

When you think

Speaker 12

about some of these larger projects, the mega projects that continues to sort of dominate the headlines, When you think about the profile on that project, is that going to have like a different mix element than what you've typically seen given that they're And how they compare to your other contracts? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, Sean, it's a good question. I think There is absolutely going to be a mix shift in the overall balance of non residential construction activity Moving towards these types of projects and I think it's still very early innings when we look at Over 100 of these mega projects kind of in our CRM today, the vast majority haven't even started yet, right? And we do have a disproportionately high Win rate on those projects, and that is in part because they are larger, longer duration, more employees on-site, more likely to need More sophisticated, complex, higher square footage, turnkey solutions, which is our sweet spot. That's where we've got the strongest competitive positioning in the market and we're the only pure play space provider That can cross sell across all of our different capabilities into those opportunities. If you look at projects that have been Announced or awarded related to the infrastructure build, the vast majority of those haven't started yet either.

Speaker 3

So Brad talked about Non res square footage down in the first half of the year, that's really before the impact, I believe of the majority of these reshoring and infrastructure related projects, which is one of the reasons we feel pretty good about the future in 2024 on the volume side And our disproportionately strong competitive positioning given that mix change.

Speaker 12

Right. And that's very helpful. Thank you for that. And then when you just think about it, does it strike as a typical contract where it's roughly Your duration and then there are sort of escalators as you move forward? Or would it be like a 3 year project, maybe a little bit lower margin?

Speaker 12

I'm just Curious how that sort of looks from a high level.

Speaker 3

I wouldn't characterize the 3 year project as being lower margin because you've got very little variable associated with that contract over the course of 3 years. So absolutely these all else equal should skew longer duration relative to our What has now become a 13 month, I think, minimum contractual term, we have seen some increases in term, partly due to project delays, but I think part Due to the mix of our business and being positioned more towards these larger scale opportunities. So yes, I would longer contract duration on it tends to correlate with project size. And

Speaker 7

yes.

Speaker 12

Got it. That's very, very helpful. And then if I could sneak one more in. You have the 6.08 notes to the 2025 coming due in just short of 2 years. I was curious, are you considering doing something with them?

Speaker 12

Then also do you have the flexibility to repay them with your revolver, should you desire to do that?

Speaker 3

Yes, 100%. That's what the revolver is there for. We could refinance them into the All for tomorrow if we so choose. And then as you know, we've been a repeat issuer in the high yield market. There's no urgency to Frankly, do anything about the 6, then 8 notes right now, just given where short term benchmark rates have moved.

Speaker 3

So we're quite happy with them. We've always got the availability to refinance them into the ABL and we can be opportunistic as it relates to Activity in the high yield market, you'll be well aware, we got upgraded recently by S and P. So I think we're now Two notches closer to the United States credit profile. So, yes, very happy with the progression of our credit metrics And frankly the flexibility in our debt structure.

Speaker 12

All right. Thank you very much. Really great job. I appreciate your help.

Operator

We have now reached the end of today's call. I will now turn the call back over to Nick.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Amy. Thank you all for your interest in WillScot Mobile Mini. If you have additional questions after today's call, please contact me.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
The InterGroup Q2 2023
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