Great Southern Bancorp Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 23, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Fidelis Insurance Holdings Second Quarter and First Half twenty twenty three Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. Following the conclusion of formal remarks, The management will host a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. Participants are asked to limit themselves to one question and one follow-up during the Q and A session. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jillian Benson, Group Head of Reporting.

Operator

Ms. Benson, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss Fidelis Insurance Holdings limited 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Results. With me today are Dan Burrows, our CEO Alan DeClair, our CFO Johnny Strickle, our Chief Actuarial Officer and Ann Houston, our Chief Underwriting Officer. We will start with prepared comments by Dan and Alan, and then we will take your questions. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements in our press release and discussed on this call do constitute forward looking statements under federal securities laws within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend our forward looking statements to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby.

Speaker 1

These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are described in an IPO perspective dated June 28, filed with the SEC on June 30. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward looking statements have a reasonable basis by May, we can give no assurance that these expectations For more information, including on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should also review periodic reports that are filed by us with the SEC from time to time. Management will also make references to certain non GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to U.

Speaker 1

S. GAAP for each non GAAP financial measure can be found in our current report on Form 6 ks furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains our earnings press release and is available on our Investor Relations website at investors. Fidelityinsurance.com and on the SEC's website. With that, I'll turn it over to Dan.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Gillian, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by saying that I'm delighted to be speaking with you today on our first earnings call post IPO and to be updating you on our view of the market, The progress we've been making against our growth strategy and how that again has translated into robust financial and operational performance. We very much look forward to engaging with our analysts, our shareholders and the broader investment community going forward. We are pleased to have this opportunity to discuss our performance at the half year stage, which we believe further reinforces The strength of the Fidelis business model. Our structure is designed to deliver alpha underwriting returns for our exclusive partnership with the Fidatus MGU, which provides us with access to one of the most renowned underwriting teams In the business led by Richard Brindle, with a long track record of outperformance that translates into strong top and bottom line results for our business.

Speaker 2

We are strongly positioned as a leading specialty and bespoke insurer, underwriting risk into an attractive marketplace With a portfolio of 84% specialty and bespoke insurance, this is based on half year net written premium numbers. This is delivering attractive results as evidenced by our first half year performance. Compared to prior year, gross written premiums for the first half of the year increased 27 percent to $2,200,000,000 The strong top line growth has been coupled with compelling bottom line profitability. Our combined ratio improved year on year from 89% to 80.6% For the half year and our half year annualized operating ROAE is 18.2%. Now this is achieved against the backdrop of heightened loss activity for the industry, which per our recent report saw reported global insured losses The natural disasters in excess of $50,000,000,000 for the first half year, which is more than 40% above the 21st century mean.

Speaker 2

The market continues to be dislocated with a clear supply demand imbalance and we expect these whole market conditions to have duration. Due in part to no new start ups or notable inflow of significant new customers to market, unlike in previous hard market cycles. These market dynamics have presented opportunities for Davis, and we have grown our business, Leveraging our scale and targeting opportunities across our portfolio, maintaining significant lead status across all underwriting pillars. To recap on our underwriting strategy, our business focuses on 3 core pillars of underwriting: specialty insurance, Bespoke and Reinsurance. Our specialty pillar is focused on traditional specialty business lines such as aviation, Energy, Space, Marine and Property Direct and Facultators.

Speaker 2

Our bespoke pillar is focused primarily on highly tailored and specialized products, often purchased to facilitate underlying transactions and offer our clients enhanced capital efficiencies. This panel includes policies covering credit and political risk, political violence and terrorism and transactional liabilities. In reinsurance, we have an actively managed property catastrophe reinsurance book Optimized in line with our house view of risk and concentrated on core client relationships, a targeted attachment points with the aim of managing exposure and volatility. Leveraging our experience and deep position across these pillars, We take a nimble and thoughtful approach to underwriting and risk and capital allocation, which allows us to respond quickly to a consistently evolving marketplace. We have delivered a strong track record of performance, capturing compelling underwriting and combined ratios, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial position.

Speaker 2

We believe our combination of management expertise and access to top underwriting talent It positions us well to create value not only in the current market, but across market cycles with the goal of driving a consistent and compelling balance of risk and reward for our shareholders. Now touching on our performance across the 3 pillars, In our specialty pillar, we delivered gross written premium growth of 76% for the quarter and 63% for the half year. The growth was driven by marine, aviation and property direct and facultative, where we are able to take advantage of the dislocated market To secure significant new lines and participate in accounts with favorable terms, we achieved a renewal price index, which is our measure of year on year rate increases for the half year of 128% across the specialty portfolio. And we would expect to see further increases in this metric in the second half of the year as premium weighting shifts towards property D and F book where considerable pricing momentum continues. Our bespoke pillar continues to be a key focus and an area of differentiation.

Speaker 2

Driven by transaction activity, the contracts in this pillar tend to be more insulated against market cycles. However, we still saw evidence of pricing momentum with a half year renewal price index of 118%. The markets for our highly specialized products remain strong. There are high barriers to entry. And I would note, Due to the timing of selection of contracts we underwrite, gross written premium bespoke can fluctuate in a single period.

Speaker 2

And from a seasonality perspective, it tends to be weighted towards the second half of the year. In our reinsurance pillar, as previously documented, We began optimizing our portfolio in late 2021 to reflect our proprietary view of risk and concerns over inadequate pricing and the capture of climate change and inflationary impact. We continue to refine our portfolio and believe we are well positioned to be opportunistic in our CAPTCHA deployment, capturing improved rating whilst continuing to manage exposure and volatility. Half year renewal price index in the reinsurance pillar was 171%, reflecting the continuing market adjustment. Overall, we delivered another quarter of profitable growth built on the excellent results we achieved in Q1.

Speaker 2

Our performance was driven by our scale, our lead positioning and relevance, execution from our dedicated teams and the strength of our balance sheet. When taken altogether, these competitive advantages enable us to manage our business for long term profitable growth and create value for our shareholders. I'll now turn it over to Anne to walk through the financial results in more detail. Thanks, Dan. And I'd also like to welcome everyone to

Speaker 3

our first earnings Call is a public company. I look forward to working with all of you as we execute on our strategy and communicate our progress to the investment community. Please note that while we began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on June 29, the IPO and our primary capital raise of 100,000,000 did not close until July 3. And as such, the results I will be discussing are pre IPO. The IPO will be reflected in our 3rd quarter results.

Speaker 3

As Dan touched on, we had a strong second quarter performance With net income of $84,000,000 equating to $0.76 per diluted common share. For the 1st 6 months of 2023, we had net income of $1,800,000,000 or $16.39 per diluted common share. As a reminder, in the Q1, we recognized a net gain on distribution of Fidelis MGU of 1,600,000,000 Excluding this one time accounting gain, our net income for the first half of twenty twenty three was 177,000,000 Regarding our return on equity metric. In the past, we've shared our operating ROE, which was calculated based on beginning of year shareholders' equity. We are now transitioning to an operating return on average equity, which better aligns with our peers and investor expectations.

Speaker 3

For the Q2 of 2023, Our operating return on average equity was 17.6% on an annualized basis, compared with 4% in the prior year period. For the first half of twenty twenty three, our operating Turning to our gross premiums written. We saw growth of 25 percent to $957,000,000 in the quarter and 27% to $2,200,000,000 for the first half of twenty twenty three. Looking at our gross premiums written by segment, The significant growth in our gross premiums written was primarily driven by our Specialty segment, which grew 76% to $657,000,000 in the quarter and 63 percent to $1,500,000,000 for the first half of twenty twenty three. The increases primarily relate to new business and improved pricing and terms and conditions.

Speaker 3

The largest premium increases were in our Marine, Property D and F and Aviation and Aerospace lines of business. In our bespoke segment, gross premiums written were $55,000,000 $206,000,000 in the second quarter and half year of 2023, respectively, compared to $163,000,000 $298,000,000 in the prior year periods. The movement was a result of the timing of new contracts and renewals. Gross premiums written in Both can fluctuate due to the timing and selection of the contracts we underwrite. In addition, and as Dan noted, From a seasonality perspective, we typically experience greater demand in the second half of the year and therefore we don't anticipate a change to full year premium.

Speaker 3

In the Reinsurance segment, gross premiums remained fairly consistent at $245,000,000 $506,000,000 in quarter and half year respectively compared to $228,000,000 $520,000,000 in the prior year periods. We've been able to take advantage of the improved rate environment in terms and conditions, while moving away from attritional levels of our exposure. As you recall, we are predominantly a specialty and bespoke insurance business and have intentionally taken a cautious and opportunistic approach To deploying capital and reinsurance, we focus on top tier scenes and risks that meet our required pricing hurdles. When looking at net premiums on a consolidated basis, net premiums written increased by 35% to $615,000,000 in the quarter and increased by 36 percent to $1,300,000,000 for the half year of 2023. The increases were primarily driven by increase in gross premiums written and the decision to retain more profitable business in this dislocated market.

Speaker 3

On a net premiums earned basis, Our premium earned across all segments increased 27 percent to $429,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023 and by 24% to $815,000,000 for the half year of 2023. The growth was primarily driven by our decision to reallocate capital Our specialty lines of business from reinsurance during 2022, which earned through into the current year, particularly on Marine, Aviation and Aerospace and Property D and F. Our strong performance This resulted in our combined ratio improving to 82% for the Q2 of 2023 from 90.5% in the prior year period into 80.6% for the half year from 89% in the first half of twenty twenty two. This was primarily driven by a decrease in our loss ratio as a result of lower catastrophe and large losses for both the quarter year to date periods as well as lower attritional losses compared to the first half of twenty twenty two. When looking at our catastrophe and large losses for both the quarter and the half year, they were 64,000,000 which included losses related to the Sudan conflict, severe convective storms in the U.

Speaker 3

S. And from Cyclone Gabriel in New Zealand. These events impacted our Aviation and Aerospace, Property B and F and Property Reinsurance lines of business. This compares to $80,000,000 $144,000,000 of catastrophe and large losses In the Q2 and first half of twenty twenty two, which related primarily to the Ukraine conflict, European storms And Australian Plugs. Moving on to our prior year reserve development.

Speaker 3

We had net favorable prior year development of $2,400,000 $4,500,000 for the quarter and half year of 2023. This compares to net favorable development of $10,900,000 $15,500,000 in the prior year periods. I'd like to take a moment here to touch briefly on our exposure to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which has impacted multiple lines of business, including marine, aviation, political risk, trade credit and war political violence. Our reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, was $148,000,000 at June 30, 2023 compared to $146,000,000 at March 31, 2023. And we believe we are well reserved based on our assessment of the current environment.

Speaker 3

Moving on to expenses. Including all our segments, policy acquisition expenses from third parties increased to 122,000,000 or 28.5 points of the combined ratio for the quarter from $83,000,000 or 24.6 points of the combined ratio in the prior year period. For the first half of twenty twenty three, policy acquisition expenses from third parties increased to 227,000,000 were 27.9 points of the combined ratio from $151,000,000 or 22.9 points of the combined ratio. The increase in our policy acquisition expense ratio reflects a change in business mix, primarily driven by the growth of our Specialty segment. Our Fidelis MGU commissions were 53,000,000 were 12.3 points of the combined ratio for the quarter $77,000,000 or 9.4 points of the combined ratio The MGU Commission relates to seeding, portfolio management and profit commissions Agreed as part of the framework agreement with Fidelis MGU effective from January 1, 2023.

Speaker 3

Our general and administrative expenses were 19,000,000 were 4.3 points of the combined ratio for the quarter, a decrease from $42,000,000 or 12.4 points of the combined ratio in the prior year period. For the first half of the year, general and administrative expenses were $35,000,000 or 4.3 points of the combined ratio, a decrease from $77,000,000 or 11.7 points of the combined ratio. The decreases were primarily related to the reduced headcount following the consummation of the separation transactions. The combined Fidelis MGU commissions and general and administrative expense ratios are in line with our expectations as set out in the noted framework agreement and our operating model. Turning now to investments.

Speaker 3

Our strong results reflect net investment income of $27,000,000 for the Q2 of 2023 compared with $7,000,000 in the prior year period. For the first half of twenty twenty three, our net investment income was $48,000,000 compared with $13,000,000 in the first half of twenty twenty two. These increases were primarily due to increases in interest rates during 20222023, where the short duration nature of our portfolio means that we are Reinvesting at higher rates. During the half year of 2023, we invested $1,300,000,000 in fixed maturity available for sale securities with an average investment yield of 5%. We remain conservatively positioned With 98.4 percent of our investment portfolio held in fixed maturity and short term securities, With an average duration of 1.7 years at June 30, 2023, this asset strategy approximately matches our liability duration of 2 years and allows us to prioritize taking risk on the underwriting side of our balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Turning to our balance sheet and financial condition. Our book value per diluted common share was $17.86 At June 30, 2023, an increase of 10% from the adjusted book value per diluted common share following the separation transaction, which was completed on January 3, 2023. The increase was driven by net income and net unrealized gains reported in other comprehensive income. As of June 30, our common shares outstanding were 110,771,897 And on July 3, reflecting our primary capital raise in our IPO, our common shares outstanding were 117,914,754. For both periods, We had 960,870 unvested restricted share units.

Speaker 3

Overall, We are well capitalized against our rating agency and regulatory requirements and are well positioned to continue investing and managing our capital with the goal of generating Strong return on average equity for our investors. Given the current environment, our primary focus is on investing in the business And taking advantage of some of the pricing dynamics we are seeing in the hard market. This is exemplified by our raising of an additional 100,000,000 Longer term, our goal for our capital returns program is to balance ordinary payouts from operating net income and releases of excess capital with the need to take a prudent and efficient approach to capital sufficiency. To conclude, I'm very pleased with our financial performance in the second quarter and through the first half of the year. I will now turn it back to Dan for additional remarks on our outlook for the market.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Alan.

Speaker 2

To echo these points, I'm very pleased with our positive momentum and results for the quarter and overall for the first half year twenty twenty three. We have delivered an annualized ROAE The shareholders of 18.2%, we are confident in our ability to deliver a long term target ROE of 13% to 15% as consistent with our target communicated at IPO. Demand remains strong and we continue to see opportunities amidst the challenging risk environment. We believe our exclusive access to Richard Brindle on the world class underwriting team at the MGU coupled with our deep risk management and capital application expertise Position us well for continued strong performance. Our agile and focused teams are tirelessly working to create value for our clients and shareholders while prudently pursuing the opportunities presented by the hard markets.

Speaker 2

As we progress into the second half of the year, We are in a strong financial position to take a balanced prudent approach in decline capital. We remain well positioned benefits in the prevailing hard market conditions and have a strong pipeline of opportunity across our specialty and bespoke pillars. In Specialty, we expect our property D and F portfolio will continue to offer attractive opportunities to deploy capital Given the market constraints and ability to achieve differentiated pricing in terms and conditions. We bespoke we continue to see significant demand And as a result, we anticipate that our gross premiums written will continue to increase in the Q3 of 2023 compared to the prior year quarter. Going forward, we will remain disciplined against our long term strategic priorities, which are as follows.

Speaker 2

Firstly, to continue to be nimble and proactively manage our portfolio to drive growth with a compelling balance of risk and reward across our 3 underwriting pillars. Secondly, to focus on underwriting profitability through all market cycles I maintain diversified exposure in our business lines. Thirdly, prudently and proactively manage capital to generate superior risk adjusted returns. 4th and finally, continue to operate from a position of financial strength that positions us as a provider of choice of policyholders and allows us to take advantage of large or sudden market pricing dislocations. Our ability to deliver in line with our long term strategy is evidenced in our half year results.

Speaker 2

Our structure has enabled us to leverage our expertise and take advantage of marketplace dynamics. We are underwriting attractive business. We are driving increased profitability. We are generating compelling returns and growing our earnings, all while maintaining prudent capital levels and a strong balance sheet. Now before handing over to Q and A, I'd also like to take a moment to touch on the recent wildfires in Hawaii.

Speaker 2

Our thoughts go out to the families and communities affected by the devastating tragedy. At this time, we're continuing to monitor our exposures closely

Operator

Thank you. With that, our first question comes from Mike Carletti from JMP. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, thanks. Good morning. My first question, I was hoping you could give us a little color on kind of how the property market Developed year to date. And specifically, I'm interested in, you guys have done a good job of kind of staying away from attritional losses Very, very purposely. Has anything changed in that kind of lower attention, more attritional part of the market as losses have continued to come through That might make that more attractive for you going forward?

Speaker 4

Or do you still feel that it's just not the risk reward that you're looking for?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the short answer, Matt, is we don't see having now moved out of that attritional space, We've been back into it under any circumstances. So we're very comfortable about how we position the portfolio. As you know and as we've Many times we've had a lot of concerns around the impact of climate change, claims and social inflation and how that's captured in the model. So, yes, I think we've seen we've been able to move up and out of that attrition.

Speaker 2

We've optimized the portfolio, concentrating on Core clients who outperformed the market. So I don't think we're going to deviate from that strategy regardless of pricing.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. And then just one quick numbers question probably for Alan. You talked a bit about NII and the $27,000,000 in the quarter. Sounds like that's pretty clean just investing at higher rates. Is there anything in that number that is one time in nature that we should take into consideration as we Think about how it builds going forward.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Matt. No, there's nothing it's pretty clean. Again, it's really that we've as you recall, we kept our powder dry last year. We had $1,000,000,000 of cash at year end, and we've been investing that Since about February this year, we were invested $1,300,000,000 with reinvestment rates around 5%.

Speaker 3

So there's nothing unusual in there and we're keeping to our Duration targets, again, we're getting 5% in short duration portfolio. So we're comfortable with it and then there's no We've optimized how we look at our investment strategy and we don't have any plans to change in the near future.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you for the color and congrats on the quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tracy Banghigian from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 5

You reiterated your 13% to 15% ROE target, though now you're on a ROAE basis. You're well north of that in the first half of the year. Is your share between the 15% target long term through cycles? Or do you view your earnings performance in the first half of the year more of an anomaly?

Speaker 3

Yes, Tracy, thanks for that. As we stated in the roadshow and during the IPO process, we do view the 13% to 15% target as a long term return that we can achieve throughout the market. We believe with Our conservative investment strategy, but along with the underwriting strategy we have and our outwards reinsurance purchasing that we can manage through the cycle And achieve those returns with the best in class underwriting team at the Fidelis MGU. So we view that as a Long term target throughout the cycle, especially now that we've pivoted away from the some of the reinsurance segment business that we've previously had and moved more into Specialty and bespoke areas, we believe that target is achievable going forward.

Speaker 1

Okay. You touched on reinsurance.

Speaker 5

To be sure, it feels like your reinsurance premium growth was all rate driven, not exposure driven. And you mentioned that reinsurance Optimization efforts reflect your proprietary view of risk and you have concerns about inadequate pricing, climate change and inflation. But I mean you are growing property DNF, so you're exposed to similar risks like climate change. Why is the primary side a better spot to be?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think, great question, Tracy. I think when we look at there certainly have been improvement on the reinsurance side. When we think about the RPI of $171,000,000 this year, that obviously denotes that there's been some marked improvement year on year. What we've seen In the property D and S market, if compound increases since 2019, it's probably the hardest market Most of us have ever seen in our careers. So the ability to take more of a PIMPIC approach to limit coverage, Peril specific to position yourself in a program excess of certain secondary perils, for instance, It's much more available, and it's just being able to leverage the scale, our line size and our leadership.

Speaker 2

We just think we get more bang for the buck in the property D and F. It's also easier to reinsure. There's a bigger universe of capital That will support that product line as opposed to retrocession, which sits alongside the reinsurance treaty book.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank

Operator

you. Your next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning. First question with regard to the Russia Ukraine reserves, was it just a $2,000,000 change or were there any paid losses in the quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think there's nothing in the first kind of Half of this year that's led us to change how we view our exposure to Russia and Ukraine. What I'll do is ask Johnny Strickland, who is our Chief Atturer at the Insurance Group And he was a former head of reserving at Fidelis when the conflict started. And he'll give you

Speaker 3

a bit more detail on

Speaker 2

our approach and methodology Regarding the reserves and the losses during the conflict.

Speaker 7

Yes. As you recall, our main exposure here is around the aviation portfolio. A year ago, we established a framework reserving for that. So we gave consideration to all the various outcomes This has come as a result of this. You might recall there's 2 different policies at play, 2 different perils and a lot of uncertainty around the amount of aircraft that could They'd be subject to a claim.

Speaker 7

So there's no real change on that over the year. What we do is update New information becomes available. So we tweak the assumptions that beat the framework. But over this quarter, there's been no material change to that at all. And any movement in reserve It's mostly due to FX, and it's earnings coming through on some of the other much smaller exposures.

Speaker 6

Okay, fantastic. Switching gears, if I can, the you talked about the portfolio duration obviously being short and I understand that It's a little shorter than the liability duration. I'm wondering whether that's intentional and or subject to change.

Speaker 3

Yes. So what happened last year, Meyer, if you recall from our earlier discussions during the road show was that During the mid part of 2022, given the rapid increase in interest rates and the Fed's movements in terms of fighting inflation, We decided that any maturities in our portfolio in the latter half of the year, we would not reinvest. We wanted to sit it on the sidelines, so we parked it in cash. So as a result, our duration during the course of 2022 fell from our target of around 2 to like 1.2 at the end of the year. We got more comfortable with where the Fed is headed and with The reinvestment rates in the early part of this year, so we started reinvesting the cash That, we had to sit on the sidelines as long with new maturities during this year.

Speaker 3

So as I mentioned in my opening remarks, We've invested already $1,300,000,000 in 2023 through June, getting a 5% yield. So We are now ramping up back to that duration. Again, it was a conscious decision in 2022 to shorten it, given everything that was going on. But we do plan to work up to our liability duration of 2 as we progress through 2023. We do it on a measured basis.

Speaker 3

We didn't go all in right away. And we do expect that in the near term, we will be back up to that target duration of 2.

Speaker 6

Okay, fantastic. Thank you so much.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Zaremski from BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, great. Good morning. I think you might have touched on this a bit, but on the pricing environment, it was clear that you expect kind of hard market conditions to persist, but Curious if you could put any kind of numbers on kind of the sequential change in pricing. I noticed in your release, There's a measure of RPI, which Fidelity, it says Fidelity uses to assess an approximate index of rate increase A particular set of contracts, wasn't sure if that's something you could share, how the RPI trended.

Speaker 2

Yes. That's it. We can talk about what we as we mentioned earlier, what we Half year by pillar, we saw in our bespoke pillar that we had a rate increase of 118%. And normally that pillar Would be insulated against market cycles by its nature's unique tailored products, but we do have terror Political risk and obviously that's seen dislocation through the conflict. Specialty, we've seen an RPO at half year of 128%.

Speaker 2

And if you think about specialty, certainly marine aviation and the property direct and facultated books Have seen price increases compound year on year for the last 4 or 5 years. And then reinsurance, as I said, was $171,000,000 What I would say, We see no evidence for the market softening. The insurance group, we attend the daily underwriting calls with the underwriting team at the MGU, which gives us real time insight into the rating environment across all our lines of business. And we see those compound increases daily As the supply demand imbalance continues, so we're not going to predict the future, but at the moment, we still see Material increases, we still see a supply demand imbalance. We still see the secular Issues that we've talked about for the last 3 or 4 years, climate change, deterioration in casualty, cost and social inflation And geopolitical conflict as drivers of a hard market.

Speaker 2

So we don't think anything has changed. And of course importantly, There's no new capital of any significant sensor in the market. There have been no start ups, which is very, very unlike previous high market cycles. So we only think capital will return with any scale once the industry can produce stable and consistent returns. So hopefully that gives you a little bit more color.

Speaker 2

So we've seen good rate increases. We have a strong pipeline across all those pillars, But we don't see that imbalance between supply and demand changing at the moment.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. I'll dig in more on the RPI numbers and try to compare them to last quarter's. But my follow ups on the bespoke segment, excellent results. There was again a decent amount of reserve releases.

Speaker 4

Is it worth any color on those releases? And it says the Color says just lower loss experience in our assumptions. Is this a segment where we're going to just have Volatility in releases or is this a segment where you just try to build in more cushion or just any color on that would be great? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Well, I'll ask our Chief Actuary to take that one. Johnny?

Speaker 7

Yes. So PYD needs one where it's needed to Claims, it is adverse because there's a couple of things to call out and we can name them. But the case from the bespoke pillar where it's favorable this year really is just an absence of claims coming through. We've got more item assets tied in that release through the year and nothing's really come against it. In terms of And how to think about PYD in that pillar going forward.

Speaker 7

There's definitely a need to put some Horsesh into the initial loss estimates that last is on the disposed pillar. And that's because they're one off classes that they're one off Contractors don't tend to have a good comparison. They require a specific pricing model. They just need more assumptions to get to that starting point. So I think if you build up something in a more complex way by nature you kind of add up end up adding a little margin on each little bit.

Speaker 7

And we've seen that so far through Fidelis' history. I mean, we're supposed to have consistent favorable PYD for a number of years. We don't make any allowance for it in our numbers or in any forecast we have internally. We just continue to monitor the products Until we feel comfortable enough to start lowering those initial assumptions. I don't see that in the near term future, because it's constantly evolving the

Operator

Your next question comes from Yaron Kinar from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. My first question probably ties back to Tracy's question earlier with ROEs and I'm actually looking more at the combined ratio which was running at Just over 80% for the first half of the year. I think that compares to mid-80s or higher that you were expecting over the long run. So I I guess, again, similar to Tracy's question, is this really driven by a hard market and you'd expect that Ratio go up over time or are there other elements that are allowing you to achieve that 80 or much better than expected or long term expectation combined ratio.

Speaker 3

Yes, Tom. Thanks, Sharon, for the It's a great point. As you know, we focus on combined ratio. That is our key metric along with ROE when we look at our performance internally. You're right on our targets for combined ratio and how that flows through to ROE.

Speaker 3

Obviously, we've had a great quarter and a great half year. We'd love to have this combined ratio going forward. I think anyone would. I think that as we mentioned in the prepared remarks and in our filings is that the absence of large Losses and cats during 2023 has helped our loss ratio, but attritional losses are also running better than expected. We've moved up in programs, especially in the reinsurance pillar, and I think that has helped our attritional loss ratio as well as our cats.

Speaker 3

And our specialty pillar, we again, as Dan mentioned, we can pinprick more the risks we like and Geographically as well as the types of risks were involved. So we would never suggest that The current or half year combined ratio is something that is achievable in the long run. We do believe that the Percentages you gave earlier are probably achievable throughout the cycle though. A lot of it is rate driven as well. Again, it's not just the losses, it is In terms of the premium, the supply demand imbalance is still out there, so we're still getting great rate.

Speaker 3

But we think through the cycle, certainly the percentages on the combined ratio that you mentioned are achievable. And right now, we are certainly right have great tailwinds and Our combined ratio is even better than those great combined ratios.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think working with the MGU that have A track record of our performance and with our capital management throughout the cycle, we're well positioned to produce Peer leading performance on combined ratio and return. So I think that's our job here is to manage the capital through the cycle. But we're certainly having a very strong underwriting team to work with, best in market is really helping that process.

Speaker 8

Thanks. That's very comprehensive answer. And then maybe shifting a little bit to another We saw some headlines, not regarding Fidelis, in the industry with the VISTAU and letters of credit and whatnot. Do you have any exposure whether to Vistu directly or to collateralize reinsurers with LLCs maybe specifically in the bespoke book?

Speaker 2

We did not have a trading relationship with Vistice, so we have no direct exposure. We have over the over our history book, collateralized products. We tried and tested partners. We've been through loss scenarios with them. So we feel confident, but we're always evolving how we analyze, review, check to make sure the process is robust.

Speaker 2

To answer your question, we have no exposure to vesting.

Speaker 8

Okay. And what about letters of credit? Do you have exposure to collateralize reinsurance with Those letters of credit?

Speaker 3

It's Alan. Thanks, Yaron. No, generally, we stick to highly rated Reinsurers and we go through a very thorough security committee process with each and every purchase of reinsurance. There are the odd contracts though where we do have Collateral often in trust, you think of our Herbie Rebonds, there are a few letters of credit, But very immaterial to our overall portfolio. Again, we focus on working with partners that have high ratings, are in the market.

Speaker 3

We work with them long term, so very minimal Exposure to any letters of credit.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Ward from Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks guys. Good morning. In the press release, Mr. Brindle mentioned new opportunities and products and distribution arising from the new structure. Just wondering if you

Speaker 3

could maybe expand on that a bit.

Speaker 10

Yes, I can do that. Mike, it's Ian Houston here. Yes, we have a very solid pipeline of new opportunities. We're just actually getting to the stage of bringing a new firewall sale on board in September in the Aviation segment. So that's just one

Speaker 4

that's happening at the moment.

Speaker 10

And we have a pipeline of several others. So we're always Interesting looking at evolving market conditions and seeing where we can fit in and actively grow the Welcome to the MGU, actually going and diversifying the ZELUS portfolio, Erwin, and we'll continue to do that.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think today, this has obviously built a reputation for innovation through the bespoke pillar. We have a number of contract frustration ventures that we hope to find during the second half of the year. We're also seeing a resurgence of interest in political risk with a strong deal flow there. So I think with our bespoke pillar especially, We're very much on track to meet the goals for the year.

Speaker 2

We had a couple of contracts that moved from Q2 and will hopefully bind in Q3 with substantial premium. So very much on track in terms of innovation, pipeline, both for the space and specialty.

Speaker 3

Awesome. Thanks guys.

Speaker 9

And then maybe longer term question, just curious if you could elaborate on the Plans for potential capital return.

Speaker 3

Yes. Obviously, We just raised capital as part of the IPO. So we raised $100,000,000 of capital and we are We're deploying capital where we think we can get best returns for our insurers or for our stakeholders, including our investors. And so right now, we believe with given the dislocation in the market that deploying it in the insurance and reinsurance space is the best thing to do. We will obviously, as we move forward into our planning process for 2024, we are going to consider our capital plans In terms of dividend strategy and how much capital we're going to deploy in underwriting, how we're going to look at our risk dollars that we allocate to investments.

Speaker 3

We believe we are well capitalized against our rating agency and regulatory requirements And we see no constraints on that from that perspective. In the longer term, our goal is to implement a dividend strategy, which will be based on ordinary payments From operating income and then we will obviously release excess capital as needed and when we see the time is appropriate in the form of Special dividends and buyback share buybacks. While it is still early, we are as I mentioned, we're in the process of looking at 2024 and beyond. We will work with our Fidelis MGU to see where we can deploy capital and where we think it's best on the underwriting cycle. And we'll communicate with you transparently when we start implementing a potential dividend strategy or any other capital returns to shareholders.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes, thanks. Two quick questions

Speaker 11

here for you. The first one, any exposure to the Hawaiian wildfires?

Speaker 3

Yes, thanks.

Speaker 2

As we mentioned earlier, the assessment is ongoing and we're continuing to closely monitor our exposure. But at the moment, Like most people, we're trying to get our arms around the situation. So we're not ready to provide a figure at this time, but we will provide an update when we've got more data at appropriate

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks. And then second question, I'm just curious, what impact, if any, would some of the proposed changes The immediate tax rate have on your tax rate?

Speaker 3

Yes, I'll tackle that one, Brian. Thank you. Obviously, we're a Bermuda company. And we're incorporated here. It's too early to comment really on the tax proposal that Bermuda has.

Speaker 3

We continue to engage with our Trade Group, the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers as well as with the Bermuda government. We are working with our advisors Look at the implications of it and we'll continue to work with them through the proposal process. Obviously, we've worked with our advisors historically as well because Pillar 2 Came out in the UK and Europe a couple of years ago. So we've been in the background, we have been working on our tax strategy. Fidelis is pleased to be in Bermuda.

Speaker 3

We have a productive work environment here. The regulatory Capital and human resource pool here is very strong in Rovita, but we'll continue to evaluate the tax proposal as it develops and we'll communicate with you on any Plans or changes in the future and we'll certainly embed it in our planning process for 2024, 2025 and beyond as we go through. But it's really it's too early to comment on any impacts at this point in time.

Speaker 11

Makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Pablo Singzon from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the combined ratio discussion. MGU fees were higher than we had thought this quarter, But I think there's still below the run rate level, right? So if we start with this quarter as a base, I think there were about 9% of net written premiums.

Speaker 13

Where do

Speaker 12

you think that ratio ultimately settles and what offsets

Speaker 6

and other components of the combined ratio you see

Speaker 12

as the MGFE's fully ramp up?

Speaker 3

Yes, I'll take that one Pablo. Thanks for the question. As you know, we look at combined ratio overall. We have an best in class Underwriting platform with the Federalist MGO and best in class underwriters there. We believe our first half Performance is a clear demonstration of our model with them and our alignment of interest and the performance of the MGU reflects that.

Speaker 3

The NGU expenses of $77,000,000 in the first half are within the range we expected and the agreement is operating as intended. You may see some variation in fees from quarter to quarter given the fee structure. And a reminder on how the fee structure works, there's 2 primary components. There's a ceding commission and then there's a profit commission. And we believe the way they operate, they reflect the alignment of interest between the two parties.

Speaker 3

We had a very good first half underwriting result, 80% combined ratio. And as a result, there is a profit commission payable to the MGU. And hence why the percentage may be a little higher than you would see in a quarter when There are no profit commissions. Ultimately, we believe our combined ratio represents the best measure of performance on this front And our performance here is among the best in the industry. We're comfortable with the fee structure.

Speaker 3

We believe it align interest. And in terms of run rate, it can fluctuate from quarter to quarter and we'll certainly be transparent in the calculations on both how the ceding commission works and how the profit commission works going forward.

Speaker 12

Okay, thanks. And then Dan, I just wanted to follow-up on your Hawaii comments. I'm not looking for specific numbers and I know Hawaii is not a large insurance market, but I think it is viewed by some insurers that are debased prior to their global profit portfolio, Partly because of a unique exposure to hurricane risk. Is there anything unique about your exposure there? For instance, are your attachment points lower than other geographies?

Speaker 12

Are you more exposed to the local companies? And as you think about your net limits, are you Hello? Yes. And as you think about net limits, are you more exposed to commercial property or homeowners in Hawaii? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. As I said, it's just too early. We're still waiting for data We do have we do write reinsurance and Property Direct. So Property Direct will be more commercial based. All I can say is we do buy significant reinsurance to protect that particular territory, but we're still working through the loss number.

Speaker 2

So I don't think it's appropriate to comment any further.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks. I just wanted to follow-up quickly to see if there's any equivalent to the RPI on the loss I don't know if you can comment on generally what loss trends looks like in specialty segment for you?

Speaker 7

Yes. So I'll take that. So we can it's sort of we do consider the loss trend when we're looking at the RPI measure as well. And when we build it into the planning process, we'll consider additional trends that we want to on top. So for example, if you think the inflation environment Changed materially from the point of pricing.

Speaker 7

We'll back to that in as well. So what that means is you can't let the RPI trend Straight now to the loss ratio, you do have to make other announcements, but we'll take those into consideration for the 2024 planning process, which we're going through now.

Speaker 6

Okay, fantastic. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from Tracy Banquigwe from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Thank you. Just real quick, going back to the 13%, 15% ROAE target, I'm going to take a shot at this. Are you comfortable sharing a near term Our OAE target given where we are in the cycle?

Speaker 3

Yes. Again, great question, Tracy. Obviously, we're in a hard market. It's hardest market we've seen in many years. As we head into Q3, which It's a heavy cat season, even though we don't write a lot of reinsurance anymore.

Speaker 3

It's really difficult to say the Short term target. We're really focused on through the cycle, hard market, soft market, whatever, we believe that our target of 13% to 15 As we said during the IPO is achievable. We're not real comfortable in updating or giving guidance on the short term.

Speaker 5

And just really quick back to the discussion on the new Bermuda tax rate proposal. I thought I saw in one of your SEC closure that you have seen the existing exemption until 2,035. Is that the case?

Speaker 3

Our Bermuda operating subsidiary Fidelis Bermuda does indeed have the 2,035 certificate. I think Pretty much everyone in the industry applies for that. Certainly, that is we're going to work with the Bermuda government on this. This is with our trade association and with the government that does exist. We Technically, we are exempt in the Bermuda operating subsidiary until then.

Speaker 3

However, there are other factors why we May decide to not follow through with that and we'll see as this develops, the tax credits we can get, Some other offsets that we're looking at with the government. Again, we love working here. We love the Bermuda base for our company. And so while we technically do have that certificate, I think we'll work very cooperatively with the Bermuda government.

Speaker 1

Okay. I know you

Speaker 5

have asked about the Maui wildfires we're still assessing, but is there anything you could share on Hillary or California quake?

Speaker 3

Yes. So obviously, no, it's too early to call, especially on California. The quake and the storm that went through has obviously happened this week. So there's nothing that we can really point to at this point.

Speaker 5

Some of your London based competitors are establishing U. S. E and S carriers. I believe it's to improve distribution Efficiency. I'm sure you're taking notice.

Speaker 5

Is that a strategy you would also want to replicate?

Speaker 2

No, I think we get great access effectively to that E and S market through our D and F underwriting. We get very strong support in Bermuda from We knew the brokers and U. S. Brokers in London from the London and Continental brokers. So that is our distribution path.

Speaker 2

That is our strategy. Close. So maybe we could go to Leon Cooperman. Maybe take that question.

Speaker 3

Yes, please.

Operator

Your next question is from Lee Cooperman from Omega Family Office. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks. I think you've really addressed most of the questions. I'm just wondering whether you're sandbagging things. Your investment portfolio is well situated and we're having a rising rate environment You're in a very hard market. I'm wondering whether your 13% to 15% normalized ROE is too As the world gets used to more climate change issues, you would seem to me the risk in your business is greater And maybe you should be shooting for higher ROE over cycle.

Speaker 13

And second, since we have a follow-up question, What is your guys' view of your stock price versus your book value versus your normalized earnings?

Speaker 3

Hi, Ali. Thanks. It's Alan. I'll address both questions. Obviously, as a newly Public company and with changes in our portfolio and our pivot from reinsurance to specialty, We have looked hard very hard at our target ROE through the cycle.

Speaker 3

And as I mentioned on earlier calls, it's not just a short term target, it is through the cycle. And I think that we believe that target is achievable with less volatility than some of our peers who may take on a little more risk On the cap front, so yes, the Sanddai income certainly is something that Has been mentioned. We don't think that that's how we think about it in the long term. We think that Hard markets, soft markets, the transition to those markets at 13% to 15% return on equity is an achievable amount and we're sticking to that As we reported during the IPO road show.

Speaker 2

I think, yes, and I think I'd just add to that. 1 or 2 good quarters don't make the year. So I think we're going to be very cautious around that. As we move into Q3, Hopefully, we'll have more evidence of exactly performance and

Speaker 3

we can think about it from there. In terms of our share price, our Shares were issued less than 2 months ago. Obviously, we did a lot of work, a lot of Investor Relations, met with a lot of people, I worked with our sell side analysts, many of whom are on the call today, who are a great bunch following us. Obviously, we would like to increase That price and we think that producing best in class underwriting results, working with the best in class underwriting team at Fidelis MGU, Producing results like we have this quarter, proving that the model works, proving that management It's good at managing capital as well as the investment portfolio. We believe the share price will get where it needs to be and where it should be going forward.

Speaker 13

And who would you list as your comparables? Who are you who in the public arena would be comparable to you?

Speaker 3

We did a lot of extensive outreach on this during our Test the Waters and road show process over the last year and a half. We list our 11 peer group in our prospectus. So it's a mix of specialty writers in the U. S, some Bermuda peers And a few London folks. So it's a broad based.

Speaker 3

We don't believe there are any peers exactly that are identical to us. But again, that's why we picked a broad base of 11 peers that We measure ourselves against in terms of metrics and performance metrics, and they're listed in our prospectus.

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you. We are now out of time. So thank you for all of your questions. Thank you for your patience and attendance today.

Speaker 2

I'd just like to close out with a few comments. So thank you again for joining us today. In closing, we have built on our strong first quarter performance We had an excellent second quarter that demonstrated the value of our market lead positioning, our business model and a structure that allows for Strong execution across all aspects of our strategy alongside the MGU. So looking ahead, we believe we have a unique and diverse portfolio mix We scale across our three business pillars. A differentiated underwriting positions us well to take advantage of the opportunities we see in the markets today as well as to navigate across market cycles.

Speaker 2

And our highly experienced management team brings valuable relationships spanning across multiple disciplines in the Insurance EK System. So we remain focused on deploying capital towards profitable underwriting opportunities, while increasing our scale to drive long term sustainable growth and value for all of our shareholders. So again, thank you very much for your time today and have a great day. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Great Southern Bancorp Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00