NYSE:CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Q2 2023 Earnings Report $28.54 +1.19 (+4.35%) As of 01:20 PM Eastern Earnings HistoryForecast Canadian Natural Resources EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.43Consensus EPS $0.44Beat/MissMissed by -$0.02One Year Ago EPSN/ACanadian Natural Resources Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$5.87 billionExpected Revenue$5.44 billionBeat/MissBeat by +$433.41 millionYoY Revenue GrowthN/ACanadian Natural Resources Announcement DetailsQuarterQ2 2023Date8/3/2023TimeN/AConference Call DateThursday, August 3, 2023Conference Call Time11:00AM ETUpcoming EarningsCanadian Natural Resources' Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Thursday, May 1, 2025Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptPress ReleaseEarnings HistoryCompany ProfilePowered by Canadian Natural Resources Q2 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrAugust 3, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Natural Resources 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, August 3, at 9 am Mountain Time. Operator00:00:20I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Kasdan, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:27Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Natural's Q2 2023 earnings conference call. As always, before we begin, I'd like to remind you of our forward looking statements. And it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and we report our reserves and production before royalties. Additionally, I would suggest to review our comments on non GAAP disclosures in our financial statements. With me this morning are Tim McKay, our President and Mark Sandhorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Speaker 100:00:58Tim will first speak to how Canadian Natural is targeting strong production in the second For 2023, following the completion of planned turnarounds and through our strategic growth plan. Additionally, he will touch on some highlights of our ESG achievements from our 2022 Stewardship Report to stakeholders that was released today, followed by specifics on our safe, reliable and world class operations. Mark will then summarize our financial results, our strong financial position, free cash flow generation and significant returns to shareholders so far this To close, Tim will summarize our call prior to opening up the line for questions. With that, I'll turn it Speaker 200:01:32over to you, Tim. Good morning, everyone. In the Q2, we achieved quarterly production of approximately 1,190,000 BOEs per day, which included natural gas Production at approximately 2.1 Bcf per day with liquids production at approximately 847,000 barrels a day, both reflecting the operational impacts of the wildfires in Western Canada, 3rd party pipeline outage as well as planned turnaround activities in the quarter. Wildfires in Western Canada resulted in some assets being shut in at various times through the months of May and into July. There is no significant damage to our assets and essentially all the production impacted by the wildfires has now been restored and we continue to actively monitor the situation. Speaker 200:02:19We'd like to thank our field personnel, their families, as well as first responders, emergency response agencies for their efforts over the past few months. As a result of strong execution on our thermal growth plan, Q3 2023 average thermal production is now targeted to be approximately 280,000 barrels a day as well as Q4, which represents growth of approximately 30,000 barrels a day from Q4 2022 levels. As well, it's well timed with Western Canadian Select pricing improving both year to date and forecasted to remain strong for the remainder of 2023. Following the completion of the planned turnarounds at both Our world class oil sands mining and upgrading assets. Production in July has been strong with a monthly average of approximately 513,000 barrels a day, capturing SEO pricing that continues to be priced at a premium to WTI. Speaker 200:03:19Our 2023 capital budget has increased by about $200,000,000 compared to the original budget. In particular, the oil sands mining and upgrading has increased by approximately $130,000,000 largely reflecting increased scope and third party costs relating to salinity activities to ensure safe and effective operations. The remaining approximately $70,000,000 remains relates to the North American E and P of Thermal Operations as a result of increased non operated activities and increased workover activities on properties as well as some inflationary pressures. The 20 2023 targeted capital program is approximately $5,400,000,000 or approximately a 4% increase. Canadian Natural continues to be a leader on environmental, social and governance and has made it a priority to work collaboratively with industry and peers and governments to achieve meaningful GHG reductions in support of both Alberta and Canada's climate growth. Speaker 200:04:20Today, our 2022 Stewardship Report to stakeholders was released, which highlights several of our ESG accomplishments, including top tier safety performance, working together with 167 indigenous businesses in which approximately $684,000,000 in contracts were awarded in 2022. Additionally, we are an investment leader in R and D as we increased investment by 30% over 2021 levels with over $587,000,000 invested Technology Development, Deployment, Focusing Our Reducing Our Environmental Footprint, Including Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Productivity Improvements. I'll now do a brief overview of our assets, starting with natural gas. Overall, Q2 2023 natural gas production was approximately 2.1 Bcf, which was comparable to Q2 2022 production. For North American operations, Q2 2023 production was slightly down at approximately 2.07 Bcf versus the Q2 2022 production of 2.09 Bcf, primarily a result of the wildfires, the 3rd party outage impact in the quarter by approximately 100,000,000 cubic feet per day, offset by our company's drill to fill strategy, adding low cost, high value liquid rich natural gas production volumes. Speaker 200:05:48During the quarter, company drilled 21 net wells, of which 6.5 were brought on during the quarter, meeting targeted rates. Our North American Q2 'twenty three gas operating cost was $1.35 an Mcf, which is up 17% compared to Q2 2022 of $1.15 primarily due to higher service and power costs as well as the impact of lower production volumes resulting from the wildfires and the 3rd party outage. Our teams continue to focus on cost control and operational excellence. For North American Light Oil and NGLs, Q2 production was 102,553 barrels a day, down from Q2 2022 of 109,907 barrels a day, primarily as a result of the wildfires and third party outages impacting liquids production by approximately 7,600 barrels a day for the quarter. Q2 2023 operating costs were $18.03 up From Q2 operating costs of $15.19 reflecting the impact of higher service and power costs and lower volumes due to the wildfires and third party outage. Speaker 200:07:00Our international assets in Q2 had oil production of 26,520 barrels a day, which is comparable to Q2 2022 levels of 25,907 barrels a day. Our international assets continue to generate good cash flow and value to the company. Moving to heavy oil. Production was 76,498 barrels a day in Q2 2023, Up 15% from Q2 2022 of 66,521 barrels a day, primarily due to strong drilling results offsetting natural field declines. Operating costs in Q2 We're at $20.07 down 12% as compared to Q2 2022 operating costs of 22.86 primarily due to lower natural gas fuel costs. Speaker 200:07:50During the quarter, the company drilled 24 net heavy oil wells, of which 18 wells were multilaterals across our land base from Bonneville to Lloydminster and to the Clearwater area as well as 6 Lantwells, which all results are on targeted budgeted rates. A key of our long life low decline assets is a world class Pelican Lake pool where the leading edge polymer flood continues to deliver significant value. Q222 2023 production was 47,151 barrels a day, down 8% versus Q222 20 22 average of 51,112 barrels a day, reflecting the natural decline nature of the property as well as the polymer injection rates that were Reinstated in February 2023, the field is targeted to return to its historical decline rate of approximately 5% in the latter half of twenty twenty three. The team continues to focus on mitigating cost pressures with Q2 2023 operating cost of $8.55 per barrel, an increase from our Q2 2022 operating cost of $7.99 per barrel, reflecting higher service and power costs as well as lower production volumes. With our low decline and very low operating costs, Pelican Lake continues to have excellent Thanks. Speaker 200:09:07In our thermal in situ areas, in Q2 2023, we continued to leverage our continuous improvement culture, our expertise to deliver Effective and Efficient Operations. Q222 production was 238,941 barrels a day, down from Q2222022 production of 249,938 barrels a day as forecasted as a result of the planned turnaround at Primrose. Q2 operating costs were $14.59 per barrel, down approximately $4 when compared to Q2 2022 operating costs of $18.93 largely a result of lower natural gas costs. I'll now update our thermal growth plans. At Primrose, the company is targeting to grow production by approximately 25,000 barrels a day, primarily from Two new CCS pads CSS pads drilled in 2022. Speaker 200:10:02The production from these new pads, which targets strong quarterly production of approximately 100,000 barrels a day for this area in the 3rd Q4. At Kirby, the company is targeting to grow production by approximately 15,000 barrels a day from Q4 2022 levels to approximately 65,000 barrels a day in Q4 2023 as the company progressed the development of the 4 SAG deep pads in 2023. The 3 remaining pads are targeted to ramp up to full production capacity over the 1st 9 months of 2024 at a pace of 1 pad per quarter. At Jackfish, production has been very strong, averaging approximately 113,000 barrels a day with minimum growth capitals since acquiring the asset, representing its long life low decline nature. Production from these new pads are targeted to ramp up to their full production capacities in Q3 2024 and Q4 of 2024, respectively, supporting continued high utilization rates at Thermal in situ production is targeted to increase in the second half of twenty twenty three, averaging approximately 280,000 barrels a day. Speaker 200:11:14And with the stripped WCS differentials, it will add incremental cash flow. In the company's world class oil sands mining and upgrade assets, We had Q2 production averaging 355,246 barrels a day of SCO. As previously announced, The planned turnaround activities at the non operated Scotford Upgrader and Horizon as well as Horizon were completed with Q2 operating costs that were $31.28 per barrel. Following the completion of the planned turnarounds at our world class mining and asset upgrading, Production in July has been very strong with a monthly average of approximately 513,000 barrels a day, capturing strong SEO pricing. At Horizon, during the planned turnaround and as part of the reliability enhancement project, the company completed 2 tie in of 2 furnaces. Speaker 200:12:07In August, both furnaces are targeted to be operational, increasing SCO production capacity by approximately 5,000 barrels a day, which is included in our company's 2023 production guidance. The reliability enhancement project is targeted 14,000 barrels a day of additional SCO capacity in 2025 as a result of shifting the maintenance schedule from once per year to once every 2 years, reducing downtime for maintenance activities and increasing overall reliability at Horizon. I'll now turn it over to Mark for a financial review. Speaker 300:12:43Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. In the Q2 of 2023, We generated strong financial results with adjusted funds flow of $2,700,000,000 and adjusted net earnings from operations of 1,300,000,000 while major turnaround activity was completed in the quarter. Balance allocation to our 4 pillars continues, including significant returns to shareholders in the quarter And so far this year. Up to and including August 2, 2023, year to date returns to shareholders totaled $4,300,000,000 including $2,900,000,000 in dividends and $1,400,000,000 in share repurchases. Our commitment to increasing shareholder returns is evident in our sustainable and growing quarterly dividend, which was increased to $0.90 per share from $0.85 per share earlier this year, marking 2023 as The 23rd consecutive year of dividend increases. Speaker 300:13:33Subsequent to quarter end, the Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.90 per share payable on October 5, 2023. As planned maintenance activities were completed in Q2, we are targeting strong production volumes and free cash flow for the second half of twenty twenty three as we move towards our $10,000,000,000 net debt level, where 100% of free cash flow will be allocated to shareholders as defined in our policy. And of note, the 2nd quarter marked the 6 year anniversary since the acquisition of 70% of the AOSP assets. As part of the acquisition, we issued 97,600,000 shares. Shareholder terms through share repurchases since closing has been significant, resulting in a reduction of approximately 123,000,000 shares or 10 percent to less than 1,100,000,000 shares outstanding as at June 30, 2023, Fewer shares outstanding than before the acquisition. Speaker 300:14:25Additionally, total corporate production has grown by roughly 50% or 442,000 BOEs a day when comparing Q1 2017 to Q1 2023. And since closing the acquisition, we have reduced debt by over $11,000,000,000 or about 50%, significantly reducing our overall risk profile. This demonstrates our focus on safe, reliable production, A strong financial position and our culture of continuous improvement. Finally, we're in a very strong financial position with debt to EBITDA at point 7 times at the end of the quarter and we continue to maintain strong liquidity. Including revolving bank facilities, cash and short term investments, Liquidity at the end of Q2 was approximately $5,600,000,000 When you combine our leading financial results with our top tier reserves and asset base, This provides us with competitive advantages in terms of capital efficiency, flexibility and sustainability, all of which drive material free cash flow generation and strong returns on capital. Speaker 300:15:27With that, I'll turn it over to you, Tim, for some final comments. Speaker 200:15:30Thanks, Mark. Canadian Natural's advantage is our ability to effectively allocate cash flow to our 4 pillars. We have a well balanced diverse large asset base, With a significant portion of long life, slow decline assets, we require less capital to maintain volumes. We continue to allocate cash flow to our 4 pillars disciplined manner to maximize value for our shareholders, which is all driven by effective capital allocation, Effective and efficient operations and our teams who deliver top tier results. We have robust, sustainable free cash flow And through our free cash flow allocation policy, returns to shareholders are significant, which includes our growing dividend, which has increased for 23 consecutive years. Speaker 200:16:15In summary, we continue to focus on safe, reliable operations, enhancing our top tier operations, And we will continue to drive our environmental performance. We are in a very strong position and being nimble enhances our capacity to create value for our shareholders. We continue to apply that same drive to ESG, Environmental, social and governance, a significant factor in our long term sustainability as we move forward to lower our carbon emissions with our first target to reduce absolute scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 40% by 2,035 from our 2020 baseline. On our journey to achieve our goal of net 0 GHG in the oil sands by 2,050. Canadian Natural is delivering top tier free cash flow generation, which is unique, sustainable, robust and clearly demonstrates our ability to both economically grow the business, Operator00:17:26Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. First question comes from Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Speaker 400:17:56Yes, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the rundown, guys. Couple of questions for me. Maybe to start, Mark, maybe just on the net debt side. Speaker 400:18:06Have you got a reasonable shot at getting $10,000,000,000 by the end of this year based upon what you see in the production, but also the commodity price landscape? Speaker 300:18:17Yes. Greg, thanks for the question. It's it is very dependent on those commodity prices. So if you do see some strength in the commodity prices towards the end of the year, there is a possibility we could get there at the end. I think with recent strip pricing, I forecast it to be still very early 2024. Speaker 300:18:33Okay. Speaker 400:18:33Okay. Conservative as we like. And then maybe just shifting gears Over to Tim, I wanted to dig into the just the 513,000 that you put up at Horizon AOSP, but maybe a little bit more in terms of Reminding us what the capacity is now across the combined asset and then perhaps How we should be thinking about operating costs on a go forward basis? Speaker 200:19:02Yes. Great. Good questions here. So I mean with Horizon and SOP, obviously, the teams continue to work on opportunities to Increased reliability and obviously deliver safe and effective operations there. So with that During the turnaround, there was increased scope in terms of work that we felt needed to be done on the upgrader. Speaker 200:19:30And I'm actually very proud of our teams in terms of the effort, the way they approached it and dealt with All the work that needs to be done with that asset. So we've seen a little bit of inflationary pressures. But in general, I think we're on the right track in terms of making sure that those assets run reliably and consistently Each and every day. In terms of capacities, Horizon on a capacity day It's pretty well kind of in that $280,000,000 maybe a little bit more here. We'll see what the new furnaces that they are forecasted or targeted to come on in the next couple of weeks. Speaker 200:20:13So that will be a great test for us in terms of seeing that increase. And ASOP, obviously, we've been creeping it up over time and really it's been doing a little bit better than its Capacity here on flight. So I think it's really early here. The numbers look really strong here for July. I'd like to get through July and into August more and we'll see if we can keep that sustained rate. Speaker 200:20:43It's really, really positive. Both sides have Done a really good job here coming out of the turnarounds. Speaker 400:20:50Okay. Thanks to you both. Operator00:20:55Thank you. The next question comes from Manav Gupta at UBS. Please go ahead. Speaker 500:21:02Guys, just wanted to get some clarifications. You generally have a very informed view of apportionments, differentials. And if you could also help us understand from the perspective of the TMX startup, how you're thinking about it? Speaker 200:21:18Sure. As far as apportionment, we don't see it being an issue. From all indications, TMX is will be making a call for a line fill here in the fall here August, September, October. So from that aspect, I look at it as a very positive and very constructive for Canada's oil WCS, because if you can appreciate, one, you'll have the line fill and I believe it's up around 5,000,000 barrels of line fill for that line. And then on top of it, the heavy oil Capacity, I believe is a little over 500,000 barrels a day. Speaker 200:22:04So it's going to take 500,000 barrels a day of heavy to a different market. So to me, I find that the WCS piece will be very constructive here. Obviously, Typically, historically, the winter months, it does widen a bit. But I mean, let's face it, It's 20%. That is still very strong on a relative basis. Speaker 500:22:30Perfect. And a quick follow-up here is you are making investments to Grow volumes, both at oil sands as well as in situ projects, expected start up somewhere around 25. Help us understand how those development projects are growing at this stage? Speaker 200:22:48Well, Really, if you're talking about the thermal piece and the reliability pieces, those are really the only pieces that we've got going into Next year right now, we have we'll be starting the budget process here in the fall to for other areas and decide If we do more additions pad additions at Primrose or at Kirby's. So it's a little early on the forecasting into 24, 25. Speaker 500:23:17Thank you so much. Operator00:23:22Thank you. Next question comes from Dennis Fong at CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead. Speaker 600:23:28Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I'll start with the first one as maybe a bit of a follow-up to Manav's question. You've done a really good job in terms of ramping the production at Wolf Lake and Primrose To 90,000 barrels a day plus for this year, what's your ability to kind of further optimize that capacity? I believe at your Investor Day you outlined facility capacity towards 140,000 barrel a day level. It seems like that's really low hanging fruit when you think about Again, driving OpEx and so forth. Speaker 600:24:00So just any kind of commentary around how you evaluate that and what the opportunity is there? Speaker 200:24:07Yes. It's a very good question there, Dennis. And obviously, the drill to fill opportunities are obviously We rank quite highly. So the team is progressing additional pads at Primrose Kirby where we could do those So incremental volumes going into next year. Usual cycle time is about a year. Speaker 200:24:31So once we start sanctioning those pads, obviously, They're not cheap. They're roughly be almost $170,000,000 per pad. So it's a pretty big project And they take about a year cycle time. So as we go into our budget process there, I can say that they are highly ranked as well as some of the SAGD opportunities and looking forward here into next year. So to your point, They are low hanging fruit in terms of adding volumes. Speaker 600:25:05Great. Great. Thanks for that context. And then the second question I have, Switching more over to the oil sands side. And you mentioned it briefly, and I guess your answer there to Greg's question, which is related To this kind of go around, we saw a little bit of scope change as well as I guess maybe incremental sound work. Speaker 600:25:24As you think about stretching the time Between periods of planned maintenance, how are you managing the potential for additional found work or changes in scope As you kind of run through. Speaker 200:25:37Yes, that's a very good question. And it Really, the key is having a very good preventative maintenance program and asset integrity program. And so I'm actually very proud of our team and the way we're approaching this. What they do is if they find any kind of concern Whether it's piping or equipment, they basically risk assess it. They go through a very detailed process in terms of Will that piece of equipment make it until the next turnaround? Speaker 200:26:12Or is it something that has to be dealt with today? And I look at this last turnaround at Horizon. I mean at both ASOP and Horizon we saw some inflationary costs. But At Horizon, we have, like I said, a very detailed program. I'm very proud of the way they approached it because they saw potential issues that would Potentially decrease our reliability or decrease our utilization there. Speaker 200:26:39And as you know, any downtime at Something like Horizon is very costly. So they looked at it. They did that work during the turnaround Very effectively. So to me, the key in the oil sands is reliability. If If you can produce reliably every day, you can make very good returns. Speaker 200:27:05Obviously, if you Missed something either through your PM program or your Integrity program, it can be very costly in terms of unplanned downtime. So I look at it. It's setting us up well for that 2 year run by them doing thorough reviews Of our piping, of our equipment to make sure it can run reliably. Speaker 600:27:29Great, great. Thanks. Appreciate you answering those questions. I'll turn it back. Speaker 100:27:34Thank you. Operator00:27:38Thank you. The next question comes from Manel Khalschoff at TD Securities. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:27:44Thanks and good morning everyone. I'll start with a question on the acceleration of the timeline for ramp up of new Thermal capacity, you talked about strong execution, but was there anything that really stood out as driving that better than expected outcome? And I guess I'm asking that in the context of what still looks to be a fairly challenging operating environment? Speaker 200:28:08Yes. All the way along, It's a very good question because really we've always said that the key to delivering Good cost control is having very tight execution plan and then sticking to the plan. And The one thing with thermal is it's very condensed. So we have it's in all proximal areas. And it's very much the same pad ads by having a very structured pad ad design. Speaker 200:28:45You can do it cost effectively. So what we're seeing is off the first pad, it took more time. And then as we keep doing these pad adds, The teams are learning on ways to do the construction better and more cost effectively and timely. So it's just by doing things one after another, you can continually improve and that's kind of been our mantra all the way along is that By keeping things simple, keeping them effective, you can continuously improve those operations. Speaker 700:29:21Terrific. And then moving on to natural gas drilling activity, I was just looking at the numbers year on year. It looks like you're effectively Tracking right in line with last year in terms of net wells drilled. What does the rest of the year look like in terms of planned activity? I know you typically address this in the presentation, But I don't see the update on the site yet, so I'm going to ask that question. Speaker 700:29:43And then how many rigs are currently active relative to the beginning of the year to the extent that you can comment on that? Speaker 200:29:50Sure. Well, today we have 8 rigs. If you go back Q1, I said we'd probably be in the 9 to 10 rigs. So a little less today, but to me that's just a timing issue per se. But My feeling is and we've reduced the natural gas count. Speaker 200:30:14I see us continuing with that. And to me, the costs on the natural gas side for drilling completions, the fracking, We're in my mind pressured here in the Q1 and then to that other side Pricing has come off. So I think those will have opportunities maybe later in the year and we'll see what How it looks here as we go into the more in towards the Q4. But I don't feel any pressure to accelerate Natural gas volumes in market here today. Speaker 700:30:55Thanks, Tim. I'll turn it back. Speaker 100:30:58Thank you. Operator00:31:01Thank you. Next question comes from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Speaker 800:31:08Yes. Good morning, Sam and team. Just two quick questions here. First on managing inflationary forces, can you talk about Where you're seeing areas of pressure and areas of relief and then put that in the context of the $200,000,000 Budget pump this year, which you talked a little bit in the prepared remarks about? Speaker 200:31:31Yes. The big ones here that I see today are labor and labor continues to be pressured. With that, I would say the supply side and equipment deliveries are pressured. And what we're doing today is we have to Order, shall we say, further ahead for activities in the future. And so that supply piece is difficult. Speaker 200:31:56The transportation piece was inflated as well in terms of trying to get the stuff out of the ports of Vancouver and that. We're seeing what I would call little incremental pieces, obviously food costs, power costs have gone up. To me, all that has to kind of work through your system because our manufacturers of vessels or equipment Do you see the increased power costs? They do increase labor costs. And you can't today offset it 1 to On the other side, as things start to level out, you will find again efficiencies. Speaker 200:32:37But In the short term, those cost pressures roll through the whole system. So To me, it's just managing what you can going forward. Speaker 800:32:53Yes. Thanks, Tim. And then the follow-up is just on SEO. You talked a little bit with Manav about the WCS outlook, But SEO continues to trade very firm at a premium relative to WTI. I would imagine part of it is just the higher distillate cut and diesel margins are strong. Speaker 800:33:10But Any perspective you can provide on how you think about the outlook versus crude pricing would be great too. Speaker 200:33:16Yes. I think it's very constructive as well. And to your point that the high distillate To cut, it can it will trade at a premium. And again, I just look at it, the whole Oil side in my mind looks very constructive here for Western Canada because incremental capacities even on the light oil side You get another $300,000 or so of incremental egress. People have to actually Look at where they go with their volumes in terms of trying to get the best price for it. Speaker 200:33:55So I just look at both WCS and SEO as being very constructive here going into the fall. Speaker 800:34:04Thank you, sir. Operator00:34:09Thank you. Next question from Doug Leggate at Bank of America. Please go ahead. Speaker 900:34:21Hey, guys. This is actually Clay on for Doug. So thanks for taking the question here. I've only got one because a lot of things have already been touched, But this is also a follow-up on TMX. I understand that you guys are a contracted shipper and are involved in the tariff negotiation. Speaker 900:34:36Just wondering if you can walk through the resolution timeline and also maybe give us an idea of the cash flows and how that would trend during line fill. Because the way I'm thinking about it is you'll obviously be placing barrels into the system, but it's not clear to me that the cash will be realized on a real time basis or there will be some lag? Speaker 300:34:57Yes. Well, on the second part of that question, There's likely to be some lag on the cash flows realized. That's right, because you'll be using some barrels for fill. Speaker 200:35:09And then on the first question with the TMX, so The way the process works is the decision maker is the CER, so it's a Canadian Energy Regulator. And so what they did is, I think yesterday they came out with questions not only for TMX, but a process here in terms of Supplying information to the Canadian Energy Regulator. And so with that, to me, it'll just Under the process that they define and if I would say it's going to take a few months maybe. But really it's out of our hands in terms of the actual timing. To me, the CER does what it's supposed to do and Take a firm look at both sides, the information each side provides and then makes the decision in appropriate time. Speaker 200:36:09From that aspect, to me, it's just normal business in terms of how we have to work under the Canadian Energy Regulators' rules. Speaker 900:36:19I appreciate that. And just to be clear, the tariff will be defined before line fill starts. Is that right? Speaker 200:36:27We don't know. I can't say that definitively because the line fill could start here maybe in August September. We don't I have control of that either. So really that would be a better question maybe for TMX on when they expect to see the line fill. Speaker 900:36:46Got it. I appreciate the answers guys. Thank you. Speaker 200:36:49Okay. Thank you. Operator00:36:53Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions and you may proceed. Speaker 100:36:57Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. Speaker 300:37:01If you Speaker 100:37:01have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thanks and have a great day. Operator00:37:08Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallCanadian Natural Resources Q2 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsPress Release Canadian Natural Resources Earnings HeadlinesCanadian Natural Resources Limited Announces Amendment to Stock Option Plan | CNQ Stock NewsApril 15 at 6:44 PM | gurufocus.comIs Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) the Best Oil Stock to Invest in According to Billionaires?April 15 at 3:16 PM | insidermonkey.comTrump’s treachery Trump’s Final Reset Inside the shocking plot to re-engineer America’s financial system…and why you need to move your money now.April 16, 2025 | Porter & Company (Ad)Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Energy Stocks: Conocophillips (COP), Paladin Energy Ltd (OtherPALAF) and Canadian Natural (CNQ)April 14 at 8:28 PM | markets.businessinsider.comCanadian Natural price target lowered to C$50 from C$56 at ScotiabankApril 11, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.com2 Outrageously Undervalued High-Yield Stocks I'm Buying NowApril 11, 2025 | seekingalpha.comSee More Canadian Natural Resources Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Canadian Natural Resources? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Canadian Natural Resources and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Canadian Natural ResourcesCanadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) acquires, explores for, develops, produces, markets, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company offers light and medium crude oil, primary heavy crude oil, Pelican Lake heavy crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), and synthetic crude oil (SCO). The company's midstream assets include two pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. It operates primarily in Western Canada; the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea; and Offshore Africa. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.View Canadian Natural Resources ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles Tesla Stock Eyes Breakout With Earnings on DeckJohnson & Johnson Earnings Were More Good Than Bad—Time to Buy? Why Analysts Boosted United Airlines Stock Ahead of EarningsLamb Weston Stock Rises, Earnings Provide Calm Amidst ChaosIntuitive Machines Gains After Earnings Beat, NASA Missions AheadCintas Delivers Earnings Beat, Signals More Growth AheadNike Stock Dips on Earnings: Analysts Weigh in on What’s Next Upcoming Earnings Netflix (4/17/2025)American Express (4/17/2025)Blackstone (4/17/2025)Infosys (4/17/2025)Marsh & McLennan Companies (4/17/2025)Charles Schwab (4/17/2025)Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (4/17/2025)UnitedHealth Group (4/17/2025)HDFC Bank (4/18/2025)Progressive (4/18/2025) Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access for Free Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools. Start Your 30-Day Trial MarketBeat All Access Features Best-in-Class Portfolio Monitoring Get personalized stock ideas. Compare portfolio to indices. Check stock news, ratings, SEC filings, and more. Stock Ideas and Recommendations See daily stock ideas from top analysts. Receive short-term trading ideas from MarketBeat. Identify trending stocks on social media. Advanced Stock Screeners and Research Tools Use our seven stock screeners to find suitable stocks. Stay informed with MarketBeat's real-time news. Export data to Excel for personal analysis. Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. Sign In Create Account Your Email Address: Email Address Required Your Password: Password Required Log In or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google Forgot your password? Your Email Address: Please enter your email address. Please enter a valid email address Choose a Password: Please enter your password. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Create My Account (Free) or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google By creating a free account, you agree to our terms of service. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Natural Resources 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, August 3, at 9 am Mountain Time. Operator00:00:20I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Kasdan, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:27Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Natural's Q2 2023 earnings conference call. As always, before we begin, I'd like to remind you of our forward looking statements. And it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and we report our reserves and production before royalties. Additionally, I would suggest to review our comments on non GAAP disclosures in our financial statements. With me this morning are Tim McKay, our President and Mark Sandhorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Speaker 100:00:58Tim will first speak to how Canadian Natural is targeting strong production in the second For 2023, following the completion of planned turnarounds and through our strategic growth plan. Additionally, he will touch on some highlights of our ESG achievements from our 2022 Stewardship Report to stakeholders that was released today, followed by specifics on our safe, reliable and world class operations. Mark will then summarize our financial results, our strong financial position, free cash flow generation and significant returns to shareholders so far this To close, Tim will summarize our call prior to opening up the line for questions. With that, I'll turn it Speaker 200:01:32over to you, Tim. Good morning, everyone. In the Q2, we achieved quarterly production of approximately 1,190,000 BOEs per day, which included natural gas Production at approximately 2.1 Bcf per day with liquids production at approximately 847,000 barrels a day, both reflecting the operational impacts of the wildfires in Western Canada, 3rd party pipeline outage as well as planned turnaround activities in the quarter. Wildfires in Western Canada resulted in some assets being shut in at various times through the months of May and into July. There is no significant damage to our assets and essentially all the production impacted by the wildfires has now been restored and we continue to actively monitor the situation. Speaker 200:02:19We'd like to thank our field personnel, their families, as well as first responders, emergency response agencies for their efforts over the past few months. As a result of strong execution on our thermal growth plan, Q3 2023 average thermal production is now targeted to be approximately 280,000 barrels a day as well as Q4, which represents growth of approximately 30,000 barrels a day from Q4 2022 levels. As well, it's well timed with Western Canadian Select pricing improving both year to date and forecasted to remain strong for the remainder of 2023. Following the completion of the planned turnarounds at both Our world class oil sands mining and upgrading assets. Production in July has been strong with a monthly average of approximately 513,000 barrels a day, capturing SEO pricing that continues to be priced at a premium to WTI. Speaker 200:03:19Our 2023 capital budget has increased by about $200,000,000 compared to the original budget. In particular, the oil sands mining and upgrading has increased by approximately $130,000,000 largely reflecting increased scope and third party costs relating to salinity activities to ensure safe and effective operations. The remaining approximately $70,000,000 remains relates to the North American E and P of Thermal Operations as a result of increased non operated activities and increased workover activities on properties as well as some inflationary pressures. The 20 2023 targeted capital program is approximately $5,400,000,000 or approximately a 4% increase. Canadian Natural continues to be a leader on environmental, social and governance and has made it a priority to work collaboratively with industry and peers and governments to achieve meaningful GHG reductions in support of both Alberta and Canada's climate growth. Speaker 200:04:20Today, our 2022 Stewardship Report to stakeholders was released, which highlights several of our ESG accomplishments, including top tier safety performance, working together with 167 indigenous businesses in which approximately $684,000,000 in contracts were awarded in 2022. Additionally, we are an investment leader in R and D as we increased investment by 30% over 2021 levels with over $587,000,000 invested Technology Development, Deployment, Focusing Our Reducing Our Environmental Footprint, Including Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Productivity Improvements. I'll now do a brief overview of our assets, starting with natural gas. Overall, Q2 2023 natural gas production was approximately 2.1 Bcf, which was comparable to Q2 2022 production. For North American operations, Q2 2023 production was slightly down at approximately 2.07 Bcf versus the Q2 2022 production of 2.09 Bcf, primarily a result of the wildfires, the 3rd party outage impact in the quarter by approximately 100,000,000 cubic feet per day, offset by our company's drill to fill strategy, adding low cost, high value liquid rich natural gas production volumes. Speaker 200:05:48During the quarter, company drilled 21 net wells, of which 6.5 were brought on during the quarter, meeting targeted rates. Our North American Q2 'twenty three gas operating cost was $1.35 an Mcf, which is up 17% compared to Q2 2022 of $1.15 primarily due to higher service and power costs as well as the impact of lower production volumes resulting from the wildfires and the 3rd party outage. Our teams continue to focus on cost control and operational excellence. For North American Light Oil and NGLs, Q2 production was 102,553 barrels a day, down from Q2 2022 of 109,907 barrels a day, primarily as a result of the wildfires and third party outages impacting liquids production by approximately 7,600 barrels a day for the quarter. Q2 2023 operating costs were $18.03 up From Q2 operating costs of $15.19 reflecting the impact of higher service and power costs and lower volumes due to the wildfires and third party outage. Speaker 200:07:00Our international assets in Q2 had oil production of 26,520 barrels a day, which is comparable to Q2 2022 levels of 25,907 barrels a day. Our international assets continue to generate good cash flow and value to the company. Moving to heavy oil. Production was 76,498 barrels a day in Q2 2023, Up 15% from Q2 2022 of 66,521 barrels a day, primarily due to strong drilling results offsetting natural field declines. Operating costs in Q2 We're at $20.07 down 12% as compared to Q2 2022 operating costs of 22.86 primarily due to lower natural gas fuel costs. Speaker 200:07:50During the quarter, the company drilled 24 net heavy oil wells, of which 18 wells were multilaterals across our land base from Bonneville to Lloydminster and to the Clearwater area as well as 6 Lantwells, which all results are on targeted budgeted rates. A key of our long life low decline assets is a world class Pelican Lake pool where the leading edge polymer flood continues to deliver significant value. Q222 2023 production was 47,151 barrels a day, down 8% versus Q222 20 22 average of 51,112 barrels a day, reflecting the natural decline nature of the property as well as the polymer injection rates that were Reinstated in February 2023, the field is targeted to return to its historical decline rate of approximately 5% in the latter half of twenty twenty three. The team continues to focus on mitigating cost pressures with Q2 2023 operating cost of $8.55 per barrel, an increase from our Q2 2022 operating cost of $7.99 per barrel, reflecting higher service and power costs as well as lower production volumes. With our low decline and very low operating costs, Pelican Lake continues to have excellent Thanks. Speaker 200:09:07In our thermal in situ areas, in Q2 2023, we continued to leverage our continuous improvement culture, our expertise to deliver Effective and Efficient Operations. Q222 production was 238,941 barrels a day, down from Q2222022 production of 249,938 barrels a day as forecasted as a result of the planned turnaround at Primrose. Q2 operating costs were $14.59 per barrel, down approximately $4 when compared to Q2 2022 operating costs of $18.93 largely a result of lower natural gas costs. I'll now update our thermal growth plans. At Primrose, the company is targeting to grow production by approximately 25,000 barrels a day, primarily from Two new CCS pads CSS pads drilled in 2022. Speaker 200:10:02The production from these new pads, which targets strong quarterly production of approximately 100,000 barrels a day for this area in the 3rd Q4. At Kirby, the company is targeting to grow production by approximately 15,000 barrels a day from Q4 2022 levels to approximately 65,000 barrels a day in Q4 2023 as the company progressed the development of the 4 SAG deep pads in 2023. The 3 remaining pads are targeted to ramp up to full production capacity over the 1st 9 months of 2024 at a pace of 1 pad per quarter. At Jackfish, production has been very strong, averaging approximately 113,000 barrels a day with minimum growth capitals since acquiring the asset, representing its long life low decline nature. Production from these new pads are targeted to ramp up to their full production capacities in Q3 2024 and Q4 of 2024, respectively, supporting continued high utilization rates at Thermal in situ production is targeted to increase in the second half of twenty twenty three, averaging approximately 280,000 barrels a day. Speaker 200:11:14And with the stripped WCS differentials, it will add incremental cash flow. In the company's world class oil sands mining and upgrade assets, We had Q2 production averaging 355,246 barrels a day of SCO. As previously announced, The planned turnaround activities at the non operated Scotford Upgrader and Horizon as well as Horizon were completed with Q2 operating costs that were $31.28 per barrel. Following the completion of the planned turnarounds at our world class mining and asset upgrading, Production in July has been very strong with a monthly average of approximately 513,000 barrels a day, capturing strong SEO pricing. At Horizon, during the planned turnaround and as part of the reliability enhancement project, the company completed 2 tie in of 2 furnaces. Speaker 200:12:07In August, both furnaces are targeted to be operational, increasing SCO production capacity by approximately 5,000 barrels a day, which is included in our company's 2023 production guidance. The reliability enhancement project is targeted 14,000 barrels a day of additional SCO capacity in 2025 as a result of shifting the maintenance schedule from once per year to once every 2 years, reducing downtime for maintenance activities and increasing overall reliability at Horizon. I'll now turn it over to Mark for a financial review. Speaker 300:12:43Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. In the Q2 of 2023, We generated strong financial results with adjusted funds flow of $2,700,000,000 and adjusted net earnings from operations of 1,300,000,000 while major turnaround activity was completed in the quarter. Balance allocation to our 4 pillars continues, including significant returns to shareholders in the quarter And so far this year. Up to and including August 2, 2023, year to date returns to shareholders totaled $4,300,000,000 including $2,900,000,000 in dividends and $1,400,000,000 in share repurchases. Our commitment to increasing shareholder returns is evident in our sustainable and growing quarterly dividend, which was increased to $0.90 per share from $0.85 per share earlier this year, marking 2023 as The 23rd consecutive year of dividend increases. Speaker 300:13:33Subsequent to quarter end, the Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.90 per share payable on October 5, 2023. As planned maintenance activities were completed in Q2, we are targeting strong production volumes and free cash flow for the second half of twenty twenty three as we move towards our $10,000,000,000 net debt level, where 100% of free cash flow will be allocated to shareholders as defined in our policy. And of note, the 2nd quarter marked the 6 year anniversary since the acquisition of 70% of the AOSP assets. As part of the acquisition, we issued 97,600,000 shares. Shareholder terms through share repurchases since closing has been significant, resulting in a reduction of approximately 123,000,000 shares or 10 percent to less than 1,100,000,000 shares outstanding as at June 30, 2023, Fewer shares outstanding than before the acquisition. Speaker 300:14:25Additionally, total corporate production has grown by roughly 50% or 442,000 BOEs a day when comparing Q1 2017 to Q1 2023. And since closing the acquisition, we have reduced debt by over $11,000,000,000 or about 50%, significantly reducing our overall risk profile. This demonstrates our focus on safe, reliable production, A strong financial position and our culture of continuous improvement. Finally, we're in a very strong financial position with debt to EBITDA at point 7 times at the end of the quarter and we continue to maintain strong liquidity. Including revolving bank facilities, cash and short term investments, Liquidity at the end of Q2 was approximately $5,600,000,000 When you combine our leading financial results with our top tier reserves and asset base, This provides us with competitive advantages in terms of capital efficiency, flexibility and sustainability, all of which drive material free cash flow generation and strong returns on capital. Speaker 300:15:27With that, I'll turn it over to you, Tim, for some final comments. Speaker 200:15:30Thanks, Mark. Canadian Natural's advantage is our ability to effectively allocate cash flow to our 4 pillars. We have a well balanced diverse large asset base, With a significant portion of long life, slow decline assets, we require less capital to maintain volumes. We continue to allocate cash flow to our 4 pillars disciplined manner to maximize value for our shareholders, which is all driven by effective capital allocation, Effective and efficient operations and our teams who deliver top tier results. We have robust, sustainable free cash flow And through our free cash flow allocation policy, returns to shareholders are significant, which includes our growing dividend, which has increased for 23 consecutive years. Speaker 200:16:15In summary, we continue to focus on safe, reliable operations, enhancing our top tier operations, And we will continue to drive our environmental performance. We are in a very strong position and being nimble enhances our capacity to create value for our shareholders. We continue to apply that same drive to ESG, Environmental, social and governance, a significant factor in our long term sustainability as we move forward to lower our carbon emissions with our first target to reduce absolute scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 40% by 2,035 from our 2020 baseline. On our journey to achieve our goal of net 0 GHG in the oil sands by 2,050. Canadian Natural is delivering top tier free cash flow generation, which is unique, sustainable, robust and clearly demonstrates our ability to both economically grow the business, Operator00:17:26Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. First question comes from Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Speaker 400:17:56Yes, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the rundown, guys. Couple of questions for me. Maybe to start, Mark, maybe just on the net debt side. Speaker 400:18:06Have you got a reasonable shot at getting $10,000,000,000 by the end of this year based upon what you see in the production, but also the commodity price landscape? Speaker 300:18:17Yes. Greg, thanks for the question. It's it is very dependent on those commodity prices. So if you do see some strength in the commodity prices towards the end of the year, there is a possibility we could get there at the end. I think with recent strip pricing, I forecast it to be still very early 2024. Speaker 300:18:33Okay. Speaker 400:18:33Okay. Conservative as we like. And then maybe just shifting gears Over to Tim, I wanted to dig into the just the 513,000 that you put up at Horizon AOSP, but maybe a little bit more in terms of Reminding us what the capacity is now across the combined asset and then perhaps How we should be thinking about operating costs on a go forward basis? Speaker 200:19:02Yes. Great. Good questions here. So I mean with Horizon and SOP, obviously, the teams continue to work on opportunities to Increased reliability and obviously deliver safe and effective operations there. So with that During the turnaround, there was increased scope in terms of work that we felt needed to be done on the upgrader. Speaker 200:19:30And I'm actually very proud of our teams in terms of the effort, the way they approached it and dealt with All the work that needs to be done with that asset. So we've seen a little bit of inflationary pressures. But in general, I think we're on the right track in terms of making sure that those assets run reliably and consistently Each and every day. In terms of capacities, Horizon on a capacity day It's pretty well kind of in that $280,000,000 maybe a little bit more here. We'll see what the new furnaces that they are forecasted or targeted to come on in the next couple of weeks. Speaker 200:20:13So that will be a great test for us in terms of seeing that increase. And ASOP, obviously, we've been creeping it up over time and really it's been doing a little bit better than its Capacity here on flight. So I think it's really early here. The numbers look really strong here for July. I'd like to get through July and into August more and we'll see if we can keep that sustained rate. Speaker 200:20:43It's really, really positive. Both sides have Done a really good job here coming out of the turnarounds. Speaker 400:20:50Okay. Thanks to you both. Operator00:20:55Thank you. The next question comes from Manav Gupta at UBS. Please go ahead. Speaker 500:21:02Guys, just wanted to get some clarifications. You generally have a very informed view of apportionments, differentials. And if you could also help us understand from the perspective of the TMX startup, how you're thinking about it? Speaker 200:21:18Sure. As far as apportionment, we don't see it being an issue. From all indications, TMX is will be making a call for a line fill here in the fall here August, September, October. So from that aspect, I look at it as a very positive and very constructive for Canada's oil WCS, because if you can appreciate, one, you'll have the line fill and I believe it's up around 5,000,000 barrels of line fill for that line. And then on top of it, the heavy oil Capacity, I believe is a little over 500,000 barrels a day. Speaker 200:22:04So it's going to take 500,000 barrels a day of heavy to a different market. So to me, I find that the WCS piece will be very constructive here. Obviously, Typically, historically, the winter months, it does widen a bit. But I mean, let's face it, It's 20%. That is still very strong on a relative basis. Speaker 500:22:30Perfect. And a quick follow-up here is you are making investments to Grow volumes, both at oil sands as well as in situ projects, expected start up somewhere around 25. Help us understand how those development projects are growing at this stage? Speaker 200:22:48Well, Really, if you're talking about the thermal piece and the reliability pieces, those are really the only pieces that we've got going into Next year right now, we have we'll be starting the budget process here in the fall to for other areas and decide If we do more additions pad additions at Primrose or at Kirby's. So it's a little early on the forecasting into 24, 25. Speaker 500:23:17Thank you so much. Operator00:23:22Thank you. Next question comes from Dennis Fong at CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead. Speaker 600:23:28Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I'll start with the first one as maybe a bit of a follow-up to Manav's question. You've done a really good job in terms of ramping the production at Wolf Lake and Primrose To 90,000 barrels a day plus for this year, what's your ability to kind of further optimize that capacity? I believe at your Investor Day you outlined facility capacity towards 140,000 barrel a day level. It seems like that's really low hanging fruit when you think about Again, driving OpEx and so forth. Speaker 600:24:00So just any kind of commentary around how you evaluate that and what the opportunity is there? Speaker 200:24:07Yes. It's a very good question there, Dennis. And obviously, the drill to fill opportunities are obviously We rank quite highly. So the team is progressing additional pads at Primrose Kirby where we could do those So incremental volumes going into next year. Usual cycle time is about a year. Speaker 200:24:31So once we start sanctioning those pads, obviously, They're not cheap. They're roughly be almost $170,000,000 per pad. So it's a pretty big project And they take about a year cycle time. So as we go into our budget process there, I can say that they are highly ranked as well as some of the SAGD opportunities and looking forward here into next year. So to your point, They are low hanging fruit in terms of adding volumes. Speaker 600:25:05Great. Great. Thanks for that context. And then the second question I have, Switching more over to the oil sands side. And you mentioned it briefly, and I guess your answer there to Greg's question, which is related To this kind of go around, we saw a little bit of scope change as well as I guess maybe incremental sound work. Speaker 600:25:24As you think about stretching the time Between periods of planned maintenance, how are you managing the potential for additional found work or changes in scope As you kind of run through. Speaker 200:25:37Yes, that's a very good question. And it Really, the key is having a very good preventative maintenance program and asset integrity program. And so I'm actually very proud of our team and the way we're approaching this. What they do is if they find any kind of concern Whether it's piping or equipment, they basically risk assess it. They go through a very detailed process in terms of Will that piece of equipment make it until the next turnaround? Speaker 200:26:12Or is it something that has to be dealt with today? And I look at this last turnaround at Horizon. I mean at both ASOP and Horizon we saw some inflationary costs. But At Horizon, we have, like I said, a very detailed program. I'm very proud of the way they approached it because they saw potential issues that would Potentially decrease our reliability or decrease our utilization there. Speaker 200:26:39And as you know, any downtime at Something like Horizon is very costly. So they looked at it. They did that work during the turnaround Very effectively. So to me, the key in the oil sands is reliability. If If you can produce reliably every day, you can make very good returns. Speaker 200:27:05Obviously, if you Missed something either through your PM program or your Integrity program, it can be very costly in terms of unplanned downtime. So I look at it. It's setting us up well for that 2 year run by them doing thorough reviews Of our piping, of our equipment to make sure it can run reliably. Speaker 600:27:29Great, great. Thanks. Appreciate you answering those questions. I'll turn it back. Speaker 100:27:34Thank you. Operator00:27:38Thank you. The next question comes from Manel Khalschoff at TD Securities. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:27:44Thanks and good morning everyone. I'll start with a question on the acceleration of the timeline for ramp up of new Thermal capacity, you talked about strong execution, but was there anything that really stood out as driving that better than expected outcome? And I guess I'm asking that in the context of what still looks to be a fairly challenging operating environment? Speaker 200:28:08Yes. All the way along, It's a very good question because really we've always said that the key to delivering Good cost control is having very tight execution plan and then sticking to the plan. And The one thing with thermal is it's very condensed. So we have it's in all proximal areas. And it's very much the same pad ads by having a very structured pad ad design. Speaker 200:28:45You can do it cost effectively. So what we're seeing is off the first pad, it took more time. And then as we keep doing these pad adds, The teams are learning on ways to do the construction better and more cost effectively and timely. So it's just by doing things one after another, you can continually improve and that's kind of been our mantra all the way along is that By keeping things simple, keeping them effective, you can continuously improve those operations. Speaker 700:29:21Terrific. And then moving on to natural gas drilling activity, I was just looking at the numbers year on year. It looks like you're effectively Tracking right in line with last year in terms of net wells drilled. What does the rest of the year look like in terms of planned activity? I know you typically address this in the presentation, But I don't see the update on the site yet, so I'm going to ask that question. Speaker 700:29:43And then how many rigs are currently active relative to the beginning of the year to the extent that you can comment on that? Speaker 200:29:50Sure. Well, today we have 8 rigs. If you go back Q1, I said we'd probably be in the 9 to 10 rigs. So a little less today, but to me that's just a timing issue per se. But My feeling is and we've reduced the natural gas count. Speaker 200:30:14I see us continuing with that. And to me, the costs on the natural gas side for drilling completions, the fracking, We're in my mind pressured here in the Q1 and then to that other side Pricing has come off. So I think those will have opportunities maybe later in the year and we'll see what How it looks here as we go into the more in towards the Q4. But I don't feel any pressure to accelerate Natural gas volumes in market here today. Speaker 700:30:55Thanks, Tim. I'll turn it back. Speaker 100:30:58Thank you. Operator00:31:01Thank you. Next question comes from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Speaker 800:31:08Yes. Good morning, Sam and team. Just two quick questions here. First on managing inflationary forces, can you talk about Where you're seeing areas of pressure and areas of relief and then put that in the context of the $200,000,000 Budget pump this year, which you talked a little bit in the prepared remarks about? Speaker 200:31:31Yes. The big ones here that I see today are labor and labor continues to be pressured. With that, I would say the supply side and equipment deliveries are pressured. And what we're doing today is we have to Order, shall we say, further ahead for activities in the future. And so that supply piece is difficult. Speaker 200:31:56The transportation piece was inflated as well in terms of trying to get the stuff out of the ports of Vancouver and that. We're seeing what I would call little incremental pieces, obviously food costs, power costs have gone up. To me, all that has to kind of work through your system because our manufacturers of vessels or equipment Do you see the increased power costs? They do increase labor costs. And you can't today offset it 1 to On the other side, as things start to level out, you will find again efficiencies. Speaker 200:32:37But In the short term, those cost pressures roll through the whole system. So To me, it's just managing what you can going forward. Speaker 800:32:53Yes. Thanks, Tim. And then the follow-up is just on SEO. You talked a little bit with Manav about the WCS outlook, But SEO continues to trade very firm at a premium relative to WTI. I would imagine part of it is just the higher distillate cut and diesel margins are strong. Speaker 800:33:10But Any perspective you can provide on how you think about the outlook versus crude pricing would be great too. Speaker 200:33:16Yes. I think it's very constructive as well. And to your point that the high distillate To cut, it can it will trade at a premium. And again, I just look at it, the whole Oil side in my mind looks very constructive here for Western Canada because incremental capacities even on the light oil side You get another $300,000 or so of incremental egress. People have to actually Look at where they go with their volumes in terms of trying to get the best price for it. Speaker 200:33:55So I just look at both WCS and SEO as being very constructive here going into the fall. Speaker 800:34:04Thank you, sir. Operator00:34:09Thank you. Next question from Doug Leggate at Bank of America. Please go ahead. Speaker 900:34:21Hey, guys. This is actually Clay on for Doug. So thanks for taking the question here. I've only got one because a lot of things have already been touched, But this is also a follow-up on TMX. I understand that you guys are a contracted shipper and are involved in the tariff negotiation. Speaker 900:34:36Just wondering if you can walk through the resolution timeline and also maybe give us an idea of the cash flows and how that would trend during line fill. Because the way I'm thinking about it is you'll obviously be placing barrels into the system, but it's not clear to me that the cash will be realized on a real time basis or there will be some lag? Speaker 300:34:57Yes. Well, on the second part of that question, There's likely to be some lag on the cash flows realized. That's right, because you'll be using some barrels for fill. Speaker 200:35:09And then on the first question with the TMX, so The way the process works is the decision maker is the CER, so it's a Canadian Energy Regulator. And so what they did is, I think yesterday they came out with questions not only for TMX, but a process here in terms of Supplying information to the Canadian Energy Regulator. And so with that, to me, it'll just Under the process that they define and if I would say it's going to take a few months maybe. But really it's out of our hands in terms of the actual timing. To me, the CER does what it's supposed to do and Take a firm look at both sides, the information each side provides and then makes the decision in appropriate time. Speaker 200:36:09From that aspect, to me, it's just normal business in terms of how we have to work under the Canadian Energy Regulators' rules. Speaker 900:36:19I appreciate that. And just to be clear, the tariff will be defined before line fill starts. Is that right? Speaker 200:36:27We don't know. I can't say that definitively because the line fill could start here maybe in August September. We don't I have control of that either. So really that would be a better question maybe for TMX on when they expect to see the line fill. Speaker 900:36:46Got it. I appreciate the answers guys. Thank you. Speaker 200:36:49Okay. Thank you. Operator00:36:53Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions and you may proceed. Speaker 100:36:57Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. Speaker 300:37:01If you Speaker 100:37:01have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thanks and have a great day. Operator00:37:08Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by