Teekay Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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August 3, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Teekay Tankers Limited's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. During the call, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, you will be invited to participate in a question and answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.teekay.com, You will find a copy of the Q2 2023 earnings presentation. Kevin and Stuart will review this presentation during today's conference call. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward looking statements I will now turn the call over to Kevin McKay, Teekay Tankers' President and CEO to begin.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ed. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for Teekay Tankers' 2nd quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Stuart Andrade, T. J. Tanker's CFO and Christian Waldegrave, our Director of Research.

Speaker 2

Moving to our recent highlights on Slide 3 of the presentation. Teekay Tankers generated total adjusted EBITDA of approximately 180 $5,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, more than triple the $58,000,000 we generated in the same quarter of last year. We reported adjusted net income of $149,000,000 or $4.38 per share, almost 6 times last year's 2nd quarter levels of $25,700,000 or $0.76 per share respectively. As a reminder, given our high operating leverage, for every $5,000 increase in day rates above our free cash flow breakeven of $16,000 per day. We expect to generate approximately $2.60 of annual free cash flow per share.

Speaker 2

Our 2nd quarter results reflect this high operating leverage with our owned fleet and 8 vessels cartered in fleet generated a total of $170,000,000 of free cash flow. In line with our fixed quarterly dividend policy announced last quarter. We have declared a cash dividend of $0.25 there for the Q2 of 2023. We have also continued to exercise purchase options on sale leaseback vessels, in this case giving notice on an additional 4 vessels for $57,000,000 As previously mentioned, we will be refinancing these vessels with our $350,000,000 revolving credit facility. Once repurchased in September, these 4 vessels will bring our total initiate leaseback repurchases to 19 vessels $365,000,000 since March of 2023, reducing our interest expense and giving us the ability to better manage cash and debt balances.

Speaker 2

In the market. We saw very strong spot rate for midsized tankers in the 2nd quarter, driven by strong Chinese and Indian oil imports as well as firm oil exports from both Russia and the United States. As we've moved into the Q3, we have seen quarter to date spot rates following their normal seasonal pattern, while remaining well above historical levels for this time of the year. We continue to believe that tanker supply and demand fundamentals are positioning the market well for both the coming winter extended period thereafter. Finally, we extended 2 chartered in vessels an additional 12 months each at an average rate of $20,600 per day, while also securing a further 12 month option on 1 vessel at what we believe is an attractive rate.

Speaker 2

This takes our average in charter rate for 8 vessels to $25,000 per day. We remain active in managing a time charter book that has generated substantial incremental earnings and free cash flow, including approximately $18,000,000 in Q2 of this year. Turning to Slide 4, we look at recent developments in the spot tanker market. As noted, spot tanker rates remained very strong during the Q2. This was due to a combination from Indian and Chinese crude oil imports, an increase in Russian crude oil exports have reached a 3 year high with the majority of volumes moving long haul to India and China and high export volumes from the U.

Speaker 2

S. Gulf For the large proportion continuing to be transported on mid sized tankers to Europe. As is typical at this time of year, spot rates have moderated in Q3 to date, primarily due to seasonal factors. As an example, we have observed that Russian crude oil export volumes have decreased in the past few weeks, which we believe has beaten an increase in Russian refinery throughput to meet summer demand, leaving less crude oil available for export. However, It's important to note that seasonally lower spot rates thus far in Q3 remain well above historic levels as shown by the chart.

Speaker 2

The red dots in the chart indicate our prior Q3 earnings and show the current quarter averaging well above in any Q3 seen in the last decade. In fact, rates in the quarter to date are higher than any quarter in the past decade With the exception of the most recent winter. As shown by chart, over the last 10 years, the seasonal dip in rates, which has typically occurred during Q3, will be has almost always reversed during Q4. And given the tanker market fundamentals, we expect this year to follow the same pattern. As we move into the Q4, the onset of winter seasonal factors coupled with rising oil demand through the second half of the year will lead to even more favorable conditions than in the Q3 to date, leading to another firm winter tanker market.

Speaker 2

Provide an update on our SIRISMAK and Aframax spot rates in the 3rd quarter to date. Average 3rd quarter to date rates have been historically strong. Based on approximately 48% 44% of revenue they've booked, Teekay Tankers' 3rd quarter to date FUVMAX and Aframax vessel bookings have averaged approximately $42,800 per day $48,300 per day, respectively, in both instances, well above the strong Q3 of 2022 spot rates. While current spot market rates have decreased from these very firm quarter to date rates, Weight volatility is expected, particularly in periods of market strength. Importantly, I would highlight the value being created by TNK's 8 vessel chartered in fleet given the continued market strength With an average rate of $25,000 per day and 6 vessels trading in the spot market, the chartered in fleet has a current mark to market value of approximately $64,000,000 Turning to Slide 6, we look at some of the fundamental factors, which we believe will continue to support the strong tanker market over the next 2 to 3 years.

Speaker 2

Starting in the left column, global oil demand remains very robust, driven by non OECD countries and in particular, China due to a rebound in travel and petrochemical demand following the removal of COVID-nineteen restrictions. As per the IEA, global oil demand is set to increase by 2,200,000 barrels per day this year to a record high of just over 102 1,000,000 barrels per day, with further growth of 1,200,000 barrels per day projected for 2024. While production from the OPEC Plus group is uncertain, supply from non OPEC nations continues to grow. Most of this growth is from Atlantic basin producers such as the United States, Brazil and Guyana. Given the demand growth is concentrated in the Asia Pacific region, an increase in long haul movements from the Atlantic to Pacific should be a positive driver Tanker tonnage demand over the medium term.

Speaker 2

In the middle, we show average voyage distances continue to increase due to changing trade patterns as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Since the EU ban on Russian oil imports was introduced late last year, approximately 90% of all Russian crude oil exports have been moving long haul to India and China. Given that VLCCs cannot load directly from Russian ports, This change has primarily benefited the Aframax and Suezmax sectors. Although TNK does not carry Russian oil, overall Suezmax AFRA MAX and AFRA MAX sized vessels have benefited from the 14% increase in voyage distances since the start of last year. Importantly, we expect these trade pattern changes to be durable, meaning continued support for midsized tanker tonne mile demand for the global future.

Speaker 2

Finally, fleet supply fundamentals continue to look very positive with the tanker order book remaining at historic lows Around 5% of the existing tanker fleet. Although this year has seen an increase in tanker ordering when compared low levels of last year. 2023 ordering is actually in line with the 10 year average. Furthermore, the tanker order book is still small compared to the fleet of older vessels that may be phased out in the next few years, Meaning that fleet growth should remain low over the medium term. The shipyard capacity is now largely sold out for 2025 delivery.

Speaker 2

Low fleet growth over the medium term is all but set with approximately 2% fleet growth expected in In sum, we retain our positive outlook for tanker rates over the next 2 to 3 years. I believe that the factors which are supporting this upturn are durable in nature. It is in contrast to recent market upturns I will now turn the call over to Stuart to cover the financial slide.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Kevin. Turning to Slide 7, We highlight the significant shareholder value Teekay Tankers has created over the last 12 months and how well we are positioned to continue creating shareholder value. With 96% of our 53 vessel fleet trading in the spot market, the combination of TNK's high operating leverage and a firm spot market has demonstrated our ability to generate substantial free cash flow in recent quarters. As an illustration of that, over the past 4 quarters, The company has generated over $600,000,000 or $17.62 per share of free cash flow. Looking forward, if the Q2 2023 spot rates were achieved on average over the next four quarters, we would expect to generate a total of about 19 point $0.50 per share in free cash flow.

Speaker 3

This equates to a free cash flow yield of approximately 45%. With our continued strong cash flows, in the 2nd quarter, we decreased our net debt by $153,000,000 to just $28,500,000 Given the continued strength in the tanker market in the 1st part of the third quarter, we are now net debt free, further supporting our ability to reinvest in the TNK fleet when the time is right and to return capital to our shareholders. However, we still have obligations related to sale leaseback financings totaling approximately $210,000,000 $57,000,000 of which we will repay when we acquire 4 tankers in September, with purchase options on the remaining 8 vessels under sale leaseback arrangements available in Q1 2024. I will now turn the call back to Kevin to conclude.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Stuart. In summary, our discipline in capital allocation and the strong markets for midsized tankers have enabled us to build Teekay Tankers' balance sheet into excellent condition. Our fleet of spot market employed midsized tankers positions us well to generate a great deal of free cash flow moving forward. Sustainable multi year fundamentals support a tight midsized tanker market. We will remain disciplined in deploying that cash under our capital allocation policy, and we believe that we are set up well to drive significant shareholder value creation.

Speaker 2

With that operator, we're now available to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of John Chapel or Chappell with Evercore

Speaker 4

ISI. Thank you. Good afternoon or good morning. Stuart, if I can start where you left off, and you probably anticipated already because you already partially answered it. But with The rest of the sale leasebacks coming up in the Q1, having a pretty good line of sight on what that spend will be and being net debt free today, Do you anticipate just kind of saving up capital for that 1Q event where you can really clear the decks on the sale and leaseback?

Speaker 4

Or if there is a seasonal uplift, let's say starting in the Q4, does that make that not really mutually exclusive with ratcheting up either a special dividend or maybe the base dividend.

Speaker 3

Thanks, John. I think at this point, the we as you said, we've got good visibility on the 2 remaining groups of purchase options, which in total are about $200,000,000 So I don't think that's moving the needle significantly in terms of our near term thinking on the dividends. We announced just last quarter a change to our capital allocation policy of of $0.25 per quarter. I don't think you're going to see a change to that in the near term, something that we continue to would expect to see a change to that in the near term. As you know, we've decided that we will use special dividends as the avenue for returning extra capital to shareholders and or using the share buyback program, which we announced last quarter.

Speaker 3

But that's something that we're going to look at on a more periodic basis, not something that we'll be doing on a quarter to quarter basis. So I think we'll probably wait to see how the next few quarters unfold and then make a call in terms of what we want to do on that side of things.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you. And then Kevin, good job laying out the market outlook or maybe this is even for Christian too. Seasonality has come up a fair amount as expected. We have a long history of that.

Speaker 4

However, I was just reading about with the Urals breaking the price cap of $60 Per barrel, maybe some more disruption to the midsize fleet, and maybe in a not favorable manner of vessels that were trading Russian crude, still within compliance of the sanctions now being fearful of violating those and coming back in the main train lanes and maybe putting some pressure on. Have you seen any of that yet? And does that really impact at all kind of your near term view on supply demand within your 2 core segments?

Speaker 2

Hey, John. Yes. We have seen it. Obviously, going into the current spot Market right now, we have seen Europe and U. S.

Speaker 2

Gulf come off quite significantly versus the Far East, which is still holding up at $30,000 a day. And I think some of that is a function of the drop in supply of Russian oil, which I think, patients probably confirm this, but I think we've seen about a 20% drop in Russian oil life force since May. And that's just more oil, I think, is driven towards the refining sector rather than the export market. But I think also with the price cap breach, No, TNK doesn't participate in that trade, but from what we're picking up from people who do, There are still the ability to load the Urals crude, for example, provided they get the attestation. And some owners have indicated they are getting those attestations still.

Speaker 2

Having said that, we have seen an increase in the tonnage lifts There's a number of players who did participate in that, obviously haven't been able to get the attestation from their customers And then now returning to our trade, which is putting some pressure on the India's spot rate. I think as we move forward, I think we'll see the volumes pick back up as the working refineries go into maintenance in the fall. That should be supported as we get into the Q4, as we see more export volume picking up.

Speaker 4

That's very helpful. Thank you, Kevin. Thanks, Stuart.

Speaker 3

Thanks, John.

Speaker 2

Thanks, John.

Operator

Will go next to Omar Khnakta with Jefferies.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Hey, Kevin, it's Stuart. Good morning. Just sort of looking to follow-up a little bit on the balance sheet. Obviously, cash flow is coming in large amounts and deleveraging pretty quickly.

Speaker 5

As you mentioned, Stuart, you're in a net cash position. I guess maybe just first question on this is, you've exercised the 4 ships For the $57,000,000 do you plan to utilize the $350,000,000 facility to sort of finance that purchase or do you really want to focus on just using cash

Speaker 3

Hi, Omar. Thanks for the question. It will depend on how the next quarter or for the first purchase options in September will depend on how the next quarter goes. And then for the others in Q1, again, it will depend on how much cash flow we generate. Really, whether we use cash on hand or need to draw on that revolver in order to finance those It's more like a near term cash flow consideration as opposed to a significant decision, I guess.

Speaker 3

It just depends on if we have sufficient cash in the bank to make those repayments. The vessels we are repurchasing will go into that facility and they will form this Part of the security for that facility, so we've prearranged it. So those vessels will go in there. But whether we need to draw to it in order to make that repurchase or not will Just depend on the spot market.

Speaker 5

Okay. Yes, I was just sort of trying to figure because clearly the Obviously, depending on how the freight market goes from here, it looks like you could obviously pay down the you could exercise those options with cash, leave that facility alone and then you've got the $200,000,000 that you were mentioning that you could exercise next year. You could probably do that with cash as well. And so just wondering, is it an aim of yours to get the balance sheet to completely debt free? You've eliminated the bank debt.

Speaker 5

You still have the lease debt. Can you envision is it a goal of yours to take both the bank debt and the lease debt to 0 And still have a bit of cash on the balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Yes. We haven't made a final decision on whether we're going to exercise the purchase options on the vessels in Q1. As I said, they are available and that's about $150,000,000 We haven't made that decision yet. But it is we may do that. And if we do, we would envision being completely debt free with cash on the balance sheet.

Speaker 3

As we outlined when we introduced the capital allocation policy last quarter and just to remind everybody, our number one priority is to build ready for making reinvestments in the fleet at the right time when the opportunities arise. And that is one of the things that we're focused on. We haven't acquired a tanker since 2017, so it's been quite a long time. We've been focused on being disciplined and getting our balance sheet in order. But As a result, we do have significant investments that we could make if the opportunities arise and we're really trying to prepare ourselves for that.

Speaker 3

The reason that we're generating all of this cash flow at the moment is because we have 53 vessels trading because we made investments in our tanker fleet in the past. And our view for the long term value creation for shareholders is that we need to reinvest and we're going to do that in a disciplined way when the opportunities arise.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. That makes sense. And I guess we'll see how those opportunities start to play out. Just one final follow-up and just back to the debt.

Speaker 5

I saw in the release you mentioned that you've terminated or canceled a 60 $5,000,000 credit facility that was due to mature next year. It was undrawn. Just wondering kind of out of curiosity what was the reason for terminating

Speaker 3

that. Yes. Given our liquidity at the end of Q2, which you saw is over $600,000,000 We didn't really need have the need for the extra liquidity that that facility provided to us. Of course, all revolving credit facilities or our revolving with any credit facilities in any case have a carrying cost. And it was just really an optimization decision to avoid the cost of having that extra availability When we don't really need it and we're accumulating cash flow quite quickly from operations.

Speaker 3

So it's really an optimization decision.

Operator

We'll go next to Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Speaker 6

Hey, this is Nathan Ho dialing in for Ken. I just have a quick housekeeping question. First, I see in the presentation, there's a slight pickup in your free cash flow breakeven TCEs to $16,000 from $15,000 last quarter. And this is in spite of some pretty impressive deleveraging moves. Could you maybe just walk me through the math there on what's driving that slight increase?

Speaker 3

Hi, Nathan. Thanks for the question. I don't have a breakdown of the fine detail on that, but I will the big picture Reason for the increase is that we've extended some time charters at incrementally higher rates than we had previously. So Our average in charter rate is now about $25,000 a day, which is obviously very, very compelling versus current freight markets. So it makes a lot of sense to be extending those time charters, but some of them are at incrementally higher rates than they were before and that's the primary driver behind the We can take it offline to give you the help you with to bridge that specifically if you'd like.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And just maybe continuing on that point, it sounds like a lot of the capital decisions seem to be a little contingent on how the spot market performs and an impressive $64,000,000 mark to market on the charter in contracts. Could we anticipate some actualizations of those mark to market gains?

Speaker 6

As in could we possibly see A slight increase in the time charter exposure or a slight decrease in the 96% spot exposure?

Speaker 2

Hi, Nathan. Yes, I think, I mean, we said this On calls in the past, we're always keeping an eye on the spot market relative to the time charter market or vice versa. And on our in charter fleet, we have 8 and we actually made the decision several quarters ago to put Couple of them out and lock in that margin and crystallize the gain on those. Similarly with our fleet, as opportunities arise, we will compare them with what we think our forward view of the What market is and if the opportunity is compelling and adds more value, we'll lock in. But it's not something that we Strategized to set a target on.

Speaker 2

It's more opportunistic. It's always reflective of what gives us the best return Over that period of time thought versus time travel.

Speaker 6

Got it. That's clear. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much for joining us and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Goodbye.

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Teekay Q2 2023
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