Federal Agricultural Mortgage Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 7, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Farmer Mac Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Joltin Nazareth, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Finance Strategy.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 2023 earnings conference call. I'm Joltan Nasrzyk, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Finance Strategy here at Farmer Mac. As we begin, Please note that the information provided during this call may contain forward looking statements about the company's business, strategies and prospects, which are based on management's current expectations and assumptions. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance and are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected. Please refer to Farmer Mac's 2022 Annual Report and subsequent SEC filings for a full discussion of the company's risk factors.

Speaker 1

On today's call, we will be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures. Disclosures and reconciliations of these non GAAP measures Can be found in the most recent Form 10 Q and earnings release posted on Farmer Mac's website, farmermac.com, Under the Financial Information portion of the Investors section. Joining us from management this morning are President and Chief Executive Officer, Brad Nordholm, Who will discuss 2nd quarter business and financial highlights and strategic objectives and Chief Financial Officer, Aparna Ramesh, Who will provide greater detail on our financial performance. Select members of our management team will also be joining us for the question and answer period. At this time, I'll turn the call over to President and CEO, Brad Nordholm.

Speaker 1

Brad?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jalpa, and morning, everyone. Thank you very much for joining us. I'm pleased to report that for the Q2 of 2023, Farmer Mac once again surpassed Previous records in revenues, core earnings and non effective spread, building on the strength of our performance. Our capital base remains strong, which along with our disciplined asset liability management and uninterrupted access to the capital markets Supports our long term strategic growth objectives and also serves as a buffer against market volatility and changing credit market conditions. These results further demonstrate the resilience of our business model and the success of strategic initiatives Designed to grow the company profitably, while fulfilling our mission to rule America and generating shareholder returns Across changing market cycles.

Speaker 2

In the second quarter, we recorded core earnings of $42,200,000 reflecting a 37% increase over the same period last year. We achieved gross new business volume of $2,200,000,000 during the quarter, resulting in total outstanding business volume of $26,700,000,000 as June 30, 2023. Included in the $2,200,000,000 new volume was incremental volume in the form Since the strategic acquisition and expansion of our loan servicing functions in the Q3 2020 1, we have looked for opportunities such as this recent acquisition to scale this portfolio while creating more process transparency and greater efficiencies across our loan servicing platform. This capability gives us more direct oversight and governance of our portfolio, Enhanced security, more control over timely access to data and better visibility into loan performance From inception to maturity. We'll continue to work with our key partners to identify ways to capitalize on this initiative to create a more efficient process for our customers and their borrowers.

Speaker 2

The volume growth we've seen in the first half of this year is largely attributable to the efforts we've made over the last few years to diversify our business model across several key markets. The agricultural finance line of business grew over $500,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, Predominantly due to the previously mentioned acquisition of new loan servicing rights and growth in our corporate Ag Finance segment. There was good activity in Corporate Ag Finance, reflecting our success in building our reputation in this market. For example, during the Q2, we were invited to participate in deals with very large well known counter Parties and have received more inquiries in recent months than we have ever seen before. Opportunities in this segment are generally more accretive from a net effective spread standpoint, the volume tends to be lumpy on a quarter to quarter basis.

Speaker 2

We remain focused on this segment as it is a key component of our diversification strategy, central to our mission and impactful for earnings and continued growth. Activity in our Farm and Ranch segment continues to be moderate as a result of the higher interest rate environment, but prepayment rates remain at historically low levels during the Q2. We saw an increase in the number of loan applications and approvals during the Q2, reflecting borrowers adjustments to the new rate environment. The agriculture mortgage market has been seen a shift to primarily variable rate products As borrower sentiment generally expects rates to decrease over the next 5 to 10 years. Another key contributor to the increase in loan applications this past quarter was the enhancement of our scorecard underwriting product, Ag Express, which allows more loans with up to 65% loan to value ratios, which is an increase from our previous criteria of 55% maximum loan to value.

Speaker 2

The expansion of this criteria allows us to better support our customers with a product that aligns with other lenders in the marketplace today. And we can do this without increasing our credit risk appetite. Turning to our rural infrastructure line of business, We saw continued healthy growth in the renewable energy segment during the second quarter. In syndicated renewable energy transactions has increased the number of opportunities we can participate in with key counterparties. The pipeline remains strong in the near term as we continue to focus on upsizing existing deals and bringing on new renewable energy opportunities.

Speaker 2

We also continue to invest additional resources to further support this segment. Offsetting growth this quarter was the maturity of a single large AgVantage security in the Rural Utilities segment That resulted in a net decrease in the rural infrastructure line of business. During the disruptions in the banking industry in March, Many of our counterparties opted to delay the refinancing of upcoming maturities to better navigate the market volatility and evaluate their capital and liquidity needs. In recent months, as market has stabilized, we've seen many of those conversations resume. We're having more discussions about our product offerings as potential capital efficiency and liquidity conduit for our customers.

Speaker 2

We anticipate that this will result in a growing volume pipeline as we look ahead to the second half of the year and into 2024. Over the last few years, we've invested in our infrastructure By upgrading technology platforms, processes and product offerings to improve the customer experience. I'm pleased to announce today that we will be rolling out a pilot program to complete collateral valuations Using technology, which if successful, should reduce total loan processing times. This pilot will begin with many Midwestern properties With a goal of launching the program more broadly in the Q1 of 2024. As we've mentioned previously, we are well into a significant upgrade of our treasury and cash management platforms and embarking on something similar with our loan purchase and processing platforms.

Speaker 2

Our commitment to incorporating innovation And modernizing existing technology is expected to continue to differentiate Farmer Mac and Our underlying business model, Strong capital position and uninterrupted access to the debt capital markets through the various market disruptions Uniquely positions us to partner with our customers to help them manage their business and the risks they face around future capital requirements and liquidity. The foundation of our strategy is our consistent financial and operational execution, coupled with proactive management of our balance sheet And funding sources. This has positioned us well in changing credit environments and is expected to continue to create more opportunities to enhance shareholder value and fulfill our mission. So now I'd like to turn the call over to a partner, Ramesh, Our Chief Financial Officer to discuss our financial results in more detail. Aparna?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Our record Q2 2023 results highlight our balanced, Well measured approach, continued strong credit quality and resiliency across market cycles. We achieved $2,200,000,000 of gross new business volume this quarter. Some of the key components included $675,000,000 of wholesale financing from our large traditional counterparties in the Farm and Ranch segment, The majority of which was refinancing of existing advantaged securities. Dollars 563,000,000 of additional loans serviced for $199,000,000 in Farm and Ranch loan purchases, dollars 165,000,000 in new corporate ag finance loan purchases and unfunded commitments, dollars 135,000,000 in new rural utilities loan purchases, dollars 80,000,000 of which was telecommunications loans And $72,000,000 in new renewable energy loan purchases and purchase commitments.

Speaker 3

Even after repayments, maturities and acquisition of servicing rights, we grew about $300,000,000 this quarter in our outstanding business volume. And this speaks to the benefit of strategic decisions over the last few years that we've undertaken to diversify our portfolio. Turning to core earnings. Core earnings was $42,200,000 or $3.86 per share Q2 2023 and this reflects a 37% year over year increase. This increase was driven by record net effective spread of $81,800,000 in Q2 2023 compared to $60,900,000 in the same period last year.

Speaker 3

In percentage terms, our net effective spread in Q2 of 2023 increased to 120 basis points And this was primarily driven by a low cost excess capital and our ability to redeploy this excess capital into higher earning assets, as well as the continued trend towards higher spread volume. The capital that we raised opportunistically When rates were at historical lows in 2020 2021 continues to reduce the need for us to raise more expensive term and callable debt In a rising rate environment, we continue to defensively hold about $600,000,000 to $800,000,000 of cash And other short term instruments in our liquidity portfolio. Not only does this help us weather potential market disruptions, our excess and highly liquid capital Generates immediate returns in a high nominal rate environment. This benefit is expected to continue to create downward pressure On our non GAAP funding costs, as the short end of the curve continues to increase with Fed actions and the reinvesting of excess capital Generate additional returns with an upward repricing of our short term investment portfolio. While the rise in short term rates has provided An asymmetric benefit to earnings.

Speaker 3

We project limited downside to earnings if REITs decline in the future due to our proactive equity capital allocation strategy. Specifically, we expect to retain Some of the benefit over the medium term is rates decline as we have started extending maturities in our investment portfolio. Again, these are all practices that are highly consistent with our disciplined approach, which is designed to minimize earnings volatility. Our fundamental asset liability management approach where we match fund the duration and convexity of our assets and liabilities In all rate environments remains unchanged as it has allowed us to successfully navigate changing market environments and contain earning volatility. Our business has certain natural hedges that we have honed over time and this helps us be insulated from interest rate volatility.

Speaker 3

We see this as a key differentiator for us relative to other financial services entities, especially depository institutions. For example, when interest rates rise, prepayments also tend to decline, but interest earned on excess cash and capital would likely increase And we would continue to have strong market access as we're not reliant on deposits as a source of funding. Conversely, when interest rates decline, Loan purchase volume often increases, but prepayments also tend to increase and interest on our liquidity portfolio usually ends, but we're able to manage Our interest rate risk through exercising callable issuances and thereby we're able to maintain our margins. Although these natural business dynamics And not perfect offsets, they do counterbalance to mitigate volatility from changes in short term interest rates. Our liquidity and capital positions are well in excess of all regulatory ratios and our projections show minimal change in our profitability and market value, regardless of the direction and size of any rate shocks that we apply to stress our balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Let's now turn to operating expenses. Expenses increased by 21% year over year and this is primarily due to the expenditures that are associated with a multiyear technology investment that we're making in our treasury and cash management systems to enhance our trading, hedging and reporting This modernization effort is expected to position us to be defensive against cyber and fraud threats And also allow us to scale our portfolio and diversify our product offerings. We expect our run rate operating expenses To increase at a pace above historical averages over the next several years, given plans to continue to make investments in our team and our infrastructure to support our growth and strategic objectives. Our operating efficiency is 27% year to date and below our strategic plan target of 30%. And this is primarily because revenue growth increased at a significantly higher rate than expenses.

Speaker 3

We will continue to closely monitor our efficiency As we continue to make investments in our loan infrastructure and funding platforms and innovate our loan processes to accelerate growth, We may see some temporary increases above the 30% level. Our credit profile remains very strong in aggregate despite economic headwinds. We saw a seasonal decrease in 90 day delinquencies from the Q1 as well as a repayment from a single $16,000,000 permanent planting loan that became delinquent in Q1 of 2023. As of June 30, 90 day delinquencies reflect 17 basis points of our entire portfolio. As of June 30, 2023, the total allowance for losses was $19,100,000 reflecting a $1,100,000 increase from Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 3

The increase was primarily attributable to new telecommunications business volume in the rural infrastructure portfolio And new agricultural storage and processing volumes in the agricultural finance portfolio. Subsequent to quarter end, An entity purchased the assets and assumed the liabilities of a single agricultural storage and processing loan that was subject to bankruptcy proceedings in the first half of the year. As a result of this, Farmer Mac has received proceeds from this bankruptcy sale And we therefore expect to release during the Q3 the entire allowance for loan loss attributed to this loan, Which was approximately $4,600,000 as of June 30. Now turning to capital. Farmer Mac's $1,400,000,000 of core capital as of June 30, 2023 exceeded our statutory requirement by $566,000,000 or 70%.

Speaker 3

Core capital increased sequentially, primarily due to an increase in retained earnings. Our Tier 1 capital ratio improved to 15.9% as of June 30, 2023 from 15.7% as of March 31, largely due to strong earnings results and higher retained earnings. Maintaining credit standards that reflect our risk profile coupled with strong levels of capital It's a fundamental part of our long term strategy. So in conclusion, our entire team delivered exceptional quarterly results, Surpassing the key metrics that we highlight on each call, while staying within our credit framework. Notably, we delivered a record 19% return on equity this quarter and stayed well below our efficiency target of 30%.

Speaker 3

We believe that our balance sheet is continued to be well positioned for uncertainty and we're more optimistic than ever To deliver on our long term strategic plan objectives. And with that, Brad, let me turn it back to you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Aparna. Our business model is resilient and diversified and our balance sheet is very healthy. We operate with high capital levels and believe that we're well positioned to deliver earnings growth and strong profitability for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. We've emphasized that our ability to issue long dated fixed rate debt in all rate environments and economic cycles It's a core competitive advantage that when combined with our approach to asset liability management helps to produce consistent spreads and provides forward I'm extremely proud of our team and the excellent progress that we're making Our multi year strategic initiatives, we remain focused on our mission to increase the accessibility of financing for American agriculture In rural infrastructure, we are aligned across our organization and with our customers to bring even greater efficiencies and lower costs In providing financings to lenders for the benefit of their farm and ranch, agribusiness and rural infrastructure customers. And now operator, I'd like to see if we have any questions from anyone on the line today.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Today's first question comes from Bill Raim with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question and very nice quarter. Just kind of looking at your mix of business, obviously changed a little bit in the quarter. You talked about the acquisition of the servicing asset, Some acceleration in corporate ag finance. I know we've got 6 months left to go in the year, but how do you see the mix of business kind of playing out through the rest of 2023, that's the first question.

Speaker 2

And it's important one. As we've emphasized, we're Pleased with the increasing diversification of our business. We think it brings more stability through different economic cycles. And We tried to emphasize some of the reasons for that in the call today. As we look out Bill to the rest of 2023, with Increasing acceptance and I guess experience with higher interest rates, we're optimistic that we'll see some increase In farm and ranch applications.

Speaker 2

We do expect to see more opportunity with corporate ag finance, Primarily because of our growing credibility in that market sector, including with leading syndicate banks, The overall credit demands are not necessarily increasing, but our presence is. I think looking out to the rest of the year and then looking forward the next couple of years. In terms of a percentage increase projection, but starting from a small notional base, We see probably the greatest growth in renewable energy. So kind of looking out towards the end of the year, Continued growth in renewable energy, it's still small. It's just starting to move the needle.

Speaker 2

Hopefully, some higher levels of both corporate finance And Farm and Ranch. And at the end of the year, the balance will probably shift slightly towards Ever so slightly towards Farm and Ranch and Corporate Agabusiness just because they're larger books of business here at Farmer Mac. I want to emphasize that the servicing is very strategic for us. It is not a huge driver of top line or bottom line Earnings results, but it provides us with a way to create more opportunities for how We create valuable relationships with our seller servicers. It gives us more immediate access to data That for example among other things supports our securitization programs and it allows us to focus More on operational excellence in servicing, not just for our own operation, but for our seller servicers too.

Speaker 2

So you're going to continue to hear about that, But it's not going to be a large breakout number in our earnings for the at least the next couple of years.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Speaker 2

And Bill, I'm sorry to interrupt, but I partly wanted to add something to that.

Speaker 3

Just to augment what Brad On the farm and ranch space, we're also seeing increased demand for our Advantage facilities. So we expect that to be another area of, I would say, Composition shift as you look out through that.

Speaker 2

That's true, Bill. And partner makes a very good point and AgVantage tends to be very lumpy. So One expected or unexpected new AgVantage facility in the back half of the year can move the needle by 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars.

Speaker 4

Okay. And a follow-up question on the modernization efforts. Obviously, we saw the Acceleration in expenses this quarter that you've been broadcasting for last couple of quarters. What is the kind of the timeframe you're Thinking for the modernization effort, is this going to go through 2024 or 2025? And the other part of that is, Did you say the expense run rate you kind of expected to return back to historical levels after this quarter?

Speaker 4

I just wanted to be clear on that.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think a couple of points, Bill, let me just unpack your question into 2 places. 1, the modernization effort that we're referring to That's begun, has to do with our treasury platforms. And what we're looking at and the good news here is that we expect to see an acceleration In the timeline, it will run through 2024, but we'll probably see some modest acceleration into this year. And that It's likely to put a little bit of upward pressure on operating expenses, but we expect to see that fully be completed by the end of 2020 At the latest, if anything, maybe by the middle of 2024, it should all be completed.

Speaker 3

So that's probably going to create a little bit of lumpiness Just in our operating expenses as we start to move forward some of that into this year. And then we're also embarking on some other types of innovation that are a little bit more offensive in nature, some modernization, but Things that we've done on our loan platform origination front. So that will probably get laddered in and staggered and some of those efforts are likely to spill Well into 2024 and into 2025, but it's too early to really ascertain what the magnitude of it is. But most of the modernization efforts are related to the treasury platform that we have a pretty So given all of that and thinking through just how the rate environment might shift, we think that We'll still be able to maintain that efficiency ratio of 30%. But certainly, this quarter, you saw us at about 27%.

Speaker 3

So we expect to see a little An uptick trending up towards that 30%, but still staying comfortably in that range.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll hop back into the queue.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Gary Gordon, a Private Investor. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking my call.

Speaker 6

First, a few questions, if you don't mind. First, my favorite one, what were your charge offs for the quarter?

Speaker 5

0.

Speaker 6

0. Once again. 2, I was looking at the interest margin, which is pretty about 120 basis points. I noticed there's something called fair value hedges on fair value hedge relationships, which have no idea what that is. That added about 7 basis points and it looks volatile.

Speaker 6

This is a unusually good core. What is that? And Is it basically non recurring or just volatile over time?

Speaker 3

Yes. So Gary, this is just very fundamental to our business model because when we talk to you about core earnings and net effective spread, We really take out the effect of derivatives that we engage in purely for risk management reasons. So no volatility there. We're not running a prop trading book or anything like that. But what it does do is as interest rates continue to fluctuate, there's an inverse proportion to those derivatives.

Speaker 3

And so you're naturally going to see Some noise that really results from that. So anything that's really a fair value hedge has the effect of impacting our P and L. And that's really why we have this metric of core earnings and net effective spread, because that gives you a little bit more of a Pure look at what our true margins are. So essentially that's again, since we're not really doing this for trading purposes or to make Do anything other than really manage our interest rate risk. All of this will really revert to the mean over time if We hold these assets to maturity, which is really how we look at it.

Speaker 3

So that's really what I would say about that number that you're looking There is some volatility, but it's not really meaningful to us from a profitability standpoint.

Speaker 6

Okay. But as a run rate, maybe the 118 basis

Speaker 3

That's right. And we continue to anchor our Expectations as a metric of somewhere between 90 to 100 basis points, maybe ticks up between 95 to 105 basis Because of the diversification of our revenue streams as well as some of the opportunistic issuances that we've done, that does not factor in any fluctuations From these types of hedging, that actually has the effect of really normalizing us or bringing us back to the mean. So the 120 basis Those continue to be the same reasons that we've talked to you about before. Strong diversification from our revenue streams, compositional shift towards higher earning assets, As well as the continued payoff of those opportunistic issuances that we've done, that's brought down our overall cost The funds as a nominal rate environment continues to be priced upwards.

Speaker 5

Okay, thanks. Last

Speaker 6

question is That the dividend, obviously, that's a decision for early next year. But Just looking at the numbers, so your current dividend of $4.40 is something like 30% of your current Operating earnings run rate, my impression is your dividend payout target is about 40%. Even at 40%, if you're near your maintain your current ROE that leaves Growth in capital of something like 10%, 11%, which I would think it would be a challenge to use and you're sitting there with $700,000,000 in excess capital. Seems like there's a lot of excess capital on the books and Generated, how do I think about the dividend in this discussion?

Speaker 2

Yes. First, Gary, I don't think I've ever mentioned 40%. I think we have mentioned mid-30s Got it. A number of times and in some of these above expected return years that maybe has Diluted it down into the low 30s or as you know now 30%. You won't be surprised To hear that we will evaluate the actual dividend, when we get our 2023 numbers, kind of at year end.

Speaker 2

I for 1 am very hopeful that we can continue to execute on our strategic plan and that means putting Stronger growth on segments of business that will consume capital. And so, I'm Pleased if we have this cushion. It gives us credibility with our regulators. It also gives us a lot of leeway And being opportunistic to grow faster in some of these segments if the market opportunity presents itself. That's more contrast to a lot of commercial banks today, I'd note.

Speaker 2

So, we're in a great position. We'll evaluate the dividend at year end. We will take into consideration, our board will all the Things that we have in the past, growth rates, capital consumption and probably a gravitation towards that Mid-30s target again, but we still have half the year left to go.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Brendan McCarthy with Sidoti. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Great. Good morning and thank you for taking my question. I'm wondering if you can expand on the loan servicing Growth in business volume and what the spread looks like on that business. It looks like the total widening in NES 120 basis points was primarily driven by Farm and Ranch.

Speaker 5

I was

Speaker 7

just wondering if you could provide some insight on the spread on The loan servicing business volume?

Speaker 2

Yes. The loan servicing spread and It's really fee income, is very similar to what you'd see in other loan servicing operations for different Types of loan assets in other sectors, commercial loans, for example, commercial mortgage loans. And so we're talking think of it in the Teens basis point range. It's important to and as I said earlier, it's not something that Has a huge impact on top line or bottom line revenue today, but it is strategic. Doing our own loan servicing, we have access to Payment data on those loans almost instantaneously versus 2 to 3 week delay with 3rd party servicers is an example.

Speaker 2

That gives us the ability to make more immediate decisions, if there and identify any potential issues. It also is very supportive of our securitization efforts, which require very, very tight reporting. So it's very important in that regard. The $600,000,000 approximately that was added this quarter Was acquisition from 1 of our large seller servicers, firm with whom we have a great relationship. And they just concluded that it wasn't strategic for them, but it is for us.

Speaker 2

And the other thing I'd note is that while the Top line and bottom line revenue numbers don't move the needle that much today. It is highly accretive. There are huge economies of scale in this business. And so for example, with our existing loan servicing operation, We were able to take on this additional $600,000,000 with very, very minimal incremental expense. It almost all goes right to the bottom line.

Speaker 2

So we'll continue to look for opportunities in the future, particularly when our interests and an existing Seller servicers interests align and hope to grow further.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. And then one more question on me. In the Rural Utilities Is this I know you mentioned there was one single maturity that drove the sequential decline there. What was the size of That loan?

Speaker 3

So Brandon, yes, a lot of this tends to be a bit lumpy, and this was Around $500,000,000 But stay tuned because as we look out into Q3 and Q4, you're going to probably see Renewing of some of that, which will probably recalibrate back up. So sometimes the queue over queue picture can be a little misleading. But as we said In response to one of the earlier questions, continue to see some lumpiness in these advantage maturities because We're also actively renewing a number of them that probably can have an offsetting effect.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. One final question. Just it looks like in the farm and ranch business, I guess, volume would have been down sequentially if it weren't for that large loan servicing Acquisition, what are the business trends like in that business now?

Speaker 7

Is higher interest rates really weighing on that business in the second quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, higher interest rates are, they significantly slow prepayments. But keep in mind that these loans are regularly advertising loans. And so it's not that we're getting prepaid on a bunch of loans because they're refinancing with other people, it's that they're making regularly scheduled payments. That's what's driving Most of the net change in Farm and Ranch.

Speaker 2

Farmer Mac hosted its now annual Seller Summit in Des Moines in June. And it was anecdotal, but I think what we heard there was that For those who have the direct engagement with those farmers and ranchers that there's a bit more optimism that volumes are Starting to come back and as I mentioned in my opening comments, that may be largely attributable to just Farmers getting used to a higher interest rate environment and realizing that they do have opportunities to expand their farm and ranch operations And that maybe they want to borrow fixed rate or maybe variable rate Given their outlooks for interest rates. And so that slightly more nuanced examination of Borrowing opportunity that we're hearing about amongst farmers and ranchers, we hope to see that show up in some incremental volume In the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. That's all from me. Great.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 3

That's all from me.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question today comes from the forest syndrome, a retail investor. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. And I got a lot of comments and I have a lot of questions. Just I think you guys continue to Be very humble in terms of how you guys have performed, but just absolutely phenomenal Results, it's showing up in the share price to some extent, but I don't think it's fully reflected. And I appreciate the fact you're trying to highlight the growth opportunities, but they just seem really Phenomenal. So that's kind of where some of my comments and questions are going to go.

Speaker 5

But even the recent performance just on a 6 month basis, Very, very strong in light of we're seeing performance in the financial sector, especially banks doing a horrible job with duration matching. You guys are showing an ability to grow your loan book and actually have spreads improve. That is it's almost bordering on amazing. That's very, very good. There was a previous question on the dividend and this is something I talked to Jalpa and I think Brad and Aparna in the past.

Speaker 5

Slide 15, there's a change from Q2 to Q3. As an investor, I appreciate that. And I think other Investors need to look at that as well. And I'm sure there's some work that went into putting in this slide with this dividend CAGR discussion. So the first question is Farmer Mac the fastest dividend grower over the last 12 years Within those cohorts, S and P 500, Russell 2,000, is that the are we the fastest dividend CAGR, the largest?

Speaker 2

DeForest, that is exactly a question I've been asking and we're going to get to the bottom of that because I think we may be. And when you look at the absolute consistency on top of that, it is a remarkable story. And to your first point, I'd just like to note that We have always insisted that comparisons with banks as comparables are really not relevant. And The current situation that banks face with stagnant commercial loan notional rates and Increasing deposit costs and the challenges that that presents to them on maintaining margins in contrast to us It's something that we are talking to investors more about, because we think this current environment It's a real opportunity for us not to compare ourselves to commercial banks, but to differentiate ourselves from commercial banks. Our asset liability Model and practices are almost the exact opposites of banks and that we have the call option on the liabilities, Not the issue of the liability.

Speaker 5

Okay, Brad, that's helpful. I'll say it publicly, but I've said this privately with you guys. You have a situation where the sell side analysts are going to compare you to other financial companies. And I agree that's not True. I've talked to you and said this in the past, rightly or wrongly, but I think that the company as a GSE Needs to be valued based on previous valuations of other GSEs, predating the craziness of the financial crisis like Fannie and Freddie.

Speaker 5

And if that's the case, then appropriate valuation, at least just on a PE basis, not even getting into The fact that there should be discussion on the dividend growth model from a valuation perspective, but a PE of 15 or higher, Given your performance, it seems to be more reasonable. That might be something you want to think about discussions, say, look, Fannie and Freddie Pre financial crisis trading at 15x PE for a number of years and certain dividend yield number. This is our benchmark because that's what we are. Unfortunately, the peer group would only be a couple of companies, but you guys are A very unique situation and it's not being the company is not being valued in that way. The stock price should have a to in front of it.

Speaker 5

It's severely undervalued. Once again, that's just my opinion, but I'm always trying to Help you guys and I know you're trying to be humble in terms of how you're performing, but it's pretty phenomenal what you've been able to accomplish. So That's just a comment. I wanted another question on the hiring. You talked about continuing to grow.

Speaker 5

Can you give us an update on the current headcount and how many open positions are we looking to fill in the remainder of the year?

Speaker 3

Yes. So thank you so much for those comments and I think we really appreciate it. In terms of our headcount, we've certainly seen a much better picture in terms of When we look at it on a relative basis, we want to be at full complement of about 100 and 85, and that includes some part time and so on. I believe our current headcount is closer to 172, but I think that's right.

Speaker 5

At the

Speaker 2

end of the Q2.

Speaker 3

At the end of the second quarter. That's not to say that we'll be successful in really getting to that 185 number, but that's really what we think of as Full complement in terms of filling all of those positions. So we expect to see this 13 or so open positions Start to get chipped away at between now year end. But as we get to that full complement number, I think you'll see 2024, have some spillover as well. And that's also another reason why we think our efficiency ratio is A little depressed right now.

Speaker 3

And as we start to get to that full complement, you'll start to see it going back up to that 30%. So that's really just to give you a handle on We think about managing the business and in line with some of our revenue projection.

Speaker 2

Yes. I'd just add to that, DeForest, That 180 plus number is, no, that's full employment. You've always got some vacancies associated with Turnover, our turnover rates are well under 10%. In fact, they're down this year compared to last year. I think last time I looked at the first half of the year On an annualized basis, it's like 6%, 7%, which is extremely healthy, I think.

Speaker 2

But even when you apply that to The 180, you end up with something less. And we don't discount our employment Budget employment number by the natural number of vacancies that we might have happened. So I don't view the current headcount as a weakness as not executing on plan. It's A couple of the positions are ones that we've just decided to go slow on. A couple of them are because of turnover.

Speaker 2

So, I think we're in a very comfortable range here, certainly within 10% of our target employment.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then on the Farm and Ranch book, we've had a number of transactions announced within California banks doing transactions. I think on a previous conference call, there was a discussion about Potentially seeing some loan books shake loose. Is that still a possibility? Are there any ongoing discussions?

Speaker 5

And Would those loans potentially be able to be acquired at some type of discount to outstanding balance?

Speaker 2

It's a great question. We're keeping an eye on what's happened with the Failed California Banks, name is Suicon Valley Bank. I think we have mentioned on our prior call that as an example, they have $750,000,000 something like that of I've been hearing loans. But those right now are held by the successor organization. So we're keeping an eye on it.

Speaker 2

There are other banks that last quarter had significant capital pressures Attributable to their mark to market investment portfolios. And I think I speculated on the last call that maybe some of them I would be in a position of having to do a bit more selling. There are a couple of financial institutions, where we're having discussions about Maybe purchasing a larger portion of their agriculture mortgage loans than we have in the past. They Maybe hold fewer on balance sheet and sell more to us, but nothing definitive on that. Where we are seeing something that could result in some higher numbers During the remainder of the year is around AgVantage.

Speaker 2

From some of the institutional investors in agriculture mortgage loans, Think insurance companies that do direct origination. They are showing some increased appetite for our AgVantage product. And so stay tuned on that because that's something that could end up could show up in our numbers the end of the year, some of those facilities take a long time to put together. So we might put it the facility together and it spills over into 2024. But that is an area where we're seeing some unexpected additional demand.

Speaker 5

Okay, that's helpful. And then I think it's worth spending some time talking more about the renewable energy book. I'm on Page 114 of the 10 Q. You got your June 30, 2022 outstanding balance $148,000,000 June 30, 2023, dollars 327,000,000 that's 100 and 22% year over year growth in that loan book. And you didn't say that, but that's a really big number.

Speaker 5

The wheel is starting to spin. I think there was a comment in the past that's going to be A $1,000,000,000 book at some point. Where does that book head At the end of this year. I mean, that's really impressive growth.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think if you take the First half of the year and kind of use that rate of growth on a notional dollar basis for the second half. That's probably baseline. It could We are committing additional resources to this area. For example, we haven't announced it yet, but We've just had an acceptance for a very senior experienced renewable energy Executive, who will be charged with bringing a bit more organization and Both internal administration, but then more aggressive external outreach for those programs.

Speaker 2

And that reflects our optimism about our opportunity to kind of double this book every year for the next couple of years With that $1,000,000,000 being in the sites just a few years out. And so and we think it could double again after that. So, you're seeing a commitment of additional resources internally and that reflects our not just optimism, but our confidence In the depth of this market and the comparative advantages that Farmer Mac has from a funding and national Our reach standpoint and being a player in that market.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's very helpful. I was hoping you mentioned something like that under the hiring discussion. Building on the energy loan book comment, and I don't want to get a better understanding how this business works, but I see some companies like Hannon Armstrong and Ameresco that are doing these renewable energy projects and funding. And And Ameresco, I think, is more of like a design build.

Speaker 5

But can you help people understand, is there a difference between, like, let's say, a farm and ranch I'm a farmer, I want to do a project, I build a barn or something. That's kind of I don't want to mischaracterize it all, but just to simplify it, maybe that's more of a one and done. From what I've seen with some of these renewable energy companies, maybe design build, maybe more project oriented, if you can get Kind of hooked in as a project financer on Project A, Is there an opportunity to be funding on B, C, D projects that they've been lining up going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes. So for individual projects, our Sweet spot is probably the projects that require $5,000,000 to $25,000,000 worth of debt where we're taking all of it. So that's going to be take 2x that, that's going to be a $10,000,000 to $50,000,000 solar project. That's going to be Somewhere in the range of 10 to 50 megawatt solar project covering Somewhere between 50 and 2 50 Acres. And so a lot of these are being done in rural America.

Speaker 2

Some are being done on warehouses, but we're always looking for that connection to rural America. And it could be because The buyer of the electricity is an electric co op or corporation that is serving rural America, it could be because it's located in rural America. So that's one part of it. Another part of it is the much larger deals where we may participate in the bank debt syndicate for that project. And you've seen that we've done that in a couple of very, very large wind projects, Again, set in rural America.

Speaker 2

The credit metrics are pretty much always the same. These are low investment grade BBB-BB plus credit metrics, Very well established, well used. We're not doing anything very different or creative. It's just the national outreach and focus on rural America. The strategic the companies you mentioned is examples of potential strategic partners.

Speaker 2

Yes, we are talking with And very current discussions. And you are correct in that, if they are serial developers And there are many others out there. It provides an opportunity to as long as we're competitive and responsive To become really a preferred supplier project finance debt and do project after project after project. And also provides an opportunity, and one of the names you mentioned is an example of this, To look at opportunities to do pools, fund pools of project finance loans that they may be doing. Very similar in a way to our AgVantage type bond underwriting.

Speaker 2

So yes, this is And a real opportunity for us. And there is an opportunity to build relationships that can deliver recurring business opportunity.

Speaker 5

Okay. And just to interject on your comments, those would have a power take off agreement as part of The financing structure?

Speaker 2

They do. We don't do speculative renewable energy projects where the power isn't committed to be sold to someone. So that's true for wind, that's true for solar. We're seeing heightened opportunity with anaerobic digesters where the Output is really renewable natural gas, getting the hedges right, so we lock in a key margin predictable margin on those is key. As we've said before, There's a growing convergence between energy and American agriculture and we want to be there.

Speaker 5

Okay, perfect. And then does that loan book reflect That balance of $327,000,000 are there customers that we've done multiple projects with in that number already?

Speaker 2

On the for developer owners, I don't know that there are There are sponsor owners in there that have multiple projects that we financed at the same time, but I don't think that there are Serial financings in there yet.

Speaker 5

Okay. I mean, so I don't want to put words in your mouth, but in theory that We could see an acceleration of growth if those relationships start to develop.

Speaker 2

Yes. The other recurring opportunity is on the large deals with syndicated banks. There are a handful of Japanese and European banks that lead the $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 syndicates. And we are beginning to do business with a number of them. And as we develop more of a reputation for them, That provides another opportunity to be a preferred partner with another financial institution in that case.

Speaker 5

Okay, perfect. Thanks for spending all and humoring me on all the renewable energy portfolio questions. I just think there's just a huge opportunity that It needs to be discussed and needs to be understood by shareholders. And last question, maybe more for Aparna. You had talked about the securitization cadence.

Speaker 5

It seems like we're getting to be doing something twice a year. So should we be expecting something in the back half of this year? And is that kind of what we're thinking and messaging to the market as we look towards 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, absolutely. We were successful in doing one this year. We've sort of been on a cadence of 1 per year so far. I think the rate environment has certainly slowed down as you can see in our numbers, the long term fixed rate Purchase of Farm and Ranch, which tend to be the best candidates for securitization. That said, the team is very actively Contemplating when we might do another one.

Speaker 3

And if it's not Q4, very likely, very early in Q1 of next year, we'd be targeting coming out with another issuance. We're also in active discussion about other assets. Now that we have a good sense of the investor appetite for rural assets in the securitization space, we're not ruling out Some of our assets within the rural infrastructure space. So that might be more of a longer term slower maturing strategy, but that's also in

Speaker 5

Okay. Once again, thank you for taking all my questions. Brad and Aparna, keep up the good work and the rest of the team, you're doing a great job. We just Got to get people understand what you're doing. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Brad Nordholm for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Good. Well, thank you all for the Questions and active participation in this call means a lot to us. If we haven't said it, let me just say it right now that we're very pleased, but not at all surprised By the strong results of the Q2. We've got a great business model. We have a crystal clear focus on our mission, our business purpose That goes from our Board to our all of our employees to our executive team.

Speaker 2

We have As a part of that, a very, very deep commitment to American agriculture and rural infrastructure. We emphasize that we've got a very well honed Asset liability management, credit, enterprise risk management disciplines across this organization. Our operations are getting tighter every day. I think that we have an outstanding team that's just getting stronger, that's getting better coordinated, that is getting more effective every day that we execute here. So in summary, the future is very bright.

Speaker 2

We appreciate your support. And as always, please reach back to us with any follow on questions that you have. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Q2 2023
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