Atkore Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 8, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning. My name is Jean Louis, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Atkore's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed in listen only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, John Dietzer, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations, thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined today by Bill Waltz, President and CEO as well as David Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and David. I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make projections or forward looking statements regarding future events or financial performance of the company. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties such that actual results may differ materially.

Speaker 1

Please refer to our SEC filings and today's press release, which identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward looking statements. In addition, any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA and any reference to EPS or adjusted EPS means adjusted diluted earnings per share. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted earnings per share are non GAAP measures. Reconciliations of non GAAP measures and a presentation of the most comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix to today's presentation. With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

Speaker 2

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Before we discuss the quarter, I want to briefly address an incident that occurred at one of our HDPE pipe facilities. On Sunday, There was a fire in the exterior yard of our United Polysystems facility in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where finished goods are stored. The health and safety of our employees in the local community is always our primary concern. I want to publicly thank the incredible efforts And no one was injured.

Speaker 2

In terms of stakeholder impact at this time, we do not expect this incident to impact our 2023 financial outlook With 7 HDPE facilities nationwide, we are confident in our ability to meet the majority of our customer orders and redirect production is needed. Now starting on Slide 3 and our results for the Q3. We delivered better than expected earnings performance in Q3. Volume in the quarter was up 2%, which is in line with our expectation for mid single digit volume growth for the full year as we anticipate volumes will ramp up higher in Our quarterly results compare to the all time record highs of the last year and reflect the pricing normalization we planned for and have seen in 2023. Year to date cash flow remains very strong, enabling us to execute our capital deployment strategy.

Speaker 2

During the Q3, we repurchased $147,000,000 of shares, bringing our year to date total share repurchases to $416,000,000 In June, we determined that we needed to change our accounting treatment of solar credits related to the Inflation Reduction Act, and David will cover details of the impact. We are encouraged by the performance in the 1st 3 quarters of fiscal year and have increased our full year outlook for adjusted EPS. The results released today reflect not only the strength and stability of our underlying business model, but the determination of our team We have structurally improved this business and we are demonstrating the sustainability of our earnings into the future. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 4, I want to address the change in accounting treatment of solar credit related to the Inflation Reduction Act that Bill mentioned. Previously, we have assumed we could use the Government Grant Accounting Model or GGAM regarding the transferability for a majority of the solar credits to our customers. However, in June, we determined that due to our September 30 year end for fiscal year 2023. We can no longer recognize these credits as a reduction of cost of sales.

Speaker 3

Instead, we'll recognize them as a benefit to our income tax provision. For FY 2024 and beyond, We will be using the government grant accounting model to record the benefits from these credits as a reduction of cost of sales. Under the GGAM method, we would have reported net sales and adjusted EBITDA in Q3 of $924,000,000 $291,000,000 respectively. In addition, our tax rate would have been 24% And our adjusted diluted EPS would have been $5.22 Regardless of the accounting framework, Q3 was a strong quarter that surpassed our expectations. Moving to our consolidated results on Slide 5.

Speaker 3

In the Q3, net sales were $919,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA was $270,000,000 We're pleased with our margin performance in the quarter with adjusted EBITDA margins of 29%. While this is down year over year versus Previous record highs, it still reflects the strength and resiliency of our business model. As I mentioned on the previous slide, The change in our accounting treatment for the solar credits associated with the IRA have a tax benefit in the 3rd quarter That lowered our effective tax rate to less than 9% since we recognized 3 quarters of the expected benefits in Q3. This lower tax rate helped contribute $0.50 to our higher than expected adjusted EPS of $5.72 Turning to Slide 6 and our consolidated bridges. Volume was up 2% with S and I up over 7% year over year.

Speaker 3

PVC volumes were down by mid single digits as expected when compared to our FY 2022 Q3 outperformance, resulting in unfavorable mix for the quarter. Excluding the PVC impact, Atkore's volume would have been up approximately 7 percent with a 30 plus percent incremental benefit. This gives us a lot of confidence in the strength of the entire business As we work our way through these normalization trends in our PVC related products. Regarding our PVC products, We saw continued sequential growth in Q3 with volume up 11% quarter over quarter. Moving to Slide 7 and our segment results.

Speaker 3

Margins compressed in our Electrical segment, driven by continued pricing normalization and the year over year volume declines in our PVC related products. Nonetheless, margins were better than expected and we are very pleased with the market's recognition of our service and value offer. In addition, our steel conduit products benefit from some recent one time supply chain challenges in the market that have now been resolved. Net sales declined in our S and I segment due to lower average selling prices, which largely reflects the year over year changes in our steel input costs. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins compressed on the S and I side, primarily due to the recognition of the solar credit adjustment to cost of sales.

Speaker 3

Under the GTAM method, we would have achieved a very strong 19% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter. This is robust performance, particularly given the business incurred several $1,000,000 of one time startup costs related to the new Hobart facility. Ramping up at a facility of this magnitude is never simple and we will still have some additional SARC costs to incur. We're very excited for the future of this plan. S and I volumes were up 7% in the quarter.

Speaker 3

This is primarily due 17% volume growth in the Electrical Infrastructure portion of our S and I segment. Moving to Slide 8. We continue to be pleased with the strength of our cash flow and balance sheet. Year to date, our cash flow from operating activities was 103% of our net income over the period and up 52% compared to the same period of fiscal 2022. As we continue to drive strong results against the record highs of last year, the strength of our cash flow and balance sheet provides an important foundation for our company's future.

Speaker 3

We invested more than $120,000,000 in capital expenditures this year with a large portion of that investment going to our facility expansions and growth initiatives that we believe will drive positive results for many years to come. With that, I'll turn it back to Bill.

Speaker 2

Thanks, David. We are pleased with how we've progressed through the year and we're excited for what lies ahead as we prepare to close out fiscal 2023 and look towards the future. Moving to our outlook on Slide 9, the sales of our solar products and associated tax credits that we discussed earlier has caused some variation in our current year projections. Therefore, the midpoint of our current outlook for adjusted EBITDA in Q4 is $220,000,000 Without this change in accounting, we would have been in a position to slightly increase our projections for the full year adjusted EBITDA versus the outlook provided back in May. Turning to Slide 10, we've illustrated these changes by comparing against the outlook for both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS under the previous methodology.

Speaker 2

Taking a step back, despite this variation between quarters and expectations, we are still raising adjusted EPS for the year. I'm incredibly proud of the team, strategy and processes we have in place. With the strength of our balance sheet, Growth trajectory and leadership position in the market, I'm excited as we look into the future and remain focused on achieving our long term goals. With that, we'll turn it over to the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Chris Danker of Loop Capital Markets, your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Chris.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Chris.

Speaker 4

So I guess first off and forgive me if I'm a little slow on the accounting, but Can you just walk me through it seems like the G GAM is A benefit into the Q4, but it was a hindrance in the Q3 in terms of EPS. I think I'm just misunderstanding Why that is if we're using the same accounting in both 3Q and 4Q? Can you just kind of like frame that up for me again?

Speaker 3

Sure. I'll take this one, Chris. So basically, when we switched the models, we had to make a year to date adjustment. So therefore, we have 3 quarters' worth of adjustment in Q3. And that's why you see the impact different in the Actual Q3 numbers and the Q4 numbers.

Speaker 3

I think a couple of just quick points on this because I'm sure that everyone's going to have some questions. Basically, the reason why we changed this was because of our fiscal year. If you read the bill and you realize that our fiscal year obviously ends in September, The credits that are generated from the IRA during this period of time for us are not transferable. It will be transferable in the future. It would have been transferable if we would have had a calendar year end, but we just have this Unusual period of time here in our FY 'twenty three due to our fiscal year were there not.

Speaker 3

So therefore, we had to go back and change the accounting and you'll see A negative impact overall for the full year to EBITDA, a slight improvement to adjusted EPS. I think going forward into next year when we switch back to the other model because they will be transferable, I think it will make a lot more sense because we'll have a slight benefit

Speaker 4

Thank you so much for the quick breakdown. And just as a follow-up here, can you comment maybe on what you're seeing in the Channel in terms of inventory and stocking levels, I mean, I think you were mentioning in the past is we're looking pretty healthy to even lean in some cases. Is it still the case out there?

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, Bill here. Yes, I would say it's healthy to well, I'm not healthy. It's lean. In other words, I don't Expect anyone to buy ahead. So that should be a good thing even really as we get into the spring of next fiscal year Because at this stage, us and quite frankly, our competitors are shipping basically on time for our type of product line.

Speaker 2

So Therefore, there is no need in the channel, but any type of inventory adjustments I think are behind us. So we're Shipping well and as we mentioned during the call, we expect mid single digits for the full year And that means a really healthy volume in Q4 coming up here.

Operator

Thank you. Your next Question comes from the line of Deane Dray of RBC. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, Deane. Good morning, Deane.

Speaker 5

Hey, I really appreciate all the bridges that you've provided to kind of keep it on an apples to apples basis, especially Page 9, Kind of giving us what the midpoint would have been for 4Q and for the year. So appreciate that. Just In the spirit of transparency, can you I know you're not in ready to give 2024 guidance, but any color on COGS Into 2024 because of the GGAM model, it would be helpful for us to start Having a framework for that accounting change for next year as well.

Speaker 3

Yes. So basically what I would suggest Yes, if you look at our year to date through the 1st two quarters, we had a little bit of solar Tax impact into COGS. So going into next year, it will be slightly favorable to that because we will have one Slightly more credits because we have the new plant online, so on and so forth. And then we'll be switching back to the DTM law, which will be a little bit more consistent with What it would have been if you were to add Q1 and Q2 together. I mean, probably offsetting some of that will be some pricing and all these sort of things that We'll give more clarity on in November.

Speaker 2

And then, Dean, I know not that I'll defer financial questions, but throughout all this, At the end of the day, we're raising EPS for the year and we're still comfortable with $20.25 in the $18 plus EPS. So We are running ahead throughout this changing in accounting methods through a fire that's already been contained and we're going to be up in That facility we anticipate in a couple of days. So the Atkore business system and leadership, they're moving straight ahead no matter what.

Speaker 5

All right. Appreciate all that. So then we can set aside the accounting noise and talk about some of the fundamentals in the quarter if we could. I'm Really interested in hearing more specifics around pricing normalization because that's probably been the biggest area of inbound calls that we get. So Bill, just frame for us end market demand in the quarter, Any changes on the competition side, including geographic and how this any Input costs and how those factored into pricing, which ended up being better than what we thought it would what we had Yes.

Speaker 2

So Dean, I think to your last part of your question and statement, it was better than we anticipated. We're still going to face some headwinds as we go Forward, but it's better than anticipated. I think David covered in the prepared remarks, if you pull out PVC, even in this Quarter, we were up 7%. So I want to emphasize, compliment David, the management team here. We predicted exactly how this is going Sure.

Speaker 2

But well within everything we've anticipated. A, we're doing better than we anticipated. You see that again, I'm talking before all this Accounting stuff, I'm talking directional here. So anybody correct them off. But where we guided 250 and we delivered 290 before the accounting changes.

Speaker 2

So we had a Really strong quarter, up 7% when you pull out the PVC, pricing is doing better than anticipated. And even with all those things, We're going to have a really strong Q4 volume. Now that I think is more attributable to us. The markets are good, But it is everything from the solar mill coming up in the quarter to other initiatives playing out. So we are definitely doing our self help In addition to reasonable market.

Speaker 2

So, I'm excited as I have ever been, Dean, for the future.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Andy. Good morning, Andy.

Speaker 6

Bill, so you mentioned you haven't seen destocking, but other, let's call it, loose Peers have. So maybe if you could remind us sort of what's differentiating you in the marketplace? How would you characterize res versus non res Volumes. And then I do think you modestly lowered your outlook for 2023 sales from 8 to 10, down from 5 to What is that? I know there's a small impact from GGM in there.

Speaker 2

Yes. So great question, Andy. With regards to others, You have to then part like look at their volume in regards to their products. In other words, Sandy, we if went back a year ago or something or 9 months ago, I forgot precise time, would have talked about destocking. But I think again, that's behind us in our product lines.

Speaker 2

So we're good there. Residential is weaker than the other markets. Sure and so forth. It's obviously going really well. Manufacturing is going well.

Speaker 2

And I think the best is yet to come as we go forward. So again, all within what we And then in regards to revenue, I'll kind of turn it over to David, if

Speaker 3

you look at the volume, it's in line with exactly what we've been saying. It's just if you see a low top line difference, that's going to be just The commodity impact of what we had expected versus kind of where it's ending up. So to me focusing on that volume number is really important and it's Right in line what we've been predicting.

Speaker 6

And that's helpful guys. And maybe to that end, can you give us a little more color into electrical adjusted EBITDA margin performance? You talked about a little bit guys, but your margins flash sequentially, just hasn't degraded really at all in the last couple of quarters Despite increasing pricing pressure, so is it simply costs are dropping just as fast for Atkore? And how much is increased productivity helping so that maybe Staying margins here well into the 30s moving forward?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, Andy, maybe we're conservative there. But everything you said is yes, We are driving productivity in different ways. Obviously, we're hitting having inflation in our facilities with operators and so forth. But The team is doing good there.

Speaker 2

Commodity costs have dropped and not as much as pricing. So that's doing well. I think the mid-30s is probably too high as you go into next year, but we really haven't set guidance yet. But I would say is through all that To earlier statements I think I made when Dean was asking a question. It's going to be a good year here.

Speaker 2

We just raised our guidance for the year And we're still comfortable with the 2025 outlook and we really do look forward to November talking about, but I'm not going to foreshadow Next fiscal year at this moment. So hopefully your follow-up Andy, but we're in a good spot.

Speaker 6

Yes, no, helpful Bill. And then one more for me. Just color Volume was still good, volume growth was still good, maybe decelerated a little bit. And I thought your solar capacity is starting to ramp in, in Q3. So what do you see moving forward in that segment?

Speaker 2

Yes, that will be the stronger of the 2 divisions because of the self help. We have other things happening in the Electrical division from a growth perspective That just will probably hit more in fiscal year 2024, but the solar mill literally just started making shipments here like in the last month. And as you could expect, there's Both are ramp up from 1 shift to 2 shifts to 3 shifts and things like that. But that will help drive when hopefully you guys Get a sense that I and the management team are bullish on volume in Q4. Some of that will be our self help, including solar.

Speaker 6

Very helpful, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Appreciate it, Andy. Thank you, Andy.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Chris Moore of CIS Securities. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 7

All right. Just we're hearing from some people That 5 gs CapEx spending slowing a little bit at carriers, I'm just curious if you're seeing that and maybe how would you characterize The advancements in HTP over the last 12 to 18 months, any kind of negatives or positive surprises there?

Speaker 2

Yes, very optimistic for the future. Right now, a little bit slower. How much what I Feel, one of the big things is we have and I go back every number you at least I hear seems to be different. But directionally, Part of the Inflation Reduction Act was $65,000,000,000 So if someone sees $62,000,000 versus $65,000,000 with what's called the bead Broadband access and so forth. Unlike other infrastructure where the government and the states already have a way to allocate that money, This is the first time the U.

Speaker 2

S. Government has had to deal with allocating out funds in regards to how do you do fiber optic to the home. So that money hitting the states is a little bit delayed than what they expect, the infamous trouble ready we've all experienced over the last decade. The good news to that in my mind, Chris, is again, I keep going back and saying we just raised guidance. And to your point, TPE isn't as strong as we had anticipated at this stage, but it's still coming.

Speaker 2

So it's just a question of halfway through next fiscal year, You add what we performed this year, you add that on top of it and that starts to get where the management team is confident And where we look out to fiscal year 2025. So again, we're cranking full cylinders. We're investing great cash flow. And you are right, short term HDP, we would expect that a year ago to be slightly stronger.

Speaker 7

Got it. Very helpful. And my next one, I know you're we're not giving guidance here. We'll do that in November. Maybe just big picture, you look at calendar 2024 versus 2023, are there things that might concern you a little more in 2024 or things that actually might be better in 2024 versus 2023.

Speaker 2

I think I'm slightly more optimistic for 2024 for two reasons. One reason is a lot of the markets like residential or supposed to lease coordinated Dodge bounced back. I'm looking at Dodge forecast that had the markets down 10% for this year and start getting single 6% I mean the level of false precision here And up to like 10% in 25%. So we get those markets starting to come back as interest rates drop, those type of things. Now you can debate those.

Speaker 2

And then the biggest thing for Atkore, I keep going back to is our own, I'll use the word self help, but we have deployed, if you go back over the last 2 years, A lot of capital into growth initiatives, our one order, one delivery, one invoice. We have a lot of key customers that love that service model. So as we go forward, both from our ability to charge A higher premium for that service, our delivery, other initiatives like solar and more things to come, We are optimistic for everything we're doing here and I think that's what gives us confidence for the future.

Speaker 7

Very helpful. I will leave it there. Thanks guys.

Speaker 2

Thanks Chris.

Operator

Thank you. We have another follow-up question from the line of Deane Dray of RBC. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. A question for David. Just To kind of take us through cash flow for the quarter, some of the dynamics, I know CapEx is higher. Is there anything else in working capital you'd want to call out?

Speaker 5

It was seasonally lower conversion than what we typically see, but the CapEx can certainly swing that.

Speaker 3

Yes, I would say that the CapEx swing and I would also say that we had some buildup of inventory as you can imagine, Dean, Going into the start up of our new solar plant. So we had several weeks of inventory ahead of that start up and you really haven't seen The increase in volume yet. So that was probably the 2 things I would point to Q3.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then for Bill, some commentary if you could about July As well as what are the indicators on kind of tracking to mid single digit volume growth? And if you could highlight what verticals are driving that? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. So without getting too specific into this quarter, I would Dean, good quarter or good month without any more specific, but enough as we're sitting here on August whatever the date is That kind of our unprepared remarks are that we're still very comfortable with the overall Atkore mid single digit. And if you did the weighted math on that through 3 quarters, that means a pretty strong Q4 here. So to earlier questions, I think inventory has been worked through in The quarters before us and distributors and contractors are buying as needed, so good there. And then the verticals that are really strong, I think I mentioned earlier, but anything regarding infrastructure.

Speaker 2

So therefore, even manufacturing companies. Again, we don't have I'll be very transparent as always with everybody. We sell to distributors that sell to manufacturers. So we have a good feel, But some of it I just rely like you would on Dodge and looking on manufacturing is up 12% at least according to Dodge here in this Calendar year. So things like that institutional spend still from the stimulus monies are strong.

Speaker 2

And obviously things around utilities and So forth are really strong. And then there's a lot of things I think we'll talk about more in the future as we work with what we call Kind of global mega projects, but just imagine chip manufacturers and things like that across the globe, we have a really good relationship with some of those customers.

Speaker 3

So Dean, the only thing I would add is in this market right now, it does seem like week to week there's more variability than typical. So it just I don't know why that is. It's just I don't know if it's the labor constraint or the supply chain issues in other pieces of the electrical market. But July was, as Bill mentioned, good and we expect a strong Q4.

Speaker 5

Got it. And just last one for me. On capital allocation, like seeing the buybacks, you still have plenty of authorization left. Where and how might M and A fit Into the equation over the next couple of quarters?

Speaker 2

Yes, the pipeline is good. If I was to rank, there's not we're having a great Capital allocation, I had a great board discussion on that here just last week. It's a mixture of 4 or 5 things, Dean. So obviously, internal investment where we're Still looking at $200,000,000 give or take on CapEx for new organic growth and productivity. We have a pipeline That's very active.

Speaker 2

I will say we have deals that are at least I won't get too specific here, but numerous deals under confidentiality agreements. We have an active group mining other things here that are all strategic without in any way having any type of deal fever Again, our performance as we've shown last November has been phenomenal on deals. And then we'll continue to, as you mentioned, stock buyback. So And we'll get into a much more in-depth conversation in November around capital allocation.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks again, Dean.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Bill Walt for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

As we conclude, let me summarize my key takeaways from today's discussion. First, we still expect mid single digit volume growth for the full year as we are expecting a ramp up in volume in Q4. 2nd, we are increasing our expectations for full year adjusted EPS. 3rd, We're pleased with the strength of our cash flow and balance sheet, which are enabling us to continue to invest in our business. Our solid financial position and capital deployment plan are the foundation of our future growth and we remain confident and our long term outlook.

Speaker 2

Before we end the call, there is one final item that I'd like to share. Last month, I celebrated my 10 year anniversary with the company and David will be celebrating his 5 year anniversary with Atkore next week. As a management team, we are truly humbled by the hard work and dedication of all of our employees and are in awe of their accomplishments. It's because of their commitment to our values that we believe that that suggests to come for Atkore. With that, Thank you for your support and interest in Atkore, and we look forward to speaking with you during our next quarterly call.

Speaker 2

This concludes the call for today.

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