Oracle Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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September 11, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Everyone, and welcome to Oracle's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. And now I would like to turn the conference over to Ken Bond. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Lisa, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Oracle's Q1 fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. A copy of the press release and financial tables, which includes a GAAP to non GAAP reconciliation and other supplemental financial information can be viewed and downloaded from our Investor Relations website. Additionally, a list of many customers who purchased Oracle Cloud Services or went live On Oracle Cloud recently, we'll be available from our Investor Relations website. On the call today are Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, Larry Ellison And Chief Executive Officer, Safra Katz. As a reminder, today's discussion will include forward looking statements, Including predictions, expectations, estimates or other information that might be considered forward looking.

Speaker 1

Throughout today's discussion, we will present some important factors Relating to our business, which may potentially affect these forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are also subject to risks and uncertainties That may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today. As a result, we caution you from placing undue reliance on these forward looking statements, And we encourage you to review our most recent reports, including our 10 ks and 10 Q and any applicable amendments for a complete discussion of these factors And other risks that may affect our future results or the market price of our stock. And finally, we are not obligating ourselves To revise our results or these forward looking statements in light of new information or future events. Before taking questions, we'll begin with a few prepared remarks.

Speaker 1

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Safra.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ken, and good afternoon, everyone. As you know, 22 years ago today was a traumatic day for our country. Like many of you, it feels like yesterday When the country lost nearly 3,000 souls and we at Oracle, we lost 11 employees. I remember exactly where I was when the tragedy unfolded and it is still So hard speaking about it even all these years later. Today we honor and remember each one of the victims and heroes And we hope that their memories are a blessing to all of us.

Speaker 2

Now before I go to our Q1 numbers, I thought it would help to start with some of the things that are going on at Oracle that you'll be hearing about over the next couple of weeks. Next week, we have Oracle Cloud World, which will showcase the latest innovations, Including AI on OCI, the progress of Oracle Autonomous Database, Our multi cloud strategy, the use of Oracle Analytics throughout our portfolio To drive better decision making and the use of generative AI to differentiate Fusion, NetSuite And our industry application. Now Cloud World is our marquee event each year where current and prospective customers Take time out of their busy calendars to join us in person and share their experiences. We know that there are no better spokespeople for our products and services than our existing customers. Our innovation results directly from our development teams interacting with customers anticipate and build the next generation of products and services.

Speaker 2

Some of the customers you will hear from next week Including NVIDIA, Uber, Ascension Health, Cohere and many, many, many, many more. You'll also hear from our Expanding set of strategic partners that are driving the Oracle ecosystem. And this includes Amdocs, VMware, Microsoft. Overall, it's remarkable the interest We are getting from the ISV community to work with Oracle. There are a lot of discussions going on And you will see more announcements shortly.

Speaker 2

From a financial standpoint, we see this customer and partner ecosystem As a leading indicator of our income statement, I've been talking with you about our revenue acceleration for some time now. In Q1, our remaining performance obligations or RPO climbed to nearly 65,000,000,000 With the portion excluding Cerner up 11%, we have now signed several deals for OCI Greater than $1,000,000,000 in total value. In the 1st week of Q2, we booked an additional 1 point $5,000,000,000 in business, which isn't even included in the Q1 numbers. Approximately 49% Of total RPO is expected to be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months. My point here is that customer momentum is continuing to build.

Speaker 2

This momentum is turning into bookings And that gives me the confidence that our annual revenue growth will continue to accelerate moving forward. Now to the Q1 results, which I remind you I am announcing on day 11, only because day 8 when we were ready It was a Friday and I know none of you like that. So this quarter we saw a modest currency tailwind. But as always, I'll discuss our financials using constant currency growth rates. Clearly, Q1 was another great quarter With total revenue at the midpoint of guidance and earnings per share $0.02 above the high end of guidance And our cloud growth was 29%.

Speaker 2

Total cloud revenue, SaaS and IS, excluding Cerner It was $4,000,000,000 up 29%. Now including Cerner, total cloud revenue was up 29% also At $4,600,000,000 and with our IS revenue at $1,500,000,000 up 64% And SaaS revenue of $3,100,000,000 up 17%. Total cloud And license support revenue for the quarter was $9,500,000,000 up 12%, Driven again by our strategic cloud applications, autonomous database and our Gen 2 OCI, Application subscription revenues, which includes product support, were 4,500,000,000 Up 11%. Our strategic back office SaaS applications now have annualized revenue Of $6,900,000,000 and they grew 20%. Infrastructure subscription revenues, Which includes license support were $5,100,000,000 up 14%.

Speaker 2

Infrastructure Cloud Services revenue was up 64%, Excluding legacy hosting services, Gen2 Infrastructure Cloud Services revenue Grew 72% with an annualized revenue of 5,600,000,000 OCI consumption revenue was up 91%. Exadata Cloud Services revenue Was up 46% and Autonomous Database was up 42%. Database subscription services, which includes license support were up 6%, Highlighted by cloud database services, which were up 44%, Very importantly, as on premise databases migrate to the cloud, we expect these cloud database services Will be the 3rd leg of revenue growth alongside strategic SaaS and Gen 2 OCI Cloud Services. Software license revenues were $800,000,000 down 11% Following an amazing Q1 last year of 19% growth, which made it a tough compare this year. So in all, total revenue for the quarter were $12,400,000,000 Up 8%, including Cerner, up 9%, excluding Cerner.

Speaker 2

Shifting to margins. The gross margins for cloud services and license support was 78% With IS gross margins improving substantially from last year and while we've continued to build data center Capacity. We've also seen our IS margins go higher as these new cloud regions fill up. We monitor our expenses very carefully to ensure our gross margin percentages expand As we scale up, to this point, gross profit dollars of cloud services and license support Grew 9% in Q1. Non GAAP operating income was $5,100,000,000 Up 12% from last year.

Speaker 2

The operating margin was 41%, Up from 39% last year, as we continue to benefit from economies of scale in the cloud And drive Cerner profitability to Oracle standards, we will not only continue to grow operating income, But we will also grow the operating margin percentage. The non GAAP tax rate for the quarter It was 18.8 percent and non GAAP EPS was $1.19 in U. S. Dollars, Up 16% in USD, up 14% in constant currency. The GAAP EPS was $0.86 in USD.

Speaker 2

At quarter end, we had nearly $12,100,000,000 in cash and marketable securities. The short term deferred revenue balance was $11,100,000,000 up 5%. Operating cash flow for the Q1 was up 9% to $7,000,000,000 While free cash flow was up 21 percent to 5,700,000,000 And I expect that we will see very good results in our free cash flow for the rest of the year. Over the last four quarters, operating cash flow was $17,700,000,000 up 68% And free cash flow was $9,500,000,000 up 70 6 percent. Capital expenditures were $8,300,000,000 over the last four quarters and we're clearly beginning To see the cash flow benefits stemming from our cloud transformation.

Speaker 2

CapEx was $1,300,000,000 in Q1 as we continue to build capacity for bookings And our customers growing needs. Given the demand we have and see in the pipeline, I expect the fiscal year 2024 CapEx will be similar to this past year's CapEx. As always, we remain careful to pace our investments appropriately And in line with booking trends, which is why our gross margins are up in our cloud business. We now have 64 cloud regions live with 44 public cloud regions around the world And another 6 being built, 12 of these public cloud regions interconnect with Microsoft Azure. We also have 9 dedicated regions live and 11 more planned, 9 secondurity regions and 12 EU sovereign regions live with increasing demand For more of each and of course we have many, many cloud of customer implementations.

Speaker 2

The cost advantages, sizing flexibility and deployment optionality of our cloud region Continue to make us so compelling in the marketplace to customers. As we've said many, many times before, we're committed to returning value to our shareholders through technical innovation, Strategic acquisitions, stock repurchases, prudent use of debt and a dividend. This quarter, We repurchased 1,300,000 shares for a total of $150,000,000 In addition, we paid out dividends of $3,900,000,000 over the last 12 months and the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share. Now before I dive into Q2 guidance, I'd like to share some thoughts on what I see longer term. For my earlier remarks, we have a great line of sight into the trajectory of the business given the bookings momentum.

Speaker 2

We are extremely confident about our revenue acceleration for the year, even though in any quarter there may be small fluctuations. Because we have far more demand than we can supply, our biggest challenge is building data centers as quickly as possible. In addition, we are in an accelerated transition of Cerner to the cloud. This transition is resulting in some near Headwinds to the Cerner growth rate as customers move from license purchases, which are recognized upfront To cloud subscriptions, which are recognized ratably. Again, excluding Cerner, I remain committed To accelerating our total revenue growth rate this fiscal year as well as maintaining our current The high cloud growth rates for the year.

Speaker 2

And as you will hear at our Financial Analyst Meeting next week, We remain firmly committed to our fiscal 2026 financial goals. Let me now turn to my guidance for Q2, which I'll review on a non GAAP basis. If currency exchange rates Remain the same as they are now. Currency should have a 2% positive effect on total revenue and a $0.03 Positive effect on EPS in Q2. However, the actual currency impact may be different.

Speaker 2

Here we go. Total revenues including Cerner are expected to grow from 3% to 5% In constant currency and are expected to grow 5% to 7% in USD at today's rate. Total revenue excluding Cerner are expected to grow from 6% to 8% in constant currency And expected to grow 8% to 10% in USD. Total cloud revenue, Excluding Cerner, again, I give you these numbers so you can see the mainline business Is expected to grow from 27% to 29% in constant currency and is expected to grow 29% To 31% in USD, non GAAP EPS is expected to grow between 5% To 9% and be between $1.27 $1.31 in constant currency. Non GAAP EPS is expected to grow between 7% to 11% and be between $1.30 $1.34 in USD.

Speaker 2

My EPS guidance For Q2 assumes a tax rate of 19%. However, one time tax events And with that, I'll turn it over to Larry for his comments.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Safra. So is generative AI the most important new computer technology ever? Maybe we're about to find out. Self driving cars, computer designed antiviral drugs, Voice user interfaces. Generative AI is changing the automobile industry, the pharmaceutical industry, How people communicate with their computers, generative AI is changing everything.

Speaker 3

As of today, AI development companies have signed contracts to purchase more than $4,000,000,000 of AI training capacity in Oracle's Generation 2 Cloud. That's twice as much AI training As we had booked at the end of the last Q4, I'm also very pleased to announce that XAI Has signed a contract to do training in Oracle's Gen 2 Cloud. The largest AI technology companies and the leading AI startups continue to expand their business With Oracle for one simple reason. Oracle's RDMA interconnected NVIDIA superclusters Train AI models at twice the speed and much less than half the cost of other clouds. But growth in our AI Cloud Infrastructure business is not the only exciting news we have to report at Oracle.

Speaker 3

Our cloud applications business is doing quite well and it's about to get even better. In the current quarter, we expect our Cerner Health business to be awarded 2 large new contracts With a total value of over $1,000,000,000 and I'm now able to announce That all 9 utility companies owned by Berkshire Hathaway are in the process of replacing All their existing ERP systems and standardizing on Oracle's Fusion Cloud Applications. Let me conclude with a few words about our database business and our upcoming announcement with Microsoft later this week. We will be substantially expanding our existing multi cloud partnership with Microsoft By making it easier for Microsoft Azure customers to buy and use The latest Oracle Cloud database technology in combination with Microsoft Azure Cloud Services. Satya and I will discuss the details of our expanding partnership at Microsoft headquarters in Redmond on 14th.

Speaker 3

Please tune in and thank you. Back to you, Sabra.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Larry. And Maybe Ken, we could start taking questions at this point.

Speaker 1

Absolutely. And before we do that, Lisa, just one quick clarification That we currently have 2 EU sovereign regions is live with more to come. Lisa, please pull the audience for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our first question from Brad Zelnick with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks very much and congrats on the strong start to the year. Larry, I think it's fair to say you understand the laws of data gravity better than anyone and you've monetized this fundamental concept as well as anyone over the years. And I recently heard someone say we're moving from a world of data gravity to one of AI gravity. And I'm not sure exactly what that means or if they even knew what that meant.

Speaker 4

But With AI and other use cases attracting more and more data to central clouds, with many vendors preaching data sharing instead of what used to be making Copies of things and keeping them synchronized. Does AI plus cloud in any way break what we've always understood about data gravity? What does that mean for Oracle?

Speaker 3

Well, you can't build any of these AI models Without enormous amounts of training data, so if anything, what AI generative AI has shown That the big issue about training one of these models is just getting that this vast amount of data Ingested into your GPU supercluster, it is a huge data problem in the sense You need so much data. To train OpenAI to train ChatGPT 3.5, They read the entire public Internet. They read all of it, Wikipedia. They read everything. They ingested everything.

Speaker 3

And to specialize, when you take a something like CHAP GPT 4.0 and you want to specialize it, You need specialized training data from electronic health records to help doctors Diagnose and treat cancer, let's say. And we have partners, imaging, for example, that is ingesting huge amounts of image data To train their AI models, we have Verona, another partner of ours in AI, ingesting huge amounts of electronic health records To train their models, AI doesn't work without getting access to and ingesting enormous amounts of data. So in terms of a shift away from data or a change in gravity to AI, AI is utterly dependent upon vast amounts of training data. Trillions of elements went into building CHAT GPT 3.5, multiple times that for CHAT GPT 4.0 because you had to deal with all the image data and ingest all of that to train image recognition. So we think this is very good for our database business.

Speaker 3

And Oracle's new vector database It will contain highly specialized training data like electronic health records, While keeping that data anonymized and private, yet still training the specialized models They can help doctors improve their diagnostic capability and their treatment prescriptions for cancer And heart disease and all sorts of other diseases. So we think it's a boon to our business And we are now getting into the deepwater of the information age. Nothing has changed about that. The demands on data are getting stronger and more important.

Speaker 4

Thank you so much for your perspective, Larry.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Mark Murphy with JPMorgan.

Speaker 5

Thank you so much. So Larry, companies are starting to understand that OCI has a very fundamentally different architecture Ben, anything else out there in the market, because of the non blocking low latency network design, I'm wondering if you think it's possible to actually pull farther ahead through some of your other initiatives. For instance, The Azure Interconnect, it sounds like you're going to expand that. Having more regions, running a stronger database, Providing greater isolation, just wondering if you think there's a possibility of extending the lead?

Speaker 3

Well, again, we have we're on our 2nd generation of data center and our 2nd generation of cloud. Now a lot of people noticed that we were a little bit late to the party, but that's because we moved from a 1st generation, which we were not very happy with To a second generation, which we think solved a lot of problems. The other cloud companies have not yet solved. So the non blocking ultrafast RDMA network is not only useful for training AI models, It's useful for almost everything. It's certainly useful for building a much faster database.

Speaker 3

It's useful for In terms of the automation level we have in our data centers, our data centers are 100% automated. They configure themselves. They run themselves. We don't have a lot of labor. Now that saves us a huge amount of money, a lot of labor costs is saved.

Speaker 3

But the biggest advantage is, if you don't have human beings involved, you don't have human labor, you don't have human errors, you don't have mistakes. You can ensure security. Most security problems are caused by people that make mistakes or people that engage in mischief. We don't have that in our data center. That's another huge advantage.

Speaker 3

Our data centers are because They're identical. The only way we could automate them was to make them all the same and they vary only by scale. There are big ones and small ones, but they're They all have the same hardware pieces and the same software pieces. They all have the same automation. And that automation allows us To put these data centers in very small countries, we expect to have many, many more data centers than Any other cloud provider, but we also put those data centers at customers.

Speaker 3

Nomura Research, NRI, which resells Oracle Cloud capacity in Japan has 2 dedicated regions and are building 2 more. They run the Tokyo Stock Exchange. I don't know of any clouds that are running stock exchanges other than ours. And again, it's because of the Extreme reliability and security that we get with all of the automation that's included with our data center. So We have cost advantages, we have performance advantages, we have security advantages, and that's why we're growing much faster than any of the other hyperscalers.

Speaker 5

Thank you very much.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Raimo Lenschow with Barclays Capital.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Larry, you mentioned Berkshire and then moving over to Fusion. I just wanted to talk more in a more bigger picture on The back office systems like in the olden days back office you wouldn't touch in kind of tougher times because you have a big complex project. But you guys are still kind of growing this nicely with over 20%. Like what are you seeing there?

Speaker 6

And do you see a change in pipeline, Change in customer interest of doing something there. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, the back office in the cloud is very different than the back And we have a big advantage that we are by far and away the biggest, I don't know, 95% of the Cloud ERP market, in terms of actual live customers using it. And we have an important partnership with JPMorgan Chase. And we'll be announcing some more partnerships in the financial community of the upcoming cloud world where We automate a lot of e commerce, B2B e commerce right in the cloud. So What is B2B e Commerce between 2 Oracle Cloud customers, 2 Oracle ERP Cloud customers?

Speaker 3

It's one Oracle procurement system talking to another Oracle order management system and financing the transaction through their bank. We automate that entirely in the cloud. If your bank is JPMorgan Chase, they originate the loan Right along with your purchase, it's e commerce for B2B with banking and Shipping and insurance all included and rolled together. No one we've done a great job as an industry Automating e commerce for B2C, I mean Amazon, Walmart, others have done a brilliant job in that. We've been doing that for a long time.

Speaker 3

We have not got the equivalent in B2B Commerce because B2B transactions are much more complex. In the cloud, you can get all the parties together, The shippers, the insurance company, the manufacturers, the purchasers, and we can automate that entirely within The Oracle Cloud, one ERP system talking to another, talking to their bank, talking to their insurance, doing a loan origination, Getting it shipped and insured. So we make doing business much easier for our customers When they move to a modern cloud ERP system versus the on premise ERP system that came before.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Mark Moerdler with Bernstein.

Speaker 4

Thank you so much for taking my question. The top of mind questions I'm getting are related to AI in general as you'd expect. And more specifically as it relates to Oracle, what the impact of AI will be on OCI Gen 2. Two related parts to the question. The first is the profitability of AI supercomputers and whether some clients try to tell me it's low calorie, empty calorie revenue Or can you maintain margins as this business grows?

Speaker 4

And the second part is about the Oracle ecosystem and is it strong enough that as workloads transition from model Training to inferencing and grounding, could AI compute create a revenue air pocket or a Zeaconess system strong enough so you don't have that? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Well, if you're you're constantly training these models. Keep in mind, you have to bring in new data if you're in obviously in the health In the legal field, new cases are being judged, new research is being published all the time. And for your AI models to be relevant, they have to be up to date. So it's not that you train and then do nothing but inferencing thereafter. So your training and your inferencing sit right next to each other.

Speaker 3

As long as we can do this stuff twice as fast as everybody else, That's on the by the way, not just on the training side, that's also on the inferencing side. Then we're going to be half the cost or better. So we think we're going to be very, very competitive across the board, whether it's training or an inferencing. So we're pretty confident that we've got a cost performance advantage. Again, if you run twice as fast in the cloud, You cost half as much because you pay by the hour.

Speaker 3

So the performance advantage is really an enormous cost advantage for us. We don't see that going away anytime soon. And it applies to inferencing as well as training. Now as far as GPUs, is it are GPUs a low margin business? Not for 100% automated Cloud with very, very low costs.

Speaker 3

We think in some cases, our prices for GPU training, which are very profitable by the way, For us, but are often lower our prices are lower than the costs of other hyperscalers doing the training.

Speaker 4

Thank you. That's very helpful.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 4

Excellent. Thank you guys and

Speaker 1

thank you for taking the question.

Speaker 4

I wanted to drill in on Cerner. This was the 1 year anniversary of that acquisition. And maybe from Larry, get an update on where we are with modernizing that solution and modernizing that product and basically whether Cerner has kind of lived up to your expectations thus far. And then maybe for Saffray, if we could dig in To the expense synergy side of the equation, you guys have done a great job increasing margins on a year on year basis in this quarter. How much is left to go within Cerner in getting that margin profile to match the broader Oracle margin profile?

Speaker 3

Okay. I'll talk about the progress on taking the existing Millennium's Cerner software and moving it to new Millennium. Basically rewriting that software a piece at a time, by the way. It's not going to be a big rip and replace at all. There's a 2 phase process with Cerner.

Speaker 3

The first thing is to get the lift and shift and get the existing system hardened, which we've done and moving Customers to the cloud, which we're in the process of moving everybody to the cloud. That will give them better performance, better security, and new features will then start Showing up with the system. And so there's a 2 phase shift to the cloud. We're well on our way. The next is replace feature after feature after feature of the older Cerner system with a new Cerner system, new millennium, which we are not coding in Java like we usually do.

Speaker 3

The new Cerner system is being generated. As you know, generative AI generates code. We have an application generator called Apex and we are not writing Code for the new Cerner, we are generating that code in Apex, and it's going extremely well. Again, one of the great things about code generators is they don't make mistakes. Well, either they make the same mistake over and over again or they don't Once you fixed the mistake, you fixed it everywhere.

Speaker 3

So the code we're using a code generator and To write the new features in Cerner and it's coming along very, very nicely. Also on the business side of things, Again, we think that Cerner business is going to get stronger and stronger. Again, Safra made the point. The old Cerner business, you'd sell license. So you sell a big contract and you get a big chunk of revenue in that quarter.

Speaker 3

Our new business model, as you know, is cloud. So we get a big Cerner award and we get that money now over time rather than all upfront. So that's, if you will, a bit of a revenue headwind, but the Cerner business is doing extraordinarily well.

Speaker 2

And on the expense side, we still have a ways to go, but I think it will become More obvious to you next quarter the changes we've made as they play out through the income statement more And so you'll have a better comparison Q2 to Q2, which will be a Full non deal quarter for you to look at. But we you know us, we We're always looking to save as much as we can and to spend as little, while still Really transforming Cerner into a modern system in its entirety.

Speaker 3

Let me just reinforce what Sakhra just said. We love to save money. One of the things we did with our data centers As we automated them, we saved labor costs and we saved, We have better security and better reliability because we eliminated human error. With Cerner, the rewrite of Cerner, it's not Armies of programmers that are going to be rewriting this. We are generating the new Millennium software using Apex.

Speaker 3

And that's also going to save us a lot of human labor and generate higher quality code and higher quality user interfaces and better security All at once.

Speaker 4

Helpful. Thank you, guys.

Operator

We'll take our last question from John DiFucci with Guggenheim.

Speaker 7

Thank you. My question is for Safra, I think. Safford, if the organic constant currency cloud growth was in line with what you did last year and what you want to do for this year at 29%, While license, though it was a difficult comp, it was a bit weaker at least than the Street was expecting. And I also we also realized that Cloud revenue for the same amount of business booked will be a lot less than the equivalent license revenue in the quarter. But does this mean We're seeing a move with stronger momentum to the cloud this quarter than we have seen.

Speaker 7

And I guess just to clarify, given your Guidance for the Q2. You said you're maintaining your longer term, but I just want to clarify, are you maintaining your constant currency organic Cloud guidance for the year.

Speaker 2

Yes. Okay. Let me start with yes. And as I want to remind you, of course, As I want to remind you, 29% of bigger numbers is more, okay? So last year we were smaller and this year we continue To plan on doing the 29% maybe better, all of it is dependent on us getting our data centers Filled up and built out as fast as possible.

Speaker 2

The level of demand we have is Stunning. Stunning is the only word I can use. And I don't want to get overly exuberant Simply because we do have to continue to build out our systems, etcetera. And so, yes, a very strong momentum to the cloud. And again, With the focus we told you, we're bringing our customers to the cloud and that's going to have us focusing on growing that and stronger momentum there.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Very clear. Yes and yes. Got it. Thanks.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you, John, and thank you, Lisa. A telephonic replay of this conference call will be available for 24 hours on our Investor Relations website. Thank you for joining us Today and with that, I'll turn the call back to Lisa for closing.

Operator

And that does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

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