CarMax Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
September 28, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 CarMax Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, David Lowenstein, AVP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Chelsea. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I'm here today with Bill Nash, our President and CEO Enrique Mayermore, our Executive Vice President and CFO and John Daniels, our Senior Vice President, CarMax Auto Finance Operations. Let me remind you, our statements today that are not statements of historical fact, including statements regarding the company's future business plans, These statements are based on our current knowledge, expectations and assumptions and are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

Speaker 1

In providing projections and other forward looking statements, we disclaim any intent or obligation to update them. For additional information on important facts that could affect these expectations, please see our Form 8 ks filed with the SEC this morning and our annual report on Form 10 ks for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2023, previously filed with the SEC. Should you have any follow-up questions after the call, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations department at 804-747-0422 extension 7,865. Lastly, Let me thank you in advance for asking only one question and getting back in the queue for more follow ups. Bill?

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Although our 2nd quarter results largely reflect the same widespread pressures that we cited over the past year, we continue to see sequential quarterly improvement across our business. We believe the deliberate steps we are taking to control what we can are supporting our business now while also positioning us well for the future.

Speaker 2

This quarter, we delivered strong retail GPU. We further reduced SG and A year over year. We maintained new saleable inventory units At a similar level to the Q1, while total inventory dollars decreased by 18% year over year, split approximately evenly between lower units And reduced acquisition costs. We drove strong wholesale GPU despite experiencing steep depreciation and we stabilized cash net interest margin while we maintain penetration. For the Q2 of FY 2024, our diversified business model delivered total sales of $7,100,000,000 Down 13% compared to last year, driven by lower retail and wholesale volume and prices.

Speaker 2

In our retail business, while total unit sales declined 7.4% And used unit comps were down 9%. We continued to achieve sequential quarterly improvement. Further, comp sales improved sequentially by month across the 2nd quarter. Average selling price declined approximately $1200 per unit or 4% year over year. Retail gross profit per used unit was $2,251 similar to last year's 2nd quarter record high of $2,282 We continue to expect this year's full year Per unit margin will be similar to last year.

Speaker 2

As always, we will continue to test price elasticity and monitor the competitive landscape. Wholesale unit sales were down 11.2% versus the Q2 last year. Like used unit sales, this reflects continued sequential improvement year over year from the second half Of last year and this year's Q1, average selling price declined approximately $1300 per unit or 12% year over year. Wholesale gross profit per unit was $9.63 up from $8.81 a year ago. We achieved this despite experiencing steep Appreciation that was concentrated primarily in June July.

Speaker 2

We bought approximately 292,000 vehicles from consumers and dealers during the quarter, Down 15% from last year as we adjusted offers to reflect the steep depreciation that we're seeing in the marketplace. Of these vehicles, we purchased approximately 273,000 from consumers in the quarter with a little more than half of those buys coming through our online instant appraisal experience. As a result, our self sufficiency remained above 70% during the quarter. Supported by our Edmund sales team, we sourced the remaining approximately 19,000 vehicles Through dealers down 5% from last year. In regard to our 2nd quarter online metrics, approximately 14% of retail unit sales were online, Up from 11% last year.

Speaker 2

Approximately 55% of retail unit sales were omni sales this quarter, up from 53% in the prior year. Nearly all of our 2nd quarter wholesale auctions and sales, which represents 19% of total revenue, remain virtual and are considered online transactions. Total revenue resulting from online transactions was approximately 31%, up slightly from 30% last year. CarMax Auto Finance, or CAF, delivered income of $135,000,000 down from $183,000,000 during the same period last year. John will provide more detail on customer financing, the loan loss provision and CAF contributions in a few minutes.

Speaker 2

At this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Enrique, who will provide more information

Speaker 3

Gross profit, SG and A and EPS. 2nd quarter net earnings per diluted share was $0.75 versus $0.79 a year ago. Total gross profit was $697,000,000 down 5% from last year's Q2. Used retail margin declined by 9% to $452,000,000 driven by lower volume at similar per unit margins. Wholesale vehicle margin declined by 3% to $137,000,000 with a decrease in volume partially offset by stronger per unit margin performance.

Speaker 3

Other gross profit was $108,000,000 up 6% from last year's Q2. This increase was driven by service, which delivered a $20,000,000 improvement over last year, with this quarter this year's quarter reporting a $14,000,000 loss. As we communicated in our last two earnings calls, our expectation is that service will deliver improved year over year performance for FY 2024 as a result of the efficiency and cost coverage measures that we've put in place. The extent of the improvement will also depend on sales performance Given the leverage deleverage nature of service, the improvement in service was partially offset by reduction in extended protection plant or EPP PPP revenues and third party finance fees. PPP revenues were down $8,000,000 primarily due to lower sales and were to a lesser degree impacted by slightly lower penetration rates, partially due to recent pricing increases taken to offset cost pressures experienced by our 3rd party providers.

Speaker 3

These items were partially offset by favorability in year over year reserve adjustments. 3rd party finance fees were down $4,000,000 from last year's Q2, driven by lower volume in Tier 2, for which we receive a fee. On the SG and A front, Expenses for the Q2 were $586,000,000 down 12% from the prior year's quarter as we continue to see the benefits of our cost management efforts. To a lesser degree, we also had some timing favorability in the quarter. SG and A as a percent of gross profit was 84%, a leverage of 6.3 points as compared to last year's Q2.

Speaker 3

The decrease in SG and A dollars over last year was mainly due to the following. 1st, other overhead decreased by $41,000,000 This decrease was driven by several factors, including continued favorability in non cap uncollectible receivables, Favorability in costs associated with lower staffing levels and from reductions in spend for our technology platforms and strategic initiatives, which included a timing benefit this quarter. We also had 2 smaller items in the quarter that largely offset each other. These consisted of additional settlement dollars from the same class action lawsuit we spoke to in the Q1, offset by unfavorable self insured losses related to multiple hailstorm events. 2nd, total compensation and benefits decreased $28,000,000 excluding a $7,000,000 increase in share based compensation.

Speaker 3

This decrease was primarily driven by our continued focus on driving efficiency gains and aligning staffing levels in stores and CECs to sales. 3rd, we reduced advertising by $17,000,000 This decrease was due to a reduction in per unit spend as compared to last year's peak per unit spend, lower volume and timing. As we communicated on our Q4 call, as we enter the back half of FY twenty twenty four, we will have largely anniversaried over the year over year benefits from our cost management efforts. With that said, we remain disciplined with our spend. We also expect timing in marketing and technology spend to impact the back half of FY twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3

In regard to marketing, We still expect our full year spend on a per unit basis to be similar to FY2023 spend level. Accordingly, our And in the back half of FY 'twenty four, we'll exceed the per unit spend from the front half. Regarding technology spend, Approximately $10,000,000 of the year to date year over year favorability experienced in other overhead will hit the back half of FY 'twenty four. We remain committed to effectively managing our cost structure. Our performance in the first half of the year has us on track to deliver on our goal of low single digit gross profit growth to lever SG and A for the full year, even when excluding the benefits from this year's legal settlements.

Speaker 3

Regarding capital structure, while we paused the repurchase of our common stock during the Q3 of fiscal 2023, We intend to restart our share repurchase program this quarter. We expect a modest initial pace that will be below the average quarterly paces prior to our pause. Our objective is to appropriately manage our net leverage to maintain financial flexibility and to efficiently access capital markets for both CAF and CarMax as a whole, while also returning capital back to shareholders. As of the end of the quarter, we had $2,450,000,000 of repurchase authorization remaining. Now I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Enrique, and good morning, everyone. During the Q2, CarMax Auto Finance originated $2,200,000,000 resulting in penetration of 42.8 percent, Net of 3 day payoffs, which was consistent with Q1 and up from 41.2% observed during the Q2 last year. Within the quarter, CAF tightened further within Tier 3 and is retaining only a modest amount of volume at this time. We have, however, Slightly increased our investment in the Tier 2 space in an effort to continue our learning and additional credit pockets that we believe will provide future opportunity. The weighted average contract rate charged to new customers was 11.1%, an increase of 170 basis points from the same period last year and in line with Q1.

Speaker 3

Tier 2 penetration in the quarter was 18.1% as a combination of previous lender tightening and consumer hesitation, especially in the lower credit tiers, drove the majority of reduction versus the 21.6 percent penetration observed last year. Tier 3 accounted for 6.4% of sales compared to 6% last year as lenders benefited slightly from CAS and Tier 2s tightening. GAAP income for the quarter was $135,000,000 down from $183,000,000 in the same period last year. This $48,000,000 year over year decrease is driven by a $90,000,000 increase in interest expense, partially offset by $60,000,000 of growth in interest and fee income as well as a $14,000,000 increase in loss provision. Note our interest expense was impacted by a negative $1,200,000 fair market value adjustment from our hedging strategy versus a positive $9,400,000 adjustment seen in the same period last year.

Speaker 3

Within the quarter, total interest margin on the full portfolio decreased to $265,000,000 down $30,000,000 from the same period last year. The corresponding margin to receivables rate of 6.1%, however, Has leveled off as expected and is in line with Q1. I am proud of the team's continued ability to effectively manage finance margin, cap penetration and sales conversion to benefit CarMax as a whole. The loan loss provision in Q2 of $90,000,000 results in an ending reserve balance of $538,000,000 or 3.08 percent of ending receivables. This is compared to A reserve of $535,000,000 last quarter, which was 3.11 percent of receivables.

Speaker 3

The slight reduction in the reserve to receivables rate is a function of the portfolio tightening, partially offset by the modest additional investment in the Tier 2 business and adjustments on loss expectations within the existing portfolio. We believe the tightening will have a positive impact on the future required reserve, But we will also continue to look for opportunities to capture long term profitability for CarMax, while maintaining a targeted Tier 1 cumulative net credit loss rate of 2% to 2.5%. Now I'll turn the call back over to Bill.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John and Enrique. As I mentioned at the start of the call, we believe the steps we are taking in response to the current environment are supporting our business in the near term, while also positioning us well for the long run. We will continue to focus on delivering what we believe is the most customer centric experience in the industry as we prioritize initiatives that drive operational efficiencies And make our omni channel experience faster, simpler and more seamless for our associates and customers. Some examples from the Q2 include For online, we're rolling out a number of new capabilities that enhance our digital shopping experience. In our customer experience centers For CECs, we launched a new order processing system.

Speaker 2

Sales orders generated through the new system automatically connect to customers' online accounts and to our progression tracker. This tool guides customers through each step of the car buying journey and provides a more seamless experience For customers who prefer to blend self progression with assistance from associates, we've begun testing this system in our stores, which will unlock this functionality for all of our customers regardless of where they start their buying journey. We are also expanding capabilities for Sky, Our 20 fourseven virtual assistant. As you might recall, Sky enables us to efficiently assist customers via automated chat functionality while taking work out of our CEC system. In addition to supporting workflows related to the finance applications, vehicle transfers and appointment reservations, Sky is now able to identify customers We have an appraisal instant offer.

Speaker 2

Sky helps these customers complete the next steps for their trade in. Previously, associates would have to reach out to provide further support. We've been pleased with our customers' adoption of Sky as they progress in their shopping journey. For our stores, we're continuing To leverage data automation to reduce costs and improve transaction speed and accuracy, we have deployed an integrated payoff service in our business office, which allows associates to obtain automated payoffs amounts for over 40% of the lenders holding titles for the cars we buy from consumers. In many instances, this service also enables us to receive titles faster by expediting payoffs.

Speaker 2

For our auctions, we continue to test enhancements to our to our platform by upgrading the information we provide dealers, which enables them to submit more informed bids. For example, we launched a using technology from our investment in partnership with UBI that provides more detailed information on tire conditions, including brand, speed, size and tread depth of each tire. Dealer feedback in this offering has been positive and we plan to roll out other enhancements in the upcoming quarters. Before turning to Q and A, I want to recognize 2 significant milestones in the company's history. First, this June, we celebrated the 2 year anniversary of welcoming all The talented Edmunds associates to our team.

Speaker 2

We're very excited with the value that we have created together so far as we continue to build out our vehicle and customer acquisition programs. For example, as I previously mentioned, we utilized the Edmund sales team to sign up and support dealers for our Max offer product, which has enabled us to extend our market leading position as a buyer of cars. We also recently launched an appraisal tool for dealer websites that makes instant offers Based on CarMax's algorithm that are redeemable via Max offer, we have received positive feedback from dealers that are utilizing this service and are pleased with the initial results. Additionally, Edmunds has launched a number of research and buy tools in support of our goal to be the leader in used EV sales. I'd like to speak to 3 of these.

Speaker 2

First, Edmunds has conducted hands on range testing of more than 60 EVs, which enables us to provide insights into how far a vehicle will go on a single charge in Beginning in late 2022, we partnered with Recurrent, a leader in EV battery health analytics. This allowed Edmunds to become the 1st online car shopping resource to offer intelligence to consumers about the health and range of used EV batteries at the VIN level. 2nd, we've launched customized range maps on edmunds.com that enable customers to determine how far they can drive on a single charge based on zip code specific to their route. And third, we have built guide to help customers evaluate potential tax credits and incentives for EVs. These Cover all available federal and state EV programs plus thousands of incentive offers from local utilities and municipalities across the country with more to come.

Speaker 2

Also this month, we are celebrating CarMax's 30th anniversary. I want to thank and congratulate all of our associates for the work that they do. They are the differentiator and they are the key to our success. Not many companies have the opportunity to revolutionize an industry twice. We're proud to appreciate the used car industry by driving integrity, honesty and transparency in every interaction.

Speaker 2

We are excited to reshape the industry again by offering a uniquely personalized car buying experience that enables customers to do as much or as little online and in store as they want. We're confident in the future of our diversified business model and believe the deliberate steps we are taking today will drive growth in the years ahead. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions. Chelsea?

Operator

And our first question will come from Craig Kennison with Baird. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you. My question goes to trade in cycles. With rates moving higher, are you seeing Elongated trade in cycles from your customers that are reluctant to give up lower rates that they might have locked in during the pandemic?

Speaker 2

Yes, Craig, good morning. I think what we're seeing is there's absolutely some customers that are because of either the affordability issue, which really goes into Payment, customers staying on the sidelines, which would answer the question, are the trade in cycles a little longer? Yes, I would say the trade in cycle is a little longer. As far as How to quantify that? I can't give you a specific number, but we absolutely see traffic flow coming in at the top of the funnel where there's interest and again Continue to fall off at the conversion point when people actually start to see their monthly payments.

Speaker 2

And this is especially true in the lower credit customers.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

Our next question will come from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey guys, good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 6

So I have a couple of questions. I'll merge them together. First off, with regard to the buyback, just maybe talk further about the decision to restart here and then maybe explain a little bit your comment about The modest start, how you expect to start modestly. Then the second question, just with respect to demand. So as we're seeing, As you highlighted in your comments, there's been a sequential improvement in your used car unit comps and it's still negative but better than they've been.

Speaker 6

Comparisons are getting easier. As you look at the data, are you seeing anything to suggest that in certain pockets you're actually seeing real demand improve or Maybe some benefits of what you've done to merchandise better older lower priced vehicles? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. I'll jump in on the first question. So an important component of our capital allocation strategy has been returning capital back to shareholders. Our goal in that strategy is really to balance investing in the business, ensuring the capital structure that we have is where we want it to be Then returning capital back to shareholders. The past few quarters of our sequential improvement in our performance has really placed us in a position We're able to restart, albeit at a modest pace.

Speaker 3

Modest really means an initial amount below our average the prepods quarterly pace, which was about $150,000,000 a quarter. So initially, we're going to begin with roughly $50,000,000 a quarter, Plus or minus, it's a quarterly amount and when annualized would roughly offset annual dilution. So it could be a little heavy, it could be a little light to that goal, but that's what we're initially targeting.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Brian, on the second part of your question, I'll go back a little bit of what I told Craig. We're seeing good top of funnel folks Shopping, it's just when it comes to actually meeting the monthly payments, that's where we see the fall off. I think specific to your question, We are seeing still an increased demand for the little bit older vehicles. In our own sales for the quarter, if I think about Cars over 6 years old, 60,000 miles, the sales for that pocket sequentially ticked up not only quarter over quarter, but certainly Year over year, so there still is that demand.

Speaker 2

I think the market data would also tell you if you look at vehicles that are older than 10 years old, That sector of vehicle is actually performing a little bit better than the 0 to 10 at this point.

Speaker 6

Very helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Brian.

Operator

Our next question

Speaker 7

My question is on the competitive environment. How are you thinking about the outlook here over the next 6 months or so, based on a shift in demand to those older vehicles as well as the potential ripple effects of the UAW strikes.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Seth. Well, first of all, on the UAW strikes, I think it's a little too early to know exactly what the price the precise impact of those strikes are going to be. Obviously, we're closely monitoring the situation to try to identify downstream impacts of the vehicle supply, pricing and parts and a lot of that's going to depend on How long the strike goes on? Obviously, this isn't the first time we've worked through an issue like this.

Speaker 2

And I think it's one of our strengths having Gone through cycles like this in the past and been able to navigate them and I don't expect any difference there. I think as far as the competitive environment, Again, I think consumers are pressured right now and we'll continue to monitor and provide vehicles that are a little bit older. Keep in mind, There's a large subset of the 0 to 10 year old cars that just don't meet our parameters so much. Our technicians are great and no matter how good they are and how much money we put into them, they just can't make The cut is a CarMax car. So we're not going to sacrifice on quality, but we'll continue to put out there Vehicles that match our quality that they're also looking for.

Speaker 3

In terms of affordability as well, we still have over a quarter of our inventories Price less than $20,000 So in terms of hitting that affordability, it certainly is a focus for us.

Speaker 7

Just as a follow-up, in terms of your ability to source Late model vehicles, just still a majority of what you're selling. Are you seeing any more challenges? Do you expect that to change going forward?

Speaker 2

No, we aren't seeing any more. In fact, this quarter, I think, compared to the previous quarter, we actually went up a little bit in the 0 to 4 Category as far as sales go. And again, I think the fact that our self sufficiency is above 70 Which doesn't take into consideration anything that we're getting through our MAX offer. And MAX offer, there's a nice selection of retail cars in there as well. So Haven't really seen much of a change there.

Speaker 2

And again, we've been through cycles like this where we've seen a shortage of late model cars To a more extreme degree than we're seeing right now.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Seth.

Operator

Our next question will come from John Healy with Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Just wanted to ask a follow-up question to the your comment, Bill, about the conversion cycle. What's happening after that Initial disappointment with the consumer that they can't afford the vehicle. Are you seeing them come back a couple of weeks later? You think they're going to the private market?

Speaker 3

Are they just sitting on the sidelines? I know your sales folks are persistent. So we just love to kind of Good perspective of what's happening after they meet that surprise affordability roadblock.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's a great question, John. If I look at Just web traffic, and kind of use that as a proxy. We're we probably were averaging for the quarter about 37 1,000,000 hits, which is up substantially year over year and even up over the quarter, probably by about 3,000,000 2 to 3,000,000 Which tells me, look, we've got a lot of folks that are out there and they're interested in their window shopping. And some of those are absolutely repeat Offenders, those aren't unique visits.

Speaker 2

As far as where they're going, look, I think there's a lot of folks unless They just their car isn't running anymore. They're just delaying the purchase. I do think that for some of the folks that cannot delay the purchase, I absolutely think that some of them are Going down to a different level of car, just to make sure that they can afford the monthly payments and to have reliable transportation.

Speaker 3

And I'll tack onto that, John. I think and that's one of the real values of our finance product. You can easily apply online and then providing the answers back on all the vehicles. You can very easily pivot and find something in your range sort filter accordingly. So I think that's one of the things that we're really excited about being able to provide that to our customer.

Speaker 2

Well, and the fact that having so many lenders on the platform, basically competing for the customers also gives them the best Interest rate, which is a key component of the monthly payment.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, Ed.

Speaker 2

Thanks, John.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 1

So I think on the

Speaker 9

call you commented, Bill, that comps Proved by month, but I think comparison challenges eased if I'm not mistaken. So what would the monthly cadence look like on a 2 or 3 year stack basis? And then kind of related to that, I know you guys don't guide, haven't for a very long time. But any reason to believe comps shouldn't turn positive in the back half just based on Trends and comparisons?

Speaker 2

Yes. Scott, if we look at the quarter specifically, I think I talked about the last call that the beginning of the quarter We're starting out how the last quarter ended on average. And we did, as I said in the call, we did see improvement Each month of the quarter. And September so far is very similar to A little bit of improvement to where August was. We're not going to give guidance on the rest of the year.

Speaker 2

But as you said, I mean, the comps Because of last year's performance, the comps do get a little bit easier.

Speaker 9

Okay. So if I were just to break down 2Q not coming on 3Q obviously.

Speaker 4

If

Speaker 9

I was looking at stacks like is there a way to kind of look at on a 2 or 3 year stack and help us whether there was improvement on that basis?

Speaker 3

On the 2 year stack, the 2nd quarter was better than the 1st quarter. I think when it comes to intra quarter, we try not to talk too much about the details of month to month, especially when looking over year. But I would tell you that 2nd quarter or 2 year basis better than the Q1, that's like Bill said.

Speaker 9

Okay. I'll take the rest offline. Thanks guys.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning. I apologize if you answered this. My cell cut out and I had to redial in. But Obviously, you're resuming the share repurchase program. What are the thoughts at this point on store openings?

Speaker 10

I don't know if you even reiterated the plan for this year and I know you had kind of left the door open to maybe accelerating next year. So just Thoughts on that or perhaps the idea has changed in terms of harvesting more sales At existing locations rather than growing the store base meaningfully.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Sharon. Yes, our Outlook at this point, what we've already said hasn't changed. So this year, we have a few more stores that we're going to open up. So that will get us to a total of 5 this year, Plus the one standalone production facility that we've talked about down in the Atlanta market.

Speaker 2

We have not Come out and said exactly the number of stores that we'll be building next year yet. We'll talk about that later on in the year, probably Q4 and let you know.

Speaker 3

That's regularly routine. We provide that update on an annual basis along with our CapEx guidance for the year.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Sharon.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to ask on the credit front, if you can provide an update on credit availability. And then also to the extent some of the credit behavior was less favorable, how should we think about provisioning given the current background is Kind of $90,000,000 the right number for now. Any color you can give there would be great.

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes, I'll take them in order. Credit availability for CarMax, again, I think this is one of the values of having the multitude of lenders that we have. We really Now I think it's not surprising the industry that obviously lenders are always looking To shore up their portfolios and they've tightened where they've needed to, we've seen most of our tightening from our partners, if you will, probably the back half of last calendar year. Cap has tightened over the course of the year, and I think that's just standard lending practices that you're going to find right now.

Speaker 3

But ultimately, I think provide fantastic access to credit certainly in the high 90% range from mid to over and probably 95% approval rate to customers When they apply and again I think we give them access to see other vehicles that are available to them. Regarding overall performance in the quarter for CAF in particular, We continue to look at our overall portfolio. I'm going to look at this from the lens of our Tier 1 business. We securitized everything. We report on that on a monthly basis, how that's If you really look at the older deals that you might compare the newer deals to the 2017, 2018, 2019, even the 2020 deals, Exceptionally low loss rates, well below the 2% to 2.5% range, they're trending towards right now.

Speaker 3

And obviously, for all the reasons that We've cited before access to cash, government stimulus all that. So they really outperformed. What we're seeing currently in the newer vintages is really highly expected. It's just a reversion back to sort of the normalized Levels that the industry has seen from a lending perspective. So we are we were anticipating the 2021 to 2022 deals to go back to that 2% to 2.5 I would tell you we're seeing with these higher monthly payments, we're probably at the higher portion of that range and that's why we've done the tightening that we've done.

Speaker 3

We've done it over the course of the last year, to some degree in Tier 3 and also pockets in Tier 1 where we see opportunity to pull back. We want to make sure we operate well within that 2 to 2.5 range, and I think we've done a nice job there. So ultimately, as you think about the provision going forward, It's a combination of several things I cited in the prepared remarks. The existing portfolio, which again, yes, I think we have a good handle on. I think it's going to operate in that 2% to 2.5% range and we've done a nice job there.

Speaker 3

You've got the new originations, which are certainly going to come in lower given the tightening. We pulled back to some degree on the Tier 3. It's a small portion of our business and the Tier 2, we're excited about that space and we see great opportunity. So you put all that together, I think our reserve speaks for itself. We've come from a 3.11 to a 3.08.

Speaker 3

I think it's relatively stable. We think we're well reserved and we'll see how the consumer performs, but I think we're in a good spot right now.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from John Murphy with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Good morning, guys. I just wanted to ask, Bill, as you go through periods of steep Appreciation, Mike, you're talking about and we've seen in the used car market on pricing. Typically, they're accompanied by Supply increases, which would drive same store sales higher. I'm just curious what you're seeing In the market right now, as far as availability and flow of vehicles, maybe in the 0 to 6 year old bucket, Which is the target and then you may be in the 6 to 10 year old which is a growing target for you over time?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, John. When I take look back at the depreciation Like I said, there was steep depreciation in June July and quite honestly, it started in May. So if you look at May, June July, there was probably about $3,000 of depreciation, which is absolutely it's steep. And the biggest impact it has on us obviously is really more on the bias because We're going to adjust accordingly and consumers are always thinking that their vehicles are worth more.

Speaker 2

So it impacts the buyers early on until the rest of the market shifts. So From a buyer standpoint, it's a headwind in the short term. But again, I think the team did a phenomenal job, not only maintaining the retail margins, The wholesale margins which we haven't talked about because year over year they were up even in this steep environment. As far as Availability, look, if you're having to rely on outside sources, there's just there's a limited supply. And if I And if I think back over at least my tenure here at CarMax, there's just less vehicles available through 3rd party auctions and it's been that way For a while.

Speaker 2

So and I don't foresee that changing greatly in the near term, which It's also why we're thrilled to have our self sufficiency so high, and we're continuing to look for avenues to continue to Source inventory, really retail or wholesale, however we can outside of those sources.

Speaker 11

And maybe just a follow-up, I mean, do you think you could ever get meaningfully above that 70% self sufficiency that you're at right now, which is pretty damn good to start with. I mean, are there other avenues maybe through Edmunds or other ways that you could increase that meaningfully?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, we could take it to 100% tomorrow. It all depends on what you put On the vehicles, I think we probably I'd say this, we probably would never get to 100% self sufficient Because you're always going to want to have little pockets of inventory that you're going to want to supplement or whatever. But again, our goal is To drive as much as drive it as high as possible, it's been pretty 70 it's pretty steady in that 70 ish In that range, which we feel good about. And again, I think the key thing here is it's not only on the retail cars, but We'll also buy every wholesale car as well.

Speaker 2

So we're absolutely focused on that.

Speaker 11

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John.

Operator

Our next question will come from Chris Bottiglieri with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. So I hope you could elaborate more on compensation expense. I know you said you're lapping cost cuts, but it seems like that compensation cost cuts Sequentially ramped each quarter. So my question is like if you look at the 4 year CAGR that's gotten particularly better relative to units, Particularly Q2 versus Q1.

Speaker 8

Are you still actively reducing headcount? Have unit trends maintained normal seasonality from here? What would happen to compensation? Would that also behave normal or would that be better or worse than normal seasonality?

Speaker 3

Thanks for the question, Chris. At this point with compensation, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we have pretty much anniversaried over the benefits of some of the stronger levers we put in place. So when thinking of compensation, I would think of that for the back half of the year, one of the more pressured lines, if you will, relative to where we've been here for the past So we've comped over those levers. At the same time, we go through the decision process at this time of year about staffing For tax time, right? And depending on what the expectation is for tax time, we start to ramp up our associate level there as well.

Speaker 3

So I do expect compensation will be one of the line items moving forward that will be a little bit more pressure relative to where we've been for the past few quarters

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, just to bring it down with some numbers. If you look at a year ago staffing wise total company, we're down about 3,000 or so associates and that's pretty consistent with what the Q1 was as well. So we've kind of as long as we're keeping staffing To where we feel like we need sales to Enrique's point, it will be the back half of the year will just be you won't see as much pickup there.

Speaker 3

We believe we're appropriately staffed. So those cost management efforts we undertook successfully at this point were largely successfully Staffed and appropriately staffed.

Speaker 2

Yes. The only other thing would be that Enrique touched on this in his earlier remarks, if everyone keep in mind is as the back half of the year progresses, That's generally from a seasonality standpoint when we start to think about next year's tax time and building for that and so that generally requires a little bit Larger headcount. So we'll be monitoring that as we go through the back half.

Speaker 8

Got you. That makes sense. And then just quickly on Car buying, I think you called that out. It seemed like it was July August when pricing was the worst or sorry, June July. As pricing kind of stabilized a bit in September and to a lesser extent August, have you seen are you buying cars more often or more frequently higher conversion from customers?

Speaker 8

Is that Kind of trying to maintain its pace?

Speaker 2

Yes. So June July was the worst. August Actually, it was up a little bit. And then September in AAA data is probably flattish to a little bit up from a depreciation Standpoint or in appreciation standpoint. So I would call August September fairly similar, but it was A reversal of the steep depreciation.

Speaker 2

And I think as we look forward to the rest of the year, I think what we'll probably see now this is assuming No other macro factors and obviously there's a lot of things out there especially when you start thinking about the strike. But outside of that I would think we would Continue to see probably more normal seasonal depreciation barring any other new event.

Speaker 8

And that helps your car buying, like you expect that to pick back up from here? Or is that or do you think it's like the level of

Speaker 5

Well, I

Speaker 2

think what that does is it does a couple of things. One, as depreciation continues, obviously, that feeds that on to So I think that helps some on the affordability issue. I think also more stable depreciation. It just makes it easier to run the business. Do a phenomenal job and the team did a phenomenal job even with that steep depreciation that we saw in the quarter.

Speaker 2

But when you're starting to see normal depreciation, that's just that's Kind of business as usual for us.

Speaker 8

Got you. That makes sense. Okay. Thank you for the help. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Just had one question, one clarification. On retail GPU, It was a little larger than seasonal declines in the Q2 versus Q1. Last 10 plus years, the average Sequential move has been $50 lower.

Speaker 12

I mean, this quarter was more than $100 Just curious if There were any one time items that impacted that or were there any pricing tests, anything you would call out and some clarification?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question, Rajat. Yes, when I think about this quarter, actually I'm pleased. I'm pleased because we talked about last quarter coming into more in line with where we were last, Remember last year was a record high for us. And as you point out, I mean, dollars 30 is within the noise for us.

Speaker 2

So I feel good about that, Especially considering the environment that's out there. I think the Q1 obviously was a record high. And I think there were some dynamics in that quarter where you purchased the vehicles and then we saw some appreciation in that quarter, which keeps you from having to do markdowns that kind of thing. So I look at the Q1 as more of anomaly, which is why we set the said what we did last quarter. We thought we'd be more in line in the second quarter With the Q2 last year and we reiterate we think we'll be more in line for the whole year with the whole year of last year, which is still A step up from where we've historically run of $80 to $100

Speaker 3

And Rajat, just as a reminder, the Q1, there's some The benefit too, right? So the Q1 tends to be our strongest from a GPU standpoint just within tax time. So is that happening as well?

Speaker 12

Right, right. That's helpful. And Jason, you mentioned earlier around the supply situation And the fact that there are several cars in the 0 to 10 year old that do not meet your reconditioning needs. As we look into later this year into the next couple of years, it looks like There'll be more dependency on the greater than 6 year old cars to grow your business. How do you get around some of those quality constraints, reconditioned constraints for those cars because The 0 to 4 year old supply is likely going to get worse before it gets better.

Speaker 12

So how do we manage through that in order to return to growth in the business In the next couple of years. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, what I would remind you, Zad, is if you go back when we had the last Big bubble go through on late model cars back in the financial crisis. The new car sales rate in 2008, 2009,009, 10, 11, it bounced around anywhere between $10,500,000 and a little over $13,000,000 If you look at the period from like 2020, 2021, 2022 and even the estimate for this year, you're talking about 14 to over 15. My point and pointing that out is we've been through far worse situations than what we're seeing now as far as a bubble of 0 to 4 or 0 to 6 cars that we're going to be facing. And again, we're in a better position than we were back then because our self sufficiency is so high and we're getting those cars directly from So we feel very good about our ability to navigate the future, whether it's consumers wanting 0 to 6 year old cars or whether it's consumers wanting

Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Imbro with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 12

I wanted

Speaker 5

to ask a follow-up on CAF and maybe it ties into the affordability discussion. But the weighted average rate here was Flat, I think sequentially at 11.1 percent despite maybe rising benchmark rates and your recent trend of passing through price. So I guess, are we seeing customers Push back on rates, should we maybe take that as a sign customers have reached their limit on affordability? And are you guys at maybe the end of your ability to pass through more APR at CAF, despite the rising kind of rate environment, just curious why that sequentially flat line from here?

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes. Great question, Danielle. Couple of things that are subtle in there to point out. First, the flat quarter over quarter also realized we did some tightening in there.

Speaker 3

If you pull back in the Tier 3 space, we pick pockets in the Tier 1 space. That's going to offset any Sequential growth in the APR, I can tell you that we did continue to test and raise APRs within the quarter. But bear in mind, I think one of the key things for us is we're not looking to And when we do our testing and pass this along to the customer, we're taking into account, are they able to purchase the car? Are they going to end up paying off with someone else where we wouldn't gain any finance income? So we very carefully test different rates and then adjust those rates in smaller pockets To optimize the overall CarMax value.

Speaker 3

So I think that's why you're seeing the sequential piece. But certainly, obviously, there are payment pressures, as Bill mentioned. So we continue to be very careful with that. But that's why you're seeing sequential quarter over quarter flat. It's the tightening is offsetting it.

Speaker 5

So to follow-up on that question, your strategy will more be to maximize units sold, not maximize margin at CAT. Did we hear that right?

Speaker 3

No, I would say we contemplate that in the decision. We look at units sold. We look at amount of finance margin that CAF captures and also contemplate remember they can pay off in 3 days. So we could sell the car, but CAF could lose the financing if they choose to go down the street to their bank or their credit union. So We put all that together to optimize for CarMax in total, not just maximize one dimension or the other.

Speaker 3

That's CarMax total profitability, right, how we think about it. That's right.

Speaker 5

Perfect. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question will come from David Whiston with Morningstar. Your line is

Speaker 4

open. Thanks. Good morning. Just sticking with those other financing channels you just mentioned, Enrique, I'm just curious why this year Other is gaining a lot at the expense of Tier 2. Are there more just more cash only buyers in the market now?

Speaker 4

Or is there a problem with Tier 2 consumers Wanting to buy or other lenders just taking the opportunity from you?

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes, David. I think there's a couple of things going on there. First, I think What you really do see is the affordability is definitely a challenge in the bottom portion of the credit spectrum, kind of that mid tier to the subprime space. We see great demand across the credit spectrum, but ultimately when they see the monthly payments, it's the higher end guys that are able a follow through with the purchase.

Speaker 3

So that's going to benefit both CAF and kind of the outside financing population. You did see some pullback, as I mentioned, The back half of last year in the Tier 2 space, so there's also some tightening that's hurting the penetration there. Just to round it out in Tier 3, they did benefit from that tightening, right? Those customers slow down to the Tier 3 space. But I think predominantly It's affordability.

Speaker 3

Those higher end customers can buy and that's why you see the percentage of sales a little more skewed to the high end. I think there's demand everywhere, but that's really what's driving it.

Speaker 4

Okay. And could you just briefly give me some examples of what non Capon collectible receivables are?

Speaker 3

Yes. So those are going to be so this is in the SG and A bucket, right? And these are going to be receivables that our finance partners originate And underwrite that end up having a title processing issue or a down payment challenge that we end up having to buyback. So that's an area of focus for us over the past year. We've made material improvements as I've talked about on previous quarters, both in execution in our stores and our home office.

Speaker 3

The DMBs have also got better in terms of turning around those titles as well as the banks in terms of turning around the processing. So we saw another quarter of benefit this quarter. We expect to see some more benefit in the back half of the year, probably not as strong as the first half of the year as we start to lap over That accentuated focus last year that we had on making sure we're managing those.

Speaker 6

And I'm sorry, do

Speaker 4

you do 100% of that servicing for the 3rd party lenders In terms of the collection stuff?

Speaker 3

No, we do not. That's we do not underwrite it. That's a third party partner. They will underwrite it and then service it. That's right.

Speaker 5

All right. Thank you. We

Operator

do have another question from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Hey guys, thanks for letting me sneak one more in. Just wanted to ask about, if you could give any incremental color around Sales trends by income level and when you think about the improvement sequentially to the down 9% comp and then throughout the quarter, What are you seeing for upper income versus lower income consumers? And then how does that filter into your desire to spend into ad dollars for the back half of the year?

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes. So as I said earlier, I mean, we're seeing the biggest pinch probably on the not probably on the we are seeing on the lower consumer. And think about it From a monthly household income of let's say $3,000 to $4,000 that segment of sales for us has Shrink dramatically. So it's probably in the last couple of years, it's down probably And it's probably down about 50% in the $3,000 less household income, it's about 50% less than what it used to be.

Speaker 2

So that's Absolutely a headwind, which again speaks to the affordability. As far as advertising goes, that's an area where Jim and Sarah and team, they constantly are looking at it. And I think an interesting thing that everybody needs to keep in mind is because we've got this big buying engine also. When we talk about advertising, It's advertising for sales, but it's also advertising for buy. So while you may pull back on sales, you may do more on buy.

Speaker 2

So It's a walk that we do and that team does a great job measuring the ROI. So to Enrique's comments earlier, what we're expecting to do in the back half, That certainly could shift if we see something in the marketplace that says, hey, you don't need to spend as much, it's not fruitful or on the flip side, You may want to spend a little bit more. And so we're constantly monitoring that. But I think the guidance that Enrique gave is really the way to think about it and then we'll continue to monitor it.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We don't have any further questions at this time. I'll hand the call back to Bill for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Great. Well, thank you all for joining the call today and for your questions and your continued support. I do want to one more time congratulate the CarMax team on achieving our 30th anniversary. And I just want to thank them for everything that they do every day to take care of each other And our customers and the communities, and we will talk again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes the Q2 fiscal year 2024 CarMax earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.

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CarMax Q2 2024
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