Hexcel Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 22, 2024

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

you for standing by, and welcome to the Hexcel Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Patrick Winterlich, Chief Financial Officer.

Operator

Thank you. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Julian. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Hexcel Corporation's Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Before beginning, let me cover the formalities. I want to remind everyone about the Safe Harbor provisions related to any forward looking statements we may make during the course of this call.

Speaker 1

Certain statements contained in this call may constitute forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They involve estimates, assumptions, judgments and uncertainties caused by a variety of factors that could cause future actual results or outcomes to differ materially from our forward looking statements today. Such factors are detailed in the company's SEC filings and earnings release. A replay of this call will be available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Lastly, this call is being recorded by Hexcel Corporation and is copyrighted material.

Speaker 1

It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without our expressed permission. Your participation on this call constitutes your consent for that request. With me today are Tom Gentile, our CEO and President and Kirk Goddard, our Vice President of Investor Relations. The purpose of the call is to review our Q3 2024 results detailed in our news release issued yesterday. Now let me turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we share our 2024 Q3 results. I have now been with Hexcel nearly 6 months and my excitement continues to grow as I learn more about this world leading technology company, our talented team and Hexcel's innovative lightweighting solutions. I have visited more than 80% of Hexcel sites in the U. S, Europe and Africa.

Speaker 2

And I can say that technology, innovation, operational expertise and focus on execution is truly outstanding. Just last week, I was at our state of the art technology center in Salt Lake City with the Hexcel leadership team and our global R and T leader, reviewing the latest technology developments across the company and setting priorities for the future. As a relative newcomer to Hexcel, I can tell you the extensive innovation across the company is incredible and something we intend to continue investing in and promoting strongly going forward. Hexcel is on a long term growth trajectory. And with every new generation of commercial and military aircraft using more advanced composite material for improved fuel efficiency and range, for emissions reduction and for aerodynamic structural design benefits.

Speaker 2

The medium to long term future for Hexcel and our innovative lightweighting solution is remarkable and the cash generation and shareholder return potential is compelling. IATA's latest global air traffic statistics illustrated that global passenger air travel has exceeded pre pandemic peaks and that airline load factors reached a record in August. This probably comes as no surprise to you as I'm sure we are all experiencing full flights whenever we travel. Consistent with this picture of robust health for airline passenger demand, the backlog for new Airbus and Boeing aircraft is at an all time high of just under 15,000 aircraft on order. That's a lot of planes to build with a lot of composite material.

Speaker 2

However, as we all know all too well, despite the strong demand for new fuel efficient planes, ongoing and new supply chain challenges, including the strike at Boeing, continued to disrupt planned increases in production rates. Coming out of 2023, there was a sense in the industry that we were finally achieving some stability after the pandemic. Both Boeing and Airbus publicly pointed to signs of improvement within the supply chain. By late 2024, however, new challenges emerged in the supply chain, including the supply of engines, casting, seats and landing gear to name just a few that have pushed the recovery in production rates further to the right. At Hexcel, our job is to focus on what we can control, driving operational excellence, maintaining quality standards, keeping a robust grip on costs and delivering to our customers on time.

Speaker 2

And I am determined to maintain and reinforce the strong focus that has been in place for many years at Hexcel. As we have communicated previously, we are working hard to ensure that we are ready to satisfy the demand in front of us. We are typically sole source and with that comes a responsibility for on time delivery. To this end, earlier in the year, we recruited the next wave of direct labor that we needed to meet the forecasted strong demand ahead of us. And we've continued to focus on training and expanding shop floor experience to prepare for the eventual higher production rates, which our customers are publicly forecasting in their schedules.

Speaker 2

It takes time for our new employees to learn our processes and become efficient and productive on the shop floor, as we have highly technical operations requiring significant training and experience. Therefore, we need to hire 2 or 3 quarters ahead of when we expect the demand to develop. As we have said before, this start, stop, start and delayed ramp up environment means that periodically, we will carry too much labor and overhead infrastructure costs, which will be a near term headwind to margin. We believe we are making the correct decision regarding the timing of adding and training new labor. Although the production rate increases are slower than we would like, there is no question our demand is on an upward trajectory and we are confident we have taken the right steps to support our customers with experienced and capable labor as they execute on their schedules for production rate increases.

Speaker 2

We will continue to monitor how those production rates evolve and align our headcount and cost base accordingly. In September, we held our annual strategic review with the Hexcel Board. One of the key areas of focus that came out of that strategic review was the importance of our Defense and Space business. As the only vertically integrated U. S.-based American advanced composite company, Hexcel has significant and unique opportunities to develop and sell more critical composite technology into the defense and space market.

Speaker 2

During our strategic review, we also made some decisions about our current market focus. For many years, Xcel has produced material for select industrial markets, including wind energy and certain recreation markets such as winter sports. These businesses historically focused on high volumes of glass fiber prepress, no longer aligned with our strategic priorities. We are therefore currently exploring strategic options for our plant in Austria, which produces material for these markets and which we believe will be better served with different ownership. I will now turn to our Q3 results released last night.

Speaker 2

XL's 3rd quarter sales of $457,000,000 were up more than 8% year over year on solid performance, especially so in commercial aerospace where sales grew 17% year over year. At $0.47 adjusted EPS was over 20% better than Q3 2023, the strong adjusted EBIT leverage. While 3rd quarter sales grew strongly year over year, they also reflected the normal Q3 seasonality we typically experience from the European summer vacation period. In addition, there are the ongoing supply chain challenges impacting the commercial aerospace market and the latter part of the quarter was marginally impacted by the Boeing strike. Given the previously discussed higher overhead infrastructure and labor levels being carried right now at Hexcel, combined with the expected lower third quarter sales run rate, we experienced an anticipated reduction in our margins in the Q3 on a sequential basis.

Speaker 2

Overall, the Q3 of 2024 came in generally close to our expectation, though it should be noted that our adjusted EPS benefited from tax planning work coming together in the period. Given all the challenges we see in the marketplace, we expect our 2024 results will be within our current guidance, but at the lower end of the range and benefiting from the lower effective tax rate of 19% versus 22%. Commercial Aerospace sales of $296,000,000 increased 17% in constant currency compared to the Q3 of 2023. Our 3 key commercial aerospace program, the A350, the A320neo and the 787, all generated double digit sales growth year over year. We should note that the work we do for Airbus programs is nearly 3 times as large as the work we do for Boeing.

Speaker 2

And our Boeing work is about half focused on the 787, which is built in Charleston, South Carolina, a plant which is not involved in the current Boeing strike in the Puget Sound area of Washington State. Sector the growth from business jet composite adoption is driving the growth in other commercial aerospace, which grew 9% in the 3rd quarter. Turning to Space and Defense. Sales of $128,000,000 were essentially flat in constant currency. While select key programs grew, including the Lockheed F-thirty 5 and the Sikorsky CH-fifty 3 ks and Black Hawk Helicopters, the SpaceX sub segment was broadly soft, including launchers, satellites and rocket motors.

Speaker 2

The V-twenty 2 is also a headwind as that program winds down. During the quarter, we are excited for 2 of our plants, Pottsville, Pennsylvania and Salt Lake City, Utah to be awarded the Sikorsky 2023 Elite Supplier Status based on best in class on time delivery and quality. Such rewards reflect our endless pursuit of operational excellence and fuel our passion for continuous improvement. We were also one of only 15 suppliers nominated by Airbus for a prestigious transformation award at their annual supplier conference in Toulouse 2 weeks ago. I would now like to address the medium term guidance that we presented in February of this year.

Speaker 2

The foundation for that guidance was the best demand and production rate forecast available at that time, which supported a growing sense of confidence in the supply chain and production rates. We believe that the guidance we provided was a conservative view on the growth outlook. Now, 8 months on from providing that guidance, it is clear that the world is not where we had expected it to be. Turbulence in the commercial aerospace OEM supply chain has continued unabated. As I noted earlier, issues over the last 4 to 6 months with engines, casting seats, landing gear and now the Boeing strike are constraining any sustained near term improvement in the commercial aerospace supply chain and we have seen further delays to production rate increases such as those announced by Airbus this past June.

Speaker 2

Having now had time to assess the situation and more deeply review the current data and outlook for Hexcel, it is clear that the assumptions that were the basis for our midterm guidance are no longer valid. We are therefore withdrawing our previously issued midterm guidance and we will provide guidance for 2025 with our Q4 earnings in January. With that said, we remain confident in the outlook for commercial aircraft and expect both Airbus and Boeing to continue to increase their production rates over the coming quarters and continue to do so for many years to come in order to deliver on their historic backlog. We also retain our confidence in space and defense markets as well as our conviction in the cash generation ability of Hexcel. Reflecting this confidence and strong belief in the value proposition for Hexcel, we repurchased around $50,000,000 of Hexcel stock during the quarter of this quarter in 2024, which brings the total stock repurchases to just over $250,000,000 this year, a significant return of cash to our shareholders.

Speaker 2

Our expectation is for Hexcel to generate strong EBITDA margins and cash flow for years to come. Since we have already invested the capital to support the production rates in effect in 2019, we expect capital expenditures to remain below $100,000,000 per year for the foreseeable future. We will focus on optimizing our capital deployment, where our priorities remain unchanged, namely funding organic growth when required and then considering M and A and inorganic growth in a very disciplined and strategic manner. Also, we will continue to pay a dividend with a notional target payout ratio of roughly 20% of net income in the medium to longer term. This will be accompanied by a program of periodic share repurchases, while we operate within our targeted net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.5 to 2.5.

Speaker 2

We remain confident in a strong future with robust growth and strong shareholder returns. Now let me turn it over to Patrick to provide more details on the numbers. Patrick?

Speaker 1

Thank you, Tom. As a reminder, regarding foreign exchange exposure and I have explained in detail during previous earnings calls, Hexcel benefits from a strong dollar. We continue to hedge foreign exchange exposure over a 10 quarter time horizon. Year over year sales comparisons I will provide are in constant currency, which thereby removes the foreign exchange impact of the sales. The commercial aerospace market represented approximately 65% of total Q3 2024 sales of $456,500,000 The 3rd quarter commercial aerospace sales increased 17% compared to the Q3 of 2023 with double digit growth in our 3 key platforms, the Airbus A350, A320 and the Boeing 787.

Speaker 1

The 7 37 MAX is a smaller program for us as it is predominantly a metal plane launched in the 1960s when composites were still in their infancy. The majority of our content is with the LEAP engine in nacelle. In the Q3 of 2024, our MAX sales were marginally impacted by the Boeing strike and lower both year over year and sequentially. So the materiality of the impact is less than a decline in our other key programs would have been. The other commercial aerospace category increased 9.1% led by robust latest generation business jet sales.

Speaker 1

To share some further perspective on our commercial aerospace business year to date, wide body sales comprised just under 40% of total year to date commercial aerospace sales, narrow body sales were just over 30% and other commercial aerospace, including business and regional aircraft, was approximately 20%. Base and Defense represented approximately 28% of 3rd quarter sales and totaled $128,200,000 decreasing just under 1% from the same period in 2023. As we have previously said, this market can be volatile quarter to quarter. In the Q3 of 2024, CH-53 ks and Black Hawk program both experienced growth, including Blackhawk replacement helicopter blades, a good aftermarket business for us. The Bell B-twenty two program is winding down.

Speaker 1

So that is a headwind for us in terms of year over year sales comparison. And in the Q3, the space submarket was weaker both domestically and abroad, including satellites, launches and rockets. Production volumes are lower in space and can be lumpy, leading to greater quarter to quarter volatility in our sales historically. Industrial is a much smaller part of our business, comprising only 7% of Q3 2024 sales and totaled $32,400,000 decreasing 17.3% compared to the Q3 of 2023. We experienced softness across all the submarkets, including high end performance automotive.

Speaker 1

Turning back to total company sales and as we expected, summer holidays led to a sequential sales decline as demand softened seasonally from our European based commercial aerospace, business jet, base and defense and industrial customers. Gross margin is 23.3% in the Q3 of 2024 favorably compared to the prior year period gross margin of 21.8%. The improvement reflects the operating leverage from higher sales. As a percentage of sales, selling, general and administrative expenses and R and were 11.7% in the Q3 of 2024 compared to 11.6% in the comparable prior year period. As I mentioned last quarter, there is a modest cost impact from the CEO transition that will recur in the Q4 of 2024 and then conclude at year end.

Speaker 1

Adjusted operating income in the Q3 was $52,900,000 or 11.6 percent of sales compared to $42,800,000 or 10.2 percent of sales in the comparable prior year period. The year over year impact of exchange rates in the Q3 to operating income was favorable by approximately 10 basis points. Now turning to our 2 segments. The Composite Materials segment represented 81% total third quarter sales and generated an operating margin of 14.4%. The operating margin in the comparable prior year period was 12.3%.

Speaker 1

The Engineered Products segment, which is comprised of our Structures and Engineered core businesses, represented 19% of total sales and generated an 11.2% operating margin as compared to 7.8% in the comparable prior year period. Net cash provided by operating activities was $127,300,000 for the 1st 9 months 2024, which compares to $98,100,000 for the same period in 2023. Working capital was a cash use of $93,100,000 for the 1st 9 months of 2024 and with a cash use of $112,100,000 for the comparable prior year period. Capital expenditures on an accrual basis were $59,600,000 for the 1st 9 months of 2024 compared to $88,700,000 in the comparable prior year period. Recall that in 2023, we purchased the land and building for our Amesbury, Massachusetts operation for approximately $38,000,000 Free cash flow for the 1st 9 months of 2024 was $58,900,000 which compares to $3,700,000 for the 1st 9 months of 2023.

Speaker 1

Inventory remains higher than I would like, and we have work to do to improve our inventory days as sales expand. While I'm on the topic of inventory, our 3 commercial aerospace platforms, including the A350, A320 and 787 are all on an upward growth trajectory as our customers work to increase production rates to meet the strong demand for these aircraft. We feel that channel inventories for our material are generally aligned with the growth outlook. Remember, it is production rate increases that are being pushed out. Rates are not being cut.

Speaker 1

Channel destocking occurs when production rates are cut. The Board of Directors declared a $0.15 quarterly dividend yesterday. The dividend is payable to stockholders of record as of November 1 with a payment date of November 8. We continued repurchasing Hexcel stock, acquiring $50,000,000 of common stock during the Q3. Year to date through September 30, repurchases totaled $252,200,000 The remaining authorization under the share repurchase program as of September 30, 2024, was $234,900,000 As we discussed last quarter, fluctuating end market demand limits our ability to optimize operations and results in a higher cost base near term that is not aligned with current production levels.

Speaker 1

This dynamic is continuing to play out with new shortages developed within the greater aerospace supply chain, leading to ramp rates being pushed out by some of our customers. For example, 1 narrow body engine supplier publicly reduced their original 2024 shipment forecast from up 20% to 25% to instead be flat to up 5%, which illustrates how supply chain disruptions are impacting aircraft build rate. As we grow into our cost base, we will continue to focus on employee training and driving efficiency improvement throughout our business. While we are maintaining our 2024 guidance despite these headwinds, we expect sales and adjusted EPS to be at the lower end of the previously communicated range. Admittedly, the adjusted EPS guidance is supported by a more favorable tax rate as we now expect the 2024 tax rate to be around 19% rather than the previously communicated forecast of 22%.

Speaker 1

This lower rate reflects effective overseas and R and D tax plan. As Tom discussed, our mid term guidance issued in February should no longer be relied upon, reflecting recent impact and the continued uncertainty in the overall aerospace supply chain outlook. One final point is that we continue to expect the crude and capital expenditures to be below $100,000,000 annually in both 2025 and 2026, supporting cash generation and strong cash conversion over time. With that, let me turn the call back to Tom.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Patrick. As I mentioned at the start of today's call, I've now been with Hexcel just shy of 6 months. We have bought a home near Hexcel's corporate headquarters and I'm in the process of relocating to Stamford, Connecticut. I've admired Hexcel from afar for a long time and felt very fortunate to be selected as the next CEO. I feel exactly the same way today.

Speaker 2

This is truly an amazing and unique company with talented and engaged workforce, strong culture and truly innovative lightweighting solution. There are significant financial opportunities ahead for years to come via secular growth and cash generation. HEXO makes a product that is more relevant than ever. Light weighting future transportation is a critical need in today's world and HEXO's technology is front and center in achieving the goal for a more sustainable aviation future. Close, we are faced with some near term caution as commercial aerospace OEMs moderate their growth rate ramps due to supply chain constraints.

Speaker 2

However, the medium and long term outlook is strong for both secular and cyclical growth. Market demand is not the issue. Experience levels throughout the supply chain will continue to grow and the commercial aerospace OEM build rates will increase to meet the enormous backlog demand for new aircraft. Our focus at Hexcel remains firmly on execution of current programs, innovation to win positions on the next generation of programs, growth, cost control and cash generation. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. Our first question comes from Myles Walton from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Good morning, Phil. And thanks for taking a market overview on the 20 26 guidance. I think it's important. In terms of the end market growth that's implied in the 2024 guidance, could you give us what those new numbers are today as you sit there?

Speaker 3

It doesn't look like you'll be far off on the commercial side, but I guess defense and the industrial side I'm more curious about. And then as we look to 2025, what should we think about in terms of the divestiture headwind from the industrial side? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Great. So as we look at the 2024 growth Miles, in terms of the different programs, We saw, for example, that the A350 was pulling at 7 in Q3 and we expect that to continue in Q4. 787 was pulling at about 7 and that should also continue. The A320 was pulling just under 53. And so that those should continue.

Speaker 2

The one that core sets the outlier is math. That was pulling at 30 for most of Q3, but it was actually pulling at 36 in Q2. So September obviously was a fall off. We'll see what happens with the strike outcome and what happens in the Q4. But we basically forecasted 4th quarter with no pulls from the MAX, just to be conservative.

Speaker 2

And we'll see what happens. If the strike does get resolved before the end of the year, obviously, it won't be 0, but to be conservative, that's what we did. In terms of defense, I would say that the U. S. Defense market continues to be very strong.

Speaker 2

We mentioned the strength in the F-thirty 5 and the CH-fifty 3 ks, the Black Hawk. The Osprey, the V-twenty 2 has been a little bit soft as it winds down. But overall, the U. S. Market grew for us.

Speaker 2

Where the softness was for us was really in the European market. There were a couple of customers where sales were down for the year. And so we expect that to turn around next year. Now for 2025, the one thing that you asked about was industrial. And the Austrian plant that we are looking to sell represents about a third of our revenue in industrial.

Speaker 2

So for next year, it could be a $30,000,000 or $40,000,000 headwind. We've already taken that into account in our planning, but that's generally the outlook that we see for the Industrial.

Speaker 1

And Miles, just to kind of pick up on the guidance point, which I think you kind of started with. As you say, we should be close to the mid teens percentage on Commercial Aerospace. I mean, we might not quite make, if you call it 5% mid single digit. We should be pushing towards that as long as we have a reasonable 4th quarter in Space and Defense. Clearly, Industrial now is going to be down strong double digits for 2024.

Speaker 1

So that's kind of the picture I would paint relative to that original. Yes.

Speaker 2

And just let me add one thing on the industrial while we're on that topic is the Austrian plant really has been a focus for wind energy, recreation and marine. And so those will be markets that we will deemphasize in the future. But we're not getting out of industrial. We'll still focus opportunistically where we can use our aerospace grade carbon fibers on markets including automotive and pressure vessels, things like that. So it's not an exit of all of industrial.

Speaker 2

It's just those certain markets that no longer really align with our strategic priorities.

Speaker 4

Understood. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. And yes, Tom, I'll echo. I thought it was pretty prudent to pull that long term guidance. Just to stay on the production rates and maybe to 0 in on the MAX a little bit more, you kind of mentioned that rates aren't being cut.

Speaker 3

We're just not seeing the increases. But can you maybe just elaborate on the LEAP? I mean, we did see GE clearly talk up 25% at the beginning of the year. They're going to be down 10% this year. And then presumably, they'll be way below that initial, I don't know, call it 2,100, 2,200 next year.

Speaker 3

Is there a destocking situation that we have to worry about on LEAP? Or does that you mentioned you kind of zeroed out MAX for the quarter, does that encompass LEAP? And maybe just if you could give some color there.

Speaker 2

Well, we really align LEAP partly with the MAX, but also of course partly with the A320 because it serves both of those markets. In terms of the production rates for the MAX, we just took the conservative outlook for the quarter. We have plenty of inventory. We'll be able to support Boeing. And I think once the strike is over, Boeing will be able to basically recalibrate what the MAX production rates will be for next year.

Speaker 2

But regardless, we expect them even for the MAX to be higher next year than they were this year. And we'll wait for guidance from Boeing as to exactly what those rates will be and we will be prepared to support it.

Speaker 3

Okay. Is there any difference for the LEAP production rate there? I mean, is there a lot of inventory in the channel there specifically where we might see a destock?

Speaker 2

We're not aware of any. If anything, they've been catching up on production. So it doesn't seem like they have excess inventory and certainly they have to support the fleet as well. So I don't think destock is going to be a risk. At this point, we don't see that for the repo or the map.

Speaker 2

Okay. Perfect. Thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Akers from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for

Speaker 2

the question. Are there other parts of the portfolio, you're still reviewing as maybe areas you could shed or is this offshore facility, you think that's sort of

Speaker 5

the extent of it?

Speaker 2

We are looking across the whole portfolio. As you know, we have a fairly homogeneous product mix. We provide lightweight materials in carbon fiber composites, matrices, reinforcements, some honeycomb core and engineered core. So we don't have a lot of different parts of the portfolio that would be logical to divest. This plant in Austria was a bit of an exception.

Speaker 2

It was focused more on these industrial markets and it really didn't leverage XL Carbon Fibers. It leveraged industrial grade fibers and glass fibers. And so increasingly, it just wasn't fitting with our strategic alignment and that's why we made the decision to divest it. But broadly speaking, XL is a fairly homogeneous product mix and we don't have a lot of pieces that we could hive off.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you. And then, I guess as a follow-up, Tom, I guess what would need to happen for you to think there's enough visibility to kind of give mid term guidance again, because it feels like we've been in the situation for years now. We think the supply chain is getting better and then kind of the same issues pop up. Is there some way you think we get past that or do you think this is just sort of the new normal and visibility is going to sort of be limited?

Speaker 2

I wouldn't say it's a new normal, but certainly for the time being, there's a lot of uncertainty. And so we're going to provide guidance for 2025 in January, and that's about as far out as we can see right now. And by the way, we're going to wait to see what Boeing and Airbus announced as we get throughout the whole course of this year before we make that guidance. 2026 is just too far out right now. And so midterm guidance, I think for the timing until the supply chain settles and we get into a period of stability, midterm guidance would be very difficult for us or any company to provide.

Speaker 2

Yes. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi. Good morning, Tom and Patrick.

Speaker 4

Tom, I wanted to follow-up on your initial comments around sort of where you are in terms of the workforce. Are you at staffing levels to support the next move up to 8 a month on the A350 and when do you expect to see that?

Speaker 2

The answer is yes. And we are staffed to the schedules that Airbus put in place for A350 and A320 and also what Boeing has put in place. Since those got pushed out, though, we are a bit overstaffed right now to the current production rates, but those production rates are going to hit as we get into next year, Q1 and Q2. So it would make no sense to reduce our workforce only to have to rehire it. So we're just going to stay where we are.

Speaker 2

And we've paused new hiring, but we're maintaining our current position and we are staffed to meet the production rates that are going to be in effect for next year. And the good news is because we're already staffed, those employees are getting training and on the job experience, which is going to help them in terms of quality and on time delivery. And so I think it's going to be a win win for everybody as a result. It's putting a little bit of pressure on our margins right now, but ultimately it's going to pay dividends in terms of quality and on time delivery in the future.

Speaker 4

Perfect. And maybe Patrick, is it possible to quantify what that margin headwind has been just from a staffing standpoint alone this year?

Speaker 1

Well, I don't think we're going to get into specifics on margin points. But I mean, you can see that our adjusted EBIT level is not where we would want it to be. It is a pressure. We're carrying I mean, as Tom said, we're probably we're carrying labor that we don't need today, but it's going to come and support this and we need it in the first half of next year as we see some growth going into 2025, which we fully expect to see even though the ramp rates are delayed. It is a headwind.

Speaker 1

I don't think we want to try and get into specific margin points from that.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thanks, Patrick. Thanks, Tom.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Micas from Melius Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Scott.

Speaker 7

Tom, I wanted to ask, so for sales, the last 12 months are about 80% of 2019 levels. And you mentioned that you're a little bit overstaffed right now. I'm just wondering with all the production rate push outs that we've seen from Boeing and Airbus, why not just hold extra buffer inventory so you can ship at higher rates rather than growing your headcount in advance of production rates that we've seen shift multiple times?

Speaker 2

Right. Well, first of all, Airbus has given a pretty clear signal. And as we said, Airbus is our biggest customer for the A350 and the A320. And we want to be in a position to make sure we can deliver on their schedules for next year. The production rates have been pushing out and we do have excess inventory, so we can be conservative.

Speaker 2

But the issue is on production, headcount is so important. It takes a long time to hire the people than to train them and to get them on the job experience. And so even though we're a little bit overstaffed right now, that was the point I was making to Ken, it's going to help us next year as the rates do go up is we're going to have those people already in place, already trained, already with on the job experience. And that's something you can't take shortcuts to achieve. So while the inventory would help address the delivery of the physical product, to make that product, you need an experienced and trained workforce and that's what we've developed.

Speaker 2

I think it's going to be a real strategic asset for us as we get into next year. As I said, every single program we see, including the 7 37 MAX is going to have higher production next year than it did this year. And so all those people that we have on board are going to enable us to deliver for our customers.

Speaker 1

And the other thing to remember, Scott, is, as Tom said, we do have some extra fiber inventory noticeably fiber. But when it comes to our pre pregs, when you involve the resin, the resin has to be when we impregnate the product, have to go into cold storage, into freezers. And so there is a finite amount, a natural finite amount of capacity for that. So apart from not wanting to build huge amounts of excess inventory, there's also a natural barrier to holding too much anyway in the supply chain because of the storage issues.

Speaker 2

As I said, I'd also add, you mentioned it, but we're still only at about 80% of the production levels that we were at 2019. We have all the capital in place to support higher levels of production. And so right now, we're absorbing a lot of that fixed costs. As the production rates increase and revenues go up, we'll get a lot of operating leverage.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then Patrick, in the past, incrementals normalized have typically been in the 30% to 35% range. I know there's a lot of puts and takes, but if you don't have to do much hiring next year, you exit the facility in Austria as well. Should we be thinking about incrementals in 2025 being above the 30% to 35% range that you would normally say in an up cycle?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, we don't guide as you know anymore to incremental margins. We're always going to drive them as strongly as we can. We're going to have to assess where the growth is coming from next year. Undoubtedly, the key Commercial Aerospace programs are going to grow.

Speaker 1

We're going to have to understand what else is growing. We obviously have some cost increases and we've got that. We're carrying that sort of labor into the first half of next year, which we absolutely need that labor, but that cost is not going to go overnight. So we will drive incremental margin as strongly as we can as we always do. That's the only message we can send.

Speaker 1

But we've got a good cost base. We've got a good headcount base going into next year. I think that's the key point.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Sprouse from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Good morning. Good morning, David.

Speaker 8

Could so for the 2026 guidance or the medium term targets that you're pulling, what had you assumed for rates on maybe on 787, A350 and A320 that you're no longer assuming?

Speaker 2

Well, we didn't really lay out the specific rates and the OEMs have provided publicly what their targets are. But what I would say is, as we look over the past year and a half, the OEMs have each released at least 3 new schedules. And in each schedule, they've pushed out production rates on certain programs, particularly the MAX and even the A320 on the Airbus side. And so it's really on the basis of that and then all the uncertainty that we have here in the Q4 with supply chain and the Boeing strike is we just didn't feel that those rates that we were looking at in February of 2024 were really valid. And so therefore, the whole guidance was really no longer valid.

Speaker 2

And that's why we decided to pull it. The outlook is very good if you look at the production rate increases going forward. We just don't know exactly when they're going to hit. So we'll wait until January and then we'll provide guidance for 2025 and we think that will be a good indicator for the investment community to see the market. But right now, it's just too hard to see and certainly 2026 is just too far out given the current uncertainty in the supply chain.

Speaker 2

Okay. Patrick, a couple of smaller questions.

Speaker 8

Are you assuming working capital kind of fully reverses in the Q4 and you'll generate a fair amount of cash? Are you going to continue to kind of focus on buyback? Are you going to look to delever a bit? And the other thing on corporate, can you just is that CEO cost as to why it's running higher than kind of typical this year? And does that step down as a percent of sales next year?

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Okay. So in relation to working capital, we'll obviously drive that in the Q4 as we always do. I think I called out inventory as an area we're going to focus on not only in the Q4, but as we go into 2025 as well to try and improve our sort of days of inventory, which is really the key ratio inventory relative to the level of sales. In terms of buybacks, well, we're not going to we'll periodically look at that. I mean, in terms of our overall approach, we're going to maintain our sort of net debt to EBITDA leverage within the 1.5% to 2% range.

Speaker 1

We're at 1.9%. We're absolutely comfortable at 1.9%, but we're going to stay in that range under 2%. In terms of corporate expenses, I guess there's a couple of factors. Yes, there's the CEO transition cost which is there in 2024, which will go away that we shouldn't see any of that in 2025. And there's a little bit of intercompany profit elimination, which is sort of a swing factor between Q3 'twenty three and Q3 'twenty four, which is also part of that year over year difference.

Speaker 1

Basically, the segments made internal profit, and we have to eliminate it at the corporate level, and that just created a bit of a swing year over year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Parsons from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys. It's Gavin.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 9

Any change to the lead time from OEM build rate increases, given it seems like they'd want you to ramp up well ahead of time and then when they cut you, it's pretty close to the actual date?

Speaker 2

Right. Well, we tend to be a little bit ahead of the OEMs, about 6 months. And so we are planning our production and our staffing based on that 6 months out. And so when the rates do change, yes, it's difficult for us to respond, especially when we know the rates are going to continue to go up. It's just been pushed out.

Speaker 2

So it's just the nature of the industry. We are 6 months ahead of a lot of the structures, manufacturers and the OEMs just because we're providing materials. And so for us, it can be a little bit challenging when the rates change as we get closer to the actual production date.

Speaker 9

Okay. So no desire or ability to shorten that ramp up lead time?

Speaker 2

Not really. We do need to be out in front of the OEMs because we're providing that material. And so this is a it's a very dynamic time in the industry and rates have been changing more frequently than they normally do. But we're going to have to always be 6 months out in front of the OEM. Got it.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you. Welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 10

Good morning, Gupton. Forgive me if

Speaker 11

I missed this, but it sounded as though you have slowed a little bit down on the 737 MAX relative to Q2, but the 87 is continue to ramp sequentially. And I'm just curious, is that pretty broad based across all your intermediary customers between Hexcel and Boeing? Or are you seeing kind of very different purchasing patterns across the customer base?

Speaker 2

Well, for Boeing, obviously, the 737 with the strike, there were a lot of stop shipment orders to our plants. And so that impacted September. And so we did see a sequential slowdown from Q2 and also from the 1st 2 months of Q3. On 787, as I mentioned, it's built in Charleston, South Carolina. It's not impacted by the strike.

Speaker 2

That kept producing and they kept pulling and Boeing was very public about that. And so I would say the rates for us to pull was about 7 in Q2, it was about 7 in Q3. So it stayed about the same. And I think that was consistent. With Airbus in Q3 and we expected this, we did see a sequential slowdown in the A320 and the A350.

Speaker 2

The A350 was smaller, it was only a couple of percentage points. On the A320, it was probably about 5 aircraft per month between Q2 and Q3. That was fully expected because in Europe, August is a much slower month and so it's seasonally slower, so not unexpected.

Speaker 11

Okay. And I mean, does this because the 787 is being assembled, final assembly is at a rate well below 7 as you know. Does this just kind of pretend a shallower ramp in the first half of twenty twenty five? Or I'm just curious, how do you think about twenty twenty five

Speaker 2

directionally? Well, we'll wait to see what Boeing's final production schedules are and then we will align to meet those. They tend to again, they're pulling from us looking at what their rates are going to be 6 months out. And so that's why you could see a difference between what the current delivery rates are and the rates that we're seeing in terms of the pulp. But for 2025, we expect the production rates on 787 will go up just like on the other programs.

Speaker 2

We want to be prepared to meet that demand and we are. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pete Skibitski from Alembic Global. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning guys. Just wanted to belabor a topic from earlier as we think about the right way to think about margin rate entering 2025, Patrick, without giving us guidance. If we think about the majority of your key commercial programs being up or at least flattish entering 2025, but maybe the max still at 30 at least initially, Should we start out with the year with some margin headwind in 2025 and maybe tailwind as we get to the back half of the year assuming the MAX does start to ramp? Or would you I'm trying to consider labor in that whole calculus as well. So I was wondering

Speaker 1

I think in a broad sense that, that is probably a correct way to look at it in that we'll get more and more volume leverage as the year goes on and production rate increases. And as I think we've communicated before, volume leverage is really the key driver for Hexcel. We need to get back to the 2019 levels of revenue. We need to utilize our capacity to get the true efficiency across our farm. And that volume leverage, yes.

Speaker 1

So every 6 months, as hopefully, we start to see build rates increase, that will help our margins, yes.

Speaker 6

Okay. And just on V-twenty 2, the right way to think about it is maybe a couple more quarters of headwind on V-twenty 2. It sounds like it was fairly substantial from a sizing for you. And so I guess as that annualizes in 2025, you should maybe the underlying mean growth at Space and Defense should improve?

Speaker 1

Well, we're on over 100 different programs. There's many, many different moving parts in Space and Defense. I mean, the V-twenty 2 is essentially sunsetting next year. We think there's probably a couple of aircraft to build. So it impacted this quarter year over year, but I wouldn't overplay it in the broader picture.

Speaker 1

And we've got to assess the moving parts before we can really talk to space and defense in 2025.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Good morning, Tom, Patrick. Thank you so much. Maybe just on the 737 because it's such a hot topic. Could we go over the rates, Tom, you mentioned, you said you were at 36% in Q2, 30% in Q3. Is it 0% for Q4?

Speaker 12

And how do we think about potential optionality into 2025, what you're assuming in terms of rates?

Speaker 2

Right. Well, as I mentioned, the 30 in Q3 was really a function of September falling off in the back half of the month. And so regarding next year, I think it really depends on when the strike ends and then Boeing resetting the schedule and we'll wait to see what that is. They had plans in place for higher levels of production next year. Obviously, with the strike, it gets pushed out a little bit.

Speaker 2

And so book Boeing is presenting tomorrow, of course, the vote is tomorrow. We'll know a lot more after that in terms of 2025.

Speaker 12

That's helpful. And I know, Ken asked some questions about headcount too. Can you give us an idea of like how fungible headcount is across programs, whether you move folks to A350 from 37?

Speaker 2

Well, actually for us, it's very fungible because we make a base material carbon fiber composites resin and prepreg. And so the materials, while they are different materials, labor is fairly fungible across the programs. And so we can leverage it. If we need more Airbus material, the labor is very fungible to do that in our plants. It's just the nature of what we do.

Speaker 2

We're producing carbon fiber, pre preg and weaving and resins. And so yes, the labor is extremely fungible across program.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 10

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Noah.

Speaker 13

I guess I'm still confused on and I know it's sort of like a lot of moving pieces and hard to answer, but just in terms of what's happening with Boeing flowing down into the supply chain during the strike, I guess there was press that said they were kind of stopping the supply chain then heard a lot of suppliers say that the communication was keep things going pretty close to pre strike under, the hope that there could be a quick resolution. And then I guess on this earnings call, I've heard you say that they slowed you slightly, but then I've heard you say that they've issued stop orders. So I'm just trying to understand if Boeing's action to the supply chain or message to the supply chain during the strike has been closer to full stop or closer to keep going so that we can pick it back up where we left off whenever there's a resolution?

Speaker 2

That characterization is the right one. They issued a stop ship, but they encouraged buyers to keep building so that when the strike ended, they could continue to ship again. And that was the case. And so for us, in fact, you saw our inventory go up, that was part of it. We stopped shipping to Boeing, but we continue to build into some inventory and that's why we have a little bit higher inventory.

Speaker 2

It's one of the reasons why we have it. And that enables to meet the demand once the strike ends and once they start producing it.

Speaker 13

I see. So it's sort of both, it stops ship, but they them then counting on everyone to build on their own, I guess.

Speaker 1

And the other point, Noah, is that the 7 37 MAX, as we said many times, is not the biggest program for us. And so those two statements, we did have some soft orders during September, but the overall impact in the Q3 was marginal. So those are consistent statements and in line with what Tom said about building inventory. So the bubble chart that's in the investor deck now, I kind of it clearly illustrates the relative magnitude of the program, the 350, the 320 and the 787, all bigger than the MAX with its sort of build rate at the lower end of that 200000 to 500000 or the ship set at the lower end of that 200000 to 500000 range.

Speaker 10

So I

Speaker 1

think everything Tom has said is completely consistent.

Speaker 13

No, that makes a ton of sense. And my question really was an effort to understand the broader ecosystem a little better, but I appreciate that. And then just one other item, the industrial assets that you've discussed disposing of or selling. Is that far down a process and close to complete or that's a process you're just now starting?

Speaker 2

I'd say we're probably midway through the process. It's something we initiated a couple months ago, but we felt it was the right time to be public about it, because we wanted to be open and transparent with our customers as well as with our employees. And so the process is underway.

Speaker 13

And do you Patrick, is there approximate revenue and EBITDA you have for that?

Speaker 1

It's about a third of our industrial business. And quite honestly, the margin impact is going to be low. That's what I would say.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Duschl from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, Patrick. Sorry if I missed it, but was

Speaker 14

there any restocking benefit this quarter from going to 7 per month on the A350 and 787? Or would that potentially be a tailwind later on?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, we weren't I mean, the 350 was sorry, did you say 787 or 350?

Speaker 2

Both.

Speaker 1

Okay. I mean, they were reasonably flat. I think, as Tom said, both of them slipped down slightly in the Q3 from the Q2. So we didn't really see we saw more of a consistent pattern of delivery into those programs. The $350,000,000 a marginal slowdown because of the European vacations, but only marginal, the 3 20 impact, I think, as Tom said, was more significant.

Speaker 1

So I wouldn't really call out a stocking impact either way on those 2 787 or 3 50 programs.

Speaker 14

Okay. And then Tom, it seems like China has become pretty dominant in supplying carbon fiber in a lot of industries outside of aerospace. And it looks like Airbus has brought in Chinese structure suppliers in a fairly meaningful way at this point, I think with AVIC in particular. I guess my question is, do you see any risk over the longer term that you start to see the Chinese become a more meaningful competitor in the carbon fiber world on the aerospace side, particularly on in next gen aircraft? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Right. Well, certainly on industrial grade fibers, China has increased capacity and that has had an impact on price for industrial grade fibers. But aerospace grade fibers are very different. And there are no Chinese makers today of industrial grade carbon fiber. And it'd be a pretty big leap for that to happen.

Speaker 2

So while they can compete certainly on industrial markets, they aren't competing on aerospace markets today and probably will not do so for the foreseeable future. Thank you.

Operator

Welcome. Our last question will come from Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 15

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 15

Hey, Tom, you may have mentioned it, you certainly mentioned it on the call this morning that the wide bodies, the key ones are pulling at about 7 per month. When did that step up in your mind from that sort of 4% to 5% rate that we were at near to the bottom?

Speaker 2

Well, you go back to kind of early 2023 and the 7.87% was in the kind of 3.4% range. And then it started stepping up progressively through 2023 and it got into the 7 range as we got into 20 24. So that was the timeframe. And on the A350, you got to really go back to 2022, it was in the 4.5 range, stepped up to the $6,000,000 range in $23,000,000 and it's kind of moved into the $7,000,000 range in $24,000,000 That's the 3rd piece with it.

Speaker 15

Okay. That's helpful. And then on defense, historically, the Q4 for defense related revenues is typically a lot better than the Q3. I would say, one, is that what you're expecting? And then I know you have a decent outlook for new program growth over the next couple of years, some of that being international.

Speaker 15

Is that all still holding in your mind as you look ahead?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, defense overall is strong, unfortunately, because of some of the geopolitical pressures that are out there. Q4 has been stronger and we're going to push hard to make that true again this year. And then as we go forward into next year, yes, the big programs around like F-thirty 5, Stage 53 ks, Black Hawk, some of our European programs, we expect to see continued strength in those. And so overall, yes, we're very bullish on Space and Defense.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Hexcel Q3 2024
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