PACCAR Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 22, 2024

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be in a listen only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded. And if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr.

Operator

Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feitz, Chief Executive Officer Harry Skippers, President and Chief Financial Officer and Bryce Poplotsky, Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen only mode.

Speaker 1

Certain information presented today will be forward looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings at the Investor Relations page of paccar.com. I would now like to introduce Brettson Feit.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. Harry, Bryce, Ken and I will update you on our excellent Q3 financial results and other business highlights. I'd like to start by thanking PACCAR's wonderful employees who deliver PACCAR's high quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers all around the world. PACCAR earned a strong $972,000,000 on revenues of $8,200,000,000 for an industry leading after tax return on revenue of 11.8 percent.

Speaker 2

PACCAR Parts 3rd quarter revenues increased 5% to $1,660,000,000 and pre tax profits were 407,000,000 dollars PACCAR Financial earned pre tax income of $107,000,000 in the 3rd quarter. We estimate this year's U. S. And Canadian Class 8 market to be around 260,000 trucks and next year to be in the range of 250,000 to 280,000 vehicles. The vocational segment where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders is strong and is expected to remain strong with continued infrastructure investments.

Speaker 2

The less than truckload market is performing well, while the truckload segment seems to have stabilized. Peterbilt and Kenworth's combined Class 8 share has increased from 29.5% to 31.1%. Kenworth and Peterbilt's dealer inventory is a healthy 2.9 months. Kenworth and Peterbilt increased their medium duty market share in the 1st 9 months of this year to 17.2% compared to 14.5% last year. In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16 tons segment are estimated to be around 300,000 vehicles.

Speaker 2

The 2025 market is expected to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000 trucks. Last month at the IAA Truck Show in Germany, DAF introduced its new 2025 lineup of trucks, which improve fuel economy by 3% and use advanced driver assistance systems to enhance safety. In addition, the 2025 vehicles feature PACCAR's connected truck solutions, which bring great value to the customer. The South American above 16 ton market is projected to be in a range of 110,000 to 120,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. PACCAR's premium lineup of trucks are performing well for customers in South America, especially in the important Brazilian market.

Speaker 2

PACCAR and its dealers are delivering excellent trucks and transportation solutions to our customers and we are excited about the future. Thank you. Harry will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harry?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 44,900 trucks during the Q3. We expect 4th quarter deliveries to be around 42,000 vehicles. More production days in Europe will be offset by fewer production days due to normal holidays in North America and some supplier related limitations. Pega parts delivered 3rd quarter gross margins of 30.1%.

Speaker 3

Parts quarterly sales grew by 5% compared to the same period last year and are expected to grow around 4% in the 4th quarter. Pega Parts' focus on expanding its customer base and providing a full range of transportation solutions is delivering sales growth in a smaller aftersales market. Pega Parts just opened a new distribution center in Maersbach, Germany. This new distribution center increases the number of dealers and customers benefiting from receiving parts on the same or next day in the important German market. Truck Parts and Other gross margins were 16.6% in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 3

We anticipate 4th quarter gross margins to be in the range of 15.5% to 16%. Becker Financial Services results in the 3rd quarter benefited from excellent portfolio quality. Pretax income was $107,000,000 The used truck market has normalized in North America, while remaining soft in Europe. PACCAR Financial is a market leader in supporting customers with innovative technologies that provide seamless credit application and loan servicing processes. PACCAR's net income

Speaker 4

of

Speaker 3

$3,300,000,000 in the 1st 9 months of this year generated a strong $3,200,000,000 operating cash flow. PACCAR's return on invested capital was an excellent 25% in the 1st 9 months of this year. This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $760,000,000 $800,000,000 and research and development expenses will be $450,000,000 to $470,000,000 Next year, we estimate the company will invest $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 in capital projects and $480,000,000 to $530,000,000 in research and development projects. PACCAR continues to expand manufacturing capacity at our factories in Europe, United States, Mexico, Brazil and Australia. These investments are supporting PACCAR's growth as well as our customers' success.

Speaker 3

PACCAR's investments in its premium truck lineup, efficient manufacturing capacity, best in class parts and financial services businesses and the continued development of advanced technologies position the company for industry leading performance in all phases of the business cycle. Thank you. We would be pleased to answer your questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Steven Volkmann with Jefferies. Steven, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you so much. Good morning and good afternoon. I'm curious if we can talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the pricing side. I know we need to normally wait for the Q to get a sense of that, but if you can give us a quick preview of what we're seeing in pricing and kind of how you're expecting that to flow through in the Q4 as well?

Speaker 2

Sure. If you think about price cost, it's kind of price was flat in Q3 and costs were up 3%. So when I think about that's on the truck side. If you think about how we look forward at that, we think that the vocational market is going to remain strong. We think the less than truckload market is doing really well in addition.

Speaker 2

And then the truckload sector still seems to be feeling its pressure, but it does seem to have stabilized. And so we're kind of starting to see signs that maybe that tension will release over the coming months and next year, which could be good for us in terms of price versus cost as we look into next year.

Speaker 5

Okay, good. Maybe that starts to answer my follow-up, which is that I'm curious, overall, you're sort of flattish globally with your market forecast for next year. Maybe you'll gain a little bit of market share like you usually do. But that Q4 run rate of 15.5% to 16.% gross margin, is that a good sort of base to think about for 2025? Or is there something that could move that one way or the other?

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 2

I think if you go and look at what's been going on this year, right, the year started exceptionally strong in all sectors. And I think maybe the truckload cares about a tougher road to hold for a little while here. Maybe what you'd expect to see in 2025 is a mere image of that where the year starts a little bit like it's finishing and then accelerates I think from there. Timing exactly, I don't know that. But it does feel like that's where we're starting to see the stabilization for the truckload sector, just significant.

Speaker 2

And so we would expect to see some growth over the coming year.

Speaker 5

Super. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 6

All right.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thanks. Hi, Rob.

Speaker 2

Good morning, guys. So I guess

Speaker 7

just to follow-up on the question, You look at gross margin still at very healthy levels really historically, but down sequentially. Price was kind of flat you said year over year and costs creep up a little bit. Is there anything that really should otherwise be called out in the sequential move in gross margin? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I don't think there's anything different that I would call out for that. I think the thing that's been really good for us is the product introductions we've done over the past few years. I mean, it's just stunning how great the trucks are right now. The fuel economy is outstanding. The reliability is outstanding.

Speaker 2

I mean, the customer desire for the trucks is very high as well. So I think that what we'll see is people's desire to have those trucks as the market opens up.

Speaker 7

All right, perfect. And then I've asked you this before, and I'm not sure you'll give me a different answer now, but your differentiation is pretty good in vocational. I mean, it's a product that has a lot more has variability to it, let's say, and you guys are real leaders there. Is that at all a margin tailwind for you into next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a very good point, Rob, and yes, it is. I would say that's a positive statement to make. I think one of the things that we look at right now is our inventory is in very good shape as we mentioned. And over half of our inventory is vocational trucks that are at bodybuilders right now. So we feel well positioned overall with inventory and then we know that our vocational inventory is strong.

Speaker 2

We feel like that is good for our business.

Speaker 7

And then vocational can be up next year and I'll stop there. I apologize. Thank you.

Speaker 2

I think vocational will continue to run strong next year.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Steven, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. You mentioned that your inventory is what you'd characterize as healthy at 2.9 months. I guess, can you talk about where that 2.9 months is relative to your ideal targets for this point in the cycle? Do you think there's sort of inventory reductions that you have to make?

Speaker 8

And just curious kind of what you're seeing from competitors in that perspective? And are they needing to take inventory out? And is that putting some price pressure into the market?

Speaker 2

Well, I'll let them talk about their inventory positions. But for our inventory position, we feel very good at 2.9 months. That's a very healthy level for us, especially as I mentioned to Rob, the fact that our vocational inventory takes up a chunk of that. So we feel quite comfortable with our inventory levels and our build rates being well positioned.

Speaker 3

And it's even come down a little bit during the quarter. At the end of June, we were at 3.3 months and currently we're at 2.9 months.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just you mentioned about some potential reacceleration in the second half of the year. How are you thinking about the concept of a pre buy at this point? Is that kind of at all in the thinking or is it more just sort of the freight market recovering? And if it's a pre buy in your thinking, what do you think it will take to kick start that?

Speaker 8

Is it just timing and getting closer to another 'twenty six, 'twenty seven timeframe? Or does it actually also require some degree of improvement in the freight market?

Speaker 2

I think we're going to see some improvement in the freight market. Some of the carriers have started to leave the market, which is something that's been anticipated, I would say. I also think that as you think about it, there will be people's trucks have gotten older and there will be people interested in making sure they're buying enough trucks for the next several years. So that's going to take an effect I think as we go through 2025 and add to 20 25's growth. Okay.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. You bet.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Tami, please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, thank you so much. So my first question is on Europe. So your outlook for next year, I think it's down 5% at the midpoint for retail sales. And this year, your deliveries are down more than the retail sales expectation. So as we think about next year, do you plan on delivering to demand?

Speaker 9

Or do you expect to under produce even next year? So how should we think about production in Europe next year?

Speaker 3

But, Tammy, yes, European volumes have been down a little bit more than the market this year. That was really strong in Central and Eastern Europe, where the market has been more affected by the war in Ukraine and the economy is a lot slower there than in some other parts of Europe. We expect things to continue at that pace more or less into as we enter next year. And then we'll see how it progresses during the year.

Speaker 2

Yes, exactly what Harry said. And I think the other thing is the team in Europe has done a great job on price discipline with the great new trucks. And so I think those two things combined is we feel pretty well positioned in Europe too that we will build to demand next year.

Speaker 9

Got it. That is very helpful. And my second question, going back to pricing, I think you said flattish this quarter. Just trying to get a sense of did you open order books for next year? If so, what any reads on what pricing you're seeing for next year?

Speaker 2

Sure, Tammy. I mean, obviously, it's not so binary as opening and closing the order books, but we did have a significant engagement with a bunch of customers at the recent ATA show. So if you wanted to call that the normal cadence of fleets thinking about their purchases. We had great conversations with them, a lot of enthusiasm for the trucks and kind of an expectation of purchases next year. I think they're obviously because of the condition they're all in, it puts some price cost tension into the world right now.

Speaker 2

But I also feel like that's going to relieve find some relief as we go into 2025.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Angel, please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to the margin conversation, in particular, just understanding the price cost dynamics. So you came in ahead of your expectations on total units for the Q3 and price seems to be maybe relatively stable, all things considered. But the 16.6% margin implies decrementals on a pretax basis of over 50%, which is kind of above the levels that I think of as kind of normal. So was there anything that surprised to the upside or that's leading to kind of higher decrementals than you would have typically expected?

Speaker 10

And then similar kind of line of question for 4Q in terms of help us kind of bridge the gap like it's not price degradation, what's kind of causing the margin contraction?

Speaker 2

I don't know, Harry, you want

Speaker 1

to take a swing? Yes. I think mostly

Speaker 3

any difference with what we saw a quarter ago would be at the cost side, where we had some cost elements. There were some supplier issues at that point in time, some other operating costs. So maybe the cost side was the difference, if you want to point to something?

Speaker 1

Also lower volumes. Yes.

Speaker 2

But I think when we're looking at that, we are looking at the totality of this thing. And it feels like these are pretty healthy levels for us given this point in the cycle and where we see ourselves sitting. So it feels pretty good.

Speaker 10

Got it. And then maybe, similar dynamic or just a conversation around the parts profitability. Just what do you see there in terms of that business as you think about, as we go into 2025, just in terms of profitability? It seems like it's stepped up nicely in the or it kind of remained relatively stable, I guess, from 2Q to 3Q. But that was an area that we're seeing a little bit of softness as we were talking about it last quarter.

Speaker 10

So just what's kind of the ongoing trends there?

Speaker 2

I think the macro thing to think about in the parts market right now is that there's a smaller overall after sales market this year. And our team has just done a tremendous job of holding excellent margins in that smaller market and seeing growth in fact, right, as we talked about 5% growth this quarter. So I couldn't be more happy with the work they're doing, the systems they're bringing in, the new PDCs they're opening and how closely they're working with all the customers to grow that business. So a great story there for the parts team.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jamie Cook with Churit Securities. Jamie, please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning. Sorry, just to follow-up on the parts aftermarket. Can you comment specifically what price cost was like you did for truck? That would be helpful. And then I guess my other question would be, as you think about trucks, you said price flat, cost up 3%.

Speaker 11

Was there any major variances sort of by region? And there's been this thesis that everyone would act more rational this cycle as some of your peers are now spun off public companies? Just any comment on what how you're seeing behavior sort of this cycle versus previous cycles? Thank you.

Speaker 3

So starting with parts, Jamie, for parts, price was up 3% and cost was up 4% in the quarter. And your other question was about

Speaker 2

Yes. I think if you think about the disciplines of the all the other OEMs being public, Listen, it's a competitive world, but PACCAR has this advantage of having premium products that people really do desire. And so the team has close relationships with the customers and feel like it puts us in a good position. And as we noted in the beginning of our commentary, we have best in class performance because of the performance of our products for our customers and we expect that will continue.

Speaker 11

I guess just a follow-up question Preston, understanding your outlook for 2025 and it sounds like things should get better in the back half of the year. As we progress through the cycle and we get a pre buy ahead of 2027, is there any reason to believe PACCAR cannot deliver above average incremental margins like you did prior to this most recent sort of mini downturn given just the new product introductions etcetera?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, Jaeme, it's a great question, a great way to frame it. I like the way you frame it. I think we can deliver excellent performance in the coming years. So I agree with you.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 6

You bet.

Operator

The next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. David, please go

Speaker 2

ahead. Yes.

Speaker 12

Thank you for the time. I have one short term, one maybe a little bit longer term. On the builds sorry, deliveries for the 4th quarter, the 42,000, the geographic composition of that, obviously, historically, Europe will step up. Are we saying even with the extra days in Europe, we won't get a step up in Europe? So that's sort of flattish and maybe other is flattish and sequentially U.

Speaker 12

S, Canada is the down 11% to get us to 42%. I'm just trying to be thoughtful about the geographic mix when I think about the margins.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, David, you're not off on that. I think that it's relatively flattish, 3Q to 4Q for Europe. And, again, we've gotten our inventory in a very good position there. And then I would expect that we're maybe it's up slightly even and then we're going to see in the what we're going to see for the U.

Speaker 2

S. Is a normal holiday cadence. And obviously, there was a couple of hurricanes that came through, which did affect some suppliers. And so we're working through that right now with them. And the supply base is doing a great job of sorting that out and it's just something we got to kind of sort out as a team.

Speaker 3

On a per day basis, Europe is flattish going into the Q4, but the more production days, I think it provides a couple of 1,000 more trucks in Europe compared to the 3rd quarter in the Q4.

Speaker 12

Well, that's the whole thing. If it's a couple of 1,000 more to keep the whole company down to 42, I'm just trying to figure out is North America, sorry, U. S. And Canada down 20 sequentially? I'm just trying to get a sense of the magnitude.

Speaker 12

That could explain the margin pressure a little bit in the mix.

Speaker 3

Not 20%, but there's what is it, 7 or 8 fewer working days in the Q4 in North America.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the issue of the pre buy, I'm sorry, go ahead, Preston.

Speaker 6

No, go ahead.

Speaker 12

Well, I was just moving on to the second question I had about the pre buy. A major engine supplier we hear could be pulling their engine for 20 27 earlier, which could actually inspire maybe some buying of their engine in 2025. So I just wanted to see if you'd enlighten us on that at all, if that is maybe what's playing out, which could help 2025. And then second on the inventory for the vocational, you mentioned the bodybuilders who continue to be a bottleneck. So the inventory sitting out there in vocational does lead argue have a customer, they're just the bottleneck of the bodybuilder to finish off the job.

Speaker 12

Is there something going on with the bodybuilders that can sort of break that through a little bit? And if not, is the level of vocational trucks sitting there waiting for a bodybuilder an impediment to you being able to grow your vocational business more in 2025?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that what you've seen is there was this impulse throughout 2024 in the vocational market and I think that's maybe stabilized at a high level. So I think people are doing a job, a good job of catching up in what the bodybuilder capacity has been and is. So they're getting that sorted out is what it feels like David. Obviously there's some components on vocational trucks that are unique and some of those are in tight supply right now, which sends some throttle on it.

Speaker 2

All of that together means that I think 2025 will continue strong in the vocational sector. There's still infrastructure spending. The country is doing well. And so I would expect vocational to remain a strong point for us. And as you well know, right, we have over 40% market share in that sector.

Speaker 2

So that will be good for PACCAR in 2025. And coming back around to your first question, we have a great relationship with Cummins. We build our own engines. We are well positioned for today's emission standards as well as the upcoming emission standards and feel like we'll be able to offer our customers the right products for the upcoming markets and don't have any concerns about how that's going to play out.

Speaker 12

Okay. I'll leave it there. Thank you so much.

Speaker 3

Great.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Jerry.

Speaker 13

Yes. Hi. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. I'm wondering if you can just talk about on the cost side, your teams have been sprinting really hard to get trucks out the door when supply is tight. And I'm wondering based on the cost of materials that are now flowing through the factories, when do you think we could see per truck costs actually coming down?

Speaker 13

And if the current steel price cost curve holds in particular, do you think we could be looking at per truck cost potentially tailwind at some point in early 2025 on a year over year basis?

Speaker 2

Gary, that's a possibility. I think there's a little bit of labor that factors into here too that you've looked at on a year over year basis, which is something that's been incurred by the industry as a whole, including our supply base much written about. So I think we'll just have to watch how those two things interplay with each other in the coming 6 months.

Speaker 13

So and then in terms of the mix of what you folks have in backlog, can you talk about that? You mentioned earlier in the conversation, the margin step down has been driven a large by mix of product. How does the mix of what you folks have left in backlog look compared to what we shipped this quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes. We still see the same ratios of really strong truck versus tractor production. Truck production is still running around 50%. So that's above a historical number, but very good numbers for us.

Speaker 13

And you folks have improved your truck profitability significantly cycle over cycle. In the past, we've seen margins peak to trough, truck gross margins range from 400 to 1,000 basis points peak to trough. How do you think the higher margin profile that you folks have now will translate into truck cyclicality going forward? What's the impact on fixed versus variable cost versus history? Any comments that you care to make on that question?

Speaker 2

Sure, Jerry. I think it's a great observation on your part. I think that what we see is the company is performing at a structurally stronger level. I think that's because of the great investments and the efforts of the team to provide excellent products for our customers. I mean they really are helping our customers make money and they are desired by the drivers.

Speaker 2

So that's a nice position to be in. I think PACCAR's lean culture and operating disciplines are healthy and good for the company and good for our operating performance, good for our customers in terms of us being a lean operating company and good for our shareholders. So you're right in making the observation and we think that observation will hold true.

Speaker 13

Okay. And lastly, some of your competitors are talking about some pretty small incremental cost increases on EPA 2027 versus what most of us expect. I'm wondering if you could just weigh in on your expectations, especially since you're already up and running in California. Can you talk about what you folks are seeing and expecting?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. First of all, I see you even observed the fact that we have a certified engine in California as we're the 1st manufacturer to do that. So we're well positioned for any of the regulatory to do that. So we're well positioned for any of the regulatory conditions that we encounter. Our thoughts is it could be in the 10,000 to 15,000 range right now subject to change, depends on what the regulatory agencies do, but that feels like the right framing point for the cost as we look at 2027.

Speaker 3

And Jerry, bear in mind, it's not only about material cost, it's also the extended warranties that kick in with EPA-twenty 7. This will have an effect on the cost levels as well.

Speaker 13

Absolutely. Thank you, everyone.

Speaker 2

You bet. Great questions.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tim Syme with Raymond James. Tim, please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you. First one, Preston for you. Maybe I'm just curious in terms of the conversations that you and the team are having with your truckload customers as and you think about kind of the order progression as we go in coming months, it seems and I don't know if you would agree with this and obviously you've lived through lots of these truck cycles over time. But just with respect to kind of this election uncertainty and the range of political and kind of regulatory outcomes that may come about, I'm just curious, do you think there's more I mean, there's always this notion of there's a kind of a wait and see around the election, but it does seem like from our standpoint anyway, maybe this year is a little bit greater.

Speaker 6

So I'm curious, can you share that thought? And if so, would you you think it's fair that maybe there's a potential for more of a delayed order cadence as we look into 2025?

Speaker 2

I think that we have some really smart customers and our observations in those conversations is they think very clearly about their economic conditions that they're operating in. And I think they know that there needs to be a steadiness to their buying cycle of trucks because it's good for their operating models. And so they've been probably reluctant on the truckload side to be able to make the capital truck purchases they wanted for the last little while just based upon rates. And I think they're kind of hopeful that that's going to change. And I think far more important than anything like an election is when those rates change, then they will probably increase the cadence of their buys.

Speaker 2

And I think that that's what they're thinking about.

Speaker 4

Got

Speaker 6

it. Okay. And then just with respect to the deliveries in North America, it seems from some of the 3rd party data that maybe the Q3 you had a little bit heavier on medium duty relative to heavy duty. Is there any normalization that may occur in Q4 or is that is it not enough to call out in terms of from a mix perspective as you think 3Q to 4Q?

Speaker 2

Harry, you were talking you and I were talking about that, weren't you?

Speaker 3

Yes. So medium duty volumes

Speaker 2

were a little bit higher

Speaker 3

in the Q3 with some catch up, mirror related to some extent. So in the Q4, we expect a more normal medium bird savvy mix than like we used

Speaker 6

to see. Got it. Okay. And I assume, Harry, that there's not the implications from a profit perspective aren't what they would have been several years ago, just given the improvement in medium beauty side. Is that fair?

Speaker 3

The margins on our medium beauty products are well in line with the heavies these days. Nice observation, Tim. As a percentage, they're smaller trucks, but the percentage is very similar.

Speaker 6

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carl Menjes with Citi. Carl, please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 14

I was just curious on the R and D guide for next year, just how do we interpret the step up in R and D guidance for next year, especially given market we could be in kind of a flat to slightly up market global market for you guys next year?

Speaker 2

Well, if you think about where we're at this year and if you took a midpoint at 460 and then you said if you took the midpoint on something like 5 or a little over 500, it's not that big of a change. And the way we think about R and D is when we have important good projects to work on, be they powertrain or new truck systems or connectivity or electronics or all the things that will make our trucks more profitable for the customers, then we make those investments and this is the right level of R and D investment for that.

Speaker 14

Got it. And then I know you've talked about a strong vocational market into next year, more related to Class 8, but just any thoughts on how we be thinking about the medium duty market next year in North America?

Speaker 2

I think we should see a healthy medium duty market again next year in North America as well. I think it's been good this year and there is as you just kind of indicated, there's some portion of that which hits into the vocational market. But overall, it should be a good market remain a good market is probably the right way to say it, Kyle.

Speaker 6

All right. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

The next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Chad, please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi. Good morning, guys. I just have

Speaker 2

a question

Speaker 4

for you on hey, how are you? So just a question for you on what you're embedding for your 25 North America truck guide. Just trying to think through the split between vocational versus tractor. I think you mentioned your truck was about 50% to 24%. Is that the same or a little bit higher?

Speaker 4

Any pre buy embedded? And then I think you mentioned that the progression of price cost will go into a worse than 25%. So is it fair to say that the Q4 is probably the trough for TPNO gross margins?

Speaker 2

I think what we'll expect to see is that the vocational market remains strong, but there's probably a pickup in the truckload sector. So the ratio of tractor to truck might move around a little bit towards heavier tractor as we go through the year next year. See how that starts and when that takes effect as you mentioned. But I think that what we're seeing now as we said as we started this year in a really strong position, we're finishing at a point where the truckload carriers are still feeling tension. And as we get into next year, into 2025, they're going to want to continue to buy trucks, keep their fleets at the right ages.

Speaker 2

And so we'll see some increase in the truckload purchases throughout the year. Timing for that, we'll see.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. And then a second question for you on the FINCO business. Just how should we think about that going into the end of the year and in 'twenty five? And more specifically, just looking at like the interest and other borrowing expenses, it seems like there's a big step up and just trying to think through how that evolves?

Speaker 3

The finance company continues to show strong performance. We have a very healthy portfolio of mainly A and B customers. Past dues remain low, seeing a little credit losses, but that's normal at this point in the cycle. So as we get into next year, we will continue to see strong performance of the finance company. Interest rates, we are time hedged there.

Speaker 3

So we issue medium term notes in line with the leases and the financing contracts that we offer. So we don't have a lot of exposure there.

Speaker 15

And the portfolio this is Bryce. I'd just like to add that our portfolio is growing very nicely because we have a market right now where the banks are getting out at times and we're seeing a little bit less competition. Our market share is up actually nicely here in quarter and we expect strong continued performance in our business here.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead, Jeff.

Speaker 10

Thank you

Speaker 16

very much. Hey, everybody.

Speaker 4

I want to talk

Speaker 16

a little bit about thank you, thank you and congratulations. I want to talk a little bit about the South American growth is going to be exceeding that in the near term for North America and Europe. Does this at all change the specs on the trucks in terms of what you're seeing and how that might affect ASP?

Speaker 2

If you think about the trucks specific to Brazil, which is the largest market in South America we're participating in, is it that really is the dock truck that we're using there. So and that truck is kind of effectively the same truck as we get in Europe. And we have had to put together certain specs for them where they're operating in different operating conditions, more 6x4s, more sugarcane kind of applications, lumber hauling applications. So it's a bit of heavier duty. So maybe the selling price is a slight bit higher there.

Speaker 2

But in general, I tend to think about them like a European truck.

Speaker 16

Okay. And then as we transition in 2025, at some point to a market where maybe truckload LTL is growing a little faster than vocational and international. How might that be affecting ASP as we work our way through 2025?

Speaker 2

And I wouldn't put too much energy into trying to figure out the nuance to that if it was me. I think that you could obviously think that a high content vocational truck is more expensive than a maybe a standard 6x4 tractor, but I wouldn't probably try to parse that together.

Speaker 3

There's probably

Speaker 5

a

Speaker 3

higher variety and a bigger range in prices for vocational trucks than you would see for on highway. Yes.

Speaker 2

And then if you keep the vocational segment and you start thinking about the medium duty participation in that, I think you'd have a hard thing to kind of suss out there.

Speaker 16

No, fair enough. I was just looking for some context and that's fine. So that's my one question.

Speaker 2

Great question. Thanks, Jeff. Good to talk to you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Please go ahead, Michael.

Speaker 6

Great. Yeah. Thank you, gentlemen, for taking my questions. Just you guys have really been investing in the business, in your trucks, in your facilities. I'm just curious how much more capacity can you bring on to serve the U.

Speaker 6

S. Market? Is it 10% to 15%? Is it 20% more than what you guys could do previously? And is this higher capacity?

Speaker 6

Is this available in 2025 in the second half if we see that ramp? Or is this more of a 2026 that you guys can raise capacity in some of these facilities?

Speaker 2

Hey, Mike, thanks for the comments. They're nice to hear. The thing we're doing with our capital expenditures, as we noted, is we are making investments in the factories and that's not a new thing, right? We've been doing that over the past few years in anticipation of where the markets will be in our growth. So some of those capacity investments are in and complete, others are underway.

Speaker 2

So we have all the capacity we need for the markets in the coming years. We will not be capacity constrained and we do anticipate growth. So that feels really positive.

Speaker 6

Okay, helpful. And then just I guess the last question. You guys talked a little bit about a normalization in the used market in North America, a little weaker in Europe. So maybe you can kind of flesh that out. And I'm curious if the spread between the new price for a truck, let's say, in 2025 versus what you're seeing for a used truck right now, is that spread kind of normal?

Speaker 6

Is it wider than usual? Just curious if you guys are seeing anything there in the market? Thank you.

Speaker 3

As the used truck market normalizes, also that spread becomes more normal.

Speaker 2

If I was to think about it, I would think that what we've seen is, as we said, is used truck prices have found their space right now. And I think the trucks in the used market will look pretty good to us in 2025. And like we said, we also expect the new trucks to improve in 2025 in terms of market outlook. So it feels like they're staying together, right? There's not a big separation between new and used.

Speaker 3

And just looking at our inventory position in North America, that new truck inventory is at very, very healthy levels for us. So that gives us confidence that we'll be able to operate at good levels there.

Speaker 6

That is helpful. Thanks, gentlemen. Just the last one to squeeze in. Just on parts, I'm curious if there's anything you guys would call out that's weighed on the margin for parts that might normalize or go away next year? Like if next year, parts are up 5%, do you think the profit for parts can grow more than 5%?

Speaker 6

Just kind of curious on the puts and takes of what you guys have been seeing the last this year and how we think about that for 2025? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. That's a good question, fun to think about. I think as we noted in our comments, right, there is a smaller overall aftersales market in 2024. So purely the number of parts overall has gone down that are being sold, but the parts team has grown the business even in that environment. So I think as the overall aftersales market picks up with increased freight activity, that will be good for the business and should be a tailwind for us.

Speaker 2

Emily?

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Scott, please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hey, thanks guys. I just want to follow-up on the some of the gross margin commentary. So you had a comment that first half would be pressured and then improve in the second half next year. I'm wondering, was that a year over year or a sequential comment? Meaning, do we see further sequential gross margin pressure in the first half from where we are now?

Speaker 15

Or was that just purely a year over year comment?

Speaker 2

Yes, Scott, you might have heard more than we said even there. I think what we actually said was we feel like we will see improvement through the course of 2025. I can't be so specific to know how that's going to play off, but it does feel like it will be a mirror image of this year. So the strength we saw in the first half in 2024 will be and then the normalization in the 3rd, Q4 here likely will be inverted as we get into 2025, but the specifics of that, they're hard to detail out.

Speaker 15

Yes. I mean, ultimately, I'm trying to figure out if you think that this Q4 is the bottom for gross margin.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think I understand that. And I think your intuitions aren't far off.

Speaker 15

Okay. And then just lastly, any thoughts on how you're sort of thinking about approaching the market next year? Is it in terms of market share growth or a little bit more focused on price? How are you balancing that for next year?

Speaker 2

We like to see market share growth and we like to see ourselves perform well as a company for our shareholders. So we'll be pursuing both of those next year.

Speaker 15

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 2

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

Speaker 1

I'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you, Emily.

Operator

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
PACCAR Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00