Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 24, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon. Welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher and Company's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Participants have been placed on listen only mode. Your lines will be open for questions following the presentation.

Operator

Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward looking statements provided on this call. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Operator

Please refer to the information concerning forward looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10 ks, 10 Q and 8 ks filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties. In addition, for reconciliations of the non GAAP measures discussed on this call, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr, Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher and Company.

Operator

Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 'twenty four earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO other members of the management team and heads of our operating divisions. Before I get to my comments about our financial results, I'd like to acknowledge the damage and devastation caused by the recent storms and floods. Our thoughts are with those impacted by these events, including our own Gallagher colleagues.

Speaker 1

Our professionals are hard at work helping clients sort through their coverages, file claims and ultimately get losses paid. I'm really honored to be part of a company and an industry with such an important responsibility, helping families, businesses and communities rebuild and restore their lives, and that's a noble cause. Okay. On to my comments regarding our financial performance. We had a great Q3.

Speaker 1

For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 13% growth in revenue, 6% organic growth, which does not include interest income, reported net earnings margin of 15.5%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 31.9 percent, up 123 basis points year over year. GAAP earnings per share of $1.90 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.72 up 16% year over year, another fantastic operating quarter by the team. Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 13%. Organic growth was right in line with our expectations at 6%, which as we forecasted reflects about a point of timing headwind from those large life cases we have highlighted over the past couple of quarters.

Speaker 1

Doug will provide you with some good news from October related to these sales in his remarks. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 137 basis points to 33.6%, which was better than our IR day expectations. Let me give some insights behind our brokerage segment organic. Within our PC retail operations, we delivered 5% in the U. S.

Speaker 1

And 7% outside the U. S. Internationally, Australia and New Zealand led the way with organic of more than 10%. The U. K.

Speaker 1

Was up 6% and Canada was flattish. Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of about 4% and a few points higher excluding the timing differences from the large life case sales. Shifting to our Reinsurance, Wholesale and Specialty businesses, overall organic of 8%, so very strong growth whether retail, wholesale or reinsurance. Next, let me provide some thoughts on the PC insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Global 3rd quarter renewal premiums, which include both rate and exposure were up 5% and little change from the 6% we discussed at our September IR Day update a few weeks ago.

Speaker 1

Most lines and geographies had very similar renewal premium changes through all 3 months of the quarter with a couple of exceptions. September casualty renewal increases outside the U. S. Were lower relative to July August, driven by changes in business mix. Additionally, large account and E and S property renewal premium increases were a bit less in September than the 1st 2 months of the quarter, but neither of these appear to be a trend.

Speaker 1

Thus far in October, we are seeing large account property and international casualty renewal premium increases higher than September. Breaking down 3rd quarter renewal premium changes by product line, we saw the following: property up 4%, general liability up 6%, commercial auto up 7%, umbrella up 10%, workers' comp up 2%, D and O down about 5%, cyber was flat and personal lines up 11%. So overall increases continue to be broad based and rational in our view, with carriers still cautious in pushing for rate where it's needed to generate an acceptable underwriting profit. We shine in this environment. Our job as brokers is to help clients find the best coverage while mitigating premium increases.

Speaker 1

So while not all of the increases ultimately show up in our organic, a rational market allows us to further differentiate ourselves with our leading tools, data and expertise. Let me shift to the reinsurance market. The July 1 renewal season saw modest property price declines concentrated at the top end of reinsurance towers, while casualty renewal saw terms and conditions tighten and some modest price increases concentrated in the U. S. Clearly, a lot has happened in the property market over the past month, which is now adding some complexity to January 1 property renewals.

Speaker 1

It's still early, but we now believe a flattish renewal is more likely than the downward pressure previously being discussed. And don't forget, U. S. Hurricane season is not over for another month. For casualty risks, we believe reinsurance will remain cautious heading into next year, especially if there is more noise related to U.

Speaker 1

S. Reserve adequacy. We think differentiating underwriting practices will likely be the key to a successful renewal for clients. Overall, the reinsurance industry remains adequately capitalized and is likely to meet capacity demands at the upcoming January 1 renewals. We continue to believe Gallagaree will perform very well in 2025 regardless of how the market environment unfolds in the near term.

Speaker 1

Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. Our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations were again in positive territory for the Q3. While the amount of upward revenue adjustments isn't as much as 2023, they are running in line with 2022. So client business activity remains solid and we are not seeing any signs of meaningful global economic slowdown. Within the U.

Speaker 1

S, the labor market is on solid footing. In fact, the number of open jobs increased in August and remained well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. Overall job growth, upward wage pressure and rising medical cost inflation continue to challenge employers looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefits costs. Regardless of market or economic conditions, I believe we are well positioned to take market share across our brokerage business. Remember, about 90% of the time, we are competing against the smaller local broker that cannot match our client value proposition, niche expertise, outstanding service and our extensive data and analytics offerings.

Speaker 1

Putting this all together, we continue to see full year 24 brokerage organic around 7.5% and that would be another outstanding year. Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Revenue growth was 12%, including organic of 6%. We continue to benefit from excellent client retention, increases in customer business activity, rising claim counts and new business wins. Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 20.8%, 35 basis points higher than last year and a bit above our September IR day expectation.

Speaker 1

Looking ahead, we see organic in the 4th quarter around 7% and full year organic pushing 9%. Margins for 4th quarter and full year should be in the 20.5% range and that too would be another outstanding year. Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. During the Q3, we remained disciplined completing 4 new mergers at fair prices representing $47,000,000 of estimated annualized revenue. For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals.

Speaker 1

Looking ahead, we have more than 100 mergers in our pipeline, representing approximately $1,500,000,000 of annualized revenue. Of these 100 potential partners, we have about 60 turn sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $700,000,000 of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher. Let me conclude with some comments regarding our culture. As we passed our 40th anniversary as a public company, I believe our greatest differentiator continues to be our bedrock culture.

Speaker 1

It's a culture that runs towards problems not away from them, a culture that supports one another and embraces teamwork, a culture that is grounded in the highest standards of moral and ethical behavior. It's a culture that will continue to guide our success for many years to come. Frankly, we love this business. We enjoy taking care of our customers and that is the Callager Way. Okay, I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug.

Speaker 1

Doug?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll walk you through our earnings release. First, I'll comment on Q3 organic growth and margins by segment. Then I'll provide an update on how we are seeing organic growth and margin shape up for 4th quarter and provide an early look on 2025. Next, I'll move to the CFO commentary document that we post on our IR website and walk you through our typical modeling helpers.

Speaker 2

And I'll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M and A and Capital Management. Okay. Let's flip to Page 3 of the earnings release. Headline Brokerage segment 3rd quarter organic growth of 6% without interest income. That's right in line with our September IR Day forecast during which we signaled about a point of headwind during due to the timing of large life sales.

Speaker 2

Recall that these life products are interest rate sensitive. So as we've been discussing, clients were waiting for lower interest rates. Well, the good news Pat mentioned happened over the last month or so. We are now seeing clients fund their policies. In fact, here in October, we have already caught up more than half of what had slipped from earlier quarters.

Speaker 2

So the quarterly lumpiness that we have been highlighting throughout the year is starting to swing the other way here in October and thus we are currently seeing 4th quarter organic towards 8% and full year pushing 7.5%. As we start to budget for 2025, our early thinking is brokerage segment full year organic growth might be in the 6% to 8% range. If so, that could mean a 25% similar to how 2024 might ultimately play out. We'll provide some more on our 2025 thinking at our December IR Day. But an early read through is, we remain upbeat on our ability to grow given the investments we have been making in the business, from adding niche experts to rolling out new sales and support tools to expanding our data and analytics offerings, we believe these actions are leading to higher new business production and strong client retention across the globe.

Speaker 2

And as Pat described, the market environment is still a tailwind for us. Flipping now to page 5 of the earnings release to the brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. 3rd quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 33.6%, up 137 basis points over last year and above the upper end of our September IR Day expectations. Let me walk you through a bridge from last year. First, if you pull out last year's 2023 Q3 earnings release, you would see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAQ margin of 32.4 percent.

Speaker 2

But now using current period FX rates that would have been 32.2%. Then organic and interest gave us nearly 150 basis points of expansion this quarter. Finally, the impact of M and A and divestitures used about 10 basis points of margin this quarter. You follow that and that will get you to Q3 'twenty four margin of 33.6% and that's the 137 basis points of brokerage margin expansion. That is really, really great work by the team.

Speaker 2

As we look ahead to Q4 'twenty four, we are still expecting margin expansion in the 90 to 100 basis point range. And again, that would be off of Q4 2023 adjusted margin for FX, which currently is estimated to be about 20 basis points lower than last year's headline margin of 31.6%. If we do that, that would mean full year 2024 could show about 70 basis points of margin expansion and 90 basis points excluding the 1st quarter impact from the roll in of the Buck merger. Okay. Let's move on to the risk management segment and the organic and EBITDA tables on pages 56.

Speaker 2

It was another solid quarter. We posted organic of 6%. That's a point lower than our IR day guidance because we just missed qualifying for a full revenue bonus related to 1 large account. That said, Gallagher Bassett continues to see excellent client retention and strong new business production and still delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%, which is up 35 basis points over prior year and ahead of our IR day expectation. Looking forward, we see organic of 7% and margins around 20.5% in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

If we were to post that, we would finish the year with organic pushing 9% and margins of approximately 20.5%. That too would be great work by the team. As for 2025, our early thinking is for organic growth similar to the brokerage segment, call it in that 6% to 8% range. Turning now to Page 6 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. In total, adjusted 3rd quarter numbers for interest in banking, clean energy and acquisition costs came in within our September IR Day expectations.

Speaker 2

The corporate line of the corporate segment was below our expectations due to approximately $9,000,000 of additional unrealized non cash foreign exchange remeasurement expense that developed during September and wasn't included in our IR day forecast. After tax call it about $0.03 That has already reversed here in October. So it really is a non cash nothing in our opinion, but the accounting does cause some noise. Let's now move to the CFO commentary document. Starting on page 3, modeling helpers.

Speaker 2

There's no new news here other than FX, so just consider these updated revenue and EPS impacts as you update your models. Turning to the corporate segment on page 4 of the CFO commentary document, no change to our outlook for Q4. Flipping now to Page 5 to our tax credit carry forwards shows $796,000,000 at September 30. While this benefit won't show up in the P and L, it does benefit our cash flow for the next few years, which helps us fund future M and A. Turning to page 6, the investment income table.

Speaker 2

We are now embedding 2 25 basis point rate cuts in the Q4 of 2024 and have updated our estimates in this table for current FX rates. Punch line here is our 4th quarter estimate does not change much from what we provided at our September IR day. Shifting down that page to the rollover revenue table, the Q3 'twenty four column subtotal is $111,000,000 $141,000,000 before divestitures. These are consistent with our September IR Day expectations. Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated revenues for brokerage M and A through closed through yesterday.

Speaker 2

So just a reminder, you'll need to make a pick for future M and A. And when you move down on that page, you'll see the Risk Management segment rollover revenues for Q4 2024 are expected to be approximately $15,000,000 So moving to cash, capital management and M and A funding. Available cash on hand at September 30 was about $1,200,000,000 Considering this balance and our strong expected free cash flow, we are in an excellent position to fund our robust pipeline of M and A opportunities here in 2024. We currently estimate capacity of around $3,000,000,000 for M and A here in 2024 and is looking like we could have another $4,000,000,000 to fund M and A in 2025, all while making solid maintaining a solid investment grade rating. So it's another excellent quarter in the books.

Speaker 2

Through the 1st 9 months of the year for our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we have delivered revenues up 16%, organic growth of 8%, net earnings up 20%, adjusted EBITDAQ up 18% and adjusted EPS up 17%. Those are terrific numbers and reflect an unstoppable culture. We are well on our way to another great year of financial results. Hats off to the team for all of their hard work. So back to you, Pat.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Doug. And operator, if we could go to questions and answers, please.

Operator

Sure. Thank you. The call is now open for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 3

Hey, thanks for the questions. First one is on the bridge from in the brokerage segment from 3Q organic to 4Q organic to kind of the 2 point uplift sequentially. Is are you saying most of that is life insurance? And if not, it sounds like RPC was still kind of more muted. But are you saying RPC is kind of is lifting off into is trending higher into 4Q?

Speaker 3

Just trying to understand some of the pieces there.

Speaker 2

All right. So I think when you renewal premium changes is what you're referring to as RPC, I'm assuming. We're not seeing underlying that our rates that what we're seeing for rates are not different all that much in the Q3 at all compared to what we saw in the 1st two quarters. And I think you're seeing that in a lot of the carrier releases right now too. So rates for the Q4 we're assuming about the same as what we're seeing here in the 3rd quarter which is the same as in the first and the second.

Speaker 2

As for the increase next quarter, yes, we are getting about a point of additional organic growth from the life insurance sales. But when you bake all this in, we think that it's we're running around 7.5% in our business right now. That's the underlying growth. When you take out the puts and takes quarter to quarter, we're nicely in that 7% to 8% range.

Speaker 3

Okay. Got it. So no other seasonality or anything there? Okay.

Speaker 2

We are a little slow in the Q4. It's not as big a quarter for reinsurance for us. And that has been an organic leader over the last couple of years. So yes, we do have a little bit of that impact because it's not we're not so heavily weighted in the Q4 to reinsurance.

Speaker 3

Okay. All right. That makes sense. Okay. Switching gears a bit to, I guess, the margins or just if I look at fiduciary investment income, looks like it was much better than expected, but I think you're guiding down.

Speaker 3

What caused the spike and why is it expected to go back down?

Speaker 2

Well, I think you have to look at our premium funding business there. So when you take a look at the table on Page 6 of the earnings release, I don't think we've changed our estimates all that much for the excuse me, of the CFO commentary. I don't think we've changed all our comments all that much for the Q4. Okay. Okay.

Speaker 2

Got it. You also realize there can be some times where we have obviously fluctuations in our fiduciary cash balances too that can impact that number.

Speaker 3

Okay, got it. And I guess, Doug, as a follow-up to some of the comments you made earlier on renewal price change. So actually from a number of the carriers we've seen so far, we have seen an uptick on the casualty side in terms of pricing. And I know in the past too, you guys have had a view that what you're seeing hearing from carriers is that they're under earning on some of the major casualty lines. So is that still kind of in your thought process as you think that you gave us some tidbits on how 25 could play out that there could be some price hardening on the casualty side?

Speaker 1

There's definitely some price concern on casualty across the board. And I don't know if that will filter into discipline on their part to continue to take it up more than we're presently seeing. But as you heard us earlier, umbrellas presently rising at about 10%. The only line in casualty seems to have a difficult time finding bottoms D and O. The rest, however, are showing strength.

Speaker 2

Yes. I just got one number here. Our U. S. Business, our casualty lines are up a full point, 3rd quarter versus 2nd quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hey, thanks. So appreciate all the guidance on the brokerage organic. I was just curious about the components. I think in the beginning of this year, you guys had talked about maybe it was a third, a third, a third exposure new business and pricing. I was just curious how you guys expect that might unfold in 2025?

Speaker 2

I think it's going to be half new business in excess of loss business and I think that it's going to split the rest of it between exposure and rate.

Operator

Okay, got it. That's helpful.

Speaker 4

Yes, just curious, maybe it's a little bit tough to go through all the comments, but it seemed like maybe international retail decelerated a little bit more than the U. S. This quarter. I guess I was just curious also on your views between international and U. S.

Speaker 4

Retail going into next year.

Speaker 1

Well, I think that you're going to see strong international growth. That's where our strongest component is right now and that does not seem to be backing off. So if you look at our prepared remarks, we talked about the fact that we're a good part of our growth this quarter was international. Can you see if I can find that? Yes.

Speaker 2

I mean, our Australia and New Zealand operations killed it this quarter, so they're up nicely. Canada is a little flattish. I mean, if you want to do that, if you look at the U. K, there was a mix issue there in the Q3 also that you see through. But by and large, I wouldn't say that there's tatters anywhere that are causing this concern.

Speaker 1

International is up 10% this quarter and Doug's comment is right, led by New Zealand and Australia.

Operator

Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 5

Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question, embedded within your 4th quarter guidance, the 8% brokerage organic, is there any assumption for an impact on continued commissions from the recent storms?

Speaker 2

Yes. We don't think we're going to be heavily impacted maybe a couple of $1,000,000 from the storms, but that wouldn't move that maybe it moves it 10 basis points.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then within the guidance, right, I think you guys said 6 to 8 brokerage for next year. Are you assuming what are you assuming for the benefits business? But I understand there was some seasonality this year. Are you just assuming it's kind of in line with the rest of the segment?

Speaker 5

I know you typically wait a little longer to give the by segment guidance, but just because that's brought on some volatility this year, I wanted to get a sense of where you think that will head next year.

Speaker 2

Listen, if you want to pick the midpoint of that range, maybe benefits is around 5% and reinsurance is around 9%, something like that when you're looking for a couple of points on either side of the midpoint.

Speaker 5

For next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, for next year.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then with the M and A, I know like yield flow, right, has probably been a bit lighter through the 1st 3 quarters, right, than what we've seen in prior years. Do you guys think, just given it's a presidential election year, has that caused, I guess, a slowdown in just the closing of transactions? And are you expecting more activity in the Q4 early next year? How do you guys see things on that front?

Speaker 1

Well, I think if you take a look this is Pat. If you think if you look at the general marketplace in terms of acquisitions, there's been a bit of a slowdown in general across the board for the last year. We've got a great pipeline. In my experience, we've got one of the best pipelines we've ever had. So I think that possibly when the discomfort, if you want to call it that, or concentration on this election finally ends, Clearly, if the Democrats get in, I think there could be a rush for the door.

Speaker 1

I don't know what happens in the case the Republicans win. But at any rate, I think when things settle out, we do think there'll be continued great opportunity and I do think that there'll be a return to a little bit more robust market.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think we're going to be I think if you looked at it year to date in 2020 2021, we are closing around 2017 and 2022 we closed 2019, year to date 2024 we're at 27. Yes, last year we closed 37 year to date of these tuck in deals acquisitions. So it was a little slower this quarter, but I think as you heard from Pat's pretty detailed comments, our pipeline is terrific right now.

Speaker 5

And then one last one on like that corporate line within the corporate segment. Doug, I thought you said that it was worse, right, than September IR Day because of the FX remeasurement, but that reversed in the 4th quarter. But then the Q4 guide for corporate did change. Are you just not modeling that in yet?

Speaker 2

Yes. That's a good point. We might be a little bipolar on that. We might have been able to schedule a couple of extra pennies on that line for the reversal of what we saw at the end of the Q3, but that bounces around quite a bit. So I think that we'll see what happens.

Speaker 2

Again, so we just didn't feel like for a couple of pennies it was worth changing that number.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Elyse.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Just building on your last answer on acquisitions, one of the things that struck out or stuck out to me, I should say, is when I was going through the supplement was the weighted average multiple for tuck in pricing of acquisitions came down a lot in the Q3. Is there any maybe you can just help me understand what happened, why the multiple came down, because I don't feel like multiples are coming down in the marketplace. And Pat, in your prepared remarks, you seem to emphasize your price discipline a little bit more than usually referenced in talking about tuck in acquisitions.

Speaker 1

Yes. When we prepared the remarks, Greg, we did discuss whether in the past we've been undisciplined.

Speaker 6

Understood. No,

Speaker 1

I think it's just a good reminder. We have a lot of people listening to these calls, our own people included. And this is a theme for us that we want to do great deals at the right price. We've done that now for a good 30 years. And it's just a reminder to our own folks and to our listeners that we do a lot of acquisitions.

Speaker 1

We try to maintain a good discipline around the pricing and we seem to strike a fair balance between that and the great people who join us.

Speaker 6

And the multiple for the Q3 acquisitions came down materially. It's like I felt like they took a step back in time. Yes.

Speaker 2

One of those acquisitions was not priced, but I would say it was priced a little under market because we have some opportunity to help it get better.

Speaker 6

Okay. Another sort of nitpicking item, you were going through your earnings press release and I was going through the adjustments to earnings to get your adjusted EBITDA on Page 5 of brokerage. And one of the things that stuck out to me is just a huge jump up in workforce and lease termination related charges in the year this year versus last year in Q3 versus Q3 last year. Is there something going on on a bigger scale? Is this more offshoring that's going on?

Speaker 6

Or maybe you could just help I know it's a small item inside your income statement, maybe you could just give us a sense of what's going on there, please?

Speaker 2

Well, then, Greg I'm sorry, back to you.

Speaker 1

So I was just going to say, Greg, you hit on the offshoring thing is really continues to be a very strong play for us. And you'll recall years ago, we started with a very small group. We're 12,500 people strong there now. And as we do acquisitions and go across the board, illustrating the type of quality and the speed with which we can do things like issue certificates, there's pretty quick adoption. It's pretty good.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think you're seeing Greg, you're starting to see the flywheel just getting stronger and stronger as we benefit from scale. We benefit from technologies that we're deploying and we're benefiting from our offshore centers of excellence. It just gives us an opportunity to continue to optimize our workforce. And so I think you're seeing that this quarter, yes, popped up a little bit because we have some opportunities to optimize our workforce.

Speaker 2

So you'll see that from time to time.

Speaker 6

Great. And then just step back macro question and this will be the last one. I know your commercial customers set their budgets for the year. In the past, given the robust rate increases that you've had to sell, it seems like the market's beginning to stabilize a little bit more than, say, for it was 2 years ago. How are the budgets when you hear from your customers, how are the budgets changing for their insurance spend?

Speaker 6

Is it you're seeing more flat budgets? Are you still seeing them assume increases? Give us a sense of what's going on there.

Speaker 1

Really not flat, Greg, for two reasons. Exposure units, thankfully, are continuing to grow. This is why we go through our daily review of the things that are coming through audits, etcetera. We're seeing a robust economy and that's clearly in a big part of the middle market. And so from SME all the way through large accounts, we've got the data on that.

Speaker 1

People are expanding their exposure units, so budgets are going up. Secondly, we are very, very cautious. We are not leading customers to believe that there's any kind of nirvana relative to rates. That is not what's happening. We show them our detail that we go over with you quarterly.

Speaker 1

Property is up 4%, general liability is up 6%. You may not deserve that, that may not hit your P and L, but on the other hand, you may deserve 25%. And this is a rational market. We got to talk through that, which leads us right into discussing how much you retain, what you bring back into the coverage stack that you might not have had before. And that's where the real strength and art of being a broker is, is understanding that appetite for risk that each individual account has working with those primary buyers to decide how they're going to get their best spend.

Speaker 1

And it's not a discussion all around rate by any means.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think you take the K off out of the pricing cycle and have this rational pricing cycle that we're seeing right now. Our guys will show the tools and capabilities that we have and that will shine through and differentiate ourselves. That's why when I said before that I see a better new business versus lost business here, next year than we've even seen in the last couple of years.

Speaker 1

And by the way to that point Greg, we can take clients into our data now and I think you know this. We can say clients like you buy this and their quotes and cover looks like this. And by the way, their costs are this. Well, why is that? Think about selling or buying a house on the street.

Speaker 1

One's been taken care of, looks pretty darn good, has street appeal. The other looks like junk. Guess who gets the better price? Why don't we try to get you looking more like the house on the street people want to buy? And that back to my point of art is what it's all about to be a good broker.

Speaker 1

And that's why when we get a rate environment like this, I feel very confident talking to our salespeople about we better see some increased sales folks. Let's go.

Speaker 6

Fair enough. Thanks for the answers.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Greg.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Dean Cristiano with KBW. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hi. I was hoping if you guys could provide maybe some additional color on the sequential decrease in the organic growth in brokerage, especially in the context of that renewal premium change holding up pretty strong sequentially?

Speaker 2

Well, listen, I think I said earlier that our Q1 is strong because it's a heavy reinsurance quarter, right? We've talked about some of the life insurance being a little lumpy. But if you bounce those two things out of there a little bit, again, we're running around 7.5% organic growth each quarter. So while it looks like that on the face, yes, we're at 6% now, but warned that there was a full point of headwind against that. Also we're not seeing substantial rate differentials rates between the quarters.

Speaker 2

So really underlying it when you carve out the seasonality of a couple of our businesses, some of the mix differences between when property renews versus when casualty renews, the life lumpiness, you got to take our word for it. It's pretty steady underlying other than that those things that I've said. So it's pretty steady right now underlying.

Speaker 1

Yes. And if you want to go back 3 or 4 years, D and O is up 300%. So by line, by geography, these rates do make a difference, they move. So we're not seeing a D and O renewal anywhere near to 300%. In fact, it's off 5% or 6%.

Speaker 1

So the percentages do move. This is not an environment where you say for the next 10 years. Good news is it's 4% a quarter, bing bang boom.

Speaker 7

Got it. That makes sense. And then my second one, a few of your competitors have made some large acquisitions to help improve their middle market capabilities. And I was wondering what implications do you think that have on the competitive environment going forward sort of being that you guys are a dominant player in that space?

Speaker 1

I don't think it has any impact to be perfectly blunt on our business at all.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank

Speaker 1

you. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon.

Speaker 9

Doug, did you give

Speaker 8

early margin thoughts for 2025 for brokerage and risk management?

Speaker 2

I have not. I will in December as we go through the budget, but I will say this. We post 6% to 8% for our organic growth next year. It's there, Mark. There's an opportunity for us to continue to get better.

Speaker 2

Our scale advantages are coming through our technologies using the offshore centers of excellence. It still gives us an opportunity in an environment that we're seeing with current wage inflation, with current inflation in other categories of our spends that we continue to have opportunities to get better and better. And when you're punching out 6% to 8% organic growth, the underlying margins will absolutely have opportunity for expansion.

Speaker 8

Very good. And then the did you give organic broken out by the wholesale components and then reinsurance? I think you might have given those collectively at up 8%, but do you happen to have the components of that?

Speaker 2

Yes. Listen, some of like our affinity businesses might be at 12%, some of our program businesses might be around that 6%. I think our open brokerage is somewhere around 9%, 8% or 9%. The reinsurance is somewhere around 8% or 9% this quarter. So I would say other than a couple, maybe the Affinity business just a little better this quarter and maybe the program business just a little below that 8%.

Speaker 2

But the reason why we lumped them together and it was just to shorten the script, but there's not a lot of difference when you're looking at around 8%.

Speaker 8

Understood. And then any comment, Pat, on the mix shift out of admitted into the P and F lines?

Speaker 1

Yes, I think it's very it's a really interesting one, Mark. I think we're seeing continued tremendous submission supply into our wholesaling operation RPS that has not slowed down, which is really interesting. And we are not seeing accounts flowing back to the primary market in any great extent. So the excess and surplus market, which we know has gobbled up a big chunk of the P and C market over the last 5, 10 years seems to be continuing its growth and it's maintaining its accounts. And I think that's we've got people in RPS that bring more than just pricing to the deal.

Speaker 1

There's a lot of expertise there. There's a lot of layering and structuring that goes into some of these deals that your local retailer, ourselves included. Quite honestly, 50% of our wholesale business goes to RPS. That's for a reason. So I think it's both professional capabilities as well as market access and that market is still growing nicely.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Alex Scott with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So I mean, when I hear what you're saying about reinsurance and the strength and growth there, the wholesale business seems like it's growing very nicely as well. When I look at the 6 percent and I guess run rating closer to 7% and change, but does that mean I guess it obviously means that the businesses other than reinsurance and wholesale like the more core retail is doing something lower. Is there anything that's causing some of the price there to not flow through?

Speaker 9

Is that just maybe some of the property deceleration we saw? I'm just trying to understand that piece of it specifically. What are some of the trends you're seeing in puts and takes headed into next year for the core retail piece of it?

Speaker 2

Yes. Always keep in the back of your mind our benefits business. That business is running around 5%. Take out the large life cases and stuff that bounce around a little bit. So as that as you think about those that are above that 7% range, yes, you've listed them, but you also have to remember that the benefit businesses naturally runs down below that level.

Speaker 2

Some of our actuarial services businesses run a little bit lower than that. But as I look across the organic across all the operating, we mentioned that Canada was about flat. But by and large, there's a few that offset each other, but it's not like there's any one particular area that is systemically running below that level right now.

Speaker 9

Got it. And then maybe if we can go back to reinsurance, I mean the growth rate you're anticipating sounds pretty robust there despite the flight pricing. And I just want

Speaker 8

to see if you could

Speaker 9

add some color around that. I mean, does that have to do with demand? Can you talk a bit about what you're seeing in terms of your clients' demand for reinsurance?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think demand seems very, very strong, which is good news for us. Also, I think our level of expertise in helping clients in a market environment where there is capacity and they can move around how they play in that capacity, it's a very strong demand for our consulting capabilities around reinsurance, what's the next move for the carriers that are our customers. So you have both. You've got demand.

Speaker 1

I think you have more utilization. There's strong growth at the primary level and all of that flows up into the funnel for reinsurance. And as one of the top 3 players in that business, we have a lot of good prospects on the list.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for the responses.

Speaker 1

Sure. Thanks Alex.

Operator

And our next question is from Katy Sakas with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Hi. I apologize. Thank you for the question. I might be some background noise. There's a fire juggling on right now.

Speaker 10

I want to circle back to the subject of valuations. You're thinking about acquisitions in the middle market that are really concentrated in excess of $15,000,000 of revenue. We've seen a couple of those lately. And the multiples on those deals have been a lot higher than we've seen in the past. I was curious how that compares to what you guys are seeing for those larger middle market deals and whether your appetite to participate in larger acquisitions has shifted at all?

Speaker 2

Listen, I think that there's no question the larger you are probably the higher the multiplo might be for somebody that's out there looking for an opportunity. But when we look at our tuck in acquisitions, I think that people understand that we'll pay a fair price. And the advantage is they get to stick with us. They get to come in and they get to work inside of a broker. The broker is selling to a broker.

Speaker 2

They understand that if they decide to take our stock that they get to participate in equal form as you do, as I do, as Pat does, everybody else in this room. It's one stock for every person. They get our resources. They get to put their employees and their clients into an environment where actually joining us is going to deliver considerably more career value and more insurance value to their customers. So many times they look at it and they say that they get the opportunity to continue on doing what they're going to do.

Speaker 2

And so they get excited about it 10, 11 or 12 multiple. That's the reality about it. They're making a great return for their family and they know they get to continue doing it with us for as long as they would like to do in their career. And that's valuable to them too. Don't forget that.

Speaker 1

Let's also take a look at the landscape. Now we don't talk about this I think enough because the big deals get big headlines and they are big platforms. We estimate there's 29,000 agents and brokers in America. Last year Business Insurance last July Business Insurance ranked the top 100 in the United States, number 100 to $30,000,000 in revenue. So there's 28,900 brokers in America, that's firms not people that are out there trading.

Speaker 1

And that's why we say 90% of the time, which continues to be consistent over the last decade, when we compete in the marketplace, we're competing with somebody smaller. And it's probably less than 10% of the time really that we're competing with Marsh and Aon, who are the only larger brokers in the world today. It's not that we don't compete, we do. There's a robust market at the top end. When you think about that, we can use our funds, as Doug says, at lower multiples.

Speaker 1

We can have 100 of these opportunities in our pipeline. We can be pricing out $70,000,000 of them and possibly put on $1,000,000,000 of revenue with people that want to join us, haven't joined somebody else, want to bring their culture and their people aboard a culture that fits and matches theirs, as Doug said, a brokerage run by brokers. It doesn't get the press, but it seems like a pretty good strategy and a good use of our cash to us.

Speaker 10

It. Thank you so much for the color.

Speaker 1

Hey, you better evacuate, Katie.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of David Mamadine with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Hey, good evening. Just had a question in brokerage and the contingents were up 24% on an organic basis. I was wondering if you could just talk about what was driving that in the quarter?

Speaker 2

Listen, I think that when you're talking about that, it's another $7,000,000 or $8,000,000 of where it developed from. We just had between our benefits business and our U. S. Retail business, that's where we picked up a few extra contingents in the quarter or our estimation for those contingents in the quarter. So there was nothing special in there.

Speaker 2

And again, we might give a couple of million of that back next quarter because of the storms and floods. But by and large, I would say around the possibility of what could happen, it was a few $1,000,000 in both of those businesses. Got it. Okay. That's helpful.

Speaker 11

And then I guess just a bigger picture question. I heard the commentary on the term sheets being prepared or that in the process of getting signed with $700,000,000 of revenues. Do you have any stats historically on just how many of those closed, like what percentage of those closed in the next year, just to help us level set how much the contribution could be going forward?

Speaker 1

You really don't, David. Here's the thing. Every one of

Speaker 2

these is a very interesting story unto itself. You've heard me say, I mean,

Speaker 1

I think the interesting story into itself. You've heard me say, I mean, I think the longest time we spent talking to a client talking to a prospect and getting to know each other was 20 years. So sometimes they happen in a quarter, sometimes they take a couple of years. And, but when we get to pricing and we get to putting together a letter of intent, we're getting serious. And that's a deal that's going to get decided in the next 6 months.

Speaker 1

So I don't really have a stat on how many of those do close, how many don't. It's a full on sales process. It's just like selling insurance frankly. If you don't have a lot in the hopper, you're not

Speaker 6

going to close a lot.

Speaker 1

We feel very good about these 60. You could ask this every quarter and I will try to give some color. Right now, we feel very good about the deals that we're proposing right now. I would think we'd have a good shot at an awful lot of those.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's good to hear. And then just finally, so it sounded like the U. S. Retail P and C organic, it sounded like that slowed a little bit.

Speaker 11

I think it was 5%, if I heard that right, and I think it was 6% last quarter. Was that just the large account property business that you were talking about that has reaccelerated here in the Q4?

Speaker 2

Yes. Listen, I'm just looking at my sheet here. If it moved, it moved to 0.5 point one way or another. We did have more. 1st quarter was just a little bit better than that, but 2nd quarter is about the same number as what we've got right now.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, David.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Grace Kannert with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Hi, everyone. I was hoping we could talk about the contingents a little bit more. Just given kind of the ongoing conversation around, the casualty market, I was wondering if how you all are thinking about any potential risk of maybe some of the pressures from the casualty line that we saw in contingents last quarter resurfacing over the next few months?

Speaker 2

If it did, we're talking a few $1,000,000 I mean I wouldn't call that as being a systemic issue that we're going to have to face. Just like with the storms, it's a few million. There are some corridors that we do have caps on our contingents. And so sometimes if there's if the carriers have, let's say, maybe a loss more losses than they had hoped, it may still let us get to our full contingent level because there's caps on that. So right now, we're not seeing a lot of pressure from that in not only in our past book, but as we look forward in the booking.

Speaker 2

And if carriers continue to strengthen their casualty rates the way they have been and what they're saying and what we're hearing from them, when we're reading about what they're saying, it should maintain our contingent level also.

Speaker 12

Thank you. And just a quick follow-up on the lumpy wipe sales. If I'm understanding correctly, you all are expecting pretty much all of the timing issue to work itself out in 4Q? Or should we expect any sort of kind of lagging impact from that in early 2025 as well?

Speaker 2

What I said is already here in October, we have recouped half of what had been the timing that had come out of this 1st and second quarter excuse me, 2nd and third quarter. So we're going to pick up we so far have we think that we've got a pipeline maybe to recover at all between now and the end of the year. And then we'll start over again. Just like every other sales organization, we got to start over next year and go out there and see if we can gin up some opportunities. But this product is becoming more and more necessary for many not for profits in order for them to be competitive in their executive benefit package.

Speaker 2

So this is a product that we think has long legs over the next several or many years.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Grace.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 3

Great. Just a quick follow-up on life insurance. So, just ballpark, what percentage of your brokerage revenues are life insurance? And I don't know if you want to break it out into this new product that might be more lumpy or just growing faster over time than traditional life?

Speaker 2

The lumpy business that we're talking about is about $125,000,000 business.

Speaker 3

Okay. Okay. Then that helps explain why it could move organic by that much. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 3

That's all. Have a nice night.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Mike. I think that's it, operator. Thank you again, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. We had an excellent Q3 and we're well on our way to delivering another excellent year of financial performance. I'd like to thank our 55,000 colleagues around the globe for their hard work and dedication to our clients.

Speaker 1

We look forward to speaking with you again in person at our December Investor Meeting in New York City. Thank you very much for being with us this evening. We'll talk to you then.

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00