Carlisle Companies Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 24, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Nicole, and I will be your conference call operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Carlyle Company's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session.

Operator

I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Mehul Patel, Carlyle's Vice President of Investor Relations. Mehul, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Carlyle's Q3 2024 Earnings Call. I'm Mehul Patel, Vice President of Investor Relations for Carlisle. We released our Q3 2024 financial results today, and you can find both our press release and the presentation for today's call in the Investor Relations section of our website. On the call with me today are Chris Koch, our Board Chair, President and CEO along with Kevin Zimmel, our CFO.

Speaker 1

Today's call will begin with Chris providing key highlights of our Q3 results and some commentary on our progress towards Vision 2030's goal of $40 of EPS. Kevin will follow Chris and provide an overview on our Q3 and year to date financial performance and give an update on our most current outlook for the remainder of 2024. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the line for questions. Before we begin, please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation, where we note that comments today will include forward looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results could differ materially from these statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release and SEC filings.

Speaker 1

As Carlyle provides non GAAP financial information, we provided reconciliations between GAAP and non GAAP measures in our press release and in the appendix of our presentation materials, which are available on our website. And with that, I will turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mehul. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on Carlyle's Q3 2024 Earnings Call. To start, I'd like to direct your attention to Slide 3 of the presentation. I'm pleased to share that Carlisle continued to demonstrate the outstanding performance we've seen in 2024 into the Q3, despite facing increased headwinds in the quarter, which negatively impacted sales, primarily in our residential end markets. Despite these challenges and the additional impact of 2 major hurricanes, the Carlyle team delivered record 3rd quarter results in both EBITDA margin and earnings per share.

Speaker 2

Carlyle's performance throughout this year underscores the resilience of our business model, the robustness of our key initiatives and the perseverance of our team and the effective execution of our Vision 2,030 strategies. The record achievements in profitability in the Q3 are even more rewarding and that our teams delivered the record Q3 results in an environment that as mentioned saw a weakening residential market when compared to our 2nd quarter outlook, as well as disruptions tied to weather related and port strike events. In the Q3, Carlisle delivered sales of $1,300,000,000 representing growth of 6% on a year over year basis, despite the negative sales impact of CWT. Across both CCM and CWT, we maintained our strong focus on pricing discipline, on driving a superior customer interface through the Carlyle experience and continued to deliver operating efficiencies through our well known approach to driving continuous improvement, the Carlyle operating system. These factors combined to deliver 3rd quarter record bottom line results with adjusted EPS growing 24% to $5.78 and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 60 basis points year over year to 27.6 percent, highlighting our commitment to continued margin expansion in both CCM and CWT.

Speaker 2

CCM continued the positive momentum generated in the first half 2024 into the second half of the year with revenue growth of 9% and an impressive 110 basis points expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, setting a new 3rd quarter record of 32.8%. This growth was driven by the continued strength in reroofing demand along with the benefits from inventory normalization in the channel and the acquisition of MTL. As we've discussed throughout the year, we anticipated a significant positive impact from inventory normalization in 2024 and we are pleased that it materialized as expected and in the order of magnitude we had forecasted at the start of the year. In the Q3, in line with our original projections, we saw an approximately $50,000,000 benefit of sales from CCM inventory normalization, which now completes the lapping benefit we expected this year and that was tied to the prior year's inventory destock. As a reminder, when we entered 2024, we had anticipated $375,000,000 from a return to normal inventory levels.

Speaker 2

Now turning to CWT. While we were pleased with the progress of our new product introductions, retail channel expansion and overall share gains within CWT, higher interest rates and affordability challenges resulted in a further slowing in new housing activity and repair and remodel during the quarter. These negative factors drove a sales decline of 3% year over year in CWT, including an expected low single digit price decline. That said, our long term positive outlook for CWT is unchanged given the well known need for additional housing, a forecasted return to a better interest rate environment and success in key growth initiatives across commercial waterproofing, new product introductions and expansion in the home center channel. Overall pricing in the Q3 remained relatively stable and in line with our expectations for both the CCM and CWT segments.

Speaker 2

Much of this was driven by our proactive approach, pricing discipline and our commitment to value based pricing. Furthermore, the team's focus on operational excellence and strategic growth initiatives leaves us well positioned to capitalize on market opportunities as they arrive. Now let's turn to Vision 2,030. Our Vision 2,030 strategy continues to guide our focus on key growth drivers including energy efficiency, labor saving solutions and capturing a larger share of the expanding reroofing market. We're doubling down on organic investments in innovation more than tripling our historical R and D investments to bring more energy efficient and labor saving products to market faster.

Speaker 2

We also remain committed to our pivot to a pure play building products platform and focused almost exclusively on the opportunities presented in the North American markets. Furthermore, we remain driven to be a superior capital allocator and demonstrated our commitment to returning capital to shareholders in the Q3 through our balanced approach of dividends and share repurchases. During quarter 3, we repurchased 1,100,000 shares for $466,000,000 bringing our year to date total to $1,200,000,000 These 3rd quarter purchases put us well on track to achieve our planned goal of $1,400,000,000 in share repurchases in 2024. Additionally, we paid out $46,000,000 in dividends this quarter and declared an 18% increase to our dividend in August, representing the 48th consecutive annual increase in dividends for Carlyle shareholders. These actions underpin our ongoing dedication to creating shareholder value and reflect our confidence in Carlyle's growth trajectory.

Speaker 2

Our robust cash flow generation and pristine balance sheet continue to provide us with the flexibility to reinvest in our businesses and the ability to deploy capital to drive organic growth, continuously improve our operations, pursue strategic acquisitions and actively return capital to our shareholders, all while maintaining our focus on driving long term value creation. To close out Slide 3, while we are slightly lowering our full year 2024 outlook to 10% revenue growth for Carlyle, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the residential markets and the impact of the previously mentioned weather and strike events, we are pleased to reaffirm our expectation to achieve approximately 150 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. I will now speak briefly to Slides 4 through 8 as I discuss our recent progress against our Vision 2,030 goals. As a reminder, our Vision 2,030 strategy builds on the success of Vision 2025 and gives us a clear roadmap to drive value creation in the next chapter of Carlyle's ongoing story of success. Under Vision 2,030, we are creating value for our shareholders through our portfolio of high performing building envelope businesses with attractive secular trends.

Speaker 2

We are focusing on delivering the most innovative, energy efficient and labor saving products and solutions to our customers through investment in our ever improving Carlyle experience, delivering well understood and consistent value for price, leveraging a strong leadership focus and operating with a relentless focus on flawless execution driven by our COS culture. As a reminder, Vision 2,030 focuses on 6 pillars. The first is the Carlyle operating system. Under Vision 2,030, we will continue to drive our continuous improvement culture through the consistent application of COS across every function in the enterprise with the goal to drive savings of 1% to 2% of sales annually through operation efficiencies. 2nd is the Carlyle experience.

Speaker 2

The Carlyle experience has established us as a premium brand with a recognized value proposition backed by high quality products and exceptional service. Our commitment to our customers is embodied in the Carlyle experience, which means delivering the right products to the right place at the right time. We understand that we win with customers through superior products and solutions, exceptional service and labor savings efficiencies, and we price our products to reflect that value. 3rd is innovation. We plan to increase our spend on R and D to 3% of sales by 2,030 to accelerate the creation of new products and solutions that add value to our customers through advancements in sustainability, energy savings and labor efficiency.

Speaker 2

We will pursue innovation based on an intimate knowledge of our markets and a focus on innovation that responds to our customers' needs and opportunities to improve their businesses. 4th is M and A. We will focus on existing and adjacent categories that allow us to enhance our building envelope portfolio. We will seek opportunities to acquire assets that meet our well understood criteria of an embedded organic growth story, an opportunity to deliver hard cost synergies, a talent and management team and the ability to deploy our Carlisle integration playbook. 5th is our disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Speaker 2

Ultimately, as superior capital allocators, we seek to create value for our shareholders and deliver benefits for all our stakeholders. In line with our track record, we will continue to invest our cash responsibly into the highest ROIC opportunities. And lastly, and perhaps more importantly, our 6th goal is attracting, motivating and retaining top performers to ensure we have the best talent to execute our strategic initiatives and drive above market growth. By executing on our clearly stated initiatives and strategies reinforced by the progress we have made this year, we are on target to deliver our goal of $40 of EPS by 2,030 while achieving over 25% ROIC and generating free cash flow margins in excess of 15%. Our M and A strategy, a key pillar of Vision 2,030 continues to progress as expected.

Speaker 2

We have a healthy pipeline of opportunities that can contribute to our Vision 2,030 goal to grow and be a leading supplier of building envelope products and solutions. With the sale of CIT completed in May, I'm pleased to report that we've been able to deploy capital from the sale proceeds into meaningful acquisitions, demonstrating our ability to execute on our strategic plans and create value through M and A as part of Vision 2,030. This rapid and strategic deployment of capital underscores our commitment to strengthening and growing our positions within the building envelope. With our solid balance sheet and robust cash flow, we are well positioned to capture additional value through M and A over the Vision 2,030 timeframe. We see opportunities in both existing and complementary categories including architectural metals, insulation, underlayments, sealants and adhesives and the many weatherproofing categories within CWT.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, our M and A playbook is built on 4 core criteria, an embedded organic growth story, hard cost synergies, a strong management team and the deployment of our Carlyle integration playbook. Our acquisition of MTL earlier this year and our recently announced agreement to acquire PlastiFab are recent examples of this strategy in action and the steady progress in M and A we are making against our Vision 2,030 goals. Let's focus on Plastafab for a moment. The rationale for the acquisition of Plastafab is straightforward. It aligns perfectly with our Vision 2,030 strategy to enhance our best in class building envelope product portfolio.

Speaker 2

It establishes Carlyle as a leading manufacturer within the $1,500,000,000 North American expanded polystyrene insulation market and strategically provides vertically integrated polystyrene capabilities to our Insulfoam business while adding scale, supporting retail channel growth and filling key geographic gaps in the U. S. And Canada. We expect this acquisition to generate approximately $14,000,000 in annual cost synergies and be accretive to our adjusted EPS by approximately $0.30 in 2025. Recently, our M and A strategy gained recognition in a Harvard Business Review article titled A Better Approach to Mergers and Acquisitions.

Speaker 2

Carlyle has built a detailed integration playbook with clear milestones and goals. This approach coupled with our rigorous due diligence process gives us a competitive advantage in M and A execution. We were pleased to be able to share our approach to M and A through a well distributed and well respected periodical and hope it helps provide shareholders with more insight into our approach. Our success in M and A complements our intensified focus on innovation, another key driver in our Vision 2,030 strategy. We're significantly increasing our R and D investment to $1,000,000,000 over the Vision 2,030 timeframe aiming to derive 25% of our revenue from new products, up from 15% today.

Speaker 2

Our approach categorizes innovation into 3 types: business life cycle, evolutionary and revolutionary, each receiving equal focus and investment of about 1% of sales. Business Lifecycle Innovation is currently 80% of our efforts focus on ongoing product improvements and cost reductions. Evolutionary innovations address specific and real current unmet customer needs. A great example is our new 16 foot TPO line. By doubling the width of the traditional 8 foot TPO roll, we reduce seams in the roof, which reduces the opportunities for leaks over the life of the roof.

Speaker 2

It also reduces labor by significantly increasing the square foot applied by the contractors installation team. Revolutionary innovations drive dramatic business inflections with longer term development timelines. New re roofing insulation like our recently introduced denim based Ultra Touch product that's available at Home Depot is an example of a revolutionary product development idea. Our innovation efforts are already yielding results with products like SeamShield and Blueskin VP Tech gaining rapid market acceptance. SeamShield reduces cleaning time by 70% while increasing weld strength directly addressing contractor pain points.

Speaker 2

Blueskin VP Tech combines multiple components into a single product, improving energy efficiency and cutting installation time by 30%. I'm particularly excited to highlight another innovative product that exemplifies our commitment to sustainability and customer value. Our Henry Roof Guard roof coating was recently named a finalist for Home Depot's Innovative Product of the Year Award. This recognition not only showcases our progress and innovation, but also reinforces the strength of our relationships with key channel partners like Home Depot and is another example of delivering value to our customers based on extensive market input. RoofGuard represents our next generation acrylic waterproof roof coating enhanced with urethane for improved performance.

Speaker 2

Its premium hybrid formula offers better weather protection, solar reflectivity and longevity compared to standard acrylic reflective roof coatings. This innovation not only addresses our customers' needs for energy efficiency, but also aligns perfectly with our sustainability goals. The success of products like RoofGuard have contributed to CWT's Henry brand being awarded Home Depot's Building Materials Vendor of the Year for the 2nd time since 2022. This accolade underscores our commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction, serving as a prime example of the Carlyle experience in action. And we are very proud of the Henry team for being recognized by Home Depot again.

Speaker 2

These innovations not only enhance the Carlyle experience for our customer, but also drive margin expansion through pricing to value. They demonstrate how our focus on innovation is directly contributing to our Vision 2,030 goals, positioning us to meet evolving market needs while driving sustainable growth and profitability. I'm extremely proud of our team's performance year to date. As we progress towards our Vision 2,030 goals, I am confident in our ability to continue delivering value for all our stakeholders. Our focus remains on demonstrating the strength of our margin resiliency through the Carlyle experience and driving superior returns on capital through our strategic initiatives.

Speaker 2

With that, I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional financial details. Kevin? Thank you, Chris.

Speaker 3

Our Q3 financial results continue to demonstrate Carlyle's strength and our effective execution. As shown on Slide 9, we delivered a solid Q3 on both the top and bottom lines. We grew sales to $1,300,000,000 up 6% year over year driven by robust reroofing activity, the return to normalization of inventory levels in our channels and the acquisition of MTL, which more than offset the negative impact from the slower residential end markets. We leveraged our top line performance to expand EBITDA margins by 60 basis points year over year to a record 3rd quarter 27.6%. Furthermore, we grew adjusted EPS by 24% to a record 3rd quarter by $0.78 reflecting the strong operating results, margin expansion and the benefits of our ongoing share repurchase program.

Speaker 3

Looking at our segment highlights, starting with CCM on Slide 10. CCM delivered 3rd quarter revenues of $998,000,000 up 9% year over year, reflecting pent up reroof demand, the benefit of inventory normalization and the acquisition of MTL. CCM's adjusted EBITDA increased 13% year over year to $328,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded an impressive 110 basis points year over year to a record 3rd quarter 32.8%, reflecting strong volume leverage on sales growth, favorable raw materials and continued operational improvements driven by the Carlyle operating system. Moving to Slide 11. Revenues at CWT were down 3% year over year to $335,000,000 primarily due to softer residential end markets and expected price declines in select product categories, partially offset by growth in our commercial business, share gain initiatives and the acquisition of Polar Industries.

Speaker 3

CWT's adjusted EBITDA decreased 14% year over year to $69,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 2 70 basis points year over year to 20.7 percent attributable to strategic investments in the business to support longer term growth initiatives, as well as lower sales in the quarter as a result of broader residential market weakness from higher interest rates as consumers take a wait and see approach to home purchases and R and R. For your reference, Slide 12 provides a year over year Q3 adjusted EPS bridge. Moving to Slide 13. Our cash flow performance remains strong. Free cash flow from continuing operations for the 1st 9 months of 2024 was $597,000,000 up $22,000,000 year over year reflecting robust earnings growth and disciplined working capital management.

Speaker 3

We have invested $64,000,000 in capital expenditures year to date. Moving to Slide 14. Our balance sheet remains solid with $1,500,000,000 in cash and $1,000,000,000 available under our revolving credit facility as of quarter end. This solid liquidity along with a net leverage ratio of 0.5 times gives us a flexibility to invest in value creating opportunities while staying committed to delivering returns to our shareholders. Moving to Slide 15, in line with our Vision 2,030 capital allocation strategy, we're reinvesting in our high ROIC building product businesses through growth CapEx and strategically deploying capital towards synergistic M and A opportunities to grow and enhance our building envelope portfolio, while also returning significant capital to shareholders.

Speaker 3

In the Q3, we paid $46,000,000 in dividends and repurchased $466,000,000 in shares, bringing our year to date share repurchases to $1,200,000,000 We have 4,500,000 shares remaining under our current repurchase program. Carlyle's financial strength underpinned by consistent cash flow generation and prudent capital management remains a key competitive advantage. It enables us to balance investments in organic growth, strategic M and A and shareholder returns, while maintaining the flexibility to navigate evolving market dynamics. This financial resilience combined with our operational excellence driven by the Carlyle operating system reinforces our confidence in achieving our Vision 2,030 objectives. Now moving to our full year financial outlook on Slide 16.

Speaker 3

As Chris previously noted, we now expect our full year 2024 outlook for revenue to grow approximately 10% over the prior year, and we are reaffirming our expectations adjusted EBITDA margins to expand by approximately 150 basis points. This outlook includes an expectation for 4th quarter revenue to grow low single digit with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25% in the Q4. As such, we expect record full year EPS in 2024 with growth in excess of 25% compared to the prior year. Additionally, we maintain our expectation to deliver free cash flow margins of at least 15% and ROIC in excess of 25%. This is directly aligned with the objectives outlined in our Vision 2,030 strategy.

Speaker 3

To provide a tighter band on the outlook, I will provide outlook by segment for the Q4. For CCM, we expect revenue to grow mid single digit through a combination of volume growth and the benefit from the MTL acquisition, offsetting slightly lower pricing on year over year comps. For CWT, we expect 4th quarter revenue to decline low single digit versus a Q4 of 2023. The main drivers for CWT is key growth initiatives partially offsetting the softer residential end markets. In summary, our 3rd quarter results of revenue up 6% and adjusted EPS up 24% year over year to a record 3rd quarter $5.78 demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business model as well as our ability to execute effectively in a dynamic market environment.

Speaker 3

The progress we have made year to date reinforces the momentum we are building towards our Vision 2,030 goals. As we look ahead, we are excited about the opportunities to further leverage our operational excellence, drive innovation and win in our end markets. With our strong financial position, disciplined capital allocation strategy and commitment to continued improvement through the Carlyle operating system, we believe we are well equipped to deliver long term value creation. With that, I turn it over to Chris for closing remarks. Thank you, Kevin.

Speaker 2

In conclusion, I want to reiterate our confidence in Carlyle's strategic direction under Vision 2,030. As we move forward, our ability to innovate with a focus on energy efficiency and labor saving solutions puts us on the right path to drive above market growth and superior financial results. Our record 3rd quarter results, cash flow generation and overall 2024 performance continue to give us confidence that we are firmly on track towards our vision 2,030 goals of $40 of EPS, 25 percent ROIC, 15% free cash flow margins, 25 percent EBITDA margins and mid single digit organic growth. The pivot of Carlyle's business model to an easier to understand and higher returning building products portfolio continues to provide many strong catalysts for growth. When combined with our robust free cash flow engine, strong balance sheet, enhanced focus on innovation, a robust pipeline of potential acquisitions and a proven M and A integration playbook, Carlyle is clearly positioned to create significant additional value for all our shareholders and reach our goal of $40 of EPS under Vision 2,030.

Speaker 2

I would also like to take this opportunity to express my continued thanks to all of Carlisle's employees for their exceptional efforts and perseverance in this challenging environment. And once again, let me extend my sincere congratulations to the Henry team on their Home Depot award. Thank you all as well for your continued support, investment and interest in Carlisle. That concludes our formal comments. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer

Speaker 4

you. Our first

Operator

question will be coming from Timothy Walsh from Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for your time.

Speaker 6

Good afternoon, Tim.

Speaker 7

Hey. So maybe just on volumes in the CCM business, if you could maybe kind of take a step back and kind of give us some color on where you think maybe either industry sales are or kind of where industry volumes are kind of in the Q3 and maybe year to date? And I guess as you look at next year, I mean, I know it's early, but how do you think about the volume kind of puts and takes to next year with new construction? And then it seems like re roof continues to have some decent momentum.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think you're right, Tim, on I'll just take a look at into 25 first and I'll see what Kevin wants to say about Q3. But I think 25, we continue to be optimistic on that from a couple of perspectives. I think obviously there's a lot of economic uncertainty going into the elections. Obviously there was hope for more interest rate cuts that didn't materialize. I think people may be sitting on the sidelines there.

Speaker 4

We also were going into the Q4 after just having basically got back to normal on the inventory restocking and no one was going to really restock into the late quarters of the year too heavily. And then we had a little bit of weather. I think things stabilized after the election, interest rate cuts. We think there may be some opportunity for some pricing. Obviously, we still see inflation in labor and medical costs, these things, as well as more innovation that we have coming out, the effects of some positive things on acquisition, some new channel opportunities for us.

Speaker 4

So I think 25 for us, we would say it looks good. And then last, I'd say, we haven't had a load in into the construction season in quite a while. And it's probably isn't accurate, but I'm going to say it probably hasn't been since COVID. And that used to be a nice boost to the year. So I think there's some opportunities for some inventory improvements when people have confidence in the economy again.

Speaker 4

So with that, I'll turn it to Kevin and see what he'd like to say about the Q3 volumes.

Speaker 3

Yes. In Q3 for CCM, I would say the industry was up about 3%, which would have been the same for our CCM business. There was some things at the end of the quarter, as you know, with some of the weather events with the hurricanes as well as the port strike that impacted us a little more than 1% in the quarter. So that would have been against that 3% volume that we would have seen.

Speaker 4

Tim, specifically one thing just one thing to add to, as I look across the verticals, warehouses, educational office, that kind of thing. Really when we look in 2024, the big one that's been dragging and it was kind of that way in 2023 as well has been warehouses. Everything else is not in too bad a shape as far as how the volume is getting distributed. And I think you can you're probably already aware of that, that we've seen that. So Yes.

Speaker 7

I mean to your point like new construction is down this year, right? So I mean and a lot of it is central a lot of it is kind of centered on the warehouse vertical, right? Yes. Yes. Okay.

Speaker 7

And I

Speaker 4

think the construction also yes, okay.

Speaker 7

No, no, that's fine. That's totally fine. And then just on just the M and A kind of funnel in the pipeline and I guess kind of the pace. I you've done kind of 2 acquisitions or 2 tuck in acquisitions here in the last couple of quarters. I mean, are there is there a pretty sizable pipeline of these tuck in type acquisitions at pretty attractive financial profiles?

Speaker 7

Because, I mean, if you're able to do a couple of these a year, I mean, you could really start to get some momentum on the synergies and the capital deployment.

Speaker 4

Yes. Actually, I still think prices are a little bit high versus what they were a few years ago. But after we get our synergies and our synergies adjusted number, they've been looking really good. And it goes back to the 4 things we're looking for. We're looking for that organic growth story.

Speaker 4

We're looking for hard synergies, good management team. We've got those both in MTL and PlastiFAB. The other thing is you said at the tuck in, that ability to get those synergies, but also add a dimension to the 2 businesses. And I think it's really nice that MTL was a good acquisition for our existing CCM business around Drexel and Peterson, got a great manager in Tony Mallinger and things we're bringing efficiencies we're bringing to the existing business by adding MTL. And then you look at PlastiFab and it really reinforces that Frank Ray's concept that we built around national distribution on being a national brand on really enhancing the Carlyle experience.

Speaker 4

I mean part of his core competency at Home Depot is a 24 hour delivery anywhere in the country. So we really get past positive that we're going to build out that EPS network as well. So they're really good fits and we do see more of those. We do see more opportunities around the building envelope and I think you'll see more of that from us certainly in 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 3

Yes. So as we look at the scale and size of them, we would expect to continue to deploy about $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 into these bolt on acquisitions a year for the next few years.

Speaker 7

Okay. Okay, great. And then, Kevin, just a clarification, that 3% industry volume number that you quoted, you guys were closer to mid single digits, just to make sure the math works?

Speaker 3

Yes. When you take into account some of the destock, then that puts us at the higher end there. Yes, I was excluding the destock impact.

Speaker 7

Got you. Okay, sounds good. I'll hop back in queue. Thanks guys.

Speaker 4

Thanks Tim.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Saree Boroditsky from Jefferies.

Speaker 8

Hi, good evening. So maybe just turning to CCM margins, obviously very strong performance in the quarter. You cited some positive raw material environment. Could you just talk about the price contribution to margins from the quarter? And anything else that drove that expansion?

Speaker 3

Yes. So price cost was neutral in the quarter for CCM. And as you said, it was very good margins up over 100 basis points to a record. And for us, that really demonstrates the power of the business where we can get these record margins, expand the margins without getting price because that's been a lot of the story in past years is we needed the price to get the margins. But now with utilizing the Carlyle operating system throughout CCM, that's driving these higher margins.

Speaker 8

And then you guys don't usually talk a ton about storm activity, but just given some of the recent hurricanes, how do we think about the potential for additional construction demand versus having lower days on the roof in the short term?

Speaker 4

Probably neutral, I would say. I think we definitely had some impact at the end of September and then into October. Our factories primarily floated around the Gulf. But obviously, we'll get some pickup from that. I mean, we hope people recover quickly.

Speaker 4

There was a lot of damage. And I think more importantly than the if we talk about weather, the bigger impact as those washout is probably around what kind of November, December we have across the country, Serena, whether we get a nice dry, warm fall or we get wet weather and more snow early in the north. So that's always the factor. But I think for the most part, the opportunity and the impact kind of wash each other out in the quarter, Q4.

Speaker 8

Appreciate it. If I could just add one more, you've talked about the ramping of the R and D investments at 3% of sales. Can you just talk about how we see that spending step up and maybe what the contribution will be for next year? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. We would expect to increase it around 50 basis points a year as we move forward to 2,030. So we're not going to get the 3% next year or even the following year. It's more of this steady increase of it throughout the next 5 years.

Speaker 8

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sherry.

Operator

Our next question will be coming from Susan Maklari. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. My first question is digging a little good afternoon. My first question is digging into the reroof side of things again. Can you talk a little bit about what the latest survey of your contractors has shown?

Speaker 9

Has that changed any over the last quarter? And how are you thinking about their positioning as they look to the fall and year end? And then how do you also within that think about the opportunities to capture some of that business given the MTL and the other acquisitions?

Speaker 4

Right. Well, the survey that we do really reflected everything I think you've written and others have written about more pressure on new and more pressure on the resi side of the business. And obviously, that's been reflected in more numbers than just ours, and I think it's pretty well understood. Very, very kind of positive on reroofing as we look out and we kind of bifurcate this into a near term look at what reroofing is doing. But on the long term, all those roofs that we've seen and we've talked about this before that are put on in the 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, these all come back at a higher price and have to be rerouted within 20 years.

Speaker 4

So the outlook for Q4 has been positive across the board. Obviously, we talked about the impact of what weather can do and there can be some impact on the margins. And then going into 'twenty five, I was actually surprised that the kind of initial indicators were positive both on return to volume. And I think, again, I spoke to the uncertainty now and the macroeconomic conditions that are here, uncertainty, people being concerned. But the 25% was more positive.

Speaker 4

And then surprisingly, there was some positive expectation around price that would be a positive as we headed into 2025. So early days, right? These are projections. This is across a wide group of contractors, but I think good news on that commercial side.

Speaker 9

Yes. Okay. And then can you talk a bit about your inventories within CCM? How those are going into the end of the year? And any thoughts on your production?

Speaker 4

Yes. And Sue, before I get into, we you asked about MTL and what's happening. MTL continues to make great strides to integrate into the specifications at CCM. As a reminder, MTL has patents and things like this and we're bringing those into their warranty. We're bringing our sales force teams together.

Speaker 4

I mean, it's only been about 6 months, but we're getting good traction there. We're seeing places where even Henry now is getting into the game where we will bid on a national chain and we'll suddenly see that Henry might be in there and they're bringing MTL and they're bringing CCM or vice versa. So there's really good synergies there and I'm really pleased with how quickly Brian and his team have integrated and really started to push that whole idea of the building envelope platform that we want. On inventories, inventory turns have been better. We're fine.

Speaker 4

Our deliveries continue to increase in terms of an on time delivery rate. It's always been good, but it has gotten better as we move through the quarter. And that's OTD to promise and then the 1st time fill rate. So I think we continue to have pretty good service and it continues to get better in the quarter. Okay.

Speaker 8

All right.

Speaker 6

Thanks for

Speaker 9

all the color. Good luck with everything.

Speaker 4

You bet. Thank you so much.

Operator

Next question will be coming from David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

Speaker 5

Yes, good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 4

Good afternoon, David.

Speaker 5

Chris, can you just talk about the polyiso market? And it seems as though you've got a lot of new capacity that's a lot relative large increase, I guess, in the amount of new capacity that's come to market in the last year. It seems like pricing has been a little sloppy. How are you thinking about that market right now? And how it can absorb that capacity over the next year or so?

Speaker 4

Well, I think when we look at additions, maybe we take it into 2 different groups. We look at our big three that us and our 2 big competitors have been here for a long time and use it as part of an integrated system. I mean, we look at the reroofing volumes over the coming years, we look at North America getting some reassuring, we look at what we're doing with the need for energy efficiency. I think we'll be fine with what's been added. We do have others that have announced they're going to come in.

Speaker 4

I think this is an interesting statement. I think it's going to be polyiso in the market, but it's not the same type of capacity as I would say out of those players that have a fully warrantied system, national coverage, training centers, tying it together with, as I just mentioned to Sue, bringing in the metal and that kind of stuff. So we still are looking to be the provider of the building envelope solution. We're looking to add pieces like PlastiFab, which is an installation company, obviously. And so I think there's been some capacity added and or at least talk about being added.

Speaker 4

And I don't understand how that might integrate into the markets we serve. We've had this happen before I think 3 years ago, maybe 4 years ago, we had a competitor from Canada come down and put a facility in Maryland and it was a TPO polyiso facility. And I think at the time, we'd had some questions around what's that going to do to the market. Obviously, we don't ever talk about that on our calls. And I would say the impact was negligible.

Speaker 4

So obviously, there's a lot more to being in this building envelope business than just showing up with a TPO line and a polyiso line. While that's a great start, I'm sure for someone, we've got a lot of years of relationships and other things that again, I like to think about it, Mehul, and Frank talks about this too, BP Tech is a great idea. It's not just having the piece of Blue Skin or the vapor barrier, the EPS or the Board, it's putting them all together and then selling them through a highly talented sales network to architects and contractors and builders. And so, I think we're good. I think we've got a great outlook for North American construction markets.

Speaker 4

And so I think what we've added well seems to be quite a bit compared to what we're used to, I think we'll be okay with it.

Speaker 5

Good. Thank you for that detail. That's a great answer. Can you just walk us through your outlook for each of your principal raw material inputs just in terms of price trends and what you're seeing there?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think we had talked about MDI for the year being a little bit down. I know our TPO resins were a little bit up, EPDM resins or I should say, polymers down. So when we look overall, that's where we're getting to some savings that those that are down are overwhelming. But for the most part, it's been pretty stable from the year and much as we expected.

Speaker 4

I think some of it, obviously, depends on demand. And in the resi markets, obviously, that's been down. But overall, relatively stable.

Speaker 5

Good. Last question for me is just on CWT and you talked about EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA being down 14 percent. Can you just bifurcate for us the investments that were made there versus the volume deleverage?

Speaker 4

Yes. When we looked at it, we tried to break it into something that we all could, there's a lot of moving parts, but basically about a third of that was the deteriorated continued deterioration in the resi markets. Both the resi new and the R and R were both down about mid single digits. Obviously, I'll say it, but you already know it, it's interest rates, affordability, election uncertainty. And then we had a little bit of an impact from the spray pump side of the business where a little bit of a rational pricing from some competitors that had a bit of an impact.

Speaker 4

But let's say that made up a third. And then the second, third, really was the investments. And maybe I'll let Mehul go into what those investments are. He's our residential, or I should say, CVT expert.

Speaker 6

Sure. Thanks, Chris. Hey, Dave. How are you? So you've heard us talk about carrying initiatives within CWT across expansion in the Home Depot retail side of the business as well as expanding into the national builders with their full system offerings and then advanced waterproofing penetration.

Speaker 6

So those are areas where we're investing in the sales organization, adding people as well as equipment to drive our strategy there. In addition to that, we've had additional marketing and ad co op programs at the retail channel as we expand into additional categories. And then you hear us talk about R and D as part of Vision 2,030. So on CWT, you heard about products like Blue Skin VP Tech. We're investing in that in R and D.

Speaker 6

And then lastly, as part of our cross selling and selling the full system across the different CWT businesses, we've been investing in IT and systems and tools to make it a better customer experience. So that kind of gives you an idea of where we're spending the additional money and it's going to support further long term growth. And as we continue to grow, we should get a good return and see margins improve going forward.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks for the detail. Good luck.

Speaker 4

Thanks David.

Operator

Next question will be coming from Bryan Blair from Oppenheimer.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Good afternoon, guys.

Speaker 4

Hey, good afternoon, Bryan.

Speaker 10

Chris, you mentioned likely neutral Q4 impact from the hurricanes. Obviously, there was some headwind from the first when that hit in Q3. Just to level set, what was the total impact between the port strikes and the initial impact of the first hurricane top line and margin to the extent that can be quantified?

Speaker 3

Yes. In the top line, it's about $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 of impact in the Q3. And yes, to the bottom line, you can do our incrementals off of that. So 40% is the impact there for the Q3. And then yes, Chris said, we don't see it coming back in the 4th quarter getting that pickup, but 2025 is when we'll see more of the recovery of that piece that was slowed down due to the hurricanes right now.

Speaker 3

Obviously, in the southeast, the focus is on the essential jobs and the repairs. They're not doing as much work on new projects, but that's what we think will kick in, in 2025.

Speaker 10

Okay, understood. And Chris, you'd walk through some of the puts and takes for CCM looking to 2025, maybe do the same with CWT. How are you thinking about recovery prospects, continued watch items, related swing factors, etcetera?

Speaker 4

Yes. Well, I think you've got a lot of really positive things. I think, we will mention a couple of them. We've obviously expanded our retail channel. That was a great synergy that we don't build into the $30,000,000 of synergies that we had in the Henry deal that came as a bonus.

Speaker 4

So the expansion into the retail channel has been good. We've talked about some of the different products like I mentioned, the Ultra Touch Denim Insulation. We've got some other projects that are going on. So I like that. Frank's VP Tech, really this new product, the whole innovation pipeline thing in a microcosm and CWT, that team has done a pretty good job as even indicated by the supplier recognition at Home Depot.

Speaker 4

I think the bigger things for us are really just around the economy and this affordability. I think a couple of interest rate cuts that will be needed will help. We've got to get people moving again. That affordability is an issue. We do know there's backlog in housing stock.

Speaker 4

So let's get see that happen. CapEx gets deployed. So I think that as well as CapEx and we haven't talked about it much on this call, but we did invest a lot into automation into CWT, things like auto brief auto fill, taking really labor out of the equation, automating that and increasing both the quality, reducing the waste and increasing the efficiency of our factories and Frank has done a nice job there. So again, to me, when we look at the quarter and we think about that 1 third, 2 thirds, I think that 1 third in the beginning, while it may not have been as impactful as these investments, obviously, if the volume is there to run through it, incrementals have been pretty good and we were on a good pace to do that before we saw that further deterioration. So you slip for this rebound in the resi and repair and remodel markets and I think it will have a it will be there.

Speaker 4

Whether it happens in the Q1 or not, I think I would look more towards the second half of the year, but we're confident it will be there.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you for all the color.

Operator

Our next question will be coming from Adam Baumgarten from Zelman.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Just on the price cost, any change to the outlook of flat for the year at this point? No. Not on I assume you're talking on the CCM side.

Speaker 7

Yes. Just because I think you said

Speaker 4

it was flat in 3Q, right? Yes. Okay, cool. And then just on CCM specifically on pricing, just curious what you saw throughout the quarter, especially kind of later in the quarter and into 4Q and maybe what you're hearing from your distribution customers around price competition? Yes.

Speaker 4

And I think it's been pretty I wouldn't say it's widely disseminated. But I think for pricing, we're seeing relative stability. I mean, I think back to a few years ago when there was a raw materials would go down and we would just see pricing tied to raw materials. And I think as we pushed price discipline and as we push price to value, it's been pretty good to see our competitors investing in new factories, investing in innovation, investing in their sales teams and really ensuring that they get paid for those investments they're making. So again, I think just what we got, as I said earlier in the call, what we got out of our survey was a relatively stable pricing environment throughout the year.

Speaker 4

I think Kevin had said at the beginning of the year, we'd probably be down 2% for the year.

Speaker 5

And I think we're going to

Speaker 4

be pretty close to that despite all the issues that have gone out through the year. And then I think going into 2025, the feedback was that there might be some upside to pricing from our survey. So we'll see how that plays out. But that is a good thing when our contractor base and our other fits in our value chain are thinking like that. Great.

Speaker 4

Thanks a lot. Best of luck. You bet. Thank you.

Operator

And our last question for today will be coming from Garik Moise from Loop Capital.

Speaker 5

Thanks for squeezing me in. So just two questions on CWT, just first on pricing. It remains down, I think that's fairly consistent with what you saw earlier in the year. But just wondering, maybe similar to the earlier question on CCM, if the pricing cadences changed at all in CWT?

Speaker 3

Yes, it's steadily improved throughout the year. We're in the back half of the year is about 2% down. First half of the year was a little bit higher than that at CWT. So it has improved. We're expecting down couple percent in both Q3, which we had as well as in Q4.

Speaker 6

And Derek, one thing I will add, just going back to our last earnings call when we talked about additional pricing pressure on spray foam. Outside of that, everything is in line. There's no pricing pressure. We're holding prices stable similar to CCM and declines that Kevin mentioned that's pretty much in line with what we said on the last earnings call.

Speaker 5

Great. Appreciate the color there. And then just on the trends in CWT during the quarter and the outlook, just given the disconnect on what you're looking for coming out of 2Q, and I think it implied maybe mid single digit type revenue growth in the back half of the year and kind of appreciate the residential, it remains weak. But any more color as to maybe either sales trends throughout the quarter or any specific product line or channels that have just haven't materialized to the degree you expected?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think when we look at each segment, it's been pretty good as Mehul said. I mean relative to what our expectations were in coming to the year and then even in the Q2, and I really don't think we can underestimate the impact of the residential markets, the affordability, the fact that people aren't moving. And I think those I think earlier in the year, we had a lot of talk about even 3 interest rate cuts and then we got one and that was it. And I think that kind of has helped or not helped, but it's hurt people because they're saying we'll maybe able to stick around and wait and see if things get better in 2025.

Speaker 4

So why act now when I could maybe do it later? And then I think the bigger impact from a product line perspective has just been probably a little more deterioration in spray foam than we thought in that one segment. And again, that's tough one. It's a very compelling market. It's got a lot of energy efficiency benefits to it.

Speaker 4

It's a much better product from an R value perspective. From a vapor barrier perspective, we're seeing it wide adoption in homebuilding, the sound bedding benefits. It's a great product, but we've had some industry changes over the last 5 years where there's been acquisitions by 1 group and some regional players that have maybe taken some different actions. And so pricing has been a little bit worse there than we thought. And I'd say that would be the one thing that or those two things are the things that really impacted that CWT pricing in the Q3 and looking into the 4th.

Speaker 5

Okay. No, I appreciate that. Thanks and best of luck in Q4.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks, Kurt.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call over to Chris Koch for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks everybody. This concludes the Q3 call for Carlyle. Thanks for the participation. Thanks for the great questions. Look forward to speaking with you all on our next call.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Carlisle Companies Q3 2024
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