TSE:GEI Gibson Energy Q3 2024 Earnings Report C$22.04 +0.16 (+0.73%) As of 04/25/2025 04:00 PM Eastern Earnings HistoryForecast Gibson Energy EPS ResultsActual EPSC$0.33Consensus EPS C$0.32Beat/MissBeat by +C$0.01One Year Ago EPSC$0.21Gibson Energy Revenue ResultsActual RevenueN/AExpected RevenueN/ABeat/MissN/AYoY Revenue GrowthN/AGibson Energy Announcement DetailsQuarterQ3 2024Date10/29/2024TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateWednesday, October 30, 2024Conference Call Time9:00AM ETConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckInterim ReportEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Gibson Energy Q3 2024 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrOctober 30, 2024 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Gibson Energy Third Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Beth Pollock, Vice President, Capital Markets and Risk. Ms. Pollock, please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:21Thank you, Therese. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q3 2024 operational and financial results. Joining me on the call this morning from Gibson Energy are Curtis Fillipon, President and Chief Executive Officer and Sean Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have additional senior management team members in the room to help with questions and answers as required. Listeners are reminded that today's call refers to non GAAP measures, forward looking information and is subject to certain assumptions and adjustments and may not be indicative of actual results. Speaker 100:00:59Descriptions and qualifications of such measures and information are set out in our investor presentation available on our website and our continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR Plus. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Curtis. Speaker 200:01:15Thank you, Beth. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be here today for my 1st quarterly call with Gibson Energy. Before we get into our Q3 results, I'd like to take a moment to introduce myself. Prior to joining Gibson, I've been in the North American energy sector for over 20 years, The most recent decade of which was spent as the President and CEO of a low carbon energy distribution business. Speaker 200:01:41During my time there, we were successful in developing solutions to bridge gaps and infrastructure and in doing so profitably grew the business in both Canada and the U. S. And generated substantial shareholder value. We're looking forward to doing the same at Gibson. Since joining the company, I've had the opportunity to visit our operations in Edmonton, Hardisty, Moose Jaw, Wink and Ingleside. Speaker 200:02:07And what struck me is the quality and experience of our team who take pride in operating our assets safely and efficiently as well as our strong customer relationships. It is impressive seeing Gibson's critical energy infrastructure for firsthand. Our operations span from touching 1 in 4 barrels produced in Western Canada to exporting Permian and Eagle Ford barrels through the 2nd largest crude export terminal in the U. S. These irreplaceable assets provide a tremendous platform for growth. Speaker 200:02:41Our focus is on strengthening our high performance team culture and running our business well. Over the next year, our strategic priorities are delivering on the potential in Gateway and realizing the growth opportunities that surround our asset base. Now turning to our Q3 results, I'm pleased to report that we've had another strong quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $151,000,000 driven by near record contribution from our infrastructure segment of $150,000,000 From a commercial perspective, construction of the 2 new tanks at our Edmonton terminal has progressed according to schedule and we expect to place them into service by the end of the year. These tanks will add value for Cenovus by providing 870,000 barrels of storage capacity and a high degree of connectivity including into TMX. During the quarter, we also started work on the Cactus II connection at our Gateway terminal, which will provide our customers with access to approximately 700,000 barrels a day of incremental Permian supply. Speaker 200:03:48We expect the connection to be in service in Q3 2025. As mentioned on our last call, we announced the Cactus II connection along with the extension of a long term contract at our Gateway Terminal on July 15, which is backed by a high quality investment grade counterparty. With respect to Gateway operations, we continue to see growing demand for our services at the terminal and contracting discussions with customers are moving forward. Our confidence in extending a second contract is unchanged and we still expect to continue achieving our previously communicated commercial objectives regarding tender and rate. So in summary, my Q1 at Gibson has been a pleasure. Speaker 200:04:31The team has delivered a solid quarter and I'm excited about the potential going forward. I'll now pass the call over to Sean, who will walk through our financial results in more detail. Speaker 300:04:41Thanks, Curtis. To focus on our financial results, we delivered another solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $151,000,000 slightly higher than the Q3 of 2023 due to an additional month of Gateway EBITDA contribution, partially offset by lower marketing earnings. In our Infrastructure segment, we reported $150,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the 3rd quarter, dollars 10,000,000 higher than in the Q3 of last year due to a full quarter of contribution from Gateway as well as continued strong performance from the rest of our infrastructure assets. This is relatively in line with Q2 2024 where we reported record Infrastructure segment EBITDA. Turning to the Marketing segment. Speaker 300:05:29Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $14,000,000 was below the guidance provided on our Q2 call and represented a $10,000,000 decrease relative to Q3 2023 and a $6,000,000 decrease relative to the Q2 of this year. While crude marketing results were in line or slightly ahead of expectations entering the quarter, refined products results were softer than expected due primarily to weakness in the drilling fluid market. Variance to the comparable period last year was also largely driven by refined products with notably weaker demand for light sour product at Moose Jaw, though we did also see fewer crude trading opportunities. With respect to our forward outlook, based on market conditions, we anticipate modest marketing segment performance in the Q4. The crude marketing segment is expected to be impacted by low Western Canadian storage levels, which will likely moderate any time based opportunities and contribute to lower volatility. Speaker 300:06:32The refined products segment is also expected to perform modestly due to soft drilling fluid demand combined with tight heavy differentials. We are also heading into the winter asphalt season where the focus is typically on building storage inventories. On an annual basis, under this outlook, marketing is expected to end the year at or below our run rate guidance of $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 Though I would note, we are prepared to take advantage of incremental opportunities should they arise. That being said, with the benefit of our Gateway acquisition, marketing now represents a smaller proportion of our business at 10% to 15% on a trailing 12 month basis. We've also operated at these levels on many occasions historically and are well positioned from a balance sheet perspective given our continued commitment to our key governing financial principles as we move forward. Speaker 300:07:27To complete the discussion of results for this quarter, I'll briefly walk through a couple of items impacting distributable cash flow. The Q3 2024 distributable cash flow result of approximately $88,000,000 with a $5,000,000 decrease from the Q3 of 2023 and a $13,000,000 decrease relative to the Q2 of this year. The year over year delta was driven by current income tax returning to normalized levels after benefiting from one time tax deductions related to the Gateway acquisition in the Q3 of last year. The quarter over quarter delta was driven by lower marketing results, higher replacement capital expenditures and current income tax. We also maintained our commitment to our financial governing principles with leverage of 3.2 times, within our target range of 3 times to 3.5 times. Speaker 300:08:20I would note that given the current market structure, marketing inventories are below what we typically hold, so our current revolver balance is somewhat artificially low resulting in a lower leverage metric. Our payout ratio of 65% remains below our 70% to 80% target range, highlighting the sustainability of our dividend. On an infrastructure only basis, our payout ratio is approximately 71%, well below our target of 100% and leverage of 3.4 times is also below our target of 4 times. With ample headroom with respect to both ratios, we have significant financial flexibility notwithstanding any softness in our marketing business. In terms of capital allocation, we continue to be committed to be disciplined and focused on maximizing shareholder value. Speaker 300:09:14Given our current outlook for full year capital expenditures, marketing performance and our unwavering commitment to our key governing financial principles, we do not foresee buybacks during the Q4 in the absence of business outperformance. However, share repurchases remain a critical part of our capital allocation strategy and we will provide an update on our outlook when we announce our 2025 capital guidance in early December. Overall, we have a strong and conservative financial profile. Our leverage is low both on a total and infrastructure adjusted basis. Our quality of cash flows continues to increase with the relative growth in our infrastructure business and we have significant liquidity and a staggered debt maturity profile. Speaker 300:10:02As we move forward, this financial profile will continue to offer us considerable financial flexibility. In summary, Gibson delivered solid results in the Q3 of the year, with infrastructure results remaining stable and financial metrics within or better than our target ranges. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open it up for questions. Operator00:10:25Thank Our first question today comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities. Your line is open. Speaker 400:10:55Good morning, everyone. This is Eli Johnson on for Jeremy. Just wanted to start on the marketing performance the team touched on in the opening remarks. So recognize there's been some headwinds driving performance to the lower end of the guide. But can you maybe speak to the longer term expectations for the segment? Speaker 400:11:14Are there positive tailwinds in the future? Or should we think about these levels on more of a run rate basis? Speaker 300:11:22Hey, good morning Eli. Speaker 200:11:25When I look at the marketing business, you have to recognize that the marketing business will have some lumpiness to it. But if you look over the long term, we're still comfortable with our long term guidance of the 80 to 120 is a reasonable way to look at it. The marketing business that continue to be a good part of the Gibson portfolio. When you look forward, we got these great assets that allow you to generate strong marketing business and in times of volatility generate even more lumpy positive earnings. Speaker 400:11:59Sure. Thanks. And then maybe just on Gateway, I know the re contracting announcement didn't come this quarter and recognize that those discussions are ongoing. But maybe just thinking about the organic growth outlook for the asset itself, can you remind us kind of what the expectations are for upside opportunities at the asset and how you guys are progressing against those? Speaker 200:12:31So I think believe our guidance in the past has been an upside opportunity of 15% to 20% upside as we think about both capital and non capital improvements on that. And I would say I'm in the seat now sort of 60 days in the seat and quite pleasantly surprised to Speaker 500:12:47see that Speaker 200:12:48those are underway and very actionable and we're feeling good about that 15% to 20% uptick available to the business. Speaker 400:12:58Great. Thanks. I'll leave it Operator00:13:02there. Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Speaker 600:13:17Good morning, everyone. Chris, so you did mention you've been on the seat belt for roughly around 60 days. What do you think the most impactful changes that you've made over the 1st 60 days have been in the organization? And then as you look out for the next 60 days, what are the key changes you want to see there as well? Speaker 200:13:37Good morning, Rob. For me in the 1st 60 days, it's been a lot of getting out and meeting our teams and spending time out in our assets, seeing the assets and getting to know the business in a deeper way. And so I would say early on, it's a lot of getting to know that the business and the people involved with it. First step for me coming into the organization is really looking hard at the people and making sure that we've got the people, the right people on the bus going in the right direction. And so one of the first things that we did here over the near term actually started even before I joined is a bit of a pullback to the office. Speaker 200:14:19And so we actually said, hey, we need people back in the office in a bigger way and that was something that was started before I came. But you can see the impact of that, I think, over the last 60 days that you've got a greater presence of people back in the office working on a more regular basis in the office versus a remote. And it's a small thing, but I believe it drives a culture shift that our operations are out in the field every single day, sort of our Calgary and Houston offices also coming back in the office and being there in a bigger way as a cultural impact as well and I think increases our effectiveness. So that's step 1. And as we move into step 2, we're looking hard to make sure we've got the right people in the seats in the organization and setting ourselves up for success and that's going quite well. Speaker 200:15:06And as I go through the operations and look at the opportunities going forward, we spent a lot of time talking about growth. And how do you find interesting growth opportunities around the assets. And for me 60 days coming in, I've been very impressed with both the quality of the assets that we have in the operations and the people we've got in our operations. But also I would say positively impressed with the really interesting growth opportunities that we've got around our current asset base and the opportunity is for levers for growth around that. And so I think over the next 60 days internally, we'll spend a lot of time just continuing to develop and evaluate those things as we look into next year and what we're going to do from a growth perspective in 2025. Speaker 300:15:55Thanks for that. And then maybe turning over Speaker 600:15:57to capital allocation priorities or strategies. Sean, you did mention that on an infra only basis, the payout ratio as well as leverage are below your targets. So when you think about pause or not pushing on the buyback into Q4, is that a function of just keeping some powder dry as you're seeing some good growth opportunities into 2025, keeping your powder dry for M and A? Or is it really a function of just better understanding what the strategy will be longer term here? Speaker 300:16:32Thanks, Rob. I think what that really is, I touched upon it in the prepared remarks, but if you looked at it, our leverage is 3.2 times. It's certainly at the low end of the range and something that you may think would be a predicator of reinitiating buybacks in the Q4. What I did touch upon though is that our inventories right now are really quite, quite low, just given the current market structure. If you normalize that to a what would be a more normal inventory level for us, the leverage actually goes up sort of the mid ish or higher end of that range. Speaker 300:17:05And just given our absolute laser focus on our key governing financial principles, it's just what we felt appropriate. So the leverage at appearance would seem to be at the low end. We'd look at it in a more normalized basis more at the mid to higher end if you normalize for those inventory levels and it's really reflective of that, just an absolute unwavering commitment to those key governing financial principles. But I do want to reiterate that our commitment to our capital allocation priorities does not change. Curtis touched upon it. Speaker 300:17:38Focus will and always be on growth opportunities. But to the extent that we have excess cash flow, we still remain committed to the buyback on a longer term basis. Speaker 700:17:52Thank you. Operator00:17:56Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from Morris Choi with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Speaker 800:18:07Thank you and good morning everyone. Maybe I could start with you Curtis. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that you developed solutions to bridge gaps in infrastructure and you plan to do the same in Gibson Energy. And you also hope to realize the growth potential surrounding the company's asset base. Could you elaborate more on any gaps you may be seeing today and elaborate on this organic growth potential you speak of at the company? Speaker 200:18:37Yes. Good morning, Morris. When I look at our asset base, like we have this unbelievable base of assets in Western Canada and down into the U. S. And around those assets, what I've seen 60 days in is some really interesting opportunities to increase throughput through our assets, look for opportunities to increase profitability within the assets, grow the customer base. Speaker 200:19:04And I think increasingly is there ways to sort of increase that competitive mode around the assets. And so there's a number of things that go beyond just building there are opportunities with TMX to build more tanks as well. But I think it goes beyond just building more tanks that there's really interesting ways for us to increase the throughput to our facilities. The obvious one that we've talked about in the past is the dredging projects that we're going through, the deepening project for our Ingleside facility where we're spending a lot of time right now going through the engineering of that to be able to increase the throughput capacity of that facility. That's a great example of the type of project that allows us to really increase the throughput, increase the profitability, make it more attractive for a wider base of customers. Speaker 200:19:52And there's other ones like that, that I find are quite attractive. Speaker 800:19:58So as you think about all these gateway opportunities, including the dredging program and tie that back to the second contract extension that you're still negotiating. How does that all work together in terms of timing? Would you consider offering potential for that with the second customer before signing an extension or is it all separate? Speaker 200:20:24It's definitely part of our conversation in our contract negotiations is what are some of the capabilities of the facility. And so the deepening is a consideration in that contract extension. And so that's something that we're working through over the coming months. But it's a compelling project for us regardless, Morris. We see a lot of benefit in increase in that capacity. Speaker 200:20:49So internally, we're spending a lot of time running full speed to make sure we've got all the engineering ready and planning that we're able to do that deepening work in the front half of next year. Speaker 800:21:03Understood. And then if I could finish off with a question on marketing here. I think, Sean, you mentioned that the 2024 marketing may potentially be at or below the long term guidance of $80,000,000 to 120,000,000 Do you anticipate the market conditions to materially change as you head into the new year? Or are there things that you're seeing that could improve your outlook? Speaker 300:21:28Yes, I think over the course of the year, I mean there's many things. I mean there's a lot of different factors that go into marketing. I think right now, as I talked about in Speaker 700:21:35the prepared remarks, Speaker 300:21:37our crude marketing business actually performed as we expected going into the Q3. So, real credit to the team in that and what is not a perfect environment necessarily for that business. I mean on the refined products side, we are going as I talked about it as well in the prepared remarks, we are going into the asphalt build season right now. So I mean Q4 seasonally would always be a bit weaker for that business. And as we move into next year, we certainly do hope for it to improve. Speaker 300:22:06And if we look at the totality of the year as well, there's a lot that can happen throughout the year. So we are right now sort of in the midst of budgeting, but I mean our visibility as Curtis touched upon earlier would be sort of in around a similar environment as we move into next year, as we look at it today, but resulting in something that would probably be within that $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 But again, a lot of things can change throughout the year, but that's the visibility we have right now. Speaker 800:22:41Understood. Thank you very much. Operator00:22:46Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question does come from Patrick Kenny with NBF. Your line is open. Speaker 900:23:00Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just with the record throughput at the Edmonton terminal, could you just provide an update on customer demand or potential timing for sanctioning additional tankage capacity to fully build out the site? Speaker 300:23:19Yes. Thanks, Pat. It's Sean here. I'll take that. I mean, obviously with TMX up and running, that would be so the driver of the record activity that we saw at the facility, I think we would agree with sort of industry in general that TMX seems to have gone very well thus far through operation. Speaker 300:23:40We as we look at our terminal, we continue to see a very compelling service offering as it relates to new takeage demand there. We have a tank that we put into service Q3 last year. We have another 2 tanks that we're going to put into service late this year as Chris touched upon in his prepared remarks. And again, I'd remind people under a 15 year contract with Nova is a great partner that we have. So as we look, we have room for at least another 2 tanks there. Speaker 300:24:11Over the long term, we certainly see the demand for that tankage surfacing. We had said that people wanted to see really TMX in operation before making that decision, really no change from a timing perspective there. We continue to think that the service offering that we provided at Edmonton is very compelling. We think over time those tanks will get built and our commercial team is as they always have been in active discussions with potential counterparties and around that. Speaker 900:24:42Got it. Thanks for that. And then maybe for Curtis, I know it's still early days here, but any comments on how you're thinking about the energy transition strategy for the company? And if you're focusing more on smaller opportunities across the existing asset base or perhaps considering moving into other verticals outside of crude oil infrastructure such as NGL infrastructure or even natural gas? Speaker 200:25:12Yes. As we think about energy transition specifically, we do look at energy transition projects and that's part of our strategies we're looking forward. But I would say our focus from a growth perspective is a disciplined growth. And regardless of the nature of the project, all projects are competing for capital and have to still fit into the same infrastructure fundamentals that we look for. And so there's no sort of different lens for the energy transition projects. Speaker 200:25:40We need to make sure that they still meet all those same compelling returns and infrastructure fundamentals. So that's the key thing for us as we look at that. Now I think as we look forward over the next few years, there will be things for us to do in that, that line up really well in our core competencies that do meet those thresholds and we'll keep working at that to eventually add that leg to the business in a bigger way. When I look at growth for Gibson, and we'll talk more about this over time, but when I look at it right now, I see a lot of really interesting growth opportunities right around our current asset base. But we wouldn't be doing our job if we weren't out there also thinking about what is the next platform for growth for Gibson. Speaker 200:26:23And just like we did with Gateway and we added that next platform that offered a lot of other organic growth around that asset. We'll keep looking at those things. An energy transition will be part of that. There's things to look at for the next platform of growth. But I got to say, we do have a lot of compelling things right around the core asset base as well. Speaker 200:26:40So there's a sort of a constant competition for growth. And when I look forward for growth in the next year, what we're pushing the team is to sort of increase that funnel of opportunities coming at us. So we really have a strong competition for the best opportunities coming forward. And ideally, we're I think we've messaged the range of $150,000,000 or so of growth capital. And I'm not pushed to say, how do we get closer to the $200,000,000 level? Speaker 200:27:06And What are those real interesting opportunities we can bring forward that both surround our current asset base, but also look longer term at adding that next growth leg. Speaker 900:27:18Okay, that's great. I appreciate the color. Thank you. Operator00:27:23Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Speaker 500:27:36Hi, good morning, everyone. I want to just continue on with the marketing conversation for a minute here. Obviously, we have a little bit of visibility into crack spreads even if Gibson's unique product slate is a little bit different. But what's changed, I think, is the crude oil marketing opportunities. The last two quarters, it seems like there's been fewer opportunities than you've been accustomed to. Speaker 500:28:04And of course, that coincides with the onset of TMX coming into service. So my question for you is, what gives you confidence that you can maintain the existing range, understanding that there's lumpiness as you suggested. But what gives you confidence that the fundamentals haven't changed over the long term to put that $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 in jeopardy? Or said another way, what do you think has to change in the market to give you more visibility to the $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 range? Speaker 300:28:39Thanks, Rob. I mean, we talked about in the prepared remarks. I mean, really, if we thought about the weakness that we saw this quarter, it was really almost entirely on the refined product side. So appreciate the commentary. But as I said, I think in an answer to previous question, I mean, our crude marketing business has done a fantastic job in generating margin even in this environment. Speaker 300:29:03So, that is partially where we get confidence. It is performing really as we expected entering the year and continues to perform as we expected. We've got visibility into where refined products is. You're absolutely right as you speak to the crack spreads. But as I said, we are right now sort of knee deep in our budgeting process, but and that's a very comprehensive effort that we put in here. Speaker 300:29:28And the results of that are where that budgeting process looks to be coming out is where actually we get some of that confidence and being able to say, we still think that that $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 is a valid number, notwithstanding some of the structural shifts we've seen in the market. Speaker 500:29:47Okay. Thanks for that. And I just wanted to touch on the waste to energy opportunity. I read the updates. Obviously, there's really no update yet. Speaker 500:29:58You're still working on developing that opportunity. But I wondered if you could give any updates as to your confidence levels or where you think the CapEx might end up for Gibson on that project if it were to in fact move forward? Speaker 200:30:15Hi, Rob. From the waste energy, as we've mentioned in the past, really we talked about this project because we had some partners involved and so that one's out in the open a bit more. But the way I think about that project, it's one of several that we're looking at in the background that has an interesting potential growth leg. The assessment in the background is going as expected. We're going through both the technical and commercial review of that. Speaker 200:30:42For us to get comfortable and actually going forward with that, it would have to demonstrate with a high degree of confidence that we've got a very strong compelling return, still lines up with all those infrastructure fundamentals, still provides a nice platform for growth to be worth the distraction and time that we'd put in that to go forward. And so I'd say we're going through that review right now, but I wouldn't put that project ahead of some other ones that we're putting we've got we're working in the background either. And so I think more updates to come on that. We'll obviously update once we get through the review, but no new update for this quarter. Speaker 500:31:20Okay. Thanks for the perspective. Speaker 300:31:24Thanks, Rob. Operator00:31:28Our next call comes from Ben Pham with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 700:31:35Hi, thanks. Good morning. Could you comment on the additional projects that you're looking on in the background that's ahead of the waste energy facility? Speaker 200:31:54Probably for competitive reasons, we probably won't come out and give full disclosure on all those projects. But there are there's interesting things to do. Even if I was to give a little bit more visibility, one of the interesting options as you look at our gateway facility is that we are getting a lot of demand from customers for things like increasing ability to handle more Eagle Ford barrels. And what are some of the implications of bringing more Eagle Ford barrels and customers through that facility is something we're seeing a lot of customer interest in and is there interesting capital projects to do around that is one thing that we're evaluating. But there's a number of things like that, that we're thinking about both on the Canadian assets and the U. Speaker 200:32:37S. Assets. Speaker 700:32:40Okay, got it. And maybe going back to the share buyback commentary, you think about through year end, is there any conditions or what factors would drive perhaps you revisiting a share buyback opportunity? Speaker 300:33:01In Q4, you mean, Ben? Speaker 700:33:03That's right. I think then beginning of the year, last December, you mentioned maybe share buybacks by year end. I think we have thought process and now it sounds like it's just tweaked a bit here. Speaker 300:33:15Yes. No, I think if you recall, our previous messaging had been, we revisit near the towards the tail end of the year. Factors that would have influenced share buybacks positively would have been a lower growth capital than guide. And at the time, we had a guide of $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 And then the second one would have been marketing outperformance. If you look at take both of those factors, growth capital looks like it's coming in right and around that $150,000,000 number. Speaker 300:33:45And if anything, marketing has somewhat underperformed based as you would have seen given the guide we had going into the quarter and the financial results. So based on those two factors alone, it would point to not having buybacks in the quarter. So what could change it going forward? I mean, the capital is fairly locked in. So I don't see that changing. Speaker 300:34:06If we saw tremendous volatility in the market and our marketing business was able to take advantage of that, Potentially that could be a factor, but what we would also take into consideration is what's our growth capital outlook as we look into next year. And Curtis spoke to it already, extremely excited to already sanction the Cactus connection, working very hard on a potential deepening of the dock at Gateway. So we do think we've got a number of exciting growth capital opportunities there. But in a direct answer to your question, what could change it, it would be massive outperformance due to market volatility that we see in the Q4, which certainly we're prepared to take advantage of if it happens, but I wouldn't say is our expectation. Speaker 700:34:53Okay, perfect. And maybe just one last one, your inventory comment too. I mean, it looks like there's been some pretty big swings in that. I think Q2, you look like you had more leverage than expected or may not expect, but more than the normalized and now it's below. Has there been a change in how you're managing net working capital or inventory versus the past? Speaker 700:35:19No. And no, it's just so you use that's just Q3 before you build up. Speaker 300:35:25No, purely market Yes, purely market structure, Ben. Actually, even the Q2 one was somewhat artificially high. It was more timing of actual inventory sales. So what showed up in our revolver was a bit higher than the actuality. But at a high level, we started the year with a tremendous amount of inventory just given the market structure and we have sold that inventory given current market structure. Speaker 300:35:52So no real change from past practice at all. It's just the net result of the structure throughout the year. Speaker 700:36:02Okay. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much. Speaker 300:36:06Thanks, Ben. Operator00:36:08Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Linton with Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 600:36:18Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple of housekeeping items for me, I guess. On the infrastructure side of the business, it just looks like volumes ticked down a little bit quarter over quarter. Just wondering what the key drivers behind that were and how we should think about it moving forward? Speaker 300:36:37Yes. Thanks for that, Anthony. It's Sean here. Yes, nothing really no read through there. I mean, if you go through sort of our core infrastructure assets, we talked about Edmonton with TMX, sort of peak volumes there. Speaker 300:36:51Our gateway volumes continue to be extremely strong, so no change there. The variance this quarter was really in around Hardisty and that is really just a factor of some of the upstream activity at our customer facility. So nothing systematic there. You would see if you looked over the course of any year depending on the activities of some of our customers, you would see a similar variance. So nothing specific there really. Speaker 600:37:19Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just another question on the normalized inventory level and you touched on it in the previous response, but where do you sort of think normalized inventory level shakes out given some of the volatility year to date? And will we see most of that in Q4? Speaker 600:37:36Or is that going to happen over the course of 2025? Speaker 300:37:41Yes, I'll take that one again. I mean, I think the current view is right now is that inventory levels will remain relatively low through Q4. To the extent that the market structure changes somewhat, I think you would see some of that build through 2025. But we need it really depends on market structure at any time. Speaker 600:38:03Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Speaker 300:38:06You bet. Operator00:38:09Thank you. There are no further questions. So I would like to now hand the call back to Beth. Speaker 100:38:19Thank you, Therese, and thank you for joining us for our 2024 Q3 conference call. Again, I would like to note that we've made available certain supplementary information on our website, gibsonenergy.com. If you have any further questions, please reach out to investor. Relationsgibsonenergy.com. Operator00:38:39Thank you.Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallGibson Energy Q3 202400:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckInterim report Gibson Energy Earnings HeadlinesCIBC Cuts Gibson Energy (TSE:GEI) Price Target to C$26.00April 27 at 1:21 AM | americanbankingnews.comGibson Energy FY2025 EPS Forecast Reduced by Atb Cap MarketsApril 26 at 3:31 AM | americanbankingnews.comWarning: “DOGE Collapse” imminentElon Strikes Back You may already sense that the tide is turning against Elon Musk and DOGE. Just this week, President Trump promised to buy a Tesla to help support Musk in the face of a boycott against his company. But according to one research group, with connections to the Pentagon and the U.S. government, Elon's preparing to strike back in a much bigger way in the days ahead.April 27, 2025 | Altimetry (Ad)This 8% Dividend Stock is a Must-Buy as Trump Tariffs Hit CanadaMarch 4, 2025 | msn.comGibson Energy: 8% Yield To Wait While Marketing Reverses Its FortunesFebruary 25, 2025 | seekingalpha.comGibson Energy's Projections Indicate Future Payments May Be UnsustainableFebruary 22, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comSee More Gibson Energy Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Gibson Energy? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Gibson Energy and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Gibson EnergyGibson Energy (TSE:GEI), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering, storage, optimization, processing, and marketing of liquids and refined products in Canada and the United States. It operates through Infrastructure and Marketing segments. The Infrastructure segment operates a network of liquid infrastructure assets that include oil terminals, rail loading and unloading facilities, gathering pipelines, a crude oil processing facility, and other terminals. The Marketing segment purchases, sells, stores, and optimizes hydrocarbon products, including crude oil, natural gas liquids, road asphalt, roofing flux, frac oils, light and heavy straight run distillates, vacuum gas oil, and an oil-based mud product. It serves producers, refiners, marketers, and integrated companies, as well as exploration and production companies. The company was formerly known as Gibson Energy Holdings ULC and changed its name to Gibson Energy Inc. in April 2011. 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There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Gibson Energy Third Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Beth Pollock, Vice President, Capital Markets and Risk. Ms. Pollock, please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:21Thank you, Therese. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q3 2024 operational and financial results. Joining me on the call this morning from Gibson Energy are Curtis Fillipon, President and Chief Executive Officer and Sean Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have additional senior management team members in the room to help with questions and answers as required. Listeners are reminded that today's call refers to non GAAP measures, forward looking information and is subject to certain assumptions and adjustments and may not be indicative of actual results. Speaker 100:00:59Descriptions and qualifications of such measures and information are set out in our investor presentation available on our website and our continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR Plus. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Curtis. Speaker 200:01:15Thank you, Beth. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be here today for my 1st quarterly call with Gibson Energy. Before we get into our Q3 results, I'd like to take a moment to introduce myself. Prior to joining Gibson, I've been in the North American energy sector for over 20 years, The most recent decade of which was spent as the President and CEO of a low carbon energy distribution business. Speaker 200:01:41During my time there, we were successful in developing solutions to bridge gaps and infrastructure and in doing so profitably grew the business in both Canada and the U. S. And generated substantial shareholder value. We're looking forward to doing the same at Gibson. Since joining the company, I've had the opportunity to visit our operations in Edmonton, Hardisty, Moose Jaw, Wink and Ingleside. Speaker 200:02:07And what struck me is the quality and experience of our team who take pride in operating our assets safely and efficiently as well as our strong customer relationships. It is impressive seeing Gibson's critical energy infrastructure for firsthand. Our operations span from touching 1 in 4 barrels produced in Western Canada to exporting Permian and Eagle Ford barrels through the 2nd largest crude export terminal in the U. S. These irreplaceable assets provide a tremendous platform for growth. Speaker 200:02:41Our focus is on strengthening our high performance team culture and running our business well. Over the next year, our strategic priorities are delivering on the potential in Gateway and realizing the growth opportunities that surround our asset base. Now turning to our Q3 results, I'm pleased to report that we've had another strong quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $151,000,000 driven by near record contribution from our infrastructure segment of $150,000,000 From a commercial perspective, construction of the 2 new tanks at our Edmonton terminal has progressed according to schedule and we expect to place them into service by the end of the year. These tanks will add value for Cenovus by providing 870,000 barrels of storage capacity and a high degree of connectivity including into TMX. During the quarter, we also started work on the Cactus II connection at our Gateway terminal, which will provide our customers with access to approximately 700,000 barrels a day of incremental Permian supply. Speaker 200:03:48We expect the connection to be in service in Q3 2025. As mentioned on our last call, we announced the Cactus II connection along with the extension of a long term contract at our Gateway Terminal on July 15, which is backed by a high quality investment grade counterparty. With respect to Gateway operations, we continue to see growing demand for our services at the terminal and contracting discussions with customers are moving forward. Our confidence in extending a second contract is unchanged and we still expect to continue achieving our previously communicated commercial objectives regarding tender and rate. So in summary, my Q1 at Gibson has been a pleasure. Speaker 200:04:31The team has delivered a solid quarter and I'm excited about the potential going forward. I'll now pass the call over to Sean, who will walk through our financial results in more detail. Speaker 300:04:41Thanks, Curtis. To focus on our financial results, we delivered another solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $151,000,000 slightly higher than the Q3 of 2023 due to an additional month of Gateway EBITDA contribution, partially offset by lower marketing earnings. In our Infrastructure segment, we reported $150,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the 3rd quarter, dollars 10,000,000 higher than in the Q3 of last year due to a full quarter of contribution from Gateway as well as continued strong performance from the rest of our infrastructure assets. This is relatively in line with Q2 2024 where we reported record Infrastructure segment EBITDA. Turning to the Marketing segment. Speaker 300:05:29Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $14,000,000 was below the guidance provided on our Q2 call and represented a $10,000,000 decrease relative to Q3 2023 and a $6,000,000 decrease relative to the Q2 of this year. While crude marketing results were in line or slightly ahead of expectations entering the quarter, refined products results were softer than expected due primarily to weakness in the drilling fluid market. Variance to the comparable period last year was also largely driven by refined products with notably weaker demand for light sour product at Moose Jaw, though we did also see fewer crude trading opportunities. With respect to our forward outlook, based on market conditions, we anticipate modest marketing segment performance in the Q4. The crude marketing segment is expected to be impacted by low Western Canadian storage levels, which will likely moderate any time based opportunities and contribute to lower volatility. Speaker 300:06:32The refined products segment is also expected to perform modestly due to soft drilling fluid demand combined with tight heavy differentials. We are also heading into the winter asphalt season where the focus is typically on building storage inventories. On an annual basis, under this outlook, marketing is expected to end the year at or below our run rate guidance of $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 Though I would note, we are prepared to take advantage of incremental opportunities should they arise. That being said, with the benefit of our Gateway acquisition, marketing now represents a smaller proportion of our business at 10% to 15% on a trailing 12 month basis. We've also operated at these levels on many occasions historically and are well positioned from a balance sheet perspective given our continued commitment to our key governing financial principles as we move forward. Speaker 300:07:27To complete the discussion of results for this quarter, I'll briefly walk through a couple of items impacting distributable cash flow. The Q3 2024 distributable cash flow result of approximately $88,000,000 with a $5,000,000 decrease from the Q3 of 2023 and a $13,000,000 decrease relative to the Q2 of this year. The year over year delta was driven by current income tax returning to normalized levels after benefiting from one time tax deductions related to the Gateway acquisition in the Q3 of last year. The quarter over quarter delta was driven by lower marketing results, higher replacement capital expenditures and current income tax. We also maintained our commitment to our financial governing principles with leverage of 3.2 times, within our target range of 3 times to 3.5 times. Speaker 300:08:20I would note that given the current market structure, marketing inventories are below what we typically hold, so our current revolver balance is somewhat artificially low resulting in a lower leverage metric. Our payout ratio of 65% remains below our 70% to 80% target range, highlighting the sustainability of our dividend. On an infrastructure only basis, our payout ratio is approximately 71%, well below our target of 100% and leverage of 3.4 times is also below our target of 4 times. With ample headroom with respect to both ratios, we have significant financial flexibility notwithstanding any softness in our marketing business. In terms of capital allocation, we continue to be committed to be disciplined and focused on maximizing shareholder value. Speaker 300:09:14Given our current outlook for full year capital expenditures, marketing performance and our unwavering commitment to our key governing financial principles, we do not foresee buybacks during the Q4 in the absence of business outperformance. However, share repurchases remain a critical part of our capital allocation strategy and we will provide an update on our outlook when we announce our 2025 capital guidance in early December. Overall, we have a strong and conservative financial profile. Our leverage is low both on a total and infrastructure adjusted basis. Our quality of cash flows continues to increase with the relative growth in our infrastructure business and we have significant liquidity and a staggered debt maturity profile. Speaker 300:10:02As we move forward, this financial profile will continue to offer us considerable financial flexibility. In summary, Gibson delivered solid results in the Q3 of the year, with infrastructure results remaining stable and financial metrics within or better than our target ranges. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open it up for questions. Operator00:10:25Thank Our first question today comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities. Your line is open. Speaker 400:10:55Good morning, everyone. This is Eli Johnson on for Jeremy. Just wanted to start on the marketing performance the team touched on in the opening remarks. So recognize there's been some headwinds driving performance to the lower end of the guide. But can you maybe speak to the longer term expectations for the segment? Speaker 400:11:14Are there positive tailwinds in the future? Or should we think about these levels on more of a run rate basis? Speaker 300:11:22Hey, good morning Eli. Speaker 200:11:25When I look at the marketing business, you have to recognize that the marketing business will have some lumpiness to it. But if you look over the long term, we're still comfortable with our long term guidance of the 80 to 120 is a reasonable way to look at it. The marketing business that continue to be a good part of the Gibson portfolio. When you look forward, we got these great assets that allow you to generate strong marketing business and in times of volatility generate even more lumpy positive earnings. Speaker 400:11:59Sure. Thanks. And then maybe just on Gateway, I know the re contracting announcement didn't come this quarter and recognize that those discussions are ongoing. But maybe just thinking about the organic growth outlook for the asset itself, can you remind us kind of what the expectations are for upside opportunities at the asset and how you guys are progressing against those? Speaker 200:12:31So I think believe our guidance in the past has been an upside opportunity of 15% to 20% upside as we think about both capital and non capital improvements on that. And I would say I'm in the seat now sort of 60 days in the seat and quite pleasantly surprised to Speaker 500:12:47see that Speaker 200:12:48those are underway and very actionable and we're feeling good about that 15% to 20% uptick available to the business. Speaker 400:12:58Great. Thanks. I'll leave it Operator00:13:02there. Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Speaker 600:13:17Good morning, everyone. Chris, so you did mention you've been on the seat belt for roughly around 60 days. What do you think the most impactful changes that you've made over the 1st 60 days have been in the organization? And then as you look out for the next 60 days, what are the key changes you want to see there as well? Speaker 200:13:37Good morning, Rob. For me in the 1st 60 days, it's been a lot of getting out and meeting our teams and spending time out in our assets, seeing the assets and getting to know the business in a deeper way. And so I would say early on, it's a lot of getting to know that the business and the people involved with it. First step for me coming into the organization is really looking hard at the people and making sure that we've got the people, the right people on the bus going in the right direction. And so one of the first things that we did here over the near term actually started even before I joined is a bit of a pullback to the office. Speaker 200:14:19And so we actually said, hey, we need people back in the office in a bigger way and that was something that was started before I came. But you can see the impact of that, I think, over the last 60 days that you've got a greater presence of people back in the office working on a more regular basis in the office versus a remote. And it's a small thing, but I believe it drives a culture shift that our operations are out in the field every single day, sort of our Calgary and Houston offices also coming back in the office and being there in a bigger way as a cultural impact as well and I think increases our effectiveness. So that's step 1. And as we move into step 2, we're looking hard to make sure we've got the right people in the seats in the organization and setting ourselves up for success and that's going quite well. Speaker 200:15:06And as I go through the operations and look at the opportunities going forward, we spent a lot of time talking about growth. And how do you find interesting growth opportunities around the assets. And for me 60 days coming in, I've been very impressed with both the quality of the assets that we have in the operations and the people we've got in our operations. But also I would say positively impressed with the really interesting growth opportunities that we've got around our current asset base and the opportunity is for levers for growth around that. And so I think over the next 60 days internally, we'll spend a lot of time just continuing to develop and evaluate those things as we look into next year and what we're going to do from a growth perspective in 2025. Speaker 300:15:55Thanks for that. And then maybe turning over Speaker 600:15:57to capital allocation priorities or strategies. Sean, you did mention that on an infra only basis, the payout ratio as well as leverage are below your targets. So when you think about pause or not pushing on the buyback into Q4, is that a function of just keeping some powder dry as you're seeing some good growth opportunities into 2025, keeping your powder dry for M and A? Or is it really a function of just better understanding what the strategy will be longer term here? Speaker 300:16:32Thanks, Rob. I think what that really is, I touched upon it in the prepared remarks, but if you looked at it, our leverage is 3.2 times. It's certainly at the low end of the range and something that you may think would be a predicator of reinitiating buybacks in the Q4. What I did touch upon though is that our inventories right now are really quite, quite low, just given the current market structure. If you normalize that to a what would be a more normal inventory level for us, the leverage actually goes up sort of the mid ish or higher end of that range. Speaker 300:17:05And just given our absolute laser focus on our key governing financial principles, it's just what we felt appropriate. So the leverage at appearance would seem to be at the low end. We'd look at it in a more normalized basis more at the mid to higher end if you normalize for those inventory levels and it's really reflective of that, just an absolute unwavering commitment to those key governing financial principles. But I do want to reiterate that our commitment to our capital allocation priorities does not change. Curtis touched upon it. Speaker 300:17:38Focus will and always be on growth opportunities. But to the extent that we have excess cash flow, we still remain committed to the buyback on a longer term basis. Speaker 700:17:52Thank you. Operator00:17:56Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from Morris Choi with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Speaker 800:18:07Thank you and good morning everyone. Maybe I could start with you Curtis. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that you developed solutions to bridge gaps in infrastructure and you plan to do the same in Gibson Energy. And you also hope to realize the growth potential surrounding the company's asset base. Could you elaborate more on any gaps you may be seeing today and elaborate on this organic growth potential you speak of at the company? Speaker 200:18:37Yes. Good morning, Morris. When I look at our asset base, like we have this unbelievable base of assets in Western Canada and down into the U. S. And around those assets, what I've seen 60 days in is some really interesting opportunities to increase throughput through our assets, look for opportunities to increase profitability within the assets, grow the customer base. Speaker 200:19:04And I think increasingly is there ways to sort of increase that competitive mode around the assets. And so there's a number of things that go beyond just building there are opportunities with TMX to build more tanks as well. But I think it goes beyond just building more tanks that there's really interesting ways for us to increase the throughput to our facilities. The obvious one that we've talked about in the past is the dredging projects that we're going through, the deepening project for our Ingleside facility where we're spending a lot of time right now going through the engineering of that to be able to increase the throughput capacity of that facility. That's a great example of the type of project that allows us to really increase the throughput, increase the profitability, make it more attractive for a wider base of customers. Speaker 200:19:52And there's other ones like that, that I find are quite attractive. Speaker 800:19:58So as you think about all these gateway opportunities, including the dredging program and tie that back to the second contract extension that you're still negotiating. How does that all work together in terms of timing? Would you consider offering potential for that with the second customer before signing an extension or is it all separate? Speaker 200:20:24It's definitely part of our conversation in our contract negotiations is what are some of the capabilities of the facility. And so the deepening is a consideration in that contract extension. And so that's something that we're working through over the coming months. But it's a compelling project for us regardless, Morris. We see a lot of benefit in increase in that capacity. Speaker 200:20:49So internally, we're spending a lot of time running full speed to make sure we've got all the engineering ready and planning that we're able to do that deepening work in the front half of next year. Speaker 800:21:03Understood. And then if I could finish off with a question on marketing here. I think, Sean, you mentioned that the 2024 marketing may potentially be at or below the long term guidance of $80,000,000 to 120,000,000 Do you anticipate the market conditions to materially change as you head into the new year? Or are there things that you're seeing that could improve your outlook? Speaker 300:21:28Yes, I think over the course of the year, I mean there's many things. I mean there's a lot of different factors that go into marketing. I think right now, as I talked about in Speaker 700:21:35the prepared remarks, Speaker 300:21:37our crude marketing business actually performed as we expected going into the Q3. So, real credit to the team in that and what is not a perfect environment necessarily for that business. I mean on the refined products side, we are going as I talked about it as well in the prepared remarks, we are going into the asphalt build season right now. So I mean Q4 seasonally would always be a bit weaker for that business. And as we move into next year, we certainly do hope for it to improve. Speaker 300:22:06And if we look at the totality of the year as well, there's a lot that can happen throughout the year. So we are right now sort of in the midst of budgeting, but I mean our visibility as Curtis touched upon earlier would be sort of in around a similar environment as we move into next year, as we look at it today, but resulting in something that would probably be within that $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 But again, a lot of things can change throughout the year, but that's the visibility we have right now. Speaker 800:22:41Understood. Thank you very much. Operator00:22:46Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question does come from Patrick Kenny with NBF. Your line is open. Speaker 900:23:00Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just with the record throughput at the Edmonton terminal, could you just provide an update on customer demand or potential timing for sanctioning additional tankage capacity to fully build out the site? Speaker 300:23:19Yes. Thanks, Pat. It's Sean here. I'll take that. I mean, obviously with TMX up and running, that would be so the driver of the record activity that we saw at the facility, I think we would agree with sort of industry in general that TMX seems to have gone very well thus far through operation. Speaker 300:23:40We as we look at our terminal, we continue to see a very compelling service offering as it relates to new takeage demand there. We have a tank that we put into service Q3 last year. We have another 2 tanks that we're going to put into service late this year as Chris touched upon in his prepared remarks. And again, I'd remind people under a 15 year contract with Nova is a great partner that we have. So as we look, we have room for at least another 2 tanks there. Speaker 300:24:11Over the long term, we certainly see the demand for that tankage surfacing. We had said that people wanted to see really TMX in operation before making that decision, really no change from a timing perspective there. We continue to think that the service offering that we provided at Edmonton is very compelling. We think over time those tanks will get built and our commercial team is as they always have been in active discussions with potential counterparties and around that. Speaker 900:24:42Got it. Thanks for that. And then maybe for Curtis, I know it's still early days here, but any comments on how you're thinking about the energy transition strategy for the company? And if you're focusing more on smaller opportunities across the existing asset base or perhaps considering moving into other verticals outside of crude oil infrastructure such as NGL infrastructure or even natural gas? Speaker 200:25:12Yes. As we think about energy transition specifically, we do look at energy transition projects and that's part of our strategies we're looking forward. But I would say our focus from a growth perspective is a disciplined growth. And regardless of the nature of the project, all projects are competing for capital and have to still fit into the same infrastructure fundamentals that we look for. And so there's no sort of different lens for the energy transition projects. Speaker 200:25:40We need to make sure that they still meet all those same compelling returns and infrastructure fundamentals. So that's the key thing for us as we look at that. Now I think as we look forward over the next few years, there will be things for us to do in that, that line up really well in our core competencies that do meet those thresholds and we'll keep working at that to eventually add that leg to the business in a bigger way. When I look at growth for Gibson, and we'll talk more about this over time, but when I look at it right now, I see a lot of really interesting growth opportunities right around our current asset base. But we wouldn't be doing our job if we weren't out there also thinking about what is the next platform for growth for Gibson. Speaker 200:26:23And just like we did with Gateway and we added that next platform that offered a lot of other organic growth around that asset. We'll keep looking at those things. An energy transition will be part of that. There's things to look at for the next platform of growth. But I got to say, we do have a lot of compelling things right around the core asset base as well. Speaker 200:26:40So there's a sort of a constant competition for growth. And when I look forward for growth in the next year, what we're pushing the team is to sort of increase that funnel of opportunities coming at us. So we really have a strong competition for the best opportunities coming forward. And ideally, we're I think we've messaged the range of $150,000,000 or so of growth capital. And I'm not pushed to say, how do we get closer to the $200,000,000 level? Speaker 200:27:06And What are those real interesting opportunities we can bring forward that both surround our current asset base, but also look longer term at adding that next growth leg. Speaker 900:27:18Okay, that's great. I appreciate the color. Thank you. Operator00:27:23Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Speaker 500:27:36Hi, good morning, everyone. I want to just continue on with the marketing conversation for a minute here. Obviously, we have a little bit of visibility into crack spreads even if Gibson's unique product slate is a little bit different. But what's changed, I think, is the crude oil marketing opportunities. The last two quarters, it seems like there's been fewer opportunities than you've been accustomed to. Speaker 500:28:04And of course, that coincides with the onset of TMX coming into service. So my question for you is, what gives you confidence that you can maintain the existing range, understanding that there's lumpiness as you suggested. But what gives you confidence that the fundamentals haven't changed over the long term to put that $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 in jeopardy? Or said another way, what do you think has to change in the market to give you more visibility to the $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 range? Speaker 300:28:39Thanks, Rob. I mean, we talked about in the prepared remarks. I mean, really, if we thought about the weakness that we saw this quarter, it was really almost entirely on the refined product side. So appreciate the commentary. But as I said, I think in an answer to previous question, I mean, our crude marketing business has done a fantastic job in generating margin even in this environment. Speaker 300:29:03So, that is partially where we get confidence. It is performing really as we expected entering the year and continues to perform as we expected. We've got visibility into where refined products is. You're absolutely right as you speak to the crack spreads. But as I said, we are right now sort of knee deep in our budgeting process, but and that's a very comprehensive effort that we put in here. Speaker 300:29:28And the results of that are where that budgeting process looks to be coming out is where actually we get some of that confidence and being able to say, we still think that that $80,000,000 to $120,000,000 is a valid number, notwithstanding some of the structural shifts we've seen in the market. Speaker 500:29:47Okay. Thanks for that. And I just wanted to touch on the waste to energy opportunity. I read the updates. Obviously, there's really no update yet. Speaker 500:29:58You're still working on developing that opportunity. But I wondered if you could give any updates as to your confidence levels or where you think the CapEx might end up for Gibson on that project if it were to in fact move forward? Speaker 200:30:15Hi, Rob. From the waste energy, as we've mentioned in the past, really we talked about this project because we had some partners involved and so that one's out in the open a bit more. But the way I think about that project, it's one of several that we're looking at in the background that has an interesting potential growth leg. The assessment in the background is going as expected. We're going through both the technical and commercial review of that. Speaker 200:30:42For us to get comfortable and actually going forward with that, it would have to demonstrate with a high degree of confidence that we've got a very strong compelling return, still lines up with all those infrastructure fundamentals, still provides a nice platform for growth to be worth the distraction and time that we'd put in that to go forward. And so I'd say we're going through that review right now, but I wouldn't put that project ahead of some other ones that we're putting we've got we're working in the background either. And so I think more updates to come on that. We'll obviously update once we get through the review, but no new update for this quarter. Speaker 500:31:20Okay. Thanks for the perspective. Speaker 300:31:24Thanks, Rob. Operator00:31:28Our next call comes from Ben Pham with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 700:31:35Hi, thanks. Good morning. Could you comment on the additional projects that you're looking on in the background that's ahead of the waste energy facility? Speaker 200:31:54Probably for competitive reasons, we probably won't come out and give full disclosure on all those projects. But there are there's interesting things to do. Even if I was to give a little bit more visibility, one of the interesting options as you look at our gateway facility is that we are getting a lot of demand from customers for things like increasing ability to handle more Eagle Ford barrels. And what are some of the implications of bringing more Eagle Ford barrels and customers through that facility is something we're seeing a lot of customer interest in and is there interesting capital projects to do around that is one thing that we're evaluating. But there's a number of things like that, that we're thinking about both on the Canadian assets and the U. Speaker 200:32:37S. Assets. Speaker 700:32:40Okay, got it. And maybe going back to the share buyback commentary, you think about through year end, is there any conditions or what factors would drive perhaps you revisiting a share buyback opportunity? Speaker 300:33:01In Q4, you mean, Ben? Speaker 700:33:03That's right. I think then beginning of the year, last December, you mentioned maybe share buybacks by year end. I think we have thought process and now it sounds like it's just tweaked a bit here. Speaker 300:33:15Yes. No, I think if you recall, our previous messaging had been, we revisit near the towards the tail end of the year. Factors that would have influenced share buybacks positively would have been a lower growth capital than guide. And at the time, we had a guide of $125,000,000 to $150,000,000 And then the second one would have been marketing outperformance. If you look at take both of those factors, growth capital looks like it's coming in right and around that $150,000,000 number. Speaker 300:33:45And if anything, marketing has somewhat underperformed based as you would have seen given the guide we had going into the quarter and the financial results. So based on those two factors alone, it would point to not having buybacks in the quarter. So what could change it going forward? I mean, the capital is fairly locked in. So I don't see that changing. Speaker 300:34:06If we saw tremendous volatility in the market and our marketing business was able to take advantage of that, Potentially that could be a factor, but what we would also take into consideration is what's our growth capital outlook as we look into next year. And Curtis spoke to it already, extremely excited to already sanction the Cactus connection, working very hard on a potential deepening of the dock at Gateway. So we do think we've got a number of exciting growth capital opportunities there. But in a direct answer to your question, what could change it, it would be massive outperformance due to market volatility that we see in the Q4, which certainly we're prepared to take advantage of if it happens, but I wouldn't say is our expectation. Speaker 700:34:53Okay, perfect. And maybe just one last one, your inventory comment too. I mean, it looks like there's been some pretty big swings in that. I think Q2, you look like you had more leverage than expected or may not expect, but more than the normalized and now it's below. Has there been a change in how you're managing net working capital or inventory versus the past? Speaker 700:35:19No. And no, it's just so you use that's just Q3 before you build up. Speaker 300:35:25No, purely market Yes, purely market structure, Ben. Actually, even the Q2 one was somewhat artificially high. It was more timing of actual inventory sales. So what showed up in our revolver was a bit higher than the actuality. But at a high level, we started the year with a tremendous amount of inventory just given the market structure and we have sold that inventory given current market structure. Speaker 300:35:52So no real change from past practice at all. It's just the net result of the structure throughout the year. Speaker 700:36:02Okay. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much. Speaker 300:36:06Thanks, Ben. Operator00:36:08Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Linton with Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 600:36:18Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple of housekeeping items for me, I guess. On the infrastructure side of the business, it just looks like volumes ticked down a little bit quarter over quarter. Just wondering what the key drivers behind that were and how we should think about it moving forward? Speaker 300:36:37Yes. Thanks for that, Anthony. It's Sean here. Yes, nothing really no read through there. I mean, if you go through sort of our core infrastructure assets, we talked about Edmonton with TMX, sort of peak volumes there. Speaker 300:36:51Our gateway volumes continue to be extremely strong, so no change there. The variance this quarter was really in around Hardisty and that is really just a factor of some of the upstream activity at our customer facility. So nothing systematic there. You would see if you looked over the course of any year depending on the activities of some of our customers, you would see a similar variance. So nothing specific there really. Speaker 600:37:19Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just another question on the normalized inventory level and you touched on it in the previous response, but where do you sort of think normalized inventory level shakes out given some of the volatility year to date? And will we see most of that in Q4? Speaker 600:37:36Or is that going to happen over the course of 2025? Speaker 300:37:41Yes, I'll take that one again. I mean, I think the current view is right now is that inventory levels will remain relatively low through Q4. To the extent that the market structure changes somewhat, I think you would see some of that build through 2025. But we need it really depends on market structure at any time. Speaker 600:38:03Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Speaker 300:38:06You bet. Operator00:38:09Thank you. There are no further questions. So I would like to now hand the call back to Beth. Speaker 100:38:19Thank you, Therese, and thank you for joining us for our 2024 Q3 conference call. Again, I would like to note that we've made available certain supplementary information on our website, gibsonenergy.com. If you have any further questions, please reach out to investor. Relationsgibsonenergy.com. Operator00:38:39Thank you.Read morePowered by