Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 21, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

To ask a question during Q and A, please use the raise hand button if you have joined via Zoom or dial star 1 if you are joining over the phone. I would now like to turn the call over to David Ferguson at CASB to begin. David, please go ahead when you're ready.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Harry. Good afternoon. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q3 9 month 2024 financial results.

Speaker 1

We'll also talk about our decision to acquire a controlling stake of Hepci Verada. On the call, as usual, is our CEO and cofounder, Michal Lomtazza our CFO and Deputy CEO, Tengiz Masidis and Deputy CEO, Yuriy Dudenko. I'm David Ferguson. We'll talk you through the presentation, Michal through the strategic updates, Michal through the financials, then Michal will talk again about the hep C Barada transaction. So on that note, I'll hand over to Mikael.

Speaker 1

Mikael, over to you.

Speaker 2

Hello, everyone. So as usual, we'd like to start with an update for our 3Q and 9 month performance. So as you can see, we have performed strongly in the 3rd Q. The payments just continues growing nicely with the TPV 28% up and revenue 25% and net income 25% up year over year. The marketplace continues growing very strongly.

Speaker 2

If you remember, we have been emphasizing during the year that the change in the marketing campaigns, which is driven really by this broad arrangement, broad number of the services which need to feed the seasonality and things like that in our super app. So the marketing promotion have changed during the year. So the 3rd Q will be a slower growth just because more marketing campaigns were in the 2nd Q compared to last year. But still a very strong growth. The revenue 43% up, 14% net income up, GMV 24%.

Speaker 2

And Fintech, if you remember, we also actually emphasized during previous calls that Fintech will be catching up nicely in the second half of the year. So this is what you actually see the Fintech TFE growth 18% revenue 24% and net income now plus 15% year over year compared to 7% for the 9 months. So that just tells you that second half for Fintech is a will be a strong will be a strong half of this of the year. And then consolidated performance have been strong net income 18% up and 28% up revenue and we'll continue to have extraordinary monthly transactions per active consumer which drives our business. In general, I would like to say that Q4 usually like in any other retail and services oriented businesses and platforms is the strongest quarter of the year.

Speaker 2

Next slide, David, please. Because we have been having sort of distorted a bit the growth of the marketplace due to the change in the marketing campaigns. So it's better really to look at the 9 months. And we are on a track to deliver 25 percent around 25 percent net income growth year over year. And you can see the performance is very strong and the marketplace is the one which is driving our performance.

Speaker 2

And Fintech, as you can see, this is what I've mentioned that for 9 months is 7% net income growth, but actually for the 3rd Q is a 15%, which is again driven by reduction of the interest rate, but also the growth of the business itself. So we are having a very diversified profit profits and diversified businesses really which connect merchants and the consumers. So as you can see here 68% now is delivered from the payments in the marketplace, which is again, those are the fastest growing services in the universe of our services in the super app. So really excited to see that we have a very diversified profit sources and diversified businesses. E grocery, we continue to grow.

Speaker 2

So it's continues a very strong performance. Just to remind, we're in the 3 cities and here, you know, we would say that's our focus. You know, as we have said during the year because this those three cities really are the largest in terms of the population and largest in terms of retail trade. So GMV is 88% up year over year, 2,400,000 purchases in the 3rd Q. So active consumers now in excess of 700,000 and average ticket is around 14,000.

Speaker 2

So it's really a very exciting business. And again, as you always see, we are focused on the execution, which is the key. And our priority for this year is actually to continue scaling in those 3 cities. And it's incredible to be in the position when you actually have a service, which is we believe is very high quality. Consumers like it.

Speaker 2

And actually, we are satisfying consumer demand, which is a good place to be and that's what will be our focus on is scaling the efficiencies and dark stores in those 3 cities and then the more cities come next year. Vacation packages, another testament of our pace of innovation. So if you remember, we launched that service sort of last year and now we have been generating nice growth. So it's over 300% growth year over year. It's a very good tech rate, good quality service.

Speaker 2

We have a very good feedback from our consumers, from operating companies whom we connect with our consumers as we organize the user experience on the vacation packages. And we have served around 26,000 tourists in the 3rd queue, also growth of 284%. So it's really just another service which we have launched and we're very excited the way it's growth, but most importantly, we're inspired by the feedback that consumers give us. Another service we just launched, which is really cool service is a gift certificates. It's actually fully online experience when you can select design for the location.

Speaker 2

You can you can actually select the amount to gift. You can write a personal message and the photo you have here the this confetti is actually you know it's it's like in it's basically a video of how when you're opening the envelope, which is really nice, cool and emotional. And you can also manage your gift cards from our mobile app. And you can spend the you can spend the gift card once somebody gives you a present. You can spend it on the Kaspi shop.

Speaker 2

We're excited about this because it's another sort of layer of the shopping experience, which we organize for our consumers. And we are having a very positive feedback and we're following our consumers. And that's a good start of the range of the innovations which we believe we can develop around shopping, around gift cards. This is the first stage for us when the gift cards originated as a Caspi gift cards. So it's really excited and will drive engagement, but also it will drive marketplace transactions.

Speaker 2

So very exciting product which consumers hopefully will love. We also launched another product which is business developed the deposit for merchants. So again, you know, we have been really focused on the quality of the of the product and the merchant experience. We launched it in August and actually from day 1 we launched it. It had remarkable onboarding and engagement from the merchants.

Speaker 2

So we're basically just like 2 months. We've got 69,000 merchants starting using the sorry, the 41,000 merchants using the product already. And it's a T69 billion deposit. So this is exciting product because that actually gives the value to the merchants. It fits their purpose of they are not cash rich, but the product is designed that, you know, you can actually see your interest rate like daily.

Speaker 2

Basically, how it's how the money value is increasing. And we believe that will drive the engagement with the merchants. And our strategy historically has been always, you know, if consumers or merchants design the services and the products which they use to keep their money with you, then the spending of this money naturally flows from those from this behavior. So we're really excited about this product. And take up from the merchants is extremely impressive.

Speaker 2

41,000 merchants in just a couple of months and around 60 9,000,000,000 of deposits and also obviously another source of the funding long term, but we're very excited about this product as well. So David, I'm back to you for the sections about platform performances, please.

Speaker 1

Yes. Sounds good. Thank you, Mikael. So I'll talk you through the respective platform performance, starting as always with payments platform. So you can see here that in the Q3, still very robust trends in terms of transaction volumes from payments, up 38% year on year in the Q3, up 42% year on year for the 9 months.

Speaker 1

Of the 3 platforms, payments is the one that is less impacted by the timing of the different marketing events, primarily Juma. Strong transaction volumes have translated into strong TPV growth, up 28% year on year in the 3rd quarter, up 32% year on year for the the 9 months. As has been a trend, we've consistently highlighted that the growth is is core products, Kaspersky Pay QR, and, Kaspersky Pay B2B payments. B2B remains the fastest growing component of TPV and is now up to 5%. Take rate is broadly stable in the Q3, 1.2% versus 1.18% in the Q3 sorry, 1.18% in the Q3 of 'twenty four versus 1.2% in the same period in 2023.

Speaker 1

So stable, albeit that Kaspi Pay and B2B are a slight drag at the margin on take rates. So the combination of strong volume trends, strong TPV trends with broadly stable tape rate translates into decent revenue growth, up 25% year on year in the Q3, a similar performance for the 9 months, up 24%. As interest rates fall, that does mean lower revenue interest revenue on current account balances, and that's most relevant here. When you're looking at the 9 month trend, but with tight cost control, strong top line is dropping through to the bottom line with almost identical bottom line growth of 25% 24%, respectively, for the Q3 9 months at the net income level. Looking forward for payments, robust consumer and merchant trends are expected to continue, broadly stable take rate.

Speaker 1

And given tight cost control, payments remains on track for bottom line growth of 25%, which is consistent with guidance throughout the the year. Moving on to marketplace platform, which is the fastest growing part of the business. Again, strong purchase trends, up 45% year on year in the Q3, up 39% for the 9 months. Marketplace is the most impacted by Juma taking place in June versus July. Stronger purchase growth, however, in the Q3, stronger versus the 9 month trend just reflects the growing importance of particularly grocery, which is high volume, low ticket size.

Speaker 1

Looking at GMV growth, strong volume trends translate into decent GMV trends, up 24% in the Q3. So that is lower than the 9 month run rate of plus 46%. But as Michal said, that is something we flagged very clearly at the H1 results in June. It reflects the timing of marketing campaigns, and you should expect to see GMV growth accelerate in the Q4. All attention now or all efforts now are on making Tuma in November as successful as possible.

Speaker 1

Take rate up year on year in both the Q3 and the 9 months, and that reflects in part the success of value added services, again, something marketplace, having just overtaken slightly m commerce in the GMV, mix. Turning specifically to e commerce. Here, you see strong purchase trends, up 132% in the Q3. All the different components of ecommerce, general goods, ecars, and egrocery playing their part. But if you're looking at it at a purchase level, grocery is is is skewing the the the volume mix.

Speaker 1

GMV, still very robust, up 71% in the Q3, up 95% year on year for the the the 9 month period. So ecommerce as a whole delivering very, very strong growth in the business, take rates moving up marginally in the Q3 more materially for the 9 months. And again, that reflects the or largely reflects the growing importance of advertising and delivery revenue. Moving on to M Commerce. So M Commerce is the part of Marketplace that is most impacted by the timing of the Juma promotional event.

Speaker 1

That's probably less obvious at the purchase level, up 12% for the Q3, up 10% for the 9 months, but it is obvious at the sort of the ticket size level with GMV down 5% in the Q3, but still up 18% in the Q4. With Tuma back in the Q4, it's reasonable to expect a good end to the year from the m commerce proposition. Again, take rates in m commerce up marginally in Q3 more materially for the 9 month period. And then moving on to travel. Travel just continues to deliver very, very good numbers, as Macau flagged.

Speaker 1

In particular, package holidays, we launched just over a year ago. They are now becoming more material in the mix at just under 10% of travel's GMV, growing very, very fast, up over 300% in the Q3 and with a take rate of around 8% overall, not just growth enhancing for travel, but take rate enhancing for travel. And you see that in take rate expansion overall up to 4.5% in the Q3 and also up 30 bps to 4.5 percent for the 9 month period. So travel continuing 3 years post launch to continue to post very, very healthy growth numbers. With GMV trends still strong, but take rate up, that translates into very fast marketplace revenue growth ahead of GMV growth, up 43% for the Q3, up 76% for the 9 months.

Speaker 1

Slower growth in net income does reflect the changing mix, namely 1P, the growing contribution from 1p, which is primarily eegrocery and to some extent, e cars. But overall, for marketplace, trends remain robust. We expect 65% revenue growth for the full year. That is down from 70% originally guided for, and that just simply reflects that 3 p car sales are growing at a materially faster rate than 1P car sales. And given that the growth is coming from 3P, there's really sort of no impact there on the profitability guidance, which remains plus 40% for Marketplace.

Speaker 1

Expect Marketplace to see accelerating revenue growth and accelerating bottom line growth relative to the Q3. In the final quarter of the year, a strong finish is planned. Then on Fintech, Fintech is to some extent affected by marketing and tumor. You see that in the context of lower origination or lower origination growth, up 18% versus the 9 month trend of up 34%. And so here too, expect to see an accelerating growth in the Q4 of the year.

Speaker 1

The consumer, and for that matter, the merchant environment remains stable and predictable, and that's evidenced by repayment trends or conversion rate stable year on year at 2.1 times. It just illustrates the consumer and merchant is borrowing and repaying normally without any sort of material change. Buy now, pay later, the biggest component of TFV still, but merchant and microfinancing growing very fast and now car financing growing very, very fast also. Since the, Q2, there's been a change in the trend, I. E.

Speaker 1

Loan portfolio growing faster than the deposit portfolio. You see that very clearly in both the Q3 and the 9 months. Loan portfolio for the Q3 up 39% year on year. Deposits or savings up 25% year on year. And this is consistent with what we talked about in previous years.

Speaker 1

There's been a big focus on growing the deposit base. That's not necessarily over, and deposit base growth of 25% and 28% is still very strong. But you can see that the liquidity is being better utilized as evidenced by the loan to deposit ratio moving up to 8%. The yield on the lending the gross yield of the pricing on the lending products is stable year on year in the Q3 and largely so for the 9 month period as well. Credit trends remain consistent and predictable, and that again just fits with the backdrop that I described consistently across all three of the platforms of a still healthy and consumer and merchant environment, specifically to fintech that manifests itself in both the origination, but also very strong collection trends.

Speaker 1

The results of that is stable. Our cost of risk year on year in the Q3, naught 0.5%, and that again is actually consistent with what you've seen over the 9 month period, run rating around 2% for the full year. NPL trends also stable year to date. Lower coverage reflects growth in the car loan product. That is a collateralized product and requires, therefore, less provisioning.

Speaker 1

It also reflects just ongoing strong collection of NPLs that are on balance sheet. And as a result, more NPLs are being kept on balance sheet versus being written off. More NPLs on balance sheet means lower provisioning again required. Expect this number to be the 91% number to be broadly stable to slightly higher for the 12 month period. So, fintech revenue growth on the back of origination TFB growth over the last 12 months remains robust, up 24% for both periods, Q3 9 months.

Speaker 1

What is clearly different in, FinTech is that in the Q3, really the first time, you started to see bottom line growth accelerate up 15% for the Q3 versus up 7% for the 9 month period. So that reflects funding costs are coming down. We lowered our deposit rate at the end of February. We talked about taking a full 12 months for that benefit to work its way through the the p and l. Combined with the increase in the loans deposit ratio, you see fintech profitability step up in the Q3, and it would be a reasonable assumption and implied by the guidance to see FinTech profitability step up again in the Q4 and into 2025.

Speaker 1

So for FinTech overall, we continue to expect revenue growth around 20% to the for the full year, indicative of strong consumer demand, stable economic backdrop and broadly stable yield over the course of the year. But with lower funding costs translating into accelerating revenue growth, you see a dramatically stronger performance in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year. And for the full year, we expect fintech profitability up 15% versus up 7% in the 9 month period. That is the consolidated performance. I won't sort of repeat really what I've just said previously.

Speaker 1

I think the divisional explanations speak for themselves. Dividend of 850. Dollars Kazakh Tengi declared the pet ADS for the period subject to shareholder approval. And here is the guidance. Again, I won't sort of reiterate repeat what I've already said.

Speaker 1

But the quarter, the Q4 has started well with a healthy and predictable consumer and merchant environment, number 1, and accelerating top line growth in both marketplace and fintech, accelerating top line. And bottom line, we're very much on track for consolidated net income growth of around 25% year on year, which is consistent with guidance throughout the year. Probably just worth adding the point here that as is customary, we'll talk about guidance for 2025 at our full year results update at the end of February next year. So just to preempt that question, it's too early for us to to to make any commentary around next year's guidance, and that is consistent again with how we've always approached things. So just please keep that in mind.

Speaker 1

On that note, I'll hand back to Michal to talk about the hep C Verada transaction. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, David. So we're extremely excited to with the Pepsi Burda transaction and also Turkey as a we believe very attractive market for us. I mean, if you look at that we have said previously that we're looking forward to be a company which is serving 100,000,000 people market. And therefore, we have been working on this for quite some time. The Turkey itself is very exciting market for us, 85 over 85,000,000 people, very large retail market.

Speaker 2

And e comm penetration is 16.3%. And there is the same ways in Kazakhstan. There is a long way to go in and growth going forward and GDP growth is at very healthy levels. So and there is actually a lot of commonality between Kazakhstan and Turkey, for example. Turkey is, just to give you one example, is the most favorite destination for tourism from Kazakhstan.

Speaker 2

We like the company. Again, as we've mentioned many times, we are really looking for the most importantly, the companies and in this case, founders which have shared the same vision of building the companies which care about the consumers, care about the merchants and are not focused just on a growth at all costs. And if you would compare hep Siburata business with Caspi, I mean in general, it's Caspi in the e commerce side only. It's comparable in size, but serving 12,000,000 consumers and the GMV growth at a healthy levels and 100,000 merchants compared to Caspi's 64,000. But what is the most important is really the cultural fit.

Speaker 2

As a company was built by Hansard Dogan that is focused on the quality and the shares the views with us, you know that Kaspi for us the most important is actually the quality of services we develop and how we fulfill our mission of improving people's lives and we do find a lot of similarities. The one thing I would like to mention expecting still a lot of questions that we know that quite often companies would take would make an acquisition and that will made all sorts of immediate promises. And in our case, we have been different in both in our business and also in our statements. We believe that we'll work hard, we'll take a long term view of the business and we're excited about the country and hopefully in our technology and experience will help us to bring even more innovation and combined with Pepsi Borata, we'll be able to do remarkable things and continue delivering on the mission of improving people's lives and merchants and the consumers. And the ones that have followed us for 5 years, you are all we know that we are all about execution really.

Speaker 2

And, and therefore, don't expect from us a lot of promises. But because we believe that, you know, results should speak for themselves and that's would be our the same approach we'll take here. But, you know, we believe we clearly are excited about this opportunity and the fit between the companies. Next slide, David, please. So as you can see, this is sort of more kind of summary again.

Speaker 2

So we like the market. We like the fact that the market is underpenetrated. And again, I would like to make the point that you don't feel you don't see us like you know, we're focused on the quality of the products and we're focused on the quality of the merchants. We're not you know, anticipating asking questions you know, number 1 or number 2, whatever it is. This is you know, the numbers is a result of our strategy.

Speaker 2

Our most important priority is always to, you know, have disproportionate care on the consumers and the merchants. And we really like that is the strong cultural fit. The way that the founders, Anzad and the management team, you know, have been building the business is really a strong fit and makes us to believe that there is a quite a strong fit with the GASPI. So Net Promoter Score is really high. EBITDA is company's EBITDA positive, which means the company has not been growing at all costs and really was focused on delivering the value to the consumers and merchants.

Speaker 2

So we are again excited about our business and the things that we could actually do and make this good company even better. But we clearly are in we believe we're a very good starting point. Transaction is still subject to regulatory approvals. So therefore, you know that there is an important process. So at the moment, we've signed definite agreements, but we'll be going through the regulatory approvals in order to close the transaction.

Speaker 2

David, anything you want to add or anything to add?

Speaker 1

No, I think that is a good summary. Maybe I'll just preempt what I think will be the sort of the first question on hep C with regard to a tender offer. So as Mikael said, we're looking forward to closing this transaction in the Q1 of 2025. This transaction, as announced last week, does not trigger a tender offer. There have been no discussions with Pepsi's remaining shareholders around such an offer.

Speaker 1

We note that both companies will continue to maintain their distinct brands and operating structure. And at this stage, our focus is on closing the transaction as quickly and as smoothly as announced. There's probably not much more we can add beyond that. So probably on that note, Harry, let's open the call up to investors, please.

Operator

Certainly. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question and you have joined us via Zoom, please use the raise hand button on your Zoom toolbar. Our first question today is from the line of Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research. Darrin, please go ahead.

Operator

Your line is now open.

Speaker 1

Hey, Darren. I think you might be on mute. We can't hear you. Still can't hear you. Maybe Harry move on, and if Darren comes back, we'll we'll we'll return to him later.

Speaker 1

Hello, Harry?

Speaker 3

Hello?

Speaker 4

This is Gabo. This is Gabo.

Speaker 1

We can hear you. So do you want to go ahead with your question?

Speaker 4

Sure. Thank you. This is Gabor from Autonomous. A few questions. First one on the Hep Ciburada acquisition.

Speaker 4

Can you give us some flavor on, on, on what you think you can add to the, to the Hep Ciburada franchise? I think you alluded to, to technology being one of them, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts in a, in a bit more detail, please. You highlighted that hep Ciburada has not been as is profitable, but fair to say that not as profitable as, as Caspi. Is this something you would expect to, to, to, to be, be able to change over the coming period? Or is this something which is specific to the current stage, current high growth stage in Turkish e commerce and the competitive situation?

Speaker 4

3rd question would be just for the time of the acquisition. So by the time the full payment has been made, are you expecting to to suspend dividend? And then an unrelated question, which regards to with regard with regards to the allegations around the former shareholder. I was wondering what kind of reassurance do you think you could offer on the on the KYC processes Kaspi has implemented? Thank you.

Speaker 1

All right, Gabor. Thanks for your questions. I think Miguel will take the questions on hep C, Baroda. I would just comment to your last question. I mean, I think we have already commented in detail to this question.

Speaker 1

We've talked about being in full compliance with all local and international sanctions rules and regulations. You may have also seen that the regulator in Kazakhstan commented publicly on Kazakhstan CASB's transparency and particularly with regard to sanctions its efforts to work within the rules, the law. And that is exactly the same with regard to local regulations and laws around money laundering. We're in full compliance with all applicable laws and regulations, and there's absolutely nothing to suggest to the the the country. Keep in mind, in this business, it's probably sort of unique relative to other companies that you look at.

Speaker 1

The vast majority of the transactions are between CASPI consumers and CASB merchants, and there are no sort of third parties in between in most most cases. And that's quite unusual to have that level of visibility on the full sort of flow of the money between usually the consumer and match into fully identified consumer, a fully identified match. And that's not necessarily the crisis in financial services or payments. But beyond our sort of in most companies, but beyond our sort of commentary, there's really little more we can add on this subject. So I'll hand over to Mikael on Hep C.

Speaker 1

Yes, Gabor. Thank you for asking questions.

Speaker 2

I mean, in general, I would say that, again, you're not going to hear from us promises, projections, targets because that's something which we will address in a due course. And again, we prefer the results to speak for ourselves. I think what is important to focus on is the kind of DNA or the culture which businesses have developed. And, you know, we have experienced across many different services. But the bottom line is we are the company which is developing the wide range of services around the merchants and around the consumers and were driven by their needs.

Speaker 2

And ability to develop such a high quality services has been the most important competitive advantage we had. Again, we don't have targets in terms of market shares. We don't have targets in in terms of the in terms of the, you know, the the the vast majority of our of our team in terms of the financial targets. We really have our focus on the quality of the service and how we can excite consumers and merchants. And what we, you know, are excited about is, is that, you know, Hep Segura has been built as a company with this type of, you know, views and divisions and the values and principles.

Speaker 2

And, you know, we have been, yeah, we've been really excited and proud and honored to meet the founder, Hanzade, and we believe that's the opportunity which will give us an ability to jointly continue innovating and exciting merchants and the consumers. Anything else just becomes really the result of what we do. We as David mentioned, again, we are Pepsi Guarato will remain on its own standing as the brand, as the company organizational structure. And we hopefully with sharings between the two companies, we can just have pace of innovation at the rate which will excite the merchants and consumers. But the foundation we have, we believe is very exciting because the foundation is clearly whether we share the same sort of values and the company has been built by a visionary founder.

Speaker 2

The quality of the services and the net promoter score is high. So yeah, so that's basically what excites us. Anything else timing of acquisition you have in our release, the profitability, the starting point is very strong on Habsa burrata and the rest, you know, We just keep working hard alongside with the with have Suburata.

Speaker 4

Thank you and just on the dividends.

Speaker 2

Well, we have mentioned also in our press release that we are intending to close the transaction with the cash from earnings and cash on hand, which, you know, there are things which which, you know, there are things which we generate as a company. But also we have received the investment grade rating in September. So again, there are no discussions or negotiations regarding the capital debt markets at this stage. But the fact that we have an investment grade rating, I think it's quite encouraging. And Kaspi as a company is debt free, which is a very good position and strong position to be in.

Speaker 2

So we might explore the debt capital markets just because it's nice to have in the structure of the capital structure, the type of instruments. But again, no specific discussions, no negotiations on that capital markets have been in place. It's just we have investment credit rating that we obtained in September. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is from the line of Sumit Datta with oh, my apologies. Sumit, you're with New Street Research. Please go ahead. Your line will be open now if you'd like to unmute locally and proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi, there. Hopefully, you can hear me. Thanks very much.

Speaker 1

Yes. Same

Speaker 5

thing. Congratulations on the deal or when it closes. Maybe just a couple on that, please. 1, could you maybe I appreciate you can't give and are not looking to give forward comments, but could you give maybe a quick state of play as to how the market looks today on the e commerce side in Turkey? I was reading around a little bit to try and play catch up.

Speaker 5

And I see Timo's in the market. There's a strong number one player. Just to maybe get a sense as to how you see the positioning of that business today would be super helpful. Secondly, please, what does this imply for any future M and A, I. E, I think we are awaiting maybe a little bit of news flow on Uzbekistan and the network's interest there.

Speaker 5

But aside from these two things, is that kind of it for M and A for the foreseeable future? And maybe if I dare ask, just a follow-up on the dividend, if that's okay. Would you anticipate paying a dividend for the Q4, I. E, before the transaction closes? Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

All right, Sumit. Maybe I'll just try on the dividend question and then hand over to Mikael to talk about the sort of broader market. So I think the message is relatively clear. Well, number 1, we paid the dividend or we've announced an intention to pay the dividend for the Q3. So I think number 2, the assumption you could make is that the next call on cash generated in the Q4 or and or between now and the transaction closing is to fund the transaction.

Speaker 1

And you can draw your own conclusion on that with regard to sort of the potential to pay dividends. But again, to Mikael's point, whilst there's nothing to communicate with certainty today, that investment grade rating for CASB KZ is a good thing to have. It gives us medium term financial flexibility to do various things, whether that be investment, pay dividends, buy back stock or whatever else might be on the agenda. But clearly, it's always good to have optionality, and increasingly, it looks like we may have scope in that regard. But near term, 1st priority is to get this transaction closed.

Speaker 1

1st call on cash is closing this transaction.

Speaker 2

Okay. So on the again, the market structure, you know, I think, you know, pretty much really sort of the same view. We're not when we're going into the services and different services in our home market, which is Kazakhstan and now, you know, sort of Hepzi burata developing further in Turkey, again, subject to closing all of that, you know, the what will be our priority is again the quality of the services we develop. We're not the we don't have a target. We want to be 1 number 1.

Speaker 2

But we want to be number 1 in the leader. Hopefully, we that's what we are, you know, have been sort of we believe have been experiences in is being number 1 in consumer quality and number 1 in merchants. So that has been our priority with our products. And therefore, with the structure, I think there is a lot of public available information. I think that, you know, Hepsiburada is publicly listed company.

Speaker 2

So there is quite a lot of information about the Turkey. The structure of the market in general looks attractive to us, both in terms of the size, but also in terms of the penetration of e commerce, for example, and some other indicators. But that I would really view with I will leave you guys with, you know, you are much better qualified to, you know, dissect the market and make the conclusions. We know we believe that hep C is hep Ciburata is clearly having the same, you know, DNA that we can we can build from together with the between the two companies. In terms of the other M and As, again, we never speculate.

Speaker 2

There has been a lot of work that is going on. On Uzbekistan itself, we basically are waiting for the requirements you know, to the acquirer to be announced and published. So that's pretty much, you know, what we can say about the letter of interest, which we've supplied for the privatization of 1 of the 2 payment networks. And we're just waiting for the criteria to acquire to be published and announced.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be from the line of Darrin Peller of Wolfe Research. Darrin, your line is open if you'd like to proceed with your question now.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks. Can you guys hear me now?

Speaker 1

Yes. We can hear you, Darren. Go ahead, please.

Speaker 3

David, can you guys hear me now?

Speaker 1

Yes. Darren, we can hear you.

Speaker 6

Can you hear us?

Speaker 3

Hello. Can you guys hear me?

Speaker 1

Okay. There must be some problem with our primary. So let's

Operator

let's My apologies. Yes, let's move on. My apologies there. So our next question will be from the line of James Friedman of SIG. James, your line is open.

Operator

Please unmute locally and proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, good evening. Good morning, everyone. So and congratulations on these results. I wanted to ask about how you're thinking about take rate for the remainder of the year. The reason I ask is, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like the outsized growth in e commerce in the Q3, because e commerce has such a high take rate, was accretive to the consolidated take rate for the Q3.

Speaker 7

I think you're anticipating M Commerce improving sequentially maybe as a percentage. So any high level thoughts on the components of take rate would be helpful.

Speaker 1

Mikhail, do you want to take that?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I mean, sure. I mean, in general, I would say that our take rate is driven, quite substantially by value added services, which is delivered in advertising. So they are about 1.8% of our GMV. So again, our take rate is not the result of you know, repricing the seller fees or anything like that.

Speaker 2

But I mean, it goes back again to my point that we're you know, we're focused on delivering the value and the value now we're delivering to the merchants not only through ability to sell through our platforms, but actually ability to sort of deliver and deliver with multiple delivery choices and also launched an advertising campaign. So that's basically the important the drivers of the take rate. The one thing which you also should keep in mind while we have also explained before that actually the e commerce payments, e commerce and then e commerce. Those this is sort of the journey of the merchants with us. And therefore, the e commerce now is also growth is driven by the fact that the more merchants are onboarding to our services from m Commerce.

Speaker 2

So eventually, we believe that, you know, M Commerce will be the suit of the services for merchants in an offline environment, but digitalizing their in store experience and then services industry, which we're currently working on. And then, e commerce will be everything that we can deliver. And again, the take rate is growing by the fact that we are delivering the advertising and delivery services and work and some other services that we work on for the merchants. The one important number to get not a number, but approach from us to keep in mind, you will not see, like, incredible, how should I say, too high of a expansion of a take rate. Take rate has been expanding because the verticals we have been adding, you know, for example, jewelry is a higher take rate than electronics, but we don't believe into over monetizing merchants.

Speaker 2

You're not going to see from us, you know, whatever, 50%, 16%, 17 percent average take rate in our marketplace. This is not something which we intend to do. We you will see expression of the take rate mostly by the fact that we are delivering added value services to the merchants, which for us is important because we don't want to over monetize merchants. And we are supporting the merchants to grow. And if the merchants are growing and successfully, this is how, you know, it's a measurement of our success because we are, you know, getting paid basically from every successful transaction really.

Speaker 2

So from that perspective, is it important to keep in mind the way we approach the take rate.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then if I could just follow-up, Mikael, with regard to the gift card initiative on Page 8, I know these gift cards are very popular in certain I'm trying to read up on them, they're very popular in certain markets and have been in the developed markets at times too. So how should we be thinking about the strategic relevance of gift card, the seasonality of gift card because I would imagine it's quite seasonal. Any way to unpack the significance of gift card would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you. That's a good question. At the moment, I would say that we are just launching this exciting service to have the consumers get engaged. And that's basically a gift card on our own, shopping on our own, marketplace e commerce platform.

Speaker 2

So that would be sort of for us the important strategic priority. It will basically helpful to driving the GMV itself. The one huge difference which you should keep in mind is basically that our gift cards have no expiration date. So in other markets, gift cards, the way that people actually make money is counterintuitive. People make from the consumer perspective, you make money because you forget about your gift card.

Speaker 2

So somebody makes money because you forget spending your gift card. And this is exactly what we are not doing. So it has no expiration date. It will be in our we believe it will be driving the GAV growth and the consumer engagement, especially in different verticals. And at the moment, there is as much as I can say.

Speaker 2

But as we progress with the new services we'll launch around gift cards, we'll be reporting over time. And I think this will be quite exciting sort of quite exciting suit of the services around the gift card. But at the moment, it's really growth of the G and V when the consumers are engaged and of course, you know, beautiful design, which makes consumers really happy and excited about it. But you know, that's that's that's for us. It's a it's really a medium term, I would say, goal with the gift cards and we'll be explaining to you some of the impacts and economics as we move forward with the service.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question today is from the line of Reggie Smith with JPMorgan. Reggie, please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the questions and congrats on the deal as well. I appreciate you guys don't want to give financial guidance and I totally get that. I was just curious maybe you could put a little more meat on the bone around just your approach to integrating an acquisition and kind of growing a business. This is a little larger than I would have expected in terms of the size of the company you're buying.

Speaker 3

And it sounds like there are a lot of parallels, but like where might there be gaps that CATSP can make 2 plus 2 something more than 4 as it relates to HEX? I may have a follow-up. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Rajeev. I mean, in terms of the in terms of your question, again, I think, probably looking at our track record and the history of innovation and how we actually are working through different services that has number one priority, which is be a very high quality. So that's what you would expect from us now in terms of the, you know, forward looking statements, the projections, anything like that. You know, again, we're would like the results to speak for themselves. I think that the bottom line is still, you know, conclusion is very important that there are quite interesting aspects between those two companies which are very similar, right?

Speaker 2

So and the fact that the company is being focused on sustainable growth and being, you know, EBITDA positive, it's a testament to the current shareholders to the founder and the management team because there are a lot of companies which finance the growth at the expense of the shareholders. And and and in case of hep Ceburata, this was one of the attractions for us. So again, this is, it's a it's a it's a strong it's a strong company in the commerce segment. It's it has a good brand. It values the consumers opinion and and what Caspi can really bring is just more experience, more technology from from us as.

Speaker 2

You know, we have quite much wider range of the services in our in our mobile app. So I think there are there are a lot of exciting, you know, knowledge and technologies that we can we can really share between the 2 companies. And again, Caspi itself has a lot to learn from hep Segurata because hep Segurata is specialized on e commerce, which is the largest part of its business. And, you know, hopefully, following closing the transaction, you know, I can't really wait when the two teams can share the knowledge. I think they will be when you're asking the question 1 plus 1 is 3.

Speaker 2

I think that needs to be plus 1 plus 1, 3 in terms of us, you know, and the teams sort of working together and and and continue launching the innovative services and learning from each other. And that would be our most important priority. Once we achieve that, everything else is just a result of our joint work. So, we're waiting for transaction to close. And I can't really wait when the guys will be able to talk to each other.

Speaker 2

I think it will be incredible, in my opinion, will be a very exciting cooperation between like minded management teams.

Speaker 3

No, that makes a lot of sense. I don't know if you can share at this point like what products specifically where you see an opportunity. And then I had a question on Jumu. Have you guys announced or decided how many Jumu events there will be in 2025? And just generally speaking, like how quickly is that business growing?

Speaker 3

I don't know if there's a way you guys can kind of triangulate that in terms of penetration within your base and spend, like how fast is Zumma growing on a kind of like for like basis?

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, I mean from our from next year basically will be quite comparable to this year. So the main thing what happened in 2024 is that David, can we move this slide so it's not confusing like to the Q and A? Yeah. Thanks.

Speaker 2

So basically, we the what actually happened during this year is that seasonality of the campaigns and marketing has followed the consumer and the merchant demand. Again, we are quite unique, right? We believe we're quite unique company compared to many others. So we have a wide range of different industries, services, verticals, and each of those verticals have their own seasonality. So this is what happened this year.

Speaker 2

So basically, we followed our merchants and we followed our consumers and we've taken on board their feedback. And therefore, we are running roughly quarterly roughly quarterly marketing promotional campaigns. The biggest campaigns in general, I would say the biggest campaigns are the Zuma in the first queue, Zuma in a second queue, back to school, which is happening in August, sort of September and the New Year. And sorry, Zuma in the 4th queue. So that's basically the promotional campaigns you have this year and we believe that we can have the same sort of seasonality for next year.

Speaker 2

So the next year will be quite comparable to 2024 and we're just trying to explain this year because between 2nd Q and the 3rd Q, there is a bit distortion on the GMV. But next year, we'll have pretty much the same strategy as this year.

Speaker 3

Got it. I guess is there a way to frame how quickly that event is growing? Like is it faster than the corporate average, slower? Just curious about penetration and the opportunity there with Jumu.

Speaker 2

No, no. I mean, again, it's a promotional campaign, right? So what actually happens is as you become bigger and as you have the range of the services through the seasonality, so you just have less dependence on one specific campaign, right? So it's actually a very good news because then basically we have more from your perspective guys this year next year, there will be a more predictability in terms of planning our quarterly growth. And we'll give you a bit updates here and there.

Speaker 2

But in general, it's almost we started history was we started with 1 Juma, which was big event in a year. Then we moved to 2 Jumas. Then we had 3. And now we have different campaigns through the year just because initially, we start from electronics, and now we are in pretty much everything, including the travel. So so therefore, you know, now you you have really much more manageable seasonality for this year and the next year.

Speaker 2

But Juma is again promotional campaign like Amazon Prime, single days in China, Black Friday and things like that. It's just in Kazakhstan, there is pretty much Juma. Is no Black Friday. There is no it's basically, you know, us sort of running the campaigns for our merchants and the consumers. Okay.

Speaker 2

Any more questions?

Operator

Thank you. Yes, our next question is from the line of Mikhail Burtkov of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Mikhail. Your line is open. You may need to unmute locally.

Operator

Mikhail Bokov, your line is now open. If you'd like to unmute locally and proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Yes. Sorry. Yes, thank you very much for this call. Yes, I have one more question, if I may, on Hebsi Borade and more broadly on the new projects where you expressed interest on Uzbekistan, for example. The question is and obviously, I appreciate that you cannot as you mentioned give projections targets now.

Speaker 8

But in terms of your thinking of the time which the core management of Kaspi allocates between the different assets of the group, be it the new potential asset in Turkey, some new interest in Uzbekistan and the core operations in Kazakhstan. How do you see the time which, yes, the CASB management allocates between these assets, given that they especially the Turkish asset is relatively large in size and in some on some KPIs, it is of the comparable size with the Caspi in Kazakhstan? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, I think this question really goes you know, to goes back to our, you know, philosophy and strategy. You know, there is no metric how much time would we allocate. You know, that is we, you know, have to be brought a company with a strong position, the strong, management team and we believe with a strong brand. And I would even say probably our we as a customer on e commerce side of things have a lot to learn from Pepsi Bura team because they have been focused on e commerce, you know, 100 percent or majority of their business is really e commerce when our business is quite diversified. So there is no such metric how much time we're going to spend.

Speaker 2

I can tell you one thing, there is no we don't operate under like other companies would do that. You know, here you see the smartest guys on the on, you know, that come and start suddenly teaching everyone how to do business. This is not the way Caspi operates. You know, Hepsegourauda has a very good management team. You know, we will be, elicoding, you know, sharing the technology, eliciting resources just to help the company to become even better.

Speaker 2

And there are services which we have a lot of experience with, which we'll be sharing. But again, myself personally, I will be spending time in Turkey and perhaps Gurada just to share as much of a knowledge and vision from our you know, experience, right? But again, this is not I mean, this metric for us doesn't exist. We don't have how much time we need to spend. You know, we will have hep Segurata teams coming down here, and we'll be just doing whatever we need jointly, to, you know, continue exciting the merchants and the consumers and and innovating really and and sharing as much as we can.

Speaker 2

I think that's the beauty of this, you know, deal and the transaction that we are investing in the company, which is, in our opinion, in our view, and we believe is is a very good company. And there there are things which we can help, we can add, we can share experience. But again, that's basically the fundamentally the way we sort of approach this transaction from our side.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you. Thank you very much for this color.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And unfortunately due to time, we will only be able to take further two questions. And our next question will be from the line of David Shapiro of Van Schapp Capital. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Operator

Please unmute locally.

Speaker 9

Thank you, gentlemen. Can you hear me?

Speaker 1

Yes, David. Go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Thank you guys for your strong execution and transparency as always. It's much appreciated on behalf of the shareholders. Just two quick follow ups since most of my questions have been asked. I think the implication is that current management and the founder is going to stay in place in Hep C and if that's correct, I guess, how do you keep them motivated since obviously you've taken out the controlling share?

Speaker 9

So just some high I know you probably can't get into too much detail, but just some high level thoughts on how you keep them motivated since you guys think so highly of them? And then another quick question. So you talked about obviously there's this Turkey acquisition you've done, you're waiting on Uzbek. Would it be a safe assumption to say that you have your plate full with deepening your product lines in Kazakhstan, Turkey and if Uzbekistan is successful in these three countries and you're probably good for now as far as international expansion would go? Would that be a fair assumption or is that incorrect?

Speaker 2

Okay, David. Yes, thank you. Thank you for asking those questions. I mean, in general, on the personal note, I'm really very honored and yeah, and the proud being able to meet, you know, Hanzadeh, the founder of the Hebsiburata. And I think the you know, that our ability to actually do this transaction was based on the fact that, you know, companies and the values and the vision is very similar.

Speaker 2

And Hanzada clearly cares deeply about the company which built. And as you know, you would care about the baby, any entrepreneur would care about the companies they have built. So, Hanzare will be working with us to make sure that the transaction is and the ownership transition is as smooth and as productive as possible. In terms of the again, the HEPSI is a public company. So the way the company has been developing, I think there are already things in place.

Speaker 2

Again, we are not coming with the attitude there. There are things which we know that work and there are things which, you know, have Segura knows work. So I think 1 plus 1, 3 would be, you know, really our approach as Yeah, as Raji has has has explained. So in our case, we're just looking forward to really putting the great minds together and we are the top managers in a hep C. Top managers are also very experienced.

Speaker 2

You know, we'll yeah, we're just looking forward to keeping this rate of the innovation and excitement in the company. But, you know, still subject to closing, but looking forward to meet the board members and so on and so forth. It's still, you know, we're still in the transaction approval process, right? So I wouldn't really bring too much towards it. But again, this whole this thing is exciting because it started from 2 entrepreneurial companies and, you know, sort of founders really getting excited about, Yeah.

Speaker 2

Just we believe how many similarities are between 2 companies. So I think that's that's very important. And I have enormous respect for what Hanzada has achieved with the Hepzi Gurada and the Turkish market, really exciting for us.

Speaker 9

That's great. And then on the international question, do you feel that you guys are kind of satiated between these 3 core markets that you have the potential now to deepen your product well

Speaker 2

on? Well, I mean, again, if you the way we always said that 100,000,000 over 100,000,000 people market is like 100,000,000 people market. It's really something which really excites us because that's something we can deliver on our mission on the much broader markets. And at the moment, we're working we'll be working through approval processes in Turkey. And we are basically just waiting for Uzbekistan to understand the requirements for the acquirers.

Speaker 2

So that's pretty much the status on the payments company in general. I would say those markets by itself are really exciting and have a wide coverage of the region. So again, I wouldn't really make any sort of make a lot of promises in general, but I think that those markets are really exciting and surely can keep us busy to develop the services which delight consumers and merchants.

Speaker 9

Thank you guys and best of luck.

Speaker 2

Thank you, David.

Operator

Thank you. And the final question in the queue today will be from the line of Ronak Gadhia with Dunross. Please go ahead. Ronak, your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Congratulations on the results and thanks for taking my questions. Just maybe more or less follow ups from what many of the previous callers have been asking. With regards to the Hepps acquisition, could you just share your thoughts in terms of the structure of the transaction? It's an all cash deal.

Speaker 6

Wouldn't it have made more sense given that you're entering a new market to maybe keep the owners involved as you're getting your feet under the table? So that's the first question. And the second question, I guess you've spoken a lot about your payout ratio. You've already talked about it quite a bit about what happens in the short term. But maybe could you maybe speak about what the implications of this transaction could mean to your payout ratio in the medium term?

Speaker 6

When you look at HEPS, from what you've seen and from the discussions you've had, does the company need any significant cash injections to continue its growth momentum? Is that why the owners are trying to now sell out because they're not able to raise the cash?

Speaker 1

Hey, Verona. We have a cynical question. So I think the answer is no. On the payout ratio, so I think it wouldn't be appropriate to talk about medium term. I mentioned earlier that we're making the dividend payment for the Q3.

Speaker 1

Clearly, this transaction has to be funded both from cash on hand and cash that we generate between now and closing q4 earned and q41. And then thereafter, I think you should just look at the company's track record. So there's a couple of things that you could sort of look to there. 1, always a company that is willing to invest, number 1, but also, number 2, a company that invests in a sustainable way with an emphasis on growth, profitable growth. I think you can apply that to whatever market where we're present in, number 1.

Speaker 1

Number 2, I think, again, you've covered us for a long time or followed us for a long time, a company that doesn't sit on cash that it doesn't need, it will return cash. And again, we've made dividends. We've paid dividends consistently. We've also bought back stock for a long period of time when we were in London. And then the third point, which myself and Mikhail have already made, actually going forward, we'd hope to have more flexibility given the potential for debt financing, which is something that over the last 5 years or historically we've not explored.

Speaker 1

So I think if you judge us on sort of what you've seen in the past and make that a similar base case going forward, that wouldn't be unreasonable. But we can't really sort of get into specifics about what the dividend might be in 2 years or 3 years today. And then I'll hand over to Mikael to talk about control of the getting control of the business.

Speaker 2

Well, yeah, I don't think there is anything in this question, which I haven't really explained. I do think that like minded people can get the incredible things done. So from that perspective, I think we're just really excited because the the company profile and the way we have been able to, you know, to structure the transaction as well. I mean, that is, you know, we're not we're not looking for 100 percent happiness, right? There will we're not $100 bill to be loved by everyone.

Speaker 2

But the one thing I can tell you that, you know, it's when buying by shares, I think our shares are undervalued. And we always said that we will put cash to work when we see the opportunity. And I think this is and I truly believe this is the opportunity which presents itself and it's really exciting. And again, the one thing which excites me is that like minded people are getting together. That's the most important in my opinion because like minded people then can get all sorts of things done either from the transaction itself or actually the, you know, the the future development and innovation and growth.

Speaker 2

So that's the most important foundation of the future. Rest, like minded people can always figure out the things which can work the best for consumers and the merchants.

Speaker 6

Thanks, guys. Congrats once again.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude the Q and A session. I'd now like to hand back over to David for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

All right. So thanks a lot, Harry. Thank you, everyone, for participating in the call. I can see that there are a couple of people still in the queue to ask questions. We've unfortunately got to jump onto another call, but happy to continue to continue the discussion offline.

Speaker 1

So please get in touch. Thanks again for your time today. Hope to see and speak to you over the next couple of weeks, and thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. We'll go back to building businesses. Have a good week, everyone.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's webinar. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect from the call.

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Earnings Conference Call
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz Q3 2024
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