Royal Caribbean Cruises Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 29, 2024

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Traveling to me.

Speaker 1

Experience the best family vacation in the world, icon of the seas. It's the first of a whole new class of ships where everyone in your crew will have the time of their life multiple times a day. You'll never forget the feeling of plunging down 6 record breaking slides at Kuril Island or finding the courage to conquer the crown's edge, a test of bravery like nothing you've ever dared dangling high above the ocean. And dial up your downtime at the Surfside neighborhood, where little cruisers can get drenched in fun at Splashaway Bay Aqua Park, while adults can soak up the views from the water's edge pool. On inspiring by day, iconic by night, the Aqua Dome, perched at the crown of the ship, is home to mesmerizing performances beneath a tower and waterfall, gourmet dining, and dramatic ocean views.

Speaker 1

Icon of the Seas is everything you've ever loved about every vacation, all rolled into 1. Experience it all with your family on board 7 Night Caribbean Adventures from Miami, Florida. And in summer 2025, we're introducing even more new wows, thrills, and shills for everyone. Introducing the next icon of vacation, Star of the Seas. Learn more about icon class ships@royalcaribbean.com.

Speaker 2

At Celebrity Cruises, we elevate every detail beyond what you thought a vacation could be. With globally inspired food, exclusive destinations, and exciting itineraries, we're nautical miles ahead of any other vacation. From bartenders who remember your favorite cocktails, to concierges who you'll swear can read minds, you'll always feel like a regular. Once you explore the world with us, you'll never want to vacation any other way. Nothing comes close to Celebrity Cruises.

Speaker 2

We look forward to seeing

Speaker 3

you

Speaker 4

onboard

Operator

soon. It's when all your senses become aware. You are present and focus. That's traveling to me. It's an urgent need to go and an instant imperfection, images printing on your soul.

Operator

This is authentic beauty. It's all out there, trust me. There's always room for discovering.

Speaker 5

Discover more on silversea.com.

Speaker 1

Reset all your expectations for what you can do in one day at the award winning private island in the Bahamas, Perfect day at CocoCay. Plunge down 13 water slides at Thrill Water Park, including the tallest slide in North America, Dare Devil's Peak. Take flight on a helium balloon ride that soars 450 feet up, then play it cool at the largest freshwater pool in the Caribbean, Oasis Lagoon. And kids can have even more fun by the gallon at the biggest Splashaway Bay aqua park yet, or board the shipwreck splash pad for splash buckling thrills like slides, rope bridges, and 30 water cannons. So whether you're riding 1600 feet of zipline, getting your game on at South Beach, or enjoying the ultimate beach day at Chill Island, You've got countless adventures to choose from all in one day, all in one island, only on Royal Caribbean.

Speaker 1

Learn more at royalcaribbean.com/perfectday@cocokay.

Speaker 2

With Celebrity Cruises, you're going to need a bigger bucket list. We can take you to over 300 destinations across 7 continents and offer authentic experiences in each one. Feel like a local on anything but ordinary excursions from the Great Barrier Reef in Australia to the glaciers of Alaska, from secluded beaches in the Caribbean to the Colosseum in Rome. Whichever destinations you've been dreaming about, we're here to take you there. And what really makes us different is our ships, which offers so much to explore along the way.

Speaker 2

You'll never ask, are we there yet?

Speaker 6

Good morning. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Group Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. All participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

Speaker 6

I would now like to introduce Blake Banyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Banyer, the floor is yours.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our Q3 2024 earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer and Michael Bailey, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International. Before we get started, I'd like to note that we will be making forward looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

Speaker 7

Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward looking statements as circumstances change. Also, we will be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non GAAP items can be found on our investor website and in our earnings release. Unless we state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency adjusted basis. Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business.

Speaker 7

Naftali will follow with a recap of our Q3, the current booking environment and our updated outlook for 2024. We will then open the call for your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. I'm thrilled to discuss our exceptional Q3 results, updated outlook and all the exciting things happening at The Royal Caribbean Group. This has been an incredible year for us and the Q3 was no exception with momentum continuing to build. As you saw in the press release, we increased our full year yield and earnings guidance driven by better than expected results for the Q3 and an improved outlook for the Q4. Our full year yield is now expected to be up by more than 11% and earnings by more than 70%.

Speaker 4

In addition, we are on track to deliver more than $3,300,000,000 of cash flow this year and have reached a key financial milestone while returning to a fully unsecured capital structure that will support our growth ambitions and expanding capital allocation. During the quarter, we also announced 2 exciting expansions of our private destinations portfolio with the incredible Perfect Day Mexico opening in 2027 and Silversea's new hotel in Puerto Williams, Chile opening in the winter for the 2025, 2026 Antarctica season. I want to thank the entire Royal Caribbean Group team for their passion, dedication and commitment that enables us to deliver the best vacation experiences responsibly and to drive exceptional financial results. These strong financial results and the achievement of our trifecta financial goals 18 months ahead of schedule are truly just the beginning for us. With our industry leading global brands, the most innovative fleet and private destinations and the best people, we remain focused on winning a greater share of the $1,900,000,000,000 vacation market.

Speaker 4

Our plan to capitalize on this opportunity is grounded in our proven formula for success, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost control. We are thrilled to share more details during an upcoming Investor Day in the Q1 of next year. Before I get into the details of our performance this quarter, I want to acknowledge the storms that impacted our local communities. We are incredibly thankful that our South Florida employees were largely unaffected, but true to the Royal Caribbean Group spirit, we mobilized relief efforts for those in need. Our thoughts continue to be with those who have been affected.

Speaker 4

Now moving on to discuss our results and outlook. 3rd quarter results exceeded our expectations due to strong close in demand at higher prices on all of our key itineraries, coupled with continued strength in onboard revenue. As a result, net yields were up 7.9% year over year, which was 110 basis points above our guidance. Better revenue, lower cost due to timing and multiple balance sheet actions resulted in adjusted earnings per share that was higher than our guidance. Now Tali will elaborate more about Q3 details and results in a few minutes.

Speaker 4

We are increasing full year yield growth expectations to 10.8% to 11.3%, as strong demand for our experiences across itineraries is translating into higher load factors, stronger pricing and continued growth in onboard revenue. Trends remain strong for the balance of the year and despite the impact of Hurricane Milton, we now expect net yield growth of 5.1 percent to 5.6 percent for the 4th quarter on top of an increase of close to 18% last year. We also expect strong margin and earnings growth with adjusted earnings per share expected at $11.57 to $11.62 and EBITDA margins that is more than 300 basis points higher than last year. We are very pleased with how demand is shaping up for 2025, with bookings outpacing 2024 levels during the Q3 and into October. Our book load factors are in line with prior years at nicely higher rates, allowing us to further optimize pricing and yield growth as we build the book of business for 2025.

Speaker 4

Our nimble sourcing model and AI enabled yield management tools coupled with our brand's global and multi generational appeal allow us to successfully capture quality demand across segments, source from new and younger consumer bases and attract the highest yielding guests. The last 2 years saw unprecedented yield growth and although that created a high bar for comparables, our proven formula for success of moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost control will continue to drive top line growth, margin expansion and substantial cash flow. While still very early in the planning process, we anticipate earnings in 2025 to start with a $14 handle. We continue to see a very positive sentiment from our customer and a macro environment that favors growing demand for experiences and vacations. American households are wealthier than ever with continued wage growth and low unemployment driving strong consumer spending.

Speaker 4

Spend on leisure has grown a lot faster than most other spend categories over the past 12 months with spend on travel increasing at a faster pace than other leisure categories. Our research suggests that this trend will continue over the next 12 months with leisure travel spending growing by more than any other leisure category. Millennials, families and active cruisers are all over indexing on both leisure travel and specifically cruise travel. Cruise remains an attractive value proposition and cruise purchase intent remains high. Furthermore, the majority of consumers are now actively planning their next vacation, but haven't booked it yet, further supporting demand for cruise.

Speaker 4

With our exceptional and leading portfolio brands, innovative and differentiated ships, exciting and exclusive destination experiences and leading commercial and AI driven capabilities, we are excited to welcome those customers on board our ships and deliver the best vacation experiences responsibly. Our addressable market is growing and we are attracting more new customers into our vacation ecosystem, particularly younger demographics. In fact, the majority of our guests this year are either new to cruise or new to brand, while at the same time our loyalty guests are up 20% compared to last year. Once booked, guests are quickly engaged with us and buying onboard experiences at higher APDs, translating into higher satisfaction rates and higher onboard spend. Notably, more than 70% purchase onboard activities before they sail and they spend more than double compared to those who only make purchases onboard.

Speaker 4

Half of our onboard revenue in the Q3 was purchased through our AI driven pre cruise channels. We deliver vacation experiences that meet the demands of evolving consumer profiles and preferences. A key differentiator for us has always been our hardware, where we are constantly innovating. This quarter, we launched Utopia of the Seas, a ship that has quickly become a game changer for our short Caribbean product, which serves as an important entry point for new to cruise and new to brand. It also skews towards millennials and younger guests.

Speaker 4

The demand for Utopia has been incredible and has well exceeded our expectations for both ticket prices and onboard revenue. Following the incredible market response to Icon of the Seas and the anticipation of Star of the Seas, we announced our agreement to build a 4th ICON class ship, which will join the Royal Caribbean fleet in 2027. Since its debut, ICON has revolutionized vacation experiences and continue to exceed our expectations in both guest satisfaction financial performance. We also continue to build on our exciting collection of private destination experiences. Earlier this month, we announced 2 incredible land based initiatives that will be truly game changing for our guests.

Speaker 4

We are incredibly excited for our recent announcement of Perfect Day Mexico, which will combine the adrenaline pumping thrills and ways to chill that Royal Caribbean is known for with the vibrancy and beauty of Mexico. Perfect Day Mexico is strategically located to deliver exceptional vacation experiences in both the Eastern and Western Caribbean and supports our ambition that every guest on the Royal Caribbean brand will have a perfect day on their Caribbean itinerary. It also allows us to further grow the large and growing Gulf Coast area, including the Texas market, which is larger than Florida and has a similar cruise consideration, but only half the penetration. Upon its completion in 2027, Perfect Day Mexico will join our incredible collection of private destinations that include Perfect Day at CocoCay and La Badie, Royal Beach Club Paradise Island opening in 2025 and Royal Beach Club and Cozumel opening in 2026. Silversea is developing the world's southernmost hotel in Puerto Williams, Chile that upon completion in late 2025 will create a unique seamless journey for guests embarking on Silversea's innovative Antarctica fly cruise program.

Speaker 4

The most direct route to the White Continent, allowing guests to enjoy Silversea's personalized service and warm hospitality throughout their voyage. We remain committed to our See the Future vision, sustaining the planet, energizing communities and accelerating innovation. Last quarter, we achieved our trifecta financial goals and we now expect to also achieve a double digit reduction in carbon intensity compared to 2019, 1 year ahead of our original expectation. This further solidifies our commitment and focus on advancing the sustainability of our business. As part of our journey to accelerate innovation to decarbonize our business, we continue to diversify our fuel sources.

Speaker 4

Our newest ship, Utopia of the Seas, completed her inaugural transatlantic crossing using bio LNG in July. ICON will start utilizing shore power at Port of Miami next week and Celebrity Excel will be our 1st methanol capable ship, which are all important milestones in our energy transition. We have so much to be proud of and this is just the beginning. With our industry leading brands that excel in each of their respective segments, the most innovative fleet and destinations and the best people who are focused on delivering a lifetime of vacations for our guests, we focus on winning share from the large and attractive travel industry, while delivering long term shareholder value. And with that, I will turn the call over to Naftali.

Speaker 4

Naft?

Speaker 8

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. I will start with Q3 results. Our teams delivered another exceptional performance that exceeded our expectations, resulting in adjusted earnings per share of $5.20 The $0.25 per share outperformance compared to the midpoint of our guidance is driven by better revenue across our brands and key itineraries, benefits from multiple balance sheet actions we have taken during the quarter as well as approximately $0.10 per share favorable timing of expenses. We finished the 3rd quarter with a net yield growth of 7.9%, which was driven mostly by stronger APDs. The strong yield growth was driven by both new ships and like for like hardware and across all key itineraries, especially Alaska and Europe.

Speaker 8

Net cruise costs excluding fuel increased 4% in constant currency. The favorable cost performance compared to our guidance is driven by favorable timing of expenses that more than offset the negative impact of stock compensation given the appreciation of our share price during the Q3. Adjusted EBITDA was $2,100,000,000 24 percent year over year growth and adjusted EBITDA margin was 44%, 2 40 basis points higher than last year. Now let me talk about our increased guidance expectations for 2024. We are set to have another exceptional year of yield growth with net yield expected to be up 10.8% to 11.3%.

Speaker 8

The increase in our yield guidance is driven by the stronger than expected performance in the 3rd quarter and better outlook in the 4th quarter, which also includes the impact from Hurricane Milton. Now moving to costs. Full year net cruise costs excluding fuel are expected to be up 6.2% to 6.7%. Our cost metric is up 40 basis points compared to our prior guidance and is driven entirely by higher non cash stock based compensation given the increase in the stock price since the last earnings call. We anticipate a fuel expense of $1,160,000,000 for the year and we are 61% hedged at below market rates.

Speaker 8

We are raising adjusted earnings per share guidance to $11.57 to $11.62 I want to provide a little more color on the progress of our earnings guidance. We are increasing our guidance by $0.20 for the year, which includes $0.14 negative impact from Hurricane Milton and higher stock based expense. When excluding that impact, the $0.34 better than expected business performance is more than half driven by 4th quarter outlook and the remainder related to better third quarter results. Now I will discuss our Q4 guidance. Many of the ships have now transitioned from their summer to their winter itineraries.

Speaker 8

In the Q4, about 63% of our capacity will be in the Caribbean, 9% in Europe and about 13% in the Asia Pacific region. The remaining capacity is spread across several other itineraries including repositionings, West Coast and expedition cruises. We plan to operate 12,800,000 APCDs during the Q4. Net yields are expected to be up 5.1% to 5.6% for the Q4, which includes approximately 40 basis points impact from Hurricane Milton. As our yield growth normalizes, we remain focused on executing on our proven formula of modern capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost control that delivers strong earnings power and cash flow.

Speaker 8

Net cruise costs excluding fuel are expected to be up 11.6% to 12.1%. The year over year increase in costs in the 4th quarter is predominantly driven by elevated dry dock days, higher non cash stock compensation and shifting of costs from the Q3. Without those, our costs would have been in the low single digits. Taking all this into account, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the quarter to be $1.40 to $1.45 The quarter includes $0.14 impact from Hurricane Milton and higher stock based comp in addition to approximately $0.10 of cost shifting from the 3rd quarter. Now I will share insights for 2025, which while still very early is shaping up to be another exciting year.

Speaker 8

2025 capacity is expected to be up 5% as we introduce Star of the Seas in the 3rd quarter and Celebrity Excel in the 4th quarter, as well as benefit from a full year of Utopia and Silver Ray. Capacity is most pronounced in the second and fourth quarters due to the timing of new ship deliveries and dry docks. We are growing Caribbean capacity about 5% in 2025 and it will represent about 57% of our deployment. We expect the opening of Royal Beach Club Paradise Island in Asah at the end of 2025, which will benefit our 2026 Caribbean itineraries. European itineraries will account for 15% of our capacity, Alaska will account for about 6% and Asia Pacific will account for 11%.

Speaker 8

As Jason mentioned, our book load factors are in line with previous years and at higher APDs. Our book's position is exactly where we want it to be to further optimize our yield profile and deliver on our formula for success, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost discipline. This positions us to continue delivering margin expansion and strong cash flow. Now moving to costs. Our focus remains to manage costs as we seek to grow our margins.

Speaker 8

In 2025, we expect to have lower dry dock days compared to this year, but still higher than 2023, partially due to longer drydock days for several planned modernization projects of our existing ships. Overall, we expect disciplined cost growth consistent with our proven formula and we will provide more details during our Q4 earnings call. Taking all of this into account, we expect adjusted earnings per share to start with a $14 handle. Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $3,900,000,000 in liquidity.

Speaker 8

Over the last 2 years, we have made significant progress in strengthening the balance sheet and this quarter we reached a key financial milestone by returning to a fully unsecured capital structure. During the quarter, we refinanced $3,500,000,000 of debt, lowering rates by 300 basis points. Our leverage was below 3.5 times as of the Q3 on a trailing 12 month basis and when excluding the impact of new ships that were delivered mid year. Also this quarter, we opportunistically exchanged $827,000,000 of our outstanding convertible bonds for cash and shares. This transaction allowed us to address a 2025 debt maturity, while also effectively buying back 5,100,000 shares at an attractive weighted average price of $154 per share.

Speaker 8

Our strong balance sheet position allows us to further support our growth ambitions and expand capital allocation, while delivering strong cash flow and maintaining investment grade balance sheet metrics. In closing, we remain committed and focused on executing our strategy and delivering on our mission. With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for question and answer session.

Speaker 6

You. Our first question will come from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning, everybody, and congrats on another really solid quarter. The first question is about pricing and kind of thinking about the exit rate that you're seeing in the Q4. And I want to take a sort of a broader look and think about if you can kind of talk about like for like pricing cumulatively from versus 2019 and just sort of level set where you think you're at? And if you're still trailing sort of cumulative U. S.

Speaker 9

Inflation, does inflation coming down next year act as some sort of governor a little bit how strong yields can be or how do you think about that?

Speaker 4

Sure. First, good morning, Brent. Hope all is well. I think first just kind of starting off is when you compare to 2019 levels, whether it's the 4th quarter is up about 25%, the year is up about 26% versus 2019 levels. And so I think when we look at that, there's a lot of things that could that's inside of that, which is not only just like for like growth, it's not just the new capacity, it's also great assets like Perfect Day fully normalizing within our business.

Speaker 4

And while there has been a lot of growth on the pricing standpoint, a little bit of growth on the occupancy standpoint, the trends show that we continue to be able to elevate demand, elevate pricing each day. And so what you see in the overall trends is that we continue to see strong volumes, the customers' willingness to pay more. I don't think this is an inflation related type of driver. I think the driver is that cruise or propensity to cruise is at a significantly high level. I think that the cruise experience is now considered to be a very mainstream vacation product.

Speaker 4

And there's still a significant value proposition versus land based vacation. So I think the combination of really understanding what our guests are looking for and leveling up our business with our brands meeting those expectations, the ships meeting those expectations, the destinations meeting those expectations and having the tools and technology that really allow us to harvest quality demand, I think is all leading to why we keep seeing outperformance on the yield growth side. And we do not in any way see anything, any ingredients that say that we're hitting some type of ceiling. If anything, we see continued acceleration in demand for our business.

Speaker 9

That's super helpful. Thanks for that, Jason. And then just a follow-up, and you had a pretty exciting announcement here intra quarter, and I know that Perfect Day Mexico, you'll probably talk a lot about that on the Q1 Investor Day. There were some conflicting reports out there at how much the capital investment was that was going to take. I was wondering if you could maybe give us a little bit of insight into the sort of gross level of spend and if you want to talk a little bit about sort of the return expectations that you'd expect for that project that would be helpful.

Speaker 9

Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes, sure. Well, I think just starting off on a cost standpoint, we're still in the design and planning process for Perfect Day in Mexico. Obviously, we have an incredible foundation of what our guests are looking for and their willingness to spend and experience with Perfect Day at CocoCay. We did acquire the port, which you'll see later in our filing today for $292,000,000 It's not just the port, but it's also all the land that is surrounding the port. And again, we're still in that design process.

Speaker 4

But what I would say is, we're very mindful of having sizable significant returns associated with these private destinations. But more importantly, we're very focused on making sure that the guest experience is at an all time high. Perfect Day at CocoCay is our highest rated destination on a net promoter score. So our ability to not only capture additional demand from other markets, but our ability to deliver a perfect day to basically every Royal Caribbean International guest in the Caribbean, I think just drives greater demand for that brand. And I think that's ultimately what we look for because we know that when we can deliver the best vacation in the world, our guests are willing to pay for that and they're also willing obviously to help us deliver great financial returns on investments like these destinations.

Speaker 8

Brent, just one quick thing

Speaker 10

to add. You'll see obviously in the 10 Q today, that acquisition and we expect to close that in the first half of twenty twenty five. So that will be also included in our capital commentary in the next quarter.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks everybody.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey guys, good morning and congrats on another very solid quarter. So Jason, if we think about your 2025 dollars $14 handle earnings comment, and look, I know it's early on in your planning stages for next year. But just wondering how you guys are thinking about what are maybe some of the pillars that are going to get you to that $14 plus in earnings? And I assume you're going to tell me the company line of moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost control. But is there anything else you can help us with as we think about next year based on your current book position?

Speaker 4

I mean, Nath gave us

Speaker 11

some really good color on the cost side, but anything we should be thinking about from the yield side or how we should maybe be thinking about interest cost next year? And does that $14 a share plus include any buybacks or would buybacks be accretive to that number?

Speaker 4

Sure. Well, Steve, I think you said our company line really well, and it is something obviously that we're very religious about. To get to the I would say it's not $14 we're saying it's going to have a $14 handle on it, is you really just need moderate yield growth and you need us to continue to manage our costs effectively. And of course, we're going to benefit from interest costs, but a lot of the great activity we've been able to do over the past couple of quarters to get our balance sheet back to pre COVID leverage levels as well as getting to an unsecured state. So I think that will help drive that.

Speaker 4

So on the share repurchase standpoint, obviously, we were able to take some action here last quarter and being able to recapture about 5,100,000 shares that were dilutive to us. And but I would say in that number, that does not contemplate us buying back shares, which of course, when you look back in time, we've always had, when we think about capital returns, a mix of having competitive dividend and opportunistically buying back shares. So it's but that is not something that is in the consideration set in that early guide of the $14 handle.

Speaker 11

Okay. Got you. Thanks for that. And then second question going back to Perfect Day Mexico. Jason, can you help us think about maybe the potential yield uplift you guys might be able to achieve based on what you've learned from CocoCay?

Speaker 11

I guess, I'm just trying to figure out as we start to think about 2027, what that yield outlook could look like for your Western Caribbean itineraries? I mean if we assume based on our math CocoCay, they had at least a double digit impact or yield impact on your Eastern Caribbean itineraries. I mean is there any reason to believe you guys won't see that same type of uplift for your Western Caribbean itineraries?

Speaker 4

Well, I would say what you pointed to is directionally right. I mean, I think we certainly see an uplift not there's a piece of it, which is the uplift on that we get from the onboard side or the on island revenue that we get. But there's also a lot of things on that island we don't charge for. And so our guests, whether you're paying for some of the more unique experience like Hideaway or the Beach Club or the Slide that you would see on Perfect Day at CocoCay that will of course exist in Perfect Day in Mexico. People going to those islands or going to Perfect Day at CocoCay pay additional money for access to all the things that we also provide on that island, not just things that you have to pay for.

Speaker 4

So I think what you kind of pointed to a double digit yield opportunity is certainly there in the Western Caribbean. And I don't think we can think of something that would not generate more demand because of course we're going to take the learnings from CocoCay and we'll obviously apply things that work exceptionally well. And if there's things that we can do better because that's kind of our continuous improvement mantra, we will certainly do so to drive really strong demand. I think it's also important to add, Steve, and with all of this too is we're going to have the Royal Beach Clubs, one in Nassau, we're going to have 1 in Cozumel as well in Vanuatu, which is in the South Pacific. So there are other things that we're doing that will also be value drivers for our shareholders and also improve our yield profile.

Speaker 11

Okay. Got you. Thanks, Jason. Appreciate it.

Speaker 4

Sure.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thanks and congrats on another really nice quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 12

So Jason, could you elaborate on the continued elevated demand patterns that you cited, maybe just trends across regions through October that you're seeing? And then for 2025, Naftali, maybe just if you could elaborate on the booked position being exactly where you want to further optimize deals. What exactly that means? How it translates to continued margin expansion?

Speaker 4

Yes. So I'll take the first one. Of course, the team can chime in on it. We have it's I think each month that goes by, our expectations rise. You're seeing that in the close in demand.

Speaker 4

And even as we saw through the month of October, we saw that demand continue to rise. We're able to increase pricing as well as being able to successfully build our book position, whether it's for the quarter or whether it is into next year. So that's what our commentary around the elevation is that it continues to strengthen. And that is despite obviously having a couple of off days around the hurricanes, right? Because when we have hurricanes, there is people are concentrated on adding more important things like making sure their homes are secured or they're focused on the news.

Speaker 4

And so there's always a little bit of softness that can come a couple of days in or around a storm. But we were able to see when we look at the month, we were at an elevated position. We saw the same thing happen in September, an elevated position above and beyond what had already risen through the course of the year. And I think that helps us kind of build not only a strong quarter, but also a strong period into next year. And I'll let Nav comment on the optimal book position.

Speaker 10

Yes. So Matt, as you can imagine, every year we go through this process where we build a book of business for the next year. We try to maximize yield, right? That's the most important thing that we do and we try to do. And we, in the last couple of years, have been focused on deploying AI tools and other technology to make sure that we are taking all the information and making the right decisions.

Speaker 10

And what it means is that we feel pretty good at where we sit. We built a good start to build a good book of business and we have good runway to continue to drive demand and pricing as we kind of cross the year into Wave.

Speaker 4

Yes. And Matt, if I could just add one point to it. Obviously, our yield management tools get smarter and better every day. And when we look back, whether we look back at the same time last year or even the year before, we would obviously look at that and say we had some regret. We left revenue on the table.

Speaker 4

The tools would have said we should have slowed a little bit our bookings. But we I think we're probably a little bit more conservative in that. And so I think we're building more and more confidence in these tools. We're in line with our book position same time last year, way ahead of where we were in 2019. We're at higher rates.

Speaker 4

And so I think we're now looking to wake up and be able to say, oh, look, we're booked ahead of same time last year on a volume standpoint. We're here wanting to make sure that we optimize our revenue for 2025 and beyond. And that's ultimately what's most important is to drive yield growth and strong margin returns.

Speaker 12

That's great color. Best of luck.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Operator

Thanks. Wanted to zoom in a little bit more on the bookings trends recently. It sounds like things I think you used the term accelerated since the last call despite maybe a little bit of hurricane noise within bookings in October. Can you comment on what you expect bookings growth to look like through the course of the quarter? I imagine that pouring ad dollars at a time when there's hurricanes or election noise maybe isn't the best strategy?

Operator

And how you imagine managing your ad budget through the course of 4Q into early next year as you get a kick in the wave season?

Speaker 4

Well, obviously, our guide for the quarter, we typically try to guide at a fifty-fifty position. I think what we have not been able or it's probably a good problem to have, but when we see demand patterns elevate, and I think that's through really just great advocacy from our guests who are coming off of our ships, having the best vacations of their life. And then, of course, we're seeing them book more frequently, occurring. And then we that advocacy is building more demand and that helps feed all the great marketing that our teams do each and every day. So I think we continue to expect that we're going to invest in marketing the way that we have, and the types of marketing that we have been doing And that's driving really healthy demand for our business.

Speaker 4

So we're obviously not guiding on the quarters for next year or for next year outside of saying moderate yield growth. But I think that we're focused on generating high quality demand across our different channels in our different markets.

Operator

Great. And one follow-up on that. You mentioned the hurricane having a small impact here on 4Q yields. Any carry through into 'twenty five based on what you can see right now? And I think last year at this time, you called out a little bit on the cadence of the out years yield growth.

Operator

Anything worth mentioning, still opportunity to drive occupancy, anything worth calling out for yield growth in the next year?

Speaker 10

Yes. Hey, Vince. So not really, there hasn't been any impact on from the hurricane. So that's not and nothing really to call out some of the capacity growth, just given the dry dock days and the delivery of the ship at the new ships next year.

Operator

Great. Thanks.

Speaker 13

Hi, Vince. It's Michael. Just to add, on the impact of the elections on bookings, we've gone back and done the analysis over literally decades. And it may be there may be a little bit of volatility during the week of the election, but over when you spread it over a longer period, there's effectively no impact on bookings as a result of elections, no matter which way they go.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Shakin with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. First, just want to touch on something that Jason, I think you mentioned that may have been glossed over. Did I hear you correctly? Did you say the Gulf Coast is a similar sized cruise market as Florida, but only half the penetration? And then presumably sorry, go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. No, actually, I didn't say that. I said Texas is a similar sized marketplace that has half the penetration with a very similar propensity to cruise. So I think that having assets like the Royal Beach Club in Cozumel, Royal Beach Mexico will allow us to drive more and more not only of that market, but also more of the Gulf Coast and other markets that can have an easier fly cruise experience and have a lower cost fly cruise experience.

Speaker 10

Got it. And I guess the feedback that you've gotten from customers or the work that you guys have done suggests that it's just a lack of destinations. Texas being under penetrated or how do you think about that opportunity? It seems really compelling.

Speaker 13

Hi, it's Michael. Just to add to Jason's comments, I mean there's quite a few really positive things that come with Perfect Day Mexico and the Beach Club Cozumel. One is that we can really introduce a much larger volume of short product market out of Texas, Louisiana, North Florida, Tampa. I mean, it really is a great opportunity for us. And we know that that short product really catches with the younger families.

Speaker 13

And of course, we'll be able to offer really an extraordinary short break from these ports to Perfect Day in Royal Beach Club Cozumel. So we think that's really a huge competitive advantage. And when you think about the product offering that Royal Caribbean will have, for example, in the Texas market, We opened up our brand new terminal just around when we came out of the pandemic. That's been a huge success. It's incredibly efficient and it can handle the large Oasis and Icon class ships.

Speaker 13

So when you think about that class of ship operating on shore product to Perfect Day Mexico and Royal Beach Club, we think we've really got a great product offering for our customers out of Texas and all of the Gulf ports.

Speaker 10

Got it. That's very helpful. And then shifting gears a little bit. CocoCay has clearly been a material positive over the last couple of years. As you think about your next private destination, Paradise Island, directionally, will that have a similar level of ancillary uplift per customer?

Speaker 10

Why or why not? I know it's slightly different than CocoCay geographically.

Speaker 13

Yes. It's slightly different. I mean, it's going to be an exclusive beach club experience. It does have approximately 4,000 people a day will be able to go to the Royal Beach Club in the Bahamas. The difference is, is that when you go to Perfect Day, it's a combination of pay for and included in the cruise.

Speaker 13

You can actually go to Perfect Day and you can have a great day, a Perfect Day without having to spend additional to experience things. But with the Royal Beach Club, it will be all for pay. I mean, you'll have to literally buy a ticket to go and experience the Beach Club. And so we see it as a really positive revenue generator with good margins.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Appreciate it.

Speaker 6

Your next question comes from the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hi there. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to start off on costs. So I was looking back and you've called out favorable timing of costs, I think every quarter.

Speaker 14

Just curious if you can share more details there and which kind of cost buckets that's hitting in the Q4? And whether there is also a degree of just that strong cost discipline that's also kind of benefiting the cost line?

Speaker 10

Yes. Hi, Lizzie. So this year is a little of a unique year. We have a lot of dry docks double what we had last year. So a lot of the cost timing that we have called out this year, and you're right, has been related to those dry docks, specifically around supply chain impacts from the suppliers.

Speaker 10

And we're trying to work around it to make sure that we kind of get the best timing out of it. But that's always a little tricky, especially today. So that's really what it is. And we're trying to manage, as you know, costs really, really strongly and really making sure that we are focused on enhancing margin. And at the same time, making sure that we make the right investments into the product, making sure that we are investing for the future.

Speaker 10

So all of that is going to how we manage the cost.

Speaker 14

Got it. That makes sense. And then just on the kind of comments around moderate yield growth longer term. A lot of the questions on the call are focused about all these tailwinds you have with the new private islands, private destinations, the new ship premiums that you have. So does that moderate yield growth longer term, does that bake in the upside from the private islands and the new ships that you have coming online with those big premiums?

Speaker 14

Is that or is that more of a kind of like for like outlook?

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi, Lizzie. So I think when we look at moderate yield growth, which has a little bit of a range to it, I think when we think about like for like and new hardware, like typically new hardware will contribute a point or so a year to our yields. I mean, because the base is getting bigger, we do expect there to be like for like growth. And then you get to the higher I mean, again, this is looking at things historically.

Speaker 4

You get to the higher end of the range when you have the introductions of these private destinations as an example into it. And that's why I think when we look at the outlook, like we're not and we look also we look at the value gap, right, opportunity that's ahead of us. When we think about in the outer each year, we try to more plan on what we have seen in the past and that's where we kind of get into that moderate yield growth kind of outlook. The only thing I would say is that when you're also in the course of a year where your yields keep increasing, we guided at the beginning of the year at 6.5%. As Nav commented, we're over 11% this year and so just the comparable gets a little bit different.

Speaker 4

But that moderate yield growth is kind of when we look at a long term run rate is what we have seen generally take place in our business and kind of takes into consideration market trends and behaviors that we have seen over time.

Speaker 14

Got it. Thanks. That's helpful.

Speaker 6

Our next question will come from the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. Just hearing your commentary about the 2025 outlook, it sounds like it's sort of off to an above average start. And so if we look at where you guided yields, say the 5 years before the pandemic, your initial guidance would kind of be in the 3% to 4% range for net yields. Should we think about that as being kind of what is average or typical and maybe you're sort of positioned to be better than that next year?

Speaker 4

Well, I would say, well, first, hi, Robin. Hope you're well. It is still too early for us to guide for next year. But I think how you looked at kind of our historical long run average, that's more or less where we had landed. I mean, we'll see how the book continues to build and our ability to continue to be able to raise prices off of a we've already raised them and that's off of a higher base and see how we continue to close that gap to land based vacation.

Speaker 4

But we're not at the point yet, I think where we want to give yield guidance by quarter or for next year. But feeling very good about the strength of our demand patterns that we're seeing and the book position and our ability to continue to optimize our yield profile.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up, a question on your order book. Can you give us an idea of kind of what period you're sort of done ordering for? In other words and I'm counting your options, I'm kind of thinking of them as being orders.

Speaker 5

But anything that you're still thinking about any periods like have we seen all of your orders for 2028 at this point, but sort of 'twenty nine and forward still fair game or just how to think about that? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think for the most part, you certainly have seen all of our orders through 'twenty seven and maybe even into 2028. But as you commented, we have lots of options that are available to us that we've secured. But I will say that we heavily subscribe to moderate yield growth, moderate capacity growth and good cost control. So on that moderate capacity growth standpoint, we continue to look to moderately grow our fleet, moderately grow each of our brands.

Speaker 4

And again, as just a general reminder, when we order ships and we take ships, they're not all going to the same brand, they're not all going to the same market, they're not all going to the same itinerary. We operate a very large global footprint that we feel very confident about our ability to get yield growth and good yield growth on capacity growth over time.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Robin.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from the line of Connor Cunningham with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, everyone. Thank you. The numbers are obviously very good. Inaf, you've done a very good job with the balance sheet. When I look at your debt at this point, not a lot of high cost that left, your cash flow is going to start to really ramp.

Speaker 3

I'm just trying to understand, are you going to continue to lean in the balance sheet or are we thinking about cash flow as a or potentially to really start ramping to shareholders? I realize that maybe discussed at Investor Day, but just any thoughts there would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 10

Sure. Yes. So thank you. First, it was very important to us. It was very important pillar of trifecta to make sure that we bring the balance sheet back to being an asset.

Speaker 10

So we obviously crossed a very key milestone this quarter with getting it back to unsecured status, no guarantees, all the guarantees and security that we have granted to everybody during the pandemic to get through are gone now. And then we also feel that where we are on the leverage is within our targets. We will continue to make sure that we have a very strong balance sheet. And while a lot of the high cost debt is gone, we always continue to find ways to lower the cost of capital, and that will be the focus to make sure that we generate even more cash flow for the company. And as we think about capital allocation, obviously, we need to maintain a strong balance sheet.

Speaker 10

We have a great opportunity to invest as we see a large opportunity in almost $2,000,000,000,000 market to continue to win share. So we're doing very important things and strategic things like the new ships, the destinations, technology and other things to get closer to the customer and just getting better with our business. And then we reinitiated the dividend last quarter, and we said that we want to continue to get into a competitive dividend factor. And then historically, there also was capital return through a buyback. We did something this quarter with the converts.

Speaker 10

So obviously, with a lot of cash generation, we will continue to have those opportunities.

Speaker 3

Okay, helpful. And then you talk about all these investments that you have underway. Historically, I would think that with investments come additional cost pressures and so on and so forth. But it seems like this is going to be a regular type of cadence in terms of new product investment, whether it's onboard or private islands and whatnot. So should we just assume that there's going to be an ongoing cost pressure from investments in your outlook going forward?

Speaker 3

The point being is this like talk about strong cost management. Is it just is that going to be embedded in there over the long haul? Yes.

Speaker 10

So we managed yes, absolutely. So we managed the business and the cost on the holistic basis, right? So we take everything into account, including everything Yuji just said. We continue to grow capacity. We're a large company.

Speaker 10

So as we kind of think about prioritization of where we're going to invest both capital and costs, all of that is into the account. And we're very much subscribed and committed to the formula, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, strong cost control. And we think that a lot of these investments, while they may add some cost to the cost structure, they will have incredible returns and there will be a margin expansion.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think that's one really important point, which we've gotten this in the past is, our focus while obviously we want to grow yields, we want to manage our costs, but our ultimate focus is growing our margins. And by growing our margins, it leads to obviously a higher and higher return profile. Higher margins will result in more free cash flow and capital that's available to our shareholders, etcetera. So I think that there are these new things that come up that can sometimes cause a little bit of noise in our numbers as we add more destinations without APCDs as an example. But with that, it would also come obviously increasing our yield profile expectations and all that driving a better guest experience, higher margin and higher returns.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hey, good morning. I wanted to actually stay on this topic of potential investments. It certainly seems like you have a broader menu of investments available to you maybe than ever and at higher returns, I should say. I guess maybe speak to why your return profile seems to be so much better than it has been for you and I would argue maybe better than we've ever seen in this industry. It's one of the questions I continually get certainly for new Cruise investors who just haven't seen this as a viable or a strong return type of an industry.

Speaker 15

It seems like something has changed meaningfully. And I guess as we think about moving forward, where do you think returns ultimately settle in over the long term? Is there a ceiling? You're at double digit return on invested capital. It doesn't seem like it's slowing down necessarily.

Speaker 15

So just trying to think through sort of what the end game is there or at least the long term?

Speaker 4

Yes. Well, James, I think there's a lot of things that are inside of that. I mean, we for this is a long term business. We've been making very, I think, thoughtful investments for a very long period of time. I think a lot of it starts with being very discerning about what are the segments we want to be in, building our brands to be leaders in those segments, making sure they're seated with ships and experiences on those ships that are very much tuned into those segments and what are the customers of today and the customers of tomorrow are looking like.

Speaker 4

And then really looking at how can we enhance the experience and also monetize it. And we've been able to do that on the destination front. A lot of that I think comes down to our focus is orienting ourselves as an experience business and focusing on what's happening in broad travel, leisure, consumer on the experience side and then ensuring that we have the wherewithal and the assets to be able to wake up every day and compete with that. And I think that's not just on that are very visible like ships, but it's also on technology and how do we take friction out of the experience, how do we be more sophisticated in how we yield manage and how we interact with our customer. And I think all those things combined is why we feel that we are able to continue to enhance our margins and our return profile, which we both think have runway to that.

Speaker 4

This is a business with a lot of fixed operating leverage. And so just moderately growing your yields and being mindful of your costs drops a lot of margin opportunity to the bottom line. And I think us being very focused on how do we take share, more share out of that 2,000,000,000 dollars I'm sorry, dollars 2,000,000,000,000 travel leisure market is I think what's driving us. And I think that you should expect us to continue to think and behave in that way.

Speaker 15

Got it. That's really helpful. And then along those lines, as I think about capital allocation, obviously, returns focus is key. But maybe can you speak to any non financial considerations to that? And by that, I in the early question, Nath talked about leverage profile.

Speaker 15

It sounds like there's really no priority that you're putting on bringing debt down even further outside of just refinancing and sort of improving maybe that interest rate. But maybe as I think about some of these land based vacations in the context of the competitive environment, whether it be other cruise lines or other land based competitors. How do you think about these investments in the context of continuing to push your advantage in those areas and what that brings you longer term?

Speaker 4

Sure. Well, as you said, James, I think we feel really good about the balance sheet. Naf commented, there's always opportunity for us to do better. We're obviously also returning and being thoughtful about returning capital to our shareholders. I've talked about it, competitive dividend as well as share repurchasing, especially on an opportunistic basis.

Speaker 4

But of course, that's always a Board decision. And then look, we're focused on how do we keep our customer in our ecosystem, right? And so we're an experience driven business and how do we have strong sustainable growth and leverage all the experience to know how we have internally. If there are other experiences that will that are that can keep our customer on our ecosystem, those are always things that we'll consider. That probably doesn't mean we have to buy something.

Speaker 4

It could mean we could build something. It could mean that we partner, have strategic relationships, but ultimately trying to get, more reps out of the customer and doing that because we're delivering the best vacations in the world. And that's why I know we have our slogans, but I think that we are the best in the world at delivering a vacation of a lifetime and we are building more and more of the capabilities to deliver a lifetime of vacations.

Speaker 15

That's really helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 6

And that will conclude our question and answer session. I'll hand the call back to Naftali Holz, CFO for closing remarks.

Speaker 10

We thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Blake will be available for any follow ups. We wish you all a great day.

Speaker 6

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Speaker 1

Experience the best family vacation in the world, icon of the seas. It's the first of a whole new class of where everyone in your crew will have the time of their life multiple times a day. You'll never forget the feeling of plunging down 6 record breaking slides at Grill Island.

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Earnings Conference Call
Royal Caribbean Cruises Q3 2024
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