Redfin Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 31, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to SCI's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to SCI Management.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. This is Allie O'Connor, AVP of Investor Relations and Financial Reporting. Welcome to our Q3 earnings call. We will have prepared remarks about the quarter from Tom and Eric in just a moment. But before that, let me quickly go over the Safe Harbor language.

Speaker 1

Any comments made by our management team that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the SEC that are available on our website. Today, we might also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the tables at the end of our earnings release and on our website.

Speaker 1

With that out of the way, I will now turn it over to Tom Ryan, Chairman and CEO.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ali. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with some high level color on our business performance for the quarter, then provide some greater detail around our funeral and cemetery results. I will then close with some thoughts regarding our earnings expectations for the rest of 2024 and preliminary thoughts about 2025. For the Q3, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $0.79 which compared to $0.78 in the prior year.

Speaker 2

Gross profit for both the funeral and cemetery segments was relatively stable. Below the line, the favorable impact of a lower share count and a lower tax rate was nearly offset by increased corporate general and administrative expense caused by changes in our total shareholder return and its corresponding effect on our long term incentive compensation plan as well as increased interest expense resulting in a net $0.01 increase in earnings per share. We also had a very active quarter on the business acquisition front. We invested $123,000,000 during the quarter into top tier businesses in growing major metropolitan markets adding 10 funeral homes and 2 cemeteries. We are excited to welcome our new teammates into the SCI family.

Speaker 2

We also invested an additional $31,000,000 in real estate transactions for the expansion of our footprint of funeral homes and cemeteries in our existing markets. Now let's take a deeper look into the funeral results for the quarter. Total comparable funeral revenues increased $7,000,000 or about 1% over the prior year quarter. Comparable core funeral revenue provided $4,000,000 of the $7,000,000 revenue increase as core average grew by 2% absorbing a 30 basis point increase in the core cremation rate. This growth was attained even with the core funeral volume decline of 1%, which was better than we had expected for the quarter.

Speaker 2

SCI Direct non funeral home preneed sales revenue decreased by $5,000,000 primarily due to a decline in sales production as we transition from trust to insurance funded contracts and by the effect of operational changes in certain markets with respect to the timing of merchandise deliveries. Board general agency and other revenue grew $8,000,000 primarily due to growth in general agency revenue driven by higher average commission rates resulting from our new preneed insurance marketing agreement as well as the effect of selling a heavier mix of underwritten insurance products which carry higher commission rates versus a flex or non underwritten product. Funeral gross profit declined slightly by about $2,000,000 while the gross profit percentage declined 50 basis points to just over 19%. This decrease was in line with our expectations as inflationary increases in our fixed costs slightly outpaced our 1% revenue growth. Preneed funeral sales production decreased by $22,000,000 or about 7% over the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Core preneed funeral sales production decreased by $14,000,000 or 6%, primarily due to the transition to our new preneed insurance provider during the quarter. We anticipate comparable core preneed sales production to normalize over the coming months. Non funeral home preneed sales production decreased $8,000,000 or 10% as SCI Direct transitions from trust to insurance funded contracts. This transition required many of our sales counselors to obtain insurance licenses, which caused a temporary slowdown in sales, but this too should stabilize and grow again in the coming quarters. Now shifting to cemetery.

Speaker 2

Comparable cemetery revenue was flat as compared to the prior year quarter as a $5,000,000 increase in other revenue was offset by a $5,000,000 decrease in core revenue. The $5,000,000 decline in core revenue was primarily the result of a $4,000,000 decline in add need revenue combined with a $1,000,000 decline in total recognized pre need revenue. Breaking the components of recognized pre need revenue apart, recognized pre need merchandise and service revenue growth of $10,000,000 from higher quality contract sales averages being delivered out of the backlog was offset by a decline of $11,000,000 in recognized pre need property revenues. Other revenue grew by $5,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter, primarily from an increase in endowment care trust fund income as we continue to expand our total return investment strategy through successful industry and legislative efforts. Comparable preneed sales production decreased by $8,000,000 or about 3% primarily due to a decline in large sales, while our core production was relatively flat.

Speaker 2

For each of the last three quarters, we've generated around $40,000,000 in large sales. Prior to 2023, we had only achieved this milestone once

Speaker 3

in our history. Last year,

Speaker 2

we averaged about $48,000,000 per quarter in the second, third and fourth quarters. In the face of these very challenging comparisons, our sales results remain very strong. At our largest location Rose Hills, our customer access to some of our new premium sections has been limited this year due to ongoing development activities. We anticipate we will return to low to mid single digit growth in 2025 as we continue to see long term strength in our premium cemetery inventory and sales production. Cemetery gross profits in the quarter increased by $1,000,000 and the gross profit percentage increased by 10 basis points generating an operating margin of 32%.

Speaker 2

While revenues were flat, growth in higher margin trust fund income and managing our fixed cost expense growth below 3% allowed us to grow gross profits modestly. Now let's shift to discussion about our outlook for the remainder of 2024. Our current outlook for the Q4 of 2024 for adjusted earnings per share is $1 to $1.10 representing expected growth of 8% to 18% compared to $0.93 of adjusted earnings per share in the Q4 of 2023. We expect to grow both comparable funeral and cemetery margins in the 4th quarter, primarily from the impact of higher general agency revenues from our new preneed marketing agreement on the funeral side. Then on the cemetery segment, from the favorable impact stemming from the servicing of our merchandise and service preneed backlog, coupled with endowment care fund trust income.

Speaker 2

Increased profits from recent acquisitions and lower corporate general and administrative costs will be somewhat offset by higher tax rate. As we think about 2025, we are optimistic that we can return to earnings per share growth towards the higher end of our historical annual guidance of 8% to 12%. We anticipate funeral volumes stabilize as compared to 2024 levels and preneed cemetery sales production to return to low to mid single digit percentage growth. We are highly confident we can grow general agency revenues impressively with our new preneed insurance marketing agreement. The negative effects of comparably higher interest rates and lower SCI direct profits from operational changes in 2024 should trend positive in 2025.

Speaker 2

And finally, the contributions from the fantastic class of acquisitions in 2024 should provide another positive trend for 2025. Beyond that is where I truly get excited. With our vast North American network containing market leading brands and businesses, a world class workforce and a robust $16,000,000,000 preneed backlog. We are poised to capture incremental value for our shareholders as future demographic trends have a very positive impact on our industry. In conclusion, I want to acknowledge and thank the entire SCI team for their daily commitment to our customers, our communities and one another.

Speaker 2

Your dedication is the foundation of our success. Thank you for making a difference every day. With that operator, I'll now turn the call over to Eric.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. Going to kind of start the way Tom just ended. So before we get it too much into the financial prepared remarks, I want to address all of our associates tuning in this morning and want to express my sincere gratitude to you and your unwavering dedication to our communities as well as the client families that you serve. And let's face it during their most challenging times, what you are doing is truly amazing.

Speaker 3

And whether you're on that family facing frontline or in a home office support role, your commitment and hard work truly make a difference and are deeply appreciated by all of us in senior management. So thank you for everything that you do. So with that, I'm going to start the prepared remarks by discussing our cash flow results and then move into capital investments during the quarter. I'll then make a few comments on corporate G and A expense and our current financial position before concluding with some updates on some guidance specifically related to cash flow. So during the quarter, our adjusted cash flow remained strong as we reported adjusted operating cash flow of $269,000,000 This exceeded our expectations internally and is an increase of more than $41,000,000 or 18% over the prior year.

Speaker 3

The primary drivers for the strong cash flow growth were favorable working capital sources of $54,000,000 in the quarter. This continued to benefit from higher customer cash receipts derived mainly from previous preneed cemetery installment sales. So over the last couple of years, we've seen a significant increase in our preneed cemetery sales, particularly during COVID. We generally finance these sales over a 4 to 5 year period and continue to see the benefits of the strong installment cash receipts as a result. These higher working capital sources were partially offset by our lower adjusted operating income of about $12,000,000 during the quarter and higher cash interest of about $6,000,000 which is primarily related to higher debt balances.

Speaker 3

Cash taxes in the quarter were flat year over year and as we've discussed several times now over the past several quarters. This year has benefited from a tax accounting method change related to the timing of recognition of cemetery property revenue. Looking forward beyond 2024, we expect cash taxes to revert toward a more normalized level, which will result in an anticipated increase of about $150,000,000 in annual cash tax payments in 2025 compared to 2024 and then we'll continue at that more normalized level in the years beyond that. Now let's talk about the capital investment during the quarter. We're very excited about the investments that we made during this particular quarter.

Speaker 3

We invested a combined $320,000,000 of capital, which is allocated back into our existing businesses, purchase or constructed new businesses and return capital to our shareholders. This is the highest quarterly investment rate for $2024,000,000 higher than our prior year quarter. Specifically, we invested $88,000,000 into maintenance capital in the quarter, which was slightly higher than our expectations due to some timing of some projects. So let's break that down a little further. We deployed $44,000,000 to high yielding cemetery inventory development projects.

Speaker 3

And again, that supports future preneed cemetery sales growth, dollars 37,000,000 of maintenance capital to maintain our current best in class facilities and $7,000,000 into digital investments and corporate initiatives. Additionally, we also invested $13,000,000 in growth capital to expand some of our existing funeral homes and construct some new funeral homes as well. Now let's talk about the acquisitions, which was particular highlight for us during the quarter. As Tom has already mentioned, we successfully closed on several significant businesses in major markets for a total of $123,000,000 of spend. This brings our 2024 investment on acquisitions to $162,000,000 which significantly exceeds our typical range of $75,000,000 to $125,000,000 on an annual basis.

Speaker 3

We are happy to welcome all of these new associates from these acquisitions to the SCI family. In addition to acquiring these businesses, we also spent $31,000,000 purchase in real estate in California, Florida and Texas, some of our largest states as you know, for future development of cemeteries and funeral homes. Lastly, in terms of capital return to shareholders, we returned nearly $65,000,000 of capital to shareholders in the quarter and this is through $44,000,000 of dividends and $21,000,000 of share repurchases. So let's talk about those repurchases for a second. Year to date, we purchased about 2,700,000 shares at an average price of just around $71 resulting in just under 145,000,000 shares outstanding as of the end of the quarter.

Speaker 3

Subsequent to the quarter, we've also repurchased another $25,000,000 in shares, bringing the total year to date capital return to shareholders to $353,000,000 about a little over $130,000,000 in dividends and a little over $220,000,000 of share repurchases. So now let's shift to corporate G and A where we incurred $44,000,000 in the quarter, which is a little bit higher than our 38 to $40,000,000 that we expected as the normally quarterly range of 2024. The increase was primarily due to higher long term incentive compensation on plans that were supported by growth in total shareholder return or TSR during the quarter. We remain comfortable with the 4th quarter range in $24,000,000 of $38,000,000 to $40,000,000 for normal corporate G and A expense. So I'd like to share a few updates also on our solid financial position.

Speaker 3

And in September, just to remind you, we issued an 8 year $800,000,000 note at a 5.75 percent rate, which we used to repay about $780,000,000 of our long term bank credit facility. This transaction was immediately accretive as we effectively swap 7.4% debt for 5.75% debt, which calculates to about $11,000,000 to $12,000,000 savings on an annual basis. Additionally, this transaction also meaningfully increased our liquidity because it freed up availability on this long term bank credit facility. At the end of the quarter, we had liquidity of about $1,500,000,000 made up of $185,000,000 of cash on hand, plus about $1,300,000,000 now available on this long term bank credit facility. Our leverage at the end of the quarter increased slightly to 3.78 times on a net debt to EBITDA basis, putting us near the midpoint of our 3.5 to 4 times targeted range.

Speaker 3

Now let's shift a little bit to going forward in cash flow guidance. Cash flow has remained strong driven by better than expected cash flows from preneed cemetery installment receipts as well as a somewhat lower cash taxes. As a result, as you saw, we're raising the midpoint of our 2024 adjusted cash flow from operation guidance range from a midpoint of $930,000,000 to $950,000,000 This resulted in a 2024 range of $940,000,000 to $960,000,000 and specifically a range of $230,000,000 to $250,000,000 for the 4th quarter. Also, our expectation for total maintenance CapEx guidance remains unchanged for the full year of 2024 at about $325,000,000 So looking beyond 2024, I now like to give you some high level color on our 2025 cash flow expectations. To neutralize cash taxes for a second and talk before cash taxes, our cash flow in 2025 should be positively impacted by our expected earnings growth that Tom just discussed as well as expect to continue strength in these preneed installment cash receipts.

Speaker 3

From a CapEx perspective, while we're initially expecting the capital to maintain our field locations and cemetery development spend to be slightly higher than 24 levels, we expect continued moderation in our digital investments and corporate initiatives heading into next year, which really results in our overall maintenance capital will be generally flat in 25 to 24 levels. So in closing, our cash flow remains a key strength at our company and combined with our strong balance sheet should allow us to maintain the financial flexibility to keep providing value to our shareholders. I want to once again thank our entire SCI team for their invaluable contributions each and every day. So with that operator, this wraps up our prepared remarks. And now we'll pass it back to you and open the floor up to questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer And the first question comes from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to start out discussing cemetery preneed sales. Just want to get a sense for maybe recognized revenue here into the end of the year and into 2020 5 and more so in 2025. Thinking about where based on what you're seeing ending 2024, what type of levels do you think would be reasonable?

Speaker 4

Would any commentary about large sales appreciated as well? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure, Scott. So as you think about the Q4, again, we've got a really tough comparison, particularly in the when you think about large sales, I think it was around $48,000,000 So that's a big one to overcome when you think about production. On the recognition front, last year we had a pretty big influx and this is typically seasonal in the Q4 of recognized projects that get completed. And I think this year will be slightly below last year, but in line with that. And so a lot bigger than the Q3, but when you compare back to the Q4, it's pretty comparable, slightly below.

Speaker 2

As you think about 25, I think from a sales production and recognition basis, we feel pretty confident again that we can get back to traditional growth levels. And again, I know that's been it's been a long time, but we kind of model that in the low to mid single digit percentage range. I do think we know that the COVID epidemic had an impact on funeral volumes, our lead sources for cemetery. And so we kind of feel like 25 is the year volume stabilized and we believe preneed sales should stabilize and get back to traditional growth levels.

Speaker 4

Thanks. And Tom, on just on large sales, I heard you mentioned Rose Hills has some ongoing construction that may prohibit timing on that. Does that play into what we saw in the quarters or in the quarter? Or was it purely just year over year comps being so challenging?

Speaker 2

Yes. If you look at for instance, just take road sales, I mean to show you how significant it is, traditionally large sales last year probably ran $9,000,000 $10,000,000 in the quarter. They're running 5 a quarter right now. So that's a pretty big delta and that's solely based upon we're not finished with a section and have the ability to take customers up there and see it. But that will be open in 2025 as an example.

Speaker 2

So I'd expect Rose Hills to be a growth opportunity when you think about large sales for next year.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Appreciate that. And then just on the funeral side, and I'll turn it over, what gives confidence for flattish volume growth in 2025 as perhaps another year of reversion post the pandemic pull forward. Just want to get a sense of what you're seeing there and tying in that funeral pre need was a little weaker than we expected in the quarter. Just some thoughts on what the kind of run rate should be on that going forward or the status quo?

Speaker 4

Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Sure. So on the funeral volumes, I think it's just we've had these models that we've again, it's a bit of a guess, but we anticipate that there's still pull forward effects. But again, we think the markets are growing. We think we're beginning to see increases in deaths as it relates to the demographics of the population. So our model just show it flattening out in 2025 and then getting into slight growth post that.

Speaker 2

And again, that could be off a little bit one way or the other, but we're pretty confident that it's going to be somewhere near that. On preneed funeral, I would expect that that is going to get a lot better. I mean, we talked a little bit about it. There's so much change going on for both core sales and SCI direct sales. So on the core side, 1, we're transitioning to a new contract, a new provider.

Speaker 2

And 2, I think we talked about a little bit before, we were uncomfortable with the fact that we sold a lot of what we call a flex product, which didn't give our customers protection during the payment cycle. So, we spent a lot of time with our new partner saying how do we onboard more people into a underwritten insurance product, which gives them that protection. And so that has caused a little bit of a hiccup as you think about people before that have a hard time getting underwritten for a variety of reasons, health and others. It's just a complicated process. We think that's starting to stabilize.

Speaker 2

And so when I think about 25, I think we're going to get back to traditional levels of growth when you think about the core product. SCI Direct is a little bit different and that not only are we we're transitioning from a trust product to an insurance product. And so there if you think about it to sell an insurance product, you need to be licensed. So we have quite a few sales counselors that needed to obtain that license. So that may take a little bit longer, I'd say to stabilize and grow, but I'd expect in the back half of twenty twenty five, that's back to growing at pretty traditional growth levels.

Speaker 2

So that's the reason and Scott, there's really no other I think people want to be protected and we're going to provide a great insurance product, a better insurance product than we had before.

Speaker 4

Thanks for all the color, Tom.

Operator

And our next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 6

I was hoping you could dig into this new insurance relationship and maybe given, like you said, some of the changes in selling and products and organization, maybe talk about the lower efficiency that you might have had here near term and what kind of delta you could have in the sales force as you go into next year and things are a little bit more settled, so to speak?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, Tobey, like we said, if you look back historically, if you take cemetery, we grow in the low to mid single digits. I think core funeral, we'd expect to be able to get back to that low to mid single digit. And when you look at SCI Direct because of the way it sells, traditionally it's probably more like a mid single to potentially high single digit type of growth production. And again, I think those are going to phase in at different times.

Speaker 2

I would expect SCI Direct to take a little more time because of the whole licensing complication. But all of this, like I said, we chose to take this pause, if you will. And we've if you think about SCI Direct, we're losing somewhere close to what Eric, dollars 11,000,000 $12,000,000 of profitability historically by having some of these changes. The good news is really setting ourselves up for some tremendous growth. And when you think about SCI Direct, we're going to be deferring we delivered merchandise before we're not going to deliver it anymore once we're done.

Speaker 2

So a contract out of the backlog of SEI Direct preneed going at need might have been $1200 It's going to be it's going to grow to $2,500 $3,000 You're going to begin to see these contracts flow through funeral operations and have a natural growth pattern because we have such a tremendous backlog. So again, it's temporary. I think from a sales production perspective back to those low to mid single digit on the core side and mid to high when you think about SEI Direct functioning on all cylinders.

Speaker 6

Thanks. The acquisitions were pretty sizable in the quarter. Does the pipeline remain strong? And are you on this post COVID period, are you seeing mom and pops sort of more willing to sell? Do you have an expectation with this trend to continue?

Speaker 3

Yes, Tobey, this is Eric. I think we continue to be excited about the pipeline in the industry. I think every seller's decision is a little bit different and I don't think I could kind of generalize it just talk about COVID. But I think there's a good healthy pipeline of the type of independence and acquisition opportunities that we'd be very interested in. A lot of that is major metropolitan areas, it's larger combination facilities, those types of things.

Speaker 3

So what we're excited about, that's what we were able to close on during this particular quarter. Those deals have been in the pipeline for a while and we're very glad to have them, but there's more to come. I think the official guidance is going back to the $75,000,000 to $125,000,000 spend next year like I said in the remarks. But we certainly hope to be at the high end or even exceed it next year like we did this year. But it ebbs and flows.

Speaker 3

And a lot of that is the seller's decision, not necessarily our decision on when we want to do it. But when the seller does raise the hand and are ready for liquidity event, as you can tell, we have a significant amount, dollars 1,500,000,000 of liquidity that we're able to move very quickly, very fast in a favorable environment.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Operator

And the next question comes from Joanna Gajuk with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. So maybe first, just clarification on the comment on the funeral loans next year to be flattish. That's organic, isn't it?

Speaker 2

Yes. That's same store organic, yes, cotton. Okay.

Speaker 7

Right. Exactly. Because we're just talking about all these acquisitions. So I just want to clarify that. I guess, two other questions.

Speaker 7

So when you talk about switching to cemetery, you talked about this large preneed sales had tough comp and then I guess the Rose Hills, some limitations there. Can you talk about these large pre sales compared to 2019? So I understand last year was very active. And also when thinking about these large sales, are those delayed? Is there any indications that these clients might come back in Q4?

Speaker 2

Yes. So if you go back to 2019, my memory serves me, it's we're probably around $100,000,000 annually in large sale production. And now we're running at a rate of close to 160, 170. So when you think about pre COVID, we've had 60%, 70% type of growth. And that's why I tried to say in the comments, even though we're down year over year and we can get down on ourselves, we're really operating at a very high rate.

Speaker 2

Now a lot of that's because we've taken the concept of these beautiful high end gardens in the states and we've put that in different parts of the country. We've got a great team that's developing that inventory price and that inventory training. So we've been able to expand the places to do it. Now, road sales I go back to, it's probably 25% of our high end production every year. So that's why why do we bring it up because it's big and if it's down, it's hard to overcome.

Speaker 2

It's a good problem to have, take it every week. So that's we're operating I'd say again at a very high level and I'd expect those type of levels to continue Joanna as we look forward. We're seeing deals out there. So there's nothing that we believe is going to impede at this time our ability to execute that. Just a tough comparison for 2nd and third quarter and have another tough one by the way in the Q4, but beyond that feel really good.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's good color. Thank you. And I guess on funeral margins, right, so they improved nicely from Q2 especially, and this 19% in this quarter is much better than, call it, 16% in 2019 in the Q3, right, because that tends to be lower. So is this, I guess, a new runway?

Speaker 7

And I guess, is this already benefiting from this new insurance contract? So how should we think about kind of full year funeral margins considering the benefits of this new insurance contract?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, a lot of the improvements that you're referring to back to 2019 is really from the core business and from SCI Direct. It really has nothing to do with their latency. We're seeing a little bit of that in the quarter helping us. We didn't anticipate that it'll be a much bigger factor to the positive when you think about funeral margins in 2025.

Speaker 2

So we'd anticipate our margins to go up. Again, maybe 100 basis points, 150 basis points is a fair way to think about if we execute the way that we think we can in 2025.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. If I may squeeze last one on funeral, the cremation shift, where it was only 40 bps, that's, I guess, 4th consecutive quarter of that shift being below what you had been describing previously, being like a trend of 100, 150. So is that enough to call it a new trend? As in are we kind of in the new paradigm where maybe that shift headwind is smaller now?

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 2

We debate that internally all the time. I think my personal opinion is it does ebb and flow. I still I'm not sure maybe 150 basis points that we used to say is not in the reality realm anymore, but I still think it could be 100 basis points a year. Some of that just the fact that we have so much cremation now in order to move the needle, it takes quite a bit. It's just a large base of business.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from A. J. Wright with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, everybody.

Speaker 5

A couple of questions, if

Speaker 8

I could. So the anticipation that volumes might start to trend a little more positive, obviously, we've been through a period of time where the forecast has been flat to down on add and need volumes. Any what would you say is underpinning your thoughts that we'll start to see that turn more positive?

Speaker 2

I think it's a combination of things, A. J, but first and foremost is, I just think the pull forward effect lessens every year as we model that out that it's going to get smaller and smaller as we go forward. And then the second thing is, again, the population has grown, demographics are shifting that direction. We feel like we're competing pretty aggressively in our markets. We've got a great preneed backlog.

Speaker 2

So all these things kind of roll into our thinking, but the biggest one probably is that is that the pull forward effect just continues to diminish as we model it out. Now it doesn't go away, but we overcome it with the other things that I mentioned.

Speaker 8

And just to think about, I haven't asked you about this in a while, but with some of the volatility in volumes this year and also frankly on the cemetery production side, when you think about that pull forward dynamic, the lingering effects of COVID, either and how it might affect the demand for preneed cemetery property sales or in the atneed funeral sign? Have you changed your thinking? What's the updated thinking versus what you guys laid out at your Investor Day a couple of years ago about the pull forward effect and where we're at in all of that?

Speaker 2

No, Ajay, I think it's kind of trending the way we think. And I think when you have a little less volume on the funeral side, we'd anticipate a little less leads when you think about kind of the core funeral sale. It shouldn't impact large sales going on, but more along the lines of the core business, You just have less leads to follow-up on. I think the correlation is like 53%, 54%. And that's been true for really the last 10 years.

Speaker 2

So there's definitely that. So that's why we feel if we say volumes going to flatten out, that makes us feel better about cemetery sales production, particularly as it relates to good leads that we get through our atneed business.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. And then on the acquisitions, the step up in pace there, it sounded like maybe some of these transactions are in markets where you already have a presence, which will presumably make them potentially even more accretive than just an outright purchase. Is that true? Can you talk about pricing ability to contribute? Is that part of your comfort with expressing a return to sort of the high end of the growth targets, what you've seen on acquisitions more recently?

Speaker 3

The growth target itself, acquisitions will be a piece to that. And obviously, when you're able to spend money that's well above $160,000,000 $170,000,000 not sure what we will close before year end. So it could be a little bit higher, A. J, versus the target of roughly a midpoint of 100. That's going to have a nice accretive perspective in these deals.

Speaker 3

You can assume and we're precluded in some of these contracts to talk too much about it right now in terms of it. But you can assume as I mentioned that they're in major markets. And as you and I and many others have talked about before, there are definitely some cost synergies that we're able to apply to that. But for the most part, these are good businesses that had good revenue streams and there's no need and no desire to go in and change any type of the top line dynamics whatsoever. And a lot of these owners are still involved and they're expected to continue to do more of the same and there won't be adjustments moving forward from that perspective.

Speaker 3

We're just happy to have these very high quality businesses, especially in tuck in situations, which as you said, makes it more ultimately accretive for our shareholders.

Speaker 8

Great. And then maybe last thing, we don't often ask you about this, but intra quarter there was an announcement about some management changes, updates, etcetera. Any perspective you can provide us on what you guys are doing there?

Speaker 2

Yes. This is as you well know, a lot of companies in the same way, but I think we've taken it very seriously with the Board, succession planning because inevitably it's going to occur. And with Steve's wanting to take a step back and as he approaches retirement, that kind of triggered a lot of decisions, but it was pretty easy to do because we had a succession plan. And so, we're excited about the elevated responsibilities for the executives that we named in there and think it's going to add a lot of value in different perspectives. So, I think the whole company is excited about it.

Speaker 2

And again, I don't think there's any big surprises. These are we're part of a long term plan we've been working on for quite some time.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

And the next question comes from Parker Smyrna with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Yes, this is Parker on for John Ransom. And sorry if I ask anything that was hit on, I missed the beginning of the call. But the preneed cemetery selling, I know you noted the lower end consumer is kind of holding in there flat year over year. I know you guys have done some changes over the past couple of years or maybe just loosening some of the payment terms on some of those contracts.

Speaker 5

What would you, I guess, attribute the lower end stability to? Is it this kind of core resilience in the lower end consumer? Is it some of the loosening of the payment terms? Is there anything else that you would note just on that segment?

Speaker 3

There is not any type of loosening of payment terms or anything along those lines. There's really not even unusual incentives that are in there that are creating a situation where it's compressing the margin of these sales. There's some pull forward effect going on as we've said, and we'll continue to grow. We need that volume to help us as the number one lead source. And we think we'll continue to get a little bit better on that as we've already said going from down 2% -ish to maybe flattish next year will help that help our sales counselors get in front of more customers.

Speaker 3

But there's not any type of changing of terms or incentives or anything along those lines that's occurring in these situations. We're here for the long term and we're not panicking at all in the short term. We feel very good about the future, especially at Green Aid Cemetery.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then late in Q3, early Q4, there was obviously some big hurricanes down in Florida. I know you guys have decent amount of exposure in Florida and the Southeast. Did you see any impact kind of late in Q3, early Q4, whether it be on funeral volumes or some of the preneed selling activity?

Speaker 3

Well, anything to do with funeral volumes is really just kind of a delay, right? I mean, something that was going to happen 1 week would need to happen the next week. We did have, I'd say a shutdown of a week or 10 days essentially related to those particular markets, Western Florida going all the way across Florida as well, related to preneed cemetery. But ultimately, we bounce back from that as well. Maybe there's a little bit of, call it a penny or 2 for the quarter of a headwind related to it.

Speaker 3

But as a general statement, the businesses are resilient. Most importantly for us as a management team, our associates ended up okay and their houses and such and their personal situations, which we're very concerned about and we're very pleased that we pulled together and we're able to manage through it the way that we did.

Speaker 7

Okay. And if I

Speaker 5

can just get one last one. Yes, just more of a high level question on acquisitions. When you're acquiring these smaller kind of regional or mom and pop operators, what types of things are you doing when you're going through the integration process? I'm assuming it's things like overlaying some of your preneed selling, integrating the tech platform. And how should we think about some of the synergies that you're able to realize on these deals and maybe the effective multiple or how you're able to work down the purchase multiple down to the effective multiple over a course of a few years when you're doing these acquisitions?

Speaker 3

Well, what I was saying before is, the multiples really haven't changed. It's the pipeline that's filling and we're still paying very fair multiples. You can call that kind of 8 to 10 times EBITDA pre synergies. I think we get a turn pretty quick for some of the synergies we have just based on our scale. We have both local scale within a market, especially a major market and we have national scale with the purchasing power of the size of our company being by far the largest in the industry.

Speaker 3

So that's going to get you something right away, almost a turn right away. And the rest of the things are really talking about new revenue streams that we had that maybe an independent didn't or better ways to go about utilizing our sales force CRM processes and some of the other things that were utilized in technology that made us so much better and more efficient out of COVID. But for the most part, the underlying businesses and the revenue streams are very solid and we're not going in and adjusting those or call in different plays, especially in the situations which we're most happy where a lot of these former owners have stayed on and become part of our management team, which helps it to be even more of an accretive situation over the long term with their leadership staying with SEI.

Speaker 5

All right, great. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to SCI management for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you everybody for being on the call today. Happy Halloween and we will speak to you at our Q4 earnings call in February. Thanks so much.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Redfin Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads