Canadian Natural Resources Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 31, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. We'd like to welcome everyone to Canadian Natural's 20 24 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, October 31, 2024, at 9 am Mountain Time.

Operator

I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Kasdan, Manager of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Natural's Q3 2024 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you of our forward looking statements. And it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and we report our reserves and production before royalties. Also, I would suggest to review our advisory section in our financial statements that includes comments on non GAAP disclosures.

Speaker 1

Speaking on today's call will be Scott South, our President and Mark Sainthorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Scott will provide highlights of our strong operational quarter and include some asset specific production records and top tier operating costs. Mark will then summarize our financial results that includes robust adjusted funds flow, earnings and returns to shareholders. To close, Scott will summarize prior to open up the line for questions. With that, over to you, Scott.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lance, and good morning, everyone. Our unique and diverse asset base provides us with a competitive advantage as we can allocate capital to the highest return projects without being reliant on any one commodity. Our consistent and top tier results are driven by safe and reliable operations. Our commitment to continuous improvement is supported by strong team culture in all areas of our company that focus on improving our cost, driving execution of growth opportunities and increasing value to shareholders. We achieved strong average production of approximately 1,363,000 BOEs in the 3rd quarter consisting of 1,022,000 barrels of liquids and over 2 Bcf of natural gas.

Speaker 2

Our world class oil sands, mining and upgrading assets delivered strong results in the quarter, including a record monthly production of approximately 529,000 barrels per day of SCO in August. Importantly, these assets continue to deliver strong operational performance and high utilization rates, which resulted in top tier quarterly operating costs of $20.67 per barrel in the Q3. Subsequent to the quarter end on October 7, we announced an agreement with Chevron Canada Limited to acquire their 20% interest in AOSP, which includes the Muskegon River and Jack Pine Mines, the Scotford Upgrader and the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage Facility. This acquisition will bring Canadian Natural's total current working interest in AOSP to 90% and is targeted to add approximately 62,500 barrels per day of long life, no decline SCO production to the company. In addition, Canadian Natural also agreed to acquire Chevron's 70 percent operated working interest of light crude oil and liquid rich assets in the Duvernay play in Alberta.

Speaker 2

These assets are targeted to average approximately 1,000 BOEs per day in 2025 and provide the opportunity for meaningful near term growth while contributing additional free cash flow. The effective date for these acquisitions is September 1, 2024 and are targeted to close in the Q4 of 2024. Additionally, commencing December 1, 2024, in support of our long term strategy of targeting expanded refining markets, driving stronger netbacks and reducing exposure to crude oil egress constraints, we will increase our contracted crude oil transportation capacity on TMX by 75,000 barrels per day to 169,000 barrels per day. I will now run through our Q3 operational results. On the conventional side of the business, primary heavy oil production averaged approximately 76,800 barrels per day in the 3rd quarter, which is a 1% increase compared to the production volumes in the Q3 of 2023, reflecting strong results for multilateral wells on our extensive heavy oil land base, which is the largest in Canada and includes the Manville and Clearwater Fairways.

Speaker 2

As a result of optimized longer well designs and the technical expertise of our teams, we continue to see excellent results from our multilateral wells, driven by our culture of continuous improvement. In the 1st 9 months of 2024, we drilled 76 net multilateral wells, maintaining top tier average initial peak rates of approximately 2 30 barrels per day per well, an increase of approximately 30% compared to our budget average initial peak rates of 175 barrels per day per well. Primary heavy oil operating cost averaged $18.69 in the quarter, which is down 5% from the Q3 of 2023, primarily reflecting lower operating costs. Our Pelican Lake production averaged approximately 45,100 barrels per day in the quarter, which is down 4% from the Q3 of 'twenty 3, reflecting low field declines from this long life asset. Operating costs at Pelican were $8.74 per barrel in the 3rd quarter, a 9% increase compared to the Q3 of 2023, which was primarily due to higher maintenance activities in the quarter, partially offset by lower energy costs.

Speaker 2

North American light crude oil and NGL production averaged approximately 106,300 barrels per day in the Q3, which is down 3% from the Q3 of 2023. The decrease was primarily the result of temporary processing facility outages and rail transportation restrictions offset by strong drilling results. Operating costs in our late crude oil and NGLs averaged $13.73 in the Q3, a decrease of 11% compared to the Q3 of 2023 due to lower energy costs. North American natural gas production averaged 2 Bcf during the Q3, a decrease of 5% compared to the Q3 of 2023, primarily reflecting previous announced deferrals of natural gas on stream timing in response to natural gas pricing, the impacts of heat and wildfire conditions in Q3 of 2024 and natural fuel declines. This decrease in production was partially offset by strong results from our Montney and Deep Basin wells.

Speaker 2

Operating costs on our North American natural gas averaged $1.23 per Mcf in the 3rd quarter, comparable to Q3 a year ago. As we outlined in the Q1 results, we reallocated capital from certain dry natural gas development activity to multilateral heavy oil wells. Due to continued low natural gas prices in 'twenty four, we are further reducing dry natural gas drilling capital. We now target drilling a total of 74 net natural gas wells, 17 fewer compared to the 2024 budget. Our 2024 corporate annual natural gas guidance of 2.12 Bcf to 2.23 Bcf remains unchanged.

Speaker 2

In our thermal in situ operations, we achieved strong thermal production in the quarter, averaging just over 271,500 barrels per day. This is down 5% from the Q3 of 2023, primarily due to the cyclical nature of production from CSS pads at Primrose and natural field declines, partially offset by thermal pad ad developments at Kirby and Jackfish. 3rd quarter thermal in situ operating cost averaged $10.52 a barrel, which is down 8% compared to the Q3 of 2023, primarily reflecting lower energy At Jackfish, we achieved record quarterly production of approximately 128,000 barrels a day in Q3, primarily due to strong results from pad additions and effective and efficient operations. Additionally, we are currently drilling the SEGD pad of Jackfish with production from this pad targeted to come on in Q3 of next year. At Primrose, we are targeting to bring off a CSS pad on production in Q4 of 'twenty four, which is ahead of schedule.

Speaker 2

A second CSS pad has been drilled and is also targeted to come on production ahead of schedule in Q1 'twenty five. This pad was originally budgeted to come on in Q2 of 2025. At Kirby North, we began solvent injection in June of 2024 and all eight wells are now injecting solvent. Early results have been positive with SOR reductions of approximately 30% trending towards a targeted reduction of 40% to 50%. Solven recoveries are in excess of 85% and are meeting expectations.

Speaker 2

As the project advances, we will continue to monitor SORs, solid recovery and production trends. In our oil sands mining and upgrading operations, 3rd quarter SCO production averaged approximately 498,000 barrels per day, an increase of approximately 7,000 barrels per day compared to the Q3 of 2023. The increase in production for the Q3 included planned turnaround activities at the non operated Scotford Upgrader, which began on September 9 and were successfully completed on October 18. Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading achieved a new monthly production record of approximately 529,000 barrels per day of SCO in August of this year. This was primarily due to high utilization at both Horizon and AOSP as well as the completion of the reliability enhancement project at Horizon during our planned turnaround in the Q2.

Speaker 2

Operating costs in oil sands mining and upgrading assets are top tier, averaging $20.67 per barrel in the Q3, a 7% decrease compared to the Q3 of 2023. This primarily reflects higher production volumes from reduced planned turnaround activity and lower energy costs. The Scotford Upgrader, the planned turnaround was executed in 40 days relative to the original budget of 49 days, while achieving higher utilization rates during that 40 day window. As a result of the annual net production impact from AOSP from the Q3 turnaround activities is 5,400 barrels per day, a significant improvement compared to the budgeted annual net production impact of 11,000 barrels per day. A debottleneck project was completed during the Scotford turnaround, which increases the total gross capacity by 8,000 barrels a day.

Speaker 2

Upon closing of the acquisition of Chevron's 20% interest at AOST, the capacity net to Canadian Natural increases to 7,200 barrels per day. The debottleneck project was completed during the Scotford turnaround, which increases gross capacity 8,000 barrels per day. Upon closing, Chevron's 20 percent interest, the capacity net to Canadian Natural increases to 7,200 barrels per day. Canadian Natural is delivering top tier free cash flow generation, which is unique and sustainable and robust and clearly demonstrates our ability to both economically grow the business and deliver returns to shareholders by balancing our 4 pillars of capital allocation. With that, I will now turn it over to Mark for financial review.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 3

In the Q3, our strong operational execution led to excellent financial results. We generated adjusted funds flow of $3,900,000,000 and adjusted net earnings from operations of 2,100,000,000 This drove significant returns to shareholders in the quarter totaling $1,900,000,000 with approximately $1,100,000,000 in dividends and $740,000,000 in share buybacks through our NCIB program. Year to date, up to and including yesterday, October 30, we have distributed significant value to shareholders, totaling approximately $6,700,000,000 including our sustainable and growing dividend and share buybacks. Given our strong financial position and significant and sustainable free cash flow generation, as previously announced, the Board of Directors has agreed to increase the quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.5625 per share payable at the next regular quarterly dividend payment in January 2025. This will mark 2025 as the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases by Canadian Natural with a compound annual growth rate of 21% over that time.

Speaker 3

This increase in the quarterly dividend demonstrates the confidence the Board of Directors has in the company's world class assets and its ability to generate significant and sustainable free cash flow. Our financial position is very strong with net debt at $9,300,000,000 and debt to EBITDA at 0.6 times at the end of Q3 2024. Liquidity remains strong and including revolving bank facilities and cash liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately 6,200,000,000 dollars Subsequent to quarter end and as previously announced in connection with the agreement to acquire assets from Chevron, we obtained a fully committed $4,000,000,000 non revolving term loan facility. We have also extended the maturity of our $2,425,000,000 revolving credit facility from June 2025 to June 2028. Our asset base is underpinned by top tier long life low decline assets, a strong balance sheet and safe, effective and efficient operations, all of which combine to provide us with unique competitive advantages in terms of capital efficiency, flexibility and sustainability, driving strong returns on capital.

Speaker 4

With that, I'll turn it back

Speaker 3

to You Scott for some final comments.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mark. In summary, our consistent and reliable results are underpinned by safe and reliable operations. Our commitment to continuous improvement is driven by strong team culture in all areas of our company that focus on improving our cost, strong execution of growth opportunities and increasing value to shareholders. So with that, I'll turn it over for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Dennis Fong with CIBC World Market. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Also congratulations on another strong quarter. First question here is just on Horizon and frankly the oil sands mining and operations. Obviously, a really strong August as you highlighted in your comments.

Speaker 4

Just curious as we go into next year in 2025, can you talk towards a little bit of the potential of cost savings with the lack of turnaround at Horizon as well as some of the improvements in terms of runtime and productive capacity that you've been able to unlock with the 2 assets?

Speaker 2

Right. Well, in terms of cost at Horizon, you could look at that when we're doing in a non turnaround year, you'd estimate the savings to be in around $75,000,000 Dennis. In terms of the utilization, we can see that we're having strong production results coming out of that completion of the reliability project. We'll continue to focus on that going into next year. In terms of other costs at Horizon and AOSP, our teams continuously focus on areas for improvement through basic continuous improvement projects.

Speaker 2

So we're just going to stay focused on our base business there in oil sands mining and optimizing production and working to reduce costs.

Speaker 4

Great. Great. I appreciate that context there. My second question and just turning my attention towards the thermal in situ projects. Obviously, a lot of things going on there and obviously strong production at Jackfish.

Speaker 4

I was just curious, I know in the 2024 budget you guys mentioned Pike as Phase 1 as an opportunity that you guys were looking into a little bit more. Can you talk towards any progress you've made? I think drilling and pipeline work was started in late 2024. Is that still on the docket? And how are you thinking about that project?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good question, Dennis. And yes, the Pipe 1 project involves the pipeline running from the pipeline area to be tied back into our jackfish facilities. That work has commenced. We'll continue on with that pipeline activity into 2025 along with drilling our first pads and that's the plan for 2025.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks. I'll turn it back.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thanks so much. And one of the keys to C and Q story over time has been continuous progress around costs. And so just curious in a lower commodity price environment, what are the opportunities to capture cost and capital efficiency? And in that spirit, any early thoughts on how 2025 budgets could play out?

Speaker 2

Well, I think it's just really important as we always do, Neil, to focus on overall optimization of our production. The more we can optimize our production, the better impact that has on our overall operating costs. Our low operating cost structure is top tier and it certainly allows for significant free cash flow in low commodity cycles. In terms of continuous improvement activities, I can tell you that every single year, our teams come up with projects that are new to work on finding efficiencies, working with our vendors and our suppliers to help reduce costs, become more efficient and effective. So it's an ongoing program that we've been utilizing for many, many years and we're going to continue to focus on that, Neil.

Speaker 5

And just thoughts on 25 as we kind of bridge from the 5,400 this year into next year. What are some moving pieces that we need to keep in mind, recognizing you can give us some more clarity here in the coming days?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, Neil, you can look for us to come out closer to year end here with our budget for next year. So we're still working through all the details, prioritizing our projects that drive the best returns. So we're going to be focused on that and we're working through that right now. So I don't have any additional details to provide you at this time.

Speaker 5

All right. Well, thank you. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 1

Please go ahead. Yes. Thank you. Thanks for the rundown, guys. I was wondering if you could just maybe dig a little bit into the solvent pilot commercial pilot.

Speaker 1

I guess you're running at Kirby North. And so I guess you're seeing as you indicate, you're seeing great results and so on. If this is successful, is this something that you would sort of apply on a go forward basis? I'm trying to get a sense as to how much of a broader application is this something that you could use a jack fish on new pads and so forth? Or how limited maybe is the scope of this if it is commercial?

Speaker 2

Yes, Greg. So again, still early stages in terms of seeing the results. So far, I agree. And as we stated, they're very positive. We still need some time to work through that.

Speaker 2

I'm expecting that we'll feel more confident in terms of the overall results as time goes on here. Looking into June of 2025, it will be a full year of run time. So we'll have a lot more meaningful numbers. If you look forward to the future under your circumstance that looking for adding solvents to future pad adds, it fits well with future development because it helps the total steam requirements of the area. And so you'd apply that we'd look at applying that to future pad adds in Kirby and Jackfish as we move forward and look towards bringing potentially bringing reserves forward with that type of concept of solvent injection.

Speaker 1

Okay. Okay. Thanks very much for that. And then haven't really dug into the numbers on some of this, but just with respect to OpEx at Horizon AOSP, I mean, very good operating costs. I'm just wondering how much of that was due to just very high run rates versus the pullback in AECO pricing.

Speaker 1

Just trying to get a sense as to how enduring the operating cost is that we saw in the Q3?

Speaker 2

Yes. Greg, it's a bit of both actually. So very strong volumes as you noted. Acre prices are certainly lower. And as you know, we the great thing about Canadian Naturals, we do have a natural hedge in terms of our overall gas production because of our fuel gas requirements in our thermal and oil sands mining developments.

Speaker 2

So it's a little bit of both, Greg. I don't have the exact breakdown here for you at this moment, but they're both significant. Understood.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning. So my first question is, can you help us remind what's your all in breakeven for WTI with dividend? And then if you could provide some insights as you get these Chevron assets and integrate them and there are synergy benefits, does that move that breakeven in any direction once those assets are fully integrated?

Speaker 3

Hi, Manav, it's Mark. There's a lot of different assumptions that go into the breakeven, but when I look at it, we're somewhere in the low 40s WTI in that neighborhood. Of course, when you bring on these new assets with free cash flow coming with them, you probably have a modest benefit to it. When you look at the overall decline rate of the company today we set it at probably 11%. And of course that's what drives low maintenance capital and ability to cover that as well as a dividend as well as our dividend in a lower commodity price environment.

Speaker 6

Perfect. My second question is a little more on the international side. Sometimes we tend to bucket them together, but the portfolio on the offshore Africa actually has growth and stuff, while North Sea is kind of more in a decline. So how would you say those two assets are slightly different from each other? One has growth and while other one is kind of more in a decline?

Speaker 2

Right. Yes. So as you're alluding to the North Sea is on a decline production and will continue toward cessation of production as time goes on here. We have an extensive abandonment programs in place over the next several years. And then offshore West Africa, yes, potential future development opportunities exist in that area as well.

Speaker 2

And yes, so it's again, it's not a significant portion of our portfolio in terms of production, but we certainly have benefited from the significant cash flow that's come from those areas over the past few decades.

Speaker 6

Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Menno Khosov with Tony David Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks

Speaker 7

and good morning everyone. I'll start with a question on the Chevron transaction where you talked about the Duvernay competing for capital with the Montney, which didn't surprise everybody, but it did surprise some people. So the question is, were there specific parts of the Montney that you had in mind is competing head to head with the Duvernay for capital? And on a related note, how does the Clearwater currently stack up with those two plays?

Speaker 2

Yes. If you look at the Duvernay, Menno, in terms of the acquisition, the average liquids rate is in the range of 46%. So from that perspective, it's very comparable with the Montney because of the high liquids production, so resulting in strong capital efficiency numbers. And if you're looking at in terms of comparison to Clearwater and the Manville, very comparable in terms of overall economics from our Mandeville and our Clearwater as well. So the great thing about Canadian Natural is we have these great assets that can deliver significant free cash flow.

Speaker 2

And so certainly where our focus is going to be going forward here.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks for that, Scott. And then second question is on Basin Idris. You've made a pretty big push on that front. You have new commitments on TMX Flanagan South, which was announced a while back and even a bit more on Keystone.

Speaker 7

How much of that is a function of your own internal growth aspirations versus opportunistically taking it on simply because it's available like we probably sell with PetroChina? And more generally, how are you thinking about the West Coast and Gulf Coast as competing markets for your barrels given current market dynamics?

Speaker 2

I think it's a little bit of both, Menno. But certainly, when you take a look at the opportunities off the West Coast to further expand and diversify to additional refining destinations, that provides a significant forward looking opportunity for us. So it helps the basin maintain very competitive heavy oil netbacks, stabilizes the market more so than it ever was before. And then just in terms of you look at our portfolio of development, it certainly helps secure those barrels, which might otherwise be potentially an egress constraint situation under those circumstances. So it's a really good opportunity for us, strategic from that perspective, and we look to further enhance our netbacks as we go forward.

Speaker 7

Thank you. I'll turn it back.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick O'Rourke with ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning guys and thank you for taking my question. I guess, maybe a little bit further to Meadow's question there and maybe specific to the $75,000 on TMX. If I were to look at that pipe today and it's just based on the fiscal report, broker reports we see, transport is slightly off market relative to the regulated toll. And I'm just wondering if you can give any more color with respect to that deal. Is it sort of at the market at the regulated toll or are there any other aspects to that?

Speaker 2

Yes, Patrick. So I can tell you that it is very similar to our existing contract that we have for 94,000 barrels a day. So it turns essentially same from that perspective. So that's why it was a good fit for us, but probably more importantly, securing those barrels the opportunity to have achieved stronger pricing either through deliveries to West Coast and California or further Asian markets. So it's a good opportunity for us from those perspectives in total.

Speaker 8

Great. And then sort of shifting gears and thinking about capital allocation here, obviously, you've taken on a little bit more leverage to get the AOSP, Chevron and Duvernay assets in there. Just wondering with where the balance sheet sits today, with your view on sort of the opportunity set out there, what would the appetite for further M and A be from here for CNQ?

Speaker 2

Yes. Patrick, it's a good question. But I think if you look at overall position of our company, we do have great assets and we will continue to look at opportunities as we have in the past in areas where assets may come up for sales or good fit into our core areas. We will look at them like we always have in the past and history states that. So we'll remain with that forward looking view and just ensuring that any acquisition we do to Patrick, we do a really good job of maximizing the value for the company and our shareholders.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

I'll now turn the call back over to Lance Katzen for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. If you have any questions, please give us a call. Thanks and have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect.

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