Peabody Energy Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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October 31, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Peabody Energy Third Quarter 20 24 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carla Kimrey, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thanks for joining Peabody's earnings call for the Q3 of 2024. With me today are President and CEO, Jim Grech CFO, Mark Sperbeck and our Chief Marketing Officer, Malcolm Roberts. Within the earnings release, you will find our statement on forward looking information as well as a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there along with our public filings with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Carla, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join us today and for your interest in Peabody. In the Q3, Peabody achieved solid performance across all segments with notable results in both the seaborne thermal and U. S. Thermal segments.

Speaker 2

We completed $100,000,000 in share repurchases during the quarter, bringing our total repurchases for the year to $180,000,000 This is a reflection of our continued commitment to returning value to our shareholders. Earlier this month, I hope you were able to participate in our Centurion presentation. If not, I encourage you to view it on our website. At Centurion, we continue to make significant progress towards starting longwall production in the first quarter of 2026. Thus far, we have produced 1st development coal and commissioned 2 continuous miner units.

Speaker 2

The prep plant washed its 1st coal in September and we have scheduled our 1st customer shipment for the 4th quarter. As Centurion continues to exceed budgeted development rates, we've had to accelerate the CapEx spend roughly $30,000,000 as a result of the rapid pace of development. Now moving on to our operating segments. Overall, our 3rd quarter operational results aligned with our forecast and our mines continue to perform safely. Seaborne thermal demand continues to grow and pricing remains stable.

Speaker 2

We shipped higher than expected export volumes and strong production from Wilpinion. As part of our ongoing commitment to maximizing value from our portfolio, we have reevaluated the timeline to closure for the Wambo underground mine. While initially expecting to run until mid-twenty 26, we have determined that it makes better financial sense to bring forward the mines closure to mid-twenty 25 due to some challenging geological conditions. In 2025, the Wambo underground mine is expected to produce approximately 800,000 tons, which is nearly 400,000 tons less than in 2024. In our seaborne metallurgical segment, we made the opportunistic decision to withhold nearly 90,000 tons of shipments at Shoal Creek during the period of challenging logistics and weak spot prices in the Q3.

Speaker 2

The Holt lock on the Warrior River, which has been closed for unscheduled repairs is now operational. Spot prices have improved and we expect shipments of Shoal Creek coal to substantially improve in the Q4. The PRB experienced a slow start to the low natural gas prices, but volumes picked up in the Q3. Shipments exceeded expectations due to higher than anticipated customer nominations and improved rail performance. Operationally, our PRB mines continue their effective cost management on material, repairs and labor spend.

Speaker 2

Other U. S. Thermal shipments and costs were in line with expectations despite low customer nominations. At our 20 mile mine, we'll temporarily see lower yield and productivity as the mine has been experiencing some geological challenges, but we anticipate returning to normal operating conditions in the Q1 of 2025. Overall, we are very proud of our operations performance this quarter.

Speaker 2

Now I'll turn it over to Malcolm Roberts, our Chief Marketing Officer, who will be delivering our outlook on the markets today. Malcolm?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim. Seaborne thermal pricing remained resilient during the quarter. Demand for thermal coal continues to grow and this growth is Asia centric. In Australia, the Newcastle high energy thermal market experienced strong restocking demand from the Asia Pacific region to support spot pricing throughout the quarter, pricing averaging $140 per metric ton. And thermal coal imports in Asia increased year on year with India leading at 12% growth followed by China at 8% and North Asia at 2%.

Speaker 3

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency published its annual World Energy Outlook, a comprehensive review of the likely paths of supply and demand for fossil fuels and renewable sources of energy. Within this context, the agency estimates that coal consumption in 2,030 will now be 6% higher than their 2023 forecast. To put this into perspective, the 2024 increase of forecast demand is comparable to the total coal consumption of Japan. Within the seaborne metallurgical coal market, premium hard coking coal fell to $180 per ton in early September for the first time since June 2021. Weak steel demand was the key driver.

Speaker 3

The global steel market presents thin profit margins as steel exports from China accelerated. These elevated levels of steel export weighed on steelmakers globally. Met coal demand was stifled by production cuts at blast furnaces around the world, redirecting term contract cargoes into the spot market. India was unable to absorb this extra spot volume, which has meant that China has resumed its position as the clearing market for spot cargoes. During late September, China announced stimulus measures improving sentiment.

Speaker 3

Market anticipation of improved demand and lower Chinese steel exports strengthened steel pricing, encouraging steelmakers to ramp up production. This has had a direct impact on steelmaking raw materials such as metallurgical coal. And as a result, pricing has shown some recent improvement. Overall, the market for metallurgical coal remains finally balanced and exposed to volatility, influenced by the rate of exports from Australia and economic performance in China. In the United States, electricity generation continues to grow with the grid load increasing by 3% from 2023 levels on a year to date basis.

Speaker 3

Total South PRB coal production volume increased by 33% during the quarter compared to quarter 2, with a total production volume of 51,200,000 tonnes. Peabody's South PRB share of total production in Q3 was 43% compared to 38% for the same quarter last year. Generally, the current market dynamic continues to be challenged by comparatively low natural gas prices. I'll now turn it over to Mark to cover the financial details.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Malcolm. It's nice to be here with everyone this morning. In the Q3, Peabody recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $101,300,000 or $0.74 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $224,800,000 Operating cash flow of $360,000,000 reflects a favorable reduction in working capital, resulting in available free cash flow of $263,200,000 for the quarter. During the quarter, we completed the previously announced $100,000,000 share buyback, repurchasing nearly 4 5,000,000 shares at an average price of $22.55 per share. At September 30, we had $773,000,000 of cash and today declared another $0.075 per share dividend.

Speaker 2

Turning to the segment results. Seaborne Thermal recorded $120,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA, dollars 16,000,000 better than the prior quarter. Both Wilpanyang and Mambo increased production and reported lower costs quarter over quarter, resulting in segment costs below guidance at $47 per ton. Together with a $7 increase in realized export prices, segment EBITDA margin increased to 38%. Production exceeded sales by 300,000 tons, increasing previously expected 4th quarter sales volumes.

Speaker 2

The Seaborne Metallurgical segment generated approximately $28,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA. As Malcolm mentioned, benchmark coal prices fell to their lowest point since 2021 and there was a particularly weak market for spot sales. Shoal Creek shipped only 125,000 tons in the quarter as we opportunistically limited spot sales and avoided higher transportation costs due to the Holt lock outage. Metrop had an outstanding quarter and made up for the lower sales volumes at Shoal Creek, keeping the segment in line with previous guidance at 1,700,000 tons. With the whole block out is resolved, we expect higher production in sales from Shoal Creek this quarter as reflected in 4th quarter guidance.

Speaker 2

The U. S. Thermal mines produced $80,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, dollars 27,000,000 better than the 2nd quarter. U. S.

Speaker 2

Thermal operations shipped 26,100,000 tons and realized an average EBITDA margin of $3.07 per ton. Through the 1st 3 quarters of the year, the U. S. Thermal operations have generated $196,000,000 of EBITDA, while only requiring $32,300,000 of maintenance capital. The PRB shifted better than anticipated 22,100,000 tons.

Speaker 2

The segment reported $51,700,000 of adjusted EBITDA as all three of the mines did an outstanding job managing costs for another quarter. EBITDA margins more than doubled from the Q2 to $2.34 per ton. The other U. S. Thermal coal mines generated $28,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 2

Shipments and costs all in line with expectations. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, we are making a couple of tweaks to full year guidance. Seaborne thermal volumes are now expected to be 200,000 tons higher and 16,200,000 tons and other U. S. Thermal costs are up $2 to $45 per ton.

Speaker 2

We've added $50,000,000 to capital for 2024, primarily to reflect accelerated development at Centurion as well as timing of spend at Wambo. For the Q4, seaborne thermal operations expect another steady quarter with volumes of 4,100,000 tons, including 2,500,000 export tons. 400,000 tons are priced at approximately 120,000,000 while 800,000 tons of Newcastle product and 1,300,000 tons of high ash product remain unpriced. Costs are projected to be between $48.53 per ton. Seaport metallurgical volumes are forecasted at 2,300,000 tons, a substantial increase from the 1st 3 quarters of the year.

Speaker 2

The lockout which impacted Shoal Creek have been resolved and we also expect our 1st shipment of development coal from Centurion. Segment costs are anticipated to improve to $120 to $125 per ton. PRB shipments are expected to be 21,200,000 tons at an average realized price of $13.50 With continued focus on cost discipline, costs are forecasted at $11.5 to $12 per ton continuing to improve on full year average costs. Other U. S.

Speaker 2

Thermal shipments are expected to remain steady at 3,900,000 tons. Average realized prices are anticipated to be $52.40 with costs at $46 per ton. In summary, we completed the repurchase of another 4,500,000 shares, generated over $260,000,000 in available free cash flow, are set up for an even stronger operational Q4, and we continue to make excellent progress in developing Centurion, soon to be a cornerstone of metallurgical coal asset in Peabody's global coal portfolio. Operator, I'd now like to turn the call over for questions.

Operator

We'll now begin the question and answer session. And the first question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the surety side. And I wondered if you could remind us what the bonding obligations are today, what the surety providers underwrite off that obligation and how that might evolve over the next couple of years and to what extent additional capital might be unlocked there? Thank you very much for your perspective.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Lucas. It's Mark. A couple of things or thoughts on the sureties. Nothing has really changed from what I've said previously. We don't expect the bonding requirements to change significantly nor the levels of collateral against it.

Speaker 2

I will remind you, we did get about $110,000,000 in bond reductions early first half of the year and also got some of that collateral back. But that's kind of our run rate right now. And outside of any changes in laws or changes in our footprint, we wouldn't expect to see anything substantially different.

Speaker 4

Got it. I appreciate that. Thank you, Mark. On the met coal cost side, things costs have been trending a little bit more towards the higher end of guidance. And I wondered to what extent one offs like the lock on the Warrior River contributed to that development.

Speaker 4

And so as we look out to 2020 5, is the Q4 guidance maybe more indicative or are there other moving pieces to keep in mind? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Yes. A couple of thoughts, Lucas. 1, we're not providing 25 guidance yet, just to be clear. So I won't speak to that. I do think we've been toward the higher end of our guidance for the segment as a whole.

Speaker 2

I think in Q4, you'll see that Metrop's production is going to come down a little bit after really incredible Q3. Shoal Creek production is going to be going up. Net net, there's going to be some additional production and you're going to see a modest decrease in those costs quarter over quarter. But for the full year, we'll probably come in toward the or maybe a little bit toward the above

Speaker 3

the midpoint on cost guidance for the segment.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Mark. I want to quickly touch on capital returns and capital allocation. A lot of your peers have taken a step back from buybacks given the softer met coal price environment today. You had a strong free cash flow quarter in Q3. You pointed to a solid operational outlook for Q4.

Speaker 4

So should we anticipate continued activity on the buyback front? Or does this market environment have an impact on how you approach capital returns? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Sure, Lucas. First, you're right, we completed that $100,000,000 share repurchase in the quarter. I mentioned last quarter, opportunistically, we saw an attractive price point. We can maybe accelerate that buyback based on the favorable outlook for the second half. We were able to accomplish that getting almost 4,500,000 shares bought back at an average price of $22.55 So really pleased with the Q3 performance.

Speaker 2

Looking out last quarter, we talked about $200,000,000 $300,000,000 of free cash flow in the second half of the year and really had a tremendous third quarter, achieved all of that in the Q3. That was helped with working capital, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. The Shoal Creek Insurance recovery collection as well as the reduction receivables really boosted that. Going forward, we're committed to the 65% to 100% of free cash flow. Nothing's changed there.

Speaker 2

We'll continue to look at it. We'll see where 4th quarter comes in with realized pricing. When you look at year to date, we're probably about $100,000,000 ahead year to date and that was really the acceleration from the Q3. But stay tuned and we'll take a look at it during the Q4 knowing that our program does have the flexibility to step out in front of it if we see an opportunity to do so.

Speaker 4

Mark, I appreciate all your color. To you and to team, all the best of luck.

Speaker 2

Thanks Lucas. Appreciate it.

Operator

The next question comes from Katya Jansick with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting on the Wambo shutdown next year. Am I understanding this correctly? So the volume next year on the seaborne thermal is going to be down 400,000 tons?

Speaker 2

Hi, Katya. Good morning, by the way. Jim Grech here. We haven't given guidance for next year on the tonnages, but we're saying year over year in total for Wambo underground itself, Typically, it's running about 1,200,000 tons a year and next year with the acceleration of the closure that mine will be at 800,000 tons.

Speaker 5

And can you remind me, is that Newcastle grade, correct?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 5

So there could be a negative mix shift a bit next year as well?

Speaker 3

That's possible. Yes.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And then maybe on the Shoal Creek. So I think you mentioned 120,000 tons were shipped in 3Q and there should be a meaningful material increase in 4Q. Can you provide a little more color on how much you expected to ship in 4Q?

Speaker 3

Yes. It will be around 600,000 to 700,000 tons.

Speaker 5

And in which markets are you targeting?

Speaker 3

Well, it's going to be a component of spot in there. And as I said in my remarks, the clearing market for spot is China or Southeast Asia right now.

Speaker 5

And it's because spot market, if we look at the high Vol A pricing, it hasn't really improved that much. So it's still pretty subdued. Do you still see value in selling into the spot market at these prices?

Speaker 3

Well, look, there's the high vol A market, which is the FOB market, and then there is the CFR market. And like when I gave the part of the Centurion presentation, I spoke about where all the growth is in Asia, and that's where the tons need to go. So if you have a look at September, when you look at Asian pricing, as I said, it went down to $180 FOB Australia. And as we sit here today, it recovers $204 But if you're selling high vol into Asia, you have to sell really on a CFR basis. So what that means is cost of FOB plus freight.

Speaker 3

So if I I could probably give you a worked example here to help you sort of get your ideas around that. At the moment, PLV is quoted as delivered in China, that's Australia from Australia with freight at $2.15 a ton. And then if you look at generally look at normal high vol coals, they could probably achieve somewhere between 80% 90% of that price delivered. So if you do that math, you come to a number, let's call it $183 and then you take break off that and that's the freight from the USA to China. And that would tell you that today, your FOB price for a mid range high vol A coal is around $143 a ton.

Speaker 3

Does it make sense? As I said in my remarks, that is where the demand is. So if you want to keep going, that's the level and that's where you need to go.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. I'll hop back into the queue.

Operator

The next question comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the 3rd quarter results.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Pete.

Speaker 6

Let me start on the CapEx front, Mark. You guys called out $50,000,000 CapEx increase for full year 2024. It looks like $10,000,000 of that was sustaining. So maybe first, what's the driver there? And then the other $40,000,000 growth, is that all Centurion?

Speaker 6

And how does that accelerated spend at Centurion maybe impact the timeline going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes, you got your math right there, Nate. Dollars 10,000,000 is probably sustaining that mostly is component capital. So componentized items on the equipment fleet that really is maintenance, but just based on the dollar value in the life, we capitalize it as capital. If you add that 10 to sustaining, that'll probably put us toward the top end of our annual range of 150, maybe a little bit below, but closer to that 150 now. Of the growth, dollars 30,000,000 of that is Centurion, maybe some of the other $10,000,000 is some of the Wambo open cut and really pulling that forward from next year into this year.

Speaker 2

Again, that's for equipment. At Centurion, continuing the development rates continue to exceed expectations, doing really well. Part of that is continuing that and getting another minor kind of a rental or a higher continuous minor in there to keep those development rates going up. They continue to exceed expectations, as I mentioned, but too early to tell or commit to any sort of accelerated timeline and bringing that longwall into production.

Speaker 6

Okay, perfect. Mark, I appreciate those thoughts. With the Wambo open cut capital being spent there, is there an expectation that tonnage from the open cut will offset some of the underground tonnage that's expected to fall off last excuse me, next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, I do think that next year we're going to see a little bit better production and more production out of the open cut at Wambo. Again, the spend was kind of orchestrated to get that fully ramped up and we're close there, but we should see year over year increases in production. And that will help offset some of the lower underground production as Jim mentioned.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. Off of what kind of base this year is the expectation to be?

Speaker 2

I'm sorry, I didn't quite catch that, Nate.

Speaker 6

The Wambo open cut base level production are expected this year, you said next year hopefully would increase year over year. So what kind of base are we looking at for 2024?

Speaker 2

I don't know. We're probably 3,000,000 tons and going up from there. Maybe we'll see a 10% increase.

Speaker 6

Okay, perfect. Thanks, Mark. And then maybe shifting over Shoal Creek, specifically on the Holt Lock. I appreciate your comments there. What I heard was the fix in place is probably more temporary and not long term.

Speaker 6

Is that correct? And if so, do you guys expect any impact or future impact to Shoal Creek sales, if and when more work needs to be done there?

Speaker 2

Yes, Nate, there is as you said, the repairs are temporary, but coordinating with the Army Corps of Engineers, we're not expecting as they do their work to make the permanent repairs to really impact the shipments. They're going to time the work and work with the transporters on the river to minimize or have anything that's even negligible impacts on the shipments in the future. So that's our expectation to not have any negative impacts as these repairs are done in the future.

Speaker 6

Okay, Jim. Thanks for that. That's good to hear. And then maybe just finally on Centurion, congrats again on getting initial coal there and then washed. As you said, it looks like first coal sales in here in the Q4.

Speaker 6

How should we think about the sale of those development times between now and when the longwall starts up as in potential volumes, costs, etcetera?

Speaker 3

So I would have said that next year, we'd sell probably up around 490,000 tons in 2025. That's not guidance. That's what I'd estimate. And at that level, that would probably equate to say 6 shipments, so maybe a shipment every 2 months, something like that.

Speaker 6

Okay, Malcolm. Thanks. And with that tonnage flow through the normal P and L, would that be reflected in Seymour Met shipments?

Speaker 3

Yes. It will be recognized as revenue to the revenue account.

Speaker 6

Okay. Perfect. All right. Very helpful, guys. Appreciate the time and best of luck here in the Q4.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Nate.

Operator

And the next question comes from Chris Laffimina with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks operator. Thanks guys for taking my question. So just quickly on Wambo and I apologize if you got this earlier, I just I hopped on the call late. But what was the EBITDA contribution in the Q3 from Wambo?

Speaker 2

Chris, I don't have that in front of me between the 2 or 3 underground mines or thermal mines. Is

Speaker 7

there a ballpark number you can give us on that or no? No. Okay. Secondly, just in terms of capital allocation, I mean, you guys obviously have a very strong balance sheet. You're generating cash flow.

Speaker 7

Good to see the buyback in the quarter. There's also obviously some coal asset sales that are being considered in the market today. And I'm wondering how you think about just M and A in general. And should we look at the $200,000,000 buyback in the quarter as a signal that maybe you're not looking at aggressive M and A opportunities? Or is it kind of you want to keep those options open if something very compelling arises you would like to get involved?

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, Jim here. And as this was our past practice, we don't make any comments on M and A activity. So I'm just going to leave it at that. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's all I had. Thank you. Thanks guys. Good luck.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Our next question comes from again Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you so much for taking my follow-up question. Jim, with the election next week, I wanted to ask, how much of a priority it is to reopen the PRB for leases? I understand it's not a priority today in terms of your capital outlays, but with stronger power demand growth, advancements in CCS, for example, maybe one day it will make sense again. So how would you engage with the new administration on this topic? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Well, Lucas, I'm going to speak from a Peabody perspective, not an industry wide perspective, but we have leases and reserves in place for many decades to come. So our position there as far as lease holding and reserve holdings is very, very strong. So if the demand does increase significantly above our projections, we can lean into that very easily with the reserve base that we have. There is nothing more that we need to do with that.

Speaker 4

In terms of long term optionality?

Speaker 2

Well, if you're talking about optionality over long term about optionality being to increase tonnage levels, we have that secured already with the lease holdings that we have, if that's what you meant by optionality. We can increase the output in the PRB, if the demand and obviously the economics are there with the lease holdings we have for decades to come still. Yes, Luca. So I mean, we got, I think, 1,500,000,000 tons in front of us under lease. So lease is not an issue for us for decades.

Speaker 4

I appreciate that perspective. Thanks again. And again, best of luck.

Speaker 2

Thanks again.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, in closing, I'd like to thank our dedicated team for their hard work and focus on our first value safety. We're very pleased that 2 of our operations Shoal Creek and El Segundo received the prestigious Sentinels of Safety Award from the National Mining Association for their outstanding safety performance. Additionally, our Metropolitan and Wilpin Young Mines were recognized for their outstanding safety achievements at the New South Wales Mining, Health, Safety and Community Awards. Additionally, I'd like to thank our shareholders, customers, vendors for their continued support. We remain focused on delivering value through operational excellence and the successful execution of our strategic priorities.

Speaker 2

So operator, that concludes our call.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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