Wendy's Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 31, 2024

There are 23 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to The Wendy's Company Earnings Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you.

Operator

You may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Good morning and thank you for joining our fiscal 2024 Q3 earnings conference call. After this brief introduction, Kirk Tanner, President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide a business update and then Gunther Plush, Chief Financial Officer, will review our Q3 results and share our updated financial outlook. From there, we will open up the line for questions. Today's conference call and webcast includes a presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website, ir.wendy's.com. Before we begin, please take note of the Safe Harbor statement that appears at the end of today's earnings release.

Speaker 1

This disclosure reminds investors that certain information we discuss today is forward looking and reflects our current expectations about future plans and performance. Various factors could affect our results and cause those results to differ materially from the projections set forth in our forward looking statements. Also, some of today's comments will reference non GAAP financial measures. Investors should refer to our reconciliations of non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure at the end of this presentation or in today's earnings release. If you have questions following today's conference call, please contact me.

Speaker 1

I will now hand it over to Kirk.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Aaron. As many of you know, Aaron joined us in September to lead Investor Relations and we are excited to have him aboard. I'm going to start with some high level results and drivers in the quarter and then we'll get into some of the initiatives we are working on to strengthen the Wendy's brand and its operations across the company and our franchisees. I'll then hand it over to GP to talk more about our Q3 performance and updated outlook. During the Q3, our restaurants continued to grow sales as global system wide and same restaurant sales grew 1.8% and 0.2% respectively.

Speaker 2

In the U. S, we remain competitive as we held traffic share within the QSR burger category, which has been a bit more challenging than we anticipated coming into the Q3. Our team's focused execution allowed us to also maintain dollar share driven by consumer demand for our craveable core items, our impactful innovation and relevant value. The morning day part continues to be a compelling growth opportunity delivering a mid single digit sales increase compared to the prior year. Late night sales also delivered strong performance, growing sales at a high single digit percentage compared to the prior year driven by momentum in our delivery and digital businesses.

Speaker 2

In our international segment, we achieved high single digit system wide sales growth driven by nearly 100 new restaurant openings through the end of the third quarter. International same restaurant sales growth was led by our Canadian market, including a high teen percentage growth in breakfast traffic. Now turning to our digital business. Global digital sales grew almost 40% year over year led by our U. S.

Speaker 2

Segment delivering over 17% digital sales mix. This growth was supported by enhancements to the Wendy's app that have enabled us to deliver an improved user experience. We now have about 45,000,000 reward members enrolled. Now that's up from 43,000,000 at the end of the second quarter. In addition, we opened 64 new Wendy's restaurants globally during the Q3 and remain on track to meet our goal of 250 to 300 openings for the full year.

Speaker 2

Turning now to some of the initiatives I'm working on with the team. As most of you know, I have now been in the role 9 months and I can tell you I'm even more optimistic today on the potential for our brand and opportunities for the near and long term growth. As we look ahead, we are focused on continuing to build love for Wendy's by delivering on our new brand promise, fresh famous food made right for you every time in every restaurant for every customer every day. It means that we're doubling down on operational excellence ensuring customers receive the same excellent experience across every Wendy's restaurant. Our Wendy's promise is foundational to our culture and it's delivered by inspiring our employees to always put the customer first, make every restaurant the star, operate the one best way and own the responsibility to grow the Wendy's brand.

Speaker 2

We have shared the brand promise with employees and franchisees at our recent convention and it has been met with enthusiasm. This promise is embedded in the framework I have established that will serve as our blueprint to relentlessly pursue long term profitable growth. The framework consists of 4 key elements: drive same restaurant sales and share growth accelerate digital growth and improve restaurant profitability, all of which will drive net unit development. Achieving these goals will strengthen the Wendy's brand and reach more Wendy's fans worldwide with a consistent and high quality experience. Let me expand a bit on the actions we are taking beginning with global unit development.

Speaker 2

Our enhanced U. S. Incentive programs rolled out in July are resonating with franchisees and are expected to support continued progress on our new restaurant pipeline. In September, we also announced new development incentives in Canada and Latin American countries, which are already sparking many development and renewal conversations. As we continue to open new restaurants, we are using data driven insights to target high growth trade areas.

Speaker 2

These new restaurants have delivered an exceptional customer experience enhanced by technology and improved drive through and delivery experiences, higher employee satisfaction levels under a more efficient labor model and U. S. AUVs above $2,000,000 and operating margins above the system average. Overall, the Wendy's system is incredibly healthy and our restaurant reimaging has been completed at 89% of restaurants globally. And we want to further improve our restaurant footprint and overall system health.

Speaker 2

In order to do so, we conducted a robust review of individual restaurants to ensure they meet our expectations for sales, have the profitability to fuel growth and deliver the Wendy's brand experience for customers. Following this review, I have made the strategic decision to close additional restaurants this year that are outdated and located in underperforming trade areas. These restaurants have AUVs of approximately $1,100,000 and operating margins well below the system average. We have designed this initiative to ensure that over time many of these units will be replaced by new restaurants at better locations with significantly improved sales and profitability. We anticipate that total closures in 2024 including additional closures in the Q4 will be offset by new restaurant openings this year, leaving our net unit growth approximately flat compared to the prior year.

Speaker 2

By the end of 2024, we will have opened more than 500 new restaurants over the last 2 years and have the confidence we will deliver an elevated growth in 2025 and

Speaker 3

the years to come. As we shared last quarter, we have development commitments in place to meet our 2025 new build goal, which supports our previously stated outlook for 3% to 4% net unit growth. Now let's turn

Speaker 2

to our plans to drive growth in the Q4 and beyond. We continue to expect sequential improvement in year over year sales growth from the 3rd to the 4th quarter. This will be driven by our commitment to putting the customer first in everything we do to deliver our craveable menu, impactful innovation and relevant value. We have strong momentum as earlier this month we launched the Krabby Patty Burger and Pineapple Under the Sea Frosty celebrating SpongeBob's 25th anniversary. We were excited to bring this fan favorite to life through innovation on 2 of our iconic core menu items and we are executing this promotion in a way that only Wendy's can deliver.

Speaker 2

This programming is resonating with consumers generating a powerful response that is driving significant sales growth and earned media for the Wendy's brand. We are very pleased that the initial performance has exceeded our expectations. This is a great example of what we can deliver when we bring our innovation, marketing and execution capabilities together. Looking ahead, we are building on this momentum with a strong lineup of campaigns launching in the upcoming weeks. We will feature an innovative new salted caramel frosty flavor, the return of a customer favorite mushroom bacon cheeseburger and national media showcasing our iconic spicy chicken sandwich.

Speaker 2

Building on our marketing efforts, we are evolving our national advertising and digital strategies. Our new campaigns incorporate the God of You Wendy's tagline and highlight our delicious food as the hero. We're pleased with the traction this approach has gained and look forward to sharing more as we progress. Moving on to our commitment on restaurant profitability, I see significant potential to strengthen our position in profit accretive categories like beverages. Extending our partnership with Coca Cola is one of the ways we are doing this.

Speaker 2

Our new agreement enables us to grow this highly profitable segment leveraging the Coca Cola Freestyle platform, which offers more than 100 drink choices. We also have plans to add beverage options aligned with modern consumer preferences. And right now, we're giving our beverage business a boost as we kick off the Q4 with $1 any size drink promotion. Another category where we will drive margin improvement is through breakfast sales growth, which we anticipate will continue to outpace the rest of day. As part of our company investment in breakfast advertising, we recently launched national media for our breakfast burritos and are encouraged by the consistency of our breakfast growth.

Speaker 2

In addition, our fresh AI voice enabled order taking provides us with another opportunity to enhance margins. This technology boosts labor efficiency and allows crew members to spend more time on activities that elevate the customer experience. We are encouraged by the results of testing at select company restaurants and we will broaden the implementation in 2025 across more company and franchisee restaurants that will unlock margin expansion opportunities. Our pursuit across these initiatives gives us the confidence in our outlook for accelerated growth and profitability to close out 2024 and beyond. Looking ahead, I'm excited about the future and our vision for Wendy's to reach its full potential.

Speaker 2

Our ability to deliver profitable growth and create shareholder value is grounded in our focus on the execution of our strategic priorities that build on our brand promise. We look forward to sharing more details about our long term growth strategy and execution plans at our Investor Day, which will be held on March 5, 2025. Finally, I want to express my appreciation to all of our employees, franchisees and suppliers for their dedication and outstanding contributions. I'll now turn it over to GP to share more details on our

Speaker 4

Q3 results.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Kirk. In the Q3, our global system wide sales grew 1.8%, 6.6% on a 2 year basis, supported by global same restaurant sales growth across both our U. S. And international segments and contributions from new restaurants opened this year. Our U.

Speaker 3

S. Company restaurant margin was 15.6%, flat to prior year. The impact of higher average check and labor efficiencies was offset by labor rate inflation and customer count declines. The increase in G and A was primarily driven by an increase in employee compensation and benefits and an increase in professional fees. These were partially offset by a decrease in incentive compensation accruals.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA decreased 2.9% to approximately $135,000,000 resulting primarily from an increase in the company's incremental investment in breakfast and the increase in general and administrative expenses. These were partially offset by increases in franchise royalty revenue, other operating income and net rental income. The decrease in adjusted earnings per share was driven by lower adjusted EBITDA, an increase in depreciation and a higher effective tax rate. These were partially offset by fewer shares outstanding due to the company's share repurchase program. Finally, the increase in free cash flow resulted primarily from a decrease in cash paid for cloud computing arrangements and a decrease in capital expenditures.

Speaker 3

These were partially offset by the company's incremental investment in breakfast advertising. Now let's turn to our expectations for 2024. As Kirk said, we are competing well and are pleased to have maintained traffic share in the Q3. However, given the softer category environment in the Q3, we now expect full year global system wide sales growth of approximately 3%, made up of 1% to 2% same restaurant sales growth and contributions from new restaurants opened this year. We have strong momentum to start the Q4 with October U.

Speaker 3

S. Same restaurant sales accelerating significantly compared to the Q3, giving us confidence in achieving our updated 2024 same restaurant sales outlook. Our adjusted EBITDA outlook of $535,000,000 to $545,000,000 remains unchanged. The impact of our updated system wide sales outlook is being offset by incremental franchise fees related to the additional restaurant closures in the Q4 and lower general and administrative expense. With 1 quarter left to go in the year, we have narrowed our U.

Speaker 3

S. Company operated restaurant margin expectation to 15% to 16% and our outlook for adjusted EPS to $0.99 to $1.01 Finally, we continue to expect capital expenditures of $90,000,000 to $100,000,000 and free cash flow of 2.75 to $285,000,000 Now I'd like to highlight our capital allocation policy, which remains unchanged. Our first priority is still investing in profitable growth, which we will continue to do while holding true to our asset light model. Secondly, today we announced declaration of our 4th quarter dividend of $0.25 per share, reflecting a full year dividend of $1 per share in 2024. This represents an industry leading mid single digit dividend yield and aligns with our commitment to sustain an attractive dividend.

Speaker 3

Lastly, our capital allocation policy gives us the flexibility due to excess cash to repurchase shares and reduce debt. Year to date through October 24, we have repurchased approximately 3,600,000 shares and have approximately $248,000,000 remaining on our $500,000,000 share repurchase authorization expiring in February of 2027. We continue to anticipate total share repurchases in 2024 of approximately $75,000,000 We are fully committed to delivering our simple yet powerful formula. As an efficient growth company, we drive system wide sales growth supported by positive same restaurant sales and expanding global footprint. This is translating into significant free cash flows, which supports meaningful return of cash to shareholders through an attractive dividend and share repurchases.

Speaker 3

With that, I will hand things over to Aaron to share our upcoming IR calendar.

Speaker 1

Thank you, GP. On November 19, we will be in Chicago for an NDR hosted by Morgan Stanley, after which we will head to the Stevens Investment Conference in Nashville on November 20. On December 3, we will participate in the Barclays Eat, Sleep and Play Conference in New York City. If you are interested in joining us at any of these events, please contact the respective sell side analyst or equity sales contact at the host firm. Lastly, we plan to report our Q4 and full year earnings and host a conference call on February 13, 2025.

Speaker 1

And as mentioned earlier, we will hold an Investor Day on March 5 with more details to come later. We will now transition to the Q and A part of the call. Due to the high number of covering analysts, please limit yourself to one question only. Operator, please queue up the first question.

Speaker 5

Thank

Speaker 6

you. Our first question for today comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks. I'll try to squeeze in a 2 parter really unrelated, but the unit growth outlook, I wonder how you're thinking about that now. I know you had some closures that might prove temporary as a drag to net unit growth in the U. S. And then at the same time, it looks pretty bright what's going on in terms of international development.

Speaker 7

I'm wondering if you're thinking about a more of an international skew to your development going forward, how you're thinking about that? And then as far as the marketing goes, Krabby Patty has clearly been a big win. I'm wondering how you're thinking about more platform ish type, renovations, innovations, things that are that seem to have more of a longer curve to them. I mean, these types of activations are great, but I'm wondering if you're also working on some bigger stuff that we should be thinking about around the corner. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Well, David, good morning and appreciate the question. First, I'd like to talk about the unit growth question that you asked. And look, the overall strategy and initiative here is to build on an already strong system. This initiative makes us even stronger. And I just wanted to point out a few things about our system.

Speaker 2

One, if you look at the Wendy system, 89% of our restaurants have already gone through this image activation. And we've built 500 new restaurants over the last 2 years. We'll build almost 250 to 300 restaurants this year. And when you think about strengthening our system, we are looking at closing a few restaurants that underperform. They have AUVs of about $1,000,000 Their margin is under the average of the business.

Speaker 2

And they're just in locations that don't build our brands. And so those are the opportunities that we've taken a look at to truly make our system much stronger. Now when you think about development for the future, we're guiding at 3% to 4%. Now, I'd like you to think about that as 70% being international, 30% being domestic. That's kind of how we're thinking about our development goals.

Speaker 2

This strengthens our development progress over the next several years, not just in 2025, but we're looking at it as 2025, 2026, 2027 beyond. So that really is the development strategy and strengthening our system. Let me turn the focus to our menu. We've seen some success of Krabby Patty and you know what I really attribute some of the success is it's really built off our core menu. The Krabby Patty Burger is built off that square fresh never frozen burger.

Speaker 2

And of course, leveraging our Frosty is always a game changer. The combination of those two things really, really hit the mark. As we look into the future of continuing to focus on our menu, we do that in 3 ways. 1, build our core. We're looking at how we energize our core menu.

Speaker 2

I think that's incredibly important. We'll continuously talk about the fresh never frozen quality of the ingredients that we put into our menu. We think that that's an advantage over our competition. But we'll continue to look at areas to build our core up. We'll always have an innovation pipeline.

Speaker 2

We've seen that this year. If you look at our business this year, you've seen us innovate on saucy nugs. You've seen us bring frosty innovation to the forefront. That's always going to be a place where we can delight our consumers. And then the last part, we'll continue to have a value offering that delivers the highest quality at the best value.

Speaker 2

And we do that today through Biggie Bag. So those kind of the three things we're thinking about as far as our menu ongoing. We always have this opportunity to get even better and that's our focus.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dennis Geiger of UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks guys. I wanted to come back to the breakfast and it seems like you're continuing to see good performance at that daypart given the initiatives that you've got in place across advertising, some of the offers, innovation, etcetera. Just curious, Kirk, if you could kind of touch a bit more on that on how plans are progressing and how progress is progressing against your plans and how we think about 2025 perhaps from a breakfast perspective, if anything to highlight there? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Dennis, thanks for the question. Appreciate it. Yes, breakfast is an important part. We've really set out and we launched breakfast in 2020, but we've invested in breakfast this year and continue to invest in breakfast in the years to come. We feel like this is still a real opportunity for us to build the potential of Wendy's.

Speaker 2

We like the tailwind that it's giving us right now. It is growing faster than the category and it's growing faster than our business. So it's a nice tailwind to us. We look at this opportunity as profit accretive, leveraging the restaurant. It's also an incremental daypart as we build that.

Speaker 2

So it gives us the traction that we need for the long haul. We do see this as a long term strategic initiative. It's not going to be something that we just do this year or next year. You can look forward to us continuing to develop our breakfast strategy over the years to come.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Danilo Arturo of Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. You mentioned that the macro was a bit more challenging than you were expecting coming into Q3. So can you help us understand the health of the consumer, both domestically as well as internationally? And whether you've seen any softening of these macro pressures getting into the Q4?

Speaker 5

So any intra quarter commentary might be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I would talk a little bit about Q3. We're still in a very challenging environment, I would say, with the consumer. I would tell you that there's kind of Q3 there's 2 halves to Q3. We saw some momentum in the second half of Q3 that gives us some confidence.

Speaker 2

And of course, we've seen that pick up in Q4 as well. That gives me the confidence that one will deliver against our guidance and then it's a little bit brighter moving into 2025. That's kind of how I would shape it. So still under pressure Q3, second half of Q3 felt a little better than the first half And then we're seeing some momentum in Q4. That's kind of how I would architect what's happening with consumers.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Ivankoe of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thank you very much. The question is on prime costs, food and paper plus labor, which in the most recent quarter ran around 63. I probably don't have to tell you, I mean, that screen is actually very high relative to most public restaurant companies. In fact, I can only think of one that's higher and that brand is not in quick service and doesn't have advertising.

Speaker 9

So I guess, have you, Kirk, as you came into the Wendy system, kind of benchmark that number relative to the peers? And if there are kind of a couple of easy, and I really do mean to say that easy ways to kind of fix that number, what are the types of opportunities that we should be thinking for you to significantly improve that ratio and get it closer to a more typical 60 type of number

Speaker 2

where I know the industry typically long term tries to target? Thank you. Yes, I think, see restaurant level margin. It's really important that we do that. I see this in 2 buckets.

Speaker 2

1 is driving that efficiency. That's why you see us investing in things like AI with our drive thru. That allows us to have our employees in the restaurant working the orders efficiently. It saves time, etcetera. That drives the labor number down.

Speaker 2

As you know, the split between food and labor is almost equal in restaurants. And so our opportunity is to drive labor costs down and to improve the food costs. So you'll see us do that.

Speaker 8

And I

Speaker 2

think the last thing, you'll see us focus on some categories that drive positive mix. 1 is beverages. We've got a new agreement with Coca Cola. This allows us to aggressively grow our beverage business, which is profit accretive from a mix standpoint. So you'll see us focus on menu accretion from a profitability standpoint.

Speaker 2

So those are three areas we're looking at. Looking at labor efficiency, we're looking at food cost and we're looking at growing those categories that are more profitable than the rest of the business faster.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. I had one question and then one follow-up. The follow-up actually just GP reiterated the adjusted EBITDA guidance despite the comp and the system sales shortfall. I was wondering if you could just maybe just talk high level as to what you think of the offsets to align and maintain that EBITDA?

Speaker 10

And then my question is more just following up on the unit growth side of things. Wondering in terms of international and I guess U. S. Franchisees receptivity and you guys seem confident in, I guess, 2025 accelerating to that 3% to 4% net. Presumably, it is on a base reduced by the closures.

Speaker 10

I'm wondering if you'd share how many closures there were or maybe how many absolute number of openings you're expecting in 25? Just because I know you mentioned 100%

Speaker 11

of the new build goal

Speaker 10

is tied to development commitments, but it's always a question of whether or not those are executed on. So any color there would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Cath. So first on the adjusted EBITDA guidance, you're right. Obviously, the tightening of the sales range created a headwind for us on the EBITDA side that was offset by increased franchise fees, right? As we are allowing franchisees to close the restaurants, we are earning a fee that is helping our EBITDA. And secondly, we have slightly have a slightly lower G and A.

Speaker 3

The overall guidance range of $255,000,000 to $265,000,000 of G and A is unchanged. We are sliding a little bit to the lower end of it. So that's how we were able to keep adjusted EBITDA unchanged. A little bit more color on the closures, right? As we said previously, it was a 2% net unit growth rate.

Speaker 3

The additional closures are about 140 additional units. So basically, we are closing overall as many units as we are opening. That's why we are ending up overall slightly flat. That obviously gives us really good confidence for the really significantly accelerated unit growth rate of 3% to 4% in 2025. And as Kirk said, I think in one of his answers already, right, these additional closures didn't all come out of 2025.

Speaker 3

These are closures that would have happened in 2025, 2026 and 2027. So it gives us a longer term visibility on accelerated net openings to come.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Mullen of Piper Sandler. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Just back to the breakfast day part. Kirk, can you talk about the beverage component of the offering? Do you feel good about the beverage platform? Is that an area where you'll be spending more time where you think perhaps could be innovated from here?

Speaker 11

Just any thoughts on that component of the offering would be great.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes, my heart is still with beverages a lot. This is an opportunity for us for sure with breakfast. I think we've done a really good job building an unbelievable menu with the kind of highest quality ingredients, a menu that really delivers for our customers.

Speaker 2

Beverages is an opportunity. As I mentioned before, it drives profitability. Yes, look for us to innovate across a beverage portfolio for breakfast and the rest of the day parts. You'll see a lot from us in the beverage category.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris O'Cull from Stifel. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes. Good morning, guys, and thanks for taking the question. Kirk, it's good to hear the Krabby Patty promotions performed really well. Can you discuss what customer segment it's appealed to and if there are plans to collaborate with any other brands in the future?

Speaker 2

Yes. This is one that has reached a lot of folks. You think about the 25 year anniversary of SpongeBob has definitely struck a chord with a large population. And that excitement is driven clearly a lot. And it's the best of kind of what Wendy's can bring to the table.

Speaker 2

I think that's what I take away. It's a great partnership, 1 +1 equals 3. And I think we got that with Paramount in this regard. I think this also is kind of a celebration of the quality of the menu that we have that delivered against the expectation of customers. I think, yes, this is an opportunity for us to continue to find ways to excite our customers and drive traffic.

Speaker 2

I think this is an example where others will want to partner with us to do that. We're always open minded to drive growth, drive traffic and excitement, leveraging our menu. I think this is an example of what we can do and what good partners we can be to drive growth.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Lauren Silverman of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thank you very much. One more just a follow-up on the recent trends, clearly the acceleration that you've seen. As the launch comes to an end, would you expect trends to normalize at a sustainably higher level than what we've seen in recent quarters? And then can you just talk about the performance that you're seeing across the low, middle and high income cohorts? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Lauren. Yes. So October, as we said in the prepared remarks, we really significantly accelerated growth versus the Q3. As you do the math on our guidance, it implies that obviously we are sequentially stepping up our performance in the Q4. So that obviously was a great start to the year.

Speaker 3

We have, as we said, a lot of additional really impactful programming out there for the rest of the quarter with the salted caramel frosty, the mushroom bacon cheeseburger that our consumers really love. And we're putting mainstream national media against the spicy chicken sandwich and clearly our $1 promotion on any size drinks has continued to run through the quarter. So we're very confident with that outlook. And we think it's a pragmatic guidance and we were very confident to achieve the step up in performance in the Q4 versus our year to date performance. As far as income cohort is concerned, as you know, our research agency is splitting income cohorts in households that earn less than $75,000 and those that are maintaining more than $75,000 Overall, we are as we overall maintaining share in the pedigree, dollar and traffic share, the same thing happens in those income cohorts.

Speaker 3

We're maintaining traffic and dollar share with both the lower and the higher income cohorts.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Harbour of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Sort of a random one. The voice AI and drive thru, are you in fact seeing kind of like labor hour savings? I guess like if you could quantify that or sort of tell us more about what you're seeing and what's like the accuracy rate on that?

Speaker 14

Or what do you usually look for? You've obviously sort of expanded it, so you must be seeing things you like. But could you tell us more about that?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, we're still developing this. We like what we see. If you think about the efficiency that we're driving through the drive thru, that's the key component of that. That has a direct correlation to the efficiency in which we can drive in the drive thru, which if you think about the transactions that go through Wendy's today and 70% of those transactions going through the drive through.

Speaker 2

This is kind of the first place you want to get right. I tell you, we're delighted with how this continuously gets better. We're seeing improvements in accuracy, efficiency and it gives us the confidence that we're going to see some efficiencies in the overall labor model in the restaurant. So we'll leverage the restaurant, the employees in the restaurant to deliver against a more efficient execution and that is enabled by AI. Look, this is one of those things you go slow to go fast.

Speaker 2

Right now, we're in this continuous improvement, learning, getting our accuracy to a place where we like and then you'll see us deploy it across the system.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jon Tower of Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe specifically in the quarter, I'm just curious, starting, how does your Biggie Bag platform perform during the Q3, knowing that one of your larger competitors decided to do a value meal deal throughout the period? And then more broadly speaking, similar competitors talking about relaunching a new everyday value platform likely in early 2025. So can you speak to how your brand has performed in the past when large competitors kind of revamp their value message?

Speaker 15

And frankly, how you might plan to respond this go around?

Speaker 3

Good morning, John. The piggyback, yes, is a national recognized platform. It's resonating really very well with consumers. So as our competitor launched their meal deal, we obviously supported ours. The mix year over year was up 1% or so.

Speaker 3

So it did well for us and helped us perform well and maintain share on a dollar and traffic basis in the 3rd quarter. As we are thinking about value, right, we absolutely believe that value in an environment of value seeking consumers is not about only executing price point promotions and value deals and value bundles, there's more to that. For us, we believe to be competitive, we need to continue to innovate. We have demonstrated this in the Q3. You see the innovation line up in the Q4.

Speaker 3

We are going to continue to do this to delight the value seeking consumer. Top of it, as Kirk already said, we are not letting go on the core menu. The core menu needs to delight also in the value environment. Again, we are executing accordingly to that in the Q4. And let's don't forget operations, right?

Speaker 3

We are laser focused for the restaurant to be the star and really have a customer centric mindset. We are working really hard on having that value seeking consumer having an outstanding experience at the restaurant. So this whole package of great value, great core menu, we are innovating and then we are really executing well when it matters. When we're meeting the consumer, this is how we can think we can be very successful in a value environment.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jim Zallara of Stephens. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned the October accelerating and obviously the implied acceleration in 4Q in the guidance. Can you just maybe offer some more color around what components of the menu are driving that acceleration? I know I've seen a lot of saucy nug advertisements during football games this season.

Speaker 4

So maybe some color on how that's contributing? And then just any thoughts on bridging kind of the back half of the quarter assuming that you see the Krabby Patty benefits start to roll off?

Speaker 2

In quarter 4, what I'd like to see about the momentum is the balance across our menu. We've seen our large sandwich perform very well. Our innovation with saucy nugs has done very well. And our value platform, as GP just talked about, it's that balanced approach across our menu that gives us the confidence that the momentum will continue. But that's kind of if you take a look at it, it's not one of those areas.

Speaker 2

It's a combination of the 3. The core menu, crabby patty has been a nice shot in the arm that's built off of a terrific core menu that is delivering the growth. We'll continue to do that. And again, we won't iterate you can't iterate enough the excitement that innovation drives. You'll see us continue to drive innovation as we've talked about.

Speaker 2

You'll see a Salted Carmel Frosty come out. This is timely for the season. You'll see us deliver again a great quality hamburger and our mushroom bacon cheeseburger. I mean, those are the kind of things you can expect from us, continuous innovation, focus on our core and delivering the best value in the marketplace.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sara Senatore of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Thank you very much. I wanted to go back to the store closures just in the sense of are there any kind of themes around the types of markets that they're in geographically? The reason I ask is it feels like a lot of restaurants that are accelerating unit growth are kind of shying away from the Rust Belt or the Northeast and really targeting the Sun Belt and faster growing cities and MSAs. And I'm trying to figure out if like there's room for everybody and also what this means in terms of net growth. Is this just sort of population shifts?

Speaker 16

And as you follow them, we should think about it from that perspective or is there really kind of room to densify further or to grow beyond just the sort of moves in the economy or the population that we've seen over time in the U. S?

Speaker 2

U. S? Yes. Let me answer that. Thanks for the question, Sarah.

Speaker 2

Look, if you look across the entire U. S, these are really spread out. It's not one geography in particular. When you think about strengthening our system, you look at a brand that's 55 years old and some of those restaurants are quite out just out of date. And that's really kind of the punch line on that one.

Speaker 2

It's not one particular area. It's across the board. It's not that many in the scheme of things. It is really about strengthening our system. When I look at our potential though, I look at we still have runway in the U.

Speaker 2

S. To have another additional couple of 1,000 restaurants that would allow us to kind of hit our potential. And then internationally, of course, there's a great deal of potential to reach the penetration that we aspire to. So if you think about the strategy was to strengthen our system, to get high performing restaurants moving. Our focus is on building new restaurants because we know they deliver well over the average of these poor performing restaurants.

Speaker 2

So poor performing restaurants about $1,000,000 these new restaurants that we're building do $2,000,000 AUVs. That's kind of the mentality that we've taken in this approach. And then we overall want the best restaurants for the customers and that customer experience we want to deliver. So that's kind of how we have structured this strategy.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Charles of TD Cowen.

Speaker 17

Cohen. I wanted to reconcile the breakfast performance up mid single digit with the comps overall around flat. So can you talk about the incrementality of breakfast sales and what you're seeing there versus incrementality in recent years?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's highly incremental from a daypart standpoint. It also leverages the labor model in the restaurant and leverages the restaurant itself. So you think it's highly incremental to anything else that we would do. And again, we see the mid single digit growth that's ahead of our growth.

Speaker 2

It's ahead of the category. So we're you think about gaining momentum on competition and building out this daypart, it gives you the confidence to stick with it. And that's exactly where we're at. We'll continue to build this daypart. It's an important part of our strategy.

Speaker 2

It's important for our franchisees as well. So that's kind of how we're looking at the breakfast daypart. But it is, to answer your question, incredibly incremental to the rest of our business.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gregory Francfort of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks for the question. I just had a kind of cost question, GP. Can you maybe just frame up what you're seeing from the commodity side and the labor side on inflation basis and how you expect that to play out kind of in the near to medium term? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Greg. A couple of things. So on the commodity front, a little bit more inflationary. Last time I told you, we would be flat. We have got a little bit more inflation on beef.

Speaker 3

So we see about a 1% commodity inflation for the year. That's obviously contemplated in the restaurant margin guidance we issued. Labor rate is stable. We told you 3% to 5% last quarter and continue tracking that way. So we have full visibility now.

Speaker 3

Price size are locked down for the year. So I don't expect any other movements in that area. We're obviously turning our focus now to lock down and get visibility for commodities for 2025.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jake Bartlett of Truett Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Great. Thank you very much. Kirk, my question was about your comments on operational improvements. You talked about doubling down. And I'm wondering how large an opportunity improving operations is whether you rank that as one of your kind of largest sales driving potentials in the near in the longer term into 2025.

Speaker 18

How would you frame that opportunity as a sales driver?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good very good question, something close to my heart. When you think about our overall strategy and our promise of putting the customer first, making every restaurant the star, operating one best way and owning it. Those kind of the behaviors that we want. And if you think about what we're doing with our marketing, our innovation, our menu to deliver top line growth, our digital acceleration, all those things are underpinned by operational excellence, right?

Speaker 2

Those that's kind of how I think about it. I think that operational excellence is what delivers against your strategy, right? And that's how important it is to us. We are very focused on it. We want to deliver that amazing experience for our customer every single time.

Speaker 2

That's why we're overt about the Wendy's promise. So that's kind of the essence of how we're putting focus on that. We organized ourselves to do that. We've recently had our convention with our franchisees. We focused our energy on this operational excellence.

Speaker 2

I think this is what all great companies do. They operate with excellence and deliver a great experience for their customers. And that's kind of the essence of what we're talking about.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Saleh of BTIG. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 19

Yes. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about the dollar any size soft drink promotion that you guys are running. That's been a proven strategy. I think we've seen many of your competitors run this in the past and it's definitely worked.

Speaker 19

So could you just talk about the early success that you're seeing there? And is this a promotion that's limited to the Q4 or will this carry into 2025? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you. Beverage is a main focus like I mentioned before. We have this terrific partnership with Coca Cola. We have the Freestyle machine, which we love.

Speaker 2

It has the ability to deliver over 100 different beverages. What I like about it is it definitely delivers the portfolio that Coca Cola has and it delivers it in both full sugar and 0 sugar, giving customers real choice. That's an advantage at Wendy's. And we wanted to celebrate that and remind people of that. That's when the $1 promotion definitely is effective.

Speaker 2

We see that in quarter 4. We won't talk about 25 moving forward, but that's kind of the intention about 1, celebrating we have beverages. Beverage is a real profit opportunity for us in the future. We have a platform in Freestyle that allows us to deliver choice for customers and you'll see us double down on that. So we've got some momentum on beverages right now.

Speaker 2

We expect that will continue.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Christine Cho of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 20

Great. Thank you for taking the question. So we saw some announcements on executive leadership changes in major hires, including the Chief Legal Officer and Senior VP of U. S. Operations.

Speaker 20

And I'm perhaps looking forward to meeting some of them at your Analyst Day in March. But Kirk, do you feel you have all the right people in place now to kind of drive accountability and accelerate growth globally? And what are some of your key priorities in an organization perspective? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes, we've made some changes that we are very excited about here at Wendy's. I think that I want you to take away that, one, we have a high level of talent and that is focused. And when I say focus, we've structured ourselves to drive our U.

Speaker 2

S. Business from a development and execution standpoint. We structured our international business to accelerate our international development and operations. So we are organizing ourselves and supporting that organization with great talent. That I am very confident will drive future growth for us.

Speaker 2

And that is, I think, a very deliberate strategy that we've engaged in.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alex Slagle of Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Thanks.

Speaker 21

Just going back to the success you're seeing with the spun collaboration and what seems like a really big jump in recent weeks. I just wanted to kind of see if you could elaborate on what you're doing differently just to drive engagement, whether there's something on the digital or social or any specific changes on that front that are working and you can carry on future promotions and innovation?

Speaker 2

Yes. This is another example of when a lot of things are working at the same time. One is you build off a great menu, it's a great collaboration. The networks have been working, right? So our social game on this has been very impactful.

Speaker 2

Our digital business growing through both our loyalty program and delivery has been elevated. So it's kind of ticking a lot of boxes. You got something that's exciting that our customers and our fans are interested in and then you deliver the execution against it with the best menu in the business coupled with great advertising, great digital platform and great social media. So it's really all come together on this one.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jim Sanderson of Northcoast Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 22

Hey, thanks for the question. Just following up on the discussion of promotional support given the success of the Krabby Patty promotion, do you plan to add more partnerships or potentially celebrity endorsements, something that would actually promote the product innovation you've described that you're launching later this quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, this success definitely gives us the encouragement to do more things of this nature. I think it also shows that Wendy's can be a great partner in this regard. I think that's important that both partnership or both parties in the partnership win. And I think in this case, that is true.

Speaker 2

Of course, we look at every opportunity to elevate what is the best menu at Wendy's. We think that the future is bright when it comes to these opportunities. We'll certainly

Speaker 8

look for those opportunities that make sense for us and that only builds the

Speaker 6

Thank you. Our final question for today comes from Logan Reich of RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask a follow-up just about the improving trends through the quarter and into October relative to income cohorts. Are you guys seeing improvement in the lower income cohort as well as the middle and higher income cohorts? Or is there any sort of divergence between those brackets within the quarter and through October?

Speaker 3

Good morning, Logan. Yes, as I said previously in one of my answers, from a market share point of view in quarter 3, We maintained share with the lower and to higher income cohorts. October numbers sounds like a cop out answer. The data is not available, so I really can't answer your question.

Speaker 1

That was our last question of the call.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kirk and GP, and

Speaker 1

thank you everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our Q4 call in February. Have a great day.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
Wendy's Q3 2024
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