Essential Utilities Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 5, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Ellie, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Essential Utilities Third Quarter 20 24 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Dingerdissen. You may now begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Essential Utilities' 3rd quarter 2024 earnings call, during which we will provide an update on new long term guidance. The slides that we will be referencing and a webcast of this event can be found on our website. As a reminder, some of the matters discussed during this call may include forward looking statements that involve risk, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from any future results or expressed implied by such forward looking statements. Please refer to our most recent 10 Q, 10 ks and other SEC filings for a description of such risks and uncertainties. During During the course of this call, reference may be made to certain non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

A reconciliation of any non GAAP to GAAP financial measures is posted in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. We will begin the call today with Chris Franklin, our Chairman and CEO, who will provide an update on the company and then Dan Schuler, our CFO, who will provide an update on the financial results before Chris closes the call with our guidance. With that, I will turn the call over to Chris Franklin.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Brian, and welcome, everyone. We've got some really exciting news to share with you today. I've got some more color, but let me just run through it in a very, very brief summary on top here. We had a great quarter financially. We had a strong capital investment so far this year and we have an approved Pennsylvania gas rate case that included a weather normalization mechanism.

Speaker 2

We had a settlement in our Pennsylvania water rate case yielding us $73,000,000 and we are reinstating our multi year EPS guidance at a 5% to 7% growth rate through 2027, which importantly does not include, DelCora, any earnings associated with DelCora. And then we're also going to talk a little bit about our strong recovery from the, Hurricane Helene that hit North Carolina. So a lot of good things to talk about, for the quarter. So let me get into the details. First, we posted $0.25 in earnings per share for the quarter, which was above expectations.

Speaker 2

Our capital spending remains right on schedule this year. We've invested $932,500,000 through the end of the Q3 and we'll spend about $1,300,000,000 to $1,400,000,000 to improve water, wastewater and natural gas infrastructure this year. Dan will get into more details about the financials for the quarter in just a few minutes. So in September, the Pennsylvania PUC unanimously approved the 1st rate case for Peoples Natural Gas under our ownership. The approval included an annualized revenue increase of 93,000,000 dollars and a weather normalization mechanism.

Speaker 2

You probably know this mechanism because others have it. It's designed to provide greater financial stability and predictability for both our customers and our investors by mitigating the financial volatility associated with abnormal weather impacts. I know you'll recall that both this year and last year have been unusually warm weather and have impacted our results. However, it could have just as easily gone the other way and we could have had 2 abnormally cold years which would have negatively impacted our customers. So this new mechanism will provide the ability to mitigate these abnormalities in weather and should assist with reducing the volatility for all parties going forward.

Speaker 2

I do want to mention that the Office of the Consumer Advocate filed a petition for review of the approval in the PNG case. Dan will talk a little bit more about that in a minute, but I did want to mention that. So, let's also talk about the water rate case, the Aqua Pennsylvania rate case. We filed our briefs on October 28. And in those documents, you'll see that we have a settlement agreement designed to provide a total annualized revenue increase of $73,000,000 from our water and wastewater operations.

Speaker 2

We expect the settlement agreement to be filed formally on November 7 and available on the PUC website at that time. It's important to note that this settlement agreement, as all settlements would be, remains subject to a recommended decision by the administrative law judges and approval by the PUC. I should also mention that East Whiteland, you'll recall that acquisition, it's a wastewater acquisition in Pennsylvania, was excluded from the settlement and will be fully litigated in front of the PUC with an expected decision on that coincident with the rate case decision in February. Now, on the next slide, our significant progress on the 2 Pennsylvania rate cases have provided us the opportunity to reestablish long term guidance. This guidance, which I'll review in more detail later, includes EPS growing at a compound annual growth rate of 5% to 7% for the next 3 years.

Speaker 2

That's through 2027. Continued rate base growth of over 8% combined and our continued commitment to improving and upgrading water, wastewater and natural gas infrastructure by investing $7,800,000,000 over the next 5 years through 2029. Importantly, we expect to achieve this EPS growth without including any contribution to the EPS from the DelCoro transaction. So to be clear, we remain confident that our valid and enforceable asset purchase agreement will ultimately prevail and that we will close the DelCora transaction. But we want to remove any potential overhang that might be associated with the delayed closing of DelCora, so we've taken it out of our numbers.

Speaker 2

And we believe this guidance communicates the right balance of growth for our investors built on the right level of infrastructure investment that ultimately results in rates that are affordable for our customers. It's truly a win win. As this slide indicates, we've consistently executed our plan to grow earnings between 5% 7% every year. We've delivered these results despite elevated inflation, higher interest rates and some of the warmest weather on record in our natural gas territory. Hopefully, our most recent achievements and the continued strong results indicated on this slide underscore our ability to execute and our regulatory credibility in the jurisdictions where we operate.

Speaker 2

Let's just take a moment. We were hit hard by the hurricane as so many people were in our country, particularly in the South. I want to talk a little bit about the impact of Hurricane Helene on our North Carolina operations. Thankfully, our team was quick to respond, clearing trees and other debris that allowed us to do some damage assessments early on after the storm had passed. We prioritized communications with our customers most importantly, providing regular updates through our disruption map and other forms of electronic communication and physical communication, signage and etcetera.

Speaker 2

We also dispatched a special reconnaissance team equipped with drones to inspect damage in areas that were either inaccessible or unsafe, particularly in the more mountainous communities where we serve. Now in total, 90 of our systems in North Carolina were impacted, But through really strong work by our teams, all but 6 systems were back up in just 5 days after the storm. And as of October 19th, everything was back in power and repaired and fully functional. We're grateful for the patience of our customers and the understanding they provided and we also appreciate the dedication and extensive work effort of our North Carolina team. And with that, let me turn to Dan and he's going to cover our financials for the quarter and some regulatory matters.

Speaker 2

Dan?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. As Chris mentioned, we're pleased with the financial results for the quarter. On this slide, I'll discuss high level Q3 financial highlights and then we'll get into the details with the waterfalls. Our revenues for the Q3 of 2024 were $435,300,000 marking an increase of about 6% compared to $411,300,000 in the Q3 of 2023. This increase was driven by rates and surcharges, increased water sales, an increase in the price of gas and water customer growth.

Speaker 3

These factors far offset the minor revenue decline from lower natural gas sales. The quarterly operations and maintenance expense decreased for the Q3 compared to the Q3 of 2023. This decrease was primarily due to a reduction in bad debt expense and a decrease in expenses associated with the West Virginia Gas Utility Assets and the Pittsburgh Area Energy Project, both of which we have divested. We achieved quarterly earnings per share of $0.25 which compared to $0.30 in earnings per share in the Q3 of 2023. So while we had an increase in revenue and a decrease in O and M expenses, last year's EPS in the Q3 was positively impacted by significant one time tax repair benefits associated with the natural gas safe harbor, which of course didn't repeat this year.

Speaker 3

Next, let's look through the waterfalls going to the first the revenue waterfall. Moving left to right, we have regulatory recoveries of over 11,000,000 dollars with the vast majority of this increase coming from the regulated water segment, plus over $10,000,000 in increased water segment volumes and about $4,000,000 coming from an increase in purchased gas costs as well as acquisitions and organic growth in the water business. This was offset slightly by lower volume of gas sales due to the warmer than normal weather as well as the other category. Revenues from the regulated water segment increased just shy of 8% for the Q3 of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. We saw excessively warm and dry weather at various times in the Mid Atlantic as well as in Ohio, which in turn led to higher water volume, but we experienced lower water consumption in Texas and in North Carolina.

Speaker 3

Next, let's look at the O and M on slide 10. We saw a relatively modest increase of approximately $1,600,000 in water production costs due to the higher volumes previously discussed. And among the smaller increases to O and M were the impact of customer rider in the gas business, routine increases in employee related costs and customer growth in the water segment. The overall reduction to O and M costs was primarily due to a decrease in bad debt expenses and a reduction in expenses related to the now divested West Virginia Gas Utility Assets and the Pittsburgh Area Energy Projects. Importantly, our year to date O and M performance is quite strong, expenses only up about 1% over the previous year, which demonstrates our continued commitment to operating efficiency.

Speaker 3

Next, let's look at the EPS waterfall on Slide 11. Starting on the left of the EPS waterfall with $0.30 from last year, the next thing we see is the nearly $0.03 increase from regulatory recoveries and close to $0.03 from increased water volume, the benefit of 0 point 0 $6 from the decline in expenses and $0.03 in customer growth in the Water segment. These increases were offset slightly by decreased gas consumption and then more materially by nearly $0.11 from other, which reflects lower tax repair benefits and increased depreciation and interest expenses. As I noted earlier, the lower repair tax benefits this year are mainly the result of the timing of the natural gas safe harbor impact in 2023. In conclusion, we're pleased with the performance for the quarter given strong results in the water business and slightly lower expenses year over year.

Speaker 3

More importantly, we remain on track for a year in line with our guidance and investor expectations once we adjust for the sale of the energy project and normalized weather for the gas business. Let's review the guidance we provided in February, updated in May and reconfirmed in August as well as today. We provided guidance for 2024 net income per diluted common share to be $1.96 to $2 We expect to achieve this once we consider the gain on sale and weather impact. So think about it this way, due to the energy project sale, GAAP earnings per share will exceed our guidance range, but if we subtract the $0.24 gain from that figure and add back $0.08 to reflect the warmer than normal weather in Q1 and Q2, we'd expect to result into the $1.96 to $2 EPS guidance range. As Chris mentioned, in 2024, we expect to invest between $1,300,000,000 $1,400,000,000 We're on track to do this as we've already invested over $932,000,000 through September.

Speaker 3

Turning to the next slide, let's look at regulatory activity. The Pennsylvania Natural Gas or P and G rate case was filed in December 2023, and we received an order from the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission back in September. This order included an annualized revenue increase of $93,000,000 mainly due to the doubling of rate base due to replacing aging infrastructure since the last case, as well as weather normalization, which is good for both customers and investors. This order also fully incorporates the repair tax benefit into the revenue requirement, thus benefiting our customers. This case has a fully projected future test year that extends through September of 2025.

Speaker 3

Rates went into effect on September 27, so you'll see the increased revenue from the rate case in our Q4 results. Unfortunately, as Chris mentioned, in a highly unusual action, one of the parties that didn't sign on to the settlement agreement, the Office of the Consumer Advocate, has appealed the PUC's order to the Commonwealth Court and has asked for a remand of the PUC, essentially claiming that the PUC needed to include more information to support its findings to approve the rate increase. We believe that the order is very sound and while based on a non unanimous settlement with all parties except for the OCA, it was supported by both the administrative law judge and the commissioners who voted five-zero to approve the order. We'll be supporting the commission and its order on appeal and we're closely monitoring the situation. The company does not expect accounting implications related to this appeal process.

Speaker 3

Moving on to the next slide, as Chris mentioned, we've reached a settlement for the rate case that we filed for Aqua Pennsylvania in May of 2024. The settlement would be reviewed by the assigned administrative law judges and then the Commission. Once approved, we expect the new rates from this settlement to go into effect in February of 2025. This rate case includes a fully projected test year through the end of 2025. The settlement is designed to provide an annualized revenue increase of $73,000,000 on the water and wastewater operation.

Speaker 3

It's important to note that the East Whiteland wastewater system is excluded from this settlement and thus is being addressed separately, but will conclude with the rate case outcome in February. Moving on to the next slide. In 2024, our regulated water segment received rate orders or infrastructure surcharges in several states, including Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Pennsylvania totaling $51,000,000 This does not include the settled rate amount for the Aqua Pennsylvania case that we discussed a moment ago. Our regulated natural gas segment also received infrastructure surcharges in Kentucky and Pennsylvania totaling approximately $22,000,000 in addition to the $93,000,000 that we just discussed, for a total of approximately $115,000,000 in increased annualized revenue. Looking ahead, we currently have rate cases or infrastructure surcharges pending in Illinois and Ohio and the pending Aqua Pennsylvania rate case settlement for our regulated water segment.

Speaker 3

Combined, the revenue request in these cases is 149,200,000 dollars We also have an infrastructure surcharge pending in Kentucky in the amount of $465,000 for our regulated gas segment. And with that, I'll hand the mic back to Chris.

Speaker 2

All right. Thanks, Dan. And let me talk a little bit about growth. As of this call, we have 7 signed asset purchase agreements across 3 states Pennsylvania, Texas and Ohio, in which we already have existing water and wastewater operations. These agreements are projected to add over 213,000 customers or customer equivalents and total approximately $360,000,000 in purchase price.

Speaker 2

And it's the reminder that the federal bankruptcy court judge in the bankruptcy of the City of Chester continues to have a stay on all proceedings related to DelCora. But also remind you that we said a couple of times, we've removed all financial impacts from DelCora in our new EPS guidance. Now you'll notice that we recently signed a deal with Integra Water to acquire the wastewater system in Los Milagros, Texas. This system is expected to add about 1100 customers to our network and comes with a purchase price of about $4,400,000 We've also entered into an agreement with the Village of Midvale to acquire their water system in Midvale, Ohio. This system is expected to add about 900 customers to our network and has a purchase price of $3,000,000 Now, although a couple of these most recent systems are on the small side, we continue to have a robust pipeline of potential water and wastewater municipal acquisitions that we are actively pursuing.

Speaker 2

These potential acquisitions continue to represent nearly 400,000 total customers and result in a significant expansion of our current customer base, assuming we get them completed. Now since 2015, our growth by acquisition strategy has allowed us to add over $500,000,000 in rate base and more than 129,000 new customers or customer equivalents to our footprint. In addition to municipal growth activity, we're seeing great developer opportunities in several of our states, especially in Texas and North Carolina. Really worth mentioning, in the past 3 years, we've negotiated deals with Texas developers to be the water and or wastewater utility operator and owner for communities that are expected to build over 30,000 homes. Growth like this is as valuable as any acquisition we would do.

Speaker 2

Texas has been growing significantly over the last 20 years, and you've probably seen the numbers adding roughly a 1000000 people every 2 years. So also of note is that our service territory is within what they call the Texas Triangle. This is the most rapidly growing areas of Texas, including Austin, San Antonio, Houston and the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. All right. In closing, let me share with you our multi year financial and growth guidance.

Speaker 2

You've heard some of it already. We are reestablishing guidance as promised, and we believe it will give you a clear line of sight to the opportunities in front of us. In 2025, we expect earnings per share to be between $2.07 $2.11 Importantly, now that we have a weather normalization mechanism in place, the volatility in earnings associated with unusual weather should be dramatically reduced. We're guiding longer term EPS at a compounded annual growth rate of 5% to 7%, and that is for the 3 year period through 2027. Once again, this does not include DelCora.

Speaker 2

As we look to the next 5 years through 2029, we plan to make regulated infrastructure investment of about $7,800,000,000 We expect our 2025 capital spending on infrastructure to be approximately $1,400,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 Through 2029, we expect the regulated water segment rate base growth at a compound annual growth rate of about 6%. This projection only includes the acquisitions listed on the previous slide and are scheduled to close in 2025 and excludes DelCora. This projection does include the crucial work that we are doing to remediate PFAS across the systems we currently own and operate. For our regulated natural gas segment, we expect the rate base to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11% through 2029. I'll tell you the team at Peoples continues to amaze us with their ability to execute on their capital plans and we have the opportunity to continue the important work of replacing aging natural gas pipes well past the next decade.

Speaker 2

On a combined basis, that's water and gas, we project rate based growth at a compound annual growth rate of over 8% through 2029. This growth will be driven by our ongoing investments in infrastructure and our commitment to operational excellence. I would expect that when we look back in 5 years on what we've done, we will have completed even more, given the acquisition pipeline that is not factored into our rate base growth projections. We believe that the growth we're describing can be accomplished while we keep customer rates at affordable levels. We anticipate that our water customer base will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of between 2% 3% over the long term because of the continued consolidation opportunity in water wastewater and strong organic customer growth, especially in Texas and North Carolina.

Speaker 2

We expect our regulated natural gas customer base to remain stable. Now to support our growth and meet our credit metrics, we plan to raise equity through our multi year ATM program through 2027. Specifically, between 2024 2025, we expect to issue approximately $350,000,000 in equity through the ATM. I know that that's probably smaller than some of you expected, but we believe our strong regulatory outcomes allow us now to do about $350,000,000 between the 2 years and we believe that will satisfy our capital needs, fund our growth initiatives and maintain a strong balance sheet and credit profile. I'll tell you we remain committed to our sustainability goals as we outlined in our annual sustainability report.

Speaker 2

And we're just very, very excited about providing all this guidance to you today. We are very optimistic about the future of our company and the opportunity that lie ahead. And so with that, I look forward to your questions. And, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We are now opening the floor for question and answer session. Your first question comes from Julien Dumoulin Smith from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Open. Hey, good morning team, Chris, Dan, the whole team here guys. Really, incredible outcome here. Really nicely done to get back on that EPS CAGR horse. So, kudos on that pivot.

Speaker 4

With that said, guys, a lot of comments here. I want to come back to a couple of them. On the equity financing expectations, just want to understand, am I seeing a little

Speaker 5

bit of a shift here?

Speaker 4

I mean, in terms of 'twenty four and pushing into 'twenty five a little bit with this percent

Speaker 6

between 'twenty four and 'twenty five?

Speaker 4

And how do you think about that fitting with the rating agencies out there? I just want to speak to having reviewed the new plan with Moody's potentially, how are they reacting? How are you thinking about your equity timing with their outlook as it stands?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Julien. It's Dan here. So we're staying quite close to the rating agencies at this point in time just to make sure that we are in sync. And what we put out here is that we would raise $350,000,000 between $24,000,000 $25,000,000 And so we stood up the ATM back in August.

Speaker 3

We raised some equity on that already. And then it gives us the opportunity to be to pick the advantageous times between now and the end of 2025 to raise the 350 that we noted.

Speaker 2

We feel confident that Moody's feels good about our plan.

Speaker 3

Correct. Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 4

Got it. Is that any kind of subtle shift from your earlier $1,000,000,000 multiyear equity just to dig at that a second further?

Speaker 5

Well, when we put that when we

Speaker 3

talked about the $1,000,000,000 and we put the $1,000,000,000 ATM in place, what we said was that we would use that over an approximately 3 year period of time. Depending on acquisitions and other fact, I don't really see it as a pivot at all or change from what we had indicated before.

Speaker 2

And we hope if we're raising that kind of equity, we're doing some really nice acquisitions. So it gives us some optionality, Julien.

Speaker 4

Yes, absolutely. In fact, actually, do you want

Speaker 5

to speak to that a

Speaker 4

little bit because I've heard you comment the equity expectations under the base versus your updated thinking about DelCor or some of these acquisitions, right? I mean, what is sort of that ex M and A dynamic on equity versus inclusive? And then I know you mentioned DelCor here as being kind of incremental on the cherry on top, if you will. Is there a sense that as far as you're concerned that you could get this done in a given time or you're going to hold off from providing any more prescriptive timeline at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. The way I think about it is, we have a very strong asset purchase agreement as you know and it's been declared by several levels of courts to be valid and enforceable. The frustrating part is this federal bankruptcy court judge, not even on DelCoro, obviously it's on the city of Chester. And so we have no control over that. Now there is a hearing later this week, and we do believe that the stay will be lifted on the Supreme Court's ability to determine who is the owner of the Chester Water Authority.

Speaker 2

So that's helpful. We need to get to stay lifted on PUC proceedings on DelCora. But given the fact that we're not in control, it's difficult for us to have that influence. And so we backed that out of our numbers for that reason. But most certainly, if we can get that stay lifted and get it moving at Public Utility Commission, we feel confident that it will go.

Speaker 2

Remember, it's a one time rate base case of that new RRR won't really have any influence and this should fit nicely with it. And if we were to do that, if we could move forward, call that in late 2025, 2026, then most certainly we need equity and we'd want to be able to have access to ways to raise that equity. But as I said, it gives us optionality. When we put that ATM in place at that side, we really thought about how do we do this efficiently, how do we save legal costs and how do we set these things up in a manner where we had access to it even if we did need to use the entirety of it.

Speaker 3

And I guess Julian what I would add is, when we put that out there, we talked about 3 years, so it's a multiyear program. But it did contemplate at the time that we would have acquisitions in there. So what I wouldn't do if I were you is say, are you at $1,000,000,000 now you're allocating $350,000,000 to $24,000,000 in 20.25, so that means $650,000,000 in 2026. I would not go down sort of on that direction. As we've said, it's a multiyear program and it contemplates having some room for acquisitions as well.

Speaker 4

Got it. And last clarification here, as you think yes, I know it's great. And last clarification, as you pivot out of DelCor, is that kind of the bulk of the delta here? I know you have the segment rate based CAGRs of you move from the 8 to 10 to the 6 and 11 respectively for water and gas. Is that kind of reflected principally as a function of pulling DelCor out there in terms of the composition mix?

Speaker 3

Yes, that is Julian. So we don't have DelCor and thus we don't have a follow on capital related to DelCora either. As Chris said, we remain extremely confident that we will ultimately close DelCora and have that in our future, but it's not in the plan.

Speaker 4

Got it. Excellent. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 7

Appreciate it. You bet. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hey, Durgesh. Good morning, Durgesh. Hey, Krish and Dan. Good morning. Congrats on the settlement in the water rate case, well done.

Speaker 7

Just maybe on equity, Dan, can you clarify, so what have you issued year to date? And is that $350,000,000 that you're guiding to do that?

Speaker 3

Sorry, it was a little garbled there at the end. We've issued a relatively modest amount of equity between August and now, just given blackout periods and some stock price volatility. So we've taken some off of that $3.50 but it's not a tremendous amount.

Speaker 7

Okay, got it. That's all I wanted to ask. Thank you. And then just the 5% to 7% EPS growth CAGR, the starting point is just to confirm, is it the 2024 guidance midpoint, is that fair?

Speaker 5

Yes. I guess the way I

Speaker 3

would think about that, we haven't finished 2024 yet. So we don't yet have the final EPS. And of course, as we've said, it's going to be a number that is above our guidance range because of the sale of the energy project assets. So we don't know the final EPS, but if you think about it this way, if you think you start with the 2025 EPS guidance range that Chris talked about, the $2.07 to $2.11 and then you use the 5% to 7% growth, you can back calculate a 20.24 EPS of $1.97 or you can go back farther another year and you'd get to $1.86 which was our actual result for 2023. So that should provide you with some insights into how we're thinking about it.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Essentially, it's close to the 2024 EPS guidance midpoint that we just described $1.97 versus $1.98 Okay. That's helpful.

Speaker 7

And then finally, just thank you for explaining. I was just going to ask you on the water rate base delta. It looks like it's just not DelCora, but DelCora Plus future investments in DelCora that's driving that rate base delta. Just one last question for me is just on the Moody's metric basis then, so where do you expect to shake out? I know that there are negative outlook early in the year and you have this equity plan.

Speaker 7

Where are you expecting to shake out? Are you expecting to shake out among debt and downgrade threshold as we think about 2025, if you could just clarify that for us?

Speaker 3

Yes. No, it's a great question. So yes, in 2025, when we've got the additional cash flow created by the PNG and Pennsylvania rate cases and some other things, we'd expect to see FFOs to debt that are above 12%. And then we'd expect ultimately to have the negative outlook resolved probably into 2026 at some point.

Speaker 2

Pulling out our current level. Correct.

Speaker 7

Excellent. Well, thank you and congrats again on the solid regulatory process in PA.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Ritesh. Take care.

Operator

Your next question comes from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, Travis.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. Thank you. You answered most of my questions. Appreciate all the information, the guidance and such. High level question and timely here.

Speaker 6

PFAS, if there were to be a Republican administration, what are your thoughts not necessarily in terms of the limits being reconsidered, but implementation timeline and some of the maybe federal aid that would come your way to help with that?

Speaker 2

Yes. I would say, if anything, we would not expect a backing off on the limit. So that the 4 parts per trillion probably stays in place, at least to our best estimate. But even if there was a slowing in the compliance period, we would expect to continue to meet the current pace. We've talked to our regulators in the states that are particularly impacted by this.

Speaker 2

And regulators both on the environmental side and on the economic side have suggested that we stay the course and complete the work and then, get it recovered.

Speaker 7

In the meantime, as

Speaker 2

you know, we have been in for low interest loans and grants and also sued the polluters and we'll continue to pursue all of the above. In terms of federal money, as you probably know, that flows down through the agencies, the SRS or state revolving loan funds. And we don't see a big change there in terms of what we the federal money flowing through the states. So I guess the matter who's elected today, we don't expect a big change and we fully expect to still invest that, call it roughly $450,000,000 to overcome the PFAS issue. And again that will be funded a number of different ways here as I just suggested.

Speaker 2

Okay. That's

Speaker 6

helpful. And then one more kind of bigger picture also on acquisitions. Your big peer kind of is

Speaker 7

I don't know if I want

Speaker 6

to put words in their mouth, but slowed, at least plateaued acquisitions. Clearly, you have plateaued or slowed acquisitions. Is there something going on fundamentally over the last year or 2 in the water business where any acquisitions are now reaching a new level, low level or I don't know if you could just characterize kind of what we're hearing from some of the big water utilities on that side.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think in Pennsylvania most certainly that is the case as people figure out how the new regulation will impact them. The new they call it RRR in Pennsylvania, which is essentially a cap, it's not formally a cap, but it's essentially a cap. I think the transactions that were already in place were being figured out, can they come across as troubled? Do they have to be renegotiated?

Speaker 2

So that's a little bit of effort for everybody. And then, new, those who are considering selling their systems, thinking about, okay, what's my DOC and what's 1.68 times that DOC and then is that enough for me to sell? We believe from our ongoing discussions that it will be enough for people to continue to sell because it's still a good multiple And we also believe it will have a positive impact on the ultimate rate impact. So I think it's a temporary low. And I think our ongoing discussions, not only in Pennsylvania, but the other states would indicate that.

Speaker 2

We see some really positive things in Ohio, Illinois, even down south that hopefully will materialize in the coming year here.

Speaker 6

Okay. I understand that structural in PAs, but nothing structural in those other states like you said that would indicate

Speaker 2

something new. Yes. I feel good about it, Travis. I think we're in a little bit of a lull here, but I do think that it will recover nicely.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Appreciate the thoughts.

Speaker 7

You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from Davis Sunderland from Baird. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hey, Nick. Hey, good morning, Ed.

Speaker 5

Thank you for the time. And congrats on a very strong quarter and getting the long term guidance back out there. Just one from me. I was wondering if you guys talk maybe a bit about how the PUC is handling the separated estimated costs for PFAS. Maybe just any thoughts on if these will go through a similar rate base process and eventually be folded into the rate base, or just how we think about those costs could be recovered if through a different mechanism, anything there?

Speaker 2

Yes. Listen, I guess let's start with, we're assured that we will get recovery, in each of the states where we've made the investments. And I think there's a couple of considerations here. 1, how will the proceeds from the lawsuits, which we expect to be in the $100,000,000 range, how will those be treated when those dollars actually come across. We know how they'll generally how they'll be allocated, but will the commissions want that applied to an offset to rate base or will it be offset to O and M?

Speaker 2

And I don't think that's been fully determined at this point. But in terms of our actual capital investment in that mitigation, Dan, happy to get your opinion on that. But I think there are various approaches depending on the state. There are

Speaker 3

various approaches depending on the state. And we're working toward in most of our states, Davis, is really the ability to have deferred accounting treatment on these things. So we would take those these investments, we'd put them on the balance sheet and then we would either stall depreciation, not start depreciation or we depreciate into this regulatory asset for recovery later. So, that's the typical approach is to look for deferred accounting in other places where we're able to incorporate some of these things into our recovery mechanism in a future looking year.

Speaker 5

That's super helpful. Yes, that's all for me. Thank you so much guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

You bet. Take care.

Operator

Your next question comes from Greg Orrill from UBS. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, Greg. Good morning, Greg. Hi. Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Could you talk about the process or timeline around the Peoples Gas appeal?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's an unusual one. And so it's an appeal to the Commonwealth Court. And I'll tell you, listen, anytime these things come up, you don't like to see them, but it is of not it's certainly not of paramount concern to us. It would probably play out over a year, but there's some moving parts to it as well.

Speaker 2

Today being Election Day, there is a race for Attorney General here in Pennsylvania. And the 2 people running for attorney general, the Democrat and the Republican, would both be a new attorney general. In other words, the existing attorney general is not running again. And so the one who is appealing this is the consumer advocate who is hired by the Attorney General. So that's another moving part.

Speaker 2

Might this consumer advocate not be in place after the new the 2 new Attorney General candidates, one of them would be elected and then sort in. So I think that's another factor in here, but it would probably play out over a year period. I think probably the most important takeaway is that the high probability even the request of the OCA in this situation is a remand back to the PUC and they had a 5.0 very strong decision. So, I think in all likelihood there would be some, maybe more support for that decision from the PUC.

Speaker 3

We're given an opportunity

Speaker 6

to document

Speaker 3

their support of the order effectively.

Speaker 7

Makes sense.

Speaker 6

Congratulations.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jonathan Reeder from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hey, Jonathan. Good morning, Jonathan.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning, Richard. Thanks for taking my questions. First off, is the entire $73,000,000 water and wastewater base rate increase for the settlement to be effective in late February or is it perhaps phased in at all?

Speaker 3

No, that would be implemented at one time in February. I think it's February 20.

Speaker 8

Okay. So I guess just with the new PA rates in 2025 for both electric and gas, I'm a little surprised that the 2025 guidance wasn't a little higher. So maybe can you talk about what the 25 headwinds are to EPS growth that we should be thinking about off of call it the original 24 guidance range midpoint of 1.98 dollars

Speaker 3

Yes. I guess I just touched on maybe one area, Jonathan. We're still in process of finalizing our budget for 2025. And but one thing we are seeing is a few areas where we're having O and M headwinds that we haven't had in the past. Let me take you through a couple of those.

Speaker 3

One is purchased power. So we've had a very advantageous multiyear agreement in our PJM states for purchased power. That agreement comes to an end here and we'll have we have a new contract going into effect. And as you know, purchase power prices have increased. And so we're facing that headwind as we go into 2025.

Speaker 3

And then we're seeing things like another example is chemicals, just some new costs. So we haven't historically had PFAS related chemicals. We're going to see some costs at our large surface water plants in 2025 to feed powder activated carbon as an O and M expense to reduce PFAS in the water. So, that's 2 areas. And then probably if you've followed some of the news, insurance costs have continued to increase.

Speaker 3

And so those are a few of the headwinds that I would say help to explain our guidance range of the $2.07 to $2.11 for 2025.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. That's helpful. I was wondering too if you could give a breakdown of the 5 year $7,800,000,000 CapEx budget between water and gas.

Speaker 3

Yes. So, one thing to note is that $7,800,000,000 CapEx only includes a few signed acquisitions and of course we've taken DelCor out of that. So any follow on CapEx for DelCor is not included. So if we look at the $7,800,000,000 it is slightly biased toward water. And I'd say, it's relatively close to fifty-fifty biased a bit toward water, but we would expect with acquisitions that biases even more toward water over time, but that's not in our plan at this moment.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. And then last question, I just I saw the parts of Pennsylvania just issued a drought watch. How much of a concern is this to you guys right now? I mean, I know discretionary water use is getting lower this time of year, but how should we be thinking about that?

Speaker 2

Yes, not a great concern to us. I mean, listen, we're conservationists at heart. We're an environmental company and always we're guarded against any problems that would happen. But this is unusual weather, really is unusual to us. And so we have put some warnings out on our own to our customers, but we're in good state.

Speaker 2

There's not a major concern that we would run low in water or anything like that. That's not an issue here Pennsylvania for us. But certainly we'll comply with the warnings and support the warnings. And but as you just indicated, this is not a high consumption period for us either. So we don't anticipate a major impact.

Speaker 8

Okay. Not just the supply side, but also on the revenue side. It shouldn't be too big.

Speaker 3

Yes. That's correct. We don't expect a financial impact to speak of.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thanks so

Speaker 8

much for taking my questions.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Jonathan. Take care.

Operator

I'd now like to hand back over to Chris Franklin for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you and thank you all for joining us as we're always available for follow-up calls, Brian, Haley, Dan and I anytime. So thanks for joining us and take care.

Operator

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Essential Utilities Q3 2024
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