Albemarle Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Albemarle Corporation's Q3 2024 Earnings Call. We ask that you please hold all questions until the completion of the formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question and answer session. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. I will now turn the call over to Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to Albemarle's Q3 2024 earnings conference call. Our earnings were released after the market yesterday, and you'll find the press release and earnings presentation posted to our website under the Investors section at albemoral.com. Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer and Neel Shereh, Chief Financial Officer. Netha Johnson, Chief Operations Officer and Eric Norris, Chief Commercial Officer are also available for Q and A. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including our outlook, guidance, expected company performance and strategic initiatives may constitute forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Please note the cautionary language about forward looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation, which also applies to this call. Please also note that some of our comments today refer to non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations can be found in our earnings materials. And now, I'll turn the call over to Kent.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Meredith. During the Q3, Albemarle continued to demonstrate solid operational execution, delivering volumetric growth in Energy Storage and Specialties, year over year EBITDA growth in Specialties and Kitchen, strong operating cash conversion of over 100 percent and leverage metrics well below our covenant limits. We also continued to progress our cost improvement plans, further ramp our new facilities and deliver higher volumes. As a result, we are maintaining our full year 2024 corporate outlook considerations. In a few moments, Neil will give more detail on our Q3 performance, key results and actions we are taking to preserve our financial flexibility.

Speaker 2

My focus today will be on addressing the outcomes that we are now driving as a result of the comprehensive cost and operating structure review we progressed over the past few months. In conjunction with this review, we are implementing a new operating structure, transitioning to a fully integrated functional model designed to deliver significant cost savings and maintain long term competitiveness. We are targeting $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of further cost and productivity improvements by eliminating redundancies, reducing management layers and optimizing manufacturing costs. These savings are due in part to the difficult but necessary decision to reduce our global workforce by an additional 6% to 7%. In total, we have eliminated nearly 1,000 roles, including all the actions announced this year.

Speaker 2

We also are now driving a year over year reduction in our full year 2025 capital expenditures by at least $800,000,000 or about 50%, with a disciplined focus on critical health, safety, environmental and site maintenance and a phased approach to maintaining our world class resource base. We are confident these actions are the right steps to adapt to market conditions while serving our customers and pursuing long term value creation. I will have more to say about our cost out and productivity plans later on the call. I'll now hand it over to Neil to discuss our financial results during the quarter.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Kent, and good morning, everyone. Beginning on slide 5, I will summarize our 3rd quarter performance. We recorded net sales of $1,400,000,000 compared to $2,300,000,000 in the prior year quarter, a decline of 41%, driven principally by lower pricing, particularly for lithium. During the quarter, we recorded a loss attributable to Albemarle of $1,100,000,000 and a diluted loss per share of $9.45 Adjusted diluted loss per share was $1.55 Our GAAP result included a pre tax charge of $861,000,000 related to capital project asset write offs at Kemerton III and putting Kemerton II into care and maintenance, of which about 10% is cash outflow in the second half of the year. This charge was below our initial estimate that we provided on the last earnings call of $900,000,000 to $1,100,000,000 Turning to slide 6.

Speaker 3

Our Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $211,000,000 was lower than the prior year period, also primarily due to lower lithium pricing. This was partially offset by lower cost of goods sold, primarily related to reduced spodumene pricing. Other positives include higher volumes in energy storage related to delivery of our growth projects and in specialties related to stronger end market demand. Our cost and efficiency initiatives also provided productivity benefits, which more than offset inflation. Looking at adjusted EBITDA by operating segment, we saw improved year over year profitability in specialties due to productivity improvements and better end market demand.

Speaker 3

Catch in EBITDA also improved year over year as we continued to execute our turnaround plan during the quarter. Moving to slide 7. As Kent mentioned, we are maintaining our full year 2024 outlook considerations, thanks to the execution of our cost and productivity improvements, continued strong volume growth, including higher sales volumes at our Talison JV and contract performance in energy storage. As a reminder, these scenarios are based on historically observed lithium market pricing and represent a blend of relevant market prices, including both China and ex China pricing for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.

Speaker 4

Turning to slide 8 for additional commentary on outlook.

Speaker 3

We expect corporate full year 2024 net sales to be near the lower end of the $12 to $15 per kilogram scenario, primarily due to weaker second half pricing for lithium, offset by contract performance. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the middle of that same scenario range, thanks to successful cost cutting and productivity improvements. In energy storage, we now expect full year volume growth to be more than 20% year over year as we have continued to benefit from solid demand, particularly in China, and ongoing ramps of our new facilities. 4th quarter volumes are expected to be down sequentially, primarily due to timing of spodumene sales volumes, reduced tolling and planned outages. Margins are expected to be slightly higher sequentially, as the benefit of lower priced spodumene and cost of goods sold offsets the impact of unabsorbed fixed costs as our new plants continue to ramp.

Speaker 3

At both Specialties and Kitchen, we continue to expect modest sequential improvements in the Q4, thanks to better end market conditions and productivity benefits. Please refer to our appendix slides in the deck for additional modeling considerations across the enterprise. Moving to our balance sheet and liquidity metrics on slide 9. We ended the 3rd quarter with available liquidity of $3,400,000,000 including $1,700,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents and the full $1,500,000,000 available under our revolver. The actions we have taken to improve our cost structure and enhance operational efficiency have also provided enhanced financial flexibility.

Speaker 3

Thanks to our successful actions to reduce costs and optimize cash flow, we ended Q3 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.5 times, or 2 turns below the covenant limit in the quarter. To navigate market conditions, we took proactive measures in the quarter around our covenant waiver. The outcome of our action is shown on slide 10. In October, we proactively extended our covenant waiver through the Q3 of 2026 and reshaped it to ensure we have the financial flexibility needed as we execute our new operating structure and cost reduction actions. Moving forward, our goal remains to stay well within these limits through solid financial and operational execution, as we have shown throughout 2024.

Speaker 3

Slide 11 highlights our execution focus, which is demonstrated by the continued improvement in our operating cash flow as a result of operational discipline and cash management actions. Our operating cash flow conversion, defined as operating cash flow as a percent of adjusted EBITDA, was greater than 100% in the 3rd quarter, primarily due to timing and management of working capital. We continue to expect full year operating cash conversion to be approximately 50%, at the higher end of our historical range and above our expectations at the beginning of the year. This is driven by increased Talison dividends with higher sales volumes at Greenbushes and working capital improvements, including a significant focus on inventory and cash management across our operations. This means that we expect 4th quarter cash conversion to be lower than recent quarters, due in part to cash outflows associated with the workforce reductions we announced today, as well as the timing of JV dividends.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, we account for our 49% interest in the Talison JV via the equity method. Therefore, the impact to cash flows is in dividends received. As we have said before, we expect dividends to be lower than normal this year and into 2025 as Talison completes the CGP III capital project at the Greenbushes mine. I'm pleased to see that our efforts to improve operating cash flow conversion are yielding results. We will continue driving toward free cash flow breakeven through our ongoing ramp of new capacity, inventory management, bidding events, cost out and productivity measures and other cash conversion improvements.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 12. I will provide a few comments on current lithium market conditions, which have shown some positive signs. On the supply side, there have been several announced upstream and downstream curtailments. Non integrated hard rock conversion is unprofitable, and larger integrated producers are under pressure. We estimate that at least 25% of the global resource cost curve is unprofitable or operating at a loss.

Speaker 3

On the demand side, grid storage demand continues to surprise to

Speaker 4

the

Speaker 3

upside, up 36% year to date, led by installations in the U. S. And China. Global electric vehicle registrations are up 23% year to date, led by China, and demand growth in the United States is also up double digits. Slide 13 breaks down global EV demand growth by region.

Speaker 3

China represents 60% of the overall EV market, with continued strong year to date demand growth of more than 30%, in line to slightly ahead of initial expectations. In terms of demand mix, we have seen stronger growth in plug in hybrid sales in China, as current subsidies are more balanced between battery EVs and plug in hybrids. Chinese plug in hybrids include range extended vehicles with battery sizes somewhere between traditional battery EVs and plug in hybrids. Meanwhile, the softest demand region globally is Europe, where EV sales growth is down slightly year to date due to reduced subsidies and weaker economic conditions. Potential price cuts and the drive toward EU emission targets represent rebound opportunities in 2025.

Speaker 3

North American sales are up 13% year to date, far stronger than suggested by recent headlines. U. S. EV sales trends have strengthened in the back half of the year, benefiting from increased model availability and affordability. Looking further out on slide 14.

Speaker 3

Longer term, we continue to expect lithium demand growth to expand by 2.5 times from 2024 to 2,030. The global energy transition remains well underway, supported by consumer preferences, government policies and technological advancements. From an affordability perspective, the global EV supply chain is on track to achieve the critical $100 per kilowatt hour tipping point, where EVs are at purchase price parity with ICE vehicles. The Chinese industry has likely surpassed that target, with the rest of the world not far behind. Overall, these trends continue to reinforce our belief in the long term growth potential of the industry.

Speaker 3

With that, I'll now hand it back to Kent.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Neil. Turning to Slide 15, I will cover the significant yet necessary actions we are taking to rebaseline our cost structure, while allowing us to maintain our leadership position and preserve future growth. Let me start with our new operating structure on Slide 16. Over the past several months, we've evaluated multiple organizational models, balancing cost with an agile go to market approach. Following this review, we announced a new operating structure, transitioning to a fully integrated functional model to deliver significant cost savings and maintain our long term competitiveness.

Speaker 2

This slide shows our leadership team with several title and role changes to reflect our new structure. From a financial reporting perspective, we will continue to report across our 3 segments of energy storage, specialties and kitchen. Our fully integrated organizational structure is designed to flex with the complexities of our markets and to strengthen our core capabilities in a cost effective way to maintain our leadership position. Turning to Slide 17. It's important to put our latest actions in context of the series of self help steps we have been progressing for several months as we navigate the current business environment.

Speaker 2

Albemarle continues to act urgently across 4 key areas: optimizing our conversion network, improving cost and efficiency, reducing capital expenditures and enhancing financial flexibility. Our actions are broad based and designed to maintain our long term competitive advantage in light of market conditions. And given the dynamic environment we continue to face, we are always adding to our list of potential actions so that we are ready to pivot as necessary. I'm confident in the team's ability to deliver these improvements based on our performance to date. We highlight that on Slide 18.

Speaker 5

Here is

Speaker 2

a summary of our progress on the cost savings and cost flow initiatives cash flow initiatives introduced in January July of this year as well as the additional actions we're announcing today. All these programs are in execution and the January July actions are on track or ahead of plan, demonstrating our sharp focus on operational efficiency and proven ability to execute. Regarding the $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of cost improvements we announced today, we expect to achieve a 40% to 50% run rate by the end of this year. Additionally, we plan to reduce our 2025 CapEx to between $800,000,000 $900,000,000 down about 50% versus 2024. How we got to these cost out and CapEx targets was through rigorous analytics that involved a combination of robust peer benchmarking and bottoms up project planning to estimate target savings.

Speaker 2

Over the quarter, we analyzed spend across 3 categories: non manufacturing cost, specifically SG and A and R and D manufacturing cost and capital expenditures. Our levers to deliver the non manufacturing and manufacturing cost and productivity savings are detailed on Slide 19. Our total cost out opportunity of $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 includes approximately $150,000,000 in manufacturing opportunity split between cost reductions like energy and maintenance efficiencies and increased volume through plant ramps, yield improvements and other areas. The $150,000,000 to $250,000,000 of non manufacturing cost improvement follows a robust benchmarking review with the assistance of a third party consultant. We evaluated and analyzed our non manufacturing cost structure against like sized peers in lithium and other related industries like specialty chemicals and mining.

Speaker 2

The biggest driver of these non manufacturing savings is the change to our operating structure. The integrated model we made effective November 1 allows us to consolidate activities and reduce duplicative work, optimizing management layers and increasing efficiency. Other key drivers include shifting more activities to established hubs in low cost jurisdiction and leveraging technology to reduce manual work. We will continue to internally track our actions and progress through an established program management office, which will be laser focused on these initiatives and leveraging our ability to execute. Slide 20 breaks down the 3rd leg of our work, which is the reduction of our 2025 capital expenditures by more than $800,000,000 versus 2024.

Speaker 2

Overall, we are targeting sustaining CapEx of 4% to 6% of net sales, in line with historical performance and specialty chemical averages. Though we have pulled down our spending, we will continue to invest in critical health, safety, environmental and site maintenance projects. Through our disciplined capital allocation, we will maintain our industry leading resource base in a phased manner. Additional growth capital will be limited to primarily high return brownfield expansions and productivity improvements. Moving to Slide 21.

Speaker 2

The actions we are taking are designed to maintain Albemarle's significant competitive advantages and position us for long term value creation, which is encapsulated by our strategic framework shown on Slide 23. Our strategy is unchanged, but as always, we will adjust our execution to pivot and pace with the dynamic markets we serve. Our strategic framework continues to guide how we operate Albemarle as we lead the world in transforming essential resources into critical ingredients. The resources we provide play a critical role in areas with a compelling long term growth profile, and we have competitive strengths that will allow us to navigate the environment highlighted in more detail on Slide 23. First, our world class resources are arguably the best in the industry with large scale, high grade and therefore low cost assets.

Speaker 2

In energy storage, we have access to some of the highest grade resources in both hard rock in Australia and brine in Chile. Similarly, in specialties, we are the only producer with access to both Tier 1 bromine resources globally in Jordan and the United States. 2nd, our leading process chemistry know how is key to achieving further productivity and cost improvements safely and sustainably. At both the Salar and Magnolia, we have evaluated a wide range of direct lithium extraction options and are piloting solutions. 3rd, we have a pipeline of high impact innovative solutions in both bromine and lithium.

Speaker 2

Our research, testing and piloting facilities in North Carolina, Louisiana and Germany allow us to participate in differentiated high margin segments and support our customer specific requirements. 4th, Albemarle's leading industry position as a partner of choice is demonstrated through our partnerships with iconic pioneering companies. Both our businesses have high Net Promoter Scores with significantly positive gaps relative to competitors, reflecting long standing successful relationships with major customers. And we are increasingly recognized for the good work we do and the good that our work is doing. For example, we were recently named as one of the world's best companies by Time, demonstrating our commitment to creating a more resilient world and advancing the sustainability objectives of our customers.

Speaker 2

In summary, on Slide 24, Albemarle delivered another solid performance in the 3rd quarter, including higher volumes in Energy Storage and Specialties and year over year improvements in adjusted EBITDA for Specialties and Kitchen. We've maintained our full year 2024 outlook considerations, thanks in part to enterprise wide cost improvements, strong energy storage project ramps and contract performance. We are focused on taking broad based proactive steps to control what we can control and ensure we are competitive across the cycle. Albemarle remains a global leader with a world class portfolio and vertical integration strength. I am confident we are taking the right actions to maintain our competitive position and to capitalize on the incredible long term opportunity in our markets.

Speaker 2

I look forward to seeing some of you face to face at upcoming events listed here on Slide 25. And with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to begin the Q and A portion.

Operator

We will now move to our Q and A portion. Our first question is from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc. Aleksey, your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning. With lower fixed cost next year and some volume growth, can you keep your EBITDA at least flat if prices don't change or do you expect an increase or decline?

Speaker 4

So, okay, so that's a 25 question as we go into it. So, and just to be clear, we're not going to give an outlook for 25 on this, but we can give you some kind of puts and takes off of 24. Neil, you want to take that?

Speaker 5

Yes, sure. Good morning, Alexei. So yes, just we're obviously working through our 2025 outlook, right now. So it's a little premature for for us to talk about that. We'll talk about that on the next earnings call.

Speaker 5

But just to give you a couple of puts and takes here. So obviously, where pricing is today, that's something that you can observe and relative to the lower end of our guidance range today, we're probably 20% to 25%. Market pricing is below the average that we've achieved in 2024 and so you can kind of build that if you assume today's prices kind of roll into next year, that gives you a thought of what to build in for in terms of a headwind for pricing. I'd also point you to, remember that in Q2, we had a bump up in our equity earnings from the Talison JV, because we had an unusually high off take by our partner at the JV and so we had about $100,000,000 uplift in the Q2 and I don't expect that to repeat in 2025 as well. Now on the opposite side of that is, as you mentioned, our fixed cost, you should expect our fixed costs are going to come down.

Speaker 5

We've, had the actions that we've announced today, the $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of cost and productivity actions. We expect at the end of this year that we'll be at that 40% to 50% run rate. So that is savings that you can start to build into 2025 and of course, we'll continue to build on those savings as we go through the through the year. And then of course, we're also still ramping our our plants, especially in in the lithium business And so you should expect that our fixed assets are going to continue to ramp as we go through 2025. So just a few puts and takes to think about things as you go through 2025.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Neil. And maybe to follow-up on the last point, you cut your CapEx for 2025. How is it affecting your volumes next year? And if you can provide any comments about volume growth

Speaker 4

next year in lithium? Yes. I don't mean the CapEx cuts we're doing now won't impact volume, our forecast for volume for next year. Those are that's further out and then us getting just tighter on our CapEx program. So we're still we look at I think we previously talked about 20% growth through 'twenty seven, some of the CapEx cuts we've done and taking some volume out, that's probably 15%, CAGR through 'twenty seven.

Speaker 4

So it's a little bit longer term, it's not so much in 25%.

Speaker 5

Yes. And Alexei, maybe just to pile on to that, the growth that I'm talking about for 2025 is obviously driven by assets that are already built and continuing to ramp. So like the Salar Yield Improvement Project, Meishan in China, Kemerton in Australia. So those are things that have been ramping in 2024 and will continue to ramp in 2025.

Operator

Our next question is from John Roberts with Mizuho. John, your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thank you. On slide 8, in that 4th quarter improved margin guidance for Energy Storage, what are you assuming for Talison equity income in the Q4? And what's the Talison CapEx for 2024 2025? Yes.

Speaker 5

So, John, this is Neil again. So, when you think about equity income for next quarter, I think your assumption should be I mean, basically, spot pricing has been pretty flattish if you look at Q3 into Q4. So I think you should think about something kind of similar to what we've experienced in the Q3, all things being equal. And then I think the second part of your question, can you repeat that again?

Speaker 7

The budget for 2025 yet and what do you think their 2024 CapEx comes in at?

Speaker 5

Yeah. So it's it's it is definitely premature for me to talk about, the CapEx budget for 2025. For sure, there is capital that the JV continues to need to spend with regards to the CGP 3 asset. An asset that, will continue to be built. It will be finished up in 2025 and we expect it to be actually starting up as we get towards the end of 2025.

Speaker 5

But, John, we're literally working through the Talison budget with the JV and with the partners right now. So it's a little premature for me to speak to that. We should have more to say on the next earnings call.

Speaker 7

And what did you have to agree to or pay in order to get the revised financial covenants?

Speaker 5

Yes. John, I won't give you the exact number, but it was a very small amount. You should think about it being far less than $1,000,000

Operator

Our next question is from David Deckelbaum with Cowen. David, your line is open.

Speaker 8

Thanks for the time this morning. I was curious, you received some questions on the impact of the CapEx cuts on your long term growth profile. The reduction of that $800,000,000 $900,000,000 as

Speaker 4

you go through this strategic review, is that

Speaker 8

where we should think of approximately maintenance capital or as we get into 26 and beyond, could we see numbers quite

Speaker 9

a bit below those levels?

Speaker 4

Yes. So we're, so look, we're getting we're tightening down on maintenance capital and we're targeting a range of 4% to 6% of revenue at a normalized level. So you'll see us a little bit above that this year because we think pricing is below a normalized level. So we're a little above that, but we're also working to tighten that up. And then you see growth capital in there for high return projects, productivity type projects, brownfield type expansions, which are high return and quick paybacks.

Speaker 4

So that's kind of how what we've got built into that $800,000,000 $900,000,000 and we'll continue to work on that. It depends on the opportunities that we have, but we'll continue to focus. But we're from a maintenance capital standpoint, we're trying to be in that range of $4,000,000 to $6,000,000 on a normalized basis and

Speaker 5

we're a

Speaker 4

little ahead of that for this year or for next year, sorry. Appreciate that.

Speaker 8

And then just continuing with just the theme of cash preservation, what's the outlook for the next several quarters in terms of cash conversion? Obviously, this quarter, there was some working capital management that really helped that conversion and helped kind of fortify the balance sheets. I'm curious how you think about the next several quarters ahead of us here.

Speaker 4

Yes. So, Neil can give us some specifics on that. But we're very focused on it. Some of our key metrics around that is cash conversion. So, cash flow, everything around that, but a key management metric that we're focused on is cash conversion.

Speaker 4

You saw a big number this quarter. We obviously can't repeat that. So, it will come off that. We're above historic levels that where we've operated historically, but we're focused on driving that conversion number up. Neil, do you want to make any specific comment?

Speaker 4

Yes, just

Speaker 5

to add to that, Ken. So absolutely, I'll double down on what Ken said that we obviously have a very strong focus internally on cash generation, cash conversion and driving, to that free cash flow, breakeven point in the future. And we're continuing every quarter to work on this. Several things that we're, we've got in flight is obviously working capital management is, is very much front and center. We have the cost and productivity that we are already doing, but obviously today we've announced even more, that we're doing and so we continue to drive on that.

Speaker 5

The other piece that will be very important for our overall cash flow generation is how we think about the dividends coming off of the Talison joint venture. One of the reasons that we mentioned in the deck that our our cash conversion is going to be lower in the Q4 is that at the moment, we see those those dividends from the Talison joint venture in the Q4 coming down. Right now, our assumption is they'll be 0. But obviously, as we get into 2025 and as we work through things with the JV, it will be very important to as we think through, the dividends that that JV can throw back to the partners.

Operator

Our next question is from Ben Isaacson with Scotia Capital. Ben, your line is open.

Speaker 10

Good morning. This is Apurva on for Ben. So my question for you is that, so you've discussed your leverage covenants providing substantial buffer. We thought kind of 2x spread in Q3. Is there any color that you can provide on the shape of those limits as they evolve through to 2026, moving specifically at Q2 and Q3 2025 where that lever the covenant limit rises to kind of 5.75 times.

Speaker 10

So any color there?

Speaker 5

Yeah. Purva, so, you know, essentially, the the shaping of that covenant waiver sort of follows recall that our covenant waiver is calculated on a trailing 12 month EBITDA. And so you can imagine that we've kind of shaped this based on how we look backwards at the shape of the EBITDA that we've generated so far in 2024 as well. So that's really how we've thought through, how the trailing 12 months might look like as we go forward and then shape the covenant waiver accordingly.

Speaker 10

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Steve, your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi, I have Rock Hoffman on for Steve Byrne. In 3Q, realized pricing energy storage has seemingly come in at a lower premium relative to the lithium carbonate market prices versus prior quarters. Was there any meaningful shift in the percent of contract pricing with 1 quarter lags and pricing floors? And what percent of the 2 thirds contract this figure has pricing for us?

Speaker 4

Yes. So I don't there's really no change in the contracts that rolled off during the quarter. So that's I'm not sure, so that is a little different than the way that I think about it. But the contract really they haven't changed. So it's the mix of where those customers are and where that volume gets taken is how your average price moves.

Speaker 4

And we're I don't think we're going to say anything more than we have said before about the contracts and the floors that we have. So we've got contract volume on about 2 thirds of it and some have floors and ceilings and others don't, not going to but it hasn't changed. Yes,

Speaker 12

I could just add, this is Eric, that during the quarter, we did see our highest volumes that we'll see of any quarter, to date and be higher than the Q4 as well. A lot of that was due to the timing of spot sales and spodumene sales, which would buy us the mix in a quarter and has. So I mean, I think you're noting something that is on target that there's a mix effect there. That's not a reflection of contract that I would wash out on a full year basis and be consistent with our guidance.

Speaker 11

Makes sense. And just a follow-up, given lower pricing being sustained, might you consider cutting operating rates to tighten the market rather than the aforementioned guided 15% year term CAGR growth in volume?

Speaker 4

Yes. So we look at everything. It's probably it's less a little bit about tightening the market, but where it makes sense for us to what our customer demand is, what we see volumes growing to and the mix about where we produce most cost effectively. So we're looking at everything, including operating rates at plants, but it's really more about the mix of our customers, the demand growth than it is about thinking about tightening the market.

Operator

Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 13

Neil, could I ask you on the $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 40% to 50% run rate by the end of this year. What then gives you such a wide range for I guess you're going to finish all off by the end of next year. But what would make it 300 and what would make it 400?

Speaker 4

I think that's I mean it's just it's a range that we're giving and some of the things that we're working through around that. So it's not all completely detailed out. So and there's a dynamic around that as we go. Some of it is around overhead, some of it's around operating costs, productivity improvements and things that we're doing at plant. So there's a range to give us a little bit of breathing room because we're the lower end would be fairly conservative and the upper end would be a bit of a stretch.

Speaker 4

I don't think it's any more sophisticated than that.

Speaker 11

Fair enough. And Kent, if I

Speaker 13

could ask you, as we look ahead, we're obviously at the bottom of the cycle. Let's assume the cycle turns. Let's assume prices go back and I'll make up a number $25,000 a ton and you clean up your balance sheet issues. What is Albemarle's strategy in lithium going

Speaker 8

to be? Is it just going to

Speaker 13

be a reversion to what you were doing prior to last down cycle where you want to get back into conversion and you want to go out and buy resources? Or are you going to do something different? Or are there things you're not going to do? How are you and how is the Board thinking about sort of where the company wants to be strategically going forward?

Speaker 4

Yes. So we've said and actually said in our prepared remarks that our strategy has not changed, but the way we're executing against it has. So, if we so and when we'll react to the market. So prices come back, To be honest, I think we're going to be a little conservative to make sure that they are going to stay there before we shift our plans around that. So we'll be we want to make sure if they move up that they're going to stay up and we're just not in another cycle.

Speaker 4

And I think right now we're focused on making sure that we put the cost structure in place to compete through the bottom of the cycle and we'll be able to we're trying to create the flexibility to pivot up if the market returns, but we're going to be a little conservative to make sure it really changed and we're just not in a cycle.

Operator

Our next question is with Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners. Kevin, your line is open.

Speaker 14

Hi, this is Matt Hautler on for Kevin McCarthy. During your cost structure review, what new processes did you learn from benchmarking lithium peers? And how do you plan to implement those at Albemarle? On Slide 19, it looks like there's a gap between the current non manufacturing costs at Albemarle and that of your median peer group. What did you identify as the source of that difference?

Speaker 4

So on the benchmarking, I'll take that. Sorry, we got a phone going off in the room. So on the benchmark, I'm not sure we learned any new processes from benchmarking our peers, but it's more about the cost of overhead, where people were operating and not is less about lithium peers than it was just about broad corporate cost structure, with people that have a footprint that looks a bit like ours, very global, with heavy manufacturing, those type pieces. I'm not sure we picked up any big process changes that we learned from our lithium peers. I think it's just more about the aspiration we took from a cost saving standpoint based on what we saw other corporates doing.

Speaker 4

And maybe, this is Neil, just

Speaker 5

to add to a couple of things. Look, as an organization standpoint, we were obviously positioned for growth historically and now in this new environment, we're moving to more of a cost focused organization. Time and again, that that, model that works is the functional model that we announced. And so, I think one of the key things that we saw is that there are ways to achieve what you need to from a strict functional model, standpoint. So that's one of the the key things as we functionalize the company.

Speaker 5

There are naturally gonna be cost and simplification opportunities.

Speaker 9

And then

Speaker 5

the other thing I'll point out too is that we have, 2, up and running and and very well, very well running back offices and those are areas that we can use much more efficiently especially in a functionalized model as well. So those are just a couple of examples. You see them on on slide, I think it's 19 as well. But, those are really some of the core areas where we are finding cost out opportunities.

Speaker 14

Thanks. And then could you comment on some of the recent supply curtailments that you've seen? Has there been any significant downward movement in lipidolite supply out of China or Africa? And given that you estimate 25% of the supply curve to be unprofitable, why do you think it's taken so long to see a significant downward momentum in supply?

Speaker 12

Yes. Good morning. This is Eric. So speaking on the labetalite, it was announced during the quarter and we've since been able to get corroboration although it isn't always clear in China, but the labetalite, one of the largest labetalite suppliers had gone down into care and maintenance taking some capacity offline, but there's still a Pedalite in the market. Obviously that's all in China.

Speaker 12

We've also seen continued growth in supply coming that's replacing that, serving the growing China market coming out of Africa. Where we've seen a lot of the shutdowns have been some of the or modulations in some cases has been out of the Western Australia sites and some delays on some of the brine projects that were more either greenfield or significant brownfield expansion have been pushed out. We could get in more detail, but that's a quick summary. As to why more has not come out, it is a little puzzling. It is a fragmented market.

Speaker 12

It is a market with significant Chinese presence today. And it's a market where you have a lot of young companies whose sole reason for existing is to raise a lithium project. They may have cash on their balance sheets and as long as they can continue to operate, they will do so. They don't have an alternative. So I think it's the maturity, maybe one way putting up this market is such it's going to take a little longer and that is reflected in our lower for longer view on pricing potentially, which is driving us our need to be competitive through the cycle and all these actions that we have talked about taking today.

Operator

Our next question is from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Market. Joel, your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning everyone. Just following up on that for my first question. Don't you think that more supply needs to come out of the market like real supply, not some projects 3 years from now, but real spodumene, real hard rock, real brine out of the market now to get prices going or what do you think needs to happen to get prices to recover? It seems like it can't just be demand, it's got to be supply at this point. Would you agree?

Speaker 4

Well, I think it's both, right? So we do think more supply needs to come out and then these prices persist, it will come out. It's a matter of how long it takes. And then and demand is still pretty strong, right? It's over 20%.

Speaker 4

It's been ticked up a little bit by some of the fixed storage volumes that in the last few quarters, a little stronger than we had anticipated, but it is both. It's both demand and supply and we do we need more supply to come out and we expect it to work at prices at these levels.

Speaker 11

There have been a lot of stories in the media the last few months about Albemarle maybe looking at some asset sales, whether it be your stake in Greenbushes or Talison, which I think you refuted publicly or

Speaker 9

had

Speaker 11

a retraction in the media, got a retraction made from that report in the media, but also maybe speculation to be considering selling your stake in Wazana. Could you just generally talk about if you're looking at any asset sale?

Speaker 4

Look, we're always looking at from a portfolio perspective. So, Ketchum is an example of that. We talked about that and said that's a non core asset that we look to sell. But Green Bushes, I mean, we are not when we're not we wouldn't speculate on rumors around that, but we did clarify green bushes, they're not something that we're thinking about selling.

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo. Michael, your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hi there. This is Abigail on for Mike. Just wanted to ask about the status of Kings Mountain, if there is any update in terms of cost or plans or anything like that?

Speaker 4

So Kings Mountain is a project we continue to push and invest in. So we're going through the permitting process and that process is on track. There's a number of permits that are necessary for that and it's a pretty long timeframe to secure all of those. But I would say, we continue to pursue that from a permitting standpoint. And the process is at this point, it's on track.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question is from Christopher Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Christopher, your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Hey, this is Harris Fine on for Chris. Thanks for taking my question. For my first one, it would be helpful to hear some of your thoughts on the implications from the election, how you're thinking about tariffs and EV subsidies and maybe how you're adapting strategy for that kind of environment? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. So, it is, well, it's a little early to talk about what a Trump administration may do. We know what they've talked about. We'll have to see what they do. But this the energy transition is kind of a global phenomenon that is happening.

Speaker 4

It's really driven first by China, Europe, probably the 2nd largest market in that and then North America. And I don't want to speculate on what Trump administration might do. We'll have to wait and see. I will say that we've worked across the aisle in around the U. S.

Speaker 4

And we have contacts there. We know what they had talked about, but I think we just have to wait and see what they do and then we will adjust to that. But it is a global market and this energy transition is happening and we're pretty well positioned around the globe to take advantage of that. We were our strategy had been to pivot to the West. We've kind of backed off that given that prices have been so low and economics of building that supply chain out in the West.

Speaker 4

We still hope to do that, but we have to wait and see what the Trump administration wants to do.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's helpful. And then for my second one, in slide 17, you mentioned potential upside actions accelerating productivity and reducing capital intensity even more. I guess maybe could you provide a little more detail as to what's on the table right now? Anything you can share as to what that might entail?

Speaker 9

Thanks.

Speaker 4

Look, I think we're working through this and we as we said before, we've given a range because and we're being pretty aggressive around that and it covers everything from overhead to R and D part of that and our manufacturing base. So there's some opportunities to take cost out of there. So I don't know that we want to speculate on those. We need to do the work and then we'll come back to it. I think first you'll see hopefully we'll be narrowing the range to the upside as we go through and execute against this.

Speaker 4

And then if we have anything new to report, we'll do that in time, but I'm not I don't want to get out in front of that.

Operator

Our next question is from Joshua Spector with UBS. Joshua, your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Yes, it's Chris Perrella on for Josh. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to follow-up on the contract outlook for lithium next year. I know it's 2 thirds under contract for this year. What are your expectations for the mix in 2025?

Speaker 7

And then I had a follow-up on use of cash in the Q4.

Speaker 4

So I guess as we go through this, so as the we're not our mix won't change materially, other than the fact that a lot of the growth will come on at spot volumes. And it may be under a contract, but it would be probably not with the same level of floors that we have in our current contract. So the growth kind of creates additional mix, if you will. So it's not really a change in those contracts that the existing contracts per se, but that new ones either that come on or the volume that we sell is on a spot basis, it's more reflective of the spot market.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Kent. And then, I guess for Neil, the use of cash in the Q4 from an operational standpoint is quite large. Could you just bucket or size out, expand upon what the cash outflow or the use of cash is going to be from an operational standpoint in the Q4?

Speaker 5

Yes. Let me maybe give you a couple of things to think about. So first of all, in the Q4, as I mentioned on a previous Q and A, we're right now not expecting a dividend from the Talison JV. If you go back and look at what we did in the Q3 or what we got in the Q3, you'd probably find that that dividend was in the, let's call it, $70,000,000 to $80,000,000 kind of range in the Q3 and so that's one piece that we won't, we're not expecting on in the, in the 4th quarter. The other piece is, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, one of the reasons that we there are 2 things behind our working capital performance in the Q3.

Speaker 5

The first we said was working capital management, which very much happened. We reduced our inventories in the quarter and we're still focused on on driving those to an efficient point by the end of the year. But we also talked about timing of working capital and what that was specifically is we had some items in a pay that moved from the Q3 into the Q4. So we'll eventually have to, obviously make those payments. And I won't give you the exact number here, but you can imagine that that's going to be in the tens of 1,000,000 of dollars as we finish up those payments.

Speaker 5

And then the last one is these, the payments related to the cost reduction, actions that we announced today. If you, go and look in our queue, I'm I don't know if you've had time to look at that, but we've breadboxed that and it's kind of in that $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 kind of cash outflow range as well. So that maybe gives you a few key buckets to think about, from an operating cash flow perspective.

Operator

Our next question is Patrick Cunningham from Citi. Patrick, your line is now

Speaker 9

open. Hi, good morning. This is Eric Zhang on for Patrick. On the 2025 CapEx guide, can you walk us through the actions you guys taken to bring down CapEx and what is contemplated? And are there any assets under consideration that could potentially go into care and maintenance?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 4

So, okay. Let me do the capital first. So and then you can help me on this a little bit, but we've looked across the organization and we've taken out. There are some growth projects that we have taken out of capital. We've tightened others up.

Speaker 4

And from a maintenance capital standpoint, we've gotten tighter on that, a little more rigorous. And as always said before, what we've kept in, we've got maintenance capital, what we think is minimum that we need. And again, we're targeting that 4% to 6% of revenue for in the range for maintenance capital and we're a little ahead of that for 25% because we just that's on a normalized revenue basis and we think we're below a normalized level given lithium prices. And we've got projects around either pretty short payback investment projects, whether they're for cost improvement or additional product that would be a high return, short payback type projects, we're still doing those and those larger growth projects, which is why we're we pulled back on our growth forecast out into the future because we're not doing some of those bigger projects that we had planned. And then the second part of the question, I'm sorry?

Speaker 4

Yes, another question. So we've done the train 2 at Kemerton in care and maintenance. And depending on where prices go, we will look at other assets both from a resource and conversion standpoint across the portfolio. It's something that we are that we will look at. We've not made decisions around that and some of those are required like JV decisions as well.

Speaker 4

So Wodgina is one where we're deciding about the number of trains that we operate at Wodgina, but it's something we have to agree with our joint venture partner. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions. I will now pass it back to Kent Masters for closing remarks.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you, Jimmy. Albemarle continues to deliver solid operational results due to our execution across the company. With proactive steps underway to reduce cost and drive performance, we are well positioned to take advantage of the long term growth opportunities across our end markets. Thank you for joining us today and please stay safe.

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Earnings Conference Call
Albemarle Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00