TPI Composites Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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November 7, 2024

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to TPI Composites Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jason Wegman, Investor Relations for TPI Composites. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. I would like to welcome everyone to TPI Composites' 3rd quarter 2024 earnings call. We will be making forward looking statements during this call that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially. A detailed discussion of applicable risks is included in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on our website, tpicomposites.com. Today's presentation will include references to non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn the call over to Bill Siwek, TPI Composites' President and CEO.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jason. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. In addition to Jason, I'm here with Ryan Miller, our CFO. Please turn to Slide 5. Our Q3 was a big improvement over the first half of the year as we were able to post positive adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flows driven by the actions we've taken to restructure our portfolio and transition 10 lines to next generation workhorse blades.

Speaker 2

It's also nice to get back to growth mode as our sales grew 23 percent sequentially over the Q2 of this year and 3% over the Q3 of last year. We believe our strategic positioning with our key customers will enable sustained long term growth. We continue to engage in productive discussions with our customers to understand their priorities and collaborate on mutual success. As quality remains paramount, we have continued to maintain a measured and controlled approach to increasing production on new lines in Mexico to ensure a smooth transition. We remain confident in our ability to meet customer demand and anticipate finishing the year on a strong trajectory for 2025.

Speaker 2

Discussions with customers on further expansion of our footprint continue. We've agreed with GE Vernova to reopen our Iowa plant in mid-twenty 25 to support their 2 megawatt platform, which has proven to be a popular option for repowering. Discussions with other OEMs are progressing based on expected U. S. Market expansion where we have recently secured additional U.

Speaker 2

S. Manufacturing capacity as well as to serve the burgeoning onshore wind market in India as well as the Turkey market given the recent announcements by the Turkey government to increase its wind capacity 3 fold to 30 gigawatts by 2,035. Although the details on local content are still being finalized, it is anticipated that much of what will ultimately get installed in locally or will provide additional incentives for locally produced blades. We see this development as a potential positive for our long term operations in Turkiye. From an operational perspective, sales for the quarter were $380,800,000 and while impacted by slower than originally planned production ramps, we were in line with our expectations and full year guidance.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA of $8,000,000 in the quarter marks our expected return to positive EBITDA. However, it was lower than expected due to several factors. First, our measured approach to transitions and startups to ensure adherence to increased quality standards for new blades and complex blade models extended our startup and transition timelines leading to about $15,000,000 in lower sales along with higher startup and transition costs at 2 of our facilities, which impacted our adjusted EBITDA by approximately $5,000,000 This approach, however, ensures we can deliver increased volumes in 2025 and beyond more efficiently and profitably. 2nd, inflation in Turkey led to a $4,000,000 negative impact. 3rd, we recorded a $7,000,000 change in estimate for legacy warranty matters account for updated information, revised inspection and repair procedures implemented during the quarter and of course inflation.

Speaker 2

Finally, to support demand needs for the U. S. Market in 2025 and beyond, we began investing additional resources to enable a 20 fourseven schedule on certain of our Mexico facilities. This will enable additional volume off the same number of lines with no or minimal CapEx, which will drive lower per blade costs and improve our long term competitiveness. When looking at our ongoing operations without the specific charges I just outlined, our adjusted EBITDA margin in the 3rd quarter would have been north of 6%, showing progress towards our long term EBITDA targets.

Speaker 2

Utilization in the Q3 jumped to 89% as 7 of the 10 lines in start up or transition achieved full rate production with the remaining three lines expected to get there in the first half of the fourth quarter. Globally, we delivered 601 blade sets representing 2.5 gigawatts of capacity during the quarter. Please turn to Slide 6. As we move into the Q4, all our regions are expected to be EBITDA positive with anticipated utilization rates over 90%. The 4th quarter is also expected to be our strongest free cash flow generation quarter of the year.

Speaker 2

Our continued focus on lean principles and quality management has enhanced our production quality and improved our cost structure, but we still have significant opportunities. So we'll continue to focus on eliminating waste and streamlining processes to achieve higher efficiency and reduced operating costs. Moving forward, we will continue to invest in innovation and technology ensuring we strengthen our competitive edge and position TPI as the premier blade provider in the onshore market. Our supply chain continues to operate effectively with overall raw materials estimated to decrease year over year in 2025 by nearly 8%, while logistics costs have been somewhat volatile during 2024, given multiple global events, our procurement strategies have minimized any operational and financial impacts. We expect the same during 2025.

Speaker 2

With respect to the wind market, geopolitical events around the world have accelerated regional needs for energy independence and security. The global demand for clean energy continues to rise driven by factors such as the growing need for data centers, semiconductor chip manufacturers, the adoption of electric vehicles, the electrification of buildings and the desire to provide for this through net zero sources. Over the course of the past few years, we have seen numerous government policy initiatives aimed at expanding the use of renewable energy, including the passing of the IRA in the U. S. And several policy initiatives in the EU that are expected to simplify regulations, speed up permitting and promote cross border projects to accelerate climate neutrality.

Speaker 2

We expect these trends in governmental policy will enable long term revenue growth in the global onshore wind industry. Notwithstanding the recent U. S. Election results, we are encouraged by the near term demand we are seeing from our customers and therefore anticipate continued revenue growth for TPI in the U. S.

Speaker 2

In 2025. We expect this growth will be supported by blade lines operating at near full capacity throughout 2025 along with the planned reopening of our Iowa blade plant by mid-twenty 25. While the past 9 months have presented challenges, we believe we are strategically positioned with the right customers and blade types to thrive in the U. S. Market for years to come.

Speaker 2

Although it is too early to assess the impact of the outcome of the U. S. Election, many analysts believe that if President-elect Trump tries to roll back the current administration's climate agenda, including the IRA in part or in full, U. S. Wind and solar sectors will remain resilient due to a strong state level support, including significant renewable manufacturing investment in red states, increasing private sector demand for power that will dictate an all of the above approach to capacity deployment and a relatively strong Republican support in Congress.

Speaker 2

Turning to Europe, long term onshore market growth remains in sight. However, these markets are dealing with many of the same issues as in the U. S. Namely inflation, permitting, transmission, supply chain disruptions and labor availability. Historically, we have serviced the European market from our plants in Turkey A.

Speaker 2

However, the hyperinflationary environment that we have experienced in recent years in Turkey A is not expected to subside anytime soon. And although we can pass some of the incremental costs to our customers, these incremental costs make us less competitive into the EU as well as less profitable. Furthermore, while we have competed successfully with Chinese blade manufacturers for years, their recent aggressive push supported by the Chinese government to expand their capacity for Europe has added to the challenging competitive environment for supply into the EU. Unlike the U. S, which has implemented tariffs and generous tax laws to encourage near shoring and domestic manufacturing, the EU has not yet taken as aggressive an approach to help level the playing field for component suppliers like PPI.

Speaker 2

Nordex, our largest customer in Turkey has 8 production lines scheduled to expire by the end of 2025. Additionally, they have 2 lines in India that expire at the end of 2024. Nordex has informed us that they will not renew the 2 lines in India. However, we have already replaced those lines with 2 lines for Vestas. While we are committed to our long term Turkey and elsewhere, it is uncertain whether or not they will extend their contracts beyond 2025 at this time.

Speaker 2

However, I would suggest that should the recently announced plans of the Turkish government play out as we expect, demand for that capacity should be robust and this would position Turkey A as one of the largest wind markets in the region. Given the market share enjoyed by both Nordex and Enercon, both companies stand to benefit from this development. Given the challenges experienced in the Q3, along with the extended transitions and startups, we are reducing our adjusted EBITDA outlook for the year to a loss of approximately 2%. However, the 4th quarter is still expected to be EBITDA positive and the strongest free cash flow generation quarter of the year, leading us into what we expect to be a much stronger year financially in 2025. Our current thinking on 2025 in context of the adjusted EBITDA target we have discussed the last few quarters has evolved based on updated information and customer decisions made in the last few months.

Speaker 2

While we are still working through our annual plan for 2025, some of these customer decisions are creating some headwinds are going to be difficult to offset in the near term. The 2 biggest challenges are related to inflation, particularly in Turkey A and demand in both Turkey A and India from Nordex. While it's still too early provide you with a lot of specificity and therefore formal guidance for 2025, we currently expect volumes for lines under contract in Turkey to be down approximately 40% in 2025 compared to previous expectations. These factors have created a volume shortfall for us compared to what we had previously anticipated in 2025. We are working to replace that volume as well as exploring other strategic alternatives to maximize the value of our Turkiye operations.

Speaker 2

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan to review our financial results.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Bill. Please turn to Slide 8. In the Q3 of 2024, net sales were $380,800,000 compared to $370,200,000 for the same period in 2023, an increase of 2.8%. Net sales of wind blades, tooling and other wind related sales increased by $6,900,000 or 1.9 percent to $369,100,000 for the 3 months ended September 30, 2024, as as compared

Speaker 2

to

Speaker 3

$362,200,000 in the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily due to higher average sales prices of wind blades due to changes in the mix of wind blade models produced, in particular, the startup of production at 1 of our previously idled facilities in Juarez, Mexico, favorable foreign currency fluctuations and an increase in wind blade inventory included in contract assets driven by the startups and transitions. The increase in wind blade inventory directly correlates to higher sales under the cost to cost revenue recognition method for our wind blade contracts. These increases were partially offset by a 10% decrease in the number of wind blades produced due primarily to the number and pace of start ups and transition and expected volume declines based on market activity levels. Field service inspection and repair service sales increased by $3,700,000 or 45.8 percent to $11,700,000 for the 3 months ended September 30, 2024 as compared to $8,000,000 in the same period in 2023.

Speaker 3

The increase was due primarily by the return of technicians deployed to revenue generating projects versus time spent on non revenue generating inspection and repair activities. Adjusted EBITDA was $8,000,000 for the 3 months ended September 30, 2024, as compared to adjusted EBITDA of $200,000 during the same period in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.1% as compared to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.1% during the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily driven by the absence of losses from our Nordex Matamoros facility, which was shut down at the end of the Q2 of 2024, benefits from foreign currency fluctuations, lower charges for changes in estimate for pre existing warranty campaigns, a reduction in general and administrative costs due to lower employee compensation costs and an increase in revenue. These improvements were partially offset by increased labor costs in Turkey and Mexico and higher start up and transition costs.

Speaker 3

Moving to Slide 9. We ended the quarter with $126,000,000 of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and $606,000,000 of net debt. Free cash flow was a negative $5,600,000 in the Q3 of 2024 compared to negative free cash flow of $20,800,000 in the same period in 2023. The net use of cash in the Q3 of 2024 was primarily due to interest and tax payments and capital expenditures, partially offset by positive adjusted EBITDA and other working capital changes. Notably, operating cash flow was a positive $1,000,000 in the quarter.

Speaker 3

We believe our current cash position provides us the flexibility to meet near term demands of the business and continue to invest in growth for lines under Rooftop today. In the Q4, we expect positive free cash flow on lower start up and transition costs, working capital improvements and positive EBITDA. A summary of our financial guidance for 2024 can be found on Slide 10. We are narrowing our full year 2024 revenue guidance to about $1,350,000,000 which

Speaker 4

is in the middle of

Speaker 3

the previously guided range of $1,300,000,000 to $1,400,000,000 For adjusted EBITDA, we are lowering our guidance to a loss of approximately 2% compared to the previous guidance of a positive adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 1 percent. This adjustment reflects the impact of our actual results in the Q3 as well as the quality focused moderation of our start ups and transitions. This adjustment also reflects investments we are making to divert some of our plants to 20 fourseven schedules, so we can produce more blades next year on our existing lines in Mexico to support strong demand in the U. S. And finally, similar to the Q4 of last year, we are planning to reduce our work in process inventory, which will create negative cost absorption impacts in our factories.

Speaker 3

This reduction is partially driven by 4 lines that will be transitioning over year end and we are also planning to drive our work in process inventory levels down to free up cash on our balance sheet. For the full year, our utilization guidance remains unchanged at 75% to 80%, and we anticipate capital expenditures of around $30,000,000 which is at the top end of our previously guided range of $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 These investments, including significant investments in innovation and technology, are driven by our continued focus on achieving our long term growth targets, which also include investments in new lines in Iowa and India in

Speaker 2

the Q4. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bill. Thanks, Ryan. Please turn to Slide 12. While we remain optimistic about achieving our long term targets, the timing has shifted to the right a bit based on overall market conditions, increased competition outside the U.

Speaker 2

S. And a more deliberate approach to transitions and startups to ensure initial blade quality for new designs and to ensure stability of the process to enable long term successful serial production. We are encouraged by the progress we've made over the past year, including shedding the losses from both the Nordex Matamoros plant and the automotive business, starting up or transitioning 10 new lines with workhorse blades and making significant improvements in streamlining operations and improving quality, all while doing it as safely as we ever have. We expect to close out 2024 with our best quarter financially in the year, while generating positive free cash flow and setting us up for a strong 2025. Before we open the call for Q and A, I want to once again extend my gratitude to all our TPI associates for their continued commitment and dedication to TPI and our mission to safely decarbonize and electrify the world.

Speaker 2

And I want to welcome Jennifer Lowery, our newest member of the Board of Directors effective as of November 13, 2024. Jen brings over 25 years of experience in the energy sector, including senior positions with Exelon, Constellation Energy and AES among others, and currently serves on the boards of Clearway Energy and MYR Group. Jen is a great addition to our board and I look forward to working with her in the future. I'll now turn the call back to the operator to open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for your questions. We'll go first to Eric Stine with Craig Hallum. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Operator

Mr. Stine, your line is open. Please check your mute button. We'll move next to Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you very much for taking our questions. Bill, I take your point that it's too early to kind of have a whole lot of visibility post election. But one of the things that has been thrown out there is potential for increased tariffs coming into the U. S.

Speaker 1

Can you just remind us on your contracts that you have with your facilities in Mexico, how do those contracts work? If there are new tariffs that come on in the middle of a contract, who bears that risk? And then kind of a quick follow-up on that point is, I mean, are there any kind of contingency efforts that you're looking at as far as potentially moving that production into the U. S?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, Mark, thanks for the question. I mean, we if you recall, way back in the day, there was a threat of tariffs before and we did a bunch of work there. It depends a little bit on the contract and on the terms. Generally, it would be included in the cost of the product tariff.

Speaker 2

But again, it's a little bit it gets a little specific by customer depending. So I can't give you a precise answer on that right now. But we'll obviously, we'll monitor that. We'll look at that, but I don't anticipate that being a big issue for us. And we are continuing to look at additional you might have picked up, we did secure some additional capacity in the U.

Speaker 2

S. And so we will continue to look at U. S. Capacity as well, but we don't anticipate we'll have any issues with what we've got in Mexico at this point.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks, Bill. And then Ryan, just a quick follow-up. Follow-up. So I take your point about kind of the volume in Turkey A down more than you're expecting more than you were previously expecting in 2025.

Speaker 1

The target that you've thrown out there for more than $100,000,000 in EBITDA next year, is that off the table now? Or are you able to provide any more color on what that could potentially look like?

Speaker 5

I guess what I can do is

Speaker 3

a couple of things. One, I think volume wise, we're still expecting growth next year on the top line. The strength that we have in the U. S. Market and some of the investments we're making to put a 20 fourseven ships in Mexico is a signal from us.

Speaker 3

We got really strong demand in the U. S. So I expect that volume to outpace that reduction that we quantify for Turkey. I think it's a little too early for us right now. We're currently reacting and planning and figuring out where we can optimize things.

Speaker 3

And so I kind of put you on hold until we get to when we announced Q4 earnings, we'll give you an update there on the earnings side of things.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking the question. Let me zoom in on Turkey as well. The fact that you're seeing, as you said, 40% lower demand versus prior expectations, is that relating to lower wind newbuilds in Turkey domestically? Or is it something happening in the broader European conversation?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, Pavel. Thanks for the question. I think it's more the latter. There's some of it is a shift to Chinese suppliers and part of it is lower volume or lower demand next year, whether it be in Turkey or in the broader, the wider European market.

Speaker 2

It's a combination of both.

Speaker 5

Why do you think Europe is struggling? I mean, I asked because it was less than 2 years ago, Europe was running out of gas quite literally and we saw record new builds.

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a lot of things. It's not that there's not demand. I mean they've got but they have similar challenges in Europe as we do in the U. S. As it relates to permitting, transmission, the grid.

Speaker 2

It's different country by country. So there are a lot of different factors there. So it's really there's a desire for it. There's the demand for it. We've got the capacity to deliver it, but it's really challenges around more of the regulatory side than anything that's creating the problems or the delays, I should say.

Speaker 5

Okay. Last question. What is the latest on the kind of service operations and maintenance business unit that you guys have been working on?

Speaker 2

Yes. So you might have heard, we grew at fairly substantially the top line this last quarter. And that's partially just a shift of resources from some of the warranty and spare and inspection work we were doing into more revenue generating work. We're going to continue to grow that business. We see pretty healthy growth next year, both in the U.

Speaker 2

S. And in Europe. So that is that does remain a focus for us, Pavel to continue to grow that business alongside our manufacturing business.

Speaker 5

And is that line item EBITDA positive?

Speaker 2

Yes. It was pretty close to breakeven the last couple of quarters because of the amount of work that we were doing on inspection and repair, but moving forward, it's certainly EBITDA positive.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks very much.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Pavel.

Operator

Our next question will come from Justin Clare with Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi, good afternoon.

Speaker 6

Hey, Justin.

Speaker 4

Hey. So I wanted to just dig into Iowa a little bit more here. I was wondering if you could just share specifically how many lines are being added in that facility? And then if you could talk about CapEx requirements or the potential start up costs that could be incurred in ramping that up? And then just in terms of the timing, how should we think about the revenue impact there?

Speaker 4

Could you be kind of

Speaker 2

ramping volumes in Q3?

Speaker 4

And then there? Could you be kind of ramping volumes in Q3 and then at full capacity in Q4? Or, how should we think about that? Yes. So the current plan is two lines,

Speaker 2

ramping in the back half of the year as you suggest. So ramping in Q3, getting up to kind of full production speed by the Q4. Pretty minimal CapEx, Justin. I mean, this we're going to be building the same blade that we were building before in that factory. So there's not a ton of CapEx.

Speaker 2

There's a little bit of upgrade that we need to do, but pretty minor. And then startup costs will be pretty minor as well, a couple of $1,000,000 But for the year, it will be about breakeven, from an EBITDA standpoint for next year. So we'll have some start up costs early that will then recapture as we begin delivering blades in the back half of the year.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. And then I thought you mentioned earlier that you did secure some additional capacity in the U. S. It sounds like that's beyond this facility.

Speaker 4

I was wondering if you could just elaborate on that that a little bit. Is that a greenfield facility or another blade facility that you may be taking over? And then any sense for timing and the amount of capacity that could be added would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a brownfield, so it's a former blade facility. The capacity depending on the size of the blade is upwards of 4 lines of capacity And timing is still to but we're working on a number of options there. But we do have the capacity and it does provide us with some it's a very good geographic location to serve some pretty important and large wind projects. So we're pretty excited about it long term. But that's more to come on that probably early next year.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. I appreciate it.

Speaker 2

You

Operator

bet. We'll return to Eric Stine with Craig Hallum. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hey, Bill. Thanks for taking the question. You bet.

Speaker 6

Hey, I'm jumping around on calls. So I can pretty much guarantee I'm asking one that you've already addressed. But I know you tempered all right. Well, you tempered 24 EBITDA guidance a little bit. Just curious, reading through the deck, I didn't see it stated, but how you feel about you previously said $100,000,000 plus in EBITDA in 25, I mean given the confidence you are talking about in the U.

Speaker 6

S, is it fair to say that that is something that you feel good about?

Speaker 3

Eric, this is Ryan. Hey, I'll start with, we as far as where we think we're going next year, we're still digging into things right now. It's been a pretty dynamic environment with some of the volume in Turkey A. And I would also say the inflation impacts in Turkey A, they're probably a little outsized from what we would have expected a few months back for what we're thinking we're going into the year with. So we're doing some pretty detailed planning right now.

Speaker 3

And again, I'd just say stay tuned. We will provide guidance and our expectations as part of our Q4 call, but we do want to just make sure we're being as transparent as possible that we do see some volume that's weakened now and Turkey, particularly with Nordex.

Speaker 2

With that said though, Eric, I mean with the volume decline in Turkey A, we've actually going to we're actually going to see pretty significant growth in the U. S. So top line wise, we expect to be better in 2025 than we are in 2024. So notwithstanding the challenges for the European market, top line, we look pretty good. But as Ryan mentioned, there are some other headwinds that we're working through.

Speaker 6

Yes, totally understand. But it is fair to say that I mean, it seems pretty clear to me that even in a quarter, I mean, you are already positive about the U. S, but even a quarter later, you are more positive, incrementally more positive on the U. S. Is that fair?

Speaker 2

Yes, we feel we have again, just based on what our customers are asking for, we feel we're going to have a very strong 2025.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. You bet. Thank you.

Operator

It appears that we have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor over to Bill Siwek for any additional or closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator, and thank you again everybody for your time today and the continued interest and support of CPI. Look forward to the next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

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