NASDAQ:SEAT Vivid Seats Q3 2024 Earnings Report $2.71 +0.01 (+0.37%) Closing price 04/25/2025 04:00 PM EasternExtended Trading$2.72 +0.00 (+0.18%) As of 04/25/2025 04:48 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast Vivid Seats EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.04Consensus EPS $0.03Beat/MissBeat by +$0.01One Year Ago EPS$0.07Vivid Seats Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$186.61 millionExpected Revenue$186.61 millionBeat/MissMet ExpectationsYoY Revenue GrowthN/AVivid Seats Announcement DetailsQuarterQ3 2024Date11/7/2024TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateThursday, November 7, 2024Conference Call Time8:30AM ETUpcoming EarningsVivid Seats' Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Tuesday, May 6, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 8:30 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Q1 2025 Earnings ReportConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Vivid Seats Q3 2024 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrNovember 7, 2024 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 11 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning, and welcome to the Vivid Seats 3rd Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Following management's prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q and A. I would now like to turn the call over to Kate Efraim. Speaker 100:00:17Good morning, and welcome to Vivintheap's Q3 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Kate Africk, Head of Investor Relations at Vivintheap. Joining me today to discuss Vivintheap's results are Stan Chia, Chief Executive Officer and Larry Fay, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to our Q3 earnings press release, which we released earlier this morning. The press release as well as supplemental earnings slides are available on the Investor Relations page of Vivitsit's website at investors. Speaker 100:00:53Vivitsit.com. During the course of today's call, management may make forward looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks and uncertainties described in our earnings press release, our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks and our other filings with the SEC. On today's call, we will refer to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins, which are non GAAP financial measures that provide useful information for our investors. To the extent reasonably available, a reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to their corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release and our supplemental earnings slides. Speaker 100:01:46And now, I would like to turn the call over to Stan. Speaker 200:01:50Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our strategy has always been to prioritize long term success by fostering stickiness in our marketplace for both buyers and sellers, and I am excited to share the progress we delivered on that front in the Q3. Staying true to that strategy, we operated with discipline and delivered solid Q3 financial results despite market headwinds that we believe will be temporary. Before discussing the market backdrop and the strategic progress that we delivered, I'd like to touch on our financial highlights, which Larry will cover in more detail. In the Q3, we delivered $187,000,000 of revenues $34,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA, including an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin. Speaker 200:02:40These results demonstrate our ability to deliver strong unit economics even when market factors are less favorable in the short term. To begin with, I'd like to shed some light on those market factors. Compared to record concert years in 20222023, we would consider 2024 as a digestion year for concert industry supply, with year over year declines seen most acutely in the Q3. As we and others in the industry have discussed, there was a notable reduction in stadium tour activity in 2024 compared to 2023 when many of the most popular artists played in the largest venues, which naturally command the highest prices. Partially counteracting this dynamic, concert ticket volumes have held up quite nicely in 2024 with many artists playing more shows, albeit in smaller venues that typically come with lower prices. Speaker 200:03:41We believe that the mix shift in 2024 away from concerts and away from stadium tour activity was a short term headwind that will soon abate. Looking ahead, we are now in the midst of concert on sale announcements for the 2025 calendar, which we expect should be a more normal year with concerts, including stadium shows growing again. Concert supply in 2024 was an anomaly, and we look forward to normalizing supply intersecting with long term tailwinds for live events next year and sustained and reliable concert growth going forward. We remain confident that the digestion that we are seeing in 2024 is a reflection of supply and not a reflection of demand. The ongoing strength that we are seeing in the industry in sports and theater is evidence of this dynamic. Speaker 200:04:33Overall, we believe that the demand for live events remains as robust as ever. Beyond the supply and demand backdrop, marketing intensity was high in the 3rd quarter, with certain competitors focused on growing volume where we believe marginal volume is uneconomic at least in the near term. We continue to focus on strong unit economics and fostering long term stickiness in our marketplace. Accordingly, we are building on the long standing strength of our business and are poised to capitalize upon any alleviation of competitive behavior or upon a normalizing market backdrop leveraging our investments that are focused on winning in the long term. Even as we continue to lean into long term initiatives that are driving our mix of repeat orders higher, new customer acquisition via performance marketing remains an important channel. Speaker 200:05:31Accordingly, we are excited that Adam Stewart has now officially joined our Board of Directors. As we briefly touched on last quarter, Adam joins us with almost 2 decades of experience at Google, including his current position overseeing advertising partnerships and integrated solutions, including Google.com. Adam's extensive knowledge will be very valuable as we seek to drive further efficiencies in this channel. Now I'd like to turn to the strategic progress that we delivered in the Q3. Efficiently increasing brand awareness continues to be a long term priority, helping to drive customer acquisition and ultimately the household penetration of our brand with key audiences. Speaker 200:06:18In the Q3, we announced a new strategic partnership with Brandon Marshall's athlete led media platform I'm Athlete. The former NFL All Pro receiver has built an impressive platform portfolio with a wide reaching and engaged audience base that is passionate about entertainment, sports and live events. In addition to exclusive content creation featuring athletes and celebrities, Vivid Seat's key brand differentiators are being promoted to millions of sports fans across those channels through native, organic mentions during episodes and sponsored content. This unique partnership is a new way for us to engage with fans, growing our brand awareness in new channels and also meet the growing consumer demand for best in class and compelling content. Our partnership with IAA already appears to have accelerated our impact in social channels. Speaker 200:07:16In conjunction with these efforts, we are also leveraging new and expanded strategies that drive engagement and grow affinity for our brand, including expanding our social presence, which is approaching 400,000 followers. We also continue to differentiate our platform and drive marketing efficiencies through game center, which is similarly approaching 400,000 lifetime users playing games in our app. As we've shared in the past, our engagement efforts are proving successful with game center users frequently browsing tickets while playing, which is translating to app orders. We are excited to share that 95% of ticket orders from game center users now occur within our app, incurring nearly 0 marketing expense. Orders from repeat customers, whether driven through game center engagement or through other initiatives such as our industry leading Vivid Seats Rewards program are highly accretive and we look forward to incremental efficiencies as our investments in these initiatives have more room to run. Speaker 200:08:22Next, I'd like to take a moment to highlight the progress and efficiencies that we are continuing to drive through synergies with our Vegas.com acquisition. Early on, we began cross listing complementary Vivid Seats inventory on Vegas dotcom. We are excited to share that orders from cross listed inventory are run rating at approximately 1% of our marketplace GOV. Additionally, as we discussed last quarter, our cross sell campaign to convert vegas.com customers to Vivid Seat's customers in their home markets is off to a promising start with nearly 50% of cross sell emails being opened by customers. This campaign is now bearing fruit and converting to incremental orders and new Vivid Seats customers. Speaker 200:09:08As more Vegas.com cohorts age to their next live event purchase back home, we believe this channel will ultimately be another contributor to profitable GOV growth. As we think about our TAM, we continue to make great progress with our investments in strategically building out our global platform. As we've discussed previously, we are internationalizing our platform and capabilities to scale efficiently as we expand our TAM across geographies. We remain focused and on track to launch operations in select geographies by the end of the year. On the seller side of our marketplace, we are excited to announce that our innovative pricing tool, Skybox Drive, recently exited its beta phase and was met with rapid demand. Speaker 200:09:58As a result, we are already in the processes of onboarding over 100 users and also have a sizable wait list of prospective users. We are pleased with the reception of our product, which is turnkey integrated and exclusive to our Skybox ERP and leverages the power of Vivid Seats marketplace data. We look forward to driving incremental adoption with the hundreds of additional Skybox sellers on our waitlist. It's important to remember that Skybox remains the industry leading ERP with over 55% of our professional sellers exclusively using our ERP to run their businesses. The added functionality of Skybox Drive is a significant step that will further enforce the stickiness of Skybox and fortify our already leading position with professional sellers. Speaker 200:10:52Lastly, I wanted to share that we recently announced Vivid Seats was included in Newsweek's list of America's Best Customer Service 2025 in the ticketing category for the 5th time. As a company that is focused on rewarding fans and creating the most exceptional experiences in our industry, we are proud to be recognized again by Newsweek for our excellence in customer service. In summary, we made substantial strategic progress during the quarter, particularly through unlocking synergies with Vegas.com and with the full launch of Skybox Drive. We are confident that the differentiated products and initiatives fostering stickiness to our platform will drive long term growth and value in our marketplace, both in North America and abroad with our imminent international launch. In the meantime, we will continue to operate with the discipline and flexibility that we demonstrated in the Q3. Speaker 200:11:49With the anticipated return of concert growth in 2025, we expect to return to organic growth and to continue delivering a double digit growth CAGR over the long term. With that, I will turn it over to Larry for a more detailed review of the quarter. Speaker 300:12:05Thanks, Stan. In the Q3 of 2024, we generated $872,000,000 of marketplace GOV, a 13% year over year decline. The drop in marketplace GOV was driven by an 11% year over year reduction in average order size and a 2% year over year decline in total marketplace orders. Our lower average order size is a result of pressure on concert AOS, resulting in part from a softer stadium lineup, along with our acquisitions bringing lower average order sizes. Despite the soft AOS seen in the Q3, since 2019, our average order size has grown organically at a 2% CAGR and we continue to expect a 3% to 4% AOS CAGR moving forward. Speaker 300:12:52I would also note there were several large concert tour cancellations in the Q3, which were headwinds to marketplace GOV and total marketplace orders. We delivered $187,000,000 of revenues in the 3rd quarter, roughly flat year over year despite the decline in marketplace GOV. We delivered strong unit economics led by a 17.5% take rate, which was up 200 basis points year over year. We delivered $34,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the 3rd quarter, which was slightly higher year over year. We are pleased with our 18% adjusted EBITDA margin despite lower marketplace GOV than anticipated. Speaker 300:13:35Lastly, on guidance, we now expect 2024 marketplace GOV to be in the range of $3,800,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 2024 revenues in the range of $760,000,000 to 780,000,000 dollars and 2024 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $145,000,000 to $155,000,000 These revised ranges incorporate challenging concert supply dynamics as well as continued marketing intensity expected in the 4th quarter, along with a range of outcomes for remaining 2025 Concert On sales. We will continue to operate with discipline and anticipate the return of concert industry growth in 2025. Back to you, Stan. Speaker 200:14:18Thanks, Larry. Wrapping up, we delivered key strategic progress in the Q3 and continue to position our platform for long term growth and profitability. Strong consumer demand for live events continues and we expect an acceleration in industry growth in 2025 as favorable tailwinds for live events intersect with normalizing supply. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions. Operator00:14:44Thank you. We will now begin our question and answer session. Andrew Marotta with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question. Speaker 400:15:14Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could dig into the implied take rate guidance in 4Q a little bit. We saw 2Q, 3Q come up above recent trends and it looks like 4Q is maybe coming back down a little bit. So just wondering if you could get into some of the drivers behind that and maybe how your loyalty program is playing into that? Speaker 300:15:37Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Yes, I think as you noted strong performance on take rate in Q2 and Q3. I think that's a combination of a couple of factors, some of which we think will continue, some of which I think we want flexibility, right? So we're always looking to balance take rate and volume. Speaker 300:16:02And as you can imagine, if you try to push take rates, that puts pressure on volume and the inverse is also true. And depending on how market environments evolve, we want to make sure that we're retaining the ability to flex accordingly. The second piece I'd say, this will vary based on mix. But generally speaking, World Series is a quite high ticket or high AOS event. And when World Series increases as a percentage of the book of business, that will have a deflating effect on take rates. Speaker 300:16:43And I don't think it would be unreasonable to call the World Series matchup this year the dream scenario. And so while I think that's a very nice answer on a nominal basis when you look at percentage take rates, that will create a little bit of a downward pressure. Speaker 400:16:59Got it. Thank you. Yes, dream scenario, I think Yankee fans may argue with that, but maybe a higher level question as it relates to kind of the overall ecosystem and I'll jump back in the queue. But when you're talking about 2024 being a digestion year, I know normal has kind of been hard to come by since the pandemic. But in kind of a normalized environment, do you see this largely as a cycle like a couple of big years, the digestion year, or is it something that's kind of just idiosyncratic based on when big artists decide to tour? Speaker 300:17:35Yes, it's a great question. The phrase that we use most often on our side is event mix. And I think you can have multiple drivers of variance or multiple sign curves happening across the various leads and categories that can blend together into a more difficult to predict trend. So if you were to focus exclusively on concerts, which I think is the story of this quarter, when Q3, which is a bit more concert heavy, you saw particularly challenging comps where the lineup last year at the top of the ticket was quite strong and diversified across a number of artists. But the tippy top was particularly strong. Speaker 300:18:27You move into this year, just a different story, right, a more distributed number of artists playing at smaller venues. And so you had fairly meaningful headwinds there. Flip the script a little bit to sports. This year in Q1, we touched on a little bit, you had a really nice college football playoff matchup, lapping a not so good college football playoff matchup heading into 2025, you'll have expanded playoffs. So you're probably set up for another nice event mix there. Speaker 300:18:59Great World Series matchup this year, pretty poor World Series matchup from a ticketing standpoint last year. So those are competing. And then you go to theater, you had a record setting Matt Rife on sale and tour happening last year, not the same thing happening this year. And so you sort of have to map all those together. And across the categories, you can have tailwinds, headwinds and it adds to some of the challenge in precisely predicting where it will go. Speaker 300:19:28But I do think it is fair to assume some level of oscillation based on event mix, much of which is exogenous and not really indicative of fundamental trends. Speaker 400:19:39Understood. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it. Operator00:19:43Thank you, Andrew. Our next question will come from Maria Ripps. Go ahead, Maria. Speaker 500:19:52Great. Good morning and thanks so much for taking my questions. First, can you maybe talk about your expectations for the broader industry growth next year sort of given the potentially sort of more robust concert supply calendar comping a week here? I guess, how should we think about growth relative to a more normalized high single digit sort of growth rate? Speaker 200:20:13Hey, Maria, thanks for the question. Speaker 600:20:15Yes, look, I think as we've discussed on the prepared remarks and I think today, and I think what we've seen this year and maybe adding a little bit more color back to beyond the distribution of the artists on the concert side. I think you had a sort of a retrenchment or digestion of the venues as well where we certainly saw much larger concentration of arenas versus stadiums certainly reflected by others in the industry as well. And as we look forward to next year, we remain really bullish about the secular trends that we've seen in the category. We've certainly heard, I think, others in the industry remark about how there will be a return to stadium tours in strength next year. And I think we remain excited about that prospect. Speaker 600:21:09Certainly as we've been looking at it, we use the data that we have available tangibly and we remain I think optimistic and looking forward as the slate for next year continues to unveil itself. Speaker 500:21:22Got it. And then I just wanted to get a little bit more color sort of on your Q4 or full year guidance or implied Q4 guidance. So I think your prior guidance sort of suggested that this strong 2025 concert lineup should sort of support sales in Q4. Can you maybe just talk about what has changed here more recently? Is it just the timing of some of those events kind of with them shifting sort of later into the year? Speaker 500:21:49Or is there anything else sort of to keep in mind here, sort of understanding that sort of near term dynamics here a little bit weak? Speaker 300:21:59Yes. Thanks, Maria. I think there's 2 things happening. The first, I think we've commented on and you can see in the numbers softness in the concert play in Q3. And until the next wave of on sales happens in mass, I think you can presume that that softness would continue. Speaker 300:22:25So as you start moving into Q4, call it the softer than expected performance we saw in August and September in the concert space continues into October. It's not an unreasonable extrapolation. And then, yes, we have talked about hopes and expectations for a robust calendar. We've seen a few, right, Coldplay, Oasis, Rufus De Sole, not enough as of today to declare victory on it being a robust calendar. So there's still a fair bit of speculation. Speaker 300:23:05And so what we tried to strike was a balance where it's closer to reflecting what we know, while acknowledging that there's been positive comments. Those positive comments just haven't manifested in tangible reliable announcements in mass yet. Speaker 500:23:27Got it. Thank you so much. Operator00:23:30Thank you, Maria. Stand by for our next question. And our next question comes from Ryan Sigal. Go ahead, Ryan. Speaker 300:23:41Good morning, guys. Stan, you mentioned high marketing intensity. That's been a common theme now for several quarters. I guess it's consistent with our checks as well and Moody's actually cut their free cash flow estimate by nearly $200,000,000 and cut in half on one of your skilled competitors, which is evident of that. But given this ongoing headwind, does it make you rethink Vivid's near term and then maybe even longer term strategy on customer acquisition? Speaker 200:24:11Yes. Hey, Ryan, thanks for Speaker 600:24:12the question. Yes, I mean, look, I think spot on with what you've seen in your research, certainly when others go out and I think take aggressiveness to the point of certain uneconomic volume. I think we're always faced with decisions that we have to make both in the near term and the long term. And what I would say is, as you've seen evidence by I think our investments and certainly our results, we've always prioritized long term value, right? I think the investments that we make continue to differentiate our product ecosystems, continue to allow us almost if you think about mix to be fairly prescriptive and direct about the volume that we do target, right? Speaker 600:24:58I think we have the industry's leading loyalty program. You can certainly see us fortifying the products that we have across both sides of the marketplace. And as evidenced even in a supply challenged quarter, the ability to continue to deliver strong unit economics. So I think what you'll see from us is certainly a discipline in how we execute a focus on the long term and should market environment change, I think the ability to always pivot and pivot nimbly to capture opportunity. Speaker 300:25:30Helpful. Follow-up question, Skybox Drive, congrats on moving that out of beta testing into full market launch. Where are you seeing the most excitement? I know it's early with that onboarding, but is it with the smaller professional sellers, the bigger ones across the board? Is it giving new users on the ERP system as kind of a way to further evidence that? Speaker 300:25:54Or is it with the existing customers, etcetera, etcetera? But where are you seeing the most success early on? Thanks. Speaker 100:25:58Yes. Thanks, Rick. Yes, great question. Speaker 600:26:00Look, I think we're excited and pleasantly surprised at the pace of the adoption and excitement. I think as you heard in the remarks, we're over 100 people already onboarded onto the platform as we brought it out of beta. And maybe piecing that apart, certainly as you think about the range of sellers, I think it's certainly across size, we've seen lots of interest and rapid adoption. If you think about new users versus on to Skybox versus existing, it skews a little bit in this early stage to existing users and naturally so as you can think about the way we design that was meant to be turnkey integration for existing Skybox users where it is almost no effort to bring folks on board and now they have access to an industry leading product that we believe has wonderful differentiated features and unique data that's powered by the VIVIZEDS marketplace. So, really pleasantly surprised and again very optimistic about the prospects as we've seen, I think rapid, rapid adoption in these early days. Speaker 300:27:06Thanks guys. Good luck. Operator00:27:09Thank you, Ryan. Our next question comes from Dan Kurnos. Go ahead, Dan. Speaker 700:27:18Great. Thanks. I'm going to just give you a few rapid fire. Stan, just any thoughts on the change in administration and what that means for either antitrust or consolidation and M and A in the space? Also maybe Stan, just thoughts on I know this is a very common topic, but we've seen some sports venues trying to sort of price in the secondary delta these days. Speaker 700:27:44So just your thoughts on being able to maintain kind of that gap with primary. And then lastly for Larry, just want to get a sense, I know there's a ton of noise with cancellations and moving pieces here and venue mix, but just free cash conversion dynamics, just when do we get back to that 60% to 70% flow through? And are there any other kind of puts and takes we might want to think about? Thank you. Speaker 200:28:14Dan, thanks for the rapid fire. We'll try to rapidly respond as well. Speaker 600:28:18On the first one, still really early days, so very hard to say. I think what's certain is that there will be change and it looks like there will be change across the spectrum there. And so I think also along with everybody else will continue to watch and ensure that we have line of sight and a pulse on what that means for the industry. On the second one, as you look at, I think, where you're seeing perhaps as you alluded to venues, I think I remain really centered on the fact that the secondary ecosystem benefits greatly all who participate from a distribution standpoint that includes the venue, that includes the rights holders and certainly on the consumer side, the incremental distribution that we provide remains really strong. And so I think as we look into the future, we remain really confident that working together across the ecosystem, this industry and this platform will continue to see lots of growth as consumers frankly look for more choice, look for more option, more distribution and continue to prioritize live events moving forward. Speaker 700:29:28And Larry, the free cash question? Yes, thanks. Speaker 300:29:31The cash flow conversion, nothing's changed with our fundamental model and belief in our 60% plus conversion in a normalized growth environment. We've talked about the bridge from EBITDA to cash flow. We've got some CapEx that's a negative that's typically offset by benefit from our working capital float. And then you have interest and taxes and that's sort of the bridge from EBITDA to actual cash on the balance sheet. What we've seen in 2024 certainly have come in as evidenced by our reduction to guidance with less top line growth. Speaker 300:30:20And so that working capital line, which was a meaningful tailwind in 2023, has turned into a meaningful headwind in 2024. And so when we look across a combined view of 2023 and 2024, 2023, we had something approaching 85%, 90% cash conversion, which is obviously higher than our target by quite a bit, that attributable to the working capital benefit. This year, we're trending quite a bit below our target, closer to not generating cash this year. But when you smooth them across, it gets you to do it in the vicinity of a 50% cash conversion. And then if you sort of normalize the growth rate against that, you'd be right back to that 60 ish percent range. Speaker 300:31:05So as we look forward to 2025, expecting a return to growth, assuming things remain steady, I think that 60% to 70% conversion is the right paradigm we assume. Great. Speaker 700:31:20Thanks so much guys. Appreciate it. Operator00:31:24Thank you. Please standby for our next call our next question, excuse me. Our next question comes from Cameron with Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Cameron. Speaker 800:31:35Thanks. Good morning. 2, if I can. First, as we think about the industry headwinds and then the potential reversal heading into next year, I was wondering if you could give provide some color on which across the channels where that pressure is coming from? So whether it's broad based, whether it's primarily consumer to consumer sale headwind, whether to what extent it's a professional seller kind of headwind in reversal or just a little bit of channel unpacking across that dynamic if it's relevant. Speaker 800:32:14And then an industry kind of broader industry question, there were some headlines around the recent Oasis tour on cancellations happening on ticket inventory that was being resold. I think that was just regarding the UK on sale, so maybe not any real direct impact to you guys. But I'd be curious if you have any thoughts on whether that's a practice that you think could become more common or whether you see that as just kind of a one off situation? Thanks. Speaker 300:32:46Thanks, Cameron. Yes, I'll take the first part. As we think about where there's been headwinds, I would not call out a delineation between the type of seller. I would say concerts, if you look at the category level delineation, concerts quite soft, particularly challenging year over year comp in Q3, but sequentially soft as well. I would contrast that sports has had a quite strong year, frankly, above their typical or that category's typical growth rate. Speaker 300:33:27And that has some ebbs and flows throughout the year, but it's been it started out strong, it's going to end strong, a really nice outperformer. And then theater, I put in the consistent with long term trajectory. So it's really been a sports and theater, our strength. That's what ballast our belief that this is not a demand issue. Concerts have been soft and we think it really has been a relative supply weakening. Speaker 300:33:54The other slice on where has it been tougher sledding year over year and what's been a headwind would be by marketing channel. And I think we've alluded to it, but certainly the performance marketing sleeve where select competitors that have been discussed earlier on the call have taken a meaningfully more aggressive posture. And that's put pressure on the incremental order, the incremental dollar of GOV, which by our math is coming through in an uneconomic way. Speaker 600:34:28Yes. Then I think your other question, Cameron, I think yes, we read it, I think very similar to you that I think that pertain more to the UK. And I think as we look at the space, I think we've always looked at ensuring that, A, we provide consumers a wonderful platform for selecting tickets and we've got a great buyer guarantee. We've got we've just recently been recognized as best consumer service by Newsweek again in ticketing. And I think we continue to see I think lots of strength in distribution. Speaker 600:35:01And so I think we'll continue to provide a platform with security and confidence for consumers and continue investing in that moving forward. Speaker 800:35:11All helpful. Thanks guys. Speaker 200:35:14Thanks Cameron. Operator00:35:18Our next question will come from Thomas Forte with the Maxim Group. Go ahead, Thomas. Speaker 900:35:23Great, thanks. So one question and one follow-up. Can you give your current thoughts on some of the fast growing emerging sports trends, women's professional sports, soccer, both MLS and international events expected to be held in the U. S? Speaker 600:35:42Yes. Hey, Tom. Yes, really, what are Speaker 900:35:45I Speaker 600:35:45mean, great year for that as we continue to see. I think, certainly earlier in the year and moving forward, I think what started with record setting, women's NCAA performance then continuing to move as some of those stars progressed into the WNBA. So I think, we've continued to see strength and growth there and we remain really excited I think about, those being contributors to the overall sports categories in ways that they haven't before. Speaker 900:36:20Great. And then for my follow-up question, Ken, again, current thoughts, this time on capital allocation, either buying back shares, investing in the business, strategic M and A? Speaker 300:36:34Yes. I think same priorities remain. We will always look for strategically and financially accretive targets. It's not lost on us that the latter part is more difficult to achieve when our multiple is lower than it's been historically. So that will be a factor as we evaluate what can chin the bar. Speaker 300:37:00I think it also on a relative basis as you explore buying yourself back versus buying other assets, certainly where you're trading on a multiple basis is a factor. On the latter, as we return to cash generation and growth, I think we continue to believe that buying ourselves back when we're attractively priced is compelling. And as we've touched on in the past, there's some incremental considerations around how best to execute that, but it does remain something of keen interest for us to resolve. Speaker 900:37:38Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator00:37:44Thank you, Thomas. Our next question comes from Ralph with William Blair. Go ahead, Ralph. Speaker 1000:37:51Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. 2, if I could. Just on international, I think you talked about launching by the end of the year. Stan, maybe kind of just remind us of that opportunity and maybe give us a sense of the competitive nature in some of those markets versus what you might be temporarily seeing here? Speaker 1000:38:09And then maybe as a follow-up, just in terms of incremental growth, I think you talked about 1% of GMV coming from cross sell@vegas.com. It seems like a good initial start here. But maybe if you could sort of frame that opportunity, do you have the pieces in place to further scale that GMV contribution or just maybe give a sense how you're thinking about that opportunity? Thank you. Speaker 600:38:28Yes. Hey, Ralph, sure thing. I think on the first one, I think we're well on track and underway, I think, in internationalizing the infrastructure components of the platform, right. I think we've continued to make good progress and are certainly on track to launch before the end of the year. I think we continue to see the international landscape as a big opportunity where we feel like our product and offering competes very nicely in what certainly from our research and optics look to be a less competitive dynamic than here in domestically. Speaker 600:39:02And so I think we are excited about the ability to go compete and compete meaningfully with a product that I think again is differentiated and will do quite well in that landscape. On the Vegas front, I think we are still, I would say, early days, but already excited about the fact that we've run rate at that 1%, I'd say, as we've primarily looked at driving the 2 synergies that we had when we acquired the business. 1, driving the accretive inventory across that as a distribution channel, which has proven to be a really, really nice add to a platform that benefits from incremental selection. On the other side, we've also seen as you've seen some of the highest open rate and performance metrics from our CRM campaigns as those Vegas customers go back into their home markets and we introduce them to Vivid Seats. All the more so meaningful when you think about an aggressive dynamic where I think the landscape has it that people are out there competing and paying very large acquisition costs for users, we have a free acquisition channel that we are excited about and we will continue to tap and invest in where we can bring those users home in a very profitable manner. Speaker 1000:40:30Great. Thanks, Dan. Operator00:40:36Thank you, everyone, for your participation in today's conference call. This concludes today's Vivid Seats call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallVivid Seats Q3 202400:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) Vivid Seats Earnings HeadlinesPhish Play Final Dates of 2025 Tour (For Now): Here's Where to Find Tickets OnlineApril 26 at 7:35 AM | msn.comHow much are All Things Go New York tickets to see Doechii and Clairo?April 26 at 1:18 AM | msn.comHere’s How to Claim Your Stake in Elon’s Private Company, xAII predict this single breakthrough could make Elon the world’s first trillionaire — and mint more new millionaires than any tech advance in history. And for a limited time, you have the chance to claim a stake in this project, even though it’s housed inside Elon’s private company, xAI.April 26, 2025 | Brownstone Research (Ad)How much are tickets to see Keanu Reeves in ‘Waiting for Godot’ on Broadway?April 26 at 1:18 AM | msn.comLil Wayne tour 2025: How to secure tickets to see him at MSG this summerApril 26 at 1:18 AM | nj.comSanta Fe Klan announces ‘Unidos Tour’ with Shoreline Mafia. Get ticketsApril 24 at 9:36 PM | msn.comSee More Vivid Seats Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Vivid Seats? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Vivid Seats and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Vivid SeatsVivid Seats (NASDAQ:SEAT) operates an online ticket marketplace in the United States, Canada, and Japan. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for sports, concerts, theater events, and other live events. This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces; and Vivid Picks daily fantasy sports that allows users to partake in contests by making picks from various sport and player matchups. The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.View Vivid Seats ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles Market Anticipation Builds: Joby Stock Climbs Ahead of EarningsIs Intuitive Surgical a Buy After Volatile Reaction to Earnings?Seismic Shift at Intel: Massive Layoffs Precede Crucial EarningsRocket Lab Lands New Contract, Builds Momentum Ahead of EarningsAmazon's Earnings Could Fuel a Rapid Breakout Tesla Earnings Miss, But Musk Refocuses and Bulls ReactQualcomm’s Range Narrows Ahead of Earnings as Bulls Step In Upcoming Earnings Cadence Design Systems (4/28/2025)Welltower (4/28/2025)Waste Management (4/28/2025)AstraZeneca (4/29/2025)Mondelez International (4/29/2025)PayPal (4/29/2025)Starbucks (4/29/2025)DoorDash (4/29/2025)Honeywell International (4/29/2025)Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (4/29/2025) Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access for Free Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools. Start Your 30-Day Trial MarketBeat All Access Features Best-in-Class Portfolio Monitoring Get personalized stock ideas. Compare portfolio to indices. Check stock news, ratings, SEC filings, and more. Stock Ideas and Recommendations See daily stock ideas from top analysts. Receive short-term trading ideas from MarketBeat. Identify trending stocks on social media. Advanced Stock Screeners and Research Tools Use our seven stock screeners to find suitable stocks. Stay informed with MarketBeat's real-time news. Export data to Excel for personal analysis. Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. Sign In Create Account Your Email Address: Email Address Required Your Password: Password Required Log In or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google Forgot your password? Your Email Address: Please enter your email address. Please enter a valid email address Choose a Password: Please enter your password. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Create My Account (Free) or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google By creating a free account, you agree to our terms of service. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
There are 11 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good morning, and welcome to the Vivid Seats 3rd Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Following management's prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q and A. I would now like to turn the call over to Kate Efraim. Speaker 100:00:17Good morning, and welcome to Vivintheap's Q3 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Kate Africk, Head of Investor Relations at Vivintheap. Joining me today to discuss Vivintheap's results are Stan Chia, Chief Executive Officer and Larry Fay, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to our Q3 earnings press release, which we released earlier this morning. The press release as well as supplemental earnings slides are available on the Investor Relations page of Vivitsit's website at investors. Speaker 100:00:53Vivitsit.com. During the course of today's call, management may make forward looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks and uncertainties described in our earnings press release, our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks and our other filings with the SEC. On today's call, we will refer to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins, which are non GAAP financial measures that provide useful information for our investors. To the extent reasonably available, a reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to their corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release and our supplemental earnings slides. Speaker 100:01:46And now, I would like to turn the call over to Stan. Speaker 200:01:50Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our strategy has always been to prioritize long term success by fostering stickiness in our marketplace for both buyers and sellers, and I am excited to share the progress we delivered on that front in the Q3. Staying true to that strategy, we operated with discipline and delivered solid Q3 financial results despite market headwinds that we believe will be temporary. Before discussing the market backdrop and the strategic progress that we delivered, I'd like to touch on our financial highlights, which Larry will cover in more detail. In the Q3, we delivered $187,000,000 of revenues $34,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA, including an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin. Speaker 200:02:40These results demonstrate our ability to deliver strong unit economics even when market factors are less favorable in the short term. To begin with, I'd like to shed some light on those market factors. Compared to record concert years in 20222023, we would consider 2024 as a digestion year for concert industry supply, with year over year declines seen most acutely in the Q3. As we and others in the industry have discussed, there was a notable reduction in stadium tour activity in 2024 compared to 2023 when many of the most popular artists played in the largest venues, which naturally command the highest prices. Partially counteracting this dynamic, concert ticket volumes have held up quite nicely in 2024 with many artists playing more shows, albeit in smaller venues that typically come with lower prices. Speaker 200:03:41We believe that the mix shift in 2024 away from concerts and away from stadium tour activity was a short term headwind that will soon abate. Looking ahead, we are now in the midst of concert on sale announcements for the 2025 calendar, which we expect should be a more normal year with concerts, including stadium shows growing again. Concert supply in 2024 was an anomaly, and we look forward to normalizing supply intersecting with long term tailwinds for live events next year and sustained and reliable concert growth going forward. We remain confident that the digestion that we are seeing in 2024 is a reflection of supply and not a reflection of demand. The ongoing strength that we are seeing in the industry in sports and theater is evidence of this dynamic. Speaker 200:04:33Overall, we believe that the demand for live events remains as robust as ever. Beyond the supply and demand backdrop, marketing intensity was high in the 3rd quarter, with certain competitors focused on growing volume where we believe marginal volume is uneconomic at least in the near term. We continue to focus on strong unit economics and fostering long term stickiness in our marketplace. Accordingly, we are building on the long standing strength of our business and are poised to capitalize upon any alleviation of competitive behavior or upon a normalizing market backdrop leveraging our investments that are focused on winning in the long term. Even as we continue to lean into long term initiatives that are driving our mix of repeat orders higher, new customer acquisition via performance marketing remains an important channel. Speaker 200:05:31Accordingly, we are excited that Adam Stewart has now officially joined our Board of Directors. As we briefly touched on last quarter, Adam joins us with almost 2 decades of experience at Google, including his current position overseeing advertising partnerships and integrated solutions, including Google.com. Adam's extensive knowledge will be very valuable as we seek to drive further efficiencies in this channel. Now I'd like to turn to the strategic progress that we delivered in the Q3. Efficiently increasing brand awareness continues to be a long term priority, helping to drive customer acquisition and ultimately the household penetration of our brand with key audiences. Speaker 200:06:18In the Q3, we announced a new strategic partnership with Brandon Marshall's athlete led media platform I'm Athlete. The former NFL All Pro receiver has built an impressive platform portfolio with a wide reaching and engaged audience base that is passionate about entertainment, sports and live events. In addition to exclusive content creation featuring athletes and celebrities, Vivid Seat's key brand differentiators are being promoted to millions of sports fans across those channels through native, organic mentions during episodes and sponsored content. This unique partnership is a new way for us to engage with fans, growing our brand awareness in new channels and also meet the growing consumer demand for best in class and compelling content. Our partnership with IAA already appears to have accelerated our impact in social channels. Speaker 200:07:16In conjunction with these efforts, we are also leveraging new and expanded strategies that drive engagement and grow affinity for our brand, including expanding our social presence, which is approaching 400,000 followers. We also continue to differentiate our platform and drive marketing efficiencies through game center, which is similarly approaching 400,000 lifetime users playing games in our app. As we've shared in the past, our engagement efforts are proving successful with game center users frequently browsing tickets while playing, which is translating to app orders. We are excited to share that 95% of ticket orders from game center users now occur within our app, incurring nearly 0 marketing expense. Orders from repeat customers, whether driven through game center engagement or through other initiatives such as our industry leading Vivid Seats Rewards program are highly accretive and we look forward to incremental efficiencies as our investments in these initiatives have more room to run. Speaker 200:08:22Next, I'd like to take a moment to highlight the progress and efficiencies that we are continuing to drive through synergies with our Vegas.com acquisition. Early on, we began cross listing complementary Vivid Seats inventory on Vegas dotcom. We are excited to share that orders from cross listed inventory are run rating at approximately 1% of our marketplace GOV. Additionally, as we discussed last quarter, our cross sell campaign to convert vegas.com customers to Vivid Seat's customers in their home markets is off to a promising start with nearly 50% of cross sell emails being opened by customers. This campaign is now bearing fruit and converting to incremental orders and new Vivid Seats customers. Speaker 200:09:08As more Vegas.com cohorts age to their next live event purchase back home, we believe this channel will ultimately be another contributor to profitable GOV growth. As we think about our TAM, we continue to make great progress with our investments in strategically building out our global platform. As we've discussed previously, we are internationalizing our platform and capabilities to scale efficiently as we expand our TAM across geographies. We remain focused and on track to launch operations in select geographies by the end of the year. On the seller side of our marketplace, we are excited to announce that our innovative pricing tool, Skybox Drive, recently exited its beta phase and was met with rapid demand. Speaker 200:09:58As a result, we are already in the processes of onboarding over 100 users and also have a sizable wait list of prospective users. We are pleased with the reception of our product, which is turnkey integrated and exclusive to our Skybox ERP and leverages the power of Vivid Seats marketplace data. We look forward to driving incremental adoption with the hundreds of additional Skybox sellers on our waitlist. It's important to remember that Skybox remains the industry leading ERP with over 55% of our professional sellers exclusively using our ERP to run their businesses. The added functionality of Skybox Drive is a significant step that will further enforce the stickiness of Skybox and fortify our already leading position with professional sellers. Speaker 200:10:52Lastly, I wanted to share that we recently announced Vivid Seats was included in Newsweek's list of America's Best Customer Service 2025 in the ticketing category for the 5th time. As a company that is focused on rewarding fans and creating the most exceptional experiences in our industry, we are proud to be recognized again by Newsweek for our excellence in customer service. In summary, we made substantial strategic progress during the quarter, particularly through unlocking synergies with Vegas.com and with the full launch of Skybox Drive. We are confident that the differentiated products and initiatives fostering stickiness to our platform will drive long term growth and value in our marketplace, both in North America and abroad with our imminent international launch. In the meantime, we will continue to operate with the discipline and flexibility that we demonstrated in the Q3. Speaker 200:11:49With the anticipated return of concert growth in 2025, we expect to return to organic growth and to continue delivering a double digit growth CAGR over the long term. With that, I will turn it over to Larry for a more detailed review of the quarter. Speaker 300:12:05Thanks, Stan. In the Q3 of 2024, we generated $872,000,000 of marketplace GOV, a 13% year over year decline. The drop in marketplace GOV was driven by an 11% year over year reduction in average order size and a 2% year over year decline in total marketplace orders. Our lower average order size is a result of pressure on concert AOS, resulting in part from a softer stadium lineup, along with our acquisitions bringing lower average order sizes. Despite the soft AOS seen in the Q3, since 2019, our average order size has grown organically at a 2% CAGR and we continue to expect a 3% to 4% AOS CAGR moving forward. Speaker 300:12:52I would also note there were several large concert tour cancellations in the Q3, which were headwinds to marketplace GOV and total marketplace orders. We delivered $187,000,000 of revenues in the 3rd quarter, roughly flat year over year despite the decline in marketplace GOV. We delivered strong unit economics led by a 17.5% take rate, which was up 200 basis points year over year. We delivered $34,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the 3rd quarter, which was slightly higher year over year. We are pleased with our 18% adjusted EBITDA margin despite lower marketplace GOV than anticipated. Speaker 300:13:35Lastly, on guidance, we now expect 2024 marketplace GOV to be in the range of $3,800,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 2024 revenues in the range of $760,000,000 to 780,000,000 dollars and 2024 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $145,000,000 to $155,000,000 These revised ranges incorporate challenging concert supply dynamics as well as continued marketing intensity expected in the 4th quarter, along with a range of outcomes for remaining 2025 Concert On sales. We will continue to operate with discipline and anticipate the return of concert industry growth in 2025. Back to you, Stan. Speaker 200:14:18Thanks, Larry. Wrapping up, we delivered key strategic progress in the Q3 and continue to position our platform for long term growth and profitability. Strong consumer demand for live events continues and we expect an acceleration in industry growth in 2025 as favorable tailwinds for live events intersect with normalizing supply. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions. Operator00:14:44Thank you. We will now begin our question and answer session. Andrew Marotta with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question. Speaker 400:15:14Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could dig into the implied take rate guidance in 4Q a little bit. We saw 2Q, 3Q come up above recent trends and it looks like 4Q is maybe coming back down a little bit. So just wondering if you could get into some of the drivers behind that and maybe how your loyalty program is playing into that? Speaker 300:15:37Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Yes, I think as you noted strong performance on take rate in Q2 and Q3. I think that's a combination of a couple of factors, some of which we think will continue, some of which I think we want flexibility, right? So we're always looking to balance take rate and volume. Speaker 300:16:02And as you can imagine, if you try to push take rates, that puts pressure on volume and the inverse is also true. And depending on how market environments evolve, we want to make sure that we're retaining the ability to flex accordingly. The second piece I'd say, this will vary based on mix. But generally speaking, World Series is a quite high ticket or high AOS event. And when World Series increases as a percentage of the book of business, that will have a deflating effect on take rates. Speaker 300:16:43And I don't think it would be unreasonable to call the World Series matchup this year the dream scenario. And so while I think that's a very nice answer on a nominal basis when you look at percentage take rates, that will create a little bit of a downward pressure. Speaker 400:16:59Got it. Thank you. Yes, dream scenario, I think Yankee fans may argue with that, but maybe a higher level question as it relates to kind of the overall ecosystem and I'll jump back in the queue. But when you're talking about 2024 being a digestion year, I know normal has kind of been hard to come by since the pandemic. But in kind of a normalized environment, do you see this largely as a cycle like a couple of big years, the digestion year, or is it something that's kind of just idiosyncratic based on when big artists decide to tour? Speaker 300:17:35Yes, it's a great question. The phrase that we use most often on our side is event mix. And I think you can have multiple drivers of variance or multiple sign curves happening across the various leads and categories that can blend together into a more difficult to predict trend. So if you were to focus exclusively on concerts, which I think is the story of this quarter, when Q3, which is a bit more concert heavy, you saw particularly challenging comps where the lineup last year at the top of the ticket was quite strong and diversified across a number of artists. But the tippy top was particularly strong. Speaker 300:18:27You move into this year, just a different story, right, a more distributed number of artists playing at smaller venues. And so you had fairly meaningful headwinds there. Flip the script a little bit to sports. This year in Q1, we touched on a little bit, you had a really nice college football playoff matchup, lapping a not so good college football playoff matchup heading into 2025, you'll have expanded playoffs. So you're probably set up for another nice event mix there. Speaker 300:18:59Great World Series matchup this year, pretty poor World Series matchup from a ticketing standpoint last year. So those are competing. And then you go to theater, you had a record setting Matt Rife on sale and tour happening last year, not the same thing happening this year. And so you sort of have to map all those together. And across the categories, you can have tailwinds, headwinds and it adds to some of the challenge in precisely predicting where it will go. Speaker 300:19:28But I do think it is fair to assume some level of oscillation based on event mix, much of which is exogenous and not really indicative of fundamental trends. Speaker 400:19:39Understood. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it. Operator00:19:43Thank you, Andrew. Our next question will come from Maria Ripps. Go ahead, Maria. Speaker 500:19:52Great. Good morning and thanks so much for taking my questions. First, can you maybe talk about your expectations for the broader industry growth next year sort of given the potentially sort of more robust concert supply calendar comping a week here? I guess, how should we think about growth relative to a more normalized high single digit sort of growth rate? Speaker 200:20:13Hey, Maria, thanks for the question. Speaker 600:20:15Yes, look, I think as we've discussed on the prepared remarks and I think today, and I think what we've seen this year and maybe adding a little bit more color back to beyond the distribution of the artists on the concert side. I think you had a sort of a retrenchment or digestion of the venues as well where we certainly saw much larger concentration of arenas versus stadiums certainly reflected by others in the industry as well. And as we look forward to next year, we remain really bullish about the secular trends that we've seen in the category. We've certainly heard, I think, others in the industry remark about how there will be a return to stadium tours in strength next year. And I think we remain excited about that prospect. Speaker 600:21:09Certainly as we've been looking at it, we use the data that we have available tangibly and we remain I think optimistic and looking forward as the slate for next year continues to unveil itself. Speaker 500:21:22Got it. And then I just wanted to get a little bit more color sort of on your Q4 or full year guidance or implied Q4 guidance. So I think your prior guidance sort of suggested that this strong 2025 concert lineup should sort of support sales in Q4. Can you maybe just talk about what has changed here more recently? Is it just the timing of some of those events kind of with them shifting sort of later into the year? Speaker 500:21:49Or is there anything else sort of to keep in mind here, sort of understanding that sort of near term dynamics here a little bit weak? Speaker 300:21:59Yes. Thanks, Maria. I think there's 2 things happening. The first, I think we've commented on and you can see in the numbers softness in the concert play in Q3. And until the next wave of on sales happens in mass, I think you can presume that that softness would continue. Speaker 300:22:25So as you start moving into Q4, call it the softer than expected performance we saw in August and September in the concert space continues into October. It's not an unreasonable extrapolation. And then, yes, we have talked about hopes and expectations for a robust calendar. We've seen a few, right, Coldplay, Oasis, Rufus De Sole, not enough as of today to declare victory on it being a robust calendar. So there's still a fair bit of speculation. Speaker 300:23:05And so what we tried to strike was a balance where it's closer to reflecting what we know, while acknowledging that there's been positive comments. Those positive comments just haven't manifested in tangible reliable announcements in mass yet. Speaker 500:23:27Got it. Thank you so much. Operator00:23:30Thank you, Maria. Stand by for our next question. And our next question comes from Ryan Sigal. Go ahead, Ryan. Speaker 300:23:41Good morning, guys. Stan, you mentioned high marketing intensity. That's been a common theme now for several quarters. I guess it's consistent with our checks as well and Moody's actually cut their free cash flow estimate by nearly $200,000,000 and cut in half on one of your skilled competitors, which is evident of that. But given this ongoing headwind, does it make you rethink Vivid's near term and then maybe even longer term strategy on customer acquisition? Speaker 200:24:11Yes. Hey, Ryan, thanks for Speaker 600:24:12the question. Yes, I mean, look, I think spot on with what you've seen in your research, certainly when others go out and I think take aggressiveness to the point of certain uneconomic volume. I think we're always faced with decisions that we have to make both in the near term and the long term. And what I would say is, as you've seen evidence by I think our investments and certainly our results, we've always prioritized long term value, right? I think the investments that we make continue to differentiate our product ecosystems, continue to allow us almost if you think about mix to be fairly prescriptive and direct about the volume that we do target, right? Speaker 600:24:58I think we have the industry's leading loyalty program. You can certainly see us fortifying the products that we have across both sides of the marketplace. And as evidenced even in a supply challenged quarter, the ability to continue to deliver strong unit economics. So I think what you'll see from us is certainly a discipline in how we execute a focus on the long term and should market environment change, I think the ability to always pivot and pivot nimbly to capture opportunity. Speaker 300:25:30Helpful. Follow-up question, Skybox Drive, congrats on moving that out of beta testing into full market launch. Where are you seeing the most excitement? I know it's early with that onboarding, but is it with the smaller professional sellers, the bigger ones across the board? Is it giving new users on the ERP system as kind of a way to further evidence that? Speaker 300:25:54Or is it with the existing customers, etcetera, etcetera? But where are you seeing the most success early on? Thanks. Speaker 100:25:58Yes. Thanks, Rick. Yes, great question. Speaker 600:26:00Look, I think we're excited and pleasantly surprised at the pace of the adoption and excitement. I think as you heard in the remarks, we're over 100 people already onboarded onto the platform as we brought it out of beta. And maybe piecing that apart, certainly as you think about the range of sellers, I think it's certainly across size, we've seen lots of interest and rapid adoption. If you think about new users versus on to Skybox versus existing, it skews a little bit in this early stage to existing users and naturally so as you can think about the way we design that was meant to be turnkey integration for existing Skybox users where it is almost no effort to bring folks on board and now they have access to an industry leading product that we believe has wonderful differentiated features and unique data that's powered by the VIVIZEDS marketplace. So, really pleasantly surprised and again very optimistic about the prospects as we've seen, I think rapid, rapid adoption in these early days. Speaker 300:27:06Thanks guys. Good luck. Operator00:27:09Thank you, Ryan. Our next question comes from Dan Kurnos. Go ahead, Dan. Speaker 700:27:18Great. Thanks. I'm going to just give you a few rapid fire. Stan, just any thoughts on the change in administration and what that means for either antitrust or consolidation and M and A in the space? Also maybe Stan, just thoughts on I know this is a very common topic, but we've seen some sports venues trying to sort of price in the secondary delta these days. Speaker 700:27:44So just your thoughts on being able to maintain kind of that gap with primary. And then lastly for Larry, just want to get a sense, I know there's a ton of noise with cancellations and moving pieces here and venue mix, but just free cash conversion dynamics, just when do we get back to that 60% to 70% flow through? And are there any other kind of puts and takes we might want to think about? Thank you. Speaker 200:28:14Dan, thanks for the rapid fire. We'll try to rapidly respond as well. Speaker 600:28:18On the first one, still really early days, so very hard to say. I think what's certain is that there will be change and it looks like there will be change across the spectrum there. And so I think also along with everybody else will continue to watch and ensure that we have line of sight and a pulse on what that means for the industry. On the second one, as you look at, I think, where you're seeing perhaps as you alluded to venues, I think I remain really centered on the fact that the secondary ecosystem benefits greatly all who participate from a distribution standpoint that includes the venue, that includes the rights holders and certainly on the consumer side, the incremental distribution that we provide remains really strong. And so I think as we look into the future, we remain really confident that working together across the ecosystem, this industry and this platform will continue to see lots of growth as consumers frankly look for more choice, look for more option, more distribution and continue to prioritize live events moving forward. Speaker 700:29:28And Larry, the free cash question? Yes, thanks. Speaker 300:29:31The cash flow conversion, nothing's changed with our fundamental model and belief in our 60% plus conversion in a normalized growth environment. We've talked about the bridge from EBITDA to cash flow. We've got some CapEx that's a negative that's typically offset by benefit from our working capital float. And then you have interest and taxes and that's sort of the bridge from EBITDA to actual cash on the balance sheet. What we've seen in 2024 certainly have come in as evidenced by our reduction to guidance with less top line growth. Speaker 300:30:20And so that working capital line, which was a meaningful tailwind in 2023, has turned into a meaningful headwind in 2024. And so when we look across a combined view of 2023 and 2024, 2023, we had something approaching 85%, 90% cash conversion, which is obviously higher than our target by quite a bit, that attributable to the working capital benefit. This year, we're trending quite a bit below our target, closer to not generating cash this year. But when you smooth them across, it gets you to do it in the vicinity of a 50% cash conversion. And then if you sort of normalize the growth rate against that, you'd be right back to that 60 ish percent range. Speaker 300:31:05So as we look forward to 2025, expecting a return to growth, assuming things remain steady, I think that 60% to 70% conversion is the right paradigm we assume. Great. Speaker 700:31:20Thanks so much guys. Appreciate it. Operator00:31:24Thank you. Please standby for our next call our next question, excuse me. Our next question comes from Cameron with Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Cameron. Speaker 800:31:35Thanks. Good morning. 2, if I can. First, as we think about the industry headwinds and then the potential reversal heading into next year, I was wondering if you could give provide some color on which across the channels where that pressure is coming from? So whether it's broad based, whether it's primarily consumer to consumer sale headwind, whether to what extent it's a professional seller kind of headwind in reversal or just a little bit of channel unpacking across that dynamic if it's relevant. Speaker 800:32:14And then an industry kind of broader industry question, there were some headlines around the recent Oasis tour on cancellations happening on ticket inventory that was being resold. I think that was just regarding the UK on sale, so maybe not any real direct impact to you guys. But I'd be curious if you have any thoughts on whether that's a practice that you think could become more common or whether you see that as just kind of a one off situation? Thanks. Speaker 300:32:46Thanks, Cameron. Yes, I'll take the first part. As we think about where there's been headwinds, I would not call out a delineation between the type of seller. I would say concerts, if you look at the category level delineation, concerts quite soft, particularly challenging year over year comp in Q3, but sequentially soft as well. I would contrast that sports has had a quite strong year, frankly, above their typical or that category's typical growth rate. Speaker 300:33:27And that has some ebbs and flows throughout the year, but it's been it started out strong, it's going to end strong, a really nice outperformer. And then theater, I put in the consistent with long term trajectory. So it's really been a sports and theater, our strength. That's what ballast our belief that this is not a demand issue. Concerts have been soft and we think it really has been a relative supply weakening. Speaker 300:33:54The other slice on where has it been tougher sledding year over year and what's been a headwind would be by marketing channel. And I think we've alluded to it, but certainly the performance marketing sleeve where select competitors that have been discussed earlier on the call have taken a meaningfully more aggressive posture. And that's put pressure on the incremental order, the incremental dollar of GOV, which by our math is coming through in an uneconomic way. Speaker 600:34:28Yes. Then I think your other question, Cameron, I think yes, we read it, I think very similar to you that I think that pertain more to the UK. And I think as we look at the space, I think we've always looked at ensuring that, A, we provide consumers a wonderful platform for selecting tickets and we've got a great buyer guarantee. We've got we've just recently been recognized as best consumer service by Newsweek again in ticketing. And I think we continue to see I think lots of strength in distribution. Speaker 600:35:01And so I think we'll continue to provide a platform with security and confidence for consumers and continue investing in that moving forward. Speaker 800:35:11All helpful. Thanks guys. Speaker 200:35:14Thanks Cameron. Operator00:35:18Our next question will come from Thomas Forte with the Maxim Group. Go ahead, Thomas. Speaker 900:35:23Great, thanks. So one question and one follow-up. Can you give your current thoughts on some of the fast growing emerging sports trends, women's professional sports, soccer, both MLS and international events expected to be held in the U. S? Speaker 600:35:42Yes. Hey, Tom. Yes, really, what are Speaker 900:35:45I Speaker 600:35:45mean, great year for that as we continue to see. I think, certainly earlier in the year and moving forward, I think what started with record setting, women's NCAA performance then continuing to move as some of those stars progressed into the WNBA. So I think, we've continued to see strength and growth there and we remain really excited I think about, those being contributors to the overall sports categories in ways that they haven't before. Speaker 900:36:20Great. And then for my follow-up question, Ken, again, current thoughts, this time on capital allocation, either buying back shares, investing in the business, strategic M and A? Speaker 300:36:34Yes. I think same priorities remain. We will always look for strategically and financially accretive targets. It's not lost on us that the latter part is more difficult to achieve when our multiple is lower than it's been historically. So that will be a factor as we evaluate what can chin the bar. Speaker 300:37:00I think it also on a relative basis as you explore buying yourself back versus buying other assets, certainly where you're trading on a multiple basis is a factor. On the latter, as we return to cash generation and growth, I think we continue to believe that buying ourselves back when we're attractively priced is compelling. And as we've touched on in the past, there's some incremental considerations around how best to execute that, but it does remain something of keen interest for us to resolve. Speaker 900:37:38Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator00:37:44Thank you, Thomas. Our next question comes from Ralph with William Blair. Go ahead, Ralph. Speaker 1000:37:51Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. 2, if I could. Just on international, I think you talked about launching by the end of the year. Stan, maybe kind of just remind us of that opportunity and maybe give us a sense of the competitive nature in some of those markets versus what you might be temporarily seeing here? Speaker 1000:38:09And then maybe as a follow-up, just in terms of incremental growth, I think you talked about 1% of GMV coming from cross sell@vegas.com. It seems like a good initial start here. But maybe if you could sort of frame that opportunity, do you have the pieces in place to further scale that GMV contribution or just maybe give a sense how you're thinking about that opportunity? Thank you. Speaker 600:38:28Yes. Hey, Ralph, sure thing. I think on the first one, I think we're well on track and underway, I think, in internationalizing the infrastructure components of the platform, right. I think we've continued to make good progress and are certainly on track to launch before the end of the year. I think we continue to see the international landscape as a big opportunity where we feel like our product and offering competes very nicely in what certainly from our research and optics look to be a less competitive dynamic than here in domestically. Speaker 600:39:02And so I think we are excited about the ability to go compete and compete meaningfully with a product that I think again is differentiated and will do quite well in that landscape. On the Vegas front, I think we are still, I would say, early days, but already excited about the fact that we've run rate at that 1%, I'd say, as we've primarily looked at driving the 2 synergies that we had when we acquired the business. 1, driving the accretive inventory across that as a distribution channel, which has proven to be a really, really nice add to a platform that benefits from incremental selection. On the other side, we've also seen as you've seen some of the highest open rate and performance metrics from our CRM campaigns as those Vegas customers go back into their home markets and we introduce them to Vivid Seats. All the more so meaningful when you think about an aggressive dynamic where I think the landscape has it that people are out there competing and paying very large acquisition costs for users, we have a free acquisition channel that we are excited about and we will continue to tap and invest in where we can bring those users home in a very profitable manner. Speaker 1000:40:30Great. Thanks, Dan. Operator00:40:36Thank you, everyone, for your participation in today's conference call. This concludes today's Vivid Seats call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.Read morePowered by