Chemring Group H2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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December 17, 2024

There are 2 speakers on the call.

Operator

Okay. Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of Kemmering's results for the year ending 31st October 2024. I'm joined this morning by James Mortensen, our CFO and also Tony Wood, our new Chairman. Welcome, Tony. For this morning's presentation, I'll cover some group highlights for the year and some comments on the company's strong long term prospects.

Operator

I'll then hand over to James, who'll take us through the financial and operational performance in more detail. And then I'll comment on the general market environment and the progress we have made in delivering an organic growth strategy. In 2024, the group marked its 50th anniversary as a listed company on the London Stock Exchange with another year of positive performance. The emphasis we continue to place on building a resilient business has enabled us to overcome the occasional operational headwind and positions us well to take advantage of the significant organic growth opportunities we have available to us. During the year, we increased our organic growth investment program, and this has been matched by the strong order intake we expected.

Operator

Across the year, we have delivered good progress and growing momentum against our stated goal of balancing near term performance with longer term growth and value creation. Clearly, none of this would be possible without the commitment and dedication of our people, and I want to take this opportunity to acknowledge and thank all of my colleagues across the whole of the group for their unrelenting professionalism and hard work. Turning now to the headline numbers and the heightened activity in both sectors. Our 3 energetics businesses had an outstanding year with all 3 delivering record order books and 2 of them 2 of the 3 delivering record revenues and operating profits. Roque maintained its track record of delivering growing revenues and operating profit.

Operator

And at our UK countermeasures business, finished the year with a full slate of record order intake, order book, record revenue and record operating profit, which is quite an achievement for the team in Salisbury. Overall, group revenues grew 8% to £510,000,000 Earning per share was 19.3p and cash conversion grew from 90% to 102%, continuing to demonstrate the cash generative nature of our group. I think the standout result is a £673,000,000 of order intake our businesses have won during the year, which results in the group reporting a record order book of £1,040,000,000 which is up 13% since the end of last year, further evidence, if any of you need it, of the strength of our end markets. We've also continued to make good progress delivering our safety and ESG plans and their associated key metrics continue to improve. I'll now hand over to James, who'll take you through the financial, operational and innovation review.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Mick. We're pleased to report results in line with expectations, and that record order book gives us great momentum as we build for the future. And that record order book is now €1,000,000,000 up 13%. And if the recently announced orders were included, it would have stood at €1,300,000,000 up 43%. Good momentum continued in revenue, up 8%.

Speaker 1

Operating profit was up 3% despite being held back by U. S. Countermeasures. EPS down 4%, impacted by higher tax and finance costs. Strong cash conversion at 102%.

Speaker 1

And so the Board has declared a final dividend of 5.2p, giving a total dividend of 7.8p, up 13%. So turning next to our segmental performance. Countermeasures and Energetics revenue grew 4%. Growth in Energetics was offset by a weaker period for Countermeasures, so operating profit was down 8% and margin decreased to 15.6%. Strong momentum continued in Sensitive Information with revenue up 13% and operating profit up 21%.

Speaker 1

Operating profit margin was up slightly on last year at 19.5% despite the continued investment to position Ripe well for future growth. Group revenue was up 8% despite an FX headwind of £7,000,000 Group operating profit was up 3%, but operating margin was down 70 basis points to 13.9%. So let's look in a bit more detail at each of the segments. It was another strong year for order intake in Countermeasures and Energetics, demonstrating the critical, highly engineered nature of the products in this segment. As our customers' programs are ramping, we are seeing that demand often in the form of multiyear orders.

Speaker 1

This was demonstrated by our recent 106 $1,000,000 5 year order supplying missile components. Revenue grew 4% to $298,000,000 with strong operational performance across our energetics and U. K. Countermeasures businesses. Given the strong order coverage, this was a year focused on safely delivering against our operational plans.

Speaker 1

Each of our sites worked tirelessly to meet our customers' expectations. We had record years at the number of our sites. We spoke about the operational challenges at our Tennessee facility in H1, and whilst progress hasn't been as fast as we hoped, we did make good progress in H2, continuing to ramp production and drive quality and efficiency as we go up that curve. Overall margin was down 210 basis points to 15.6% as a result of those operational challenges in U. S.

Speaker 1

Countermeasures and the legacy contracts we delivered against in H2 on which we made no profit. The U. S. Customers informed us that they have funding to extend that contract into FY 'twenty five and so that brings that lower margin contract into H1 and also pushes out 2 months of production of more profitable contracts into 'twenty six. Order cover remains really strong with 97% coverage this year, 81% coverage next year and 52% coverage in 'twenty seven.

Speaker 1

So moving now to SENS and Information, where Roque posted another year of strong revenue growth. It was up 23%, excluding pass through. We were particularly pleased with the growing contribution made by our product and defense businesses, up 41% 57%, respectively. This was both from delivering electronic warfare products to countries from Lithuania to Japan and also delivering against major programs such as the U. K.

Speaker 1

Army's new Istar modernization program known as Project Zodiac. Our National Security business continued to perform strongly, but we did slow recruitment in some areas in the second half in anticipation of a slowdown in spend given the U. K. Election. We now see that business as well positioned to take advantage when order flow improves.

Speaker 1

Operating margin improved 120 basis points to 19.5%, driven by increased product and services revenue at Roque and a decline in lower margin diluted pass through revenue, excluding which margin would have been up 40 basis points to 22.5%. Order intake was down 30%, driven by a decrease in Roque as customers returned to placing annual orders and the order for JBTDS low rate initial production was in the prior year comparative. Look, we are aware of the challenges some of our competitors are facing, but our strategy to focus on our customers' most complex and challenging problems has meant to date we have been better shielded from budget challenges. At 48%, order cover for FY 'twenty five is a few percentage points lower than we'd like at this time of year, But given the critical areas where we support our customers, we expect order flow to improve as we go through the year. Moving on to net debt.

Speaker 1

With a strong focus on cash generation, operating cash was €96,000,000 and cash conversion 102 percent in the year. We have continued to invest in additional capacity with €49,000,000 spent on the energetics expansion projects and a further €22,000,000 spent on maintenance and automation. This has been offset by £22,000,000 of grant funding. We've also returned £48,000,000 to shareholders through our growing dividend and the share buyback, and we also purchased shares to satisfy acquisition consideration and employee share options. We had closing net debt of $53,000,000 representing 0.56x leverage.

Speaker 1

We forecast net debt to rise to about 1x next year with about $70,000,000 to spend on energetics expansion. So now let me tell you a bit more about the grant funding, which really demonstrates our key position in the supply chain. On 18th March, we announced €90,000,000 of grant funding for Kemmering Nobel to increase production of military explosives. About €60,000,000 was from the EU and the act in support of ammunition production, which focused on increasing capacity and tackling bottlenecks in the supply chain. Of the high explosives work stream, we received 54% of all the amounts granted.

Speaker 1

Most of the other parties focused on TNT, whereas we are expanding production of the specialty military explosives, HMX, RDX and NTO. The government of Norway has matched half of that funding, providing another €30,000,000 with a grant made on similar terms to the EU, but with a different timing of cash flows. And I should flag, there are no commercial restrictions associated with the grants. We just have to deliver the increased capacity. I'm also pleased to announce that we have entered into a U.

Speaker 1

K. Export finance development guarantee facility for up to £80,000,000 This is a 4 year arm's length facility on similar commercial terms to our RCF. It brings our total available facilities and overdrafts to $246,000,000 giving us significant flexibility when we think about investments in further organic growth. So next, a recap on capital allocation. Overall, we want to maintain a resilience balance sheet and will target leverage of less than 1.5x.

Speaker 1

First, we'll continue to invest in the business. Kemmering Nobel remains primary focus for further investment. We recently announced the feasibility study in Norway and similar conversations are ongoing with a number of governments. But we were also looking at opportunities to add capacity and the increased automation in some of our other businesses like the U. K.

Speaker 1

Countermeasures business and Roke. 2nd, we'll continue to execute focused M and A within our core and close adjacencies, in particular Roke and U. S. Space and Missiles. We'll remain disciplined, and we have a healthy pipeline of opportunity.

Speaker 1

3rd, dividends, a key part of shareholder returns. The target of annual dividend cover of 2.5 times has now been met, and so we expect to maintain that level of cover going forwards. And finally, we'll return surplus capital to shareholders. The buyback program has returned $37,000,000 to shareholders, and the Board has determined that the relatively small amount remaining is better utilized in ongoing operations. So the current buyback program will therefore lapse today.

Speaker 1

Now let's turn to FY 'twenty five and how we see that progressing. In Countermeasures and Energetics, we're targeting low double digit growth. That is made up of low double digit growth in Energetics and mid single digit growth in Countermeasures. Sensors and Information will be flat. U.

Speaker 1

S. Sensors will decline as JBTDS has now completed low rate initial production, and we await the start of full rate production expected in FY 'twenty six. This will offset continued growth in Roque. And because we expect Sensors and because of this, we expect Sensors and Information to decline slightly in the first half. We are targeting mid teens margin in the medium term, but unlikely to hit that in 'twenty five.

Speaker 1

And we expect the H1, H2 phasing to be similar to 'twenty four with about a forty-sixty split in operating profit. The impact of the U. K. Government's recently announced increases to National Insurance will be 1,700,000 in 'twenty five, rising to 2,600,000 once the impact annualizes. We'll work hard to absorb as much of that as possible, but a proportion will drop through to our bottom line.

Speaker 1

We'll provide more detail on that at the half year. There are also some external factors which could impact us in the near term. We have administration change in the U. S. And a strategic defense review in the U.

Speaker 1

K. Both could lead to short term timing disruption and obviously, any significant movements in FX. Right. Next, I wanted to give you the building blocks to our ambition to hit $1,000,000,000 revenue by FY 'thirty. Energetics will add more than $170,000,000 $100,000,000 for the expansion projects we've already announced plus more than $70,000,000 from the underlying business growing at mid single digit CAGR.

Speaker 1

Roque will have more than €100,000,000 in revenue. Roque grew 23% this year. And whilst it won't be completely linear, we see Roque growing at a high- to mid single digit CAGR to €250,000,000 in FY 'twenty eight and then beyond. U. S.

Speaker 1

Sensors will add more than $30,000,000 from the current baseline, stepping up to more than $55,000,000 as JBTDS enters full rate production. Countermeasures will add $25,000,000 from low single digit growth, that's assuming there's no forced deployment. And then we'll add another £150,000,000 from further capacity expansion in energetics or through bolt on M and A. On margins, we've guided mid teens in the medium term, but you can imagine we'll add some significant revenue in our high margin businesses, and so you'd expect some operational leverage in the longer term. So that was the numbers.

Speaker 1

Now for innovation. One of our core values and something that has been one of my highlights since joining Kemmering, visiting our businesses and learning about the amazing work we are doing. We flagged this before. We have over 1,000 people working at the cutting edge of technology. We spend €150,000,000 a year on R and D, of which about 90% is customer funded.

Speaker 1

We are a key part of the supply chain for current and future missile systems with our highly engineered components providing a critical function. Our business in Chicago was well known for its pyro actuation technology with strong relationships with all the major U. S. Primes. We've recently been working on a new hypersonic missile program for the U.

Speaker 1

S. Army and Navy, and we just qualified 2 devices: a bolt cutter to separate the glide body on the right and a pyro valve, which releases gas to charge its guidance system on the left. Our business in Scotland also supplies similar pyro actuation technology to the European missile primes, but Roke is also innovating in this area. Accurately measuring how close you are to the ground is vital, even more so if you're an unmanned aerial vehicle. The first iteration of the miniature radar altimeter solved this problem for low speed or hover applications.

Speaker 1

But it soon became clear that terrain following and mapping required higher processing speed. Rogue have gone on to optimize the software and algorithms to form in high maneuverability situations. This ensures the platform can respond quickly to changes in altitude and cope with high velocities. You can imagine, there are a number of applications for this technology from drones to long range strike missiles. Innovation always has been and always will be a key driver for the group.

Speaker 1

So thank you. That brings me to the end of my section. I'll hand back to Mick to the strategy and outlook.

Operator

Thanks, James. Let me briefly remind you of our strategic imperatives. Our approach remains evolution, not revolution, and our values of safety, excellence and innovation are foundational to all of our plans, as does our relentless focus on balancing near term performance with longer term growth and value creation. And beyond that, our strategy is based around 3 imperatives. Our primary focus is to grow the company by investing in our businesses and the development of our people, our intellectual property and our infrastructure.

Operator

Next, we will seek to accelerate further growth with bolt on acquisitions, most likely in the area in the rogue areas of Defense Electronics, Information Advantage and Active Cyber Defense and also in the design and manufacture of mission critical components and devices used in space and missile applications. And our 3rd imperative is the continued investment in our sole source, market leading businesses with a focus on improving safety, modernization, automation and new product development. Turning now to the market environment. Whether it's the ongoing conflicts in the Ukraine or the Middle East or the increasing threats in the Asia Pacific, geopolitical tensions are continuing to drive a fundamental rearmament upcycle, which is expected to last at least another decade. In the U.

Operator

S, the incoming administration are signaling a focus on deterrence against emerging threats, and we expect U. S. Defense spending to at least grow in line with inflation. Here in the U. K, the new government has reaffirmed the commitment to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, and they have launched a strategic defense review and a defense industrial strategy.

Operator

We expect both will present further opportunities for all of our UK businesses, but we're also maintaining a close watch on the risks of delay in the government procurement process while the SDR is running. More broadly, NATO members are increasing spending on defense and the capacity and capability of their sovereign defense industrial bases. All NATO countries are seeking to achieve a minimum of 2% GDP spent on defense, and 23 out of the 32 members are now meeting this threshold. In supporting our customers to win in the ever changing threat environment, we see 3 drivers which present opportunities for the group to support our customers. Firstly, the security threats in the Asia Pacific will continue to require investment in standoff and area denial missile systems and space based systems, both of which are areas where we are very incumbent.

Operator

2nd, the threat to Europe has resulted in many nations seeking to restore and enhance their defense and national security capabilities. This is a combination of new technology driven solutions, such as electronic warfare and information advantage and traditional defense capabilities, such as artillery rounds and shoulder launched missiles. The third is a threat to the UK's national security. Driven in part by the other two threats, the UK also faces threats of terrorism and organized crime, which continue to require rogue's capabilities, inactive cyber defense and operational mission support, and we see an increasing use of artificial intelligence and other niche digital technologies. I want to draw a specific focus on what is happening in the area of munitions and missiles, where the capacity sorry, where the criticality of production and stockpiles has received significant attention from multiple commentators.

Operator

We all know in the 35 years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, successive governments across NATO have allowed their military stockpiles to reduce, and we all now know that Ukraine has proved these planning assumptions to be wrong. We are told stockpiles are now at low levels, and it is becoming clear that governments are increasingly concerned about the lack of scale of the West Defense Industrial Base. We believe the increased demand for our products is very long term, which has underpinned our decision to invest to appropriately increase the capacity of our 3 energetics businesses. So how are those expansion plans progressing? The expansion of our Norwegian business is our largest growth opportunity as we expand production to satisfy the unprecedented demand for high grade military energetic material for use primarily in missile ammunition systems.

Operator

The business is currently operating at maximum capacity, and in parallel, we are executing on-site expansion programs, which will increase capacity up to 2 75%. A major milestone has been completion of the new asset recovery facility, which is the green building on the slide, which is now in the process of being commissioned. So progress is very real and very tangible. Such is the level of demand for KEMRI Nobel's materials, we are now looking at further expansion plans beyond that which we are delivering on-site. In October, in conjunction with the Norwegian government, we launched a feasibility study into the establishment of a new large scale production facility in Norway.

Operator

This co funded study will assess geographic locations, infrastructure requirements and environmental considerations, and it will also assess funding and commercial arrangements with the Norwegian government. We are also exploring options outside of Norway. Last month, we signed a 12 year framework agreement with Diehl Defence and received a €231,000,000 initial purchase order for MCX energetic material. As part of this agreement, we are also exploring options to perform the blending stage of the manufacturing process in Germany. Turning now to the U.

Operator

S, where we continue to see growing demand for precision engineered devices for space and missile applications and where our business in Chicago is a highly respected supplier to U. S. Government agencies, defense prime contractors and now a growing number of commercial space launch providers. In January, the business acquired an additional 45,000 square foot facility adjacent to its existing site, and the new facility doubled existing production floor space and commenced operations in April and has been and has significantly enhanced our ability to establish and maintain continuous flow manufacturing operations, which was essential if we were to deliver it against customer requirements and is also a key enabler for future growth. And in Scotland, where we are building the most advanced extruded double base propellants manufacturing facility in Europe and significantly increasing capacity in a safe and modern manufacturing environment.

Operator

The progress that has been made on-site throughout the year has been impressive, with the photos on this slide giving you an idea of the transformation that is taking place. The project is on schedule and within budget with buildings nearing completion and equipment starting to be installed. With the facilities being handed over in early 2025, we will then commence with a commissioning and qualification program, which given the nature of the product being manufactured is a comprehensive activity and we expect live production to begin no later than early 2027. Turning now to Roque, where FY 2024 has been another record year in terms of revenue, profit and cash generation. Roque's strategy is working, and by focusing predominantly on the tip of the spear, it has continued to cement its position as a key strategic supplier to the U.

Operator

K. Government's U. K. National Security Agencies. And despite government spending headwinds, multiple orders valued at circa £50,000,000 were received from the national security community.

Operator

In line with our focus on increasing revenue from the defense and product side of Roque, we've continued to see growing customer interest in our range of defense capabilities. A notable highlight during the period were further wins in electronic warfare with contracts received from customers in Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, the United Arab Emirates and Japan. The order for 10 Rizolv EW systems to Japan was particularly noticeable. This was Roque's 1st EW sale into the East Asia region and secures a high quality reference customer. So Roque now has a 5 year prospective sales pipeline that is valued at greater than £300,000,000 for defense products as customers increase their focus on these technologies.

Operator

Earlier, I mentioned the strategic defense review. From Rogue's perspective, our assessment is that our strengths are well aligned to the supporting the U. K. Government with the key challenges they identified in the terms of reference for the SDR. We therefore anticipate that the SDR should increase opportunities for Roque.

Operator

But as James commented earlier, there may be some headwinds, including departmental budget pressures until the SDR is published next year. Whilst we are mindful of these potential near term headwinds, it does not impact our plans to grow Roque's annual revenues to £250,000,000 by 2028, and that plan remains on track. So to conclude, we have made good progress in 2024 as we continue to build and grow our high quality and resilient business and as we invest for future growth. We have 77% of our expected 2025 revenue in the order book at the end of October, and the board's expectations for 2025 performance remains in line with the market expectations, but with a slight weighting to the second half. So with market leading innovative products, technologies and services that are critical to our customers and with a strong balance sheet, I'm very confident that we will meet our ambition of £1,000,000,000 in annual revenue by 2,030, and that we will continue to deliver on our commitment to balance near term performance with longer term growth and value creation.

Operator

That concludes the presentation. If anyone has any questions, we'll be happy to take them now. Can I please ask that you state your name and the organization that you represent?

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Chemring Group H2 2024
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