Enterprise Products Partners Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 1, 2024

There are 21 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Q4 2023 Enterprise Products Partners LP Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Randy Burkhalter, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners Conference Call to discuss 4th Quarter 'twenty three Earnings. Our speakers today will be Co Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's general partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call. During this call, we will make forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team.

Speaker 1

Although management believes that the expectations reflected When such forward looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements made during this call. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Vince. We generated $7,600,000,000 of distributable cash flow in 2023, providing 1.7x coverage and we retained $3,200,000,000 We set 9 financial records and 13 operating records in 23. Our 23 operating results included Records in NGL Pipeline Transportation, ethane exports, total NGL marine terminal volumes, NGL fractionation volumes, fee based natural gas processing volumes and crude pipeline and natural gas transportation volumes. In barrels of oil equivalent per day, Enterprise transported a record 12,200,000 barrels a day in 2023 compared to 11,200,000 barrels a day in 2022. During the Q4, we transported 12,700,000 barrels a day compared to 11,500,000 barrels a day in Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 2

We exported a record 2,300,000 barrels a day of liquid hydrocarbons. And that includes everything from crude oil to LPGs, ethane, refined products and basic petrochemicals, ethane and propylene. When you look at our exports, it's clear that enterprise is not a one trick pony. It's quite remarkable that volumes across all our pipes and facilities increased sequentially each quarter in 2023 supported by the strong supply and Demand fundamentals for hydrocarbons from the Permian and other basins we serve integrated with the midstream services that we have, including exports that we just discussed. Relative to commodity markets, 2023 was a relatively weak year, especially for natural gas and natural gas liquids.

Speaker 2

Nonetheless, Enterprise proved once again that we don't need really high prices to make substantial returns. The financial records and 13 operating records summarized were achieved In a commodity price environment where natural gas prices were down almost 60% from 'twenty two, Crude was down nearly 20%, propane was down 36%, Ethane was down almost 50% and the NGL processing basket was down 35%. Relative to the several 23 records at our marine terminals, we have long said that hydrocarbons would price to export proven once again in 2023. In growth capital during 'twenty three, we completed construction of $3,500,000,000 of process Projects. Significant assets put into service include 2 new natural gas processing plants in the Permian Basin and our 12th NGL fractionator in Chambers County.

Speaker 2

All of these assets were essentially full after operations began. While production of our PDH-two facility was completed in the Q3 of 'twenty three, We spent much of the remainder of the year addressing start up issues. As a result, this plant did not meet our in earnings in 'twenty three. We believe most of these issues have been resolved and we anticipate much higher utilization rates this year. We began 'twenty four with We begin 'twenty four with $6,800,000,000 of major organic projects under construction, with 3 projects representing approximately 1 $100,000,000 in capital investment expected to be completed this year.

Speaker 2

Major 24 projects include our Texas Western Products pipeline system and 2 additional processing plants in the Permian. We have considerable amount of growth capital underway. All of these projects provide strategic growth to our system and add considerable visibility to new sources of cash flow. I wanted to take a minute to talk about Project 9.3. We started this project in 'twenty two is an incentive for all employees to find innovative ways to improve the bottom line.

Speaker 2

This was especially important as we in the industry were reengaging after COVID and faced the challenges of a slower global economy in 2023. We achieved the goals we set for Russia both in 20222023. We are very proud of our employees for that accomplishment. That said, we will not have a Project 9 type program for 2024. You've always heard me say, if you want to know where we're going, look at what we're doing.

Speaker 2

The Permian Basin has been the cornerstone for much of our growth capital. As we look at 2024 and beyond, We see supply and demand opportunities as the Permian continues to grow And the world continues to have an ever increasing appetite for U. S. Hydrocarbons. We noted in the press release that these may be the most geopolitically challenging times since World War II, but it's abundantly clear that all of this chaos is leading itself to a growing appetite for the most stable hydrocarbon supplies in the world, USA, in spite of government and regulatory challenges, without a doubt relative to energy, our nation's Biggest geopolitical challenges continue to be self inflicted.

Speaker 2

Enterprise has one of the world's leading natural gas liquids franchise, and we have the liquids hydrocarbon storage and export franchise. On top of all of that, we have a dedicated employee base that creates value regardless of the environment. 2023 marked our 25th anniversary as a public company. It's been a great quarter century. It has been for the U.

Speaker 2

S. Energy Industry. It included the downfall of the energy merchants, The great financial crisis, the innovation of the E and P and oilfield service industries to unlock the potential of the shale plays, which is still continuing. It included the near death and remarkable renaissance of the U. S.

Speaker 2

Petrochemical industry from having the highest cost feedstock pre shell to now the lowest cost. It included 2 OPEC price wars, a once in a century pandemic and the reemergence of geopolitical upheaval. During this time, we stuck to our objectives of investing capital at reasonable returns, providing reliable value added services to customers, consistently returning capital to our partners and increasing the value of the partnership for the long term. During this time, the enterprise value of the partnership has grown from $1,200,000,000 to almost $90,000,000,000 The value of our partnership units has increased almost 400%. We increased our distribution 25 consecutive years $22,000,000,000 of capital to investors through distributions and buybacks.

Speaker 2

We have high quality employees and we thank our employees, we thank our customers, Our service providers, our banks and our investors for the contributions to this success. We're looking forward to the exciting opportunities and challenges for the next 25 years as the world's population, Quality of Demet Life and demand for energy reaches new heights. Put frankly, Based on what I see in the future for energy, I'd give anything if I could turn the clock back and be 50 years old. With that, I'll turn it over to Randy.

Speaker 3

All right. Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone. Starting off with the income statement, the net income attributable to common unitholders for the Q4 of 2023 was $1,600,000,000 or $0.72 per common unit on a fully diluted basis. This compares to $1,400,000,000 or $0.65 per common unit for the Q4 of 2022.

Speaker 3

Adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital was $2,200,000,000 for the Q4 of 2023 compared to $2,100,000,000 for the Q4 of 20 22. We declared a distribution of $0.515 per common unit for the Q4 of 2023, which is a 5.1% increase over the distribution declared for the Q4 of 2022. The distribution will be paid February 14 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on January 31. In the Q4, the partnership purchased 3,700,000 common units Off the open market was $96,000,000 total purchases for 2023 were $187,000,000 or 7,200,000 common units, bringing total purchases under our buyback program to over $900,000,000 I mentioned it on the last call looking at our 5 largest midstream peers by market cap. Since 2019, Enterprise is the only midstream energy company to reduce absolute outstanding units outstanding without significant asset sales.

Speaker 3

In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased a combined 6,600,000 common units on the open market for $172,000,000 during 2023. For 2023, Enterprise paid out approximately $4,300,000,000 in distributions to limited partners. These distributions combined with the buybacks for the year resulting in our having a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 56 percent and a payout ratio of adjusted free cash flow of 94%. Total capital investments in the Q4 of 2023 were $1,000,000,000 which included $823,000,000 growth capital projects, dollars 65,000,000 for the acquisition of a small natural gas storage facility that we have historically leased and $129,000,000 of sustaining capital expenditures. Capital investments for the year of 2023 were $3,300,000,000 which includes $2,750,000,000 of organic growth capital projects, $100,000,000 in asset acquisitions and $413,000,000 of sustaining capital expenditures.

Speaker 3

During the Q3 call, we estimated $3,000,000,000 of organic growth capital expenditures in 2023 and a range of $3,000,000,000 to $3,500,000,000 in 2024. Due to the timing of expenditures, We had approximately $250,000,000 of CapEx shipped from 2023 into 2024. Therefore, we now expect our 2024 growth capital expenditures to total $3,250,000,000 to $3,750,000,000 We expect 2024 sustaining CapEx will be approximately $550,000,000 which includes dollars per planned turnarounds at PDH-one, our IBDH and our high purity isobutylene facility. These scheduled turnarounds typically occur every 3 to 4 years for these type plants. Our total debt was approximately $29,000,000,000 as of December 31, 2023.

Speaker 3

Assuming the final maturity date of our hybrids, The weighted average life of our debt portfolio was approximately 19 years. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.6%. At December 31, approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate. Our consolidated liquidity was $3,900,000,000 at the end of the 4th quarter, which includes availability of our credit facilities and unrestricted cash. Adjusted EBITDA, as Jim mentioned earlier, was $9,300,000,000 for 2023.

Speaker 3

We ended the year with consolidated leverage ratio of 3.0 times on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by partnership's unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains 3 times plus or minus a quarter turn, so 2.75 to 3.25 times. In January, we issued $2,000,000,000 of senior notes comprised of $1,000,000,000 of 3 year notes at a coupon of 4.6 percent $1,000,000,000 of 10 year notes at a 4.85% coupon. The proceeds from this offering will go toward an upcoming $850,000,000 debt maturity in February, I guess this month, and funding our capital expenditure program. We appreciate the continued support of our debt investors.

Speaker 3

Moving on to future events, Enterprise will host an analyst and investor call on Wednesday, April 3. This will be in lieu of our in person Analyst Day. This call will include overviews on our current outlook, near term objectives, allocation of capital as well as a fundamentals update from Tony. Q and A will follow our prepared remarks. More information will be provided in the coming weeks.

Speaker 3

Before we open the call up to questions, Jim and I would like to take a moment to recognize Randy Burkhalter, our Vice President of Investor Relations. After a 46 year career in the energy industry, Randy has announced his retirement for April of this year. Randy has led our Investor Relations effort for the past 21 years when he joined us shortly after our acquisition of the Mid America and Seminole pipelines. Through the Annual Institutional Investor Magazine All American Team Surveys, Enterprise and our Investor Relations team have been consistently recognized by the sell side and buy side community As one of the best in the midstream sector, Randy has been integral to leading this effort. We are grateful for Randy's service, his integrity, his attention to customer service and his industry renowned social prowess.

Speaker 3

Please join us in congratulating Randy on his 46 year career and a job well done. Most of you have met Libby Straig. Libby will succeed Randy in leading our IR effort. Libby is one of our young all stars who joined the company in 2013 and worked in commercial roles of increasing responsibility across several of our business units Before joining the IR team, 2019, she and Michael Czarek, another one of our all stars will comprise our IR team.

Speaker 2

Randy, as it relates to Randy Burkhalter, I think it's fair to say We have already scheduled a quarterly visit by Randy to the building to have a couple of scotches bar downtown at least once a quarter.

Speaker 3

With that, I think we're now ready to open the call up to questions.

Operator

Thank Our first question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and congrats, Randy. And Jim, please send me the invite for the scotch I wanted to start with maybe Your latest views on Permian growth in 2024, both for oil and for gas. And then Kind of a related topic, clearly there's seems like there will be need for another Permian gas takeaway. You had talked about a brownfield project A little while back, it's been kind of quiet lately.

Speaker 4

So I want to get your latest thoughts on Permian gas takeaway solution in light of your growth outlook.

Speaker 5

Hey, Michael, this is Tony. In our last analyst meeting, which was March of 2023, We talked about growth in the United States of call it 1,800,000 barrels. I'll just go to oil right now. We gave you some basic metrics as to what happens with the oil, but 1,800,000 barrels in the 2023, 20 24, 2025 timeframe. Obviously,

Speaker 3

there was a lot of pushback

Speaker 5

when we published that forecast from all sides, including producers that hadn't looked at the number like we had. And what I'll say about that number now, of that 1.8%, we said 1.5% in the Permian Basin. Certainly, given the performance of producers during 2023, the producer community is on track to meet and likely beat those numbers. And

Speaker 6

I don't

Speaker 5

know how that changes at this pace. And then combined growing wedge of PDP that a lot of people forget about in key basins coupled with a continuous improvement in efficiency and productivity that we see from the producer community. So that's we'll talk about it more in early April, but I think the cliff notes now What we know is it's really going to be hard not to at least meet and likely beat that number as we look at the 3 year period, Very much Permian dominated. Relative to gas pipelines, We've talked about a simple metrics before for every 1,000,000 barrels incremental that you have with oil. You have somewhere in the neighborhood of available, 4000 to 500,000 barrels of NGLs.

Speaker 5

And for rich gas, call that anywhere from 3.25 Bcf to 3.5 Bcf, okay? So you do the math, you look at what we have today and incremental capacity Over the next 2 years, it's coming on as appreciable. Will there need to be more between now and 2,030? Yes. The answer to that is yes, in some form or fashion.

Speaker 5

Whether it be brownfield on existing pipes or another greenfield pipe.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thanks for all that. Tony, maybe it would just stay on gas. My second question, just wanted to ask about Pause in LNG permitting and well, I know you're not you don't have an LNG asset per se. Curious how, if at all, this would impact your business in 'twenty four and beyond?

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay, Michael, this is Jim. And I guess, I wonder is it truly a pause or is it something more? And with those projects that are not under construction, But going through the regulatory process be allowed to continue to go through that process during this temporary pause Or will all work stop? Our fundamental group says we'll have 75 years of reserves at current production with current technology. You look at it, our LNG has had a huge difference to our allies.

Speaker 2

In 2019, we averaged 1.85 Bcf a day to Europe. In 2023, We exported on average 7.5 Bcf a day with a winter peak of over 9 Bcf a day. We went from less than 10% market share LNG into Europe to 50% market share. Rusty Brazil in his RBN blog this morning has an excellent write up on this issue. So really, you have to sit back and wonder, is this a temporary pause or is it a political pause?

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Neil Mitra with Bank of America. You may proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning. Congratulations, Randy. First question was on the NGL Sports and hitting a quarterly record. Could you maybe comment on the export dynamics right now, Just with the weaker PDH demand and the plants coming up slower than normal, but also lower NGL prices in the U. S.

Speaker 7

And how that probably is trending for 2024?

Speaker 8

Yes, this is Tug Hanley. So we've had strong operational performance on our EHT assets, which has led to healthy volumes going across the dock. There's also been a decrease in freight values we've seen, which is continuing to support stronger FOB values. With respect to the weaker, PDH margins on an international level, the PDH margins have improved, but there's still a lot of overcapacity. So necessarily weak margins don't lead to decreased NGL demand, because it's still the demand is still ultimately there.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then, my second question related to Bahia. And I was just wondering if you could maybe give some puts and takes as to Where you can see additional volumes picked up, believe Navitas isn't going through your system right now, maybe the Lucid volumes come up for recontracting in kind of later in the decade and where you could see some additional opportunities to pick up volumes that aren't contracted under your system right now?

Speaker 9

Hi, Neal. It's Justin Kliger. Yes.

Speaker 8

So kind of

Speaker 9

like 3 buckets of Bahia that we think about 1st and foremost is our growing GMP footprint. So you think about a metric of every new gas plant we put on, We yield about 40,000 to 45,000 barrels a day of NGLs into Bahia. So we're growing our footprint both in the Delaware and the Midland. So that's always the base load as we think about Bahia. And then on top of that, we have a robust set of third party agreements.

Speaker 9

We've got 40 connections on our wide grade system that gives us a lot of diversity to go capture incremental third party volumes as that market ebbs and flows. And we got a good runway of contracts on those that get the back end of the decade without having to really worry about any contract roll off. And then 3rd, we're kind of our expectation is that Seminole won't be an NGL service once the Bia comes online. You add all those up and that's kind of how we landed on the capacity that we created out of the gate at 600 a day.

Speaker 2

And Natalie, do you think we're through building processing plants out there?

Speaker 10

I don't think we're through.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays. You may proceed.

Speaker 11

Good morning. I'd like to echo the Congratulations to Randy on his retirement after a stellar career. We wish you continued social prowess and also congratulations to Libby and Michael. When we look at your organic projects backlog, it's a robust set of opportunities. And as we look beyond 2025, Just trying to think about what a run rate should be knowing that you still do have some projects under development and some of them sizable.

Speaker 11

Is that $3,000,000,000 or $3,000,000,000 plus number a good run rate or how should we think about that?

Speaker 3

Yes. Theresa, I'll start off. We're $6,800,000,000 worth of projects under construction. And again, this year, it will range from $3,000,000,000 $3,250,000,000 to 3 point $75,000,000,000 2025 is $3,000,000,000 And then there's a little bit of roll off with that $6,800,000,000 that creeps over into 2026. The one thing I would just note is in that 6,800,000,000 We've had we've got 2 lumpy projects, being Bahia Pipeline and also the export facility that we're building on the Natchez River.

Speaker 3

And so if you if I come in and look forward and Your expectation will continue to see build out with natural gas processing, with the Gas gathering and compression that supports that. I keep coming back that I really think that going forward, absent spot that were more in the $2,000,000,000 range It's where I keep coming out. Just again, because we've had some lumpy projects. We just put PDH-two into service In 2023, that was another lumpy project. So just don't foresee a lot of those Lumpy projects coming, with the exception of spot.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

But with spot, that's probably a 3 year construction cycle.

Speaker 11

Understood. And in terms of projects that are coming online near term, for your Texas West product system, Can you remind us, how much of that is underwritten by 3rd party commitments versus open capacity that you hope to market and capture that ARP, especially in light of the fact that since you announced the project, One of your midstream competitors who also has significant marketing capabilities bought a huge refined product system and is also looking to close Patu and Patour Arts.

Speaker 9

Hey Theresa, it's Justin Kleiter again and Tug may chime in on a piece of that as well. But as we develop the project, it's really it really has developed into Really a rack marketing model. We had the first phase of startup really impending And the timing of the rest of it should be lined out in the deck. But we've got significant interest. We've got 40 3rd party contracts agreed to across the terminals and we're signing up more seemingly daily.

Speaker 9

So people are just For it to come on, but we do think similar to Dixie and our legacy propane long haul pipelines being sort of an uncontracted rack based model that that's the model that we're going to see on TW.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Operator

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities. You may proceed.

Speaker 12

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 13

Good morning.

Speaker 12

And Randy, I want to wish you congratulations here. Good luck with everything going forward. You will be missed and thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jeremy.

Speaker 12

And I just want to start off, I guess, with The recent Houston Ship Channel enhancements that we've seen over time here, wondering if you could comment on how that's impacted your LPG export capabilities, have you seen any kind of improvements there given the changes? Just curious how that has developed.

Speaker 14

Yes, this is Bob Sanders. Late in Q4 last year, the Houston pilots removed the daylight restriction on LPG ships. So we can sail 24 hours a day loaded or empty and we are incrementally picking up the number of vessels we're bringing in to try to maximize the the utilization of the refrigeration units that we've got right now. So we are seeing a direct benefit.

Speaker 12

Got it. Just curious if that's a minor or maybe bigger expansion? And also Tony, I guess I'm curious, I guess with Thoughts on LPG pricing here. I guess there's a concern in the marketplace that LPG exports might be maxed out and that could Dislocate domestic pricing relative to international price markers. So just wondering how you see that playing out?

Speaker 14

I'll answer the first piece a little bit. We're seeing about a 5% to 7% gain at this point.

Speaker 8

I think on pricing, you've seen NGLs catch a bit here recently. I think Some of what Bob mentioned has helped with pricing. As freight's come off, there's been a benefit to certainly to propane and butane on the flat price. But if you look at the growth that Tony mentioned earlier, We have NGLs growing at a faster pace than crude oil. We're seeing it across our system.

Speaker 8

Storage is going to become more increasingly valuable. These expansions don't come on until 'twenty five, 'twenty six timeframe. So we expect the docs to remain at capacity and then ultimately, the flat price of NGLs will be reflective of that. Yes, this is Doug. I'll just add that we're actually seeing that already manifest itself on our spot dock values.

Speaker 8

They're upwards in the double digits right now.

Speaker 12

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you for that.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Brian Reynolds with UBS. You may proceed.

Speaker 13

Hi, good morning everyone and Randy. Thanks for all the time you spent with me and the community over the last 21 years, and thanks for leaving the team in good hands at Libbey and Michael.

Speaker 12

Thank you, Brian.

Speaker 13

Maybe to start off on the NGL macro. Jim, on the last call, you kind of talked about competitive market dynamics right now where EPD seems to be threading the needle of maximizing return while preventing some new entrants into the integrated NGL value chain.

Operator

Well, I appreciate some of

Speaker 13

the opening remarks from Tony to Michael's question around Permian growth. Just kind of curious if how we should think about maybe volume growth is going to be really attractive over the next few years, but kind of curious if we can how transportation frac and export rates should look relative to what they've been in the past decade is really attractive. Thanks.

Speaker 8

Hey, Brian, this is Brent. I mean, it kind of varies based on the service. I think everything that you see on a processing side, Certainly on the kind of long haul pipeline is a new build economic type number. Fractionation is probably in that group too. I think when you look across NGL docs, when you look at the entrants that are in that space right now, I think Anybody who wants to be in that space is going to have to compete with Brownfield Economics.

Speaker 8

And if you look at where FOB values are going for both ethane and LPGs. It is incredibly, incredibly difficult to make a project accretive. That's a new entrant in that space.

Speaker 2

So Brent, put directly, while Tug says On our spot deals, we have double digit tourmaline values. What can you do a 5 year deal at?

Speaker 8

I think when you look at I don't want to be totally specific on this, but The fees on LPGs are considerably less than what we're seeing today. I don't think anybody's going to go out there and try to justify a project based on values that we see Because we have capacity that we're contracting, I think others have capacity that are contracting. And then on the ethane piece, That's a very competitive market. I would have a hard time thinking enterprise would be in that market if we hadn't been one of the first ones in that market.

Speaker 2

So you couldn't build a Greenfield terminal based on what we think The terminalling fees are going to be? Absolutely not. Okay.

Speaker 13

Great. Thanks. Appreciate all that. As my follow-up, maybe just an update on the spot license and permit process. You alluded to some comments around LNG And maybe have some having some impacts on the upcoming U.

Speaker 13

S. Elections, just kind of curious if we should see any risks to the timeline around the spot licensing and permitting process relative to maybe expectations from last year? Thanks.

Operator

This is Bob.

Speaker 2

Hang on, Bob. Brian, didn't say anything about the elections, by the way. Right now, we haven't we've got a record decision. I'll let Bob tell you what else we've got. But right now, we don't see anything that should preclude us getting that license.

Speaker 14

So where we are with Murad, we have completed all the requirements to receive the license. We're in constant contact with Murad. Matter of fact, we have seen a draft of the license, which they asked us to comment on, which we've commented on, and they've accepted our changes. So Everything is basically done. We're just waiting on knowledge that we've got the license.

Speaker 13

Great to hear. I'll leave it there. Enjoy the rest of your day and thanks again.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truett Securities. You may proceed.

Speaker 15

Good morning all. Thanks for the time. And Randy, congrats and look forward to hearing what's next for you. Can only imagine. My first question is on guys on marketing.

Speaker 15

Specifically, I'm just wondering, did you all capture some of the commodity price volatility experienced with this last, I guess I'd call it the January cold snap perhaps in Waha or the HSE spread?

Speaker 8

Neil, this is Brent. We were able to capture some there were some Kind of puts and takes on that whole weather event. There were some operational issues that we had in Midland That are getting fixed, but from a marketing perspective, there was some arbitrage capture on our side.

Speaker 2

We pulled all our levers is what you're saying.

Speaker 8

That's right.

Speaker 15

Great. And then my second question just on the PDH plans. Just wondering, it sounds like for the Q2 row, you all mentioned a bit of operational challenges maybe with the reactor and licenses issue. I'm just wondering, I think, Randy, you have for Fallow. You mentioned, I think, last quarter, you thought they'd maybe be more one off.

Speaker 15

And just wondered if something changed here and maybe just talk about your sort of future view of the ops there?

Speaker 16

This is Graham. Yes, we did have some operating issues in the Q4 with the PDH plant. Some of those are related to some construction related startup issues, some design issues. At this point, we think we've got The unit is up and operating. We're not quite at 100% capacity, but we've got line of sight On the fixes, that will be taking place here soon.

Speaker 16

And I think at that point, we can expect we'll have Good operating unit. All the other parameters of the unit that we look at in terms of robustness and ability to maintain operation are really looking good right now. There's just one issue, one more issue we've got to get passed. I think we'll be looking at a good unit there.

Speaker 15

Very good. Thanks for the details guys.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank. You may proceed.

Speaker 17

Hi, good morning guys. Congrats to Randy. We appreciate all the time you Mr. Fowler, you guys have framed up the return of capital slide for a long time and We've seen that payout ratio, that adjusted payout ratio increase over time. And just curious with the stability you're seeing in the earnings base And the stability you're seeing in CapEx sort of as you mentioned over the long term, do you see that payout ratio Changing meaningfully over time or is there a way to think about a long term target for that adjusted cash flow ratio, particularly when you sit in such an advantage position from a leverage standpoint?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 3

I'm thinking of how to frame that because you had quite a bit in there. Several of our peers in the energy sector have come in with a formulaic approach on returning capital. And I think we've just been hesitant to doing that because we live in a very dynamic world and opportunities come up. And so really Coming in and locking into a formula of so much distribution and so much buyback, More often than not, when I've seen companies come in with those formulas, they're forever tweaking them or rescinding them. And they really have a short shelf life.

Speaker 3

I really just come back and look at Jim went through Some of our history of returning capital for our 1st 25 years, we're going to continue to come in and do that. As far as distribution growth, I think you've seen over the last 2 or 3 years, we're back to mid single digit distribution growth, which is good to be there. And then we've been doing buybacks steadily on this. And I think if obviously if we come into an era where we're not spending as much CapEx Then we'll have more flexibility to come in and do buybacks. They'll still be opportunistic buybacks.

Speaker 3

And I think you saw that. In the Q3, the unit price was really pretty strong and we just opted Not to come in and do any buybacks in the Q3 of 2023, but when we got into year end tax selling and saw the weakness in 2024, We executed buybacks at a better level even considering the distribution that we The November distribution, we still executed at a better buyback level in the 4th quarter than what was available in the 3rd quarter. So I think we'll continue to be opportunistic going forward. And then I think we just need to see what kind of opportunities that we have in the future. But again, I come back in and I don't know of another midstream Maybe other than

Speaker 16

what's the Canadian

Speaker 3

That has successfully returned capital the way that we have over the last 25 years. So that was long winded, but I hope that helps.

Speaker 17

I appreciate it, Randy. And then Maybe just on the Bahia question, to ask it a different way. I think given the pace of NGL pipeline volumes today, Plus Tony's forecast and Justin's earlier comments, is there an opportunity for the capacity of Bahia to expand as you progress through construction as we go into 2025? Or are we seeing enough competing pipes in the market where This is this should be pretty balanced in 2025?

Speaker 9

Yes, Tristan, this is Justin. We picked 100 for the reasons before, but you think of a 30 inches pipeline, if it's fully horsepower, it could do upwards of 1,000,000. But we're trying to be capital efficient about how we phase into it. So if our forecasts are right and we need more than what we have today, we can add pumps on it to upsize it.

Speaker 17

Appreciate it. Thank you guys very much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning and congrats as well, Randy. You've definitely been one of the most helpful and friendly IR people that I've gotten a chance to work with. So thank you. Thank you. I wanted to start just on the outlook like the outlook for the year.

Speaker 6

So understanding you're not giving the employee goal for EBITDA for 2024. At a high level though, you had a lot of momentum exiting 2023 in your results. You have a fair amount of capital enduring service with PDH 2 and a couple of plants, you're still constructive on volumes. Is it fair to say 2024 should be a relatively stronger growth year? Or are there any headwinds or things you would point to versus 2023 that could be an offset.

Speaker 2

I think this is Jim. I think 2024 is shaping up to be a better year than 2023. It's not just the assets we've brought on. We're seeing, for example, And Brent's got some information. Our processing margins on what is not fee based is looking better.

Speaker 2

You might want to address that.

Speaker 8

If you just look at the Q4 on what we have floors in our processing contracts, especially around the Midland Basin. So in the Q4, I think those floors were at around they were all hit about 97% of those contracts hit the floor. In fact, December was 100%. So as things get more constructive on gas, we'll see if that happens. Certainly, we were there were some benefits in January.

Speaker 8

We're seeing some benefits in the current month on NGLs, but That number is probably around 62% in January to hit the floor. So I think from a processing standpoint, there definitely benefits across the portfolio that we'll see.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank

Speaker 2

you. It seems like each quarter we transport more and more hydrocarbons.

Speaker 6

Right. Yes. Q4 volumes are definitely strong.

Speaker 3

And Keith, this is Randy. I think the other thing is Just as you I think we've again, we've got a pretty good track record that if you look out over time, Our average return on capital has been I mean, it's when you look at the total company has ranged from 10% to 13%. And then when you come in and you look at the CapEx, specifically the projects that we're putting into service And the level of capital expenditures that we have, I think what that translates to over a 3, 4 year period is probably mid single digit EBITDA growth. Now you're not going to be able to use a ruler on that number, but that's about what it works out to be. And then you may have some variability in and around that kind of number.

Speaker 3

But I think if you come back in and just Look at what we've been able to do in the past and look at the amount of capital investment that we're making, I think that's where it would take you.

Speaker 2

The other thing is look at our people are relentless and visiting customers and getting new deals. I've been shocked at the appetite, for example, for our ethane export dock. And so we're probably going to build new processing plants in the Permian and I would expect that we're going to fill up our ethane export docks and our LPG docks. The other thing we're seeing is more crude flows to Houston. So we're seeing more crude across our docks.

Speaker 6

That's all very helpful. And Jim, if I can kind of follow-up on that last point, the NGL export volumes were very strong in Q4 And you noted the removal of the daylight restrictions helping you. Can you give a sense of how close the company is to its capacity Based on that Q4 export number, are you able to keep increasing exports this year before some of the expansion start up in 2025?

Speaker 2

I think if you look at NGLs as a whole and maybe crude oil, yes. If you look at LPG, I think things are going to be tight in terms of dock space on LPG. That gets resolved probably mid next year. But for 2024 and maybe part of 2025, LPG is going to be Pretty tight. You have something?

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein. You may proceed.

Speaker 18

Hi, good morning. Do you forecast Permian processing utilization staying as tight as it is now over the next couple of years. Said another way, is it a stretch to say that the timing of processing coming on will dictate the pace of Permian growth In your view?

Speaker 2

We'll just take that.

Speaker 8

I think, Jeanine, this is Brent. I expect it stay tight. When we look at our build out and the contracts that come on, there may be a short little window There's excess capacity, but it fills up very quickly. We'll lean on Tony for his forecast. But what Tony has told us in years past has certainly come true.

Speaker 8

If not, it's been even more prolific. And then When you look at capacity right now, I think there is gas, it's being held back in the basin. It's waiting on compression And it's waiting on processing capacity.

Speaker 10

That's exactly what I was going to say. It's not just processing. Some of it's gathering compression in the field. It's behind. So once we see that bottleneck kind of get fixed, we'll see processing get full very quickly.

Speaker 18

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then one more, there's some discussion of upcoming Haynesville gas pipelines possibly being delayed due to legal issues. Is there any further expansion potential on Acadian or is that maxed out here?

Speaker 10

We're maxed out after our last expansion. I'd say the only I mean, we may be a benefactor if that project is late. However, Haynesville is flat to staying flat. Would you say that Tony?

Speaker 5

Jeannie, there's so much discussion about the Haynesville and what's going to happen. And honestly, I'm somewhat befuddled by it. And I think that's the right term. We've got LNG coming on in the Louisiana area. The call it is 4.5 Bcf to 5 Bcf over the next 2 years, Okay.

Speaker 5

And that's a big number. And it's it has there's nothing that the whole permitting thing that has recently happened to Jim addressed so well this morning, it impacts that. So we think that or we Talk like Louisiana and the Haynesville has the chance to go to hell in a handbasket. And I'm sorry, I just don't see it, Unless I'm missing something. The Haynesville, last but not least, It is one of the primary basins for a massive amount of long term storage of gas reserves.

Speaker 5

No question about it. So we still see it as an ideal and kind of a cornerstone basin for us relative to natural gas.

Speaker 18

Great. Thanks for that, Tony. And thank you, Randy, for all of your help over the years. You'll be missed. That's all for me.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi. You may proceed.

Speaker 19

Thanks, operator. Good morning, team. Two very quick follow ups from me. 1, Randy, just want to go back to the distribution growth and follow-up on Tristan's Question, the cadence the last call it 2 years or so has been an increase about every 2 quarters tracking around that 5% annual growth. I know you like to keep us guessing.

Speaker 19

So as we think going forward, how opportunistic is the distribution growth from here? Or is that something we should really kind of expect going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. Spiro, again, I just go back to our track record. We don't like to get out and front run our Board. But again, I think with the CapEx we're deploying the return on capital that we're expecting to get, I think coming in and we've been increasing distribution 25 years in a row and I feel pretty good about 26. So, and we've been doing it around mid single digits.

Operator

All right,

Speaker 19

fair enough. Second one just around M and A. You all purchased some natural gas storage assets during the quarter, pretty small

Operator

for you, so I don't want

Speaker 19

to read into it too much. But curious, is this sort of the beginning of a bigger push into natural gas storage or is it more opportunistic? As you look at the rest of your asset base, are there more opportunities like this to bolt on?

Speaker 2

That's a Wilson storage that we've leased for years years. And in the contract, they had the right to put it to us, and they put it to us. And it was a reasonable price. So we weren't upset.

Speaker 3

And that was legacy going back to Gulterra Energy Partners. We sort of inherited that when we acquired Gulterra.

Speaker 19

Okay, perfect. Thanks guys. I will save my Project 10 question for the April call. Thanks everyone.

Speaker 1

Josh, this is Randy. Let me cut in. We have time for one more question.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. And our next question comes from John McKay with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

Speaker 20

Hey, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the time. I just wanted to touch one more time on the export side. Understand that FOB spreads, FOB premiums are really high right now, but you talked about kind of outer coming down farther.

Speaker 20

Is it really just we are going to see these rates stay high until yours and your kind of competitors projects come online in 2025? Or would you expect some benefit there once or if the Panama Canal starts to clear up?

Speaker 8

Yes, we expect the rates to remain elevated until the expansion comes online from us and our competitors call that mid-twenty 5. But with respect to the Panama Canal, issues and even issues in the Red Sea, really haven't seen that, impact the fab value too much. The VLGC fleet has done a really good job at repositioning itself. There's over 380 VLGCs on the water help mitigate those issues. In fact, as I mentioned earlier, we've seen freight come down.

Speaker 8

So don't really see that impacting the FOB values too much How many VLGCs came on in 2023? How many do we expect in 24? Yes, call it around north of 40 VLGCs came online in 2020 and there's going to be another 22 or so, come online in 24.

Speaker 20

All right. That's great. Appreciate that. And maybe just one more clarification from earlier. Appreciated the color on the fee floors on processing in the Permian.

Speaker 20

Just one thing we wanted to try to frame up. I mean, if we look year over year, Permian processing volumes are up about 0.5 B, but margins effectively flat. Just curious if you can comment, is that all commodity impact or is there some kind of Underlying deflation on the fee side as well?

Speaker 8

It's all commodity.

Speaker 7

All right,

Speaker 20

makes sense. That's it for me. Thanks again.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Randy Burkhalter for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Josh. Before we close out, I'd like to thank Randy for the kind comments and the offer from you, Jim. And many thanks to all of you I've worked with through the years.

Speaker 2

He's getting a little emotional, y'all.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 10

And I guess with that, we'll end the call. Thanks to everyone for your participation.

Operator

Thank

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Enterprise Products Partners Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00