Lazard Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 1, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Lazar's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded. Currently, all participants are in listen only mode. Following the remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session. At this time, I will turn the call over to Alexander Degnan, Lazard's Head of Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Sustainability.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, and welcome to Lazard's Earnings Call for the Q4 and Full Year 2023. I'm Alexandra Deignan, Head of Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Sustainability. In addition to today's audio conference, we've posted our earnings release on our website. A replay of this call will also be available on our website later today.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, let me remind you that we may make forward looking statements about our business and performance. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, achievements or other events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward looking statements, including, but not limited to, those factors discussed in the company's SEC filings, which you can access on our website. Lazard assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of these forward looking statements and assumes no duty to update these forward looking statements. Today's discussion also includes certain non GAAP financial measures that we believe are meaningful when evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and investor presentation.

Speaker 1

Hosting our call today are Peter Orszag, Lazard's Chief Executive Officer and Mary Anne Vech, Lazard's Chief Financial Officer. Peter will begin some brief remarks before turning the over to Mary Anne, who will provide an overview of our financial results. Peter will then provide his perspective on current market conditions and the outlook for our business. After our prepared remarks, Peter and Mary Anne will be joined by Evan Russo, Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management, as they open the call for questions. I'll now turn the call over to Peter.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ali, and good morning, everyone. Our 4th quarter results represent a solid first step as we our long term growth plans. Activity during the Q4 also reinforces our confidence that the M and A cycle has turned a corner as we indicated on last quarter's call. We remain focused on providing sophisticated and differentiated advice and investment solutions for our clients and we are well positioned for a stronger year ahead. In addition to existing mandates, The quantity and quality of our dialogues suggest a productive 2024.

Speaker 2

At the same time, there is a high degree of geopolitical uncertainty that could affect business activity. I'll share more on our outlook shortly. But before I turn to Mary Anne to discuss our 4th quarter and full year results, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the new members of our Board of Directors announced earlier this week. Dan Schulman, who most recently served as CEO of PayPal and Steve Howe, former U. S.

Speaker 2

Chairman and Managing Partner of the Americas for Ernst and Young. Dan and Steve bring broad experience as executives and directors of numerous public companies. We are excited for their leadership as we refresh and reinforce the strength of our Board and pursue our ambitions for Lazard. Now let me turn the call over to Mary Anne.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Peter. Today, we reported firm wide operating revenue of $761,000,000 for the Q4 of 2023, up 13% from the Q4 of 2022. Operating revenue for the full year 2023 was 2 point $4,000,000,000 compared to $2,800,000,000 for the full year 2022. Global M and A announcements in 2023 fell to their level in a decade and completions were down 32% year over year. Our business was affected by this slowdown with Financial Advisory operating revenue totaling $1,400,000,000 for the full year 2023 compared to $1,700,000,000 for the prior year.

Speaker 1

4th quarter results, however, reflect the continued positive trend of more constructive client conversations, resulting in an increased number of announced deals. We reported Financial Advisory operating revenue of $477,000,000 for the 4th quarter, up 18% compared to the 4th quarter of 2022. Examples illustrating this trend include several large strategic transactions announced during the Q4 and in January, including Iliad's proposed merger with Vodafone, Western Digital Corporation's separation of HDD and Flash Businesses, Energy Exemplar's acquisition by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners, AbbVie's acquisition of ImmunoGen and Sanofi's acquisition of Inhibrix. Our advisory business in Europe had a particularly strong quarter year. Our U.

Speaker 1

K. Office had its highest quarterly revenue ever in the Q4. And in France, Lazard was ranked number 1 in market share for 2023. Our co heads of Europe's Financial Advisory Businesses are focused on integration and collaboration to capture cross border opportunities and are demonstrating strong results. Our Private Capital Advisory Group has continued to deliver meaningful growth in client mandates and fee income, especially in our secondaries business as investors in private equity look for sources of liquidity amidst volatile M and A and public markets.

Speaker 1

In addition, we see increasing client demand in our Global Restructuring and Liability Management Group. Client activity picked up significantly during the second half of twenty twenty three in both the U. S. And Europe, and we see continued strong demand for our services in part because we expect interest rates to remain higher for longer. We also continue to invest in our leading Sovereign Advisory business And our team is well positioned to serve clients as they navigate this prolonged higher rate environment.

Speaker 1

Finally, heightened interest from our clients in the geopolitical landscape remains and demand for our geopolitical advisory group services continues to increase as a result. Turning to Asset Management. 4th quarter operating revenue was $274,000,000 up 6% compared to the 4th quarter 1 year ago and up 4% from the prior quarter. Management fees for the 4th quarter were up 5% compared to the 4th quarter 1 year ago and down 1% from the prior quarter. For the full year 2023, management fees increased 1% compared to the full year 2022.

Speaker 1

Asset Management operating revenue was $1,100,000,000 for the full year, 3% lower than the prior year, reflecting lower incentive fees compared to 2022. As of December 31, we reported AUM of $247,000,000,000 8% higher than September 30, 2023 14% higher than December 31, 2022. Sequential increase from September 30 was due to market appreciation of $16,900,000,000 and foreign exchange appreciation of $5,000,000,000 offset by net outflows of $3,600,000,000 Average AUM for the 4th quarter was 234,000,000,000 an increase of 11% from the Q4 of 2022 and 1% lower on a sequential basis. Average AUM for the full year was $233,000,000,000 2 percent higher than 2022. During 2023, we saw positive net inflows across our global and European fundamental equity strategies, our quantitative platform and our U.

Speaker 1

S. And European fixed income strategy. In addition, our European and Asia Pacific Distribution teams won significant new business, including mandates from a public pension scheme in France, UOB Asset Management in Asia and Midwined Investment Trust in the UK. Now turning to expenses. Our adjusted compensation expense was 5 $15,000,000 for the Q4 and $1,700,000,000 for the full year 2023.

Speaker 1

Our adjusted compensation ratio was 69.8 percent for the year 2023 compared to 59.8 percent the year prior. Our awarded compensation ratio for 2023 was in the low 70s. Going forward, we will no longer disclose this measure as we understand it was not considered useful by investors. Importantly, we remain disciplined in setting compensation each year, balancing market dynamics, business performance and continued investment in talent. Our adjusted non compensation expense was $148,000,000 in the 4th quarter, 4% higher than the 4th quarter last year.

Speaker 1

Our adjusted non compensation expense was $572,000,000 for the full year 2023, 10% higher than the prior year. The year over year increase was primarily driven by increased occupancy and professional services expenses, including one time costs such as our C Corp conversion. Travel and entertainment expenses were also a factor, reflecting increased client and business development activity. We are on track to reach our target headcount reduction, which was previously announced last April and is due to be completed by the Q1 of this year. At the same time, we continue to invest in talent in key areas.

Speaker 1

Cost savings related to our headcount reduction will lag actual departure dates. And as revenues normalize, we aim to return to our target expense ratios over time. Shifting to taxes. Our effective tax rate for the Q4 as adjusted was 16% compared to 26.3% for the Q4 of 2022. Our effective tax rate for the full year 2023 was 14.5% compared to 25.7% for the full year 2022.

Speaker 1

Turning to capital allocation. In the Q4 of 2023, we returned $44,000,000 to shareholders, primarily through our quarterly dividend. For the full year 2023, we returned $330,000,000 to shareholders, including $173,000,000 in dividends, $102,000,000 in share repurchases and $55,000,000 in satisfaction of employee tax obligations. Additionally, yesterday we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. I'll now turn the call back

Speaker 2

to Peter. Thank you, Mary Anne. On our last call, I said that the Q3 was a turning point both for Lazard and for the M and A market. Our 4th quarter results are consistent with that observation as we increasingly build momentum and execute against our longer term ambitions for Lazard. Looking at Financial Advisory, the interplay between headwinds and tailwinds continues to create favorable conditions for M and A activity.

Speaker 2

Tailwinds remain strong as business leaders look for opportunities to capture technological innovation, address global supply chain shifts and drive revolutions in Life Sciences and Energy Sector. At the same time, the headwinds are increasingly subdued. While it is increasingly clear that interest rates may be higher for longer, the debate has shifted away from if rates will go up to when they will go down. And now that higher rates have been in place for a longer period of time, we are seeing buyers and sellers better align on valuations. In addition, financing markets are opening up, private equity is becoming active again and more boards and C suites are willing to pursue transactions in the wake of some favorable antitrust decisions by courts.

Operator

As a result,

Speaker 2

we are engaged in an expanded number of client conversations. We see stronger M and A activity across the U. S. And Europe and in a broad array of sectors, including technology, industrials, Financial Institutions, Healthcare and Energy, all of which are sectors where Lazard has deeply embedded networks and teams. We also see significant further revenue opportunities beyond M and A in our Capital Solutions, Restructuring and Liability Management businesses.

Speaker 2

As leaders in markets expect higher interest rates for longer and waves of debt maturities approach, clients increasingly floor solutions across the various options our teams provide. To support this growth and further build our leadership in the space, over the past 2 months, we announced 3 new Managing Directors in our Restructuring Group, 2 in New York and 1 in London. In Asset Management, we begin 2024 with $247,000,000,000 in assets under management, approximately 14% higher and at the start of 2023. Positive market sentiment and a widened dispersion of returns across asset classes is leading to increased activity and interest across our range of actively managed investment products. In addition, Evan's strategic plan is focused on stabilizing and optimizing the business, which has helped produce improved results throughout the year.

Speaker 2

Our investment teams continue to perform well in this market environment, And we've seen significant outperformance across our emerging markets, global quant and select local strategies. We're also continuing to add talent to the business with senior hires to our small cap equity platform in the 4th quarter and a recently announced new Head of our Japanese Business. During the Q4, we provided specific goals for our long term plan to double revenue by 2,030 and deliver an average annual total shareholder return of 10% to 15% through 2,030. In Financial Advisory, we are focused on high productivity growth. We are targeting an increase in average revenue per MD to $8,500,000 by 2025 and $10,000,000 by 2028, and a net addition of 10 MDs each year through internal promotions and lateral hires.

Speaker 2

In addition to 4 new MDs recently hired, which underscores our ability to attract world class professionals to Lazard, In January, we also promoted 10 new Managing Directors from within the firm, reflecting our long standing strength in developing internal talent. In Asset Management, we are focused on strengthening our traditional business while adding capabilities in less liquid products, primarily through inorganic opportunities. We are targeting approximately 30% of Asset Management revenue from alternatives in private markets and Wealth Management by 2,030. We will evaluate and pursue acquisitions in a programmatic disciplined manner with a focus on creating value for our shareholders. Let me now turn to the outlook for the year ahead.

Speaker 2

As we've shared previously, we expect 2024 to be better than 2023. We see continued signs of a healthy and strong economy and the tailwinds for M and A activity strengthening while headwinds abate. We also could experience an unusual environment in 2024 with increased M and A occurring alongside greater restructuring activity as rates remain high and debt maturities approach. We do note, however, that alongside these macroeconomic conditions, Geopolitical uncertainty is increasingly top of mind for decision makers. I remain very focused on building a commercial and collegial culture to execute our ambitions, pursuing a strategic path to achieving our Lazard 2,030 goals and creating value for our shareholders.

Speaker 2

To that end, we are pleased to have completed our conversion to a C Corporation on January 1. As we embark on the year ahead and our next chapter, Our complementary businesses, premier brand, established global leadership and extraordinary talent provide a strong foundation.

Operator

We'll take our first question from Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

Speaker 2

Hey, Rob. I

Operator

have a big picture question for Peter on the Lazard 2,030 strategy. And Slide 10 is really helpful in understanding the building blocks there. One of the drivers listed and you've talked about this before is increasing relevance. Can you help walk us through what specific changes culturally you're making to make sure that Lazard is top of mind for CEOs and Boards?

Speaker 2

Sure. And relevance is important not just kind of for its own sake, but because it then reinforces the brand and converts into revenue, so I want to make that clear. But there are lots of things that we are doing from increased Externally, so getting our top bankers and thinkers out on in the media on at conferences and so on to project the force of Lazard's insights and make it even more apparent to the world, the differentiated talent and insight that we have. We are doing a lot more convening events that bring together top CEOs and thought leaders into a place that into select places so that there are conversations that can occur that again are more than what one can get out of the newspapers say. And then we're building out new capabilities that increase our relevance.

Speaker 2

A great example of that is the geopolitical team. Clearly, as I said before, you can't make a business decision today without geopolitical considerations being taken into account and we have a top notch team that is helping our clients evaluate those questions.

Operator

Okay, great. And as I just think through wallet share, You're clearly focused on increasing productivity of MDs over time. You've also taken some actions to manage headcount. So when we put those 2 together, Is it a goal to keep your wallet share, but get more efficient or to grow wallet share?

Speaker 2

Our goal is to increase our wallet share. We believe that's what will occur as we Our 23 goals, but to do so in a way that is not just buying wallet share, but doing so in a high productivity manner. And the reason is that I just want to pause on is really important, which is as we raise our productivity for MD, The operating leverage that we get, especially on the non MD comp ratio is what allows us to then invest in new talent. So it's a self reinforcing cycle that as we raise productivity, we free up room in our comp ratio to make new investments in managing directors that leads to additional wallet share gains, additional relevance as we just discussed, but doing so in a manner that still fits within our comp and margin targets.

Operator

Great. Thanks. Thank you. Our next question will come from Devin Ryan with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hey, Devin.

Speaker 3

Hey, thanks. Good morning. First question just on those headcount reductions and the projected reduction of 10% And the run rate cost base by the end of 2023. Can you guys just give us an update on where we are on all those savings? How much of that was reinvested?

Speaker 3

Will be reinvested back in the business just because there's a lot of moving parts on expenses and then also appreciate that 2024 might be a little bit transition year and kind of a revenue recovery. So just trying to think through some of the moving pieces and kind of what that could mean for maybe non comp expenses in the absolute and maybe comp ratios on a relative basis? Thanks. Sure.

Speaker 2

So I'll start and then maybe Mary Anne will come in. Look, let's cut through all the complexity because I think this is pretty simple. We are committed to our Our long term margin targets both on comp and on non comp. So on comp, you should again Just keep in mind that our goal is to return to those traditional targets of being in the mid- to high-50s on the comp ratio as revenue normalizes. So all the other pieces are contributors to that.

Speaker 2

We are on target for the headcount reduction that we articulated early last year, which is a 10% reduction from the Q1 of 23 to the end of the Q1 of 2024, that is tracking. But again, it's not done for the sake of doing it, but rather to help us on our transition back to those traditional margin targets. And that's what I think you should be tracking. You're right also to point out that 2024 might be a transition year. It depends obviously on how from the revenue environment is, but we are committed to getting back to those traditional targets over time.

Speaker 2

And I know Maryann, if So

Speaker 1

the one thing, Devin, you mentioned non comp as well. So I would just say that we've done a lot of work. We are continuing to look constantly for cost savings opportunities, we're sort of turning over every stone. And so if you look sort of at what to expect for 2024 versus 2023, we expect to continue to see inflationary pressure and increased travel, for example. Occupancy costs tend to go up over time, but we really are working hard to keep expenses this year flat to maybe down a bit.

Speaker 1

So that's what I would expect there. In dollar terms. In dollar terms, right.

Speaker 2

We should get a back This year, we'll come down that one.

Speaker 3

Okay. Terrific color. Thank you. As a follow-up, Peter, I think there's been The positive reaction to the C Corp conversion and the decisive actions you guys took there. So kudos, I think that's shown through in the stock.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think the question that I'm still getting is around kind of the strategic and maybe financial merit as well, the advisor The model with kind of advisory plus asset management. And I appreciate that's been the model. But as you continue to assess, Do you see scenarios where the businesses could be more valuable separated? Are you still evaluating that? I know you said everything was on the table when you started.

Speaker 3

So just would love to get an update on how you're thinking there and is it still TBD or Is this really kind of where we I guess Pete made the decision on kind of the business model being combined? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Well, the way I would put it is, we see significant upside in both sides of the business. And so we're really focused on trying to create more value by executing on those opportunities and that's the immediate task ahead of us. So on advisory, I think we've laid out the path involving a net addition of MDs and also raising productivity. On the Asset Management side of the business, it involves really 2 things.

Speaker 2

1 is optimizing the traditional business by a focus on investment performance and also on upgrading our distribution Team, with the goal of some degree of growth, so because market appreciation at least more than offsets the pressure From fee compression and net outflows given the move to index funds in active management and liquid markets, Combined with, so that's part 1 and then part 2 is pivoting and diversifying the business into less liquid parts of the marketplace, where investors are increasingly allocating their money and we see a significant opportunity for Lazard in that space. And that will be a focus of our inorganic activity going forward, which we're going to do in a disciplined manner. So Coming back to your question, we see significant upside on both sides of the business. We also see opportunities for fully in a fully compliant between the two businesses too. So we are focused on all of that and I think that's the next several years of what we're planning to do.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Hey,

Speaker 3

good morning. Peter, a question on just the restructuring comments you made. You noted you're anticipating higher The longer race certainly bodes well for the liability management business in particular. I was hoping you could just speak to your outlook for the business relative to an active 23% and how it could be impacted if we do begin to see a steady stream of rate cuts beginning in May or June of this year?

Speaker 2

Sure. So what I would say with regard to our business is we started off at least relative to the market slash some of the competition a little bit slower in 2023 in restructuring. But as we approach the end of the year, activity for us picked up significantly. And that's what we're seeing coming into 2024. The team is very active.

Speaker 2

We're really pleased with the new additions, which I think gives us a lot more firepower in the sector. We're also seeing The kind of flywheel effect from the various different things that we're doing. So we just to step back for a second, We have been diversifying the team. Historically, as you know, we were very debt focused. We now have a team that can very ably cover both creditors and debtors.

Speaker 2

We also have been building out our connectivity with private capital. That is important because a lot more of the restructuring and liability management activity is it involves private capital and private equity And there's definitely a feedback loop from our new Lazard Capital Solutions team to restructuring and liability management. Also frankly, our PCA fundraising business, we've got lots of different touch points now with private capital and we're seeing that plays through also. So it looks like for now we're seeing an uptick in overall I think that may well be partly because we've reconfigured our team to be able to cover to be where activity is in a very constructive way. The new additions are welcome.

Speaker 2

And with regard to whether a rate decline will change any of that in 2024. Maybe at the margin, but two things. One is, I think the market may well still be overly optimistic about when the Fed is going to start cutting rates and we can Perhaps go into that if you'd like. But secondly, the rate reductions are going to be gradual. And so I think for a lot of 2024, The type of environment that we're seeing, especially combined with the wall of maturities that are approaching, is going to lead to a lot of restructuring activity.

Speaker 3

That's really helpful, Peter. And just for my follow-up, just a clarifying question around the revenue trajectory. Some of your peers have indicated they expect a slow build in fees in 2024 just given elongated deal and conversion timelines. Wanted to get a sense, just given your strong backlog momentum, the tailwinds you cited in your prepared remarks entering 2024, How we should think about the revenue trajectory over the coming year? And is the expectation it's going to be a little bit more back half loaded just given some of those elongated timelines?

Speaker 2

Well, I've spoken also before about those timelines. It does take time from conversation to announcement to completion. Each of those have variable and sometimes long lags between them. But we're moving through that process. So again, I think we're the market has definitely turned.

Speaker 2

With regard to the kind of within the year, typically, for example, the Q1 is not the strongest quarter of the year and things and often the Q4 is the strongest quarter of the year. So if you just looked at history, I think that would be a reasonable pattern to project. I guess there's nothing we're seeing that suggests that that typical historical pattern is not what to expect also in 2024.

Speaker 3

Helpful color, Peter. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

Speaker 4

Hey, Brandon. Good morning. Thanks for hey, how are you, Peter? Thanks for taking my questions. I'd love to It's very helpful to hear your productivity targets.

Speaker 4

So I'd like to drill down on maybe how to think about MD growth. So you gave some color on hiring and promotes here. Recently, we see that the MB headcount is already down decently from the 1Q level. I know that 10% wasn't about MDs and there's Mary Anne gave some color on the fact that there's still some flow through to happen for headcount. But how should we think about that flow through And the headcount number and then how should we think about also the go forward investing plans And any kind of like annual pace of net adds?

Speaker 2

Sure. So I think maybe as a starting base, You should project forward once we get through the year end process of and And some people will be leaving Lazard actually doing so. You should start off at in Financial Advisory at about 200 Managing Directors and build from there. And I think with regard to the pace in that sort of annual plan, I think you should Obviously, there will be variation from year to year, but we're planning and hoping to come in at around that 10 net add per year, it might be plus or minus a little, but depending on this is a especially on lateral hires, The matching function matters a lot and we want to make sure that we're not just filling a quota on hitting a net out of 10, but rather I'm getting the right people. So sometimes it will be more than that, sometimes it will be less than that, but I don't think the variation will be that significant Per

Speaker 4

year. Okay, great. Great. Yes, of course. But it will be around, but that's Yes, around.

Speaker 2

Yes, Helpful to get a rough idea.

Speaker 4

I would love to drill down on expenses because given your efficiency efforts and some of the moving pieces here this year, how should we think about the fixed expense base Going forward, what kind of a delta versus where you were in 2023? And how much sort of most importantly really, how much of these changes increased your level of operating leverage to an environment that seems to be improving?

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'll start and then maybe Mary Anne We'll come in. Let's separate them into the fixed costs into 2 components. In the non comp category, I think you should think about Non comp being roughly flat in dollar terms, just coming back to some of the earlier commentary. That's a combination of some things that will Respond to a stronger market, travel and entertainment is a good example.

Speaker 2

And other things where we think we could have some reductions in 2024, professional services is a good example in that category. And then In the comp line, you should expect that fixed costs will go down as a result of the as the headcount reductions materialize And then clearly the bonuses component will depend on how the businesses perform throughout the year. And Mary Anne will fill in a little bit more detail perhaps, but The most important point is everything we're doing here is to make Lazard more efficient and to put us on the path to raising productivity because that is the way to get operating leverage and we are pleased with the progress that we're

Speaker 1

Yes, I'll just add a couple of things to that. And really focusing on the fixed portion of compensation costs, which you've got a couple of different components in there, right? So you've got salaries, which we will expect to come down sort of as we see the effects of the headcount reductions come through. You've got benefits, which for us are higher than most companies because of our presence in Europe, benefits and social charges and so and those tend to vary with cash bonuses. So there's some unpredictability there, but generally tend to go up over time.

Speaker 1

And then you've got amortization of prior year awards, which as awards have gone up in the past that we see the effects of those in future years, as you know. And the other element that is sort of impacting this year in particular is we've got a couple of pretty productive people who are becoming retirement eligible. And so you recognize their entire award in the year of the grant essentially because they've earned the whole thing and don't have to stage of the service period.

Speaker 4

Got it. And just sorry, Mary Anne,

Speaker 2

just to clarify that comment on

Speaker 4

the retirement eligible. Those are new folks who are retirement eligible this year, so a delta versus what the impact was in prior year?

Speaker 2

That's right. That's right.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thanks for all

Speaker 3

that color. Really appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Just maybe on you noted Peter, that Europe was particularly strong this year. Can you talk about your outlook on Europe? How much of that strength was just your push for productivity and collaboration versus the environment and how you're thinking about that in 2024?

Speaker 2

Sure. So look, we have New co heads of Europe on the advisory side, which is fantastic. That's I think if you go back over Lazard's history, one of the Questions always was the degree to which Europe was integrated. We're there. The coeds are off to a great start.

Speaker 2

And I think we expect more to come from that structure as we move forward through time. With regard to The market, we're still seeing significant activity in M and A and in restructuring out of Europe. It may well be that part of the reason for that is that the macroeconomic environment is a bit more challenging in Europe than in the U. S, especially in Germany specifically, but across the continent and to some degree in the UK. And so as companies see that more challenging domestic market, they are looking for top line growth through inorganic options, including in other geographies and that plays to our strength.

Speaker 2

I'd highlight again that among the independent firms, we really are the only one that has a strong presence in both North America and Europe. So to the extent that European firms are looking for North American targets, that's a natural fit with Lazard.

Speaker 5

Right, makes sense. And then just maybe on the margin targets, you talked about getting activity for MD up to $8,500,000 by 2025. Is that kind of the bogey you need to get to the 20% margin and comp ratio targets? Or Just trying to triangulate what normalized to you would mean for those targets?

Speaker 2

I think there are lots of ways of hitting the normalized targets, but the plan all fits together and so we are aiming to accomplish All of the things that we've set out, productivity targets, obviously, make it easier to hit the margin targets. But I wouldn't say it's not a necessary condition, it may be partially sufficient, but it's not necessary. But we're planning on doing all of the above, so hitting the expansion in the number of MDs, the increase in productivity, which then helps to finance increase in the number of MDs and be very attentive to our comp and non comp expense ratios as the market normalizes.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Yaro with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to touch on the asset management business and get your expectations for flows and the fee rate in that business over 2024 and maybe into 2025?

Speaker 2

I'll let Evan take that.

Speaker 6

Sure. Hi, James, it's Devin.

Speaker 2

So, yes, look, I think flows, as

Speaker 6

we talked about in the previous quarters, we expected that flows will be coming more balanced overall for us. Net flows In 2023, we're significantly better than in previous years despite some of the headwinds that we've all seen in the market. We expect it to be choppy, continue to be choppy month to month, As you know, based on our business and certainly the first half of this year, a lot of that is driven by the fact that you still have a lot of money sitting on the sidelines moved into money market, short duration type instruments based on the higher yields that people are getting. So there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines that's drawing capital away from risk assets and putting new money to work. So it's a little bit less conviction that we saw.

Speaker 6

And I think that the market saw generally in Q4 and into the beginning of this year putting new money to work. So as that starts to come off the sidelines, which we expect to happen over the coming quarters ahead, we expect that to be a positive movement for us. We're seeing significantly, as Peter called out in the script, we're seeing growing interest in many of our global strategies, The quantitative platform and selectively in fixed income, I'd probably say it's a little bit earlier for us in the emerging markets as part of the cycle. I think investors Still, as we said, sitting a little bit on the sidelines waiting for that opportune moment, waiting for the right timing to go back and reallocate into EM. As you know, last Probably 5 or 10 years, people started taking allocations down.

Speaker 6

So we see that as a potential growth option. And we're definitely having more conversations with clients and allocators about the right timing of that transition back into that space. And that would obviously be a positive process as well, but I would expect that to be playing out right over the next 12 to 18 months. But overall, I think that's the strategy that we would see continuing to work in. I think from a performance perspective, We've had a significant performance across the portfolios with significant strength in many of those areas that I called out, Global EM, the quantitative platform.

Speaker 6

And so as markets broaden out from what we saw in the past year, as we all know, The return performance beyond just 7 stocks, I think this move more towards fundamentally driven markets certainly will play to our strengths, and we're already seeing that in the performance that we've had in the emerging markets and many of our international strategies. Okay, thanks.

Speaker 5

That was very helpful. Just one other one, which is on your buyback. I think the size of the buyback was a positive surprise in the quarter in my opinion. Maybe you could just your updated thoughts on capital return priorities from here?

Speaker 2

I'll start and then Mary Anne can come in. Look, moving forward, As I've said before, well, first to start with, we have 2 very cash generative businesses as markets normalize. And As we move forward in time, we are going to be putting an increased emphasis on using that cash flow for the inorganic opportunities that we see in asset management, obviously beyond the dividend. And so I would highlight, for example, we have a new Head of Corp Dev, who is starting in the next 2 or 3 weeks as we add additional capabilities to explore inorganic opportunities that we see On this pivot and diversification of the asset management business, we are going to approach that in a very disciplined manner and obviously weigh That use of cash and that use of capital against other potential uses including buybacks and delivery.

Speaker 1

So a couple of points. James, just to clarify, my comments on the buybacks were for the full And we did buybacks in the Q1 primarily, but not this quarter. So just to make sure that's clear. And then On the pace of buybacks going forward, as Peter just said, that's one of the uses of our excess cash and we certainly plan to offset dilution from stock over time. I would just sort of note that the pace may be a bit uneven based on other opportunities that we have.

Speaker 1

So It's not great for modeling, but I would expect to offset, but not necessarily immediately or as quickly as we have in the past.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question will come from Mike Brown with KBW. Please go ahead. Peter,

Speaker 7

you mentioned But just wanted to hear a little bit more about that. What could acquisitions look like there? It sounds like it's early days. You mentioned that you just hired someone

Speaker 2

on kind of a core

Speaker 7

dev side of the business, but how do you think about bringing on the right assets to scale on the Lazard platform, while also paying the right price or can be accretive just given the valuations in the space are certainly high in the private market side?

Speaker 2

Yes. So here's the way I would look I would sort of phrase that. We're acting with urgency, but also discipline focused on Obviously, trying to find the right fit, not just making an acquisition for the sake of making one. I'd highlight not just price, but cultural fit as being extremely important to making sure that the inorganic strategy and the programmatic M and A is a success over time. We're particularly focused on private asset managers with some degree of established track record that are still relatively early in their AUM progression, where they could benefit from our prestigious brand and our distribution network, global distribution network.

Speaker 2

And we benefit from their diversification of offerings and performance. And we see a lot of opportunity to acquire firms of this size and at the stage as they may be too small to move the needle at the very large alternative asset managers and too large to integrate into firms much smaller than we are. So there's a sweet spot for us and we're going to again act with urgency, but also take appropriate care to find the right match because we are fully cognizant of the risk of deals gone astray or integration that doesn't work. So you should expect again, I used the word programmatic on purpose. We are going to do this over time and we're going to wait to make sure we get the right match, but as soon as we see the right match, we are going to act decisively.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you for that. And just maybe one kind of follow-up on the advisory side of the business. You had mentioned in your prepared remarks that the private equity side is getting more active. What is that starting to look like at this stage?

Speaker 7

Is it still More about kind of the dialogues? Are you starting to see things kind of falling into place? And if you think about historically, What would be the final hurdles here that would need to get that cohort to become more active?

Speaker 2

Let me say a couple of things. First, outside of M and A, we have lots of business with Private Capital Alternative Asset Managers, that's our those are capital solutions practice in the private credit and other fundraising vectors in our restructuring and liability management practice, in our PCA, our fundraising business, which Add a lot of activity, especially in the secondaries component of its business last year and that continues into this year. And then to the heart of your question, we are just seeing, I think, after a period of time in which Private Equity was trying to was a little bit on the sidelines with regard to especially sell sides. Their core business model is being transactional coming back online. I don't so I think it's just it was a matter of time.

Speaker 2

All coming back online. I don't so I think it's just it was a matter of time, and we're seeing that in our dialogues. I think it's also apparent the commentary from some of the leaders of the biggest alternative asset managers that they're coming back. I think I said coming back on the field and that's the way I would describe it. So the level of activity is not what it was yet in 2021.

Speaker 2

It's clear also that Our dialogue with strategic started to get more serious earlier than with private equity, but that is now we are And we're seeing a lot of dialogue with private equity around M and A specifically in addition to the other ways in which we interact with them.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Will now turn the call back to Peter Orszag for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Look, thank you for joining. I would just say One thing in closing, which is it's been about 4 months since taking over the role of CEO and I've been very actively meeting with our clients and our own employees and colleagues and shareholders. And the results of all of that is that my Conviction about the path that we're on has only increased. It is remarkable to interact with clients who are On an unsolicited basis, very complementary of the work that we do. And most importantly, this organization is united in its ambition to aim higher and achieve our Lazard 2,030 goal.

Speaker 2

So more to come and thank you for joining us.

Operator

This does conclude today's Lazard 4th quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. You may disconnect your line at this time

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Lazard Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads