NASDAQ:DNUT Krispy Kreme Q4 2023 Earnings Report $4.01 -0.27 (-6.19%) As of 03:46 PM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast Krispy Kreme EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.09Consensus EPS $0.13Beat/MissMissed by -$0.04One Year Ago EPS$0.11Krispy Kreme Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$450.90 millionExpected Revenue$438.95 millionBeat/MissBeat by +$11.95 millionYoY Revenue Growth+11.40%Krispy Kreme Announcement DetailsQuarterQ4 2023Date2/13/2024TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateTuesday, February 13, 2024Conference Call Time8:30AM ETUpcoming EarningsKrispy Kreme's Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Thursday, May 8, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 8:30 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Q1 2025 Earnings ReportConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Annual Report (10-K)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Krispy Kreme Q4 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 13, 2024 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by. My name is Mandeep, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Krispy Kreme 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. All lines are being placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Operator00:00:29I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Stephanie Dacus, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Dacus, please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:44Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Krispy Kreme's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Thank you for joining us today. Our earnings release and associated earnings presentation, which we will be referencing during the call, are available on our Investor Relations website investors. Crispycream.com. Speaker 100:01:05Joining me on the call this morning are Josh Charlesworth, Chief Executive Officer and Jeremiah Ashukian, Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call contains forward looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements of expectations, future events or future financial performance. Forward looking statements involve a number of inherent risks and uncertainties, and we caution investors that these risks could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward looking statements. These factors and other risks and uncertainties are described in detail in the company's Form 10 ks filed with the SEC for the year ended January 1, 2023, and in the other filings we make from time to time with the SEC. Speaker 100:02:01Forward looking statements made today are only as of today. The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements except as may be required by law. Additionally, today's call will include certain non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between non GAAP financial measures and our and is also available at our investors. Crispykreme.com website. Speaker 100:02:35With that, I'll turn the call over to Josh. Speaker 200:02:38Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm so excited for what is ahead of us at Krispy Kreme. Our strategy is clear to make our fresh donuts available in more places and keep reminding people of the joy that is Krispy Kreme, not just to eat, but to share and give to others. We make great progress on this in 2023 with strong consumer demand and increased access to our fresh donuts in both existing and new markets around the world. We also improved profitability as we grew, demonstrating the productivity benefits of our unique hub and spoke operating model. Speaker 200:03:16As we move forward in 2024, We will continue to offer new and exciting specialty premium donuts, upgrade our digital commerce capabilities and expand the availability of our doughnuts around the world, including in our newer sales channels like club stores and quick service restaurants. We will also increase our efforts to modernize the making and moving of doughnuts to ensure we deliver high quality profitable growth. Let me summarize today's key messages. We continued to deliver double digit organic revenue growth with all markets and channels growing sales. We expanded profit margins by leveraging existing production hubs to support our growth, especially in the U. Speaker 200:04:04S. Where operating leverage was strongest. Our ongoing strategy is to scale the business efficiently by adding more fresh points of access. There are now more than 14,100 places where you can buy our melt in your mouth fresh donuts in 39 countries. Our focus on operating excellence means that we're building both a bigger and better Krispy Kreme business. Speaker 200:04:31And finally, we are introducing our 2024 outlook with organic growth expected to translate into adjusted EBITDA expansion, reflecting our intent to drive increasingly profitable growth. We delivered 13.2% organic revenue growth in the 4th quarter, ahead of our guide and 12.2 percent organic revenue growth for the full year. This performance reflected strong consumer demand With people choosing to celebrate Halloween, Thanksgiving and the holiday season with premiums priced specialty doughnuts from Krispy Kreme, including a Scooby Doo Doozen and our first ever e. L. F. Speaker 200:05:12Donut collection celebrating the 20th anniversary of the family favorite holiday movie. Tie ins like this helped create tremendous excitement for the brand in 2023, and we finished the year with over 40,000,000,000 media impressions, Reflecting how well Krispy Kreme's fresh and innovative donuts resonated with the consumer, e commerce also continues to play a bigger role within our business, growing over 25% in the 4th quarter, driven by new loyalty members, which now total over €15,000,000 as well as operational improvements to our website, app and in shop availability. Organic growth was also driven by adding new points of access, which increased by 743, a much stronger 4th quarter expansion than in prior years, reflecting the growing demand from existing and new partners who want to make everybody's favorite Fresh doughnuts available to their customers. The same goes for new countries with Krispy Kreme opening in Ecuador and France in the 4th quarter to add to Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Switzerland, Chile and Costa Rica, which were all added earlier in the year. The continued expansion of our hub and spoke model delivered productivity growth and increased profitability in the 4th quarter With adjusted EBITDA margin improving 40 basis points to 14.2%. Speaker 200:06:39The hub and spoke model is becoming more productive as we add more points of access without adding significantly more production hubs. We ended 2023 with 2,300 more points of access than in 2022, mostly through deliver fresh daily displays in grocery and convenience stores. And we did this was adding net one production hub. The resulting increased utilization of our production hubs, most of which can still make twice as many donuts as they do today, made them more efficient and profitable. We also completed the optimization of our production hubs without spokes in 2023, closing legacy donut shops, which were not well suited to the strategy. Speaker 200:07:25Our 4th quarter and full year results exemplify the success and power of our hub and spoke model. And in 2024, I look forward to us becoming a bigger and better Krispy Kreme by continuously improving our business operations as we grow. And the number one reason why someone may not buy a Krispy Kreme donut continues to be access and convenience. With more than 2,000,000 locations where we could in theory sell Krispy Kreme, at least in the markets we've targeted, the opportunity to expand availability is big. We have previously shared our long term goal of opening at least 75,000 points of access around the world, yet this still represents less than 3% of total addressable market. Speaker 200:08:07And we are adding new customers all the time, such as Costco and international markets McDonald's in the U. S. Where we have been conducting an extended test in Kentucky for much of 2023. Our relationship with McDonald's remains strong with discussions ongoing about further expansion and we look forward to providing updates On our quick service restaurant plans through 2024, we also expect to launch Krispy Kreme in 3 to 5 new countries in 2024 With several priority markets identified in Europe, as well as Brazil, where we just announced an exciting new partnership with the convenience store chain AMPM. We have perfected the art of making our original glazed doughnut over the last 87 years and bringing joy to our consumers across the world. Speaker 200:08:55Yet, there remains the opportunity to modernize the way we make and move our doughnuts, bringing efficiency to the process whilst maintaining consistent high quality and service levels. We have started 2024 by making changes to our global leadership team to reflect these In Angelo Joachim, we are adding a new Chief Information Officer with deep digital technology experience across multiple industries. Our Global Supply Chain Leader, Sharif Riyadh, formerly of Mondelez has stepped into the team as has our U. S. Business leader, Javier Rancano, who has extensive QSR operations experience. Speaker 200:09:34As a leadership team, we are focused on quality fresh doughnuts in every channel every day, expanding the use of automated donut making and processing and continuously improving our donut delivery capabilities as we support more and more points of access. An example of this is a pilot we are just starting on select routes in LA and DC to deliver our fresh donuts through a third party logistics provider still using dedicated Krispy Kreme trucks and drivers. As we focus on our core strategy of producing, selling and distributing fresh donuts daily, we continue our strategic review of Insomnia Cookies. With that, I will turn it over to Jeremiah to give further insight on our financial performance and provide an outlook for 2024. Speaker 300:10:21Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. As Josh mentioned, we reported strong double digit 4th quarter organic growth improved profitability for the year demonstrating the productivity benefits of our hub and spoke model. In the 4th quarter, we grew double digit on both Top and bottom line on a percentage basis, resulting in adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 40 basis points year over year to 14.2%. We saw growth in all our markets driven by high impact global brand activations and seasonal offerings, increased points of access and premiumization efforts. Adjusted EBITDA grew 14.7 percent outpacing our revenue growth for the 2nd consecutive quarter as we continue to realize cost efficiencies across the global business through both productivity efforts, increased utilization of our hubs. Speaker 300:11:09For the full year, the business performed largely in line with expectations as we delivered 12.2 percent organic growth, increased adjusted EBITDA by 11% and expanded margins. Organic growth accelerated to 13.2% in the 4th quarter. Notably, we saw growth across all our segments in 2023 on top of strong performance in 2022. In the U. S. Speaker 300:11:32Segment, organic revenue grew 13.7% in the 4th quarter, driven by record holiday season, specialty doughnut offerings drove incremental sales through all channels, especially DFT and had positive impact on our sales. We also observed increased transaction values due to growth of our e commerce channel. All of this was underpinned by our strategy of growing points of access, which grew 17.7% year over year with more than 300 DFT doors added in Q4 versus Q3 and over 1,000 doors added versus 2022. At Insomnia Cookies, we observed strong organic growth of 16.3% as well as sequential margin improvement from Q3. That said, margins in the business remain pressured given the elevated cost of Cocoa. Speaker 300:12:19The hub and spoke model first established in the U. K. And Australia is now well underway in the U. S. With several cities seeing marked improvements in profitability during the year as we added more points of access to the existing hubs. Speaker 300:12:31This as well as our ability to leverage pricing to offset inflation explains The increase in sales per hub of 8.9% year over year and the subsequent 120 basis point adjusted EBITDA margin improvement for the year. In the International segment, organic revenue grew 9% year over year as we expanded points of access and leveraged global campaigns over the holiday season to drive volume of our specialty donuts. Most notably, we executed our e. L. F. Speaker 300:12:57Specialty donuts in 9 markets worldwide, leveraging a single set of marketing materials, seeing great results in Mexico and the U. K. Mexico was a substantial contributor to growth this quarter. We have nearly doubled points of access in Mexico through existing partners such as OXXO with meaningful room to continue expanding in the country. We also saw successful growth in new partners such as Costco in Australia, which continues to prove to be an efficient customer. Speaker 300:13:26Adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially in the quarter to 20.6 percent with margin expansion in both Australia and Mexico. Profitability continues to be pressured in the U. K. And we're taking actions to improve productivity. In the Market Development segment, Organic revenue grew 19.2% in the 4th quarter as we continue our international expansion by opening 126 more points of access through a combination of theaters, Fresh shops and DFD doors. Speaker 300:13:55We opened in 2 new markets, Ecuador and France, and expect that these two countries alone can support more than 2,000 further points of access. Most notably, Paris represented a record breaking launch in the 4th quarter. This shop was our best performing shop worldwide on a sales basis in December. Market Development adjusted EBITDA grew 21.1% in the 4th quarter with margins expanding by 120 basis points to 35.4%. Margin improvements were primarily driven by continued hub and spoke efficiencies in our equity owned Japanese and Canadian markets. Speaker 300:14:29As we continue to expand globally, we expect to see high returns in international franchises. The JV structure of the French market is a prime example of our capital light model approach, which enables earnings flow throughout significant margins We're providing the option to take equity ownership of the market in the future. As you heard from Josh earlier, we announced our future entry into Brazil using a similar approach. For the year ending 2023, we delivered $0.27 in adjusted earnings per share driven by improvements in adjusted EBITDA that were offset by higher than expected depreciation and amortization as we continue to accelerate both domestically and globally at Insomnia Cookies and made choice for investments in anticipation of accelerated growth in the U. S. Speaker 300:15:14DFT business. We also saw increased annual interest expense as a result of the higher interest rate environment. As a result, we saw adjusted diluted earnings per share finish lower than our original Our business fundamentals remain strong and we are confident in our ability to grow EPS despite remaining in the somewhat higher interest rate environment in 2024. As mentioned on previous calls, in 2023, we deployed some of our operating cash flow to strategically reduce our use of vendor financing, which had an impact On net cash from operations, over the year, we reduced vendor financing by roughly $82,000,000 which will provide a long term tailwind of $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 on an annualized basis to adjusted EBITDA beginning in mid-twenty 24. Despite these efforts, are able to hold leverage flat through 2023 finishing the year at 4.1 times. Speaker 300:16:05We have a healthy balance sheet having our maturities to 2028 in the Q1 of 2023. We closed the year with just under $40,000,000 in cash and have access to ample liquidity through our revolver with an undrawn capacity of $159,000,000 We remain focused on the long term health of the business and setting up our capital structure to support growth through a strong balance sheet. We expect to delever in 2024 primarily through the growth of adjusted EBITDA and running the business with an eye towards efficiency and capital expenditures as well as managing working capital. Over the long term, we remain on track to be between 2.0x2.5x net leverage in 2026. As we look forward to 2024, we're providing our outlook for the full year, which assumes a nominal impact from foreign exchange and contemplates all operations including Insomnia Cookies. Speaker 300:16:58For the full year 2024, we expect to deliver net revenue growth of 5% to 7%, organic revenue growth of 6% to 8%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 11% and adjusted diluted earnings per share of between $0.27 and $0.31 After reporting strong double digit 4th quarter and full year organic growth in excess of our full year guide, we remain confident in our 2024 guidance and our ability to drive operating leverage as we become more coordinated as a global company. We believe we are well positioned for sustainable high quality growth in the years to come, leveraging the tools which helped us deliver a great finish to the year in 2023. As it relates to the Q1, Despite the harsh weather in broad parts of the U. S. In January and lapping record breaking sales in the Q1 of 2023, we expect net revenue growth of 2% to 4%. Speaker 300:17:54We also expect adjusted EBITDA to grow in line with revenue growth. We will closely monitor and adapt to changes in the market consumer environment and I remain confident about the profitable growth potential of our business in 2024 and we're excited for a great year to come. With that, I'll turn it over to Josh for his closing remarks. Speaker 200:18:13Thanks, Jeremiah. In summary, we are expanding availability by adding high quality productive points of access, driving operating leverage through the efficiency of our operating model and maximizing capital return both by leveraging existing capacity and making selective investments in geographies, which have limited access to Krispy Kreme today. All in, I look forward to us building a bigger and better Krispy Kreme in the years ahead. Operator, Let's now open it up to Q and A, please. Operator00:18:47The floor is now open for your questions. Our first question comes from the line of Sara Senatore with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Speaker 400:19:14Hi, good morning. This is Jessica Osuafari on for Sarah Sanitore. Thank you. So for last quarter, you said you were in advanced discussions about expanding the McDonald's partnership and we're making investments in the U. S. Speaker 400:19:26But it looks like the 100 and So, and I know that the press release alluded to more growth in the quick service restaurant channel, but I wanted to see if there's any more color you could provide on that agreement. And I do have a couple more questions, but I think I can ask them one at a time. Speaker 200:19:46Sure. Good morning, Jessica. Yes, obviously, word is out on the success of our delivered fresh daily donut program. Several customer opportunities in existing and new channels around the world. Regarding quick service restaurants in the U. Speaker 200:20:02S, Our focus does continue to be on McDonald's. Discussions are ongoing and productive about an expanded partnership, And we'll provide an update on that one when we have it. Speaker 400:20:15Okay. All right. Speaker 200:20:15What was your second question? Speaker 400:20:18So in the U. S. And international markets, revenue growth was slightly less on points of access growth. I know you think in terms of growth in sales per hub, but as we try to forecast sales going forward, how should we think about new points of access? Is it fair to assume that they'll have lower volumes than the existing base of points of access? Speaker 400:20:36And if so, is that driven by the type of store and will that change if you accelerate expansion into the quick service industry? Speaker 200:20:44Well, it's interesting. Obviously, the 3 international markets there, U. K, Australia and Mexico all in Different situations, the UK, Australia much more developed in the grocery store customer mix. Mexico really, really starting out with a big opportunity in convenience stores. So you get a constant Mix effect there. Speaker 200:21:12Underlying performance is good, but you're going to get these mix effects For the forecasting, especially in Mexico with the big opportunity with the OXXO convenience store chain. Speaker 400:21:27Okay. Thank you. And could you remind us how much of your commodity basket you have locked in? Speaker 300:21:36Yes, I can take that, Jessica. And we started to put on cover on commodities earlier in 2023. We do expect to see mid- to high single digit inflation overall for 2024. Most of our commodities are now covered. So about 75% of them are covered of the commodities that we actually can cover, as it made sense for us from a pricing perspective or just a security of supply perspective. Speaker 300:22:03It's a bit of a mixed bag within that kind of high single digit mid to high single digit inflation number Amongst our cost structure, as we're forecasting inflation in excess of 20% on things like sugar, where the market remains around 10 year highs and low double digit inflation on things like cartons, which is a commodity we can hedge, but we do expect to see some deflation on key commodities like wheat and edible oils. I think it's important to note out just outside of commodities from a labor perspective, we do believe that we'll be subject to the wage increases in California. And as a result, we continue to expect to see high single digit to low double digit inflation on labor in 2024. Speaker 400:22:41Okay. All right. Thank you so much for your time. Speaker 200:22:44Thank you. Operator00:22:47Our next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Speaker 500:22:54Hey, team. This is Luke Job on for John Ivenco. Just wondering if you could give some language around specific changes to kind of the current process or model that we're focused on with specification to modernization of the doughnut making process and kind of especially delivery within that? Thanks. Speaker 200:23:16Sure. Thanks, Luke. I'll take that. Yes, you picked up on our efforts to modernize the way we make and move our doughnuts. That goes all the way from the sort of digitization of the process through to the automation of the doughnut making itself And then all the way on to upscaling our donut transportation, all in we're working to ensure the freshest donuts every time, delivered as efficiently as possible. Speaker 200:23:47We've shared before the automation efforts. We have A line running in New York, which is now automatically filling, topping And even packing the doughnuts, we're looking to perfect that and then roll it out in as time goes on. And then regarding the logistics in particular, the rapid expansion of DFD means that we're becoming more logistics becoming more and more important. So we announced on today's call that we have a pilot covering select routes in D. C. Speaker 200:24:30And L. A. And that's expected to take about 4 to 6 months. And the purpose of that To work with the 3rd party providers to see if we can maintain quality and service whilst being able to access new capabilities that they can bring and over time improve our operations and indeed bring more efficiency. So it's an effort end to end to continuously improve donut making and moving, and we'll provide updates as we learn more. Speaker 500:25:00Great. Thanks. Speaker 200:25:02Our Operator00:25:05next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist. Please go ahead. Speaker 600:25:13Hi, good morning. This is Davis Holcomb on for Bill Schappell. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to know, we saw that your guidance this year for fiscal year 2024 includes operations from Insomnia Cookies, but we're I wanted to know if you could provide a little bit of color on what the sales guide would be without the inclusion of Insomnia Cookies? Speaker 300:25:36Yes. I mean, number 1, we're pleased with the performance of Insomnia as the business continues to grow profitably and improve sequentially in terms of EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA improvement. We opened a record number of cookie bakeries in 2023. We also talked about the growth rate at insomnia at 16.3% on the earnings call as well. There continues to be lots of Opportunity on this business to expand both the U. Speaker 300:26:03S. Internationally, we do expect it to continue to grow double digit in 2024. But just given the fact that we're in the process, as we said in Q3, we're conducting a strategic review and look forward to sharing more news about it that we can. I think in the last earnings call, I did let everybody know that we operate or the impact on Insomnia would have a roughly 100 to 200 basis point impact on the top line though. Speaker 600:26:31Excellent. Thanks for the color. I'll pass it on. Operator00:26:38Our next question comes from the line of Ashley Groeninger with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:26:46Hey, good morning. So CapEx came in as a percent of revenue for 2023 at 7.2%. And the new 2024 outlook, You're targeting 7 to 8. We're just wondering how concrete of a number that is. Does that include any incremental investments you would need to make if, let's say, a QSR partnership was to come to fruition in 2024? Speaker 200:27:11Yes. Good morning, Aisling. Our confidence in the DFD opportunity around the world and especially in the U. S. Including QSR in such that we have thoughtfully started making additional investments in manufacturing capacity to support it. Speaker 200:27:30For example, we've secured new sites in Miami, Twin Cities and LA, all conversions of existing buildings looking to accelerate Times are opening to keep up with demand. To clarify though, the investments we're making, they're in broad support of the expansion DFD overall. So they're not dependent specifically, for example, on McDonald's, but their investments that we very much believe make a lot of sense for our business going forward in terms of bringing Krispy Kreme to more people in those new channels. Speaker 700:28:08Great. Thanks for that. My second question is on, I think we touched on this before, but it's in Slide 18 of your presentation. It's about average revenue per door per week for international. Just what's the dynamics behind it's been the decrease year over year? Speaker 700:28:25Is it just opening these DFD doors in less prime locations than the earlier locations? Or just any color would help. Thanks. Speaker 300:28:33Yes. It's a great question. APDs internationally were impacted in 2,002 by the U. K. Regulations that were put in place called HFSS, which required us to move where the locations were in the stores, which had an immediate step down in terms of productivity. Speaker 300:28:51Moving forward, the APD per door has been impacted by adding more convenience type locations, which Josh mentioned, around places like OXXO in Mexico, which on average is smaller footprint, which could be a lower kind of dollar per door. So overall, kind of the effect there will have a pull on. We believe the APD will remain fairly flattish internationally kind of moving forward. Speaker 200:29:16It's worth clarifying on the U. S. Because actually interesting with APDs growing strongly, We're seeing that we're actually bringing on even more productive new customers and locations showing that there's a lot of white space opportunity in the U. S. It's interesting international. Speaker 200:29:40Mexico, an example where we are leading on convenience store. In the U. S. Is a lot of grocery stores, Mass club stores, for example, big opportunities there. So the APD will evolve over time with different types of customers, But all in, we're seeing continuously productive doors, ones that support our margin expansion plans. Speaker 700:30:06Great. Thank you so much for that. I'll pass it back. Speaker 400:30:09Thank Speaker 800:30:33Hey, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Just going back to the U. S. Expansion of hubs, You mentioned Minnesota, California, Florida, and I think New England and Upstate New York were also opportunities. Speaker 800:30:47So just thinking through kind of those, are there certain you see as priorities right now? And are there certain markets that you need to get open before doing like a national QSR rollout? Speaker 200:31:01Well, you know, a good QSR rollout with a customer like, for example, McDonald's, 13,000, 14,000 restaurants in the U. S, we could cover about 6,000 restaurants just with our existing network. So your question goes to the 7000 or 8000 assuming you're taking McDonald's as the benchmark that we would need to cover In areas where mostly it's those areas you described in the country where Krispy Kreme isn't today. Our plans are anyway over time to open up in those places and reference to either Miami, LA, New England, all the ones you referenced, Upstate New York, they're all in our plants. Naturally, those that we have already maxed out capacity or we've identified sites are the ones we're prioritizing in the short term. Speaker 200:31:56But they all make sense for us. So we're actually looking across the country in all those locations as we build out our plans for DFD and QSR in the future. Speaker 800:32:11Great. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up to that, it's kind of like a modeling question just around the CapEx spend. So the 7% to 8% of revenue guidance for 2024, just thinking about the expansion and I think you had said $3,000,000 to $6,000,000 for some of those hubs. Is there a cadence we should be thinking about quarter to quarter for the year? Speaker 800:32:31Is it going to be pretty evenly spread throughout? Or should it be back weighted? Just Trying Speaker 700:32:37to get some help there. Thank you. Speaker 200:32:41On the CapEx, I mean, the hubs themselves are coming online, probably a little more back weighted. Yes. The CapEx itself though phases differently, doesn't it, Jeremiah? Speaker 300:32:50Yes. I mean, there's a cash flow from CapEx that will happen here, because we've spent or at least, decided to deploy capital last year in an effort to get some of these up and running earlier in the year. From a modeling perspective, I mean, for the most part, we will follow a fairly uniform spend of CapEx throughout the year, as we have in previous years. So it's a fairly consistent number when you think about a percent of of revenue that will balance between 7% 8% for the quarters. It will just balance up and down between those numbers more or less. Speaker 800:33:30Okay. Thank you. Operator00:33:35Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Wolf with C. L. King. Please go ahead. Speaker 900:33:44Thanks. Good morning. First, I wanted to ask about The Q1 sales being low trend and tie that to the year because obviously You're looking for a big rebound to more like 6% to 8% to get to the 5% to 7% for the year for the Q2 through Q4, Little more in line with what we were I think Street was expecting. Speaker 400:34:10So could you just kind of Speaker 900:34:11flesh out a little bit what you're seeing in the quarter? How much you think is Pure weather, is there anything else going on? Do you have sort of non weather impact in markets either in the U. S. Or Canada or Even the other segments that sort of point to sort of some more normalized growth supporting the rebound for the rest of the year? Speaker 300:34:31Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I can take that. I think I'll probably start off by just saying we're actually pleased with the fact that we'll continue To post growth in Q1 after a record Q1 in 2023 and 14 consecutive quarters of organic growth, the last time we didn't grow in a quarter during COVID and as a result of some of the U. K. Speaker 300:34:51Shutdown or slowdown. Organic growth in the quarter is actually close to 3% to 6%, Given we'll be lapping the discontinuation of BST, as you mentioned, like many others, we saw harsh weather in broad parts of the U. S. In January leading to lower revenues and a softer start to the year, which also comes up against the comp of 14.4% last year, but also a couple of one offs to your point. 1, at Insomnia Cookies, we have a lap against extended delivery zones that will be in our base, which provided some tailwind last year. Speaker 300:35:23And then 2, in market development, we had a one off shift in the timing of some equipment sales in our market development franchise business, which resulted in a higher sales being recognized in 1Q last year. That said, we're excited for Valentine's Day tomorrow, which is one of our biggest sales days of the year, Not to mention other key specialty donut offerings over the course of the year. We're definitely committed to disciplined growth in pursuit of the full year guide that I laid out. And we will, when you think about from a cadence point of view, lap some other things as we get into Q2 that may go the other way, most notably the NCR outage that we had in the U. S. Speaker 300:35:58In Q2 twenty which will help us kind of recover back in Q2. Speaker 200:36:02Yes. The only thing I'll add is we're looking forward to Quality sustained growth through 2024. And Q4 showed once again that the consumer just loves our doughnuts, especially for sharing and gifting at special occasions and celebrations like Valentine's that Jeremiah mentioned, even when priced at a premium. And we see that in all sales channels with really quite phenomenal growth recently in in e commerce in particular. So our consumer is engaging with the brand more than ever. Speaker 200:36:35And that's the key backdrop to understanding Krispy Kreme. Speaker 400:36:43Okay. And if Speaker 900:36:44I can just add another Follow-up just related also to sales. And I assume for the year, you only have the 160 or so McDonald's stores in there. But I guess for the U. S. Specifically, is there any less of A push on sales in any way, whether it's not putting up stores, you might have put hubs that you might have put up Because you're deferring and is there any impact on what's in the guidance because you're kind of throttling any part of the U. Speaker 900:37:20S. Operations back in anticipation of either McDonald's or another QSR? Speaker 200:37:28There's no throttling back. It's absolutely the case that the DFD continues to be a core driver of our growth. Indeed, as I mentioned a moment ago, the Q4 addition of doors around the world included the U. S. At a time which has traditionally been problematic for our customers, they want to put in other seasonal items. Speaker 200:37:54This year, want to put in our items and prioritize listing new doors for Krispy Kreme. So definitely no throttling back. At the same time, We are very focused on improving the quality of our operations, ensuring high quality sustainable growth, Working as I mentioned on making moving donuts and continuously better ways. So that naturally means we're very thoughtful As we grow to make sure we have the best points of access, strong hubs, making sure they're set up for future Growth, as also mentioned, with many of the donut shops still heavily underutilized, they're able to make More than twice the amount of doughnuts that they do today, most of those lines, getting ready for growth with QSR and other new channels is an effort is a lift. And so we're making sure that everywhere we grow, it's in a way that ensures high quality Donuts presented freshly consumer in every channel, whilst maintaining productivity and efficiency. Speaker 200:39:00So Yes, we're certainly working hard on the system, but we're not as such throttling back. Speaker 900:39:10Thank you. That's a really helpful color. I'll pass it on. Thank you. Speaker 200:39:14You bet. Thanks, Andrew. Operator00:39:18I would now like to turn the call over to Josh Charlesworth for closing remarks. Speaker 200:39:24Well, thank you everybody. Thank you for your interest in Krispy Kreme today. And of course, thank you to all our Krispy Kremeers for their hard work in 2023 and your ongoing commitment to bring joy to our customers through Krispy Kreme. Thank you. Operator00:39:40This concludesRead moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallKrispy Kreme Q4 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Annual report(10-K) Krispy Kreme Earnings HeadlinesKrispy Kreme® GREEN ORIGINAL GLAZED DOUGHNUT ReviewApril 15 at 3:38 AM | msn.comDonut Delight: Krispy Kreme CravingsApril 15 at 3:38 AM | msn.comNow I look stupid. Real stupid... I thought what happened 25 years ago was a once- in-a-lifetime event… but how wrong I was. Because here we are, a quarter of a century later, almost to the exact day, and it’s happening again. April 15, 2025 | Porter & Company (Ad)Tax Day food deals 2025: Score discounts, freebies at Krispy Kreme, Burger King, moreApril 14 at 3:09 PM | msn.comKrispy Kreme: Upside From Here Is Much More AttractiveApril 12 at 10:04 AM | seekingalpha.comTesco shoppers brand Krispy Kreme and Costa Coffee under £4 deal 'insane'April 11, 2025 | msn.comSee More Krispy Kreme Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Krispy Kreme? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Krispy Kreme and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Krispy KremeKrispy Kreme (NASDAQ:DNUT), together with its subsidiaries, produces doughnuts in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S., International, and Market Development. The company offers doughnut experiences through hot light theater and fresh shops, delivered fresh daily branded cabinets and merchandising units within grocery and convenience stores, quick service restaurants, club memberships, drug stores, and ecommerce, as well as through its branded sweet treat line comprising Krispy Kreme branded sweet treats. It also provides cookies under the Insomnia Cookies brand, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and brownies; and operates Krispy Kreme company-owned shops and franchise shops. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.View Krispy Kreme ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles Why Analysts Boosted United Airlines Stock Ahead of EarningsLamb Weston Stock Rises, Earnings Provide Calm Amidst ChaosIntuitive Machines Gains After Earnings Beat, NASA Missions AheadCintas Delivers Earnings Beat, Signals More Growth AheadNike Stock Dips on Earnings: Analysts Weigh in on What’s NextAfter Massive Post Earnings Fall, Does Hope Remain for MongoDB?Semtech Rallies on Earnings Beat—Is There More Upside? 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There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by. My name is Mandeep, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Krispy Kreme 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. All lines are being placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Operator00:00:29I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Stephanie Dacus, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Dacus, please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:44Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Krispy Kreme's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Thank you for joining us today. Our earnings release and associated earnings presentation, which we will be referencing during the call, are available on our Investor Relations website investors. Crispycream.com. Speaker 100:01:05Joining me on the call this morning are Josh Charlesworth, Chief Executive Officer and Jeremiah Ashukian, Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call contains forward looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements of expectations, future events or future financial performance. Forward looking statements involve a number of inherent risks and uncertainties, and we caution investors that these risks could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward looking statements. These factors and other risks and uncertainties are described in detail in the company's Form 10 ks filed with the SEC for the year ended January 1, 2023, and in the other filings we make from time to time with the SEC. Speaker 100:02:01Forward looking statements made today are only as of today. The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements except as may be required by law. Additionally, today's call will include certain non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between non GAAP financial measures and our and is also available at our investors. Crispykreme.com website. Speaker 100:02:35With that, I'll turn the call over to Josh. Speaker 200:02:38Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm so excited for what is ahead of us at Krispy Kreme. Our strategy is clear to make our fresh donuts available in more places and keep reminding people of the joy that is Krispy Kreme, not just to eat, but to share and give to others. We make great progress on this in 2023 with strong consumer demand and increased access to our fresh donuts in both existing and new markets around the world. We also improved profitability as we grew, demonstrating the productivity benefits of our unique hub and spoke operating model. Speaker 200:03:16As we move forward in 2024, We will continue to offer new and exciting specialty premium donuts, upgrade our digital commerce capabilities and expand the availability of our doughnuts around the world, including in our newer sales channels like club stores and quick service restaurants. We will also increase our efforts to modernize the making and moving of doughnuts to ensure we deliver high quality profitable growth. Let me summarize today's key messages. We continued to deliver double digit organic revenue growth with all markets and channels growing sales. We expanded profit margins by leveraging existing production hubs to support our growth, especially in the U. Speaker 200:04:04S. Where operating leverage was strongest. Our ongoing strategy is to scale the business efficiently by adding more fresh points of access. There are now more than 14,100 places where you can buy our melt in your mouth fresh donuts in 39 countries. Our focus on operating excellence means that we're building both a bigger and better Krispy Kreme business. Speaker 200:04:31And finally, we are introducing our 2024 outlook with organic growth expected to translate into adjusted EBITDA expansion, reflecting our intent to drive increasingly profitable growth. We delivered 13.2% organic revenue growth in the 4th quarter, ahead of our guide and 12.2 percent organic revenue growth for the full year. This performance reflected strong consumer demand With people choosing to celebrate Halloween, Thanksgiving and the holiday season with premiums priced specialty doughnuts from Krispy Kreme, including a Scooby Doo Doozen and our first ever e. L. F. Speaker 200:05:12Donut collection celebrating the 20th anniversary of the family favorite holiday movie. Tie ins like this helped create tremendous excitement for the brand in 2023, and we finished the year with over 40,000,000,000 media impressions, Reflecting how well Krispy Kreme's fresh and innovative donuts resonated with the consumer, e commerce also continues to play a bigger role within our business, growing over 25% in the 4th quarter, driven by new loyalty members, which now total over €15,000,000 as well as operational improvements to our website, app and in shop availability. Organic growth was also driven by adding new points of access, which increased by 743, a much stronger 4th quarter expansion than in prior years, reflecting the growing demand from existing and new partners who want to make everybody's favorite Fresh doughnuts available to their customers. The same goes for new countries with Krispy Kreme opening in Ecuador and France in the 4th quarter to add to Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Switzerland, Chile and Costa Rica, which were all added earlier in the year. The continued expansion of our hub and spoke model delivered productivity growth and increased profitability in the 4th quarter With adjusted EBITDA margin improving 40 basis points to 14.2%. Speaker 200:06:39The hub and spoke model is becoming more productive as we add more points of access without adding significantly more production hubs. We ended 2023 with 2,300 more points of access than in 2022, mostly through deliver fresh daily displays in grocery and convenience stores. And we did this was adding net one production hub. The resulting increased utilization of our production hubs, most of which can still make twice as many donuts as they do today, made them more efficient and profitable. We also completed the optimization of our production hubs without spokes in 2023, closing legacy donut shops, which were not well suited to the strategy. Speaker 200:07:25Our 4th quarter and full year results exemplify the success and power of our hub and spoke model. And in 2024, I look forward to us becoming a bigger and better Krispy Kreme by continuously improving our business operations as we grow. And the number one reason why someone may not buy a Krispy Kreme donut continues to be access and convenience. With more than 2,000,000 locations where we could in theory sell Krispy Kreme, at least in the markets we've targeted, the opportunity to expand availability is big. We have previously shared our long term goal of opening at least 75,000 points of access around the world, yet this still represents less than 3% of total addressable market. Speaker 200:08:07And we are adding new customers all the time, such as Costco and international markets McDonald's in the U. S. Where we have been conducting an extended test in Kentucky for much of 2023. Our relationship with McDonald's remains strong with discussions ongoing about further expansion and we look forward to providing updates On our quick service restaurant plans through 2024, we also expect to launch Krispy Kreme in 3 to 5 new countries in 2024 With several priority markets identified in Europe, as well as Brazil, where we just announced an exciting new partnership with the convenience store chain AMPM. We have perfected the art of making our original glazed doughnut over the last 87 years and bringing joy to our consumers across the world. Speaker 200:08:55Yet, there remains the opportunity to modernize the way we make and move our doughnuts, bringing efficiency to the process whilst maintaining consistent high quality and service levels. We have started 2024 by making changes to our global leadership team to reflect these In Angelo Joachim, we are adding a new Chief Information Officer with deep digital technology experience across multiple industries. Our Global Supply Chain Leader, Sharif Riyadh, formerly of Mondelez has stepped into the team as has our U. S. Business leader, Javier Rancano, who has extensive QSR operations experience. Speaker 200:09:34As a leadership team, we are focused on quality fresh doughnuts in every channel every day, expanding the use of automated donut making and processing and continuously improving our donut delivery capabilities as we support more and more points of access. An example of this is a pilot we are just starting on select routes in LA and DC to deliver our fresh donuts through a third party logistics provider still using dedicated Krispy Kreme trucks and drivers. As we focus on our core strategy of producing, selling and distributing fresh donuts daily, we continue our strategic review of Insomnia Cookies. With that, I will turn it over to Jeremiah to give further insight on our financial performance and provide an outlook for 2024. Speaker 300:10:21Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. As Josh mentioned, we reported strong double digit 4th quarter organic growth improved profitability for the year demonstrating the productivity benefits of our hub and spoke model. In the 4th quarter, we grew double digit on both Top and bottom line on a percentage basis, resulting in adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 40 basis points year over year to 14.2%. We saw growth in all our markets driven by high impact global brand activations and seasonal offerings, increased points of access and premiumization efforts. Adjusted EBITDA grew 14.7 percent outpacing our revenue growth for the 2nd consecutive quarter as we continue to realize cost efficiencies across the global business through both productivity efforts, increased utilization of our hubs. Speaker 300:11:09For the full year, the business performed largely in line with expectations as we delivered 12.2 percent organic growth, increased adjusted EBITDA by 11% and expanded margins. Organic growth accelerated to 13.2% in the 4th quarter. Notably, we saw growth across all our segments in 2023 on top of strong performance in 2022. In the U. S. Speaker 300:11:32Segment, organic revenue grew 13.7% in the 4th quarter, driven by record holiday season, specialty doughnut offerings drove incremental sales through all channels, especially DFT and had positive impact on our sales. We also observed increased transaction values due to growth of our e commerce channel. All of this was underpinned by our strategy of growing points of access, which grew 17.7% year over year with more than 300 DFT doors added in Q4 versus Q3 and over 1,000 doors added versus 2022. At Insomnia Cookies, we observed strong organic growth of 16.3% as well as sequential margin improvement from Q3. That said, margins in the business remain pressured given the elevated cost of Cocoa. Speaker 300:12:19The hub and spoke model first established in the U. K. And Australia is now well underway in the U. S. With several cities seeing marked improvements in profitability during the year as we added more points of access to the existing hubs. Speaker 300:12:31This as well as our ability to leverage pricing to offset inflation explains The increase in sales per hub of 8.9% year over year and the subsequent 120 basis point adjusted EBITDA margin improvement for the year. In the International segment, organic revenue grew 9% year over year as we expanded points of access and leveraged global campaigns over the holiday season to drive volume of our specialty donuts. Most notably, we executed our e. L. F. Speaker 300:12:57Specialty donuts in 9 markets worldwide, leveraging a single set of marketing materials, seeing great results in Mexico and the U. K. Mexico was a substantial contributor to growth this quarter. We have nearly doubled points of access in Mexico through existing partners such as OXXO with meaningful room to continue expanding in the country. We also saw successful growth in new partners such as Costco in Australia, which continues to prove to be an efficient customer. Speaker 300:13:26Adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially in the quarter to 20.6 percent with margin expansion in both Australia and Mexico. Profitability continues to be pressured in the U. K. And we're taking actions to improve productivity. In the Market Development segment, Organic revenue grew 19.2% in the 4th quarter as we continue our international expansion by opening 126 more points of access through a combination of theaters, Fresh shops and DFD doors. Speaker 300:13:55We opened in 2 new markets, Ecuador and France, and expect that these two countries alone can support more than 2,000 further points of access. Most notably, Paris represented a record breaking launch in the 4th quarter. This shop was our best performing shop worldwide on a sales basis in December. Market Development adjusted EBITDA grew 21.1% in the 4th quarter with margins expanding by 120 basis points to 35.4%. Margin improvements were primarily driven by continued hub and spoke efficiencies in our equity owned Japanese and Canadian markets. Speaker 300:14:29As we continue to expand globally, we expect to see high returns in international franchises. The JV structure of the French market is a prime example of our capital light model approach, which enables earnings flow throughout significant margins We're providing the option to take equity ownership of the market in the future. As you heard from Josh earlier, we announced our future entry into Brazil using a similar approach. For the year ending 2023, we delivered $0.27 in adjusted earnings per share driven by improvements in adjusted EBITDA that were offset by higher than expected depreciation and amortization as we continue to accelerate both domestically and globally at Insomnia Cookies and made choice for investments in anticipation of accelerated growth in the U. S. Speaker 300:15:14DFT business. We also saw increased annual interest expense as a result of the higher interest rate environment. As a result, we saw adjusted diluted earnings per share finish lower than our original Our business fundamentals remain strong and we are confident in our ability to grow EPS despite remaining in the somewhat higher interest rate environment in 2024. As mentioned on previous calls, in 2023, we deployed some of our operating cash flow to strategically reduce our use of vendor financing, which had an impact On net cash from operations, over the year, we reduced vendor financing by roughly $82,000,000 which will provide a long term tailwind of $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 on an annualized basis to adjusted EBITDA beginning in mid-twenty 24. Despite these efforts, are able to hold leverage flat through 2023 finishing the year at 4.1 times. Speaker 300:16:05We have a healthy balance sheet having our maturities to 2028 in the Q1 of 2023. We closed the year with just under $40,000,000 in cash and have access to ample liquidity through our revolver with an undrawn capacity of $159,000,000 We remain focused on the long term health of the business and setting up our capital structure to support growth through a strong balance sheet. We expect to delever in 2024 primarily through the growth of adjusted EBITDA and running the business with an eye towards efficiency and capital expenditures as well as managing working capital. Over the long term, we remain on track to be between 2.0x2.5x net leverage in 2026. As we look forward to 2024, we're providing our outlook for the full year, which assumes a nominal impact from foreign exchange and contemplates all operations including Insomnia Cookies. Speaker 300:16:58For the full year 2024, we expect to deliver net revenue growth of 5% to 7%, organic revenue growth of 6% to 8%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 11% and adjusted diluted earnings per share of between $0.27 and $0.31 After reporting strong double digit 4th quarter and full year organic growth in excess of our full year guide, we remain confident in our 2024 guidance and our ability to drive operating leverage as we become more coordinated as a global company. We believe we are well positioned for sustainable high quality growth in the years to come, leveraging the tools which helped us deliver a great finish to the year in 2023. As it relates to the Q1, Despite the harsh weather in broad parts of the U. S. In January and lapping record breaking sales in the Q1 of 2023, we expect net revenue growth of 2% to 4%. Speaker 300:17:54We also expect adjusted EBITDA to grow in line with revenue growth. We will closely monitor and adapt to changes in the market consumer environment and I remain confident about the profitable growth potential of our business in 2024 and we're excited for a great year to come. With that, I'll turn it over to Josh for his closing remarks. Speaker 200:18:13Thanks, Jeremiah. In summary, we are expanding availability by adding high quality productive points of access, driving operating leverage through the efficiency of our operating model and maximizing capital return both by leveraging existing capacity and making selective investments in geographies, which have limited access to Krispy Kreme today. All in, I look forward to us building a bigger and better Krispy Kreme in the years ahead. Operator, Let's now open it up to Q and A, please. Operator00:18:47The floor is now open for your questions. Our first question comes from the line of Sara Senatore with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Speaker 400:19:14Hi, good morning. This is Jessica Osuafari on for Sarah Sanitore. Thank you. So for last quarter, you said you were in advanced discussions about expanding the McDonald's partnership and we're making investments in the U. S. Speaker 400:19:26But it looks like the 100 and So, and I know that the press release alluded to more growth in the quick service restaurant channel, but I wanted to see if there's any more color you could provide on that agreement. And I do have a couple more questions, but I think I can ask them one at a time. Speaker 200:19:46Sure. Good morning, Jessica. Yes, obviously, word is out on the success of our delivered fresh daily donut program. Several customer opportunities in existing and new channels around the world. Regarding quick service restaurants in the U. Speaker 200:20:02S, Our focus does continue to be on McDonald's. Discussions are ongoing and productive about an expanded partnership, And we'll provide an update on that one when we have it. Speaker 400:20:15Okay. All right. Speaker 200:20:15What was your second question? Speaker 400:20:18So in the U. S. And international markets, revenue growth was slightly less on points of access growth. I know you think in terms of growth in sales per hub, but as we try to forecast sales going forward, how should we think about new points of access? Is it fair to assume that they'll have lower volumes than the existing base of points of access? Speaker 400:20:36And if so, is that driven by the type of store and will that change if you accelerate expansion into the quick service industry? Speaker 200:20:44Well, it's interesting. Obviously, the 3 international markets there, U. K, Australia and Mexico all in Different situations, the UK, Australia much more developed in the grocery store customer mix. Mexico really, really starting out with a big opportunity in convenience stores. So you get a constant Mix effect there. Speaker 200:21:12Underlying performance is good, but you're going to get these mix effects For the forecasting, especially in Mexico with the big opportunity with the OXXO convenience store chain. Speaker 400:21:27Okay. Thank you. And could you remind us how much of your commodity basket you have locked in? Speaker 300:21:36Yes, I can take that, Jessica. And we started to put on cover on commodities earlier in 2023. We do expect to see mid- to high single digit inflation overall for 2024. Most of our commodities are now covered. So about 75% of them are covered of the commodities that we actually can cover, as it made sense for us from a pricing perspective or just a security of supply perspective. Speaker 300:22:03It's a bit of a mixed bag within that kind of high single digit mid to high single digit inflation number Amongst our cost structure, as we're forecasting inflation in excess of 20% on things like sugar, where the market remains around 10 year highs and low double digit inflation on things like cartons, which is a commodity we can hedge, but we do expect to see some deflation on key commodities like wheat and edible oils. I think it's important to note out just outside of commodities from a labor perspective, we do believe that we'll be subject to the wage increases in California. And as a result, we continue to expect to see high single digit to low double digit inflation on labor in 2024. Speaker 400:22:41Okay. All right. Thank you so much for your time. Speaker 200:22:44Thank you. Operator00:22:47Our next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Speaker 500:22:54Hey, team. This is Luke Job on for John Ivenco. Just wondering if you could give some language around specific changes to kind of the current process or model that we're focused on with specification to modernization of the doughnut making process and kind of especially delivery within that? Thanks. Speaker 200:23:16Sure. Thanks, Luke. I'll take that. Yes, you picked up on our efforts to modernize the way we make and move our doughnuts. That goes all the way from the sort of digitization of the process through to the automation of the doughnut making itself And then all the way on to upscaling our donut transportation, all in we're working to ensure the freshest donuts every time, delivered as efficiently as possible. Speaker 200:23:47We've shared before the automation efforts. We have A line running in New York, which is now automatically filling, topping And even packing the doughnuts, we're looking to perfect that and then roll it out in as time goes on. And then regarding the logistics in particular, the rapid expansion of DFD means that we're becoming more logistics becoming more and more important. So we announced on today's call that we have a pilot covering select routes in D. C. Speaker 200:24:30And L. A. And that's expected to take about 4 to 6 months. And the purpose of that To work with the 3rd party providers to see if we can maintain quality and service whilst being able to access new capabilities that they can bring and over time improve our operations and indeed bring more efficiency. So it's an effort end to end to continuously improve donut making and moving, and we'll provide updates as we learn more. Speaker 500:25:00Great. Thanks. Speaker 200:25:02Our Operator00:25:05next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist. Please go ahead. Speaker 600:25:13Hi, good morning. This is Davis Holcomb on for Bill Schappell. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to know, we saw that your guidance this year for fiscal year 2024 includes operations from Insomnia Cookies, but we're I wanted to know if you could provide a little bit of color on what the sales guide would be without the inclusion of Insomnia Cookies? Speaker 300:25:36Yes. I mean, number 1, we're pleased with the performance of Insomnia as the business continues to grow profitably and improve sequentially in terms of EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA improvement. We opened a record number of cookie bakeries in 2023. We also talked about the growth rate at insomnia at 16.3% on the earnings call as well. There continues to be lots of Opportunity on this business to expand both the U. Speaker 300:26:03S. Internationally, we do expect it to continue to grow double digit in 2024. But just given the fact that we're in the process, as we said in Q3, we're conducting a strategic review and look forward to sharing more news about it that we can. I think in the last earnings call, I did let everybody know that we operate or the impact on Insomnia would have a roughly 100 to 200 basis point impact on the top line though. Speaker 600:26:31Excellent. Thanks for the color. I'll pass it on. Operator00:26:38Our next question comes from the line of Ashley Groeninger with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:26:46Hey, good morning. So CapEx came in as a percent of revenue for 2023 at 7.2%. And the new 2024 outlook, You're targeting 7 to 8. We're just wondering how concrete of a number that is. Does that include any incremental investments you would need to make if, let's say, a QSR partnership was to come to fruition in 2024? Speaker 200:27:11Yes. Good morning, Aisling. Our confidence in the DFD opportunity around the world and especially in the U. S. Including QSR in such that we have thoughtfully started making additional investments in manufacturing capacity to support it. Speaker 200:27:30For example, we've secured new sites in Miami, Twin Cities and LA, all conversions of existing buildings looking to accelerate Times are opening to keep up with demand. To clarify though, the investments we're making, they're in broad support of the expansion DFD overall. So they're not dependent specifically, for example, on McDonald's, but their investments that we very much believe make a lot of sense for our business going forward in terms of bringing Krispy Kreme to more people in those new channels. Speaker 700:28:08Great. Thanks for that. My second question is on, I think we touched on this before, but it's in Slide 18 of your presentation. It's about average revenue per door per week for international. Just what's the dynamics behind it's been the decrease year over year? Speaker 700:28:25Is it just opening these DFD doors in less prime locations than the earlier locations? Or just any color would help. Thanks. Speaker 300:28:33Yes. It's a great question. APDs internationally were impacted in 2,002 by the U. K. Regulations that were put in place called HFSS, which required us to move where the locations were in the stores, which had an immediate step down in terms of productivity. Speaker 300:28:51Moving forward, the APD per door has been impacted by adding more convenience type locations, which Josh mentioned, around places like OXXO in Mexico, which on average is smaller footprint, which could be a lower kind of dollar per door. So overall, kind of the effect there will have a pull on. We believe the APD will remain fairly flattish internationally kind of moving forward. Speaker 200:29:16It's worth clarifying on the U. S. Because actually interesting with APDs growing strongly, We're seeing that we're actually bringing on even more productive new customers and locations showing that there's a lot of white space opportunity in the U. S. It's interesting international. Speaker 200:29:40Mexico, an example where we are leading on convenience store. In the U. S. Is a lot of grocery stores, Mass club stores, for example, big opportunities there. So the APD will evolve over time with different types of customers, But all in, we're seeing continuously productive doors, ones that support our margin expansion plans. Speaker 700:30:06Great. Thank you so much for that. I'll pass it back. Speaker 400:30:09Thank Speaker 800:30:33Hey, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Just going back to the U. S. Expansion of hubs, You mentioned Minnesota, California, Florida, and I think New England and Upstate New York were also opportunities. Speaker 800:30:47So just thinking through kind of those, are there certain you see as priorities right now? And are there certain markets that you need to get open before doing like a national QSR rollout? Speaker 200:31:01Well, you know, a good QSR rollout with a customer like, for example, McDonald's, 13,000, 14,000 restaurants in the U. S, we could cover about 6,000 restaurants just with our existing network. So your question goes to the 7000 or 8000 assuming you're taking McDonald's as the benchmark that we would need to cover In areas where mostly it's those areas you described in the country where Krispy Kreme isn't today. Our plans are anyway over time to open up in those places and reference to either Miami, LA, New England, all the ones you referenced, Upstate New York, they're all in our plants. Naturally, those that we have already maxed out capacity or we've identified sites are the ones we're prioritizing in the short term. Speaker 200:31:56But they all make sense for us. So we're actually looking across the country in all those locations as we build out our plans for DFD and QSR in the future. Speaker 800:32:11Great. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up to that, it's kind of like a modeling question just around the CapEx spend. So the 7% to 8% of revenue guidance for 2024, just thinking about the expansion and I think you had said $3,000,000 to $6,000,000 for some of those hubs. Is there a cadence we should be thinking about quarter to quarter for the year? Speaker 800:32:31Is it going to be pretty evenly spread throughout? Or should it be back weighted? Just Trying Speaker 700:32:37to get some help there. Thank you. Speaker 200:32:41On the CapEx, I mean, the hubs themselves are coming online, probably a little more back weighted. Yes. The CapEx itself though phases differently, doesn't it, Jeremiah? Speaker 300:32:50Yes. I mean, there's a cash flow from CapEx that will happen here, because we've spent or at least, decided to deploy capital last year in an effort to get some of these up and running earlier in the year. From a modeling perspective, I mean, for the most part, we will follow a fairly uniform spend of CapEx throughout the year, as we have in previous years. So it's a fairly consistent number when you think about a percent of of revenue that will balance between 7% 8% for the quarters. It will just balance up and down between those numbers more or less. Speaker 800:33:30Okay. Thank you. Operator00:33:35Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Wolf with C. L. King. Please go ahead. Speaker 900:33:44Thanks. Good morning. First, I wanted to ask about The Q1 sales being low trend and tie that to the year because obviously You're looking for a big rebound to more like 6% to 8% to get to the 5% to 7% for the year for the Q2 through Q4, Little more in line with what we were I think Street was expecting. Speaker 400:34:10So could you just kind of Speaker 900:34:11flesh out a little bit what you're seeing in the quarter? How much you think is Pure weather, is there anything else going on? Do you have sort of non weather impact in markets either in the U. S. Or Canada or Even the other segments that sort of point to sort of some more normalized growth supporting the rebound for the rest of the year? Speaker 300:34:31Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I can take that. I think I'll probably start off by just saying we're actually pleased with the fact that we'll continue To post growth in Q1 after a record Q1 in 2023 and 14 consecutive quarters of organic growth, the last time we didn't grow in a quarter during COVID and as a result of some of the U. K. Speaker 300:34:51Shutdown or slowdown. Organic growth in the quarter is actually close to 3% to 6%, Given we'll be lapping the discontinuation of BST, as you mentioned, like many others, we saw harsh weather in broad parts of the U. S. In January leading to lower revenues and a softer start to the year, which also comes up against the comp of 14.4% last year, but also a couple of one offs to your point. 1, at Insomnia Cookies, we have a lap against extended delivery zones that will be in our base, which provided some tailwind last year. Speaker 300:35:23And then 2, in market development, we had a one off shift in the timing of some equipment sales in our market development franchise business, which resulted in a higher sales being recognized in 1Q last year. That said, we're excited for Valentine's Day tomorrow, which is one of our biggest sales days of the year, Not to mention other key specialty donut offerings over the course of the year. We're definitely committed to disciplined growth in pursuit of the full year guide that I laid out. And we will, when you think about from a cadence point of view, lap some other things as we get into Q2 that may go the other way, most notably the NCR outage that we had in the U. S. Speaker 300:35:58In Q2 twenty which will help us kind of recover back in Q2. Speaker 200:36:02Yes. The only thing I'll add is we're looking forward to Quality sustained growth through 2024. And Q4 showed once again that the consumer just loves our doughnuts, especially for sharing and gifting at special occasions and celebrations like Valentine's that Jeremiah mentioned, even when priced at a premium. And we see that in all sales channels with really quite phenomenal growth recently in in e commerce in particular. So our consumer is engaging with the brand more than ever. Speaker 200:36:35And that's the key backdrop to understanding Krispy Kreme. Speaker 400:36:43Okay. And if Speaker 900:36:44I can just add another Follow-up just related also to sales. And I assume for the year, you only have the 160 or so McDonald's stores in there. But I guess for the U. S. Specifically, is there any less of A push on sales in any way, whether it's not putting up stores, you might have put hubs that you might have put up Because you're deferring and is there any impact on what's in the guidance because you're kind of throttling any part of the U. Speaker 900:37:20S. Operations back in anticipation of either McDonald's or another QSR? Speaker 200:37:28There's no throttling back. It's absolutely the case that the DFD continues to be a core driver of our growth. Indeed, as I mentioned a moment ago, the Q4 addition of doors around the world included the U. S. At a time which has traditionally been problematic for our customers, they want to put in other seasonal items. Speaker 200:37:54This year, want to put in our items and prioritize listing new doors for Krispy Kreme. So definitely no throttling back. At the same time, We are very focused on improving the quality of our operations, ensuring high quality sustainable growth, Working as I mentioned on making moving donuts and continuously better ways. So that naturally means we're very thoughtful As we grow to make sure we have the best points of access, strong hubs, making sure they're set up for future Growth, as also mentioned, with many of the donut shops still heavily underutilized, they're able to make More than twice the amount of doughnuts that they do today, most of those lines, getting ready for growth with QSR and other new channels is an effort is a lift. And so we're making sure that everywhere we grow, it's in a way that ensures high quality Donuts presented freshly consumer in every channel, whilst maintaining productivity and efficiency. Speaker 200:39:00So Yes, we're certainly working hard on the system, but we're not as such throttling back. Speaker 900:39:10Thank you. That's a really helpful color. I'll pass it on. Thank you. Speaker 200:39:14You bet. Thanks, Andrew. Operator00:39:18I would now like to turn the call over to Josh Charlesworth for closing remarks. Speaker 200:39:24Well, thank you everybody. Thank you for your interest in Krispy Kreme today. And of course, thank you to all our Krispy Kremeers for their hard work in 2023 and your ongoing commitment to bring joy to our customers through Krispy Kreme. Thank you. Operator00:39:40This concludesRead moreRemove AdsPowered by