New Gold Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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February 14, 2024

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning.

Speaker 1

My name is Mark, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to New Gold's 4th Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call and webcast is being recorded. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ankit Shah, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for New World's 4th quarter and full year 2023 earnings Call and Webcast. On the line today, we have Patche Baudin, President and CEO Joanne Bouchard, our COO and Keith Murphy, our CFO. In addition, we have Luc Buchanan, Vice President, Technical Services and Jean Francois Rabenal, Vice President, Geology available for the Q and A portion of the call. Should you wish to follow along with the webcast, please sign in from our homepage at newgold.com.

Speaker 2

Before the team begins the presentation, I would like to direct your attention to our cautionary language related to forward looking statements found on Slide 2 of the presentation. Today's commentary includes forward looking statements relating to New Gold. In this respect, we refer you to our detailed cautionary note regarding forward looking statements in the presentation. You are cautioned that actual results and future could differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward looking statements. Slide 2 provides additional information and should be reviewed.

Speaker 2

We also refer you to the section entitled Risk Factors in New Gold's latest AIF, MD and A and other filings available on SEDAR Plus, which set out certain material factors that could cause the actual results to differ. In addition, at the conclusion of the presentation, are a number of endnotes that provide important information and should be reviewed in conjunction with the material presented. I will now turn the call over to Pat for some opening remarks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Ankit, and good morning, everyone. 2023 was an excellent year for New Gold. Reauthorizing Health and Safety through our Coverage to Care campaign led to an industry leading total reportable incident frequency rate of 0.8. We safely achieved the top end of our production guidance range, which was a 20% increase over 2022. And we met our whole in sustaining cost guidance range, delivering an 18% cost reduction over 2022.

Speaker 3

We delivered key project milestone on time, such as completing the first draw bell at New Afton Sea Zone as well as advancing the underground main zone At Trinity River and we have the operations of our Sabadis. We're able to return our focus to exploration, which was highlighted by a 74% replacement of Rainy River's mineral reserves and the subject pipeline for mine life extension at New Afton. In short, new goals match or exceed our stated objectives in 2023. Last week, we present our 3 years operational outlook as well as our long term strategic outlook. We thank everyone who participated in the webcast.

Speaker 3

The presentation and webcast are still available on our website, And I encourage everyone who was unable to participate to review. I will reiterate the highlights from the road map we presented on Slide 5. The online production growth over the next 3 years of 35% gold and 60% in copper as well as the corresponding 51% reduction in ASIC and 77% reduction in growth capital over the next 3 years, which will drive significant margins in cash flow. We also discussed our strategic objectives beyond 2026 are targeting a production platform of 600,000 gold equivalent ounces per year The mine of sight until at least 2030 as well as our pipeline of opportunities and exploration upside to Western mine lives Well into the next decade, we remodels capital presence. Before I pass things over to Keith, I'll conclude on Slide 6.

Speaker 3

First, our current liquidity position remains strong. We had $186,000,000 of cash at year end 2023 and we have $373,000,000 undrawn of our credit facility. Based on the 3 years outlook presented last week, We expect to generate significant free cash flow over the next few years with the inflection point taking place in the second half of 2024. As a result, we are incredibly well positioned to achieve our strategic outlook to at least 2,030. We'll have the financial flexibility to repay our 2027 bonds and advanced several opportunities to end mine life beyond 2,030.

Speaker 3

To reiterate, We are entering in a very exciting period for New Gold. With that, I will turn the call over to Keith.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Pat. I'm on Slide 8, which has our production highlights. Q4 was another solid quarter. We produced over 105,000 gold equivalent ounces, which put us right at the top of our guidance range. Rainy River produced approximately 63,000 gold ounces, bringing full year production to approximately 254,000 gold ounces, a 10% increase when compared to 2022.

Speaker 4

New Aston produced approximately 16,500 gold ounces and £12,000,000 of copper, bringing full year production to approximately 67,000 gold ounces and over £47,000,000 of copper. This represents a 46% increase in gold equivalent production compared to 2022. Gold produced at New Afton also includes 553 ounces from the ore purchase agreements in the quarter approximately 4,800 ounces for the year. Slide 9 outlines our cost highlights. Consolidated all in sustaining costs were $15.75 per equivalent ounce for the quarter and $15.45 for the year, at the midpoint of the guidance range.

Speaker 4

This represents a 15% decrease when compared to 2022, primarily driven by the increase in production in sales. Operating expense per gold equivalent ounce at Rainy River was above the guidance range, primarily due to higher operating tons and lower strip ratio. This is offset by lower sustaining capital, bringing Rainy River's all in sustaining cost in line with the guidance range. At New Afton, full year all in sustaining cost was at the low end of the guidance range due to higher production and sales. Turning to our financial results on Slide 10.

Speaker 4

4th quarter revenue was $199,000,000 Q4 revenue was higher than the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher metal prices and sales volumes. Cash generated from operations before working capital adjustments was $65,000,000 or $0.09 per share for the quarter. This was higher than the prior year period, primarily due to higher revenue. The company generated 1,000,000 positive free cash flow in the quarter, which again continues to underscore that the company can generate free cash flow while still investing in our growth projects. Rainy River continued to deliver free cash flow and generated $55,000,000 in the year.

Speaker 4

The company recorded a net loss of approximately $27,000,000 or $0.04 per share during the Q4. The increase in net loss as compared to the prior year quarter was primarily driven by higher non cash unrealized losses on the revaluation of the Rainy River Goldstream obligation and the New Aston free cash flow interest obligation, partially offset by the higher revenue. After adjusting for certain other charges, net loss was $4,700,000 or $0.01 per share in Q4, an improvement when compared to an adjusted net loss of $6,300,000 in the Q4 of 2022. The improvements in adjusted net earnings were primarily due to those higher revenues. Our Q4 adjusted earnings include adjustments related to other gains and losses.

Speaker 4

Our total capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $61,000,000 with $24,000,000 spent on sustaining capital and $37,000,000 on growth capital. At Rainy River, sustaining capital spend was below the low end of the guidance, primarily due to lower capital stripping with $25,000,000 deferred to 2024. Spend related primarily to the tailings dam raise and capital stripping, growth capital related to underground development. At New Afton, sustaining capital spend primarily related to tailings management and stabilization activities, while growth primarily related to the ongoing C zone development. Total capital was at the low end of the guidance range.

Operator

Turning to Slide 11. We had

Speaker 4

cash on hand at the end of Q4 of $186,000,000 an increase of $7,000,000 from the previous quarter, driven by free cash flow generated at Rainy River, which offset the investments we made in C zone. The company's liquidity position was 559,000,000 We continue to execute short term hedges on CAD and fuel and are hedged at around 75% for Q1 2024. At Sumo, our financial position is strong with an increase in cash and available liquidity following a solid operating quarter, all while continuing to invest in our growth projects. Now I'll turn the call over to Johan to walk through our operating highlights. Well, thanks, Keith.

Operator

While commencing by Renewiver on Slide 13, Renewables continue to perform well, achieving another quarter in line with plans. As a result, Reliever achieved the top end of the gold equivalent production guidance range for the year with an all in sustaining cost at the midpoint of the cost guidance. The operation is well positioned to continue this trend into 2024. The Q4 operating expenses and all in sustaining costs were higher than the full year 2023 average due to the non cash impact of processing stockpile and lower sales. In Q4, the operation focused on mining the last benches of Phase 3, which was completed earlier this year.

Operator

In the underground mine, extraction from Entrepid is as planned And the development to the main zone is on schedule, and we're getting ready to develop the main ventilation on

Speaker 4

surface.

Operator

Looking back at the full year, we're pleased with the processing and mining performances. The operation demonstrated operational discipline, which gives high confidence in the years to come. As Pat previously note, it is also worth mentioning that we replaced the position of mining by a After 74%, those additional mineral reserves are from the underground Megdown and the West Open Pit Expansion called Page 5. Looking to 2024 on Slide 14, we are expecting a gold production of 250,000 to 280,000 ounces for the year compared to 254,000 ounces in 2023. As we discussed last week, approximately 60% of the production is expected in the second half of the year, mostly because of the open pit mining sequence.

Operator

We are transitioning from Phase 3 to Phase 4, So we'll reclaim some lower grade stockpile tons through Q1 and Q2, while we're using higher grade ore in the pit for the second half of the year. For the same reason, sustaining capital related to the waste stripping will be weighted in the first half of the year. In the underground mine, lateral development meter will ramp up throughout the year as we access Additional underground mining zones and more heading become available. As a result, about 2 third of growth capital is expected in the second half. Turning now to New Aflacel on Slide 15.

Operator

The excellent production is supported by B3 continuing to deliver above 8,000 tonne per day and the operation is showing stable operating expenses and all in sustaining cost profile. At C zone, the first raw bill was completed earlier Q4 and the project is on track to ramp up to 5,000 tonne per day year end 2024, supporting the production profile that was presented last week in the guidance and outlook presentation. The stabilization of the new Afton tailings storage facility is progressing above expectation with Consolidation happening much faster than predicted by our model, which is very good. Most of related to the stabilization is behind us and the project is on time with a comfortable contingency to accommodate the C zone production profile. Looking forward at New Afton on Slide 16, we are transitioning from B3K to C zone.

Operator

The year 2024 will see a significant ramp up in C zone mining rates, achieving commercial production in the second half of the year, although most of their production will still come from D3. The crusher and tonnage system commissioning is scheduled in the second half of the year. This will eliminate all the new carbon and impact positively on cost going forward. Throughout the year, B3 will provide a stable mill feed of approximately 8,300 tonne per day As we established the key footprint and as previously mentioned, C zone is expected to ramp up to about 5,000 tonne per day by the end of the year. Overall, we're looking at a 27% decrease in down process compared to 2023.

Operator

The higher throughput in 2024 will be partially offset by lower feed grade due to the cave draw sequence. Total gold production for the year is expected to be 60,000 to 70,000 ounces, while copper production is expected to be £50,000,000 to £60,000,000 with production expected to be relatively stable throughout the year. I will now turn the call back to Patrick.

Speaker 3

As I said at last week's presentation, I can say we have certainty and confidence that operationally we have made incredible progress. We will continue to deliver on our stated strategic goals for 2024. This includes delivering on production cost guidance With the same attention to help us. At New Afton, we will achieve commercial production at C zone and commission the crusher and conveyor. At Rainy River, we will reach first ore from the underground end zone.

Speaker 3

We will increase our exploration efforts targeting reserve replacement. 2024 will be a busy year, but it will be a transformative one for our company, our stakeholders, my teammates and our shareholders. This completes our presentation. I will now turn it back to the operator for the Q and A portion of the call.

Speaker 5

Thank

Speaker 1

Our first question comes from the line of Anita Soni of CIBC World Market.

Speaker 6

So last week you hosted a very comprehensive through your outlook and thank you for that. So a lot of the questions I think that we would have been asked on this call have been answered. But I guess what I'm looking for with this report was where Q4 costs came in and how that would calibrate with costs going forward and really looks largely in line with my expectations, but at New Afton, the cost came up in Q4. And I'm just trying to understand how those are going to come down over the course of the next 3 years. I know there's a lot of moving parts with mining from different zones, but could you give us sort of a I don't know.

Speaker 6

Directional and qualitative as well as a quantitative indication of both production sorry, both mining and processing costs at New Afton?

Operator

Anita, I see one here. Thanks for the question. Just want to say here, I mean that basically our unit cost, I mean per ton basis, I mean, we're pretty much just saying nothing changed there. This is mostly related to grade and by tons that we pushed through the mill in Q4. And it goes, I would say, as well for 2024 since based on the mining, the extraction sequence, we're going to see kind of a lower grade, and but that's going to be offset by higher throughput over the year.

Operator

So I would say and I think that was we put a comment on that aspect. But Overall, this is what you should, I would say, the way that you calibrate your model and the lower grade, higher throughput. And I think that's what's well And to answer your question going forward about the longer term costs, as you know, I mean, we're going to commission the pressure and the conveyor circuit at the end of this year. And based on that, we're going to see a drastic decrease in operating costs in 2025. So I'm expecting basically the cash cost and the operating cost to go down in 2025 significantly.

Operator

And overall, if you assume that we're going to ramp up to about 14,500 to 15,000

Speaker 1

On process,

Operator

the impact is going to be massive. Hopefully, that answered your question?

Speaker 6

Yes. So I guess What I would get from that is that in the processing side, in the back half of twenty twenty four, as you ramp up the throughput, Perhaps your processing costs will come down and there'll be a dramatic decrease in 2025 when you commission the crusher and conveyor.

Operator

That is correct, Anita.

Speaker 3

And also, Anita, in 2025, we're So having sustaining capital for the construction of the draw bill itself and the draw point. This construction will be completed at the end of 2025. 2026, it will mostly be extraction only. So this is why going forward 2025 will deplete and 2026

Speaker 6

Okay. And then another question, I guess the other one that I had was On the grade, so just drilling a little bit onto the copper grade, it seems a little The grade that you've guided to seems a little low. Like if you just throw in the tonnage, the recovery and the grade you provided, you'd be at the very low end of the copper guidance range. Is there something that you're sort of holding back a little bit in terms of the grade like positive grade reconciliation or potential to have better recovery rates, but you're a little on the conservative side. Is that fair to say?

Operator

I think, and you said a way to think about that is, for the block cave, the mining sequence It's really dictated basically by the shape of your cave. So I mean, but we didn't change the reserve grade. We don't feel that the model need to be adjusted. The low rate that we see for a short period of time is really due by the extraction sequence. But we don't expect we don't experience any additional dilution at this moment.

Operator

It's just this is just what we get from the model. And I would say when we compare, I would say the extraction model versus reality, we're pretty much spot on. So we have a very high predictabilities on that.

Speaker 6

All right. Okay. Thank you. That's it for my questions.

Operator

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Don DiMarco at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Thank you, operator, and good morning New Gold team. A couple of questions. With free cash flow projected to increase over the next couple of years, Could you give us some indications in your plans for capital allocation, how that may change or shift from investing internally or considering other options?

Speaker 3

Last week, we highlight our capital investment Profile for the next 3 years, as for sure this year, we need to complete major projects at New Haven, the C zone. We are developing and I think you want to explain that, that in terms of growth capital, we will deploy More money in Rainy River at the second half of this year, mainly because we'll have more headings, more opportunity to speed up the development. And after that, the capital expenditures will decrease going forward drastically up to 2026. So you have a graduation of our investment in the next 3 years. It's mostly, I think, I don't know what When we did the split between both sides and we did the split between sustaining and growth, I think Nothing is different today than it was last week.

Speaker 5

Okay. So I mean, you've got a little bit of debt, it's pretty manageable. Would you be targeting with the additional free cash flow and strengthening of the balance sheet, maybe targeting paying down some of that debt or looking at dividend options or potentially expanding the C zone looking ahead a few years or rather expanding the Eastern expansion looking ahead?

Speaker 2

Yeah. This is Keith Murphy.

Speaker 4

I think over the next couple of years, we're really focused on that operating ramp up and you see the free cash flow profile that we presented over the 3 years. With that, that's going to give us a lot of financial flexibility to look out at all those options.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. We'll look for clarity on that, I guess, in the quarters to come. Now one of the items on the last slide there was that you provide market clarity on teachers' buyback. Can you give us any updates on that with regard to maybe the timing of the clarity and what that clarity might involve?

Speaker 2

Hey, Donna. Thank you. Yes, I know last week at our presentation, we did provide some clarity on that. So the timing of the buyback, the 4 year anniversary is March 31. And then we have a 60 year window after that period.

Speaker 2

So we plan to provide clarity to the market on our intentions in the Q2 of this year. I think what should be noted is we worked really hard at getting our leverage position it's at and we're really focused on maintaining our financial flexibility. So any decision that we make in the Q2 and come to the market, we'll have that in the back of our minds as well.

Speaker 5

Okay, Inge. Thanks. So basically, expect maybe an update from the company within the 60 day period that follows The end of Q1, is that it? So it would be sort of within the 1st 60 days of Q2, is that what when you might provide an indication, for example, whether or not you choose to buy back a portion of their free cash flow interest?

Speaker 2

Yes, Don. I think There's a 60 day window and a 30 day financing period, so some timings of the second quarter.

Speaker 5

Okay, fair enough. Thanks so much guys and good luck with 2024.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. There seem to be no further questions on the phones at time, so I'll hand back to our speakers for the closing comments.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Mark. And thank you to everyone who has joined us today. As always, should you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to us by phone or email. Have a great day.

Speaker 1

Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

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