NYSE:KNSL Kinsale Capital Group Q4 2023 Earnings Report $482.91 -2.19 (-0.45%) Closing price 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$483.78 +0.87 (+0.18%) As of 05:13 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast Kinsale Capital Group EPS ResultsActual EPS$3.87Consensus EPS $3.44Beat/MissBeat by +$0.43One Year Ago EPS$2.60Kinsale Capital Group Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$351.17 millionExpected Revenue$367.98 millionBeat/MissMissed by -$16.81 millionYoY Revenue Growth+41.50%Kinsale Capital Group Announcement DetailsQuarterQ4 2023Date2/16/2024TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateFriday, February 16, 2024Conference Call Time9:00AM ETUpcoming EarningsKinsale Capital Group's Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Thursday, April 24, 2025, with a conference call scheduled on Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:00 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptPress Release (8-K)Annual Report (10-K)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfilePowered by Kinsale Capital Group Q4 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 16, 2024 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the 4th Quarter 2023 Kinsale Capital Group Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. Operator00:00:36These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2022 annual report on form 10 ks, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has a Form 8 ks with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its 4th quarter results. Kinsale's management may also reference certain non GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available on the company's website atwww.kinsalecapitalgroup.com. I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's President and CEO, Mr. Operator00:01:23Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir. Speaker 100:01:25Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Brian Petrucelli, our CFO and Brian Haney, our President and COO, and I will each offer a few remarks, and then we'll move on to any questions you may have. In the Q4 of 2023, Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 49% and gross written premium grew by 33.8% over the Q4 2022. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 72.1% and posted an operating ROE of 31.8% for the full year 2023. The company's strategy of disciplined E and S underwriting and technology enabled low costs drive these results and allows us to take market share from competitors at the same time. Speaker 100:02:22Specifically for those newer to the company, Kinsale focuses exclusively on the E and S market, on writing smaller accounts. We provide our brokers with the broadest risk appetite and the best customer service in the business, and we use our low expense ratio to offer our customers competitively priced insurance while also delivering best in class margins to our stockholders. Since much of this expense advantage is predicated on our advanced systems and our team of world class technology professionals, we believe the competitive advantage of our technology model not only has durability to it, but has the potential to become even more powerful in the years ahead. As we have noted over the last several years, the E and S market continues to benefit from the inflow of business from standard companies and from rate increases driven by inflation and relatively tight underwriting conditions. Our growth in the 4th quarter was similar to the 3rd and was largely consistent with the industry commentary about the property market becoming more orderly. Speaker 100:03:35We continue to be optimistic about growth in 2024. Finally, a reminder about our reserving process and approach. We collect premiums upfront and pay claims out over the subsequent several years. Accordingly, we post reserves now for claims we will have to pay in the future. We deliberately set those reserves in a conservative fashion. Speaker 100:03:59We set aside more than we think we will need to allow for some uncertainty in the process, the possibility of a changing towards system and the uptick of inflation we have experienced more Speaker 200:04:13recently in Speaker 100:04:13the last couple of years. Our 2016 through 2019 accident years have developed favorably on an inception to date basis, but the level of conservatism in those years has been partially eroded by inflation. Subsequent to 2019, we have benefited from very significant rate increases above the loss cost trend and we have used some of that additional rate to add to the level of conservatism in our reserves. Investors should have a high level of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet as we expect overall reserves to continue to develop favorably in the years ahead. And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Brian Petrucelli. Speaker 300:04:59Thanks, Mike. Another solid quarter with 33.8% growth in written premium, very low cat activity and net income and net operating earnings increasing by 53.7% and 49.6 percent respectively. The 72.1% combined ratio for the quarter included 2.3 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 3.2 points last year and negligible cat losses in either period. The expense ratio continues to benefit from higher ceding commissions from the company's casualty and commercial property proportional reinsurance agreements as a result of growth in both of those lines of business. The expense ratio can bounce around a bit from quarter to quarter, so we believe it's best to evaluate the components of the expense ratio over a 12 month period. Speaker 300:05:56For the year, we noted that the expense ratio decreased by 1.4 points from 22.2% in 2022 to 20.8% this year. Breaking this decrease down a little further, 1.2 points came from net commissions with the remaining 0.2 point from other underwriting expenses. On the investment side, net investment income increased by 71.2% over the Q4 last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio generated from strong operating cash flows and higher interest rates with a gross return of 4% for the year compared to 3% last year. We're continuing to invest new money and shorter duration securities with new money yields averaging in the low to mid 5% range and duration decreased to 2.8 years down from 3.5 years at the end of last year. And lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $3.87 per share for the quarter compared to $2.60 per share last year. Speaker 300:07:06And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney. Speaker 200:07:08Thanks, Brian. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 34% in the 4th quarter and 42% for the year. We continue to see growth across our book of business with particularly strong growth in our property divisions along with entertainment, general casualty, excess casualty and commercial auto divisions. Submission growth continues to be strong and actually experienced a bit of an acceleration to the mid-20s for the quarter. This number is subject to some variability, but in general we view submissions as a leading indicator of growth. Speaker 200:07:39So we see the submission growth rate as a positive signal. We sell a wide array of products and the rates in those products don't move up in lockstep, but if we boil it down to one number, we see real rates being up around 5%. Pleased in that we've been increasing rates above loss cost trend for several years now. And it's also important to stress that our rate change and rate adequacy are 2 different things as our results demonstrate our rates are more than adequate. We're continually reviewing our rates, adjusting them based on a number of considerations such as our target return on equity, the market opportunity and shifts in the competition. Speaker 200:08:15But in any event, we feel that business we're putting on the books today is the most adequately priced business we've seen in our history. Another thing I'd like to note, we've seen in industry commentary a trend that some companies are seeing generally favorable development on workers' comp that's offsetting to some extent adverse development in general liability. Just as a reminder, Kinsale doesn't write any workers' comp and general liability represents the largest share of our reserves. So when you see Kinsale having favorable development, you should know that this is a result of diligently staying ahead of the trends in the general liability market and it does differentiate us somewhat in the industry. That being said, the notable industry trend of weakness in general liability reserves bodes well for us and may serve to prolong the favorable market conditions. Speaker 200:09:01Finally, inflation has moderated somewhat from its highs, but getting the inflation rate to the Fed's target has proven to be a much longer effort than many prognosticators and forecast. The longer the elevated inflation persists, the more pressure the industry will see on reserves, particularly on longer tail lines. We are dedicated to staying vigilant about this so that we may continue to have reserves that are more likely to develop favorably than adversely. Overall, once again, a good quarter, and we're really happy with the results. And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike. Speaker 100:09:31Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're ready for any questions in the queue. Operator00:09:37Thank And we will take our first question from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Speaker 400:10:04Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on your comments about the conservatism implicit in your reserving. I was hoping you could offer a little bit more color on the loss emergence trends that you're seeing from those that sort of 2019 and prior accident year period, particularly in this environment where as you described some carriers are experiencing adverse development. And along those lines are latency effects associated with court closures during COVID resulting in tail elongation. Speaker 400:10:35Just curious whether how much that remains in focus? Speaker 100:10:40Bill, this is Mike. In general, I would say that there was some disruption with regard to the pandemic. It varies dramatically by accident year and by line of business. I mean, there's a level of complexity there that think would preclude us from getting into too much detail on a conference call. But in general, I would say that Kinsale has done a good job over our this is our 15th accident year in business. Speaker 100:11:17And I think we've done a really good job in setting aside conservative reserves, not every single year, but effectively, I think, 13 of the 14 prior years have developed favorably on an inception to date basis. So hopefully investors look at that track record of conservatism. As we just talked about, we've been adding, raising our rates ahead of loss cost trend for a number of years in a row now. And that's given us the opportunity to add even more conservatism. I think the conservatism is warranted with the uptick in inflation in general, but changes in tort law and social inflation, etcetera. Speaker 100:12:01I mean, there's all sorts of reasons for caution. And I just think it's important for our investors to understand that Kinsale is very proactive and very conservative in setting aside reserves today to pay clients in the future. Speaker 400:12:19That's helpful, Mike. Thank you. And I understand you're probably limited in what you can say about that court judgment described in the 8 ks that you filed at the end of last year. But following the thought process that you just described at a high level as we sort of think about social inflation pressures and the risk that those could prove more pervasive in coming years than might have been contemplated at the time that the business was written. You feel like the conservatism that you contemplated from the outset sort of protects you from that dynamic? Speaker 100:12:56Yes. In a nutshell, yes. I would say, we can't get into talking about that specific claim because it's active litigation. But we said in the 8 ks, we didn't think it would have a material adverse effect. Adequate provision has been made in the consolidated financial statements and existing reserves to account for any liability of the company related to claims such as this legal proceeding. Speaker 100:13:24I would say in general, there's been a lot of commentary over the last couple of years about social inflation. Some of that probably picks up this concept of nuclear verdicts and there has been a dramatic uptick. Kinsale is an E and S company. I mean, we make frequent use of coverage limitations to help us control our exposure to loss. We also tend to focus on smaller accounts, which probably insulates us a little bit. Speaker 100:13:55And I think we run a very disciplined underwriting operation. We've got really good systems, which translates into robust data to manage profitability. So it's something that creates, I think, a challenge for the industry. But I think Kinsale is very good at staying ahead of changes in the torque system. And when you add to that the conservatism and how we approach reserving, again, I think investors should have a lot of confidence in the consailed balance sheet. Speaker 400:14:31Understood. That's really helpful, Mike. Thank you. If I could squeeze in one last one. Are you considering for Brian, are you considering extending duration as the debate around the timing of Fed cuts continues? Speaker 400:14:43And maybe you could just frame how investors should be thinking about potential downside risk to earnings from a lower rate environment broadly? Yes. Speaker 300:14:56I mean we certainly are keep up with what's going on from an interest rate perspective and an inflation perspective. I think in the near term, we're probably going to continue to invest in that 3 year timeframe. But hey, it's something we look at every month and every quarter and working with our investment teams to ensure that we're taking being opportunistic, but being aware of rollover risk and what have you. Speaker 400:15:28Very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions. Speaker 100:15:31Thanks, Bill. Operator00:15:33And we will take our next question from Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 500:15:41Hey, good morning. Maybe we can just start on, you mentioned this submissions increased a bit into the mid-20s. I know there's some variability you cited on that, but any color there? I feel like insurance investors have been grappling with a potential uptick in flow on the casualty side given social inflationary pressures impacting everyone kind of maybe more than offset or offset by less property flow to the extent property has gotten a lot of price and the wind doesn't blow too tough in 2024, but any color would be helpful. Speaker 200:16:24Yes. I mean one thing to note is the growth rate actually has been relatively steady. Speaker 100:16:28So I think Speaker 200:16:29if you go back and read the commentary, it's been in that 20 low 20s range and slightly accelerated range. I think it just so happened there was a little more acceleration this quarter. That could just be volatility. I would agree that we are seeing, I think, continued casualty submission inflow, which is probably stemming from some of the reserve issues that some of the other competitors are having. So and you're right, Mike mentioned that the property market is more orderly, but we are still seeing a strong pull up submissions. Speaker 200:17:07It's just there's more capacity and it's just it's a little less distressed than it was last year. Speaker 500:17:18Okay. On your comments about your technology and how your technology is evolving, it could become more powerful. How would that translate into KPIs we see as investors? Would you potentially get more submissions or just be able to act more quicker on the submissions? Or do you feel like it would just allow you to price risk better or all of the above or any color would be great? Speaker 100:17:44Well, I think one of the Mike, this is Mike. One of the interesting things about technology is it impacts multiple areas of the business in a material way. So can it speed up customer service? Absolutely. Can it allow us to incorporate more 3rd party data in how we evaluate an individual risk and segment and price risk and drive a more accurate underwriting model? Speaker 100:18:11Absolutely. Can it help us increase the productivity of our workers and effectively lowering our expenses? Absolutely. Yes, I mean, it's for all these reasons and probably others, it's the reason we prioritize that the way we have over the years and continue to make an enormous commitment. I mean, I think about 20%, maybe slightly over 20% of our headcount is in our IT department. Speaker 100:18:47And I think that just anecdotally speaks to how important we think it is to our business model And having made technology a core competency of our business 15 years ago when we started the company alongside of underwriting and claim handling, I think it just puts us in a very interesting position today compared to a lot of companies in the industry that maybe aren't quite as far along. Speaker 500:19:16Okay. Got it. I feel like you've been talking about it a lot, but you I guess you haven't been willing to say it could kind of decouple your long term thoughts on growth because I know the company still expects growth over the long term to decline along with the marketplace. Lastly, just quickly on your commentary. So I believe you made the comments in your prepared remarks, Mike, that you added some reserves, some conservatism, which seems prudent in light of higher inflation levels. Speaker 500:19:54I don't know if am I understanding that correctly? When we see the statutory data, are we going to see some topping off of certain action years or anything you're trying to tell us there? Speaker 100:20:06Well, I was really speaking more toward a general management approach to the business, which is recognizing that ours is an uncertain business to some extent. There's all sorts of quantitative methods that we use to drive more certainty. But there is an element of uncertainty and we collect premiums upfront. We pay the claims over a number of years. And so I think it's just prudent to be as cautious as possible within reason in terms of setting aside dollars today to pay claims in the future. Speaker 100:20:44When inflation picked up, that wasn't really anticipated. I don't know by anybody, but certainly not by us. And so I do think that had a negative impact in the level of conservatism from a couple of those years. But I wasn't really speaking to anything specifically, but we're going to file our case soon and our stat statement soon thereafter. And there's a lot of very granular information that people can look at in terms of reserves by accident year and by statutory line of business. Speaker 500:21:22Okay. But just to be clear, I think in the past you said that every year it's developed favorably, or most of your year. So are you saying we might see something a little bit different like as many we'll see probably for many peers and when you file the K? Speaker 100:21:41Our 2011 year developed adversely. It was the 1st full year we were in business and the company was tiny. I think our ultimate I think our losses at the end of 2011 were 12,400,000 dollars and it's developed up to 15. So it's yes, we had one bad year, but in general, it's immaterial. The last several years, I think it was Brian and Haney made the comments about the fact that we've been getting rate increases ahead of loss cost trend. Speaker 100:22:09So again, these are the most conservatively reserved years in our company's history and it coincides with the market becoming a little bit tighter, if you will. Insurance companies having more pricing power. So in that favorable pricing environment, yes, we leaned into it and grew our business in a pretty dramatic fashion. But the reserves reflect the net of all this is I think our reserves are in a great spot. Speaker 500:22:42Okay, got it. Thanks for bearing with me. Thank you. Operator00:22:47We'll take our next question from Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open. Speaker 600:22:53Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, Mark. The expense ratio, quite good in the quarter, below 20%. Speaker 600:23:06With the mix of business you have now, I know you mentioned, Speaker 200:23:09I guess, the ceding commissions 120 bps Speaker 600:23:12in better acquisition costs. I assume that's the ceding commissions. Is 20% good bogey given the current mix, etcetera for 2024? Speaker 300:23:26Mark, I think that's consistent with what I said. I think looking at the expense ratio over the 12 month period probably gives you a very good indication of where we expect to be going forward. Speaker 600:23:41Yes. Was there anything else anything in the Q4 that was unusual? I hear what you're saying, but trying to recall whether the 4th quarter has some seasonality that makes it lower than the full year? Speaker 300:23:57No. I would say quarter to quarter, there's always going to be a little bit of variability, but there wasn't anything in particular to note in Q4. Speaker 600:24:08Understood. And then the ceded premiums, 22.5% is I assume that goes along with your property exposure if casualty maybe outgrows property a little bit in the coming periods, should that come down or what's some rough thoughts there? Speaker 100:24:33Yes, Mark, it's Mike. The mix of business is always going to impact that. We buy a little more reinsurance on the property side because some of the volatility that goes with certain accounts that are exposed to natural catastrophe, and we buy more reinsurance when we put up larger limits. So our excess casualty book, the primary policy is we typically keep net. Speaker 600:25:00Yes. And then Brian Haney, you talked about the accelerating submissions. Will that be accompanied by a little more pricing? Are you pushing a little bit more on the grade in this environment? Speaker 200:25:21It's not going to affect how we look at price. I mean, we are pushing pricing up, but that's less to do with the submission and flow and more to do with hitting kind of optimizing the wealth building. So we're taking into account all the market conditions and what the competitors are doing and coming up by line with where we're going to push rates. So going from 20% to low 20s to 25% would not affect how we rate the business. Speaker 600:25:53And then just a final question. The property is more orderly. Is it as attractive now? Pricing still seems like it's going up. And if it was attractive last quarter, it still is attractive now. Speaker 600:26:12How are you looking at your appetite for property given your current mix and the price levels? Speaker 200:26:20Well, I guess I would say this is Brian Haney. I would say that prices are still going up. So it's more attractive than it was last year when it was less orderly. So we still see a great opportunity in property. Speaker 600:26:38Excellent. Thank you. Operator00:26:46And we will take our next question from Andrew Anderson with Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 700:26:53Hey, good morning. Maybe going back to pricing and competitive positioning, trying to think about the underlying loss ratio into 24% and how I've been thinking about Kinsale over the past couple of years is you haven't had to compete much on pricing. And I suppose one way of looking at that is the down policy to issue quote ratio, which hasn't moved much. So it sounds like if you're not competing more in a relative position with pricing versus peers, we could still see flat underlying loss ratios into next year. Is that a fair way to think about the competitive market and underlying margins? Speaker 100:27:32Andrew, this is Mike. I would probably take issue with the idea that we don't compete on price. I mean, we buy in 10%, 12%. I think it varies a little bit by line of business, but we buy 10% or 12% of our new business quotes. Speaker 800:27:46And I Speaker 100:27:46would say price is the biggest driver. It's a huge concern to our customers. Clearly, the last few years have been a little bit more of seller's market. So that's given us the ability to raise rates and at the same time grow the top line at a really good clip. But you're not completely divorced from sensitivity around price. Speaker 100:28:14So it's still a competitive business in terms of where loss ratios could go from here. I mean, we don't really forecast that publicly, but if you take into account all the information we're providing, I think you can probably come up with a good guesstimate. Speaker 700:28:33Okay. And in the context of submission flows and maybe rate coming down a little bit in property from some industry data, just trying to get an idea of the average premium in property versus casualty. And if you were to lose some property business because of the pricing dynamic, does the casualty transaction flow overweight that because the average premium there would be higher? Speaker 200:28:59I would say the average premium for property depends on what sort of property we're talking about. Commercial property would have a relatively high average premium, but our small Speaker 300:29:11property team, Speaker 200:29:11our high value homeowners team and our personal insurance book all have relatively low average premiums. I don't I wouldn't anticipate a huge impact from I mean the market is becoming more orderly, but I don't think it's not a dramatic effect. It just explains why the property growth rate went from a very, very large number in Q4 of 2022 to a still large but less large number in the Q4 of 2023. Speaker 700:29:50Thank you. And Mike, maybe just one clarification. You mentioned Exaneer 2016 to 2019 favorable inception to date. Just want to be clear that is on both a consolidated basis, but also on a general liabilitycasualty basis as well. And it's not overall? Speaker 100:30:09It's on a consolidated basis. As you get down to I think we've got about a dozen statutory lines of business, You run into more variability because you got smaller numbers. But on a consolidated basis, we've got a really good track record of posting reserves in a conservative fashion that develop favorably over time. Speaker 700:30:31Yes. I guess I was trying to get at it's not benefiting from property outweighing casualty because you weren't really writing much casualty back then to begin with or property back then to begin with? Speaker 100:30:44Yes. It gets pretty complex though, Andrew, because property is a short tail line that develops pretty quickly. Some of our casualty business, I would I'm not an actuary, but I call it medium tail, right? It's kind of in the middle and then we write a lot of long tail casually. I think candidly, our book of business is a nice mix of short, medium and long. Speaker 100:31:09But in general, I would say the casualty business has performed well. We don't have one line of business for general liability. It's other liability occurrence, other liability claims made, products liability occurrence, products liability claims made. We may even track the excess separately from the primary. Speaker 800:31:30So again, I think Speaker 100:31:31that's a kind of complexity run amok for a conference call. But in general, I think the takeaway for investors is they should have a lot of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet. And the reason we're reiterating that is kind of to Brian's point earlier, because a lot of companies coming out saying, hey, we need to take a big charge because we didn't put enough away in past years. And we're trying to give our investors confidence that, hey, that's not coming here. Speaker 700:32:00Understood. Thank you. Operator00:32:03And we will take our next question from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Speaker 800:32:09Hi, thanks for squeezing me in. So first question maybe for Brian Heaney. I appreciate the disclosure and submission count growth, but I was hoping to get some perspective on how policies in force are growing. Just given that your book is more weighted to new business than others, would it be reasonable to assume PIF growth is in the same neighborhood con growth and if not, how much lower? Speaker 200:32:29I don't have those numbers off the top of my head. I think the one other way to look at it is if you look at our average premium, it's probably going up a bit. And then if you look at our premium growth and back out our average premium growth, that's going to give you Speaker 700:32:46a pretty good estimate of PIF growth. Speaker 100:32:47So I would probably say it's going up. It might be close to Speaker 200:32:51submission growth. I don't be guessing if I said anything. It's probably going somewhere between 20% 30%. Speaker 800:32:57Yes. Thanks. That makes sense. And then another one for you, Brian Haney. If we assume in sales loss costs increasing in the mid single digit neighborhood, right, and couple that with the 5% pricing metric you provided, would it be fair to assume nominal premiums are growing maybe high single digits assuming flat risk exposures? Speaker 200:33:16Yes. So the short answer. You've got the competing effects of the real rate, the premium trends. So we get with inflation being elevated, we do get more premium just by virtue prices of the underlying products going up and then the loss cost trend offsetting that. So yes, that's what you said was fair. Speaker 800:33:36Got it. And then third question for maybe for Brian Petrucelli. The 1.2 the 120 bps benefit from net commissions in 2024, Was that the full run rate or will there be some more of that in 2025? Speaker 300:33:50Again, I think that depends on, as Mike mentioned earlier, mix of business. But as that property book grows and becomes a larger percentage of the overall premium base and we are seeding off more of that business than we do on the casualty side. Speaker 100:34:10And it's probably important to remind people that even the business we see it away, we do get a seeding commission back, if you will, from the reinsurers that has some embedded profit in it for us. Speaker 800:34:29Yes. And then last for me, maybe for Mike or Brian Haney. I know this is something we'll see in the filing, but I was hoping you could provide a preview on the components of premium growth this quarter compared to the Q3, right? And I'm thinking specifically of the breakdown between property, which I think grew more than 80% in the 3rd quarter and cash flow to you, which grew about 20%. It seems like the growth rates for those lines are fairly consistent in Q4. Speaker 800:34:54Would you agree or disagree with that? Speaker 100:34:58Well, I mean property grew at a robust clip in the Q4. Casualty, as Brian said, was pretty steady, but very strong double digit growth. Speaker 200:35:10Transportation segment grew fairly well. Professional lines probably grew a little bit less than the rest of the book. So I think what you said was accurate. Speaker 800:35:21Okay. All right. Thank you for the answers. Speaker 100:35:25Thanks, Pablo. Operator00:35:28And we will take some follow-up questions from Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open. Speaker 600:35:34Yes, thank you. The current accident year losses ex cat were flat for the full year compared to 2022. Given what you see in terms of mix of business, loss cost trends, all of that? Is that a good starting point for 2024 understanding that you do have seasonality in that tends to be higher in the early part of the year and lower as the year progresses? Speaker 100:36:04Well, we don't forecast that, Mark. But if you said that's what you're going to do, I wouldn't I don't think we'd take issue with that. Speaker 500:36:15Fair enough. Thank you. Operator00:36:19And we will take follow-up questions from Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 500:36:27Hey, thanks. Real quick, I know you gave us some nuggets on the expense ratio pushes and pulls in the prepared remarks. So I guess we can just use that to think through the forward 24 numbers unless you wanted to kind of maybe hold our hands a little bit more and help us think through how much of is going to run rate into the coming quarters? Speaker 300:36:58Yes. I mean, I don't think we can say any more than we did. Speaker 100:37:03Look at the annual expense ratio. Yes. Take a Speaker 300:37:05look at the annual expense ratio and that should be a pretty good guide for you. Speaker 500:37:10Okay. That's all I had. Thank you. Helpful. Speaker 100:37:13Thanks, Mike. Operator00:37:15And we will take follow-up questions from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open. I Speaker 800:37:22thought I'd just throw in one more on reserves. So recognizing that the overall reserve position is good, maybe this one's for Mike. I think in the past you had call outs pressure in specific lines, if I remember correctly, it was I think construction, right? I was wondering if you could provide perspective on sort of where recognizing that the Revolt book is in a good spot, but are there lines of business or classes where you're probably more at risk than others? Speaker 100:37:49Well, what's unique to construction, Pablo, is the fact that it's one of our longer tail lines of business. Specifically, a component of the construction business, which we call construction defect, They're typically water intrusion claims. Sometimes the water intrusion is so slow that the property owner isn't even aware of it for a number of years. And by the time it's discovered, it could be an extensive renovation, dollars 1,000,000 claim. And those claims can come in late, 5, 7, 9 years later sometimes. Speaker 100:38:26California, I think, has a 10 year statute of repose. I think Colorado, maybe like 7 years. Other states like Virginia, I think it's 1 year. So it varies a little bit depending on where you are. But the long tail nature of that business combined with I think we hit 9% inflation a couple of years ago. Speaker 100:38:47That inflation hit labor costs. It hit building supply costs. So there was definitely an impact on the construction book at Kinsale. Does that answer your question? Speaker 800:39:05Yes. And I was wondering aside from construction, are there any other lines or class where you sort of see not major issues, but sort of these like, I guess, latent issues emerging? Or is construction sort of like top of mind for you and the rest of the lines are broadly okay? Speaker 100:39:24Yes. I would say construction is probably the most material it's a big part of our business. So that kind of stands out to me. I mean, in general, our book of business is performing at a really attractive level. That's why we're publishing these kind of results, not just in the Q4, but for the last several years. Speaker 100:39:49Those results are a reflection of a high performing business even in the face of a lot of conservatism in the reserving. And so even the construction business is generating a healthy return for us. It's just that some of those claims have developed a little bit later than maybe we originally anticipated. Speaker 800:40:11Okay. Yes, that makes sense, Mike. Thank you. Speaker 100:40:13Okay. Operator00:40:16And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Michael Kehoe for closing remarks. Speaker 100:40:23Okay. Well, thank you, operator, and thanks everybody for joining us today. And we look forward to speaking with everybody again here very soon. Have a great day. Operator00:40:34Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call and we thank you for your participation.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallKinsale Capital Group Q4 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsPress Release(8-K)Annual report(10-K) Kinsale Capital Group Earnings HeadlinesKinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Receives a Buy from Morgan StanleyApril 12 at 8:03 PM | markets.businessinsider.comKinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Gets a Hold from JefferiesApril 12 at 8:03 PM | markets.businessinsider.comTrump to unlock 15-figure fortune for America (May 3rd) ?We were shown this map by former Presidential Advisor, Jim Rickards, one of the most politically connected men in America. Rickards has spent his fifty-year career in the innermost circles of the U.S. government and banking. And he believes Trump could soon release this frozen asset to the public. April 15, 2025 | Paradigm Press (Ad)Kinsale Capital Group Announces First Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference CallApril 3, 2025 | gurufocus.comKinsale Capital Group Announces First Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference CallApril 3, 2025 | businesswire.comUnitedHealth Group, PG&E And A Financial Stock On CNBC's 'Final Trades'April 2, 2025 | benzinga.comSee More Kinsale Capital Group Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Kinsale Capital Group? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Kinsale Capital Group and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Kinsale Capital GroupKinsale Capital Group (NYSE:KNSL), a specialty insurance company, engages in the provision of property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's commercial lines offerings include commercial property, small business casualty and property, excess and general casualty, construction, allied health, life sciences, entertainment, energy, environmental, excess professional, health care, public entity, commercial auto, inland marine, aviation, ocean marine, product recall, and railroad, as well as product, professional, and management liability insurance. It markets and sells its insurance products in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands primarily through a network of independent insurance brokers. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.View Kinsale Capital Group ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles Why Analysts Boosted United Airlines Stock Ahead of EarningsLamb Weston Stock Rises, Earnings Provide Calm Amidst ChaosIntuitive Machines Gains After Earnings Beat, NASA Missions AheadCintas Delivers Earnings Beat, Signals More Growth AheadNike Stock Dips on Earnings: Analysts Weigh in on What’s NextAfter Massive Post Earnings Fall, Does Hope Remain for MongoDB?Semtech Rallies on Earnings Beat—Is There More Upside? 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There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the 4th Quarter 2023 Kinsale Capital Group Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. Operator00:00:36These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2022 annual report on form 10 ks, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has a Form 8 ks with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its 4th quarter results. Kinsale's management may also reference certain non GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available on the company's website atwww.kinsalecapitalgroup.com. I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's President and CEO, Mr. Operator00:01:23Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir. Speaker 100:01:25Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Brian Petrucelli, our CFO and Brian Haney, our President and COO, and I will each offer a few remarks, and then we'll move on to any questions you may have. In the Q4 of 2023, Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 49% and gross written premium grew by 33.8% over the Q4 2022. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 72.1% and posted an operating ROE of 31.8% for the full year 2023. The company's strategy of disciplined E and S underwriting and technology enabled low costs drive these results and allows us to take market share from competitors at the same time. Speaker 100:02:22Specifically for those newer to the company, Kinsale focuses exclusively on the E and S market, on writing smaller accounts. We provide our brokers with the broadest risk appetite and the best customer service in the business, and we use our low expense ratio to offer our customers competitively priced insurance while also delivering best in class margins to our stockholders. Since much of this expense advantage is predicated on our advanced systems and our team of world class technology professionals, we believe the competitive advantage of our technology model not only has durability to it, but has the potential to become even more powerful in the years ahead. As we have noted over the last several years, the E and S market continues to benefit from the inflow of business from standard companies and from rate increases driven by inflation and relatively tight underwriting conditions. Our growth in the 4th quarter was similar to the 3rd and was largely consistent with the industry commentary about the property market becoming more orderly. Speaker 100:03:35We continue to be optimistic about growth in 2024. Finally, a reminder about our reserving process and approach. We collect premiums upfront and pay claims out over the subsequent several years. Accordingly, we post reserves now for claims we will have to pay in the future. We deliberately set those reserves in a conservative fashion. Speaker 100:03:59We set aside more than we think we will need to allow for some uncertainty in the process, the possibility of a changing towards system and the uptick of inflation we have experienced more Speaker 200:04:13recently in Speaker 100:04:13the last couple of years. Our 2016 through 2019 accident years have developed favorably on an inception to date basis, but the level of conservatism in those years has been partially eroded by inflation. Subsequent to 2019, we have benefited from very significant rate increases above the loss cost trend and we have used some of that additional rate to add to the level of conservatism in our reserves. Investors should have a high level of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet as we expect overall reserves to continue to develop favorably in the years ahead. And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Brian Petrucelli. Speaker 300:04:59Thanks, Mike. Another solid quarter with 33.8% growth in written premium, very low cat activity and net income and net operating earnings increasing by 53.7% and 49.6 percent respectively. The 72.1% combined ratio for the quarter included 2.3 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 3.2 points last year and negligible cat losses in either period. The expense ratio continues to benefit from higher ceding commissions from the company's casualty and commercial property proportional reinsurance agreements as a result of growth in both of those lines of business. The expense ratio can bounce around a bit from quarter to quarter, so we believe it's best to evaluate the components of the expense ratio over a 12 month period. Speaker 300:05:56For the year, we noted that the expense ratio decreased by 1.4 points from 22.2% in 2022 to 20.8% this year. Breaking this decrease down a little further, 1.2 points came from net commissions with the remaining 0.2 point from other underwriting expenses. On the investment side, net investment income increased by 71.2% over the Q4 last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio generated from strong operating cash flows and higher interest rates with a gross return of 4% for the year compared to 3% last year. We're continuing to invest new money and shorter duration securities with new money yields averaging in the low to mid 5% range and duration decreased to 2.8 years down from 3.5 years at the end of last year. And lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $3.87 per share for the quarter compared to $2.60 per share last year. Speaker 300:07:06And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney. Speaker 200:07:08Thanks, Brian. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 34% in the 4th quarter and 42% for the year. We continue to see growth across our book of business with particularly strong growth in our property divisions along with entertainment, general casualty, excess casualty and commercial auto divisions. Submission growth continues to be strong and actually experienced a bit of an acceleration to the mid-20s for the quarter. This number is subject to some variability, but in general we view submissions as a leading indicator of growth. Speaker 200:07:39So we see the submission growth rate as a positive signal. We sell a wide array of products and the rates in those products don't move up in lockstep, but if we boil it down to one number, we see real rates being up around 5%. Pleased in that we've been increasing rates above loss cost trend for several years now. And it's also important to stress that our rate change and rate adequacy are 2 different things as our results demonstrate our rates are more than adequate. We're continually reviewing our rates, adjusting them based on a number of considerations such as our target return on equity, the market opportunity and shifts in the competition. Speaker 200:08:15But in any event, we feel that business we're putting on the books today is the most adequately priced business we've seen in our history. Another thing I'd like to note, we've seen in industry commentary a trend that some companies are seeing generally favorable development on workers' comp that's offsetting to some extent adverse development in general liability. Just as a reminder, Kinsale doesn't write any workers' comp and general liability represents the largest share of our reserves. So when you see Kinsale having favorable development, you should know that this is a result of diligently staying ahead of the trends in the general liability market and it does differentiate us somewhat in the industry. That being said, the notable industry trend of weakness in general liability reserves bodes well for us and may serve to prolong the favorable market conditions. Speaker 200:09:01Finally, inflation has moderated somewhat from its highs, but getting the inflation rate to the Fed's target has proven to be a much longer effort than many prognosticators and forecast. The longer the elevated inflation persists, the more pressure the industry will see on reserves, particularly on longer tail lines. We are dedicated to staying vigilant about this so that we may continue to have reserves that are more likely to develop favorably than adversely. Overall, once again, a good quarter, and we're really happy with the results. And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike. Speaker 100:09:31Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're ready for any questions in the queue. Operator00:09:37Thank And we will take our first question from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Speaker 400:10:04Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on your comments about the conservatism implicit in your reserving. I was hoping you could offer a little bit more color on the loss emergence trends that you're seeing from those that sort of 2019 and prior accident year period, particularly in this environment where as you described some carriers are experiencing adverse development. And along those lines are latency effects associated with court closures during COVID resulting in tail elongation. Speaker 400:10:35Just curious whether how much that remains in focus? Speaker 100:10:40Bill, this is Mike. In general, I would say that there was some disruption with regard to the pandemic. It varies dramatically by accident year and by line of business. I mean, there's a level of complexity there that think would preclude us from getting into too much detail on a conference call. But in general, I would say that Kinsale has done a good job over our this is our 15th accident year in business. Speaker 100:11:17And I think we've done a really good job in setting aside conservative reserves, not every single year, but effectively, I think, 13 of the 14 prior years have developed favorably on an inception to date basis. So hopefully investors look at that track record of conservatism. As we just talked about, we've been adding, raising our rates ahead of loss cost trend for a number of years in a row now. And that's given us the opportunity to add even more conservatism. I think the conservatism is warranted with the uptick in inflation in general, but changes in tort law and social inflation, etcetera. Speaker 100:12:01I mean, there's all sorts of reasons for caution. And I just think it's important for our investors to understand that Kinsale is very proactive and very conservative in setting aside reserves today to pay clients in the future. Speaker 400:12:19That's helpful, Mike. Thank you. And I understand you're probably limited in what you can say about that court judgment described in the 8 ks that you filed at the end of last year. But following the thought process that you just described at a high level as we sort of think about social inflation pressures and the risk that those could prove more pervasive in coming years than might have been contemplated at the time that the business was written. You feel like the conservatism that you contemplated from the outset sort of protects you from that dynamic? Speaker 100:12:56Yes. In a nutshell, yes. I would say, we can't get into talking about that specific claim because it's active litigation. But we said in the 8 ks, we didn't think it would have a material adverse effect. Adequate provision has been made in the consolidated financial statements and existing reserves to account for any liability of the company related to claims such as this legal proceeding. Speaker 100:13:24I would say in general, there's been a lot of commentary over the last couple of years about social inflation. Some of that probably picks up this concept of nuclear verdicts and there has been a dramatic uptick. Kinsale is an E and S company. I mean, we make frequent use of coverage limitations to help us control our exposure to loss. We also tend to focus on smaller accounts, which probably insulates us a little bit. Speaker 100:13:55And I think we run a very disciplined underwriting operation. We've got really good systems, which translates into robust data to manage profitability. So it's something that creates, I think, a challenge for the industry. But I think Kinsale is very good at staying ahead of changes in the torque system. And when you add to that the conservatism and how we approach reserving, again, I think investors should have a lot of confidence in the consailed balance sheet. Speaker 400:14:31Understood. That's really helpful, Mike. Thank you. If I could squeeze in one last one. Are you considering for Brian, are you considering extending duration as the debate around the timing of Fed cuts continues? Speaker 400:14:43And maybe you could just frame how investors should be thinking about potential downside risk to earnings from a lower rate environment broadly? Yes. Speaker 300:14:56I mean we certainly are keep up with what's going on from an interest rate perspective and an inflation perspective. I think in the near term, we're probably going to continue to invest in that 3 year timeframe. But hey, it's something we look at every month and every quarter and working with our investment teams to ensure that we're taking being opportunistic, but being aware of rollover risk and what have you. Speaker 400:15:28Very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions. Speaker 100:15:31Thanks, Bill. Operator00:15:33And we will take our next question from Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 500:15:41Hey, good morning. Maybe we can just start on, you mentioned this submissions increased a bit into the mid-20s. I know there's some variability you cited on that, but any color there? I feel like insurance investors have been grappling with a potential uptick in flow on the casualty side given social inflationary pressures impacting everyone kind of maybe more than offset or offset by less property flow to the extent property has gotten a lot of price and the wind doesn't blow too tough in 2024, but any color would be helpful. Speaker 200:16:24Yes. I mean one thing to note is the growth rate actually has been relatively steady. Speaker 100:16:28So I think Speaker 200:16:29if you go back and read the commentary, it's been in that 20 low 20s range and slightly accelerated range. I think it just so happened there was a little more acceleration this quarter. That could just be volatility. I would agree that we are seeing, I think, continued casualty submission inflow, which is probably stemming from some of the reserve issues that some of the other competitors are having. So and you're right, Mike mentioned that the property market is more orderly, but we are still seeing a strong pull up submissions. Speaker 200:17:07It's just there's more capacity and it's just it's a little less distressed than it was last year. Speaker 500:17:18Okay. On your comments about your technology and how your technology is evolving, it could become more powerful. How would that translate into KPIs we see as investors? Would you potentially get more submissions or just be able to act more quicker on the submissions? Or do you feel like it would just allow you to price risk better or all of the above or any color would be great? Speaker 100:17:44Well, I think one of the Mike, this is Mike. One of the interesting things about technology is it impacts multiple areas of the business in a material way. So can it speed up customer service? Absolutely. Can it allow us to incorporate more 3rd party data in how we evaluate an individual risk and segment and price risk and drive a more accurate underwriting model? Speaker 100:18:11Absolutely. Can it help us increase the productivity of our workers and effectively lowering our expenses? Absolutely. Yes, I mean, it's for all these reasons and probably others, it's the reason we prioritize that the way we have over the years and continue to make an enormous commitment. I mean, I think about 20%, maybe slightly over 20% of our headcount is in our IT department. Speaker 100:18:47And I think that just anecdotally speaks to how important we think it is to our business model And having made technology a core competency of our business 15 years ago when we started the company alongside of underwriting and claim handling, I think it just puts us in a very interesting position today compared to a lot of companies in the industry that maybe aren't quite as far along. Speaker 500:19:16Okay. Got it. I feel like you've been talking about it a lot, but you I guess you haven't been willing to say it could kind of decouple your long term thoughts on growth because I know the company still expects growth over the long term to decline along with the marketplace. Lastly, just quickly on your commentary. So I believe you made the comments in your prepared remarks, Mike, that you added some reserves, some conservatism, which seems prudent in light of higher inflation levels. Speaker 500:19:54I don't know if am I understanding that correctly? When we see the statutory data, are we going to see some topping off of certain action years or anything you're trying to tell us there? Speaker 100:20:06Well, I was really speaking more toward a general management approach to the business, which is recognizing that ours is an uncertain business to some extent. There's all sorts of quantitative methods that we use to drive more certainty. But there is an element of uncertainty and we collect premiums upfront. We pay the claims over a number of years. And so I think it's just prudent to be as cautious as possible within reason in terms of setting aside dollars today to pay claims in the future. Speaker 100:20:44When inflation picked up, that wasn't really anticipated. I don't know by anybody, but certainly not by us. And so I do think that had a negative impact in the level of conservatism from a couple of those years. But I wasn't really speaking to anything specifically, but we're going to file our case soon and our stat statement soon thereafter. And there's a lot of very granular information that people can look at in terms of reserves by accident year and by statutory line of business. Speaker 500:21:22Okay. But just to be clear, I think in the past you said that every year it's developed favorably, or most of your year. So are you saying we might see something a little bit different like as many we'll see probably for many peers and when you file the K? Speaker 100:21:41Our 2011 year developed adversely. It was the 1st full year we were in business and the company was tiny. I think our ultimate I think our losses at the end of 2011 were 12,400,000 dollars and it's developed up to 15. So it's yes, we had one bad year, but in general, it's immaterial. The last several years, I think it was Brian and Haney made the comments about the fact that we've been getting rate increases ahead of loss cost trend. Speaker 100:22:09So again, these are the most conservatively reserved years in our company's history and it coincides with the market becoming a little bit tighter, if you will. Insurance companies having more pricing power. So in that favorable pricing environment, yes, we leaned into it and grew our business in a pretty dramatic fashion. But the reserves reflect the net of all this is I think our reserves are in a great spot. Speaker 500:22:42Okay, got it. Thanks for bearing with me. Thank you. Operator00:22:47We'll take our next question from Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open. Speaker 600:22:53Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, Mark. The expense ratio, quite good in the quarter, below 20%. Speaker 600:23:06With the mix of business you have now, I know you mentioned, Speaker 200:23:09I guess, the ceding commissions 120 bps Speaker 600:23:12in better acquisition costs. I assume that's the ceding commissions. Is 20% good bogey given the current mix, etcetera for 2024? Speaker 300:23:26Mark, I think that's consistent with what I said. I think looking at the expense ratio over the 12 month period probably gives you a very good indication of where we expect to be going forward. Speaker 600:23:41Yes. Was there anything else anything in the Q4 that was unusual? I hear what you're saying, but trying to recall whether the 4th quarter has some seasonality that makes it lower than the full year? Speaker 300:23:57No. I would say quarter to quarter, there's always going to be a little bit of variability, but there wasn't anything in particular to note in Q4. Speaker 600:24:08Understood. And then the ceded premiums, 22.5% is I assume that goes along with your property exposure if casualty maybe outgrows property a little bit in the coming periods, should that come down or what's some rough thoughts there? Speaker 100:24:33Yes, Mark, it's Mike. The mix of business is always going to impact that. We buy a little more reinsurance on the property side because some of the volatility that goes with certain accounts that are exposed to natural catastrophe, and we buy more reinsurance when we put up larger limits. So our excess casualty book, the primary policy is we typically keep net. Speaker 600:25:00Yes. And then Brian Haney, you talked about the accelerating submissions. Will that be accompanied by a little more pricing? Are you pushing a little bit more on the grade in this environment? Speaker 200:25:21It's not going to affect how we look at price. I mean, we are pushing pricing up, but that's less to do with the submission and flow and more to do with hitting kind of optimizing the wealth building. So we're taking into account all the market conditions and what the competitors are doing and coming up by line with where we're going to push rates. So going from 20% to low 20s to 25% would not affect how we rate the business. Speaker 600:25:53And then just a final question. The property is more orderly. Is it as attractive now? Pricing still seems like it's going up. And if it was attractive last quarter, it still is attractive now. Speaker 600:26:12How are you looking at your appetite for property given your current mix and the price levels? Speaker 200:26:20Well, I guess I would say this is Brian Haney. I would say that prices are still going up. So it's more attractive than it was last year when it was less orderly. So we still see a great opportunity in property. Speaker 600:26:38Excellent. Thank you. Operator00:26:46And we will take our next question from Andrew Anderson with Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 700:26:53Hey, good morning. Maybe going back to pricing and competitive positioning, trying to think about the underlying loss ratio into 24% and how I've been thinking about Kinsale over the past couple of years is you haven't had to compete much on pricing. And I suppose one way of looking at that is the down policy to issue quote ratio, which hasn't moved much. So it sounds like if you're not competing more in a relative position with pricing versus peers, we could still see flat underlying loss ratios into next year. Is that a fair way to think about the competitive market and underlying margins? Speaker 100:27:32Andrew, this is Mike. I would probably take issue with the idea that we don't compete on price. I mean, we buy in 10%, 12%. I think it varies a little bit by line of business, but we buy 10% or 12% of our new business quotes. Speaker 800:27:46And I Speaker 100:27:46would say price is the biggest driver. It's a huge concern to our customers. Clearly, the last few years have been a little bit more of seller's market. So that's given us the ability to raise rates and at the same time grow the top line at a really good clip. But you're not completely divorced from sensitivity around price. Speaker 100:28:14So it's still a competitive business in terms of where loss ratios could go from here. I mean, we don't really forecast that publicly, but if you take into account all the information we're providing, I think you can probably come up with a good guesstimate. Speaker 700:28:33Okay. And in the context of submission flows and maybe rate coming down a little bit in property from some industry data, just trying to get an idea of the average premium in property versus casualty. And if you were to lose some property business because of the pricing dynamic, does the casualty transaction flow overweight that because the average premium there would be higher? Speaker 200:28:59I would say the average premium for property depends on what sort of property we're talking about. Commercial property would have a relatively high average premium, but our small Speaker 300:29:11property team, Speaker 200:29:11our high value homeowners team and our personal insurance book all have relatively low average premiums. I don't I wouldn't anticipate a huge impact from I mean the market is becoming more orderly, but I don't think it's not a dramatic effect. It just explains why the property growth rate went from a very, very large number in Q4 of 2022 to a still large but less large number in the Q4 of 2023. Speaker 700:29:50Thank you. And Mike, maybe just one clarification. You mentioned Exaneer 2016 to 2019 favorable inception to date. Just want to be clear that is on both a consolidated basis, but also on a general liabilitycasualty basis as well. And it's not overall? Speaker 100:30:09It's on a consolidated basis. As you get down to I think we've got about a dozen statutory lines of business, You run into more variability because you got smaller numbers. But on a consolidated basis, we've got a really good track record of posting reserves in a conservative fashion that develop favorably over time. Speaker 700:30:31Yes. I guess I was trying to get at it's not benefiting from property outweighing casualty because you weren't really writing much casualty back then to begin with or property back then to begin with? Speaker 100:30:44Yes. It gets pretty complex though, Andrew, because property is a short tail line that develops pretty quickly. Some of our casualty business, I would I'm not an actuary, but I call it medium tail, right? It's kind of in the middle and then we write a lot of long tail casually. I think candidly, our book of business is a nice mix of short, medium and long. Speaker 100:31:09But in general, I would say the casualty business has performed well. We don't have one line of business for general liability. It's other liability occurrence, other liability claims made, products liability occurrence, products liability claims made. We may even track the excess separately from the primary. Speaker 800:31:30So again, I think Speaker 100:31:31that's a kind of complexity run amok for a conference call. But in general, I think the takeaway for investors is they should have a lot of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet. And the reason we're reiterating that is kind of to Brian's point earlier, because a lot of companies coming out saying, hey, we need to take a big charge because we didn't put enough away in past years. And we're trying to give our investors confidence that, hey, that's not coming here. Speaker 700:32:00Understood. Thank you. Operator00:32:03And we will take our next question from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Speaker 800:32:09Hi, thanks for squeezing me in. So first question maybe for Brian Heaney. I appreciate the disclosure and submission count growth, but I was hoping to get some perspective on how policies in force are growing. Just given that your book is more weighted to new business than others, would it be reasonable to assume PIF growth is in the same neighborhood con growth and if not, how much lower? Speaker 200:32:29I don't have those numbers off the top of my head. I think the one other way to look at it is if you look at our average premium, it's probably going up a bit. And then if you look at our premium growth and back out our average premium growth, that's going to give you Speaker 700:32:46a pretty good estimate of PIF growth. Speaker 100:32:47So I would probably say it's going up. It might be close to Speaker 200:32:51submission growth. I don't be guessing if I said anything. It's probably going somewhere between 20% 30%. Speaker 800:32:57Yes. Thanks. That makes sense. And then another one for you, Brian Haney. If we assume in sales loss costs increasing in the mid single digit neighborhood, right, and couple that with the 5% pricing metric you provided, would it be fair to assume nominal premiums are growing maybe high single digits assuming flat risk exposures? Speaker 200:33:16Yes. So the short answer. You've got the competing effects of the real rate, the premium trends. So we get with inflation being elevated, we do get more premium just by virtue prices of the underlying products going up and then the loss cost trend offsetting that. So yes, that's what you said was fair. Speaker 800:33:36Got it. And then third question for maybe for Brian Petrucelli. The 1.2 the 120 bps benefit from net commissions in 2024, Was that the full run rate or will there be some more of that in 2025? Speaker 300:33:50Again, I think that depends on, as Mike mentioned earlier, mix of business. But as that property book grows and becomes a larger percentage of the overall premium base and we are seeding off more of that business than we do on the casualty side. Speaker 100:34:10And it's probably important to remind people that even the business we see it away, we do get a seeding commission back, if you will, from the reinsurers that has some embedded profit in it for us. Speaker 800:34:29Yes. And then last for me, maybe for Mike or Brian Haney. I know this is something we'll see in the filing, but I was hoping you could provide a preview on the components of premium growth this quarter compared to the Q3, right? And I'm thinking specifically of the breakdown between property, which I think grew more than 80% in the 3rd quarter and cash flow to you, which grew about 20%. It seems like the growth rates for those lines are fairly consistent in Q4. Speaker 800:34:54Would you agree or disagree with that? Speaker 100:34:58Well, I mean property grew at a robust clip in the Q4. Casualty, as Brian said, was pretty steady, but very strong double digit growth. Speaker 200:35:10Transportation segment grew fairly well. Professional lines probably grew a little bit less than the rest of the book. So I think what you said was accurate. Speaker 800:35:21Okay. All right. Thank you for the answers. Speaker 100:35:25Thanks, Pablo. Operator00:35:28And we will take some follow-up questions from Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open. Speaker 600:35:34Yes, thank you. The current accident year losses ex cat were flat for the full year compared to 2022. Given what you see in terms of mix of business, loss cost trends, all of that? Is that a good starting point for 2024 understanding that you do have seasonality in that tends to be higher in the early part of the year and lower as the year progresses? Speaker 100:36:04Well, we don't forecast that, Mark. But if you said that's what you're going to do, I wouldn't I don't think we'd take issue with that. Speaker 500:36:15Fair enough. Thank you. Operator00:36:19And we will take follow-up questions from Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open. Speaker 500:36:27Hey, thanks. Real quick, I know you gave us some nuggets on the expense ratio pushes and pulls in the prepared remarks. So I guess we can just use that to think through the forward 24 numbers unless you wanted to kind of maybe hold our hands a little bit more and help us think through how much of is going to run rate into the coming quarters? Speaker 300:36:58Yes. I mean, I don't think we can say any more than we did. Speaker 100:37:03Look at the annual expense ratio. Yes. Take a Speaker 300:37:05look at the annual expense ratio and that should be a pretty good guide for you. Speaker 500:37:10Okay. That's all I had. Thank you. Helpful. Speaker 100:37:13Thanks, Mike. Operator00:37:15And we will take follow-up questions from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open. I Speaker 800:37:22thought I'd just throw in one more on reserves. So recognizing that the overall reserve position is good, maybe this one's for Mike. I think in the past you had call outs pressure in specific lines, if I remember correctly, it was I think construction, right? I was wondering if you could provide perspective on sort of where recognizing that the Revolt book is in a good spot, but are there lines of business or classes where you're probably more at risk than others? Speaker 100:37:49Well, what's unique to construction, Pablo, is the fact that it's one of our longer tail lines of business. Specifically, a component of the construction business, which we call construction defect, They're typically water intrusion claims. Sometimes the water intrusion is so slow that the property owner isn't even aware of it for a number of years. And by the time it's discovered, it could be an extensive renovation, dollars 1,000,000 claim. And those claims can come in late, 5, 7, 9 years later sometimes. Speaker 100:38:26California, I think, has a 10 year statute of repose. I think Colorado, maybe like 7 years. Other states like Virginia, I think it's 1 year. So it varies a little bit depending on where you are. But the long tail nature of that business combined with I think we hit 9% inflation a couple of years ago. Speaker 100:38:47That inflation hit labor costs. It hit building supply costs. So there was definitely an impact on the construction book at Kinsale. Does that answer your question? Speaker 800:39:05Yes. And I was wondering aside from construction, are there any other lines or class where you sort of see not major issues, but sort of these like, I guess, latent issues emerging? Or is construction sort of like top of mind for you and the rest of the lines are broadly okay? Speaker 100:39:24Yes. I would say construction is probably the most material it's a big part of our business. So that kind of stands out to me. I mean, in general, our book of business is performing at a really attractive level. That's why we're publishing these kind of results, not just in the Q4, but for the last several years. Speaker 100:39:49Those results are a reflection of a high performing business even in the face of a lot of conservatism in the reserving. And so even the construction business is generating a healthy return for us. It's just that some of those claims have developed a little bit later than maybe we originally anticipated. Speaker 800:40:11Okay. Yes, that makes sense, Mike. Thank you. Speaker 100:40:13Okay. Operator00:40:16And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Michael Kehoe for closing remarks. Speaker 100:40:23Okay. Well, thank you, operator, and thanks everybody for joining us today. And we look forward to speaking with everybody again here very soon. Have a great day. Operator00:40:34Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call and we thank you for your participation.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by