Bristol-Myers Squibb Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 2, 2024

There are 23 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Bristol Myers Squibb 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tim Power, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us this morning for our Q4 2023 earnings call. Joining me this morning with prepared remarks are Chris Berner, our Chief Executive Officer and David Elkins, our Chief Financial Officer. Also participating in today's call are Adam Linkowski, our Chief Commercialization Officer and Sumit Herawat, our Chief Medical Officer and Head of Global Drug Development. As you'll note, we've posted slides to bms.com that you can use to follow along with for Chris and David's remarks.

Speaker 1

Before we get started, I'll read our forward looking statement. During this call, we will make statements about the company's future plans and prospects that constitute forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward looking statements as a result Various important factors, including those discussed in the company's SEC filings. These forward looking statements represent our estimates as of today It should not be relied upon as representing our estimates as of any future date. We specifically disclaim any obligation to update forward looking statements even if our estimates change.

Speaker 1

We'll also focus our comments on our non GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted to exclude certain specified items. Reconciliations of certain non GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are available at bms.com. And with that, I'll hand it over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tim, and good morning to all of you. I'm very pleased to be speaking to you on our earnings call for the first time as CEO, and I'm excited about the opportunity for our company to continue to deliver Transformational medicines for patients. Please turn to Slide 4. Q4 2023 Was a good quarter, including strong sales momentum in our in line and new product portfolio with 9% growth and nearly $10,000,000,000 in revenue, With growth across multiple key brands including Eliquis, Opdivo, Reblazil, Opdulag, Briyonzi, Chemsios and Sotik2. We also continued to generate significant cash flows from operations of $4,300,000,000 in the quarter.

Speaker 2

And as you'll hear from David in a few minutes, we expect to grow our business this year. During the Q4, we also achieved important pipeline milestones and several key business development transactions to strengthen our growth profile. This is an important time for BMS. I know that many of you are focused on our strategy to navigate the decade and on the importance of disciplined execution at the company. We are writing the next chapter for BMS, and with that comes an opportunity for change.

Speaker 2

So let me take a few minutes To tell you about our strategy to navigate our LOEs and be very clear about my focus on execution. Let's go to slide 5 and how we see the company today. When we look at our business, it's comprised of 2 portfolios. First, we see a legacy portfolio of well established products facing headwinds such as IRA. Though this portfolio is declining, it is expected to continue to generate strong cash flows to enable investment in our future growth drivers.

Speaker 2

2nd, we see an expanding portfolio of growth products, many of which are relatively newer to the market and have significant Expansion potential.

Speaker 3

When you

Speaker 2

look at these portfolios combined with our exciting pipeline, you can see how it all comes together as depicted on Slide As we think about this decade, we see 3 distinct periods: a near term growth period, a transition period And potential for sustainable top tier growth, which we plan to drive in the back end of the decade. Between now and the middle of the decade, our focus will be on maximizing the opportunity we have with our growth portfolio. This, Along with pipeline execution, can best position the company into the transition period. Then starting around 2026, our exposure is most acute And our focus will be on shortening the transition period as much as possible by accelerating our R and D programs, executing on product approvals and launches, while maintaining P and L discipline. Finally, in the latter part of the decade around 2028 and beyond, We plan to deliver sustainable top tier growth and we have the portfolio, pipeline and financial flexibility to support this opportunity.

Speaker 2

Many of you recognize the first two periods. However, the late decade return to growth phase is less appreciated externally, including a number of important products that are not Fully appreciated and consensus models today. What supports our confidence is our expanding pipeline, recent deals and newly launched products. Our strategy is to minimize the transition period coming in a few years, while maximizing our growth in the back part of the decade. Turning to slide 7.

Speaker 2

My confidence in our strategy is supported by the fact that compared with other companies that successfully navigated similar periods, We have some clear strengths: an expanding growth portfolio across multiple therapeutic areas an exciting pipeline differentiated platforms and continued financial strength to further invest for growth with business development. And the momentum from our most recent quarter to capitalize on these strengths is clear from Slide 8. In October, We told you we would strengthen commercial performance, and during Q4, we've been making progress. We have increased investment behind Key growth brands such as Kamsios and Sotik II. We are reaccelerating growth for REBLISIL by capitalizing on the launch of the COMMANDS indication in first line MDS.

Speaker 2

Our efforts to further establish Optulag as the standard of care in first line melanoma are driving further growth. And we have made progress expanding capacity for cell therapies, particularly setting up Briyonzi For significant expansion this year. In R and D, we delivered important milestones, including Recharging our early stage pipeline with 10 INDs, as we told you we would do at our R and D Day delivering the approval of Octyro In first line ROS positive lung cancer and advancing our key platforms including initiating our CD19 NEXTT study in multiple sclerosis For our cell therapy program and showing early but important Phase 1 data for the ARLDD prostate asset from our targeted protein degradation platform. Importantly, we've been active in business development. Specifically, We further diversified our oncology portfolio with targeted oncology assets such as CRISATI and PRMT V From the recently completed Mirati acquisition, the planned addition of a differentiated bispecific ADC from SystemMune With exciting Phase 1 data across tumors, including lung and breast cancers and the planned acquisition of Raised Bio, bringing important radiopharmaceutical assets, pipeline and manufacturing capabilities.

Speaker 2

And we announced the planned acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics, Bringing CAR XT, which we believe will be a transformational medicine for patients with schizophrenia, Alzheimer's psychosis And potentially other indications with multibillion dollar sales potential. We are looking forward to launching this medicine after closing the transaction later this year. These deals add important growth substrate to our company and diversify our portfolio for the long term. Let's turn to slide 9. Execution for me is a top priority, starting with Commercial.

Speaker 2

The focus is on continuing to accelerate performance for key growth drivers. This means ensuring the right resourcing and investment levels across our most important brands, and it means having the best people and driving accountability for delivering results. In R and D, building on the momentum I described coming out of last quarter, as we highlighted at our R and D Day, we have a strong pipeline With the potential to deliver over 16 NMEs through the late 2020s. And here we need to accelerate and deliver top Tier productivity. We are also taking a hard look at our pipeline to prioritize investments for projects With higher return opportunities and discontinuing lower priority programs and our OpEx base.

Speaker 2

As we told you, we are going to absorb the OpEx from Karuna. This means we need to make room for these assets by focusing our OpEx base to increase efficiency and productivity. We have begun executing across all three fronts and look forward to updating you on our progress in future quarters. We plan to grow our business this year as shown on Slide 10. David will provide much more detail on our guidance in a few minutes.

Speaker 2

But what's important from my perspective is that getting our long term plan to work requires us to deliver well in the short A few weeks ago, I reaffirmed our long term targets as of that date. At that time, I also said We were going back to our historical practice of providing mainly annual guidance with total company rather than product level revenue targets. Therefore, we will not be updating those long term targets moving forward. With that in mind, you can see that our growth portfolio is strengthening and our guidance reflects Before I hand the call over to David, I would like to thank my BMS colleagues for their efforts at serving patients during 2023 and for their enthusiasm for embarking on our next chapter as a company. David?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Chris, and thank you all again for joining our call today. As Chris mentioned, this is an important time for BMS as we embark on our next chapter, transforming our portfolio. Our performance in 2023 reflect the continued strong growth of our in line and new product portfolio and the ongoing erosion of Revlimid. Let's get started with our top line performance on Slide 12. Unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are made versus the same period in 2022 Sales performance growth rates will be discussed on an underlying basis, which excludes the impact of foreign exchange.

Speaker 4

We delivered sales of approximately $45,000,000,000 in 2023, which reflected 8% growth from our in line and new product portfolio, offset by unfavorable impact of generic entries. During the year, we saw continued strong demand for our key in line products such as Eliquis and Opdivo, While new products gained traction in the respective markets. If you turn to Slide 13, you see our 2023 sales Split between legacy and growth portfolio that Chris spoke about earlier. This is how we will report our business as we move forward. What I can tell you is the transition of the business is already well underway from our legacy to our growth portfolio.

Speaker 4

For 2023, our growth portfolio delivered approximately 15% growth. This supports our strategy that Chris discussed earlier. We see our legacy portfolio providing a solid foundation for cash flow generation in near term, while the products within our growth portfolio grow in significance. Let me dive deeper into our 4th quarter and 4 year sales performance starting with our oncology portfolio on Slide 14. We are pleased with the robust demand for Opdivo, which achieved strong global sales growth for the year.

Speaker 4

In the Q4, U. S. Sales grew 12%, Primarily driven by increased volume in core indications, including first line lung, upper GI and adjuvant bladder cancer, partially offset by optimized growth During the quarter, U. S. And international markets each benefited from approximately $50,000,000 of favorable stocking.

Speaker 4

Internationally, sales grew 4% led by increased demand for lung and gastric cancer indications and from expanded reimbursement. Turning to Optelec, which more than doubled its full year sales in 2023 and it's now a standard of care treatment first line melanoma. In the Q4, U. S. Sales grew 80% versus the prior year and 15% sequentially benefiting from its strong market share position.

Speaker 4

With respect to sales of Octyro in the 4th quarter, we launched in late November and upon U. S. Approval and Q4 sales reflect the initial wholesaler stocking. During During 2024, we look forward to bringing this important medicine to more patients. Let's turn to our cardiovascular on Slide 15.

Speaker 4

Eliquis generated over $12,000,000,000 in sales in 2023 and continues to be the number one oral anticoagulant globally. In 4th quarter, sales grew primarily driven by demand in the U. S. As we continue to gain market share from competitors. Internationally, sales in Q4 were broadly flat Driven by generic entry in several European markets.

Speaker 4

Sales of KENSIAYS in the 4th quarter and full year were strong, including $88,000,000 in Q4. As of December 31, we had roughly 4,500 patients on commercial drug and on average we have been adding roughly 1,000 patients to commercial drug per quarter. The momentum in the U. S. For Kenzayas is expected to continue in 2024 and internationally we expect modest near term sales contribution based on timing of reimbursement And newly launched markets.

Speaker 4

Turning to our hematology portfolio performance on Slide 16, starting with Revlimid. Global sales for the full year were approximately $6,000,000,000 Looking forward, we anticipate continued variability in Revlimid sales quarter to quarter Based upon historic patterns in specialty pharmacy dispensing, we anticipate an additional volume of U. S. Generics to enter the market in March. We continue to forecast a step down in REVLIMID revenues in the range of $1,500,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 this year.

Speaker 4

Now moving to REVLIZEL, Global sales grew 40% in 2023, surpassing $1,000,000,000 on an annualized basis for the first time. For the quarter, Rubozel generated 60% sales growth Driven by strong demand and supported by our broad U. S. First line label. Sales grew 75% in the U.

Speaker 4

S. In Q4. Internationally, REBIZEL continues to be launched in different markets across the globe, including recently in Japan. Turning to our cell therapy portfolio, Starting with sales of Vecna in the U. S, we continue to experience competitive impacts, while ex U.

Speaker 4

S. Demand remains We remain focused on demonstrating the benefits of the product profile to our customers in anticipation of expanded use in the U. S. Upon the potential approval of Karma 3 data in 3rd line plus setting, Beccma was recently approved in Japan in the 3rd line setting based on Karma 3 data and last week we received positive CHP opinion. Moving to Briansy.

Speaker 4

Global sales doubled year over year reflecting the strength of Clinical profile and an improved manufacturing capacity. We are pleased to have received FDA priority review for all three of our expanded indications for Briansy And look forward to the PDUFA date in March for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and additional PDUFA dates in May for follicular and mental cell lymphoma indications. Looking to this year, we expect to see strong sales growth starting in the Q2, driven by improved supply capacity and the potential for these new additional indications. Moving to immunology on Slide 17. Global sales of SYPOZI in 2023 grew 72% to $434,000,000 Driven by increased demand in multiple sclerosis and ulcerative colitis.

Speaker 4

We remain focused on driving growth across both indications. For 2024, keep in mind the typical impact of U. S. Symposia sales in the Q1 due to co pay assistance for commercially insured patients Group's benefits reset. With Certiktu, our goal continues to be driving demand and broadening access.

Speaker 4

We made good progress on both fronts in the 4th quarter. 4th quarter sales in the U. S. Also benefited from a clinical supply purchase of $17,000,000 When you strip out the one time purchases in Q4 and Q3, we showed strong underlying sequential sales growth of approximately 40%, reflecting good pull through from CVS and increased demand. Going forward, the way to look at our progress in the U.

Speaker 4

S. It's through commercially paid prescriptions. As we build volume and improve access, we will be subject to higher rebates, Which is something to keep in mind as you model Sotektu for 2024. Of course, Adam can talk more about this in the Q and A portion of our call today. Internationally, we expect Sotektu to gain additional country regulatory and reimbursement approvals over time.

Speaker 4

Switching gears to our Q4 P and L on Slide 18. Having just covered sales performance, let me walk through a few non GAAP key line items. Gross margin as a percentage of sales decreased approximately 150 basis points to 76.4% compared to prior year Due to product mix and lower hedge settlement gains, excluding acquired in process R and D, 4th quarter and full year operating expenses Decreased primarily due to timing of expenses in 2022. The 4th quarter decline was partially offset by increased investments in Kymzias, Sotiktu And the timing of pipeline investments. Acquired in process R and D in the quarter was $600,000,000 which was partially offset by licensing income, resulting in an unfavorable net impact of $0.20 of EPS.

Speaker 4

The 4th quarter effective tax rate was approximately 14.9% Driven primarily by earnings mix. Overall, earnings per share was $1.70 in the quarter $7.51 for the full year. Now moving to the balance sheet and capital allocation on Slide 19. Our financial position remains strong with approximately $12,600,000,000 in cash and marketable Securities on hand as of December 31, as we generate cash flow from operations of $4,300,000,000 in the 4th quarter. Through a strong financial discipline, we have been able to invest in our business and further expand our portfolio, maintain strong operating margins, pay down debt and returned significant cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

Speaker 4

Over the past 3 years, we've returned over $30,000,000,000 in shareholder distributions, Including the dividend which we've increased annually for 15 years in a row. As you know, we're going to be taking on additional debt this year to finance our planned acquisitions of Karuna And Raised Bio. However, with our strong financial position, we plan to utilize our cash flow to pay down our debt as we've demonstrated in the Our plan is to repay approximately $10,000,000,000 of debt over the next 2 years to improve our leverage profile. Before turning to our line item guidance, let me close with our 2024 non GAAP guidance on Slide 20, which includes Mirati, but excludes the future impact of pending transactions Systemimmune, Koruna and Raisbio. As we did in 2023, we are providing revenue guidance on a reported basis As well as on an underlying basis, which assumes currency remains consistent with prior year.

Speaker 4

We expect 2024 revenues to increase in a low single digit range, Reflecting our confidence in the growing momentum of our growth portfolio. Excluding foreign exchange, we expect revenues to increase in low single digit as well. Driving our momentum this year, we'll be increasing the sales in our growth portfolio from products like Opdivo and our recently launched products. As we said previously, we expect a more modest pace of growth than last year for Opdivo with the potential for acceleration in the back half of the year from new indications. And while our legacy portfolio includes assets that are maturing, we expect strong growth from Eliquis in the U.

Speaker 4

S. This year. As it relates to quarterly progression of our sales, A few reminders. For products like REVLIMID, TOMALIS and KEMZYAS, keep in mind the typical impact on sales in the Q1 Due to patients entering the Medicare coverage gap early in the year. And for Eliquis, the coverage gap dynamic works in the opposite direction Where we expect sales in the first half of the year to be higher than in the second half.

Speaker 4

As it relates to our line item guidance for the year, we expect gross margin to be approximately 74%, which reflects an evolution of our sales mix and the non recurrence of hedging gains from last year. Excluding in process R and D, we expect our total operating expenses It's an increase in a low single digit range, reflecting the additional costs of Mirati and the reallocation of costs and efficiency initiatives in MS and A As we continue to invest in our new product launches, this aligns with our previous operating margin target of at least 37%. This means we remain focused on driving operational efficiencies across the organization, including portfolio prioritization To enable us to invest for growth while maintaining high productivity, we expect OI and E to be approximately $250,000,000 of income, Reflecting the PD-one royalty step down in January from 6.5% to 2.5% as well as the financing costs related to the Mirati acquisition. We project our tax rate to be approximately 17.5% reflecting an increase due to non recurrence of one time tax benefit that occurred in the Q3 of last year plus the anticipated impact of Pillar 2. Finally, we expect to deliver non GAAP earnings per share within the range of $7.10 And $7.40 For clarity, our 2024 guidance excludes the 3 pending transactions.

Speaker 4

As a reminder, System Unit is expected to add about $800,000,000 in in process R and D. Karuna is expected to be about $0.30 dilutive to earnings relating to financing costs as we plan to absorb the OpEx and Ray's Bio would be approximately $0.13 to earnings with half in financing and the other half in OpEx. When we report in Q1 in April, we will update our guidance to reflect the deals that have closed At that time, before we move to the question and answer session, I want to thank all of our colleagues around the world for their hard work and dedication in 2023. This is an exciting time for BMS as we write a new chapter and maintain a singular focus on improving our growth profile over the course of the decade. I believe that our focused financial discipline coupled with strong cash flow generation are key advantages that will enable us to further diversify our portfolio and invest in growth opportunities to deliver for patients and our investors.

Speaker 4

I'll now turn the call back over to Tim and Chris for Q and A.

Speaker 5

First question, please. But before we do, just a reminder, obviously, a busy morning for everybody and to the extent you can keep to

Operator

The first question will come from Luisa Hector of Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

And good morning. Maybe I'll start with the Beqma because you have the FDA adcom coming up. So just your level of confidence Heading into that, any comments on how the label changes are impacting or not for all CAR Ts? And just any pressure that you're seeing from Cartitude 4 and how that might evolve in 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 7

First, we'll have Samit answer and then go to Ash.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Lisa, for the question. From a back my perspective, Karma-three data, we've shared updated data at ASH Last year and as you saw, it was very clear what is driving the overall survival curves. It's because of the crossover The patients have allowance for the progression of their disease on the standard of care arm and therefore that curve does benefit and therefore you see much of Impact on that overall survival benefit that these patients are getting. We are very confident and we are very much looking forward to having that dialogue and Discussion with the regulatory authorities and looking forward to getting this product to the patients as soon as possible. So the second part that you asked about the label updates That the FDA is seeking right now for all CAR T products around T cell malignancies.

Speaker 8

Once again, we've treated thousands of patients. And from our perspective, as we look into our data, we do not see a positive relationship to card cell therapies in terms of Brienzi and Abekma. So we'll continue to have the dialogue with the regulators on that as well as we look to the final wording the FDA will design. With that, let me pass it on to

Speaker 3

Adam? Thanks, Louisa, for the question. So we do expect growth in 2024 for Abekma. Carmen III is a key catalyst for growth this year. And as Amit said, we do look forward to the ODAC to reinforce the benefits of a Beqma in a triple Exposed patient population.

Speaker 3

As you can imagine, our commercial teams have been launch ready for some time, and we're also seeing continued strong international performance. And we'll launch both Becca and Briyansy in a number of new countries this year. We've stated that we've seen continued impact from additional BCMA agents. This is a highly competitive market, putting some pressure on ABECMA growth, but our teams are squarely focused on opening new accounts, Expanding our site footprint not just internationally, but also in the U. S.

Speaker 3

And closing the gap on efficacy perceptions, including solidifying any misconceptions around efficacy and reinforcing Avecma's safety profile, particularly as it relates to CNS neurotoxicity. So taken together, we're confident in Avecma's profile, Looking forward to the ODAC, and I'm confident that we'll be more competitive this year.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Adam. Can we go to the next question, please, Andrea?

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Schott of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, great. Thanks so much for the question. So maybe a bigger picture question on the new launches. I think those new launches did about $3,600,000,000 in 2023. And I know you're not giving longer term targets, but just any Just rough framework of how to think about those sales in 2024.

Speaker 9

I guess, is there a target you're providing? And if there's not a target, can you maybe just talk a little bit about Any areas you see that maybe you're more or less optimistic versus where Street consensus is? I know there's quite a bit of focus on the trajectory of those ramps.

Speaker 7

Thanks for the question, Chris. Maybe I'll just start very quickly and then I'll turn it over to Adam. As we had mentioned, we're not going to be providing individual And I think we had alluded to that when we met at JPMorgan 3 weeks ago. But we did give and will continue to give company line item guidance as we did today. And then you'll see as we report it today, we're going to be talking Additionally, about the growth portfolio that we have, which is going to be important as we think about the business going forward.

Speaker 7

Adam, do you want

Speaker 3

to talk about the new launches? Yes. So thanks I mean, we're coming off a good quarter, and we have a strong foundation for growth to build upon. We're focused on continuing to accelerate our new product portfolio And maximizing the 10 launches that we've had over the last 4 years, we're certainly prioritizing the execution of our new launches And adding investment to accelerate the performance of our growth portfolio for products like Kymzyos, Sutiktu and Briyansy. You've also seen strong performance from Reblzil and OptoLac.

Speaker 3

We also have some of our growth products like Eliquis And Opdivo, which will continue to contribute significant growth in 2024. And finally, we're ready for the launch of CorXT in September, Which we're excited to launch this product, which will be the first new treatment in decades for schizophrenia and also brings a multibillion dollar opportunity to the organization. So adding it up, That's why we're excited to continue to drive commercial performance in an important 2024.

Speaker 5

All right. Andree, can we go to the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Shibutani of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions. This is Charlie on for Chris. We had a question on the subcutaneous Opdivo Strategy for a potential launch there.

Speaker 10

We heard from one of your competitors yesterday on their potential for subcutaneous CPI where they were considering what sounded like a careful Pricing strategy in the context of potential intravenous biosimilars that could be on the market at the same time. So just wondering how you're thinking about pricing on the potential subcutaneous Opdivo? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Adam? Yes. Thanks, Shali, for the question. So we're not going to comment on the pricing of subcu. But what I can say, as you know, we announced Positive results of our subcu Opdivo study in the quarter, and we anticipate a launch early next year.

Speaker 3

As a result, we have the opportunity to potentially benefit thousands of patients well into the next decade with Subcu Opdivo. I think an important thing to keep in mind, remember, Subcu has the potential to address the treatment burden for both patients and physicians Due to less than 5 minute infusion time, and we talked about our ability to convert roughly 30% to 40% The overall U. S. Opdivo business into subcu, and that's why we would expect to see this franchise endure into the next decade. So we certainly look forward to bringing this important formulation both to patients and physicians.

Speaker 5

And let's go to the next question please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Baum of Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Thank you. A question Adam, have you rethought the use of bridge programs for launches in the U. S. Following your Satik 2 experience and then same topic.

Speaker 11

Realistically, how long do you think it will be before Satik 2 start revenues through the combination of broader coverage as well as just getting these patients off the bridge. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks, Andrew. Let me just take the second question first, and then I'll answer as well the Bridge question. So So, Ticu is an important brand for the organization, and we are executing against our plan. We shared last year we're focused on 2 areas.

Speaker 3

The first is driving demand at And the second is securing access and, of course, as you mentioned, pulling through those patients from bridge to commercial. And we're making progress against both. You heard from David, when you normalize sales, excluding clinical trial, orders net sales increased about 40% versus Q3. And access is critically important in this highly competitive market to drive commercial sales. So we secured ESI and now Cigna in a one step position.

Speaker 3

That adds another 40,000,000 lives approximately to complement CVS, which was in a zero step position, will continue to be This year, and that's approximately 25,000,000 lives. And we're actively negotiating with other payers and look forward to updating you on additional progress in due course. I think this year, it's really important to focus on increased paid commercial prescriptions for Certiktu. We will continue to build volume From both new patients that are going to move directly on to CITIC-two at the specialty pharmacies, which Quite frankly, it becomes easier with the improved access that we have now as well as moving patients out of Bridge and onto commercial products. David talked about where we are today, but in Q1, we expect to see around 10,000 paid prescriptions for Sutiktu.

Speaker 3

And he also mentioned there will be an increase in gross net due to broader rebating, which was needed to secure improved access That impacts net sales in Q1. But we expect to see good momentum in growing our base of paid prescriptions this year, and we plan to get roughly Double that level around 20,000 prescriptions in Q4 and that volume momentum will more than offset the gross to net reset in Q1 as the year As you also asked around conversion, conversion is going exactly as we expected. We made very good progress in shifting patients from CVS From the bridge to commercial product, we talked about taking around 2 to 3 months for patients to move from bridge to commercial. And as a result, you saw that 40% sequential growth that excluded the clinical trial purchases. And so we'll continue to drive demand and work to continue to improve Moving patients from our bridge with our ESI and Cigna wins in 2024 and also work to secure improved access In 2025 as well, where it makes financial sense to do so.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Adam. Andrea, let's go to the next question, please.

Operator

The next question comes from Seamus Fernandez of Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

So just a quick one here. On Red La Zyl, the continued strength of the brand And the acceleration that we're starting to see. Can you just talk about what's driving that incrementally? And maybe give us a little bit of a sense of How we should be thinking about the international opportunity for Revlisil in particular? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Adam? Yes, Shannon, thanks for the question. The first line MDS launch is progressing very well in the U. S. With strong demand Supported by our broad label in an RS agnostic patient population.

Speaker 3

Just take you back, we launched in late August. And initially, To the launch, we saw rapid switches from ESAs to REBLISIL. But we're now seeing strength in first line use across The RS positive population, and we're steadily building momentum in the RS negative patient population, particularly in the community setting where the majority of patients are treated. We also have after the ASH presentation, we've heard feedback from both academic and community physicians recognizing the durability of response And the ability to remain transfusion independent as key features of the brand. So we're very pleased with the launch As we're seeing strong sales performance, we expect that to continue this year.

Speaker 3

And REBRISIL was also approved in Japan in mid January. We're seeing nice uptake there, and we expect European approval in the first half of this year.

Speaker 5

Great. Let's go to our next question, please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from Tim Anderson of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thank you. On fatigue too, I think it was at Q3 you've mentioned it would take longer to get no step edits. So I'm wondering what the current That's it. It's exactly what brands do patients have to step through. Is it Otezla Primarily or is it HUMIRA either brand or biosimilar or what exactly?

Speaker 3

Yes, Tim, thank you. So as I mentioned, we secured additional access at ESI and now Cigna in a one step position. And so that really is regardless of the product. So that could be a step after Otezla, it could be a step after 17s are the IL-twenty 3 agents in the market. But what's important is that, that adds another 40,000,000 lives to complement Our 0 step add is in CVS.

Speaker 3

So taken together, that's 65,000,000 lives today, and we're continuing to Actively negotiate with payers and we will update you on additional progress over the coming months. Next question please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from Trung Huynh of UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just on IRA, I realize there's not much you can say about the negotiation where I think CMS has just sent their initial offer. I was wondering about more how do you think about the impact? So for Eliquis, given the patient mix is largely skewed towards Medicare, do you think there could be a potential uplift that could help offset that pricing erosion?

Speaker 14

And how do you anticipate the commercial spillover from those pricing impacts?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for the question. I'll take that. So as it relates to IRA, We do expect an improvement in patient affordability as the patient out of pocket changes for patients this year and into next. We'll see this more acutely next year as out of pocket max is capped at $2,000 and then patients have 0% liability thereafter.

Speaker 3

More broadly, though, we largely don't expect Medicare Part D design changes to impact our portfolio because That will largely take effect in 2026 when branded REVLIMID will be fully eroded. As it relates to commercial spillover, I think it's important that we always look at multiple planning scenarios, including the risk of spillover, but also the potential opportunity, As I just shared around patient affordability, so there are pushes and pulls there with changes in the benefit design. We are going to have to continue to manage Potential spillover risk to commercial with the transparency of the MFP price on September 1. But we also do that today as we manage both books business and we'll need to continue to remain disciplined across our commercial payers. And at the same time, just because the payer wants to include this In negotiating mix, in commercial, it certainly doesn't mean that we have to agree there.

Speaker 3

So we expect continued strong performance this year for Eliquis in the U. S. And expect significant growth through the end of 2025. Thanks, Adam. Let's go to the next question please.

Operator

The next question comes from Geoff Meacham of Bank of Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hey, guys. Good morning and thanks for the question. Chris or David, on capital allocation, You guys have some deals closing obviously in the first half of this year. But would you say the balance of the year is more of a pause on deals with Focus on integration or would bolt on still be of interest? I'm just trying to get a sense with all the launches operationally and whether newer products So more products and integration could be a distraction to what you're doing commercially?

Speaker 15

Thanks.

Speaker 7

Thanks for the question, Jeff. I'll take So as we've discussed previously, as we think about capital allocation, business development continues to be a top priority for us. Obviously, we've just executed a number of deals towards the end of last year, and we've got to stay focused on executing those deals. Having said that, we certainly are going to continue to be interested in bringing innovation into the company that makes strategic and financial sense to do so. I would characterize those a bit more as bolt on opportunities at this point.

Speaker 7

We're also, of course, continuing to look at Partnerships and licensing deals as well. But that's how I would characterize it. Business development is still a priority.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Chris. Let's go to the next question, please.

Operator

The next question comes from Matt Phillips of William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Thanks for taking my question. Simon, I was wondering if you could give us a sense of how many SLE patients do you expect to treat with the NEXT T CAR T program this year. And is the next step after this Phase 1 study straight to a pivotal? Do you have a sense yet of what that looks like?

Speaker 8

Samit? Yes. Thank you for the question, Matt. Look, we are in the dose escalation phase. As you can recall, we have to go 1 patient by 1 patient in the beginning, but very soon we'll be able to treat a number of patients at the same time.

Speaker 8

I can't give you a number in terms of how many patients We intend to treat at this time, but certainly the trials will remain open as we want to certainly get a good understanding of the efficacy and safety profile At the right dose for patients with SLE who have advanced disease, we do intend to present the data later this year, emerging from the first trial. In terms of what the next steps would be, we will be engaging with some data in hand with the regulatory agencies in terms of defining what the trial should look like. In this particular case, would a single arm open label study such as has been done with hematological malignancies, will that be The approach or will the regulators require randomized approach. Those are yet to come, but certainly looking forward to the emergence of this data and presenting that later in the year.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Simon. Let's go to the next question please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from Steve Scala of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much. I believe Milvexion's AFIB trial right around now is at the point Where Bayer stopped its Factor XI Afib trial. Can you reassure us that events in the Milvexion In Afib trial are progressing as expected and Summit based on everything you know, are you very confident In no vaccine in Afib, the trial has been underway for approaching a year. So I would imagine some sort of look has already been taken.

Speaker 8

Sumit? Thank you, Steve for the question. Very thoughtful as always. What we can tell you is the trial is Continuously progressing on all three trials AF, secondary stroke prevention and ACS, enrollment is going very well And certainly the DMC continues to oversee the trials and we do not have any indication from the DMC otherwise. We will continue to look at the data from a perspective of safety as well as the DMC will continue to look at the data.

Speaker 8

There's nothing more to report at this time. I would say one thing though that assuming just because a competitor trial failed for whatever reasons and the doses that they picked, We don't have that same philosophy. We actually did conduct 2 very well designed studies. We picked differential doses between atrial fibrillation versus And those are the reasons to believe and we will certainly be looking forward to readout of these trials in 2026 and 2027.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Samet. Andre, can we go to the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Terence Flynn of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 17

Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I was just wondering if you could elaborate on your thoughts on Brianca commercial potential this year, Particularly in the second line setting and how the final OS data might impact that? And then anything you're seeing with respect to outpatient treatment for Brianca here? Thank you.

Speaker 8

Adam, then Samit. Yes, certainly. Thank you. So I'll start off and then pass it on. Harindi Kamhul always comes first before commercial.

Speaker 8

So I'll start off with Brienzi. Certainly looking forward to these 3 PDUFA dates that Adam had mentioned earlier, as well as David in his remarks For follicular lymphoma, mantle cell lymphoma and CLL. And then of course planning to do a few more trials And these lymphoma patients because that remains a very high unmet medical need. And then of course there are multiple other cell therapy products That are in development, so we'll be talking more about that. From the out of spec or the continuation of those discussions, we continue to engage with the regulatory authorities and we'll update At a later date, once we have an inkling in terms of where we are landing on that.

Speaker 8

Adam?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for the question. So we're pleased with Brianca In the quarter, you saw a double digit growth quarter on quarter. We also expect to continue to make good progress with Brionzy in 2024 supported by And to support our new indications for Breonzy, starting with the planned CLL indication in March, where Breonzy will be the first and only Cell therapy agents have this indication. As Sam had alluded to, we're making good progress in reducing turnaround time, out of spec and drug product capacity.

Speaker 3

So now As we move through the course of the first half of the year with its broad label in LBCL and now with 3 FDA prior to reviews in the first half of the year, Brianti has the potential to treat the broadest array of B cell malignancies of any CAR T, and these indications, we believe, will double The addressable patient population for Brianca. So we're very pleased with what we're seeing and the progress that we're making. We are seeing increases in outpatient use because of the best in class Safety profile that Brown seat brings, and we expect strong demand growth this year.

Speaker 5

Let's go to the next question, please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from Evan Spigerman of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi, guys. Thank you so much for taking my question. So last week, you presented initial data from your antigen receptor ligand directed to GRADOR at ASCO GU, then hosted an event for the cell Amit, I'd love for you to speak to why you think it's important for investors and analysts to pay attention to a Phase 1 asset at a company as large as I know you

Speaker 7

have a lot going on

Speaker 12

in your pipeline, but why should we be focused on things like this?

Speaker 7

Sumit will start and then we'll turn it to Adam to get some feedback from KOLs on this Thank

Speaker 8

you, Evan. I think it's a good question. And the reason we believe that it is important for us to be able to highlight this are multifold. Let me start off by saying, remember last year at R and D Day, we had said that there are 2 platforms that are very critical and we believe in And we are continuing to progress on them. ARLDD, the molecule is the 1st protein integrator from that platform that goes into solid tumors.

Speaker 8

And we wanted to absolutely be able to demonstrate that it is as we anticipated, it is progressing well, Showing efficacy and manageable safety profile in patients with late line prostate cancer. As you saw from the data, the PSA 30, PSA 50 reductions, the durability of that and those are truly correlated if you look at the data set as well as in literature, the correlation of that Impacting the overall survival. So we are truly excited about what we've seen thus far. We are of course enrolling more patients. We are in the dose optimization phase.

Speaker 8

We've had interactions with regulatory authorities and now planning for initiating the next phase of development registration trials within the next 6 to 12 months. Let me just pass it over to Adam to comment further from his perspective

Speaker 3

as well. Yes. Thanks, Amit. And Evan, thanks for the question. So We're excited about, as Sanath said, the platform of protein degradation.

Speaker 3

And as it relates to ARLDD, in prostate cancer, This diversifies our IO portfolio even further to complement some of the recent deals. We had a number of KOL and community feedback coming out of the ASCO GU presentation, and PLs have been enthusiastic about the profile, particularly around the efficacy of the asset, the durability of response. And when we asked community physicians, they were reassured around the safety profile as well, saying that it was a manageable safety profile, And they were enthusiastic about moving this into Phase III registrational studies and look forward to having the opportunity to treat patients with late line prostate cancer.

Speaker 5

Let's go to the next question please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from Carter Gould of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 17

Great. Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. For Adam, I wanted to come back to Kamsiost.

Speaker 17

You sort of have shown a pretty Steady kind of addition of the sort of the same number of patients sort of each quarter. I would expect sort of now that you've gotten your feet underneath with the launch that number would be increasing Seeing sort of each quarter like we see with most launches, which I guess suggest there's some other sort of gating factor, whether that's Can you elaborate on what you're seeing and whether you disagree, agree with kind of how I frame that there and To whatever extent you can comment on the trends going forward in 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Adam? Sure, Carter. Thanks for the question. So we continue to make very good progress with Kamsiyeos. As we talked about, we're investing further behind the brand in unbranded and branded direct to consumer.

Speaker 3

We do expect to see continued Steady and consistent growth. As David mentioned in his opening remarks, we're averaging around 1,000 patients on a quarterly basis. Patient and physician feedback continue to be very positive. Remember, these patients are going to be on treatment for a very long time. And taking me back to JPMorgan, if you recall, Chris showed an analog where KAMZYOS is tracking akin to a very strong Phoebe launch, in this case Entresto.

Speaker 3

So This is the way that cardiovascular launches uptake. And we are focused on continuing to drive breadth in our top COEs. We're continuing to And outside of our top COEs, and we're working to increase diagnosis rates by activating patients via our new DTC advertising. So That coupled with new launches internationally, we are confident that it's going to lead to continued and sustained growth for this important brand.

Operator

The next question comes from Mohit Bansal of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Hi, this is Serena on for Mohit Bansal. Thanks for taking our question. So I wanted to ask about the Phase 2 oXuilag readout coming out Early this year in first line lung cancer, I was wondering how meaningful you think this data could be considering that the comparator arm is Opdivo chemo versus Opdivo Yervoy being the approved regimen? Thank you.

Speaker 8

Thank you for the question. Obviously, we're looking forward to seeing the data for Opdivo, a randomized Phase 2 study looking at the combination of Opdivo, rilatilimab plus chemotherapy comparing to Opdivo Chemo. The intent of doing this is twofold. 1, we wanted to get the contribution of component question out Right away, so that we can show the contribution of ralatlimab on top of Opdivo with chemotherapy. And number 2, we also wanted to plan the So that we can when we do go to Phase 3, the appropriate control arm that is most widely used right now is pembrokemo.

Speaker 8

And therefore, we are set for that dependent of course on the data. So later this quarter and this year, you will be able to hear about the data and then based on the data, we will be making

Operator

The next question comes from Robin Karnauskas of Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 19

Hey, guys. Thank you so much for taking my question. This is Kripa on Robin, I have a follow-up question on CAMZYOS. Just wondering if you can talk a little bit about how you think the recent data from a competitor might broadly impact the landscape in ACM. Obviously, the drug is not approved yet, but do you see These data improving awareness and based on that, do you expect to see any sort of infection points?

Speaker 19

And also, can you talk a little bit more about your efforts ex U. S? And if we should continue to see steady growth or any sort of inflection points based on the reimbursement the reimbursements that you expect? Thank you.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you. Yes. Thank you for the questions. The way we would look at it is that The competitor data actually further strengthens our confidence in Chemsyos.

Speaker 8

And within the Chemsyos clinical trials, We now have 3 Phase 3 trials that are read out with amazing transformational data. You've seen the data for EXPLORER. You've seen the data from Valor and recently we had the readout of a Phase 3 trial in Japan as well, which replicates the results that we've already seen for the first two trials. As Adam would tell you, we've treated now thousands of patients and that data also continues to showcase the efficacy of the drug as well as maintains the safety of the drug. As you will see when the data are presented from the real world setting at ACC, what the overall safety profile of the drug is.

Speaker 8

So in general, what I would say is that Chemsios lives up to its promise of a transformational potential for the patients and any patient who goes on the drug usually doesn't want to come off because of the benefit that they're achieving. Adam? Yes.

Speaker 3

Thanks for the question. So certainly, when we look at the top line data from Sequoia, it's consistent with our internal expectations. We'll obviously need to see the data set, but ultimately, we don't see any clinically meaningful differences in the data. In fact, when we spoke to many TLs after those data were shared, they have stated that They also talked about the difference in PDO2 being not a clinically meaningful endpoint and likely those any differences are due to differences in patient populations across the two studies. I can assure you, we will certainly be prepared for apacamten when it comes to market With our leading cardiovascular organization, and we have maintained a consistent view that we will remain leaders in this space.

Speaker 3

I've also said, though, that important thing to keep in mind with this class is we do see that another competitor could be a net positive To help drive awareness for patients with symptomatic OHCM and increased diagnosis rates, which is also really important. Finally, as it relates to expansion outside of the U. S, we're just starting to see expansion outside of the U. S. We've launched in Germany.

Speaker 3

We'll prepare to launch In Japan, in China, in mid year and a host of other markets. So we'll start to see that Those sales manifest in the back end of the year and into 2025.

Speaker 5

Let's go to the next question please, Andrea.

Operator

The next question comes from James Shinn of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the question. Just wanted to circle back on the Pozier. Adam, I think you mentioned earlier or late last year, The access was still improving for UC. Is that access going to improve meaningfully this year or is it going to take a little bit more time sort of like a similar

Speaker 3

So, overall, we're seeing solid And continued quarterly and year on year growth. As David shared, we showed 66% growth versus prior year. And I think the apology has been really a tale of 2 launches. MS performance amongst the oral competitors is solid. We expect continued share growth there.

Speaker 3

And we're growing in the face of a declining oral market in favor of B cell agents. We continue to have an opportunity for continued growth in UC, which, As you know, it's a very competitive market. We're making progress as volume and share are increasing. We are focused on expanding the breadth of prescribers. We're continuing to position earlier in lines of treatment and the opportunity for additional indications like Crohn's disease, the data readout later this year will also add The sales for ZYPOZIA.

Speaker 3

So Ken, we do expect to see continued growth for ZYPOZIA as patients continue to accumulate and physicians continue to gain experience With the product. Great. And we've maybe time for 1 or 2 more.

Speaker 5

Maybe we go to next question for now and then one after that, Andrea.

Operator

Okay. The next question is from Akash Tewari of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 20

Hey, thanks so much. Can you comment on what drives your confidence On the Alzheimer's psychosis trial reading out positively. Any color on what percent of patients you think will be able to get on the high dose of KR XT And what percent of dropouts do you think will occur in the treatment arms for these ADEPT trials? Should it be roughly similar to what we've seen in the schizophrenia study? Thank you.

Speaker 8

Amit? Thank you. Thank you for the question Akash. Look, our confidence in remains very high. And the reason for that is if you go back To the first publications of the zenomelene trial, that was a study that was published I think in 1997 in fact.

Speaker 8

And if you look at that data that was a positive trial, which tells us That XR, so M1, M4 muscular interceptor agonist do work over there. The obvious issue over there was the Due to the peripheral muscular and mechanism that was seen. So that combination with trospium has led to obviously better outcomes as we saw in schizophrenia. The trial in AD psychosis is right now at the beginning stages. So the doses are being tested right now.

Speaker 8

So it's hard to comment on what the dose utilization would be, whether patients will be on the highest doses. It's too early to tell. We'll have To get into it, but of course Karuna and us, we continue to operate as separate companies right now. And once the transaction closes, then we'll be able to get deeper into it and look at what

Operator

The next question comes from Rajesh Kumar of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 21

Hi, good morning. I appreciate that you can't obviously give any color on Eliquis Price negotiations. But when we look at your margin guidance this year, I'm assuming That you have made an assumption and that is implicit in that guidance and out Of this negotiation or should we expect as we get more clarity to adjust your guidance from what you learned?

Speaker 7

So, Rajesh, thanks for the question. I'll try to start and then I'll turn it over to David to just talk a little bit about how we're thinking about margins, We're not going to be able to give any additional discussion around where we sit with IRA on Eliquis. We got the initial offer. We're going

Speaker 20

to follow the process They have

Speaker 7

and the price will be public in September, and we won't be providing additional details around that. But maybe David can talk to you a bit about

Speaker 22

How we think about margins generally? Yes, just overall, as we guided, we anticipate gross margins to be about 74% this year, and that's really driven by The LOE brand is coming down, but as the growth portfolio continues to increase, obviously, that will help Longer term where those gross margins are going. We also said that our operating expenses grow in the mid Low single digit range. And with that, really, there's a lot going on there that, as we said on Corona, we're going to find savings and efficiencies in order to Cover those expenses, but also, as Adam indicated and I said in opening remarks, we're increasing our investments in KEMZYIS and SITIK2. So with that, we're finding from our legacy brands, re funneling those resources into that.

Speaker 22

And all of that said, we'll be able to deliver a margin greater than 37% for

Speaker 7

the year, which we feel very confident about. Thanks, David. So I think that was it for the time that we have, but I thank you all for joining the call today. I know it's a very busy day for all of you. Hopefully, you get a sense from the discussion this morning that we exited 2023 with good momentum to capitalize on the strategy that we I've articulated about how we're going to navigate this decade.

Speaker 7

And of course, we look forward to sharing the progress against that on future calls. And with that, We'll close the call. And as always, the team is available to answer any questions following today's discussion. And I hope all of you have a very good day and a good weekend. Thanks.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Bristol-Myers Squibb Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads