The Hartford Financial Services Group Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 2, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the 4th Quarter and Year End 2020 The Hartford Financial Results Webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer Thank you.

Operator

Susan Spivak, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our call and webcast on 4th quarter and full year 2023 earnings. Yesterday, we reported results and posted all of the earnings related materials on our website. For the call today, our participants are Chris Swift, Chairman and CEO of The Hartford Beth Costello, Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Bennett, Group Benefits Stephanie Busch, Small Commercial and Personal Lines and Moe Tucker, Middle and Large Commercial and Global Specialty. Just a few comments before Chris begins. Today's call includes forward looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Speaker 1

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results could be materially different. We do not assume any obligation to update information of forward statements provided on this call. Investors should also consider the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from these statements. A detailed description of those risks and uncertainties can be found in our SEC filings. Our commentary today includes non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

Explanations and reconciliations of these measures to the comparable GAAP measures are included in our SEC filings as well as in the news release and financial supplement. Finally, please note that no portion of this conference call may be reproduced or rebroadcast in any form without The Hartford's prior written consent. Replays of this webcast and an official transcript will be available on The Hartford's website for 1 year. I'll now turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I will start with a summary of our Q4 and full year 'twenty three results, which are simply stellar. Then I'll turn the call over to Beth to dive deeper into our financial performance and key metrics, after which I will close our prepared remarks with a review of expectations for 2024. We then will be joined by our business leaders as we move into Q and A. So let's get started.

Speaker 2

The Hartford is pleased to report an excellent 4th quarter, capping another outstanding year of financial performance and achievement of our strategic objectives. These results demonstrate the power of the franchise and in particular our superior underwriting execution, depth of distribution relationships an unmatched customer experience. I am grateful for the commitment, dedication and hard work of our 19,000 employees who show up every day to deliver for our customers, partners and shareholders. Let me call your attention to some highlights for both the quarter and the year. Topline growth in Commercial Lines was 9% for the quarter with an underlying combined ratio of 86.6 and growth was 10% for the year with an 87.8 underlying combined ratio.

Speaker 2

We achieved strong renewal written pricing increases across P and C during the quarter and for the year, including notable double digit increases in commercial property, personal auto and homeowners in the quarter. Group Benefits fully insured premium growth was 6% for the quarter with a core earnings margin of 9.8% And growth was 7% for the year with a core earnings margin of 8.1%. We delivered strong investment performance with an 80 basis points increase in the portfolio yield, excluding limited partnerships for the full year. All these items contributed to an outstanding and industry leading core earnings ROE of 15.8%. Now let me share a few details from each of our businesses.

Speaker 2

Our Commercial Lines business completed its 3rd straight year of double digit top line growth and underlying margin expansion. Written premium growth of 10% for the year was driven by meaningful exposure growth, pricing increases across most lines and strong new business growth in each of our 3 businesses. As expected, underlying margins improved 0.5 point as slight headwinds in workers' compensation were more than offset by earned pricing exceeding loss cost trends across the rest of the portfolio and by improved expense leverage. Small commercial remains a highly profitable growth engine for The Hartford. 2023 included record breaking annual written premium of $5,000,000,000 and a decade long trend of annual sub-ninety underlying combined ratios.

Speaker 2

Spectrum, our best in class package product continues to outperform in a competitive marketplace, contributing to annual new business premium growth up 20% over prior year. I am incredibly pleased with the overall performance in small commercial, A business we expect will sustain outstanding results with industry leading products and unmatched ease of conducting business and unrivaled pricing accuracy. Moving to middle and large commercial, the performance has also been truly exceptional. Our team has improved annual underlying margins by approximately 10 points since 2019, while adding over $900,000,000 in written premium at a 7% compounded annual growth rate. In 2023, written premiums grew 9%, reflecting strong rate execution and new business growth.

Speaker 2

Submissions, quotes and the hit rate are all up over prior year as we leveraged advanced underwriting capabilities, particularly within the low end of middle market. The stellar results in this business are a direct result of data science advancements, pricing expertise and industry leading tools. Combining these advantages With our best in class talent and the strength of our distribution relationships, we are well positioned to sustain profitable growth in this business. In Global Specialty, advanced underwriting capabilities and continued discipline are driving targeted market share gains With excellent underlying margin performance, it has hovered in the low to mid-80s for the past 7 quarters. Our competitive position, breadth of products and solid renewal written pricing drove an 11% increase in net written premium for the year, including 33% in our global reinsurance business and mid double digit growth in U.

Speaker 2

S. Professional liability and International Marine and Energy. New business growth of 7% for the year and 20% for the 4th quarter was driven by significant increases in both submissions and quotes in wholesale. Renewal written pricing continues to accelerate in wholesale excess casualty and property pricing has been above 20% all year. We remain excited about our position in the wholesale market and across Global Specialty with execution that has never been stronger.

Speaker 2

Looking across commercial lines, we are particularly pleased by the growth in property lines, a key area of focus. We will continue to capitalize on favorable market conditions with a thoughtful and disciplined approach. Property written premium of $2,500,000,000 for the year was approximately 20% higher than 2022. Turning to pricing, commercial lines renewal and pricing was 6%, an increase from 5.5% in the Q3. Excluding workers' compensation, renewal written pricing rose 0.4% to 8.5% With strong property pricing at 11%, auto closing in on double digits and many liability lines in the high single digits, Public D and O pricing remains pressured, although the 4th quarter result was the lowest pricing decrease since the Q2 of 2022.

Speaker 2

In workers' compensation, renewal written pricing continues to exceed expectations, remaining slightly positive in the quarter. All in ex comp renewal, written pricing and commercial lines remains comfortably on top of loss cost trends in the Q4. In summary, Commercial Lines produced an exceptional quarter, closing out a very successful 2023. Moving to personal lines, I am pleased with our continued progress to address elevated loss cost trends in both auto and home. During the quarter, we achieved auto renewal written price increases of nearly 22% and new business rate adequacy in over half the states, representing 2 thirds of our new business premium.

Speaker 2

In Homeowners, renewal written pricing of 14.7% during the quarter comprised of net rate and insured value increases outpaced underlying loss cost trends. Our focus on the preferred market within The personal lines business is a competitive advantage with our modern, innovative and digitally enhanced offering Prevail. This product and platform are currently available in 41 states with additional states coming online in 2024. Turning to Group Benefits, we had an exceptional year delivering record core earnings of 567,000,000 and an outstanding core earnings margin of 8.1% and strong fully insured ongoing premium growth of 7%, demonstrating focused execution, a resilient economy, improved mortality trends and continued strong disability results. 2023 disability loss ratio of 67.1 reflects low long term disability incidence trends and favorable claim recoveries.

Speaker 2

In 2023, group life mortality trends have improved, So they remain above pre pandemic levels. We expect the Group Benefits market to remain dynamic with digital transformation, product innovation and increasing customer demands. As a result, we are investing in this business and have a clear roadmap that I am confident will only strengthen our market leadership position. For example, building on our historically strong presence in national accounts with an enhanced approach for small to midsize employers, We view this as a key strategic initiative, leveraging our unique expertise in these markets. In addition, as we have discussed before, we struck a partnership with Beam, a dental and vision company to expand our product offerings for small to midsized employers.

Speaker 2

Overall, the strength of our Group Benefits Diversified product portfolio, our commitment to outstanding customer experience using data and technology resonates in this marketplace, cementing our leadership position. Now, I'll turn the call over to Beth provide more detailed commentary on the quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Chris. Core earnings for the quarter were 935,000,000 or $3.06 per diluted share with a 12 month core earnings ROE of 15.8%. Commercial Lines had a very strong quarter year with core earnings of $723,000,000 $2,200,000,000 respectively, and an underlying combined ratio of 86.6% for the quarter and 87.8% for the year. Small commercial continues to deliver excellent results with premium growth of 8% and an underlying combined ratio of 85.8 compared to 87.5% in the prior year Q4. For the year, growth was 10% and the underlying combined ratio was 88.6%.

Speaker 3

Middle and Large Commercial delivered its 3rd straight quarter of written premium over $1,000,000,000 with 11% growth and an underlying combined ratio of 90.3%. For 2023, growth was 9% with an underlying combined ratio of 89 point 3 compared to 92.1 in the prior year. Global Specialty's 4th quarter underlying was an exceptional 82.9 and for the year improved 30 basis points to 84.3. In personal lines, core earnings for the quarter were $36,000,000 with an underlying combined ratio of 99.5 including a strong homeowners underlying combined ratio of 67.3. The 4th quarter Auto underlying combined ratio of 113.5 was better than our expectations due to lower auto physical damage losses.

Speaker 3

This result is an improvement of 5.1 points from the Q4 of 2022 once that quarter is adjusted for the adverse development recorded in the first half of twenty twenty three related to the Q4 of 2022. Also, I will point out that during the Q4 of this year, we made no adjustments to loss reserves for prior accident years. As Chris indicated, we continue to pursue rate increases to offset the loss cost trends we are experiencing. Written premium and personal lines increased 12% over the prior year, driven by steady and successful rate actions. In auto, we achieved written pricing increases of 21.9% and earned pricing increases of 15.5%.

Speaker 3

In addition, we received approval for an 18.7% rate increase in California that was effective in January. In homeowners, written pricing increases were 14.7% for the quarter and 14% on an earned basis. The total personal lines expense ratio improved by 10 basis points, primarily driven by the impact of higher earned premium, partially offset by higher direct marketing costs. With respect to cats, P and C current fees were $81,000,000 before tax, which compares to catastrophe losses of $135,000,000 in the prior year quarter. Total net favorable prior accident year development within core earnings was $102,000,000 primarily concentrated in commercial lines as reserve reductions in workers' compensation, catastrophes and bond were partially offset by reserve increases in assumed reinsurance and commercial auto liability.

Speaker 3

We completed our annual asbestos and environmental reserve study in the 4th quarter, resulting in an increase in reserves of $194,000,000 comprised of $156,000,000 for asbestos $38,000,000 for environmental. All of the $194,000,000 was ceded to the adverse development cover. The increase in asbestos reserves was primarily due to an increase in the cost of resolving asbestos filings and a modest increase in the company's share of loss on a few specific individual accounts. The increase in environmental reserves was mainly due to higher estimated site remediation costs, including an increase in the estimates for PFAS exposures. After taking into consideration this year's study, as of December 31, we have $62,000,000 of coverage remaining on the A and E ADC and a deferred gain of $788,000,000 For our Navigators ADC, we have previously ceded the full limit of $300,000,000 of which $209,000,000 has been recognized as a deferred gain within other liabilities.

Speaker 3

In 2024, we expect to start collecting recoveries on the ADC and as a result, amortization of the deferred gain is expected to begin in 1st quarter. Based on our estimate of payment patterns, we expect total amortization of the deferred gain in 2024 will be approximately $125,000,000 pretax with the remaining balance amortized in 2025. This will positively impact net income and have no impact to core earnings. Before turning to Group Benefits, I would like to review the January 1 reinsurance renewals. Overall, we were very pleased with the placements and terms and conditions for our program.

Speaker 3

Our expiring core per occurrence catastrophe protection was renewed at an approximate 5% decrease in cost on a risk adjusted basis, which based on publicly available information compares favorably with the overall market and speaks to the quality of our book of business, strong reinsurer relationships and favorable experience. There were some minor changes in the treaty that provides coverage for certain loss events under $350,000,000 but overall, the structure of our property cat program did not change significantly. Additionally, we secured another $300,000,000 layer on top of our program through a combination of traditional reinsurance and sponsorship of a catastrophe bond. The addition of cat bond protection furthers our goal of securing diversified, strongly rated protection that affords durability in both cost and availability. The majority of our occurrence protection is secured on a multi year basis.

Speaker 3

As of January 1, we have protection up to a gross loss event of 1,400,000,000 We also renewed our aggregate treaty under the same structure and term with favorable pricing from a risk adjusted perspective. You've heard Chris reference our strategic growth in property writings. These changes ensure a consistent level of protection in keeping with that growth. We have summarized these changes in the slide deck. And in addition to our property catastrophe program, successfully renewed several other reinsurance treaties that experienced limited changes in terms, conditions and rates.

Speaker 3

Moving to Group Benefits, we achieved record core earnings of $174,000,000 for the quarter $567,000,000 for the full year. Core earnings margin of 9.8% in the quarter and 8.1% for the full year reflects strong premium growth, improved life results and continued strong disability performance. The group disability loss ratio of 63.6 for the quarter improved 1.9 points over prior year, reflecting continued strong long term disability claim recoveries. For the year, the group disability loss ratio improved 1.2 points to 67.1. The group life loss ratio of 83 for the quarter improved 6.1 points versus prior year, reflecting an improving mortality trend.

Speaker 3

For the year, the group life loss ratio improved 3.9 points to 83.5. The expense ratio improved 0.8 points for the quarter and 1 point for the year, reflecting strong top line performance and expense efficiencies somewhat offset by continued investments to meet our customers' evolving needs. Fully insured ongoing sales in the quarter of $71,000,000 contributed to a full year sales total of 839,000,000 This combined with excellent persistency at above 90% resulted in fully insured ongoing premium growth of 6% for the quarter and 7% for the year. Our diversified investment portfolio produced strong results. For the quarter, net investment income was $653,000,000 Our fixed income portfolio is continuing to benefit from higher interest rates And we continue to be pleased with the positive 150 basis point differential between our reinvestment rate and the yield on sales and maturities.

Speaker 3

The total annualized portfolio yield excluding limited partnerships was 4.3% before tax, 20 basis points higher than the 3rd quarter. Looking forward to 20 15 to 20 basis points of improvement reflected of the current yield environment. This increase combined with portfolio asset growth is expected to contribute approximately $135,000,000 to net investment income before tax excluding LPs. Our annualized LP returns were 7% in the quarter. Full year 2023 LP returns were 4.8%, reflecting the resiliency of our private equity portfolio, which helped offset the slightly negative returns in the real estate equity portfolio.

Speaker 3

The overall credit quality of the portfolio remains high with an average credit rating of A plus Fixed maturity valuations increased in the quarter as a result of lower interest rates and tighter spreads. Net credit losses, including intent to sell impairments remain insignificant along with a modest increase of $5,000,000 in the allowance for credit losses on the mortgage loan portfolio. All of our mortgage loans continue to be current with respect to interest and principal payments. Turning to capital, as of December 31, holding company resources totaled 1,100,000,000 For 2024, we expect total dividends from the operating companies of approximately $2,200,000,000 During the quarter, we repurchased 4,700,000 shares under our share repurchase program for $350,000,000 We expect to remain at that level of repurchases in the Q1. As of year end, we had $1,350,000,000 remaining on our share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2024.

Speaker 3

To wrap up, 2023 business performance was strong and we are well positioned to continue to deliver on our targeted returns and enhance value for all of our stakeholders. I will now turn the call back to Chris.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Beth. Let's now pivot forward. Strong 4th quarter results capped a year of outstanding financial performance, positioning us to sustain these results in 2024. In commercial lines, with our diversified and expanding product portfolio and innovative mindset, we are primed to continue to build market share at highly attractive margins. We expect total renewal written price increases in commercial lines, excluding workers' compensation to be consistent with 2023.

Speaker 2

Workers' compensation and renewal written pricing, which is composed of net rate and average Wage growth is projected to be flat to slightly negative. We expect underlying margins to be consistent with 2023, reflecting our steadfast commitment to disciplined underwriting, while sustaining industry leading results. While we anticipate slight headwinds in workers' compensation, earned pricing is projected to remain on top of loss cost trends across the remainder of the commercial lines book. Turning to personal lines, We expect annual renewal written pricing in both auto and home to be consistent with the 4th quarter results. In auto, As a result of the significant written pricing actions that will earn into the book, combined with moderating severity trends, We expect meaningful underlying loss ratio improvement of 5 points to 6 points during 2024.

Speaker 2

Earn pricing in home is expected to remain above loss cost trends. As we navigate this inflationary period Across personal lines, we are focused on balancing rate adequacy, quality of new business and marketing productivity. Overall, I am confident we have the right execution plans to return this business to targeted profitability in 2025. In Group Benefits, we expect the 2024 core earnings margin to be between 6% 7%, consistent with our long term outlook for this business. In closing, Let me summarize why I'm so bullish about the future.

Speaker 2

First, 2023 financial results demonstrated the effectiveness of our strategy and the ongoing investments in our business. In particular, underlying margins in commercial lines were excellent with meaningful top line growth and we produced record core earnings and Group Benefits with strong premium growth. 2nd, Personal Lines results have stabilized. We are achieving necessary rate increases and expect 2024 margins to improve towards our targeted profitability. 3rd, We expect our book of diversified, but complementary businesses will continue to sustain superior results.

Speaker 2

With our outstanding underwriting and pricing execution, exceptional talent and innovative customer centric technology, We will continue to outperform. 4th, investment income remains strong, supported by rising yields and a diversified and durable portfolio of assets. And finally, in the last 3 years, we have returned $6,200,000,000 of capital through repurchases and dividends, and we will continue to proactively manage our excess capital to be accretive for shareholders. All these factors contributed to my excitement and confidence about the future of The Hartford. Quarter after quarter, we are delivering industry leading financial performance with a sustainable core earnings ROE anchored at 15% while creating value for all our stakeholders.

Speaker 2

Let me now turn the call back over to Susan for Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Chris. We have about 30 minutes for questions. Operator, can you please repeat the instructions for asking a question?

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning. So I'm looking at the commercial lines expense ratio and With Hartford Next, you had significant improvement from 'twenty one to 'twenty two. And then in the Q4, you had 100 and 10 basis points of improvement. Now that Hartford Next is over, Do you see that improvement continuing and maybe to what degree?

Speaker 2

Andrew, I'll start and then Beth can add her commentary. So yes, I appreciate you pointing out the numbers. I think also too on a year to date basis, 22 to 23, a 60 basis point improvement, which on a full year basis, I think is a good run rate. And all I would say is philosophically, we do have a continuous improvement mindset in the organization to get after additional expense efficiencies. I wouldn't say we have a formal program that we've called out, but clearly it's in 1's goal is to become more efficient, create that operating leverage that as we grow the franchise, We just it's a good levered model, but more earnings drops to the bottom line.

Speaker 2

But Beth, what would you add?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chris. I think you covered on The piece is very well. If we look at the full year expense ratio for commercial lines ending at 31, I think that's a really Great result. And as Chris said, we are going to continue to look for efficiencies. But we're also very mindful of making sure that we're putting in place the appropriate investments that allow us to continue to deliver the outstanding results that you see in our commercial lines franchise.

Speaker 4

Thanks. And then shifting over to personal auto, You got a 21.9% rate increase. I want to make sure I understand that that's is that Sure rate or is that exposure growth? And then secondly, Chris, if I understood you did you say that you expected 5 to 7 points of lot ratio improvement, or could it be a lot more than that given the 21.9

Speaker 2

Yes. Andrew, on your first point and Stephanie can add any of her commentary, the The 21.9%, I think we achieved is a vast, vast majority, all pure rate. There might be a little exposure in there, put very, very little. And I did say 5 to 6 points of improvement in auto next year. So No, it's okay.

Speaker 2

I'm okay with numbers. So I'll help you out. 5% to 6%. So if we ended the year at 110, We think we can get down to $104,000,000 next year on an underlying basis. And then that's why, again, we're going to have to continue to Execute and work hard in 2025 to get down then to targeted margins, which I would say on an underlying basis on auto is Generally in the 95% to 96% range, you put 2 points for catastrophes on there and that's your overall combined ratio.

Speaker 2

So Yes, that's our plan. As I said before, I think Stephanie and the team have a very executable plan. They're executing well in the marketplace today and balancing new business, balancing renewals and balancing our spend in marketing. Stephanie, would you add any additional color?

Speaker 5

You covered it perfectly. Thank you.

Speaker 4

And would you drive any additional rate As we go through the year or will you feel good about that? Say it again.

Speaker 2

I didn't hear you clearly.

Speaker 4

I'm sorry, would you seek additional rate increases as we move through the year? Or do you feel like the rates you've gotten so far should help drive you to the goals that you want to be at in 2025?

Speaker 2

Yes. Clearly, The rate that we achieved this year is contributing. And as I said, we're anticipating 20 points of rate also next year, which is very important because that then sets up getting back to our targeted margins in 2025.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Peter from Raymond James. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Well, good morning, everyone. I guess, I'd like to go back to your comment in the outlook portion of your presentation where you said the ROE is anchored at 15%. It sounds to me like there's been a step up in your expectations on the ROE range. And I'm not trying to Put words in your mouth, but I'm just trying to understand exactly what you meant by anchored at 15%.

Speaker 2

Thank you for the question. I'm happy to provide any clarity. I thought anchored was actually a pretty good word because it really means sort of floor in my mind. And Greg, we had a 14% to 15% ROE range as guidance last year. We're giving qualitative guidance this year as opposed to sort of the table.

Speaker 2

So we really wanted Send a strong message that we're shifting and it's shifting higher. And the construct we came up with was let's just anchor 15 as far as a floor for everyone's expectations. We always put out guidance and have a high probability of meeting that And we play for upside. And you saw the way we ended 2023. And I'd say, think we're off to a good start this year and I think there will be upside in that floor number that we provide, That was the mindset behind that.

Speaker 6

Excellent. That was my interpretation. Just wanted to make sure I had it right. So appreciate that. I want to pivot to the benefits side.

Speaker 6

I think and I'm sorry, I was writing down a bunch of numbers during the presentation, But I think you said the core earnings margin target for 24% is going to be in the 6% to 7% range. It feels like there's been a step up in the last couple of quarters in your core earnings margin. And then if I look at in the Group Benefits for the full year, I think the core earnings margin for 'twenty three was 8.1% versus 6.5% in 'twenty two. So Is there something going on inside that business that's causing a step down lower or maybe you can provide some color around Your comments, sir.

Speaker 2

Yes, happy to, Greg. And then I'll ask Jonathan Bennett who's with us to add his color. No, I think it's a great business. We've always I think it fits within the Hartford. It contributes mightily and it's improved, particularly coming out of COVID.

Speaker 2

So I would just say that the 6% to 7%, we've been pretty consistent. That's our long term view. Commenting on a long term view for that business, in particularly given some of the rate guarantees that are in that book of business. So But I would also say that we had an excellent record year this year and that momentum I think will continue into 2024. And we like how it's positioned.

Speaker 2

We like our strategic initiatives. We like how we're investing for the future in this business. So yes, it's going to be and will remain a significant contributor going forward. Jonathan, what would you add?

Speaker 7

That's a great setup, Chris. And Greg, I would add to that that we look at the trends in a range when we start to plan our future and think about 2024. And in calendar year 2023, a lot

Speaker 2

of those trends turned in

Speaker 7

the right direction in our ranges, but certainly in the right direction within our ranges. We talked about life coming out of the pandemic. That is pulled back into a pretty good spot. We have some continued pricing action that we will execute on in 2024 and a bit beyond. But when you think about where we are in LTD, incidence levels coming into the calendar year, terrific.

Speaker 7

Also our claim team did a wonderful job around recoveries. These have been things going on for us in our disability book, our LTD book for a number of years and we feel like we're in a really good place and the market has also seen some improvement there too. But when we think about when we're headed in 2024, we put a range around that. We're just reminding that there is a range around it. And we would expect these lines of business to continue to contribute and contribute very, very well, supplemental health included, which has also been a big part of our margin story here in the calendar year 'twenty three.

Speaker 2

Greg, one last point. Remember that 6% to 7% we've commented upon before turns into a 14% to 15% tangible ROE. So again, it's another reason why we like this business so much. Margins are generally steady, predictable And our ROEs are very contributory to us and particularly on a tangible basis.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thanks for the detail.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. On the commercial lines guidance to kind of keep underlying margins consistent for 24 versus 23 that obviously would be a margins are at a great absolute level and that would be a Good outcome. Just kind of curious, what your thoughts are, any details on kind of social inflationary lines? A lot of your peers have been kind of embedding a slightly higher loss cost trend on the go forward, getting some IBNR.

Speaker 8

I'm just curious kind of within that outlook, any context around kind of the puts and takes other than workers' comp, which You talked about during the prepared remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. Yes, those are reality of our society today, right? Social inflation, legal system abuse, however you want to call it. So it's alive and well. It's I think new for many, many industry participants, but it is still something you have to be aware of, particularly in the Umbrella and the excess liability lines.

Speaker 2

I'll ask Moe to add his commentary, but I think we've been thoughtful about trends Over the last couple of years and the need to stay on top of those trends with rate and that's why So when I say, particularly, we're looking for an element of consistency with 23 because in a lot of those long tail Liability casualty lines, we need high single to low double digit rate increases to stay on top of the trend assumptions that we have. So yes, it's all part of managing a multiple product line approach. But again, in aggregate, I think the setup is very similar to last year's setup at this time when we talked about it is that there's going to be some slight pressure on comp And we're going to try to maintain and expand margins where possible in other lines of business. But Moe, what would you say specifically in The casualty world?

Speaker 9

Yes, Mike, we're watching these trends closely, and we think the performance has been good. But that being said, we continue to work hard on rate. Chris referenced wholesale casualty accelerated throughout the year. So we're trying to make sure we're keeping rate on top of or at least not ahead if we can ahead of trend. The same thing happened in our middle market GL book, rate accelerated throughout the course of the year.

Speaker 9

So we're working hard on rate. At the same time, we've talked to you about it a couple of times now. We're making sure that the underlying exposure we continue to adjust. So for the past 3, 4 years we've been working hard on the jurisdictions we're in. Our customers are in.

Speaker 9

We're working hard on the limits we're deploying. So there's some long term strategies to give us some confidence in our ability to navigate, which is a difficult environment.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's helpful. And my follow-up is just on Capital Management, I see the guidance there. Just curious, top line growth has been fairly robust, which is obviously a good thing. If the top line growth kind of continues at similar ish levels in 2024, which I assume is a capital user, I mean, should we be Toggling maybe down the buyback levels a bit or am I splitting hairs here?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll let Beth add her color, but I think you're splitting hairs. So our OpCos are well capitalized. You see what we have left In authorization through the end of 'twenty four, our intention is to complete that on a timely basis. But Beth, I don't want to take any more of your thunder.

Speaker 3

Yes. No, I think you said it well, Chris. I mean, I talked about our expectations for dividends From the operating companies in 2024, which is up slightly from 2023. In the past, I've talked about that we typically target about 70% to 80% of the earnings to dividend out of the subs and that provides us with enough room to fund the growth that we're expecting. So really No change in how we're managing the balance sheet and balancing those items.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks. Chris, I was just curious looking at the small commercial business, rate renewal pricing looks good. What do you think about exposure kind of the growth there as we look going forward?

Speaker 4

What are you kind of seeing in that business? Do you think it's going

Speaker 6

to start to slow here in 2024 and could have effect on top line?

Speaker 2

Brian, I know what you're trying to triangulate to. So all I'd say qualitatively on any top line point Because we're not going to give a precise number in aggregate or by line of business is, I think the macro sets up well. I think the economy is performing well. You saw the jobs report this morning and unemployment remains Low, you could see the Fed is being a little cautious on how quickly it cuts rates, which actually we support. So I think the macro sets up well.

Speaker 2

All I would tell you is that what we saw in January, early indications are Much of the same coming out of 2023 and sort of that double digit range in commercial. So 1 month does not make a trend, but I think the environment will be fairly conducive continuing going forward. So we perform very well when the economy is performing well and I think that's the general view I have heading into 2024.

Speaker 4

Great. That's helpful. And then

Speaker 6

just another one here. There was another company that announced some reserving actions and specifically related to the construction liability business. I know Navigators used to write that. Maybe you can talk a little bit about your exposure to that business. Is that an area of concern?

Speaker 6

Just put maybe a little color around that.

Speaker 2

Yes, there's always things to be concerned about and worry about. That's not one of the top ones. And principally because Yes, bluntly, we've been there, done that. Yes, part of our integration and activities with the acquisition we did years ago was to deal with sort of with those balance sheet reserving issues that we knew were there and saw. So I think we've tackled that appropriately.

Speaker 2

I think we've made the adjustments in those older years, adjusted our loss picks and trends going forward. So I feel very Comfortable and confident we got our arms around that issue a couple of years back. Would you add anything, Moe?

Speaker 8

Is that

Speaker 9

So Brian, I'll just say there is an underwriting element here that so when we made the changes and when we had the Navigators book come in, We shifted some of the underwriting in response to some of these trends and that would have been 2, 3, 4 years ago. So we feel good about the go forward book as well.

Speaker 6

Got you. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, thanks. My first question is on capital, I guess, following up on the earlier discussion. So Beth, you said We had $150,000,000 buyback in the Q1, which is in line with the Q4 level. But you did point out, right, like the dividends out of group are going to be a few $100,000,000 higher in 2024 relative to 2023. So I think that that would give you a tailwind to perhaps have a higher level of Buybacks in 2024, is it just timing of dividends?

Speaker 10

And should we think about buybacks picking up in the back three quarters?

Speaker 3

Well, Elyse, I'll start with I mean, we're executing on the share repurchase authorization that we have in place. And that is what we're executing to. And as I said, we expect $350,000,000 in the Q1 and we'll continue to execute on that. As we think about dividends in total for 2024 operating company dividends versus 2023, They're up about $100,000,000 in total. So that all obviously goes into how we think about the balance sheet strength going forward, but not making any changes on our current share repurchase plans.

Speaker 10

Okay, thanks. And then my second question is on the commercial lines guidance. So I think you said underlying margins would be consistent, but Did point to a headwind in workers' comp. As Chris, I know you said pricing there would be flat to negative. And we've gone through the Hartford NEXT program.

Speaker 10

So how do you think about the split between the loss and the expense ratio within commercial When you're coming to like an overall stable underlying margin in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes. Again, at least what I tried to describe is that the setup is similar, right? So if there's pressure in comp, It needs to be offset by other components, non comp in our product lines. You've seen what we've done with accelerating pricing, particularly in the Q4, That mindset continues into 2024. So when I say hold or expand, that's what I mean.

Speaker 2

And, look, I can't predict with the great precision in the top line, but I think there'll be some slight expense leverage that will also contribute overall. So that's what I would say.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Thank you for taking my question. Question about adverse development covers. You have the NECO cover for the asbestos in 2017, you have the Navigators cover from a few years ago. Both are having or about to be exhausted. As a sort of operating principle, when you buy an adverse settlement cover, do you buy it with the expectation that it's likely it's going to be exhausted.

Speaker 11

Is that how it's structured or do you kind of surprise that you get to the end of the cover? Hello? Presenters, you appear to be on mute. I'm not on mute. Hello?

Speaker 11

Hello? Sir, they can hear me, can they? Can they? Hello?

Operator

Presenters, you are currently on mute. Please standby. We're having some technical issues. One moment.

Speaker 11

I'm not muted, but they moved on.

Speaker 2

Josh, can you hear us?

Speaker 11

I can hear you now. Are you there now? Hello?

Speaker 2

Somehow we had a glitch. We had a glitch. We want to answer your question. Don't worry about it. We're not trying to avoid your question.

Speaker 11

I ask tough questions sometimes. And so I was worried it was me. So thank you for taking my question.

Operator

No, no.

Speaker 2

You just gave our IT tech guys a heart attack. So that's okay. So ADC utilization, all I would say is it really depends, Right. I mean, obviously, on the Navigators acquisition, it was part of the purchase price and funding there and Dealing with it. So that's different.

Speaker 2

The A and E deal that we did with Niko, it's just slightly different as far as long term. So if we would do anything again in the future, It would have to be economic for us first off. And a lot of those deals that we did in prior were just in the lower interest rate environment, Just a different part of our development as an organization and our performance. So but the guiding principle that Beth and talk about all the time is just what makes sense from an economic side, because they're not cheap and they're actually expensive. So You give up things to do it to have that economic cover.

Speaker 2

So I would just say, Josh, it depends. And we're going to always try to think in terms of what is the best economics for the shareholders and pursue then the right strategy from there.

Speaker 11

And back when you did the 2017 cover, you were in a different capital position than you are today, I assume. So even if there was a deal available to you today, perhaps it doesn't it's in the urgency is different than it was 7, 8 years ago?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think you got it right, totally. 6, 7, 8 years ago, we were just in a different place. And I just think we're in a better place. We have prudence on the balance sheet that feels good. And So, yes, you're right, totally different place.

Speaker 11

And the other question is also a philosophical one. I was talking to Aileen last night and I think that these are the best commercial results you guys have had almost ever looked at Going back to 2006, there was one quarter that might be better and clearly it's the best group benefits results ever. What do you say to concerns that these might be

Speaker 1

Well,

Speaker 2

we never give up. We keep on pushing ourselves to reset the bar higher, perform better. We have a growth orientation now that I think we've earned the right to Think differently and creatively about the marketplace and activities we can pursue that are profitable and accretive to our Shareholders, Josh, so I would never ever bet against us.

Speaker 11

Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Montemannou from Evercore ISI.

Speaker 12

Just had a question on the property book within Commercial lines, it sounds like you guys had really good growth last year in line with what you guys were saying. How are you thinking about growth growing the property line in 2024. And if there's any sort of mix shift benefit that we should think about coming through incrementally to margins next year?

Speaker 2

David, I would say, we're pleased with what we accomplished this year, but it's not the end of the mission. Brazil is just sort of the beginning. So growing that book about 20 percent to $2,500,000,000 I'm looking at my pricing sheet with overall pricing up on the full portfolio about 16%. Our non cat property weather was essentially on plan for the year between our various business units. So feel really good about the underwriting, the tools, Obviously, our reinsurance programs that Beth talked about, we made adjustments to.

Speaker 2

So we have all the components. Obviously, it's still a constructive marketplace to really build that national diversified book of business that we want to have. So just because you asked and I like you, I'm going to tell you that I think we could produce about $3,000,000,000 of premium next year.

Speaker 12

Awesome. That's great. Thanks for that, Chris. And then maybe just following up Good growth last year in commercial lines, up 10%. I was just wondering if you could just maybe talk about how much exposure maybe contributed to that in 2023?

Speaker 2

Well, the exposure piece I could give you right now that I have in my mind is related to pricing, right? So if you look at our pricing expanding to 8.5% this quarter, about 2.5 points of it is exposure related. So if you go back and look at it's been generally consistent sort of I would say 1 third, 2 thirds. So that's what I have there. But I'll look to Moe and Stephanie, to see if they want to add any color on exposure in personal lines or middle market?

Speaker 5

I'll start, Stephanie, David. From a small commercial perspective, I just want to continue on some of the comments that Chris and Beth made in their prepared remarks. But small commercial will continue to be a growth and earnings engine. You talked about exposure, but we look at many factors in small. We look at new business starts, those remain healthy.

Speaker 5

Unemployment in our sector is healthy. We track small business owner sentiment and the likelihood of them to invest and hire and that is at a high level. And again, audit premiums, again, still strong. So you take all that in combination with the results that we had, dollars 913,000,000 All in, just a new written premium. We grew every line.

Speaker 5

We grew policies in force in every line. And then, As the team referenced that we delivered outstanding underlying in the 4th quarter and then our 14th consecutive quarter of a 90 or below. So the business model is incredibly strong and powered by Exceptional data analytics and an outstanding team. So Chris touched on it. We had an outstanding start to the year, but it's a long way to go.

Speaker 5

But I feel really confident in what we'll be able to continue to deliver. So I look at it broader than just exposure. It's all of those combinations. And then again, from a personal insurance perspective, I think Chris and Beth laid out our mission very well in the auto line as well as in the home line. Home results are very strong as well and that contributes to our growth and our aspiration to be a stronger property market.

Speaker 5

So I'll turn it over to Moe.

Speaker 9

Yes. Many of the same message. I think the exposure growth We are seeing and again across comp property is holding in well and even into January is holding in well. So I think we just we And I think the economy is very supportive there. So David, I don't have much more to add to Stephanie's summary there.

Speaker 12

Got it. Understood. I appreciate the answer.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hi. First one I have to you is on the group benefit dividends up to the holdco took a nice step up. And just looking at the $600,000,000 I mean that's more than the core earnings from 2023 by a It seems to imply that you think some of this strength can continue in 2020 So I just wanted to understand that number a little bit. We don't usually for any type of businesses see distributions in excess of earnings. So Is there any excess capital drawdown there to consider those kind of things?

Speaker 3

Yes, I'll take that Alex. No, I mean again, we're looking at it on statutory basis and obviously dividends out of group benefits have been lower over the last couple of years, given those results. So as we looked at what the Dividend capacity was there for 2024. We felt it was appropriate to increase those dividends.

Speaker 13

Got it. All right. Helpful. Just on the going back to the environmental And given we got to think about it a little harder with ADC closer to being used up. I know you mentioned the PFAS.

Speaker 13

Could you give us a sense of what kind of adjustments were made around PFAS? And is that related to any specific developments? Do we need to think about that is something that could impact things going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, again, I think we've mentioned PFAS on environmental, the last couple of years. And Overall, when you look at what the increase was for environmental, not overly significant or a big change from where we've been. So I wouldn't point to anything unusual there. It's just as we went through our study this year and just looked at all components, saw some increases in some of the remediation costs.

Speaker 3

And As is our practice, I'm not going to talk about specific accounts and where that came from.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Ms. Susan Spivak for some final closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you so much for all joining us

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Earnings Conference Call
Village Super Market Q4 2023
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