Tactile Systems Technology Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 20, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the 4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call for Tactile Medical. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. At the end of the company's prepared remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note that this conference call is being to your questions today may contain forward looking statements that are based on the current expectations of management and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, which could cause the actual results to differ materially from those indicated, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10 ks, as well as our most recent 10 Q filings to be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such factors may be updated from time to time in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website.

Operator

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward looking statements as a result of the new information, future events or otherwise. This call will include references to certain financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with General Accepted Accounting Principles or GAAP, we generally refer to these non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of those non GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP are available in our earnings press release on the Investor Relations portion of our website. Today's call will be hosted by Dan Rivers, Tactile's Medical's President and Chief Executive Officer along with Elaine Burkemeier, Tactile's Chief Financial Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

Operator

Revers. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thanks, operator, and welcome everyone to our Q4 fiscal year earnings call. Let me provide a quick agenda for today's call. I'll start with an overview of our Q4 financial results and the primary factors that contributed to our performance, followed by a review of some of our recent operational highlights. Elaine will then cover our quarterly financial results in further detail and review our 2024 financial guidance, which we introduced in our earnings press release this morning. And I'll conclude by discussing our outlook and strategic priorities for 2024 before we open the call for questions.

Speaker 1

With that as a backdrop, let's begin with an overview of our financial performance. We were pleased to demonstrate revenue growth in both lymphedema and airway clearance products, post record quarterly profit and further strengthen our balance sheet by continuing to generate solid cash flow from operations and retiring our line of credit entirely. In the Q4, we generated revenue of $77,700,000 representing 5% growth on a year over year basis. Our 4th quarter performance enabled us to achieve our guidance for the fiscal year. Our year over year revenue growth was largely driven by performance of our lymphedema product line, which grew 6% year over year to $69,500,000 We're also pleased to see better than expected sales of our airway clearance products, which totaled $8,200,000 in the 4th quarter, representing 16% on a quarter over quarter basis and 1% growth compared to prior year period despite transient headwinds.

Speaker 1

We complemented our revenue performance with notable improvements in profitability, which exceeded our expectations for the 4th quarter. GAAP net income increased 77% year over year and adjusted EBITDA grew 27% year over year. Our performance in the 4th quarter reflects our enduring commitment to enhancing our profitability profile. We also generated $18,400,000 of cash flow from operations, driven by our strong net income results and continued improvements in working capital. We paid off our $16,800,000 line of credit during the Q4 as well as our final $5,600,000 contingent consideration payment related to our acquisition of Aflovest, ending the quarter with $61,000,000 in cash.

Speaker 1

All in all, we were pleased to close out 2023 with solid financial performance in the 4th quarter, while further strengthening our balance sheet. Turning to a more detailed discussion of the drivers of our 4th quarter sales performance. The growth in our lymphedema product line was driven by the enhanced productivity of our field sales team, which continued to benefit from our initiatives to improve their operational efficiency and enhance our product offering. Our continued efforts to reduce the time our reps devote to non selling benefited from our patient trainers' assistance. Most notably, our patient trainers conducted Entering 2023, less than 10% of all in home patient demos were conducted by our patient trainers.

Speaker 1

We reached roughly 30% by year end, providing our reps with additional time to engage with prescribers. We're excited by the success of this initiative and we believe there's an opportunity to make further progress on this front in 2024 as well. During the Q4, we continued to see a favorable response to our new products. In particular, Entre Plus, our next generation Entre system has had a stronger than expected showing since its launch in March and we continued to see impressive adoption of the system during the Q4. The user centric enhancements made to Entre Plus system continue to be warmly received by patients, including features like active garment deflation, its easy to use LCD controller and its ability to treat 2 limbs simultaneously.

Speaker 1

We've also improved our team's level of focus on the largest segment of patients that qualify for a basic pneumatic compression device. As a reminder, insurers like CMS require patients to initiate therapy with a device in this category like our Entre Plus system before they may ultimately become eligible for an advanced device like our Flexitouch Plus system. In keeping with our broader focus as an organization on developing relationships with patients earlier in their treatment paradigm, our team has been working to ensure that a larger portion of these patients begin their active therapy with our Entre Plus system. The introduction of this system combined with our enhanced focus on this portion of our addressable patient population was an important contributor to our performance in the quarter. Likewise, the launch of upper extremity Comfort EASE garments during the Q3 provided our sales reps with an enhanced offering for patients with oncology related lymphedema.

Speaker 1

Our ComfortEase upper extremity garments are used with Flexitouch and include improved therapeutic coverage of the axillary region, an important treatment area for those suffering from breast cancer related lymphedema. They also allow for bilateral treatment of the upper extremities, enabling patients with lymphedema in both arms to complete their treatment in roughly half the time. In the months following our launch, we're seeing strong sales to patients with breast cancer related lymphedema and we look forward to continuing to enhance our focus on this portion of our addressable patient population as well. We also finished the year with a field sales team of 254 supporting our lymphedema products, a small increase in salespeople compared to 246 at the end of the 3rd quarter. With respect to our airway clearance product line, while sales remain paced by 1 large DME that returned to pre COVID criteria in May, we were heartened to see their ordering volume improved sequentially relative to the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 1

We were also pleased to see continued growth in sales to our other DME customers. Together, these improvements enabled us to generate growth of 16% on a sequential quarterly basis and return to growth on a year over year basis as well. As we've commented on previously, the large affected DME customer experienced slower placements following the expiration of COVID-nineteen Public Health Emergency or PHE waiver in May of 2023. They've taken advantage of the relaxed eligibility requirements under the PHE waiver and the return to traditional pre COVID eligibility requirements has continued to slow their volumes. While sales to this one large DME will likely remain paced by the impact of the PHE waiver expiration until its anniversary in May of 2024, we continue to expect strong sustained growth longer term as we expand penetration of the large underserved bronchiectasis patient population.

Speaker 1

To that end, we made investments in our Airway Clearance sales team in the Q4, expanding to 16 dedicated DME sales reps in order to enhance the level support we provide our DME customers and their reps. In addition to our commercial and financial progress during the Q4, we continued our efforts to develop the markets we serve by supporting the education of clinicians and patients and investing in new clinical evidence. Our medical affairs team made strong progress throughout 2023. For the full year, we hosted nearly 100 educational events focused on lymphedema diagnosis, its comorbidities and its available treatments. Through this programming, we were able to reach over 7,200 clinicians, record outreach for Tactile Medical.

Speaker 1

Most recently, we hosted a number of targeted educational events focused on specific populations of patients, including those with breast cancer related lymphedema, which we believe resonated with the clinicians managing their care. On the airway clearance side of the business, we also initiated our 1st educational programming focused on bronchiectasis with 3 on demand continuing education courses available on the Knowledge Center Education Portal of our website. These courses were developed by subject matter experts and accredited through the American Association of Respiratory Care, California Board of Registered Nurses and Commission for Case Managers, enabling respiratory therapists, nurses and case managers to earn continuing education credits by completing them. Meanwhile, this past year, our Kiley mobile application provided more than 22,000 users with direct access to educational resources as well as tools to track their symptoms and monitor disease progression. And finally, we continue to progress through the enrollment phase of our multicenter randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating Flexitouch for the treatment of lymphedema among head and neck cancer survivors.

Speaker 1

With 187 subjects enrolled in the trial at year end, this trial compares the effectiveness of the Flexitouch system to standard care practices over a 6 month duration. Outcome measures include both physical improvements as well as biosocial quality of life results. And based on the recent pace of progress, we expect to complete enrollment by the end of the Q1. Given the 6 month patient follow-up period, we anticipate sharing the initial results near the end of the year. We look forward to sharing the results of this trial, the largest RCT ever conducted among head and neck lymphedema patients to influence payers, clinicians and patients.

Speaker 1

And before I turn it over to Elaine, I'd like to share some additional on our performance in 2023 as a whole. Simply stated, our team achieved considerable progress this past year across multiple areas, strengthening our market leadership position, executing on our commercial strategy and delivering strong financial performance, including double digit revenue growth and 62% growth in adjusted EBITDA this year. From a market leadership standpoint, we introduced multiple patient centered design enhancements to optimize our product portfolio, including the 1st generational update to our Entre system since its original introduction. As I just mentioned, our education resources reached record levels of clinicians and patients. And we provided our lymphedema and airway clearance therapies to more than 77,000 patients suffering from chronic conditions that we address.

Speaker 1

Through our efforts to drive operational efficiency by improving the productivity of our sales force, we delivered revenue growth of 14% in our lymphedema product line for the full fiscal year, our 1st year of double digit growth in this product line since 2019. This enabled us to deliver significant sales and marketing leverage with just 1% growth in this expense line versus 2022. We generated record profitability for the year with $28,500,000 of GAAP net income, while improving our adjusted EBITDA margins by 3.40 basis points to 10.8%. And from a cash flow perspective, our strong net income results combined with material improvements in our working capital performance enabled us to generate nearly $36,000,000 of cash flow from operations. Along with the $35,000,000 in net proceeds raised through our underwritten public offering of common stock last February, our financial condition has materially improved.

Speaker 1

We ended 2023 with $61,000,000 of cash while paying off the final $10,600,000 earn out payments associated with the Aflobest acquisition and reducing our outstanding debt by almost $20,000,000 I'm proud of our accomplishments across each of these areas, made possible by the efforts of our entire team at Tactile Medical, which will leave us incrementally better positioned to drive profitable growth and strong cash generation going forward. Elaine will now review our Q4 financial results in more detail and discuss our 2024 guidance. Elaine?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dan. Unless noted otherwise, all references to 4th quarter financial results are on a GAAP and year over year basis. Total revenue in the 4th quarter increased $3,800,000 or 5.1 percent to $77,700,000 By product line, sales and rentals of lymphedema products, which include our Flexitouch and Entre systems increased $3,700,000 or 5.6 percent to $69,500,000 and sales of our Airwood clearance products, which include our Apple Vest system increased $52,000 or 0.6 percent to $8,200,000 Continuing down the P and L. Gross margin was 72.1 percent of revenue compared to 70.5% in the Q4 of 2022. Non GAAP gross margin, which excludes non cash intangible amortization in both periods, was 72.5% compared to 71.2% in the prior year.

Speaker 2

The increase in non GAAP gross margin was attributable to lower freight and manufacturing costs as well as improved product pricing. 4th quarter operating expenses decreased $40,000 or 0.1 percent to $44,200,000 The change in GAAP operating expenses reflected a $1,000,000 decrease in non cash intangible asset amortization and earn out expense, a $500,000 decrease in sales and marketing expenses and a $300,000 decrease in research and development expenses. These items were largely offset by reimbursement general and administrative expenses, which increased $1,800,000 Operating income increased $4,000,000 or 50.3 percent to $11,800,000 The improvement in operating income was driven by a $3,900,000 or 7.5 percent increase in our gross profit as well as the aforementioned $40,000 decrease in our operating expenses. Non GAAP operating income increased $3,200,000 or 34 percent to $12,700,000 As a reminder, our non GAAP operating income excludes non cash intangible amortization and earn out expense as well as certain non reoccurring operating expenses in the prior year period. We provided a detailed GAAP to non GAAP reconciliation in our earnings press release.

Speaker 2

Other expense net decreased $900,000 or 96.2 percent to $36,000 The decrease was primarily due to lower net interest expense. Income tax expense increased $1,300,000 or 56.3 percent to $3,600,000 The year over year change in income tax expense was driven primarily by higher taxable income. Net income increased $3,600,000 or 77 percent to $8,200,000 or $0.35 per diluted share compared to $4,600,000 or $0.23 per diluted share. Non GAAP net income increased $3,000,000 or 52 percent to $8,900,000 compared to $5,900,000 Adjusted EBITDA increased $3,300,000 to $15,400,000 or 19.8 percent of sales compared to $12,100,000 or 16.3 percent of sales. With respect to our balance sheet, we had $61,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents and $29,300,000 of outstanding borrowings at year end.

Speaker 2

This compares to $21,900,000 in cash and $49,000,000 of outstanding borrowings as of December 31, 2022. Turning to a review of our 2024 outlook, which we introduced in our earnings press release today. We expect full year 2024 total revenue in the range of $300,000,000 to $305,000,000 representing growth of approximately 9% to 11% year over year. Our 2024 total revenue guidance range assumes that revenue in both our lymphedema and Earwig Clearance product lines will also grow in a similar range of 9% to 11% year over year. For modeling purposes, for the full year 2024, we expect our GAAP gross margins to be approximately flat to prior year, our GAAP operating expenses to increase approximately 10% to 11%, interest expense of approximately $600,000 a tax rate of 30% and a fully diluted weighted average share count of approximately 24,000,000 shares.

Speaker 2

We also expect to generate adjusted EBITDA of approximately $33,000,000 to $35,000,000 in 2024. Our adjusted EBITDA expectation assumes certain non cash items including stock compensation expense of approximately $7,700,000 intangible amortization of approximately $3,800,000 and depreciation expense of approximately $3,000,000 Lastly, in the Q1 of 2024, we expect our total revenue to increase in the range of flat to up low single digits year over year. With that, I'll turn the call back to Dan for some closing remarks. Dan?

Speaker 1

Thanks, Elaine. As Elaine mentioned, our guidance reflects growth in both our lymphedema and Airway Clearance product lines for the full year. It also assumes that more of our full year growth will be driven by our performance in the second half of the year as prior year comparisons ease and we realize the benefits of our 2024 strategic initiatives, which I'll walk through now. As we look to 2024, we're focused on delivering another balanced year of double digit revenue growth coupled with continued improvements in operating profitability by executing the following 3 strategic priorities. First, we remain focused on driving growth in both our therapy segments.

Speaker 1

This will include adding sales reps to both our lymphedema and respiratory teams in the first half of twenty twenty four. We also plan to contribute to ongoing gains in sales rep productivity by expanding in home demo support among our patient trainers. As I mentioned earlier, with roughly 30% of in home patient demos conducted by our patient trainers at the end of 2023, we see more opportunity to build on the success of this initiative in 2024, freeing up even more time for our lymphedema sales reps to engage with prescribing clinicians. We expect to continue our increased level of focus on entry level pump placements with our improved Entre Plus system. Knowing that so many patients enter the therapeutic funnel with an entry level pump either due to initial symptoms or payer requirements, we plan to compete vigorously to provide whatever therapy the patient qualifies for.

Speaker 1

And for the Aflobez front, we intend to not only expand our sales specialist headcount, but to work on onboarding additional DMEs, showing them that Aflovest is becoming a valuable part of the respiratory DME arsenal and a new offering for them to compete with. 2nd, 2024 will be a year of investment in tech related tools throughout our business. We'll be streamlining various back office processes, applying AI to interpret incoming orders and direct them with less manual processing as well as more efficient electronic method of verifying patient benefits. We're evaluating more efficient exchange of prescriptions and medical records with a more frictionless electronic medical record system targeted for deployment in the second half of twenty twenty four. And we're planning to introduce new customer relationship management tools later in 2024 as another way to further enhance sales force productivity.

Speaker 1

These are important investments designed to improve our efficiency, reduce operating expense and leverage the best of technology. And 3rd, we'll continue to focus on improving the customer experience. That will include the introduction of a next generation lymphedema therapy platform by the end of the year as well as advancing a next generation Aflobez system targeted for 2025. New generations of our therapeutic systems will focus on consumer friendly attributes as we recognize patients depend on our therapies daily and thus our therapies become an important expression of their lifestyle. We'll also focus on connectivity, ensuring that patients get the education and feedback they need to manage their conditions effectively.

Speaker 1

As I mentioned earlier, we also recognize the health care practitioner as a key customer as much as the patient. And with this in mind, some of our tech investments are designed to make their role in helping patients obtain treatment as unobtrusively to their practice as possible. These are the moves that you should expect of a market leader. With increasing sales productivity and enhanced portfolio of products and solutions and strong customer relationships, we look forward to building on our success from 2023. Before concluding my remarks today, I'd like to thank our employees for their tremendous efforts this past year, which made our collective progress possible.

Speaker 1

Thanks as well to our customers and investors for their continued support. Operator, we'll now open the call for questions.

Speaker 3

Thank Our first question comes from the line of Adam Maeder with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning, Dan and Elaine. Thank you for taking the questions. Congrats on a solid Q4 and great to see the leverage in the quarter. I wanted to ask about the guidance construction on the top line for 2024, the 305,000,000 to 305,000,000 dollars I think that's 9% to 11% growth. Can you just help us understand how you framed the expectations for growth for both lymphedema and AploVest.

Speaker 4

I think I heard they're expected to both kind of grow around that range, but wanted to confirm that. And then also just I guess understand what's contemplated for those segments and how you arrived at those figures? And then I

Speaker 5

had a follow-up. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Sure, Adam. Thanks for the questions. Let me start with a little bit of color on the growth drivers for 2024 and then maybe I'll ask Elaine to weigh in on some of the additional assumptions. I think if we look back certainly at 2023, just for context, I think we recognized and were able to demonstrate where growth can come from. Really 3 key areas in our recent past and our performance was attributed in the past to adding heads, and we know that the heads we added in 2022 became productive in 2023 and contributed pretty meaningfully.

Speaker 1

PEC support that we've continued to expand to liberate the sales force has led to more productivity. We saw about 14 process. Remember, at the beginning of last year, we introduced the elimination of the process. Remember at the beginning of last year, we introduced the elimination of the CMN, courtesy of Medicare in an easier form. And all of those things we talked about were nice contributors.

Speaker 1

So as we look into 2024, increasing headcount in the first half is part of the playbook again. We added just a few in December, but we expect to add some additional heads in the first half of this year, and that should be a growth driver as we get into the back half. This whole productivity piece, we think that probably half of the growth that we'll be able to deliver this year can come from some continued expansion in productivity. The fact that we had about 30% of the in home demos done now by someone other than the sales force certainly proved productive last year, and we think that there's more runway to expand as we enter into the second half. And then the whole HCP experience is a really important one that we've recognized can influence prescriber behavior.

Speaker 1

The easier we can make it for them, the more they'll will be their therapy of choice. And I think that patients that need therapy don't get overlooked when it's an easier, less obtrusive process. So we're going to continue to invest in some electronic tools that will make it a much more easy process for HCPs to submit those orders. I think on the Afloves side, we've talked a little bit about the fact that we have to lap that May event with the 1 DME, but we're going to invest in more salespeople there as well. We added a few in the Q4, and we'll add some additional heads in the first half of the year.

Speaker 1

And then continuing to focus on expanding branch participation, not only among the DMEs we already work with, but piloting some new DMEs. And I think all of those things should certainly contributors as we look into the balance of 2024 as well. I don't know if Elaine, you've got a couple of comments on some of these other assumptions.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think maybe the only thing I would add is, the adjusted EBITDA guidance we provided does suggest a small improvement in EBITDA margin. We will continue looking at driving productivity and getting operating expense leverage. But as Dan mentioned, we are making investments this year in headcount growth as well as technology. So we don't expect large improvements, but we do expect a modest one.

Speaker 2

And then secondly, we are going to continue to focus on increasing our free cash flow. We made great strides last year, close to $33,000,000 of free cash flow improvement. We will continue to look at driving free cash flow both from our profitability as well as continued improvements in working capital. I will say the working capital improvements won't be to the same extent as last year, but we do still think there's runway to continue to work on improving our collections, which has fueled a lot of the growth last year.

Speaker 4

That's great color. Appreciate the fulsome response there. And Elena, I think you just ticked the box on my second question on the leverage piece, but maybe I'll stick with the financials. And I guess I wanted to ask about the LRP that you've previously outlined. I think on the top line, it's $350,000,000 plus in 2025 of revenue.

Speaker 4

Just wondering if and I think that would imply kind of an acceleration to growth in 2025 over 2024. So what can you tell us about how we should think about the LRP? Does that still stand firm? And are you comfortable with the acceleration in growth that's kind of implied for 2025? Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 1

Yes. Let me take a shot at that one, Adam. So first of all, our 2025 targets are still our good targets, we believe. I think that staying focused on revenue, profitability expansion, free cash flow, those are still very much in sight. I think we've certainly made good progress in 2023 against those.

Speaker 1

I mean, if you reflect on the first of this 3 year window that we laid out, our lymphedema growth of 14% in 2023 was actually a little ahead of our expectations. The 30 $33,000,000 of cash flow was ahead of our expectations. And then as we know, we kind of lost a year on Aflovest. So some puts and takes happened in 2023. Plenty of work left to do, but I think we still expect that when we exit 2024, one of the reasons growth isn't always perfectly linear, we think that we're really going to be nicely positioned for some additional inflection points.

Speaker 1

I mean, if we think about from a growth standpoint, we're going to have more reps at the end of the year, presumably hitting their stride on productivity, both in lymphedema and the airway clearance side. We should have an optimized home demo assignment, so continuing to expand the productivity of applying those to the right people on the team. Some of the tech deployed EMR medical record exchanges that we're investing in this year should be more operational at the beginning of 2025. Some of the new products that I alluded to, I think the head and neck results that we'll be able to socialize through 2025 and then just some of the normalized Aflow growth that we're not going to have to confront in the first half of this year, next year. So I think we'll be certainly entering the on ramp of 2025 with some good momentum at our back, and those are the targets that we're still pursuing for sure.

Speaker 4

Thanks for the color, Dan.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Zimmerman with BTIG.

Speaker 6

Dan and Elaine, this is Izzy on for Ryan. So just first to start off on guidance. Heard your comments on expecting the Q1 to be flat to up low single digits, but I was wondering if you could provide a little bit of color on what's driving that expectation and how you're thinking about the cadence or pacing for both revenue and margins for the balance of the year?

Speaker 1

Yes. Let me I'll start and then if Elaine has anything she wants to add. I think as we thought about Izzy in the Q1, we know Aflo is going to be a bit of a headwind as we called out earlier. So that's when we have to offset for. We had somewhat modest lymphedema guidance in the Q1 in part because we probably don't benefit quite as much from the demo assignments in the Q1.

Speaker 1

It's a quarter we have the highest co pays since patients' co pays reset. So, our sales I would say, is a bit more protective of allocating some of those in the Q1. We added headcount, started in December and we'll continue to add some more heads in the first half of this year. But as we know, those heads historically won't be really productive until the second half. And I think if you look at it from a historical standpoint, it's a step down sequentially of somewhere in the mid-twenty percent from Q4, which is pretty typical.

Speaker 1

If you looked over the last 3 or 4 years, I think history would show that that's pretty much in the normal range. And I think the last one is, it is the quarter where we're going to have the toughest comp. It's a little bit of an inverted scenario from last year where we had the easiest comps at the beginning of the year and they progressively got more difficult. We kind of turned it upside down. So getting past Q1, I think, those are some of the assumptions that we had applied in.

Speaker 6

Great. That's really helpful. Thank you. And then just a follow-up for me. So what are you guys thinking about or how are you thinking about the impact from faster Medicare collections in terms of cash flow and your subsequent use of cash?

Speaker 2

Yes. So I think as I alluded to a little earlier, we do think there's still opportunity for us to continue to work on improving our cash collections and improving working capital. That being said, we made a lot of traction last year. And so to expect to repeat that, we don't think is unrealistic, but we do think there's still some runway ahead for the year. As far as kind of use of cash, I think one thing we did do at the end of the year was retire our line of credit.

Speaker 2

We also completed our AppleVeth earn out. As we look forward, we still have more debt that we have to continue to service and we are making investments in technology and headcount that Dan alluded to. But clearly, this stronger balance sheet position that we're proud to now have does offer us some good optionality as we think about continuing to grow the business in the future.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Margaret Andrew with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the questions. There's a couple of things I wanted to follow-up on. And so first, I wanted to talk a little bit about Q1 guidance. Dan, I know you just said that maybe it's typical of historical sequential patterns.

Speaker 7

If I look at like 2018 2019, it's typically maybe in the mid-20s, maybe even in kind of like the 23%, down 24%. But it seems like it's maybe a little bit worse. And I guess I'm asking because Q4 obviously was also a little bit lighter relative to typical seasonal patterns for Q4. So I guess is there anything else underlying, is it maybe you didn't quite have the number of sales reps or so on and so that starts to change trajectory throughout 2024. But just wanted to push on that seasonality pattern, especially as it implies for Q1 and pushes more of that pressure into the second half of the year for growth.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Margaret. So yes, I think our current guidance suggests a decline in Q1 of about 25% to 27%. So if you take a look back, it's fairly similar. I went back to 2020 and it's in line with what we've seen over the past several years.

Speaker 2

I think as we think about Q1 and what Dan mentioned, again, it will be our hardest comp. We had a 22% growth last quarter, and we're making a lot of investments in this first half of the year, which really will accelerate growth in the back half, the sales rep adds, the technology. And I think the other thing just to note that we saw in Q4 and we'll continue to see is in this year as well is that Entre growth continues to outpace Flexitouch. We're still growing Flexitouch, but the Entre growth, as Dan mentioned, is a bigger segment that we've chosen to focus on. And that does mute growth a little bit in the sense that our patient served is actually growing faster than our revenue growth.

Speaker 2

And so that's another piece that we saw in Q4 and we'll continue to see in Q1 as well.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then the second thing that I wanted to push on a little bit as well is that 2025 LRP. And so again, just to put some finer numbers on it, if I look at what that implies for 2025, you do need a 15% top line growth number in 2025, 25, which is maybe up from 10%, right, just this year. So 50% acceleration, I guess, in sales growth and a pretty sizable kind of margin expansion of 300 basis points plus. So as you kind of look at that, are you assuming a meaningful uptick in head and neck or acceleration relative to that next generation system to reach those numbers?

Speaker 7

And then kind of a similar comment on the margin side, What gets you to get that pretty meaningful step up as you go into 2025? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Sure, Margaret. As I said, it's tough to do a 3 year plan linearly, but if you looked at 2023, 14% lymphedema growth was ahead of the 13% CAGR we'd kind of put out there for a 3 year window. So I think that while we expect this might be a little bit less than that in 2024, There are some things that we think are going to be really well positioned as we enter 2025. Remember, last year, we added 0 heads, and we just got productivity out of the ones from the past in expanding demo performance with other allied support folks in the training side. We think that there's still opportunity to continue to expand that in the second half of this year.

Speaker 1

And we would enter next year then with a higher productivity profile presumably in our entire sales force along with some folks that we would add in the first half of this year that should be entering 2025 with just a naturally higher trained productivity quotient on top of it. This tech employed or deployed work that we're working on to try and simplify the process for HCPs to submit their referrals, it's not an insignificant one. We saw at the beginning of last year that when we can make things a little bit easier, whether through forms or process, it does actually have an impact on prescriber behavior. So the investments that we're making this year are intended to introduce by the back half of this year an electronic EMR experience that should be easier for the prescriber. And we think that influences their vendor choice and it also influences, just the volume of patients they'll take the time to prescribe for.

Speaker 1

Head and neck, as you alluded to, that one's certainly going to be a more contributor once the results are complete this year into next year. And I think the other one is we've clearly stated that Aflovest is going to have a headwind in the first half of this year, and we'll have a more normalized expectation for next year. So I think there's reason to believe that our top line growth can have some ebbs and flows, but we think that, as I said, we should enter the on ramp of 2025 with some things nicely set at the table. I think from a profitability standpoint, I'll just let Elaine add a little bit of color to the other half of the question.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think as I mentioned, 2024, we don't expect large EBITDA margin gains. And really this is we've got sales reps that we will be carrying on our books that are not going to achieve productivity until later in the year. Similarly, we'll be making investments in technology that we will not have fully ramped in adoption until later in the year. So those things change in 2025.

Speaker 2

Those are now fully productive assets. And we will continue to have the opportunity to optimize once they're in place to see further OpEx improvement. So that's really why that profile for 2025 we think is going to look different from an EBITDA margin expansion compared to 2024.

Speaker 3

Thank you, guys. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Suraj Kalia with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Dan, Elaine. Can you hear me all right?

Speaker 2

We can. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Pardon the background noise. Hey, Don. So let me stick with some SRP questions, okay, short range. Specifically, you all mentioned sales rep productivity is up 14% year over year. The number of in home training is up 30% or exited at 30%.

Speaker 5

And Lipotiva sales are up 6% year over year. So maybe, Dan, help dissect this. I know it's not a linear correlation, but how much incremental rep productivity is there in the existing sales force? And how is the decision made to add more heads versus squeeze extra productivity going into 2024 maybe 2025?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think good question. Look, we still believe, as we said, Suraj, that there is additional productivity by expanding the demos being reassigned. I think that said, we still fashion ourselves as a growth company And we want to make sure that we're continuing to invest in growth. And I don't think that it's binary, right?

Speaker 1

It's not continue to expand productivity and abandon the expansion of the sales force headcount. I think it's a combination of the 2 that we intend to continue. And I think trying to find the right balance in those is what we're certainly striving for, Having been able to deliver double digit growth on a relatively flat headcount last year, I think, demonstrated the productivity gains were real. But knowing that still only roughly a third of those in home demos have been taken off the plate of the sales force, that means that there's more opportunity. So kind of how we thought about Suraj is for 2024, it's probably half the growth comes from increased productivity as we continue to make some of the improvements that we've talked about.

Speaker 1

And then the other half ultimately probably comes from adding headcount, but that's more a second half contribution. We know we don't hire between December and the first half of this year and just flip a switch and they become productive. So we would expect them to be contributing more in the back half like our historical lead time has looked like. And that should certainly, as I mentioned in a previous question, put us in a much better position as we enter 2025 as well with another step up in sales force for the most part having all achieved kind of their productivity targets and an increased number of that.

Speaker 5

Got it. Elaine, I'll send one question your way. So Elaine, how should we think about same store, new store growth in the quarter? And also moving forward, should we think about more about OpEx leverage rather than the typical mantra of growth top line growth at all costs? Thank you for taking

Operator

my questions.

Speaker 2

So yes, I think Suraj, to your first question there around the new store same store, I think there is still good opportunity for us to continue to both acquire and work with new prescribers as well as to increase volume from existing prescribers. So it's we're pursuing both angles as we look at both our vascular and oncology and lymphatic therapist spaces. As far as OpEx, could you repeat that part of the question one more time?

Speaker 5

So, Elayne, what I was just trying to understand is, should we expect OpEx leverage? I mean, you'll generate a pretty good OpEx leverage in the quarter. Is that what we should keep expecting moving forward? And is that coming at a cost of investing for top line growth at any cost? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So I think for this year, we are still achieving OpEx leverage, but we're also making investments. And I think we're doing both, which is why the OpEx leverage is not larger. As you look at last year, we drove OpEx leverage to a great extent. This year, we still have opportunity to do so, but it will be muted by continued investment. As I just mentioned, when you think about 2025, those investments then will be largely done and behind us and now at scale where we can generate more efficiencies.

Speaker 2

And so we would expect to see more operating margin expansion in 2025 as well.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you. We are currently seeing no remaining questions at this time. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation.

Speaker 4

Thanks everyone.

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Earnings Conference Call
Tactile Systems Technology Q4 2023
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