Granite Construction Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 22, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Andrea, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Granite Investor Relations 4th Quarter 2023 Conference Call. This call is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise and all the speakers' remarks.

Operator

And after the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer period. Please note, we will take one question and one follow-up question from each participant today. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Granite Construction Incorporated Vice President of Investor Relations, Mike Barker. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be here today with President and Chief Executive Officer, Kyle Larkin and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Lisa Curtis. Please note that today's earnings presentation will be available on the Events and Presentations page of our Investor Relations website. We begin today with a brief discussion regarding forward looking statements and non GAAP measures. Some of the discussion today may include forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Speaker 1

These forward looking statements are estimates reflecting the current expectations and best judgment of senior management regarding future events, occurrences, opportunities, targets, growth, demand, strategic plans, circumstances, activities, performance, shareholder value, outcomes, outlook, guidance, objectives, committed and awarded projects or CAF and results. Actual results could differ materially from statements made today. Please refer to Granite's most recent 10 ks and 10 Q filings for a more complete description of risk factors that could affect these forward looking statements. The company assumes no obligation to update forward looking statements except as required by law. Certain non GAAP measures may be discussed during today's call and from time to time by the company's executives.

Speaker 1

These include, but are not limited to, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share. The required disclosures regarding our non GAAP measures are included as part of our earnings press releases and in company presentation, which are available on our website graniteconstruction.com under Investor Relations. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Kyle Larkin.

Speaker 2

Good morning, and welcome to our Q4 conference call. I'm excited to talk about how we closed the year. Across the company, our teams had an outstanding 4th quarter. But before I discuss the details and highlights of the quarter, I would like to revisit some significant accomplishments during 2023. Previously, we laid out our investment framework for growth as part of our 2024 strategic plan.

Speaker 2

Our growth strategy is built upon 2 pillars, support and strengthen and expand and transform. When we support and strengthen, we focus on developing and strengthening our core competencies and growing our home markets. As we work to expand and transform, we grow our business with more transformative investments, both in our home markets and new geographies. Over the course of 20222023, we work to support and strengthen our businesses. In our construction segment, we strengthened our home markets by selecting the right owners, projects, subcontractors and vendors, while leveraging our local market intelligence to win more projects at higher margins.

Speaker 2

We selected work suited to our core competencies We constructed these projects with high levels of customer satisfaction without the types of claims that play legacy work. In our Materials segment, we invested in our home markets through bolt on acquisitions, equipment and plant automation projects and by investing in additional higher grade reserves. We have had a lot of success strengthening our home markets. Texas is a good example. According to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, Texas led country and state and local government transportation construction contract awards is 16,000,000,000 dollars The next closest state, California is at 9,000,000,000 across the Southeast and Midwest.

Speaker 2

Since we began implementing our 2024 strategic plan several years ago, the Texas region has focused on Dallas Fort Worth and Houston. Although Granite has been in both of these markets for more than 15 years and has strong relationships with the Texas DOT, labor pool, subcontractors and vendors, we missed opportunities to strengthen those relationships as we pursued work across the country. Both metros are growth markets with good funding and resilient pipeline for a range of projects in different end markets, including transportation, water, airports and private site development. In 2023, we applied a targeted and selected bidding strategy to leverage our strengths and competitive advantages to build the de risk portfolio of projects. These projects have an average cap size 30,000,000 per project as of the end of the year.

Speaker 2

Both the size and quality of the cap is a significant improvement from the historical cap of the Texas region. On the material side, across the company, we supported and strengthened the business with significant investments and reserves, targeted automation projects and aggregate quarries and the consummation of bolt on acquisitions. First, acquisitions. In 2023, we completed 2 bolt on aggregate acquisitions that added strategic capabilities to our home markets. The first was the purchase of the Brunswick Canyon quarry and asphalt plants in Carson City, Nevada.

Speaker 2

The Brunswick Canyon quarry added 17,000,000 tons of reserves and expanded our home markets vertically integrated reach in Northern Nevada. We also purchased Coast Mountain Resources, which operates the Bamberton quarry on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Bamberton Quarry added 40,000,000 tons of reserves. A evaluating bolt on acquisition opportunities and believe we continue to grow our home market footprint by and through similar feature acquisitions. Hiregift facility automation projects have been another focus, like our recently completed Swan Hiregift facility in Tucson, Arizona.

Speaker 2

The new plant that were just automated technology to produce aggregates at lower costs, while minimizing night and weekend shifts, thereby reducing workforce challenges. The second automation project is expected to be completed at our Celery facility in Bakersfield, California during the Q1 of 2024. While not suitable for all plants, we expect to continue to roll out automation technology to additional aggregate facilities in our network in 2024 2025. Moving forward, we intend to continue making investments to support and strengthen our home markets. We also look for growth opportunities through investments that will expand and transform our business.

Speaker 2

The acquisition of Lehman Roberts Company and Memphis Stone and Gravel Company is a good example of such an investment. Lehman operates 7 strategically located asphalt plants serving the Greater Memphis area in Northern Mississippi, While Memphis Stone and Gravel operates 3 sand and gravel mines with an additional mine expected to be operational during the Q1 of 2024, happening in total 82,000,000 tons of reserves. I previously discussed the fact that we are interested in acquiring well run businesses that can be a platform for growth. The types of businesses that we would consider operate in a market that is healthy and growing and have strong leadership that will continue post acquisition, just like Lehman and Memphis Town. They are longstanding, well regarded companies that are positioned for growth.

Speaker 2

The acquisition expands Grant's footprint into the Southeast in the attractive growing Memphis metropolitan market. The leadership team is staying and will continue to lead and grow the businesses. We expect Lehman and Memphis Stone to add approximately $200,000,000 in revenue in 2024 with consistent high profitability between 15% 20% EBITDA margin. We're excited to build on the platform this acquisition provides in growing the Southeast in 2024 and beyond. Now, before I dive into the segments, I'd like to touch on what we are seeing related to public funding for transportation and specifically in the State of California.

Speaker 2

As we said throughout 2023, we believe the level of federal and state funding throughout our geographies has created a market that we have not seen since the short lived housing bubble of the mid-2000s. This strong public market is complemented by a private market in which various industries are increasing investment in their infrastructure. Together, this benefits the civil construction industry and Granite. We believe that the robust level of funding will continue to present opportunities for revenue growth for years into the future. In California, our largest market, transportation funding has translated high levels of project awards and record cap.

Speaker 2

Within the California state transportation budget, there are 2 areas that most correlate to future bidding opportunities for Granite. Capital outlay projects and local assistance expenditure allocations. Capital outlay projects are primarily Caltrans projects, whereas local assistance expenditure allocations are funding provided to local municipalities for transportation projects. Actual and estimated allocations for the previous and current fiscal years, which ended June 2023 and will end in June 2024 respectively, show a consistent allocation level for these accounts at $8,300,000,000 $8,500,000,000 respectively. This level of funding resulted in a 38% increase in Caltrans project awards during calendar year 2023 compared to 2022.

Speaker 2

The proposed budget for the fiscal year ending June 2025 shows an increase in the level of transportation funding to $8,900,000,000 despite the overall budget deficit in California. This funding is supported by the transportation specific SB-one revenue and the federal infrastructure bill. We believe that these funding sources will continue to support transportation budget in California at these levels for several more years at a minimum. As a reminder, these amounts represent allocations for construction projects, which will then need to be prepared for letting, awarded and then released for construction. For example, an allocation made to a project in the current year budget may not turn into revenue for a contractor for several more years based on the time period between allocation, letting, award and construction.

Speaker 2

Moving to the construction segment, it was frustrating that our really strong 4th quarter was tempered by negative impacts on the legacy Tappan Zee and I-sixty four high rise bridge projects. Although a non cash event, we adjusted our probable claim recovery estimate on the Tappan Zee project to reflect developments in the dispute review process. This resulted in a negative impact to gross profit of $19,000,000 during the Q4. In addition, even though construction activities are now substantially complete on the I-sixty four weather related delays negatively impacted costs and 4th quarter gross profit by $14,000,000 or $7,000,000 after non controlling interest. However, it was a tremendous growth quarter for the construction segment as revenue grew by 19% year over year, driven by the record cap we carried into the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

While cap decreased sequentially from the Q3, it remained higher than the prior year by $1,100,000,000 or 24%. Even though this record cap led to significant revenue growth, we were able to win work during the quarter to replace much of this revenue burn, which is a testament to the market environment and a holiday shortened bidding quarter. Diving into our operating groups and starting with the California group. Cap increased $91,000,000 to $2,400,000,000 from the Q3 and the group enters 2024 with cap 39% higher than the prior year. With the record cap in California, the group experienced tremendous revenue growth in the Q4 of 61% year over year and has another record cap balance going into the Q1 of 2024.

Speaker 2

Also and importantly, California continues to lead the company in best value projects, which represents $1,500,000,000 or 61 percent of its total cap. This best value cap at the end of the year includes $345,000,000 added during the Q4 for a private rail facility project in the state. These collaborative delivery methods like construction manager general contractor and progressive design build better position us for success and allow us to work together to mitigate risk with the client. Larger best value projects were often separated into smaller work packages, which are then reviewed through multiple workshops, providing more opportunities to address risks in large bid build projects. In the last 15 years, we've completed or have under construction 87 best value projects.

Speaker 2

We have found that these projects are generally completed more quickly and with fewer claims. As mentioned, public funding remains elevated in the state and we see continued investment and opportunities in the private sector. We believe this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. In the Mountain Group, cap decreased slightly by $26,000,000 from the 3rd quarter, but ended 2023 30% higher year over year. The group ended the year with an impressive revenue increase of 12% year over year for the 4th quarter, led by increases in the Alaska and Utah regions.

Speaker 2

The budgeted spending in each state in the group expected to increase in 2024 with a higher level of cap, I expect the Mountain Group to continue to grow revenue cap in 2024. Finally, the Central Group. Although cap decreased during the quarter by 104,000,000 dollars the group finished with an increase of $46,000,000 year over year to $1,700,000,000 While the quantity of the Central Group's cap has remained consistent, I believe the quality has increased significantly. I expect the group to return to revenue growth and be a key contributor to our expected margin expansion in 2024. I believe that a high quality cap coupled with the macroeconomic construction market that is fueled by the IIJA puts Granite in the strongest position for growth and profitability in over a decade.

Speaker 2

Moving to the Materials segment. We completed another strong performance in the Q4. Over the last 2 years, we have taken actions across this segment in support of our 2024 gross profit margin targets of 15% to 17%. Our focus on raising prices, investing in automation, purchasing reserves, bolt on acquisitions and geographic expansion, not only gives us confidence that we will meet our financial targets, but that we will continue to sustainably grow revenue. During 2023, we added 140,000,000 tons of reserves through bolt on and geographic expansion transactions, including the materials focused Lehman and Memphis Stone acquisition.

Speaker 2

With stabilized costs, more efficient operations and consistently strong order volumes, when combined with further expected price increases, we anticipate growing segment revenue and profitability in 2024. Now, I'll turn it over to Lisa to review our financial performance for the quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Kyle. In 2023, we made significant strides in our financial performance on our path to achieving our 2024 financial targets. We finished the year strong with 4th quarter adjusted net income of $36,000,000 and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.82 For fiscal year 2023, adjusted net income improved to $140,000,000 and adjusted diluted earnings per share improved to $3.14 Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2023 increased to 7.7%, up from 6.4% in 2022. Excluding the impacts from TAP and Z and I-sixty four in 2023, our adjusted EBITDA would have been 8.9%. For the year, revenue increased $208,000,000 or 6% with the Q4 completing a strong second half of the year.

Speaker 3

In the Q4 and last 6 months of 2023, revenue increased 18% 14% respectively over the comparable periods in 2022. In 2023, we began with a weather related slow start to the year, but that changed significantly in the second half of the year, and we are poised for that growth to continue in 2024. In the construction segment, annual revenue increased $188,000,000 or 7% year over year to $3,000,000,000 aided by a strong finish to the year in the Q4 with an increase of 19% year over year. The increase in revenue for the year and the Q4 was driven by significantly higher levels of cap in the California and Mountain Groups over the prior year, resulting in 4th quarter revenue increases of 61% and 12%, respectively. Annual construction segment gross profit improved to $325,000,000 and gross profit margin of 11%, but was impacted by the Tappan Zee and I-sixty four projects.

Speaker 3

Excluding the impact of these projects, annual construction gross profit margin was 13%. In the Materials segment, annual revenue increased $20,000,000 year over year to $517,000,000 with gross profit increasing $6,000,000 to $71,000,000 and a gross profit margin of 14%. In the Q4, we continued the strong performance in this segment from the 2nd and third quarters with a gross profit margin of 16%, including the impact of newly acquired operations, which produced a gross loss of $2,000,000 due to winter seasonality and the impact of purchase accounting. The Materials segment overcame a very slow start to the year, and we are realizing the benefits of investments in the business. Another highlight was our strong cash generation in the 4th quarter, which continued from the 3rd quarter and led to cash and marketable securities of $454,000,000 at year end.

Speaker 3

After the second quarter, I mentioned that the weather delayed start to the year had impacted the timing of our cash generation and that would change in the second half of the year. That is what we saw occur in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I am pleased by the performance in the second half of the year that led to operating cash flow of 5.2 percent of revenue or $184,000,000 for the year. I expect our de risked business model to drive further increases in our operating cash flow as we target 7% of revenue in 2024. Now let's turn to our guidance in 2024.

Speaker 3

We are excited as we begin the New Year and believe we are positioned to realize the benefits from all the 2024 strategic plan. In 2024, we expect strong revenue growth to a range of $3,800,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 In the second half of twenty twenty three, we demonstrated that we have the businesses in our home markets to capitalize on the positive market environment and drive organic growth. I expect that organic growth to continue in 2024 and be supplemented by our new home market in the Southeast from Lehman and Memphis Stone. SG and A continues to be a focus across the company with an emphasis on efficiency as we grow revenue. We are taking actions to improve processes and procedures in order to leverage our resources more effectively.

Speaker 3

This will result in more efficient use of our SG and A expense in 2024 to a range of 7.5% to 8% of revenue with greater impacts in following years. In 2024, we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin range to be 9% to 11% of revenue. This range is unchanged from the target we set 2 years ago. When we set this range, we said we were going to replace legacy projects dragging down profitability with lower risk, higher margin projects. We also said we are going to obtain margin expansion through higher margins on bid day and through improved execution.

Speaker 3

We committed to invest and raise margins in our materials business, and we said we would be more efficient with our SG and A. We did what we said we were going to do in all these areas, and we believe that we will realize our margin targets as a result. In 2024, we expect to continue to invest in our business through CapEx in the range of $130,000,000 to $150,000,000 dollars This higher range is driven by strategic materials investments of approximately $50,000,000 for a new aggregate plant, reserve expansion and further automation projects as well as a project specific tunnel boring machine totaling approximately $20,000,000 Now I'll turn it back over to Kyle.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Lisa. I'll close with the following points. We finished 2023 with a strong 4th quarter to continue to build on momentum from the 3rd quarter. Our ability to drive strong organic revenue growth with higher levels of profitability than Granite has seen in many years. I'm also very happy to say that construction work and paving is substantially complete on I-sixty four.

Speaker 2

And I want to thank our team working diligently to put this project behind us. I'm also impressed not only with the end of the year cap, but the quality of the cap, with 47% of the cap being best value work in which we were selected by the owner based on our qualifications. It is truly a testament to Granite's strength in our markets, our experienced teams and the strong public and private market environment. The positive impact of the IIJA will be felt by Granite in the industry for many years as projects continue to be programmed, funded, designed, led, awarded and constructed. Our acquisition of Lehman and Memphis Stone is a transformational event for Granite.

Speaker 2

Not only does it provide Granite with a high performing materials focused business with significant aggregate positions in the area, but it also provides Granite a platform from which to expand. With our de risk business model, we are seeing the positive effects on our ability to generate cash. We saw the results of our efforts in the second half of twenty twenty three and I expect further gains in 2024. Finally, along with the significant revenue growth expected in 2024, I believe we will achieve our adjusted EBITDA margin range of 9% to 11%. Operator, I will now turn it back to you for questions.

Operator

And our first question will come from Steven Ramsey of Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, everybody. It's John calling in for Steven. Can you maybe dig into the Materials segment a little bit more, talk about organic growth next year and kind of how you expect volume and price to contribute?

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. Good morning. And so I think we'll start with the volume side of things. Certainly, as we look into 2024, from an aggregate side, I think the volumes will be pretty consistent with what we saw in 2023, which was a healthy market for us.

Speaker 2

We do see pricing on the aggregates up around 10% going to 2024. That's our expectations for the year. On the asphalt side, that's where we see a volume increase in 2024 versus 2023. And I would say most of that is going to be seen in California. And we expect pricing increases to be somewhere close to around 5% in 2024.

Speaker 4

Got you. Okay. And then just one more on the construction cap side. Is there an area or region that we can think about driving further than others or we kind of think about it broad based?

Speaker 2

I would think about it broad based. I think all of our markets are healthy. Certainly, the IIJA funds are helping contribute to that. And we spoke about that in the prepared remarks. So we got a healthy market, both on the public side and the private side that we're excited about.

Speaker 2

I mean, one of the highlights certainly was what we saw in California. We know there's been a lot of discussions around what's going on in California overall with its budget. Yet the transportation, highway infrastructure spending in California is really strong. And I think our cap really reflects that today. And so we're really excited about what we see out in the West.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thanks so much.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Brian Russo of Sidoti. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Brian.

Speaker 6

Just to follow-up good morning. Just to follow-up on California, obviously a lot of extreme weather and flooding in late January and through the month of February. I'm just wondering how that's impacting your business, etcetera, considering what occurred in the Q1 of 'twenty three?

Speaker 2

Yes. So 'twenty four, actually, being this year, January was very dry out in the West. So we're very fortunate to good weather. Our team has been busy. So we're already off to a really strong start in Q1 of this year.

Speaker 2

Last year, obviously, we had a really tough quarter weather wise. We did get some emergency work last year, but it wasn't enough to really offset the weather that we were impacted by. So this year, we are off to a better and stronger start. And 23% really kind of created a low bar, I would say, year over year. So we have that going for us from a comparison perspective.

Speaker 2

But I think our materials business is where we're going to see the impact, probably the greatest in Q1 of this year where with emergency work there last year, there wasn't a lot of gate faster than they did last year.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And just curious, could you just talk more about the water and wastewater business, your outlook there? What's the financial contribution now? I think it's just embedded in the construction segment and then the strategy as well. Yes.

Speaker 2

I mean, I think nothing has really changed for us except that we've been able to take that business, incorporate it into our construction business and create some efficiencies as part of that business. Obviously, we do a lot of repair and installation work. We work for clients and the market is strong. We'll be at the higher end of the range that we have for construction in 24 percent, 14% to 16%. So we feel really good about the opportunities there and an opportunity to continue to grow that business for us.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Dudas of Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, Lisa, Mike, Kyle.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 7

I want to follow-up on your comments or your comments in the prepared remarks about execution and the strong markets that you see across the board. How did that translate as you saw the 23 on bid day margins relative to what you've been booking in the past? And on the execution front, when you have your 13% gross margin in construction is very helpful, how that could combine to impact and help you achieve the 24 type targets relative to the better and more higher quality book of business? And is there a burn rate because of the best value practice contracts maybe a little bit more delayed or may not flow through as quickly if some of your normal brick and berm business, how that translate on the cadence through the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Mike. So I think maybe how I'll address the question is really how do we bridge between our 2023 results on margins performance and how do we get to that 14% to 16% in 2024. And I think there's a few things that they were looking at. I mean, one of you

Speaker 7

if you adjust out in

Speaker 2

Tappan Zee and the I-sixty four project, we're sitting right around 13.3%. So we're not quite up to that 14% to 16% gross profit margin that we are expecting in 2024. And I think your comment around the pipeline and projects is important, because the pipeline of projects we have in company today are much better higher quality margins type projects than we had come into 2023. So you kind of think about that pipeline of work coming through. In 'twenty three, we're still burning through some of that work we picked up in 20 21.

Speaker 2

In 'twenty two, there was a little bit more tougher market, I should say, than what we have historically seen and what we have in the last couple of years. So the pipeline has gotten stronger, margins have gotten better. I think those projects are going to really start to hit our books in 2024. So I think that's going to help. Our execution hasn't changed around what our focus is.

Speaker 2

We have our construction playbook. We're focused on operational excellence. We continue to see opportunities to get better year over year and we're focused on that. And I can tell you the market is still healthy. We talked about that.

Speaker 2

So our margins are getting better, if not pretty consistent with what we saw last year, which are really healthy margins in the market. And through the 1st month or so, we're seeing the bid volumes very consistent with what we saw last year and margins are very consistent as well and our hit rates have been strong. So we feel like we have the market, we have the work on the books today to hit those margin expectations of 14% to 16% in 24%.

Speaker 7

Appreciate that, Kyle. My follow-up is talking about your recent acquisition in the Southeast. Maybe you can look at that business characterized to what Granite's like for like business would be on the materials front? And is that an area that when you went into, you're looking towards going vertically integrating and moving into the construction phase more dramatically. Is that kind of how you're thinking about?

Speaker 7

Is that where some of your attention might be placed on some of the acquisition opportunities that may come up for you as you move through 2024 relative to what Lisa talked about in some of the targets?

Speaker 8

Well, I think when we

Speaker 2

looked at the acquisition with Lehman Roberts and then to Stone and Gravel, I look at it like we're getting back to our roots as an organization. We hadn't done a vertically integrated deal since 2,008. And it was really important for us to get back to doing the types of businesses and deals that we were comfortable with and how we grew our organization historically over time. And so if you kind of go back to 2023, we're very intentional about and supporting and strengthening our existing home markets and reinvesting in those. They were underinvested from a reserve perspective.

Speaker 2

We saw some bolt on opportunities, ways we could preserve the market position we had. And so we did that. Lehman Roberts was an opportunity for us to get outside of our existing footprint and create that real platform for growth. And as I mentioned on our last call, we're looking for really strong leadership, looking for a healthy growing market and we're looking for a really good business. And we found that with Lee and Roberts and that's going to provide that platform for us to continue to grow in the South, Southeast and where we can grow that business and really leverage the team to find other opportunities in that marketplace to grow our company.

Speaker 2

So this is a big shift for us and we're excited about it. We haven't done a vertically integrated deal since, again, it's been 15 years and so quite a while. So that was really kind of our thoughts behind the Lehman acquisition. And as we look to 2024, I think our investment thoughts are very, very similar. We're going to continue to reinvest in our existing businesses, support and strengthen, but we are looking for other opportunities like Lehman Roberts, so we can grow our business, it could be part of the platform of Lehman Roberts or find other areas that we can expand and transform our company.

Speaker 2

And I think you look at that positive cash flow that we generated in Q3 and Q4 and what we expect to 'twenty four, we're going to have the ability to do it.

Speaker 7

Okay. Kudos to Lisa on that cash flow generation. Thanks, Kyle.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Thank you, Mike.

Operator

The next question comes from Jean Ramirez of D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 5

So I'll start with a question about the projects you guys bid. So under the new discipline set for the types of jobs you guys go after, could you discuss the progress you are seeing on the larger projects under your portfolio?

Speaker 2

The progress on the larger projects? Yes. So I would say, we've been through this transformational journey as an organization for quite some time now. We really don't bid these the mega projects that we historically had bid and it caused us a lot of challenges in organization. We do pursue projects that we would call larger projects that would be in the say $150,000,000 to $250,000,000 range.

Speaker 2

But the big shift for us has been the contract method in which we do that work. So most of our larger projects now that are more complex or even longer in duration tend to be the best value type projects, because they're CMGC or progressive design build. And if you look at the pie chart that has the breakdown of our cap, around almost half of our cap now is that best value type projects. And so we've been able to deliver larger, more complex projects and very successfully under that contracting method. So it's really a very big difference, entirely different business model than what we were doing several years ago.

Speaker 2

And that's really why we're excited about our transformation. I think the other thing that's really important is these projects are also being built in markets that we know. These are home markets for us. We're not chasing work in the markets with clients that we don't understand. We don't have a really strong relationship with.

Speaker 2

And that allows us to be more successful, but it also does something really important and allows us to avoid claims. And so that's certainly something we want to get away from as an organization is having these contract claims. They're a distraction, they're a challenge and frankly, they're a drag on our cash. And so one of the things you're seeing with our new business model is, if we don't have these claims on our books, we can actually drive a lot higher operating cash flow. So in short, we're doing very well on the larger projects that we're procuring today.

Speaker 5

Great. I appreciate the other color there. Just being focused on California, could you address if you have any concerns around the budget deficit in the state and whether you're either seeing or kind of forecasting the impact projects to schedules or planning for any future work you'll be pursuing?

Speaker 2

Not at all. Yes, what we really want to make sure that everybody understood is the Caltrans III or expenditure allocations are only going up. We're excited about the opportunities we see in the State of California, certainly on the public side. If you look at the SB-1 monies that are out there, they continue to grow. And so we think California is going to be a healthy market for years to come.

Speaker 2

So yes, we don't have any concerns.

Speaker 5

Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our last question will come from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Hi. Good morning, everyone. Nice cash flow this quarter. I just wanted to ask at the EBITDA outlook that you folks outlined for 2024, what level of free cash flow conversion do you folks expect?

Speaker 8

I know it can be a wide range of outcomes, but would love to hear how you're thinking about it and a similar question for longer term as you continue to work off the prior projects? And then Lisa, can I just ask factually, where did claim recovery estimates on build receivables end the quarter? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you, Jerry. So yes, let me talk about free cash flow. Cash generation, we're excited with our cash generation for 2023. Last year, 2023, we talked about cash generation and generating positive free cash flow was really the last major area that we needed to improve upon.

Speaker 3

And so we made nice strides with that with 2023 and we see that continuing into 2024. We've intentionally changed our business model over the past 3 years with derisking the portfolio from anywhere from project procurement methods, which Kyle was talking about, to not entering into non sponsored joint ventures. So our model was really broken historically, from a risk perspective. And so we're getting to see the benefit of that, because obviously that not only impacted our bottom line, but really our ability to generate cash. And so from an EBITDA to free cash flow conversion, when we look at 2024 and as I said in my opening remarks that we're targeting OCF as a percentage of revenue of around 7%.

Speaker 3

And so with our EBITDA projections, that would be a ratio conversion of about 35% to 40% for 2024. And if we look out further, let's say, to 2026, our operating cash flow as a percentage of revenue, we'll be moving closer looking to move closer for a target of 9% to 10%, which would be a closer to a 50% conversion ratio. So that is what we're looking at from a free cash flow conversion perspective. As far as unbilled receivables, go ahead, I'm sorry.

Speaker 8

No, no, please. Yes. Thank you, Lisa.

Speaker 3

Yes. So claim recoveries, I mean, we do disclose that in our Qs and Ks, related to what we have recorded and that will be coming out later today. For unbilled receivables, we Q4 was a very strong quarter for us for reduction of unbilled receivables. Our DSO, we continue to main DSO. We do not have issues for our collections.

Speaker 3

Our 2023 Q3 and Q4 were very high activity levels, which generated very nice cash generation, obviously, in Q3 and Q4 and a big portion of that was our receivables, which isn't unusual, which is actually what we expected due to the strong second half of the year since the first half of the year was delays due to the wet weather. So, yes, making good progress. Contract assets have gone down and our contract liabilities have increased. So all of those points are moving into moving in the right direction.

Speaker 2

And that 7% target yes, the claim there isn't any claim recovery in that 7% target in 2024? Correct.

Speaker 8

Super. And can we shift gears and talk about the pricing opportunity that you're seeing in the materials business. I mean, we've seen pretty heavy M and A, particularly in California across the materials spectrum. Is there opportunity for pricing to be stronger than what you laid out, Kyle, in terms of 10% per aggregates? Is there a potential for a midyear price increase?

Speaker 8

And similar question for asphalt, given all the industry consolidation in your markets. Is there an opportunity for additional price increases over the course of the year?

Speaker 2

Perhaps. I mean, I think it's probably early too early to tell for us in that regard, but I think we still feel good about the 10% and the 5%. So I guess we'll see.

Speaker 8

Okay. And just sorry, clarification, 10% to 5%, that's the January 1 price increase that you're embedding, you're not embedding anything for mid years?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that's kind of an average. I mean every market can be a little bit different, but those are averages over the year. Okay.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Larkin

Speaker 8

for closing remarks. Okay. Well, thank

Speaker 2

you for joining the call today. As always, we want to thank all of our employees for the work they do every day. Most importantly, in 2023, we had the best safety results in Granite's history for a 2nd consecutive year. You keep raising the bar and should be proud of this achievement. Thank you again for joining the call and your interest in Granite.

Speaker 2

We look forward to speaking with you all soon.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Granite Construction Q4 2023
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