HNI Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 22, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning.

Speaker 1

My name is Dennis, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the H and I Corporation 4th Quarter and Year End Fiscal 2023 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Speaker 1

McCall. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Good morning. My name is Matt McCall. I'm Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development for HNI Corporation. Thank you for joining us to discuss our Q4 year end fiscal 2023 results.

Speaker 2

With me today are Jeff Lorenger, Chairman, President and CEO and Marshall Bridges, Senior Vice President and CFO. Copies of our financial news release and non GAAP reconciliations are posted on our website. Statements made during this call that are not strictly historical facts are forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks. Actual results could differ materially. The financial news release posted on our website includes additional factors that could affect actual results.

Speaker 2

Corporation assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements made during the call. I'm now pleased to turn the call over to Jeff Lorentz. Jeff?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Matt. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Our members continue to deliver outstanding results and had a strong finish to the year. For the Q4, non GAAP earnings per share increased 56% versus the prior year period.

Speaker 4

This was

Speaker 3

despite a 6% year over year organic revenue decline during the quarter, which was primarily driven by continued housing market weakness. Overall, 2023 was an outstanding year for HNI. During the year, we completed the largest acquisition in our company's history with the addition of Kimball International to the HNI family, delivered on our plan to improve margins without the benefit of top line support. Entering 2023, we anticipated a challenging demand year and we built a plan to deliver earnings growth in the face of these challenges. We also generated significant cash flows to strengthen our business and provide returns to shareholders.

Speaker 3

This resulted in 2023 non GAAP EPS that increased by more than 20% year over year despite an organic revenue decline. This was on top of 35% non GAAP EPS growth in the prior year. With our strong cash flow, we rapidly reduced debt following the acquisition of Kimball International and finished the year with a gross leverage ratio under 2 times. I'm extremely proud of the efforts our members put forward during the past year. Our plan delivered excellent results.

Speaker 3

And despite the uneven macro environment, we exited 2023 a fundamentally stronger company. On the call today, I will highlight 4 key topics. 1st, we delivered another quarter of significant margin expansion in workplace furnishings, and we expect continued year over year profit and margin improvement from here. 2nd, the integration and synergy capture associated with the acquisition of Kimball International are both ahead of schedule. And we now expect total associated synergies to be $10,000,000 higher than the initial projection.

Speaker 3

The addition of KII is providing significant value creation to our shareholders. 3rd, we expanded margins in residential building products despite top line pressure from ongoing housing market weakness and order trends improved during the quarter. And 4th, we strengthened our already strong balance sheet and our gross leverage ratio was back below 2x only 2 quarters following the completion of the Kimball International acquisition. Following those highlights, Marshall will review our outlook. I will conclude with some general closing comments before we open the call to your questions.

Speaker 3

Moving to the first topic, we delivered another strong quarter of significant margin expansion in workplace furnishings. When excluding KII results, 4th quarter non GAAP operating profit margin for legacy HNI workplace furnishings was 7.2%. This represents an expansion of 480 basis points year over year and was the 7th straight quarter of year over year operating margin improvement as our profit transformation initiatives continue to drive results. Looking forward, we expect continued year over year profit and margin improvement from here. As a reminder, our legacy Workplace Furnishings profit transformation plan consists of 4 primary actions.

Speaker 3

First, we are driving increased productivity. Our focus on lean, cost reduction and better efficiencies help drive our profit growth in 2023, while funding operational investments primarily in our new facility in Mexico. Looking forward, our investments will help drive outsized productivity benefits as they mature over the next couple of years and add to our continued lean efforts. 2nd, price cost improvement continues to benefit our profitability. Our pricing strength continued to support profitability in the Q4 and we expect continued net benefit in 2024 from pricing actions announced within the past 12 months.

Speaker 3

3rd, we have streamlined our cost structure. We previously announced a $30,000,000 corporate wide cost savings program. However, we far exceeded this target. And as of the end of 2023, the program's run rate savings was $50,000,000 across the corporation, with half of that total contributing to our workplace furnishings margin expansion in 2023. And finally, we continue to simplify our business as we focus our efforts on the most attractive markets.

Speaker 3

We divested Poppin, we divested our China business, and we rationalized our e commerce offering. All in, we continue to see opportunity for margin upside in workplace furnishings. I will remind you our profit transformation plan does not require volume growth. However, we continue to see encouraging trends related to future workplace furnishings demand, particularly given our unique market position. In the near term, demand remains choppy, but is stable within a range consistent with our commentary last quarter.

Speaker 3

Looking further out, we continue to see growth in the small to medium sized customer segment where we have an unmatched competitive position. Legacy SMB orders grew 6% organically year over year in Q4 and were up 8% in 2023 overall. In general, this segment has benefited from healthy dynamics. Small and midsized firms have accounted for nearly 85% of all post pandemic hiring. The segment has also benefited from population shifts to smaller secondary metros where office visits are nearly back to pre pandemic levels.

Speaker 3

We believe this segment will continue to outperform. Switching to contract, trends improved in the quarter and we are seeing encouraging signals. Orders from legacy contract customers were down 2% for the year, but were approximately flat in the Q4 on a year over year basis. The full year results are consistent with lower return to office rates in the larger markets and the lagging hiring activity by large companies I just mentioned. Encouragingly, some return to office metrics continue to tick up and have reached post pandemic highs in recent weeks.

Speaker 3

This, along with the predicted acceleration of lease expirations and the need for companies to adapt their spaces for hybrid work support a projected increase in furniture events and should bode well for contract demand patterns going forward. Orders for KII's Workplace and Health business also increased in the mid single digit pace at a mid single digit pace on a year over year basis. We continue to be encouraged by the complementary nature and attractive post pandemic positioning of KII's offering. Across all of our major workplace brands, year over year order trends were uneven during the quarter, but were strongest and grew in December. And Q1 2024 to date has seen a continuation of these trends generally positive but still choppy.

Speaker 3

Moving to my second topic, both the integration and synergy capture associated with the acquisition of Kimball International are ahead of schedule. KII added approximately $0.07 to non GAAP EPS in the quarter and delivered a strong non GAAP operating profit margin of 10.7%. In addition, we now expect to achieve total annual cost synergies of $35,000,000 This is up from previous expectations of at least $25,000,000 and the $25,000,000 run rate is now expected to be achieved in 2024. This is well ahead of the initial communicated timeline. The increase is primarily tied to higher than anticipated procurement savings.

Speaker 3

Kimball International is complementary from a product, market and cultural perspective. And the addition of its brands strengthens our workplace furnishings exposure to several important trends and markets, namely ancillary products, secondary geographies, healthcare and hospitality. Each provides new opportunities for profit growth and our confidence in the combination strategic and financial benefits continues to accelerate. My third topic is we expanded margins to near record levels in our residential building products business despite continued cyclical top line pressure. Segment non GAAP operating margin in the 4th quarter improved to more than 22%.

Speaker 3

This represents a 2 40 basis point improvement from levels reported in the year ago period as our recent cost reduction actions continued to support profitability. We delivered margin improvement despite a 13% year over year revenue decline as housing market weakness continued to pressure demand trends in the quarter. Importantly, the housing macro backdrop continued to improve in the 4th quarter, specifically as it pertains to single new family construction. Year over year single family permits and starts showed healthy growth in the 4th quarter, which supports further new construction improvement in 2024. Remodel retrofit demand remains soft, however, the declines are moderating.

Speaker 3

Overall, segment order trends improved during the quarter. 4th quarter orders were 3% below year ago levels. This represents an improvement compared to rates seen in the Q3 of minus 18% and in the first half when segment orders declined 29% year over year. Despite the near term headwinds, we are bullish on the intermediate to long term dynamics for the segment. The demand fundamentals remain strong, U.

Speaker 3

S. Housing is undersupplied, demographic trends point to robust future construction growth, and renovation activity will benefit from an aging housing stock and increased housing turnover. In addition to the solid long term market fundamentals, we have unique growth opportunities and continue to invest in the areas of category awareness, new product innovation, online capabilities, and the expansion of our wholly owned installing distributor footprint. In summary, order trends improved during the quarter and the intermediate to long term demand remain encouraging for the segment. Finally, my 4th key point from the quarter, we further strengthened our already strong balance sheet.

Speaker 3

We repaid $73,000,000 of debt in the 4th quarter and $162,000,000 in the second half of twenty twenty three. As a result, we ended the 4th quarter with $436,000,000 in total debt and a gross leverage ratio of 1.9 times. Our gross leverage ratio is back below 2 times, only 2 quarters following the acquisition of Kimball International. This speaks to the strong cash flow characteristics of our company and continues to provide us with substantial financial flexibility. Following those 22 summary comments, I will now turn the call over to Marshall to discuss our outlook for 2024.

Speaker 3

Marshall?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Jeff. Let's start with our demand outlook. We expect 2024 organic revenue to grow at a low single digit rate in both workplace furnishings and residential building products. For workplace furnishings, this outlook assumes demand conditions remain generally in line with those experienced in the second half of twenty twenty three. In residential building products, we expect growth in new construction to be partially offset by softness in remodel retrofit.

Speaker 4

Shifting to the impact of Kimball International, we expect KII to add $215,000,000 to $225,000,000 of incremental revenue to 2024 that will occur in the first half. We also expect Pimler National to be solidly accretive to earnings. From an overall earnings perspective, 2024 non GAAP EPS is expected to increase solidly year over year, primarily driven by continued margin expansion in workplace furnishings and the full year benefit of accretion from KII. For the Q1 of 2024, we expect non GAAP earnings per share to increase year over year with margin expansion and accretion from Kimball International more than offsetting macro driven top line pressure. A few details on our Q1 outlook.

Speaker 4

We expect 1st quarter Workplace Furnishings organic revenue to be down in the low single digits versus the same quarter of 2023. Although growth in our 4th quarter orders would point to modest 1st quarter top line growth in the segment, we are seeing a higher mix of project business seeking delivery after the Q1. This is a headwind for the Q1, but it does support our positive full year outlook. For the Q1, we expect Kimball International to add $125,000,000 to $130,000,000 of revenue. And in residential building products, we expect 1st quarter revenue to be down in the low to mid teens year over year.

Speaker 4

This primarily reflects the impact from unwinding the elevated backlog in the year ago period. Shifting to the balance sheet, we expect to further deleverage and improve our already strong balance sheet during 2024. Low leverage and consistent cash flow generation will provide substantial capacity for capital deployment. Our current priorities for cash deployment are reinvesting in the business, funding dividends and pursuing share buybacks and M and A opportunities. I'll now turn the call back over to Jeff.

Speaker 3

Thanks Marshall. Before we open the call to your questions, I wanted to take a moment to highlight a few of our accomplishments over the past couple of years. From a profitability perspective, for the corporation overall, our strategies have driven non GAAP earnings per share growth in excess of 60% and non GAAP operating margin expansion of more than 2 70 basis points over this 2 year period, despite a consistently turbulent and less than supportive macro backdrop. In workplace furnishing specifically, our profit transformation initiatives and the addition of KII have expanded margins more than 600 basis points and segment operating profit has grown $110,000,000 more than 7 50 percent from 2021 levels. And we expect continued year over year profit and margin improvement in coming quarters.

Speaker 3

In addition, the integration and accretion from Kimball International are ahead of schedule and our synergy expectations are now $10,000,000 higher. Our confidence in the combination of strategic and financial benefits continues to accelerate. And finally, in residential building products, we quickly adjusted our cost structure to respond to the housing reset in 2023. As a result, despite the macro driven top line pressure, our operating profit margin in the 4th quarter expanded to near record levels, while we continue to invest in our growth strategies, leading brands and operating platforms. Although the near term dynamics remain, leading indicators are improving and we are uniquely positioned to drive high margin growth as housing stabilizes.

Speaker 3

In summary, we remain committed to our core strategies of continuing to expand margins in workplace furnishings and drive long term high margin revenue growth in residential building products. I want to thank all HNI members. Our strong results in 2023 reflect their collective effort, focus and dedication to our stakeholders. We will now open the call to your questions.

Speaker 1

Your first question is from the line of Reuben Garner with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Operator

Thank you. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 4

Good morning.

Operator

Maybe to start, thanks for the color on 2024. A lot of moving pieces with Kimball, the savings there, organic growth and kind of some of the productivity and savings initiatives you had kind of carrying over from last year. Can you kind of help us put all that together, Marshall, in a bridge? I know you said earnings growth EPS growth to grow solidly in 2024. If you can kind of tell us what solidly means in Muscatine that would be helpful too?

Speaker 4

Yes. Look, Ruben, I think when we say solidly, we're expecting EPS growth in the high single digits to low teens and our objective there would be to have our 3rd consecutive year of double digit EPS growth. The 2 big drivers of that growth are the continued margin expansion in the legacy workplace furnishings, and we'll say that's roughly half of it. The other half is the continued accretion from getting a full year from the KAI. So those are the 2 major drivers.

Speaker 4

We also will see some benefit from improved profitability in residential building products.

Operator

Sorry, I was on mute. And is there any remaining savings or price cost benefits that helped you guys in 2023 to carry over at least in the 1st part of 2024?

Speaker 4

Absolutely. The major driver of the continued profit growth in legacy workplace furnishings is the productivity and price cost. That's our major profit levers there. So we are expecting those to be favorable for the year and certainly that's a little bit disproportionate to the first half as well.

Operator

Okay. And then a couple of questions on the residential building products segment. The outlook there is very encouraging, particularly given the start to the year. And I just kind of want to clarify, maybe if you could kind of break down your end market expectations within that low single digit growth framework. And just to be clear, that kind of points to a high single digit growth framework in Q2, Q3 and Q4.

Operator

Can you kind of walk us through how you get to those kind of assumptions?

Speaker 4

Yes. We're expecting new construction to be up in the mid single digits for the year. And then remodel retrofit, we're expecting to be flattish. And so that's where we get to the low single digit growth on average for the year. But you're right, Ruben, we do expect growth to improve through the year.

Speaker 4

We're going to start off a little bit slower due to that year over year comp issue that we alluded to on the call. And remodel retrofit, we do expect to get better through the year. One of the items that we're going to benefit from is we had some trade inventory destocking in 2023, which won't repeat in 2024. So as we start to anniversary that later in the year, the comps get easier and the growth will improve. And we think new construction is going to be pretty solid all year.

Speaker 4

So the change in the trajectory is really driven by remodeled retrofit getting less bad, starting to get a little better in

Operator

the back half. Okay, thanks. And I'm going to sneak one more in. On the residential segment, the margin performance in the 4th quarter, Anything kind of one time there? Obviously, a pretty big number.

Operator

Is that something we can kind of look forward going forward or you go back to your historical ways of kind of reinvesting more of that profit to generate growth?

Speaker 3

Yes, Ruben, I think there's no there's nothing extraordinary in the Q4 per se. The Q4 has always traditionally been a strong quarter for us, and usually is our highest margin quarter historically. And we were still investing in the Q4 anyway, but we're always looking to expand, but I think it'll go back probably to a normal pattern where the Q4 will remain high. I don't see any reason we can't achieve those margins down the road in the Q4.

Operator

Great. Thanks guys. Congrats on the strong close to the year and good luck in 'twenty four.

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Your next question is from the line of Greg Burns with Sidoti and Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Really nice job on the margins in the residential buildings product side of the business. As we look into next year, the firming up and revenue starts to revenue growth starts to reaccelerate there. Are these margin levels something you could sustain? Do you intend to give a little bit back to support growth?

Speaker 5

How should we think about margins on that side of the business going forward?

Speaker 4

Yes, our goal there, Greg, is to hold margins in the high teens and drive the growth that we believe is out there for the taking. And so as Jeff kind of mentioned in our prior answer, there's a seasonality to the margins in that business. 4 quarters used to be the highest. And I think for the year, we'll be in that high teens level. So I think the margins are relatively where we want them to be.

Speaker 4

They may go up or down a little bit from here, but we're really trying to drive growth. So there's nothing unusual in the Q4 number. That's right in line of where we want to be on a seasonal

Speaker 3

perspective.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then on the in the office market on the contract side of the business, are you seeing how are your conversations going with customers there? Are you seeing any pickup intent or activity there relative to maybe project pipeline or just the conversations in general that you're having with those customers? Are you getting a sense that maybe they might be more intent to spend on upgrading their offices or anything there that might get that market that part of the market moving ahead?

Speaker 3

Yes, look, that's we are seeing it stabilize a bit and we're seeing some positive signs for improvement there, Greg. I think it's still choppy. However, small project business has strengthened. Pre order metrics are encouraging, particularly with small projects, which would suggest people are starting to do not just day to day stuff, but some refreshes. I will say as an aside, we see strength in education and state and local healthcare and hospitality, those subsegments we have exposure to are all showing strength.

Speaker 3

The other thing that I think we're kind of we have our eye on and we're talking to customers about is this whole leasing dynamic with I know there's a lot of speculation out there on the CRE side of things, but we really are looking at furniture events. And what's been happening is a lot of people have been kicking the can and I think owners have been open to letting people kick the can, but that's kind of stopping now and people are having to pull a trigger. And it's whether it's moving from a B or C to an A space, it's a furniture event. So we believe in the midterm that is going to start to generate more demand in that contract space as well, because in that place to our strength and it plays to a positive outlook in that space, albeit it will be a slow grind to be my guess, but I do believe that's going to start to unlock some demand in that space.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Next question is from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. I wanted to continue that line of thought. You've got similar dynamics with leasing in the workplace side and then existing home sales slowing down repair and remodel. So maybe to focus on the existing home sales, how does that impact resi building product demand for you guys historically or maybe how you see it shaping up in the near term?

Speaker 3

Yes. That's a good question. I think, look, we need it's a similar dynamic. You are right. People remodel kind of once they move.

Speaker 3

But so that is definitely having an impact on some of the R and R business. So I think we continue to look at that space. We see upside there as things will start to unlock down the road, but it clearly has an impact. Now we have a lot of efforts focused on that space as well to drive activity. We've got some efforts in the area of digital campaigns to drive awareness of what's possible with some of our inserts and exploring possibilities of replacement for people who decided maybe to stay in place as a because they can't find a home.

Speaker 3

So we're working leverage that way as well.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. And then thinking about residential product margin target at the high teens combined with the growth you expect this year, that does seem to imply more dollars of investment into that segment for growth, yet some natural constraints on R and R as you just talked about. Curious where the investment dollars are going aside from campaigns and if that's leaning more to gaining share in new construction or if it's driving R and R amidst the slow backdrop?

Speaker 3

It's some of both. I mean, we're investing in product platforms, updating product platforms, modernizing product platforms. We've got investments in the electric category, all in addition to consumer awareness, homeowner, homebuyer awareness relative to the digital efforts that we have ongoing.

Speaker 6

Okay. And so, assuming the workplace environment of the second half stays, I guess you're saying SMB keeps outperforming contract to the same degree or is there potential that it closes the gap or widens further?

Speaker 3

Look, I mean, that's it. Our best guess at this point is it will continue to outperform by several percentage points. I don't have a reason to think it's going to accelerate or decelerate. I think it probably kind of maintains its our best assumption at this point is it's going to maintain what it's been doing the last 12 months.

Speaker 4

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Your next question is from the line of Budd Bugatch with Water Tower Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions and congratulations on an outstanding quarter. I guess the question I have is we've come from out of a couple of years of really unusual events and that impacted the typical seasonality of your earnings and revenues? Are we back to a period where we see the normal kind of earnings seasonality where it mostly gets 1 third in the first half and second 2 thirds in the second half? How do you see that, Marshall?

Speaker 4

Yes. But we absolutely believe we're back to the normal seasonality. I think the acquisition aside, we were there in 2023, but 2020 through 2022, we had abnormal seasonality. So anytime you're comparing against those years, there's some noise. But we're back to being clean now.

Speaker 4

Both 2023 2024 should follow the normal seasonal pattern, as you said, roughly 30% of the profit in the first half, 70% in the back half kind of range.

Speaker 7

And you've come out of this period stronger than you went into it. Your balance sheet is pretty good right now. What do you see going forward in terms of the longer term now after KII and the leasing events that I think Jeff alluded to accelerating maybe furniture events. Do you see anything strategically that you'd like to comment on?

Speaker 4

But we see lots of runway on the path we're on right now. We're driving profit expansion, margin expansion in workplace furnishings, driving the benefits of the integration with KII and driving top line growth in the high margin residential building product segment. So no, we're not we feel like we've got a lot of runway with what we have right now and not necessarily feeling we needed to add anything at this moment.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think that's right, Budd. I think we believe we've got a lot. Our teams are focused. We've got plow on the ground. We've got a lot of dry powder.

Speaker 3

But we are investing in the business and integrating KII and so there's but that's all good.

Speaker 7

And operationally, you're where you want to be and one other thing on that area that I was thinking about was geographically with KII, you still are, I guess, over weighted into the rural markets. As I think you alluded to Marshall, if businesses start to be a little firmer on their requirement for people to be back in the office, do you see a way to gain some strength in the more metro markets?

Speaker 3

Yes, Budd. I mean, look, we still participate there and we have a nice chunk of business there on the contract side. It's just we have some of the other stuff as well. So that's why we talked about it. We're focused on that area.

Speaker 3

It's been a big piece of our business and we do believe we're competing well for what's happening now and we'll compete well going forward. So we will benefit as that as those furniture events unlock in major metros.

Speaker 7

Okay. And last for me, anything on the cost side that you're seeing maybe a little worrisome out there? I know people have talked a lot about, at least for the residential side, what's going on in some of the canals and the waterways issues. Are you seeing anything on costs that might be a little bit concerning?

Speaker 4

For the year, Budd, we do expect to see some primarily from wages, the normal merit cycle. We are seeing a little bit of freight pressure. That is definitely an issue at the moment. And the commodities are pretty stable, even maybe a little deflationary in the 1st part of the year. And we expect to offset that inflationary pressure with price realization.

Speaker 4

So we do expect favorable price cost again in 2024, roughly speaking in the $10,000,000 range.

Speaker 7

Okay. All right. All right. Well, thank you very much and congratulations and best of luck for the balance of this year.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Budd.

Speaker 1

Your next question is a follow-up from Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Just wanted to circle back to something you just talked about Marshall with the runway of drivers helping earnings growth in 2024. How much of these carry into 2025? Clearly, there's a broad array of good things happening across both segments. So curious how you think about some of the drivers beyond the next 12 months?

Speaker 4

Yes, Stephen, we think we got a lot of runway, particularly on the productivity side of things. I think Jeff mentioned in his comments that we made some operational investments in 2023 primarily in that new facility in Mexico. And that's actually a headwind to our 2023 profitability of about $15,000,000 all the investments total, including Mexico. And as those investments mature and begin to generate a

Speaker 1

return in 'twenty five and 'twenty six and a

Speaker 4

little bit in 'twenty four, return in 2025, in 2016 and a little bit in 2024, they'll pay off in the $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 range. So that's a pretty big swing of at least $25,000,000 from where we are right now. So that's indicative of the type of runway we've got in front of us to keep driving profit growth with not a lot

Speaker 3

of help from volume. Yes, Stephen. As we said, I mean, we can continue we can continue to expand margins without volume growth. I mean, we obviously are doing everything we can to capture as much volume as we can, but we have plans in place that we're looking at margin expansion in workplace furnishings and profit growth visibility in the 2024 and 2025.

Speaker 1

And at this time, there appear to be no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Lorenger for any closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today and taking the time. Have a great day.

Speaker 1

You all for joining today's call. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
HNI Q4 2023
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