Hyatt Hotels Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 23, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Hyatt Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. All participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' remarks, we will have a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Adam Roman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and FP and A.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Please go ahead. Thank you, and welcome to Hyatt's 4th quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me on today's call are Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's President and Chief Executive Officer and Joan Bottarini, Hyatt's Chief Financial Officer. Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today will include forward looking statements under federal securities laws.

Speaker 1

These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described on our annual report on Form 10 ks, quarterly reports on Form 10 Q and other SEC filings. These risks could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward looking statements in the earnings release that we issued today, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. In addition, you can find a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures referred to in today's remarks on our website at hyatt.com under the Financial Reporting section of our Investor Relations link and in this morning's earnings release. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days.

Speaker 1

Please note that unless otherwise stated, references to our occupancy, average daily rate and RevPAR reflect comparable system wide hotels on a constant currency basis. Additionally, percentage changes disclosed during the call are on a year over year basis unless otherwise noted. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Adam. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Hyatt's Q4 and full year 2023 earnings call. Before we begin, I want to express our appreciation for your patience and understanding regarding the delay in our full earnings release and conference call. While we released several metrics on February 14 that highlight our strong performance, I want to note the Q4 marks the completion of an exceptional year highlighted by several accomplishments including the highest free cash flow in the company's history, a record pipeline and the fastest growing loyalty program in the industry. Now let's turn to our commercial trends.

Speaker 2

Demand for all customer segments remains very healthy. Leisure transient revenue increased 6% in the 4th quarter, lapping a strong quarter in 2022. As we entered high season for most resort markets in the Americas, revenue for the month of December was 21% higher than the same month in 2019. Looking at the Q1 of 2024, leisure transient pace in the Americas for resort hotels is up 1%, reflecting lower demand in Maui due to last year's wildfires. When considering the 2023 actual results increased 22% compared to 2019, we're pleased to see demand for leisure travel remains elevated even with the headwind from Maui.

Speaker 2

Additionally, pace for our ALG all inclusive properties in the Americas is up 11% to the Q1 of 2023. Group room revenue experienced impressive growth during the Q4, up 11% compared to 2022. The Hyatt sales force delivered another excellent quarter of group production, booking approximately $500,000,000 of business for all future periods for our Americas full service managed hotels, a 32% increase compared to 2022. We set a record for total group production in 2023 booking nearly $2,000,000,000 of business for all future periods, reflecting very strong demand for gatherings at our hotels. We anticipate another solid year of demand for group meetings and events with group pace for America's full service managed properties currently up 8% compared to 2023.

Speaker 2

Finally, business transient revenue continues to gain momentum, up 14% from the Q4 of 2022 and reaching 93% of 2019 levels on a global basis. As we've discussed previously, business transient has fully recovered to 2019 levels in many parts of the world, while the United States continues to improve. Looking ahead, we remain confident that Business Transient will continue to recover with 2024 corporate negotiated rates in the United States up in the high single digits compared to 2023. Turning to our loyalty program, World of Hyatt membership grew approximately 22% compared to 2022, reaching a new high of nearly 44,000,000 members. We also achieved record levels of spending within our co branded credit card portfolio in 2023.

Speaker 2

World of Hyatt program benefits are clearly differentiated from any other program in the industry and most importantly are deeply valued by our members. While many other loyalty programs have taken steps to reduce member benefits, World of Hyatt is doing the opposite. We are redefining loyalty by adding more experiences, milestones and opportunities for members to share benefits with loved ones through our expanded guest of honor benefit. During the quarter, World of Hyatt received several accolades, including best website and mobile app from J. D.

Speaker 2

Power and best loyalty program and best hotel elite status from The Points Guy. The growth of our loyalty program in turn drives higher room night penetration, making our brands even more attractive to owners, which allows us to grow our footprint and pipeline. Our world class global development team had the best year in our history, signing the most rooms ever in a single year. Our record pipeline of 127,000 rooms grew 9% compared to 2022 and represents approximately 40% of our existing rooms. The momentum around Hyatt Studios, our new upper mid scale extended stay brand has significantly exceeded our expectations.

Speaker 2

We have approximately 200 deals in various stages of negotiation, including 17 fully executed franchise agreements as of the year end 2023. The first Hyatt Studios hotel broke ground in November and is expected to open in early 2025. We also announced the strategic cooperation agreement with the Hangzhou Trade and Tourism Group and the Dragon Group to develop more than 60 hotels in China over the coming years under our select service and independent collection brands. We added nearly 10,000 rooms to our portfolio during the Q4, including the 2,500 Room Rio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which is undergoing a transformative renovation and we expect it will contribute significant franchise fees. Our inclusive collection portfolio also continues to attract new owners who benefit from our powerful operational and commercial delivery capabilities.

Speaker 2

For example, we converted 2 hotels with nearly 2,000 rooms in total in the Dominican Republic in the Q4, further expanding our Hyatt Clusive Collection portfolio in the Americas. In China, we entered into a strategic alliance with Moomian Hotels that includes 6 hotels joining our brand portfolio in the Q4. We continue to focus our attention on growth that creates greater network effect by providing our guests and customers with offerings in new markets and across more price points. This drives our loyalty membership and is compelling for prospective hotel developers and owners as we continue to lower our overall distribution costs. This benefits our shareholders because of our commitment to increasing fees per room and not just increasing our room count as this is the key driver of high quality earnings.

Speaker 2

We have several updates to share on asset sales, but first I would like to start with the Unlimited Vacation Club transaction that was included in the earnings release posted this morning. On February 14, we completed a transaction to sell 80% of our Unlimited Vacation Club business to an investor unaffiliated with Hyatt for $80,000,000 We've been working on this transaction for more than 6 months and we are very pleased to continue to manage UVC under a long term management agreement. This will ensure a seamless transition for colleagues, UVC members and hotel owners. Going forward, we will receive management and royalty fees in relation to the exclusive arrangement between Hyatt Inclusive Collection Brands and UBC. We expect management and royalty fees to exceed $60,000,000 for the remainder of 2024.

Speaker 2

We are very pleased with the outcome of this transaction as our new joint venture partner shares our commitment to the growth of UVC. Additionally, the transaction simplifies our external reporting and generates what we expect will be a growing level of fees going forward. Turning to asset sales, we closed the sale of Hyatt Regency Aruba on February 9 for gross proceeds of $240,000,000 while retaining a long term management agreement. In connection with the transaction, we provided $41,000,000 of seller financing. As of today, we realized $961,000,000 of gross proceeds from the net disposition of real estate, inclusive of Hyatt Regency Aruba at a total blended multiple of 13x.

Speaker 2

We've made meaningful progress towards our $2,000,000,000 disposition commitment and have 5 asset sales to update you on. We signed definitive purchase and sale agreements for 2 assets that aggregate to approximately $310,000,000 of expected gross proceeds. We expect to close both transactions by the middle of the year. We expect to select a buyer in the coming weeks for the asset that we noted was being marketed for sale during our last earnings call. And finally, we are also engaged in off market discussions for the sale of 2 other assets.

Speaker 2

We expect to generate total proceeds that exceed $2,000,000,000 before the end of this year if we complete each of the 5 asset sales combined with the already realized $961,000,000 of gross proceeds. We are confident we will achieve our disposition commitment at attractive valuations, while securing durable long term management and franchise agreements. In closing, beyond achieving another year of record results, I would like to highlight the consistent and successful execution of our strategy since we began our asset light evolution 6 years ago. We have made irrefutable progress toward our strategic vision and earnings evolution underscored by 3 important proof points. 1st, our asset light earnings mix increased to 76% for the full year in 2023 from 47% in 2017.

Speaker 2

And we are on path to reaching a run rate of approximately 85%. Over the past 6 years, we've realized significant proceeds from the sale of our owned hotels and reinvested these proceeds in strategic asset light acquisitions. The earnings contribution in 2023 from our acquisitions was nearly double the earnings lost from our asset dispositions, while also reducing the run rate of our capital expenditures. 2nd, we are outpacing the industry in a meaningful way, growing our system wide rooms, fee revenue, pipeline and loyalty program membership at faster rates than our largest hotel competitors. We've achieved much greater size, but not just for the sake of size.

Speaker 2

By growing with intent, we've enhanced the quality of our portfolio, expanded our brand presence in many new markets and increased our average fees per room. The number of World of Hyatt loyalty members per hotel is 30% higher than our larger hotel competitors because we have deepened the loyalty amongst our existing members while also attracting new members. While net rooms growth may grab headlines, leading the industry in growth for 7 straight years, while growing fees per room is what differentiates Hyatt and creates value for shareholders. We don't need to be the biggest in the industry to be the best because we have and we will continue to play the game differently. 3rd, free cash flow has more than doubled from $289,000,000 in 2017 to $602,000,000 in 2023 because we are a fundamentally different company.

Speaker 2

We've delivered on the commitment that we made 6 years ago to evolve our earnings profile and unlock value for shareholders. Our capital allocation framework has led to exceptional returns on our investments, while maintaining our investment grade profile and returning $2,500,000,000 of capital to shareholders. We are progressing ahead of the timeline that we laid out during our Investor Day last year and I'm excited about the year ahead. The combination of greater asset linked earnings, growth across multiple dimensions and significantly higher free cash flow is proof that our earnings evolution has been nothing short of remarkable. All stakeholders benefit from a much larger Hyatt that generates greater asset light earnings and free cash flow.

Speaker 2

To all members of the Hyatt family, I want to extend my gratitude for your remarkable to be a member of the Hyatt family, guided by our purpose to care for people so they can be their best. Joan will now provide more details on our operating results. Joan, over to you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mark. For the 4th quarter, Hyatt reported net income of $26,000,000 and diluted earnings per share of $0.25 Adjusted EBITDA was 2 $41,000,000 and net deferrals plus net finance contracts totaled $33,000,000 Excluding the impact of travel credits recorded in 2022, earnings were up 9% this quarter. We achieved a record level of total management franchise license and other fees, up 14% in the quarter compared to the Q4 of 20 22 and up an impressive 22% for the full year compared to 2022. This record breaking performance is a direct result of the continued success of our asset light transformation. Our legacy Hyatt management and franchise business once again had another strong quarter of growth.

Speaker 3

We had adjusted EBITDA of $220,000,000 and significant overall growth in fees, up 39% compared to 2019 in constant currency, highlighting the recovery in travel demand. Compared to the Q4 of 2022, Legacy Hyatt base fees and incentive fees both increased by 13%. Additionally, legacy Hyatt franchise fees this quarter increased by 17% compared to 2022. Our growth across all fee revenue streams reinforces the breadth and depth of our successful growth strategy and the quality of our asset light earnings. Results around the world were strong, led by the Asia Pacific region that contributed $48,000,000 in fees, up 51% year over year.

Speaker 3

Greater China RevPAR was up 84% from last year and up 10% from 2019. In the Americas region, fees increased 6% with RevPAR in the United States growing 3% in the quarter, driven by strong group rate. Fees in the EME region declined 3% compared to 2022 due to difficult comparisons in the Middle East from the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Doha. RevPAR in Europe increased 9% due to the strength of group and business transient demand. Moving to our owned and leased segment, adjusted for the net impact of transactions, adjusted EBITDA in the 4th quarter was up 3% compared to the Q4 of 2022 and increased 15% compared to the Q4 of 2019.

Speaker 3

Improved group revenue and sustained transient demand contributed to 5.9 percent RevPAR growth over the Q4 of 2022. Owned and leased margins in the 4th quarter remained at elevated levels to 2019, up 2.40 basis points due to a combination of higher rate growth and productivity gains. For the full year, these margins expanded by 310 basis points compared to 2019, exceeding the high end of our previously disclosed expectations. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect comparable owned and leased margins will deliver moderate expansion over 2023 for the full year, allowing us to maintain a higher run rate margin compared to pre pandemic levels. Turning to ALG, adjusted EBITDA was $21,000,000 and net deferrals plus net finance contracts totaled $33,000,000 in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 3

ALG segment adjusted EBITDA results increased 33% compared to the Q4 of 2022 when adjusted for one time travel credits totaling $23,000,000 in the Q4 of 2022 that did not repeat in 2023 and a $5,000,000 impact due to a stronger Mexican peso. Comparable net package RevPAR for ALG properties increased 9 point 2% in the Q4 and increased 13.6% for the full year of 2023 compared to the same periods in 2022. The 4th quarter benefited from improved results in Cancun with comparable net package RevPAR increasing approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2022. ALG continued to deliver exceptional results during the 2nd full year post acquisition, resulting in an effective purchase multiple of 7.5 times. Before I move on to our liquidity and outlook, I want to share the reason behind the delay of our earnings release and conference call.

Speaker 3

We simply needed additional time to complete our year end procedures around UVC deferred costs and net deferrals. Those procedures are now complete and we expect to file our 10 ks this afternoon. Our year end procedures were unrelated to the UVC transaction that Mark mentioned earlier. Now moving to liquidity. As of December 31, 2023, our total liquidity remains strong at $2,400,000,000 including approximately $1,500,000,000 in borrowing capacity on our revolving credit facility.

Speaker 3

At the end of the quarter, we reported approximately $3,000,000,000 of debt outstanding. For the full year of 2023, we returned approximately $500,000,000 to shareholders, inclusive of dividends and share repurchases. From January 1 through February 15, we've repurchased shares of Class A common stock for approximately $30,000,000 As of February 15, we had approximately $1,100,000,000 remaining under our share repurchase authorization. We remain committed to our investment grade profile and our balance sheet is strong. Before turning to our outlook, I'd like to call attention to the announcement this morning regarding our reportable segment realignment changes detailed on Page 4 of our earnings release.

Speaker 3

As a result of this realignment, we will have 3 reportable segments: management and franchising, owned and leased and distribution, starting with our Q1 2024 results in May. As part of the UVC transaction mentioned earlier, we will recognize UVC management and royalty fees in our management and franchising segment and we will no longer report net deferrals or net financed contracts. In connection with the realignment, we will now report the results of Mr. And Mrs. Smith in the Distribution segment and commission fees and SG and A will now be reported within distribution revenues and distribution expenses.

Speaker 3

We intend to publish historical financial information that reflects our new segment structure along with a revised growth model before our Q1 earnings call. We will also host a public webcast to address any questions that you may have. Now I'd like to discuss our full year 2024 outlook. The full details can be found on page 4 of our earnings release and I would also like to direct you to schedule A-twenty 2 in our earnings release, which provides a bridge from 2023 full year reported actual results to illustrative 2023 results that adjust for the sale of Hyatt Regency Aruba, the UBC transaction and the change to Mr. And Mrs.

Speaker 3

Smith revenue and expenses that I just mentioned. We believe this schedule simplifies comparisons between our 2024 outlook and 2023 historical results. We expect full year global system wide RevPAR growth between 3% 5% compared to 2023, informed by our visibility into group bookings and our confidence that business transient will continue to recover while leisure transient demand levels sustain. We anticipate higher RevPAR growth from international markets, notably Greater China, with the U. S.

Speaker 3

Near the lower end of our global outlook range. We expect net rooms growth between 5.5% and 6% and we are confident that we will see another healthy year of portfolio growth driven by both organic growth and conversions. We have added management franchise license and other fees to our 2024 outlook, which are expected in the range of $1,100,000,000 to $1,130,000,000 Adjusted SG and A is expected to be in the range of $425,000,000 to $435,000,000 excluding integration costs. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1,175,000,000 to $1,225,000,000 When considering the illustrative 2023 historical results outlined on Schedule A-twenty 2, our growth model is intact for all elements of our business except for ALG Vacations as we are lapping a record Q1 due to unusually high demand in 2023. We expect ALG vacation profits to decline approximately $20,000,000 compared to 2023, all in the Q1 and this has been incorporated into our full year outlook.

Speaker 3

For the full year 2024, we expect free cash flow in the range of $625,000,000 to $675,000,000 and capital returns to shareholders, including share repurchases and dividends between $550,000,000 to $600,000,000 The 5 asset sales that Mark mentioned are not contemplated in our full year outlook and we will update our outlook as additional asset sale transactions close. I'll conclude my prepared remarks by saying we're very pleased with our Q4 results, which we believe demonstrates our unique positioning and differentiated model. Our teams have delivered exceptional results this past year and we're all looking forward to an exciting year ahead as we continue executing our strategic vision. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn it back to our operator for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. Our first question comes from Richard Clarke from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just want to start on the UVC disposal. Just wondering whether you could tell us how much free cash flow UVC generated in 2023? And how much it's expected to generate under the new structure?

Speaker 4

And then maybe how that kind of gets us to the $100,000,000 valuation? I guess on EBITDA, it looks like it's only 2.5 times EBITDA. So why you are happy with that valuation of UBC?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Richard. First of all, I think the key elements of the transaction begin with our JV and the structure of the JV. We have a JV partner and we who are both focused on and committed to and benefit from the growth in the UVC program. And so we have a great deal of alignment with our new partner. Secondly, we have received upfront proceeds as you noted.

Speaker 2

3rd, there's an ongoing fee stream driven by net contract net cash contract revenue, both management fees and royalty fees, which by way of reminder in our Investor Day, we laid out the extraordinarily high correlation, it's over 99% correlation between the growth in the program and net rooms growth for our HIC hotels, our all inclusive hotels. And we've been growing and expect to continue to grow in the low double digits per annum. And so that gives you a sense for I think, our outlook for how the fee stream might grow over time. Finally, it simplifies our reporting with increased clarity and focus on fees cash fees actually received by Hyatt. In terms of cash flow, generally speaking, the elements of the UVC business include 3 key drivers.

Speaker 2

1 is adjusted EBITDA, which tends to be either modest or negative. The deferred net deferrals and net finance contracts. The net finance contracts reflects changes in net finance contracts, which is not cash, and the net deferrals represent cash. So if you go back and take a look at, Schedule A2 or A3, I can't remember, I think it's A2, on the earnings release, you'll be able to decipher that for yourself in 2023. Was there a second part of your question that I missed?

Speaker 4

No. I guess just I guess the only other part to it was really like how on the basis of that $80,000,000 for the 80% stake or $100,000,000

Speaker 2

Oh, I see. I understand.

Speaker 4

To that being the right value of this business.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I think the simplest way for me to help you is, first, we did receive upfront proceeds. In addition to that, we have ongoing an ongoing fee stream. I noted what our expectation is for the remainder of the year this year. And these are fees that are all cash and are in like fashion and manner to the other fees that we report as a company.

Speaker 2

And I don't know what the current if we look at those sell side analysts who cover Hyatt and apply the multiples that they have applied in the past to our fees, I think you end up somewhere in the mid teens range. You can do the math yourself in terms of how we thought about the value received or retained through the transaction.

Speaker 4

Okay. Okay. And maybe if I can just ask a quick follow-up. The partner you're working with, is UVC getting merged into a bigger loyalty program or an entity in this JV that Hyatt will somehow benefit from? Or is UVC basically staying exactly the same, but now just kind of sitting off your books?

Speaker 2

It's the latter.

Speaker 5

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Greff from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning, guys. Mark, I think I can piece it together, but I'm not sure if you actually said it as explicitly as how I'm going to ask it. But can you talk about the motivation and the strategic rationale for selling a majority interest in UVC? I mean, I see the subsequent benefits from it that you talked about and obviously we agree and the market agrees today obviously, but that would be helpful to kind of just hear that from you.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think 1st and foremost, we thank you for the question, Joe. We wanted to we have tried tremendously and I think achieved a lot in helping to explain the mechanics of the business and how you can think about the value of the business. I think what's missed in the conversation constantly is the integration and the vertical integration of our model versus how other companies are operating all inclusive resorts or resorts period. It is an integrated model and that's why a long term management arrangement where we continue to manage the platform and where it's exclusive to our all inclusive brands are key elements of the structure of the deal.

Speaker 2

With that being able to secure that and being able to render the actual cash generated for Hyatt every year in a very simplified way through fees, we believe has the benefit of simplifying this tremendously and really eliminating any potential confusions. No matter how much progress I think we made with a lot of people and understanding it, there really remained some measure of confusion and frankly extra work and we're trying to simplify your lives too as well as our shareholders' lives. And I think finally, we created a deal where our partner and we are 100% aligned on the growth of the program. We have great visibility to what that growth is likely to be because we have a pipeline, which has a several year run rate associated with it. So and we showed there's a great chart in the Investor Day deck that shows the correlation between new members and new rooms added to the HIC portfolio.

Speaker 2

And so we think we're set up for success going forward with a simplified structure with continued control over the management and vertical integration in relation to the business. So, those are all compelling reasons.

Speaker 7

Great.

Speaker 6

And thank you for that. And moving on to asset dispositions, you laid out these additional assets that could net you another $750,000,000 gross proceeds. How at this point are you thinking about the use of those proceeds? And whether that's just it allows you to do more capital return or are there things out there that are more fee generative and brand related that you can purchase?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think, Joe, we're continuing to pursue many different flavors of expansion. Our ability to convert properties and even groups of properties this past year was at an all time high for us, represented over 50% of our total gross room openings in the year. And it was across our brand portfolio. Interestingly, our destination by Hyatt brand represented at the Rio, the JDV brand represented in the Moomin deal.

Speaker 2

And so our collection brands are continuing to attract and garner a lot of attention. I would also add that hard brand conversions have also occurred over the course of the year. And so we are looking at and experiencing an increase in opportunities that don't look like traditional acquisitions. They look like portfolio transactions in which we are affiliating EVO through management or franchising a group of hotels. And so we will make investments in some of those, but they will not look like very large ticket, big scale acquisitions of large platforms that will look like relatively smaller investments in either smaller brands or management platforms or other kinds of capital deployment to secure and facilitate some of these portfolio transactions.

Speaker 2

In many cases, they require capital expenditures in order to bring them up to high standards. And that's typically where the application of capital is applied. Therefore, we find it inconceivable that if we do execute against all of the dispositions that we talked about that we would not increase our return of capital through share repurchases, especially given how undervalued the company has been for an extended period of time.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning, everyone. And just wanted to say from the accounting perspective at least, thank you for finding the solution for UVC. I just think it simplifies everybody's lives a little bit. So my first question would be then to kind of go back to some of the Analyst Day targets a little bit, Mark. And if we just look at a couple of the KPIs you gave, both your RevPAR outlook and your net unit growth outlook, they're both a little below the ranges provided back then.

Speaker 7

And probably the investor group is a little bit more focused on the rooms growth side. But maybe you could call out what some of the differentials are or what could move you back to within the ranges you provided back then, just so we can get a sense of what's changed at the margin?

Speaker 3

Sure, Sean. I'll start with the res par target and maybe Mark will comment on the net rooms growth. At Investor Day, when we had provided the 3% to 7%, our current expectation at the time for 2023 was 12% to 16% for 2023. We ended up in 2023 at 17%. So that was a full 300 basis point above the midpoint of our range.

Speaker 3

So the acceleration that we saw over the course of last year certainly factors into our 2024 outlook. Now visibility that we have now, we mentioned the pace going into 2024, which is healthy for group. We also mentioned that the shorter term visibility into leisure is also very strong and encouraging into our resorts. Mark mentioned the one exception we have with Maui, which is short term. So we feel like the 3% to 5% is a very solid outlook for this year and there could be some room to improve and we'll update you as the year progresses.

Speaker 2

And on the net rooms growth side, as I mentioned in 2023, we had a very outsized amount of conversions. We do think that 20 24 will include an elevated level of conversions not at the level that we experienced in 2023. We are our outlook really represents things that we have some visibility to, as opposed to a plug number with respect to a guess. If 2024 unfolds the way that we experienced the marketplace in 2023, any incremental both portfolio deals and or conversions would be incremental to our current outlook. And so I guess what I would tell you is, we are trying to stick to things that we have high confidence in providing our outlook.

Speaker 2

But if you ask my overlay on my judgment, I would say, the marketplace feels the same. And I think we will likely see the same at least for the first half of the year. And we do have a number of things that we are working on that could actually pan out into incremental rooms growth. So I guess what I would say, it's a matter of confidence interval rather than belief in sorry, confidence interval in visibility, as opposed to a change in our fundamental belief about what our run rate growth rate will be going forward. And this is at a time when our new starts remain much lower than they were prior to the time that well, pre pandemic, I guess, and prior to the time that interest rates increased.

Speaker 2

You're seeing, I think very limited upper upscale and luxury starts or construction underway. You're seeing also limited more limited start construction starts in upscale and upper mid scale. The one caveat to that and the one counterbalance to that is the CMBS market is alive and well. Availability is high, spreads are narrow. And so we're seeing CMBS deals get done both large single asset deals, but also portfolios.

Speaker 2

So that's really, one thing that's sort of bridging us, to a point where the banks actually start to get back involved. The only place that we see banks actively involved right now has to do with relatively smaller deals, our Hyatt Studios developments. Those developers are leaning on community and local bank and sometimes small regional bank relationships in order to get deals financed. So we think that that access to capital, that form of access to capital and the quality of our developers for Hyatt Studios will allow us to see more and more Hyatt Studios starts, relative to upscale or upper upscale.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to touch on the asset sales a little bit. On the side that you need to get done, should we expect further seller financing? And maybe could you talk about the puts and takes of the interest rate environment as it relates to that?

Speaker 2

Sure. First of all, we I just want to briefly state that we have a very long experience in providing seller financing. It dates back in my tenure to 2,008 when we provided senior financing for the recapitalization and sale of the Hyatt Regency Waikiki, which turned out to be a fantastic outcome because we saved that property as part of our chain, but also secured a very long term management agreement, got repaid in full. Went to sleep every night knowing that I would be thrilled, not just okay with, but thrilled to own the property at the loan to value at which we had made that loan. And that's really the way we think about seller financing.

Speaker 2

We are structuring our loaner or any seller financings that we've done to be at a loan to value level that we are 100% prepared to own the whole property and would be happy to do so if it ever came to that. And with respect to the environment, there's no question that capital availability is an issue. And so we have obviously in this case and we will likely find ourselves in a situation in which we are providing additional seller financing as we move through this year. What is also true is if you go back and study deals, not there are not that many deals in asset single asset transactions that have occurred in truly distressed environments. But those that were able to get done were at a time when capital availability was low, not necessarily distressed operating wise, but maybe in the capital markets.

Speaker 2

They've all proven to be fantastic investments. We have some personal experience with this at Hyatt, but also if you look across the industry, those deals tend to have great results. And yes, interest rates are cyclical. Of course, we can't tell what the interest rate cuts will yield in terms of where in the cycle we happen to be. But we do expect refinancings to be very attractive well before maturity dates for the kinds of financings that we're providing.

Speaker 2

So we don't expect to have this capital out for very long. And I think it just provides the right kind of bridge, if you will. The other thing is, it's a small portion of the capital stack. We're not advancing 60% of the purchase price or anything like that. They tend to be a small proportion, maybe in the teens or 20% of the total purchase price.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks. And just for my follow-up, I want to make sure I'm kind of understanding the UVC pieces just to be clear, right? So you're going to I mean, the $60,000,000 in fees that you talked about getting, for 2024, that will come in the form of EBITDA and that would be a fee stream, right? And then it's basically just the $160,000,000 more or less of deferrals that you had in 2023 or coming out, we're not going to see those.

Speaker 5

Is that kind of the easiest way to think about it?

Speaker 3

Dan, I would, in my prepared remarks, I referenced a table and schedule in our earnings release. It's A22. It's super helpful to reference that schedule as a baseline for 2023 because what we've done there is we have illustrated the transaction both UVC and Aruba and then also this reclass that we undertook for Mr. And Mrs. Smith.

Speaker 3

So that baseline there that is reported in our earnings release this morning is a great reference to understand the line items that are impacted by those three things.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks so much.

Speaker 6

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 4

Good morning.

Speaker 8

Mark and Stone, regarding the Aruba sale, is that 2023 EBITDA sort of a fair comparison to think about what a multiple would be? Was there anything unusual in that? And then any large requirements for CapEx on that property also help us to think about sort of the all in multiple MS sale?

Speaker 2

Yes. So first thing I'm going to do is do what Joan just did, which is refer you to A-twenty 2. And in that schedule, there are extensive footnotes from which you will be able to pretty clearly see what the property level earnings were in 2023 because we have created a pro form a illustrative pro form a for in that schedule. Yes, it is the property sold at a multiple significantly below where have been selling properties, there are 2 key factors. The first is it's a leasehold, not a freehold.

Speaker 2

And the second is that there are some local market factors that we have we and the buyer have very high visibility to that will create a headwind with respect to earnings prospectively that will apply a couple of years from now. And that is fully accounted for in the valuation. Taking those factors into account, we're thrilled with the outcome of this transaction and feel like it was a very good value. The final thing I'll say is I made a comment, probably a year and a half ago that the thing that a lot of people were focusing on was the elevation of cap rates. And what I explained at that time was the other thing that's going up that people don't add to that sound bite is earnings.

Speaker 2

So as cap rates rise and earnings rise, the total proceeds that one receives upon disposition stay the same or increase depending on the growth rate of earnings. So if you ask me going all the way back to 2017 or even prior to that, how we have been looking at the valuation of Aruba, we've received proceeds equivalent to what we thought the asset was worth. And that's the result of much higher earnings at a lower multiple. But in terms of cash value to the company, we've absolutely achieved what we believe is a very fair value for the asset.

Speaker 3

One of the things we've consistently disclosed too, Patrick, is that when we have disclosed the multiples, it does not include the fee base, the long term fee base that we retain as a result of all of these sales. So that is in addition to the asset sale itself is the retention of those contracts. And in every single asset that we've sold, we have retained a long term management or franchise contract.

Speaker 2

And those have significant run rate value.

Speaker 8

And then a follow-up question. Mark, I apologize, perhaps you mentioned this in the prepared remarks. Last quarter, you gave some statistics on booking pace for the ALG Resorts. I'm wondering if you can give us some fresh color on how booking pace looks for 2Q? And then, any initial indications on that leisure travel for the summer?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So, I think we mentioned that the pace for ALG properties in the Q1 is up 11. Percent. And the Q2 is developing well. I will be reluctant to give you a number at this point.

Speaker 2

It's a little early, because the base is still building at this point, but definitely positive. Where exactly we end up, I can't say at point, but I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing so far. A couple of things that I would just provide as context. The first is there's significantly more lift into Cancun this year than there was last year. And secondly, airfares are down.

Speaker 2

So the total package costs are maintaining. There's just a relatively higher proportion of that that's going to hotels than it is to airlines, let's say. So that's by virtue of airlines really trying to maintain market share into one of the hottest destinations for leisure travel. And so and by the way, they're down from levels last year that were unusually high. They were there was a bubble, I would say.

Speaker 2

One reference point that we looked up and had referenced to in the Q3 of last year was, the rates on average from Houston to Cancun went from just under $400 to over $7.50 and that's now readjusted back to a more normalized level. So the extra lift is positive. It is still true though that we are lapping a very unusual demand period last year in Q1 and that's why we've got this $20,000,000 headwind that Joan referenced in ALG Vacations.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks. I could ask you more UVC accounting questions, but we'll take that offline. Just on this journey to simplification, which I guess the sale of UVC now fits, What are the other 1, 2, 3 initiatives that you're working on to further simplify your financial reporting?

Speaker 3

Sure. So Duane, yes, simplification is absolutely what we believe, we will be demonstrating here in 2024. When a couple of things. So you mentioned UVC and, the capture of those economics now in fees, no more disclosures around net deferrals and net finance contracts. We've also realigned our segments, which I went through in some detail in my prepared remarks and there's also more detail in our release this morning.

Speaker 3

And importantly, that realignment is really how strategically we're looking at the business. We have a much greater fee based results, and that's demonstrated by our mix that we disclosed this morning of 76%. And so now we'll have the managed and franchised business in one segment, and we're also providing an outlook for our managed and franchised fee growth into 2024. So adding all of those elements up really simplifying the results this year and the outlook this year and the ability to model Hyatt. We've mentioned now the schedule A-twenty 2, I think it will be super helpful to model this year.

Speaker 3

And I'll just add on, when you compare that to the midpoints that we've provided in our outlook that we are still following our growth model for fees, net rooms growth, our owned performance. The only exception this year will be the vacations business and that headwind that we described. So when you apply the growth model to the baseline that we've provided on A22, you'll see that we're growing core growth on our adjusted EBITDA by 11% this year. We will be as I mentioned, we will be sharing with you this segment realignment prior to the Q1 earnings release and we will include a few simplifications to the growth model as well as you can now look at the different segments with a different view of clarity. So we're excited for that and look forward to seeing that release when we actually have that call with all of you.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thanks. And then just for my follow-up, you did provide some good pipeline detail in the release. Can you expand on ALG specifically, ALGs versus new build? And any comment on the typical time frame from signing to opening with ALG Resorts versus a kind of conversion?

Speaker 2

Sure. We with these openings that I mentioned in the Q4, the actual total net rooms growth for ALG is running something like in the high teens at the moment, but that does include some conversions that I mentioned, the 2,000 rooms into Dominican Republic. The core, excuse me, pipeline is all new build. We are working on additional deals like we experienced in the Dominican Republic, both in Europe and in the Americas. So I would say, we have said in the past and I would continue to maintain that I think the core growth for the ALG portfolio will likely be in the 10% range, plus or minus, a small amount.

Speaker 2

But generally speaking, I think that's a fair way to think about it. And there are it's punctuated by episodic portfolio deals and other conversions. I didn't expect when we bought ALG, I did not expect that we would see so much conversion activity as a possibility, but we are now starting to see that for various reasons that I've covered in prior earnings calls, but we remain encouraged about that.

Speaker 9

Okay. Appreciate the thoughts.

Operator

Our last question today will come from Michael Bellisario from Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Two more ALG questions for you. First, now that you've sold UVC, is there any opportunity or playing out for ALG EBITDA, especially relative to the comments last quarter that 2023 should be a good base year to grow from? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure, Michael. The ALG vacations headwind in the Q1, we had an exceptional year Q1 in 2023. And so that is it's really

Operator

out of

Speaker 3

the ordinary growth that we saw in the Q1. As you look across the full year, we expect that the remaining three quarters of the year will be consistent with 2023.

Speaker 2

And with respect to ALG Vacations, the business has grown in strength and grown overall in its capabilities. We've invested heavily in technology. The market share it maintains is high, but it continues to grow. And the discovery that we are now in the midst of to unlock additional value add opportunities for legacy Hyatt properties is incremental value that we think we can extract from this amazing platform. So we have no plans at this point to do anything different with ALGV.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks.

Speaker 9

Just

Speaker 7

one quick clarification, Joe, in your comments about 2Q to 4Q. Is that for the vacations business or ALG EBITDA overall?

Speaker 3

It's for the vacations business. We've given some insight into the transaction change for UVC and the model will hold true for fees Within the guidance for fees includes the UVC and also the management business.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Welcome.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Hyatt Hotels Q4 2023
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